UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 (8/10/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
Fight Odds: Spivac -164, Tybura +141
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Spivac 8.3k, Tybura 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
There’s nothing the UFC loves more than to throw together a random HW main event, and that’s what we have here as Marcin Tybura takes on Serghei Spivac for the second time.
Tybura is a longtime veteran of the division and he’s been a fun fighter for me to track and bet, as I feel he’s often underrated by the markets.
He’s not a great athlete, nor is he particularly great at any one skill, but he’s well-rounded and can fight competitively with mostly everyone except the upper tier of the division.
Primarily, Tybura excels as a grappler, where he’s landed 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s a black belt in BJJ and in combination with his wrestling, Tybura can win plenty of fights with takedowns and control.
On the feet is where he’s had more troubles, but that’s mostly come in the form of knockout losses. He’s been knocked out four times in the UFC, most recently by Tom Aspinall in 2023. While I wouldn’t consider his durability the worst in the world, it’s not great, and I am always somewhat nervous for him in striking exchanges.
With that said, Tybura is still competent as a kickboxer. He lands 3.60 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.35. Purely at distance, he’s landing 4.3 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.5 per minute.
I don’t fully trust Tybura to win rounds on the feet, but as long as he stays conscious, he can produce enough volume to be competitive. He’s also gone the three-round distance many times, and has even gone the five-round distance once against Fabricio Werdum in 2017, where he was outstruck 155 to 127.
He’ll be taking on Serghei Spivac this weekend in a rematch, and quite honestly, I am surprised that Spivac is the favorite.
Spivac has a Judo base and also relies on his grappling. He’s landed 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and that’s where all of his success has come.
Against weak grapplers, Spivac has thrived, taking down Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai six times each, finishing both on the mat.
Spivac has an OK submission game but it’s not fantastic, and most of his success has come against opponents who suck on the mat.
Still, he’s proven that he can be aggressive with takedowns, which is an extremely useful tool in the HW division.
On the feet, Spivac isn’t great. He’s improved over time but he’s never been a volume or power threat. He has no knockdowns in 11 UFC fights and he’s been KOd in three of his four losses.
The only time he lost by decision came against Tybura in 2020 when the pair fought last.
That fight wasn’t particularly competitive, which is why I’m surprised that Spivac is the betting favorite in the rematch. Both fighters are primary grapplers, but it was very clear who the better grappler was the first time – Tybura.
Tybura landed two takedowns on eight attempts, and earned 8:22 of control in a 15-minute fight. Spivac did defend some takedowns, but when he was grounded, he could not get back up.
On the feet, Spivac outlanded Tybura 20 to 15 but there was nothing significant on either side.
Listen.. I understand not being excited by Tybura or confident in his game in 2024, but this really is not a great matchup for Spivac.
Spivac generally needs takedowns to win, which he didn’t really try for in the first fight and could not get. Tybura is arguably less dependent on takedowns though it’s still his primary path. He attempted them, secured a couple ones without too much difficulty and then just dominated on top.
I don’t particularly see why the dynamic would change here. I’m pretty confident that Tybura can land some takedowns if he attempts a handful, and I doubt Spivac can do much on his back.
Potentially Spivac could take Tybura down if he tried, but I’m less confident there and he doesn’t really have the tools to hold Tybura down for long. It would have to translate into a quick finish.
Alexandr Romanov is a powerhouse and got Tybura down a couple times, nearly finishing him with ground-and-pound early. So there is some hope. But Tybura wasn’t flattened and was still trying to get back up. Spivac doesn’t possess the same kind of explosion or physicality as Romanov.
Tybura also outlasted Romanov and came back to win.. Spivac rarely fights into round three and I’m less confident in his cardio.
At distance, it’s not even like Spivac is the better striker. He can probably compete there but he’s landing 3.7 strikes per minute at distance and absorbing 6.2. He just got shit kicked by Gane at distance and put up 11 sig. strikes while eating 109 in eight minutes..
Yes, Tybura has durability issues but Spivac has been KOd three times in the UFC as well.
Perhaps it’s just an age thing, as Spivac is 29, while Tybura is 38. Again, I get it. Youth is important, and Tybura is kind of slow.
But looking at fighter profiles, I consider Tybura the better wrestler and grappler. Numbers suggest he can strike better at distance than Spivac too. Durability is probably similar. Cardio I’d lean toward Tybura.
It’s not enough for me to consider Tybura a -500 favorite or anything, and there’s plenty of variance in the HW division. Spivac could easily have moments or potentially hurt Tybura early.
I still have to lean with what I see and what the numbers tell me, which is that Tybura is the better wrestler and is more likely to win rounds on control.
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On DraftKings, this is going to be an important fight on a very short slate, and with mid-range prices, the winner seems very likely to compete for the optimal lineup.
Tybura will be my preferred target at 7.9k. He will likely land several takedowns in a win, with many minutes of control. He can land strikes on the feet and on the ground too. I’m not sure it will result in a 110 point score, but he did put up 87 in three rounds the last time these two fought.
He’s now +245 to win ITD which is still pretty good and I’m not certain that Spivac really has the cardio to go a hard five rounds. If Tybura ends up on top of him late, he could pound him out or sub him. Even by decision though, I’d feel confident Tybura exceeds value.
All in all, I will probably be pretty high on Tybura on this slate. You don’t have to aggressively lean in his direction but I might, considering the public seems to want to go the other direction.
Spivac is priced at 8.3k and is also a very strong target. While I don’t love the matchup for him on paper, he produces offense via takedowns, and that’s still going to be a method for him to score in this matchup.
That, or perhaps he wins via damage. He’s +125 to win ITD which is really strong and obviously I’ve noted the durability issues with Tybura above.
While I will lean toward Tybura myself, the lineups which I create that don’t have Tybura will probably have Spivac. I think a finish is realistic for him in a win but even by decision, he is likely to exceed value in a win. Plus, it makes sense to split the matchup to some degree.
If you would rather target Spivac than Tybura straight up due to youth or betting odds, that’s fine. Anything can happen at HW and I’m open to being wrong. Coming in split on both sides is a fine strategy too, simply hoping the winner puts up a strong score and hoping we can find an edge elsewhere.
I’m also guessing both sides end up pretty heavily owned, and not playing the main event in a lineup would be one interesting way to be unique. It’s not a path I will attack though.
Ultimately, despite the questionable talents up top, this will be a pivotal fight for DK purposes and that should still bring us some entertainment. I’ll have a heavier investment in the old vet, but I’d like exposure to both.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tybura by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal
Fight Odds: Mariscal -240, Jackson +200
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Mariscal 9.1k, Jackson 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what should be a fun competitive scrap here between blue collar fighters Chepe Mariscal and Damon Jackson.
Mariscal is 16-6 professionally, but all of his losses have come to good competition including Gregor Gillespie, Bryce Mitchell, Joanderson Brito, and Steve Garcia. So he is not losing to bums or anything. He actually has a win over Youssef Zalal and Pat Sabatini as well. So he is tested and has a lot of experience. He also recently beat Jack Jenkins and Morgan Charriere so he is a quality fighter.
Mariscal is kind of a freestyle fighter. I don’t consider him very good at anything, but he is well-rounded and is competent everywhere. He generally likes to strike, and I consider him a competent striker. He has some knockout wins on his record, but he has been knocked out before, and I have seen him hurt early. He lands 4.70 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.68 in return.
Mariscal is also competent on the mat. He has three wins by submission, and when he is on top he actually knows BJJ and can pass, go to mount, etc. I also consider him an okay defensive grappler, and when he is on his back he can defend himself. He lands 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 66 percent. Mariscal can also fight for 15 minutes without issue.
