UFC 322: Maddalena vs. Makhachev (11/15/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
Fight Odds: Makhachev -264, Maddalena +219
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Makhachev 9.2k, Maddalena 7k
Weight Class: 170
The welterweight title is up for grabs as current champion Jack Della Maddalena will take lightweight champion Islam Makhachev.
Maddalena earned the crown with a victory over Belal Muhammad in May, outlanding him 178 to 132 over five rounds, and doing his best to limit the wrestling attack of Muhammad.
I’ve always considered Maddalena to be one of the better strikers in the division, and it wasn’t a particular surprise that he was better than Belal in that area. In particular, he’s effective and he fights at a high pace, landing 6.84 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate.
Maddalena is now 8-0 in the UFC with four wins by knockout, and he’ll carry both knockout upside and round winning upside moving forward.
The question to me has always come on the mat, where Maddalena is simply less skilled than he is on the feet. He’s survived everything that has come his way, but only barely.
Ange Loosa had him in a deep arm-triangle choke on DWCS, but Maddalena survived. He survived an initial burst from Ramazan Emeev as well in 2022. Bassil Hafez nearly beat Maddalena on short notice, landing three takedowns with nearly seven minutes of control in 2023.
In 2024, Maddalena was down two rounds to zero against Gilbert Burns, who was able to take him down seven times on 11 attempts, and control him for more than five minutes. But Maddalena was able to find a third-round knockout to secure him the title shot.
And against Belal Muhammad, Maddalena fought well, but Belal honestly didn’t press the wrestling pace that much. He attempted four takedowns in the first three rounds combined, which just isn’t enough. He still took Maddalena down twice in the fifth round and controlled him for a stretch, but it wasn’t enough.
Overall, it’s just difficult for me to feel confident in Maddalena from a wrestling standpoint. I think he’s a fine offensive grappler, and his defense is adequate. He’s defending takedowns at 69 percent historically. He has almost lost a few times though and I think there’s probably regression coming.
That’s going to be a tough setup against Islam Makhachev, who is among the best grapplers in the sport today, and arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, who’s also 27-1 professionally with 15 consecutive wins in the UFC.
Makhachev is an elite wrestler, and he lands 3.20 takedowns per 15 minutes while also defending at 90 percent. He doesn’t top out at elite volume numbers but he’s very consistent to land about a takedown per round, and with it, he can dominate control and/or finish the fight.
Makhachev hasn’t always been a fight finisher, and doesn’t throw as much ground-and-pound as his training partner and coach Khabib Nurmagomedov, but he’s shown to be an excellent submission grappler and now has six submission wins in his last nine fights.
On the feet, Makhachev isn’t nearly as skilled, and that’s where he is arguably a liability. His only pro loss came by KO in 2015, and we saw him pretty badly hurt by Volkanovski as well.
He also doesn’t throw a ton of volume compared to others in the division like Maddalena, only landing 2.63 sig. strikes per minute.
However, Makhachev is a good boxer, and he’s improved dramatically over the years. He outboxed Dustin Poirier in one of his recent fights, and more importantly, he only absorbs 1.55 sig. strikes per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate.
So this isn’t a case where if Makhachev is forced to strike, he’s dead in the water. He won’t land a million punches, but he’s going to control exchanges and he does incredibly well to limit punches coming back his way.
Now Makhachev is climbing up a division from 155 to 170, and there is some inherent variance without having seen him fight at this weight class. Adding that extra poundage could be helpful, or hurtful. It could slow him down physically, or make him more powerful. He’ll have to cut less weight, but he’ll face bigger hitters. For the most part I’ll just assume we’ll see the classic version of Makhachev.
From a matchup perspective, you could view this as a striker vs. a grappler, with Makhachev having a clear path to victory on the mat, and Maddalena having a clear path to victory on the feet.
I would favor Maddalena over Makhachev in a pure kickboxing fight for five rounds, just based on the volume. I actually think that fight could be competitive, and I respect Makhachev’s striking skills more than others do. The fight would be slower paced and it’s just very hard to outland Makhachev at distance.
Plus, any wrestling threat from Makhachev could make Maddalena more hesitant to throw without caution. Makhachev could hurt him too.
I’d lean toward that type of fight being competitive, but Maddalena has shown a much higher volume ceiling, and is more consistent in that way. He’s more comfortable at this weight class and he’s also likely more durable. So he has a real chance to win on paper.
Conversely, I have to project Makhachev for wrestling success. There was nothing in the fight versus Belal that gave me any inkling that Maddalena can shut out Makhachev from takedowns. It was literally the fight prior where half-washed Gilbert Burns took Maddalena down at will.
Can Maddalena defend a takedown? Sure, he can defend some. But Makhachev is very likely to attempt 10-15 takedowns over five rounds, and I think he can land another 3-5 with upside for more.
There are some positions against Burns where Maddalena was stuck in a cradle, and Maddalena was able to scramble his way out. I don’t think he scrambles out of those positions against Makhachev, and honestly, I think Makhachev might submit him.
I’m not extremely confident Makhachev finishes the fight and the longer it goes on, the more striking exchanges Maddalena will get to change the momentum and make a difference. However, at a base level, Makhachev should be able to ground Maddalena several times and that’s enough for me to favor him outright.
This should be a fun fight and I’m really looking forward to the champ vs. champ dynamics. I’m not counting out Maddalena but I think the most likely scenario is Makhachev controls him fairly convincingly on the mat to get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, Makhachev is priced at 9.2k and is among the priorities for me on this slate.
You don’t necessarily have to view Makhachev as an outright must-play, considering the strength of this slate as a whole and the number of fights, including two championship matchups. Makhachev has won convincingly before and only scored 102, 100, 101. It’s possible he wins by early submission and puts up another score in the high 90s or low 100s.
At the same time, we’ve also seen him score 130, 113, 119, 107, 116. A score above 110 would certainly give Makhachev a good shot at being optimal, and that seems like the most likely outcome.
Given the pacing of Maddalena, I expect a decent amount of exchanges, and probably multiple takedowns. Makhachev does have finishing equity at +150 ITD, but you can argue a decision for him is the better method to score points.
So regardless of how it looks, I think Makhachev carries one of the best floors in a win on this slate, and a very solid ceiling as well. Pivoting away on occasion is very viable for ownership purposes but I’d aim for a moderate-heavy amount of exposure to Makhachev given the situation.
Maddalena is priced at 7k, and you can play him if you think he can win.
Of course he can, but his floor will be very low. He won’t outwrestle Makhachev, and he isn’t likely to land a lot of strikes. Even if he wins, I’m not sure he lands much more than 100 sig. strikes, and Makhachev has never even allowed 75 in a fight before.
Granted, if Maddalena wins, it could also come by knockout. He’s +240 to win ITD and that may honestly be the more likely outcome in a win.
As a cheap champion, with leverage against Makhachev, Maddalena will rate out as a standard secondary type target who you can mix in for upside. I’d consider him more of a low-end target myself given the matchup dynamics.
Personally, I doubt I’ll aim for much exposure to Maddalena. I’d probably rather chase other dogs with easier matchups, with a more limited portfolio than spread myself too thin getting significant exposure to all dogs. I don’t mind coming in near the field as a base strategy, but I’ll probably end up underweight myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Makhachev by D’Arce, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili
Fight Odds: Shevchenko -115, Zhang -101
Odds to end ITD: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Shevchenko 8.2k, Zhang 8k
Weight Class: 125
In our second champion vs. champion matchup, women’s #1 and #2 pound-for-pound fighters Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili will square off for the flyweight title this weekend.
Zhang has given up her strawweight belt to chase the flyweight queen Shevchenko, who is arguably the women’s MMA greatest of all-time at this point, and is coming off a competitive decision over Manon Fiorot in May. Zhang herself essentially wiped out the strawweight division and is coming off five consecutive wins, most recently beating Tatiana Suarez in February.
I think highly of both fighters, though I’ve probably been lower on Zhang than the public, and potentially higher on Shevchenko. I actually picked Fiorot to beat Shevchenko in her last matchup (with no confidence) due to some of the longstanding concerns I’ve had with Shevchenko.
The biggest concern has always been volume. Coming from a muay-thai background, Shevchenko is an elite striker technically and should carry an advantage above just about anyone in the division. She’s never been a high-volume striker though, and only lands 3.14 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.06 with a 63 percent defensive rate.
Shevchenko likes slower paced fights where she can control exchanges. She’s literally never landed 100 sig. strikes in a fight, so on paper, she can fight into competitive rounds more often than I’d like.
What has completely saved her is that she has also turned into one of the better wrestlers in the division, and averages 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. She has solid control from the top, and can land lots of ground-and-pound or occasionally threaten with submissions.
Shevechenko has destroyed many opponents this way, and in combination with her technical striking, she’s tough to beat.
My concern in that last matchup was that Fiorot defends takedowns very well, and throws more volume on paper. Also, Shevchenko is now 37 years old and has had some hiccups like losing to Alexa Grasso randomly which have me concerned as well.
Against Fiorot, Shevchenko busted her up early at distance and won the first round cleanly. She then kind of allowed Fiorot to come back, and allowed her to bully in the clinch where Shevchenko wasn’t able to land much offense. Shevchenko knocked her down in the fourth round though and ultimately was awarded a competitive decision win.
Honestly, Shevchenko looked “good” at times but my ultimate concern still kind of came to fruition in that she wasn’t producing enough offense, and didn’t land enough takedowns. The fight was very competitive overall and she could have lost.
I still view Shevchenko as one of the best in the sport with multiple paths to winning, but she doesn’t always pull away in rounds when she’s not in top control.
Zhang Weili has been more of an action fighter, and lands 5.15 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.77 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate.
She’s been in some high-volume wars with Jedrzejczyk and she has some sick knockouts as well. She can also wrestle and lands 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Zhang has just been a better athlete and more well-rounded than her opponents recently, who have not been able to keep up with her.
From a macro sense, I think Zhang can win this fight. She produces more offense in total than Shevchenko, and she throws strikes at a higher rate. She has pop in her hands, is fast, and she can wrestle.
Shevchenko tends to fight close and if Shevchenko is landing 15 strikes vs. the 14 strikes of Zhang, who knows how those rounds go. We’ve also seen Shevchenko randomly submitted so if Zhang were to get her back, I’d be worried.
However, I also feel Shevchenko is probably better everywhere. She’s definitely a better technical striker, and she’s better defensively. Despite Zhang throwing much more on paper, Shevchenko doesn’t really absorb strikes, and opponents are lucky to reach 80 strikes in one of her fights.
I think rounds could be competitive but I’d lean toward Shevchenko landing a bit cleaner. Either woman could hurt the other but I wouldn’t project a ton of damage there. Zhang has been KOd by Namajunas and dropped by Xiaonan, which is a bit concerning. Shevchenko was dropped by Grasso.
I also still don’t fully trust Zhang in wrestling exchanges. She defends at 74 percent and got past Suarez recently, but Suarez was dead gassed after round one where Suarez won it via wrestling and top control. Even Xiaonan took Zhang down three times, and she’s a bad wrestler.
Previously we saw Namajunas win with takedowns and control, and Shevchenko is probably among the best wrestlers Zhang will have faced.
I’m not certain Shevchenko forces wrestling exchanges or can hold Zhang down for long periods of time, but I do think she’s capable of landing takedowns here and I’d project her for a few.
Conversely, I’m unsure if Zhang can have wrestling success. If she attempts a lot, she can land some. If she can take the back, maybe she can threaten with a choke. Historically that’s not an easy task and I don’t consider Zhang a dominating offensive wrestler.
It’s possible these two neutralize each other but I’d say Zhang might have the better shot at one big moment, while Shevchenko is more likely to win multiple rounds with control.
Overall, I’m just not sure what Zhang can do here. That’s not to say she can’t win, and I think the fight will be close, but she isn’t going to easily land many strikes, and I doubt she can just dominate Shevchenko on the mat. I think Shevchenko has much more pullaway upside where she can outclass Zhang on the feet and take her down as well.
It’s fair to line this fight competitively as Zhang is really good, despite the step up in weight. I do view Shevchenko as the more talented fighter and her larger frame should help her, and I lean toward her winning a competitive but clean decision.
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On DraftKings, both sides will be extremely viable in a five-round contest and priced in the mid-range.
However, I don’t consider this fight a must. We’ve seen massive ceilings from Shevchenko at times, but also incredibly low floors from a championship fighter.
Those ceilings tend to come when she can dominate opponents on the mat. She scored 146 against Grasso recently, 160 against Cachoeira and she’s topped 130+ on other occasions. We’ve also seen her score 74 in a five-round win.
