UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya (8/18/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
Fight Odds: Adesanya -117, Du Plessis +102
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Adesanya 8.3k, Du Plessis 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
Here we go. A war of words will now turn into a fist fight, as Dricus Du Plessis will defend his newly claimed middleweight title against the former champion Israel Adesanya in Australia.
For a brief backstory, there have been a lot of heated exchanges between Du Plessis and Adesanya, largely due to the fact that Du Plessis still lives and trains out of his home country of South Africa, while Adesanya lives and trains out of New Zealand, rather than his home country of Nigeria. It’s gotten a bit uncomfortable but it’s worth noting that there’s some animosity between the two.
It’s also worth noting that Du Plessis just defeated Sean Strickland to earn his championship, while Strickland made easy work of Adesanya in 2023, which is the last time we’ve seen Adesanya in the cage.
Many were stunned by that defeat, though it wasn’t too difficult to see coming. While Adesanya is one of the best kickboxers in the sport, he’s always thrown limited volume, and his offensive grappling has essentially been non-existent.
Currently, Adesanya averages 3.93 significant strikes landed per minute, while he absorbs 3.11 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate. He’s fought five rounds plenty of times, and has topped out at 94, 86, 116, 79 and 96 sig. strikes landed in his most recent decisions.
It’s barely enough. And against an opponent like Sean Strickland who will throw out endless volume, Adesanya could not match his pace and allowed Strickland to walk him down and hurt him on multiple occasions.
Du Plessis is a kickboxer himself, but I don’t consider him in the same class of talent as Adesanya, or most in the upper tier of the division. He’s largely power based, and he leaves plenty of openings when he attacks.
For much of his UFC career, his body language over an extended period has been awful. He looks absolutely gassed at times, but has pushed through it well.
Against Strickland in five rounds, Du Plessis managed his workload much better and his cardio looked improved. It was a great sign of things to come, though I’m still doubtful of his talents to a degree.
I don’t care to dissect that fight in-depth but you can make a pretty strong case that Strickland deserved to win it. Strickland outlanded Du Plessis 157 to 81, but Du Plessis was typically the fighter marching forward and attempting big shots. Judges don’t actually care about damage anyway, and they only judge fights based on what they perceive, which is why attempted volume and pressure are amongst some of the best round-winning tools to have.
Still, Du Plessis attempted 354 sig. strikes in that fight against Strickland and had success kicking at his legs as well. For context, Adesanya only attempted 271 sig. strikes against Strickland last time out.
I’d say this is my biggest concern at the moment with Adesanya, in relation to this matchup against Du Plessis.
I don’t have any doubts that Adesanya is the more technical striker of the two and probably by a significant margin. The way Du Plessis lunges forward to throw 1/2s in hopes of a knockout doesn’t look pretty, but if you’re attempting those strikes while your opponent is attempting nothing, it’s still an advantage.
Additionally, Du Plessis is definitely the more powerful striker of the two. He’s earned knockdowns in four of his seven UFC bouts, and I respect his skills in that sense. He has the ability to hurt anyone in the division.
Adesanya’s durability is OK, but it’s not elite. He was hurt by Kelvin Gastelum back in the day, he was knocked out by Alex Pereria in 2022 and he was knocked down most recently by Strickland.
It is possible that the power of Du Plessis, despite the lack of technique, is enough to land some bigger shots and put Adesanya down. And conversely, Du Plessis leaves enough openings that I fully believe Adesanya can hurt him as well.
Grappling wise, this will probably be a wash, though I think Du Plessis will be the more aggressive wrestler of the two.
He’s coming off a six-takedown performance against Strickland and that’s the second time he landed six takedowns in a UFC fight, but he doesn’t do anything with them. He was only able to control Strickland for two minutes on six takedowns landed, so essentially Strickland was just getting right back up.
Adesanya defends takedowns at 77 percent, so he might give up one or two. I don’t think it will be hugely impactful though unless he’s already badly hurt or tired. Du Plessis actually only defends takedowns at 40 percent, but Adesanya never wrestles so I won’t project much there.
Realistically, the winner of this fight will be the winner of the striking minutes, and/or until someone gets badly hurt to end the fight. I think you can make the case for either side personally, but I find myself leaning toward Adesanya.
The volume is a major concern for me, but one of Strickland’s best attributes is that he’s constantly throwing non-power shots like the jab, and he’s just putting out feelers. Du Plessis is kicking from the outside and then trying to kill you with power shots.
I just don’t think those power shots are likely to land much, like they didn’t land against Strickland. And it might even help Adesanya land counter shots. I do like Du Plessis’ kicks at distance but Adesanya can check kicks and Adesanya can kick from distance as well, where Strickland really cannot.
So although Du Plessis may try to land more and want to land more, I don’t expect him to get far ahead on the numbers, and I think we might see a slower paced fight which is usually what happens when Adesanya is involved.
It’s still likely to be competitive though. It’s hard for me to get around that fight. Adesanya just doesn’t throw enough volume to stand out in rounds unless he’s hurting you badly, and Du Plessis coming forward may give him the better optics. Adesanya will be the home crowd favorite in Australia though, which honestly is pretty impactful for scoring.
Ultimately, projecting this fight with a competitive betting line makes sense to me.
I’m going to lean toward Adesanya on a more narrative basis because he’s had a long time to sit out and prepare for this, at home, against an opponent who he is better than. Du Plessis has some tools to make rounds competitive though, and probably has the edge in pure power and volume attempts.
Both sides have knockout potential but I don’t see a massive advantage for either, and there’s so much variance in striking exchanges that I’m willing to consider that a wash.
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On DraftKings, I’ve been hesitant to attack Adesanya fights for the majority of his career and I once again find myself in an uncomfortable position when analyzing this matchup.
The difference is that usually, Adesanya is a big favorite and is priced into the 9k range. Now priced at 8.3k with Du Plessis at 7.9k, the winner has a much better chance to exceed value and compete with the optimal lineup.
Adesanya in five-round decision wins has scored 86, 75, 85, 49 (yes this is real), 117 and 82. So you can see why I’ve been hesitant, as this trend was pretty easy to pick up on early in his career.
At 8.3k though, a score in the mid-80s feels a bit better than it does at 9.3k. Still, I am not projecting Adesanya for a ton of wrestling equity, and even if he were to land 120 sig. strikes, we’re likely looking at a DK result of 80.
He is also only +240 to win ITD and officially, Du Plessis has not been knocked down in any UFC fight yet.
It’s not an outright recommendation, but you could sell me on the idea to come in super light on Adesanya once again, either hoping he loses or wins by decision. Either of those outcomes probably lead to a score below 90 points, and an optimal miss.
He does have some KO equity though, and a pretty strong floor in a win compared to his price tag. Having secondary exposure here makes sense with a larger portfolio and is definitely the safer call.
He likely won’t be super chalk but with massive name value and a good price tag, Adesanya will still be somewhat popular publicly and I’ll probably aim to be near the field, though underweight.
Du Plessis may actually end up more chalky at 7.9k, and now that I think about it, with a great box score attached to his name, he will almost certainly be played at a higher percentage.
I guess it makes sense, as Du Plessis can wrestle, he can throw higher volume and he often wins by KO. He’s scored very well because of it, topping 114 DK points in each of his last four wins.
Now he’s a slight dog at +102 to win, and has the superior ITD line as well at +160. He will rate out better than Adesanya overall, and is honestly the more intriguing fighter to target because of his upside.
If Du Plessis wins, I am much more confident that will exceed value and contend for the optimal lineup. While I don’t really like him as a talent and won’t actually pick him to win, the betting line is super competitive and it’s not a spot where I’d try to talk you out of rostering him.
I think I personally will still lean against playing him heavily, due to the matchup and his public popularity. It may even be a good spot to again come in underweight, hoping he loses in what’s probably the toughest matchup of his professional career.
But at 7.9k, in the main event, there’s still reasonable upside and he can be viewed as a strong secondary (or primary) target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Adesanya by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
Fight Odds: Erceg -164, Kara-France +141
Odds to Finish: +185
DraftKings Salaries: Erceg 8.8k, Kara-France 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Kai Kara-France is entering his 7th year on the active roster and is a guy who’s struggled to get over the hump against the top of the 125 division – he’s 7-4 in the UFC and 24-11 as a pro. Steve Erceg is a hometown Australian talent who came a bit out of nowhere. But in less than a rolling 12-month time frame, he worked his way into title shot in May where he came up short against Alejandre Pantoja – he’s 3-1 in the UFC and 12-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
KKF is a higher volume striker who comes from a kickboxing background and trains out of the City Kickboxing gym with the likes of Israel Adesanya and Dan Hooker. He lands 4.6 SLpM at 39%.
In that, he’s been able to outpace all of his opponents in his wins with the exception of Paiva, who outlanded KKF by nine significant strikes. He does his best work when he’s coming forward but has shown he can fight off the back foot effectively as well in certain outings, but not all.
The issue I’ve always had with KKF is that he will accept the back foot at times, which did give him struggles in the Paiva, Royval and Moreno fights. Defensively, he eats 3.2 SApM and doesn’t have the greatest optics always – he does defend at 64% though which is a good mark.
For example, he edged Paiva on the cards in their fight, out-struck DLR by 31 strikes but also dropped a round in that fight, and then against Moreno in the 1st fight specifically, he lost a UD as the pace and pressure was just too much. Even against Nam (a fight he won 30-27), the fight was still competitive and he was walked down for a majority of it.
But Kai does have power for the weight class, possessing six knockdowns in the UFC. He’s also been knocked down four times to boot which needs to be noted – he actually looked like he was starting to come on in the last Moreno fight but ate a nasty liver kick.
