UFC Fight Night: Garry vs. Prates (4/26/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates
Fight Odds: Garry -124, Prates +108
Odds to Finish: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Garry 8.5k, Prates 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
We have an awesome main event and title eliminator in the welterweight division between Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates.
Prates is now 4-0 in the UFC and 5-0 if you include his DWCS matchup, with all five wins coming by knockout. Coming out of the surging Fighting Nerds camp, Prates has been super effective with his striking, and has put on some brutal beatings against most opponents, many of whom were left lying unconscious on the mat.
His long frame, and precise, accurate combinations at distance are seemingly his best attributes. I wouldn’t label him an insane power striker or physical force, but his ability to land on the button has consistently translated into damage, and it feels like his offensively potent style will continue to lead him to success.
I do still worry that Prates falls more into the “moments” bucket of fighters than I would like for him to achieve success against the top of the welterweight division. He’s only landing 4.39 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.60 per minute, with a 48 percent defensive rate. Those aren’t good metrics.
Prates has dominated the damage side of the equation but he has not dominated the minutes. Even in these brutal knockout wins, Prates only outlanded Magny 10-9 at distance (in five minutes..). He outlanded Jingliang 55-41 but the bulk of those came in the final seconds of round two, where round one was essentially even at 25-26 in favor of Jingliang. Giles outlanded Prates 67-37 in his UFC debut and easily took round one, and Giles isn’t good.
The common theme among these fights is that despite the numbers, Prates was able to find kill shots and largely escape damage coming back his way. So his fights have looked fairly dominant and they’ve all ended in dominant fashion.
I simply worry that without these kill shots, considering the fairly low volume style and competitive numbers, Prates is potentially being overvalued as a striker and will struggle in more extended fights where he cannot find early damage.
Additionally, Prates has had some defensive grappling struggles on the regional scene, and I don’t think that’s a strong suit in his game.
We haven’t seen him tested a ton in the UFC. Mitch Ramirez took him down in round one on DWCS and controlled him for a short period of time. Prates has since defended all 11 takedowns coming his way in the UFC, including 7 from Neil Magny, but if I’m being honest, they’re all fairly basic and shots he should be defending.
I’m fairly certain that Prates will struggle on the mat if taken down, and I’m fairly certain his defensive wrestling will look weak against a strong offensive wrestler in front of him. Against mediocre competition, Prates’ defense is probably fine.
Overall, it just puts Prates into a questionable profile for me. I do think he’s a solid, effective striker with damage potential. I worry about the minutes and I worry about the defensive grappling.
I also worry about how he brags about smoking packs of cigarettes and although I’m not sure he’s an outright cardio liability, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slow down over 25 minutes.
Ian Machado Garry is coming off his first professional loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, and is 15-1 overall with eight wins in the UFC.
Garry has largely been tied to Conor McGregor as the next Irish star whose talents are just as good on the mic as they are in the cage (for better or worse). He’s been pushed by the promotion for this reason.
And to his credit, he has succeeded. Even with a loss to Rakhmonov, it was Garry who had the better finishing opportunities, and even had Rakhmonov in a RNC position late in the fight. The first four rounds of that matchup were fairly slow paced, and Rakhmonov had a couple of takedowns with some control time, but neither man landed many effective strikes.
In the past, Garry has had some questionable moments though that made it more difficult to label him as a true contender in the division. As two examples, he was badly hurt by both Jordan Williams and Song Kenan, who are both very poor strikers with a bit of power.
Again to his credit, he survived both and came back to win dominantly. But it’s pretty clear Garry can be hit and hurt, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a knockout loss come eventually.
Garry isn’t some physical force in comparison to a fighter like Rakhmonov, but he’s still a good athlete. He’s simply less likely to steamroll his opponent with physicality alone.
He’s also knocked down four of his nine opponents, which is good, but I wouldn’t say he has one-shot KO power.
Garry is a pretty strong minute winner. He works well in and out of range to limit how often he gets hit. He lands 4.72 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.82 per minute, with a 51 percent defensive rate.
His pure volume ceiling is also pretty decent. He’s topped out at 127 and 116 sig. strikes and looks fairly comfortable over three or even five rounds. He can kick at distance too and work multiple levels. He’s quick.
Garry is also a competent wrestler. He lands 0.74 takedowns per 15 minutes, so it hasn’t really been a means for his victories in the UFC, but he’s landed five takedowns in his past four fights. He has a black belt in Judo and is a capable submission grappler as well, though not an elite one.
To me, Garry profiles best as a round winner. He’s pretty sound at distance, and he throws strikes at a high rate. He’s usually going to be ahead on the numbers and he’s effective enough to occasionally hurt guys.
I do think he’ll struggle in general with power components, and I wouldn’t expect him to beat great wrestlers.
This makes for a super intriguing matchup, especially as a comparison to the Rakhmonov matchup which won’t play out in the same manner at all. While Rakhmonov wanted to force clinch and wrestling exchanges, Prates will want to keep the fight upright and force boxing exchanges.
For the most part, I think Garry will oblige him and I think Garry will be willing to stand and trade for a large portion of the fight. It’s going to give both men opportunities, but especially Prates who profiles as the better knockout artist.
As we’ve seen Garry badly hurt in the UFC multiple times, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Prates land something big and hurt him as well. However, I do wonder (out loud) if that’s the only way Prates wins this fight.
Looking at the metrics, Garry is far superior. I don’t think the fight will play out in that fashion but Garry lands strikes at a higher rate, and absorbs far less. He’s also shown more volume upside in total and he has much more proven cardio than Prates.
Garry also profiles as the much better grappler in this matchup which makes things interesting because he doesn’t always pursue takedowns. I wouldn’t label him an elite wrestler, but he landed two takedowns on MVP when he needed to, and he’ll absolutely be the better submission grappler here.
It simply gives Garry more paths to win the fight. Prates can potentially knock him out early, and potentially win three striking rounds, but Garry is a strong, striking based round winner with some pop of his own, and the more likely fighter to have success on paper if the fight extends. Plus, Garry can take Prates down and threaten for a submission as well, though I don’t think that’s going to be an easy outcome, I think he has advantages on the mat while Prates is at a clear disadvantage.
The whole cigarettes thing bugs me too. I just watched Garry go five rounds with Rakhmonov and his best round was round five. Prates hasn’t entered the third round since 2019. Prates has also been TKOd twice and submitted three times on the regionals, so his defense and cardio has always been questionable.
To me, this is a spot you have to favor Garry. I don’t think he should be a massive favorite, but at best, Prates is going to get a stand-up affair in which Garry can absolutely compete with him. Prates may have more one-shot ability and he may land something huge early, but Garry is going to be active, and will push him both on the feet and on the mat.
Over five rounds, I just have to favor the more proven round winner and more well-rounded fighter, which is Garry.
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On DraftKings, Garry is priced at 8.5k which is interesting because Prates is the more popular fighter in general and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the ownership reflect that with Prates at 7.7k.
Plus, Prates’ box scores are way better. Prates has put up 122, 112, 106 and 95 in his four UFC wins. He’s still undefeated and many don’t like Garry. I definitely expect Prates to be very popular and among the most popular fighters on the entire slate.
Garry is coming off the loss, and his past wins have scored 70, 60 and 85. He also has 110, 106, 95, 62 and 109 but you have to scroll a bit to see them.
Regardless, with a five-round fight, both sides are going to be very viable.
Prates at 7.7k is the more likely of the two to be optimal in a win, on paper at least, given his price tag and ability to inflict early damage. He will be more correlated to a knockout and has the better ITD line of the two at +145 ITD.
It would be a major concern to see the fight extend though, because Prates doesn’t have many ways to score. He won’t be landing many or any takedowns, and he could be controlled for minutes at a time himself.
Garry also just doesn’t absorb many strikes. Rakhmonov only landed 37 in five rounds, though Gabe Green landed 90 in 15 minutes in 2022. I could see Prates landing 100-120 sig. strikes over 25 minutes, but in a decision, that would only be 70-80 points..
Simply put, if Prates isn’t scoring a knockout, I’m not sure how he’s scoring at all. But you can bet on, or hope that if he wins, it does come ITD given his style and given that Garry has been hurt before. I think Prates is a reasonable target in general given his knockout upside and price tag.
If I had to choose though, it’s going to be underweight on Prates. In fact, I may just be forced into it with the matchup and slate dynamics. I just don’t know if his chances of knocking Garry out early are that high, and if the fight extends, he’s at a real risk to score below 85 points, even in a win.
At chalk, in a tough matchup to score on paper, I’m not in love with playing Prates and I probably will aim to be underweight to the field myself. Prates fits more easily into constructions at his price point though, which I think will contribute to him being extra chalky. I understand if you like Prates more than me, or want to take a different approach than me, and coming in near the field is a totally reasonable and safe strategy as well.
Garry at 8.5k doesn’t have as strong of a chance to win ITD at +180, but it’s still reasonable on paper and Prates has been finished both on the feet and on the mat outside of the UFC.
Garry isn’t the most consistent fighter in the world so he makes me a bit nervous too if the fight extends. My gut says he will be forced into a much higher paced affair though than in some previous fights, so we should see his volume numbers rise. More importantly, if he can bank 2-3 takedowns, Garry has real control upside and an additional path to finishing.
It may not work out this way but my gut says Garry will have advantages in the championship rounds too. If the fight is somewhat high paced early, I think Garry could potentially pour on the offense late and it’s just another path to scoring well overall.
However, if Garry fails to wrestle, and fails to win ITD, his ceiling is in question too. Even with 120-140 sig. strikes, Garry would only score 80-90 points, and clearly, he may not even reach numbers that high. 100-120 sig. strikes would put him in real danger of missing the optimal, especially on a 14 fight slate.
I honestly just like the offensive production more for Garry than I do for Prates. He has more volume upside on paper and more wrestling equity. He still has some KO/SUB equity too. I hope he’s far less popular than Prates but I’m guessing they’ll be split somewhat evenly based on the moneyline.
I’m likely going to end up with moderate exposure to Garry by default. I’m not super confident he’ll win but the process leads me toward picking him and even at 8.5k, he has a somewhat safe floor in a win with solid upside. It still wouldn’t be that crazy to fade the main event in some spots on a 14-fight slate in case we see an extended, competitive fight that reaches the scorecards.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Garry by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang
Fight Odds: Zhang -462, Smith +350
Odds to Finish: -550
DraftKings Salaries: Zhang 9.6k, Mingyang 6.6k
Weight Class: 205
I’m excited to see Zhang Mingyang continue his monstrous run of early knockouts, but he has a formidable opponent in front of him in Anthony Smith this weekend.
Zhang is 18-6 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned 12 wins by TKO and six by submission. If you’re keeping count, that means he’s never won by decision.
He’s also only lost once by decision, but he’s been KOd three times and submitted twice.
Zhang is the top LHW prospect out of China and I think he’s a decent athlete and competitor, but despite his run of success, it’s still difficult to believe he’ll amount to much more than a kill or be killed type at the UFC level.
He’s been fighting as a pro since 2014, and he’s obviously accrued a lot of experience in that time, with the bulk of his losses coming early in his career. He hasn’t lost since 2019.
But in that time, he was finished quickly on several occasions. Askar Mozharov actually knocked him out in round one in 2018.
Zhang is now on an 11-fight win streak, with all 11 of his wins having ended in round one lol. Most of them have come against horrible competition on the Chinese regional scene too, and his UFC competition has been mediocre at best.
He made his UFC debut against Brendson Ribeiro, and was able to brutally knock him out in the first round as well, after a few fun early exchanges. He also fought in Road to the UFC and won by KO in round one against Tokkos, where Zhang was actually the +450 dog.
Most recently, Zhang knocked out Ozzy Diaz in two minutes last November.
Overall, I think his skills are decent. Zhang is an adequate boxer I would say. He moves well and carries some speed in his feet and in his hands.
I originally thought he’d be more willing to grapple, as many of his regional TKOs have come from ground-and-pound, and I still think that’s one of his stronger attributes. I saw some of his early fights where Zhang landed a quick takedown and pounded out his opponent, and I felt like those takedowns could translate to a higher level of competition.
But it’s just tough to say for sure. It’s impossible to trust him outside of round one, but he doesn’t necessarily profile as the type who would be exhausted after a few minutes. I haven’t seen him exhausted really, just knocked out cold.
Zhang does some training out of the PI in China, but he also trains at Xtreme Couture in Vegas with Sean Strickland and others, and Magomed Ankalaev in the past which I like.
Ultimately, he’s a young, kill or be killed fighter and that should be the expectation for now. But he’s starting to take real steps up in competition and will likely be pushed into the rankings sooner rather than later. I’m highly curious to see whether he can evolve past his current profile.
Anthony Smith is a good test for him. Smith is a longtime veteran of the sport and his best days are long behind him.
I’ve never been a fan of Smith from a technical standpoint and usually pick him to lose, but there’s no denying he’s tough as hell and that toughness has always been his best attribute.
Smith can be beaten to a pulp, and survive and come back to win, and that was his M.O. for a long time. He has several RD 3/4 finishes in his career, including ones over Volkan Oezdemir and Alexander Gustafsson.
Even as recently as 2024, Smith was still showing that veteran toughness and was able to submit Vitor Petrino who many considered a hot prospect in the division.
Smith is just too old and too slow for me to have any faith in him, ever, and apparently this is his retirement fight which is usually not the best sign. He lands 3.20 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 4.88 per minute, defending strikes at a career rate of 45 percent which is awful. He lands only 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends them at 50 percent which is also bad.
