UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane (10/25/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
Fight Odds: Aspinall -348, Gane +282
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Aspinall 9.4k, Gane 6.8k
Weight Class: HW
We finally get to see Tom Aspinall back in action this weekend as he’ll take on Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight championship.
Aspinall won the interim heavyweight championship over Curtis Blaydes in July 2024, and waited a full year for the official champion Jon Jones to accept his matchup, but Jones instead chose to retire.
I’m not sure how that fight would have gone, but I do know Aspinall is one of the scariest fighters on planet earth right now, and has essentially dominated eight consecutive fights to start his UFC career (with the exception of his injury loss to Blaydes, where Aspinall blew his knee out 15 seconds into the fight).
Of those eight wins, six have come by knockout and two have come by submission.
Aspinall is a strong boxer, with real power in his hands, and he’s been able to close the distance and land big damaging strikes against most of his opponents. Occasionally, Aspinall will instead look to wrestle where he is a legit wrestler and submission grappler.
The only downside to his success is that we really haven’t seen him tested. Of anyone, Andrei Arlovski is the only man to fight a semi-competitive round one before he was instantly submitted in round two.
Now he’ll take on Ciryl Gane, who absolutely can test Aspinall in certain areas, though I’m not sure we’ll see this fight play out for much longer than Aspinall’s recent fights.
Gane is a legit kickboxer and distance striker, and among the best in the division in that regard. I’ve been high on him for a long time, and I do think he’s generally capable of winning the title, given his skillset and ability to fight for five rounds.
Gane fought Francis Ngannou for the HW title in 2022, and was cruising to an early lead, until Ngannou decided to wrestle, at which point, Gane could not stop it. Ngannou is a bad wrestler, so that was an extremely concerning way to lose, though it’s understandable given Gane’s base.
Again in 2023, Gane for Jon Jones for the title. To the surprise of some, not to me, Jones took down Gane easily and submitted him in two minutes.
And most recently, Gane won a three-round decision over Volkov, despite giving up a few takedowns which gives me even more concern.
To put it simply, Gane isn’t a very good defensive wrestler. He’s defending takedowns at 43 percent officially, and when I watch him, I hate his balance and I just do not see the skills of a high-level defensive grappler.
On the mat, he’s not a complete fish, but he does not scramble well, and he’s liable to be held down for minutes at a time.
Aspinall is levels ahead of Gane on the mat, as a wrestler and a submission grappler. If he chooses to wrestle, I’d be shocked if Aspinall could not succeed.
In my mind, Aspinall should probably chase takedowns early, where he should be able to get on top. From there, he should be able to hold Gane down, win rounds cleanly, and more likely pass to a dominant position where he can finish the fight.
The main concerns in my mind are A) Aspinall decides to strike instead of wrestle or B) He can’t finish the fight and gets tired.
We have essentially not seen him fight past the six minute mark in the UFC thus far, so although he may be fine for an extended period, I think it’s more likely that Aspinall would tire. He’s a very explosive fighter, and uses a lot of energy. Keeping up the pace for a few rounds is definitely possible, but I’m sure Aspinall will look a lot less explosive late than he does early.
And with that said, if the fight is competitive and we see championship rounds, Aspinall has the profile of someone who might fail.
In this particular matchup, he gets an opponent in Gane who can absolutely hang with him at range. Gane 5.26 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.23 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate, which are super strong metrics. He’s gone the five-round distance three times already, winning twice.
Aspinall carries way more power than Gane and still might hurt him, and conversely, Gane may not do enough damage to make Aspinall quit early in the fight. But over five rounds or pure kickboxing, I’d probably favor Gane outright. He’s proven far more and he’s a solid round winner with good defense. Aspinall has the damage upside though.
On the mat, I don’t really view this fight as a competitive one. Maybe Gane can survive, and Aspinall will get tired of wrestling. That’s possible. But Aspinall can probably land takedowns in each of the first three rounds if he wants to, and it’s difficult for me to see Gane surviving that kind of contest.
—
On DraftKings, Aspinall is priced up at 9.4k and will be among the top overall targets on the slate.
We do have a quality top tier this week, and multiple championship fights, meaning there are plenty of ways to go without forcing Aspinall into every lineup. However, he’s still -300 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate, and a finish will likely come early.
I also think it could come on the mat, which gives Aspinall a higher ceiling in theory than if he was to purely strike, though there are some concerns with how he’ll choose to attack.
The risk, along with public ownership, is that Aspinall wins too quickly. He’s scored huge at times, including 131, 129 and 116, but we’ve also seen him score 106, 105, 104, 103, and 95. Those latter scores may very well be not enough at this price tag.
Ultimately, there are other ways to go on this slate, especially if you are aiming to be a bit different. But Aspinall is going to project extremely well, and is very likely to give you around 100 points or a bit more in a win.
I do like taking chances elsewhere but I also expect to have moderate exposure to Aspinall in total, as he’s a very easy/safe click for floor/ceiling in a win, and prioritizing him in this top range is still a viable strategy. Just expect him to be very chalky.
Gane at 6.8k doesn’t interest me a whole lot, but if you think he can win, he’s viable.
Obviously he will be much lower owned than Aspinall and will carry lots of leverage, so if he does win, he’ll catapult you up the leaderboard.
I’m not totally sure what a win would look like for Gane. Either a late knockout, or a striking based decision I suppose. I’m not convinced he would smash at his price tag and he’s only +475 to win ITD.
I just worry mostly that he’ll get taken down early, held down, and won’t produce points. So I don’t think he carries any real floor, and without an early-ish knockout, I’m not sold he clears the optimal lineup.
Again, Gane is a good kickboxer though. If he gets a striking fight, he can win. It’s probably worth low-end secondary exposure just in case Aspinall wants to strike, given the leverage included in the matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aspinall by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
Fight Odds: Dern -159, Jandiroba +136
Odds to end ITD: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Dern 8.6k, Jandiroba 7.6k
Weight Class: 115
With the departure of Zhang Weili to the flyweight division, we will see a new strawweight champion on Saturday as Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern will throw down for the second time.
These two last competed in 2020, where Dern won a unanimous 29-28 decision in what was a fairly competitive matchup.
Both Dern and Jandiroba are high-level submission grapplers, and excel on the mat, so this was an interesting test as to whose grappling would be superior, or who would win the stand-up exchanges if neither could maintain ground control.
Ultimately, neither could establish ground control, as Dern went 0/5 on takedowns and Jandiroba went 1/1, with both only earning a total of 2.5 minutes of control. The kickboxing was competitive at times, but Dern was the more active fighter, outlanding Jandiroba 62-43 in distance strikes and 82-63 in significant strikes.
The quick summary is that the first round played out fully on the feet, with Dern getting the edge in her striking by being more active. Jandiroba did bust Dern’s nose up in the second round with a knee, and then Dern kind of pulled guard to where Jandiroba was on top of her for 2.5 minutes to win the round.
In round three, the striking was pretty competitive, but Dern landed some bigger shots late and then Jandiroba pulled guard to end up on the bottom and end the round, where Dern was given the nod.
It’s honestly a fight that’s easy to analyze and break down.
Dern is one of the best female submission grapplers of all-time, and certainly so in MMA. She’s highly skilled in all ground positions and is a big submission threat from top or bottom.
She is not the greatest wrestler though, and at times, her wrestling has been awful. She only lands takedowns at 17 percent accuracy, meaning she is landing less than 1 takedown per 5 attempts, which is horrible. Her takedown defense also sucks at 25 percent but she’s fine to mess around there if necessary.
On the feet, Dern is extremely inconsistent. She can be wild and non-technical, but at least she throws down. We’ve seen some great performances out of her at times, and we’ve seen her get beaten to a pulp at times.
Dern lands 4.5 strikes per minute at distance, while absorbing 5.9 for a -1.4 ratio.
Virna Jandiroba is another elite submission grappler, though not quite on the level of Dern, she’s arguably even more dependent on her grappling.
Unlike Dern, Jandiroba is a decent wrestler, averaging 2.37 per 15 minutes with a 33 percent accuracy. Her takedown defense is solid too at 73 percent.
We haven’t seen that many distance exchanges from Jandiroba but she’s not as comfortable there or high volume. She only lands 3.5 per minute and absorbs 4.3 for a -0.8 ratio.
In this matchup, what we saw last time was the two neutralized each other on the mat, and mostly kickboxed. I am guessing that’s what we see a lot of once again.
Dern has improved everywhere since the last time, but she’s still not a great wrestler. I do believe she can take Jandiroba down once or twice but even if she does, she may not be able to do much on top.
Conversely, Jandiroba can take Dern down, and may project for a couple of takedowns, but she very likely won’t be able to do anything on top either.
This could still matter as one side being on top for 3 minutes in a round could win them the round. It’s one path to victory for Jandiroba especially, who is the better offensive and defensive wrestler, though her lack of threat on top in this matchup may still not win her easy rounds.
Otherwise, these girls are going to kickbox, where Dern is a little more comfortable and willing to throw down. But she lacks technique, defense and technique at times, which allows Jandiroba room to compete. That’s what we saw in the first fight too.
I think Dern has proven more on the feet than Jandiroba, and I would give her a slight edge over five rounds. She’s also the better sub grappler on paper and I feel no threat from Jandiroba, whereas Dern could maybe find something on the ground (I still doubt it).
Rounds can and still may be competitive here. Jandiroba can win a tight striking round or win a round from top position. I lean toward Dern doing more overall and getting her hand raised.
—
On DraftKings, Dern is priced at 8.6k and she’ll be a viable target as a five-round favorite.
In her last win against Jandiroba, she only scored 71 points in a decision. If we extrapolate that out to five rounds, Dern would have scored about 98 DK points. It’s solid, but not a smash.
My fear here really is that Dern won’t have a tremendous ceiling. She is not guaranteed to wrestle, and she may not want to. I do think some top time could come either way, but Dern landing 0-2 takedowns is very realistic.
Otherwise, I think Dern could land 20-25 strikes per round. So we’re still likely looking at a mid-90s score.
At 8.6k, this would be a solid score, and could still allow Dern to contend for the optimal. But on a 14-fight slate, it wouldn’t be a guarantee, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Dern pushed off.
I still do think Dern is a strong target as she provides a really strong floor at her price tag. She’s also +175 to win ITD (bet down from +120) though I don’t think she finishes at a high rate personally, there’s some additional untapped grappling equity if Dern chooses to wrestle at a higher rate than last time. We could see her push past 100 DK points in that situation or with a finish.
It may be an ownership decision as well where if you’re playing Aspinall, and other chalk below, maybe you don’t want to also pair that construction with Dern, and instead want to aim to be a bit more unique.
Ultimately, Dern is a pretty good play at 8.6k and I expect her to score well in a win. With some pure ceiling questions in this particular matchup, plus the public ownership, I don’t mind pivoting away on occasion.
Jandiroba at 7.6k will be a great DK target if she wins, but it’s tough to pick her outright.
At the same time, the first fight was competitive and this one could be too. Jandiroba could land takedowns. I only think she’d win a super close fight but that is on the table, and she’s not a huge dog on the moneyline.
We’re still probably looking at 100 significant strikes in five rounds at most, maybe three takedowns, and 5-8 minutes of control. She’s only +400 to win ITD. It’s worth mentioning though that Jandiroba was producing DK points at the same rate as Dern in the last fight, largely due to her takedown, and in a five-round win, she would have scored around 95 DK points.
In a win this week, I would expect the same if not more than 100, as I do think a win for Jandiroba comes with a few takedowns. At 7.6k, I’d be much more sure she would contend for the optimal lineup in a win than Dern would.
I’m guessing Jandiroba will also be much lower owned. Though the fight is competitive, most will see Dern winning the last one and I think most will lean toward Dern this week. At the very least we won’t see a lot of passion toward Jandiroba.