Overall, KKF is a solid striker but has a style that can lead to tighter margins when he’s not finishing.
Erceg is a grappler by base but has shown some pretty respectable boxing skills so far in the UFC.
Regionally, he’s traditionally not the guy who’s going to throw a crazy high volume of strikes necessarily, but he does pick and choose his shots well. He’s still a bit difficult to gauge because he hasn’t faced a high volume of strikes back his way, but he tends to manage distance decently when at range.
The issue I have with him is that he tends to stand very upright/rigid and can also fight linearly. We have seen him hit cleanly in multiple fights but specifically when he fought Haddon in one of his extended fights where he did get more tired, he started to get hit cleaner.
We also saw both Costa and Schnell land some big shots on him within the pocket – that’s where his defense is a lot more suspect.
In his defense, he’s shown some pop in his shots despite not being a perennial power threat – he does seem to be comfortable as a striker despite his grappling base.
I thought him striking competitively with Dvorak in his debut was impressive as Dvorak isn’t an easy guy to look good against – he cracked Dvorak a couple times as well. He definitely faced some adversity in his next outing against Costa where both guys hurt each other, but he did outstrike Costa 74 to 54 and won in the clinch.
He killed Schnell which is what it is because Schnell has no chin, but he also took the best shots of Pantoja last time and outlanded him to the head 87 to 75.
However, both Dvorak and Costa took rounds in those fights which needs to be noted.
Overall, Erceg’s got some clean boxing and doesn’t have pillows in his hands, but I also think he’s a guy that does have a KO loss coming in the near future, now facing higher level talents.
The wrestling/grappling component:
KKF does come from a wrestling background despite his base being kickboxing.
But he only lands 0.6 TDs/15 minutes at 39% and hasn’t really had any extended floor success over a past opponent in the UFC. He primarily uses it for defensive purposes, giving credence to his 87% TDD which is very good.
But because he does play behind the black line, opponents have been able to get in on his hips, but he’s largely been able to defend.
Despite his TDD mark though, he has ended up on his back in multiple fights, though he’s largely been defensively responsible outside of the Royval fight where he was actually submitted via guillotine off a TDA. He did fight out of early omaplata positions though.
But the Bontorin fight was concerning as he was taken down and controlled for a good chunk of the round before KOing Bontorin at the bell. We also saw Askarov take the 1st round off KKF with a backpack.
However, he also stuffed 12 of 14 TDs in that fight and Askarov is one of the better wrestler/grappler archetypes in the weight class.
Overall, he’s largely been able to stay upright and be fine when on bottom but even aside from the Royval fight, he has been caught in moderate choke attempts before.
Erceg’s a BJJ black belt and an okay wrestler despite his primary jiu-jitsu base.
I don’t think he’s anything special but what I do like is his timing to shots and does a good job of reacting to what opponents are doing – he falls more into the “hustler” category in comparison to being some tactician in being able to beat guys to positions.
In that, he can hit a multitude of TDs but he really excels from the body lock to either trip or drag his opponents down. I think one of Ecreg’s better attributes is his transitional game in the sense that if you give the guy an inch, he can take a mile.
He’s going to be very aggressive in terms of working into dominant positions or capitalizing on opportunities his opponents give to him.
Given his base, we haven’t seen many guys look to pursue TDs against him but he’s not immune to being taken down as well. Going back to the Haddon fight that did extend, he did get more tired in that fight despite winning but his shots became much more sloppy and less processed.
Dvorak got some top time on Erceg, but he was mainly fending off subs or sweeps – similar to Costa where Erceg did a good job of working back up and out of positions.
He ultimately got out grappled by Pantoja, conceding 9 TDs on 19 attempts with 8 minutes of control to drop the fight. A late mistake ultimately cost him the fight, but he scrambled better than most with Pantoja.
Overall, I like Erceg’s ground game, but he will probably struggle against physically and technically stronger positional players.
I like Erceg in this fight. You have a guy that’s going to push offensively striking wise and is competent to scramble and be better in those positions.
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On DraftKings, I have mild interest in the fight due to pacing but it doesn’t feel like a priority matchup compared to some others on the slate.
The fight as a whole is -225 to go the distance, which is one major concern. Without a finish, I’m not sure we’ll see enough volume for either fighter to be optimal.
Erceg is priced up to 8.8k which is more than I’d like to pay. He’s fallen into the -160 or -150 range on some books, so he is technically overpriced compared to others in this range.
Kara-France isn’t great, but he’s good and has competed against a lot of elite competition over the years. He’s probably competent enough to limit some of Erceg’s attack.
Erceg has won two decisions in the UFC and he scored 87 and 70, which isn’t great for the price. If he’d beaten Pantoja he would have only scored 89 as well.
I do think Erceg has some grappling equity, and he can throw decent volume, but it’s probably not going to matter unless he can couple it with a finish. He’s only +275 to win ITD, so he’s just not going to rate out super well at this price.
Still, I don’t hate Erceg. Kara-France has been dropped by three different opponents, and he’s been subbed once. I think Erceg could hurt him or could maybe jump on a choke. It’s not a black or white situation.
Am I going to prioritize him at 8.8k though? No, there’s no reason to. But assuming he’s not super chalky, perhaps he could be a little bit sneaky. I don’t mind secondary exposure but ultimately he feels a little dependent on the finish and that’s not a super likely outcome. I most likely will end up fairly light.
Kara-France is priced down to 7.4k, so he’s technically the value side at +140 to win, but I doubt he gets played much.
People like Erceg, and KKF hasn’t come through in a while. Even in his last decision win, KKF only scored 53 points.
I don’t think he has much wrestling equity here so you’re betting on a tight striking-based decision, or a KO. He’s only +500 to win ITD and volume isn’t likely enough to reach a ceiling.
Perhaps there’s some merit to targeting Kara-France on win equity alone. While 70 points in a victory wouldn’t be great, we’re not expecting many cheap fighters to win this week. He has a shot to be the lowest priced dog to win, and that alone has some value.
But there’s not a great upside case here, and I still do prefer chasing upside in tournaments. Maybe I’ll consider him as a value based secondary target but I don’t expect myself or the field to be aggressive in owning him.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Erceg by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
Fight Odds: Gamrot -324, Hooker +260
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Gamrot 9.3k, Hooker 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a very interesting matchup here as Mateusz Gamrot will square off against Dan Hooker this weekend.
Gamrot is pretty good. He comes from a grappling background as he wrestled in his homeland of Poland. He also is a solid no gi BJJ competitor who has won several tournaments in Europe, and has competed against some of the best grapplers in the world in ADCC. So he is a well-rounded grappler and it shows in his fights.
Gamrot lands 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 15 takedowns per fight. Therefore, he is literally attempting a takedown every single minute which is a style that I love. I also love the style even more if someone has the cardio to implement it and Gamrot definitely does. This guy landed two takedowns in both rounds four and five vs Arman Tsarukyan, so Gamrot’s cardio is clearly a strength of his.
I don’t think Gamrot’s top control is great but he has generally been trying to control really good grapplers. I definitely think he can control lesser grapplers in this division.
The weakness of Gamrot’s game is his striking. He only lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.07 in return. He does defend strikes at a decent 59 percent. Gamrot isn’t a terrible striker and he does have a little bit of power. However, he just doesn’t put up a ton of activity.
He only landed 33, 52, and 57 significant strikes in his three fights that went to three round decisions. They were against good competition, but I just don’t totally love that activity upside. He’s also been knocked down four times in nine UFC fights which is a mild concern.
Again, he is capable as he even struck competitively with Rafael Fiziev. He just doesn’t have a high ceiling as a striker though as his volume is just a bit limited.
Gamrot will be taking on UFC veteran Dan Hooker. As you would expect from a City Kickboxing product, Hooker is mostly a striker and a pretty good one. Hooker lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.76 in return.
That is good volume and Hooker is capable of landing a lot of strikes. He also just had a very impressive win against Jalin Turner in a fight where many people counted him out.
Hooker is still absorbing a lot and defending strikes at a poor 51 percent. So I do worry about his defense and his fights are a bit nerve racking to bet on because striking fights are high-variance, especially when both men are landing often.
I considered Hooker a pretty durable guy but he has been knocked out recently by both Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen. His durability held up against Turner, but I am a little more nervous about him going against heavy hitters as I just hate when guys take damage because my confidence in their durability decreases.
Hooker doesn’t wrestle all that often and only lands 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a decent grappler though. Hooker also defends takedowns at 80 percent which is solid. He is also a pretty tough guy to submit.
I have overall always respected the defensive grappling ability of Hooker. I haven’t seen him controlled all that often by many people. He hasn’t gone up against a ton of volume wrestlers either though.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think this line might be a little wide. I don’t think Gamrot has the best top control and I do think Hooker is tough to take and hold down. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Hooker defended some takedowns or got to his feet and got some stretches of striking where I do consider him better. So I honestly think he is live to win and to have some success overall.
However, Gamrot is just so relentless and attempts SO many takedowns. So I do think in 15 minutes, he will still land a handful of takedowns which gives him a high floor. He also can still probably strike competitively on the feet. So he isn’t completely screwed if he can’t control Hooker. So I will pick Gamrot to win. This is still an interesting fight though and I do think the line is wide though.
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On DraftKings, I’m pretty torn, as I think Gamrot is due for some future regression.
Primarily, my issue is that he’s been knocked down four times in nine fights, but he’s never been knocked out. He’s actually won two of the four fights in which he’s been knocked down. That feels a little lucky to me, and I don’t have a ton of faith in him in striking exchanges.
Dan Hooker, while not being an elite talent, has been in wars, and he can throw down. In a pure kickboxing fight, I think he can beat Gamrot and I think he has knockout equity.