I don’t think Shevchenko is a guarantee to wrestle here. She may find her easiest path is actually to strike, and if she strikes, she’s honestly closer to a fade than a great target. She probably won’t even land 100 sig. strikes, so we could easily see an 80-90 point score with some extracurriculars. She’s also only +335 to win ITD.
At 8.2k, 90 points is still decent. On a 14-fight slate, with multiple championship fights, I would guess it is not optimal, and there are paths where she doesn’t even reach 90.
The flip side is that if she does wrestle, she’s a phenomenal target and someone I would want to prioritize. She can easily clear 100 points in a wrestling based win.
The reality is Shevchenko has taken down 17 of her 18 UFC opponents, and she will project for 2-3 takedowns landed with upside for more. By default, I think she’s a strong secondary target because of this and someone who I’d want exposure to.
It’s fine to pivot away from this fight on occasion, hoping Shevchenko wins a closer, striking based decision. But I also have to factor in her clear tournament winning ceiling.
I’ll probably default to targeting Shevchenko moderately as a salary saver who also has 100 point upside, but if you’re already on chalky constructions, this is one interesting pivot point.
Zhang at 8k is tough to analyze as well.
On paper it’s a terrible spot for her to produce offense, and she may even have less upside than Shevchenko. She will project for 70-80 strikes landed and maybe 1-2 takedowns, which means even in a decision, Zhang could score 70-80.
Unlike Shevchenko, I don’t think Zhang has 5-7 takedown upside with 15+ minutes of control. Though if she attempts a ton of takedowns, maybe she does? Zhang is also +335 to win ITD.
I could possibly see Zhang having one big moment where she capitalizes and finishes the fight. Otherwise, it surely seems like she’ll need a super close decision. I don’t want to rule her out because five round winners score well and she’d likely compete for the optimal in any kind of win.
But this just isn’t a great spot on paper for Zhang to see a ceiling. I lean toward her being a lower-end secondary target, who I’m fine to mix-in, but not someone I’d be excited to play at chalk.
It’s fine if you have a different opinion ultimately, but there’s plenty of win equity in this upper 7k range and I don’t mind targeting some of those fighters ahead of Zhang.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Shevchenko by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales
Fight Odds: Brady -138, Morales +118
Odds to end ITD: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Brady 8.5k, Morales 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential number one contender fight here between rising blue chip prospects Sean Brady and Michael Morales.
Brady is now 18-1 professionally, with his one loss coming by TKO to Belal Muhammad where he was unable to land takedowns and got boxed up badly.
Brady is very much a wrestler and grappler. He lands 3.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a skilled top position player as well. I consider his takedowns strong and his top game is good, with heavy top positioning and capable of passing and submitting opponents.
I originally did worry about Brady’s cardio in his early career and I still do have some concerns. However, I do think his cardio has looked stronger in recent years, especially against Gilbert Burns. I sneakily do think his recent performances against Edwards, Burns, and Gastelum were great matchups for him though. I still do think Brady will struggle against guys who have very strong defensive wrestling like Kamaru Usman and Shavkat Rakhmonov. However, Brady can just run over most of this division with his offensive wrestling alone.
As a striker, Brady is limited but competent. He can throw a good left hook and he is a competent boxer. However, I don’t think he can outstrike the top fighters of this division and Belal did sort of show that in their fight. His striking more so works when he can blend it with his wrestling. Overall, Brady is a solid, consistent fighter because his wrestling anchors his game.
Brady will be taking on Michael Morales. Morales is a great athlete. I think that is his greatest asset. He is explosive in all areas of the game and is competent in all areas. He is also only 26 years old and is likely to develop. I do think he has developed and polished up his game as well compared to his early UFC fights.
Morales is a decent striker. He is very raw though. He lands 5.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.31 in return. He only defends strikes at 53 percent. I do question his overall technical skills as a striker, and he can be hit. However, he is super athletic and has a ton of power which aids him tremendously. He is clearly very powerful and capable of knocking people dead at this level.
Morales is also a capable grappler. He landed four takedowns in his Contender Series fight, but has generally looked to strike since. I think he is capable of getting takedowns and landing GNP with his athleticism. He also defends takedowns at 89 percent and uses his athleticism to assist his defensive grappling. I actually do think his first layer TDD is quite strong and he does come from a wrestling background.
There was a defensive grappling sequence that Morales had against Adam Fugitt that was alarming. He was taken down and he kind of just played guard and I didn’t like what I saw. He eventually got up but it was just a bad look. Since that fight, Morales hadn’t been taken down until Gilbert Burns took him down in his last fight. Morales did work up quickly which was good to see.
It is going to be all about the defensive grappling of Morales which will decide a winner here against Brady. This fight is binary. If this fight stays standing, Brady may be able to compete a bit but I don’t think Brady will win a striking fight. Morales will likely just use his athleticism and power to knock Brady out or just win a pretty clear decision by landing the more explosive shots.
I am quite torn here. Originally, before tape, I was actually leaning Morales to the point where I wanted to bet him. Once I taped, I switched my pick to Brady which definitely says something. I do think Morales will stuff some takedowns here so Morales is live and I do worry about Brady a bit. If Morales just shows up super prepared with stellar takedown defense, he may just destroy Brady. I still do think that outcome is possible.
The reason I am picking Brady is just because I do think Brady will get Morales down at some point. The one time I saw Morales flat on his back, he didn’t look great and Brady has an insane top game, and may be able to really own Morales once they are grounded. I honestly do not know if Morales will get up if taken down. That just gives Brady so much upside. Brady may honestly just take Morales down, rinse him, submit him, and make this look easy.
Someone is going to be -500 here imo. I just think if I am being reasonable and thinking logically, it would be super optimistic to think Morales, who has shown some degree of defensive grappling issues before, to now be flawless vs the best grappler and wrestler that he has ever faced. So I think I just have to lean Brady.
This is a guessing game though. I don’t think Brady’s takedowns are unstoppable and Belal showed that. I also heavily believe Brady wouldn’t be able to outwrestle a couple of other guys in this division. So if Morales has improved as a defensive grappler, he can win this fight.
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On DraftKings, this is an intriguing mid-range fight and both fighters have shown fantasy upside.
Brady is going to rate out as the superior target at 8.5k, and he could be chalky coming off 140 and 164 point wins. Granted, both scores came in five-round fights, but we’ve also seen Brady score 108, 103, 103 and 104 in three-round fights.
Given the style matchup, it surely seems like Brady will exceed value once again if he wins. He needs takedowns, and probably multiple. With them, he could earn lots of control and potentially win ITD, though he’s only +245 ITD here.
This is tough. I don’t hate the idea of being lighter on Brady, simply hoping he cannot dominate on the mat. While that outcome is very realistic, this is a competitively lined fight for a reason and if Brady isn’t on top, he won’t be scoring a lot of points.
There are so many strong targets this week that Brady isn’t necessarily a must. He might just lose.
With that said, he’s a very solid secondary target on paper at 8.5k, with tournament winning upside. It’s very realistic to think he can score 90-100 in any kind of win, and he’d compete for the optimal lineup at that point. He’s not my favorite fighter on the card but he saves enough salary to mix in moderately within the mid-range.
Morales is priced at 7.7k and needs a knockout.
His path to the optimal is much more difficult because of that, and he’s not as much of a priority. If he gives up a couple of takedowns, his upside could be washed out completely.
The main points to consider are that we have seen Brady TKOd in his only pro loss, and obviously Morales is a beast on the feet. In a pure striking fight, he’d have a real shot to win ITD, and he’s also +245 ITD here.
Morales has also gone the distance with Max Griffin and Jake Matthews, so he’s not always going to kill opponents in wins. His floor isn’t high here.
Because it’s a semi-binary matchup and Morales should be leverage against Brady, he’s definitely in play. But he’s more a boom/bust target and more of a low-end secondary option for me given the tougher path he needs to hit.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Brady by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates
Fight Odds: Prates -200, Edwards +169
Odds to end ITD: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Prates 8.9k, Edwards 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
It’s been a hard fall for the former welterweight champion Leon Edwards, who will be searching for redemption this weekend against Carlos Prates.
Edwards has been completely wiped out in back-to-back matchups by Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady, and honestly, I am going to take a quick victory lap here. It’s super difficult to analyze Mixed Martial Arts, and it’s not necessarily the most enjoyable thing in the world to tell everyone that the current champion sucks and is wildly overrated.
Edwards still proved me wrong on more than one occasion, beating former pound-for-pound elite Kamaru Usman, and beating Colby Covington as well. Despite the wins, I still felt like it was fairly obvious Edwards’ style wasn’t sustainable and I thought both Usman and Covington could have beaten him with different approaches.
It was apparently obvious to Muhammad and Brady, who used those approaches, pressuring Edwards and wrestling him to death. Muhammad took him down nine times and outlanded him 68-47, and Brady took him down five times before subbing him in the fourth round.
Edwards has always been a solid technical fighter. He’s a good striker and a good wrestler. He doesn’t produce enough offense though, and he only lands 2.62 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.42. He lands 1.18 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 63 percent.
He needs these slow paced affairs where he can control exchanges, and pick apart guys from distance, or lay on top of them. When opponents pressure and produce offense, he cannot match it.
I think this is an interesting matchup on Saturday against Carlos Prates, who is a completely different style of opponent than the majority of Edwards’ recent affairs.
Prates is a distance boxer and has no interest in grappling. He lands 3.82 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.80 with a 48 percent defensive rate.
I’ve honestly been much lower on him than the public too and fortunately banked some profit betting Ian Machado Garry against him in their recent main event.
Prates more recently pulled off another devastating knockout over Geoff Neal, which is his fifth knockout in the UFC already. He’s a fantastic and creative finisher, and his striking is undoubtedly effective.
I’ve been lower on him A) because he has defensive grappling issues, and B) his pacing is weird.
Despite knocking guys out, he’s letting Trevin Giles and Radkte and Mangy strike competitively with him on the numbers. Garry outlanded him 126 to 63.
Prates has shown better defensive wrestling and scrambling than I thought, so he’s clearly improving there, but he still got taken down four times by Garry as well.
Regardless, I view Prates as a decent talent. He’s a very dangerous and effective striker. I just don’t love how he’s semi one-dimensional, and he can start slow, and his enjoyment of smoking packs of cigarettes honestly tilts me.
Prior to researching this matchup, I felt this was a good spot for Prates. He’s a more active striker than Edwards at distance, and Edwards has looked horrific in recent losses.
After taping… man I’m really not as sure. It’s extremely important to note that Edwards has just fought basically all of the best wrestlers in the division besides Makhachev (Usman, Covington, Muhammad and Brady), and now he’s going back to an opponent where Edwards actually holds the wrestling advantages.
So not only does Edwrds not have to worry about getting taken down here, he actually has a path to victory on the mat himself. We’ve seen him use it on many occasions and 2-4 takedowns are very much in play.
Additionally, Edwards has never been knocked out. He’s absorbing fewer strikes per minute than Prates, and his defense is better than Prates’ on paper. I still think Prates holds an advantage with his volume, but this feels much closer to the type of matchup where Edwards could get a slower paced distance affair, fight closely, and maybe swing a couple of rounds with wrestling.
Unless Prates knocks Edwards dead, I don’t see how he wins this fight super convincingly, and that’s a tough outcome to bet on. It is also hard to trust Edwards to do anything, to be fair.
This is also a three round fight. Edwards might need 1 takedown in two different rounds and that could be the fight.
I still think it’s fair to lean toward Prates here as the more active fighter in general, with his career trajectory heading up while Edwards’ is heading down. Prates is a more dangerous striker.
I really would not be surprised if Edwards beats him. He has a path to victory on the feet, kicking at distance and sniping on shots. He has a path to victory on the mat. Neither will come easily but this does project to be close over three rounds.
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On DraftKings, I’ve been burned by Prates so many times but I can’t play him here.
If he doesn’t get a first round KO, I don’t see how he’s optimal. He’s run incredibly hot to start his UFC career from a fantasy sense, with several knockouts in the final minute of RD 1, or later finishes where he’s getting multiple knockdowns.
Now he’s facing an opponent who doesn’t absorb a ton of strikes, and might control him. It’s a really thin window in my opinion, and that’s besides the fact that this is a huge slate with multiple championship fights.
I don’t think Prates will be ultra-popular as he’s only +150 to win ITD but the public is high on him generally and his box scores look good. At 8.9k he’s just too expensive for what he offers outside of the quick KO.
It’s a risk but I definitely think being light on Prates makes sense, and I hope he’s chalky.
Edwards is the preferred target at 7.3k and honestly may be a fine tournament target.
I don’t want to overinvest here as I don’t think Edwards is very good, and he doesn’t fight at a high pace. He might be able to wrestle to a win though, at a fairly low public ownership, and that would exceed value for his price tag.
