UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (4/12/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
Fight Odds: Volkanovski -129, Lopes +112
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Volkanovski 8.2k, Lopes 8k
Weight Class: 145
Oh boy, here we go. With Ilia Topuria officially departed from the featherweight division, former champ and future Hall-Of-Famer Alexander Volkanovski will get another shot to reclaim his title against a top contender in Diego Lopes.
I have not been the highest on Diego Lopes up until this point, and I’ll be upfront and say I am very much hoping he loses this fight. There are many reasons why, but I suppose it’s not necessary to dive into them all.
What I can dive into is the skill set that Lopes brings to the table, which is ferocious early power, and top-level submission grappling. It’s led to a number of exciting early finishes, and I do think he can continue to win fights against strong competition, possibly including Volkanovski.
At the same time, pretending Lopes is some polished champion, even if he ends up holding the belt, just really bugs me. Let’s call it for what it is. Lopes is far more exciting than he is a great fighter, but being exciting has led to a title opportunity, even ahead of more deserving challengers including Movsar Evloev who beat him straight up.
Being exciting is also what got him called up to the UFC, despite getting outwrestled by Joanderson Brito on the Contender Series in his lone opportunity, a loss that looks worse and worse in hindsight. Being exciting is what got him a No. 1 contender shot against Brian Ortega, despite being somewhat embarrassed by Dan Ige on just a few hours notice.
And being exciting may very well win him the belt on Saturday – that, and the questionable chin of Volkanovski in 2025.
That’s really the only question that needs to be answered for me and probably the one that will dictate the winner and loser of this matchup. Can Volkanovski hold up to any power punches at this stage? Can he take any damage? My guess is that yes he can, but how much I am not sure. And there’s also a chance that he goes down with the first shot landed.
In totality, Volkanovksi is a far superior fighter to Lopes. It’s not really remotely close.
Volkanovski is a far more technical striker, and far more diverse. He manages range much better and his striking metrics are much better. He’s gone the distance with far better competition than Lopes and has far better cardio than Lopes.
Volkanovski is also a far better wrestler than Lopes, both offensively and defensively. Lopes is the better submission grappler though, probably by a wide margin, and he’s obviously got more power. Plus, he may be more durable. Those three things are in Lopes’ corner.
Over the long term, it’s just better to pick against early finishers because they are consistently overrated by the markets. It’s one of the primary edges you can gain in this sport over a long period of time. But that doesn’t mean early finishers can’t win early, and in certain circumstances, they may be valued appropriately depending on the level of power/durability compared to the opponent.
Again, it’s the only question that I really need to have answered.
I just don’t see what Lopes can do here over five rounds to win decisions at a high rate, other than land the occasional big shot to swing some rounds, or jump on the back and threaten submissions from bottom.
Volk is landing 6.16 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.44 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. Lopes lands 4.20 per minute while absorbing 4.11 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate.
Lopes’ best skill is his submission grappling where he is elite, but he cannot wrestle. He only lands 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes so over a 25-minute sample, we could possibly project him for one takedown. It’s just not ideal for a fighter who very much wants to be in top position.
Volkanovski can be taken down but he’s strong defensively at 70 percent, and I would bet on him defending the few takedown attempts Lopes might throw his way. Conversely, Lopes can’t really wrestle defensively and only defends at 52 percent. He’s so good on the bottom that he’s willing to lay there and give up minutes, which is why he lost to both Brito and Evloev.
Again, he could lock up a submission but Volkanovsk is tough to finish, and although Lopes “can” win by submission, he’s also failed to do so against nearly everyone who’s taken him down. He submitted Gavin Tucker impressively but couldn’t submit Brito, Evloev or Ige.
Volkanovski lands 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and can obviously take Lopes down. Whether he will want to probably depends on how the fight is going on the feet. It may not be worth it to test the grappling waters but if Volk is getting tagged, he’ll probably have to shoot. I could definitely see Lopes locking up an early submission but it’s not an overwhelmingly likely outcome, just as I can see Volk holding him down for 10+ minutes.
What is factual though is that Volkanovski is not in his best form. He’s spoken about a lot of mental challenges after recent losses. He’s taken some really devastating knockout shots in back-to-back fights. Typically this stuff gets worse and not better and we might just see him retire if he loses on Saturday.
That aspect alone is enough to give Lopes a real chance. I definitely think if this fight plays out 100 times, Lopes knocks him out a bunch of times early, and sometimes by submission. More than 50 times out of 100 though? I kind of doubt that.
And the longer the fight goes, the more I favor Volkanovski who is a superior round winner, and a more processed fighter with more paths to victory. I’m going to pick him to get through some early adversity and win a few rounds to take a decision.
But it’s a really hard fight to cap because Lopes is going to swing for the fences, and he can crack. Volkanovski looks vulnerable to power at this stage and he very well may not survive. We’ll see.
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On DraftKings, the fight is scheduled for five rounds and both fighters are priced in the mid-range with Volkanovski at 8.2k and Lopes at 8k respectively, so it makes for an easy matchup to target.
Lopes’ win condition is largely predicated on an early finish, in which he is sure to exceed value. There are ways for him to miss 100 points, as we’ve already seen him win in RD 1 and score 90 points, but that’s still enough at 8k to contend for the optimal.
In this matchup, I would expect a knockout to be the primary method of victory and with early strikes, he could clear 110 points in a finish. Lopes is +145 to win ITD which is pretty strong.
I am not a huge fan of his fighter profile and I don’t think this is a great matchup for him, but you should still probably play a bunch of Lopes anyway if you have a big enough portfolio. There’s simply too many unknowns and variance tied to his win condition that missing out on a 110 point score for personal reasons makes no sense.
If you lean more toward my side of thinking, you can still take a stand on Volkanovski without being severely underweight to the field on Lopes. I’m not even sure that’s what I will do but the point is, Lopes has a clear path to winning early and I think you should have moderate exposure to him because of it.
If you want to lean moderately in Lopes’ direction because you feel more confident in him than I do, that’s completely fine too. He probably will be more popular than Volkanovski straight up and should be among the highest owned fighters on the slate outright. He’s a great play (on paper).
Volkanovski at 8.2k has a bit more risk in that an extended striking fight doesn’t score as well, but at 8.2k, he’s going to exceed value as well. And I do think wrestling will likely come into play if he wins too, which just increases his floor/ceiling.
He’s +265 to win ITD which isn’t particularly good and we’ve seen a wide range of scoring from him in decisions. The worst score was 94 points though and he’s topped 130 on three different occasions, one of which came by decision.
If we see a super high scoring card, then perhaps it’s worth fading this fight on a few lineups. Lopes could have early success, but slow down and Volk could win a competitive distance affair that just doesn’t reach 100 points. Maybe he gets kicked off the optimal in that sense.
But from a floor standpoint, the winner should score well here, regardless of who and by what method. I’m going to be heavy on the fight as a whole by default, and I’ll personally have a slight-moderate lean toward the Volkanovski side in all likelihood.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Volkanovski by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
Fight Odds: Pimblett -150, Chandler +130
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Pimblett 8.4k, Chandler 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
We have a pretty fun five-round co-main event between former title challenger Michael Chandler, and English superstar Paddy Pimblett.
Chandler, of course, came from the Bellator promotion where he was the lightweight champion, but he has largely had an underwhelming run in the UFC.
There’s no doubt he’s a fan favorite with his power-striking style, but I’ve never been very respectful of his game and I think it’s only looked worse since he’s gotten to this promotion. He still has a couple of sick knockouts on his record, over Dan Hooker in his UFC debut, as well as a highlight-reel front kick over Tony Ferguson, but he’s dropped his other four fights and he’s looked pretty poor in most of them.
One of the biggest issues in Chandler’s game to date is that he doesn’t know how to maintain his energy. He is very explosive, and driven by moments, but he cannot really maintain a pace for long and often tires out.
In that, Chandler is very poor defensively and open to being rocked, taken down and submitted. So I largely view him as a fighter who needs to win quickly, as the longer the fight goes, the less big moments he will be capable of.
We actually saw him go the full five round distance last time out against Charles Oliveira, and he nearly knocked Oliveira out in that final fifth round which was pretty impressive. But it’s important to note contextually that Chandler had lost the previous four rounds and had accrued almost zero offense in that span, so by default he still had some energy left in the tank.
Numerically, Chandler was outstruck 76-44 in those first five rounds, and he gave up four takedowns, while yielding 13.5 minutes of control. The only real positive was that he didn’t give up a submission.
It was a better result than we’d seen in his previous fight against Dustin Poirier, whom Chandler had wrestling success early. But a couple takedowns in round one and round two exhausted his gas tank, and Poirier was able to get him down and submit him in that third round.
In fights prior, Chandler took a ton of damage from Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira, and was knocked down three separate times.
He spent two years on the shelf trying to get a fight with Conor McGregor that never came to fruition, and I just don’t see Chandler making any positive progressions in his game at 38 years old.
He actually comes from a legit wrestling background where he was a D1 All-American, and that’s still a solid skill that he carries. Technical Tim actually wrestled alongside him as a youth in Missouri.
The problem is that Chandler doesn’t really wrestle very often, and he’s pretty poor defensively these days. He still has solid takedowns but it wastes his energy and he’s not the best submission grappler despite being a black belt in jiu-jitsu.
The only other thing he can do is wing power shots. Sometimes they land, most often they miss. And they waste energy too. He’s still a very dangerous guy but he needs those big power shots to land most likely and if they don’t, he’s likely getting hurt and taken down himself.
Paddy Pimblett on the other side has a chance to prove himself worthy of a high ranking in this division, to the sad cries of many fans stateside who want to see him fail.
He’s one of those rare fighters who was extremely hyped up entering the promotion, though the hype was not necessarily deserved.
With that said, Pimblett is a solid fighter and the hate that he’s received has arguably made him undervalued in some spots.
Pimblett is a crafty submission grappler where he is probably at his best, and he’s coming off a super slick submission win over Bobby Green in the first round last July.
He’s also proven to be a better striker than I originally thought. He throws with power and he’s shown a pretty diverse kicking game. He was attacking the legs of Green early which made Green dive into a takedown attempt that got him submitted.
I think Pimblett on the whole is pretty decent. He can win in multiple areas and he’s tough as hell.
His defense, however, is still pretty poor and I think that will cost him at the top of the division. His striking defense, primarily, is an issue where he is there to be cracked, and he’s only defending strikes at a super poor 40 percent rate.
He was hurt really badly in his UFC debut but still came back to knock the guy out cold late in the first round. Jared Gordon cracked him as well. It would be no surprise if Chandler hurt him badly at some point.