So if she projects to be leverage against Dern as well, Jandiroba is a solid secondary DK target. I don’t think she will win but there are paths, and some that score well. She’d be one easy way to mix up a construction without sacrificing ceiling.
I lean toward Dern in the matchup outright but for the price tag and path to victory, Jandiroba is still worth exposure in the secondary range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dern by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov -614, Bautista +460
Odds to end ITD: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov 9.6k, Bautista 6.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar Nurmagomedov will be looking to take a step towards another UFC title fight after dropping a very close decision to bantamweight GOAT Merab Dvalishvilli earlier this year.
Umar is really good and if Merab didn’t exist, he would be champion of this weight class as he is clearly better than everyone else in this division.
Umar is a world class grappler. He can strike a bit too though. On the feet, he is very kick oriented and a range controller. I never considered him to have much power, but he did knock out Barcelos so maybe he does. I think his striking is good and he has a lot of speed. He lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.15 in return so his metrics are great.
Umar just seems to be very hard to hit too. He is defending strikes at 60 percent and stays out of danger with his understanding of range and in / out movement.
Umar is a really skilled grappler. He lands 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and is one of the best grapplers in this weight class. He has good takedowns and is fully capable of getting the back and riding position. He likes to mat return from the back kind of like Merab Dvalishvilli. He also can put hooks in and end fights with RNC as he did just that against Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Almost all of Umar’s finishes have been by RNC so that is his greatest finishing threat.
Umar’s defensive grappling is also very strong. Merab landed 7 of 30 takedowns attempted and only obtained 2:22 of control vs Umar. That basically shows that Umar has elite defensive grappling considering he only conceded 2:22 of control on 30 takedown attempts from the best volume wrestler in the sport’s history in Merab.
I also consider Umar’s cardio borderline elite. He gassed out Cory Sandhagen and he only mildly slowed down against Merab who usually breaks everyone.
Umar will be taking on UFC veteran Mario Bautista who is coming off a big win over the debuting Patchy Mix. The win hasn’t aged well as Mix looked bad in his most recent matchup and lost again.
Bautista is a solid fighter. He has sneakily won eight straight fights.
Capable of fighting out of both stances, Bautista is kind of a freestyle fighter. He will strike a bit and grapple a bit. He has really good cardio which is probably his greatest strength.
Bautista is a competent striker. He lands 6.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.45 in return. I don’t think Bautista is particularly skilled on the feet, but he is decent and generally puts on a high pace. He landed 129 significant strikes against Jin Soo Son in three rounds which was impressive. He also landed 173 significant strikes against Patchy Mix.
Bautista has had other fights like against Miles Johns where he fought at a much lower pace. However, I generally expect Bautista to fight with a pretty high work rate. He can also clinch up, and he is good at mixing in elbows in the clinch. He did this a lot in his fight against Jay Perrin.
Bautista is also a decent grappler. Bautista lands 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing takedowns and riding position against weak grapplers. I don’t consider him a great offensive wrestler though and decent scramblers should avoid being taken down or controlled by him. He is skilled though. He has submitted a few opponents in the UFC.
Bautista defends takedowns at 67 percent which is decent and he scrambles up pretty well when taken down. There are split second opportunities to take his back though and he has been submitted once in his UFC debut against Cory Sandhagen. I overall do consider him a decent scrambler though. He can be taken down against the cage though.
Overall, Bautista is just a solid well-rounded fighter. He can strike at a high pace and he can grapple pretty well. He won’t gas and doesn’t have many holes in general. His main issue is that he isn’t elite anywhere which will likely hinder his chances to ever really contend for a belt.
I also just see that as the problem for Bautista in this matchup against Umar. I don’t think Bautista is better than Umar at anything. On the feet, I think Umar is better, especially defensively. Bautista conceded 90 significant strikes to Da’Mon Blackshear and 122 to Patchy Mix. He is now fighting Umar who is the best striker that he has ever faced. Go look at Bautista’s record and he has sneakily not fought many strikers. I think he can be competitive with Umar but that’s about it.
I also don’t think Bautista can have any grappling success vs Umar. I mean not even Merab had real grappling success against Umar so I don’t see Bautista having any. Conversely, I think Umar can likely land a few takedowns here and probably get the back as well. Perhaps a submission could happen for Umar but I will pick Bautista to survive.
Bautista is a good fighter who may not get completely blown out in any specific area against Umar. However, Bautista will probably not really win any area of the fight either. So my guess is that Bautista maybe has some competitive moments but ultimately gets moderately outstruck and outwrestled to lose a clean decision.
—
On DraftKings, Nurmagomedov is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k.
On one hand, he’s costly and may not project to smash with the fight being only three rounds, and -230 to go the distance. It’s a real risk in that sense to target Umar heavily.
At the same time, he’s crushed on DK thus far, even in three round fights, scoring 118 and 105 in decisions, and 114, 105 and 112 in finishes.
I have some hesitations here, being that the fight is likely to go three rounds. Also, I respect Bautista as a fighter and think he could compete with Nurmagomedov standing to a degree, and maybe could even hurt him on occasion.
However, Nurmagomedov is landing 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and we saw Blackshear take him down four times on seven attempts a couple of years ago. Umar will have similar upside, and landing 3-5 takedowns in three rounds is pretty viable.
Maybe Bautista survives it, which I’m not even sold on, but even if he does, Umar could rack up control time, ground strikes and potentially reach 100 points anyways.
I do think playing into the lower 9ks and 8ks makes sense this week, with guys like Aspinall, Hamdy, Almeida, Dern, etc. You don’t have to pay up to 9.6k and there really isn’t a guarantee that Nurmagomedov separates from the field.
But thus far, he’s shown a 105 point floor in wins, and probably carries one of the higher floors in a win on the slate outright. If you have the means to pay up for him, he’s absolutely in play and rates out among the safest options on the board.
Bautista is priced down to 6.6k and won’t rate out well.
He will need to defend takedowns, strike, and hurt Umar most likely. We have seen Umar hurt before, which is my only real hesitation here. Bautista is a legit striker so variance is not out of the question.
However, Nurmagomedov is still absorbing 2.15 sig. strikes per minute and likely earns control here for minutes at a time. Bautista is a big dog and +800 to win ITD.
While nothing is a guarantee, I’d lean against playing Bautista this week. There are too many total fights to chase huge dogs like this one, and I think there are a handful of other cheap dogs who I’d prefer to take a flier on.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
Fight Odds: Almeida -187, Volkov +159
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Almeida 8.8k, Volkov 7.4k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Alexander Volkov’s rounding out his 9th year on the active roster and realistically should be on 5-fight win streak after getting homered last time out against Gane in the rematch – he’s 12-5 in the UFC and 38-11 as a pro. Jailton Almeida’s a Contender Series alum who started out at 205 lbs but has been up at heavyweight the last couple years, now hovering around the top 5 – he’s 8-1 in the UFC and 22-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Volkov comes from a kickboxing background and has established himself as one of the best strikers in the heavyweight division.
His volume and accuracy numbers are very solid over a large sample, landing 5 SLpM at 57%. In that, it’s really his core competency as he’s long and his pressure/pace can really get to guys over the course of his fights. Not to mention that he’s also one of the best pure technical boxers in the division.
He’s only finished 6 of his 12 UFC wins via KO but don’t let that fool you as Volkov does have power for the division. He’s just not a guy who will throw these big over-hand rights but as touched on, is very accurate and possesses excellent straight shots.
Despite losing a UD to Gane in the first outing, he was still only outstruck at distance 134 to 115 and landed on Gane at a 47% clip – was effectively outstruck no doubt about it but no other opponent has been able to land on Gane at the type of clip before – the margins obviously tightened up much more in the rematch where both guys landed big shots.
Defensively is where he’s not picture perfect as he can stand flat-footed at times which can lead to him being hit clean when opponents enter. But he still only eats 3 SApM at 54% and does defend at distance at 59% though, which is better and he’s generally not getting volumed up.
In the aggregate, his chin has been solid having only been KO’d twice in 49 pro fights, additionally at heavyweight which is a sound historic.
With all that being said, Volkov is one of the more potent strikers in the division and has outlanded every single UFC opponent at distance outside of Gane in extended fights. Opponents will have to clip Volkov or be of an elite caliber to beat him standing.
We have essentially no footage on Almeida really striking or in extended distance exchanges so there isn’t much to say.
In the bit I have seen, he does appear capable as a bigger/mobile guy – decent leg kicks, front kicks, high kicks and some explosive shots.
He has eight pro wins via strikes but seven of them have been TKOs in which I would assume the majority of those are positional.
He did hurt Spivac on one of the latter stand up exchanges in the last fight though.
But his general acumen, pacing, defense and cardio in an extended striking affair (or moderately extended distance exchanges at all really) is still essentially a question mark despite having 9 UFC and 25 pro fights under his belt which is kind of crazy.
How it plays out: There’s really not much to say here given our lack of sample on Almeida standing. He could potentially feint a TD shot and land something upstairs on Volkov but given the sample we do have of Volkov and what he’s been able to do on the feet over the course of his UFC career, it’s hard to project Almeida winning striking exchanges at any meaningful rate. Additionally, if Almeida doesn’t finish, his TDs aren’t coming or they stop working in a more extended scenario, Volkov knocks him out in all likelihood.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Being a kickboxer by trade, Volkov doesn’t wrestle much, landing 0.6 TDs per 15 minutes at 66%.
He did mix it up and landed a couple TDs on Gane last time out though for the first time in five years, which was interesting to see and won the 3rd round cleanly from top position.
But he defends TDs at 72% which is pretty solid numerically and if you remove the Blaydes fight (one of the better wrestlers in the division, landed 14 takedowns on Volkov skewing his metrics), Volkov actually defends TDs at upwards of 90%.
He also stuffed all 16 of Tybura’s TDAs which was also impressive considering Tybura is an above-average wrestler by heavyweight standards – granted Tybura gassed early on.
He also did well with the early shots of Romanov that most haven’t dealt well with.
However, the issue is when he is taken down, he’s gotten controlled.
– Johnson fight – wasn’t taken down but knocked down and controlled in the first.
– Nelson fight – taken down early and controlled in the 1st for 3 minutes.
– Werdum fight – taken down 3 times and controlled for 6+ minutes.
– Blaydes fight – taken down 14 times and controlled for 20 minutes of a 25-minute fight.
He is a BJJ brown belt I believe and did show solid sub defense against Werdum though which is impressive (Werdum probably the best submission grappler in UFC heavyweight history).
But against Aspinall, he got taken down twice without any real resistance. He was able to work up on the first due to Aspinall attempting a kimura from a bad position. But on the second, he got Volkov with a straight armbar quickly.
Gane was also able to take him down a couple times last time out which wasn’t the best of looks and ultimately aided in how the fight was scored – correct or not.
He’s had two ground-based stoppages recently though in pounding out Romanov and getting a top side Ezekial choke over Tuivasa which is kind of hilarious so he’s not incapable should he gain top positions.
The floor is Almeida’s bread and butter as this is where he gets the job done in essentially all of his fights.
He doesn’t waste much time in terms of getting fights to the ground as he’ll shoot within 15 seconds with regularity. Despite being a longer, bigger guy, his wrestling is good and has shown he can secure TDs from both the body lock and the legs.
He’s also been very efficient with them in securing within the UFC at 60% to date.
We have seen guys work up under him, but it’s been to no avail as they find themselves right back down shortly after. By and large, his control is very good as a BJJ black belt and a processed grappler.
What he does specifically well is forcing his opponents to go where he wants them to go.
He does a great job in terms of controlling wrists and wrestle rides to set up his passing to the back or mount – he’ll also supplement ground strikes which is always good to see – if guys don’t want to give it up, he’ll just pound them out.