These metrics are indicative of a bad fighter, and largely, Smith is a bad fighter. He gets hit far more often than he lands strikes. He cannot really wrestle. His power is mediocre and he’s slow as mud.
His skill set comes in survivability. Since he entered the UFC (in his second stint) in 2016, Smith has fought 23 times and he’s never been finished in RD 1. He’s been knocked down a bunch of times in that span, and even as recently as his last fight against Dominick Reyes, he was still beaten to a pulp and finished in RD 2.
But Smith will do his best to survive. He will take damage and he won’t quit.
This fight is obviously intriguing because Zhang has shown zero ability to fight outside of RD 1. Can he finish Smith in RD 1? Yes I believe he can. Can he fight into RD 2 and possibly RD 3? I actually do believe he can.
But there’s no way to be sure. And if Zhang hurts Smith and does some damage in RD 1, and Smith is still alive and fighting back in RD 2, I don’t know how you can be confident Zhang is still going to win. Especially as Zhang has been knocked out on multiple occasions too, he probably has durability question marks himself.
Smith could possibly hurt Zhang just by variance alone. He probably won’t have success wrestling but Smith is a black belt in BJJ and a good submission grappler. If he ever gets on top of Zhang and Zhang is tired, Smith can finish there too. Smith can go three rounds.
I just don’t know if Zhang can.
I do think Zhang has immense athletic advantages over Smith at this stage of his career, and he probably should hurt Smith early in the fight. I think an early finish is pretty likely and even if Smith survives round one, I do think Zhang can continue beating on him and finish the fight in round two.
Smith is just a career vet who has been through the ringer many times. Been beaten and come back many times. So if Zhang ever does get very tired, I think Smith is absolutely live to come back and hurt him, or submit him. I’m picking Zhang though.
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On DraftKings, Zhang is priced up to 9.6k and his upside will be highly correlated to an early knockout.
He has one of the best ITD lines on the slate at -350, so that early finish is extremely likely, but it still doesn’t guarantee an optimal score at this price tag. In his two UFC wins, Zhang has put up 107 and 107 which is honestly not that great if you’re looking for a top-end ceiling.
This is a tough call here because A) you just don’t ever have to pay up this far at a high percentage because of the cost. B) There are other fighters in this price tier who can also finish the fight and C) If the fight happens to extend, Zhang likely busts.
So there’s arguably a lot more risk than you’d think of playing lots of Zhang, especially if he cannot reach 110 points. He obviously CAN reach that score but if he wins by KO in 1-2 minutes, he probably won’t land enough volume to top that mark.
I do like Zhang and I want exposure to him on this slate due to the potential for a quick KO. But I do not think he’s a lock from a fantasy perspective at this cost, simply due to his questionable top-end ceiling, price tag and risk of Smith surviving past a round.
However, Amorim and Aliskerov are also super costly, and have similar price/upside risks, so there’s not a clear stand out one way or the other. If you wanted to ultimately prioritize Zhang outright, that would be OK. I just will likely fall into the category of spreading out exposure myself.
Smith at 6.6k shouldn’t be a high percentage play but I do think he should be in play if you have a moderate sized portfolio.
I think I laid out the reasons why he’s viable in the breakdown, but Smith has not been finished in RD 1 in 10 years, and Zhang never wins outside of RD 1. So something has to give here, and if Smith survives, he has real finishing equity in a comeback type of fight.
With that said, I still don’t love him. I still think he gets beaten on early, and he just doesn’t produce a whole lot of offense anyway. He’s a big dog and only +625 to win ITD.
But he’s cheap and should carry lots of leverage against Zhang. He’s a fine dart throw, large-field tournament target for a small percentage and one that I would prefer to be in your portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zhang by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama
Fight Odds: Onama -187, Chikadze +160
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Onama 8.8k, Chikadze 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger on our hands here between battle tested veterans David Onama and Giga Chikadze.
I mostly consider Onama an explosive striker. In the UFC, he has been in some wars. He lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.07 in return. He has shown that he can throw strikes aggressively and hurt guys at this level. He knocked Gabriel Benitez dead back in 2022. He also knocked out Gabriel Santos in a back and forth war. He can continue to hurt guys at this level.
There are plenty of concerns with Onama though. First, Onama is still very green as a striker and just in general. He can get hit a lot and he doesn’t strike nearly as well when pressured or going backwards. He is tough though and I consider him to be durable. He will fight through adversity and fight for your money. The Santos fight showed that.
Furthermore, Onama gassed BADLY vs. Landwehr. It was kind of strange as Onama never showed cardio issues before. He beat Landwehr up early and then just got broken by Landwehr’s pace. Maybe Onama got hurt or something to cause him to collapse. I tend to think it was an outlier as his gas tank looked fine in his wins against Gabriel Santos, Jonathan Pearce, and Roberto Romero. I will monitor his cardio going forward though.
Another concern with Onama is his defensive grappling. He only defends takedowns at 52 percent. Onama’s defensive grappling isn’t terrible and he is very physical, so he is able to escape and reverse positions. However, he can get taken down, controlled, and put in some tough positions. I really do think he is difficult to consistently keep down though as he is just so physical and athletic and capable of exploding. He also looks to be improving his defensive wrestling.
Onama can offensively wrestle a bit. He only lands 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he is physical and capable of getting top position. He actually submitted Garrett Armfield as well.
I just consider Onama a dangerous and athletic fighter. He can fight in all areas and is tough and dangerous.
Onama will be taking on Giga Chikadze. Chikadze is mostly a kickboxer, and he definitely has some skills. He lands 3.92 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.50 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. He is a technical kickboxer coming from a kickboxing background. He has a wide array of kicks and punches and I consider him dangerous. He definitely has KO power and round winning upside in general.
Chikadze does have some flaws though. He isn’t much of a wrestler and only lands 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. So wrestling isn’t really a path to victory for him.
Furthermore, Chikadze is a suspect defensive wrestler. I do think his first layer TDD is decent and has improved and he defends takedowns at a respectable 70 percent. However, he hasn’t faced many grapplers, and we have seen him submitted on the Contender Series, and dominated in round three by Jamall Emmers. I do think above-average grapplers will beat him on the mat.
Lastly, Chikadze’s cardio isn’t great. He slows down. I don’t think it is as big of a deal in three round fights compared to five round fights. However, he usually is less effective towards the end of three-rounders as well.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a close one. On the feet, I really just think either guy can win it. I think both guys are fully capable of hurting one another.
I do think Chikadze is more skilled and better defensively as a striker. He really may cause Onama issues and evade him for a bit. Chikadze can surely tag Onama at times. However, I do think Onama is more dangerous in close quarters and is the more athletic and powerful fighter. I really just think it’s going to be a back and forth war. This fight has variance written all over it with both guys landing big shots.
Although not highly likely, I do think Onama could have some wrestling success. He is a better grappler than Chikadze and I wouldn’t be that surprised if he got on top of Chikadze and went to work. Onama isn’t a super skilled takedown guy though so I don’t fully trust that outcome. However, in various versions of this fight, I do think there are some where Onama has some ground success.
This is a fun one man. I think Onama has more paths to victory so I will pick him. However, we probably just get a high-variance striking fight so I am not too confident overall.
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On DraftKings, I am somewhat interested in this fight as I think the winner could score a KO, but it’s still a tricky matchup.
I really want to pick Chikadze outright. He’s a better technical striker than Onama and Onama was just badly hurt by Romero who isn’t known for power. Chikadze can definitely hurt him.
However, Chikadze hasn’t fought in a year and in that last fight against Arnold Allen, he landed 38 sig. strikes in a slow paced decision. He barely outlanded Alex Caceres too. I just kind of worry about his pacing right now and he may be too limited to damage.
At the same time, Onama is not likely to just bullrush Chikadze and have success, and if anything, that could get him caught. Chikadze has much better defense than Onama and absorbs far fewer strikes. But Onama has more pacing upside in general and is more athletic.
At 7.4k, Chikadze is cheap enough to take chances on for sure.
The risk, outside of losing, is that he slows the pace down dramatically and lands like 60 sig. strikes in a decision. That is possible, and it would score very poorly. We’ve seen weak scores from him in the past and he’s scored in the 50s in decisions twice. So there’s no guarantee of upside.
At the same time, he does have KO equity in my personal opinion. He’s only +425 to win ITD so it’s not a super likely outcome, but hopefully he won’t be too popular as well. Ideally, Chikadze could be used as a sneaky dog target and pivot off some more popular options.
So in that sense, I quite like him. He is a bit boom or bust but is a solid semi-contrarian target who is gaining a bit of line value currently. I wouldn’t go too crazy overweight but this is a fight I’d like to be on for damage equity and I think Chikadze has a reasonable shot at an upset for the price.
Onama at 8.8k is viable but I like him a lot less at this price tag.
He just needs a knockout. Yes he’s a dangerous guy but Chikadze is not an easy matchup nor an easy fighter to knock out. He’s a striking specialist.
Chikadze was knocked down once by Calvin Kattar in a main event in 2022, and was beaten up kind of badly there. Obviously Onama could put him away.
But the other issue is that Chikadze isn’t likely to absorb a ton of strikes. He has never absorbed more than 60 distance strikes in a three-round fight. So Onama’s best path to score may not even be at distance since Chikadze doesn’t yield much offense there.
Outside of a high-variance knockout, Onama will likely need to wrestle to really put up a big score. I’m unsure if he’s capable of it. I think if he were to get in top position with any consistency, he could certainly land big shots and maybe TKO Chikadze. But he’s not a very proactive wrestler and it would be hard to project him for more than one takedown.
I don’t completely hate Onama. He’s +200 to win ITD which is OK and he fits in well enough for the price tag. He has real power in his hands and perhaps a sneaky ground advantage. But I don’t consider this an easy matchup and without a finish, I highly doubt Onama can score enough to contend for the optimal.
It’s not a terrible idea to just have exposure to this fight as a whole, especially if you’re on Chikadze already. But I consider Onama more of a secondary/price target and I feel much more comfortable with some of the fighters’ ceiling chances who are priced above him.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Onama by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov
Fight Odds: Pereira -144, Magomedov +125
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.6k, Magomedov 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Michel Pereira’s entering his 7th year on the roster and his 5th consecutive fight at 185 lbs. since moving up back in 2023. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column after having his 8-fight win streak snapped in October by Fluffy Hernandez – he’s 9-3 in the UFC and 31-12 as a pro. Abus Magomedov’s entering his 4th year on the roster where he’s been up and down through his early promotional run, but is currently riding a 2-fight win streak – he’s 3-2 in the UFC and 27-6-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Pereira is a guy I’ve done a bit of a 180 on over the years in certain capacities. He came into the UFC with a bang, literally, flatlining Danny Roberts.
He’s got an unorthodox and flashy striking style in what he does as he’ll leap off the cage, throw capoeira kicks and jumping stuff as well. So, he’s a bit of a showman at points but he has dialed that back a bit in recent years.
In general, he’s very athletic, fast, powerful and is higher volume, landing 4.5 SLpM at 53% and 5.1 DLpM at 50% — however, he’s had a couple slower paced fights in there as well.
It’s his stance switching and outside blitz striking nature that has given opponents significant troubles in tracking him down with consistency minute to minute.
In that, he moves well which has allowed him to be evasive – he eats 4.2 SApM at 52% which aren’t great significant metrics but he only eats 3.9 DApM at 60% which are better than the divisional averages.
He’s also only been KO’d twice through 43 pro fights, which is a testament to his numbers and durability – he’s also fought a handful of larger hitters in the UFC in Williams, Price, Fialho, Ponz and Oleksiejczuk – the last one being a positional TKO against Hernandez.
However, given his explosive nature, he tends to slow down around the halfway mark of his fights where his actions can become more labored (despite fighting through it). As a result, he’s dropped a round in all four of his decision wins in the UFC.
Overall, Pereira’s a unique striker that won’t be an easy out but has his own issues.
Magomedov is a good sized 185er standing 6’2” with a 78” reach.
Despite coming from a wrestling background, he’s a Russian that has preferred to stand and strike for most of his career. He primarily likes to operate in the mid-range to pressure game where he’ll work at a more methodical pace.
His main core competencies are his straight shots and body kicks where he’s found healthy amounts of success throughout his pro career. He’s also a rare Russian that possesses knockout power as well, with 14 of his 27 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
With all those attributes, he still has elements of a Russian coaster in terms of being able to limit damage and exchanges coming back his way to a degree.
However, his defense isn’t as good as the traditional Russian coasters, more specifically when he’s put on the back foot. He got clipped in his last loss pre-UFC by Taylor 30 seconds into the 2018 PFL Championship.
The main knock I would have on him defensively is that he can overextend on shots when coming in – but exchange to exchange at range, he’s largely solid.
But even in fighting a long kickboxer in Sadibou Sy, Sy still had troubles getting much off on him.
Now fighting in the UFC, he had a strong start against Strickland but gassed himself out and got finished. He then had a slower paced fight with Borralho that was competitive through the early going, but he slowed down again where Borralho really started to pick up on his timing and also hurt Magomedov badly in the 3rd round despite not finishing.
Not much happened in the Alves fight from a striking perspective. Most recently, he controlled early exchanges against Ferreira, winning roughly the first six minutes, but he got clipped in round two – he survived but also slowed down and the total distance strike counts were tied at 26-26 in a fight that was on the feet for 10 minutes.