Pimblett has also shown somewhat weak defensive wrestling too, where he sits at 52 percent which isn’t great. Jordan Leavitt even took him down three times which is pretty embarrassing. He came back to submit Leavitt though which again shows his toughness.
Additionally, Pimblett looked kind of tired late in the fight against Tony Ferguson, though he fought through it. He’s actually fought five rounds on a few different occasions in Cage Warriors early in his career, two of which he lost by decision. He has a five round win over Julian Erosa as well..
I think Pimblett is pretty good in the aggregate but as he takes on the top level of the division, he’s likely going to lose. He’s just too defensively lacking in multiple areas and toughness will only get him so far.
But he has multiple tools to threaten opponents and he won’t quit, making him a dangerous out for many.
I think this matchup is a bit tricky to predict but ultimately I think Pimblett is the deserving favorite. I simply trust him to produce more consistent offense, and Chandler arguably has bigger flaws in his style than Pimblett does.
On the feet, I think Pimblett is the better striker minute to minute. He can annoy Chandler with his outside kicking game, and possibly do damage to his legs and body. He also likes to throw heavy counter shots and he may just hurt Chandler standing.
At the same time, Chandler may knock him dead, though I’d expect it to come early. Both guys may tire which could make things weird but I like the gas tank of Paddy a bit more.
Chandler can definitely take Pimblett down but I have no idea if he will want to or will try. Even if he does, I don’t see him doing a ton with it unless he’s just holding onto Paddy inside a full guard. He could certainly win multiple rounds by doing that though..
Pimblett I’m less sure can easily take Chandler down, but as Chandler tires there will be more opportunities. I also think Pimblett is the better submission grappler and I definitely think he has potential to take the back – that outcome feels pretty likely – though Chandler just survived with Oliveira on his back who is far better than Pimblett.
Overall, both guys can win this fight. Chandler probably needs fight-ending damage or lots of top control, but both outcomes are possible – I lean toward the former. Pimblett I think can win rounds striking and I think he’s the tougher guy, and also the more dangerous grappler overall, but his pure wrestling isn’t phenomenal.
I’ll take Pimblett to survive some sketchy moments early and come back to win by submission once Chandler tires out, but it’s not an outcome I’m super confident in and I can see a number of different ways the fight plays out.
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On DraftKings, the fact that this is a five round fight makes this arguably the best matchup on the slate to target, even ahead of the main event.
At the very least, getting five rounds of Pimblett or Chandler at 8.4k and 7.8k respectively should give the winner an extremely high floor/ceiling combination, and it’s a fight I want to be involved with to a heavy degree.
Pimblett is my preferred option as I trust his offense more. I think he can land strikes at a pretty high rate here, with some knockout equity. He also has mild wrestling equity, with some potential for control/reversals and a submission. He definitely has finish equity overall and is -120 to win ITD which is an elite number for this price.
Really, it’s not that tough of a decision. You should have exposure to Pimblett at 8.4k given this five-round status, his style and his opponent. He could be a primary play and I would be scared to be too far underweight to the field.
Chandler I like less, but not a whole lot less. He probably has more early finishing equity, and he definitely has knockout upside. He also can land multiple takedowns and earn minutes of control.
I see less paths to Chandler winning a decision but the fight could be close and he could pull it off with wrestling or a random KD mixed in. At 7.8k, I’d still like exposure to that outcome, and he’s still +180 to win ITD which is strong.
Perhaps Pimblett comes in higher owned and Chandler is the leverage side, but I don’t see him being incredible leverage. Both fighters should be highly owned. You could even choose to lean toward the Chandler side outright as he’s a pretty thin underdog on the moneyline.
Like Pimblett, I’d simply be afraid to be too far underweight to the field here, even though I don’t really respect Chandler as a fighter, he has an obvious path to landing big shots early.
Realistically, I’m just going to be heavy on this fight outright. I’ll have a mild-moderate lean toward Pimblett depending on how frisky I want to get on stands, but it should be a fun matchup and the winner of the fight should score well enough to contend for the optimal on an average night.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pimblett by RNC, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -230, Mitchell +193
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.1k, Mitchell 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have one of the most popular fights on the card here between Bryce Mitchell and Jean Silva.
If you haven’t been paying attention, Mitchell made some stupid, controversial comments about Hitler and the Holocaust which made a lot of people rightfully upset. Silva then took advantage of the backlash and was screaming “fuck Bryce Mitchell” at a viral press conference. Mitchell has since come out and said he believes Silva is possessed by demons..
So this fight has a ton of hype to it, largely for what’s happened outside the cage. It should still be a fun battle inside the cage too.
I have been skeptical of Jean Silva. I have picked against him several times but I have not bet on any of his fights. He has definitely proven me wrong in striking fights as he has turned out to be an extremely dangerous striker.
Silva put on a good performance against Jourdain and hurt Jourdain several times, and eventually knocked him out. Silva then defeated Drew Dober in a back and forth brawl. Most recently, Silva knocked Melsik Baghdasaryan dead in his last matchup. All three were good power striking based performances.
Silva is mostly a power striker. I consider him to have good hands with power in the pocket. I definitely think he can continue to knock out fighters at this level. I like his aggression at times too and he can use it to make opponents uncomfortable.
However, I am not sure he is great defensively as a striker. He looks susceptible to kicks. He also doesn’t look to wrestle offensively so he is limited to striking as a path to victory. He is still obviously a very lethal power threat, but I still do want to see more of him.
There is not a ton of tape on Silva regionally and his grappling defense is a bit of a question mark. However, I found his most recent loss where he was easily outwrestled and mounted for entire rounds. The bout took place in 2018 so perhaps he has improved. That fight was literally seven years ago. However, we haven’t seen much of Silva’s defensive grappling and have never seen it against any good grapplers.
My guess is that he will get exposed on the mat at some point. Even Jourdain landed three takedowns on him. Furthermore, I heard Tim Welch mention on his podcast that he watched a sparring partner take and hold Silva down on the mat. I don’t put too much stock into gym rumors though.
I definitely am still a bit skeptical of Silva compared to the market and I think he will get exposed on the mat at some point. However, I do think he is UFC level as far as a power based striker goes, and he will give a lot of people problems there. The Jourdain and Dober wins were great performances.
Silva will be taking on Bryce Mitchell. Mitchell is almost exclusively a grappler so we will finally see Silva potentially tested on the mat.
Coming from a wrestling background, Mitchell lands 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also attempts a lot of takedowns. He attempted 13 takedowns in his matchup against Andre Fili in a fight that only took place on the feet for 4-5 minutes. So Mitchell optimizes his path to victory which is something you always want to see in a specialist. He doesn’t mess around too much on the feet.
Mitchell is also quite good in top position. He can pass guard, threaten with submissions, and land occasional ground-and-pound. You want to see that at this level. His takedowns actually mean something, and he doesn’t just stall and lay in guard.
Mitchell isn’t a very strong striker. He only lands 2.31 significant strikes per minute. He does only absorb 1.53 in return though and defends strikes at 58 percent. So although he is not going to exactly easily win fights on the feet with that striking output, he at least limits engagements on the feet.
I also like that Mitchell seems like a tough guy. That could come in handy in this matchup as he just needs to stay conscious to have a good chance to win. Mitchell did get knocked dead by Josh Emmett in 2023 though, so obviously he can be hurt.
This is a super binary fight here. Silva will own Mitchell if this stays standing and there is a solid chance he knocks Mitchell out. Silva could easily win this fight. We all know that.
However, -300 for a guy in Silva who has never faced a grappler seems crazy. We just saw a similar matchup last week where grappling dependent fighter Pat Sabatini crushed the moments based fighter in Joanderson Brito.
I could easily see the same thing happening here. Mitchell is BY FAR the best wrestler that Silva has faced. I can’t get that regional fight out of my head where Silva was outgrappled. Jourdain landing three takedowns in six minutes is also a bad sign. So I am actually going to go with the upset here. I think there is a seriously good chance that Mitchell just gets a hold of Silva and owns him on the mat.
This is truly speculation though and Silva has burned me so many times. It may happen again here. Silva winning is fully realistic and he is a -300 favorite. However, price is everything and Silva is an absolutely awful bet if you are playing him -300 in a stylistic fight that he has never fought before.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest in this matchup given the binary dynamic.
I’ve been burned by Silva as well, and my first instinct is to get away from him again this week.
He’s simply just a boom or bust, knockout dependent fighter at 9.1k. While he’s facing an opponent who can be knocked dead, if Mitchell gets a hold of him early, Mitchell could easily extend the fight and kill off some of Silva’s upside.
At the same time, I’m not fully sure how to cap Mitchell given his antics outside the cage. It’s not usually a factor for me but there is definitely something mentally wrong with Mitchell. I don’t necessarily feel like he’s training optimally for this fight and clearly his head is not in the right place.
I also don’t want to put too much stock into it.
The bottom line is that Silva needs to win by early knockout to exceed value and contend with the optimal lineup. If I hadn’t seen Mitchell KOd dead by Emmett, I’d probably fade him. But I have seen that, and it does give me pause because there’s a real chance Mitchell cannot ground Silva early and if he cannot, maybe he’s just going to get hurt badly again.
So I actually don’t think Silva is a terrible play in general. He clearly has a path to a knockout and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it come to fruition. He is -125 to win ITD which is pretty strong.
I was originally thinking he would be very chalky but the line has rightfully been moving toward Mitchell this week, and I could see Krylo/Tulio/Hooper pulling off a chunk of ownership away from Silva. So he may not even be fully chalk. He is still coming off wins of 107, 66, 104 and 115 and will be popular to a degree as it’s one of the more entertaining fights to talk about this week, and I also think most will see Silva as a clear step up on paper above the 8k range.
At semi-chalk, my lean is to get away from Silva at a fair rate, personally. I’d rather come in underweight to the field, pivoting off to fighters priced above Silva and also onto some of the more risky options priced below.
I still think he’s a strong upside target on paper and it’s totally fine if you want to come in near the field, but there is a clear path to Silva underperforming if Mitchell simply takes him down early in the fight and forces an extended matchup.
Mitchell at 7.1k is a very viable underdog.
There are a few dogs I like this week and I don’t consider Mitchell a stand out. I don’t think he obviously wins this matchup.
However, I do think a win for Mitchell is reasonable. He’s a strong grappler and probably will have some early success. In his last six wins, Mitchell has scored 105, 81, 124, 113, 88 and 108.