Defensively, we did Nasrudinov have some earlier grind success, but Almeida was able to work up and get going on his offense.
Almeida still hasn’t fought a very high level of competition in the aggregate from a ground perspective but despite the final result against Blaydes, he tossed Blaydes around for the better part of five minutes who’s a really strong wrestler and Blaydes had no answer.
Most recently, he was taken down with a throw from Spivac early where he spent some time on the bottom but largely controlled posture well and was able to sweep – he also fell off the back at another point ending up on the bottom but got to a hip and worked up.
Overall, Almeida’s a stud on the ground and one of the more cerebral holistic heavyweight floor players I’ve ever seen to be honest between his physicality, wrestling, chaining and submission ability.
How it plays out: This is where there is a decided advantage for Almeida. Despite referencing Volkov’s respectable TDD mark, it’s been the faster, more explosive, drive through types of TDs that have given him the biggest issues which is ultimately what Almeida profiles to provide here. Almeida’s just a lot quicker and he will get to the legs of Volkov. While Aspinall is the champion, how easily Volkov got subbed there is highly alarming in relation to this matchup.
Fun scrap as I’ve been a fan of both guys and respect what they bring to the table. I mean this is about as binary as it possibly gets. Either Almeida is able to get the TDs, run Volkov/grind him out or Volkov will be able to survive (because he’s going to get taken down here, fairly confident in saying that), gas Almeida out and put him away. Despite giving credence to Volkov for surviving Werdum back in the day, that was at the end Werdum’s rope and Werdum was overtly trying to pass there. He’s now getting a guy in Almeida who’s much quicker, more athletic, who’s going to look to pass guard immediately. I just don’t see that going well for Volkov transitionally. But as noted, Volkov has a large striking edge and is much more proven in extended fights so there’s absolutely ways for this to go wrong for Almeida. I just don’t think Volkov will be able to keep him at bay and also be able to survive personally.
—
On DraftKings, this is among the more fun fights on the slate given the binary nature.
Almeida has been DraftKings gold for a large part of his career, and I’d argue he can be viewed among the top overall targets on the slate once again.
In wins, Almeida has scored 115, 99, 135, 104, 125, 121, 114 and 118 which is absolutely elite. Granted, these fights are ending quickly, and the one that did not end quickly, Almeida gassed and got TKOd. So there are still elements in his profile to be cautious with.
But when Almeida wins, it’s going to come from early grappling domination most likely, and that’s the best way to score on DK.
Here, he’s fighting a legit kickboxer in Volkov who could potentially light him up at distance. Almeida needs to wrestle.
Almeida is -160 to win ITD which is one of the best lines on the slate, and he’s honestly cheap at 8.8k. With the strength of the slate and this range, it’s also possible he’s not pure chalk, as many will prioritize Dern/Aspinall, or potentially pay up to Umar/Amorim.
Personally, I think we should be in on Almeida this week for upside. Sure, he might lose, but that’s only added merit to targeting Volkov as the dog as well. I want exposure to Almeida at 8.8k in win cases, and he’s still a sizable favorite at -225 to win.
You don’t have to make him your number one fighter on the entire slate, but Almeida rates out among the best this week for the price.
Volkov at 7.4k is a strong leverage target.
The issue is that he’ll probably be held down for the entirety of the first round, or maybe more. He won’t be scoring many or any points per minute, and he’ll likely just lose.
But if he can survive.. If he can force a round two or three, it is extremely possible that Almeida looks visibly tired and cannot land takedowns any more. At that point, Volkov can probably light him and potentially get a TKO stoppage.
Volkov is only +159 here and bet up from +187 this week, and he’s +285 to win ITD which is not bad for the price tag. He won’t carry a ton of ownership and should be nice leverage against Almeida.
To me, this is a spot you need some exposure. Classify him as a secondary target most likely that benefits from leverage. There are other dogs who I like a lot more to win outright, but I like being in on binary fights and Volkov is skilled enough to pull off the upset if he can extend the fight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almeida by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Fight Odds: Rakic -112, Murzakanov -104
Odds to end ITD: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Murzakanov 8.3k, Rakic 7.9k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Aleksandar Rakic hasn’t been the most active guy in recent years due to injury but has established himself as a top 15 205er. He’s just struggled to get over the hump when fighting the upper echelon guys and is now riding a 3-fight skid – he’s 6-4 in the UFC and 14-5 as a pro. Azamat Murzakanov is a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season who hasn’t been the most active guy since joining the roster but has kept his undefeated record intact – he’s 5-0 in the UFC and 15-0 as a pro.
The striking component:
Rakic is a bigger 205er who works in a more fluid, kickboxing-esque type of style.
Statistically, he lands 4.2 SLpM at 50% and 4.4 DLpM at 42% which are around the divisional average. Rakic has also shown power components with a 64% KO rate as a pro.
In the UFC, we’ve seen him score some vicious KOs with his hands against Clark, and he landed one of the nicer punch/head kick combos ever against Manuwa. He also significantly compromised Ledet and Smith with leg kicks.
With that, the guy has a diverse arsenal in what he can throw while also being effective.
Outside of his power, one of Rakic’s better core competencies is that he’s fast and a good athlete for 205lbs. But I’d say the main issue I’ve had with Rakic over the years outside of not being a pace machine is his defense at 51%.
He can limit damage but there are points in multiple fights where it has lapsed.
It hasn’t been overtly tested given some quicker finishes and heavy grinding, but he does have a tendency to get reckless at points, can leave himself exposed on pocket entry and has gotten his legs chewed up in a few fights.
We also saw him get dropped by Clark albeit being able to recover quickly, and was more recently KO’d by Prochazka despite winning a healthy number of exchanges there. He does still have a positive distance differential of +0.9/minute though and is coming off fighting Ankalaev competitively albeit being one step behind.
Overall, Rakic is a respectable striker, but we saw some of his defensive issues catch up to him against Prochazka – Prochazka is an animal though in fairness who finishes/breaks essentially everyone so it’s also hard to hold his feet to the fire too much.
Murzakanov isn’t the tallest 205er in the world standing 5’10” but he is dense and compact.
He’s a Master of Sport in hand-to-hand combat but based on how he fights in MMA, he’s more a blitz striker who will stay light on his feet using a lot of in and out movement – similar to a karate fighter in a lot of ways but he’s not much of a kicker.
As a southpaw, he’s got a nice lead right that he likes to follow with an overhand or straight lefts. He’ll mix in uppercuts as well, but this is his primary striking combination.
In general, he’s not very diverse in what he does but it’s proven effective for him throughout his career so far. As per his results of scoring 11 KOs, he’s fast, explosive and possesses a lot of power in the weight class.
In totality, he hasn’t faced a ton of resistance standing outside of him getting dropped early in his fight with Sakaev (0-3 fighter) but he recovered and found a finish of his own shortly after.
The striking with Tafon was competitive but Tafon was winning – he landed a big flying knee on Tafon early in the 3rd round but was most likely on his way to losing a decision if he didn’t land the big blow.
But he struck competitively with Jacoby who’s a solid kickboxer which I found impressive – however, based on round sequencing, if he doesn’t knock Jacoby down in the 2nd, he probably loses that round and the fight as he lost the 3rd, slowing down in that round.
On the Contender Series, he landed a nice right hook to put Scheffel down and dropped Clark with a body shot.
Most recently, he was just a step ahead of a more plodding Menifield, allowing him to get off on his blitzes, ultimately putting Menifield down in the 2nd – similar against Ribeiro clipping him earlier.
So, Murzakanov ultimately does what he does well, is dangerous and the Jacoby fight’s a good reference point to say he can strike competitively with a quality striker. But he’s slowed down twice now in extended fights that he’s faced effective resistance in.
How it plays out: Off the top, Rakic will realize a healthy size advantage here of 6” in height and 7” in reach. But as noted, Murzakanov being undersized for the division hasn’t held him back all that much and one of the other interesting things to note is that Rakic hasn’t fought any conventional southpaws outside of Ankalaev last time out. While Ankalaev is a more established talent and much bigger than Murzakanov, it was the left hand of Ankalaev that realized him the most amount of success there. I also think Murzakanov profiles to pressure more which should aid optically and has more power of the two. For those reasons, I favor Murzakanov on the feet but Rakic moves a healthy amount and tends to limit extended exchanges in a vacuum so I can also see the striking playing pretty competitively on minutes here – coupled with me liking the kicks of Rakic.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Rakic is a striker by nature and his TD metrics leave a bit less to be desired, only landing 0.7 TDs per 15 minutes at 23%.
However, he’s shown some good things on the ground, most notably in the Smith fight where he racked up over 12+ minutes of control time. He’s very positionally aware and has shown to be strong from top position when he gets there whilst mixing in strikes – we saw this against Ledet as well.
He did struggle to take Volkan down but pretty much everyone has outside of Cormier and Krylov, so no real shame there – did get some grind time from back ride though. We also saw him take the 2nd via wrestling against Blachowicz.
Defensively, he stuffs at 85% and has only been taken down three times in the UFC – two of which came in his debut where he was able to work up relatively quickly, and once by Prochazka which wasn’t the best of looks but was able to work up.
So, we don’t have a super large sample of Rakic on the ground but in the times he’s been there, I like what I’ve seen and he’s been adamant about his wrestling being one of the most improved components of his game in recent years – although the bonehead didn’t even attempt one TD against Prochazka which was all world stupid.
I’m unsure of Murzakanov’s wrestling/grappling credentials but he’s competed in sambo before and has mixed TDs into some of his fights.
From an acumen standpoint, I don’t think he’s a very good wrestler by any means but is okay I guess – this was a contributing factor in his decision win over Inocente as well.
On top, he’s got one win via submission, but I couldn’t find that fight and it was over a 3-11 opponent so take that for what you will. But in the Inocente fight, he was largely just “lay and pray”. He got swept in that fight and was threatened with a couple leg locks but got out of them.
In his debut, he went 1/5 on TDs against Tafon but Tafon was able to work up quickly on the one occasion he was taken down. He then went 0/1 against Clark – he landed some good ground and pound in that fight, but it was off him hurting Clark in comparison to landing TDs.
He took Jacoby down briefly on a decent entry, but Jacoby was able to scramble up quickly. Jacoby took him down once late in the fight, but he got up quickly and the control time Jacoby accrued came against the fence.
Outside of that, he’s never really been wrestled or on the bottom so assessing his defensive floor game is still pretty difficult and he’s not a fighter you can project much offensive upside for.
How it plays out: Despite the poor wrestling metrics of Rakic, I would ultimately give him more upside here. He’s going to be the much bigger guy and Murzakanov has only faced a total of 12 TDAs thus far in the UFC so he hasn’t been tested all that much – coupled with him not fighting many base ground fighters – Clark being the only one and Clark didn’t shoot in that fight. That’s not to say that Rakic is a base ground fighter but as alluded, he has realized top success in a handful of his UFC fights and is winning 86% of control time positions. That said, will Rakic wrestle? I’m not sure. If he does, will he have success with it? I’m also not sure. Nonetheless, the upside is still potentially there for him.
Interesting scrap as you have Murzakanov who’s recently broken into the top 10 and Rakic coming off three straight losses – albeit to former champions who he also took rounds from despite the final results. For the striking reasons mentioned above, I do lean towards Murzakanov, coupled with thinking he has more finish upside of the two. That said, Rakic is his first top 10 opponent so this is an honest step up. If he doesn’t finish Rakic or can’t produce big moments and this goes to the scorecards, he could get outmaneuvered or this is now just a greasy decision so my confidence interval on Murzakanov is pretty low.
—
On DraftKings, this is an ugly HW mid-range fight with classic boom/bust potential.