I’m not a huge fan of the bottom tier this week, and Edwards is among the cheaper fighters where pulling off the upset wouldn’t really be a surprise for me. So in that sense, I think he’s a decent low-end secondary target.
His ceiling isn’t amazing on paper and he’s only +450 to win ITD, so I won’t be too aggressive here. But he’s semi-sneaky and cheap enough to warrant some action.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Prates by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Fight Odds: Saint Denis -180, Dariush +153
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Saint Denis 8.8k, Dariush 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Beneil Dariush is a long time UFC vet, rounding out his 12th year with the promotion. But with experience comes age as he’s 36 years old now, though he rebounded off back to back losses last time out with a good win over Renato Moicano – he’s 17-6-1 in the UFC and 23-6-1 as a pro. Benoit Saint Denis is in his 5th year on the active roster where he ascended the divisional ranks relatively quickly. He’s suffered a few setbacks but is now back on a 2-fight win streak and back in the top 10 – he’s 7-3 in the UFC and 15-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Dariush has always had underrated striking and trains out of Kings MMA under Master Rafael Cordeiro.
His metrics aren’t great but slightly above the divisional average, landing 3.8 SLpM at 49% and 5 DLpM at 43%. He’s also a southpaw who really likes that big straight left hand, rear body kick and has a solid clinch game.
He can be over aggressive at times and a bit reckless though which has worked to his benefit and detriment in scoring KO’s or being KO’d/hurt himself.
Only three of his 16 UFC come via KO/TKO but he also has eight knockdowns (four of which have come in his last six wins) and does hit hard.
He defends strikes at 57% but only eats 2.6 which isn’t bad statistically. If you actually watch his fights though, he’s very defensively liable on the feet at points as he can throw himself into the fire.
I’ve seen him eat bombs in a handful of fights, but he’s ultimately been KO’d in five of his six pro losses – in his defense, many of the KOs have been absolute nukes that would have floored most guys. But Dariush has still gotten the better of the exchanges in most of his fights resulting in his positive +1.2/minute distance differential.
Overall, Dariush isn’t the prettiest or cleanest striker in the world but is good on the feet – his durability is of obvious bigger concern at this point though.
Saint Denis is a grappler by base, but he’s shown to be a scrappy southpaw on the feet.
He’s not a technical savant by any means but has shown aggressive components, a good body kick and left hand. He lands 5 SLpM at 55% and 7 DLpM at 49% — very solid metrics. He’s only got four pro wins via KO/TKO, but his strikes do take an impact when they land.
However, he struggles defensively as when guys have thrown strikes on him, he gets hit clean pretty consistently eating 4.2 SApM at 42% and 7 DApM at 48%.
The main fight to hit on was his debut against Dos Santos where he ate 149 significant strikes, defending at only 43% and getting hurt multiple times. In his defense, that was about as tough of a debut as they come, and the guy showed a ton of heart and toughness.
But he did get briefly hurt in his fight with Miranda as well despite largely whooping the guy’s ass, and more recently got put down by Poirier when Poirier found his openings.
Overall, he’s capable on the feet but is more of a brawler and may struggle with more technical parties now fighting a higher level of competition.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys are at relative size parity so not much to report there. The southpaw vs southpaw nature of the matchup is interesting as both guys like to fire kicks and really commit to their shots. While I view Dariush as the superior striker on paper with better defense (on an aggregated basis), I simply don’t trust the chin of Dariush at all at this point. Despite dogging out the Moicano fight, him getting dropped there is really official confirmation that his chin is about gone considering Moicano hadn’t dropped anyone in his prior 18 UFC fights. Also, Dariush tends to oblige in bigger pocket exchanges when opponents push him into that type of fight which is also what I think BSD will look to do here. All that being said, if he can avoid getting put down and keep his cool (which I’m not super optimistic about), he is live to just outstrike BSD and potentially hurt him as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Dariush is a higher-level black belt and is a respectable wrestler to boot where his ground game has played a larger factor in his career success.
He grinded out Moises (another high-level Black Belt), got some good ground time on Dober and subbed him, ran Camacho on the ground, back-packed Klose for the entirety of the 1st round, has now out-wrestled CDF twice to decision wins (another high-level Black Belt) and drudged Tony Ferguson on the mat. He also outwrestled Jim Miller back in the day and subbed Tony Martin who is also a black belt.
He’s also coming off outgrappling Moicano last time out which was impressive.
Throughout his career, the only guy to really have any grappling success on him was Chiesa back in 2016 where he made a small mistake and got submitted.
But even in Dariush’s fight against Gamrot who’s a good wrestler and fellow black belt, Dariush stuffed 15 of 19 shots and was only controlled for two minutes – pretty impressive.
Statistically, he lands 2.1 TDs per 15 minutes at 38%, stuffs at 82% and is in control time positions 82% of the time his fights are spent grappling.
Overall, despite his age, skill wise, Dariush is a top five ground fighter in this division and it’s going to take an elite talent to best him on the floor.
Saint-Denis is a black belt in judo and brown belt in BJJ.
The majority of his work comes on the ground as he’s a respectable wrestler with a good top game and will hunt submissions. 11 of his 15 pro wins have come via sub and by five different methods so he’s been sound when fights hit the floor – he also finished Miranda off with GNP and Moises as well.
In comparison to being some “elite tactician”, he has a solid grinding element within his game where he also just won’t pressing forward. However, I’ve seen guys spin into his guard on two different occasions and he’s been mounted more than once
In totality, his success is largely predicated on being in top positions – I still don’t like his willingness to go for guillotines and kimuras when guys are looking to take him down – he has dropped minutes being wrestled before so it’s not as if it’s complete one-way traffic for BSD when fights hit the floor. But he has worked out of disadvantageous positions on multiple occasions so he’s definitely not a guy that’s going to concede from his back either.
Him out-grappling a guy the caliber of Moises credentials though needs to be given healthy respect.
Despite getting stuck in four guillotines by Poirier, he fended them off and was able to take the back twice racking up nearly five minutes of control in the fight which lasted 7.5 minutes.
Moicano recently beat him up on the floor though where he got battered in round one.
Overall, BSD has that grind in him and is dangerous on the floor but not invincible with his own defensive issues.
How it plays out: Both guys are pretty quality ground fighters but similar to the striking, I would say that Dariush is the better holistic ground fighter on paper. However, I think both guys will have difficulty holding each other down from conventional positions as I respect the scrambling ability of both. I think it would more so come down to a race to more dominant positions and who can win the transitional war (barring damage/club-sub types of initiated sequences).
Awesome fight but also a pretty weird one to analyze given everything ran through above. As noted, I actually think Dariush is the better fighter on paper but it’s also one of these wonky situations where I don’t think the better fighter wins. Both guys are just at different points in their careers; BSD is seven years younger than Dariush who I view as the tougher/more durable guy with more finishing upside. I can very realistically see Dariush looking decent and then just getting iced or broken – that’s more so what I’m thinking happens.
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On DraftKings, oh man, this slate is just so tough because no matter what route you go, you are fading some really strong targets.
We’ve historically considered Saint Denis one of the best fantasy assets in the sport, and he continues to smash in wins, most recently as a dog against Mauricio Ruffy.
Saint Denis has scored 104, 121, 108, 149, 114, 135 and 105 in his wins on DK which is absolutely elite. He pressures relentlessly, can grapple relentlessly and he has power in his hands. He makes for an incredible target every time.
Now he’s facing Dariush who has a lot of wear and tear on his body, and has been knocked down three times in a row, being brutally knocked out twice. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Saint Denis smash again.
However, there’s no doubt in my mind Dariush is a better fighter. He’s a better grappler and he’s a better striker. He’s beaten and faced much better competition than Saint Denis as well.
It’s not even a defensive issue. Dariush absorbs 2.61 sig. strikes per minute and defends at 57 percent. He defends takedowns at 82 percent. Saint Denis absorbs 4.19 sig. strikes per minute at a 42 percent defensive rate which is horrific. He defends takedowns at 70 percent.
Dariush is basically better everywhere. He’s not as aggressive and won’t carry as high of a real life ceiling as Saint Denis, but there’s nowhere in this fight where I think Saint Denis is easily winning.
Dariush has one of my favorite defensive grappling performances of all-time against Gamrot in 2022. He’s highly intelligent and a skilled BJJ black belt. I can’t just default to Saint Denis running through him on the mat.
Dariush is very clearly the more technical and defensively sound striker too. The only issue is that Dariush gets badly hurt, a lot. So none of this might matter. Saint Denis might just eat a few shots and land one and put Dariush out cold.
It makes analyzing the fight tough either way.
On paper, Saint Denis is a fantastic target as always at 8.8k and you can play him moderately or heavily if you want. He’s -120 to win ITD and if he does win, I think it probably comes by early knockout.
I’d like some exposure here of course, but assuming he’s chalky, there’s just no way I can match it. I have to lean more toward the matchup analysis which tells me Saint Denis will struggle in all areas and his ceiling is highly dependent on hurting Dariush which just comes with a ton of variance.
It’s not a fun situation to be in and it could go very poorly but I’ll have no choice but to be underweight on Saint Denis this week.
Dariush at 7.4k feels like a decent target, especially for the price and leverage.
I’m honestly not sold on his ceiling. He may not want to wrestle, he’ll be pressured, and a striking based decision won’t score incredibly well. He’s not a lock to win by knockout.
At the same time, Saint Denis has been mostly murdered in his losses too. Dariush could hurt him. Dariush also just outgrappled Moicano who beat the living crap out of Saint Denis on the mat.
If Dariush wrestles, he could potentially have a lot of success. He’s +310 to win ITD which is OK.
If Dariush was 7.8k I’d probably feel differently but at 7.4k, I think I have to play him. He’s too cheap, he has real win equity, and he’s a better fighter on paper than Saint Denis, in an environment (Saint Denis fights) that has produced a great score for the winner essentially every time.
You don’t have to go crazy with exposure here but I like Dariush a fair amount at his price tag this week and I’ll be willing to take some risks given the situation. This is also just a strong fight to target on the whole and I think there’s a pretty solid chance the winner scores well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dariush by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira
Fight Odds: Nickal -234, Vieira +196
Odds to end ITD:
DraftKings Salaries: Nickal 9.1k, Vieira 7.1k
Weight Class: 185
One of many fascinating fights on this slate, ace submission grappler Rodolfo Vieira will take on top wrestling prospect Bo Nickal.
Vieira has gone through a solid transformation over the years, and I now consider him a very respectable mixed martial artist. Of course he entered the UFC as a submission grappling phenom, and still carries some of the best submission chops in the sport today.
But he wasn’t necessarily a “fighter”. He talked about being uncomfortable in the Octagon, and we saw him death gas early in his career against Anthony Hernandez, which in hindsight isn’t a poor loss at all. Vieira was very much reliant on top control and an early submission to get his hand raised.
In years since, he’s developed as a boxer and is now comfortable on the feet. He’s coming off a solid win over Tresean Gore that primarily took place on the feet, and nearly beat Andre Petroski in a striking contest before that as well.
Vieira isn’t some devastating puncher, but it’s simply another path to victory for him, and a place he is able to compete for a period of time if his grappling isn’t successful. He lands 3.77 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.12 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate, but we have seen him land 80-90 sig. strikes a couple of times in three rounds, which is solid volume.
I still prefer to target him in matchups where he has a clear grappling advantage. He’s not a great wrestler, but he still averages 3.09 takedowns per 15 minutes. On top, he’s an elite passer, back taker and finisher, and he’s earned five of his six UFC wins by submission.
Next he’ll take on Bo Nickal, who is coming off his first professional loss to Reiner de Ridder in May.
I was burned pretty badly by that loss as I don’t consider de Ridder a super high level fighter, and fortunately was paid back for it recently when RDR lost to Brendan Allen. Regardless, Nickal showed some inexperience in that fight, jumping guillotine and allowing RDR to control him from top position.
And then in round two, RDR made Nickal uncomfortable in the clinch with strikes, hurt him to the body and Nickal basically just quit.
It certainly gives me pause moving forward. Nickal is one of the best collegiate wrestlers of all-time and one of the best wrestlers in mixed martial arts today. He will always carry a high ceiling and could plausibly be a future champion.
But it’s hard to justify the hype now considering his recent loss. I don’t have much faith in him at distance when he faces adversity. His BJJ and scrambling is fine but if RDR can beat him there, others can too. I mostly just worry that Nickal will only look good when he’s dominant.
Most of his fights have been dominant though. He earned two one-minute subs on DWCS, submitted Pickett in the first round in his UFC debut, and then knocked out Woodburn in 38 seconds.
He also has a solid grappling win over Cody Brundage, and the decision over Paul Craig where he tested his standup for three rounds and came away looking solid. Craig didn’t provide much adversity though.
