UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama (11/1/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Steve Garcia vs. David Onama
Fight Odds: Garcia -128, Onama +109
Odds to end ITD: -700
DraftKings Salaries: Garcia 8.3k, Onama 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
Our main event this weekend is a fun action fight between Steve Garcia and David Onama.
Garcia has rattled off six consecutive wins, which includes five wins by knockout, but he’s coming off an impressive decision victory against Calvin Kattar in July.
Despite being billed as a knockout artist, I thought his performance against Kattar was one of his best. Garcia showed composure, and fought at a high enough rate to pressure Kattar and do some damage.
Prior to that win, I was pretty skeptical that he could have success in extended fights. Garcia has an 18-5 professional record but 14 of those wins have come by knockout, and he hadn’t won a decision since 2018.
Additionally, a lot of his fights were chaotic, and although Garcia was getting his hand raised often, he’d been knocked down a bunch of times as well.
Despite this win, I’m still not completely sold on Garcia. He has a decent range game with his kicks out of the Southpaw stance, and he’s a dangerous striker in general with knockout ability. His metrics are clearly strong, landing 5.18 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.20, but they come from small samples with quick knockouts usually so it’s tough to trust.
What still has me bothered is that Garcia has been knocked down five times in the UFC, including 2x by Maheshate, 2x by Ontiveros and 1x by Nuerdanbieke. I would classify each of those three opponents as bad fighters, and my assumption is that when pushed, Garcia will be hurt again.
In total, Garcia is a legit knockout artist and I loved his most recent performance which gives me hope for his future round-winning abilities. But he still profiles as a kill or be killed type to a degree and I’m far from convinced he can beat the top fighters in this division with any consistency.
Next up is David Onama, who has been in a lot of chaotic fights himself and sets up what could be a super exciting matchup against Garcia for as long as it lasts.
Onama is 6-2 in the UFC with three wins inside the distance, though his three most recent wins have all come by decision.
Onama was fairly green when he entered the UFC but got immediately thrown to the wolves in a high-paced matchup against Mason Jones, where Jones got the nod, but Onama put up a hell of a fight.
Onama then rattled off three finishes in a span of four fights, only losing to Nate Landwehr in that span where he death gassed and nearly got finished himself. Now we have his three most recent decision wins against Jonathan Pearce, Roberto Romero and Giga Chikadze.
I think what makes it difficult to analyze Onama is that all of his fights are different. Occasionally he will wrestle, and he lands 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes. Occasionally he’s forced to defend a bunch of takedowns, though he’s not outstanding there with a 52 percent defensive rate, he can scramble up well.
Occasionally he’ll be in brawls, where his power shines through, but we’ve also seen him hurt at times. His cardio looks great in some spots, and he’s gotten super tired in other spots.
Onama lands 5.24 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 4.73 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate. He has a lot of raw athleticism and physicality, and he’s showing better round winning tools lately which includes mixing in his takedowns.
I don’t think Onama is the type to casually outstrike you from distance though. He’s much more likely to be in action scraps where he’s dishing out damage and taking some in return.
I wouldn’t rely on wrestling from either side of his game, but he’s shown a decent enough scrambling ability that I think he can neutralize that area against most opponents, and perhaps have an advantage against some.
In this matchup against Garcia, I think Garcia is a little better technically from distance. I like his kicking game and I definitely think he can land on Onama. Garcia winning with an early knockout, or winning some competitive striking rounds is very much on the table.
Onama feels very live to hurt and break Garcia as well though. I’m less sure he can dictate the distance exchanges here, but if he forces a brawl, that absolutely puts him in play to land as many shots as Garcia and hurt him.
Of the two, I think Onama is more likely to wrestle as well, though Garcia is defending at 88 percent. It’s tough to rely on the top game from either side, though I could see both landing a small number of takedowns in theory. I’d give Onama a bigger edge there given his recent offensive wrestling success.
I don’t think this is an easy fight to cap. I’ve been far lower on Garcia than the public, but his most recent fight does give me more pause. Onama has fought more legitimate competition and been tested in more ways, and I also like his offensive upside more than Garcia.
My best guess is that although Garcia has a better chance to score an early knockout, Onama has a better chance to win in a brawl, and I think that’s what he will try to create. Garcia has barely been hit in the UFC, and when he gets pushed, he more often struggles.
I suppose I will lean slightly toward Onama surviving some early moments and coming back to hurt Garcia and get a TKO stoppage himself. But a lot of outcomes are on the table, including an early Garcia TKO and possibly a clean Garcia striking decision as well.
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On DraftKings, this is obviously a strong fight to target and especially so for finishing equity, as the fight is lined -700 to end inside the distance.
I do think an extended fight is on the table though, and there’s a ton of variance in striking exchanges. There’s also variance in how this fight will look, while I do think there’s a chance they go to war early, knowing it’s a five-round affair could slow the pace down for each fighter.
I’m also not certain about the wrestling equity on either side and neither fighter will project for much. So despite there being a strong chance the fight ends early, an extended fight would scare me for fantasy purposes given that we could only see a moderate striking pace and few extra-curriculars.
At 8.3k and 7.9k respectively though, both Garcia and Onama will rate out well and it makes sense to target this fight moderately. The winner will project for a solid floor/ceiling and will still be likely to exceed value and contend for the optimal at their respective prices.
Garcia is -105 to win ITD and I would expect him to be more popular. He’s scored 74, 110, 108, 95 and 94 in his last five wins and could easily finish with a similar result in a win here. I think there’s a tiny bit of bust risk in an extended fight but it wouldn’t be enough for me to get off him at a high percentage.
Onama is +135 to win ITD which is still strong, and he’s scored 80, 106, 84, 113, and 100 in his recent wins, and I think he has a bit more upside than Garcia, but may be slightly less likely to win by quick KO.
The easiest call here is to split your action. You can ignore the matchup analysis and simply look at the fact that this is a super competitive fight on paper, with a heavy ITD line and 50% shot to end in less than 1.5 rounds.
I think I’d lean toward Onama if forced to choose, but it wouldn’t be a heavy lean and prioritizing Garcia outright would be a fine strategy as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Onama by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija
Fight Odds: Delija -119, Cortes-Acosta +102
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Cortes-Acosta 8.2k, Delija 8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season who’d gotten a bit slowed rolled in the UFC, but has proven himself as a winner where he’s now beginning to enter the upper ranks of the division – he’s 7-2 in the UFC and 14-2 as a pro. Ante Delija’s a long time veteran who gained more prominence in the PFL promotion over the last five years and is a former champion. He was actually slated to debut in the UFC back in 2020 but they couldn’t come to a contractual agreement. But he made good on his official debut back in September – he’s 26-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Acosta is a good-sized heavyweight standing 6’4” with a 78” reach who comes from a boxing background.
He had six pro fights as a boxer where he went 3-3, being KO’d in two of the losses but I don’t think it’s too much to write home about. In MMA, his boxing background shows through as he’s not much of a kicker but has a snappy jab, and he likes to work behind and will flurry in with shots.
He hasn’t always been this “pace” machine, but we have seen him be higher volume in many extended contests. He landed 73 significant strikes against Vanderaa, but then proceeded to land 147 significant strikes on Sherman – granted Sherman is always available but he still threw 278 which is very sound generally but especially by heavyweight standards. He also outstruck De Lima 79 to 56 at distance in his first UFC loss.
He’s shown some power components with six of his 14 pro wins coming via KO/TKO, primarily from his right hand which we saw recently against Brzeski and Spann – but I still don’t fancy him as a “gigantic” hitter by heavyweight standards considering the two guys he’s KO’d in the UFC have been historically fragile.
Defensively, he’s okay with his metrics sitting right around the divisional average at distance.
However, I have seen him take some big shots, so he’s shown to be durable historically – although he’s gotten buckled on a few different occasions and more specifically in his last couple fights with Spivac and Pavlovich – while taking a round from Pavlovich and competing, it was ultimately the bigger shots coming from Pavlovich in the latter rounds.
De Lima also chewed his legs up good where he once again was not checking them – did put on a good poker face though.
Overall, Acosta is a good boxer who can also fight 15 minutes at a reasonable pace, which is something that can’t be said for a lot of heavyweights. I anticipate him to have continued striking success against the lower-mid tiers of the division but I am curious to see how he fairs on the feet going forward in fighting better talents now that he’s in the top 15.
Delija’s a Croatian national that’s spent some time under Mirko Cro Crop in the more distant past.
He’s a big boy standing 6’5” with a 79” reach and takes a brooding/brawling approach.
He likes to stalk his opponents although he’s not a volume machine per say where he more so waits until he can really corner guys and then he’ll uncork bombs on them.
So, he’s not the most technically proficient guy but he is super dangerous in those barrages, repping 12 pro wins via KO/TKO and has also hurt other opponents in fights he wasn’t able to finish.
Defensively, he’s not very good as his head doesn’t move off the center line much where he’s been susceptible to the jab from the outside and conversely, he’s ran into some bigger issues when opponents can put him on the back foot and let go on him.
However, he’s only really been conventionally KO’d once which was the first matchup against Cappelozza where he got clipped early – he broke his leg against Tybura in the first fight and had some injury in the Moldavsky KO loss more recently prior to the finish.
Overall, Delija’s got some “live by the sword, die by the sword” elements to his game which is going to produce continued volatility in the stand up of his fights going forward. I also think he’ll struggle with higher volume/tactical fighters at the UFC level.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys will be at relative size parity so not much to report there. The striking dynamic is interesting because I can see both guy’s styles giving issues to the other. The aspects that favor Delija are power as the bigger pure hitter but optics as well as he’s usually consistent to take the front foot in his fights. That said, Acosta is the more durable fighter of the two who has shown he can fight effectively off the back foot – I’d also give a volume advantage to Acosta. Clinching probably goes to Delija.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Given the boxing base of Acosta, he’s not a guy that’s coming out and shooting TDs really.
He will go to the clinch though and look to do some work there. He was in top position once regionally but it was off a failed TDA from an opponent where he looked fine and landed some GNP.
But he showed great fight IQ against Despaigne going to the wrestling where he landed three TDs, racking up nearly 10 minutes of control time – a tad embarrassing he couldn’t finish from the positions he got into but nonetheless, a good performance.