Murzakanov is priced at 8.3k and will likely be the preferred fighter publicly, considering his stat sheet. He has won all five fights in the UFC and four by knockout, scoring 112, 100, 73, 96, and 72.
From a pure game theory standpoint, my gut would lean against playing much Murzakanov this week. It is undeniable that this is a step up in competition, against an opponent who doesn’t absorb a lot of strikes, and is way taller and longer.
So yeah, Murzakanov could score a knockout. He could score 100 DK points again. Rakic can be hurt. But I view Murzakanov as ultra-boom or bust, and he’s only +150 to win ITD.
With a larger portfolio, playing Murzakanov as a classic secondary target and coming in near the field makes sense. You don’t need to let this one kill you. At the same time, I think underweight is worth real consideration as his box scores will draw attention, and his window to hit is still thin against a tougher opponent like Rakic.
Rakic is priced at 7.9k and is not someone I classically target.
We’ve seen some ceiling performances in TKOs, but we’ve seen some real ugly scores in decisions, including 52 and 55 DK points.
In this matchup, Rakic is +300 to win ITD which is OK, but not special. It’s hard to quantify his KO chances to be honest. And he might or might not wrestle.
Again from a game theory standpoint, I could argue Rakic is the better play. He could be significantly lower owned than Murzakanov, and he’s also way bigger, still a fine striker, and maybe a better wrestler. There’s just not a guarantee of a ceiling in a win, which is tricky, and I kind of lean toward a lower scoring decision.
With a large portfolio, I’d probably just come in near the field here and not worry too much about trying to take a stand. There’s too many unknowns, and too much variance. The price is solid though, as should be the ownership.
My gut feeling is we still see a semi-slower paced striking affair and that neither man will score super well without one huge shot landed.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rakic by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld
Fight Odds: Haqparast -109, Salkilld -107
Odds to end ITD: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Haqparast 8.1k, Salkilld 8.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what should be a very high paced and entertaining fight here between Nasrat Haqparast and Quillan Salkilld.
Nasrat has probably not met my expectations as I once considered him a solid prospect. However, I still consider him a decent fighter and he is definitely UFC level.
Nasrat is mostly a boxer. He lands 6.40 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.01 in return. He defends strikes at 63 percent. Standing out of the southpaw stance, Nasrat has fast hands and a really good straight left. He also has moderate power and has several knockdowns spread out in his UFC career. He recently knocked out Jamie Mullarkey which was a good performance.
I also consider Nasrat pretty tough and durable. He has been in a lot of wars and has only been knocked down / out once against Drew Dober. He will also fight very hard for 15 minutes. He is hittable though.
Nasrat only lands 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes so offensive wrestling isn’t a huge path to victory for him, but I do think he could land some takedowns against below-average grapplers.
Nasrat also defends takedowns at 84 percent. I consider his defensive grappling and scrambling competent. However, he hasn’t faced a ton of grapplers. Dan Hooker took him down 3 times on 7 attempts back in 2021. Nasrat defended the takedowns well at times but he did get his back stuck against the cage. Also, when Nasrat was actually grounded, I did not like his get ups at all.
Since that fight, only Jared Gordon has tried to take Nasrat down. Nasrat defended all 13 takedowns that Gordon attempted. However, Gordon was kind of half attempting the takedowns and I am still a little skeptical of Nasrat if he actually gets grounded.
Nasrat will be taking on Quillan Salkilld. Salkilld is an Australian fighter who is 9-1 professionally. He has won his first three UFC affiliated fights but his competition has been lower tier so Nasrat will be a step up for competition here.
I think Salkilld is strongest as a pace grappler. In his two UFC decisions against Gauge Young and Yanal Ashmouz, he landed 9 of 22 and 8 of 23 takedowns attempted respectively. I do love that pace.
I do think Salkilld is a mildly skilled wrestler but he definitely lacks in some technique and efficiency in his takedowns, and I do think he lacks physicality in certain positions. I don’t think he will outwrestle the higher tiers of this division.
However, Salkilld is super tenacious and he will absolutely beat low to mid level tiers of this division with his pace grappling. He has a decent double leg and uses a lot of tall man techniques to take the back. He can right the back with clasped hands and can also put hooks in and threaten with submissions. He is a bit sloppy though and can fall off from top position at times though. He also tired out a bit against Ashmouz and started getting tuned up a bit in round 3.
As a striker, Salkilld is competent but not great. He can land some decent kicks and some straight punches. He isn’t bad. He outlanded a mildly okay striker in Gauge Young 70-57 at range. However, he still keeps his chin in the air and can get landed on clean. I do think he is going to get knocked out by more physical and faster strikers.
Still though, Salkilld attempts a ton of takedowns and is a mildly skilled grappler so he should be able to secure wins here and there.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this should be a fun, high paced war.
On the feet, I do think I favor Nasrat to a degree. I think he is a more experienced striker and is faster than Salkilld. I also still worry about Salkilld getting knocked out and he is a bit of a sucker for a quick straight rear hand. So Nasrat can surely win this fight and give Salkilld issues.
Still though, I don’t think Salkilld is in over his head standing. He has a little pop himself and is tough and not bad on the feet. Even Landon Quinones struck competitively with Nasrat. So Salkilld randomly finding a way to win on the feet wouldn’t shock me.
Furthermore, and the reason why I lean Salkilld lately is that Nasrat seriously looked bad on his back vs Hooker. That fight was forever ago so perhaps Nasrat has improved his get ups. However, a few takedowns here could honestly lead to a clean win for Salkilld. Nasrat may not be able to work his way back to his feet.
I don’t think takedowns will come easy for Salkilld as Nasrat’s TDD is not bad. However, Salkilld is probably going to attempt 20 takedowns here and Nasrat has a tendency to get caught against the cage. My guess is Salkilld is able to muster up a few takedowns which will probably give him the win here.
—
On DraftKings, this is a tough fight to predict but one that does have fantasy appeal.
Both fighters are priced at 8.1k, though Haqparast is a slight favorite at -109, which is a drop from earlier this week where he was closer to -120.
Salkilld arguably has more fantasy upside though, given his grappling oriented style, and I think he will be my pick from a DraftKings perspective. He’s coming off 117 point decision win with eight takedowns, and previously scored 129 in his UFC debut with a quick win bonus.
While I don’t care about the latter, I do care about the former, and Salkilld had previously smashed on DWCS with another nine takedowns landed against Gauge Young. He’s attempted 22 and 23 takedowns in those past two decisions, which is absolutely elite.
Whether Salkilld is some technical marvel is another question, and in his most recent fight against Ashmouz, he did look tired late in the fight where he was still diving on takedowns, and he looked pretty vulnerable. I’d certainly worry about him in this spot against Haqparast if he can’t land takedowns and gets tired.
In some ways, you can argue this is a binary fight with Haqparast being a more experienced and skilled boxer, who throws elite volume. Salkilld will want to wrestle at a high volume.
I can see either man winning, though I initially favored Haqparast, I’m starting to dial that back. He didn’t look great on the bottom against Dan Hooker and ultimately Salkilld is relentless.
If Salkilld wins, I am expecting another 6-10 takedowns landed, control time, and strikes mixed in. He seems primed for another 100 points on DraftKings potentially.
Salkilld is only +305 to win ITD and I wouldn’t expect a finish, but I don’t really think we need one. Salkild is arguably one of the best targets on this entire slate in a win case, and I think he could be viewed as a priority.
This is a difficult fight, and he might very well lose, but in a near 50 percent win expectation I think having moderate exposure is likely the right call.
Haqparast at 8.1k doesn’t rate out as well because he’s striking based, and likely won’t wrestle. He’s also only +305 to win ITD, though of the two I would lean toward him for finishing equity.
Haqparast has landed 135, 146 and 171 significant strikes in three of his last four fights, which is also pretty elite. While this may be “striker vs. grappler” I do think there’s a very real possibility that Haqparast beats the crap out of Salkilld if Salkilld cannot land takedowns.
I can’t project Haqparast for 150 sig. strikes here as he won’t be given that same opportunity to strike, but if he wins, it will be because he’s winning the boxing exchanges, and therefore also probably winning the wrestling exchanges. I think he has sneaky finishing equity/KD equity and wouldn’t be shocked to see him exceed value as well.
Ultimately Haqparast just does not rate out as strongly as Salkilld due to his fighting style, and arguably has a worse floor/ceiling which makes him less of a priority. But I would want exposure to him in a win and still consider him a solid secondary target, and it wouldn’t be wrong to prioritize him ahead of Salkilld if you have a stronger matchup take.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Salkilld by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ikram Aliskerov vs. JunYong Park
Fight Odds: Aliskerov -250, Park +208
Odds to end ITD: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Aliskerov 9k, Park 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
This should be a fun and high quality fight between JunYong Park and Ikram Aliskerov.
I want to praise Park for his last win against Ismail Naurdiev. Park was blasted with an illegal strike in the second round and it legitimately knocked him out. In a world where fighters will milk illegal strikes that barely land and take a DQ win (cough Cody Brundage cough), Park continued didn’t do that. Park chose to continue and beat the breaks out of Naurdiev for the remainder of the fight.
Honestly, I don’t think anyone would have blamed Park for not continuing. I was actually shocked that he continued. It just speaks to how tough Park is. He is a true fighter.
Park will now have a tough test against the dangerous Ikram Aliskerov. Park has generally put together a solid UFC run. He is 9-3 with two of his losses coming to Gregory Rodrigues and Anthony Hernandez. He actually nearly finished both of those guys too. His other loss was to Muniz which is a fight that I thought Park absolutely deserved to win. So Park has had a good chance to win every fight that he has been in thus far.
I actually don’t mind Park as he is an aggregate producer of offense. He will land strikes and look to land takedowns at a decently high rate. He is actually willing to do things which is good.
I consider Park best as a boxer. He lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.59in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. Park has some tight boxing in his straight punching and has a nice jab. He also has a good low kick that he mixes in. I think he also has fast hands. He likes to come forward and push the pace on the feet.
Park is also a decent offensive wrestler. He lands 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 4 takedowns per fight. I consider him a competent wrestler who can outgrapple below average competition. He actually has three UFC wins by RNC.
Park defends takedowns at 57 percent. I don’t think he has the best TDD and decent grapplers can definitely have success against him and take him down as Muniz showed.
However, Park is still competent. He actually defended 21 of 24 takedowns attempted against Eryk Anders. He also gave Hernandez fits with his get ups. I like that Park at least tries to work up, and I think his get ups are decent which is good. He likes to give up his back and work up immediately. He is also aware of hooks coming in on the way up and generally doesn’t allow hooks to be placed in. I think he is pretty hard to control on the mat.
Park will be taking on UFC veteran Ikram Aliskerov. After suffering his first UFC loss by quick knockout against Robert Whittaker, Aliskerov bounced back with a first round knockout in a softball matchup against Andre Muniz.
Before the Whittaker loss, Aliskerov had won three straight UFC fights and all by first round finish.
Aliskerov is 16-2 professionally and is from Dagestan, and has a Sambo background. Like most fighters from that region and background, Aliskerov is a pretty well-rounded fighter and has a good skillset. His only losses have come to Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker. There is no shame in that although I do question his durability to a degree.
The best part of Aliskerov’s game is probably his wrestling. He is a typical Dagestani wrestler. He will pursue takedowns, look to leg lace, and he will clasp his hands and mat return opponents. He also is submission capable and submitted his opponent on the Contender Series. I do like his grappling, especially early in fights. I don’t think it is elite. However, he will continue to outwrestle competition in the UFC.
Aliskerov is also a pretty dangerous striker. He knocked Phil Hawes dead, and he has displayed power in the regionals as well. I don’t totally love his volume. However, he pressures well and can swing hard in the pocket.