Overall, with our more recent sample and against a better brand of competition, I think it’s fair to say that Magomedov is a “driver’s seat” striker. As noted, he’s still a dangerous guy and relatively technical but if guys aren’t going to give him an entirely pretty, slow paced fight, he’s going to have some struggles at this level – in addition to having bigger durability concerns with him now having been hurt significantly in three of his five UFC fights.
How it plays out: Off the top, Magomedov will realize a 1” height and 5” reach advantage. But I ultimately favor Pereira on the feet for a handful of reasons. First, his distance pacing has been far more consistent as a guy who’s landed upwards and over 100 significant strikes in multiple fights, whereas Magomedov is a guy that probably has a 60 significant strike ceiling based on his style. Secondly, Pereira is going to realize a speed advantage – that’s not to say I think Magomedov is slow but I do think there is a difference in that department. Lastly, he’s the far more durable guy so while both guys can crack, I trust Pereira’s chin to hold up more than I do Magomedov. From an additional side point, they’ll be in the 30’ cage on Saturday so it’ll give Pereira more room to operate from the outside and make it more difficult for Magomedov to cut him off. My primary concern for Pereira is if this turns into the Khaos Williams fight where Magomedov’s power deters Pereira’s volume. Nonetheless, Pereira has a much higher ceiling of the two in my opinion.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Pereira isn’t a volume wrestler, but he has mixed wrestling into many fights, landing 1.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 52%. However, he has struggled with ground control – roughly 50 seconds of control time per TD.
But he’s jumped on necks a handful of times and submitted Imadaev, had a deep choke locked in at the end of the 2nd vs Williams but the time in the round ran out, had few against Price, got on top of Oleksiejczuk after hurting him to the body to finish with an RNC and more recently hurt Potieria standing to then lock up a standing guillotine.
Despite his last two wins coming via submission, he only has eight submission wins in his 31 pro victories so “process grappling” isn’t really a focal point of his game, but he is capable if given the proper openings.
He officially has 76% TDD but he looked pretty bad on bottom against Connelly when there, but that’s also largely attributed to him completely death gassing and fighting like a moron. Ponz took him down once but wasn’t able to do much with it.
In general, he does a good job of digging underhooks and working off the cage.
However, it needs to be noted that he hasn’t fought many base wrestlers outside of an old Sanchez and Petrovski who he killed in a minute before any TDs were shot.
But he’s coming off getting put through the spin cycle by Hernandez where he was taken down 10 times, controlled for nearly 16 minutes and was eventually TKO’d in the 5th round. In fairness, Hernandez has done this to virtually every one of his past opponents and he attempted 29 TDs in the fight – logically the final result wasn’t shocking but you have to give Pereira some credit in the sense that he stuffed 19 TDs and put up a lot of resistance early.
Overall, he’s a competent wrestler/grappler despite it not being his base but you can’t anticipate a ton of ground time in his fights in the aggregate.
Magomedov is actually a wrestler by base however, he’s not a guy that’s been very consistent to wrestle over his career.
But in the times he has, he’s looked largely strong with good entries and control capabilities – his wrestling helped him earn wins back in the PFL to get to the championship over Umalatov and Sy.
He’s also shown a really nasty guillotine with a tight squeeze if guys get sloppy against the fence.
But he has been more proactive in his last couple fights against Alves, going 6/7 on TDs racking up 12 minutes of control, and going 4/8 on Ferreira getting 3.5 minutes of control and ultimately submitting him late.
He hasn’t been shot on all that much but has shown a good ability to down block, use over hooks and dig underhooks.
He was submitted in his first two pro losses but we’re also going back a decade when he was just a kid so it’s not something I take much from.
But Borralho got on top of him late in that fight and took his back, though Magomedov held on. Outside of that, he’s been able to work up to the feet quickly on every instance he’s been on the bottom.
Overall, our floor sample of Magomedov is still semi-smaller both offensively and defensively, but he’s shown to be capable. Outside of the Alves fight though, he traditionally only looks to wrestle when he becomes more labored or when he starts getting tagged on the feet – he kind of uses it as a crutch.
How it plays out: This is where I see more merit to the Magomedov side as this isn’t a matchup Pereira projects to wrestle in and even if he does, I don’t think he’ll realize much success. Given the last fight for Pereira against Hernandez, I’d assume it would be in the game plan for Magomedov to wrestle here but once again, I still don’t trust him to be diving on legs necessarily and he sure as shit doesn’t have the gas to shoot 29 TDs like Hernandez did. Pereira’s TDD is still pretty decent though so I don’t think Magomedov is going to have an easy time grounding Pereira, especially early in the fight. Additionally, the last couple fights that Magomedov has realized stronger ground success in have come in the small cage – now in the big cage coupled with Pereira’s movement patterns, I see it being more difficult for him to track Pereira down. But I do think there’s more reactionary TD merit for Magomedov off of Pereira’s explosive actions.
Solid booking. While I have some concern with the wrestling threat from Magomedov, I ultimately favor Pereira moderately because of his first layer TDD, volume, footwork, durability and critical hit upside.
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On DraftKings, this is an interesting fight and one of the ones I’m most excited to watch.
Perreira will largely fall into the boom or bust category at 8.6k, but I do think he’s in play. He’s accrued a handful of early finishes and I do think he holds advantages over Magomedov for the same reasons Luke laid out.
Magomedov has been hurt badly in three fights already in the UFC and I would not be shocked to see him hurt again here. Pereira is +130 to win ITD which is actually a better line than I would expect. Regardless, it shows some finishing upside.
Without the finish, Pereira won’t get there. He won’t be wrestling and I don’t see him scoring enough volume numbers here to matter at 8.6k. He simply needs a knockout and more often than not, these types of plays don’t work out.
I’m willing to use him as a secondary target though. It’s hard to be extremely confident but I do think Pereira has some KO equity and at 8.6k, he saves salary off the top end. A definite risk of busting in an extended fight but in mid-range based lineups I don’t mind mixing in Pereira.
Magomedov at 7.6k is a solid underdog target though I am going to pick against him.
He’s slower paced than Pereira, but in that, he’ll need damage or wrestling to win. More than likely it will come in the form of wrestling and I’d guess he’ll need a few takedowns and several minutes of control to win. He could potentially find a finish too at +230 ITD.
Magomedov is a decent fighter – and at 7.6k – it’s hard to pass him up. I don’t love his cardio and I think he’ll fall behind in striking exchanges. I’m not very excited to target him and my guess at this point is that he’ll end up chalky, so if that’s the case, I wouldn’t mind coming in slightly underweight.
However, Pereira just got taken down 10 times and it seems pretty plausible that Magomedov could have some success. He’d be a risky fade for that reason at this price. Coming in near the field feels like a reasonable strategy in general, given the matchup dynamics and price point.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
Fight Odds: Brown -267, Dalby +220
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Brown 8.9k, Dalby 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun middle class fight here as Randy Brown will take on Nicolas Dalby this weekend. I am surprised these guys have never fought before as they have several common opponents and have been in the middle class of this division for years.
Brown lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 in return. That is actually pretty decent considering his competition has been quite solid. I think Brown is a pretty good striker honestly. He can land long punches and kicks. He is athletic and controls range with his frame. I do worry about his leg kick defense though. He has been BATTERED to the legs in many fights and even in fights that he has won. He just doesn’t know how to check leg kicks.
Brown’s main strength is his striking but he is also an okay submission grappler. He lands 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 73 percent. I don’t consider him a great control grappler or anything, but he is competent and actually sneakily has three submission wins in the UFC. So it is not a path to victory to completely rule out for him.
I think Brown is a fine fighter. He can win fights on the feet and is a competent enough grappler where he can minimize the grappling success of others.
Brown will be taking on Nicolas Dalby. Nicolas Dalby is a tough guy. I think that is his greatest strength. He is hard to put away and will come forward for a hard 15 minutes. He has outlasted opponents multiple times. He had a recent, monster come-from-behind win against Gabriel Bonfim where he was a huge underdog. He was taken down and beaten up, but survived and then beat the crap out of Bonfim. He later lost a split decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov in a very competitive fight where he got taken down five times.
Dalby isn’t particularly skilled in any area of the sport but he is a generalist and can fight anywhere. He is an okay striker. He lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.52 in return.
Dalby won’t overwhelm with pure volume but he has generally fought solid competition and has fought well. He will come forward and make opponents uncomfortable and throw hands. He can simply gas fighters out.
Dalby also lands 1.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and can occasionally land takedowns and rough opponents up on the floor with ground-and-pound. He defends takedowns at 58 percent and can be taken down though.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is just a scrappy competitive fight. I think Brown is probably more likely to get grappling going. However, I do think Dalby will make him work and get back to his feet. A couple of takedowns do seem reasonable for Brown though which could be a difference maker in a close fight.
These guys will probably strike for extended stretches. I think it is close. I do think Brown is more athletic and longer. He also hits harder on a strike per strike basis. So I am leaning Brown mildly in this fight.
Dalby is a tough, durable dude though and he will march Brown down for 15 minutes. Dalby could maybe land something big or just compete in general off aggression, cardio, and volume.
I think we get a close competitive decision here where Brown may just edge it out by being a little more athletic and more likely to land a takedown or two.
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On DraftKings, this doesn’t set up as the best matchup on paper as it’s -230 to go the distance.
Brown is priced up to 8.9k and he’ll probably need a finish. He’s not an incredible volume striker and although he has some power, Dalby is tough to knock out. Dalby actually has been knocked down four times in the UFC, but not since 2020, and he actually didn’t lose any of those fights by knockout.
Still, I think it does show Dalby can be hurt from time to time. Brown will be able to land some shots and has some KO equity, but it’s not the simplest path and Brown is only +200 to win ITD.
I suppose Brown also has some grappling equity, and Dalby can be taken down, but he’s also tough to hold down and finish. More wrestling would certainly increase the floor/ceiling of Brown but it’s also not a path I fully trust.
Ultimately, Brown just doesn’t project to smash and he’ll likely need an early finish to exceed value. He’s scored 67, 73, 71, 70 and 77 in his recent decisions so if the fight extends, that’s probably what you’ll get.
I don’t think Brown will be too popular though at this price tag, and most will want to pay up to the 9k range. So he could get squeezed on a 14 fight slate and be somewhat contrarian. I don’t completely hate it as Dalby is aging and there’s some KO upside, but it’s still not a play I’ll invest much in, and I simply consider it one spot to be unique.
Dalby at 7.3k may get some love at a cheap price point, on a card where folks need to save salary.
He won’t rate out too well but he’s won four of his past five fights, and in those wins, he’s scored 106, 90, 94 and 69. All but the 106 score came via decisions so Dalby does have some upside even if the fight extends.
I just don’t consider this the best matchup for Dalby. Brown should be able to keep up with him in all areas, and Brown is six years younger. With that said, the fight kinda profiles as a competitive one, and Brown has been hurt several times in his career.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Dalby swing a round, at least, or simply fight competitive on minutes. He has an adequate floor in that sense for 7.3k, but he’s only +950 to win ITD.
I guess I just consider Dalby a standard secondary target. I think there are better ceiling options nearby and others who I feel more confident can win. But I do like this range generally and Dalby is a fine mix-in who could fight competitively over an extended period. I would expect to end up near the field percentage myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Brown by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz
Fight Odds: Aliskerov -545, Muniz +400
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Aliskerov 9.7k, Muniz 6.5k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After suffering his first UFC loss by quick knockout against Robert Whittaker, I am sure Ikram Aliskerov is eager to get in the cage this weekend against Andre Muniz.
Before the Whittaker loss, Aliskerov had won three straight UFC fights, all by first round finish.
Aliskerov is 15-2 professionally from Dagestan, and has a Sambo background. Like most fighters from that region and background, Aliskerov is a pretty well-rounded fighter and has a good skill set. His only losses have come to Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker. There is no shame in that although I do question his durability to a degree.
The best part of Aliskerov’s game is probably his wrestling. He is a typical Dagestani wrestler. He will pursue takedowns, look to leg lace, and he will clasp his hands and mat return opponents. He also is submission capable and submitted his opponent on the Contender Series. I do like his grappling, especially early in fights. I don’t think it is elite. However, he will continue to outwrestle competition in the UFC.
Aliskerov is also a pretty dangerous striker. He knocked Phil Hawes dead, and he has displayed power in the regionals as well. I don’t totally love his volume. However, he pressures well and can swing hard in the pocket.
Aliskerov’s defensive wrestling looks strong and he actually shrugged off Khamzat Chimaev in round one which is impressive. I haven’t seen a ton of his defensive wrestling though. However, shrugging off Chimaev early is no joke and given his background and offensive wrestling game, I am guessing it is pretty good.
Overall, I just think Aliskerov is a pretty good fighter. I do want to see him in extended fights more though. In his Eagle FC fight against Nah-shon Burrell, he won the first two rounds easily with a mix of strikes and grappling. He then lost round three by tiring out. He wasn’t able to obtain takedowns and top control as effectively in round three. It wasn’t the worst gas out ever, but I do think Aliskerov could lose some fights to guys who could stop his grappling and who are better volume strikers. It just made me semi skeptical of his ceiling in this promotion.