I just consider Mariscal okay. He will never be a champion, but he is well-rounded and can fight for 15 minutes. Since he is well-rounded, he can also expose fighters with holes in their game like he did to Trevor Peek in his UFC debut. I just expect Mariscal to compete at this level.
Hernandez will be taking on Damon Jackson. Jackson is alright, but I think he is limited athletically and not skilled enough as a striker to go too far in this division. However, he is a tough guy, pretty well-rounded, and a savvy grappler which should keep him employed in the UFC for a while.
Jackson thrives mostly with his grappling. He lands 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts nearly seven takedowns per fight. I like that tenacity. He LOVES the body lock / angle change takedown, he almost goes to it exclusively.
Jackson is capable of getting top position and threatening with back takes / submissions. He will continue to feast off below-average grapplers in this division.
I do worry a bit about Jackson’s physicality. Even against Dan Argueta, he was getting reversed and tired at times. There will definitely be points where his wrestling gets shut down as was the case in his knockout loss vs Dan Ige. He can be taken down himself as well. Mirsad Bektic landed seven takedowns on him and Jackson only defends takedowns at 40 percent.
Jackson isn’t the most technical striker. He does at least have some sneaky power and he did knock out Pat Sabatini. However, he only lands 3.00 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.29 in return. His significant strike high in a decision is 67, which isn’t great.
I also just want to say that Jackson looked awful in his matchups vs Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo. I picked Ige against Jackson, but Jackson really underperformed my expectations. He looked petrified to even engage on the feet and only attempted one takedown. It was concerning. He looked a bit better in a grinding decision win against Alexander Hernandez, but I wasn’t all that impressed either.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think both guys are well-rounded enough to where the fight could be competitive in all areas. So it is hard to be super confident as I am not sure either guy is WAY better in any area.
I think Jackson is probably the more technical and processed grappler. He’s also a lot bigger than Mariscal, with a four inch height advantage and a couple extra inches in reach. I do think he can land some takedowns, control and stall out Mariscal at times. So he could win this fight.
However, I still think Mariscal is a good enough defensive wrestler and grappler to survive and get the fight back to the feet for stretches. On the feet, I do think Mariscal is probably a bit better with a little more volume and speed. So I am going to pick Mariscal as I like his striking a little more. Mariscal could also probably land takedowns himself.
Jackson is still a tough competitor though, and Mariscal is not particularly great in any area so rounds could be tight and I could see Jackson having mild grappling success. However, I do think Mariscal is competent enough to defend himself and is a bit better as a striker. So I will pick Mariscal to win.
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On DraftKings, I’m somewhat interested in this fight due to pacing, grappling, and the potential for a KO.
I’m also far from certain that either side will dominate, which makes the fight tricky to analyze.
Jackson has always been an easy fantasy target because he’s generally grappling dependent. He needs takedowns, back control and a submission. His wins in the UFC have scored 82, 101, 80, 107, and 113 (ignore the 58-pointer).
In this fight, I highly doubt Jackson is going to have a lot of success at distance. He’ll continue to need takedowns and control. Mariscal is good enough to probably defend and beat him on the feet, but not certainly, and I do think Jackson will have moments, especially due to his size.
At 7.1k, I’m open to playing some Jackson. Any underdog with a pulse interests me this week as a potential leverage play against Gutierrez, and Jackson is viable in that regard. He’s only +325 to win ITD but he has a path to win on the mat and shouldn’t be excessively owned.
I won’t consider Jackson a great target, but he’s fine as a secondary option and pivot away from Gutierrez in large fields, and I’ll have mild exposure.
Mariscal at 9.1k is OK, but I don’t consider him a guarantee.
He’s scored well in UFC wins but his UFC debut was against Trevor Peek who’s a literal punching bag, and Marsical wasn’t even favored there. His win over Jenkins came from an injury stoppage. And then he scored 85 against Mariscal.
The upside for Mariscal is that Jackson has been KOd a few times in his career and I could foresee another KD/KO. Even Alexander Hernandez dropped Jackson in his last fight, despite Jackson winning. Mariscal is +160 to win ITD and that ITD would very likely come from an early KO.
Otherwise, maybe he can land some takedowns but I doubt he does much with them. Jackson is a good grappler and will threaten Mariscal in transition.
It gives Mariscal some upside hope but there’s also a reasonable chance Jackson can land a takedown or two, limit striking exchanges, and therefore limit the ceiling of Mariscal in a win.
At 9.1k, I’m willing to play some Mariscal but it’s mostly for the KO equity and he still falls into a boom or bust category because of it. He’ll rate out OK though and is ultimately a fine secondary spend up, though I think I prefer others in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mariscal by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Fight Odds: Barlow -385, Veretennikov +301
Odds to Finish: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Barlow 9.3k, Veretennikov 6.9k
Weight Class: 170
One of several short-notice matchups, I’m excited to see Danny Barlow return to the Octagon after an impressive debut performance, and he’ll take on a tough newcomer in Nikolay Veretennikov.
Barlow made his UFC debut in February against Josh Quinlan, cleanly outstriking Quinlan at range for a couple rounds before knocking him down and finishing the fight in the third round.
It was the performance I was hoping for, as Barlow is very clean at distance with straight shots and a threatening kicking game, and he faced little to no adversity from Quinlan who failed to close the distance.
Barlow is now 8-0 professionally with five wins by knockout and two by decision, and he previously earned his contract on DWCS in 2023 with a one-minute KO.
Barlow is tall and long for this division, standing 6’2” with a 79-inch reach, fighting out of the Southpaw stance. He’s simply a decent kickboxer, who works better in a mid or outside game rather than in the pocket. I especially like his kicking, where he can attack multiple levels.
Barlow hasn’t always been a high-volume fighter but he was able to land 95 sig. strikes in 11 minutes in his UFC debut, which is a strong pace. If he’s able to keep distance, I think he can compete with much of the division and he’ll have a shot at damage as well.
Grappling is where Barlow is theoretically weaker, which could play a role in this particular matchup.
Most of his fights have played out on the feet though, so there isn’t a major sample to work with. He has defended takedowns well at times, and I thought he stuffed the one nice shot that Quinlan attempted in that debut.
He was taken down on the regional scene though, and he gave up his back in that exchange, ultimately fighting out of the RNC where other fighters may have tapped.
I think it’s likely that Barlow may lose to a grappler moving forward, but he may not be horrid there. I’m hopeful just based on the way in which he sprawled to defend against Quinlan, though Quinlan isn’t very effective. At this current time I will consider Barlow’s takedown defense “fine”, but it’s largely untested.
Veretennikov will be making his UFC debut at age 34, with a pro record of 12-4 that includes nine wins by KO and two by decision.
He also fought on DWCS in 2021, but lost a decision to Michael Morales who is a legit UFC prospect.
In that bout, Veretennikov outlanded Morales at distance 41 to 35 but was taken down four times and lost the second and third rounds.
I don’t mind Veretennikov. He has a combat sambo background and he seems to be a good athlete. He’s pretty experienced and somewhat well-rounded.
I also don’t know if he’s legitimately great at anything. He seems like a mediocre kickboxer who’s thrived on damage, which is fine. Commentary noted how a lot of his TKO success had come in the clinch and with knees.
I’ve also seen him land some shots at distance that didn’t look too powerful but the opponent just went down.
Outside of the power angle, I don’t view Veretennikov as a major threat. He doesn’t work at a super high pace and I don’t think he carries the volume to cleanly win rounds. He might be defensively fine, and his only TKO loss came in 2014.
As a grappler, Veretennikov can both land takedowns and be taken down. On DWCS, he gave up some takedowns but Morales performed well there and I don’t think it’s an indicator that his wrestling is bad.