He does have one submission win on his record, but it was a kimura from guard where he actually snapped the guy’s arm – I largely feel that was a product of the guy not knowing how to defend a basic armlock though.
Defensively, I’ve seen him taken down in multiple fights.
The first being the one he landed the submission and the second being against Peterson where he did drop the first two rounds via wrestling – however he was able to eventually work up on Peterson who does come from a collegiate background – Peterson also gassed and abandoned the TD.
De Lima went 3/7 while racking up five minutes of control which was a contributing factor in Acosta dropping that decision – he did work up in the fight though. More recently, he got taken down twice by Spivac but worked up relatively quickly on both instances and stuffed four other shots – largely impressive considering the ground success Spivac’s had thus far in the UFC.
In general, I think his TDD is actually decent for a base boxer, but he was also taken down in the 1st round by Sherman who hadn’t taken anyone down in the UFC prior dating to 2016 – granted Sherman didn’t do anything with it but that is still alarming from some perspective.
We haven’t really had to see him defensively grapple though so that’s still largely a question mark with him – he more so just turtles to get up which is concerning in one sense but giving up the back at heavyweight honestly isn’t the worst get up strategy in the world considering the size of most guys and that most aren’t accomplished back takers or submission artists.
Overall, I’d still classify the ground as more of a weakness for Acosta just based on the smaller sample we have so far but he’s not lost on the floor – you’re just not going to get much offensive upside from him (in a vacuum) outside of clinching scenarios.
I’m unsure of Delija’s grappling background but I believe he’s done some Judo in the past.
In addition to his pressure striking style, he’s looked to wrestle in a lot of his fights as well where he’s found varying degrees of success.
He’s got quick entries to double legs but the issue is that he can shoot from far out at times and not set up his shots with strikes, so they can be telegraphed and defended by more competent opponents. But he’s also shown some ability from the body lock against the fence to drag guys down or just cage push.
When on top, we’ve seen a bit all over the board with him as he’s been really aggressive with GNP in certain outings but more lay and pray in others.
He reps 7 wins via submission but they all came earlier on in his career and against a low tier of competition – he hasn’t shown much threat in that department in recent years.
Defensively, I’d say his TDD is above average but not great.
He’s shown the ability to win underhook battles but has gotten taken down against the fence here and there.
When on the bottom, he can give up some minutes and dominant positions but has also shown the ability to reverse and work up as well. He’s been submitted twice but again they came earlier on in his pro career 10+ years ago.
In totality, the ground has been more of a positive than a negative for Delija where he’s definitely capable of grinding guys out or smashing from top positions but there have been points of concern defensively.
How it plays out: This is where I’d give the advantage to Delija as the better wrestler of the two generally, but who’s also just been more proactive with it. That said, Acosta is stuffing TDs at 71% which is pretty solid at heavyweight and he’s ultimately bested base wrestlers before so while I do think Delija is capable of landing TDs, I’m less certain he’ll be able to keep Acosta down for longer stretches – specifically because a lot of Delija TDs come against the fence and Acosta’s done better there – if Delija gets him down in the open mat though, that could spell bigger issues for Acosta.
Interesting scrap. Both guys are getting relatively quick turnarounds having just fought a couple months back. I don’t have a passionate opinion because I do think the outside boxing and activity of Acosta is going to provide issues to Delija but I do like Delija pressure optics and wrestling upside. Close fight. I’ll reluctantly take Delija.
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On DraftKings, what’s most notable is that this is a HW fight with a -130 line to go Over 2.5 rounds.
In an extended HW fight, I am never going to be confident that the winner will contend for the optimal and most likely, they won’t.
The other point of interest here is that Cortes-Acosta is priced at 8.2k, but the odds have swung the other direction toward Delija, who is now -119 to win at 8k. In that, we get a small value on Delija but it will be worth monitoring the ML late this week.
My view is that Cortes-Acosta is likely dependent on a knockout. He’s a decent boxer with decent volume, but Delija is pretty tough, and Cortes-Acosta is only +275 to win ITD. While he might gain extra viability if the public moves away from him with the odds drop, Cortes-Acosta feels super boom or bust this week.
I only consider him a secondary/leverage target and not one I’ll be particularly high on.
Delija at 8k will likely be the more popular fighter with the odds moving in his direction, plus the fact that he scored 106 in his UFC debut.
We were on him pretty heavily in that debut against Tybura, and I’ve noted for years how Tybura lacks durability. This is not the same matchup against Cortes-Acosta who is very comfortable on the feet, and has shown good durability.
Delija still carries some knockout equity, and his wrestling equity is an added bonus, but it doesn’t feel like he will dominate in any area. He does carry a better ITD prop at +180 and would be the preferred target on paper because of it.
If I had to choose, I probably wouldn’t want to be heavy on Delija this week either. I’m just very nervous we get an extended fight here which could kill off both sides. Mixing in some Delija makes sense for finishing equity but I’d only aim to come in near the field or a bit under.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Delija by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jeremiah Wells vs. Themba Gorimbo
Fight Odds: Gorimbo -141, Wells +121
Odds to end ITD: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Gorimbo 8.4k, Wells 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
I’m always down for a Themba Gorimbo scrap and I’m looking forward to the pace he’ll put on Jeremiah Wells.
Wells started his UFC career with three quick finishes against Warlley Alves, Blood Diamond and Court McGee, but his next three fights were far more competitive, and he’s coming off back-to-back losses to Max Griffin and Carlston Harris.
Wells is wild and aggressive, and has nine finishes on his record in 12 pro victories. But he’s just not processed enough for my liking, and I haven’t been high on him compared to the public.
On the feet, he’ll chase his opponents around swinging hammers. He’s physical and carries power, and when he lands, he definitely has knockout upside. But he’s not a striker I’d rely on to win exchanges consistently and I don’t trust his volume either.
He is a black belt in jiu-jitsu as well and showcased those skills against Blood Diamond, taking him down quickly and finding the RNC. He has four subs on his pro record. But it’s important to note that Diamond was a kickboxer and had essentially no ground game.
I do think Wells has some grappling upside but I don’t actually think he’s a great wrestler or submission artist, and I wouldn’t trust him to consistently win wrestling exchanges.
In his recent fights, Wells actually won a decision over Matthew Semelsberger in which he was dropped in multiple rounds, but landed six takedowns and swung two rounds with control time.
Against Carlston Harris, Wells took him down a few times and was cruising to a lead, before diving into an anaconda choke in round three and tapping out. Most recently, he fought to a split decision loss against Max Griffin, in a matchup where neither fighter could separate much, landing near 30 sig. strikes and a takedown a piece.
To be honest, a lot of this just confirms my prior thoughts. Wells is now landing 2.41 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 1.31 with a 48 percent defensive rate. He’s never reached 40 sig. strikes in a decision.
Although I think he has power early, I do not trust his round winning ability and he’s a semi-defensive liability too.
His grappling is OK. Wells lands 3.08 takedowns per 15 minutes and I think he does have a path to victory with top time. His defense has been OK thus far at 80 percent. But his cardio is mediocre and his submission loss wasn’t a great look.
It’s a very interesting test here against Themba Gorimbo, who I’ve always been a fan of, despite not being totally sold on his game.
What I like about Gorimbo is his grinding pace, and in his three UFC decisions, Gorimbo has landed 7, 5 and 3 takedowns to go along with 9, 10 and 11 minutes of control. He’s also willing to throw down on the feet, and lands 3.15 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 1.09 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.
Where his game gets tricky is that despite the pace, he’s just not the greatest technical fighter. His wrestling is built more upon pace and defensively, he’s still susceptible.
I had noted some poor takedown defense prior to entering the UFC, and although he’s defending at 82 percent, he was subbed by AJ Fletcher in his UFC debut and Vincente Luque last time out, and he was taken down by Takashi Sato and Ramiz Brahimaj as well.
Gorimbo also got tagged by Luque prior to diving into a submission in his last fight, so I’m sure he can be hit and hurt as well.
Essentially, Gorimbo is going to run into some trouble against the top half of the division, and especially against good, technical fighters. But he also carries potential to drown a lot of opponents with his grinding wrestling style, and he’s shown some power components on the feet as well.
As far as this matchup, I have to lean toward Gorimbo for pacing. I just trust his process far more, and over three rounds, I know he will attempt a lot of takedowns, and I’d favor his striking volume over Wells as well.
Given that Wells has poor cardio at times, and he lacks defense, Gorimbo has upside to smash here. I could see him drowning Wells on the mat or on the feet, and I think a mid-late round finish is on the table.
Conversely, I think Wells could be a real threat to Gorimbo early. Wells throws big power shots and he may be the better pure wrestler for a stretch. I could see him landing a couple of takedowns and perhaps winning a round or two with top time. Gorimbo is not the best defensive grappler so a submission is in play too.
I just trust that Gorimbo will fight his ass off for three rounds, so if he’s conscious, it’s tough for me to see him getting cleanly beaten. Wells’ takedown defense is decent on paper so I’m not convinced Gorimbo can take him down immediately anyways. But over time, my guess is that Gorimbo will wear on Wells, and once the takedowns start coming, the fight is probably his to win at that point.
To summarize, I think Wells could have success both on the feet and on the mat early, but unless he finishes Gorimbo, I think the pacing of Gorimbo will be too much, and I’ll favor him to get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, I like both sides of this matchup to a degree.
Gorimbo is my preferred side even though on paper, this is perhaps not the best matchup for him. He could still struggle to produce a lot of offense while Wells is fresh.
With that said, his three-round output has been elite, and he’s also knocked guys dead on the feet, so I’m not completely ruling out a TKO victory either. Gorimbo has scored 123, 109, 130, and 114 in his wins which is truly elite.
In this fight, Gorimbo is only +215 to win ITD but there’s still some finishing equity, and he has a path to 5+ takedowns landed as well.
I think there’s a little more bust risk in this fight for Gorimbo than his DK scores might suggest, but there are also multiple paths for him to exceed value which I like. I consider Gorimbo a strong secondary target at worst, and leaning into him a bit for his historic ceiling feels very viable as well.
Wells at 7.8k probably gets an early finish if he wins, in my mind. It’s either that or a wrestling based decision but given how Gorimbo pushes, I think Wells needs to hurt him or land a lot of takedowns to win.