Ultimately, I think this upcoming matchup is a high-variance one because I don’t fully know what to expect from Nickal.
I’m putting his recent loss to the side but from a matchup sense, what is he going to do? I thought he may choose to strike against Craig given Craig’s ground specialty, and we get another grappling specialist here in Vieira.
You could argue may have an easier time striking with Vieira than grappling with him. You can also argue Vieira has proven more as a striker, and a pure boxing match might even favor Vieira over three rounds.
Vieira has also never been on his back, essentially, and he’s never given up a takedown in the UFC. Almost nobody has tried. I would bet Nickal can take him down without much difficulty if he wants too though, and Vieira may just accept it. Will Nickal be able to smash Vieira from top position though? I kind of doubt it.
Grappling can be difficult to call sometimes though because Vieira would surely threaten Nickal early from the bottom. Nickal won’t submit him unless Vieira is gassed. But if Nickal can simply avoid the subs, he could potentially beat Vieira up with ground-and-pound, and he can probably dominate control. It could honestly be a path to victory or a finish for Nickal.
I feel somewhat confident that Vieira can’t land takedowns with ease though, and that’s the trouble in backing him in this spot. Nickal should be able to defend takedowns if he wants to, and in theory that kills off a major path to victory for Vieira.
Because of it, I have to go with Nickal here. He is the more likely fighter to dictate where the fight takes place, and that’s important. I don’t think he wins this fight easily in any area of the game, but if Vieira isn’t on top of him, Vieira’s game is still quite limited.
My guess is we’ll see a mix of all – Nickal will strike early and it will probably be competitive. He may choose to land a takedown and test himself. I sort of think this fight extends as both guys will be tough to finish, and the fight as a whole is -135 to go Over 2.5 rounds.
There’s a lot of variance in this matchup and many different versions of how it could play out, but I do think Nickal gets his hand raised more often than not.
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On DraftKings, I’m pretty hesitant to back Nickal again at 9.1k, especially after being burned badly by him in his last fight.
The premise heading into that last bout was that typically, we see Nickal as a huge favorite, with huge ownership. We weren’t getting that against RDR but it wasn’t necessarily an indicator that Nickal lacks upside in a win.
In theory, he can still take down anyone multiple times and pound them out, and therefore, he has among the better ceilings on the slate. The likelihood that he wins in a dominant manner isn’t as high as he takes steps up in competition though.
Against Vieira, it’s really the same puzzle. Nickal is only 9.1k and he won’t be chalk coming off that loss, with a lot of other big names surrounding him in price. He still carries 110+ point upside on DK and is arguably a strong tournament play because of it.
It’s just tough to trust him now. He’s only +205 to win ITD and I’m really not even sure if he wants to wrestle with any urgency. If he chooses to strike early, the upside could be killed off quickly. I don’t think I can prioritize him because of this.
Ultimately I view Nickal as a secondary upside target. There’s clearly risk here, even in him losing. I prefer making bigger investments elsewhere. But given a lower public ownership than what’s typical, I do still think Nickal is a solid pivot play where a victory for him can still flash 110+ at any time.
Vieira at 7.1k is viable but he doesn’t rate out well.
It all comes down to the fact that he won’t project for takedowns here. Maybe one is possible. Maybe he can scramble to the top and win by submission.
At a base level, I’d be hoping he can win a striking based decision, or possibly hurt Nickal, which isn’t the best type of outcome on DraftKings. He’s only +310 to win ITD as well which is limiting.
I do think Vieira can win the fight, and he’s a viable low-end secondary target because of it. Nickal might just not be fully ready for this kind of matchup as he was not ready in his last one.
I still don’t see elite upside from Vieira on paper so I lean against playing a lot of him, and will use him as an occasional mix-in when I need salary relief.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nickal by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Fight Odds: Rodrigues -175, Kopylov +149
Odds to end ITD: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Rodrigues 8.6k, Kopylov 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really entertaining scrap here between Gregory Rodrigues and Roman Kopylov.
Rodrigues is an interesting fighter. I think he is quite skilled and well-rounded. He will be a tough out for a lot of middleweights. However, some of his characteristics like his durability and cardio scare me.
Rodrigues is a decent and mostly a powerful striker. He lands 5.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.04. He defends strikes at 50 percent. I don’t like how hittable Rodrigues is. However, he has pretty sharp punches and is actually very dangerous, and definitely has some power in the pocket. He can compete on the feet in this division.
He is really tough to deal with early and you saw that in his recent loss to Jared Cannonier. He came out hot against Cannonier and had a ton of early success. You also saw his power show up against Jack Hermansson. He knocked Hermansson dead.
I do worry about Rodrigues’ chin a bit though. Jordan Williams and Brunno Ferreira knocked him out and he has been wobbled or hurt on other occasions in the UFC. You saw Cannonier knock him out as well.
Rodrigues is a black belt in BJJ and a legit one. I consider him a skilled submission grappler. He lands 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of taking the back and threatening with back takes.
I do worry about Rodrigues’ cardio though. We have seen him slow down in several fights.
Still though, Rodrigues is good. He is a dangerous striker and a dangerous submission grappler. He is also extremely physical, and he is a threat to just about any middleweight. He is a serious problem for a round or two. He just has some durability and cardio issues.
Rodrigues will be taking on Roman Kopylov. Kopylov may be from Russia, but he is actually a striker. He fights out of the southpaw stance, has a good body kick, crisp boxing, and speed. I do think he disappointed in his recent loss against Paulo Costa. I really thought he would beat Costa and he didn’t only lose, but he got dominated and was outlanded 99-48 in significant strikes.
Kopylov lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.08 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. He is a solid striker and he has knockout power. I do think he is better than what he showed against Costa.
The issue with Kopylov is his grappling. He was beaten on the mat by Karl Roberson and Albert Duraev. He actually has good first layer takedown defense, and defends takedowns at a solid 87 percent.
The issue is that once Kopylov is actually grounded, he can allow dominant positions like mount and can’t really get up. He also gets tired if grappled badly as well. Good grapplers can definitely take advantage of him which we saw Hernandez do in Kopylov’s last loss. Kopylov is tough to actually get down though. I know Kopylov outwrestled Almeida, but I don’t really expect Kopylov to wrestle heavily in most matchups.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Rodrigues has a grappling path to victory. If Rodrigues gets on top of Kopylov, I honestly expect a finish. Rodrigues should dominate if he grounds Kopylov.
I do think Kopylov is hard to actually get down though and Rodrigues may choose to strike rather than wrestle. So there are ways for this to play out standing.
On the feet, I think this is competitive. I definitely think I favor Rodrigues early. He is so powerful and I think Kopylov will struggle with the size and power. However, I do think Kopylov is capable of settling in and landing his own shots and potentially winning. He also has enough power to test the chin of Rodrigues and the cardio to maybe take advantage of a tired Rodrigues.
Overall though, Rodrigues is a more well-rounded fighter with more paths to victory with more physicality. One takedown can change this fight drastically so Rodrigues is the pick.
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On DraftKings, this is one of many potential smash spots but it will carry a lot of variance.
For starters, while Rodrigues has a lot of upside on paper at 8.6k, he may literally choose not to wrestle. Even if he does attempt a few takedowns, it’s not a guarantee he finishes the fight once it hits the mat.
Additionally, he’s a legit knockout artist but Kopylov is a really skilled striker, and faster than Rodrigues with better durability. So I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Rodrigues hunted an early knockout and got himself hurt.
Rodrigues is +135 to win ITD so he will rate out well for 8.6k. He’s shown a pretty strong ceiling with occasional scores of 141, 108 and 107. We’ve also seen him win by TKO and score in the 90s multiple times.
Ugh, I have mixed feelings here. Sure, Rodrigues could win by KO but if he’s striking, I don’t really want to be invested in him. There are SO MANY great targets on this slate that we are looking for utter smashes, and I view a kickboxing match as a pretty competitive one where Rodrigues has a thin path to a ceiling.
If you told me Rodrigues would wrestle with urgency, I’d want to be in on him more.
Ultimately, Rodrigues falls into the secondary bucket for me. I don’t think he can be an outright priority as I don’t even know what game plan he will choose. It’s still not a sure path to a massive score as he has literally zero submission wins in the UFC, and this is a slate where we will see some huge scores. I wouldn’t mind being underweight on Rodrigues if he projected to be popular though it’d be a little bit of a risk.
He still rates out well and carries upside, and mixing him in near the field percentage is the safest way to play it.
Kopylov is priced at 7.6k and I’d consider him a semi-sneaky underdog.
I don’t think he’ll be popular coming off his ugly loss to Paulo Costa, but it’s worth noting Costa is very durable. Rodrigues has chin issues, and he’s been knocked out cold a few times.
I definitely think Kopylov can KO Rodrigues. Will he? Probably not. I am picking Rodrigues to win, but if Rodrigues is striking, Kopylov is absolutely live.
Kopylov is actually +175 to win ITD which is pretty strong for this price tag, and maybe that will draw some attention. Kopylov has actually topped 100 points in back-to-back wins which entered round three, so that’s a positive too.
I do consider Kopylov fairly boom or bust. I think it’s a somewhat tough matchup. He’s at a clear grappling disadvantage. He’s not a real priority for me and I don’t have super high expectations here.
But if this fight plays out 100 times, Kopylov is definitely winning a handful of times by knockout. Assuming he’s not chalk and probably sub 20 percent owned, I don’t mind him as a pivot play within this 7k range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodrigues by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Erin Blanchfield vs. Tracy Cortez
Fight Odds: Blanchfield -252, Cortez +210
Odds to end ITD: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Blanchfield 9k, Cortez 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a rematch here between Erin Blanchfield and Tracy Cortez.
These two fought back in 2019 in Invicta and Cortez actually won a split decision in a very close fight. I actually do think Blanchfield deserved the decision but it was close.
Since then, both girls have had a successful ufc career and both have improved dramatically. I am not going to put a ton of stock in that first matchup as it was a long time ago and you can just tell both girls have improved, especially Blanchfield.
Blanchfield is a solid fighter. She is best as a grappler and is a legit one. She is a BJJ black belt and has legitimate accomplishments as a submission grappler.
Blanchfield isn’t the best wrestler but she is tenacious. She lands 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. Once on top, she is very good. She can pass, threaten with submissions, and pour it on with GNP. I like her top game and I consider it strong. Blanchfield also defends takedowns at 80 percent and I consider her get up game strong.
Blanchfield isn’t the best technical striker but she is tough with tremendous cardio and volume. She lands 5.24 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.21 in return. She mostly just relies on her pace and toughness and can pull away in striking fights down the stretch. Her defense isn’t great and she can get out slicked on the feet but her striking is serviceable.
Blanchfield will be taking on Tracy Cortez. Cortez is now 7-1 in the UFC with her one loss coming to Rose Namajunas. She is mostly a wrestler and a pretty decent one.
Cortez lands 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 5 takedowns per fight. I consider her takedowns decent and she has takedown diversity as well. She can shoot doubles, hit inside trips, etc. She also chains takedowns together well and can hold people down.
I don’t think Cortez is all that dangerous on the mat though. She has no submissions in the UFC and couldn’t even finish Agapova on the mat. She moreso lays in guard and continues to ground opponents.
I do think Cortez has decent takedown defense and get-ups. She defends takedowns at 62 percent and generally likes to give up her back and scramble up. If opponents don’t pop in body triangles she usually works up well. Rose did have some top time success though and landed 5 takedowns on her. Cortez did shut down the grappling game of Jasmine though which was good.
I think Cortez’s striking has improved. She lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.84 in return. Those ratios are fine but it is mostly because she is on top in dominant positions. On the feet, Cortez moreso looks to limit engagements. She isn’t terrible on the feet but she isn’t particularly dangerous and I question her ability to win fights if she can’t find top position. I still do think she has some decent hands at times though, and she is somewhat technical and can land and get out of range.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is very competitive. On the feet, I think Cortez is more technical but I think Blanchfield has improved, and has more volume and aggression. I really just expect the striking to be very competitive and back and forth with a mild lean towards Blanchfield on aggression.
I also think both of these women can land takedowns. However, I think Blanchfield is more likely to control Cortez than vice versa. Blanchfield is also more likely to get a good position on the mat which honestly is why I favor her.
This is close though. I honestly don’t think either dominates on the mat so it will probably be back and forth with maybe either girl landing a takedown or two and then a back and forth striking affair.
I can never really see Cortez running away with this though where I could see Blanchfield separating a bit more. So I will pick Blanchfield but I expect a tight 29-28 decision here.
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On DraftKings, this is a tough one because to start, I have to note that Blanchfield has been an absolute smash play for most of her UFC career.