Aliskerov’s defensive wrestling looks strong and he actually shrugged off Khamzat Chimaev in round one on the regionals which is impressive. I haven’t seen a ton of his defensive wrestling though. However, shrugging off Chimaev early is no joke and given his background and offensive wrestling game, I am guessing it is pretty good. Overall, I just think Aliskerov is a pretty good fighter.
I do want to see Aliskerov in extended fights more though. All of his UFC fights have ended in the first round. In his Eagle UFC fight against Nah-shon Burrell, he won the first two rounds easily with a mix of strikes and grappling. He then lost round three by moderately tiring out. He wasn’t able to obtain takedowns and top control as effectively in round three.
It wasn’t the worst gas out ever, but I do think Aliskerov could lose some fights to guys who could stop his grappling and who are better volume strikers. It just made me semi skeptical of his ceiling in this promotion.
That’s why I think this is going to be a competitive fight here because Park definitely fits into the mold of fighters who can anti grapple a bit, strike in volume, and has a good gas tank.
On the feet, I do think Aliskerov could win the early exchanges and potentially hurt Park. However, as the fight goes on I actually favor Park on the feet with his volume and cardio. Aliskerov also has suspect durability. He was knocked dead by Chimaev and Whittaker. Burrell also badly hurt him in round three. I honestly think Park has a chance for a KO here.
I do think Aliskerov can get takedowns here especially early. I think his wrestling is pretty strong and Park can be taken down. Park does give up his back and scramble up hard though. If Aliskerov doesn’t quickly submit Park, I don’t think Aliskerov will easily outwrestle and control Park for 15 minutes.
I tend to just think Aliskerov will have early success and Park will then turn the tides. That could honestly result for a finish by either guy or a close decision. I think Aliskerov will probably swing hard early and eventually wrestle and have some success. However, I expect Park to stay tough and weather the early storm and then start having his own success.
I think this is a really close fight. I have really gone back and forth here. I definitely think Aliskerov will do well early but man Park has a crazy pace and is tough to deal with and Aliskerov has suspect durability. I am going to pick Park to get a come from behind win here.
—
On DraftKings, although I like Aliskerov as a fighter, I’m not sold on prioritizing him as a fantasy target.
The reality is, none of his five tracked fights have gone past one round. Does that make him an elite early finisher? In part yes, but Park has not been knocked down one time in 12 tracked fights.
Here Aliskerov is +125 to win ITD. It’s still a decent finishing prop, but I feel a bit uncomfortable relying on him to get a quick KO. I suppose you can argue that he may wrestle here, and if so, he’ll carry additional paths to victories and an even higher ceiling. But Aliskerov hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his past four fights so it feels tough to rely on.
Either way, he’s scored 121, 110 and 108 in his three UFC wins so he will probably draw public attention. Clearly he carries upside in his style. But that upside has been tied to quick KOs, and this feels like a tougher matchup to achieve that.
I’m open to playing some Aliskerov but he feels a little more boom/bust to me than some others in this range, and I’d label him more of a secondary target this week.
Park at 7.2k has some viability, and it’s usually a bullish signal when Tim is picking an underdog to win.
Park isn’t a quitter. He’s a well-rounded, experienced fighter who will likely give Aliskerov a good test if he’s conscious.
I can’t say for sure whether Aliskerov will hurt him early, but if this fight hits rounds 2/3, I’d want a piece of Park. He’s only +400 ITD but Alikserov has already been melted in the UFC once, and Park pushes a decent pace.
I don’t know if Park is an outright standout target, but he’s quite cheap at 7.2k and carries moderate upside in a win. He’s about as low in salary as I’d go where it doesn’t feel like a major upset.
So in that sense, I like Park as a secondary option. I don’t expect to be crazy heavy on him but he has some win equity/upside at a cheap price, and is probably worth being near the field percentage or a touch over.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aliskerov by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki
Fight Odds: Klein -130, Rebecki +111
Odds to end ITD: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Klein 8.4k, Rebecki 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an entertaining matchup here in what should be a banger between Ludovit Klein and Mateusz Rebecki.
Ludovit Klein is 4-1 in his last five ,dropping his last fight to Gamrot where he was outwrestled.
I think a lot of fighters can learn from Ludovit Klein. I had never been high on Klein, but he actually impressed me in his last few matchups by simply being more aggressive.
I really liked his win against Ignacio Bahamondes. He struck competitively on the feet with the longer and bigger Bahamondes and hurt him at times. Klein also landed three takedowns and obtained six minutes of control in that fight. It was the best performance of Klein’s career thus far.
Klein then beat the crap out of an outmatched AJ Cunningham and was super aggressive in that fight. He put it on Thiago Moises and just mauled him and hurt him several times en route to a dominant decision win. He also outwrestled Moises which was nice to see. Klein then outwrestled Roosevelt Roberts most recently. The Gamrot loss was more attributed to the fact that Klein was outwrestled rather than lacking aggression. That was just a tough matchup for Klein.
Klein is a bit of a freestyle fighter, and he is a tough seasoned fighter with a lot of experience. As a striker, Klein lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.34 in return. He defends strikes at 52 percent. Those are okay metrics.
I don’t consider Klein a great striker and his striking volume has been a concern in the past. However, Klein does have some power and can generally at least have competitive exchanges which keeps him in the fight. He is competent and experienced as a striker and has outstruck guys like Devonte Smith, Mason Jones, and Ignacio Bahamondes. So he is decent as a striker. He has a good one two out of the southpaw stance and has a sneaky left head kick.
Klein can also wrestle a bit too. He lands 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of taking down guys and holding top position. He also defends takedowns at 76 percent which is solid. I thought his defensive wrestling looked good against Thiago Moises. However, I do think good wrestlers can at least land takedowns on Klein which was the case against Gamrot.
Klein is overall just a decent well-rounded fighter. He can strike a bit and wrestle a bit, has a lot of experience, and a bit of power.
Klein will be taking on Mateusz Rebecki. Rebecki is a wrestle boxer. He is an extremely physical guy and aggressive. He will come forward out of the southpaw stance and throw with bad intentions. He can hurt opponents. He mixes in a really good inside low kick as well and has a strong 1-2 combination.
I still question Rebecki’s technical striking and defense though. He lands 5.29 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.53 in return. He has taken so much damage lately man. In his last three matchups against CDF, Orolbai, and Duncan, he was badly hurt in them and absorbed over 300 significant strikes collectively in those fights. It just shows that Rebecki’s defense is suspect. I also just have concerns with his ability to take damage going forward as a fighter only has so many wars they can have.
Rebecki is also a decent wrestler and lands 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. He can land good double legs and threaten with submissions. He will also just look to beat opponents up with ground-and-pound on the mat.
Overall, Rebecki is a decent fighter. He can strike and wrestle and is dangerous with physicality. I just worry when he can’t easily ground opponents and gets stuck in a striking fight with someone more defensive than him.
That is why I slightly lean Klein in this matchup. Klein is the better technical striker and much better defensively. Rebecki just gets hit way too much and concedes a lot of big power shots. My guess is he will get hit too clean by Klein and probably hurt at some point so I favor Klein overall.
I still do think Rebecki has ways to win here. Rebecki is more aggressive than Klein at times and may just compete on volume. Rebecki could also clip Klein as well. Furthermore, Rebecki could maybe land some takedowns here. I doubt Rebecki can easily ground Klein for 15 minutes though. I just don’t like Rebecki’s control enough.
My guess here is that some takedowns will get mixed in, maybe by both men. However, the winner of the striking exchanges will probably win this fight. I am going to go with Klein to be more defensive and technical and land his power shots to a KO or a damage based decision.
—
On DraftKings, this fight has some potential and it should be fun.
I disagree with Tim a little bit on the analysis, though he’s probably right. Where I differ is that I don’t think it’s purely a defensive issue with Rebecki. The guys he’s fighting in Ferreira, Orolbai and Duncan have kind of shown to be killers.
Purely statistically, Rebecki actually defends strikes at 55 percent, versus the 52 percent of Klein, which is more of an indication that the opponents he’s facing are throwing a ton of volume in comparison to Klein.
Additionally, Rebecki is still performing well. He nearly finished Ferreira, he beat Orolbai and he hung tough with Duncan. He’s producing a good amount of offense.
Klein just excels far more in a slower paced, controlled environment. Outstriking Roosevelt Roberts 45-24 in three rounds, outstriking Thiago Moises 56-24 in three rounds, outstriking Bahamondes 56-43 in three rounds.
If Klein can make this a slow fight, he’ll win. He’ll pick Rebecki apart from the outside and maybe hurt him. If Rebecki can force a high pace, I like his chances a lot. He throws way more volume than Klein, has real power, and is probably the better wrestler.
I’m probably a bit higher on Rebecki than the public in this matchup and he’d be my preferred side on DraftKings. He’s priced at 7.8k and has scored 92, 104, 112 and 122 in his wins, with the first two being decisions.
In this matchup he is +225 to win ITD which is OK. I’m far from sure he wins this fight but I like his ability to produce offense and exceed value in a win, despite Klein probably trying to slow the pace down.
He is only a secondary option and doesn’t have to be a priority in this range, but I’m a little higher on Rebecki than others.
Klein is priced at 8.4k and probably needs a finish.
He too is +225 to win ITD which is fine, and Rebecki can be hurt. I just have issue with what Klein wants to do, which is to slow the fight down. So in decision wins, he’s scoring 86, 89, 86, 76, 60. Maybe that doesn’t fully illustrate the point but one of those wins came with two knockdowns, and another came with 10 minutes of control.
Rebecki will probably force a higher pace, meaning maybe Klein will have to do more here to win. I just don’t have a ton of faith he’ll easily knock Rebecki out, and I consider him pretty boom or bust in this matchup.
If you like Klein, you can play him. He’s a fine mix-in and hopefully won’t be too popular publicly. I view him more as a contrarian target and I don’t expect to have lots of exposure personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rebecki by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Mattheus Camilo
Fight Odds: Camilo -119, Al-Selwady +102
Odds to end ITD: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Al-Selwady 8.2k, Camilo 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty exciting fight here in the lightweight division between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo.
Al-Selwady is an American fighter who represents Palestine. He is 30 years old and is 15-4 professionally. He has a lot of good pre-UFC experience in solid regional promotions like LFA, Brave, and Fury.
Al-Selwady booked his ticket to the UFC by winning a decision on the Contender Series back in 2023. He basically outstruck his opponent and was the more technical fighter throughout.
Al-Selwady then faced Loik Radzhabov last year in his UFC debut. He was actually winning the fight by outstriking Loik a bit and mixing in some takedowns. It was competitive but Al-Selwady had just taken round two and the fight was trending in his direction. Al-Selwady was then knocked out randomly at the beginning of round three.
Al-Sewady is honestly a pretty quality fighter and is well-rounded. He comes from a Muay Thai background and then got into MMA.
As a striker, I consider Al-Sewady a sound technical striker. He can volume strike well. He does a really good job fighting going backwards and landing point scoring shots. He uses good lateral movement and footwork as well. He can mix in some really good straight punches, low kicks, and body kicks. I also consider his cardio very strong and he can fight 15 minutes with no issue.
On his Contender Series fight, Laura Sanko mentioned that Al-Sewady’s striking style reminds her of Volkanovski. I actually agree with that. He is obviously nowhere near as good as Volkanovski but he really does strike with that Volkanovski philosophy of pace, in and out, lots of movement, etc.
Al-Selwady can also grapple a bit. He has some decent takedowns but I don’t think he can dominate at the lightweight division with it. He also can wrestle defensively somewhat well also.
My main concern with Al-Selwady is his durability. His knockout loss to Loik was his fourth professional loss by knockout. That is a lot of KO losses for someone who has generally fought regional competition. He has a little power himself but I feel like he is more likely to get knocked out by UFC competition than to land knockouts himself if that makes sense.