Wells is actually +175 to win ITD which is strong for the price tag. Wells has also scored 105, 103, 111 and 96 in his wins, though three of those came from finishes.
Still, in a win, I would expect Wells to exceed value and possibly contend for the optimal lineup. He could be leverage against Gorimbo which would interest me even more.
I do lean toward Gorimbo in this spot outright and Wells is only a secondary target, but I like the scoring dynamics for this fight and it’s still competitively lined on paper. I wouldn’t mind being in on this fight and potentially above the market on both sides.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gorimbo by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Isaac Dulgarian vs. Yadier del Valle
Fight Odds: Dulgarian -261, Del Valle +217
Odds to end ITD: -208
DraftKings Salaries: Dulgarian 9.1k, Del Valle 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am excited to see Isaac Dulgarian return to the cage this weekend against Yadier del Valle.
Dulgarian comes from an impressive wrestling pedigree. He is one of the best high school wrestlers in the state of Kansas’ history. He was a 3-time state champion and holds the most career wins and takedowns in Kansas. He had over 1100 takedowns in his high school career and the second closest to him was 700. So yeah, this guy can wrestle his ass off. He was also a Fargo all-American in both freestyle and greco which is the most prestigious national high school wrestling tournament that there is.
Dulgarian then wrestled at a division 2 school and took 2nd in the national tournament as a true Freshman which is impressive. Given his high school credentials, I am surprised Dulgarian didn’t wrestle Division 1 as he was clearly capable. My guess is he didn’t have the grades to go Division 1 which is common (e.g., Jon Jones).
Furthermore, I couldn’t find any history on Dulgarian’s collegiate wrestling career after his Freshman year. My guess is he dropped out of school and pursued MMA, but I am not sure.
Regardless of what happened in the rest of his wrestling career, Dulgarian is surely a good wrestler and his tape shows it, as did his UFC debut against Francis Marshall. He took Marshall down and absolutely obliterated him in the first round for a TKO finish. To that point, almost all of Dulgarian’s fights had looked the exact same. He took his opponents down with complete ease and quickly finished them in the first round.
Dulgarian then faced Christian Rodriguez and lost a close fight. He took Rodriguez down in round 1 and absolutely dominated him. He was then winning the beginning of round 2, slowed down and lost the rest of the fight.
Dulgarian did slow down vs Rodriguez and his striking does look limited. However, I really do not think it was that bad of a performance. I like Dulgarian in general but actually picked Rodriguez in the matchup. So I wasn’t shocked or anything. Rodriguez is uniquely skilled to make a guy like Dulgarian slow down. Rodriguez is constantly working from bottom to ensure the top man has to use techniques and energy to hold him down. Dulgarian also didn’t get finished which was a good sign as well.
Obviously Dulgarian could have had better cardio in that matchup vs Rodriguez. However, I generally don’t think he will gas in all matchups as shown by his bounce back second round finish of Brendan Marotte. I also don’t think a ton of guys will weather the storm of Dulgarian like Rodriguez did. So I still think Dulgarian is going to have a fine career. My expectations are that he will continue to feast on any average grapplers or below-average grapplers in this division. He will struggle vs the elite guys who can keep it standing or slow him down.
Dulgarian will be taking on Yadier del Valle. Del Valle is a Cuban fighter who is 9-0 professionally. He is 29 years old. He booked his UFC ticket on the Contender Series by winning a pace based decision where he landed over 100 significant strikes and just kind of battered his opponent. Del Valle then followed up that performance with a first round RNC of Connor Matthews in his UFC debut.
Del Valle is a decent fighter. I actually think the best aspect of his game is his pace and volume striking. He is not the best striker and he actually has some bad defense. Skilled strikers will out slick him. However, del Valle is just a pace pusher and brawler standing out of the southpaw stance. He also seems very tough and has good cardio. So he can really gas pedal his opponents. I don’t think he has a ton of power but he can finish opponents with pace so he does bring an element of danger.
He is also an alright grappler. He actually has a BJJ black belt and is a brown belt in BJJ. I don’t think his takedowns are great but he is a decent back taker and has some submissions in his game. He took the back of Aswell who just had some UFC success. I don’t think he will beat a ton of guys with his grappling in the UFC but he can probably have some offensive moments or have success on the mat when opponents are tired.
Del Valle’s takedown defense looks a bit suspect. It doesn’t look horrible but I have seen him taken down and he loves jumping guillotines. He has a decent guillotine but against good fighters he will likely just end up losing position and be on his back. He also can be controlled on the mat. I do think he has a good guard so it is going to be hard to dominate him with ground-and-pound and advance position. However, he can be controlled which isn’t good.
That is why I am going to have to pick Dulgarian in this matchup. I would honestly be surprised if del Valle kept this upright early. Dulgarian’s takedowns are seriously amazing when fresh and I think he is going to take del Valle down and win the first round quite easily. Dulgarian could potentially finish del Valle early but I am kind of leaning against it as I do think del Valle can defend himself.
Del Valle could still give Dulgarian issues though. If this fight stays standing for whatever reason, Del Valle surely is more trustworthy and has better cardio, and could probably beat Dulgarian up. Furthermore, Del Valle could potentially just survive early and Dulgarian could slow down and del Valle could start having more success. So I am not completely ruling out del Valle winning here. Things could go his way.
I still really respect Dulgarian as a wrestler and this is a massive step up for del Valle as far as facing a wrestler goes. I am also confident that Dulgarian will at least get off to a great start so I will pick Dulgarian to probably build a big lead and then hang on and win.
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On DraftKings, Dulgarian could be viewed as a primary target on this slate given his grappling upside.
These types of plays don’t always work, as we saw last week with Almeida, but in his two UFC wins, Dulgarian has scored 125 and 122 DK points. He also scored 67 in a decision loss.
So it seems quite likely that Dulgarian is going to put up a bunch of points here, and probably get close to or surpass 100 points again in a victory. He is only -105 to win ITD, but a decision win could still come with 4-5 takedowns and 10+ minutes of control, which could be enough to reach 100 points as well.
There are other strong targets in this range and there’s no guarantee Dulgarian dominates from start to finish. However, at 9.1k, you can still make the argument that he carries one of the best ceilings on this slate and is still worth prioritizing.
It’s typically hard for me to get off these types, so I’ll likely aim for moderate/heavy exposure to Dulgarian myself. I assume he’ll be popular though, and there are still others worth considering nearby if you want to spread out your exposure.
Del Valle is priced at 7.1k and I’m not a huge fan of him this week.
I think he could win a striking fight but it’s tough to project him to outwrestle Dulgarian. Even if he does, he could find himself on his back for a full round first.
Del Valle is only +375 to win ITD and I suppose the leverage you will get playing him is worth considering. He did score 105 in his UFC debut but this really isn’t a similar matchup to that one.
There’s some merit for del Valle as a low-end target because the matchup is semi-binary. I like some parts of del Valle’s game. I just don’t want to bet on him outwrestling Dulgarian ultimately so I will only want to use him as a salary saver on a small percentage of teams.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dulgarian by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Charles Radtke vs. Daniel Frunza
Fight Odds: Radtke -172, Frunza +146
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Radtke 8.7k, Frunza 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
I’m expecting Charles Radtke and Daniel Frunza to throw down in a silly boxing match until someone inevitably gets hurt.
Frunza made his UFC debut in April against Rhys McKee and got knocked down three times in the first round, forcing a doctor stoppage in between rounds. He’s now 9-3 professionally, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and one by decision. He is from Romania but currently trains in Miami, FL.
Frunza is a pressure boxer through and through. He likes to march his opponents down and throw hands, and largely, he’s had a lot of success with that game plan, knocking out nearly every opponent he has faced.
Frunza hasn’t fought only great competition, or poor competition. It’s been a mix. He fought a really strong opponent on the Contender Series and he fought in LFA as well.
The downside to Frunza is that he is very limited. He doesn’t really wrestle, and wrestling is probably a defensive liability more than anything else. He doesn’t kick a lot. He’s not even a great athlete or super powerful fighter.
However, he’s pretty urgent in getting after his opponents, and that urgency and aggression is a value add. He seems tough and has been able to land cleanly on most.
With that said, he’s been dropped multiple times as well, and both of his pro losses have come by submission. He rates out as the type to lose to stronger grapplers at the UFC level, and he’ll probably eventually get knocked out for real as well. I don’t know if he’s a great minute winner, and some more technical fighters might just be able to kick him from range.
But those who can’t keep him away will likely get run down and probably hurt. Frunza seems to have great cardio for that style and that style can really tire out opponents, like we saw on DWCS.
I don’t think there’s much more to say about Frunza as he’s not a super deep fighter. What you see is what you get. He will box and chase you down, and he’s pretty good at it. It’s a fairly singular path though.
Against McKee, his defensive issues were in full focus as he was getting tagged left and right, and ultimately damaged badly enough for the doctor to step in. However, Frunza wasn’t quitting, and he was potentially live to make a comeback, which only adds to my original thoughts regarding his urgency and cardio.
It will make for a fun matchup against Charles Radtke, who I’ve been hot and cold on throughout his short UFC career.
Radtke won both of his first two UFC fights, despite getting a booing from the crowd after defeating Blood Diamond in his debut. He backed it up with a quick KO against Gilbert Urbina, and his most recent win was a 51-second TKO against Matthew Semelsberger.
Unfortunately, his two losses have been somewhat quick TKO finishes as well. He was trounced by both Carlos Prates and Mike Malott, folding without much resistance. To be fair, those are two legit opponents.
Before entering the UFC, I had noted that “Chuck Buffalo” Radtke was a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but that he primarily wants to box, which isn’t ideal.
Radtke is decent with his hands though. He’s hurt a few guys and I think his technique is respectable. He’s not a major volume puncher, and I don’t think he easily wins rounds standing in the UFC. But he has some power and should be able to stay competitive with a handful of the division.
I’ve also seen him hurt mildly multiple times, and he’s now been finished by strikes a few times.
His most recent 1st round RNC victory on the regional scene was a good example of why his style can be questionable though. He just boxed with his opponent, and both guys hurt each other. The other dude shot a takedown and Radtke ended up in the turtle position. He then scrambled out, ended up on top and just dominated.