She lands so many strikes in all positions, and she’s scored 126, 115, 94, 123, 97 and 80 in her three round wins. You can argue she has among the best upside of any fighter on the slate given her style.
However, I strongly prefer her in matchups where she can dominate on the mat, and this one doesn’t exactly rate out well in that area. It’s still possible, but Cortez is a decent wrestler, and we’ve seen Blanchfield struggle more to land takedowns as she’s taken steps up in competition.
At 9k, on a freaking stacked slate, it’s hard to prioritize Blanchfield in this matchup. She’s only +375 to win ITD and takedowns aren’t guaranteed.
I do think she carries one of the better floors on the slate in that she will produce enough offense to reach 80-90 points most likely and there’s upside for 100+. But I don’t necessarily see the easiest path to a pure dominant, smash performance. There are so many elite fighters priced above and below her that I just think she’ll be overlooked.
If anything, I consider Blanchfield an intriguing pivot. If Makhachev and Saint Denis and Prates, etc are all soaking up ownership, Blanchfield will probably be sub 20 percent owned. This isn’t my favorite matchup for her but with a lower ownership, you could argue she’s worth mixing in as a place to be different while banking on her historic ceiling.
I likely won’t end up with too much exposure here personally, but I do think Blanchfield is viable given her historic pacing.
Cortez is priced at 7.2k and my guess is she’ll be very low owned.
She rates out pretty well from a floor standpoint and will be a cash consideration or salary saver type in smaller fields. She’s already beaten Blanchfield once and she needs to produce offense here to win, so I could see her scoring well.
Cortez actually put up 98 points in her last decision and 80-90 is very viable in a win this week. In relation to the floor, this fight is -400 to go the distance so she feels safe to put up some points even in a loss.
However, we like Cortez more in situations where she can land some takedowns and control her opponents from the top, which is a difficult task against Blanchfield, and that’s why she’s a sizable dog. I don’t see much finishing equity at +800 ITD.
Additionally, there’s an overwhelming amount of win equity in the 8k-7.3k range, where any of those fighters could legitimately win, and I’m expecting some will. Cortez winning wouldn’t be a massive upset but I do feel like it’s a step down from the names above her.
So personally I would much rather pay up a little bit more for the win equity and finishing equity, and I think that’s where the field will go as well.
Cortez is a fine play on paper at her price and especially so for safety. She even has a touch of upside in her wrestling style. It’s not a very ideal matchup and I will use her more when I’m forced into this range and can’t pay up much more, as opposed to using her as any real priority.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blanchfield by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Ethyn Ewing
Fight Odds: NA
Odds to end ITD: NA
DraftKings Salaries: Wellmaker 8.4k, Ewing NA
Weight Class: 145
Well FML, just a few minutes after completing the fight content for this week, the UFC announced Cody Haddon was out of this bout and in steps Ethyn Ewing on three day’s notice.
Wellmaker has stormed into the UFC with back-to-back brutal KO wins against Kris Moutinho and Cameron Saaiman, and he’s getting a ton of hype because of it.
He entered the UFC undefeated with four wins by knockout and two by submission, and he also has an additional eight amateur fights on his record of which he won seven.
I didn’t classify Wellmaker as a blue chip prospect entering the promotion, but he’s a solid fighter who I do think can compete at the UFC level.
Wellmaker is primarily a striker, and his best assets thus far have been his power, and his ability to attack multiple levels. I don’t necessarily consider him an elite knockout threat, but perhaps I’m wrong there, as he has clearly put a few guys unconscious with his hands, and so his power does appear to be real in that way. He folded his Contender Series opponent in less than three minutes as well which was pretty impressive.
I honestly cared more that Wellmaker has shown a solid leg-kicking game. Power can come and go and it’s not the best attribute to rely on at the UFC level, but the addition of lower leg kicks creates a much more well-rounded attack and one that does carry real win equity alongside it.
In that DWCS fight, Wellmaker landed some brutal early leg kicks that clearly hurt his opponent and contributed to him finding the knockout punch shortly thereafter. I would absolutely love to see him continue to attack the legs in the UFC, and if he does, I will feel much more comfortable about his game overall.
In his last two wins, he only landed 1 and 5 leg strikes, but those came in very small time samples.
Outside of those two aspects, Wellmaker is just OK in my opinion. He doesn’t come from any real athletic background that I know of and was somewhat of a troubled youth who turned his life around while training MMA. He’s turned himself into a pretty solid striker who can switch stances, kick, throw a jab and land with some power. But I’m guessing he’s a little bit overrated as a devastating power threat, and I would guess he’ll have a bit more trouble hurting UFC-level strikers.
As a wrestler, Wellmaker is capable but nothing special. I’ve seen him land a few takedowns and they’ve all come from the body lock and trips. In that particular area he can land takedowns, and he can float on top and take the back. He’s only a blue belt in jiu-jitsu though and it shows. He’s capable but he won’t be easily taking down and submitting UFC-level competition.
I’ve barely seen any real defensive wrestling from Wellmaker but I do like that when he has been taken down, he pops right back up. He’s not going to immediately accept guard and that’s a positive for him. He can be clinched up though and held against the cage, and I think he’ll have some trouble against more physical opponents.
For now though, I think Wellmaker can hold his own against the bottom tier of the division from a wrestling perspective. I just don’t think he’ll have a ton of offensive wrestling success and he might be limited to playing a more defensive/neutralizing role. When he takes steps up in competition, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outclassed.
Overall, I like Wellmaker’s ability to do some damage on the feet, controlling striking exchanges and working leg kicks. Without damage though, I don’t think he’ll be pulling away in fights in this tough bantamweight division.
Ewing is 8-2 professionally at 27 years old, and he’s earned seven wins by knockout and one by decision officially although I’m pretty certain I just watched him submit Molina in LFX 11.
Ewing is primarily a striker, and primarily a boxer. He likes to press forward and back you into the cage, and he has solid boxing tools inside the pocket. I think that is where he is best, and he can attack multiple levels and do some damage.
Even at range, Ewing has shown solid tools like the jab and leg kicks. I am a much bigger fan of jabs and leg kicks than the average person because you can literally win a fight with those tools and nothing else. So yeah, I do like the fact that he throws them and he seems technically solid.
I don’t think Ewing has a lot of depth to his game. I’m sure he’s trained wrestling but I haven’t seen him pursue a wrestling attack and his defense looks mediocre at best. He is a purple belt in BJJ so he is at least trained in grappling to a degree.
He lost his first two professional fights, including one by decision and one by heel hook. I couldn’t watch the first one but I saw his heel hook loss, and I don’t take a whole lot away from it. His takedown defense didn’t look great there, but it was early on in his career.
He’s coming off a legit KO win six days ago over a decent prospect in Billy Brand, and again, I think he’s actually a pretty technical striker. His volume looks fine and his power looks fine, but it’s tough to stand out in these divisions.
At this point, I think Ewing is capable of winning striking rounds at the UFC level by being more technical. He will also carry some knockout equity. He’ll also likely be in some high-variance fights where he can get hurt though I haven’t seen him badly hurt yet.
I also think good wrestlers can probably just take him down and beat him. His submission win against Molina came when he defended a takedown and then just locked up a darce choke. I think his front headlock series is fine but otherwise wouldn’t bet on him being some dangerous submission grappler.
We still have a lot to learn about Ewing but he seems capable on the feet at least and I like the technical aspects of his boxing game.
As far as the matchup, I don’t know man, I guess I’m not that high on Wellmaker compared to the public. I had picked Haddon to win and I don’t think Ewing is out of this fight either.
Ewing just looks like the more technical striker to me outright, and he has tools that can allow him to win striking exchanges. If he can secure the pocket, he’s probably just better than Wellmaker. He could win exchanges there or hurt him. Even at distance it could be competitive.
The thing is, this could turn downhill quickly. Obviously the short notice aspect is an issue and it’s tough to assume Ewing can fight hard for three rounds. I also don’t think he has any real wrestling upside even though he’s a better BJJ belt than Wellmaker on paper.
Also, Wellmaker is probably a little bigger than him and a little longer. Maybe a little more athletic. Obviously Wellmaker hurting Ewing is very much on the table and probably the outcome I’ll be forced to pick. He might even be able to wrestle Ewing down though I’m unsure if he’ll try.
From a macro view though, what is Wellmaker just going to immediately dead Ewing with a counter shot? Would be a little surprised by that outcome. I think Ewing needs to pressure and get on the inside though because at distance he’ll be more vulnerable. Closing the distance could get him hurt but will also give him opportunities.
Wellmaker just hasn’t proven enough for me to be that confident in him but yeah I’ll have to pick him to win on the full camp. He probably finds a way to damage Ewing along the way and scores a KO, and it could come early. From a technical standpoint, I do think Ewing can compete, throw jabs and leg kicks to work his way in, and then maybe he has a shot on the inside to do some damage as well.
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On DraftKings, Wellmaker is now going to be among the chalk of the slate at 8.4k, as a near -500 favorite with an expected elite ITD line.
I was already projecting him to be semi-chalk given his two recent 100 point scores, but now he’s a massive value and one of the biggest overall favorites on the slate. He’ll be projected to win ITD early as well so there’s a clear path to a ceiling. I’m assuming he’ll be owned in the 40-50 percent range but perhaps even higher.
There are a couple of schools of thought here. On one hand, Wellmaker just rates out too well for his price tag, and therefore he can be prioritized in all formats. It would be perfectly acceptable to play him on the majority of your lineups.
Conversely, Wellmaker still needs an early KO. He doesn’t project to wrestle at high rate, nor land a million strikes. Even a mid-round KO may not be enough. Hell, even in one of his quick KO wins he scored 102 DK points, which I’m unsure is enough. Wellmaker has a super thin window to reach the optimal.
On a different slate, I’d feel forced into playing him. On this slate, we could see 12 100 point scores, and it may come down to a random few points here and there. Wellmaker also won’t carry an elite top-end ceiling compared to other fighters on the slate who grapple like Brady, Makhachev, Saint Denis etc.
Plus, this dude Ewing has never been KOd and he wants to strike. He’s fine technically. I still think there’s a decent chance he folds, but it’s not as if this is an easy fight for Wellmaker to smash on paper.
There’s no real right or wrong answer here. Having moderate exposure makes sense and he’ll rate out super well. He’ll be an easy cash game click. In larger fields with a larger portfolio, I’m very happy to pivot away from him at times and hope the fight extends into round two, especially given the ownership he carries.
You can also consider to play him based on your construction, meaning if you’re on Makhachev, Saint Denis, Shevchenko, Brady, etc, you don’t also need chalk Wellmaker, and that’d be a good spot to pivot. If you’re playing Camilo, Mariscal, and Blanchfield, Wellmaker is a much easier click in those types of lineups.
I never love these spots where we have to bank on quick KOs as there’s just so much variance in striking exchanges, but of course Wellmaker will rate out among the best PPD plays on the slate now, and he’s worth strong consideration in all formats.
Ewing should be priced down to 6.8k or so, and he’ll be a leverage dart throw.
I honestly like him more than the rest of that bottom tier, which includes everyone priced below JDM. He’s still only a dart throw, but he wants to box and he’s probably going to get to box. If he can box, he has some win equity and some knockout equity. It’s probably foolish to chase it too much though, and a striking based decision wouldn’t even score well.
But you’re getting insane leverage in a high-variance striking fight (to a degree), so if you want to punt on occasion, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Ewing. I wouldn’t have high hopes for him though outside of the first couple of minutes.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wellmaker by KO, RD 2 (Confidence = Medium-Low)
Kyle Daukaus vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Fight Odds: Daukuas -404, Meerschaert +322
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Daukaus 9.3k, Meerschaert 6.9k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun matchup here between Kyle Daukaus and Gerald Meerschaert.
Meerschaert is a goofy opportunistic fighter, that is the best way to describe him.
I don’t really trust him to win rounds by outstriking his opponents on the feet as he lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.49 in return. However, he is tough and willing to throw down. He has a good body kick and he can sometimes have success standing. The issue is his durability is really declining and I do think he has lost a burst in his athleticism as well.
I also don’t trust Meerschaert to win with top control grappling all that often. He does land 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is solid, but he only defends takedowns at 42 percent and is never really winning fights with top control. So I just don’t trust him to win rounds which is why I don’t like his process of winning fights.
Meerschaert is very opportunistic though. I wouldn’t consider him to be a very hard hitter, although he has hurt a couple of people on the feet in his UFC career. He is a pretty dangerous submission grappler and if he gets your back on the mat, he can absolutely submit UFC level fighters. He also has a good guillotine choke. I do really respect Meerschaert as a submission artist in general.
