UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown (11/8/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
Fight Odds: Bonfim -178, Brown +151
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Bonfim 8.6k, Brown 7.6k
Weight Class: 170
It’s only taken a half dozen fights for Gabriel Bonfim to be elevated to a main event slotting, and he’ll take on a veteran in Randy Brown this weekend.
I really didn’t think we’d get to this point with Bonfim, who was exposed pretty badly by Nicolas Dalby in 2023. As a proven early finisher with an undefeated record, Bonfim badly gassed out and was TKOd by Dalby after Dalby survived an early storm.
However, Bonfim has clearly made strides since and is coming off three consecutive wins with two of those ending by decision.
Specifically against Ange Loosa in 2024, Bonfim fought at a pretty high pace and landed 101 significant strikes over three rounds. He was taken down four times in the process but it was great to see him fight for an extended period.
Similarly in his most recent win, Bonfim was tasked with a world-class striker in Stephen Thompson, and had to wrestle for three rounds to secure the win.
In general, I would consider Bonfim an explosive boxer with an opportunistic submission game. He actually has 13 wins by submission and only three by knockout, though I don’t always love his submission process.
In his tracked fights, Bonfim has multiple wins by guillotine, a win by von flue, and a d’arce choke. Clearly he is dangerous on the mat but I do prefer the classic takedown, back take and RNC style.
I still worry about him facing adversity, taking damage and getting tired. He hasn’t exactly looked fresh in the latter rounds of his recent decisions, and I don’t think an extended fight necessarily favors him.
However, Bonfim is currently landing 4.54 sig. strikes per minute and absorbing 3.53 per minute with a 63 percent defensive rate. He’s landing 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes as well. He’s shown fight winning ability in both areas and specifically excels in creating opportunistic situations where he can lock up the finish.
Randy Brown is classified as a veteran at this point of his career, and will also be getting his first main event opportunity.
He’s been in the UFC for nearly a decade and has pulled off a 14-6 record in the promotion which is really respectable.
Brown is very well-rounded, but he’s not phenomenal at anything. He lands 4.47 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.26 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate.
He is quite tall and long for this division and that’s one aspect of his game that can cause opponents trouble. In this matchup specifically, Brown is two inches taller with a six-inch reach advantage.
So generally at distance, Brown can keep up a decent workrate and compete with most. He has some power components to his game, but isn’t a crazy knockout threat. Only four of his 14 UFC wins have come by knockout.
Conversely, Brown has only been knocked out once, but he’s been dropped by four different opponents and can take damage as well.
On the mat, Brown is an acceptable wrestler but it’s not a strong suit. He lands only 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 73 percent.
Brown hasn’t really fought many strong wrestlers, but most can take him down if they want. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is the most alarming recent performance, as Zaleski only lands takedowns with a 20 percent accuracy historically. He was able to take Brown down four times on seven attempts, take his back and threaten for a finish. Brown came back to win though.
Brown has a couple of submission wins on his record but he’s also been finished with a RNC multiple times.
Overall, I’d say that Brown is a good fighter and he’s almost like a gatekeeper of sorts where you have to be pretty decent to beat him. Brown also doesn’t separate in any area of the game which is why a lot of his fights are ultimately competitive.
In this particular matchup, I definitely think both fighters can win.
Brown is going to have a slight edge at distance given his huge length advantage, and I expect him to strike at a reasonable pace. He could compete in rounds and potentially hurt Bonfim along the way.
I do think Bonfim is the sharper boxer though, with more power and more ability to punish Brown. While both sides can inflict damage, I think Bonfim is more likely of the two to land an early knockdown.
I also think Bonfim is the better wrestler and submission grappler of the two. Given his recent wrestling success, I expect he’ll look to wrestle again here and I expect he can land takedowns.
Brown won’t be easy to finish, but it’s quite possible Bonfim can land 3-5 takedowns, earn top position and threaten for a RNC finish. He can also transition to something unique like a d’arce choke and finish there too.
I would be pretty surprised if Bonfim didn’t have some level of success early in this fight. He just has a lot of weapons, and particularly on the ground he’s very dangerous. I doubt Brown can keep him away, despite the reach.
However, I also still have major concerns about Bonfim in an extended fight. Granted, he’s survived three rounds but now we’re putting him into a five-round fight. I don’t think we can have high expectations for Bonfim if this hits the championship rounds, which is still a real possibility.
It’s not as if Brown is a world beater late in fights either, and I don’t think he suddenly becomes an elite wrestler and striker at that point. But it may come down to cardio, and if Bonfim can’t really defend himself, Brown could easily take over and get a finish.
It’s impossible to say at what point in the fight the momentum will shift, but if I’m backing Bonfim, I want him to finish this fight early. I still think a decision win is possible but I’d be sweating bullets past the third round.
I think the odds are pretty fair currently and I lean toward Bonfim as the superior finisher of the two, but I definitely consider Brown a live underdog and particularly in an extended fight.
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On DraftKings, both sides of the matchup are plenty viable and I expect the winner will contend for the optimal.
Bonfim is the preferred target on paper at 8.6k, and he’s scored 83.9, 107.1, 76.7, 97 and 118.7 in his UFC wins, with the two lower scoring ones coming in decisions.
Although I’d hate an extended fight for Bonfim, over five rounds, he’s very likely wrestling enough and producing enough offense to pass 90-100 points, and contending for the optimal at 8.6k regardless. He carries a very strong floor/ceiling because of this.
Additionally, he’s still -135 to win ITD which is one of the best ITD lines on this slate. For the price tag, Bonfim feels like a very strong target and likely a priority by most. I’d expect him to be very chalky this weekend.
Brown is priced at 7.6k and feels like a clear secondary target.
It will be difficult for me to prioritize him outright but I don’t think we should be ignoring him either, just given Bonfim’s profile. Brown can strike at a moderate pace and he has some grappling equity. I’d guess a win comes ITD as well, though he’s only +275 to win ITD.
It’s not my favorite matchup for Brown and I have some concerns about him scoring minimally early in the fight, but if he can simply survive, he has a clear path to winning. He should provide strong leverage against Bonfim as well as the salary discount.
Overall this is a solid main event to target, and I like the winner’s chances of exceeding value at their respective price tag. I’ll have a mild or more lean toward Bonfim for his early finishing quality but I expect the public to be following that same path.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bonfim by D’arce, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales
Fight Odds: Morales -279, Schnell +230
Odds to end ITD: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Morales 9.3k, Schnell 6.9k
Weight Class: 125
This is pretty shameful matchmaking by the UFC to bring Matt Schnell into a co-main event against their last TUF winner Joseph Morales.
I don’t think Schnell belongs in the UFC and I think he needs to retire. He is coming off a competitive win against Jimmy Flick, but Flick has already retired once and Schnell has just taken too much damage for me to enjoy watching him compete any more.
Schnell entered the UFC in 2016 after competing on TUF himself, and he’s earned a 7-8 record over the past nine years which is respectable.
Schnell just isn’t particularly good at anything, and he has one of the worst chins in the sport.
At his best, Schnell is an adequate boxer, capable of competing in rounds. And he’s a decent submission grappler, especially from his back where he can lock up triangles.
However, his boxing isn’t enough to pull away in fights, and it usually gets him hurt. He only lands 4.13 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 4.17 per minute. He’s been brutally knocked out five times that I remember, and he only has one knockdown to his name in a fight he still got finished in.
Schnell is probably best on the mat, but he doesn’t wrestle well. He lands 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends them at 43 percent, which is awful on both sides.
He’s coming off a win in which he was taken down five times by Flick, and was quite frankly lucky to get the nod.
Now he’ll take on Joseph Morales who just put up the best fight of his pro career against Alibi Idiris in the TUF Finale in August, submitting Idiris in the second round.
To be fair, I was extremely low on Morales entering that bout and still don’t feel fully comfortable with him.
This is the same Joseph Morales who debuted in the UFC back in 2017 as a 22-year-old. He’s now 13-2 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned two wins by knockout and seven by submission. He trains out of Team Alpha Male.
Morales came into the UFC as a submission grappler, with a very limited arsenal. He won by club-and-sub in his UFC debut, but was then pounded out by Deiveson Figueiredo in his following matchup. No shame.
In his third bout in 2018, Morales gave up seven takedowns to Eric Shelton and lost a split decision where he attempted a bunch of submissions in the process. He then didn’t fight until 2021, where he debuted in Cage Warriors and picked up a couple of wins.
On TUF, Morales won a super close first matchup against Rodriguez. Morales took him down and got easy back control to comfortably win the first round. The pair largely struck in round two, which Morales ultimately edged, but not clearly enough to take the decision.
In the final round, it was actually Rodriguez who landed a takedown and took the back of Morales, which was a pretty bad sign considering Morales’ strength as a grappler.
In his semifinal fight against Henrique, Morales won with a quick RNC. The pair boxed for a couple of minutes before Morales shot a takedown. He secured it, took the back, and immediately locked up the RNC.
To me, clearly, this is how Morales will need to win fights at the UFC level.
As a striker, I don’t see much hope for Morales. He is actually a competent boxer, but that competency is only going to allow him to hang around until he can dominate the grappling exchanges.