Given the dynamic of the matchup, I think Mitchell will need a few takedowns here if not more, lots of control and probably ground strikes. He even has some submission equity too though he’s only +450 ITD.
Simply, Mitchell carries grappling upside in a win, and he has a reasonable path to the win here. At 7.1k, especially if he’s going to also carry leverage against Silva, Mitchell is a decent underdog target for cheap.
I don’t think you should get too carried away but I don’t mind Mitchell as a secondary target and I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to the field on him.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Freire
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -194, Friere +165
Odds to Finish: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.7k, Friere 7.5k
Weight Class: 145
One of the best fighters in the Bellator organization over the past decade, the UFC has finally signed Patricio “Pitbull” Friere who will make his debut on Saturday against Yair Rodriguez.
I’m very excited to see Freire step into the Octagon for the first time but honestly, I don’t have super high expectations. The honest truth is that Pitbull is now 37 years old, and he’s accrued 43 professional fights to his name. It seems pretty clear to me that his best days are behind him and fighting the best of the UFC’s featherweight division will give him problems.
With that said, Pitbull is a pretty good fighter and he’s quite well-rounded. He’s a former featherweight and lightweight champion. He’s a scrappy boxer with some power, and he’s a fine wrestler and top-control grappler.
He’s earned 12 wins by knockout and another 12 by submission, and he’s also gone the five round distance on more than one occasion. He has quality wins over Emmanuel Sanchez, AJ McKee and Juan Archuleta. He also knocked out Michael Chandler in about a minute in 2019.
More recently, Pitbull lost a five-round decision to Sergio Pettis for the bantamweight championship, though Pettis is truly one of the best in the world. He was knocked out by Chihiro Suzuki in the RIZIN Superfighter, and most recently, Pitbull knocked out ex-UFC fighter Jeremy Kennedy in March of 2024.
I think my biggest gripe right now with Pitbull is that he’s too low volume on the feet for his size. He is small for the featherweight division, standing only 5’6”, and he will be clearly outsized by Yair Rodriguez. Pitbull is still a solid boxer who likes to counter but he just doesn’t throw enough and I think that will be an issue moving forward.
Additionally, the age, and wear and tear factor comes into play. He’s a super durable guy having only been knocked out twice, but he’s been getting hurt more often recently and I don’t necessarily think that aspect will improve.
Pitbull is a good wrestler and top player as well but he’s just not super urgent there either. I don’t think he’s a dominating force on the mat but it’s still a method for him to change up the game.
Overall, Pitbull is a fun addition to the featherweight roster and someone who can definitely win fights at the UFC level. But it’s likely a bit too late in the game to see him actually climb the ladder.
Rodriguez on the other side is a quality fighter but not someone I’ve been exceptionally high on, and I actually bet Brian Ortega both times as an underdog against him.
I still think Rodriguez is skilled, but it was also clear that he’s an overrated defensive grappler and I thought Ortega could take advantage of him. Despite nearly knocking Ortega out in the first round, Rodriguez eventually gave up takedowns, dominant positions, and was subbed in the third round.
On the feet, Rodriguez is much more of a threat. He’s a quality kickboxer and a creative kicker in general, and has pretty strong striking metrics, landing 4.65 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.99 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate.
He’s not a one-punch knockout type but we’ve also seen him hurt plenty of opponents and score the occasional knockdown.
When Yair can keep his kicking range, I quite like him. He’s very fluid and is hard to get reads on. He’s not an incredible boxer inside the pocket though.
He’s now defending takedowns at 58 percent which is clearly his biggest issue. Despite being a strong submission grappler, he’s been taken to school on the mat by more than one opponent, and was beaten to a pulp by Alexander Volkanovski when the two matched up in 2023. He’s faced very strong competition overall though.
Really, my issue here is that Pitbull is just not urgent enough on the feet.
Pitbull is probably a better pure boxer than Yair, but he’s going to be five inches shorter with a four-inch reach disadvantage. Given that Yair is a clearly superior kicker, I expect Yair to stick at distance and throw more volume. It seems pretty reasonable to me that he can get ahead of Pitbull and potentially hurt him as well.
Pitbull simply needs to close the distance. He’ll look to counter, get in the pocket and box. More realistically, he’ll need to land takedowns.
I do actually think Pitbull can have success here. He’s a good enough wrestler to get on top of Yair. Perhaps he can catch a kick or something as well. Pitbull has a legit path to win via top control.
At the same time, I just don’t know that he’s coming into the UFC looking to wrestle immediately and I mostly expect Yair to get ahead of him. By the time he starts wrestling it’s possible it could already be too late.
Even still, Pitbull is good and proven to be durable over a large sample. If he can pressure consistently and get in the pocket, he can land strikes and mix in a couple of takedowns, and potentially win a couple of rounds.
I do think the more likely outcome is that Yair outlands and outkicks Pitbull at distance for the majority of three rounds. He’ll have some damage equity too and if he gets taken down once, he is competent enough to throw up some submission attempts and scramble his way back to his feet.
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On DraftKings, I’m not particularly high on this fight but it’s not one to avoid necessarily either.
Rodriguez at 8.7k is more expensive than I’d like to pay. Historically this is not a fight where he’d have much ITD equity but seeing Pitbull get KOd badly a few fights ago, as well as getting hurt by Pettis, does make me nervous. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Yair landed something crazy early like a flying knee that put Pitbull down. He’s only +215 to win ITD though.
Without the finish, I don’t really see Yair getting to the optimal. It isn’t likely that he wrestles, or has much success on top. Volume could be there but 100 strikes doesn’t do us any good.
I really think he just needs a finish, which based on the odds, isn’t a super likely outcome. At 8.7k, I’m not extremely interested in him for that reason.
However, with the potential regression of Pitbull, I still think Yair is a fine tournament play, and I’ll likely use him in more mid-range builds. I won’t be too high on him but I wouldn’t mind mixing him in as he tends to be somewhat dangerous early and I do think he can land strikes.
Pitbull at 7.5k is in play for his wrestling path to victory.
Sort of like last week with Falcao, I don’t really expect Pitbull to get the job done and so I’m probably not going to be heavy here. But he likely will wrestle a bit and he can definitely land 1-2 takedowns. In a win, I would expect it to come from wrestling and control which would give him a good chance to exceed value. He’s actually +275 to win ITD which I think is a bit high, but he has a nasty guillotine so that’s probably the most realistic way I could see him finishing the fight. He also has some power.
I don’t know. Pitbull is certainly in play and will rate out OK given those ITD metrics and some wrestling equity. Yair is tough and I wouldn’t bet on a KO though. For 7.5k, Pitbull is a fine secondary option and someone I’d include in my portfolio, but it’s not a spot I’d aim to be overweight to the field on personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes
Fight Odds: Krylov -176, Reyes +151
Odds to Finish: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Krylov 8.8k, Reyes 7.4k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Nikita Krylov is inching closer and closer to a title shot and a win over former title contender Dominick Reyes this weekend will certainly help his case.
Krylov is a pretty good fighter and a very dangerous one. He is a skilled and powerful striker, capable of hurting opponents. He lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.47 in return. Those are solid metrics. He is very aggressive and offensive minded. He actually outlanded Magomed Ankalaev 45-29 at distance in their fight but lost by getting controlled on the ground. On the feet, I really think Krylov is live to compete against anyone in this weight class.
Krylov is also a capable grappler on the mat. He lands 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and against Johnny Walker, he showed he was capable of floating in top position. He outwrestled Volkan Oezdemir as well. He is also submission capable and has several in his career including his last win by triangle choke against Ryan Spann.
Krylov has had some issues defensively as a grappler though. He has been submitted a couple of times including by Jan Blachowicz and Misha Cirkunov. He was also controlled by Magomed Ankalaev. Krylov isn’t a perfect grappler and those fights clearly showed it. He has skills on the mat, he is just sometimes a bit chaotic which causes him to get submitted or reversed by better grapplers. However, I do think he has improved and that his grappling isn’t a major weakness of his game, especially at this weight class.
Krylov is just a solid UFC light heavyweight. He is well-rounded and offensively potent in all areas.
Krylov will be taking on UFC veteran Dominick Reyes. Reyes is famous for giving Jon Jones everything that Jones could handle back in 2020. Reyes then went on a really tough losing streak and was knocked out three straight times by Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Ryan Spann. All of those guys are either good or hit very hard so it’s not an unforgivable losing streak, but it was concerning seeing Reyes getting knocked out over and over.
Obviously getting knocked out several times is a concern but I am not sure Reyes’ durability is awful or anything given his competition levels and who he was knocked out by, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Reyes has since bounced back with two straight finishes against Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith.
Reyes is a pretty decent striker with knockout power, and he has won by knockout several times. He lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.59 in return. I consider him a fine striker at this weight class with decent power and decent volume. He has a good straight left standing out of the southpaw stance.
Reyes doesn’t really wrestle offensively and only lands 0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. He did beat the crap out of Smith from top position in his last fight but Anthony Smith is terrible and I doubt Reyes offensively wrestles often going forward. I do consider Reyes’ TDD strong though as he defends takedowns at 82 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think this will be a striking fight. Reyes rarely wrestles and is really hard to take down. I think Krylov would be the one landing takedowns if anyone is, but I doubt the takedowns will come easy for him. I also doubt Krylov can ground Reyes for extended periods.
On the feet, I actually think this is really close and I think the line could be wide. I do worry about Reyes’ durability though. Krylov is seriously dangerous and Reyes has been knocked out several times. So maybe Krylov is justifiably favored for that reason alone. Reyes hasn’t been knocked out with anything soft though. I don’t think his durability is truly awful or anything.
I don’t know man. I really just see this as a competitive striking fight and Reyes is quite dangerous himself too. He could probably hurt Krylov too.
If this goes 15 minutes, I am guessing it will be close with both guys having moments. It’s not like Krylov has cruised to many easy striking based decisions in his career. He generally wins fights ITD. I am going to go with Krylov as I think he is probably more likely to finish the fight, but I want nothing to do with his moneyline.
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On DraftKings, this is a reasonable fight to target given the weight class and odds to end inside the distance.
The fight is currently sitting at -215 to end ITD, which is decent compared to some other fights on this slate. Both men could get it done.
We’ve seen high ceilings from Krylov in the past due to pacing, grappling and finishing ability, although he’s reigned that in a bit in recent years. Still, Reyes has been brutally KOd a few times so I do think a KO for Krylov is in play.
Honestly, a KO for Reyes is in play too. I’m not sure it comes at a high rate but Reyes is fine, and hits hard. Krylov isn’t the most defensively sound guy in the world.