It’s like.. why?
If you’re going to be that dominant on top, why would you risk boxing and getting hurt? It feels like that’s who Radtke wants to be and although he has strong grappling in his back pocket, I don’t expect to see much of it.
To be fair, Radtke did attempt six takedowns on Diamond and landed one of them, but they weren’t great shots, and he spent a lot of time holding Diamond against the cage.
If that’s the kind of wrestling we’re going to see moving forward, it probably won’t help him win any fights.
Considering we haven’t seen him land a takedown since, it’s tough to rely on any real wrestling from Radtke against Frunza, though I think it would make a lot of sense. I think it would be a very real path to victory for him and a place he could potentially secure a stoppage.
More likely, we’ll see these two box and someone will get hurt. I really wouldn’t be surprised if there was a quick knockout on either side, just given the willingness of these two to throw down.
I think Radtke is a bit better of a boxer, and I just think his hands are crisper. He’s also the better grappler, and it’s fair to favor him outright. Realistically though, we’ve seen him hurt and finished in both of his losses and if these two are just boxing, Frunza probably will get to him eventually.
Despite the super ugly debut loss, I don’t mind this as a bounce back spot for Frunza. He’ll potentially get the kind of fight he wants, and if he can survive early exchanges, he can hurt Radtke and get the stoppage.
I still want to lean toward Radtke overall as he’s probably better defensively than Frunza, and he’s fought way better competition. With the additional wrestling equity, he simply has more paths to win. But it feels like a high-variance fight and one that would surprise me if it extended late.
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On DraftKings, I think both sides are viable for finishing equity.
You could potentially sell me on Frunza being the better target of the two at 7.5k, given his cheap price tag. He’s going to set a high pace and if he wins, I think an early TKO is very much on the table.
This fight actually doesn’t rate out as well to end ITD as I thought, and Frunza is only +220 to win ITD. That’s still a decent number for this kind of DK price tag, and I consider him a solid secondary target.
Especially as the public might be scared off with his debut loss, which is fair, Frunza could be overlooked a little bit. He’s still boom or bust and I’m not even picking him to win, but I don’t mind the upside for Frunza for his price tag.
Radtke at 8.7k is very much boom or bust, and he’s a little more expensive than I’d like to pay.
At that price, he definitely needs a finish. He scored 72 in his lone UFC decision and I’m not sure how much better an extended fight would look here.
The upside is that he might brawl early, and a first round TKO is on the table. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he got on top of Frunza and finished him there either, and Radtke’s ITD line has moved significantly from +175 to +110 this week, which is a big positive.
Again given his recent losses, I’m not convinced the public is excited to play Radtke here and he could be a touch overlooked as well.
This fight carries real risk if it extends, so it’s not necessarily a spot you must be all-in on. But I do like the potential for an early finish here, especially given that both sides can take damage, so I don’t mind playing into it and even being above the market overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Radtke by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Allan Nascimento vs. Cody Durden
Fight Odds: Nascimento -270, Durden +224
Odds to end ITD: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Nascimento 9.1k, Durden 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Allan Nascimento is a Contender Series alum from one of the early seasons back in 2018 where he came up short. But he got the call up to the UFC three years later and has been a relatively inactive fighter since joining the roster – he’s 3-1 in the UFC and 21-6 as a pro. Cody Durden got into the UFC by proxy as a short notice fill in back in 2020 who’s had a mixed bag of results in the promotion. But he’s had to fight some stiff competition resulting in his recent skid. He’ll be coming in on roughly two weeks’ notice to replace Rafael Estevam – he’s 6-6-1 in the UFC and 17-8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Nascimento is a good sized 125er standing 5’9” with a 69” reach.
However, I wouldn’t say he utilizes his size very efficiently as he’s very hittable even in his longer nature. The main fight to touch on was against Paiva (another very big 125er, now 135er) where he still ate 81 significant strikes and only defended at a 45% clip.
To his credit, Paiva has had a number next to his name in the UFC at one time, gave him a really solid scrap and he actually outlanded Paiva at distance 84-70.
He is active on the feet, but I don’t really rate his overall technical striking ability as when he throws, his defense kind of goes out the window and hasn’t been a power threat at the weight class despite his size. But he’s shown minute winning ability back on the Brazilian regional scene.
His fight against Ulanbekov had little distance time but he was able to get off on some straight shots and have success with the low leg kick. We’ve also seen very little distance time in his last three fights as well.
Overall, it’s still a bit rocky to assess Nascimento as a striker because his general standing footage has been pretty limited and he’s only had six fights in the last seven years – many fights not available in terms of research as well. But he appears to be a traditional scrappy guy out of that Chute Boxe camp in Brazil.
Durden’s a wrestler by trade and falls more into your technical/brawler type on the feet. He’ll fling out a jab, lead uppercuts and mix in leg kicks.
In the UFC, he was outpointed by Gutierrez on the feet, looked good early against Flick winning the boxing there, got outstruck by Aori but had a healthy amount of success of his own, got blasted with a flying knee by Mokaev early, ice’d Buys early, hurt Mota early and has struck competitively in five of his last seven fights.
Despite that floor base, he does have some power with six of his 17 pro wins coming via strikes.
My primary issue with him is his defense as he’s only defended strikes at 49% and has been hurt in five of his six UFC losses.
Dating back to his regional days, Durden’s largely been a front runner, often securing earlier finishes, but he can push through fatigue well traditionally and has won four of his last five decisions to his credit.
Overall, he’s a decent striker for his base but his brawling nature at times leaves bigger holes.
How it plays out: Off the top, Nascimento will realize a slight size advantage of 1” in height and 2” in reach. Given our quasi-smaller sample on the Nascimento side, I don’t have a strong opinion on the striking as it largely just profiles to be scrappy as both guys will throw and have suspect defense. Durden’s technically shown more power but he’s also been hurt far more which brings an interesting dynamic.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Nascimento is a grappler by base repping a BJJ black belt with 15 of his 21 pro wins coming via submission.
He was able to submit his last regional opponent but it was a fight that I wasn’t able to view. He went 1/10 on TDs against Paiva on DWCS but that was a scrambly fight as well.
He was able to have some wrestling success in his last Rizin loss but was ultimately out grappled in that fight getting stuck in some deep chokes and losing as a result.
He was controlled for 80% of the fight against Ulanbekov but was able to threaten with sub attempts and be active off his back which is what forced a split decision – not too much shame there considering Ulanbekov’s a good wrestler.
He was able to outwrestle and outgrapple Hadley, which at the time was impressive considering how strong Hadley looked until that point, but less impressive hindsight given that Hadley isn’t a very good wrestler. He got to the back of Hernandez quickly and eventually finished with an RNC and more recently won the ground exchanges in the back half of the fight against Filho.
But he appears to be the guy that if he can’t sweep or have offensive wrestling success, he will play guard which is of concern despite his aggressive nature.
Overall, he’s a good submission grappler that opponents need to mind your Ps and Qs with and can wrestle a bit, but we do have a handful of fights to suggest he’s beatable if facing fighters with stronger top games.
Durden comes from a wrestling background and is a BJJ brown belt.
The majority of his pro success has come on the ground where he’s been able to take guys down, grind them out or secure finishes.
We saw him score a 10-8 over Gutierrez via wrestling in the 1st round there, getting to his back and controlling him for the duration of the round. He was able to get to Flick’s back in their contest but did lose the position and got caught in a triangle shortly after a caught kick. The wrestling was ultimately what won him his fight with Aori getting five TDs and five minutes of control time – he got guillotined by Mokaev but it was after he got hurt standing so not too much to take away there – grinded Mota over 15 minutes going 4/8 on TDs, racking up 12.5 minutes of control – went 11/18 on TDs against Johnson racking up nearly 10 minutes of control – went 4/6 on TDs against Hadley racking up 7.5 minutes of control – more recently, he realized some control success on Silva and finished Schnell off with a front choke after a poor Schnell shot.
He did get tired in both the Gutierrez and Aori fights but the Gutierrez fight was short notice and he still pushed through against Aori, winning the 3rd round.
He’s shown a respectable back take and has six pro wins via submission – threatened both Hadley and Silva with some viable front chokes in those fights.
Defensively, we haven’t seen him have to defend many TDs or be on his back much, but he did get stuck in an armbar against Gutierrez and a triangle armbar from Hadley – pretty impressive how he was able to work out of the latter one against Hadley.
Given the two circumstances of how he was submitted against Flick and Mokaev, I’m not willing to say his defensive grappling is poor – he also defended armbars well against Mota and an inverted triangle from Johnson.
However, he kind of got ran recently on the ground by Ulanbekov and eventually submitted – no shame as Tagir is a good grappler but I honestly didn’t think Ulanbekov would be that dominant.
Overall, Durden is a good wrestler who can look to grind for 15 minutes and is a capable submission grappler but isn’t immune to making defensive mistakes.
How it plays out: Durden could potentially realize early success but with the short notice nature, I don’t really trust his gas tank to hold at a high pace. Nascimento will be the physically stronger guy and better submission grappler as well where it’s kind of hard to ignore that Durden has ultimately been submitted when facing better ground guys in Mokaev and Ulanbekov.
To be honest, I thought Durden was cut considering his recent run but he’s getting another crack here with the circumstance. I can see him competing and potentially making this an honest fight but the spot is bearish for him and Nascimento probably catches him.
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On DraftKings, Nascimento is a sizable favorite and priced at 9.1k.
I have mild interest in him because he’s a very solid submission grappler, and Durden tends to get finished in losses. It gives Nascimento real finishing equity here and he’ll likely carry a respectable ITD line (not out yet).
However, he definitely has not shown to be a knockout artist, and Durden has been getting hurt by killers like Van, Tagir, Ochoa and Silva. He also isn’t a high volume wrestler, and Durden is arguably better than him in that area.
So although I think Nascimento could win inside the distance, I am worried that his most realistic path is having a fun first round, and winning by guard sub after Durden takes him down. I’m unsure if he carries an elite top-end ceiling for that reason.
Nascimento’s one big score came with two takedowns and a first-round sub. I’m just not sure how easily he will wrestle offensively early in this matchup.