In other regional spots, I haven’t loved that he’ll attack a guillotine choke to defend. He will try some trips or throws from the clinch but they’re a bit lazy and I worry that he will get grounded more easily at the UFC level.
I’ve also seen him shoot standard double legs and have success, but it doesn’t look extremely high level. It’s at least a path to victory for him but I’d bet on him not having a ton of success against UFC level competition.
Mostly, this is a guy who is relatively well-rounded, relatively experienced, and trains out of a good camp with Beniel Dariush and Giga Chikadze at Kings MMA. He’s also taking this fight on two-week’s notice, at age 34, and I’m doubtful that he can be impactful enough anywhere to win consistently.
As far as the matchup itself, I just trust Barlow a little bit more at distance. I love his fluidity and his pacing is strong. While Veretennikov could compete, he’ll be at a five-inch reach disadvantage and probably falls behind at distance, where he’ll need to find some power shots to turn the tide.
You could actually argue that the ground game is where Veretennikov may have the advantage, but it’s hard to project. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him attempt a few takedowns, and maybe he can land 1-2. There’s even some chance that Barlow looks poor off his back and loses due to grappling alone.
However, that’s not the outcome I’ll predict. I am hopeful enough in Barlow’s defensive grappling that I think he can stuff some shots, or scramble up once if necessary. I still favor him to be more effective and more consistent on the outside and my guess is that’s enough to get the job done.
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On DraftKings, Barlow is the second most expensive fighter at 9.3k, and I think he’ll be a standard boom or bust option who’s dependent on the KO.
He did secure the KO in his last fight, which resulted in a 94-point win, but if that fight had gone the distance, Barlow likely would have scored in the high 70s.
He is now -140 to win ITD here, which is a very strong number and certainly suggestive that he can win by KO. But it’s against an opponent who doesn’t have a large history of getting hurt, and doesn’t fight at a super high pace. The combination of those things lead me toward picking an extended fight, though I do really like Barlow’s skills at distance.
It’s just going to be tough to prioritize Barlow, for me at least. If you want to bet solely on the ITD number and back on the early KO, you can take a stand on Barlow. Again, I want to reiterate that I like this guy’s skills as a striker and really wouldn’t be surprised if he did pull off the finish.
But there are other grapplers in this range who have safer floors and probably higher ceilings, and I’ll likely lean toward them though I will spread out to some degree. Overall Barlow is a decent option, but he probably needs an early KO to be optimal.
Veretennikov is priced at 6.9k and has some viability though I’m not super excited by him.
It’s just a tough matchup and I haven’t loved Veretennikov’s pace. But he has some power components and potentially a grappling edge.
He shouldn’t be highly owned and he should also be leverage against both Barlow and Gutierrez, which is a positive. For large fields, some exposure to Veretennikov makes sense.
But it would still be low-end secondary exposure for me and nothing more. He’s +825 to win ITD and I’m not sold on the grappling. The dynamics of the slate make him viable but matchup wise, I’m not aiming to invest a ton.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barlow by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le
Fight Odds: Gutierrez -535, Le +394
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Gutierrez 7k, Le 6.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Originally booked to fight Javid Basharat, Chris Gutierrez will now be fighting UFC debutant Quang Le who will be taking this fight five days’ notice.
Gutierrez is basically a striker. He lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.79 in return. He defends strikes at 63 percent. He is a competent striker and can continue to win fights at this level with it.
Gutierrez is a leg / calf kick specialist. He has absolutely battered several fighters with his leg kicks throughout his UFC career. If fighters don’t know how to check or deal with leg kicks, Gutierrez has the chance to completely dominate. He outlanded Vince Morales 60-8 in significant strikes and absolutely butchered his legs throughout the fight. The fight actually ended via leg kick stoppage.
Gutierrez doesn’t wrestle much offensively. He only lands 0.28 takedowns per minute. He is basically limited to winning fights via striking based decision or standing knockout. He has two knockout wins in the UFC and has mild to moderate power.
Gutierrez defends takedowns at 69 percent and is okay as a defensive grappler. We have seen him get taken down and controlled though, and I don’t totally love his get ups. He had no answer to the grappling of Song Yadong in his last fight.
Gutierrez will be taking on Quang Le who will be making his UFC debut on short notice. Le is 8-0 professionally and fights out of Vietnam. He does have four losses in his amateur career though, with his most recent loss coming in 2020. Seven of Le’s eight professional fights have come in LFA which is a solid regional promotion that is a good feeder to the UFC. However, none of his competition in LFA looked all that great.
I mostly consider Le a power striker who looks to land takedowns here and there. He looks fairly technical with some decent speed and power. He can throw some good straight punches, hooks, and kicks. He has won by KO in his last two fights. I still don’t know how good of a striker he is though. He hasn’t been tested defensively at all. All of his striking success is coming vs bad competition too. My guess is that he is okay on the feet but nothing great.
I have seen Le held down and taken down a lot. I do not trust his defensive wrestling at all. He does have a lot of submission wins. However, his offensive wrestling does not look all that special to me, and I am leaning against him having much wrestling and takedown success at this level. I feel like he is just submitting terrible competition.
Le kind of just looks like a guy who will maybe win some striking fights in the UFC, mostly based on power. I am not particularly high on him as a prospect from what I have seen and he is already 32 years old, so I doubt he will turn into anything all that good. He is unproven so perhaps he is better than I am giving him credit for. However, I want him to prove to me that he is good before I assume it. I am also not sure if his cardio is great in a 15 minute fight.
As far as this matchup goes, Le is pretty unproven so it is hard to know exactly how this will go. However, Gutierrez is just so experienced and proven at the UFC level. So it is going to be very difficult for me to pick Le, a very unproven fighter, to beat Gutierrez on five days’ notice.
I generally expect these guys to strike. Gutierrez doesn’t wrestle much and I don’t really trust Le to be able to land takedowns on Gutierrez. Le may try to wrestle here and there, but I am leaning against him having success.
On the feet, I simply lean Gutierrez because of his experience. He is such a consistent striker with his leg kicks and is proven at this level, and can fight the duration with no issue. Le is somewhat powerful standing so perhaps that power can lead to success for him. However, Gutierrez is very durable and I doubt Le just knocks Gutierrez out.
So I will go with Gutierrez. He will probably get a striking fight where he is comfortable and proven. I just can’t pick Le here until I see him have success in the UFC. If anyone just dominates someone on the feet, I think it will be Gutierrez.
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On DraftKings, we have a slate-breaking dynamic with Gutierrez priced at 7k from his original matchup against Basharat.
Now lined north of -500 to win, Gutierrez is the biggest favorite on this slate and should probably be priced around 9.5k. Clearly, he’s a screaming value, and he’ll be the most popular fighter on this slate by far.
There are only 10 fights this week too, so ownership is already going to get condensed. We’ll see lots of heavy ownership on singular fighters, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Gutierrez push 60-70%.
One manner of thinking is that Gutierrez is an essential lock this week. You’re getting insane win equity for a super cheap price tag. Nobody is more likely to be optimal on this slate than Gutierrez. You are free to jam him in if you want.
Another manner of thinking is that Gutierrez isn’t really the best fantasy asset in general. He does not push a pace, and he does not grapple. He’s had guys badly hurt in front of him before, and continued a steady, slow-paced outside striking game that limited his ceiling.
Now facing Le, who isn’t particularly fast-paced either, I absolutely think it’s in the range of outcomes for Gutierrez to win comfortably, land 80-100 strikes, and score 70 DK points. It may even be the most likely outcome.
In Gutierrez’ last three decision wins, he’s scored 75, 75, and you guessed it, 75. Prior to that, he scored 65 and 58 in decisions. He isn’t a great fantasy asset.