My issue with Meerschaert is that I don’t fully trust his process of getting fighters with good TDD to the mat. He can get put in really bad positions trying to scramble to get back takes. The guy will literally give up his back hoping he can reverse position and get a dominant grappling position. That might work on tired fighters or lower level guys, but against competent grapplers that is an awful idea.
Meerschaert is basically just a guy who I think can high roll some UFC level fighters with transitional and chaotic submissions. I don’t have much faith in him other than that.
Meerschaert will be taking on Kyle Daukaus who had an initial UFC run but lost to Eryk Anders back in 2022 and got cut. Since then, Daukaus has won four regional fights and returned to the UFC a few months back, and knocked out Michel Pereira in round 1. It was a great way to make a return.
Kyle Daukaus is actually a decent fighter, but I have concerns with him. He is well-rounded and doesn’t have too many holes. I do worry about his athleticism / physicality though and it will definitely limit him. He is skilled though.
Daukaus lands 3.25 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.93 in return. Daukaus has skilled boxing and sharp hands. However, he does this weird thing where he will land good strikes in stretches at distance and then automatically crash to the clinch. I don’t know why he doesn’t continue to throw his hands in those moments. It may be a comfort thing. Maybe he doesn’t like being hit and doesn’t want to participate in extended exchanges. Just go watch his fights and I think you will see what I am talking about. The fight vs Stoltzfus really highlights this.
I am also a bit worried about Daukaus’ durability. He was knocked out and hurt numerous times in his first UFC run. Those moments did generally come vs good competition though. I don’t know if he is a liability from a durability perspective or anything. However, I definitely do not consider it a strength of his.
Anyway, Daukaus likes to clinch up vs the cage and then separate and land short shots and dirty box along the fence. He kept doing this to Stoltzfus.
Daukaus also likes to land takedowns and use offensive grappling to land his offense. He lands 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a pretty good control game on top. He is a black belt in BJJ and had a lot of submissions on the regional scene. Daukaus has pretty good takedown defense as he defends takedowns at a solid 82 percent.
I overall just consider Daukaus a solid fighter who mostly just has physical and athletic limitations.
As far as this matchup goes, I just don’t trust Meerschaert much more at this point in his career.
On the feet, I mildly favor Daukaus and just think Meerschaert is more likely to get knocked out here. Daukaus has some sharp hands and he can honestly probably hurt Meerschaert. I do think Daukaus’ power may be getting a bit overrated going into this matchup because of knocking out Pereira. However, it doesn’t take much to hurt Meerschaert these days.
I also think Daukaus has better takedown defense. Meerschaert will likely struggle to land takedowns here and maintain top position while I do think Daukaus can land takedowns rather easily. So overall, Daukaus just has advantages here.
I still do not want to dismiss Meerschaert. He beat Edmen just a year ago who is a fine fighter, and since then he has lost three fights against good fighters and tough style matchups. Many have dismissed Meerschaert before and have been burned. So I do understand Meerschaert is still a potential threat. I do think Meerschaert has declined to a degree though so Daukaus is the pick.
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On DraftKings, Daukaus is priced up to 9.3k which is pretty limiting.
He’s coming off a great first-minute KO over Pereira which scored him 127 DK points, but I don’t take much away from that and it seems kind of random to me. Still, Meerschaert has durability issues and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another first round KO.
The issue is that without a quick KO, I don’t think Daukaus can contend for the optimal. Even with a first round KO I’m not sure he will score enough.
This is a stacked card, and not only do we have two elite options in Susurkaev and Makhachev priced right nearby, but then there’s half a dozen other fighters priced 8k and above with 100+ scoring potential, and that doesn’t even include the women’s championship fight.
So this just seems like a tough price point for Daukaus. If he scores 110 he’ll have a shot to be optimal but I honestly don’t know if that gets it done, and I can easily see him priced out. Scoring 100 points or less would basically give him no chance.
Ultimately, this is a situation where Daukaus rates out fine for upside, but I’m not very willing to play him at this price tag. I’m guessing he’ll be somewhat low owned too by default as others will want to prioritize the stars I mentioned.
Daukaus will fall more into the pivot category to me. He’s not a real contrarian target and he projects pretty well at -145 to win ITD. On another slate he could be the chalk. Susurkaev is -425 ITD and there are just so many strong plays for cheaper.
I don’t want to say “you can’t play” Daukaus because an early KO is very much on the table. I just also think he has a super thin window to reach a ceiling, where an extended fight wouldn’t be that surprising. And even if he hits a ceiling, it’s far from a certainty that he can stand out at this price point.
Pivoting onto Daukaus occasionally for ownership purposes makes sense with a larger portfolio.
Meerschaert at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
He has pulled off the upset many times in his career and Daukaus isn’t really a special talent. However, Meerschaert is just limited, and doesn’t have the greatest process. I don’t view this as an easy matchup for him to land takedowns and submit Daukaus, which is where I’d typically want to attack Meerschaert.
My guess is he will be very low owned though, and obviously he’s cheap. Daukaus has been knocked down a bunch of times before. Again, Meerschaert isn’t the biggest knockout threat, and he’s only +460 to win ITD.
I’d much rather pay up to the mid 7ks where I think there’s a lot of win equity, and that’s how I’ll be attacking the slate personally. Meerschaert falls more into the dart throw category and he’s not someone I’ll aim to have much exposure to this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Daukaus by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal
Fight Odds: Sabatini -123, Mariscal +105
Odds to end ITD: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Mariscal 8.3k, Sabatini 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Chepe Mariscal was a long time regional veteran who finally got the UFC call back in 2023 where he embraced the signing and has performed well since entering the promotion – he’s 5-0 in the UFC and 18-6 as a pro. Pat Sabatini bypassed the Contender Series back in 2021 after winning the CFFC title the year prior and put together a nice run since joining the promotion – he’s 7-2 in the UFC and 20-5 as a pro. To note, this will be a rematch from 2018 where Mariscal won via split decision.
The striking component:
Mariscal comes from a boxing/kickboxing background but hasn’t always shown to be the most technical party in the world.
Specifically, earlier on in his career, he pretty much just came forward and swung bombs with little regard for anything, trying to take people’s heads off.
It does appear that he’s reigned in a bit more from some of his regional fights.
However, he’s still shown the “old school” Mariscal as he’s one of those guys that when he hurts someone and smells blood in the water, he’s going to go nuts and try to get you out of there which he has done in his last 4-5 fights.
In the more reserved components of him, he’s not eating a ton of strikes but it’s when he’s gotten into brawls or when guys have unloaded on him, he’s gotten hurt – specifically in his fights with Brito and Garcia.
He got dropped early in the Garcia fight but the official stoppage in the 2nd round was BS as it was a standing TKO and he was fine. Mariscal did take the best shots of Peek though who hits hard and despite brawling there, he showed he was the better technical brawler and just out-worked Peek overall.
The technicality of Jenkins gave him some issues as he lost the overall distance exchanges and got his legs beat up a bit. The striking was pretty competitive with Charriere where Charriere was the cleaner guy in there, but Mariscal landed the bigger shots. He kicked the shit out of Damon Jackson – still not entirely sure how he didn’t finish there.
Most recently, he 2x’d Ramos on SS also hurting him there as well despite not finishing.
Overall, Mariscal’s striking approach may depend on the opponent but really thrives in more chaotic types of fights as a guy with traditionally good pacing, power and hardware when not facing huge hitters.
Sabatini is a wrestler/grappler by nature and a good one at that, as a result, we haven’t seen a ton of him in space.
From what we have, he’s usually a guy that’s all the way out or all the way in.
He likes to mix in kicks to his attacks and takes some angles on his hooks but he isn’t a “high output” guy or someone really extensively winning the standup.
I think he’s just tried to find a style to somewhat stay out of danger, get off on some of his own strikes which then help set up his TDAs.
Historically he’s not a power threat but he does have one KO and has hurt a few other guys.
In totality, he really hasn’t been tested on the feet much in extended exchanges as there’s such a heavy grappling component in all of his fights.
However, he did drop the 3rd to Connelly (hindsight, I think he just coasted the round because he knew he was up 2 already). But he got hurt early by Emmers, got dinged with a front kick from Jackson which led to him getting finished shortly after on the ground and more recently got blasted by Lopes.
Overall, Sabatini’s durability has come into question now on more than one occasion and I just haven’t seen much from him to suggest he’s going to cleanly win standing rounds at the UFC level.
How it plays out: I favor Mariscal on the feet here. Despite not being the most technical guy, he’s got that dog in him and I don’t feel Sabatini has the tools to keep him at bay (at least standing at distance). Coupled with him having a lot more finish upside standing. I’d assume Sabatini will look to engage in the clinch but Mariscal will also look to land damage from there as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Mariscal also comes from a Judo background and holds a black belt in the discipline.
The ground in his fights has been a bit all over the board. He outwrestled UFC fighter Yusuff Zalal back in the day and had some success against Garcia and even Mitchell.
We also saw him get the better of the wrestling against Peek but did struggle to control him per TD and lost position a handful of times as well. But he ultimately lost the ground against Mitchell, got run through by Gillespie and was extensively controlled by Soriano.
He does have a win over Pat Sabatini back in 2018 though despite conceding some control time and positions, he scrambled well and did enough damage to edge that fight out.
Mariscal has threatened submissions, but I don’t rate him as an offensive submission grappler. One thing I do feel convicted in saying is that his defensive grappling is good to have not only never been submitted in his career but more so contextually in terms of the guys he’s fought – he bested Damon Jackson on the ground as well.
At the end of the day, the guys that have beaten him on the floor are all current UFC fighters with wrestling and/or grappling backgrounds but Mariscal can go.
Sabatini’s a Daniel Gracie Black Belt and former DI wrestler at Rider University.
In that, the large majority of Sabatini fights end up on the ground.
From there, Sabatini really excels when he’s able to secure top position where he does a good job of passing/controlling and working to advance positions – he specifically has a smooth back transition, will attack arms and a nice top side guillotine.
As a pro, 13 of his 20 wins have come via submission.
Even in the scenarios where Sabatini isn’t able to secure TDs with ease, he’s a good grinder against the cage, staying active enough to win minutes there (Blackshear fight).
In all seven of his UFC wins to date, the ground has been what’s won him his fights – over 9 minutes of control against Connelly, heel hooked Emmers early (despite facing some early adversity, got hurt and worked out of back control quickly), grinded Lutz for the better part of 15 minutes accruing 11+ minutes of control time, landed 6 TDs on Laramie accruing 8 minutes of control, ragdolled Almeida on the mat submitting him, took the back of Pearce early finding the RNC and recently just grinded Brito out over 15 minutes.
Defensively, he’s actually been taken down in four of his nine UFC fights and has only stuffed at 50%.
But he’s a difficult guy to hold down for any extensive time frame as he’s looking to attack sweeps/subs or just get up.
Overall, I value Sabatini’s ground game as a higher-level black belt with a D1 wrestling pedigree – dangerous concoction. Coupled with him being a guy who can win in the scramble and has the cardio to go all three rounds.
How it plays out: This is where the fight favors Sabatini as the better pure wrestler and submission grappler. That said, Mariscal is a solid scrambler so I also think it may be more difficult for Sabatini to keep him down than other past opponents – more specifically from conventional positions. That said, Mariscal will give openings when he decides to scramble that could allow Sabatini to advance where he’s then in more trouble.
Solid fight between two guys I’ve always held in higher regard but for different reasons. I ultimately find myself leaning more towards the Mariscal side because I give him more finish equity and I’m not sold Sabatini’s going to have an easy time controlling him or submitting him despite the praise I’ve given towards Sabatini’s ground game.
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On DraftKings, we continue the trend with another matchup that has smash potential.
Primarily, Sabatini is a grappling dependent fighter and has largely dominated in his wins, putting up scores of 106, 115, 114, 106, 105, 90 and 82 in his wins. It’s fairly predictive as if he wins, it’s going to come with takedowns, control and potentially a finish.
In this matchup, Sabatini is priced at 8.3k and is very likely to exceed value in a win.
I am personally not as high on Sabatini in this matchup as I don’t think he will have an easy time dominating on the mat. He couldn’t do it against Mariscal the first time (granted long enough ago that it may not matter), and Mariscal has never been submitted in his career. Mariscal beat a more physical grappler in Damon Jackson and this is probably a wash (clear win) on the feet in favor of Mariscal.
So despite Sabatini always rating out well for upside, including in this matchup, I don’t think I’m going to be heavily invested in him. It’s honestly a big risk. If he wins, he probably surpasses 90 points and potentially 100 points.
I do also think it’s interesting that he’s only +425 to win ITD, which I guess is giving respect to Mariscal. Sabatini is a really good grappler though and if he gets dominant positions, he can find a sub.