Al-Selwady will be taking on Matheus Camilo. Camilo is a Brazilian fighter who is 9-3 professionally. He is 24 years old and this will be his second UFC fight after losing to Gabe Green in his UFC debut in a bizarre loss which I will go into more detail below. He won a high profile fight on Dana White’s “Lookin’ for a Fight” series to book his ticket to the UFC.
So Camilo has fought in random regional promotions and his competition hasn’t been great. However, the fighter he fought on Lookin’ for a Fight was a good wrestler so it was a decent win.
Camilo is basically a striker. He actually reminds me of a lightweight version of Jean Matsumoto. Like Matsumoto he is short, compact, physical, and can get aggressive and do his best work when he is walking opponents down. He is a competent boxer and has power in his hands. He has some really nasty low kicks which he has crippled fighters with. He basically will attack with flurries with his hands and mix his low kick in throughout. He can be pretty damaging and I do think he has some power.
Camilo can be low volume at times, but he generally will get aggressive at certain points in the fight. He has good shot selection and can work the body. He is also pretty fast.
Camilo is quite green and young though and I do question his quality of competition. His cardio is a bit of a concern too. I have seen him fight 15 minutes and he still fought fine in round three but he did look labored to a degree.
I also don’t think Camilo’s durability has really been tested but he does look tough. He also doesn’t really have much other offense in his game. He doesn’t wrestle a ton although he looks competent on top. He still is probably limited to winning striking fights which is tough at lightweight. He can also be taken down, but he can work up and I do think his takedown defense is improving. Good grapplers can likely exploit him though.
I do think Camilo can win fights at this level with his striking. He is also young and will likely improve. I don’t think his skillset will get him super far in this division as it takes more than competent boxing to rise through the lightweight division. However, I do think he looks UFC level and he can win some fights in the UFC and be in some fun action fights.
Camilo’s UFC debut was very strange against Gabe Green. First of all, Camilo actively wrestled which was something I had never really seen him do much. He landed a takedown and won round one very cleanly. Then Camilo landed a second takedown in round two and it looked like he was on his way to winning the fight. However, Camilo went for a triangle from top position, lost position and then proceeded to give up a soft RNC finish and lost.
It was really bizarre because I thought Camilo would prefer to strike. The finish was also bizarre too. It just seemed so easy for Green. Camilo literally just went for a lazy triangle, got passed, and then easily finished. It makes me question Camilo’s toughness, decision making, and cardio honestly. Maybe it was just a bit of randomness but I am going to flag that fight as I continue to gather more data on Camilo and evaluate him more.
As far as this matchup goes, I have gone back and forth. Al-Sewady’s durability concerns me and Camilo is more likely to win by knockout or hurt Al-Selwady than vice versa in my mind. I think Camilo very well may land more damage throughout and that could lead him to a knockout win or a damage based decision. Camilo’s calf kicks could also be a factor. I nearly picked Camilo and anyone who picks him is making a reasonable pick in my opinion.
However, I do think Al-Selwady is a more processed fighter. On the feet, Al-Selwady throws much more volume and is honestly a more technical striker. If Camilo doesn’t hurt Al-Selwady then I think Al-Selwady will be landing more throughout and just winning rounds in general. Furthermore, Al-Selwady has better cardio in my eyes and that could lead Al-Selwady to a win as well.
Furthermore, I just HATED that soft finish that Camilo conceded to Green. It just tells me that Camilo can lose fights for basically no reason. So who knows if Camilo gets tired or ends up on his back again what will happen. Al-Selwady is an alright grappler so he could maybe take advantage of a dumb decision by Camilo on the mat.
This is still close though and I went back and forth all week. I overall do think Al-Selwady is the better round winner so I will pick him but this has sketchiness written all over it.
—
On DraftKings, I don’t really know what to make of this fight and I’m not particularly high on either fighter.
I thought Al-Selwady looked pretty clunky on the feet and I don’t like his striking as much as Tim. I also noted his poor durability heading into the UFC and now coming off another KO loss, it’s hard to feel confident.
I think he has some round winning upside and wrestling equity though. He’s only +300 to win ITD.
Playing Al-Selwady is likely hoping he can land 3-4 takedowns over 15 minutes, earn some control, and maybe beat up a tired Camilo late? I do think that could exceed value at 8.2k but it’s tough to project exactly what kind of upside he carries.
The lower owned Al-Selwady is, the more I would like him. Camilo is now the favorite so Al-Selwady may be really overlooked by the public. He has some contrarian appeal in that regard and I don’t mind being near the field or a touch overweight, but he’s nothing close to a priority.
Camilo at 8k is now the slight favorite and the slight value, and more importantly he’s only +150 to win ITD.
I think you are likely betting on a knockout from Camilo here which is fine given his finishing equity. I honestly just don’t know how to feel about Camilo. He randomly wrestled last time and looked OK until he got finished.
I don’t mind betting on Camilo here for upside purposes especially as Al-Selwady has durability issues. I just have to view him as extremely boom or bust and would likely want to come in near the field to avoid taking a real stand.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Al-Selwady by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland
Fight Odds: Walker -407, Sutherland +324
Odds to end ITD: -300
DraftKings Salaries: Walker 9.1k, Sutherland 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup written by Technical Tim
If Valter Walker gets his fourth heel hook victory in a row vs Louie Sutherland this weekend, I may actually jump off a bridge. Honestly, there is a good chance he does too as Louie Sutherland doesn’t look very good.
I want to note that these guys were originally paired up to fight Mohammed Usman and Justin Tafa respectively, a couple of weeks back. However, Usman and Tafa both pulled out so now Walker and Sutherland will face each other.
The reason this Walker heel hook spree is driving me nuts is because the heavyweight division is so bad. The fact that Walker can win by heel hook three times in a row just shows how bad this division actually is. That would never work in the lighter weight classes where they actually have skill. Walker isn’t even good, it is just that the heavyweight division is so bad. I don’t even hate Walker either. I just can’t believe this keeps working for him more than anything. After this rant, maybe I will just root for the heel hook to land because it would be pretty funny and you all can make fun of me.
Anyway, Walker is a Brazilian fighter who is 27 years old and is a towering presence at 6’6” with an 81-inch reach. He is actually the brother of UFC veteran Johnny Walker. He is 13-1 professionally, and generally fought poor competition on the regionals. He is 3-1 in the UFC. His three wins have randomly both come by heel hook in round one against Don’Tale Mayes, Junior Tafa, and Kennedy Nzechukwu.
Walker is kind of a pressure fighter / grappler. I actually think he has a pretty good double leg for a heavyweight. He is somewhat explosive with his level change and he is capable of landing takedowns and holding top position. His cardio looks okay but not great. I do think he can land takedowns at this level though, especially early in fights. He also just pressures decently to put his opponents close to the cage to make it easier for him to land takedowns. He is landing 5.43 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good.
I still don’t think Walker is that great of a submission grappler though. He only has five submission wins on his resume, and I really think his last few heel hook wins were more of a product of Mayes, Tafa, and Kennedy being terrible more than anything. I haven’t seen Walker tested too much as a grappler defensively.
On the feet, Walker can pressure and land some shots in close quarters. He has some decent power in close range. He isn’t a skilled striker though, and I think he is a borderline liability on the feet in extended fights. He lost his UFC debut in a close decision loss to Lukasz Brzeski by losing the striking exchanges. He got outlanded 55-23 at range by Brzeski, and I just thought his striking looked pretty bad.
Overall, Walker just looks like a guy who can probably bully grapple below-average heavyweights in the UFC. He will also just probably be dangerous early in fights in general. I question his ability to strike in extended exchanges though and he doesn’t look like the most technical fighter in the world. I do think his wrestling can win him some fights though. How often his heel hook lands will honestly be a difficult thing to project. It is not a win condition I can dismiss. However, I don’t think it is a win condition people should rely on consistently happening either.
Walker will be taking on UFC newcomer Louie Sutherland. Sutherland is an English fighter who is 10-3 professionally. This guy has basically fought bums in random poor regional promotions.
I am quite confident that Sutherland isn’t very good. He is kind of a generalist who isn’t good at anything.
On the feet, Sutherland is kind of blitz reliant and will just storm in and land some punches occasionally. He can also land some leg kicks. I suppose he can land random knockouts in the UFC because this is heavyweight. He isn’t horrible on the feet. However, he isn’t very good either. He has also fought terrible competition and he may look vulnerable defensively at the UFC level. He has never been knocked out but I mean going to the UFC is a big step up.
Sutherland will also mix in some takedowns too. Again, he isn’t a good wrestler, but he can clinch up and land the random double legs against poor heavyweight grapplers. He sort of knows basic BJJ on top as well. Again, I only think he can really take advantage of really bad fighters on the mat.
Sutherland also lost in a Bellator fight against Slim Trabelsi in a sloppy contest. He was taken down a bit and controlled and just didn’t look very good. His TDD looked poor but I do think he at least fought hard to get up and he didn’t gas out either.
I just don’t think Sutherland is very good personally. He can probably win a fight or two in the UFC because heavyweight is terrible but that is about it.
As far as this matchup goes, obviously Walker may just heel hook Sutherland. It used to be a path to victory that I dismissed as possible but low percentage. Now I see it as an extremely possible outcome because Walker psychotically attempts them. So honestly if Sutherland has no heel hook defense, he is probably going to get submitted. It is a super hard path to victory to put a percentage on because if you have good leg lock defense, you can completely shut someone down (e.g., Hooker vs Puelles). If you don’t know how to defend heel hooks, it can be a super high percentage outcome that you get submitted.
I do think if the heel hook doesn’t land for Walker, he also just has a conventional wrestling path to victory. I didn’t love Sutherland’s takedown defense in Bellator. So there is a good chance Walker just lands takedowns and obtains control or just gets a normal more conventional submission.
I do think Sutherland has okay get ups though and he is somewhat well-rounded. I also don’t think Walker is very good. So there is a chance Sutherland just defends some takedowns or works up and starts to resist. I honestly think Sutherland has better cardio and I may even favor Sutherland as a striker so there are ways for this fight to go wrong for Walker.
Overall though, Sutherland isn’t a talented fighter and has beaten no one of note. So my guess is Walker gets his grappling going in some form and gets the win.
—
On DraftKings, I’m honestly tired of Walker but I suppose he’s in position to be another solid fantasy option this week.
In some regard he can be viewed as extremely boom or bust, dependent on some dumb early heel hook. I do also think he has a general grappling path to victory, and possibly that can score well too.
Ultimately Walker is lined -155 to win ITD, and at 9.1k, he presents a real upside case. He’s scored 122, 112 and 98 points in his three early finishes. If he gets another early finish, he’ll probably score 100 or more.
I don’t think Sutherland is particularly good, so I’m willing to play Walker at this price. Prioritizing someone else is totally viable, but you can save a bit of money with Walker from the top end and he still has one of the better finishing metrics on the slate.
Sutherland is priced at 7.1k and has some viability as a fade on Walker.
I’m not super high on Walker as a prospect and I think he can and will lose again. I just don’t know what Sutherland really offers here. He’s big and slow, and doesn’t produce a whole lot of offense.
I suppose Walker could completely collapse, or gas out, or get hit with one big shot. Sutherland has a win case in those circumstances, but he’s only +425 to win ITD.
I only view Sutherland as a low-end target and he’s not someone I’m super high on. However there’s still variance in a low-level HW fight so playing into that a bit with a larger portfolio is fine.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Walker by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Delgado
Fight Odds: Delgado -148, Wood +127
Odds to end ITD: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Delgado 8.5k, Wood 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jose Delgado’s a younger prospect at 145 out of the Southwest who earned a contract on the Contender Series this past August. He’ll be entering his third UFC appearance after back-to-back knockouts to start his promotional career – he’s 10-1 as a pro. Nathaniel Wood’s entering his 8th year on the active roster and his 7th consecutive fight at 145 lbs after moving up back in 2022 – he’s 9-3 in the UFC and 21-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Delgado’s a bigger guy for the division with a great frame standing 5’11” with a 74” reach.