I don’t mind Nascimento as a mix-in ultimately, and he has a path to an early finish on the mat. But from a process standpoint I’m a little nervous that Durden can control wrestling exchanges and that might limit Nascimento’s ceiling, so he won’t be a true priority for me in the 9k range.
Durden at 7.1k actually feels viable.
It’s probably going to blow up in my face, but Durden could compete both on the feet and on the mat.
Nascimento is definitely a better submission grappler but Durden could land four takedowns here and win a close fight via top control, while Nascimento tries to sub him from the guard. It is a viable path in my mind though eventually I think he’ll get finished.
At 7.1k, Durden could be a little bit sneaky here. He’s only a low-end target and won’t have a strong ITD line, but we’ve seen him land 10+ takedowns in a fight before and Nascimento will play guard.
I can get behind mixing Durden in as a low-end secondary target/salary saver for that reason.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nascimento by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Billy Elekana vs. Kevin Christian
Fight Odds: Elekana -263, Christian +218
Odds to end ITD: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Elekana 8.9k, Christian 7.3k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a low level fight here in the light heavyweight division between Billy Elekana and Kevin Christian.
Elekana is 30 years old and 8-2 professionally. He competed against okay regional competition in LFA and PFL but he hadn’t fought anyone great either.
He ended up in a tough short notice matchup against Guskov in his UFC debut and was finished. He then beat Ibo Aslan in an awful performance by both men where they struck for three rounds, and Elekana outlanded Aslan 35-28 in significant strikes. Both guys did a whole lot of nothing in that fight and it was very boring.
I don’t think Elekana is terrible but he isn’t good either. I consider him a competent and solid regional level talent but a low tier UFC fighter. He is reasonably well-rounded and actually seems very tough, and he has only been finished once by Guskov.
On the feet, I consider Elekana an okay striker. He predominantly fights out of the southpaw stance but will switch stances occasionally. He has some decent straight punches and an okay jab. He has a decent rear kick to the body as well. He is somewhat technical. I don’t love his volume though and he looks to lack real power for a LHW.
He also doesn’t throw much in combination and generally throws single shots which I never like. I still consider him functional on the feet though and he doesn’t seem like someone who will give up soft knockouts.
As a grappler, I also consider Elekana competent. He actually looks like a solid defensive wrestler and can use his defense to counter grapple and end up on top. He also has okay takedowns and I consider his top game functional, and he can land ground-and-pound from top. I don’t think he is a great submission grappler though and he just doesn’t wrestle offensively enough, so I can’t count on him to persistently offensively wrestle.
My main concerns for Elekana are just his volume, and I don’t think he thrives anywhere. He isn’t a very good striker or a very good grappler, but he is competent in both areas. Also, his lack of power on the feet could be an issue.
Elekana will be taking on UFC newcomer Kevin Christian. Christian is a Brazilian fighter who is 9-2 professionally. He is 30 years old. He had a 5 year break from 2019 to 2024 where he wasn’t fighting. He then won an LFA fight and got an opportunity to fight on the Contender Series in late 2024.
Christian won his Contender Series fight but it wasn’t a great performance. The fight lasted for about 9 minutes and Christian had only landed 6 of 19 distance strikes in the fight. In round 1, Christian was taken down and attempted guard submissions and failed. He then was on his back again in round 2 and successfully guard submitted his tired and bad opponent. It wasn’t a super impressive performance.
Overall, I am not super high on Christian. He is a towering guy and is 6’7.” However, he isn’t super athletic and he is very low volume on the feet. I have also seen him hurt badly and knocked out. He has tall man’s defense. In his LFA fight, he did show an okay jab and straight punch and can occasionally land a power shot but I don’t think he is a good striker at all.
Christian is a BJJ black belt. However, he isn’t a great wrestler. I have seen him take down the occasional opponent but he is generally on his back chasing guard submissions. I do think he has some decent subs and has some danger in his game.
However, relying on guard subs in the UFC is not an intelligent thing to do.
I basically think Christian may get the occasional UFC finish, most likely by submission and that is about it.
As far as this matchup goes, I generally profile this fight as Elekana likely keeping this fight upright and being the more technical and faster striker. My guess is Elekana can win a boring striking based decision with a mild chance at a knockout because Christian isn’t very good. So Elekana is the pick.
I do think Christian has some plausible paths to victory. He does have some good subs so if he submits Elekana in a chaotic sequence I wouldn’t be shocked. I do think a KO is possible too as Christian can string together the occasional power shot. I am leaning against that though.
The other chance for Christian is just that Elekana doesn’t do much. They may strike, Elekana may not throw enough and keep this fight competitive. So Christian could just fight competitively and somehow win the fight in that way.
Overall, I am not high on either of these guys but I will pick Elekena to win as the more technical striker.
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On DraftKings, this is a super low-level fight though one that seems somewhat straightforward to me.
Elekana is a low-volume, technical striker, with a bit of top control wrestling. He is not dangerous, and doesn’t finish fights often. He doesn’t produce a lot of offense, and he wants to slow the pace down.
Christian is awful, I think. I’m very confident he will amount to nothing at the UFC level and I’d bet on him getting knocked the F out sooner rather than later. He is aggressive and will swing wildly, but his defense is non-existent. He is also a dangerous submission grappler from the bottom with zero wrestling.
As far as this matchup, my best guess is that Elekana plays a technical, defensive role and kills the fight. Even with some added wrestling, I doubt it’s enough to stand out at an 8.9k price tag.
What I’d really want from Elekana is an early knockout. That outcome is on the table because Christian is horrible and swings wildly with his chin in the air, but Elekana just doesn’t produce enough offense for me to be confident he’d land cleanly or often. So there is major bust risk here in an extended fight.
At 8.9k, Elekana is actually -120 to win ITD which is way better than I would have expected for what he offers. I’m really surprised this fight is -260 to end inside the distance, and it says more about Christian’s style than it does Elekana’s.
I guess I’d view Elekana as a viable contrarian target this week. He will occasionally pop off for an early KO, and that outcome is on the table, but I really don’t want to invest a whole lot in it. If he’s super low owned, pivoting onto him occasionally to be different does make some sense.
Christian at 7.1k could be viewed as the more viable target considering his win condition is more baked into an early finish.
I just think he’s awful. His bottom submission grappling is decent but that still only matters if Elekana takes him down and then gives up a sub, which I hate relying on. He swings with power but he’s so wild, and Elekana won’t yield a ton of offense.
So I still think the most likely outcome here is an extended fight where Christian doesn’t land much offense. Elekana is low volume as well though.
Still, at 7.1k, Christian does present an OK upside case. He’s +300 to win ITD which is fine for the price tag. He provides some threat in all areas. I really only consider him a low-end target because he lacks skill but I can at least acknowledge the upside case here, and would consider him a fine tournament target for some finishing equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Elekana by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Timmy Cuamba vs. ChangHo Lee
Fight Odds: Cuamba -114, Lee -102
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Cuamba 8.5k, Lee 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here between Chang Ho Lee and Timothy Cuamba.
Lee is a Korean fighter who is 11-1 professionally. He is 31 years old and booked his way to the UFC through the Road to UFC. He beat some solid guys in that competition including a good wrestler in Daermisi Zhawupasi and the solid Xiao Long.
Lee is kind of my boy right now. We played him at a reasonable line against Cortavious Romious in his last matchup. I had a feeling that Lee was being heavily undervalued as he beat the very solid Xiao Long who people didn’t realize was good. We ended up being proven correct and Lee dominated Romious for an easy win.
Lee is just a pace machine and he is a solid grappler as well. He isn’t the most technical wrestler and can actually be taken down himself too. However, he just fights at such a high pace and brings fights on the inside in his world. He is so aggressive. He will clinch up and batter inside strikes. When he lands takedowns, he will throw a ton of strikes. When he is taken down, he will throw strikes and work up. He is just always working.
I do think Lee’s takedowns are still pretty good mostly due to his tenacity. He can also slap in body triangles and get good positions on the back. I generally like his get-ups as well.
I don’t think Lee is the most skilled fighter at range. However, he forces inside clinching exchanges and grappling anyway so it doesn’t always matter. Go look at his total strikes on all his fightmetric fights and you can see that he is always dominating that battle.
I generally like Lee’s game. I do think he is limited as he isn’t the most dominant or skillful fighter and is a little too pace reliant. However, I think he can feast off the bottom tier of this division with his tenacious grappling and pace alone. He also seems tough.
Lee will be taking on Timothy Cuamba. Cuamba made his UFC debut dropping a close decision to Bolaji Oki. Cuamba only landed 33 significant strikes in that fight and only landed 43 on the Contender Series which I didn’t love. Cuamba then lost to Lucas Almeida where he only landed 59 significant strikes. Most recently, Cuamba bounced back with a KO win against Robert Romero.
I am not all that high on Cuamba. He is fine. Cuamba is at least technical on the feet. He is decent and has some sharp hands at times. I just don’t like his volume all that much though and sometimes is just in sparring mode too much. I consider him decent defensively though. He still just seems to like tepid distance striking fights.
Cuamba can also wrestle a bit. He didn’t attempt a takedown on the Contender Series but did attempt 6 against Oki. I don’t really consider him a strong wrestler or submission grappler, but he is okay. He is okay defensively as a wrestler and defends takedowns at 80 percent. He can give up his back a bit though.
Cuamba is just whatever. He is alright defensively. He can also fight in all areas. He just isn’t great at anything and doesn’t seem to score consistent offense.
I lean Lee in this matchup and I think there is probably value on the betting line at +105. Lee is going to go after Cuamba and start clinching and wrestling right away. Cuamba likes low tempo distance striking fights and I don’t see how he gets this here. Lee is a psychopath who will force an inside high paced fight. Lee won’t sit on the outside and have a pretty striking fight.
Once they are clinched and wrestling, I do think Cuamba can compete a bit. Cuamba may be able to land some shots or some takedowns. However, Lee will likely be attempting way more inside strikes and probably has the better gas tank too. Lee is also comfortable in this type of fight while Cuamba is probably not.