He isn’t particularly high volume. He’s not super powerful. He doesn’t throw a ton of kicks. I don’t think he can win rounds at a high rate on the feet.
I actually think Morales has leveled up his wrestling since his first UFC stint. His offensive wrestling is adequate, and he can shoot a fine double leg. He can land the occasional takedown.
If he doesn’t take the back though, I don’t see a ton of upside in his game. All of Morales’ subs are either RNCs or triangles. He’s not a major control fighter otherwise.
The other issue is his defensive wrestling isn’t good enough. In his first stint, he had zero defensive wrestling. Now, I’d say he’s a bit better, but he still gave up a takedown and a back take to a boxer in his first bout.
If Morales can continue to level up his takedown defense, he’ll have a better shot. But my guess is that it will not hold up, and I don’t think he’s dangerous enough from his back to win via sub consistently.
With that said, he’s a long fighter and is somewhat crafty. He’ll throw the occasional guillotine or triangle in transition, or from his back. Opponents will have to mind their Ps and Qs.
I just think Morales lacks real round winning equity outside of top control, and without that leading directly to subs, I don’t think he can sustain wins in the UFC this time around.
In this most recent TUF Finale, Morales just pressured Idiris from the start and broke him. He was still outlanded at distance 22 to 18 but the pressure allowed Morales to get in close and grapple, where he was able to land a takedown and take the back.
He’s clearly a very dangerous guy from the back and will have finishing ability from that position moving forward. He still did fall off the top and actually subbed Idiris with a triangle from his back, which I have mixed feelings about.
I’m really not in love with Morales from a control aspect or round winning point of view, but he’s clearly very dangerous on the mat and I did like his ability to pressure and get the fight in positions where he was able to excel.
Against Schnell, I have to believe Morales will have the upper hand.
On paper, I suppose Schnell could be a better distance boxer. He’d be more comfortable at distance and would throw more volume in theory. He could have a path to victory there.
But Morales could also land a shot and knock him out cold, just given how awful Schnell is at taking damage. The more likely situation is that Morales pressures again and forces grappling exchanges.
While Schnell is good on the mat, his wrestling is just not great and I think Morales will have opportunities to take him down and take his back. Schnell has also been submitted with a guillotine choke in two of his last four losses.
Make no mistake, the UFC is lining this fight up to build Morales, and I think they will probably be rewarded for it. I still have some long term concerns with Morales and his profile won’t ever make me fully confident, but I’ll pick Morales to force grappling exchanges and find an early finish.
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On DraftKings, Morales is priced up to 9.3k and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was chalky coming off that debut win.
Against Idiris, Morales put up 101.1 DK points in a second round finish, which is pretty strong. He also scored 107 in a first round win in his UFC debut back in 2017.
Morales will rate out well on paper this weekend as he’s a sizable favorite, with grappling equity, in a fight expected to finish. Morales carries a -105 ITD line which I’m actually surprised it’s not a bit better.
My concern with Morales is that he’s still not a great round winner himself. He won’t project for a lot of strikes. Takedowns could come but they aren’t guaranteed. He could spend time on his back. Schnell is at least experienced and comfortable on the mat.
So it wouldn’t be shocking if we saw an extended fight here, or even if Schnell had some success. We haven’t seen a crazy high ceiling for Morales, and I don’t consider him a must target on DK.
However, this feels like a very soft matchup and I do think Morales has early finishing equity. Takedowns and a sub is very much in play. The top range this week isn’t a lock for big scores, and there are plenty of boom/bust targets elsewhere.
Morales is certainly in play, all things considered, and could be viewed as one of the better options in this top range. I’m not completely sold on his ceiling, and he’s arguably a bit boom/bust from a grappling standpoint, but he has a fair shot to win early and score near 100 points.
At 9.3k, I’ll probably play Morales moderately and I expect I’ll be aligned with the field who will want exposure as well.
Schnell at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
His path to victory is probably to edge out a couple of close rounds, and he’s coming off a 66 point win against Flick.
He’ll likely carry leverage against Morales, but I don’t know that he has tremendous upside in this matchup. He could land takedowns, in theory, but he doesn’t wrestle much and he would probably put himself in danger anyway. He is only +375 to win ITD.
I don’t mind betting against Morales in the longer view but I’m really not sold this is the right matchup for it. I only consider Schnell a low-end target and wouldn’t prioritize him with a limited portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Morales by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic
Fight Odds: Medic -161, Salikhov +137
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Medic 8.8k, Salikhov 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two middle class UFC veteran strikers here as Muslim Salikhov will take on Uros Medic.
Salikhov is an okay fighter and thrives as a kickboxer. I am a little concerned about his age as he is now 41 years old and he was recently knocked out by Li Jingliang and Randy Brown. I just never like older fighters getting knocked out as it probably has a compounding impact on their durability going forward. So that is a concern I have for Salikhov.
However, Salikhov has bounced back with three straight wins, one being a decision win against Santiago Ponzinibbio and two first round knockouts against Song Kenan and Carlos Leal. So Salikhov is still capable and I will always respect his KO power.
Salikhov is skilled and explosive as a striker. He lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.92 in return. He defends strikes at a very good 62 percent. He is a technical and fast twitched striker. He uses spinning techniques which I am generally not a fan of. However, he seems reasonably selective with them which is fine.
I think Salikhov is powerful and capable of hurting opponents. He is definitely dangerous. I also think he is hard to hit and manages distance well. However, I really do worry about his volume. 3.39 significant strikes per minute is not a lot. I have seen worse volume but that isn’t great. Put it this way, if he doesn’t hurt his opponents, he is going to be in close fights.
Salikhov isn’t that great of a wrestler. He lands 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes which is fine. However, I don’t expect him to really outwrestle any decent grapplers. He defends takedowns at a good 72 percent and has good first layer takedown defense. However, I do worry about his grappling game if he actually gets grounded. Alex Garcia dominated him on the mat in Salikhov’s debut so it will always be in the back of my mind. Ponzinibbio also had ground success against Salikhov.
Salikhov will be taking on UFC veteran Uros Medic. I originally didn’t think Medic was very good. He is a lengthy 6’1” striker with some power, and he generally just finished everyone in the first round early in his career. He then was dominated on the mat and then knocked out by Jalin Turner. I kind of just assumed Medic was an early KO or bust type of fighter after seeing that.
However, I actually think Medic showed me that he isn’t a complete KO1 or bust fighter against Omar Morales and Matthew Semelsberger. He beat the crap out of Morales for 8 minutes and he at least showed he can carry power for more than 4 minutes. Then in his win vs Semelsberger, he was hurt early. He then regrouped and got the better of the exchanges for the next ten minutes. He then knocked Semelsberger out in round 3.
It was good to see him be able to fight hard for nearly 15 minutes. He also obviously showed he still has that KO1 power with recent wins against Tim Means and Gilbert Urbina.
Medic is landing 5.47 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.50 in return which is good thus far.
I still have some concerns with Medic. He can be hurt. He was also knocked dead by Punahele Soriano. I don’t think his durability is great.
Medic is also not a great defensive wrestler. He got dominated on the mat in his matchup against Myktybek Orolbai and surely good wrestlers can dominate him on the ground.
However, Medic is at least a dangerous and long striker who has power. He also showed he can fight later in a fight and maintain his danger for three rounds. He obviously has some flaws but I respect some of his win conditions as realistic at this level.
As far as this matchup goes, I think there is a ton of variance baked in this matchup and these guys will probably strike as neither wrestle often.
I sort of lean the youth and length of Medic a bit here. Medic hits hard and I am not too confident that Salikhov can take Medic’s shots for a full 15 minutes. So I have a feeling Salikhov will eventually just get knocked out in this matchup at some point or badly hurt.
The question is can Salikhov hurt Medic before Medic gets his shots off. Honestly, I think Salikhov can. Salikhov is dangerous and accurate and I really think Medic is chinny. So I totally think Salikhov is live here. Salikhov is also arguably the more technical striker and if this fight somehow goes 15 minutes, Salikhov can surely pull off a decision by damage or by keeping the numbers close.
I still do slightly lean Medic here based on size and age and my lack of faith in Salikhov’s durability though. So Medic is the pick but this is an extremely high variance fight between two extremely dangerous fighters who are also a bit fragile.
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On DraftKings, this is definitely a fight I’m interested in and one I expect to end inside the distance.
The fight as a whole is -600 to end inside the distance and I think a RD 1 KO on either side is probably among the most likely outcomes of the matchup. I lean toward Medic but wouldn’t be shocked if Salikhov pulled it off.
Medic is priced at 8.8k but his odds are dropping a bit, and he’s only -161 to win, meaning he’s a bit overpriced. Still, an early KO is very much on the table and Medic still holds a -125 ITD line which is very strong.
I’m willing to play Medic moderately on this slate. It’s a very high-variance matchup and he’s boom or bust, but all of his wins in the UFC are finishes and I think he carries a strong ceiling for the price tag. If the public is scared off him by the odds falling, I’d be happy to be overweight.
Salikhov is priced at 7.4k and is a slight value based on odds.
Given that he just won by KO in RD 1 twice in a row, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Salikhov as the underdog chalk this week. I think it’s fine for the price honestly, as a win for him is still probably an early KO.