I’m unsure of his official striking background but he fights in a pressure-kick/thai boxing based style. He flows pretty well on the feet as a switch stance fighter with sound body/head kicks, long combinations and will mix it up on the inside with knees and elbows.
He actually reminds me a bit of one of his teammates at the MMA Lab in Mario Bautista – but in a more youthful, rawer sense.
His work rate has always been consistent and has proven dangerous in all four limbs with 6 of his 10 wins coming via KO/TKO. However, he’s not a great defensive striker.
Despite some of his footwork and offline attacks, he has been susceptible to inside counters as he can get caught taking pictures at times. He’s been hurt in a few fights as well but has shown good recoverability and has never been KO’d as an amateur or pro.
Overall, I like Delgado as a striker, especially factoring in that he’s still only 27 years old and is at a good camp with many UFC bodies to work with in or around his weight class – he’ll need to tighten some things up defensively going forward though.
Wood’s a pretty potent offensive striker as he’ll play in the mid-range and pressure throughout his fights.
He’s a good leg kicker, utilizes a sound jab, straight right and left hook – he can also fight out of both stances but will primarily fight orthodox. Wood’s shown to be high output as well, landing 5.7 SLpM at 51% and 7.4 DLpM at 49%.
He was a perennial power threat back in his Cage Warriors days but his power hasn’t translated as well to the UFC at least in terms of finishing fights. However, he has knockdowns in three of his last four wins and was also able to hurt Rosa, Jourdain and Naimov. But for as potent as Wood is offensively, he’s had some struggles defensively.
He’ll keep a higher guard but guys have been able to either split or work around it and has had struggles with leg kicks himself. He eats 3.9 SApM at 56% and 4.9 DApM at 60% which are numbers right around the divisional average.
He struggled with the quicker counter game and flurries of Dodson, and then largely just lost in the firefight with Casey Kenney eating the bigger shots, despite keeping up on volume. He was also hurt in both the Fili and Naimov fights.
With all of that being said though, he still reps a positive distance differential of +2.5/minute which is solid as his offensive prowess has been able to outweigh his defense in the aggregate.
How it plays out: Off the top, Delgado will realize a decided size advantage of both 5” in height and reach. The striking is a bit difficult to call because while I think Delgado has some of the base tools to give bigger issues to Wood if not beat him outright on the feet, he’s still not really proven in more extended exchanges against better strikers whereas Wood is. However, while Wood has shown the ability to hurt guys, he’s struggled closing the show whereas Delgado’s putting some guys out pretty bad, coupled with Wood getting hurt in numerous fights – so Delgado profiles to have more damage upside but I’m still a bit skeptical on how he fairs over 15 minutes in a high-volume fight with a guy as technical as Wood.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m also unsure of Delgado’s floor background but we’ve seen some good and some bad.
In addition to Delgado’s pressure striking style, he’s shown to be a capable offensive wrestler in the open mat with singles and doubles. When on the ground, he’s shown respectable control, good GNP and a choke game with 3 RNCs and 1 d’arce choke.
His defensive wrestling/get up game has by and large looked decent outside of his lone pro loss to Mecate where he was taken down numerous times and ultimately grinded out. He got caught in a few submission attempts as well but was able to grit them out.
It was really the attritional attacks of Mecate that gave Delgado the biggest issue – that fight was 2+ years ago though and Delgado’s 4th pro fight which needs to be noted.
Overall, given what we have, I’d assume the floor is where Delgado will probably struggle the most at the UFC level, but our sample is smaller and I do feel he’s capable offensively.
Wood’s shown to be a capable ground fighter over the years, repping a BJJ black belt but his UFC success has been a bit all over the board.
He’s shown good entries to TDs and does his best work primarily from the body lock in hitting trips and body folds. But he hasn’t been exactly a volume wrestler, only landing 1.4 TDs per 15 minutes at 48%.
He’s also had struggles with his ground control a bit in the UFC but does have quick transitions to take backs – he also utilizes the front headlock series well with his longer arms.
Defensively, he stuffs at a respectable rate of 72% but his get up game has been spotty.
Kenney nabbed a couple TDs later in the fight when Wood got a bit tired but still only got 1:30 of control. Rosa went 2/9 and only established a little over a minute of control, but threatened Wood with front chokes.
He won the wrestling against Jourdain but has conceded individual rounds on the bottom in his three recent fights to Fili, Naimov and Pineda – Pineda also took the 3rd from him which wasn’t the greatest of looks given Pineda cardio historics and with how much damage Wood did early in the fight.
Even after dropping Charriere early last time out, Charriere was still able to get on top of Wood for a few minutes in round one. He has been submitted a couple times but we’re going back to 2015 and has shown pretty sound defensive capabilities in current form.
Overall, Wood’s only winning 54% of control time positions in the UFC so the floor’s been up and down with him.
How it plays out: The ground also seems somewhat variable as both are capable offensive wrestlers with submission games, and also have decent first layer TDD but can also be controlled for stretches on the ground. Given size parity, Wood may be the more pursuant wrestling party but I also think that Delgado’s going to be more physical in the tie ups as the more natural 145er where in theory, either guy can do some decent work should they get on top.
Tricky fight to call as I’m pretty bullish on Delgado as a prospect and was right from the jump so his early UFC success isn’t surprising – him knocking out Hyder Amil who’s been a historically durable fighter was crazy impressive last time out. On the flip side, Wood’s another step up in competition for him as 12-fight UFC vet who’s fought some good guys in there and has gotten his hand raised far more often than not – although he’s been in many greasy 29-28 types of fights before. I slightly lean Delgado in terms of him passing this test but it’s not a strong opinion.
—
On DraftKings, I’m not totally sure what to make of Delgado.
I generally view this as a competitive, fun scrap, that might take place at a higher pace, but also may not be one to see the optimal lineup. Either man landing 90 significant strikes and a takedown or two seems reasonable, but that’s barely pushing 80 DK points.
In his two UFC fights, Delgado has won by quick knockout and scored 129 and 109, which I assume will draw attention. This is a huge step up in competition against Wood, though Wood can be hurt.
If Delgado can’t win by knockout, it seems unlikely he’ll be optimal at 8.5k on a big slate. He’s actually +110 to win ITD which is really strong for the matchup.
My gut lean would be against playing a lot of Delgado, especially if he projects to be popular which I am unsure will be the case. I do think he can win this fight, and I do think he can finish Wood, but I’m more skeptical that it’s the most likely outcome, which is what the odds are suggesting.
Using him as a secondary target makes sense, but Wood’s been knocked out once in 12 UFC fights, so I’m not inclined to bet on Delgado heavily.
Wood is priced at 7.7k and may honestly be the preferred target.
I was on him as an underdog in a similar spot last time out, and he came through. I don’t feel as good about this matchup but the bottom line is Wood is a super experienced and well-rounded fighter. He is the best fighter Delgado has ever competed against, for sure.
If Wood is conscious, he’ll throw at a moderate rate, and he might wrestle some too. Rounds would project to be competitive and Wood could swing them.
I don’t think Wood has a ton of finishing equity at +450 ITD but he can produce damage and he can grapple. He’s a reasonable bet to score in the high 70s or low 80s in a win.
I’m not extremely high on Wood here, and I’m not sure that even if he wins, he’ll be a clear stand out at 7.7k. But I do think he has win equity and a safer floor on paper than some others. He seems like a fine salary saver and secondary target this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Delgado by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett
Fight Odds: Abdelwahab -440, Barnett +347
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Abdelwahab 9.3k, Barnett 6.9k
Weight Class: HW
The UFC is disgracing us with another Chris Barnett fight, this time against Hamdy Abdelwahab.
I only consider Barnett to be an out of shape meme, and a fighter who is likely dependent on early damage to win.
Most will remember Barnett from his highlight reel KO against Gian Villante in 2021, but outside of the one maneuver, Barnett has never impressed me much.
He was outstruck and outgrappled by Ben Rothwell, and eventually gassed out and tapped to a guillotine choke. He was also controlled in the clinch and beaten up by Martin Buday.
Even on the regional scene, he showed to be a very poor wrestler and grappler, and by default is a lower output striker, semi-dependent on landing damaging shots.
In his most recent win, which came in 2022, Barnett was dominated in the first round by Jake Collier who’s another out of shape HW, and Collier very nearly secured the finish. Collier gassed out after the first round though, and Barnett found a way to get on top of him and pound him out in round two.
It was cool to see the comeback, but again I’m just not impressed.
Most recently, Barnett fought Kennedy Nzechukwu and was TKOd early. He was completely outsized and also hurt his knee, but that’s again because he’s not in shape and because of some random, bad luck.
Barnett is now landing 4.21 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 6.53 per minute with a 39 percent defensive rate. He can’t really defend takedowns at 33 percent, and he’s never landed a takedown of his own.
His cardio is a major question mark, as is his durability. He’s got some power for HW but that’s about it.
Next he will face Hamdy Abdelwahab, who is coming off a recent decision loss to Mohammed Usman, the first of his pro career.
I still have good memories from Abdelwahab, as he successfully cashed for me as an underdog in his UFC debut against Don’Tale Mayes. That was in July of 2022, and after the win, we didn’t see him compete for another three years.
Why you ask? Well he might or might not have been handed down multiple USADA suspensions for taking anabolic steroids and additional testosterone. Whoops.
What further complicates things is that prior to that debut, Abdelwahab was getting a ton of hate to the point that he was an underdog to Mayes. His regional competition was weak and he didn’t prove much there, though he had quick KOs over all of his opponents.
However, Abdelwahab made the Olympics in 2016 for Greco-Roman, representing Egypt. He may not be an NCAA champion and this is HW which means the skill level is diminished anyway, but Abdelwahab is decent, somewhat powerful, and has more variety in his wrestling than purely upper body takedowns.
In that debut, he landed three takedowns on four attempts and had Mayes hurt early in the fight. I don’t think his submission game is exceptional but he’s capable of riding top position and landing ground-and-pound.
Abdelwahab also has some power in his hands. He’s not a great boxer and won’t land lots of strikes per minute, but he’s semi-dangerous and it’s not a terrible addition to his primary wrestling skill.
In his return fight against Pogues, Abdelwahab won a greasy split decision, this time only landing one takedown on one attempt, and boxing competitively at a low volume for the majority of time.
Against Usman, Abdelwahab didn’t land any takedowns, going 0/1, though he defended 4/4 from Usman. He won the first round with some boxing but slowed a little bit, and got outstruck in rounds two and three.
Overall, this paints the picture of a low-level fighter to me. Abdelwahab is capable of wrestling, but only against weak competition. He’s not even a guarantee to shoot.
On the feet, he can box a little bit, primarily early in the fight. He doesn’t throw a lot of volume and he will slow down.
I have to be honest, I don’t even feel that comfortable picking Abdelwahab over Barnett, despite my disgust of Barnett’s skills.
My best guess is that this time, Abdelwahab will wrestle, and he should be able to take Barnett down. He might just drown him early, landing ground-and-pound and chaining some takedowns together.
But I could see Barnett surviving. If he does, I’m still not sure he has the skills to win but Abdelwahab won’t present a massive threat in the latter rounds. Barnett could strike competitively with him, kicking him at distance and throwing some power shots.
Abdelwahab is actually five inches taller than Barnett but Barnett has a three inch reach advantage.
I don’t know. I have to project Abdelwahab for some wrestling success here, which is enough to favor him outright. Striking could definitely be more competitive but I might lean Abdelwahab there too.