Aliskerov will be taking on Andre Muniz. I am going to have some fun here, but I hate Andre Muniz and he is one of the most overachieving fighters in the UFC. The fact that this guy is 8-2 in UFC affiliated fights just baffles me. I think he is a weasel and his decision win over JunYong Park was a complete robbery. He has looked so bad in some of the fights that he has won. I will still be objective when I analyze him though, even though I hate him.
I do respect Muniz’s submission grappling early in fights. He lands 4.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about eight takedowns per fight. His takedowns are honestly not bad when he is fresh, and he is very dangerous taking the back and just threatening with random submissions. He has submitted three fighters in the UFC in the first round, so it is an obvious win condition for him. I really do think he is tricky early.
The issue is Muniz isn’t very good other than that. He gasses badly and can be taken down and beaten up himself. He only defends takedowns at 35 percent and has gotten beaten up on the mat a few times when he has been put on his back. Even Park beat the crap out of him at the end of round one after Muniz did nothing with his control early in the round. Somehow one judge gave that round to Muniz though which is just awful and it cost Park the fight. Muniz can also sometimes lose top position randomly on top too.
Muniz is also a liability on the feet and only lands 1.97 significant strikes per minute. He is basically petrified to strike on the feet.
Muniz can still sometimes fight through fatigue. He was still landing takedowns on Park and Hall late. I still just don’t trust this guy though.
Aliskerov is arguably the best wrestler that Muniz has fought and I think Muniz will really struggle to grapple Aliskerov for 15 minutes. Aliskerov could honestly land takedowns whenever he wants here, and could probably beat the crap out of Muniz from top position. I also think Aliskerov is a better striker so clearly Aliskerov is the rightful favorite and he should win this fight. Aliskerov has all of the tools to shut Muniz down.
Muniz is a little weasel though and he will absolutely try his best to get the back of Aliskerov early. I actually do think Muniz could potentially get the back early. Muniz is tricky early and if Aliskerov simply has one moment of losing his concentration, Muniz could randomly have the back early which could make this interesting. I do respect Muniz early, so an early submission wouldn’t completely shock me. Perhaps Muniz could randomly wing a punch that hurts Aliskerov too but I doubt it.
Still though, Muniz probably has to finish this fight early regardless because I just don’t think Muniz can continue to take Aliskerov down after that. Aliskerov also shrugged off Chimaev and showed great whizzers which is crucial to stop backtakes. So my guess is Aliskerov survives the early danger and then either knocks Muniz out or just beats him up from top position.
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On DraftKings, Aliskerov is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.7k and he’s going to be difficult to pay up for at a high rate based on that cost.
There are others in this range like Zhang and Amorim who have early win paths as well, and are cheaper, so it doesn’t make sense to force Aliskerov in at a higher cost. My gut says that Amorim and Zhang get prioritized ahead of Aliskerov based in part on cost.
With that said, Aliskerov can obviously put up a big score here. I think he has knockout equity on the feet, and he can also land takedowns and win with ground-and-pound. The latter would probably be his best path to scoring although Muniz is still capable from the bottom and could extend the fight.
Additionally, Muniz does fight tough early so there’s also some risk Aliskerov gets taken down or has to play defensively in the early minutes. If that happens, and he doesn’t pick up his offense until round two, a mid or late round finish may not be enough.
I generally do expect Aliskerov to win this fight ITD though, and he’s got a heavy -325 ITD line which is the one of best on the slate, though it’s down from -425 earlier in the week. The fight is still -125 to go Over 1.5 rounds, for what it’s worth.
Aliskerov is going to rate out among the very best options on the entire slate. He’s safe in theory and on paper, with multiple paths to score. Muniz will likely limit his offense on a per minute basis but Aliskerov probably can hurt him eventually and score a TKO.
You still just do not have to force him in at this cost. There aren’t many cheap guarantees and you may just not be able to afford him, even if you like him. So that’s why I’m not expecting massive ownerships on him.
But he’ll rate out extremely well, and carries a solid floor and ceiling. If I can afford him, I will certainly consider plugging him in. He’s a great target overall outside of the cost.
Muniz at 6.5k is a fine punt play because he needs to grapple and he probably needs an early finish. He is skilled enough as a submission grappler to where if he gets a dominant position, he could find a sub. Plus, we don’t have massive samples on Aliskerov wrestling defensively, which is a mild concern.
I’ve been betting against Muniz versus far worse competition though and I don’t really respect his game. It’s nice to see the market has caught up, or perhaps even overcorrected.
I still don’t mind Muniz as a pure dart throw for a small percentage just given his upside case in a win. He’s extremely likely to top 90-100 points in a victory, and he has the skills to achieve his path on occasion. This is a terrible matchup for him on paper, which is why he’s showing no real win equity in the odds, but if you want to play him in a couple lineups in large-fields, that would be OK.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aliskerov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=High)
UNDERCARD
Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick
Fight Odds: Schnell -181, Flick +155
Odds to Finish: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Schnell 9.2k, Flick 7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Matt Schnell’s entering his 10th year on the roster but is also a guy that’s had stretches of inactivity in his run. He’s currently riding a 3-fight losing streak and actually laid his gloves down in the Octagon after his last defeat to Cody Durden in September. Apparently it was a short lived retirement – he’s 6-7 in the UFC and 16-9 as a pro. Flick’s a Contender Series alum from the 2020 season who, similar to his matchup counterpart, retired back in 2021 after his successful UFC debut also against Cody Durden (ironic) but decided to come back a few years later – he’s 2-3 in the UFC and 17-8 as a pro.
The striking component:
Schnell’s always been an interesting case study and just a frustrating guy to watch frankly. He lands 4.4 SLpM at 39% and 4.5 DLpM at 37% — serviceable metrics but nothing special.
There’s really only been a few fights of his 13 where he’s had solid performances and that was against Marco Beltran and Tyson Nam (but still dropped a round to Nam, fight shouldn’t have been a split though). He fought composed in both where he picked and chose his shots, and won clean decisions.
However, he did something very similar against Bontorin but just didn’t step on the gas enough and ate the bigger shots throughout the fight, losing a decision. He did drop Royval and hurt Su though.
Outside of that, he’s gotten into these big slugfests with guys that are bigger hitters than him – giving credence to four of his losses coming via KO.
To that point as well, his durability is generally poor. He doesn’t have the chin to get into these firefights but did wear some big shots against Bontorin better than I anticipated and was able to miraculously survive against Su despite being hurt at five different points. However, Nicolau hurt him three times a few fights back.
But from a general boxing perspective, his hands aren’t bad, they’re actually pretty good.
He just doesn’t have great fight IQ and largely needs “prettier” types of fights to primarily excel in.
A lot of Flick’s fight time throughout his career has been spent on the ground so we still don’t have a vast amount of striking footage from him.
In what we do have, he tends to be lower volume, isn’t the fastest/most athletic guy and is often losing the striking exchanges in his fights. He generally doesn’t appear to be very comfortable in space.
We saw Durden have early success in his debut and even dating back to his fight against Ray Rodriguez, he really struggled with pressure/clinch striking in that bout and was KO’d as a result with knees.
He got picked apart by Johnson who did good attritional body work and Costa really beat him up to all three levels but specifically the legs, compromising Flick in the first few minutes of the fight to where he was largely inoperable.
Gordon also hurt him badly early in that outing and he is coming off getting picked apart by Maness over three rounds – embarrassing that Maness didn’t put him away to be honest.
Flick’s now been KO’d in six of his eight pro losses and at the lighter weight classes which isn’t a good look (some of which coming to non-notorious power threats) – coupled with the fact that he’s never KO’d anyone in his pro career so it’s fair to say there should be a clear power dynamic in most of his fights going forward.
Overall, he’s a sub-par striker at the UFC level being a lower volume guy that’s not very durable at 125 – not a great combination.
How it plays out: Schnell will realize a slight length advantage in this matchup and despite referencing his dodgy chin over the years, luckily for him here, he’s facing a guy in Flick who can’t bust a grape. So, it’s ironic in the sense that I’m actually not very worried about Schnell’s durability like I would be in many other matchups. This is the type of matchup where Schnell should really be able to style on Flick as the faster, cleaner, more technical and more powerful guy.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Schnell isn’t much of a wrestler, only landing 0.6 TDs per 15 minutes at a 40% clip as it’s just not a big part of his game.
He is a BJJ purple belt though and has been able to secure submission victories from his back, and will be very aggressive on bottom – three of his six UFC wins have come via triangles.
To note as well, he only stuffs TDs at 50% so multiple opponents have had success in getting the fights down.
To that point, Schnell will accept TDs or pull guard at times so that needs to be factored into the number. But in general, in 2025, you don’t want to be pulling guard.
We saw Bontorin secure the last round via wrestling and Royval lock up an early guillotine as well.
Schnell winning on the floor against Su wasn’t shocking at the time but he’s also coming off being front choked by Durden off a sloppy shot – he’s been front choked now in all three of his submission losses as a pro and has panicked in some of these chokes where he starts tapping with both hands – very odd.
Overall, you can’t sleep on Schnell’s offensive grappling as he can be tricky, but he’s fine to sacrifice position for submission and has flaws in the defensive wrestling and grappling realm.
Flick’s a BJJ black belt and a dangerous submission grappler with 15 of 17 pro wins coming via submission.
He’s not a great open mat wrestler but isn’t a terrible cage wrestler. He’s also good in the scrambles and in transition to work into more dominant positions. When he is able to solidify top positions, he’s generally been strong there. Whether he’s on top or on his back, he’s very aggressive in attacking generally.
We saw him best Smith on the floor in his DWCS fight but did struggle with the wrestling early from Durden before eventually locking up a flying triangle.
He landed one TD on Johnson but got reversed and was shut out on TDs against Costa – he ultimately succumbed to GNP in both scenarios.
But he was able to capitalize on mistakes from Gordon in his last win, locking up his patented arm triangle choke. His wrestling has translated better regionally in comparison to in the UFC.
Overall, Flick’s a guy opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs against because he is a dangerous/opportunistic submission grappler but he’s going to struggle to ground fights against better defensive wrestlers – Flick’s also never been submitted in his career.
How it plays out: The ground is pretty interesting here for a handful of reasons. The first being that dodgy TDD mark of Schnell sitting at 50%. So, despite me not thinking Flick is anything special as a pure wrestler, he is live to land TDs in this fight especially if Schnell isn’t prioritizing first layer defense. That’s part of my bigger concern for Schnell is that he may honestly be dumb enough to willingly engage in grappling sequences with Flick. Schnell has been submitted three times now and Flick is the better grappler in this fight who will constantly threaten if in the proper positions. Schnell’s shown some sneaky subs as well but I really don’t think he’s the first guy to submit Flick unless it’s damage based.
This fight’s a shitshow for all the reasons mentioned above. You have two guys who’ve both already retired and have been very inconsistent at the UFC level. Schnell realistically should win this fight if he has any semblance of fight IQ in prioritizing stuffing TDs and moving his feet. The issue is, I don’t trust Schnell and he very well may give Flick his best opportunity to succeed. I’m still picking Schnell to win but I consider Flick a live underdog.
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On DraftKings, I’m much more interested in the dog here just given the pricing, in a matchup where neither man can be trusted.
I actually wrote the majority of this analysis earlier in the week but I’m coming back to note that the odds on Flick have climbed pretty measurably. He was +220 early in the week but has now climbed to +155, so he’s going to rate out as a real value.
On the Schnell side, I just don’t see a world where I’m paying 9.2k very often, especially as Schnell has fallen from -267 to -181, despite the fact that Flick does typically lose ITD. In that particular sense. Schnell winning ITD is still very live and he still does have a path to a ceiling.
However, he’s only a mediocre boxer at best and has arguably the worst chin in the entire UFC. Similar to the last event with Erosa/Elkins, it would be a funny but not impossible scenario that Flick could hurt Schnell. If these two box for an extended period though, Schnell is better and should easily win, but he’d still need a big, early KO to be optimal.
Otherwise, what is Schnell going to do here? Flick is likely going to wrestle and my guess is he can take Schnell down. Schnell has some submission equity too but he also just may lose position and get submitted himself. I just think there are a lot of ways for this to go wrong for Schnell.
At 9.2k, Schnell is going to rate out fine for ITD equity at -110 ITD, and really a finish could come at any point. But that finish is 100% based on Flick’s issues, and 0% based on Schnell being some dangerous boxer/finisher. Schnell has only topped 100 points twice in his career and both came from submissions, where I just don’t think the wrestling dynamic is in his favor this week.
My guess is Schnell will get squeezed at this price tag though, especially with the odds dropping considerably, where there are clear priorities both above and below him. Because of the projected lower ownership, I think Schnell is a viable semi-contrarian target with some finishing equity.
I still do not trust him at all and don’t really want to make an investment here, and I actually think there’s a reasonable chance he just loses the fight. But if he’s going to be super low owned, I can see the contrarian merit in a fight that has plenty of
ITD potential.
Flick at 7k isn’t a trustworthy fighter because he’s one-dimensional and tends to get broken. However, you can trust him to wrestle and Schnell doesn’t defend takedowns well, nor does he defend submissions well.
Even if Flick gets on top that won’t mean the fight is over, and Schnell could even threaten from his back. But that’s Flick’s bread and butter. He will have a high ceiling in a win because of his style and I honestly think he can take Schnell down. He is actually +200 ITD which is a great line for this kind of price tag, which will definitely attract some attention to go alongside his climbing moneyline.
So at 7k, yeah I’m going to be playing some Flick. It’s one way to save salary and pay up without sacrificing ceiling. My worry now is that he’ll be the most popular fighter priced below Prates/Magomedov, but I do like this range and I think Flick is a solid option for the price point.