Conversely, Hooker is defending takedowns at 80 percent but against who? Makhachev took him down and subbed him in two minutes. Jalin Turner got him down very easily while being hurt and tired late in their last fight. Otherwise, Hooker has only been put on his back a couple times since 2016.
Gamrot attempting so many takedowns is a benefit and probably means he will get Hooker down.
Gamrot is coming off a fight where he was dropped early and lost round one, but still managed 11 takedowns and scored 131 points on DK. It wasn’t a good performance in real life, but he absolutely smashed on DK.
I highly doubt Hooker can get up 10 times though. I think 4-5 takedowns is much more likely than 10+. Gamrot is also only +290 to win ITD which is pretty poor at 9.3k.
Still, grappling scores very well and there’s some binary elements to the matchup. A win for Gamrot will come on the mat, with lots of grappling, and it gives him a very strong floor and ceiling.
At 9.3k, it’s hard to be sure he’s a great play. I’m not even sure he wins. And then there’s Nolan and Jenkins above him who also likely score well in wins. But considering Gamrot is cheaper than them and has an elite grappling ceiling given his style, he’ll rate out well and can be rostered at a high clip if you’d like to be aggressive.
I don’t consider anyone in this range a clear stand out, but Gamrot does have the most grappling equity. I expect he’ll be popular given his box scores and style, and mild-moderate exposure makes sense when salary allows you to pay up.
Hooker at 6.9k has an extremely low floor and won’t rate out very well.
He’s likely to end up on his back for a lot of the fight, and even in striking exchanges, Gamrot won’t yield a lot of volume. You very likely need early damage which would lead to an eventual finish.
Hooker is only +525 to win ITD and he’s +260 to win. I think the line is wide but it’s still tough to justify lots of exposure.
Essentially, Hooker still falls into the punt category by default, and you don’t have to play him. But I do think he’s a step above the punts priced below him, and again, Gamrot has been shaky at times and he’s been knocked down a bunch.
I wouldn’t mind low-end exposure here and/or being a bit above the field percentage, but Hooker still qualifies as a boom or bust punt target and one that’s not very likely to hit.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gamrot by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Fight Odds: Rozenstruik -232, Tuivasa +195
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Rozenstruik 8.9k, Tuivasa 7.3k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun heavyweight slugfest here between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa.
Rozenstruik is coming off of a dominant main event win over Shamil Gaziev. I thought Rozenstruik looked good in that fight and gave Gaziev a veteran lesson. He outlanded Gaziev 127-22 in significant strikes, and just absolutely dominated him and finished the fight via doctor stoppage late.
Rozenstruik is a kickboxer through and through and comes from a kickboxing background. I consider him a solid striker. He lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.78 in return. He is a technical striker and can mix in a good variety of kicks and punches. He sometimes strikes at a slower pace than I like but I still respect his skills, and he does have power as well. He can compete against most strikers in this weight class.
Rozenstruik is also just pretty durable as well. He was knocked out by Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov, but he is a pretty tough guy. He also has great cardio for a big man and can fight for a hard three rounds with no issue. His cardio looked really good against Gaziev.
Rozenstruik doesn’t really grapple much offensively and has actually never landed a takedown in the UFC. So I don’t expect grappling to be a path to victory for him.
Rozenstruik defends takedowns at a decent 75 percent. He can be held down on his back, but he knows basic guard techniques off his back and can generally survive if he is taken down. So he isn’t a fish out of water on the mat.
Rozenstruik will be taking on the beloved Tai Tuivasa. Tuivasa is a brawling striker. He is not very skilled, but he is aggressive and willing to throw down.
He lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.05 in return. He defends strikes at a poor 43 percent. He has fought great competition so I do give him some slack. However, this guy is just not great technically and is defensively liable. He has also been getting hurt and knocked out a lot lately. He has lost four straight fights. Technical strikers can have a field day with him.
Tuivasa has never landed a takedown in the UFC and is a very poor defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 57 percent and can get violated on the mat. So he is just poor defensively in all areas. Anytime he ends up on his back, he is at risk to get finished.
Tuivasa is dangerous though and he is aggressive. He has a lot of knockout power and can surely take advantage of variance in this division and knock people dead.
As far as this matchup goes, Tuivasa definitely has a knockout path to victory as Rozenstruik has been knocked out before and Tuivasa has power. If he clipped Rozenstruik, I wouldn’t be surprised. I mean Tuivasa hurt Cyril Gane so he is capable and nothing would surprise me in a heavyweight fight.
However, Rozenstruik is generally very durable and is a more defensively skilled and technical striker than Tuivasa. I think the more exchanges we have in this fight, the more Rozenstruik will pull away. He will probably eventually hurt Tuivasa. I also think he will just land more if this fight extends as his defensive skills are better.
Although I am not expecting it as neither guy has landed a takedown before. I do think Rozenstruik is a better grappler too at least from a defensive standpoint so that is another advantage here. If he hurt Tuivasa and ended up on top, he could probably finish Tuivasa.
Overall, I just expect Rozenstruik to win this fight if he doesn’t get randomly knocked out. I will pick him to survive as well, as he is generally a tough guy as well. So I think he should take care of business this weekend.
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On DraftKings, this will be a classic boom or bust HW matchup.
Rozenstruik is priced up to 8.9k, and he probably needs a first-round KO to be optimal. He’s simply too low volume to hit a ceiling in an extended fight, especially considering he has zero wrestling equity.
Rozenstruik has scored 94, 90, 97 and 93 in knockout wins that have gone past round one. Those are still OK performances, and perhaps give him some chance at the optimal lineup, but it’s far from a guarantee.
And that’s really my concern. Not only does he need to win by KO, but relying on it to come in round one is tricky. He’s still -155 to win ITD though, which is a great line and certainly puts him in play for tournaments.
In any typical matchup I fear that Rozenstruik will choose to counter, and fight at a slow pace, so that’s another concern. However here in Australia, against a down-to-bang home-crowd opponent in Tuivasa, I do think there’s a chance Tuivasa comes forward recklessly, which may give Rozenstruik additional early opportunities. There are still degrees of risk though.
Ultimately, this just isn’t the type of play I can take a large stand on. The window is far too thin for Rozenstruik to be optimal, in a fight that’s already very high-variance. But he rates out quite well and has KO equity within his style, and I do think he can accomplish the task. I consider him a high-upside target but he’ll fall more into the secondary category due to the risk.
Tuivasa at 7.3k is a solid, high-upside target though not one who is extremely likely to hit.
He doesn’t grapple, his metrics are really poor and he gets knocked down a lot. Again, he’s an entertainer, and I expect he’ll be willing to throw himself into the fire which is half the battle.
Perhaps he can hurt Rozenstruik early and win by KO. In that outcome, he can be optimal. He is actually +215 to win ITD which is a very strong line for this price tag, and he can be considered for that reason.
Rozenstruik has only been knocked down once in 13 UFC fights though and that came against Francis Ngannou, so it’s not like he has a large history of taking damage. There’s also the risk that the fight extends, where there will be minimal volume landed, and it’s possible Tuivasa will still fail to reach a ceiling then.
Regardless, the fight is -600 to end ITD and Tuivasa is cheap. He’s worth a bit of exposure for the KO upside. I don’t think it’s a very likely outcome though and I’ll consider him a lower-end secondary target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rozenstruik by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
Fight Odds: Prates -367, Jingliang +289
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Prates 9.2k, Jingliang 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jingliang Li’s now in his 11th year on the active roster and will be returning from a near 2-year layoff after lingering issues with discs in his spine – he’s 11-6 in the UFC and 19-8 as a pro. Carlos Prates is a Contender Series alum who’s made good on his first two appearances this year – he’s 19-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Li’s a sound striker and works more in a kickboxing-based style. He was a lot more reckless early on his UFC run but has dialed it back a bit and has found much more technical success in recent years.
Even with that, he’s still shown to be higher output, landing 4.5 sig. strikes per minute at 42% and 5.1 distance strikes per minute at 41%.
He’s definitely had some stinkers against guys like Matthews and Magny but has also gone out there and beaten talented strikers in Dos Santos and Ponzinibbio.
Outside of Li’s consistent work rate and improved technical striking, one of his more positive attributes is that has power for the division, with 10 UFC knockdowns.
However, in that past brawling nature, it has left him susceptible to shots overextending where he’s been knocked down multiple times himself – the last one coming in 2018 though which is a testament to him reigning things in more in recent years.
His defensive numbers are okay but not great, eating 3.8 sig. strikes per minute at 57%, but is better than the division average eating 4 distance strikes per minute at 62%. So, his distance ratio is positive in totality at +1.1/minute.
Overall, despite touting evolution in recent years, his newer adopted style has led him to not really separating minute to minute outside of the bigger moments, but it’s kept him more defensively cognoscente at the same time.
Prates comes from a striking background where in addition to having a healthy amount of MMA experience, he also has over 100 kickboxing/muay thai fights.
He’s a lanky guy for the division, standing 6’1” with a 78” reach – his body type and how he moves is similar to an Ignacio Bahamondes. In terms of his general style, the best way I would classify Prates is as a sniper.
He works at a slower, more methodical pace so you’re not going to get a crazy amount of volume from him, but he’s super accurate in everything he throws to where he makes his strikes count.
Additionally, he’s very diverse in what he throws between punches, kicks, knees and elbows as a guy who doesn’t discriminate. It’s in that diverse arsenal and picking up on reads to where Prates has found lots of success in finishing opponents with 14 of his 19 pro wins coming via KO.