I think I would default to using Sabatini as a secondary option here, despite not being high on him in this matchup. He’s just too dependent on grappling which gives him a strong enough ceiling in a win case, and he is still favored. I personally favor Mariscal and so I lean toward coming in lighter on Sabatini (taking a risk).
Mariscal is priced at 7.9k and has been hit or miss on DraftKings.
He’s actually performed better than I originally thought, with wins of 138 and 108 in decisions, but those did come with 5 and 4 takedowns. He also has decision wins of 86 and 84.
If Mariscal wins a decision here, I think he will bust. That’s probably the most likely outcome as well. This just isn’t a good spot for him to choose to wrestle offensively, and if he tries to, he could end up getting reversed and lose the fight.
However, I have major concerns about Sabatini’s durability. He’s been brutally knocked out in a minute in both of his UFC losses, and that almost happened a third time against Emmers where Emmers dove on him after hurting him, and got leg locked.
I actually think Mariscal can win by early KO here as well. Sabatini just offers very little on the feet and Mariscal is better, and more powerful. He’s actually +245 to win ITD which kind of surprises me that the market agrees.
This is a very boom/bust spot in my opinion, but I don’t think Mariscal will be too popular in a stacked range. I actually like him and am willing to take some chances on him for the early KO upside. It’s probably worth capping your exposure though because one takedown from Sabatini could extend the fight and kill off the upside. But if Sabatini cannot get this to the ground, he could be in trouble.
Another fun fight and a risk either way. I lean toward the dog here winning and potentially winning by KO. Hopefully he’s a bit sneaky.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mariscal by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Angela Hill vs. Fatima Kline
Fight Odds: Kline -492, Hill +382
Odds to end ITD: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Kline 9.5k, Hill 6.7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Angela Hill’s rounding out her 9th year on the roster at the not so ripe age of 40. But even in her older age, she’s made improvements since the earlier portions of her career and has shown to be a top 15/fringe top 15 type of talent – she’s 13-15 in the UFC and 18-15 as a pro. Fatima Kline was originally slated to fight on Contender Series back in 2024 but got the short notice call to make her UFC debut where she lost via decision to the surging Jasmine Jasudavicius up a weight class. But since going back down to strawweight, she’s put together two solid performances and finishes at that – she’s 8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Hill can be a tricky girl to fight standing as she likes to cut angles, switch stance and throw off beat shots.
Because of this, the majority of her wins have been volume-based decisions, but she does have a few finishes via TKO (one was a cut stoppage). In that, she doesn’t have pure power for the division but does throw with intent and has some pop on her punches. I.e. landed some big shots on Waterson, Lemos and even dropped Gadelha. She lands 5.4 SLpM at 50% with her distance numbers sitting at 6 DLpM at 44%.
Hill’s also shown to be an effective clinch striker given her muay thai background.
The issue with Hill is that she can also absorb strikes in volume, eating 4.9 SApM. But she does defend at 60% and 65% at distance which are actually pretty good numbers – she’s just faced higher numbers of volume additionally back her way.
So, her SApM isn’t an admirable number however, her output and pace has been able to keep her at a bare minimum competitive in many striking affairs. But Hill has also struggled with physicality in certain matchups – most notably Torres/Dern and points with Gadelha and Lemos.
Hill actually outlanded Ricci 112 to 101 but Ricci also outlanded her to the head 82 to 66 which played a factor in the decision – in addition to Ricci being the one coming forward for most of the fight. She edged Souza on the numbers 63-61 but started losing the exchanges in the back half of the fight.
Most recently, she hung on the number with Lucindo but ate the bigger shots over 15 minutes.
Overall, despite her age, Hill isn’t an easy out standing but her last three fights specifically have rung off alarm bells that her age is starting to catch up with her.
Kline’s a base grappler but we’ve also seen a healthy amount of her on the feet in her shorter pro career.
Her output isn’t anything crazy, but she’s shown respectable technicality as she likes to switch stances, control the center and operate in a more pressure kickboxing-based style.
She’s fought primary floor players which needs to be noted in relation to her stand up success, but I generally like what I’ve seen from her as there appears to be decent process within her striking game.
Because she’s been able to be in the driver’s seat for most of her exchanges, we haven’t had to see her really face overt amounts of volume, pressure or adversity which leaves some questions generally but especially at a UFC level.
However, she struck somewhat competitively with Jasmine in her debut when the fight was there, actually outlanding her 33 to 27 at distance.
We didn’t see much on the feet in her sophomore outing but she’s coming off outlanding Martinez 92-44 and scored a solid head kick KO in round three – Martinez isn’t a world beater but a respectable striker and she looked solid in that spot.
Overall, I still have some questions on Kline’s macro striking level as a base grappler coupled with sample but she’s definitely shown that she’s not a one dimensional fighter.
How it plays out: Off the top, Kline will realize a size advantage of 3” in both height and reach. It goes without saying that Hill will be a step up in competition for Kline from a striking perspective. If this fight was happening 2-3 years ago, I wouldn’t have an issue favoring Hill but with where she’s at right now, I’m not so sure – once again going back to her getting outlanded to the head by Ricci and fighting competitively with Souza. Regardless of that, Hill’s historical problem is that even when she’s at her best, her striking style struggles to separate. Nonetheless, barring Hill being completely washed (which might be the case), I’d anticipate competitive exchanges here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Hill’s takedown defense and grappling has historically been her undoing, even semi-recently to some extent (Gadelha won one round via wrestling, so did Waterson – both in which were SD fights).
She ultimately got grinded out by Jandiroba and got her ass whooped by Dern on the floor. However, Hill’s TDD has dramatically improved overall over the course of her career.
Even in the fights against Waterson and Gadelha, Waterson went 0-9 on TDs before getting the 10th and getting some grind time. Gadelha got one early in the first but that’s always to be expected from Gadelha who has a solid first round (went 1 for 4) overall in the fight.
She was then able to thwart the wrestling attack from Godinez which was impressive – granted, if Godinez shot a higher number of TDs, the fight could have played differently but Hill showed much better scrambling ability than I anticipated or as many others did as well when those TDs were shot. Her official number now sits at 74%, which is solid.
The issue is, when she is taken down (in the aggregate), girls have been able to rack up at least a couple minutes of top time – a lot more for Jandiroba, Dern and later on more recently for Lucindo.
Wrestling against was a factor in her dropping the 1st round against Gomes as well but Hill ultimately got the better of the wrestling throughout the fight. Ricci recently went 3/4 but the majority of control time given up was against the fence.
She’s also been submitted twice in the UFC, but you do have to go back a bit. Her not getting subbed by Jandiroba and Dern though is testament to her submission defense as both are high level black belts.
Offensively, we will see Hill go to it at times as well but it’s not a primary part of her game. Although, her last two wins over Pinheiro and Souza had a positive wrestling component for her.
Overall, I’d still say the ground is still more of a weakness for Hill as a base striker, but evolutions have definitely been made.
As noted, Kline comes from a grappling background having really just got into MMA within the last four years.
She received her BJJ black belt at just 21 years old and has been a primary training partner of top UFC flyweight Erin Blanchfield.
Despite her liking to stand for minutes in her fights, she always pursues grappling at the same time where she’s realized a lot of success.
I don’t think she’s special as a wrestler per say but definitely capable within double legs and the ability to chain to body lock positions to drag opponents down from there.
On the ground, she’s pretty consistent to pass and look to advance into dominant positions, primarily to the back. However, despite her grappling pedigree, only one of her eight pro wins have come via submission as girls have been able to either work up or out positions at times against her.
She’s more so broken girls down with pressure passing and GNP which is definitely a positive, but it also begs the question of how good she actually is as a submission grappler when she hasn’t been able to finish conventionally from some of the positions she’s been in.
Defensively, she’s been shot on and has generally shown good TDD with sprawls, kimura traps and overhooks.
She fought Gallardo a handful of fights back who comes from a wrestling background and was able to largely dominate the floor exchanges in that fight. Additionally, against Kuziutina who’s a base Judo girl who did take her down a few times but it resulted in Kline getting into more dominant positions.
But she got put through the meat grinder in her debut against Jasmine, getting taken 4 times on 6 attempts and was controlled for nearly 8 minutes to drop the decision – super tough debut though given short notice circumstance and Jasmine being one of the better female wrestlers in the UFC, also up at flyweight.
She conceded a few TDs against Dudakova but reversed and was able to win the overall exchanges eventually TKOing her the 2nd round.
Overall, Kline’s a quality grappler but we’ll see how it translates to continued at the UFC level against more capable opponents.
How it plays out: While referencing Hill improvements over the years, I give a clear advantage on the ground to Kline. I don’t see Kline having the “easiest” of times taking Hill down per say but when she gets her there, I think she can accrue minutes and do some solid work. That said, despite touting the ground game of Kline, I don’t think she’s going to have an easy time finishing Hill unless Hill’s checked out considering Jandiroba and Dern couldn’t finish her, who recently fought for the belt and are the two best grapplers in the division.
I’ve been an Angie Hill apologist over the years because she’s a throwback fighter who got to the game a little late, had to grow up in the UFC and has been fighting at the upper ranks of the division for many years. While skill for skill, Hill can make this an honest fight, I’ve just seen the decline in her last three and I talked about that specifically going into her last fight against Lucindo. She has “defied” the conventional age narrative over the years but she’ll be turning 41 in January and I just don’t think she has much time left in the sport. If she loses here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her put the gloves down in the cage which is more so what my opinion is.
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On DraftKings, Kline is priced up to 9.5k as one of the biggest favorites on the slate.
Again, we have a typical smash play on any other slate where Kline is -500 to win and has scored 93 and 117 in her last two wins. On this slate, I think she’ll be squeezed out and will only classify as a contrarian target.
That’s not to say you can’t prioritize her, but Susurkaev and Daukaus are very live for early finishes and priced nearby, and that doesn’t include the obvious targets like Makhachev and others below. We may not even need to or be able to pay up this far in pricing.
I view the matchup as a solid one for Kline though but only if she grapples. If she strikes, I want nothing to do with her on DK. If she grapples, she could theoretically dominate and win ITD, and score 100 points or more. She’s only +260 to win ITD though.
Kline is simply a contrarian target this week. She’s pretty safe and has some upside. I’d lean toward targeting the early finishers though and I probably won’t end up with much exposure here. If you’re already stacked on chalk elsewhere and need a place to be unique in the top end, Kline is at least worth considering for that aspect.
Hill is priced down to 6.7k and won’t rate out well.
Like Luke, I’ve been high on Hill for many years and have bet on her many times. She is definitely declining though, and this is a tough matchup. She’s a big dog, and she’s +1100 to win ITD.
In some sense, she rates out OK for floor as the fight is still -325 to go the distance. Hill could score fine in a loss for her price tag. She could also make the fight competitive in striking exchanges and even win rounds.
I think she’ll get taken down and held down though, and that will be it. I really have no interest in targeting her on this slate in this matchup, and I’d strongly prefer to pay up when possible.
Hill is still a decent fighter and this isn’t necessarily one-way traffic but she’s not a strong fantasy option on this slate, in this matchup, and could be faded with a smaller portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kline by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Eric McConico
Fight Odds: Susurkaev -1025, McConico +685
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Susurkaev 9.8k, McConico 6.4k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what looks to be a showcase fight here for Baisangur Susurkaev as he is a monster favorite against Eric McConico this weekend.
Susurkaev is a 24 year old Russian fighter who is 10-0 professionally. He famously fought on the Contender Series last August and won by first round knockout. He then took a fight later that weekend against Eric Nolan at UFC 319 on a card where his teammate Khamzat Chimaev won the championship against Dricus Du Plessis.
Susurkaev battled through some adversity in that Nolan fight and was hurt at one point but eventually got Nolan to the mat and submitted him.
Susurkaev is mostly a striker. He has some good speed, power, and athleticism. He can switch stances and has some nasty body kicks that he can also mix to the legs. He definitely has a lot of power too and is knockout capable at this level. Most of his wins have come by first or second round knockout.
Susurkaev can also wrestle offensively a bit. He can mix in takedowns and I think he has some ability offensively. I still question if he can have wrestling success against any decent fighters in the UFC though. His defensive wrestling looks competent but again he has fought poor fighters and I want to see more of it vs decent UFC fighters. There is definitely some sloppiness in some of his grappling sequences.
I think Susurkaev is a fine prospect in the sense that he is clearly a very dangerous guy and he is very athletic. I also think he will improve as well. I do think he can turn out to be a solid UFC fighter.
I still have concerns though. I have seen Susurkaev pushed vs the cage a bit and he is just kind of raw and underdeveloped. I also question his defensive striking against anyone decent. I also don’t know how his cardio will look vs anyone decent who can fight for a hard 15 minutes. My guess is he will suffer some losses but he does have some good aspects to his game. I just think he has some holes that need polishing and he will likely get exposed if he gets a big step up in competition.