You should certainly still be cautious given the one-dimensional game plan and fight dynamics, and I wouldn’t consider Flick anything close to a lock to win. I wouldn’t aim to be massively overweight at chalk… But he’s one of the more obvious dogs compared to price in my mind, and I wouldn’t mind secondary exposure personally due to his style and the matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Schnell by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young
Fight Odds: Elder -217, Young +183
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Elder 9.4k, Young 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After Elder’s original opponent Ahmad Hassanzada was arrested for “child sex crimes”… Evan Elder will now be taking on UFC debutant Gauge Young who will be taking this fight on a week’s notice.
Also, this fight is a bit of a trip down memory lane for me personally. Both of these guys are Missouri boys. Elder is from Hillsboro, Missouri and Gauge Young is from Sedalia, Missouri. Those towns are in the middle of nowhere to most people in the world. However as a Missouri boy myself, I grew up wrestling on a random select wrestling team against a bunch of farm boys in Hillsboro every week in my childhood. Sedalia hosted the freestyle and Greco state championships every year when I was a kid. So I definitely laughed / smiled a bit when I saw where these guys were from. I also actually coached against Young at the 2018 Missouri state high school wrestling championships which I will discuss a bit below.
Anyway, Elder is 9-2 professionally with a bunch of his wins coming against poor competition on the regional scene.
In Elder’s UFC debut, he fought Preston Parsons up a weight class and basically got outclassed. He was outstruck badly 75-27 in significant strikes and taken down four times. He did at least stay tough and made it to a decision. I honestly didn’t think much of Elder going into that matchup and or after.
However, since then Elder has actually looked decent and far better than I thought he was.
Elder fought Nazim Saykhov who is a solid fighter and was basically beating Sadykhov cleanly, and won the first two rounds in a volume based striking fight. He then lost by an unlucky cut via doctor stoppage in round three. I consider Elder pretty unlucky there. He looked like he would have survived fine had he not been cut and was on his way to winning a decision. I had actually bet Sadykhov in that fight and consider myself fortunate for cashing a Sadykhov ticket there.
Since then Elder has won two straight UFC fights, although it has come against poor competition. He defeated Genaro Valdez with a volume based striking decision and outlanded Valdez 96-64 in significant strikes. I liked the volume by Elder in that matchup. He then beat up Darrius Flowers and submitted him in his most recent matchup.
Elder is honestly not bad, and he is far better than I thought he was coming into his UFC debut. I don’t consider him really good at anything but he does have a few decent aspects to his game.
Elder is probably best as a volume striker. He moves well laterally on the feet and will put up volume. He has some decent compact striking and boxing, and will spring into range and land his shots, and then get back out of range. He can also mix in kicks. I also like his cardio and he can seemingly volume strike for 15 minutes with no issue.
I don’t consider Elder to be powerful though or much of a finishing threat in general. He has landed a couple of knockdowns, but I don’t think he has a ton of knockout power. He does seem tough though. He has been knocked down before but he seems somewhat durable.
Elder can also mix in takedowns, but I don’t consider his takedowns very good. I doubt he can outwrestle a ton of UFC competition. He can float on top a bit and does seem at least competent on the mat though. I basically think he can just take advantage of low-tier UFC fighters on the mat.
Elder got stuck in bottom position a lot vs Parsons. Parsons is a competent grappler though and that was up a weight class, so I will give Elder a bit of a pass. However, I do think he will get outgrappled at this level. I saw him stuck on his back mildly in some of his recent fights too. So it is something I will keep an eye on when he fights a solid grappler going forward.
I basically just think Elder is a decent low to mid tier UFC lightweight. He has some decent striking volume, he is tough, and has decent cardio. He won’t win a belt or anything but he is a serviceable fighter who can find ways to win.
Elder will be taking on UFC newcomer Gauge Young. Young is 9-2 professionally.
Young actually fought on the Contender series against Quinlan Salkilld. He lost a competitive decision where he was just a little behind on the striking and grappling exchanges. Young did compete and had moments though.
So Young is okay. He comes from a wrestling background. He wrestled at Smith Cotton High school in Missouri where he qualified for the state tournament his senior year. 16 people make the tournament in Missouri and the top six Medal. Young was one match away from medaling but came up short against a guy named Jeremy Ashcock from Seckman High School, who I actually coached for that season.
So all in all Young is an okay wrestler. You can see his wrestling a bit in his regional fights. He is capable of landing takedowns and landing ground-and-pound. However, his competition on the regionals has been terrible and I don’t think his offensive wrestling is all that good. I don’t think he will consistently outwrestle UFC lightweights. His defensive grappling is okay. He was taken down on the Contender Series a lot but he did work up well.
Young can strike a bit. He is capable of landing straight punches and can mix in leg kicks too. He has a little bit of pop. However, he is just so green and you can see it in his defense. He can get popped and absorb clean strikes. He is tough though with decent cardio so he can stay competitive in fights.
Young is just whatever to me. He is not good or terrible anywhere. He is young (no pun intended) so perhaps he can improve. However, he is just too much of a generalist and a little too green. I basically think he can be in some competitive scraps against low-tier UFC lightweights but that is about it.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Elder because he just seems like the more developed fighter at this point, especially on the feet.
I just think Elder is a cleaner striker and these guys will probably strike a decent amount. Over the course of 15 minutes, I just think Young is a little too vulnerable defensively and Elder will probably win the minutes overall. Both guys are tough though so I do think this fight will extend and probably go the full three rounds. Young can probably land here and there, but I think Elder will be ahead.
Elder’s defensive grappling does still sketch me out. A Young takedown or two could probably land. However, I just don’t think Young is a great wrestler and I don’t think his top control is good enough to reliably keep Elder down. This is a big step up for Young in general. Young’s wins have been against some seriously awful fighters.
I do think Elder can maybe land a takedown as well but I don’t think he will have an easy time holding down Young.
So my guess is the winner of the striking will win this fight and I just have to go towards Elder. Elder has more high level experience and is much more developed.
—
On DraftKings, Elder is still priced in for his original matchup and at 9.4k, I don’t really think I’m interested in targeting him.
Largely, it’s the strength of this range. The three fighters priced above Elder are very clearly superior fantasy targets, and you can argue several of the fighters priced below Elder are superior as well.
Ultimately, Elder just doesn’t have tremendous finishing equity on paper and he’s only +300 to win ITD. Young is likely the better wrestler on paper too so I think Elder’s most clear path is winning with volume striking. That simply won’t be enough.
It is possible that Elder hurts Young, but Young seems tough and I just don’t consider Elder an elite knockout threat. Maybe taking the fight on short notice gives Elder some late advantages if Young gets tired, but Young was scheduled to fight on the regionals on May 2nd, so I would expect him to be in decent shape. I do think Elder is probably a better sub grappler as well.
I just don’t see it easily translating into a finish, and certainly not an early one. The fight is -240 to go over 2.5 rounds.
The lone benefit is that Elder will be contrarian. I expect him to be very low owned due to these reasons but he’s honestly not a contrarian option that I like much. There are too many elite options in this range on paper and I think I’d rather target them, even at higher ownerships, and find somewhere else to be unique.
Young is therefore the preferred option and at 7.1k, I think he has some viability.
I do think the outcome you have to predict is Elder winning with volume, but at least Young carries some power and is probably the better wrestler on paper. He’ll likely need takedowns and/or damage to win.
Elder has given up takedowns in the past so I think Young can land a couple. I just have concerns that Young isn’t a very good sub grappler, so he won’t be able to control Elder and that’s something that will probably hold him back long term. So 1-3 takedowns may not mean much even if they land.
Still, at 7.1k, it’s a viable option. I like targeting this lower 7k range in general and Young is simply one of the options who fits. He’s in play for floor, wrestling equity and mild win equity but he still doesn’t have a clear finishing ceiling at +400 and he is taking the debut on short notice.
I ultimately won’t have too much exposure to Young, and prefer some other dogs in this range, but for the price and matchup, Young is viable as a low-end secondary option.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Elder by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda
Fight Odds: Gutierrez -140, Castaneda +121
Odds to end ITD: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Gutierrez 8.2k, Castaneda 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
John Castaneda’s entering his 6th year on the roster where he’s been an up and down commodity over his promotional stay – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 21-7 as a pro. Chris Gutierrez is entering his 8th year on the roster and has put together a pretty solid run, but has had some hiccups in recent years – he’s 9-3-1 in the UFC and 21-5-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Castaneda’s a guy who’s grown on me over the years in terms of his striking. He primarily fights southpaw but will switch stances to where he’ll stay mobile in fights within the mid-range or from the outside.
His boxing is good and he has a nice supplemental kicking game to where he’ll target all three levels, to which he has hurt guys with kicks in multiple fights.
He lands 4.9 SLpM at 50% and 5.6 DLpM at 49%. Despite not being a perennial power threat throughout the bulk of his career, he does have knockdowns in four of his last six fights, so that does appear to be an aspect of his game that’s coming along.
In the UFC, he struggled with the volume and hand speed of Wood but no real shame as that was a tough debut to take on short notice. He outstruck Wineland and found the kill shot. Against Johns, the early minutes of the fight were competitive before Johns got tired under the pressure of Castaneda – Johns also didn’t really throw much.
He had Santos on the ropes early and was very aggressive in that spot but gassed himself trying to finish the tough Santos and ultimately got finished himself. I do think that fight was a bit uncharacteristic for Castaneda in the sense of cardio and him being more of a builder. Despite getting KO’d by Santos, I think Castaneda is a pretty durable fighter but is a hittable fighter at the same time.
More recently, he was able to take the 1st and 3rd round against Gafurov, outstruck Kang in all three rounds but then struggled with the volume and technical boxing of Marcos.
Overall, Castaneda is a good striker and won’t be an easy guy to look good against given his diversity and ability to traditionally fight a hard three rounds – although he can be hittable when effectively cut off.
Gutierrez is a tricky fighter that plays the “point-fighting” game well. He can fight from both stances and his striking is effective from both but primarily orthodox.
Gutierrez is more a volume-based guy who can work in a frustrating style for opponents. He lands 4.7 SLpM at 59% and 6.1 DLpM at 58%.
He uses a lot of footwork, stance switching, range management, straight punches, good counter hooks going backwards and a heavy kicking attack.
In that, his kicking game is of an upper tier of which he has brutalized multiple opponents’ legs and has effectively used the calf kick – which we know in 2025 is one of the more debilitating weapons you can have overall. He’s also a guy who can fight well both forwards and backwards, but does excel most when he can control the center.
Based on his style, he’s not much of a power threat but has scored a few knockout wins. One was a spinning back fist over Danaa which was kind of memey though, and then he landed the nasty knee against Edgar, but Edgar was washed and had no chin – so take those for what you will.
Defensively, he only eats 2.6 SApM at 64% and 3 DApM at 67%.
However, guys have had some success on him going forward in terms of making the exchanges and rounds closer.
Munhoz was really the guy to exploit that enough to ultimately best Gutierrez where Gutierrez struggled with the pressure and power shots coming back his way.
Despite his evasiveness, he does fight with his hands down which can get him in some trouble at points when guys can begin to corner him or catch him off the break. But he’s been very effective at distance with a positive differential of +3.1/minute.
Overall, Gutierrez is a solid striker and isn’t going to be the easiest of guys to beat clean.
How it plays out: Off the top, Gutierrez will realize a 3” height advantage but Castaneda will realize a 4” reach advantage. It’s an interesting striking battle for a handful of reasons. The first being that Gutierrez hasn’t fought many conventional southpaws (although both will switch) outside of Andre Ewell where that didn’t deter the kicking attack from Gutierrez, as he chipped away at Ewell over 15 minutes. Gutierrez is a guy that ultimately has better ring craft than Castaneda in my eyes who’s also far superior defensively exchange to exchange. However, I’d say that Castaneda has the better hands in the matchup and is the more likely of the two to land more critical head strikes. I’m curious to see which guy will be playing the aggressor.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Castaneda comes from a wrestling background where he wrestled one year at the DII level but stopped to pursue MMA – he also reps a brown belt in BJJ.
In MMA, he’s mixed in TDs to a lot of his fights which has been an aid in him securing victories throughout his career. His metrics are okay but not great, landing 1.7 TDs per 15 minutes at 37%. He’s got some submission and GNP victories on the rap sheet as well.
He submitted Johns who’s a wrestler by base but that was largely a product of Johns death gassing – Johns also essentially just fell over later in the fight, so Castaneda didn’t officially land a TD – kind of similar song and dance when he beat Rojo. He landed multiple TDs in the Santos fight but couldn’t keep him down.
He also struggled to control Gafurov through the early portions of the fight but did find more success in the back half when Gafurov got tired. He didn’t gain much control time on Kang but landed three TDs. He most recently struggled to get off and control Marcos outside of a little round two.
Defensively, he’s been taken down here and there but throughout the bulk of his career, his TDD and general get up game has been one of his better attributes as he’s not the type of guy to play guard and hang out on bottom as a good scrambler. Castaneda’s also never been submitted in 28 pro fights.
So overall, the ground is more of a strength than a weakness for Castaneda but he’s not great with conventional ground control per TD.
Gutierrez reps a BJJ brown belt but doesn’t go to the offensive wrestling much as he largely likes to play the standup game – 0.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 30%.