This is obviously a superior matchup than most of his fights though, and he’s still only +150 to win ITD. It’s still not phenomenal in general but it’s especially poor considering his odds to win. Still, with the leg kicking advantage and plenty of unknowns with Le coming in on short notice, there’s definitely a world where Gutierrez hurts Le early and finishes him off.
Regardless, you’re going to want exposure to Gutierrez. You’ll have to be unique somewhere else, but the most likely outcome on this slate is that Gutierrez wins, puts up a fine score, and still finds himself optimal due to pricing.
If you want to get cute, there are ways to pivot. You’re essentially just hoping for Gutierrez to win by decision, fail to top 80, and then hit on multiple other dogs who also win and score higher. I actually think that’s a solid strategy in large fields.
Granted, in cash games, you’re playing Gutierrez. In large fields, you can also consider playing him a high percentage, being super unique elsewhere, or simply leaving tons of salary on the table. That’s another solid option as a route to be unique, on a card where leaving salary may not be a huge issue in terms of sacrificing total upside.
You can also consider pivoting to Le for the leverage. We’re getting a winner priced at 7k or below, and if it’s Le, he probably scores well enough to be optimal. I think it would have to come from damage or takedowns, and he should be extremely low owned.
It’s just not a great spot for Le, nor is he a great talent. He’s only +915 to win ITD. Honestly, I don’t love that path as much and would rather pivot away from the fight entirely or choose to leave lots of salary on the table.
Still, you could argue that a small amount of exposure to Le due to leverage alone is a worthwhile large-field strategy.
Overall, I’ll likely end up with heavy exposure to Gutierrez by default, but so will the field. He is far from a lock to smash through the 100 point mark though, so there is still room to differentiate yourself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gutierrez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler
Fight Odds: Santos -144, Chandler +125
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.4k, Chandler 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an ugly fight here in the bantamweight division between Yana Santos and Chelsea Chandler.
Yana Santos (formerly Yana Kunitskaya) specializes in the clinch. She will use her physicality and strength, push her opponents up against the fence, and look to land point scoring shots up against the cage.
If you actually look at Yana’s metrics, they look good. She lands 4.16 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 3.03. However, the reason she has a good ratio is because she is generally limiting her opponent’s offense by clinching them up. When she is at range, I don’t trust her nearly as much and she only defends strikes at 50 percent. So when her opponents are not clinched up and have room, they can certainly land on her. You saw that in her matchups against Aldana and Rosa.
I also don’t totally love Yana’s takedown game. She lands 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. They all generally came in one fight (5 takedowns against Lina Lansberg) and that was the only fight where she landed more than 1 takedown in a fight. She just doesn’t seem to care to land takedowns. She only attempts about 2 takedowns per fight. She just will hold her opponents in the clinch and not really level change or even attempt a body lock takedown.
Yana’s defensive wrestling is not that strong. She only defends takedowns at 45 percent and can get stuck on her back.
Yana will be taking on Chelsea Chandler. Chandler is now 2-1 in the UFC, defeating Julija Stoliarenko and Josiane Nunes, but she lost dominantly to Norma Dumont.
I think Chandler is best as a grappler who relies on pace and tenacity. She basically crashes the clinch and looks for takedowns to get top position and break her opponents with ground-and-pound or a submission.
I don’t actually consider Chandler’s takedowns good. She lands 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes which is fine but they have come against bad competition. Her top game is alright and somewhat heavy, but her entire grappling system is based on pace which eventually won’t work against girls who actually possess defensive grappling skill.
I also don’t trust her defensive grappling. She is defending takedowns at 33 percent and was controlled by Norma Dumont for 8:58. Her defensive wrestling looked bad in that fight.
On the feet, Chandler doesn’t look all that good and she just comes forward to give her opponents no space and look to clinch. She is at least aggressive though and her opponents generally get frustrated with her pressure. She does have some okay hands at times. However, she is only landing 3.45 significant strikes per minute and most of her strikes have been coming on the ground. Her distance striking numbers have not been great.
I don’t know about Chandler. I don’t think Chandler is actually good at fighting. I think the best part of her game is her aggression at times, and her top game if she happens to get it there. However, I don’t always trust her ability to get the fight to the mat. She is moreso a girl who will be reliable to beat weak competition more than anything.
As far as this matchup goes, I really just don’t trust either of these girls anywhere. So I could easily see either of these girls losing in many ways.
On the feet, I think Chandler has the better hands and is probably more likely to hurt or damage Yana than vice versa. However, I do think Yana is a bit busier with her kicks. So in kicking range, I think Yana might be a bit better while Chandler is maybe a bit better on the inside. That just makes a recipe for competitive exchanges.
I actually do favor Yana in the clinch a bit positionally. She seems a little more physical there and is very comfortable in the clinch. I honestly may just pick Yana to win because she is probably a little better positionally in the clinch, which shows how unconfident I am picking this fight.
I don’t trust either of these girls’ takedowns. However, both girls have bad enough TDD where I could see either girl landing in top position. Both girls’ get ups are bad as well so I could see either girl getting top position. I honestly think the winner of the fight will be whoever gets more top position, which is hard to predict as neither girl has good takedowns, takedown defense, or get up games.
I don’t know man. This is a mess. Both girls can probably have a little success on the feet and both could probably have a little grappling success. I will go with Yana though as I think she is probably a bit better in the clinch and may land meaningless volume with her kicks throughout the fight.
—
On DraftKings, this fight may be so ugly that I’m actually considering targeting it.
Tim explained the dynamic well in that there’s a good chance both girls want to aggressively clinch each other. While this alone isn’t useful, both can attempt takedowns from that position and there’s a good chance that neither can defend.
The winner feels like to accrue multiple takedowns, lots of control time and some strikes along the way.
It’s still not an elite fantasy matchup and is only +250 to go the distance, but ownerships will probably be light because of it.
Santos is priced at 8.4k and I think she’ll be lower owned of the two. Her game sucks, but she’s flashed upside of 119, 109 and 92 in decisions in the UFC. She’s lost a lot of fights recently but there’s really no comparison from those opponents to Chandler.
It’s still tough to recommend lots of exposure here. Santos is +800 to win ITD. But based on the defensive flaws of Chandler, I don’t hate this spot. I think it’s an intriguing contrarian target on a slate with few opportunities to be unique, and I honestly wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field.
Chandler at 7.8k is going to rate out better at +300 to win ITD, and her style is more aggressive than Santos’.
When Chandler gets on top, she can score a lot of points, and we saw that in a 111 point score in her debut.
The problem is just that she isn’t good at fighting. Trusting her takedowns isn’t wise and it’s why she’s still a dog to Santos. She doesn’t really have a range game and her defense sucks.
Still, aggression is helpful, and Santos will allow her to clinch. Santos doesn’t defend takedowns well either so if Chandler wins, it probably comes with a bunch of grappling success.
I am willing to target Chandler because of it. But I do not think she’s a stand out in this range and am definitely not sure she even wins. So I mostly consider her a solid secondary target with some upside given her style.
And although I wouldn’t hate the idea of being overweight on the fight as a whole, assuming Chandler is more popular than Santos, I will probably just end up near the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou
Fight Odds: Grigoriou -247, Kazama +206
Odds to Finish: -225
DraftKings Salaries: Grigoriou 8.8k, Kazama 7.4k
Weight Class: 135
It’s been nothing but disappointment for both Toshiomi Kazama and Charalampos Grigoriou inside the Octagon, but one will get the chance to have their hand raised on Saturday.
Kazama holds a 10-4 professional record and is mostly a grappler. He’s earned two wins by KO and three by submission, but both KOs came in the form of ground-and-pound.
Since entering the UFC, Kazama was blasted in 33 seconds by the talented Rinya Nakamura, and was then knocked out in the first round by Garrett Armfield last August.