I’ve seen him KO guys with straights, check counters, knees, head kicks and jabs – he’s not a guy opponents want to be eating flush shots from.
Defensively, he can fight with his hands down but will guard up in flurries and circles away from the power side of opponents which I like.
Just given his length and general rangy style, he’s not a guy that’s traditionally eating many strikes and has generally been durable to date outside of one KO loss back in 2017.
However, he was losing on the feet in his debut against Giles as the blitzes of Giles gave him some issues, and he also kind of just let Giles kick him before finding the kill shot at the end of the 2nd round.
Overall, I dislike Prates’ pace to be honest and that will get him into trouble eventually, but the guy’s also crazy long for the division and incredibly dangerous which does put a bit of “band aid” on him as a lower paced fighter.
How it plays out: The obvious talking point off the top is that Li will be at a massive length disadvantage of 7”. I’d say one of the more comparable opponents that Li’s fought to Prates in terms of striking style would be Dos Santos. Li knocked him down 3 times and won the fight. However, the margins minute to minute at range were very competitive.
It also goes without saying that Prates is a much longer fighter than Dos Santos so it’s not a direct comparison. But we also saw Li struggle at range with Magny when that fight was there, and he was the longest opponent that Li had fought to date. Metrics wise, Li is in this fight but my concern is that he’s either not going to do enough (given size/style parity) or is going to start overextending to get to Prates which is what was getting him clipped in the earlier portions of his career.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Despite being a base striker, Li’s shown to be a capable entry wrestler as a guy who will look to mix TDs into his fights.
However, he’s not a volume wrestler, only landing 1.2 TDs/15 minutes at 41% and has always struggled with ground control as he’s more so looking to prioritize GNP which gives his opponents space to work up.
He has four pro wins via submission, but they all came pre-UFC and he hasn’t even attempted a submission whilst in the promotion – not a grappling threat.
His TDD sits at 60% as he has struggled with his defensive wrestling at points in multiple fights, and is being out controlled at a 2:1 ratio. We obviously saw Chimaev rag doll him, but no shame as we know Chimaev is a savage.
He tried to wrestle Magny but failed, got outwrestled himself and lost in the clinch scenarios heavily.
In general, this isn’t Li’s strong suit having been submitted twice, but he isn’t “lost” on the ground as he’s still only conceding 16% of his overall fight time being controlled which isn’t a large percentage.
Prates is a BJJ black belt with three of his 19 pro wins coming via submission.
However, we haven’t seen much of him on the ground in the last five years and I don’t think I’ve seen him shoot a conventional TD.
It was his last pro loss to a Dagestani in Abdulaev where wrestling was the ultimate decider in the bout as he got taken down in every round and was controlled for the bulk of the fight.
However, he did threaten with a viable armbar in RD 1 and took the back off a nice sweep in the 3rd but lost the position.
In other regional fights, he’s been able to stay upright and stuff TDs digging underhooks and keeping a wide base, so it does appear that he made a concerted effort to up his TDD since his fight with the Russian back in 2019.
We did see Ramirez take him down on DWCS where he got roughly a minute of control, but Prates hit a nice elevator sweep. But he’s stayed upright in both of his UFC bouts to date, stuffing a total of 4 TDAs from both Giles and Radtke who are capable wrestlers – he did get stuck against the fence a bit against Giles though.
So, my semi concern with Prates in the bit we have of him on the ground is that he does struggle to maintain top positions off reversals, and has some tendencies to play guard in either threatening subs or looking for sweeps in comparison to just generally looking to work up. That may run him into issues at the UFC level when facing a stronger positional player. But his TDD mechanics look very improved.
How it plays out: I don’t think the ground will play much of a factor in this fight. I’d assume Li will shoot a TD or two but given some of the defensive improvements I’ve seen from Prates, Li’s going to struggle to get him down. Even if he does, as noted, Li’s never been strong from top positions and Prates on paper is the better grappler of the two.
Interesting fight as Li is a step up in competition for Prates from Giles and Radtke. Outside of the obvious concern of Li getting bonked, there’s heavy narrative concern in that we haven’t seen him in two years, he’s 36 years old now and has had more serious health issues. With all that being said, Li hits hard as well and if Prates doesn’t find the kill shot and the find extends, Li profiles as a very live underdog. Given spot/size though and Prates being the more diverse finisher of the two, he will be my pick to win.
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On DraftKings, I can and will make the case for either side but ultimately it’s probably not a fight I’ll be heavily exposed to.
Prates is the obvious target at 9.2k, and he has definite knockout upside. He’s won both times in the UFC by KO and he’s scored 106 and 95 points, which is pretty strong. I do think he’s a KO threat and I think he can win by KO in this matchup.
My main issue is that Prates doesn’t throw enough volume and he doesn’t grapple. This means that even in KOs, he will have trouble reaching a ceiling. While his DK scores have been strong, 106 in a RD 1 KO is not elite, and 95 in a round 2 KO isn’t elite either. That RD 1 KO came with only seconds left, and had it gotten to round two, he likely would have busted.
So it’s like.. not only do you need an early KO, but it’s likely that a RD 2 or RD 3 KO won’t get you to 100. And even if he does win by KO in round 1, is 105 going to be enough on this slate with some high-end grapplers and finishers in a similar price range? I’m just not sold on it.
I haven’t been targeting Prates much personally because of this risk. And it’s a similar situation here. He has a decent opponent in front of him, and one who could absolutely test him. There’s still KO upside and Prates has strong metrics at -135 to win ITD, but I just worry that he’s so dependent on the early kill, and he won’t throw lots of volume, and even if he gets the job done, it still may not pay off.
Especially as he could be popular at this price tag this weekend, I’m going to aim to prioritize other fighters personally. But I have no problems if you prefer Prates as he’s dangerous with strong metrics – just know the risk you are getting involved with.
Jingliang at 7k could win the fight. Prates was losing rounds to Trevin Giles in his debut and Giles isn’t good. Jingliang is a very experienced kickboxer and a divisional veteran.
At the same time, he’s a big dog. He hasn’t fought in a couple of years. There’s risk he looks bad and risk he just can’t close distance against a dangerous striker. The upside for Jingliang may be another competitive decision where volume isn’t pushed, and I think a 70-pointer is in play.
Jingliang does have some wrestling equity, but probably not a ton. He has some KO equity, but not a ton there either at +490 ITD. So my fear in getting involved with Jingliang is that sure, he has talent, but we might see a low scoring first round or he might just not have the tools to really threaten Prates, and then it’s a waste of exposure.
At 7k I think he’s fine to a degree, and probably better than your standard punt in terms of win equity. I’m not sold on his fantasy ceiling though and so I have to consider him a low-end target because of it.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Prates by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
Fight Odds: Tafa -122, Walker +106
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Tafa 8.2k, Walker 8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
We’ve got a battle of younger brothers. Junior Tafa is the younger brother of fellow UFC heavyweight Justin Tafa, whose job may be on the line Saturday with a loss – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 5-2 as a pro. Valter Walker is the younger brother of current UFC light heavyweight Johnny Walker who dropped the ball in his debut this past April, albeit semi-controversially – he’s 11-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Tafa comes from a kickboxing background where he was ranked at one point in time in the GLORY promotion.
He’s still new to MMA, having made his pro debut just a few years ago, so we don’t have a ton of footage to go off of. In what we do have, despite his credentials, he’s not the most technical guy in the world as he has often shown reckless components.
But his aggression and power has proven early career success, having scored KOs in all five of his pro wins.
We didn’t see much distance time from him in his debut with Usman but in the limited times it was there, Tafa was hurting Usman in virtually every exchange and within some of the dirty boxing quarters, despite not being able to put him down.
More recently, he put Porter down early which wasn’t a shocking outcome and then got his leg chewed by De Lima early, which made him a sitting duck to where De Lima ultimately finished. In his defense, he took that fight on crazy short notice to replace his brother and De Lima’s an established heavyweight talent.
Overall, he more so profiles as a traditional heavyweight brawler that opponents don’t want to give many openings to, and may be difficult to get out of there with punches standing.
Walker’s a large heavyweight standing 6’6” with a 78” reach.
I’m unsure of his official background but his striking style appears to be more muay thai based. We don’t have a ton to go off of, but he can be more aggressive earlier in fights. However, as they progress, his volume drops considerably as he begins to slow.
He doesn’t really throw in combinations and hasn’t shown to have much power in his hands despite his size.
He’s actually more dangerous with kicks at space, as well as clinch knees as he’ll throw checks if guys try to duck under him or throw the occasional sneaky head kick. I went back and watched some of his earlier fights as well where he looked a bit quicker than he is now, and it seems he’s put on some more negative size in recent years which is potentially a contributing factor – although I’ll address a potential new development there later on.
Defensively, he’s not very good given his largely wooden approach to where guys can land cleanly on him, but he has taken shots well to date in his defense.
Overall, I’d like to see more of Walker on the feet, but I don’t project an overt amount of standing success for him in the UFC past the lower tiers as a guy who profiles do be down on activity, and may not take shots as well facing a better caliber of competition.
How it plays out: Tafa should have a decent advantage on the feet here despite me not thinking he’s some technical savant that also lacks defense. But he profiles as the guy who’s more likely to come forward, is quicker, has more raw KO power and is probably more durable.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Given Tafa’s striking base, he’s not a guy you can anticipate going out and shoot TDs as he wants to stand and strike. We did see him get taken down sparingly on the regional scene.
The main fight to hit on was his debut against Usman where Usman only went 2.12 on TDs officially, but was in control positions for over 80% of that fight. Even when Usman couldn’t secure earlier in the fight, Tafa got held against the fence.
But it was when he was put on bottom, he didn’t have much of an answer and looked largely lost.