He is competent off his back but has been grinded in the wrestling before against guys like Barcelos, Durden (early), a bit by De Freitas, late against Colares, after the KD against Munhoz, later against Song and was recently backpacked in the 2nd by Le.
Statistically, his TDD has been good though at 71% but his get up game is where there is some pause. It’s not because I think he has a “bad” get up game, but that he can just be defensively responsible and wait for openings to stand. The issue with that is he has dropped minutes on bottom as a result.
Overall, he’s looked good from top position in the times he’s been there and has competent jiu-jitsu but he just needs more urgency when grounded at times because he can drop some minutes.
How it plays out: I’d give more upside to Castaneda here as he’s the more likely party to pursue TDs and realize success with them. At the same time, he’s still not a great entry based wrestler only getting his TDs at 37% and as noted, he’s struggled with ground control on per TD basis. So, I don’t think it will necessarily be easy for Castaneda to ground Gutierrez but I have my concerns with Gutierrez playing too much from his back if he’s put there. TDs from Castaneda could potentially loom larger even if he’s not able to do much with them if he competes closely on the feet.
Tricky fight that I don’t have a strong opinion on as I see the merit to both guys. I’d also be relatively surprised if either guy just washed the other out over 15 minutes. I’ll take Castaneda to edge out a win but this is kind of a coin toss to me that profiles to be a tight 29-28 type of fight.
—
On DraftKings, you can definitely make the argument that this is a fight to ignore on a 14-fight slate.
Gutierrez primarily has been a weak fantasy producer, as he’s not super willing to chase a finish and he doesn’t wrestle. His primary path to a ceiling is through leg kicks which always give him a sneaky path, but it’s also rarely been enough.
We’ve seen him score 56, 75, 75 and 75 in his four UFC decisions, and I don’t see much upside for more. He’s only +600 to win ITD in this matchup which is extremely poor.
Castaneda has been knocked down a couple of times in recent fights, and there is variance in striking exchanges. Plus, some leg kick equity. At a super low ownership, that’s the merit I see for Gutierrez, but he will need a knockout and that’s ultimately just not a likely outcome.
I don’t think I’m going to be playing Gutierrez at 8.2k. I just don’t think he realizes a KO very often and although he may be super contrarian, I just don’t want to make any real investment here. Mix him in for unique purposes if you wish but he has a proven style to underperform on DK and you’re generally just hoping for randomness to occur.
Castaneda is the superior target in my mind, though it’s not an easy matchup for him to excel either as Gutierrez will fight slow-ish and point fight.
Castaneda does throw more powerful shots and probably has a better chance to land big head strikes, but it still doesn’t mean that’s a likely outcome, and Gutierrez has only been knocked down once in the UFC in 13 fights where he still wasn’t finished.
The primary merit I see in Castaneda here is actually wrestling. He’s landed 10 takedowns in his last four fights, and Gutierrez has now been taken down two times in three consecutive fights. The most recent being Quang Le, where he lost a round, which is a major concern of mine.
I don’t think that Castaneda is likely to finish on the mat and his overall wrestling upside is still capped, but the simple path to a few takedowns, 5+ minutes of control and a decision win is enough to give him some viability at 8k.
Still, I think it’s more likely that Castaneda scores in the mid 80s than the mid 90s in a decision win, and I doubt that’s enough to be optimal at this price. Especially on a 14-fight slate, it’s just difficult to prioritize Castaneda in any fashion and I expect him to be quite low owned as well.
I don’t hate Castaneda as a contrarian target, but he won’t be much more than that with a +365 ITD line. But wrestling equity here is enough for me to consider a sprinkle given the contrarian nature, and it at least gives him a path to exceed value in a win.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Castaneda by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Alatengheili
Fight Odds: Blackshear -517, Alatengheili +384
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Blackshear 9.3k, Alatengheili 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
Coming off yet another submission win, Da’Mon Blackshear will turn right around to face Chinese wrestler Alatengheili this weekend.
Blackshear has now picked up four wins in the UFC and all four have come inside the distance, which include three consecutive submissions. He knocked out Luan Lacerda in 2023 to earn his first promotional victory, and followed that up with a sick Twister win against Jose Johnson. After a couple of losses to Mario Bautista and Montel Jackson, Blackshear submitted Cody Stamann and most recently submitted Cody Gibson in March.
Blackshear is now 4-3-1 in the UFC but he’s fought solid competition, including Jackson, Bautista, Farid Basharat and Youssef Zalal. He lost to all those guys, with the exception of Zalal where he earned a draw. His strength of victories are becoming more solid as well with wins over Stamann and Gibson who I do respect.
Blackshear isn’t a full-on dependent grappler, but that’s clearly his biggest strength and that’s primarily where he’s going to excel at this level.
He isn’t the best pure wrestler, but he’s solid and seems to be improving each time out. He averages 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and has topped out at four against Bautista.
Where he’s truly strong is on the mat though, as a black belt in jiu-jitsu, Blackshear is crafty and can tangle you up. He’s got a diverse arsenal of submissions including a Twister which he hit on Jose Johnson in 2023. Of his 16 pro wins, 11 have come by submission.
I don’t love Blackshear’s defensive wrestling though, which currently stands at 70 percent. Most who have wanted to take him down have had success, and he can be controlled a bit, though he’s strong enough as a defensive grappler to survive.
Blackshear also gassed out a bit against Zalal in his UFC debut and also struggled late against Bautista, but his cardio isn’t awful. He had to come from behind a little bit against Gibson last time out which was nice to see, despite the early struggles.
On the feet, Blackshear is mediocre but improving. I used to think he had nothing to offer outside of the occasional kick, but he’s shown more power components as of late.
He hurt Stamann badly with a flying knee and then rocked him after with a straight that directly led to the submission. He also landed 90 sig. strikes in 15 minutes against Bautista, which was spread out well between the head, body and legs.
His other two UFC decisions had more wrestling but he only landed 27 and 46 sig. strikes in those fights. He can definitely be slow paced at times.
Blackshear was also knocked dead by Montel Jackson in 18 seconds in 2024. Jackson is a powerful guy and I don’t think Blackshear has awful durability, but it’s perhaps something to note.
Overall I think Blackshear is a very strong grappler and someone who I’d primarily want to trust against weak grapplers.
However, he’s not a stand out defensive fighter or striker and unless he has a clear grappling edge, fights can certainly be competitive and he can occasionally lose rounds.
It was interesting to see Gibson look so aggressive against Blackshear last time out and take that first round. I thought Gibson had an underrated chance there and he looked awesome, landing 30 sig. strikes in the first round to Blackshear’s 6. However, Blackshear caught him in the second round after giving up a takedown, and locked up the RNC.
Now he’ll take on another wrestler in Alatengheili, who is coming off a nice win against Kleydson Rodrigues nearly one year ago.
Alatengheili is 5-2-1 in the UFC which is a pretty solid record, and I think he’s a fairly easy fighter to break down.
Alatengheili can wrestle a bit. He can shoot in on double legs and get his opponents on the mat. He lands 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and is pretty consistent, landing 3, 2, 2, 0, 0, 4 and 3 takedowns in his UFC decision.
The problem is, Alatengheili is extremely dependent on control. He is not a dangerous submission grappler and actually attempts 0.0 submissions per fight, so he just needs top control where he can lay in guard and land some ground-and-pound. It’s a fine strategy against weak defensive grapplers but anyone who can scramble up will give him problems.
Additionally, Alatengheili is very low volume on the feet, and largely dependent on landing a big power shot with his right hand. He’s accomplished that on occasion, including in a fight against Kevin Croom 2022 which lasted less than one minute. But that is Alatengheili’s only knockdown in 22 rounds.
He currently averages 2.64 sig. strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 4.67 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. It’s pretty poor. In his decisions, Alatengheili has landed 18, 38, 49, 36, 46, 47 and 36 significant strikes. So yeah, you can expect him to land 35-45 sig. strikes over 15 minutes, which is very poor.
Personally, I’d be very surprised if he beat Blackshear this weekend.
I do think Alatengheili can land a takedown or two, but I highly doubt he can do anything with it. Blackshear is a far superior submission grappler and should be able to threaten from the bottom, and scramble up to his feet.
If Alatengheili cannot take down and hold down Blackshear for several minutes per round, the only other thing he can do is land a bomb. Blackshear has been KOd before, but only by Jackson who has bigger hands than Francis Ngannou.
Given his exceptionally low striking rate, it’s just not an outcome I think is likely at all.
I am not certain Blackshear will be able to land takedowns either though. He’s fine, but not a fantastic wrestler, and Alatengheil is OK defensively at 75 percent. However, Gustavo Lopez took Alatengheili down three times in 2021 and took his back late. He hasn’t really fought many strong wrestlers in general.
My guess is Blackshear can take him down, and probably can take his back as well. If Blackshear gets a dominant position like the back he will have real submission equity.
Furthermore, when Alatengheili is shooting takedowns, he’s going to put himself in danger of getting front choked if Blackshear defends, which he probably will do a handful of times.
I just see all the ground upside in favor of Blackshear. Alatengheili may get 1-2 takedowns and a few minutes of ground control, but Blackshear should be able to limit damage there and could smash if he ever gets in dominant position.
On the feet, I favor Blackshear outright as well. He is 5’10” and Alatengheili is only 5’5”, and Blackshear will hold a six-inch reach advantage as well. He should be the better kicker here, and he should be faster, and should also land with more volume. We know Alatengheili really has no volume upside.
Alatengheili is tough, but I don’t see 42 significant trikes in 15 minutes easily beating Blackshear, and the more likely outcome is Blackshear can cleanly win rounds himself with length and volume, plus any ground advantages.
This is clearly a spot Blackshear should win in my mind. I don’t 100 percent trust the guy, and maybe he gets hit with a bomb. But he should have Alatengheili pretty covered here, and it would be an awful look to get held down on his back for 10+ minutes when Alatengheili carries no submission threat.
—
On DraftKings, Blackshear is probably the best option on the slate, on paper, outside of the top three in price.
He’s still expensive at 9.3k, but he’s more affordable in a literal sense compared to 9.5k, 9.6k and 9.7k, and he’ll fit in a bit easier into constructions. Blackshear’s odds have moved quite a bit this week and he’s now north of -500 to win, with an adequate +115 ITD line.
He’s also coming off wins of 93, 101, 115, and 114 which show moderate upside and I think he’ll attract attention overall.
I like Blackshear, I just never fully love him. Alatengheili is pretty tough and doesn’t fight at a high pace. He could wrestle and control Blackshear for a couple of minutes. It’s not necessarily the best fight for Blackshear to score.
With that said, Blackshear is just better, and he definitely will have submission equity if he can find top position with any consistency. That could come from a takedown of his own or a failed takedown from Alatengheili, and I almost think that’s the most likely outcome.
It still doesn’t mean an elite ceiling. If Alatengheili gets beaten up a bit and shoots a sloppy takedown in round two, and gets submitted because of it, Blackshear may not even top 100 points. So he’s not a lock at all and it would be fine to prioritize those big three priced above him.
But yeah, I do like Blackshear some. I think he’s reasonably safe with multiple paths to score. I like his chances of winning ITD. He’s priced cheaper than others. He’s not my favorite play on the slate but he’s a solid secondary option and I think a bit of a stand out in this 9.4k-8.9k tier.
Alatengheili is another cheap, dart throw who I consider viable at 6.9k.
I personally won’t have much exposure to him at all but he does throw hard, and he can wrestle. So he has paths to win and he could score well.
However, he’s clearly in the bottom tier this week alongside Viana, Smith and Muniz. If you pay up literally $100 more, you’re getting a +155 dog instead of a +384 dog, so it clearly makes sense to spend the money most often for win equity.
If I was playing 5-10 lineups, I would highly focus on that tier above and wouldn’t punt too often into the big dog tier. So by default, I don’t think you should be ending up with much Alatengheili. He’s only +900 to win ITD as well.
With that said, if you have a larger portfolio and want to punt on occasion, that’s fine. I prefer Smith over Alatengheili but he and Muniz are on a similar playing field and you could argue Alatengheili is better. He might be worth a couple of shots in large-field tournaments.
But this is a low-end, dart throw type of play and just not worthy of a large investment.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blackshear by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Cameron Saaiman
Fight Odds: Wellmaker -120, Saaiman +105
Odds to Finish: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Wellmaker 8.4k, Saaiman 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
Fresh off a contract winning performance on the Contender Series, Malcolm Wellmaker will make his UFC debut on Saturday in a fun matchup against Cameron Saaiman.
Wellmaker is 8-0 professionally at age 30, earning four wins by knockout and two by submission. He also has an additional eight amateur fights on his record of which he won seven.
I wouldn’t classify Wellmaker as a blue chip prospect but he’s a solid fighter who I do think can compete at the UFC level.
Wellmaker is primarily a striker, and his best assets thus far have been his power, and his ability to attack multiple levels. I don’t necessarily consider him an elite knockout threat, but he has put a few guys unconscious with his hands, and so his power does appear to be real in that way. He folded his Contender Series opponent in less than three minutes which was pretty impressive.
What I care more about personally is that Wellmaker has shown a solid leg-kicking game. Power can come and go and it’s not the best attribute to rely on at the UFC level, but the addition of lower leg kicks creates a much more well-rounded attack and one that does carry real win equity alongside it.
In that DWCS fight, Wellmaker landed some brutal early leg kicks that clearly hurt his opponent and contributed to him finding the knockout punch shortly thereafter. I would absolutely love to see him continue to attack the legs in the UFC, and if he does, I will feel much more comfortable about his game overall.