I just have no real faith. He’s not a high volume guy, and he’s old. Medic is chinny as Tim said though and these guys will exchange. At least he carries finishing equity and he’s +170 to win ITD which is a great line for the price.
My primary hesitation would be the public ownership. He was literally +375 in his last matchup against Leal and so now because he won, he could be overvalued here and overowned. I’m not necessarily stoked to play him at mid-30s ownership.
However, this fight is one that projects to end early, and Medic has eaten a lot of shots and been knocked out himself. So I can’t rule it out. Consider your overall constructions when playing Salikhov as they may be popular but coming in near the field is still a very reasonable strategy here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Medic by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim
Fight Odds: Bonfim -190, Padilla +161
Odds to end ITD: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Bonfim 9.2k, Padilla 7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an action fight here in the lightweight division between Ismael Bonfim and Chris Padilla.
Bonfim is Brazilian and is 20-5 professionally. He won an impressive dominant decision on the Contender Series against a decent Russian opponent to earn his contract.
Bonfim comes from a boxing background. You can definitely see the boxing skills in his game. He has pretty good volume. He lands 5.73 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.10 in return, and defends strikes at 70 percent which is very strong.
Bonfim is really good defensively and doesn’t really get hit often. He also rolls with shots well. I like his counters a lot. He also will work the body and can fight with a good pace for 15 minutes. He can win fights on the feet in the UFC. His most recent win was a striking based decision against Vinc Pichel where he landed 111 significant strikes. He looked solid.
Bonfim did lose by a very random KO in between rounds in his last matchup against Nazim Sadykhov though. Bonfim was actually winning round 1 with zero issue and with about 10 seconds left, he was head kicked and couldn’t continue in between rounds. It wasn’t the best look but Bonfim generally never had durability issues before, so I will chalk it up to randomness for now.
I have seen Bonfim grapple a bit and he seems like a decent submission grappler and a competent grappler overall. He looks to have solid takedown defense too. I have seen him controlled here and there but not too often, and he overall just has good TDD. He also works hard to get back to his feet.
Bonfim was submitted in his loss against Benoit Saint-Denis. However, he defended 5/7 takedowns against Saint-Denis and I actually liked a lot of what he did defensively. BSD simply caught Bonfim with a really slick backtake, and I don’t give Bonfim too much crap for that performance.
Bonfim will be taking on Chris Padilla who is somehow now 3-0 in the UFC. Padilla is 16-6 professionally.
There wasn’t much tape on Padilla pre UFC. To me, Padilla looked like an early storm type of fighter who would come out aggressively and look to land strikes or grapple. He generally looked best as a grappler and has five submission wins on his record. He did get a back take and submission win against James Llontop in his UFC debut, and I do think he is decent with his backtakes.
He still isn’t the best wrestler though and he failed on all of his takedown attempts against Jai Herbert and Rongzhu. I basically think Padilla can outgrapple below-average grapplers.
As a striker, Padilla looks flawed defensively and I am a bit worried about his gas tank. Against Jason Gonzalez, he nearly knocked Gonzalez out but then he gassed badly and got the crap kicked out of him. He did at least stay tough vs Rongzhu and knocked him out which kind of surprised me. Against Herbert, it was a terrible low volume fight where Padilla won by split decision, outlanding Herbert 39-38 in significant strikes.
To me, I can’t totally trust Padilla on the feet at this point unless he is landing an early knockout. As a grappler, he actually looks okay but I am not sure he is that good, and I don’t think he will be able to dominate with it for a full 15 minutes fight.
I sort of am just not that high on Padilla. I feel like he could have easily lost a couple of his UFC fights and he was getting teed off on against Llontop until the back take.
So I really am going to have to go to Bonfim here. I just think Padilla will struggle easily outgrappling Bonfim and will be forced to strike. Bonfim looks like a considerably better round winning striker here. My guess is Bonfim can just kind of outclass Padilla to a clean decision or an eventual TKO.
I do think Padilla is tough though and he does have a bit of dual danger with the power in his hands and his backtakes. It wouldn’t completely shock me if he finished Bonfim. However, if the finish doesn’t happen, I struggle to see Padilla winning and I think Bonfim is just a bit better than him.
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On DraftKings, my guess is this fight goes a bit overlooked.
Bonfim is priced up to 9k and likely dependent on a finish. He can throw moderate volume but he’s not a particularly high-volume wrestler, and that puts him into the bucket of needing a knockout.
He’s only achieved that once in the UFC, in round two against McKinney, but he still only scored 100 points there. In his decision win, Bonfim put up 80 DK points.
In this particular matchup, I think Bonfim has some finishing equity but it’s tough to determine how much. He’s only +240 to win ITD. We could just see him play out as the better boxer, and ultimately do some damage though, so it’s not an impossible task.
It is difficult to prioritize though, and there are plenty of other finishing targets in the surrounding price ranges. I can’t really click on Bonfim often over others, and I expect the public will feel similarly.
So we might just see Bonfim rate out as a contrarian target this week. In that case, I don’t mind him as a differentiator, but I do still think the most likely outcome is an extended fight where Bonfim doesn’t reach the optimal.
Padilla is priced at 7.2k and rates out OK.
Particularly, Padilla carries a +240 ITD line as well, matching that of Bonfim’s. I am really hesitant to buy into him finishing Bonfim here though, and I don’t consider Padilla a very strong prospect.
Simply by default, Padilla is a fine low-end target. He is cheap, can grapple a bit, and we’ve seen Bonfim submitted before. I can’t rule out the possibility of another back take.
I don’t really want to bet on that outcome though and I wouldn’t want to play into Padilla if he was projecting as semi-chalk. I’d probably just aim to come in near the field and not take a major stand one way or the other.
Padilla is a fine mix-in at 7.2k for finishing equity but I’m not expecting a great performance here in what’s a tough-ish matchup on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bonfim by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos
Fight Odds: Simon -170, Barcelos +144
Odds to end ITD: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Simon 8.4k, Barcelos 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a UFC veteran fight here between Ricky Simon and Raoni Barcelos.
I have generally liked Simon as he is a high volume wrestler with pretty good cardio, but he has really underperformed in his last three losses against Song Yadong, Mario Bautista, and Vinicius Oliveira. Those fighters are all solid, but Simon does look a bit worn down and declined to me.
However Simon did bounce back with two wins against Javid Basharat and Cameron Smotherman so maybe it is a quality of competition thing, although I thought the Basharat win was a bit random. I will analyze Simon’s historical skillset but do know I think he has probably declined to a degree.
Simon lands a solid 5.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts nearly 11 takedowns a fight. That is an incredible takedown rate and Simon should crush most below average grapplers in this division fighting at that pace. Simon has legit takedowns with a great double leg.
Simon’s TDD is extremely good as he defends takedowns at 75 percent. Almost all of his takedowns conceded in the UFC were to Merab and there is no shame in that. Merab couldn’t even really control Simon on the mat though and only obtained 2:42 of control time on Simon. Simon is just a very good defensive grappler.
However, I have always worried about Simon’s top control against good wrestlers. I think he can control and overwhelm low tier to average grapplers. He has really dominated some bad grapplers on the mat which is fine. However, he has struggled to hold down some of the more competent grapplers that he has faced. For example, he took Rob Font down 6 times in 15 minutes and only obtained 3 minutes of control. He took down Ray Borg 7 times and only obtained 5 minutes of control. He also really struggled holding down Yadong, Bautista, and Oliveira. Those last three guys then basically dominated Simon on the feet.
The striking is really the problem with Simon. He has historically been an okay striker. However, he lands 2.93 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.72 in return and has looked worse and worse striking in recent fights. I don’t have a ton of faith in Simon on the feet. He is an athletic and explosive dude so he is capable of stringing together some powerful strikes and landing hard. He is knockout capable. However, I don’t think he is super skilled on the feet and capable of landing a ton in volume. I just don’t think he is a good striking round winner.
Simon will be taking on UFC veteran Raoni Barcelos. I have generally respected Barcelos’ skill as a fighter. He is a pretty decent striker and has that classic aggressive Brazilian striking style. He lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.40 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 60 percent. He also has some moderate power and has landed 3 knockdowns in his last 8 fights.
I also respect Barcelos as a grappler. He lands 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a capable submission grappler and submitted Chris Gutierrez a few years back as well as Christian Quinonez.
Barcelos also showed he can still grapple and wrestle in his recent upset win against Payton Talbott. Barcelos was a monster underdog in that matchup and landed 8 takedowns, obtained 9:43 of control and obtained a lot of dominant positions on the mat. He is capable of passing and taking the back. Barcelos also has stellar TDD at 85 percent.
The issue with Barcelos at this point is his career trajectory. He is 38 years old which isn’t ancient or anything, but it is on the older side for bantamweight. He also is not as good as he used to be. He looked declined against Quinonez even though he got the win.
Barcelos is still skillful though and that is what has allowed him to beat relatively inexperienced fighters in Talbott and Quinonez. I also like that Barcelos has not been getting knocked out often either. He has declined but he has only been knocked out once by Umar Nurmagomedov. He survived Talbott and Kyler Phillips.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think this is a competitive fight on paper. If these guys were both in their primes, I would actually pick Barcelos just because Barcelos has the takedown defense to neutralize Simon’s wrestling and he is a better striker than Simon on paper.