Usman was fine to just sit in half guard most of the fight although he could have passed without much issue – the one time he did, Tafa did re-guard, but Usman didn’t really push the issue in terms of keeping position and was fine to reconsolidate because Tafa wasn’t posing any real threat.
That fight was pretty alarming for Tafa because it doesn’t seem like he’s going to offer much from his back – he also gassed out relatively early from the clinch and wrestling of Usman.
De Lima only went 1/3 in the last outing but similar story in the sense that Tafa just didn’t offer much from the bottom when he was put there.
In his defense, he’s avoiding dominant positions but part of that is also due both Usman and De Lima being fine to relegate to half guard, which we’ve seen in other past fights from both guys.
Overall, he’s not an incapable TD defender but he’s going to give rounds up that he’s taken down in more often than not.
Unlike his brother Johnny, Walter’s bread is really buttered on the ground.
Given a guy his size, he’s not the quickest guy out there but he is a good wrestler at least by the lower tier standards of heavyweights.
He’s not particularly diverse in what he does but he excels with double legs in the open mat or against the fence. Many of his opponents just haven’t had an overt answer to where he’s able to secure his TDs at a high percentage, rack up minutes or positionally TKO guys.
He doesn’t seem to possess any real submission game but has been proactive in looking to pass the guard which I like. Opponents have been able to work up under him before though so it’s not as if he’s just pancaked everyone.
It is important to note that his strength of competition has been pretty horrendous so far.
He went 4/5 on TDs in the debut against Brzeski, racking up 7+ minutes of control. Despite accruing similar amounts of control time in both rounds 1 & 3, the judges gave Brzeski the 1st based on what he was able to do in the two minutes on the feet in the round ,which was the swing in what dropped Walker that fight.
Overall, Walker isn’t a world beater on the ground, but he does have the ability to wrestle and secure in volume should he choose, which is going to give him a leg up over many of the caliber of opponents he’ll be booked against.
How it plays out: This is the obvious upside to Walker in the matchup. Despite Tafa showing some semblance of TDD, he’s by and large looked fishy on the bottom. I know some people may reference the Brzeski fight in being able to work up at points against Walker, but Brzeski’s also worked up multiple times in many other fights and against better wrestlers than Walker as a guy that doesn’t really “accept” being on the bottom (despite his poor TDD). I reference that to say that if Walker is landing TDs in this fight against Tafa, I think Tafa is going to be easier to control than Brzeski which I guess may be a hot take this week.
This is your classical, shitty, lower level, relatively binary heavyweight fight. I don’t really rate either guy, but they do excel in the realms they do. Given the matchup, it’s high-variance. But one side narrative thing that’s interesting to me is that Walker is projecting to come in 18lbs lighter than what he’s fought at in the last couple years. From what it sounds like, he took his debut lightly, didn’t train properly and is now a bit more dialed in. That’s not the primary reason I’m taking Walker to win here but more to what I referenced above with the Brzeski comparison, that I think may not be factored in, coupled with Walker being more willing to advance than Williams or De Lima. Nonetheless, it’s heavyweight which always brings high variance to where if Tafa bonks it would be far from shocking. But I’ll go with the slight dog in Walker with all of the ground upside.
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On DraftKings, I sort of like this HW matchup better than the one on the main card, despite it not rating out as strongly.
Largely, it’s because the fight feels more binary to me. Tafa is reliant on striking where Walker seems weak, and has questionable cardio. Tafa is terrible on the ground, where Walker will likely want to attack him.
Where there’s still risk of a bust in an extended fight, and that’s just the case with any HW matchup, I do feel like there’s domination upside for the winner and we get nice mid-range prices on both sides.
It’s also hard to have a strong lean, but I don’t mind taking a chance on Walker at 8k. I actually was on Brzeski as a dog in Walker’s UFC debut, and I talked about fading Walker longterm. Thankfully, he lost that debut so we’re already in the green.
Brzeski can fight at a pretty decent pace though, and he can get up from takedowns. I’m not sure that Tafa can, and now we’re getting Walker at 8k instead of 9.4k.
He still nearly pulled off the win against Brzeski, despite struggling down the stretch, and due to wrestling he would have scored 86 points. Again, that sucks at 9.4k but it gives him some hope at 8k, and that was in a tight decision.
He’s now +285 to win ITD but I feel his finishing chances may be underrated. He’s not really the type to win convincing decisions, partially due to his cardio. So if Walker does win at all, I think it comes with early takedowns, control, GnP and potentially a finish.
At 8k, yes there’s risk but I think there’s considerable upside as well. I’m hoping he gets overlooked to a degree based on his UFC debut as well. It’s still important to remember that he’s not great, so taking a major stand here is a risk, but I think it’s a good matchup for Walker and I’d like to be overweight to him personally.
Tafa at 8.2k is fine as well, and he has more finishing upside on paper at +110 ITD. Most of his wins come by quick KO, and that feels like a very realistic outcome.
Additionally, he may have the advantages late in this fight and a late KO may be possible too. Unfortunately, a late KO may come with minimal scoring early, and that could still be a path to a bust. That’s partially what makes me nervous about Tafa because ultimately, he’ll likely need to stuff takedowns early to reach his top-end ceiling and I doubt he can do that.
But it’s HW. He’s fighting at home. He’s a better striker than Walker. He can win by KO. He may not be super popular either based on his last fight, but he’s worth targeting in a binary matchup. I’m less likely to be overweight to the field here but it’s not a bad strategy and I’d like considerable exposure to the matchup as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Walker by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos
Fight Odds: Culibao -146, Ramos +126
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Culibao 8.5k, Ramos 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a super random fight here between Josh Culibao and UFC veteran Ricardo Ramos.
Culibao is kind of just a scrapper. He is 10-3-1 professionally and generally seems like a tough dude who is probably reliant on winning striking fights.
Culibao is an okay striker who is technical with sneaky power. However, I just hate his volume and athleticism. He only lands 3.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 in return. He has fought okay competition though so I will defend him there, and he has competed with decent strikers like Charles Jourdain and SeungWoo Choi.
Still though, I just don’t like Culibao. He is fine and technical and can land some big shots occasionally. He just doesn’t put up a ton of volume though and he doesn’t land takedowns either, so I don’t love his round winning ability. He is a tough and experienced guy on the feet though and he did land 87 significant strikes in his most recent fight against Danny Silva. So that was a good sign.
Culibao does have a random RNC win against Melsik Baghdasaryan. However, Culibao hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC yet. He has attempted a bunch but has landed zero so he is clearly not a talented wrestler. It is hard to be too confident in his offensive wrestling at this level, but he is a BJJ black belt and at least competent on the mat.
If he happens to get the fight to the mat, sure he can maybe have success. It is just hard to trust him to consistently get the fight there. He defends takedowns at an okay 67 percent and can scramble up at times but he isn’t a great defensive wrestler.
Culibao will be taking on Ricardo Ramos. Last time we saw Ricardo Ramos fight, he was guillotined choked by Julian Erosa which was a bit of a bad look.
Ramos is a decent fighter and pretty well-rounded. He is an okay striker. He lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.74 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. He is okay on the feet and mixes in a variety of strikes. However, his numbers aren’t great and he has been knocked out a couple of times.
I am just a little concerned for him when he is striking. He has shown random spurts of power though and landed a tremendous spinning backfist knockout in his most recent win against Danny Chavez.
Ramos is a decent grappler too. He lands 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about five takedowns per fight. He has a decent takedown game and actually landed eight against Bill Algeo. He can take the back and lock in RNCs as well and I consider him a solid submission grappler.
However, it is really embarrassing that he is generally known as a grappler and he was submitted by guillotine in his last two fights. It just makes me not trust him as he is just a guy who seems to get finished in a variety of ways, and manages to drop the ball.
Ramos is just fine. He is a UFC capable fighter who is pretty well-rounded and has some finishing ability in all areas. I do think his random spurts of power and durability issues make his fights hard to predict. He can randomly get finished and he can finish people himself.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Ramos can land some takedowns here. So perhaps he can have some success. I also do think Ramos is a competent enough striker to compete with Culibao. Ramos is also probably the more athletic party. So I do think he has ways to stay competitive and perhaps win the fight.
However, I don’t totally trust Ramos to easily dominate with grappling or just easily finish Culibao on the mat. So I do think this fight could stay standing a bit where I may favor Culibao because of consistency and toughness.
I honestly may just pick Culibao in this matchup because he doesn’t just randomly get finished so often. Culibao has fought some dangerous guys in the UFC like Lerone Murphy, Melsik Baghdasaryan, SeungWoo Choi, and Jalin Turner and has only been finished once (by Turner). Ramos has been finished in four of his last five losses. Culibao is simply just tough enough to probably extend this fight which gives him time to test Ramos’ toughness.
This is still a competitive fight on paper from a skills perspective so I am not all that confident in Culibao, but I will pick him because he seems a little tougher and more reliable than Ramos.
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On DraftKings, I consider Culibao a pretty sneaky tournament target because although he rates out poorly, Ramos is a quitter.
Tim talked about it and I mentioned it prior to Ramos’ last fight, when he was a big favorite over Julian Erosa. Despite his grappling advantages, he was guillotined in round one for the second consecutive time.
It’s not just that – in other losses, he quits and gets KOd.
Culibao doesn’t produce enough offense to roster in any standard matchup. He barely strikes and he doesn’t wrestle. He will need an early finish. There’s no reason to predict it other than the fact that Ramos has meltdowns.
For reference, in Culibao’s UFC wins, he’s scored 58, 76 and 77. You’re betting on an anomaly here. However, he’s +175 to win ITD which isn’t that bad. And it could come early.