Prior to his UFC debut, he had one fight in the Road to UFC tournament and it was all grappling. Kazama landed a couple of takedowns, and spent a good amount of time on his back as well. In the interim, Kazama would force clinch exchanges rather than trade at distance.
I believe he is a purple belt in jiu-jitsu, and that’s going to be his strength. His BJJ looks decent, and even on the bottom he was threatening, with a nice bottom half guard game that allowed him to reverse position or escape.
His wrestling also didn’t look too bad. He could scramble well.
Considering what we’ve seen from Kazama on the feet since entering the UFC, it’s hard to project him for any real success there moving forward.
I don’t want to completely undersell him as he’s faced good competition, and there’s plenty of variance in striking exchanges. But he was hurt badly in both fights, dropped in both fights and just doesn’t likely have the skill set necessary to win consistently on the feet.
Charalampos Grigoriou was a prospect I thought of a bit more highly entering the UFC, but was super disappointing in his debut loss to Chad Anheliger, a weak opponent who is borderline UFC quality.
Grigoriou is now 8-4 professionally, fighting out a strong camp at Serra-Longo, and he’s earned six wins by TKO and two by decision.
Grigoriou is a karate black belt and national champion, and his kicking game is pretty decent. I don’t care much about the flash, but he’ll throw low leg kicks which is one of the most important striking techniques these days. You can dramatically change a fight with those, which he has on the regional scene, winning via TKO (leg kicks) on two separate occasions.
Funny enough, it was actually Anheliger who got off on leg kicks in that debut fight, which had Grigoriou badly hurt even in round one. That honestly could have played a major factor in the loss as Grigoriou could barely walk down the stretch, but given his past success with that technique, it was disappointing to see him get outstruck to the legs 18 to 3.
Grigoriou previously won by KO in one minute to earn his contract on the Contender Series last August, but I wouldn’t label him a pure power striker. He’s quick, and has some explosion, but I don’t necessarily foresee him earning KOs against good competition.
As a grappler, Grigoriou is adequate, but not spectacular. He’s a purple belt in jiu-jitsu and I’ve liked some of his transitions on the mat. He definitely knows what he’s doing, but he’s never won by submission in his career, so it’s hard to argue he’s dominant in that area.
He can wrestle well enough too. I’ve seen him land some takedowns, but not against great competition. I’ve seen him taken down a couple times too regionally, though he will sprawl well other times.
Against Anheliger, Grigoriou landed four takedowns on five attempts, but got nothing done and much of it was control against the cage. It was another disappointing effort against an opponent who is historically not too difficult to outgrapple.
Additionally, I am worried about another weakness in Grigoriou’s game which is cardio. He’s actually won a five-rounder before, but that came against a weak opponent who he had battered with leg kicks. He got tired and was TKOd by Christian Rodriguez in round three on the regionals. I’ve also seen him look tired at the end of decisions.
Against Anheliger, he only landed four and eight strikes in rounds two and three, and got outlanded 51 to 8 in the third round. Some of it was definitely the damage, but it seems likely that cardio isn’t a strong suit of his overall.
I just don’t feel great about Grigoriou as a prospect because I don’t think he has one clear path to victory. His striking is OK and his grappling is OK but I think he will get beaten in both aspects by good opponents.
With that said, I don’t feel particularly excited by the matchup or particularly confident.
I do feel that Kazama is more dependent on grappling success, while Grigoriou might have multiple paths to victory.
Kazama is OK, but like… he went 2/13 on takedowns on the regionals against some guy named Maimaitituoheti Keremuaili… It’s just tough to project him to easily outwrestle UFC competition.
If Kazama can consistently get on top, then he can have success as I do respect his grappling game, even from the bottom position. I cannot project him to easily land takedowns here though.
While the fight plays out on the feet, I still trust Grigoriou more. He’s flashier and probably has significantly more knockout upside. He still has those leg kicks in his back pocket which could be a recipe for success. I don’t know if Kazama is capable of taking damage at all at this point.
I will pick Grigoriou to primarily choose to strike, nullify takedowns, kick at the legs of Kazama and potentially eventually hurt him. Although the cardio angle still makes me nervous, and perhaps there’s some merit to Kazama being able to survive and having a better chance later in the fight.
—
On DraftKings, Grigoriou is my preferred target at 8.8k but it’s tough to feel confident in him.
The main upside angle is that Kazama has been brutalized on the feet in back-to-back UFC fights. In theory, Grigoriou is the more competent striker of the two, with some tools that could be effective, and help lead him to a knockout.
He is actually -120 to win ITD which is very strong and certainly puts him in play for tournaments. I would consider him very boom or bust though, as volume shouldn’t be incredible and there’s a decent chance he won’t have success grappling.
Kazama has been knocked out in each of his last three losses though, so I’m willing to back Grigoriou to a degree. There aren’t great options on this slate either, so it’s less risky to take a chance where you’re not sacrificing another great option. And it’s also a spot where the field will be hesitant to play him, so he shouldn’t be extremely popular.
There’s no reason to be confident here, in Grigoriou winning cleanly or winning at all, but he has some tools, some narrative and decent enough metrics to make him worth considering. I’ll probably end up near the field but coming in overweight is somewhat intriguing as well.
Kazama at 7.4k is OK as a leverage target but he’s not someone you’ll be excited by.
The real upside is that if he’s dependent on grappling, he’ll likely score very well in a win. On Road to UFC, he would have scored about 80 points. It’s mediocre but on this slate, 80+ would be a decent result for a fighter who should be very low owned.
Plus, with Grigoriou’s cardio issues, maybe there’s the additional late path to victory for Kazama which isn’t fully factored in.
Kazama is only +330 to win ITD though and is a pretty big underdog, so I don’t think this is a play I am likely to attack. He’s just not a great fighter and I’m not confident that he will succeed in any form.
I’m open to the idea that Grigoriou could underperform again or that Kazama could look better given the small sample we have on him, but I don’t have high expectations and will probably end up relatively light on Kazama this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Grigoriou by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad
Fight Odds: Rosa -213, Kianzad +180
Odds to Finish: +325
DraftKings Salaries: Rosa 8.6k, Kianzad 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a blue-collar matchup here in the women’s bantamweight division between Karol Rosa and Pannie Kianzad. I honestly thought these girls had fought like ten times before lol, but I checked tapology and I can confirm that they have not.
Rosa is probably best as a volume striker. She lands 6.34 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.78 in return. She can keep up a high pace and I generally like her ability to score offense. She just went to war against Irene Aldana and landed a ridiculous 204 significant strikes in 15 minutes. She still lost the fight though and absorbed 145 significant strikes herself.
Rosa also can land takedowns. She lands 1.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of obtaining and riding out top position. I just like Rosa’s overall willingness to try to score offense and she has the cardio to keep the output going. Rosa defends takedowns at 68 percent and I consider her a decent defensive wrestler.
Rosa will be taking on Pannie Kianzad. Kianzad thrives as a boxer. She has crisp boxing and she actually hits pretty hard for a woman. I don’t expect her to knock many fighters out or anything (she has never even landed a knockdown in 10 UFC fights), but her strikes tend to land hard and look impactful to the judges.
Kianzad lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.67 in return, and she only defends strikes at 53 percent. So she is a bit hittable and isn’t safe to easily win fights on the feet against competent strikers. She is still very competent offensively though and has solid volume and metrics.
Kianzad doesn’t wrestle much. She lands 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. So you can’t expect her to land takedowns. She does defend takedowns at 66 percent and can be held down here and there. She isn’t the easiest to take and hold down, but decent grapplers can have success against her in spots.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Rosa slightly because she has more paths to victory. If anyone lands takedowns here, I expect it to be Rosa. So she just has more ways to win rounds in general.