Susurkaev will be taking on Eric McConico. McConico is an American fighter who is 10-3-1 professionally and he is 35 years old. His three losses have come by knockout.
McConico made his UFC debut against Ruziboev and was quickly knocked out. McConico then won a close decision against Cody Brundage in a back and forth fight where they struck a little and clinched a little.
McConico is kind of a generalist. He can strike a little bit and can put together some decent combinations. He can also clinch a little and grapple a little too. His defensive grappling is okay but he can be taken down. He will at least try to work up though.
I don’t think McConico is terrible but he just doesn’t thrive anywhere and isn’t good at all. He is also low volume as a striker at times too. I also really hate his durability and he has been knocked out a few times even on the regionals.
I just think McConico is a guy who will maybe have some competitive fights against the bottom tier of this division and that is about it. He won’t go anywhere in the UFC.
As far as this matchup goes, I just do not like McConico’s chin going up against Susurkaev. Susurkaev is dangerous and I really just think he is going to land something big at some point and knock McConico out. Susurkaev is just so much more talented than McConico.
I don’t think McConico is the worst fighter in the world and he does have some general skillsets that could test Susurkaev. McConico can strike and grapple a little bit and I do think it is possible he has moments of success. I seriously am skeptical of Susurkaev’s development. I could see McConico strike competitively in moments and maybe clinch Susurkaev and land some combinations off the break.
Other than that though, I just don’t have much faith in McConico in this matchup. McConico probably can’t land takedowns here and I doubt he can win on volume either. I think McConico’s best chance to win is by landing a random knockout or staying mildly competitive on the feet and mixing in the clinch which are narrow paths to victory. My guess is that McConico just gets overwhelmed on the feet at some point and finished.
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On DraftKings, Susurkaev is priced up to 9.8k but he may be worthy of that number considering he’s -1025 to win and -425 to win ITD.
I actually don’t love Susurkaev from a macro sense and I’ll give my personal quick analysis. Entering the UFC, I thought he seemed like a moderately dangerous range striker, with decent grappling, but I don’t see some top-end prospect personally.
Primarily, I don’t love his defense. He’s a bit flashy offensively and I think he’s open to be countered. He can get backed up and he’s not the highest volume striker either.
In his lone decision win, I thought he looked kind of bad after the first round. He gave up some pretty easy takedowns and I can’t exactly put my finger on it, but he’s just not giving enough effort. I’m not sure if it’s a cardio issue or that he feels so comfortable in there, given the level of competition across from him.
His pure takedown defense is OK and his grappling looks to be solid in general but I do think he can be roughed up by a more physical opponent. Perhaps that type of opponent will only exist at the upper levels of the division.
I would bet on Susurkaev having a lot of success when he can control exchanges. He can land hard shots at distance, and he’s shown some flashy finishing ability. I’m not sold he’s some elite round winner though, especially when fights extend, and I’d also like to see more of his pure wrestling before I crown him a real threat in the division.
In his debut, we saw some ups and some downs. He looked flashy and showboated a fair amount. He did some damage. He also got rocked at the end of the first round, and then had to revert to grappling in the second round which led to a pretty easy submission.
The UFC is giving him the bottom of the barrel in McConico though, who’s been rocked and KOd a number of times, and it surely seems like Susurkaev has finishing upside in that regard.
Susurkaev is -145 to win round one which is the best line on this slate, and that’s what we’re aiming for. He may even have some first-minute equity though I would never project that in.
The difficulty here is that Susurkaev just won in round two and scored 105 DK points. Is that enough at 9.8k? Probably not on this slate. So although Susurkaev has high-end upside and he seems quite likely to reach it, he’s not a must.
Simply put, unless Susurkaev wins in 60 seconds or less, his fate will probably be determined by the other fighters on this card. If we get a bunch of finishes in the 8k and lower 9k range, Susurkaev won’t be needed, even if he scores 110. But if you’re betting on any fighter to score 100-110 on this slate, Susurkaev would be among the first choices.
Ultimately, if you can pay up for Susurkaev, he’s probably worth it. He’s probably going to win ITD early and score well. He’s very safe and will be an even better target in smaller fields.
In larger fields, he’s less of a must as there are plenty of other cheaper options. Makhachev is arguably just as strong of a target for $600 less and it would be perfectly acceptable to start lineups there. Daukaus or Kline can work as a pivot.
I won’t mind if I end up with moderate exposure to Susurkaev and I will project him to be popular, but this slate is stacked, and building more well-rounded teams in the mid-range is where I lean from a priority standpoint.
McConico at 6.4k will likely be the lowest owned fighter this week and he’s fine to just cross out if you have a limited portfolio.
I don’t think Susurkaev is unbeatable though, and I particularly have concerns with him in extended fights. McConico actually rates out OK as someone who could test Susurkaev if the fight extends. And there’s enough random variance in MMA that McConico could possibly hurt Susurkaev.
Still, it’s not necessarily a good spot for McConico and he’s been too timid thus far. His grappling hasn’t looked great. There’s no clear path for him to score unless Susurkaev is very tired.
While I wouldn’t rule out something weird happening, I’m not high on McConico in this matchup and he’s only an extreme dart throw with leverage. He’s +685 to win and +750 to win ITD and unless you are max entering, he’s not worth much consideration.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Susurkaev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Matheus Camilo
Fight Odds: Camilo -160, Borshchev +137
Odds to end ITD: -228
DraftKings Salaries: Camilo 8.7k, Borshchev 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decently exciting fight here in the lightweight division between Matheus Camilo and Viacheslav Borshchev.
Camilo is a Brazilian fighter who is 9-3 professionally. He is 24 years old and this will be his second UFC fight after losing to Gabe Green in his UFC debut in a bizarre loss which I will go into more detail below. He won a high profile fight on Dana White’s “Looking for a Fight” series to book his ticket to the UFC.
So Camilo has fought in random regional promotions and his competition hasn’t been great. However, the fighter he fought on Lookin for a Fight was a good wrestler so it was a decent win.
Camilo is basically a striker. He actually reminds me of a lightweight version of Jean Matsumoto. Like Matsumoto he is short and compact and physical, and can get aggressive and does his best work when he is walking opponents down. He is a competent boxer and has power in his hands. He has some really nasty low kicks which he has crippled fighters with. He basically will attack with flurries with his hands and mix his low kicks in throughout. He can be pretty damaging and I do think he has some power.
Camilo can be low volume at times, but he generally will get aggressive at certain points in the fight. He has good shot selection and can work the body. He is also pretty fast.
Camilo is quite green and young though and I do question his quality of competition. His cardio is a bit of a concern too. I have seen him fight 15 minutes and he still fought fine in round three, but he did look labored to a degree.
I also don’t think Camilo’s durability has really been tested but he does look tough. He also doesn’t really have much other offense in his game. He doesn’t wrestle a ton although he looks competent on top. He still is probably limited to winning striking fights which is tough at lightweight. He can also be taken down, but he can work up and I do think his takedown defense is improving. Good grapplers can likely exploit him though.
I do think Camilo can win fights at this level with his striking. He is also young and will likely improve. I don’t think his skillset will get him super far in this division as it takes more than competent boxing to rise through the lightweight division. However, I do think he looks UFC level, and he can win some fights in the UFC and be in some fun action fights.
Camilo’s UFC debut was very strange against Gabe Green. First of all, Camilo actively wrestled which was something I had never really seen him do much. He landed a takedown and won round one very cleanly. Then Camilo landed a second takedown in round 2 and it looked like he was on his way to winning the fight. However, Camilo went for a triangle from top position, lost position and then proceeded to give up a soft RNC finish and lost.
It was really bizarre because I thought Camilo would prefer to strike. The finish was also bizarre too. It just seemed so easy for Green. Camilo literally just went for a lazy triangle, got passed, and then easily finished. It makes me question Camilo’s toughness, decision making, and cardio honestly. Maybe it was just a bit of randomness but I am going to flag that fight as I continue to gather more data on Camilo and evaluate him more.
Camilo will be taking on Viacheslav Borshchev. So Borshchev comes from a kickboxing background where he had an 18-2 record.
Borshchev has flashed his striking skills in the UFC as well. He lands 5.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.73 in return. Those metrics are skewed though as he was outlanded 62-2 in significant strikes against Chase Hooper which were generally strikes absorbed on the ground.
On the feet, Borshchev is solid. He has some good hands and kicks. He is diverse on the feet and also has power and has won by knockout in the UFC a couple of times. He was hurt in recent fights against Hooper and Sadykhov though so his durability is a bit of a concern. However, he can compete just fine on the feet in the UFC.
Borshchev’s weakness is his grappling. On the regionals, he was taken down and struggled at times. Furthermore, he was dominated on the mat by Marc Diakiese, Mike Davis, Chase Hooper, and Terrance McKinney. He is just not a great defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 42 percent.
I do think Borschev’s get-ups are decent, especially early though. I mean Borshchev working up is the reason that Diakiese had to land so many takedowns. Diakiese also attempted 18 takedowns in that fight which was absurd. I do think below-average grapplers in this division won’t be able to pull off what Diakiese did to Borshchev though as it is tough to attempt 18 takedowns in a fight and not gas out. Average and above-average grapplers will surely continue to expose Borshchev on the mat though.
I still think Borshchev will actually try to work up though and he did that in his recent competitive decision loss to Tom Nolan. Nolan actually went 1/8 on takedowns and couldn’t obtain much control time on Borshchev, and I do think him training at Team Alpha Male has probably improved his defensive grappling to a degree.
I also think it is good that Borshchev has generally just been good at surviving in fights. His only loss inside the distance was a late round two submission loss to Chase Hooper who is a very good submission grappler and round one to McKinney who is just a storm early in fights. He generally survives on the feet and on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I am kind of struggling because I don’t know what Camilo is going to try to do. Camilo may just strike where I would consider this extremely competitive. I like Borshchev’s volume and technicality a bit more. However, I like the explosiveness, youth, and likely durability edge that Camilo has. Either guy could win a striking fight here imo and there would be a ton of variance.
Camilo may wrestle honestly and I do think he could have some success. Borshchev has been exposed on the mat a lot and I do think Camilo could land a takedown and consolidate control or threaten with a submission. I probably will take Camilo to win with this additional path to victory.
I am still nervous for Camilo though. I don’t trust his cardio to grapple Borshchev easily for 15 minutes. Borshchev will try to get up and probably can successfully, which could labor Camilo. I still hate that Green fight where Camilo borderline strangely quit too. So I am nervous that Camilo starts off well and then gets resisted by Borshchev and the tides turn. I just don’t really know what to expect here. This is a hard fight to read.
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On DraftKings, this fight will probably be overlooked as it lacks the name value and historic scoring ceiling compared to the majority of other fights on the slate.
Camilo is priced up to 8.7k and looks to be a pure contrarian target.
He’s coming off the ugly loss, and I don’t think this is an easy matchup against a highly skilled kickboxer. I don’t even know what Camilo wants to do which makes him tough to rely on.
The upside is that he could score a finish. Borshchev can be hurt and can be taken down. Camilo is +140 to win ITD which is actually a pretty good line.
Camilo may honestly be unowned. I will project him in the low teens most likely, but there are just too many good place elsewhere that will soak up lots of ownership. If Camilo was 8.3k perhaps he’d be higher owned but I just don’t see how the public gets to him often.
Related to that, he’s not even that big of a favorite and he seems overpriced for 8.7k. He seems extremely boom or bust and dependent on an early finish. Even if he gets it, I’m really not sure if he’ll be optimal.
There are just too many risks here for me to roster Camilo often with a limited portfolio. Given his ITD line and ownership, he’ll actually rate out as a solid contrarian target and would be a decent mix-in with a larger portfolio. I’m still concerned about his top end ceiling in comparison to others.
Borshchev is priced down to 7.5k and is my preferred target given that number.
I wonder if he’ll be owned as he’s rating out as a value now, lined at only +137 to win in a spot where we want to save salary. He hasn’t smashed on DK recently though, and my guess is he’ll still fall into the low-mid teens for ownership.
I don’t think Borshchev is an elite play. He won’t wrestle and a striking based decision wouldn’t score that well. I like plenty of other dogs this week too.
Still, he is a price value, and he’s got a solid ITD line of +210 against an opponent who is kind of unknown still. I’m going to pick Borshchev to win outright as he’s more proven on the feet, though I’m not confident.
I don’t mind playing Borshchev as a secondary target this week. I do like some other dogs more for win cases and upside, but at 7.5k, Borshchev is a cheap fighter who can win, with a touch of upside in his style.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Borshchev by Decision (Confidence=Low)