I also think Lee has more grappling upside in the sense that if Lee is taken down, I think he will be in no real danger and eventually work up. If Lee lands takedowns, I think he could get a body triangle or very good positions. I just think Lee has a chance to actually pull away in this matchup whereas Cuamba needs a very random KO to win clean. The only other way I see Cuamba winning is by an extremely close decision where he defends the grappling enough and lands some decent strikes throughout 15 minutes.
So I am going to go with Lee here. It is obvious to me that Lee will push a pace on the inside which is the fight he wants and the type of fight he has proven to be able to win consistently. Cuamba has never proven to me that he can win that type of fight.
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On DraftKings, I am quite interested in the Lee side as an underdog target.
I’m guessing the public will be in on him too, which is unfortunate, as he’s scored 137 and 95 DK points in his last two wins. Frankly, we’ve already cashed pretty huge on Lee who was barely favored over Romious in his last fight, and not a lot of people believed in his talent.
I think we have to go back to the well here as he’s lined as an underdog and priced at 7.7k. I’m not saying Lee is fully polished, and in a pure distance striking affair, I could see Cuamba being the more technical party and outstriking him.
But Cuamba is so mediocre at everything. Cuamba has been outlanded on the feet in all four of his tracked fights. At best he’s a low-volume round winner, and he’s lost rounds in literally all of his tracked fights as well.
I’d much rather bet on the grappling upside of “Korean Khabib” who is able to attempt 10+ takedowns over 15 minutes. And if he does get on top of Cuamba, I think he likely takes the back and potentially threatens a finish.
At 7.7k, I’m very willing to play into the upside here. Lee is only +285 to win ITD but I wouldn’t be surprised by a ground based stoppage. Even in a decision, I think Lee would be likely to exceed value at this price tag.
I don’t consider this a lock, and Cuamba might just choose to play a super defensive role that sucks the fantasy goodness away from the matchup, but at 7.7k Lee seems like a strong secondary target.
Cuamba is priced up to 8.5k and I don’t really have interest in playing him.
He’s coming off a knockout win, but he just hasn’t shown enough activity for me in any capacity of the game. Cuamba lost two other decisions where he would have scored 71 and 52 had he won, which is super poor.
The only upside here is that Lee will push a high pace, so in theory, Cuamba will need to do stuff to beat him. I think he could land a couple of takedowns, but I highly doubt he can do much with it. He probably needs to hurt Lee on the feet.
Cuamba is also +290 to win ITD and I don’t have much faith he can finish Lee unless he’s landing another clean head kick like in his last win. He still easily got outstruck in that first round though.
Cuamba is only a contrarian and/or leverage target for me, and it’s just not a matchup I particularly like for him to research a ceiling. I’ll be very light on Cuamba personally though I think a low-scoring decision is on the table for him.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lee by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Donte Johnson vs. Sedriques Dumas
Fight Odds: Johnson -350, Dumas +284
Odds to end ITD: -700
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson 9.2k, Dumas 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a sketchy fight here between Sedriques Dumas and UFC newcomer Donte Johnson.
Dumas is 3-3 in the UFC and I am not very high on him. I think he is a guy who has room to improve as he is very green and mildly athletic. However, I am just worried that he is too green and I really worry about his ability to take damage. He makes a lot of mistakes and is just so raw.
On the feet, I think Dumas is underdeveloped. He can land some shots from the outside and can generate some power. However, he lands 2.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.50 in return. He also just doesn’t take explosive power shots well. Ruziboev and Oleksiejczuk both just went after him early and easily overwhelmed him and finished him. I just don’t like his ability to fight through adversity.
Dumas is okay as a grappler. He is capable of landing takedowns, floating on top, and threatening with submissions. He did outwrestle Cody Brundage which isn’t the most impressive thing in the world but it was something. He is still just very green and can be taken down himself and submitted.
Overall, I think Dumas is just a low level fighter who is capable of beating other low level fighters and that is about it. He has decent cardio, and I think he can generate some danger here and there and can semi-strike and semi-grapple. However, he is not good anywhere and he clearly doesn’t take explosive power shots well. I think his time in the UFC is numbered.
Dumas will be taking on UFC newcomer Donte Johnson. Johnson is an American fighter who is 6-0 professionally. He is 26 years old. He booked his ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series winning by first round knockout.
In fact, all of his professional fights have come by first round KO against bad competition. So there are obviously questions about his ability to fight in extended fights and what he looks like when he faces anyone good.
Johnson does have a knockout loss on his record on the amateurs in 2023 and he did win a 5 round amateur fight in 2023 too.
Johnson comes from a wrestling background but he looks interested in power striking early. I do think he is physical and he is definitely explosive. He has some decent understanding of boxing and timing, and when to explode on his opponents. I do think he can knock out fighters in the UFC especially early. I also saw one of his fights go for about 4-5 minutes and he didn’t seem to be slowing down so I do think he is likely to carry his explosiveness at least early into the second round.
Other than that though, I don’t know how this guy will look in an extended fight, what his striking defense is like, or what his grappling will look like either.
Luckily for Johnson, he is fighting for Dumas who struggles with early first round explosive fighters. I do think Johnson will be at a clear advantage early and will likely explode on Dumas and put him away early. Johnson is -110 to win in round 1 and I think it is the most likely outcome of the fight.
I still have concerns for Johnson as he hasn’t been tested and Dumas actually has fought the better fighters and Dumas has more extended fight experience. I do think Dumas could survive early and find a hole in Johnson’s game late. I am still picking Johnson to get the early finish though.
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On DraftKings, Johnson is one of the most expensive fighters on the board at 9.2k and will be extremely boom or bust.
Quite frankly, this is not the type of profile that gets me excited. Only RD 1 KOs. No real adversity. Huge negative size discrepancy. I have no idea how Johnson will look past a round, nor how he will look against an opponent who pushes him, and the answer is probably not a great one.
Still, we’ve bet against Dumas in the past and I’m willing to believe Johnson can crack him here too. He’ll carry legitimate early finishing equity on paper at -285 to win ITD, and can be prioritized for that reason. From initial projections I think it’s possible he’s among the higher owned fighters on the entire slate.
I do think the grapplers have higher ceilings outright though, and it’s very possible that if Johnson wins, it’s only 100-110 points which could be good enough, but not for sure. It’s simply a thin window to reach the optimal as well.
I have no problems using Johnson moderately on this slate. When you have the ability to pay up, he rates out very well. He’s ultra boom or bust in my mind, and probably not my No. 1 selection in this top tier with Dulgarian priced close by.
Dumas is sitting at 7k and is only viable if you think he can extend the fight and take over.
I’m willing to believe it’s possible, honestly, just given Johnson’s profile. This dude is small and Dumas might actually have a grappling advantage. We’ve seen DWCS fighters bust so often, not that I think Johnson will be a bust, but I just have no reason to believe he’ll look amazing outside of a quick KO.
I assume Dumas will be ultra low owned at 7k as well, and there’s some value in the leverage you’ll get against Johnson.
This is only a low-end target. Dumas isn’t very talented, and isn’t on a full camp again. He has outside issues and doesn’t deserve a spot on this roster. I hope he gets flatlined.
But for a small percentage in tournaments, his size/grappling advantages and experience over three rounds could pay dividends against a newcomer, so I’d be willing to take a few chances.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Ketlen Vieira vs. Norma Dumont
Fight Odds: Dumont -177, Vieira +150
Odds to end ITD: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Dumont 8.6k, Vieira 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a blue-collar matchup here in the women’s bantamweight division between Norma Dumont and Ketlen Souza.
Dumont is a decent fighter and has won 8 of her last 9 fights. She is best as a technical striker. She lands 3.86 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.16 in return. She defends strikes at a fantastic 65 percent. She has pretty good striking metrics.
She comes from a striking background and you see it in her game. She has decent hands and leg kicks. She can also control range pretty well. She can outstrike girls at this weight class. She just has a knack for neutralizing her opponent’s striking offense. She limited Karol Rosa to landing only 33 significant strikes in three rounds.
Dumont can also land some takedowns here and there against weak grapplers. She lands 1.72 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed 6 takedowns in her recent matchup against GDR.
The main issue with Dumont is that she doesn’t always dominate rounds as she doesn’t put up a ton of aggregate offense. She did land 159 significant strikes in her last matchup against Irene Aldana though which was an impressive pace for her. So it was good to see she is capable of throwing more volume if needed.
She also can be clinched against the cage and neutralized which is why she lost to Macy Chiasson. She defends takedowns at 72 percent, and I consider her defensive wrestling competent. However, she doesn’t have the best get-up game when she is actually grounded and good grapplers can take advantage of her.
Dumont will be taking on Ketlen Vieira. Vieira is a weird fighter in my mind. I don’t particularly think she is good, and I don’t personally enjoy watching her fight. However, WMMA and 135 in particular is just so bad that Vieira being somewhat well-rounded and physical makes her a borderline top contender by default lol.
Vieira comes from a Judo background and she is a competent grappler. She lands 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts around 3 takedowns per fight. She is capable of landing takedowns and riding top position and is somewhat heavy in top position. As with most Judo players, Vieira is most threatening with her takedowns in the clinch when she can find those split seconds to explode when her opponents aren’t quite ready or aware that they are out of position.
Vieira generally defends takedowns very well and has a 90 percent TDD rate which is stellar. She just defended 6/8 takedowns against Kayla Harrison which was solid. So she is tough to take down.
I have seen Vieira on her back though and her get-ups are not strong. If she gets taken down, she can lose an entire round. She can also be clinched up against the cage.
Vieira has actually struck a lot lately, and I do think her boxing has improved. She has good timing on the inside with her boxing combinations, and she definitely showed some skills in her win against Holly Holm.
I still just don’t fully trust Vieira on the feet though. She is still only landing 2.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.72 in return. She only defends strikes at 51 percent. Those are just hard metrics to be confident in.
I do think Vieira hits above-average from a strike per strike basis though so the effectiveness of her strikes swing the judges to her favor at times. So she will likely outperform her striking metrics in general. She also has decent head strike metrics which helps her out. I still just think Vieira is more of a defensive fighter than an offensive fighter though.
As far as this matchup goes, I think both girls have ways to win. I do lean Dumont because I think she is a more skillful and active striker. If these girls strike, I think it will be competitive but I think Dumont would likely win a decision and get ahead on the numbers. Dumont is just more talented as a striker.