I actually am still going to pick Barcelos for those same reasons. However, I am a little less confident in Barcelos now than in the past. I think Simon may be able to strike more competitively now than in the past or maybe land some big shots. Simon may be able to have more grappling success now against an older Barcelos than in the past.
I still just want to analyze fights by styles though and I am not confident Simon just easily takes and holds Barcelos down. So it just makes me think these guys will strike for stretches and I would probably pick Barcelos in a straight striking fight over Simon. So I do think stylistically Barcelos has what it takes for the upset here and it is just a matter of whether he can execute at his older age.
Youth is on the side of Simon who is five years younger and honestly it may just carry him to victory and I almost picked him. I still just think Simon has looked bad lately and I didn’t even think in his most recent two wins that he looked good. He was losing to Basharat before a random KO and even vs Smotherman, he looked unimpressive. So I will pick Barcelos to sprawl and brawl to a win.
—
On DraftKings, I’m not sold that this fight is completely fantasy friendly and I’m also a bit taken aback by the betting odds.
I don’t particularly understand why Simon is favored, with the exception of age, which is hard to quantify. His striking metrics are pretty terrible, and I’ve always hated his control wrestling, where here against Barcelos, I’d be surprised if it worked.
Conversely, Barcelos may not be able to have lots of wrestling success either, and a striking fight could definitely be competitive with both sides taking occasional damage.
Ultimately, I’m definitely not sold on Simon as a favorite and I’m hesitant to target him at 8.4k. The only upside is that he could randomly land a knockout, which again is hard to quantify, but he’s not really a knockout artist and his ITD line is only +300.
Simon can also get there with lots of wrestling volume, but he hasn’t landed more than two takedowns once since 2021, and Barcelos is very difficult to control with an 85 takedown defense rate.
So to me it feels like guessing on a random KO, which could happen, but it’s not something that I’d bet on from a process standpoint. Feel free to use Simon as a secondary target alongside the field, but he doesn’t rate out as a strong play on paper.
Barcelos is my preferred target given the salary at 7.8k, but I’m concerned about his ceiling as well.
He is a much better submission grappler than Simon, and has some upside in that regard, but I don’t think he’ll be landing eight takedowns like we saw against Talbott. Simon hasn’t fought a ton of grinding wrestlers though, and 1-2 takedowns is certainly in play.
Otherwise, I fear Barcelos may need a knockout to be optimal as well. I’d project him for something like 60-70 sig. strikes in a win along with some takedowns, but that’s only a 70 point score on DraftKings. He’s also only +395 to win ITD.
Simon has been KOd a couple of times but it’s hard to bet on that outcome here.
This fight is -210 to go the distance and if it does, I would bet on the winner not being optimal. So you don’t have to prioritize either side. I do think Barcelos has some ML value but you can argue Simon may have a better shot at a flash KO.
I likely won’t be highly exposed to either but both are viable low-end secondary targets, with a slight lean for me on Barcelos given the fight analysis.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barcelos by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio
Fight Odds: Tulio -183, Duncan +155
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Tulio 8.7k, Duncan 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a fight between two rising prospects as Marco Tulio takes on Christian Leroy Duncan. Both fighters sport winning UFC records and this match figures to be a fun one for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.
Marco Tulio makes his return to the Octagon this weekend on a solid three fight KO streak and as someone to keep an eye on in this middleweight division. Tulio, in addition to being the boyfriend of Norma Dumont, has developed some hype with his entertaining striking style.
Product of a solid gym in Chute Boxe Diego Lima, he has delivered some impressive finishes including a devastating body shot on DWCS to earn his contract and a highlight reel KO over Ihor Poteira in his debut. Most recently, Marco Tulio put an absolute beating on Tresean Gore, landing 2 knockdowns and 127 significant strikes over 8 minutes en route to a brutal finish. There, he flashed urgency, power and solid cardio to maintain that pace for the course of the fight.
That hasn’t always been the case for Tulio, as originally he wasn’t given a contract from DWCS due to his lack of urgency in a win over Yousri Belgaroui. Since then, he has rattled off four knockouts in a row and has definitely proven the ability to show some urgency when needed.
His style revolves around his flashy striking with his numerous spinning attacks and powerful hooks. 10 of his 14 pro wins do come by KO, and that is the primary style of fighting he brings. With solid size and length for the decision, he is capable of dictating range and producing solid output with 7.54 strikes landed per minute, although his last performance boosted those numbers a bit.
With that being said, the increase in urgency has left some gaps defensively and he can be hit, most notably when throwing some spinning attacks. He was KO’d in his one pro loss back in 2018 and his defensive striking is something he will have to shore up as he’s climbing the ranks.
On the mat, his grappling has yet to translate into the UFC but we did see his ability to land a couple takedowns and rack up more than 6 minutes of control on the Contender Series. Regionally, he did show the ability to wrestle and with a black belt in his pocket, I do think he possesses the ability to take the fight there if needed, despite the lack of initiative for him to take it there.
Overall, he is a solid flashy striker on the feet with great power and solid volume. Despite the fact he can be left open defensively and has been all gas no brakes so far in the UFC, he does hold a well-rounded skillset offensively and one that should help him climb the ranks of this division, if he is able to stay safe on the feet and maintain his high output against a higher level of competition.
Christian Leroy Duncan broke onto the scene in Cage Warriors, where he went 7-0 and made a solid name for himself in the UK MMA scene. “CLD” has had some decent success in the division, going 5-2 under the UFC banner with four knockouts to his credit. That gives him an 83% finish rate and his flashy striking is what he is known for.
The 30-year-old utilizes his athleticism quite well inside the Octagon, looking to cut off the cage and land big flashy strikes. That is where he has the most success, as he is averaging 4.83 strikes landed per minute at a 59% accuracy. His style helps him set up big flying knees, spinning kicks and he most recently got a win by spinning elbow over Eryk Anders in August.
The forward pressure, shot selection and power is a solid attribute, but there are times where he can be lower volume and reluctant to throw, as he hunts for the big shots. However, if he does land he can shut your lights out and he has shown solid durability to withstand a fire fight.
On the mat, he does have the athleticism to land takedowns of his own and establish control, but defensively he can struggle. He does sport a 71% takedown defense and has the ability to keep it upright most of the time, but we have seen him taken down and controlled, and he doesn’t always have the capability to return to his feet.
He was taken down four times against Gregory Rodrigues and held down for more than eight minutes, and taken down and held down for more than three minutes against Armen Petrosyan, which are the only losses in his career.
Despite this, I do think he has solid durability and cardio, and someone who will continue to be a problem offensively as long as he is able to dictate the pace and place at which it takes place. Overall, CLD is a flashy power striker on the feet who relies on his pressure, timing and athleticism to land the big shots. I do think he has to shore up his get up game and improve his volume before taking over the top of the division, but someone who has shown promise as he continues to climb the ranks.
I do think this fight is a tough one to call but one that will deliver fireworks. Both fighters have gotten by while utilizing their athleticism and offense-first style.
We haven’t seen as much from Tulio, but his last performance was impressive as he was able to put a beating on his opponent with power, volume and sustained cardio for as long as it lasted. I do know he has the ability to take the fight to the mat here too, which he may need to do. But I still have my concerns about his defensive issues and lower level of completion.
CLD has fought the better guys and shown more technique in his striking. I think there’s a chance CLD is too clean and finds a counter against Tulio with his precise striking. But I have to think his slower paced striking and poor get up game may hold him back here.
Although CLD will be more technical, I think Tulio will be in his face and I know he has that extra grappling layer he showed against Belgaroui. Although the path is there for CLD, I think Tulio has more ways to win this one and I have to side with him to have more big moments with his striking and the ability to win rounds with grappling, although the later cardio and poor striking defence of Tulio make me doubt myself a little.
—
On DraftKings, Tulio is priced at 8.7k and could be a hot commodity coming off two big wins.
I want to be clear that on paper, this is a MUCH tougher matchup for Tulio to the pick that I am seriously questioning whether he wins. Gore offers nothing, and neither does Potieria. Duncan is a legit striker and is probably more technical than Tulio, and he’s never been finished.
The reason why I am hesitating a true fade on Tulio is that he could possibly also grapple. He did land a couple of takedowns on Belgaroui, and Duncan isn’t great from his back. Possibly that could translate into some success and a decent score.
If I have to bet on Tulio to just storm forward and KO Duncan, I don’t like that bet. I would definitely aim to be underweight to the field, assuming he’ll be popular. With recent wins of 144 and 113, I am guessing that’s the case.
Tulio is only +165 to win ITD and he’s a clear step down in priority for me from the top trio (including Reese), and I’d probably rather play Medic/main event/etc. So I will likely be underweight here and just hope for the best.
Tulio has shown finishing ability in his profile though, so it’s not out of the question he pops again. With additional grappling equity, he’s a fine secondary target. I just don’t love the matchup for him on paper.
Duncan is priced at 7.5k and I think he’s a solid target.
He could get a little attention coming off a 111 point TKO win but I don’t think the public is wanting to bet against Tulio at this point, which is fair. However, Tulio did get stung in his last fight by Gore, and his only pro loss was by TKO. I wouldn’t rule out some TKO upside for Duncan, and he’s +300 to win ITD which is OK.