The issue here is really just variance, and in an extended fight, we likely won’t see either optimal. Of the two, I’d probably rather play Krylov who is now -115 to win ITD, compared to the +340 line of Reyes.
At the same time, if Reyes stays conscious, I don’t see why he can’t win. He has some reasonable win equity for 7.4k.
I do kind of like a couple other fighters in this lower 7k range though, and ones who can grapple. I will probably prioritize them over Reyes who really does need a KO to stand out among the rest.
Still, Reyes is a fine secondary target and probably someone you should mix into constructions depending on the size of your portfolio. It’s a big man fight and both guys hit hard.
Kyrlov is my preferred target at 8.8k but he’s still largely finishing dependent and I’m starting to think he’ll be very chalky. He’s scored 121, 127 and 121 in back-to-back fights which really stands out, and he’s likely to be strongly preferred by the public between 9k-8.5k. Just something worth noting.
His ITD line is still strong though, and Reyes’ recent durability questions do make me hopeful for his upside, but Krylov is probably better on the mat than on the feet, so I don’t think it’s a lock he knocks Reyes out.
At 8.8k, I consider Krylov a strong tournament target with finishing equity. But at chalk, I won’t aim to be much overweight to the field here as there are certainly ways for him to bust, or simply lose.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Krylov by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson
Fight Odds: Woodson -162, Ige +140
Odds to Finish: +185
DraftKings Salaries: Woodson 8.5k, Ige 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what should be a fun fight here in the featherweight division between UFC veterans Sean Woodson and striker Dan Ige.
Woodson is putting together a nice career in the UFC. He is 8-1-1 in the UFC and is a pretty consistent fighter. I am actually excited that he is finally getting a step up in competition here against a guy like Ige. Woodson deserves the opportunity in my opinion.
Woodson is a striker and more specifically a boxer. He is also huge at 6’2″ with a 78 inch reach. That just baffles me. This guy is my height and I would literally have to cut off a leg to make 145 pounds. His size is surely an advantage and opponents struggle dealing with it.
Woodson lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.20 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent. I quite like the boxing of Woodson and always have. He is quite good defensively and is good with his shoulder rolls and trunk movement to avoid the strikes of his opponents. He also has good offense and has solid straight punches and a very nice jab. He will mix his punches to all levels and likes to target the body. He can also mix in some kicks and step in knees, and I overall just respect Woodson as a striker.
Woodson has also never been outlanded in head strikes in his UFC career and sneakily has some good wins including against Youssef Zalal, Charles Jourdain, and Alex Caceres. We also played Woodson in his last fight against Padilla and Woodson just dominated him.
Woodson is also a solid defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 84 percent. He does a really good job of getting wrist control in defensive wrestling positions. I also sneakily think Woodson can offensively wrestle a bit. He has landed five takedowns in his last four fights which was never a part of his game in his early career. He showed me some decent takedowns and an understanding of how to float in top position. I do think he can land takedowns against weaker grapplers.
Woodson does have some weaknesses though. First, he doesn’t have a ton of power. He has won by knockout a few times in the UFC and is by no means a weak hitter. I wasn’t all that surprised that he finished Padilla honestly. However, I do wish Woodson hit a bit harder.
Furthermore, Woodson had one bad performance against Luis Saldana. Woodson was knocked down twice in the first round and just didn’t look himself. He did at least compete after the knockdowns and rallied to score a draw, but it was a little concerning as I think he is better than Saldana. I will chalk that fight up to an outlier though as Woodson has consistently shown good round winning ability on the feet. Woodson has never been finished in his career and at least he showed against Saldana he won’t quit and fight through adversity.
Overall, I just think Woodson is a solid striker at this level who will continue to beat many guys in striking fights in the UFC.
Woodson will be taking on Dan Ige. Ige is seriously one of the most durable fighters in the sport and has never been finished in 27 professional fights, competing against great competition. It was cool seeing him fight admirably on short notice against Diego Lopes two fights ago as well, and he would have probably won that fight had it been five rounds. He came up short in his last fight against Lerone Murphy. However, he damn near knocked Murphy out in the process.
Coming from a grappling background, Ige actually preferred to grapple early in his UFC career. He landed 4, 1, 1, and 3 takedowns in his first four UFC fights.
However, he seems to be more interested in striking these days. He only lands 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes now and has only landed three total takedowns in his last 31 UFC rounds. I do think he can land takedowns here and there, especially against bad grapplers. However, I don’t have a ton of faith in his takedowns against above-average competition.
Ige really likes to strike now. He lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.50 in return. Those are decent metrics given the competition Ige has fought. He has constantly fought killers. Ige is just a blue collar tough dude who can generally compete in all areas.
Ige has some decent brawling oriented boxing and has some solid power in the pocket. He has a couple of knockouts in the UFC, and I do think he is pretty dangerous. His pocket power is seriously a threat and we have seen it many times. He can be out slicked on the feet though, especially against guys who can control range.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think these guys will strike. Woodson has great TDD and I doubt either guy will go for a ton of takedowns. A takedown landing for either guy wouldn’t surprise me but I doubt many will land, and I doubt that either guy can hold the other down with any ease.
On the feet, I think Woodson is the better round winner and technical boxer. He is just so much longer than Ige, and I think he can just volume Ige up at range with his straight punches and boxing. I just think Woodson is the more technical boxer with better volume, skills, and length. My guess is those reasons will allow Woodson to get up on the strike count and that he should win this fight if he just avoids getting hurt by Ige.
Ige is seriously dangerous though and will try very hard. I do think Ige will have his opportunities to land in the pocket. I do think Ige will have some eye-catching moments as well.
Woodson is very good defensively though with his shoulder rolls and trunk movement. I also consider Woodson pretty damn durable too and he is generally just comfortable and composed when guys are trying to take his head off. So I am going to pick Woodson to volume Ige up and stay comfortable enough to survive when Ige unloads.
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On DraftKings, I lean against targeting this one at a high rate.
I like Woodson too, but Ige is insanely durable and Ige likely has the grappling upside of the two.
While Woodson can still tee off over three rounds, 100+ significant strikes isn’t going to be enough to secure a spot on the optimal lineup. We’ve seen Woodson score 70, 73, 61 and 82 in his decisions in the UFC, and that’s along the lines of what I would expect again.
Woodson is only +575 ITD here which is just a real problem. Maybe he can land a random KD or maybe he can land a random TD. Couple that with 120 sig. strikes and maybe he could push 90 points on DK. But I think that’s an absolute ceiling outcome.
More realistically, Woodson lands 80-100 sig. strikes and puts up a score between 60-70 points. It’s just not enough for 8.5k. I do expect him to be contrarian though so if you want a place to be unique, here is one option. I still don’t love the spot.
Ige is the fighter who I’d prefer to play on DK at 7.7k.
He has real knockout power and in order to win this fight, he’ll need damage. He could also land takedowns, even though he has basically abandoned that path, 1-2 takedowns over 15 minutes is possible.
He could also strike competitively at times with Woodson but that really won’t be a benefit for a DK standpoint. Having Ige win or lose a fight in which he lands 60 sig. strikes just isn’t enough at 7.7k.
Really, he needs the KO. I do think that outcome is possible and Ige is actually +250 ITD which is a much better line than Woodson’s. I think using Ige as a secondary target is viable, and we have seen Woodson hurt before.
At the same time, it’s not the best matchup for Ige, hence being the dog. Woodson is seven inches taller with a seven-inch reach advantage, so it’s going to be tough to land on him. Plus, Woodson is more technical than Ige.
I don’t mind taking some shots here as Ige has proven power, but I’ll likely aim to come in light on him and the fight as a whole, and just hope it plays out as it should on paper with Woodson casually outlanding Ige at distance for the majority of 15 minutes.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Woodson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba
Fight Odds: Jandiroba -145, Xiaonan +126
Odds to Finish: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Jandiroba 8.3k, Xiaonan 7.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential title eliminator here between jiu-jitsu ace Virna Jandiroba and battle-tested UFC veteran Yan Xiaonan.
Jandiroba is on a four-fight winning streak and basically dominated all of those fights against Angela Hill, Marina Rodriguez, Loopy Godinez, and Amanda Lemos. It has been a good run for Jandiroba.
Jandiroba is a fantastic grappler, and I have generally been higher on her than others in the past. She is a world class BJJ player and it shows in her fights. She lands 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a very capable wrestler. I actually quite like her takedowns for someone who comes from a BJJ background. She can hit doubles and has a really good single leg series.
Jandiroba is also very dangerous in top position. She can pass guard extremely well and is dangerous while moving from position to position. She also has a solid submission grappling game. She has three submissions in the UFC and is capable of submitting most fighters in this weight class.
One other thing I like about Jandiroba’s ground game is her sweep game. She can use her sweeps to reverse and obtain top position. Furthermore, even when her takedowns do not land, she can force sweeps with leg entanglements to get top position. She used sweeps to get top position on Angela Hill, Loopy Godinez, and Amanda Lemos. This is a huge weapon to have for her and may be the most important aspect of her game. She can fail on a takedown and just maneuver her way into top position which is a huge X factor when top position generally seals a round for her.
When Jandiroba is fighting strikers, she generally fights very smart and is all the way in or all the way out, fighting on her terms. She does a great job of just clinching and entangling with strikers and not letting them have room to operate. The only losses in Jandiroba’s career have all come against grapplers in competitive fights.
Jandiroba is not much of a striker. She lands 2.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.73. She is not really going to win rounds on the feet and is basically a liability there. I do think she at least does an underrated job of limiting striking engagements and damage, as she is never really getting hit with anything clean.
I really like Janidoba’s grappling game though. She is one of the better grappler’s in all of WMMA. If her grappling game fails though, she is generally going to lose.
Jandiroba will be taking on Yan Xiaonan. I like Yan. I have always thought she is a solid fighter especially when she gets striking fights.
Yan lands 4.99 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.44. She defends strikes at 60 percent. She thrives specifically with her punches and will blitz in with long and extended combinations that generally find the target. She can also mix in kicks, but I generally think her quick hands are her strength. She does have decently impactful strikes too. I generally think Yan is a very good striker and that she can compete with any woman in this weight class in a pure striking fight.
Yan doesn’t offensively grapple much. She only lands 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and only attempts about one takedown per fight. I don’t really expect Yan to win fights with her offensive grappling at this level. It would have to be against very low level competition.