It’s still a major risk to take but my expectation is that Culibao is full-on contrarian on this range, and so that’s an additional benefit. I won’t get crazy with ownership here but it’s one spot to be unique and I don’t hate the idea of taking chances in large-field tournaments as a way to separate yourself.
Ramos at 7.7k is alright as well. My big fear is that the fight will be slower pace and both guys will bust.
Ramos can land takedowns though, and Culibao isn’t a great defensive wrestler. On paper, Ramos is better and has upside on the mat. He’s only +300 to win ITD though and I don’t particularly trust his cardio.
Although Ramos carries some upside, I think the more likely outcomes are that he lands 1-2 takedowns and 60 significant strikes in a close decision win. That likely wouldn’t be enough to stand out on the optimal.
So I don’t plan on investing too much in Ramos this week. He’s not a terrible option due to some grappling equity but I don’t fully trust his ceiling and Culibao has been relatively tough. Acceptable secondary target if you want him at a lower ownership though.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Culibao by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Casey O’Neil vs. Luana Santos
Fight Odds: Santos -136, O’Neil +119
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.6k, O’Neil 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off two straight losses to Jennifer Maia and Ariane Lipski, I am sure Casey O’Neill is itching to get back into the cage this weekend against the surging Luana Santos.
I actually don’t mind O’Neill. She fights at a super hard pace whether she is striking or grappling.
I think O’Neill is best as a grappler, especially when she is in top position. She lands 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t consider her takedowns all that good, but she is tenacious and can use her size and pace to eventually land takedowns. O’Neill is best in top position. She can absolutely brutalize opponents with ground and pound, pass their guard, and threaten to finish fights. She finished her first three UFC opponents on the mat.
O’Neil isn’t a bad striker. She landed 229 and 137 significant strikes against Modafferi and Maia so she has a TON of volume so she can remain competitive on the feet vs a lot of girls. The issue is that she isn’t the most technical striker, doesn’t have much defense, and she doesn’t have a ton of power behind her strikes. So her striking fights just get a little sloppy and I don’t fully trust her standing.
She got absolutely schooled and hurt often against Lipski because Lipski was a little too technical and fast for her.
Still though, O’Neill has a great pace and if she can find top position and get back to her grappling roots, she will continue to have success in this division. She defends takedowns at 66 percent and can be taken down, but she generally can scramble up. It was a bad look that she got submitted by Lipski in her last fight, but she was badly hurt before it happened so I will give her a bit of a pass.
O’Neil will be taking on Luana Santos. Santos is now 3-0 in the UFC and 8-1 professionally. She knocked out Julianna Miller in her UFC debut and then beat Stephanie Egger in a decision by moderately outstriking her, and obtaining some clinch control time. She then easily submitted Mariya Agapova in her most recent fight.
Santos is a bit of a freestyle fighter, but she comes from a Judo background and has a black belt in the art. Santos is a competent grappler, she can obtain takedowns and get some control time. She can definitely take advantage of weak grapplers. However, I still hate that her takedowns are a bit too upper body reliant. Like many judokas, she goes for many head and arm throws. I much prefer takedowns below the waist. I have always said that about Judo reliant fighters.
Santos can definitely beat weak grapplers, but I do think there will come a point where those Judo takedowns won’t work, and she will struggle.
Santos can strike a bit too. She knocked out Miller, and is a decent striker. She is nothing great and hasn’t ever beaten an actual good striker standing.
However, she can manage range somewhat and land boxing combinations. I still do not fully trust her standing at all though and do think good strikers could have their way with her. I also am skeptical of her defensive wrestling as I have seen her taken down and held down herself.
Also, I did not like the way Santos looked in round three against Stephanie Egger. She slowed down a bit and was taken down to end the round. It makes me think she may melt to a pace because the pace in that fight wasn’t even very high.
That is why I am going to go with O’Neil in this matchup. I know O’Neil will bring a pace here, and Santos has never faced anything like the pace of O’Neil. I just tend to think Santos will get uncomfortable with all of the aggression that O’Neil brings. I just trust O’Neil’s cardio so much more.
On the feet, I think Santos is a bit more dangerous early and hits harder. However, I honestly think the pace and output of O’Neil is more reliable than anything Santos does.
From a grappling perspective, I think Santos is probably a more powerful takedown artist early. I also think she is more likely to win by submission early in this fight. However, if this fight extends, I really think O’Neil can take over. I also think Santos going for head and arm throws could get her in trouble vs O’Neil.
Overall, Santos may be a little more technical as a fighter and more likely to win early in this fight. However, I really like O’Neil’s pace and I tend to think she is underrated going into this fight. So I am going to pick O’Neil to win.
—
On DraftKings, I am debating whether or not to pull the trigger on O’Neil once again, despite getting cleaned up on her recent losses.
From a fantasy standpoint though, O’Neil is either winning and scoring a ton of points, or giving up a ton of points. She has scored 122, 131, 110 and 140 in her wins, which is borderline historic for an average three-round fighter who doesn’t even wrestle that much.
In her losses, she gave up 145 sig. strikes to Maia and she got hurt and subbed early by Lipski. I don’t mind the idea of betting on the matchup as O’Neil’s pacing has provided the winner with a strong floor, and sometimes an elite ceiling.
O’Neil is the easier target of the two as well due to her ceiling. She’s only 7.6k and now +119 to win. I’m not at all convinced she wins, but this is a pretty nice combo of pacing/price/line value and I will probably gravitate toward her for those reasons.
She may get some public love, but coming off two ugly losses in a row, with a +400 ITD line, I don’t think she’ll be ultra-chalky.
At worst, I think you consider O’Neil a fine secondary target for value. At best, you could prioritize her given the dynamics of her style and the price.
Santos at 8.6k is now overpriced as a short -136 favorite, but I don’t mind her. There’s not a lot of safety in this range.
I don’t love the pacing of Santos as much, but I think she’s going to be forced to grapple to a degree in a win. That could easily come in the form of early takedowns, and maybe an early submission.
She has a better ITD line as well at +285. It’s still not phenomenal but shows some promise.
I don’t think Santos is a must as this is a step up in comp for her on short notice, and her game probably isn’t as great as her performances have suggested. She also could be popular given her box scores. But despite this, it’s hard to picture her winning without producing plenty of offense, much of which should come on the mat.
I think I will actually be in on her this week because of it, at least as a secondary target, and I like this matchup quite a bit as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: O’Neil by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns
Fight Odds: Jenkins -800, Burns +539
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Jenkins 9.6k, Burns 6.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After trading a win and loss to Jamall Emmers and Chepe Mariscal in his last two fights, I am excited to see Jack Jenkins take on Herbert Burns this weekend.
Jenkins is an Australian fighter who is 12-3 professionally. I was actually impressed taping him before his UFC debut months back. He booked his UFC contract by getting a third-round finish in his Contender Series bout. In that fight, Jenkins landed four takedowns and just beat the breaks off of his opponent. It was almost uncomfortably bloody.
Jenkins showed his offensive grappling in that fight. His takedowns look okay, and he has a decent understanding of BJJ on top with a decently heavy top game and good GNP. I liked that performance from him.
Jenkins then fought Don Shainis in his UFC debut. Jenkins got the better of the striking in that matchup and landed four takedowns for a clear decision win.
Although Jenkins looks to wrestle occasionally, I mostly consider him a striker. He comes from a boxing background, and you can see it in his game. He has good boxing technique and mixes in nasty calf kicks. He is pretty relentless with his pressure and volume. I think a good fighter comparison is Nathaniel Wood. Like Wood, you can see the boxing and calf kick combo in Jenkins’ striking.
Jenkins also looks to have very good cardio as well. I have seen this guy throw endless volume (e.g. against Costa) and not even slow down a little bit. I don’t think Jenkins has a ton of power, but he is an accumulation guy and can absolutely batter his opponents, especially when his calf kicks are mixed in.
There are some concerns I have with Jenkins though. I am a bit worried about his defensive grappling as he has lost two fights by submission. I couldn’t find those two fights that he lost. However, those fights were over five years ago. I have seen Jenkins’ defensive grappling in more recent fights since and it actually looked okay. I saw him held down here and there, but it wasn’t awful.
Still though, Shainis actually mounted Jenkins and obtained top position on a couple of occasions. Emmers also got a lot of top position on Jenkins. So I do have some concerns. He did at least defend 5/6 takedowns against Emmers, but his get ups didn’t look great. I think Jenkins will defend the wrestling against a lot of guys but above-average grapplers will likely have success against him.
My expectation is that Jenkins will generally look to strike in his fights with an occasional mixture of takedowns.
Jenkins will be taking on Herbert Burns who is the brother of Gilbert Burns. I honestly didn’t know Burns was still in the UFC and he has only fought three times in the last four years. He lost all three of those fights and was beaten to a pulp and finished in round two each time.
Burns is a submission grappler and early finisher. He comes out of the gate hot and looks to land random strikes like knees or blitzes for an early submission. He is dangerous for a bit. However, this guy is an absolute front runner and has no durability or cardio whatsoever. He crumbles to any adversity that comes his way.
In Burns’ early UFC career, he quickly finished Nate Landwehr and Evan Dunham which is hilarious to think about because Landwehr probably wins that fight 80 percent of the time. Burns then fought Daniel Pineda, Bill Algeo, and Julio Arce. He failed to finish all of them, faced adversity, and got beaten up badly.
Burns just has no cardio. He can’t fight as a striker or grappler for more than a few minutes and he is just made to quit. I know that sounds harsh, but it is objective analysis and I really think you can project Burns to either win a fight quickly or he is going to lose and probably lose badly.