Outside of those two aspects, Wellmaker is just OK. He doesn’t come from any real athletic background that I know of and was somewhat of a troubled youth who turned his life around while training MMA. He’s turned himself into a pretty solid striker who can switch stances, kick, throw a jab and land with some power. But I don’t think he’s a devastating power threat and I would guess he’ll have a bit more trouble hurting UFC-level strikers.
As a wrestler, Wellmaker is capable but nothing special. I’ve seen him land a few takedowns and they’ve all come from the body lock and trips. In that particular area he can land takedowns, and he can float on top and take the back. He’s only a blue belt in jiu-jitsu though and it shows. He’s capable but he won’t be easily taking down and submitting UFC-level competition.
I’ve barely seen any real defensive wrestling from Wellmaker but I do like that when he has been taken down, he pops right back up. He’s not going to immediately accept guard and that’s a positive for him. He can be clinched up though and held against the cage, and I think he’ll have some trouble against more physical opponents.
For now though, I think Wellmaker can hold his own against the bottom tier of the division from a wrestling perspective. I just don’t think he’ll have a ton of offensive wrestling success and he might be limited to playing a more defensive/neutralizing role. When he takes steps up in competition, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outclassed.
Overall, I like Wellmaker’s ability to do some damage on the feet, controlling striking exchanges and working leg kicks. Without damage though, I don’t think he’ll be pulling away in fights in this tough bantamweight division.
Cameron Saaimon is coming off a brutal beating to Payton Tallbott at the Apex which will be on Tallbott’s highlight reel for years to come. Prior to that, he lost a tough decision to Christian Rodriguez who is another difficult opponent to face.
Saaiman was previously 3-0 in the UFC with two TKO victories and was considered a promising prospect himself. He’s still only 24 years old so he could be making improvements each time out.
I mostly consider Saaiman to be a pressure kickboxer. He’s been training Mixed Martial Arts since his youth and had some kickboxing success in South Africa where he is from, before turning pro.
Even dating back to his Contender Series performance in 2022, Saaiman attempted a ton of strikes, wore his opponent down and scored a late knockout. He outlasted Mana Martinez in a similar manner as well in 2023, taking some early damage but using pressure and volume to wear him down and hurt him.
Thus far, Saaiman is landing 5.32 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.18 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. I quite like his volume, and his cardio. I think he’s a pretty strong technical kicker and those kicks are his best weapons. He does have several knockouts on his record but I don’t think he’s a major power threat.
I really just like Saaiman when he can out-spam volume on his opponents. He throws a lot of leg kicks, but they aren’t as impactful as Wellmaker’s and don’t create as much damage. He isn’t a major boxing threat in my opinion. But he can throw lots of kicks and lots of offense in general, and he rates out as a solid round winner from that perspective.
In these last two fights, Saaiman has run into some tough competition, so I do give him a pass. Rodriguez is super defensively sound and a neutralizer, and was just the more technical party there, as well as the better wrestler. Tallbott is a far more effective striker and was able to damage Saaiman badly on multiple occasions.
That could be an issue again here for Saaiman, as I think Wellmaker is the more likely party to land damaging shots. I think Saaiman is a more technical striker than Wellmaker, especially with his kicks, but Wellmaker is more effective, and can hurt him both to the legs and to the head.
I see Saaiman having more success over an extended period, not that Wellmaker has poor cardio, but Saaiman does throw more and has more proven striking cardio at least. If Wellmaker cannot do damage, I think Saaiman has a reasonable path to winning rounds just by spamming kicks. Perhaps he could hurt Wellmaker who doesn’t always keep his hands up, I just don’t necessarily view Saaiman as the biggest power threat.
The grappling exchanges could be interesting here as well, because Saaiman has shown defensive issues on the mat. Particularly with wrestling exchanges though, where he’s only defending at 47 percent. He gave up five takedowns and five minutes of control to Steven Koslow, and he gave up three takedowns to Rodriguez who put him in some deep chokes.
With that said, Saaiman fought out of those chokes and even took the back of Rodriguez. While he’s a pretty poor defensive wrestler, he’s not easy to hold down and I think his submission grappling is fine.
Wellmaker probably has the pure wrestling advantage here and I think it’s likely he can land 1-2 takedowns. I’m really not sure he does anything with them though and my guess is that Saaiman would just scramble free. I actually think Saaiman is probably the better sub grappler outright, but he only lands about 1 takedown per 15 minutes and I don’t think he’s likely to do much on the mat either.
So although we could see these two tangle on the ground, I mostly expect them to neutralize each other and I think the winner of the striking exchanges will be the winner of the fight.
I think this could be a pretty competitive fight but I guess I’ll pick Wellmaker. Saaiman clearly has a path to winning rounds with volume but I think Wellmaker will keep up pace well enough, and he’s tricky to hit while switching stances and keeping range. Wellmaker has more power and is more likely to have bigger moments.
I’m not exceptionally confident though and Saaiman is still six years younger, having fought a couple of high-level opponents in his last two fights, where Wellmaker has just not proven himself on that level yet.
—
On DraftKings, you can certainly make the argument that this is not the best fight to target.
The odds are -135 to go the full 15 minute distance and in a decision, I’m skeptical either side exceeds value.
I would prefer to target Wellmaker of the two because I think he has more knockout upside, and I also think he has more wrestling equity. However, the reason the fight is -135 to go the distance is because Wellmaker winning by KO is still not an extremely likely outcome. And 1-2 takedowns with limited control probably doesn’t do enough.
So I think there’s a pretty decent chance Wellmaker wins this fight by decision, lands 80 strikes and a takedown or two, and only scores 75 DK points. He’s only a secondary target for this reason.
With that said, he does have some KO equity and Saaiman is coming off a TKO loss. If he wins by TKO it probably comes early. He’s +215 to win ITD and has some upside at least. I don’t mind sprinkling in Wellmaker and I’ll likely aim to come in near the field, but in a three-round fight, I’d be nervous to have lots of exposure.
Saaiman at 7.8k can win the fight but he’ll likely need to hurt Wellmaker to have a real shot at a ceiling.
Saaiman is capable of landing 100+ sig. strikes but that still doesn’t mean a whole lot if the fight goes the distance. He could land 1-2 takedowns as well, I suppose, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Wellmaker did have a couple of sketchy moments on DWCS where he was backing up with his hands down, so maybe Saaiman can catch him here. It’s not impossible. I wouldn’t bet on it though and Saaiman is only +325 to win ITD.
I guess he has some SUB equity too but without any proactive wrestling it’s hard to really quantify. The most likely outcome by far is that if Saaiman wins, it’s a competitive distance affair where he scores in the 70s.
One thing that does give me pause is that Saaiman has scored 116, 118 and 105 in his three wins, which does suggest upside in his game. However, I have to look at it contextually and when I do, it’s not great..
The 118 point score came with SIX reversals and a knockout. The 116 score came with two TDS and one reversal, and a first-round KO. The 105 score came with a knockdown and 146 total strikes.
The volume aspect is fine.. and it’s just a case where if Saaiman wins by TKO, he’s going to smash most likely because he’s also throwing a lot of volume and producing offense. Without the TKO, I am highly skeptical that Saaiman can reach these kinds of scores.
I don’t think this is the best matchup for him to land volume and at 7.8k, I’m still skeptical he can exceed value. He’s perhaps a viable semi-contrarian target in a larger portfolio but I don’t see any way to prioritize him and I’ll likely end up quite light myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wellmaker by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana
Fight Odds: Amorim -872, Viana +575
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Amorim 9.5k, Viana 6.7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a grappling oriented fight here between jiu-jitsu ace Jacqueline Amorim and Polyana Viana.
Amorim is a BJJ black belt and has a great track record in big time BJJ tournaments. She took 2nd in the black belt division of the IBJJF world no-gi championships in 2016.
Amorim is now dedicated to MMA and is 9-1 professionally. She made her UFC debut against Sam Hughes and won round one with dominant grappling positions. She took Hughes down, body triangled her, and nearly submitted her. Then Amorim gassed horribly, started pulling guard, and just got beaten up on her back for the next two rounds. Her next UFC fight was a dominant grappling based win against Conejo Ruiz. She then quickly submitted Cory McKenna in round one via arm bar in her most recent win. Most recently she submitted Vanessa Demopolous, albeit controversially as she put her fingers in Demopolous’ gloves before submitting her.
Most of Amorim’s career before the UFC was spent in LFA where she was the LFA champion. Amorim’s fights have generally all been the same. She has finished most of her opponents in round one, and generally by submission. She generally looks to take opponents down, and pass their guard and submit them. It has worked well for her thus far.
Her BJJ is good which is no surprise given her credentials. I think she is an interesting prospect and will continue to have grappling based success in the UFC. I think she can quickly submit a lot of girls in this division.
I just hate Amorim’s cardio though man. She had nothing for 10 minutes against Sam Hughes. Furthermore, she has no striking and looks to pull guard when she is too tired to land takedowns. When she is tired and on her back, she looks to have nothing either so she can be held down. I basically think Amorim is going to make a living in this division by dominating early with her grappling. However, she will probably lose when she faces anyone who can resist her or survive early.
I did like that Amorim fought into round three successfully against Montserrat Ruiz. However, even in rounds two and three, Amorim was pulling guard. It worked out for her as she swept Ruiz but I don’t think she can just do that to everyone.
I still respect Amorim’s skills but I will be hesitant in the spots where I am confident in her finishing quickly. I do think this is a spot that is favorable for Amorim against Polyana Viana though.
Viana is kind of a striker/guard player. Viana lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.65 in return. She defends strikes at 53 percent. I actually think Viana is semi-underrated as a striker. I am not saying she is a good one. However, she should be able to outstrike the lower tier strikers of this division. She also has some sneaky power and recently knocked out Jinh Yu Frey.
Viana has a brown belt in BJJ and won the world championships in BJJ in a lower belt division years back. I still don’t completely trust her BJJ considering she was guard subbed by Veronica Macedo which is honestly just embarrassing. She also recently got submitted by Iasmin Lucindo where she kind of just looked bad. In her last matchup against Gillian Robertson, she was also finished on the mat in dominant fashion.
What I don’t like about Viana is that she doesn’t have strong offensive or defensive wrestling. She has only landed four takedowns in the UFC and defends takedowns at a poor 38 percent. She almost willingly accepts being taken down.
Viana generally has success with her grappling by playing guard and obtaining guard submissions. I do think she has a good guard and can continue to land armbars or triangles on occasion. However, she lost to Aldrich by playing guard, not obtaining a submission, and getting controlled. The same thing happened vs Tabatha Ricci. She is just going to lose rounds off her back if her opponents can stifle the submissions, which will continue to happen more and more as she faces more seasoned grapplers.
As far as this fight goes, I just think this is a good matchup for Amorim. Amorim should be able to land takedowns here, especially early. I also think Amorim can advance position and she will probably submit Viana.
I also think it is good that Viana doesn’t push a pace and doesn’t work up from bottom position. So Amorim won’t have to use as much energy here, and she likely won’t gas. So all in all, this is a good matchup for Amorim.
I think my only concern is that Amorim is a liability striking and she does pull guard. I do think if Viana survives, it is possible Amorim pulls guard later, and ends up on bottom and gets stuck on her back. Viana may just back off and let Amorim up. However, those last two rounds against Hughes and Amorim pulling guard vs Ruiz will always give me some pause.
All in all though, this is a good matchup for Amorim and I expect her to get it done by getting dominant grappling positions quickly.
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On DraftKings, Amorim is rightfully priced up to 9.5k and she should be one of the fighters in consideration when you can pay up.
Amorim really should finish Viana here. Viana looked pathetically bad against Robertson and gave up takedowns so easily. It makes me pretty confident that Amorim can land early takedowns, and despite Viana being a fine submission grappler, Amorim is better.
It is also a less risky matchup for Amorim in that Viana will accept bottom position, which should allow her to maintain cardio for longer.
However from a fantasy standpoint, I wouldn’t want an extended fight. I still think Amorim would carry a solid floor and she could absolutely rack up control minutes here. But she doesn’t always land ground-and-pound and at 9.5k, I would not want her to win by decision.
That is really the issue – the cost – Amorim needs a finish and it still may not be enough. She’s not going to wrestle in volume and without lots of ground-and-pound, we’re in danger of a quick sub only leading to 100 points which is potentially not enough. In her wins in the UFC, Amorim has scored 120. 91 and 103.
Amorim is now -325 to win ITD here which is very strong, and I do think she’ll have early opportunities. I feel pretty safe with Amorim this week. It’s more just a question of her top end ceiling, though nobody is a lock in this range. You’re going to feel fine if she scores 103 points but she just may not be optimal and if you’re heavy on her, you have to accept that fact.
I will probably end up with a moderate amount of exposure to Amorim and I expect her to be reasonably popular. She is cheaper than Zhang but Zhang will draw lots of attention too and could be considered a priority over her. Potentially the same with Aliskerov. My guess is Amorim ends up as the most popular of the three now due to pricing and odds.
Spreading out your exposure makes sense but Amorim feels like a pretty safe option this week with a great ML, a strong ITD line, and grappling equity.
Viana doesn’t interest me much at 6.7k.
It’s just so likely she’s taken down and held down early which should really limit her upside. She’s a massive dog now and it just does not feel like a good matchup on paper.