Defensively, Yan is semi competent as a defensive grappler. She defends takedowns at 63 percent and showed okay tdd early on in her UFC career against girls like Gadelha. She got destroyed on the mat by Carla Esparza which was obviously a big concern. Carla just dominated her. Her tdd and get-ups looked awful in that fight.
That fight was four years ago though, and I do think Yan’s TDD and get-ups have improved to a degree since then. She defended a lot of takedowns against Dern and does look to explode out of positions on the mat when she does end up on bottom. She also defended some takedowns against Zhang but was ultimately taken down six times and basically choked unconscious at the end of round one, but was saved by the bell. She still did explode out of positions on bottom though. Ricci didn’t really attempt takedowns on Yan.
I do think Yan’s tdd has improved. She can work up to a degree now as well. However, I just think Jandiroba will be a bit too tricky for Yan. So I am going to pick Jandiroba to win.
I do think Jandiroba can land takedowns here. Although I do think Yan can probably defend some and perhaps explode from bottom a few times too. So Yan could have some moments. Yan is a much better striker so when the fight is on the feet, Yan will score. Yan winning a round and making this close wouldn’t surprise me.
I ultimately think the chaining of Jandiroba is where Yan is going to get beaten though. I think Jandiroba may fail some takedowns, but she will grab onto a leg and extend a grappling sequence and ultimately get on top because Yan didn’t disengage properly. I think enough of those sequences will happen for Jandiroba to ultimately get the top time she needs to win the fight. I do think Jandiroba could submit Yan too. I am going to pick Yan to survive though.
So I will go with Jandiroba here. Jandiroba will probably land some takedowns and ultimately take advantage of some extended grappling sequences to get the control time she needs to win here.
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On DraftKings, I lean toward the Jandiroba side of the two given her grappling pedigree.
Jandiroba is priced at 8.3k and seems to be a solid secondary option on a fight by fight basis. In wins, she’s scored 96, 80, 95, 79, 86, 97 and 101. The 80, 95 and 79 scores came in decisions.
The issue – both positive and negative – is that Jandiroba is a dependent grappler. When she wins, she’s going to have success on the mat and that gives her a reasonable ceiling. But she’s limited in general and even in a decision sometimes she doesn’t produce a whole lot of offense.
Xiaonan on the other hand has never been one of my favorites but she’s OK. I don’t think she’s terrible but at the same time, she was put in real bad spots by Zhang not too long ago. Obviously Jandiroba is the better grappler here.
So at 8.3k, if Jandoriba wins, it will come with multiple takedowns, control and potentially a submission. I do lean toward her needing that submission to be optimal, which I also don’t think is a real guarantee. Jandiroba is +220 to win ITD.
I don’t have a super strong opinion here. I’m perfectly fine to mix in Jandiroba at 8.3k given her grappling upside against an opponent who can be beaten on the mat. I don’t want to be super aggressive though as Jandiroba is pretty limited outside of her grappling and Xiaonan has been improving enough to the point where she may neutralize Jandiroba a bit.
Conversely, I don’t really want to play Xiaonan at 7.9k.
She just needs a knockout. If you think she’s going to win by knockout, you can play her. Or, perhaps she’ll be low enough owned that she’ll fall into the contrarian bucket and you can target her for unique purposes.
Xiaonan does hit really hard. A knockdown is definitely viable. But even if she hurts Jandiroba to a degree, she’ll likely have to chase her to the floor to finish the fight, and Jandiroba can probably survive there. So I don’t think this is the best matchup for Xiaonan to reach a ceiling. She is only +485 ITD.
The more realistic scenario anyway is that even in a win, Jandiroba has mild control success but still gets outlanded a bit at distance. We could see Xiaonan land 70-80 strikes in a decision win even, and put up a mid-60s scorecard.
There are just a lot of bust cases against an opponent like Jandiroba who won’t engage on the feet and will be looking for control. Target Xiaonan for pure KO upside and low public ownership if you want, but I lean more toward her being a pretty underwhelming and risky target in this kind of matchup and I’d like to generally stay away if possible.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jandiroba by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper
Fight Odds: Hooper -872, Miller +575
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Hooper 9.6k, Miller 6.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Chase Hooper is looking for a five fight win streak in the UFC when he takes on Jim Miller this weekend. Hooper is coming off a win against another aging fighter in Clay Guida, so it looks like the UFC is trying to build Hooper up to a degree.
Hooper’s grappling on the mat is his bread and butter and he can definitely keep beating UFC level competition with it. Hooper is a dangerous submission grappler and is tricky at using leg entanglements to either get a submission or sweep / scramble and reverse position. He has a decent half guard sweep as well. Once on top, Hooper can absolutely go to work and I like his ground-and-pound and tenacity. He can end fights on the mat. I really like his pace and cardio too. I also just like Hooper’s toughness and tenacity. He tries hard in fights.
Hooper’s takedowns are okay but not great. He lands 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think his actual takedowns are very good and he does lack some physicality. He has struggled landing takedowns on guys in his UFC career. However, he does a good job of just being aggressive with his strikes and pressure, and will do anything to get a hold of his opponents including pulling guard. He is at least tenacious even if his pure takedowns aren’t good. It will work against a lot of guys. However, anyone with solid tdd will surely give him issues.
Hooper is a bit of a liability on the feet. We have seen him knocked down five times in the UFC and he got the crap kicked out of him by Steve Garcia. Garcia is a very heavy hitter so I will give Hooper some slack there. However, I will always be a bit concerned for Hooper if he is going against someone with power and decent tdd.
Hooper has improved his striking though. He actually dropped Borshchev which was most likely luck. However, he lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.26 in return. Most of those strikes have been landed on the mat by him though and he actually defends strikes at a terrible 37 percent.
I think Hooper uses pace, pressure, and cardio well though to aid his striking. He isn’t a huge hitter and isn’t very physical or technical. However, we have seen him bother guys on the feet by simply being tenacious. He will always be susceptible to getting hit hard by singular shots though.
Hooper will be taking on UFC veteran Jim Miller. How can one not like Jim Miller? He is a humble dude and a family man. He also has been doing this whole UFC thing for such a long time. He is an easy guy to root for and I always want to see him win from a human / fan perspective. However, from a betting / analytical perspective, I have not been as high on him as others as he has some flaws in his game.
Miller lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.51 in return. Miller just does not have a ton of volume on the feet, and I don’t really trust him to win striking rounds. He does have a powerful straight left hand though and he can hurt people with it.
Miller also tires out a bit and is generally not nearly effective as a fighter in later rounds. It shows in his results as well. Miller has lost his last eight fights that have gone to decision. He has not won a decision in eight years. In those eight decision losses, Miller has only broken 60 significant strikes twice.
Miller is a good submission grappler. He lands 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is capable of landing takedowns and threatening with submissions, especially from the back. However, I again do not trust him to implement a wrestling game plan for 15 minutes and win a decision, as he simply doesn’t have the best cardio to do it. His wrestling becomes less effective as the fight goes on.
Miller also has bad takedown defense which often gets overlooked. Miller defends takedowns at 49 percent and generally can be held down for very long stretches.
Look, Miller is 10-10 in his last 20 fights. His 10 wins have all come inside the distance, against many below-average fighters, and generally in the first round.
I still think Miller is dangerous and opportunistic early. He is capable of landing hard punches or locking in an opportunistic submission. His guillotine is nasty. I will always respect that path to victory for him, especially against low tier competition. However, I do not trust him to win fights at this level much unless he gets that early finish. So it is hard to trust him. It was just two fights ago where Bobby Green absolutely murdered him over the duration.
As far as this matchup goes, I think it is early finish for Miller or bust. If this fight gets extended, I think the wrestling and cardio and pace of Hooper will just wear on Miller and Miller will get beaten up, especially on the mat. Hooper is pretty relentless with his ground-and-pound. It could get ugly.
Miller does have a puncher’s chance though. I like his straight left hand and I easily could see Hooper getting hit with it. I think that is Miller’s best chance at finishing Hooper.
Miller is also an opportunistic submission artist so maybe he could submit Hooper too. I think Hooper is a good submission grappler though which is the problem for Miller here. I would kind of be surprised if Miller straight up submitted Hooper which limits one of Miller’s primary and historical paths to victory. A submission by Hooper would probably have to come from a club-and-sub.
So I am going to go with Hooper here. I just think his pace and tenacity will eventually break Miller and lead to a finish for him.
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On DraftKings, I’m not particularly convinced that Hooper makes this look easy, but we have seen a reasonable ceiling from the winner of his matchups.
I still don’t think Hooper is all that great. But he’s certainly improving. I’m just a little worried he’s being overvalued here given the weakness of some of his recent matchups.
Hooper looked great in the Borshchev matchup but he had a massive advantage over him on the mat. Clay Guida has been subbed a million times. Jim Miller is just a different animal in some regard, and he’s only been submitted by Charles Oliveira, Nate Diaz and Michael Chiesa in a 45-fight sample..
I do think the most compelling argument for Hooper is pacing though. By the 10-15 minute mark, Hooper may very well have fully tired Miller out, and at that point, maybe he can produce offense wherever he wants. On the ground, he could land lots of shots and fish for a sub. I just don’t think the early minutes of this fight will be a simple task for Hooper as Miller is arguably better than him in some areas.
Hooper is priced at 9.6k, and I just have mixed feelings. Ultimately, I don’t mind chasing the upside of Hooper, who has scored 113, 134, 95, 120, 143, 74 and 112 in his wins in the UFC.
Hooper is up to -190 to win ITD here, though I’m pretty worried he doesn’t get the job done, I do think he could have some upside as the fight progresses. When Hooper gets into dominant positions, he can smash with total strikes and pour on the offense. Against an aging opponent, Hooper still has a reasonable path to a big ceiling.
I simply do not think Hooper will be dominating this fight early, and that’s my primary concern. Jim Miller is a super tough guy to submit, and Hooper isn’t likely to knock him out either. The upside comes with pacing but I don’t think this is the greatest matchup for Hooper on paper.
I do think having exposure to Hooper makes sense given his pacing/upside, but he’s also not a must at 9.6k. He’s expensive and you may not need to pay that much to achieve the optimal lineup. It would also be fine to pivot to cheaper options. Overall Hooper will still rate out quite well given his huge ML and pacing metrics.
Miller at 6.6k is in play though it will be hard to get much exposure.
It’s just a weird spot because Hooper being a strong submission grappler may really limit Miller’s path. At the same time, Hooper can be taken down and he can be hurt on the feet. Miller could land a couple of takedowns and some early strikes, and put up an OK score even in a loss.
In a win, he’d probably need a finish which again shows a legit ceiling. That, or landing multiple takedowns with control/damage. Miller is only +650 to win ITD ultimately.