Barnett is at least live to scrap his way to something dumb, even like a knockout, if he can survive some early wrestling exchanges. This is super low-level HW at the end of the day.
—
On DraftKings, Abdelwahab is priced at 9.3k and on paper he could be a good fantasy target.
I think he’s extremely boom or bust, but a first round TKO finish is very much on the table for Abdelwahab. He is -125 to win ITD, and multiple takedowns and ground-and-pound could come with it.
If this fight extends, I think it probably busts as Abdelwahab would likely stop wrestling. And a late TKO even at 9.3k probably isn’t enough in this stacked top range.
In my opinion, you’re really playing for that early wrestling/power onslaught, hoping Barnett folds, which is very possible.
Additionally, with big names like Aspinall in this range, Umar, Amorim, Aliskerov, and Almeida, I highly doubt the public looks to Abdelwahab. Even I’m scared to play him.
So, you are getting a high upside option, with decent finishing metrics, in a fantastic matchup, probably at low public ownership. It certainly puts Abdelwahab in consideration.
I think because of the strength of this range, you are likely spreading out your exposure. There’s no reason to get too aggressive here given the variance and bust risk. But there are reasons to like the upside for Abdelwahab and especially if he projects to be squeezed out, he could make for an intriguing semi-contrarian target.
Barnett at 6.9k is a viable HW punt.
That’s all he is, as he’s not specifically skilled at anything and doesn’t have many paths to victory other than random variance and damage.
But that does work in HW, and in his two wins, Barnett has scored 97 and 99 DK points. He is +350 to win ITD which is OK for this price tag.
With a large portfolio, I would include some shares of Barnett. He can’t be a real secondary target but as a punt, he carries a bit of finishing equity.
It would be tough for me to prioritize him at all with a smaller portfolio, but I’m not particularly high on this bottom tier, so if you need to punt, a sprinkle of Barnett is reasonable.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Abdelwahab by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo
Fight Odds: Maksum -434, Raposo +343
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Maksum 9.2k, Raposo 7k
Weight Class: 125
Azat Maksum will be looking to rebound from two straight losses against Mitch Raposo, who is also coming off a pair of losses.
Maksum was viewed as the better prospect of the two coming in, though he hasn’t been too impressive through the first three matchups of his promotional career.
Maksum won a split decision over Tyson Nam in his debut, landing a couple of takedowns despite getting outstruck 46-81. He then hurt Charles Johnson early, but slowed down and allowed Johnson to mount a comeback, even taking Maksum down and nearly submitting him late in the fight.
Most recently, despite the loss, Maksum arguably looked career best against Tagir Ulanbekov who is a legit talent. Maksum defended all eight takedowns and even landed a few of his own, though he got edged out in striking exchanges.
It’s been a tough look overall for Maksum because he’s not able to stand out in any area. He’s shown to be a low volume striker, only landing 3.24 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.0 per minute, though he’s technically capable with a bit of power.
Maksum comes from a grappling background and used a lot of wrestling in his regional run, but he’s only landing 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, and only has earned 3:47 of total control on his seven takedowns landed.
The real positive was on the defensive side against Ulanbekov, where I really thought Ulanbekov could establish control on the mat and potentially submit Maksum, and he could not.
Maksum is a relatively talented fighter but he’s simply not producing enough offense in any area to win rounds consistently.
This does feel like a step down against Mitch Raposo, who also comes from a wrestling background and is a BJJ black belt.
Raposo is somewhat small for this division, and although I think his wrestling is solid, he’s just not producing enough offense either.
He almost pulled off a split win over Sumudaerji last time out, landing six takedowns, but he earned less than two minutes of control in each round, and was also outstruck 45-9.
In his UFC debut, he also lost a split decision to Andre Lima who’s talented, only landing one takedown and getting outstruck 51-32.
Raposo is a capable boxer, but he’s only landing 1.62 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.20. He has a bit of power and is a tough guy, but that’s nowhere near enough volume to win rounds with consistency.
As a wrestler, Raposo can make a difference and can legitimately beat lower-level competition. But he hasn’t shown to be an elite submission grappler and so he needs a higher volume of takedowns to really make a statement.
In this matchup, Maksum is two inches taller and six inches longer, and seems a bit more well-rounded of the two.
On the feet, neither fighter throws with much volume but Maksum seems a bit more comfortable there, and is arguably more dangerous. Margins could very well be thin but I would favor Maksum mildly on the feet.
Raposo could be the better wrestler outright, but it’s hard to look past Maksum’s recent defensive display against Ulanbekov and be confident with what Raposo can do in that realm. Sure, he could land 2-3 takedowns on 10 attempts perhaps, but there’s no guarantee he attempts that much and even with a couple of takedowns, it seems likely Maksum can pop back up.
If Raposo can establish control, perhaps he can threaten to take the back or simply win two rounds with control. I don’t view that as a very likely outcome though.
Conversely, Maksum is still landing 2 takedowns per fight, and Raposo isn’t an established defensive wrestler. Again, I wouldn’t bet on Maksum dominating on the mat but it’s very possible these two can neutralize each other.
Overall, this has the makings of a competitive fight, given that neither fighter dominates any area and neither throws much volume. I do view Maksum as the better talent, more likely to fight in the area of his choosing, and he seems a little more dangerous.
—
On DraftKings, Maksum is priced up to 9k, and I expect him to be the lowest owned fighter priced at 8.6k and above.
Partially, this is a strong range with a lot of viable options. Partially, Maksum has lost twice in a row and in his lone win, he only scored 59 DK points.
Maksum is +155 to win ITD which isn’t a real stand out either, and my guess is he comes in very low owned. He will only rate out as a contrarian target and he’s not one I particularly love.
It’s not out of the question that Maksum could hurt Raposo, or find a finish along the way. But he will need that to have a shot at the optimal and I’m still not sure he stands out among the rest.
I’d rather lean into the more established finishers and grapplers in this range, who have a much more consistent floor/ceiling, than force in Maksum for ownership alone.
Raposo at 7.2k doesn’t interest me a whole lot either.
The reason to play him is that he could possibly land 3+ takedowns, and win a decision. Given his grappling style, he can score well for his price.
It’s also worth mentioning that in his two split decision losses, he would have only scored 48 and 72 DK points in wins. He’s just not producing a whole lot of offense, and this doesn’t seem like a matchup where that’s likely to change.
Raposo is only +600 to win ITD here, which isn’t strong. I wouldn’t rule him out but I don’t feel very passionate about investing in him this weekend. I would rather take chances on other cheaper dogs personally, and only consider Raposo a low-end salary saver.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Maksum by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizkui Inoue
Fight Odds: Amorim -437, Inoue +345
Odds to end ITD: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Amorim 9.5k, Inoue 6.7k
Weight Class: 115
After two years on the shelf, Mizuki Inoue will return to the Octagon to take on top grappling prospect Jaqueline Amorim.
Mizuki is 2-1 in the UFC thus far, and last picked up a win over Hannah Goldy in September 2023. She previously lost to Amanda Lemos, and won her UFC debut against Wu Yanan.
To this point, Mizuki has generally been a striker, though she hasn’t fared super well in any one area. She was outlanded 93-123 in total by Wu Yanan, though Mizuki won the head strike battle 86-65, Yanan also landed an additional 41 body strikes and 17 leg strikes.
Again versus Lemos, Mizuki was outlanded 57-83 in total, and 51-30 in head strikes, with Lemos dropping her in the first round as well. Most recently, Mizuki outlanded Goldy 55-47 and 31-10 to the head.
This is to say, while Mizuki is a fine kickboxer and has landed some damaging strikes, she is having a hard time pulling away in rounds and is absorbing 5.62 sig. strikes per minute while only landing 4.56 per minute herself, along with a 48 percent defensive rate which is poor.
Mizuki isn’t a strong grappler, but she’s had some success on the regionals, winning by submission nine times. Most came against low level competition though.
While she’s not a strong offensive or defensive wrestler, it’s worth noting that she’s never been finished either, which is a credit to her general durability.
Despite a short UFC career, Mizuki has fought good competition and has been a pro for a long time. She lost to Kowalkiewicz, Jandiroba and Grasso in Invicta, with the first two being split decisions.
In total, Mizuki is a well-rounded and experienced fighter, but she’s not a stand out in any one area. At this point in her career, I’d consider her best as someone who can edge out rounds with a moderate volume of head strikes.
She will have a tough test upcoming against Jaqueline Amorim, who’s picked up four consecutive finishes, including three by submission.
Amorim is a super legit submission grappler and that is her best skill set. She is a menace on the mat and if she can consistently earn top position, she is a real threat to finish the fight.
Amorim is 10-1 professionally and all 10 of her wins have come inside the distance, including eight by submission.
For now, the primary concern with Amorim is cardio, which has already reared its ugly head on more than one occasion. In her UFC debut, despite nearly finishing Sam Hughes early, Amorim was completely gassed by the second round and was taken down and beaten up by Hughes to lose her undefeated record.
She has faced little adversity in her more recent bouts, but I still have my hesitations.
Especially in this kind of matchup, where Mizuki is super experienced and capable of fighting three rounds, if Amorim gets tired and is unable to take her down… she could lose.
That’s essentially the dynamic we are working with here. Amorim is a high-level grappler and good wrestler, averaging 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. She’ll be a real threat to get on top of Mizuki early. If Mizuki can survive, she may be able to outstrike Amorim over the duration.
I do want to note that currently, Mizuki holds an 85 percent takedown defense rate which obviously looks great. It’s mostly come from defending 13/14 takedowns against Goldy who isn’t particularly strong. Lemos did take her down twice on two attempts.
I have mixed feelings here. I think it’s fair to favor Amorim because she is outright better than Mizuki on the mat. While Mizuki is fine defensively, Amorim should probably land early takedowns and threaten her, per usual.
I am not convinced she finishes the fight though. Mizuki has never been finished and even survived Jandiroba on the mat. I wouldn’t be shocked if Mizuki hung on tough, and then this became a battle in the latter rounds where an upset would be live. I’ll still lean toward the grappler in Amorim to do enough work on the mat to get her hand raised.
—
On DraftKings, Amorim is one of the most expensive fighters on the board at 9.5k, and I honestly lean against playing a lot of her.
While she is a legit grappler and capable of winning early with an ITD line of -150, the fight is still only -130 to go Under 2.5 rounds, and I would not want a lot of action here in an extended fight.
To be fair, Amorim’s one ceiling performance came in an extended fight, where she got a ton of top control and ground-and-pound, which allowed her to put up 120 in a late finish. That was against an awful opponent.
Otherwise, her early wins have scored 99, 103 and 91 which just won’t be enough on this slate, at this price tag. Others may see the same concerns as me and it’s possible Amorim won’t be chalk, but I’m just really worried about pure ceiling here compared to some other fighters.
Granted, we haven’t always seen pure ceiling performances from guys like Umar or Aspinall, but ultimately Amorim hasn’t proven she can reach 105+ even with early finishes, and that’s a scary thing to invest in at this price tag.
So as much as I do like Amorim’s skills, and think she can grapple her way to another strong score, I would lean toward being under the field here at 9.5k, especially against an opponent who is historically tough to finish.
Mizuki is priced down to 6.7k and she has some viability as a punt.
Her floor will be non-existent, but you’d be playing into the idea that she can take over in rounds two and three like Hughes, land some strikes and maybe a takedown or two. Hughes scored in the low 80s in that win, and I think that kind of score is in play for Mizuki.
As a big dog, Mizuki will not rate out well, especially from a finishing sense at +700 ITD. I don’t think she’s a phenomenal target. But I do at least see a path to victory with her edging out some striking rounds, if Amorim starts to slow down, and she could be mixed in for a small percentage if you wish.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amorim by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)