I have to go with Jenkins in this spot. If this fight gets extended in any way, Jenkins is the far superior fighter in a prolonged fight as he is a WAY better striker and has exponentially better cardio than Burns. My guess is Burns will come out aggressively and either obtain an early finish, or just fail to obtain a finish and get dominated and finished himself.
My guess is that Jenkins survives the early storm. Jenkins is a bit suspect of a defensive grappler so I could see Burns having some early grappling success. However, I don’t think it will matter if Jenkins simply survives as Burns will likely eventually get melted if the fight gets extended in any way.
My guess is Jenkins survives the early storm, puts Burns through adversity and finishes him midway through this fight.
—
On DraftKings, I’m somewhat interested in Jenkins but he is expensive at 9.6k.
Really, it comes down to Burns and his inability to fight three rounds. He’s been TKOd in the second round on three consecutive occasions, and now has to fly to Australia to take on an opponent who has plenty of gas in the tank.
With that said, Burns does a pretty decent job of surviving past round one. He’s also only been knocked down by one opponent of those three TKO losses, so it’s not as if one punch will send him to the canvas.
And he’s also dangerous early, so oftentimes his opponents are fighting somewhat defensively in those early minutes.
That does concern me a bit, as a second round TKO could realistically put up a score of 90-100, whereas a first round TKO could be a smash result. He’s actually only +185 to win in round one. Still, Jenkins is -350 to win ITD overall, which is one of the best ITD lines on the slate.
Salary is also in consideration where Nolan is extremely likely to win ITD as well, and even if Jenkins does win ITD, he’ll likely need to clear everyone else in this top range.
Point being, Jenkins rates out very well. He’ll probably win by TKO. It’s not a guarantee to come in round one though and in relation to pricing, he won’t be a must target. If you have the salary to afford him, he’s absolutely in consideration and still does have outs to a smash score, like a first-round TKO or multiple KDs. Of course I’d like some exposure here.
I’m just not sure I’ll be able to pay up to 9.6k at an extremely high rate, and I might want Nolan some when I can afford this much. Jenkins has a great floor in a win and definite upside, but he’s probably more of a secondary target than someone I’ll aim to start most of my lineups with.
Burns at 6.6k has viability in the sense that a win for him will come from an early finish.
Burns is very strong on the ground and does have submission upside. Jenkins has been taken down in each of his last three matchups. It’s possible Burns could find a finish.
He’s a huge dog though and +575 to win ITD, which is pretty poor. He’ll be very low owned and leverage against Jenkins, but his chances of actually hitting are minimal.
With a smaller portfolio, it’s probably not a spot worth attacking, but with a larger portfolio, you can mix in a very small percentage of Burns. Ultimately, he’s a high-upside dart throw who probably won’t hit.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jenkins by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
Fight Odds: Nolan -1200, Reyes +727
Odds to Finish: -1600
DraftKings Salaries: Nolan 9.8k, Reyes 6.4k
Weight Class: 155
We have a fun action fight here between Tom Nolan and Alex Reyes, two fighters still trying to cement their place in the UFC.
Nolan is coming off his first promotional win, where he knocked out Victor Martinez late in the first round. It didn’t come without adversity though, as Nolan was dropped early in the fight.
Nolan is now 7-1 professionally at age 24, so we don’t have a polished prospect here, but I think Nolan has potential or at least can provide some fun moments.
He comes from the Australian regional promotion Eternal MMA, which I generally don’t think highly of but has produced a bunch of fine fighters, including Steven Erceg as a recent example.
Nolan has five wins by knockout and two by decision, but he has grappled aggressively in multiple fights, and I’m hopeful that his game isn’t as straightforward as him being a knockout artist. Mostly, he’s just an aggressive guy.
He’s sorta lanky and likes to push a pace wherever the fight takes place. As is the case with everyone out of this promotion, I just don’t love the level of competition and I sorta take his wins with a grain of salt.
But generally speaking, Nolan can wrestle aggressively and he’ll press forward on the feet. He’s a brown belt in BJJ and he always looks for head and arm chokes, though he’s never locked one up.
I don’t think he’s a good enough athlete to consistently take down opponents though, and he might have weak takedown defense himself. But he can scramble fine, and against a poor grappler, he can absolutely get on top or threaten with a sub in transition.
He knocked out his opponent brutally on DWCS in 2023 to earn his contract, in just a couple minutes, and I think it speaks to his firepower. He’s just the type of fighter who seems likely to hurt his opponent if he’s having success at all.
However, the flip side of this is that his aggression will lead him to getting hurt as well, which we’ve now seen in back-to-back UFC performances.
Nolan was a heavy favorite against Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut and got knocked out in a minute. Motta isn’t a very talented fighter though he does have some power, and getting bopped early was the main path in which Nolan could lose.
Now that we’ve seen him get dropped again in round one, by another weak opponent in Martinez, I have some pretty major concerns. He feels like the type who will continue to engage in firefights, but it’s hard to be sold that he’s always going to come out ahead.
I’ve also seen him taken down and put in bad spots on the mat, though he scrambles free. And his offensive aggression means that when he loses, his opponents are likely going to have to continue to put him out.
I respect his pace though generally and he seems like a tough out, and an interesting prospect for now.
Alex Reyes has only fought twice in the UFC and he’s been knocked out in round one both times, once by Mike Perry in 2017 and most recently by Charlie Campbell in 2023.
Reyes suffered some very unfortunate health circumstances after that Perry fight which led to the long layoff. He contracted E. coli from a stem cell injection that turned into a spinal infection, and it basically derailed his entire life. He had to be taken care of like an infant and was told he would never walk again.
I’m no doctor, but apparently this medical issue has been resolved, at least temporarily. It sounds like this type of infection never goes away, but obviously if he’s been medically cleared to fight in the UFC on Saturday, his condition is stable enough.
Reyes is now 13-4 professionally at age 37, and this feels much more like an attempted feel-good story where the guy regains his life back and makes the walk to the cage one last time, rather than a true Cinderella story where he returns as some legit prospect. He’ll probably be cut if he loses anyway.
Reyes is a BJJ black belt and that’s probably his best strength. He’s competent on the mat and has four wins by submission. He also has nine wins by knockout but I’m not super confident in his striking.
Campbell beat him up pretty good in his last fight, though Campbell is an interesting prospect as well and probably a better one than Nolan.
It’s just tough to know what to expect from Reyes at this age, in this form. The good news is that Nolan will likely give him an out, assuming Nolan once again comes in aggressive.
Realistically though, if Reyes doesn’t win by early KO, he probably isn’t going to win. Perhaps he can land a takedown and win by quick submission. Perhaps his gas tank is good but that’d be a massive leap of assumption, and I doubt he can keep pace with Nolan.
I certainly don’t have enough confidence in Nolan to view him as a -1000 or greater favorite in any typical situation, which includes this one. But Reyes has less than four minutes of cage time in the last seven years, and it seems likely that if Nolan can survive a couple of minutes, he’ll eventually put Reyes away.
—
On DraftKings, Nolan is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.8k, which is a massive price to pay and certainly puts some doubt in my mind as to whether he should be a priority.
On one hand, Nolan is very likely to win this fight ITD. The fight as a whole is -1600 to end ITD and Nolan himself has a -1000 ITD line. He’s also -185 to win in round one, which even in comparison to Jenkins, is elite.
To be perfectly honest, these numbers seem kind of crazy to me. I fully get that it’s based on Reyes, but Nolan has now been dropped quickly in both of his UFC fights against opponents who probably are not that much better than Reyes. I mean, Victor Martinez was knocked out cold in his UFC debut as well by a grappler with zero striking skills.
So I’m not fully comfortable with this betting line, or the ITD metrics of Nolan, though I do understand them.
Either way, Nolan will project incredibly well because of it and will be in real consideration when you have the ability to pay up. The issue really is whether you can pay up.
Nolan just scored 105 points in a first-round KO and that won’t be enough on this slate at this price. I’m not sure what the right point total would be, but 110 or less is probably not enough.
I’m really looking for an absolute smash, a QWB outcome where Nolan scores 125 and you’re forced to pay up for him, like we saw recently with Payton Tallbott. Perhaps he actually has first-minute equity and the QWB is in play, but he’s still very expensive.
And on this slate, there aren’t many great cheap fighters. It’s not just easy to pay all the way down to a -600 favorite in Chris Gutierrez like we had last week. So if you’re playing Nolan, you’re likely paying up for him and then targeting the mid-range or below.
Historically, this isn’t a spot that works out enough for me to recommend you attack it. Paying down into the lower 9k range allows you to spend up more on the bottom of your lineup for more realistic win equity. That’s probably the route to go.
I also think the field will see this, and be somewhat light on Nolan. He won’t be unowned, but I don’t expect him to be extremely chalky, despite the metrics.
With that said, if you have the salary, go for it. Nolan is very likely to score 100+ in a win based on these metrics and maybe a 110ish score would be enough. He could be viewed as the top overall target on the slate.
There’s nothing wrong with targeting Nolan if you’re comfortable with the rest of your lineup, but I wouldn’t consistently choose to force him in either.
Reyes at 6.4k can probably be faded just based on metrics. He’s +700 to win and +900 to win ITD. He’s old and has no cage time recently.
However… Nolan has been getting hurt early in fights and that seems somewhat predictive to me. I don’t think Reyes is the guy to do it, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
And if Reyes does win, he’ll likely win early ITD too, which could be enough to score optimally, at a super low ownership with tons of leverage against Nolan. I won’t recommend you play much of him, but I honestly don’t mind a tiny sprinkle in large fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nolan by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn
Fight Odds: Kenan -189, Glenn +162
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Kenan 8.7k, Glenn 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really ugly fight here between two fighters who I have never been high on in Song Kenan and Rick Glenn.