However, I am not really expecting Rosa to walk out there at the beginning of every round, land a takedown, and ride out top position. I do think these girls will strike for stretches and probably for a whole round or two.
On the feet, I think this is quite close. Both girls are capable offensively and both are quite hittable. I honestly could see this being a very fun matchup. I like Rosa’s output and aggression more, but I think Kianzad is maybe more skillful in boxing range. I just think this will be back and forth standing. The pace will likely be very high.
I still think Rosa is more likely to land takedowns, and I do like her overall volume ceiling a little more on the feet. So I will pick Rosa to win. However, there is a very good chance this fight goes 15 minutes and plays out very competitively.
—
On DraftKings, Rosa is one of those rare fighters who tends to break the typical system.
She doesn’t have much KO equity and is only +350 to win ITD. She wrestles a little bit, but not a lot. The combination of those things don’t make for a great fantasy asset.
However, she has recorded absolutely insane volume metrics in several of her fights. She has topped 120 sig. strikes four times in nine tries, reaching a ceiling of 171 and 204.
On DK, it’s led to some fantastic scores of 112, 110, 109, 89, 105, and 73. Most recently, she scored 82 in a loss.
For better or for worse, she’s probably been owned more than she should be based on historics, but she’s come through more often than not.
Now in a fight against Kianzad, I am expecting a pretty decent pace and another opportunity for Rosa to land tons of volume. It’s also not a bad matchup for her to mix in takedowns, and 1-2 seems realistic.
The combination of those things are going to put me on Rosa on this slate at 8.6k. On a different slate with more options, perhaps not. At 8.6k, Rosa has a decent chance to land 120 strikes, multiple takedowns, and clear 10x.
You could still argue that she’s not an elite fantasy target, as 85-90 points can be beaten. But her floor seems very strong, and given her history surpassing 150 strikes and/or mixing in several takedowns, I think Rosa’s ceiling is still legitimately high in this matchup.
I’m personally willing to target her moderately at 8.6k. Maybe it’s a foolish thought but I like the pacing and potential for output.
Kianzad at 7.6k is mildly interesting only for the output potential in a high-paced fight.
The problem is that floor is not worth chasing on this slate, as we’re going to get a winner at 7k or 6.7k. If we’re targeting another dog, we need to be shooting for an upside scenario.
And I’m just not sure Kianzad has that upside scenario. She doesn’t really wrestle and her ITD line is +1100. She has won five times in the UFC and has scored 72-81 every single time.
I guess you can make the argument that Kianzad could beat out Gutierrez if Gutierrez scores in the mid-70s, which he does often. That would be a pretty sneaky leverage target, though it feels like the mid 80s is probably Kianzad’s ceiling. I’m not sure it’s a risk I want to take.
I do think Kianzad could strike competitively with Rosa though. She won’t be highly owned at all. Perhaps it’s worth a small percentage if you have a large portfolio to work with, but there are other dogs I would rather chase personally for upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosa by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jhonta Diniz vs. Karl Williams
Fight Odds: Williams -208, Diniz +176
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Williams 9k, Diniz 7.2k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Karl Williams is a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season who’s kept up his winning ways thus far since entering the promotion – he’s 3-0 in the UFC and 10-1 as a pro. Jhonta Diniz is a Contender Series alum from this past season who made good on his debut back in April with a knockout win over Austen Lane – he’s 7-0 as a pro.
The striking component:
We haven’t seen a ton of Williams on the feet in his pro career due to how dominant he’s been with his wrestling. In the bit we have to go on, he’s got a decent 1-2, lead hook and some respectable leg kicks.
He doesn’t seem lost on the feet and has shown some decent hand speed but traditionally hasn’t thrown much to boot. He will leave himself a bit open in his flurries and has caught a few counter shots though.
In his debut against Brzeski, we only saw about 4 minutes standing where both guys landed some good shots, but Williams was actually able to drop him in the 2nd round.
However, we got a much larger sample of Williams standing against Sherman where he actually did a lot better than I expected him to.
He fought smart in not standing in front of Sherman and was able to use his jab effectively over the course of 15 minutes where he out landed Sherman to the head 53 to 26. Sherman’s obviously not a world beater but a historically higher volume striker and Williams held him to 46 distance strikes – the leg kicks of Sherman did give him some issues though as the fight progressed.
More recently, we only got about 4.5 minutes of distance in the Tafa fight where the distance strikes were essentially even, but virtually every time Tafa landed something, it was drawing bigger reactions from Williams which we saw at points against Brzeski and Sherman as well.
Despite Williams getting 3.5 minutes of control in the last round, it was just one larger flurry from Tafa which earned him that round on two judges’ scorecards.
Overall, Williams’ stand up is serviceable to his style but he’s got a KO loss coming in the near future.
Diniz comes from a kickboxing background where he went 22-7 before making the move over to MMA back in 2022.
He also fought in some of the more notable promotions in WGP and GLORY.
Diniz went 3-4 in GLORY, so he did struggle when he fought more elite talents in Rico Verhoeven and Hesdy Gerges but he did go the duration with Verhoeven and the Gerges fight was a corner stoppage. So, it does appear that the guy is durable, having only been proper KO’d once which was with a high kick from a tough Croatian.
In MMA, his technicality does show through as he’ll throw a diverse arsenal of strikes between punches, kicks, knees and elbows – Diniz also has a muay thai background.
He’s got decent hand speed, picks his shots well and obviously brings bigger power components with all seven of his pro wins coming via KO.
His strength of competition has been low which needs to be noted. He did have some early struggles with Neves on DWCS in tracking him down and ate some shots of his own, but he started to chip away and found the finish with a straight right.
He then pretty much traded bombs with Lane in the 2nd round, finding the button.
Overall, I’m curious to see how he fairs when facing more competent levels of strikers, but he’ll eat alive the bottom of the barrel guys in this division on the feet.
How it plays out: Diniz will be the better striker in this bout and the more potent guy. It really just comes down to how long the fight is going to be on the feet and if Diniz can find that opening. But as alluded to above in relation to the Tafa fight, Diniz may still have round winning potential on moments if he’s able to land enough damage in flurries.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Williams comes from a wrestling background, and it shows through in his fights. He’ll relentlessly pursue TDs and work a wet blanket type of style.
In certain spots, he’s gone to mat returns and in other spots he’s been able to control guys on the mat for very large percentages of his fights. He has thrown GNP in certain fights, can advance position and has taken backs before.
However, he hasn’t really shown to be much of a submission grappler with no pro or amateur wins via the method. But the dude is a relentless grinder and that’s what he prioritizes.
The most impressive W for him was his DWCS fight against Jimmy Lawson – a former wrestler out of Penn State (one of the best collegiate programs in the country).
He took that fight on 10 days’ notice and rag dolled Lawson for nearly the entire fight. He lost position one time but was able to work up and get back on top – just an impressive performance in totality.
In his debut, he went 8 for 13 on TDs against Brzeski and accrued 10 minutes of control time. However, outside of 1 TD in the 1st against Sherman, he got shut out the rest of the fight, going 1/10 which isn’t the best of looks – although Sherman is a decent TD defender historically.
He more recently went 7/12 on TDs against Tafa, racking up 10.5 minutes of control.
Overall, he’s fought at light-heavyweight in the past but having the ability to wrestle at heavyweight can be a “cheat code” in a lot of ways because many guys in the division don’t have the skillset to deal with a grinding style. His lack of finishing ability is of concern though and he can get tired in extended fights.
There’s very little to say of Diniz here given his lack of MMA sample and striking success.
Apparently, he’s a blue belt in BJJ and he stuffed roughly four TDAs regionally before KOing opponents standing shortly after.
However, he got taken down without much issue early in his debut against Lane, spending 4.5 minutes on his back while losing the round.