I’m pretty fearful about ignoring Miller simply because he’s a big dog, but at the same time, there are a handful of decent underdogs on this slate who carry far more win equity on paper.
It certainly makes sense to prioritize them, which means that ultimately Miller is just a low-end, dart throw type of play. I would probably still include him in my large-field tournament portfolio but I don’t expect I will end up with too many shares.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hooper by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa
Fight Odds: Erosa -324, Elkins +260
Odds to Finish: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Erosa 9.3k, Elkins 6.9k
Weight Class: 145
We have a potentially hilarious fight here between UFC veterans Darren Elkins and Julian Erosa.
Elkins has been competing in the UFC since 2010, and although I’m long past the point of wanting to see him continue to step into the Octagon, Elkins keeps winning. He’s now picked up five wins in his last seven tries, including a recent victory over Daniel Pineda in October.
Really, it has nothing to do with his skills. I just don’t personally enjoy seeing Elkins bleeding all over the canvas and taking unnecessary damage, which he will continue to do until he eventually puts the gloves down. However, the man can still land a takedown, and grind his opponents down over 15 minutes.
Julian Erosa looks better and better these days, and is arguably now in his prime at age 35.
The thing with Erosa has always been his lack of durability though. He’s always been skillful, but every few fights, he gets absolutely murdered and they have to drag him out of the Octagon and onto a stretcher.
We haven’t seen that type of loss occur in a few fights now so it would honestly be hilarious if Elkins was the one to put him out. I don’t think it will happen but it’s not always the power threats that put Erosa out.
In the interim, Erosa is a skilled kickboxer with decent volume, and he’s a fine grappler who’s actually pulled off back-to-back guillotine wins. I was really shocked to see him submit Christian Rodriguez last time out. I also thought his win against Dawodu in 2022 was the best of his career.
Again, it’s worth reiterating Erosa has lost seven times in the UFC, and six of them have been brutal early knockouts. Padilla and Caceres were the last to pull that off, back in 2022 and 2023.
What makes this fight kind of funny is that although Elkins is very likely going to eat immediate shots and bleed all over the place, Erosa is the one who gets put unconscious often. Also, good luck locking up a guillotine against Elkins who is tough as nails.
Still, Erosa has speed and athletic advantages at this stage of his career. He’s a better kickboxer and lands 6.18 sig. strikes per minute which is a strong rate. He also absorbs 6.31 per minute but Elkins isn’t likely to keep pace with him, as Elkins only lands 3.40 per minute.
I actually think there’s still a decent chance Erosa can hurt Elkins, and/or club and sub him. Elkins just doesn’t possess a real power threat so outside of some variance, it’s tough for me to picture Elkins really winning those exchanges over the duration.
Elkins can wrestle though, and he lands 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. Erosa is fine defensively and defends at 58 percent, which isn’t phenomenal but he’s fine on the bottom and can threaten with chokes. He will likely threaten Elkins too. I don’t think he can submit Elkins but Erosa has proven a nasty guillotine so maybe he can.
That’s Elkins primary path to victory though. Getting on top. If he can do that and survive choke attempts, he will start to land ground-and-pound and threaten for chokes of his own. He’s better served against opponents with shitty cardio, which Erosa does not have, so I feel comfortable that Erosa can survive the duration.
Erosa may also land takedowns of his own. He’s not a great wrestler but a capable one and lands 1.69 per 15 minutes. Elkins defends at 56 percent. Erosa may be able to take his back but Elkins will try extremely hard to scramble free.
I don’t want to count Elkins out of this fight because of Erosa’s durability issues, plus, Elkins is a quality wrestler still. He has a chance.
I still think Erosa will be way faster and should get ahead on the feet, potentially hurting Elkins as well. Maybe he gives up a takedown or two but I think the most likely outcome is he can scramble free or threaten with chokes, and still win based on damage.
I’ll take Erosa and it may look dominant, but there are ways for this fight to be more competitive than the odds suggest.
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On DraftKings, Erosa is priced up to 9.3k and I feel like he’s a solid floor play but a more questionable ceiling play.
I do think Erosa can land a high volume of strikes here. He’s landed 100+ on several occasions and he has some KO equity that comes with it. He also has some submission equity. Erosa is +100 to win ITD which is OK.
In a win, Erosa just has a few different outcomes which makes the fight tricky. He could choose not to wrestle, and score something like 80 points in a decision. He could mix in wrestling and push 90 points in a decision.
He also has a high ceiling if he can win ITD though, given his pace. We’ve seen him score 111, 93, 112, 101, 131 and 104 in his recent wins, and some of those are decisions. So generally, Erosa scores well.
Elkins is just so tough to finish, which is why Erosa is only +100 ITD. He’s been finished twice since 2014. Still, he’s aging, takes a lot of damage, and Erosa is a decent finisher himself, so I’m willing to believe he can pull it off.
I don’t necessarily LOVE Erosa but I do like him, and I think he has a path to a ceiling. I’m willing to pay up for him at 9.3k and I think he’s a relatively strong option with safety on paper given his pacing.
He’s just not a guarantee to smash, and others like Hooper, Tulio and Silva in this range have ceilings as well, so it clearly makes sense to spread out your exposure. It’s pretty possible that Erosa gets squeezed at this price tag though, with those finishers surrounding him, so I don’t mind him as a pivot play when it’s applicable.
Elkins at 6.9k is viable but I probably won’t make a big investment.
Elkins has multiple paths to a big score. He needs to knock Erosa out, or he needs to land several takedowns, get on top and land a lot of ground strikes. Elkins has 90, 111 and 117 in his recent wins, and we’ve targeted him many times in the past.
This isn’t the worst matchup in the world, but it’s not a great one either. Elkins is only +625 to win ITD.
I’m probably going to just take a stand that Erosa wins, as there are many other underdogs in consideration for me and it’s hard to spread out to every fighter on the board. I don’t think Elkins is a clear fade though, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he even took a round with some top time. I would be a bit surprised if he actually KOd Erosa though.
Elkins is a fine low-end tournament target at 6.9k given his style and some of Erosa’s issues, but it’s hard to get much exposure at this point in his career against a faster, capable opponent.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Erosa by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Odds: Oleksiejczuk -202, Dumas +172
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Oleksiejczuk 9k, Dumas 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
After an extremely tough run of competition, Michal Oleksiejczuk will get a step down here and a chance to earn his first win since 2023 against Sedriques Dumas.
It was a rough 2024 for Oleksiejczuk, who went 0-3 inside the Octagon and dropped to 1-4 in his last five. Last time out, he was able to have some success against Shara Bullet, but unfortunately lost the optics against a really solid striker.
That’s been the story of Michal inside the UFC. He has a ton of success early but the big hole in his grappling tends to catch up to him. He got his arm snapped by Kevin Holland after hurting him on the feet, got clubbed and subbed by Michel Pereira and then was mauled by Caio Borralho on the mat after some competitive early minutes. Those are all really respectable losses, but all showcase that glaring gap in his skillset.
He is now 7-7-1 inside the UFC and the issue is, he has looked really solid in his wins, having earned six KO victories inside the Octagon, but he has conversely been submitted five times in his losses.
Now in 2025, “Hussar” looks to make a change as he has been training with the red hot Fighting Nerds camp in Brazil. The Nerds definitely have a solid striker in their camp, as Michel has shined when he can keep the fight on the feet. He averages 5.08 sig. strikes landed per minute and his pressure is most likely his best attribute.
He pushes his opponents to the cage and unloads with really technical and powerful boxing. He works the body very well and has the durability to get into firefights.
Although, as previously mentioned, his opponents are typically smart enough to know to take him down. He has a 48% TDD and has been submitted numerous times, so there is a path for those experienced in BJJ to beat Michal.
Overall, Michal is a solid pressure boxer with great power, volume and body work. Although he can be a threat on the feet for all 15 minutes, he struggles on the mat and can be kept at bay with an offensive skillset limited to boxing attacks. He will have to shore up that ground game and look to implement different layers to his game if he wants to dig out of the 1-4 run he is now on.
Sedriques Dumas has certainly had a mixed bag of results in his UFC tenure. Fresh off a violent submission on DWCS, Dumas was surrounded with some legal troubles and personal life complications. He followed that up with a debut loss to Josh Fremd in a really lacklustre performance, but has since rallied back to a 3-1 record since his debut.
He is a primary striker with solid range, decent power and good length for the division. He is content to strike from a distance and his tentativeness has led to some close decisions to Abu Azaitar and Denis Tiuliulin. He averages only 2.15 sig. strikes per minute and although having a 58% striking defense, has put on some rather disappointing performances.
Despite this, we do know he has a versatile game, with four KOs and two submissions on his record, along with his solid frame, there is some untapped potential. He does look to wrestle as he averages 1.31 TDs per 15 minutes, but does not progress through his positions well or inflict much damage on the ground.
He had 10:28 minutes of control against Brundage and really didn’t threaten much, landing only 17 significant strikes in total. He also had six minutes of control time against a fighter with a known ground deficiency in Tiuliulin, and yet it was Tiuliulin who went 2/2 on takedowns in round three.
All of this goes to show that although I do think Dumas has some promise, he has struggled to put it all together. A lack of volume and urgency does not look good when you’re fighting close with low-level fighters, and with both of his losses coming by finish, I worry he cannot absorb damage or deal with pressure well either as his cardio falls off.
The tools are there, and I do think he is dangerous with his range, pure athleticism and willingness to wrestle, but I want to see him put it all together before trusting him here, as the gaps in his game are clearly evident.
At the end of the day, we do have two untrustworthy fighters here who could not be any more different in their styles. Dumas is tentative and untested, but well-rounded enough to wrestle and outpoint low-level fighters. Whereas Michal is fighting a really solid level of opposition and has plenty of aggression, but is extremely one-dimensional and lacks the ground game to compete as he moves up the ranks.
Do you favor the patience and well-roundedness of Dumas? Or will Oleksiejczuk walk him down and finally have an opportunity to display his solid boxing? I lean with the latter here. Not only do I like the willingness to improve, as he shifted from training out of his garage to training with the Fighting Nerds, but I think he gets a step down in competition against a fighter who does not fare well with pressure.
I mean, Josh Fremd was having a ton of success with Dumas on the back foot and we rarely ever see Michal NOT moving forward. So with the aggression of Michal, I do think he has some clear success in the striking exchanges. He works the body and looks to break those that cannot keep up with him.