The downside is that Duncan won’t wrestle. He’s not a volume specialist. He could score weakly in an extended fight. So he’s not some phenomenal fantasy target and the matchup isn’t easy.
I do also think we could just see these two strike a bit, and if that’s the case Duncan can certainly get his hand raised and he’s live to hurt Tulio as well. At a potential lower ownership and leverage against Tulio, I wouldn’t mind being on Duncan a bit and he could be a tad sneaky this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Duncan by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Hyder Amil vs. Jamall Emmers
Fight Odds: Amil -142, Emmers +121
Odds to end ITD: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Amil 8.2k, Emmers 8k
Weight Class: 145
We have a super fun fight between action fighters Hyder Amil and Jamall Emmers.
Amil is coming off a brutal 26-second TKO loss to Jose Delgado in June, which was the first professional loss of Amil’s career. He was previously 11-0 and had three impressive wins in the UFC already.
Amil is just all-action, to a fault. He’s a pressure boxer, and he’s very willing to throw himself into the pocket to wing combinations, even if it means leaving himself open defensively.
For the most part, Amil is typically the one damaging his opponent, and I’ve rarely seen him hurt or compromised. My guess is that we’ll see that change once he fights better competition, and perhaps it’s just been a measure of variance, but for better or worse, Amil has been very successful with his style.
On DWCS, Amil won a slower paced decision in which his opponent wrestled him aggressively, and landed five takedowns. Amil was only able to land 26 significant strikes in the contest.
It wasn’t a great fight, in part because Amil could not dominate. And he looked pretty exhausted trying to scramble with his opponent for three rounds. But that’s a tough style to face so I don’t blame him fully.
Since then, he racked up three wins in a row against Fernie Garcia, JeongYeong Lee and William Gomis.
Against Garcia and Lee, Amil basically fought in berserker mode until he was able to find finishes. He landed 79 sig. strikes and a takedown before pummelling Garcia midway through the second round. He then landed 42 sig. strikes in a minute to knock out Lee which is insane.
The Gomis fight was intriguing because Gomis is a more technical fighter and is more defensively sound. Gomis tried to strike and evade from distance, and he had mild success early in the fight, but ultimately could not keep Amil off him.
Amil was able to win the final two rounds due to his pacing, outlanding Gomis 115 to 101, to go along with one takedown.
And most recently, Delgado knocked him out quickly.
It surely doesn’t seem like anything will change moving forward. Amil’s style is to run through his opponents, and break them with pressure and pacing. He’s going to get hit plenty at distance, and occasionally he’ll get hurt doing so, but I’d bet on his fights continuing to bring the excitement.
Emmers has been one of my favorite fighters for years, though I wouldn’t put him in the same category as Amil.
Emmers is much more of an underrated, skilful fighter who hasn’t always had things go his way, partially due to the fault of his own.
Emmers is a very skilled wrestler, and lands 1.74 takedowns per 15 minutes while defending at 80 percent. He can be occasionally taken down but he’s very tough to hold down, and is typically strong at keeping the fight upright.
He’s also a really solid boxer, landing 5.45 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.07 in return with a 56 percent defensive rate. We’ve actually seen his power come to light recently and he’s earned his last two wins by early knockout.
Unfortunately, Emmers does have some issues. One major issue is his Fight IQ, which we’ve seen haunt him in the past. Most notably, he was badly hurting Pat Sabatini before trying to jump on his leg, which immediately got him heel hooked.
We’ve also seen Emmers get hurt and knocked out himself, by both Julian Erosa and Nate Landwehr.
I don’t view Emmers as a championship contender, but I do think he’s a really good fighter. He’s capable of winning both on the feet and on the mat, and isn’t easy to beat anywhere. But he doesn’t always separate and is somewhat liable to be finished.
This matchup is pretty intriguing, and I was initially surprised to see Amil as the favorite. In my mind, Emmers is clearly a step above Amil technically and that is enough to consider him the favorite outright.
At the same time, I think Amil’s style can give issues to Emmers in the same way that Landwehr gave him issues. At distance, Emmers is simply better than Amil. As a wrestler, Emmers is better than Amil.
If Amil is going to pressure Emmers, and force a brawl, that’s where Emmers is very much prone to breaking down, and that’s also the style in which Amil succeeds.
Had I not just seen Amil flatlined by Delgado, I would pick Amil to win (and I was hoping to do so as the underdog). Now I have more pause, as I think Emmers also has a chance to hurt Amil early.
Essentially, I view this fight as Emmers winning pretty cleanly until he isn’t. Amil’s wrestling upside should be pretty firmly capped in this matchup, and I think Emmers can likely land takedowns if he wants.
It’s also possible Emmers is just a level ahead of Amil as a boxer, and can hurt him early.
It also seems extremely likely that the pressure of Amil will eventually get to Emmers, and from that point, Amil might just swarm him and find the finish himself. That could honestly come early in the fight too.
I kind of lean toward Amil winning this matchup as I haven’t liked Emmers as much in chaotic affairs. It’s still worth noting he’s the more skillful and well-rounded fighter here.
—
On DraftKings, both sides could be priorities although Amil feels like the easier click of the two.
He’s priced at 8.2k and has scored 95.7, 106.8, and 131.8 in his three UFC wins. He’s +130 to win ITD here and I think a win for Amil probably comes by knockout.
My main hesitations are that I don’t think Amil can wrestle much in this matchup, which does limit him to a degree. I also don’t think he’s better than Emmers technically. So if he’s going to line up as the chalk, that makes me nervous.
On the flip side, Amil could easily land 60-80 sig. strikes and score a RD 1/2 finish, which is one of the more likely outcomes of the matchup. He could definitely exceed 90 or 100 points and contend for the optimal lineup at 8.2k.
I don’t think Amil should be clearly favored to win, but he seems like a strong secondary target for upside at this price tag and I’d like moderate exposure personally.
Emmers at 8k isn’t as strong of a fantasy scorer but he could present upside in this matchup too.
To be fair, he’s coming off multiple KO wins that scored 130.1 and 130.7, so maybe he will be popular too with Amil getting KOd recently. Those wins came against non-UFC level talents in Gabriel Miranda and Dennis Buzukja though.
Otherwise, Emmers is more of a patient fighter and is more likely to bust in an extended fight. He could land 1-2 takedowns and 80 significant strikes, and score 70-80 in a win. He’s only +215 to win ITd.
However, you can also make the case that Amil’s fights are going to lead to strong scores for the winner, regardless of whether it’s him or his opponent. He creates so many exchanges that if someone beats him, they’ll have to produce offense.
I noted this when he fought Gomis who is typically SUPER slow paced, and Gomis ultimately lost and would have only scored 70 in a win, but he still far exceeded his typical output.
So Emmers won’t rate out as well here, BUT he does have some knockout upside, and he may have to work at a high rate given Amil’s style. That could mean additional takedowns, which is probably the ideal way to add onto his score.
Emmers is only a secondary target compared to Amil who is closer to a primary one, but I still think Emmers is worthy of some exposure and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won. He could provide some leverage against Amil as well.
I’ll be relatively high on this matchup in total with a lean toward Amil based on his fantasy profile.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amil by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Fight Odds: Cavalcanti -254, Bueno Silva +212
Odds to end ITD: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Cavalcanti 9.3k, Bueno Silva 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random fight here between Jacqueline Cavalcanti and Maryna Bueno Silva.
We actually bet Cavalcanti back-to-back as she won split decisions against Josiane Nunes and Nora Cornolle. She then defeated Julia Avila by decision in her most recent fight.
Cavalcanti is now 4-0 in the UFC and is generally a range distance striker. She employs a lot of movement on the outside, and looks to land her kicks and punches on the outside and skate away from her opponents.
She lands 5.73 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.32 in return. She has pretty good range control and defense and is defending strikes at a fantastic 70 percent.
I overall think Cavalcanti is a fine striker who can win rounds on the feet at this level. I do think she lacks a bit in power and aggression though. She was definitely the better and more skillful striker in her matchup against Nunes and outlanded her comfortably. However, Nunes made the fight more competitive than it should have been by simply being the aggressor and landing some occasional power shots. So optically, Cavalcanti may struggle a bit even if she is outlanding her opponents.
Cavalcanti doesn’t look to grapple much and doesn’t look interested in wrestling offensively. She actually hasn’t attempted a takedown in her four UFC fights which spans 12 rounds.
Her defensive grappling looks competent, but I haven’t seen her tested there all that much either. She defended 8/9 takedowns against Cornolle which was good. However, she was taken down by Avila at the end of round 2 and took a while to get back to her feet. I think her defensive grappling clearly looks competent but it is still WMMA and I do think she is someone who can get taken down and held down here and there.
Cavalcanti will be taking on UFC veteran Maryna Bueno Silva. Silva is a weird fighter. Even though she is mostly a striker, she has 6 wins in the UFC and 5 have actually come by submission.
Silva is an okay striker. She lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.85 in return. That honestly isn’t good and she can be outslicked and skilled on the feet. Her defense is just not good. However, she hits pretty hard for a woman so she can make up for her negative striking ratio with effective strikes and power.
Silva lands 0.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t the best takedown artist. I do think she is tricky and has instincts for finding the back which she did against Pennington in her title fight. However, her actual takedowns aren’t great.