He was trying to move a bit, but he by and large looked lost down there and Austen Lane isn’t a special talent. But he survived the round to his credit and stuffed the following three shots the next round.
That’s all we got of Diniz on the ground to date.
How it plays out: The ground is one way traffic towards Williams here as we know what the game plan is going to be. But given that he largely got shut out by Sherman and guys like Brzeski and Tafa were able to work up under Williams multiple times, it does leave some narrative optimism for Diniz. At the same time, we have ZERO evidence that Diniz can get off his back and looks generally lost there so it’s a scenario where 1 takedown from Williams may be a round.
It’s pretty par for the course for me to pick the wrestler to win at heavyweight versus a newer to MMA kickboxer, with a lacking ground game. At the same time, the concerns for Williams are still multifaceted in that he doesn’t react well to punches, lacks finishing prowess and slows down past 7.5 minutes. I still think Williams grinds him out as the most likely outcome, but his style could leave the back door open for Diniz.
—
On DraftKings, I guess this is one of my favorite fights on the slate, just by default.
It seems pretty binary in that Williams is going to try and wrestle, and Diniz will need a knockout. Either path could score well, though there’s always room for a bust in the HW division.
Williams is priced up to 9k and he’s an easy spend up for me. He’s scored 130, 71 and 117 in his three UFC wins, each of which came by decision. It at least shows a ceiling though it also shows a weak floor.
My fear in this particular matchup for Williams is that he won’t need lots of takedowns. He may just need three, with one per round. That definitely concerns me a little as Diniz may just not be able to fight hard enough to make Williams work.
However, three takedowns could be 13 minutes of control, which gives Williams a decent floor in the matchup, and I assume he can land a fair amount of strikes in that span. He also may have a better chance to win ITD here at +240 compared to past fights.
You don’t have to make Williams the No. 1 priority on this slate and it’s fine to use him as a secondary target, or pivot elsewhere for finishing upside. I think he likely dominates via grappling in a win and can push the 90s to 100s, and at 9k, Williams interests me a decent amount.
Diniz at 7.2k is a fairly easy underdog target in that a win should be an early KO for him if he wins at all. His ITD line is actually shockingly strong at +185, which says a lot as he’s only +170 to win.
The fear is that if Williams grinds him out early and Diniz somehow wins late, he could fail on a ceiling. We did see that happen to a degree in Diniz’ last matchup and he still put up 90 points though.
I don’t think Diniz will win, and I won’t force him into lineups, but he clearly has KO upside and works as a strong pivot off Gutierrez. I also think Diniz probably ends up as the second highest owned fighter below Tybura, due to him winning by KO in his debut.
It may not be worth it to be much heavier than the field on Diniz this week but at 7.2k, with KO upside, on a short slate, he’s worth consideration and exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Youssef Zalal vs. Jarno Errens
Fight Odds: Zalal -467, Errens +353
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Zalal 9.4k, Errens 6.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jarno Errens is coming off his first UFC victory earlier this year but after dropping his first few in the organization, he may be on the chopping block with a loss on Saturday – he’s 14-5-1 as a pro. Youssef Zalal went 3-3-1 in his first UFC stint between 2020 and 2022 but returned to the organization in March with a solid win over Billy Quarantillo – he’s also 14-5-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Errens comes from a kickboxing background which is on display in his fights. He works more in the mid-range to pressure game, but his work rate has been a bit all over the board.
He’s reasonably technical and has shown some pop, but he’s not a perennial KO artist at the same time with only 1 of his 14 pro wins coming via strikes at distance. He has hurt opponents though in a handful of fights, specifically in his last 2 fights against Choi and Nguyen.
I don’t think he’s anything special defensively but he has gotten the better of most exchanges regionally. However, he struggled with the length/evasion of Gomis, and the kicks of Choi gave him some bigger issues where he actually got knocked down via leg kicks. He has been dropped regionally too so he’s not invincible despite never being KO’d as a pro.
Most recently, he was able to just outwork Nguyen to a decision, outlanding him 105 to 63. Despite struggling with some leg kicks against Choi, kicking played a good role in the last outing along with supplementary body work for Errens.
Overall, we’ve seen good and bad with Errens and against different styles of strikers which still makes him a bit difficult to assess.
Zalal comes from a kickboxing background and trains out of the Factory X team in Denver. He likes to use a lot of outside, lateral movement and works more of a flowy/blitz striking style.
He’ll often switch stances, throws solid straight shots and has some explosive knees.
He only lands 2.9 SLpM at 49% but those numbers are skewed down a good bit from all the grappling in his fights – he lands 5.6 distance strikes/minute which is more representative of his pace.
So, despite his lower significant number, he’s outpaced 7 of 8 UFC opponents (albeit not by much on a few) as his range management has been pretty good in the aggregate, but he has had some struggles with pressure at times.
But he’s not a guy usually eating extended combos with his defensive numbers sitting at just 1.7 SApM at 65% — also defending at distance at 68%. He also has a positive distance differential of +2.2/minute which is solid.
Zalal wasn’t much of a hitter in his first stint but his best core competency outside of his footwork is his hand speed to where he’s also hurt two opponents to the body in Griffin and Blackshear.
Zalal’s obviously finished a bunch outside of the UFC when fighting lesser levels of competition, but he also hurt Quarantillo multiple times with knees as well.
So, you’re not going to see him loading big shots, but he can be sneaky with his accuracy in slipping stuff in at the right spots.
Overall, Zalal’s always been a tricky guy to fight on the feet regardless of opponent because he’s efficient and good defensively.
How it plays out: The most comparable opponent to Zalal for Errens is probably Gomis where Errens did get out landed there. But the difference between a Gomis and Zalal is that Zalal is going to throw more volume as well. I just feel Zalal is the more effective range striker and is clearly better defensively. I can see merit to Errens though if he’s able to force a dirtier fight, but I also see Zalal’s style generally frustrating him – particularly with movement and kicks.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Errens is a brown belt in Judo, but he’s been pretty jekyll and hyde on the ground.
He’s got 5 pro wins via submission, but they were fights I wasn’t able to view and against a combined strength of competition at 7-14-1, so take that for what you will.
In the fights I was able to view, the floor has largely given him bigger issues. He really struggles with his TDD and get up game as a guy who will look to play guard.
He will be aggressive in attacking early but opponents that have been able to remain positionally responsible will just ride out minutes on him.
In his last regional W over Abdullaev, he largely got outwrestled there but was able to sweep in the 3rd round which ultimately edged him that decision – if he didn’t find that sweep, he would have lost and would have been riding a two-fight losing streak (at the time).
Gomis and Choi getting on top of him also aided in him dropping those fights as well, where he conceded eight minutes in the 1st contest and five in the 2nd.
In his defense, in the times he’s been able to get into top positions, he’s shown to be stronger there but he’s not really initiating wrestling – he’s hit some nice throws here and there though.
Overall, he’s not a fish out of water on his back from a BJJ perspective but his TDD and get up game needs a healthy amount of work.
Zalal is a recently crowned BJJ black belt as of January and has shown offensive wrestling chops, landing 2.3 TDs per 15 minutes but at only 34%. He particularly excels with single legs and in taking the back.
However, he doesn’t really possess chain wrestling and despite being able to take the back on numerous opponents – he traditionally hasn’t been able to find subs.
He did get out-wrestled and out-grappled by Topuria but really no shame considering Topuria is the sitting champion now. He did struggle with the grinding of Griffin at points as well.
He got a lot of cage push against Woodson but really struggled to secure TDs, and he could have very well won that fight if he didn’t get caught in sub attempts at the ends of the 2nd and 3rd rounds though.