The question is moreso does Dumas get takedowns? Although he has the ability to and has in the past, it’s hard to say he will shoot and have success at a high clip. I mean, Tiuliulin took Dumas down three times, and even Abu Azaitar took him down twice. I think that with a 35% TD accuracy, Dumas will have a harder time taking down Michal than Borralho, Crute and other high level fighters he has fought, and on the feet the pressure is too much to ignore. Give me Michal to get back to his winning ways, stuffing takedowns and pressuring Dumas against the fence, where Michal shines and Dumas tends to shell up and slow down.
However with the untrustworthy nature of both fighters, I wouldn’t be running to parlay Michal here…
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On DraftKings, I actually think this is a solid fight to target that could be a bit overlooked.
Generally speaking, I think the public will prefer other options and so by default, I don’t expect either side to get a ton of love. I think nearly everyone priced above Oleksiejczuk will be more valued, as well as some fighters in the high 8k range like Krylov. So at 9k, Oleksiejczuk may be a real contrarian option, and honestly, he’s one of my favorites on the slate.
There isn’t a reason to feel safe with this one and Oleksiejczuk definitely has weaknesses, but he’s a solid, aggressive boxer with early knockout upside. In wins, he typically scores well and we’ve seen him top 100 on six different occasions, with bigger results such as 117, 124, 113 and 146.
Dumas may be tough enough to survive, or threaten with takedowns, but Dumas is a massive step down in competition from the opponents Oleksiejczuk has been facing recently. I actually think his first-level takedown defense is OK and even someone like Borralho needed six attempts and three takedowns landed before he could find real control.
So I like the path for Oleksiejczuk to keep the fight upright early. If he can, he’ll have some KO potential. At 9k, as a potential contrarian target, with an ITD line +105, this is a spot I’d like to be overweight.
I do think others in this range are valuable tournament targets as well so you don’t need to go crazy on this one. An extended fight could still lead to a poor score as Oleksiejczuk is somewhat limited offensively. However, I think he has early KO upside and I also think he has sneaky wrestling equity. This feels like a good spot to take some chances on, especially if he projects to be low owned.
Dumas at 7.2k is viable as well, and I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to be overweight to this fight as a whole.
While I think Oleksiejczuk wins and may honestly just bet him, he simply isn’t that trustworthy. He can be subbed and he can be hurt. I don’t really respect Dumas’ game but if Dumas wins, it could very well come with takedowns and a sub, or some random KO.
I think there is reasonable upside with Dumas just based on the matchup, and so for 7.2k, he’s viable. He’s +275 to win ITD in a fight that’s -210 to end ITD overall, and I consider him a reasonable secondary target.
With that said, I actually prefer both grapplers priced next to him in Mitchell and Raposo, and I don’t really want to make an investment in Dumas. With a medium sized or large portfolio I’d definitely include him, but I’m not looking to be overweight myself and I’d rather take a stance toward Oleksiejczuk.
It wouldn’t be wrong if you chose Dumas ahead of the other names I mentioned though, and coming in near the field seems reasonable. It’s a fight I like overall but I’m not in love with Dumas specifically.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Sumudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
Fight Odds: Sumudaerji -175, Raposo +150
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Sumudaerji 8.9k, Raposo 7.3k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random fight here in the flyweight division between Mitch Raposo and Sumudaerji.
Raposo fights out of Massachusetts with the Kattar and Font crew. He is 26 years old and is 9-2 professionally. He had some unsuccessful campaigns on TUF and the Contender Series. He then lost a split decision in a competitive low volume kickboxing fight to Andre Lima. Lima isn’t bad though so that loss doesn’t look terrible in hindsight.
Raposo isn’t bad. He actually comes from a wrestling background and was a 2-time Massachusetts state wrestling champion in high school. Massachusetts is not a strong wrestling state but it still shows he at least has a wrestling background.
You actually can see the wrestling in Raposo’s game in his early pro career too. I actually think he has a really strong double leg, and he has a decent top game and can pass guard and threaten with his submissions. I don’t think he is a great wrestler, but I actually do think his double leg is quite good. I consider him competent on the mat.
Lately though, Raposo has not been wrestling much and has kind of turned into a striker. His striking isn’t bad. He is pretty heavy handed and he has several one punch knockouts on his record. He can control range well. He lands good leg kicks and will spring in and land some punching combinations. He actually has a decent amount of speed.
The issue is Raposo is a bit low volume on the feet and doesn’t really put stamps on rounds unless his power is showing up. I actually do think his striking is decent though and he isn’t bad defensively. His striking has certainly improved.
Raposo is fine. He isn’t great anywhere. However, he is a decently well-rounded featherweight. He has some heavy hands and can strike a little bit, and he has a good double leg as well. He won’t rise through this division, but I do think he can compete against the lower end of this division.
Raposo will be taking on Sumudaerji. Sumudaerji is legitimately one of the worst grapplers in the UFC. It is very rare to see a fighter in the lower weight classes this bad on the mat. He is absolutely awful when he is grounded, and gives up advances of positions and can be pummeled with ground-and-pound or submitted easily.
I do think Sumudaerji has some decent first layer takedown defense though. He defends takedowns at 66 percent and can defend some tds here and there. When he gives up a takedown though, he is just awful on the mat. Don’t get fooled with him almost triangling Charles Johnson either. I thought he also looked terrible on the mat in this fight and most fighters would have stifled that and passed his guard easily.
Sumudaerji is a very dangerous striker though. He is tall at 5’8” which is huge for this division. He also fights long and controls range well, fighting out of the southpaw stance. He has a piston left hand and is very accurate and powerful with it. He also has a good kicking game. He can absolutely hurt people on the feet in this division. He lands 4.72 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.09 in return.
I do think Sumudaerji has suspect durability though. He has been hurt a few times in the UFC now and even Matt Schnell was hurting him badly on the feet.
As far as this matchup goes, this is extremely frustrating because I do not know what Raposo’s game plan will be. We have seen Raposo urgently wrestle in the past and then exclusively strike more recently. Your guess is as good as mine here on what Raposo’s approach will be.
I legitimately think Raposo will win if he wrestles here. I think his double leg is good, and I think he could really take advantage of Sumudaerji on the mat. Just because Raposo has that extra path to victory, I actually decided to pick him. I really think he can land those double legs and threaten on top, and maybe even finish Sumudaerji.
The issue is Raposo may just strike, which is a fight Sumudaerji can win. I still actually think the striking could be competitive though. Raposo actually hits hard and Sumudaerji has been hurt often, so a big shot for Raposo could land here. So Raposo is by no means screwed on the feet. I also think Raposo could slow the fight down on the feet and it could be a competitive, low volume kickboxing affair.
I still value the volume and length of Sumudaerji on the feet though, so I would pick him to win a decision based striking fight if it stayed there. This fight really comes down to the approach of Raposo though. If he wrestles, he is likely the outright favorite. If he doesn’t, Sumudaerji is likely the outright favorite. Be careful betting this fight as it is truly a game plan dependent fight.
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On DraftKings, I’m willing to take chances on Raposo at 7.3k.
It is buyer beware though, and if Raposo decides to mess around on the feet for an extended period of time, I do expect him to lose. Like Tim said though, he isn’t completely out of this even on the feet, but he will have problems dealing with the eight-inch reach advantage of Sumudaerji.
Regardless, Raposo can wrestle and he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He definitely has a path to victory there and I think he may be undervalued because he looked poor in a loss to Andre Lima, who is honestly a potential stud in this division.
At 7.3k, at a likely low public ownership, I like Raposo and I think he’s sneaky. He won’t project super well and he’s only +340 to win ITD, but a half-dead Matt Schnell submitted Sumudaerji on the mat, and Tim Elliott got him out of there quickly as well.
Raposo is not a lock but he does have a solid ceiling in a matchup like this, and the odds have been moving toward him this week. I’ll cap my exposure but I think being overweight on Raposo is the right call this week.
Sumudaerji at 8.9k is knockout dependent, and it’s fine if you want to take some shots.
However, Raposo has never lost by knockout and I don’t think that is an easy path either. Especially given the lower volume style and wrestling of Raposo, I think he’ll likely slow down the fight which will just limit Sumudaerji’s window to hit anyway.
Most likely, I just won’t be able to get much exposure here. Sumudaerji is a dangerous striker and if he’s contrarian, which I am expecting, he could make for an interesting target. But he’s just so boom or bust and I don’t think this is an exceptionally good matchup.
I’ll likely end up light on Sumudaerji myself at the 8.9k tag.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Raposo by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tresean Gore vs. Marco Tulio
Fight Odds: Tulio -393, Gore +307
Odds to Finish: -285
DraftKings Salaries: Tulio 9.2k, Gore 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a clash of powerful middleweights as Tresean Gore takes on the rising Marco Tulio in what should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts.
Tresean Gore made his debut on The Ultimate Fighter as a green prospect with a 3-0 record. We saw glimpses of potential with solid aggression and show-stopping power, but his debut was stifled by a disappointing loss to Bryan Battle in the finale. Gore then managed to one-up himself by earning the words no one wants on their record – a loss to Cody Brundage.
Gore then took some time off and has since rattled off back-to-back submission wins over Antonio Trocoli and Josh Fremd. Both of those wins were power guillotines, showing that Tresean still has the ability to stop the fight in an instant by a multitude of ways.
The issue with Gore was never that power or athleticism, but his lack of ability to blend it all together. He has been very low volume in his short career, averaging 3.0 sig. strikes landed per minute to his 5.88 absorbed. Although he can knock his opponent’s lights out, he has been too patient trying to find the perfect shot.
Additionally, he was able to be kept at range and was flashed KO’d by Brundage in a way that will be concerning for future matchups. On the mat, he seems to want to hunt the guillotine, which is great against lower-level opponents but not something you want to trust long term. Although I have to admit, the finish over Fremd was both impressive and terrifying as I thought he was going to rip Fremd’s head right off.
Despite this, we have seen him taken down and controlled, so the ground is another area where he can lose minutes. At the end of the day, Gore is a strong athlete with raw power and good finishing ability. But he struggles with output and minute winning, which coupled with defensive issues and a questionable chin, leaves a lot to be desired.
Marco Tulio makes his return to the Octagon this weekend after an impressive 1st round victory over Ihor Potieria in January.
Tulio, in addition to being the boyfriend of Norma Dumont, has developed some hype with his entertaining striking style. Product of a solid gym in Chute Boxe Diego Lima, he has delivered some impressive finishes including a devastating body shot on DWCS to earn his contract. That was actually his second shot on DWCS, after a lacklustre decision win the year prior which caused Dana to pass on Marco.