Song is essentially a striker, and I guess he is okay, but he’s not great. Song lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.38 in return. He defends strikes at 50 percent. He is okay on the feet and can go through the motions, but he is just not very talented. He has a bit of power and has three knockouts in the UFC but they were against Callan Potter, Hector Aldana, and Bobby Nash. This guy has not beaten anyone good, although he did hurt Ian Garry.
I just can’t trust a guy who consistently gets hit more than he hits people. If Song’s power does not show up, he is a liability to get behind on the strike count and lose rounds. I just can’t get behind that process.
Song is also not a great defensive grappler. He defends takedown at 61 percent and can be controlled a bit. He also has only landed two takedowns in the UFC, both on a nearly unconscious Ian Garry, so he doesn’t have any grappling upside.
Song will likely continue to be dependent on knockouts going forward. He can probably win striking based decisions if his power shows up as well but I don’t trust that outcome vs anyone above average.
Song will be taking on Ricky Glenn. Glenn has been in a rough patch lately and has lost three straight fights. He lost his last two by knockout against Christos Giagos and Drew Dober.
Glenn is kind of a freestyle fighter who generally tries to win fights with his cardio / volume striking. Glenn isn’t a great striker, but he is competent. He lands 3.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.10. He defends strikes at 51 percent.
I don’t think Glenn is a great striker and I don’t really expect him to dominate anyone on the feet unless they are pretty bad. However, he has good cardio, has decent volume, and tries very hard. Fighting out of the southpaw stance, he thrives with his straight punches and rear kick to the body. Glenn doesn’t have a lot of power and he only has one knockout in the UFC.
Glenn is a competent grappler. He doesn’t land much offensively and only lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is capable of riding out top position and pouring on ground-and-pound though.
Glenn does defend takedowns at a decent 68 percent. I think his TDD is adequate, but he can be taken down and you can get in on his hips. I think Glenn’s getups are decent. He tries to work up right away by using his feet to push off his opponent. He can be controlled a bit but he has above average gets ups imo.
I still do think Glenn looked awful in his most recent matchups vs Christos Giagos and Dre Dober. They both only lasted a couple of minutes so it is hard to critique him too much. However, they were both really bad looks. He just looked slow and got hurt which makes me a bit worried about his durability going forward.
As far as this matchup goes, I really don’t think much of either guy. I think Song is more likely to win by knockout or hurt Glenn with one shot than vice versa, and Glenn’s durability has just been so bad lately. So I do think I am going to pick Song for that reason.
However, I still really do not trust Song’s volume for 15 minutes. If Song’s power does not show up, I really do think Glenn could be the busier fighter and maybe land a takedown or two over 15 minutes. So Glenn is very much live to win as I like his process of winning rounds more.
However, Glenn just looks very fragile and I do not trust his chin for 15 minutes so I will pick Song to win because I do think his power showing up is pretty realistic.
—
On DraftKings, this may be the first time I’ve ever considered rostering Song Kenan, despite him having fought in the UFC for seven years.
He’s just a terrible fighter. Not in a way that makes him completely useless, but outside of some power shots, he has nothing worth investing in. With that said, Glenn is getting up there in age, he has zero athleticism, and now his durability is fading.
If Kenan wins at all, it seems realistic to believe a large chunk of that win equity comes via an early KO. And for that reason, he has to be considered at 8.7k in tournaments.
Kenan is -120 to win ITD which is very strong. If the fight extends at all, his ceiling will be limited and he’ll likely bust. He may not even win.
So you don’t have to be overwhelmingly high on the guy but he’s an obvious early KO candidate and at 8.7k, he’s worth mixing in for tournaments, or potentially being above the market.
Glenn at 7.5k is incredibly hard to trust, but I do think he can win an extended fight.
His best days are well behind him, but he’s had some insane cardio performances where he nearly ended the career of Gavin Tucker with a beatdown, and he nearly came back to finish Grant Dawson in 2021.
He can land a fair amount of volume and grapple a bit, so at least he has paths. He’s +425 to win ITD though and the expectations are low.
I don’t think people will play much Glenn which is one positive, and Kenan has been TKOd in two of his four UFC losses. I wouldn’t consider him better than a secondary target, but Glenn has some hope if he can survive early.
For the price and the ownership, I don’t mind mixing Glenn if your portfolio allows.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kenan by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar
Fight Odds: Nicoll -225, Aguilar +189
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Nicoll 9k, Aguilar 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
Another Australian prospect will make his UFC debut as Stewart Nicoll takes on Jesus Aguilar this weekend.
Nicoll is 8-0 professionally at age 29, and he’s earned four wins by KO and three by submission. He’s been fighting in a pretty weak Australian regional promotion, where he was the champion.
What I see from Nicoll is a very basic grappler, and likely someone who is dependent on takedowns and control. More specifically, Nicoll likes to shoot in on the hips, move to the back and finish from there. Most, if not all of his TKO wins are from ground-and-pound via back mount.
While that’s a good type of fighting process, I am not sold that he’s some sort of elite wrestler and will be easily able to get past UFC level competition. He doesn’t look like an elite athlete to me, and I worry that if he doesn’t get on top, he won’t really have any additional paths to victory.
So it’s worth noting that he just hasn’t been fighting great competition, and he hasn’t faced much adversity. I like some of what I see, but I am taking it with a grain of salt.
For example, the one time I saw him get reversed on a takedown shot, he didn’t look great off his back. He might be vulnerable there defensively too. I just don’t have a ton of faith in the depth of his game at this moment, but his offensive grappling and process is fine.
He will have a soft landing spot for his debut at home where he takes on Jesus Aguilar, a pretty weak opponent who is actually coming off back-to-back victories in the UFC.
Aguilar is 10-2 professionally at age 28, and he’s earned one win by KO and six by submission. That one KO actually came in the UFC and was a shocker, though it was against an opponent who is known for getting hurt.
Otherwise, Aguilar doesn’t offer much on the feet. He’s averaging 1.49 sig. strikes per minute in a 35-minute sample, which is horrific.
He doesn’t really offer much at distance, and will sometimes rush into the pocket to land winging hooks. He’s just not a fighter I expect to land volume or really win minutes on the feet at this level.
Aguilar’s ground game isn’t great either but that’s his speciality. Nearly all of his submission wins have come by guillotine which is a red flag, and I don’t actually view him as a dangerous finisher on the mat.
His wrestling isn’t spectacular either. He averages 1.90 takedowns per 15 minutes and is reasonably competent in shooting them, but he’s not a great athlete and will often end up on his back. He also defends takedowns at 40 percent which is bad, but he can survive on the bottom.
I’m still pissed that he beat Mendonca in his last fight, despite losing the takedown battle 4:1 and only landing 19 sig. strikes in the contest. But he survived dangerous positions when needed, and worked a little harder than Mendonca over the duration.
This is just a weird matchup because I can’t back Aguilar. He’s not particularly good at anything and his path to victory in any given matchup is a bit random. However, I’m not really sold on Nicoll as a prospect and if Nicoll literally is not on top of Aguilar, I’m not sure if he’s winning.
I could definitely see a scenario where Nicoll lands some takedowns, but can’t finish the fight, and Aguilar works his way back up or into top position. Both fighters can land ground-and-pound but if Nicoll gets tired, Aguilar could have advantages late.
Aguilar may also jump for guillotines when Nicoll shoots, and you just never know. Grigoriou tapped to a sub last week which wasn’t even locked in. When guys get tired, it’s tough.
I don’t think Nicoll has a horrible gas tank or anything, but he’s only gone to decision once and he just hasn’t faced great competition. Aguilar really isn’t the type to push a pace, so it’s not a major concern, but still.
Ultimately, I guess I’ll pick Nicoll. He will go out there and wrestle, and Aguilar probably will end up on his back. Nicoll can probably take the back too, though I’m uncertain if he can finish.
The issue is just what happens after round one and if Nicoll has to keep wrestling over and over, there’s certainly potential for failure. At home, with this kind of opponent in front of him, I’m optimistic he can get the job done.
—
On DraftKings, I really don’t want to pay 9k for Nicoll but he has one of the better grappling profiles on the slate.
If Nicoll wins, it very likely comes from several takedowns, lots of control, ground-and-pound and maybe a finish. He’s only +200 to win ITD but Aguilar has already been subbed in the UFC so it’s not impossible.
It’s still a bit boom or bust in that if Nicoll isn’t on top, he’s probably not producing much offense at all. And I have seen him in spots where he’s holding onto opponents and not landing strikes, so it’s not a guaranteed smash in an extended fight.
Nicoll’s floor in a win seems very strong due to the wrestling style though. As long as the UFC brass haven’t gotten in his ear and told him they’ll cut him if he shoots a takedown, he should be wrestling. I think I’m willing to play him because of it.
You don’t have to prioritize Nicoll at 9k, but he has paths to a good score given his grappling style, and that’s enough for me to consider mild-moderate exposure.
Aguilar at 7.2k will rate out and project terribly because he doesn’t produce any offense.
He only scored 60 points in his last decision win. I don’t think he’s going to score great in this matchup and he probably loses.
But if Nicoll fails, it probably means Aguilar either outgrapples him, or jumps on a submission. He shouldn’t be popular with a +350 ITD line, so it’s not a major risk to play a bit.
He’s only a low-end secondary option for me, but there’s always some risk of these newcomers being overvalued based on fighting terrible comp on the regional scene, so there’s at least a bit of narrative in Aguilar’s favor.
I will prioritize other high-upside targets but for the price, being near field on Aguilar is probably a solid call.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nicoll by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)