Silva defends takedowns at an okay 63 percent. However, she can be held down for stretches and doesn’t have the best get-ups. She can also surrender ground-and-pound at times. She does have a dangerous guard though. I mean, as I mentioned above, she has 5 submission wins in the UFC.
I don’t totally like Silva’s process as a fighter to be honest. She can lose rounds on the feet by being outlanded because her defense is suspect. She can also be held down on the mat. She is super dangerous though. She has finishing ability on the feet and on the mat so it honestly just makes her fights difficult to predict as it is a guessing game on how many big moments Silva can have. Big moments are just tough to predict.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Cavalcanti has the profile to sprawl and brawl to a striking based decision. Cavalcanti probably has the defensive grappling to keep this upright and if they stay standing, she is the better striker on paper and can probably skate to a decision. I will pick that to happen.
I still just think Silva is dangerous. She could land a big shot here to swing a round. This is also WMMA and Silva is a dangerous submission grappler so a random submission could happen.
I am also not ruling out Silva getting a random takedown and getting the back. I know she doesn’t land many takedowns on paper but she still landed 3 takedowns on Pennington and is a decent back taker. I do think a takedown could happen here which could lead to a round in the bank for Silva.
Also if these girls just strike I could just see Silva being competitive on aggression and power. She hits harder than Cavalcanti. If Nunes can take Cavalcanti to a split decision in a full blown striking fight, I think Silva can too. So there are paths to victory for Silva.
—
On DraftKings, Cavalcanti is priced up to 9.3k and won’t be a priority.
Although I think she’s a solid fighter, she hasn’t proven to be a fantasy commodity to this point. In her UFC wins, Cavalcanti has scored 59.6, 65.3, 66.4, and 80.8 which are all relatively poor scores.
It’s simply because of her style. She’s a moderate-high volume striker with little to no interest in grappling. She has not yet landed a takedown in the UFC and striking volume does not score well on DraftKings.
Now we have a fight that’s -375 to go the distance, and Cavalcanti’s ITD line is +650, so what can we expect from her? Probably another 70 DraftKings points in a decision win, which is nowhere close to enough.
The field will see the same thing here, so I’m guessing Cavalcanti will come in super low owned, and potentially near the 10 percent mark. She is a full-on contrarian target, but not one that I like.
Her only real chance is to score a knockout, which is possible, but very hard to bet on. I would rather not invest my money here but with a large portfolio, using her as an occasional differentiator is in play.
Bueno Silva is the preferred target of the two at 6.9k, though I’m not very interested in her.
At least she has finishing equity on paper, and her ITD line is far better than Cavalcanti’s at +365. She is a dangerous submission grappler, and probably has the grappling advantage in this matchup.
Her takedowns aren’t strong though, and she should be outclassed at distance. It’s hard to bet on her to have success in this matchup and historically, a lot of her success has come from her being taken down and finding subs from her back.
So it’s really hard to justify a lot of exposure to Bueno Silva here. However, she at least has a path to victory on the mat, mild finishing equity, and she’s opportunistic to take advantage of a scramble. Cavalcanti has fought a lot of opponents close thus far.
I’d only consider Bueno Silva a low-end play but she’s a viable one at her price tag in a small percentage of lineups.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Josh Hokit vs. Max Gimenis
Fight Odds: Hokit -430, Gimenis +340
Odds to end ITD: -550
DraftKings Salaries: Hokit 9.4k, Gimenis 6.8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a clash of debuting heavyweights as DWCS alum Josh Hokum takes on BJJ specialist Max Gimenis. Let’s dive in.
Max Hokit had a pretty memorable Dana White’s Contender series appearance this year as “the Incredible Hok” did his best Colby Covington/instigator impersonation. While his time on the mic involved praising America, trashing his opponent and some pretty polarizing comments, he did back it up in the Octagon with a second round finish.
The 27 year old has had a pretty wild ride so far, being an All-American wrestler at Fresno State as well as being signed as a full back for the 49ers in the NFL. Although he didn’t have the most success in football at the professional level, his name value helped him get signed to Bellator as a fighter without any professional experience, where he went 2-0 with two finishes.
He continued that run in the LFA, fighting some okay-ish competition but disposing of all of them the same way, via his wrestle heavy ground attack.
Hokit sports a 100% finish rate and his wrestling is his best attribute. He is able to use his college experience and solid athleticism to shoot blast doubles and establish top control. From there, he is patient, favoring control on the mat and waiting for his opening before improving position.
He does have decent BJJ on the mat but I think his best attribute is the ground-and-pound which can be pretty impactful.
On the feet, he has solid fundamentals. A decent jab, solid cross. But it’s still something that is improving and only a means to close distance and get the fight to the mat. His takedown threat does allow the overhand right to sneak through, although I have my concerns about him on the feet over an extended period of time. On the mat, no one has shown that much resistance.
His last opponent was able to reverse and try to scramble on the mat, where Hokit showed his ability to chain together takedowns and establish control. I do have questions about his ability to succeed in an extended affair, as his only fight to go past 6 minutes was his MMA debut against a 0-0 fighter who has not fought since. But his resiliency and cardio has yet to really be tested.
Overall, Hokit is a polarizing figure (or trying to be) who the UFC can paint as the bad guy to sell fights, who has a one dimensional wrestling attack. Despite this, he is able to get by with solid athleticism, good thought process on the mat and good finishing instincts. I think there are still improvements to be seen in the striking and cardio but as someone who started in MMA 2 years ago, he projects to be a decent prospect in the UFC.
Max Gimenis was an interesting signing to the UFC as he was signed directly without having to compete on DWCS or other large promotions. Gimenis is 6-1 with all of his fights happening on Shogun fights.
There, he has 4 wins by KO and 1 by submission for a 83% finish rate. This is a little surprising, as Gimenis is a BJJ specialist. The Brazilian sports an overall grappling record of 106-46, with top finishes in Gi and no Gi competition worldwide. He has actually won a few IBJJF pan championships and has been competing in grappling as recently as 2024. He also has some karate combat experience, but has yet to really showcase that top level grappling inside the cage.
To his credit, he hasn’t really had to as he has fought some of the lowest competition imaginable. Max has yet to fight or beat anyone with a winning record. Although he’s knocking out 1-3, 7-8 and 9-9 guys, he’s also taking the 6-14 Cameron Graham to decision and being KO’d in round one to the 1-3 David White.
Although we know he has that grappling in his back pocket, I struggle to find clips of him utilizing it too well. His tape is few and far between and I’m not sure how much knocking out cans tells me about him. What I will say is he does have power. He is able to find the off switch and hit hard, despite his striking looking a bit slow he does have the ability to put your lights out.
On the mat, no one has really tried to take him down and I don’t blame them with his credentials. But I still have questions about his striking defense, durability and cardio, and if he will even use the grappling accolades he has spent his life acquiring.
Overall, Gimenis is a decent heavyweight striker with an extensive grappling background. However we have questions to be answered about how he will fare against solid competition, how his chin will hold up, and where he chooses to take the fight. Although I think he has solid tools, there is still much to learn about what Max Gimenis will bring inside the octagon.
Simply put, this is a weird one. On first glance, this looked to be a clear opportunity for “the incredible Hok” to get a win, get back on the mic and say somethings that will likely get him cancelled by the outside world. Hokit has been fighting decent comp and steamrolling them, and training out of Jackson Wink, you have to think is still improving his skills to combine with his solid athleticism. So seeing him face someone with the record of Gimenis, it made sense to see Hokit as a large favorite.
However I’m not completely sold on trusting him here. Don’t get me wrong, I’m picking Hokit. I think he can dictate where the fight takes place, utilizing his athleticism to land the bigger shots. But he wants to do his work on the mat. On the feet, he is a bit of an unknown and I have yet to see how he fares against a competent grappler.
If he wants to take down Gimenis, you have to think that plays into Gimenis’ extensive BJJ skillset and that it might be difficult for Hokit to look -400 there. So can he cover this price tag on the feet? Gimenis isn’t great and can be hurt, but will Hokit keep it standing?
There are just plenty of questions surrounding a 6-0 fighter who started MMA 2 years ago. So at the end of the day, I do think this is a spot Hokit should win. He will have the better athleticism, speed and physicality to dictate where the fight takes place. If he’s on top, although he will have to be careful about Gimenis’ skillset, he should be able to land solid ground and pound.
On the feet, I trust his durability, level of comp and training camp behind him to be improving his striking and be better in that situation. So although I’m not sure how much I like the -400 price tag, I do think Hokit is the A-side and should be able to win this matchup, despite some questions still being up in the air about both fighters.
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On DraftKings, this is a big mess given the lack of sample we have on both sides.
Hokit is a huge favorite and priced as the biggest favorite on the slate at 9.4k, but it’s impossible to know what the true line is here. There are almost no pro MMA fights from Gimenis available.
Given what we know, I could see the fight playing out in a number of ways. Hokit could try to wrestle, and have success given his credentials. Gimenis could just look tired and poor from the bottom and this could be another easy TKO win. Or given Gimenis’ BJJ credentials, Hokit might not be able to do anything other than lay on him.