The only thing to look at is cardio. Perhaps if Amorim gasses badly, Viana can beat her up down the stretch or even finish the fight. It’s not a massive stretch.. but this still would only come to fruition if Viana can start to defend takedowns which I highly doubt. She’s only +1200 ITD.
Obviously Viana will be super low owned but there’s not a lot of win equity or finishing equity on paper here, so I’m just going to pass altogether.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amorim by Armbar, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Timmy Cuamba vs. Roberto Romero
Fight Odds: Romero -135, Cuamba +118
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Romero 8.3k, Cuamba 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
Roberto Romero put up a hell of a fight on super short notice against David Onama in his UFC debut, and now he’ll get a full camp to take on Timmy Cuamba this weekend.
Romero came into that bout as a +600 dog and nearly finished Onama in the first round, hurting him and jumping on his back. But Onama survived, fought back to hurt Romero himself, and was the fresher party late in the fight which secured him the victory.
I wasn’t all that surprised to see Romero compete but I am curious how his performance will translate coming into a full camp here against Cuamba.
He’s now 8-4-1 professionally at age 25, and he’s earned three wins by knockout and two by submission, coming from the Combate Global organization.
To me, Romero looks to be fairly well-rounded, but not particularly dangerous anywhere.
He’s a capable kickboxer with fast hands, and he is mildly threatening in the pocket. He’s also been able to wrestle at points, and can take down and hold down weaker competition.
His cardio has also shown to be solid with a few wins by decision, and so overall, I’d rate him as a viable round winner who will have clear ceiling limitations.
Romero came out hot against Onama though and obviously slowed down late, so I’m hopeful that his cardio will look improved this time out. I expect Cuamba to fight much slower than Onama did, as Onama was able to land 121 sig. strikes over three rounds to Romero’s 74. Of those 74, Romero landed 39 in round one, 26 in round two and 9 in round three.
Furthermore, Onama was able to take Romero down late and mount him easily. It looked very poor from Romero and now I wonder how much of a liability he will be on the canvas. I do think that it was a more cardio based error from Romero, but either way I have some concerns for him on the mat against decent opposition.
I am just not sure where Romero will truly have success at this level. I see Romero possibly being competitive in rounds, possibly having a speed advantage against some opponents but he wasn’t a major power threat on the regionals and I don’t think he’s extremely likely to win by KO in the UFC..
His wrestling was OK on the regionals, but it didn’t look like anything special, and I have further concerns after his debut. But his ability to mix up the two and go a full 15 minutes is still a positive, though I’d guess he’ll just be physically outmatched by most in the featherweight division.
Timmy Cuamba is now 0-2 in the UFC and 8-3 overall, after losing his short-notice debut to Bolaji Oki, and following it up with a close decision loss to Lucas Almeida in June.
Cuamba is pretty well-rounded but not very dangerous either. He comes from a striking base and he has very quick hands. He can fight evasively as well.
And he can wrestle too. His only regional loss came via submission when he was chasing early takedowns, and I am skeptical of his overall grappling game. But I’ve seen him pursue wrestling well in other matchups and have success.
Against a more physical and more powerful Oki, that was largely the game plan, but Cuamba was only successful on 1/6 attempts, and he wasn’t able to earn much control.
Against Almeida, who I consider a poor defensive wrestler, Cuamba landed 2/5 takedowns, both coming in the third round which won him that round but lost him the decision.
In general, I would classify Cuamba as more of a technician on the feet. He doesn’t throw with a ton of volume and his metrics thus far have been pretty weak. Of course he has power to knock guys out too, but he’s less aggressive and physical than much of the division, and he falls into the round winning category himself.
To this point, Cuamba is landing 3.0 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.38 at a 60 percent defensive rate. He’s landed 59, 33 and 43 sig. strikes in his last three fights if you include his bout on DWCS.
I honestly haven’t loved what I’ve seen from Cuamba and I think he’s kind of underperformed in both of his UFC matchups. He simply hasn’t been very effective. He’s been too slow paced, and he’s letting his opponents get ahead on the numbers, though Oki and Almeida are semi-dangerous strikers.
As a wrestler, I like that he’s been active but he still hasn’t been very effective there either. I just don’t think he’s a true UFC level fighter at this point but he does fall more in line with the talents of Romero, so I think we’re likely to get another competitive fight here.
I have mixed feelings about this matchup because I don’t know how you can come away feeling confident about either side.
I like the activity of Romero more. Even on short notice against Onama, Romero was able to land far more significant strikes than Cuamba has on any of his three tries. I don’t think Romero easily beats Cuamba standing, but I do favor his activity at this point.
I think Cuamba is the better wrestler of the two but Romero very often wrestles on the regional scene and I don’t think he’ll be uncomfortable there either. I would just favor Cuamba of the two to land takedowns and earn dominant position, but my feeling is that these two are likely to neutralize each other.
Both fighters seem very tough, and it makes sense that the fight is projected to go the distance at -210. I guess I will lean toward Romero based on activity but Cuamba will probably slow the pace down and I do think rounds will be very competitive.
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On DraftKings, I’m kind of leaning toward avoiding this fight because I think it will be competitive and semi-slow paced.
Romero is priced at 8.3k, and although I’ll pick him to win, I can’t really say he’s my preferred option of the two. Pacing is fine but I don’t expect him to land massive striking numbers, so he’ll still need takedowns or a knockout to really exceed value.
Romero is +255 to win ITD which is a much better line than Cuamba has, so perhaps that is the reason to prioritize him. Cuamba was knocked down by Almeida and Romero hurt Onama, so there’s some narrative based merit.
But Romero wasn’t winning by KO very often even on the regionals, and Cuamba is still defending strikes at 60 percent. My best guess is that Romero can do a bit of damage but it will be much tougher to actually finish the fight.
Maybe Romero decides to wrestle here. He didn’t even attempt a takedown against Onama though, and he was sometimes ineffective on the regionals. I think it’s possible he could land takedowns but I’m skeptical he can do anything with them.
In theory, Romero is a boom or bust option, and I just don’t love the scoring environment here, so I’m not going to play much of him. He has mild KO upside but he’s a secondary target at best and not a priority on a large slate.
Cuamba is priced at 7.9k and is probably too expensive for me to invest a lot into.
I do think he carries some wrestling equity though, but without domination, I’m not sure it matters either. His striking numbers have just been so weak, and his ITD line is worse at +500 which just doesn’t show much finishing equity at all.
So it may come down to whether or not Cuamba can land several takedowns, control Romero and squeeze out a finish. I’m not super high on the outcome but I do think 1-3 takedowns are certainly in play, so perhaps his floor is adequate.
It just feels like there are better fights and better overall targets on such a large slate, that I am not planning on prioritizing Cuamaba. I don’t expect him to be very popular at all so he’ll honestly fall more into the contrarian category. With some wrestling equity, he’s viable, but I just question the ceiling on both sides here and I won’t be too invested in the matchup as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Romero by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Chelsea Chandler vs. Joselyne Edwards
Fight Odds: Edwards -309, Chandler +250
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Edwards 9k, Chandler 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really ugly fight here in the bantamweight division between Joselyn Edwards and Chelsea Chandler.
I don’t mind Edwards. She came through for us against Tamires Vidal in her last matchup. I do think she is a bit green but I do think she has improved to a degree, especially as a grappler. She still is a somewhat low-level fighter but Edwards has some promise in her game. She is athletic and has some speed. I like her striking a bit. She can definitely beat fighters who lack in certain areas.
I consider Edwards a decent striker. She lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.19 in return. She has some decent volume which is good.
Edwards is just speedy and athletic as a striker, and has moderate power for a WMMA fighter. She really likes to utilize kicks to the body to score points, and clear distance and manage range. Managing range is probably what she does best. I don’t trust her as much in boxing range.
Edwards’ weakness has generally been her grappling but she has improved as a grappler. She was taken down five and four times by Clark and Rosa, and controlled somewhat easily for over 11 minutes in each fight. Pudilova also had top control success against Edwards.
Edwards has some submissions off her back and can use athleticism to scramble up when she gets space. She isn’t completely awful as a defensive wrestler anymore and now defends takedowns at 61 percent. I still think Edwards can be taken down and controlled but she has looked better lately.
Edwards is actually not bad if she gets top position and she has been offensively grappling more lately. She landed five takedowns against Cornolle and four against Vidal. She can get hooks in, and threaten on top and land GNP. Wrestling is at least a route she has shown she can go to now.
Edwards will be taking on Chelsea Chandler. Chandler is now 2-2 in the UFC, defeating Julija Stoliarenko and Josiane Nunes, but she lost dominantly to Norma Dumont and Yana Santos.
I think Chandler is best as a grappler who relies on pace and tenacity. She basically crashes the clinch and looks for takedowns to get top position and break her opponents with ground-and-pound or a submission.
I don’t actually consider Chandler’s takedowns good though. That is her problem. She lands 0.91 takedowns per 15 minutes and her takedowns have come against bad competition. She also didn’t even attempt a takedown really against Yana Santos which was bizarre.
Chandler’s top game is alright and somewhat heavy, but her entire grappling system is based on pace which eventually won’t work against girls who actually possess defensive grappling skill. I also don’t trust her defensive grappling. She is defending takedowns at 33 percent and was controlled by Norma Dumont for 8:58. Her defensive wrestling looked bad in that fight.
On the feet, Chandler doesn’t look good, and she just comes forward to give her opponents no space and looks to clinch. She is at least aggressive though and her opponents sometimes get frustrated with her pressure. She does have some okay hands at times. However, she is only landing 3.53 significant strikes per minute and most of her strikes have been coming on the ground. She is absorbing 4.06 significant strikes per minute.
Her distance striking numbers have not been great. I don’t trust her on the feet at all.
I don’t know about Chandler. I don’t think Chandler is actually good at fighting. I think the best part of her game is her aggression at times and her top game if she happens to get it there. However, I don’t always trust her ability to get the fight to the mat. She is moreso a girl who will be reliable to beat weak competition more than anything.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Edwards is a better striker. If this fight plays out at range, Edwards should be at an advantage. I also think Edwards could take Chandler down, and get in top position and obtain some top control. The offense in general can rack up for Edwards so I do think she will probably win. Edwards can probably just outstrike Chandler, mix in some occasional takedowns and win this fight. So Edwards is the clear pick for me.
I do think Chandler has a couple of ways to win though. Edwards is still pretty green off her back and I could see Chandler having a ton of success if she happens to get on top.
The issue is Chandler’s offensive takedowns suck and she doesn’t have a consistent way of obtaining top position. Perhaps Chandler can get on top though just because this is a low level fight, and a random dumb caught kick or low level reversal could occur. That gives Chandler a chance.
Furthermore, Chandler can clinch a bit and that could give her some competitive moments where Edwards won’t get a ton of room to operate from striking distance.
Overall though, I just trust the consistent striking of Edwards and her overall wrestling game more so I will pick Edwards to get this done.
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On DraftKings, I don’t mind this fight because Chandler is both aggressive, and defensively poor, which usually means that the winner will produce a fair amount of points.
I think it’s better stated that the winner should carry a high floor here. If Chandler wins, most likely takedowns, control and ground-and-pound will be involved. If Edwards wins, she could strike with Chandler and hurt her, and/or take her down as well. The pacing should be decent.
I’ve been super low on Chandler in recent fights because she is absolutely terrible technically, but in the bottom of the WMMA divisions, technique doesn’t matter as much. I don’t mind Edwards but she’s not an elite fighter and has had some defensive wrestling concerns in the past.
For that reason I do think Chandler is in play at 7.2k. I don’t love her, obviously, but her aggression and grappling equity do mean her ceiling is pretty strong. She’s scored 111 and 84 in her two wins, and I definitely think she can exceed value in a victory again.
However, Chandler is still a sizable dog and is only +800 ITD, so there’s no reason to be excited by this play and I would definitely limit my exposure. Most likely, coming in near the field or slightly overweight feels like the ideal stance.
In general Chandler is viable at 7.2k for her fighting style, but there’s no reason to be confident she can have success because she is a very poor fighter technically in most areas and the odds are indicative of that.
Edwards has a reasonable floor but I am less sure she will finish the fight and reach the ceiling necessary for her to contend for the optimal at this price tag.
There are a lot of big favorites in this range and I expect many of them to come through and put up big scores. Edwards has much more risk than others of simply winning by decision and scoring 80-90 which would not be enough for this price tag.
What we need from her is what we got from her in her last matchup. She did wrestle and landed four takedowns, along with lots of ground strikes, and she scored a late finish. It’s one of the best ways to score on DK and Edwards was able to put up 121 points.
I definitely think she can land takedowns here, but she is only +375 to win ITD which is very poor compared to other finishing metrics in this range. Chandler can probably survive on the mat.
I guess I don’t mind Edwards as a pricing play. I think the 9.3k-9.7k range is pretty stacked with upside, but it’s hard to pay up multiple times and Edwards is in a range that’s much less safe. If you simply cannot pay up further, I don’t mind Edwards as a secondary target to help save some salary.
It’s probably not the easiest fight for her to reach a ceiling and so there’s a bit of bust risk here, even of her potentially losing, but she does have wrestling equity and is facing a really poor defensive opponent, who should give her opportunities to score. In a fast-paced matchup, I’m cool using Edwards as a secondary target overall and maybe she’ll end up a bit sneaky if the public forces in a more stars/scrubs approach.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by Decision (Confidence=Medium)