I do think Vieira has a path to victory with clinching and grappling though. We saw Dumont held against the cage versus Ladd and Chiasson. I do think Vieira could do that to Dumont. Also, if Vieira happens to land a takedown, I don’t know if Dumont will get up. So Vieira has ways to swing this fight.
The issue is Vieira doesn’t tenaciously attempt takedowns and Dumont’s takedowns aren’t bad. If Vieira just attempts 2-4 takedowns, she probably won’t win as Dumont will probably defend a couple or a few of those.
So I think we likely get stretches of striking time where I favor Dumont so I favor Dumont overall.
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On DraftKings, Dumont is probably more of a pass than someone I’m actively targeting.
I say that with hesitation because Dumont has actually scored well in her wins. In recent decisions, Dumont has scored 93, 90, 90, 63 and 92 which is really strong.
I don’t necessarily think her scores are sustainable though. Two of her last three wins have come with several takedowns and 10 minutes of control time. The most recent win had 159 significant strikes.
Vieira just doesn’t absorb a ton of strikes or takedowns, so I think the most likely outcome for Dumont is 60-80 sig. strikes and 1-2 takedowns. That would only yield a score in the 70s.
This fight is also -350 to go the distance and Dumont is +400 to win ITD which shows no real finishing equity. I think I’m off her this week to be honest. She could possibly exceed value given her recent box scores, but I’m skeptical of her repeating that in this matchup and ultimately just don’t trust the ceiling.
Vieira is priced at 7.6k and is viable for a 10x score.
I think it would only come in a boring decision, but Vieira could land 2-3 takedowns with 5-10 minutes of control. She’s only scored 75, 80, 78 and 83 in her recent wins, and that’s about what I’d expect. There’s not much finishing equity here at +565 to win ITD.
I don’t consider Vieira a priority. I don’t think she has much of a ceiling. Mixing her in as a low-end secondary target for win equity is definitely viable but I’d only aim to be near the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dumont by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alice Ardelean vs. Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
Fight Odds: Ardelean -363, Conejo +293
Odds to end ITD: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Ardelean 9.3k, Conejo 6.9k
Weight Class: 115
The UFC is fulfilling its mandatory fight contract requirements by tossing this meaningless matchup together between Alice Ardelean and Montserrat Conejo Ruiz.
Ardelean is actually coming off a solid performance against Rayanne dos Santos, landing 154 strikes en route to a unanimous decision. She previously lost to Shauna Bannon and Melissa Martinez by decision.
Ardelean is essentially a low-level kickboxer and she’ll be mostly reliant on volume to edge out competitive rounds. It’s certainly a positive that she’s been able to land 6.73 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.04 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate, and that will give her enough volume on paper to hit her win condition.
She’s just a small, non-athletic talent and doesn’t carry much finishing equity, so her ceiling is extremely limited. She didn’t deal with the kicks of Bannon well, and she struggled to cut off the cage against Martinez. Dos Santos is a limited striker herself.
Additionally, Ardelean is a very mediocre grappler. She’s only a blue belt in BJJ and will probably lose to strong wrestlers who can hold her on her back. She has landed a couple of takedowns here and there, and has mild control equity, but she’s not a very dangerous finisher on the mat either.
Her next opponent is one of the worst fighters in this division, and I was shocked to see she’s still on the UFC roster after getting destroyed three times in a row by Amanda Lemos, Jaqueline Amorim and Eduarda Moura.
It’s now been two years since Ruiz last fought, and I’m expecting her to look just as bad as before.
Ruiz won her UFC debut with a victory against Cheyanne Vlismas, landing a handful of head-and-arm throws, and tying Vlismas up with a headlock for nearly 10 minutes.
She essentially does nothing besides rush at her opponent, and attempt to drag them down with a scarf hold. It’s a low-level move, and only generally works against opponents who are not familiar with that position.
She’s not even a great submission grappler. Ruiz has three career wins by submission in 14 pro fights. I suppose she has submission potential against terrible competition, but I don’t consider her a real threat in any way.
Her striking isn’t great either. It’s not a real path to victory for Ruiz. I wouldn’t trust her to land any volume at range or have any knockout potential.
The only caveats here are that her recent losses came against really solid competition, and fortunately we were able to capitalize on some of those spots. She’s essentially been destroyed all three times, getting KOd in 35 seconds by Lemos, and getting taken down and pounded to a pulp by Amorim and Moura.
I don’t see Ardelean fitting into that category and to be honest, I would be less surprised if Ruiz actually won this fight with head locks than I would be if Ardelean demolished her as well. Both outcomes are on the table.
I just don’t have any faith in Ruiz doing anything other than head-and-arm throws, which really don’t work. If she’s forced to strike at distance, Ardelean is surely better, more comfortable, and throws more volume. Maybe she can knock Ruiz out too by default.
It’s possible Ardelean can land takedowns, but she’s a massive, massive step down in skill from Amorim and Moura, so I don’t think she would have an easy time finishing Ruiz on the mat. That’s where I think Ruiz could tie her up, and potentially land takedowns of her own.
Ultimately, I can’t pick Ruiz to win as she has almost no skills. But her path of clinching, tossing Ardlean down and headlocking her for 10+ minutes is on the table I suppose. I wouldn’t be surprised if she had mild success.
I have to favor the overall game of Ardlean to survive those positions, and outstrike Ruiz over the duration.
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On DraftKings, Ardelean is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.3k and I don’t think I can play her.
It is honestly a risk because we’ve seen Ruiz demolished again and again, and if Ardlean gets a devastating first round finish, she can absolutely compete for the optimal lineup. Ruiz is so bad that I wouldn’t rule out that outcome.
However, the fight is -250 to go the distance, which says a lot about Ardelan, who is only +225 to win ITD herself. A bunch of takedowns and a bunch of ground-and-pound could still get her there, but I can’t rely on that outcome.
She’s not the worst play in the world due to strength of competition, or lack thereof, but Ardelan doesn’t rate out well for finishing equity on paper and she is not a lock to have wrestling success. At 9.3k she just feels too expensive and I’d rather pay down in the majority of my constructions.
Ruiz at 6.9k scored 104 in her UFC debut with four takedowns, 10 minutes of control, and 136 non-significant strikes.
That type of outcome is on the table here, only because if Ardelean does not know how to defend the dumb head/arm throws, Ruiz could in theory take her down the same way over and over, which is what happened in that debut.
For that reason she has low-end viability, and especially as a salary punt. But I can’t pick her to win, and she’s still a sizable underdog. She may honestly just get run through and her floor is extremely limited.
I just can’t count out the possibility that Ardelean also looks weak in grappling exchanges, and the fight is also projected to extend, so there’s at least a small shot for Ruiz. Low-end salary punt.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ardelean by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Phil Rowe vs. Seokhyeon Ko
Fight Odds: Ko -190, Rowe +161
Odds to end ITD: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Ko 8.8k, Rowe 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Phil Rowe’s a Contender Series alum from the 2020 season and has been the dictionary definition of inconsistency, not only fight to fight but round to round – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 11-5 as a pro. Seokhyeon Ko is a South Korean national who recently earned a contract on this past season of Contender Series, coming through as a sizable underdog there and in his debut – he’s 12-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Rowe is a freakishly long guy for the division standing 6’3” with an 80” reach.
He’s shown elements of being able to work behind his length but other times, not so much. Rowe eats 4.2 SApM at 54% and 6.4 DApM at 58%. He’s also been hurt significantly multiple times in the UFC but has recovered to his defense.
Offensively, he lands 3.5 SLpM at 46% which isn’t great due to grappling in his fights, but he lands 6 DLpM at 44%, has some fast hands, power and will unload on guys when he smells blood in the water – 7 of 11 pro wins come via KO/TKO.
I think part of his defensive issues are his footwork – if he could really hone that in, Rowe would be more effective.
Overall, he’s potent offensively but poor defensively.
I’m unsure of Ko’s official striking background but he stands southpaw and operates in a more traditional Korean kickboxing based style with some karate elements.
He’s not the highest output guy but can fight in all three ranges and serves as more of a sniper. He reps the nickname of “The Korean Tyson” which is a bit much but I would say, but Ko’s power is one of his better attributes.
He picks his shots well, is accurate and has a piston of a left hand which has aided in six career knockouts. Despite repping six decisions, he’s hurt many opponents in those fights even when he hasn’t been able to finish.
Outside of his left hand, he’s got a really cheeky pull counter/check right hook which has also done damage.
Not many opponents have been able to get off extensive volume on him but in that linear style he has, opponents have had some success coming forward as Ko can keep his head on the center line at times.
It also needs to be noted that both of Ko’s pro losses have come via knockout as well – granted the last one dates to nearly four years ago and the first one coming against former UFC fighter Sasha Palatnikov in his 2nd pro fight back in 2018.
So, there are some chin concerns but he fought a perennial KO artist on DWCS last year and took that guys shots just fine – I also thought Ko showed improved footwork and defense in that fight, holding Cavalcanti 22/78 on head strikes – Cavalcanti also had an 8” reach advantage in that fight.
We didn’t get much distance time in his debut against Elliott but he was winning the exchanges.
Overall, I would like to see a bit more of Ko against a better brand of competition before making super definitive claims. I’m not a huge fan of his volume but he does make his style work for him and I feel his power will translate at the UFC level.
How it plays out: Off the top, Rowe will realize a decided size advantage of 5” in height and 9” in reach. That said, the striking seems somewhat volatile here because Ko’s never faced anyone as long as Rowe, but Rowe also hasn’t fought any southpaws thus far in the UFC. Ko is the better defensive striker but he can also fight with his hands down so I have some honest concerns when Rowe is able to extend out combinations. That said, Ko moves pretty well and Rowe isn’t the hardest guy to find coming in having been landed on by shorter opponents.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Rowe is a grappler by base, holding black belt BJJ status.
He’s finished four of his 11 pro wins via submission but I was only able to find one of them on tape. Rowe kind of falls in the “kitchen sink BJJ guy” category for me where he will stand and strike for extended periods because he’s fine with being taken down to play from his back at times.
However, I’ve also seen him pull guard and get stuck there for periods of time as well. But he will be aggressive in attacking subs and sweeps from bottom.