Maybe Hokit will want to keep the fight upright, and maybe he’ll just be able to hurt Gimenis badly who has been TKOd in his only pro loss. But relying on a wrestler to be some elite boxer scares me a bit.
Maybe given these two credentials, Hokit will get a little bit frustrated if he’s unable to easily dominate Gimenis on the mat as he’s done to past opponents. And maybe Gimenis will be able to take control of grappling exchanges, and find a finish himself.
The only pro fight of Gimenis’ I saw, he actually landed a nice takedown. Maybe he can actually find a way to the top?
I’m open to all ideas. Obviously Hokit is rating out extremely well with wrestling equity, and he’s -250 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate. He can be prioritized at the top of the board and he’ll rate out among the best overall targets this week.
I just think there’s a lot of variance here. The safest answer is likely to follow the field, but I don’t hate the idea of pivoting off him more than the field, hoping that we find Hokit simply cannot dominate Gimenis. I’ll likely end up with moderate exposure and I expect he’ll be very chalky.
Gimenis feels worth a stab at 6.8k, though he won’t carry any real floor.
The most likely outcome on paper is that he gets finished, and doesn’t score much. He should be the better submission grappler here and is more experienced in high-level submission grappling fights. I wouldn’t be stunned if he won ITD.
Gimenis is only +425 to win ITD and doesn’t rate out well, but he’ll carry leverage against Hokit and has some upside in his profile. He feels worthy of low-end exposure and if the field is going to ignore him, I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field.
Super high-variance matchup all things considered but hopefully a fun one.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hokit by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Tecia Pennington vs. Denise Gomes
Fight Odds: Gomes -185, Pennington +157
Odds to end ITD: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Gomes 8.9k, Pennington 7.3k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two UFC veterans here as Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres) will be taking on Denise Gomes.
Pennington is a fairly well-rounded fighter with a ton of experience. She is coming off a decision win against Luana Pinheiro where I thought she underperformed expectations to a degree but looked okay.
I mostly consider Pennington a striker. She lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.48 in return. She is skilled as a striker and is technical. She has outlanded her last five opponents and actually outlanded Angela Hill 144-96 in significant strikes in a very good performance. I generally respect Pennington on the feet, but I do wish she had a little more power. I also thought she looked a bit hesitant in her last matchup against Pinheiro.
Pennington isn’t a very effective offensive wrestler. She lands 0.54 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 13 percent. She is okay as a defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 64 percent and can scramble up at times. She recently defended 9 of 10 takedowns against Tabatha Ricci which was good. Esparza had success vs Pennington but Pennington did defend at times. Pinheiro landed five takedowns but Pennington worked up well.
Overall, Pennington is a solid fighter at this weight class with a ton of experience. She can strike in volume and has good cardio, and is generally competent as a grappler. She has no major holes. She just doesn’t have a ton of power or offensive wrestling to always separate.
Pennington will be taking on Denise Gomes. Gomes is now 5-2 in the UFC with her losses coming to Loma Lookboonmee and Angela Hill.
Gomes is best as a power striker. She actually has a Muay Thai Kickboxing win over Marina Rodriguez.
Gomes is just a bull and is super aggressive. She throws really hard punches in the pocket and is capable of landing in volume and in power. She landed 103 significant strikes in her contender series fight. She lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.04in return.
Her offense doesn’t look all that technical and I do question her defense a bit. However, I do think her range control is decent and I do like her aggression and power. She has three knockout wins in the UFC which is good and is one of the few WMMA fighters in this weight division who can land one punch knockouts.
I think Gomes is going to do fine in the UFC based on her aggression and power alone. She just closes distance and pressures well and makes her opponents uncomfortable. She is definitely an above-average hitter for strawweight as well. Gomes can also turn her pressure into takedowns. I don’t think she is a good offensive grappler though, and she isn’t very technical. However, she can use her physicality vs weaker grapplers to get top position.
My main issue with Gomes is her takedown defense. She defends takedowns at 67 percent and was taken down by Loma Lookboonmee four times on five attempts, and controlled for seven minutes. Gomes also gave up advances of position against Lookboonme. Hill also dominated Gomes on the mat. She was also taken down five times against Eduardo Moura.
I do think Gomes’ get-ups looked a bit better vs Hill and Moura though. She isn’t a terrible defensive grappler, but she is a bit too power based and tries to explode to escape and reverse position. She can defensively grapple against plenty of girls but good grapplers will have success against her.
I still do respect Gomes. She has power and is super aggressive and seems experienced as a striker. Gomes also at least survives on the mat. She has never been submitted in her professional career.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a very competitive fight that generally stays standing.
I do think if anyone has grappling success, it will be Gomes as she is a more aggressive pursuer of takedowns. I don’t think Gomes can dominate with grappling here though as Pennington can probably defend several takedowns or work up. I could see Gomes stealing a round with wrestling though.
On the feet, this is close man. I think I prefer the youth and power of Gomes. Gomes just hits so much harder and that may be something that the judges like, and I do expect this to go the distance. I also just think Gomes is more likely to land a knockdown or knockout, although a knockout would really surprise me. So the power of Gomes is what is making me pick her in this matchup.
I still think Pennington is a more technical striker and it isn’t like Gomes has been winning striking based decisions against good strikers. The last fight Gomes had where she fought an experienced striker was Angela Hill and Gomes lost. So honestly Pennington winning a competitive decision is totally on the table and she very well may get the upset this weekend.
I still think Gomes has more upside with her power though so she is the pick.
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On DraftKings, Gomes is another expensive fighter who will be tough to prioritize.
She’s priced at 8.9k and probably needs a knockout. She is a high paced fighter but landing 80-100 sig. strikes in 15 minutes doesn’t help us from a fantasy perspective.
I’m also not sold on her ability to wrestle and control Pennington, who has been taken down a bunch recently. A few takedowns are possible I suppose.
Otherwise, Gomes is +300 to win ITD and Pennington has never been knocked down, let alone finished. I like the power of Gomes but I can’t bet on her to win by TKO.
Gomes has some big DK scores but they’re from finishes. In theory she has paths here on the mat and with power, but I can’t really bet on either personally and I think the most likely outcome is an 80 point score in a decision.
At 8.9k, Gomes is only a contrarian target and she’s not one I’m extremely interested in.
Pennington is priced at 7.3k and is a viable floor target.
The downside to Pennington is that she doesn’t wrestle and she can’t finish fights. She’s +800 to win ITD.
With Pennington, you’re very likely either getting 70-80 points in a win, or 30something points in a loss. I do think she has a real path here via technical striking, but that would still only result in a competitive decision.
I view Pennington as more of a floor play here. She should last three rounds. The fight could be close. She’ll be a viable cash punt. It’s tough to justify a lot of exposure to her in tournaments and she’d need a lot of other dogs to fail for her to stand out.
For 7.3k, Pennington is viable as a low-end sprinkle but her ceiling concerns are real and that should firmly cap your exposure in larger fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gomes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos
Fight Odds: Marcos -185, Johns +167
Odds to end ITD: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Marcos 8.5k, Johns 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent matchup here in the bantamweight division between Daniel Marcos and Miles Johns.
Marcos is a Peruvian fighter who is 17-1 professionally Marcos booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Brandon Lewis on the Contender Series by a dominant striking decision. He has since gone 4-1 in the UFC with a couple of decent wins as well. He recently lost to Montel Jackson by decision.
Marcos is primarily a striker with 8 wins coming by knockout and 9 by decision. He has no submission wins in his career.
I actually think Marcos is a solid striker. He lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.88 in return, defending strikes at a solid 61 percent. He also does well in head strike numbers.
Marcos is a well-rounded and aggressive striker who mixes in some NASTY calf kicks and has good punches as well. He also has solid conventional kicks. He can mix it up to the body as well with kicks or punches. He also keeps up a decent pace and all of his shots are impactful. He did have a low paced fight vs Grant and Jackson but he is capable of throwing in volume at times.
I also think Marcos can strike going forwards or backwards which is rare. He is good at evading and going backwards, and countering if he needs to. He got a bit tired in round three of his DWCS fight but he actually fought through it well and still won round three just fine. That fight was also fought at a hard pace.
Marcos doesn’t look to wrestle much and his takedown defense seems fine at 84 percent. I do think his takedown defense is relatively untested though. He has defended takedowns at 84 percent thus far.
Marcos has been hurt in a couple of fights though. He doesn’t look to have bad durability but I do think he can be put out.
Marcos will be taking on UFC veteran Miles Johns. Johns is a decent fighter. He is a serviceable striker. He lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.99 in return. He defends strikes at a good 66 percent. He generally just does a good job staying out of danger. He also has a bit of pop and has won by knockout a couple of times in the UFC.
I am still not completely sold on Johns as a striker though. He hasn’t really outstruck any good strikers. He also has a hard time when opponents pressure him or push a pace as he either gasses or just gets overwhelmed and ends up losing. He almost seems to have to fight at his own striking pace to win. However, I still think he has improved as a striker though.
Johns is a decent wrestler and comes from a wrestling background. However, he is only landing 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, and attempting about three takedowns per fight. So you can’t really rely on his wrestling all that much.
Johns is still a solid wrestler though and defends takedowns at 83 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is very close.