His style revolves around his flashy striking with his numerous spinning attacks and powerful hooks. Nine of his 13 pro wins do come by KO, and that is the primary style of fighting he brings. With solid size and length for the decision, he is capable of dictating range and producing solid output with over 5.0 sig. strikes landed per minute (in a small sample).
Despite the good things that can be said about his striking, he can be left open defensively, especially during his spinning attacks, which he will have to be cautious of at this level. His grappling has yet to be seen on the big stage but on the regional scene he has been able to wrestle offensively and considering his training camp, he should have his wits about him on the mat.
He is a black belt in BJJ and has some great training partners, so I think he should be able to hold his own in ground exchanges, despite the lack of initiative for him to take it there.
Overall, he is a solid, flashy striker on the feet with great power and solid volume. He can be left open defensively and has had a pretty one-dimensional gameplan, generally not mixing in any takedowns, but he has the tools to start to climb the ranks in this weight class regardless.
Overall this seems like a fight that could easily let us down. Yes, both guys hit hard and this could look like a car crash. But these guys can also be too patient, looking to hit that one big shot. Although Gore has solid power and a good guillotine, I think he is largely outmatched by the size, technicality and output of Tulio.
Tulio will throw more, be the fighter going forward and have the camp and grappling pedigree to stay safe if there are any ground exchanges. He is the fighter you have to choose to win as he has shown more urgency and has the better resume.
However, despite the advantages for Tulio on paper, I would be wary of the spinning attacks as he is often out of place and Gore could only need to land one shot to change the course of the fight. That being said, it’s a small path to victory for Gore and I still have to favor the skill set of Tulio. I think he forces answers from Gore’s chin, which I’m not sure is a great thing for Tresean. Give me Tulio to be the aggressor and land some big, flashy shots en route to a finish victory.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest in this fight as it’s -285 to end inside the distance.
I’m really not a huge fan of either guy, especially not Gore, but Gore has shown some finishing ability and I also don’t view Tulio as a polished prospect.
Tulio is going to be the more consistent striker in all likelihood, but I’m not sure he’s proven enough to be worthy of a heavy price tag. Regardless, I view him as a boom or bust finisher at 9.2k, but someone who can still be targeted given the matchup.
Gore still only has seven fights on his pro record and a lot of them have ended quickly. He’s only been KOd once but it seems reasonable to believe it will happen again. Tulio is -165 to win ITD which I believe is the strongest line on the entire slate.
He’s also coming off a 113-point score in his UFC debut which should attract attention, and he’s one option to pull ownership away from Silva.
I don’t see a reason to have a strong stance here but Tulio is fine. He’s powerful and Gore isn’t very good. Tulio can win by early KO. I’m not exceptionally confident in that outcome and you can still make the argument that others have higher ceilings.
I like his price point enough and he also makes for a fine pivot off Silva and Hooper who could also attract a lot of attention. I’m willing to play him mildly-moderately but I doubt I’d end up much overweight to the field as this range has many upside options.
Gore at 7k is viable as well.
It’s actually a bit hard to narrow down the underdog options this week and I like quite a few guys. Even the ones I don’t like as much I can make reasonable cases for.
Gore is pretty bad but he hits hard, and he has back-to-back guillotine chokes which seem to give fighters problems. Tulio on paper should be OK but he’s shown some issues in his regional tape. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Gore just had one big moment and ended the fight.
However, I don’t think I’m likely to get to him often. There are several other dogs I want to prioritize and even in this bottom tier, and I don’t view Gore as a clear stand out over Miller and Elkins. He has some ITD equity but is only +415.
Gore is just a low-end target. If you have a large enough portfolio, he’s viable for a small percentage and I do think he has some fight-ending upside. He’s an extremely limited fighter though and not someone I’ve really targeted much in the past. I’ll likely be quite light myself but there’s enough variance in fights like this to take a stab.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tulio by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan
Fight Odds: Cornolle -179, Cowan +153
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Cornolle 8.6k, Cowan 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a mess of a fight here in the curtain jerker between Hailey Cowan and Nora Cornolle.
Hailey Cowan made her UFC debut about two years ago against Jamey-Lyn Horth. She lost a competitive decision in a pretty low-level fight where they struck at range and at a low tempo, and occasionally clinched each other. Cowan chased some takedowns and landed a couple. It sounds like Cowan has had some injuries since that fight which has caused her to be on the sidelines.
I am not going to lie here. I don’t think Cowan is good. I think she had some hype after her Contender Series win because she is a decent looking girl and comes from an acrobat and gymnastic background or something. So she has some flash. However, she is very green and not very skilled.
Cowan is 7-3 professionally with most of her career taking place in LFA. The best part of her game is her physicality and clinch. She is definitely a strong girl and a decent athlete. She likes to use her big frame and size to clinch opponents up, and eventually get takedowns and finish fights on the mat or ride out top position.
The issue is her wrestling is not actually good. She can take down girls who are bad. However, just go watch the Leite and Franco fights. She grabs body locks and just frantically looks for trips, and just looks clueless at times when the trips aren’t working. As a wrestling coach myself, it was frustrating to watch.
She still can land takedowns purely off tenacity and size. However, I doubt she can actually consistently take down good grapplers. Horth is a bad wrestler and Cowan even struggled taking her down, and only managed to do so on caught kicks.
Cowan doesn’t look to strike much because her fights always end up in the clinch or on the mat. I have seen her land some decent combos here and there as she is a strong girl. However, she looks green to me on the feet (and in general) and doesn’t look particularly talented as a striker.
Cowan has also been taken down in other fights and has lost position on the mat. So she can end up on her back as well. She has also been randomly submitted twice which I don’t like and further suggests that she is very green.
Cowan is just whatever to me. She can likely outgrapple some weak grapplers by using her physicality and tenacity and that is about it. I don’t think she is particularly talented at all.
Cowan will be taking on Nora Cornolle who is now 2-1 in the UFC.
Cornolle comes from a kickboxing background and is 35 years old. Her kickboxing career isn’t extensive or decorated though and she lost plenty of those fights.
Cornolle is probably best as a damaging striker, mostly in the clinch. It is what she had success with in the regionals and what she has done to win her two UFC victories. She lands a lot of good knees to the body and other close quarter strikes from that position.
In Cornolle’s UFC debut, she generally damaged Joselyne Edwards from the clinch and landed some good shots from there. Over half of her significant strikes came from the clinch. She does look damaging in the clinch and definitely has some power in close quarters. I still thought Cornolle lost that fight and was gifted a home country decision. She was taken down five times by Edwards and controlled for nine minutes. Her defensive grappling is poor.
Cornolle then fought Melissa Mullins in her second UFC fight and knocked Mullins out in round two. You saw Cornolle thrive in the clinch in that fight as well and landed a knee to finish Mullins.
Cornolle most recently lost to Jacqueline Cavalcanti by getting out-skilled at range. It wasn’t a terrible performance though as Cavalcanti is decent.
I basically just consider Cornolle a dangerous clinch striker. I have way less faith in her distance striking game though, and I am not sure she is good at distance. I need to see more of her range game, but I have seen her hit and just look a little awkward in middle to long range striking distances.
She also is clearly a bad defensive grappler and will get exposed on the mat at some point. She can land takedowns herself a bit by using physicality but I don’t consider her a strong offensive grappler.
This is a mess man. Cowan will force the clinch and I do think she is probably stronger and can win the positional battle against the cage. Cornolle is also not very good so I could easily see Cowan mixing in a couple of takedowns, getting some top position and winning this fight. I nearly picked Cowan outright.
The issue is Cowan is just not a good takedown artist. I don’t have a ton of faith in her landing consistent takedowns in general. If Cowan fails to have extended top time in this matchup, she will probably just be in the clinch against Cornolle. Cowan is probably better positionally in the clinch but Cornolle actually lands damaging strikes in the clinch which the judges will probably favor more.
I just have a feeling we get a mess where they clinch a lot, Cowan maybe lands a couple of takedowns, but Cornolle lands more effective and damaging strikes. So this is a recipe for a close fight. I would pick Cowan if I think she could get 7+ minutes of top time or more. However, I think Cowan will probably have less than that which will probably not be enough to overcome the strikes that Cornolle will score with. This has the makings of a close fight written all over it though.
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On DraftKings, this fight is going to be ugly and I probably won’t target it much, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have a chance to score well.
Cornolle is just too expensive for my liking though at 8.6k, and she likely needs a knockout. She’s not going to throw strikes at a high volume, but it really wouldn’t be shocking to see her hurt Cowan. Cornolle is only +255 to win ITD though.
It’s just an impossible situation really if you are playing with a few lineups. I don’t know how you make the choice to invest in Cornolle very often and there are many other fighters I would rather target.
The bright side I guess is that with two five-round fights in the mid-range, we still have a good chance to get two big scores, and I think the optimal lineups are much likely to pay up to the high 8ks and 9k range where we’re much more likely to see finishes anyway.
So like, I guess I could see the possibility of the true optimal saving salary from the 9k range to Cornolle if she happens to score an early KO, but it feels somewhat unlikely you’d need the true optimal in that case. Maybe I’m just wishcasting.
Regardless, I’m not going to play Cornolle really and I’ll just have to sweat the first fight out on both sides. The most likely scenario is an extended fight with minimal wrestling, and a sub-90 point score in a win which I don’t think is good enough at 8.6k. If you have a large portfolio to play with, perhaps you can consider using a sprinkle of Cornolle as a contrarian target, but she’s not someone I will gravitate toward outside of the unique factor.
Cowan at 7.6k is a fine secondary target but she definitely won’t be a priority for me.
Even with multiple takedowns, she would have only scored 78 in a win over Horth and in her DWCS victory, Cowan would have only scored in the low 60s. Her upside just isn’t going to be strong on paper and she’s only +400 to win ITD.
The only real caveat is that she very likely needs takedowns and control here, which should give her an OK floor. I wouldn’t be shocked if she landed 3+ takedowns and scored in the 80s+ in a win, even if she never comes close to a finish. Cornolle can be hurt though.
It’s not the worst play in the world at 7.6k as she could win the fight, and if we don’t get many or any other dog wins, Cowan could flirt with the optimal. But I’d prefer nearly every other underdog priced around her and that’s going to limit my exposure drastically by default.
So, it’s just a gross, low-level WMMA fight to start the night that I probably won’t be invested in. Both sides have viability in some ways but I don’t think either fighter is likely to reach the optimal in a win, so both will be very low on the priority list individually.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cornolle by Decision (Confidence=Low)