One of the main issues I have with Rowe is that he’s a subpar wrestler which in general is always a pet peeve of mine for base BJJ fighters.
But as touched on, Rowe’s hands are pretty good so it’s not as much of a knock.
But he only stuffs TDs at 57%, which to his defense, he has shown some get up and sweep ability.
He did take a couple grappling matches recently where he got washed out by Checco and Steele, but really no shame there as they’re both higher level black belts.
Overall, you can’t really trust Rowe to wrestle with much consistency (0.7/15), but he did get to the back in a few recent fights. Despite his grappling pedigree, the floor is how he’s lost minutes in multiple fights.
Ko is a grappler by base where he reps a BJJ purple belt and is the first Korean national to win a combat sambo world championship.
At first, when I saw those credentials I thought they might be hokey but after looking more into it – they are legit – FIAS 2017 in Sochi, Russia.
Despite those credentials, we’re not dealing with Khabib or Islam here but you can see the sambo in his MMA fights as he excels primarily to the upper body in being able to manipulate opponent weight distribution to land solid foot sweeps, trips or throws – so you can see some judo elements in there as well. He’s shown some lower body attacks as well to mix in.
When on the ground, he’s a bit raw as a submission grappler (hence no pro wins via sub) but he’s also shown passing abilities and good GNP. His ground control regionally was okay but he’s coming off dumpstering Elliott in the grappling racking up 10 minutes of control where even when Elliott was able to work up, he stayed on which was good to see.
Defensively, not many guys have prioritized wrestling against him but he has been taken down in a few fights. However, he’s shown pretty solid get-ups in being able to use the fence, get to a hip and work back to his feet so he’s never been extensively controlled or put in any real danger.
Overall, Ko is a competent ground fighter which supplements the threat he brings on the feet as well. I would still like a bigger sample size to better analyze his defensive wrestling though.
How it plays out: This is where I’d give a clearer advantage to Ko, mainly in the wrestling department. We’ve seen Rowe drop rounds and fights on the bottom throughout his UFC run and given more specifically what we saw out of Ko in his debut against Elliott, he should be able to land some TDs here and rack up minutes. That said, Rowe will serve as the better submission grappler (despite having no UFC subs) as we haven’t seen Ko threatened much in that realm.
Funky fight as I’ve never been the biggest Rowe guy just because of his inconsistency – like he’s still losing rounds even in the fights he’s winning but he’s a really dangerous guy with a 100% finish rate. On the flip, I was a lot higher on Ko coming in than the average person and him upsetting Elliott wasn’t shocking as a pretty well-rounded fighter with KO power. I ultimately think both guys are fairly live for KOs when this fight is standing but I favor Ko in the matchup for his ability to win minutes with his wrestling.
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On DraftKings, Ko is coming off a 101 point score as the cheapest fighter on the slate, though he’s now priced up to 8.8k for this matchup.
He is only -185 to win, so this does feel like an expensive price to pay, but I don’t mind Ko’s wrestling equity in this particular matchup and may want to go back to the well here.
The dynamics here are kind of obvious. Rowe is way taller and longer, and throws so much more volume. Ko has been knocked out in both of his pro losses, though I actually think he could compete here on a strike per strike basis with some KO equity of his own, he’ll be very live to lose this one on the feet.
Conversely, while Rowe is a decent submission grappler, his wrestling sucks and he’s been taken down by six of his last eight opponents, where he can be held on his back. Ko just landed six takedowns against Elliott and I have to favor him here for wrestling equity.
If he wins, I do think he lands 3+ takedowns and probably earns 8+ minutes of control, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him exceed value once again.
He is only +210 to win ITD though which isn’t particularly strong, however, there’s mild KO equity given his sharp shooter style. The wrestling is the primary path I’d be interested in though.
I’m not convinced Ko makes this look easy, but I do feel he has a wrestling advantage and I don’t mind him for the price. I’ll consider him a strong secondary target overall, though he isn’t a lock to be optimal even with a win.
Rowe is priced at 7.4k and needs a finish.
Potentially we’d want what we got from him last time, which was kind of lucky. He was giving up takedowns as usual, and even got dropped in round two. But he came from behind to throw a ton of volume and score the late knockout to put up 93 points on DraftKings.
Rowe just won’t carry a floor in this matchup as he could be held down for periods of time, and even on the feet, Ko will try to stick and move. Rowe is also +300 to win ITD which is OK but not special.
I don’t mind Rowe in the sense that if this is just a kickboxing fight, I’d want a piece. He can beat you up with accumulation and we’ve seen Ko finished with strikes before. It could be a situation where Ko is in extreme danger if he can’t land takedowns, though that’s probably an exaggerated version of reality.
Rowe is just a low-end target for me. He has some upside in a potential binary matchup but it’s still a tough window to hit and he’s pretty dependent on the finish. With a large portfolio I’d mix him in but my preferred target here is still Ko.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ko by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Talita Alencar vs. Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Odds: Alencar -222, Carnelossi +187
Odds to end ITD: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Alencar 9k, Carnelossi 7.2k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a binary matchup here in the strawweight division between Talita Alencar and Ariane Carnelossi.
Alencar is a Brazilian fighter who is 6-1-1 professionally. She comes from a solid BJJ background and is a three time IBJJF no gi world champion.
Alencar is very much grappling dependent in MMA. She isn’t very physical and she is basically a liability on the feet. She kind of reminds me of Carla Esparza except a worse version. She just struggles standing and is so small, and basically stays out of range against her opponents, where she can get teed off on if her takedowns fail her.
I do think Alencar has decent takedowns though. Her one loss and one draw came against Stephanie Luciano who I actually think has very good takedown defense and get-ups. Luciano was a terrible matchup for Alencar and I played Luciano there. So I actually thought Alencar was semi underrated after losing to Luciano because I actually do think Alencar has some decent takedowns and I ended up playing Alencar vs Demopoulos because of it.
Alencar can double leg, high crotch, snatch single, etc. It was just hard for Alencar to get that game going against Luciano, especially in the second fight.
On top, Alencar is also decent. She can hold position, pass, and threaten with submissions and ground-and-pound. I basically think she will just feast on below-average grapplers in the UFC and then get beaten up vs anyone who can stop takedowns. Alencar did show some cardio issues against Luciano but I moreso think it was because Luciano made Alencar work very hard. Alencar attempted 24 takedowns against Luciano which isn’t something she will need to do in this matchup.
Alencar will be taking on Ariane Carnelossi. We last saw Carnelossi in action over a year ago taking a cheap DQ win over Piera Rodriguez after getting dominated on the feet and on the mat for most of the fight. It was definitely an illegal headbutt by Rodriguez. However, I think it is obvious to anyone watching that the head butt didn’t do any actual damage and that Carnelossi clearly milked it.
Carnelossi generally likes to strike. She is short and built like a rock, and simply comes forward and throws winging hooks at her opponents for the entire fight. On the feet, think of Carnelossi as a much lesser version of Jessica Andrade. Like Andrade, she pressures, is almost always moving forward, and tries to use her pace, physicality and cardio as a weapon to tire her opponents out. Carnelossi is not very technical or skilled but again, her pace and willingness to throw down help her tremendously.
Carnelossi lands 2.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.74 in return, and defends strikes at a bad 45 percent. Again, she has some pace and aggression on the feet but I question her actual skills and defensive abilities. Decent strikers can make her look silly.
Carnelossi lands 1.37 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I don’t consider her an actual strong wrestler. Her takedowns have all come against Istela Nunes who couldn’t grapple out of a cardboard box. She had a grappling affair against Na Liang, but it was really Liang who was initiating the grappling and Carnelossi powered to top position and won the fight via ground-and-pound because Liang is a sloppy mess.
Carnelossi is also poor defensively as a wrestler. She defends takedowns at 14 percent! She was badly outwrestled in her fight against Loopy Godinez. She surrendered 8 takedowns to Godinez and was controlled for 13:26. It was a terrible look. Rodriguez was also having her way with Carnelossi on the mat. Carnelossi tries to power out of positions and sort of knows how to sweep. However, she just isn’t very good on the mat in bottom position and can be taken down easily.
As far as this matchup goes, this is very binary. Although Carnelossi isn’t good on the feet, I would favor her against Alencar standing just based on aggression and physicality. If for whatever reason this plays out standing, Carnelossi will probably win.
The issue is Carnelossi has terrible TDD and Alencar is actually a pretty skilled TD artist and BJJ player. Carnelossi is also super aggressive and will probably run straight into takedowns. Carnelossi has some physicality but my guess is Alencar is able to land takedowns without much issue and get good positions on the mat. I actually think Alencar has sneaky finishing upside on the mat here. So my pick is Alencar to get her grappling going and get this done.
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On DraftKings, Alencar is priced up to 9k but she has some potential as a grappling dependent fighter.
She did just score 103 points on DraftKings with four takedowns and 13.5 minutes of control, and it’s possible she could duplicate that here. Carnelossi is really poor on the mat, and if Alencar gets on top of her, she can probably hold her down or maybe finish her.
Alencar is only +225 to win ITD, which is not a particularly strong finishing prop. I do have some concerns that Carnelossi’s physicality will limit those takedowns, meaning Alencar could possibly lose. But I can also see a clear grappling win and RNC taking place too.
I suppose I am a little bit concerned with the top end ceiling of Alencar. While 103 is strong, a mid 90s or low 100s is not necessarily optimal at this price tag, and if Alencar fails to land takedowns, she won’t be scoring points at all.
When you compare her to fighters like Dulgarian, for example, I don’t think Alencar is a must. However, she has a pretty solid floor/win case given her grappling style, and a decent matchup to get the job done. I like Alencar as a secondary option this week and mixing her in near the field percentage makes sense.
Carnelossi is priced at 7.2k and has some merit in what could be a binary fight.
Carnelossi is physical and powerful, and could hurt Alencar if the fight stays standing. I wouldn’t project her for a ton of strikes landed in this kind of matchup though, and it’s very possible she gets held down for a full round or more.
Carnelossi just won’t rate out well in this matchup, especially with an ITD line of +550. I do think she has low-end merit in what’s a pretty shaky bottom tier, but she’d only be a mix-in and not someone I’m particularly confident strings together a good performance on Saturday.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alencar by Decision (Confidence=Medium)