On the feet, I do lean Marcos a bit. I think Marcos is a bit more dynamic and versatile as a striker and I think he can fight at a higher pace. I still think Johns has improved as a striker though and his metrics aren’t bad. I do think the striking exchanges could be competitive and Marcos has had a couple of performances where he underperformed my striking expectations. I still mildly favor Marcos a bit.
I do favor Johns as a wrestler though. Johns isn’t great with his top control but Marcos hasn’t been all that tested as a grappler. I do think Johns is more likely to land takedowns here and get a bit of top control. I don’t expect Johns to dominate with grappling. However, I could see Johns edging out a round with some wrestling success.
So this just looks like a close fight to me. These guys will probably strike competitively with a slight lean towards Marcos. Johns may be able to strike competitively and wrestle a bit to narrow the gap. This has close decision written all over it.
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On DraftKings, I’m struggling to firmly commit this matchup but I do like the potential for some chaotic exchanges.
Marcos is a dangerous striker and Johns can sometimes get backed up and overly reliant on his mediocre takedown game. So I could see a possibility where Marcos can do some damage or score a late finish. Johns always has DraftKings viability for his wrestling volume, though I don’t necessarily love his game.
Here we have Marcos priced at 8.5k, and he’s probably reliant on the knockout which is tricky. Johns has been knocked down twice, and Marcos is +315 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong.
We essentially just have to put him into a boom or bust category, which makes things difficult as he doesn’t rate out well. I’d consider him a viable secondary target but the most likely outcome here is probably a mid-paced decision where Marcos fails to stand out. I don’t mind mixing him in for damage upside though.
Johns is priced at 7.7k and may be the preferred target. He’s coming off a 65 point loss which is exactly what we’d want again here.
In that fight he landed five takedowns and did little with it, but it was almost enough to get the nod. Marcos has been taken down here and there, and I think a few takedowns for Johns are pretty viable.
However, it’s also worth noting Johns had never landed more than three takedowns in a fight before, and he’s inconsistent in that sense. So 2-3 takedowns is probably a more fair projection than 5+.
Again, the most likely outcome here is probably a competitive decision where Johns fails to stand out, and he’s only +550 to win ITD. But at 7.7k, I can at least justify secondary exposure as a few takedowns and some control could turn into a mid-80s score, with a touch of upside on top of that if he can reach five takedowns again.
I won’t be too heavy on either side here, but I don’t mind mixing in Johns around the field given his wrestling equity, and Marcos has a bit of finishing equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Marcos by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jackson McVey vs. Zachary Reese
Fight Odds: Reese -304, McVey +250
Odds to end ITD: Under 1.5 RDs -220
DraftKings Salaries: Reese NA (Projected 9.2k), McVey 7.9k
Weight Class: 195
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
We get the fight night started with a short notice catchweight bout between guys who are still trying to find their footing inside the UFC. Zachary Reese gets the short notice call to take on Jackson McVey, in what should be a frantic fight for as long as it lasts.
Shoutout to Zachary Reese for taking this fight just over three days’ notice. Although it has been an up and down road for Reese, he has been game to scrap and this will be his 7th fight in the last two years.
He made his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series as a 5-0 prospect with five first round finishes. After another first round submission there and a couple more inside the Octagon, he has now seen 78% of his fights end in the very first round.
Unfortunately, that means some losses as well as he has been KO’d in round one twice, once to Azamat Bekoev and once to Cody Brundage via slam while going for an armbar. Like his opponent, he is a pretty front loaded fighter. He blitzes forward early, utilizing power and a pretty slick ground game to get his opponents out of there as quickly as possible.
However, we must also acknowledge the fact we have seen him now win two decisions. Although it has come against some really poor competition in Jose Medina and Dusko Todorovic, he showed the ability to wrestle over extended periods of time and win optics on the judges’ scorecards. Despite this, if it were up to him, early finish is the way he would like to go.
He is an offensively minded fighter with a solid frame for the division. He stands at 6’4 and utilizes that big frame with power from distance or to bully his opponents to the mat. He averages 4.24 strikes landed per minute so far in the UFC and 2.82 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Where he struggles is mostly defensively, as he only defends strikes at 45% and we have seen him finished a couple times before. We also saw him taken down four times and controlled for 5:30 against Dusko last time, as he is willing to play off his back hunting for submissions.
Overall, Reese is a dangerous and offensively minded fighter who will look to blitz into range with solid power and a decent submission arsenal if he gets on top. I have my questions defensively, as I’m not too sure how his striking defence, durability or defensive grappling game will hold up, but he has shown improvements so far in the UFC and I think he can hold his own as he continues to climb the ranks.
Jackson McVey has his second UFC bout this weekend and his run in the UFC has certainly not been an easy one. He was originally supposed to fight SD Dumas in his debut in June, before having him drop out, another opponent stepped in, just to miss weight by more than 10 pounds. He was then rescheduled to fight the ever dangerous Brunno Ferreira who finished him with an armbar in round one.
Now, his original opponent Robert Valentin drops out and in steps Zachary Reese on a few days’ notice. McVey has not had the best scheduling luck, but is still someone who has worked his way to the UFC off some solid early finishing action. He is 6-1 with all 7 of his fights ending in round 1, win or lose. His victories are split evenly with 3 KO wins and 3 submission wins.
He is a lanky middleweight with a 6’4 frame and a 77” reach. “The moose” is uber aggressive off the start and is instantly trying to close the distance and work in the clinch. He isn’t the best striker from range, but in the clinch he is able to use his long limbs to lock up a pretty solid front headlock series. He has some good dirty boxing there too but there is a very limited sample size on him so far.
Despite the short amount of tape, with three of his wins coming in under a minute, he also is fighting bottom of the barrel guys. I’m not too sure how wins over the 7-13 Jaquis Williams and 2-5 Tom Krenzel are going to translate to the UFC level, but still he is doing what he has to do to get his wins.
I still have questions about his distance striking. It seems like although he has the frame, he doesn’t utilize his reach well and leaves gaps defensively blitzing in. Although he attacks the back well and uses the front headlock series to get finishes, I also have my questions defensively as he has been armbar’d twice, including on the amateur scene in 41 seconds to Wes Schultz.
Overall, I think McVey is an all-action early grappling threat, who can lock up submissions and look to implement damage in the clinch. However I have my questions about his grappling, distance striking, cardio and level of competition and I have to see more from him before trusting him at too high of a clip.
At the end of the day, this is a short notice matchup that has fireworks written all over it. Coming into the UFC, both of these UFC fighters had all their fights end in the first round. In fact, at this point in time, 16 of their combined 18 fights have ended in the very first round, win or lose. We have seen more from Reese inside the Octagon, as he has shown the ability to win decisions and shown more resiliency against a better level of competition, but both of these guys rate out to be glass cannons who do not prioritize defence whatsoever.
With both having long frames and the willingness to clinch early, I wouldn’t be surprised for an early finish on either side. However, despite this being on short notice, I have seen more from Reese from range and have to favor his physicality and power on the feet. I do think McVey has a path with the grappling or even on the feet considering the questionable durability of Reese. But I think that having seen Reese fight an extended affair and have more success from range, I favour him to be the better minute winner, quicker striking and stronger fighter that could help him dictate where this fight takes place, as well as give him some wrestling upside in his own right.
Although I have questions about durability and cardio, especially on short notice, I have to back Reese to be able to win minutes and be the more dangerous, proven striker here.
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On DraftKings, we’ll have to wait and see what price Reese gets but I’m expecting him to be one of the most expensive fighters on the board, and probably lined right below Hokit and Morales.
He’s currently lined at -304 to win but again, the fight was only announced in the last day, so it will be worth keeping an eye on that line.
Additionally, the fight is currently -220 to end in less than 1.5 rounds, making it among the most likely fights to finish on the entire slate. It seems valid given the profiles on both sides.
We still don’t have major samples on McVey, but at this point I have to assume Reese is a significantly better and more dangerous distance striker, and he’s probably the better wrestler too. I think he will carry early finishing equity and I’d expect him to have among the best ITD props on the slate.
He could be viewed as an outright priority, honestly. Of course there is risk here, and an extended fight would scare me, but I’m not even sure if Reese will have the cardio on short notice to fight three hard rounds. Something chaotic probably happens early, and a lot of Reese’s win equity will be tied to a finish.
So yeah, despite the short notice nature, I’m very willing to play Reese on this slate. A RD 1/2 finish is very much on the table and he seems like a solid upside target, right alongside the two fighters priced above him.
McVey is extremely overpriced now at 7.9k and I’m guessing he won’t be owned much because of this.
He’s also coming off a quick loss, and people are hesitant to buy into his skill set, so he probably ends up sub 15 percent owned this week. He will rate out as a contrarian and leverage target because of it.
My only hesitation in writing him off is that he too seems likely to win ITD early if he wins at all. And we’ve seen Reese deaded early a couple of times. While I don’t think a TKO is very much on the table, an early submission for McVey could be.
Essentially, McVey still carries a legit ceiling in a win, and for a super low ownership, I don’t think he’s an awful target. I can’t label him a real secondary target considering he’s overpriced, but I’d want a bit of exposure if I had a large portfolio to work with.
I will have to prioritize other fighters with more win equity nearby, but I at least see the benefit of the ceiling + ownership for McVey, and would consider him as an occasional differentiator.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reese by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)