Semi similar with Blackshear as both guys had grappling success in the first two rounds, but Blackshear was able to just slightly edge on optics/sequencing to win those rounds and force a draw – but Zalal’s offensive success there can’t be downplayed because Blackshear is not an easy guy to have grappling success against and he did.
But most recently, he’s coming off dominating Quarantillo on the mat who’s a black belt and handed him his first submission loss as a pro. The main improvement I saw from Zalal in that fight was his ability to use body triangles and follow hips better, which he had some struggles doing in the past.
Overall, wrestling/grappling has been a component of Zalal winning and losing his fights but his last two UFC fights against capable grapplers shows Zalal evolutions.
How it plays out: Given some of the improvements I’ve seen from Zalal, I’d have to favor him on the ground. If he can have the success he’s had against guys like Blackshear and Quarantillo (who are better ground fighters), I don’t see why he couldn’t against Errens assuming it’s a gameplan he pursues. As long as he can avoid entry guard subs or over-rotations from Errens judo, he should be able to accrue minutes as Errens TDD is pretty poor.
I’ve got to give Errens props in the sense that I thought he had a good performance last time out against Nguyen. But as a result, he’s now getting a step back up in competition and I’d say that Zalal is getting a step down from Quarantillo. As noted, there were some dodgy performances from Zalal in the first run but he’s still a young guy at 27 years old and the year and half away from the UFC did wonders for him to patch up some holes. I like Zalal to send Errens packing but there are still aspects of his historic game that can lead him to tighter margins at times.
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On DraftKings, Zalal is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k and I’m expecting him to be very chalky now that we have an easy place to save salary.
With that noted, Zalal/Gutierrez should be one of the most popular constructions on this slate, so if you’re attacking that route, you need significant work elsewhere to be different.
I haven’t been a big Zalal guy in the past though, and I’m unsure exactly what I want to do here given that Zala is a huge favorite, with a grappling advantage. In theory, he’s set up for another potential smash performance.
He’s only +200 to win ITD though which isn’t good for a near -500 favorite, and it does circle back to my previous breakdowns where I question his style and finishing ability. He just doesn’t like to engage or produce offense.
But I can’t deny he looked impressive against Quarnatillo, and submitting him is not an easy task. If he can beat Quarantillo like that, I see no reason why he can’t have similar success against Errens.
Ultimately, I think Zalal is a strong play. There is major risk within his style, but that will primarily come if he chooses not to grapple or fails doing so. Neither seem super likely, and I guess the bigger question is what level of domination we’ll see once he hits the mat.
As the odds are -200 to actually go the full distance, you can sell me on the idea that Zalal will be overvalued here. In previous decisions, Zalal has scored 95, 69 and 88 points, which wouldn’t be ideal for 9.4k.
He feels quite safe though and there’s definitely upside in the matchup. If I have the room to pay up, I’ll definitely consider Zalal and moderate exposure feels fine. But I don’t mind pivoting to a cheaper option if necessary or simply saving the salary outright to be unique in certain constructions.
Errens at 6.8k doesn’t really interest me. I don’t think he’s going to have wrestling success, and Zalal is absorbing an absurdly low rate of strikes per minute because he won’t engage.
For Errens to really break the slate, he’d need a knockout. Scoring 70-80 points in a striking based decision would only matter if Gutierrez completely busts. And Errens is +675 to win ITD here which isn’t good.
If you want to play a small dose of Errens for KO upside and extreme leverage against Zalal and Gutierrez, I can accept that in large fields, but it’s a pretty difficult matchup to score and I’d recommend being very light in general.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Stephanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar
Fight Odds: Luciano -162, Alencar +140
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Luciano 8.5k, Alencar 7.7k
Weight Class: 115
We have a rare debut rematch on tap as Stephanie Luciano will make her first appearance in the UFC against Talita Alencar, the same opponent whom she fought to a draw against on the Contender Series in 2023.
Luciano is 5-1-1 professionally at age 24, and although she’s fared just fine on the regional scene, I’m not expecting a breakthrough once she competes against UFC level opponents.
Luciano has earned two wins by TKO and three by decision, and she’s a long, rangy muay-thai striker who can have some success at distance. That was one of her main advantages over Alencar, who has the shortest reach in the UFC at 58 inches. Luciano holds a 65 inch reach and will be five inches taller than Alencar as well.
There’s not a massive sample of tape on Luciano, but she went the distance with a 0-0 girl and a 2-0 girl in 2021. She then lost a split decision to a 3-1-1 fighter in 2022 which I can’t view. She won by TKO via attrition in 2022 and had a nice finishing sequence where she swarmed her opponent against the cage.
Then she won the Jungle Fight championship in 2022 which largely took place on the ground, where both fighters were clinching and landing takedowns.
And then we have her most recent bout which came against Alencar and is clearly the most usable piece of footage to study.
In that fight, Alencar was able to win the first two rounds with takedowns and control, but she was exhausted, and was battered in the third round to the point of a near stoppage, which resulted in the draw.
Alencar, who I’ll discuss further in a moment, landed four takedowns on 24 attempts and controlled Luciano for 6:28.
I have very mixed feelings about the fight because Alencar didn’t have too much trouble getting Luciano down, and she is the superior grappler in the matchup. She’s a BJJ specialist, a black belt, and a multiple time IBJJF champion. That alone doesn’t mean a whole lot, but Alencar has a fairly strong BJJ pedigree, and her style is much more reliant on the ground game.
On the feet, Alencar is not great. Her boxing game is not technically sound, and she won’t be super impactful there. She is willing to be aggressive and throw, but distance striking is not a real path to victory for Alencar at this point and that was again backed up by her UFC debut performance against Rayanne dos Santos.
This matchup, the rematch, will be quite binary in that Alencar is clearly the better grappler and Luciano is clearly the better striker. The market has decided that Luciano has the better style and is more likely to win this time around, but I’m not so sure.
One of my main problems is that Alencar got Luciano down pretty easily. Being that Luciano is way taller and longer, Alencar just grabbed a single leg and dumped her down. A couple times, Luciano was able to scramble back to her feet but other times, she went down easily and just accepted bottom position.
On top, Alencar is decent. She transitions well and can land ground-and-pound. She has a capable back take and was able to get Luciano’s back for multiple minutes in the second round.
And she also attempted 24 freaking takedowns over 15 minutes. This is not a one-hitter quitter type who will attempt one takedown and give up. Yes, she got exhausted, but Alencar attempted 5, 9, and 10 takedowns in rounds 1, 2, and 3 which is a super high rate.
The combination of her skill on the mat, and her wrestling volume is surely enough to give Alencar significant win equity in this matchup.
On DWCS, she was tired by the end of round one though. She was extremely tired by the end of round two and by round three, it was just a point of survival. If her cardio fails her once again then yeah, Luciano will be the deserving favorite and will potentially have TKO equity but if Alencar is more fresh, she might just win the fight easily.
Alencar has since fought once in the UFC where she won a decision she probably didn’t deserve. She attempted another nine takedowns but only landed one of them, and couldn’t do much on the feet.
It mostly backs up my idea that Alencar isn’t a legit prospect either and she’s not super capable of producing offense. Her wrestling is mediocre and it will fail her a lot of times. But she did get through 15 minutes without a ton of trouble and was again attempting five takedowns in the final round.
Look, unless you’re certain about the exact moment in time where Alencar will start to exhaust herself, it’s tough to be sure how this fight will play out.
If Luciano can stuff takedowns from the start, she’ll win clearly and may even win by TKO. She is far more effective at distance and can easily wear on Alencar. She can even land a takedown and get on top of Alencar if she’s super tired.
But based on what I saw on DWCS, I think there’s a good chance Alencar can have wrestling success and win rounds too. And based on Alencar’s willingness to wrestle over and over and over again, I do still think there’s a chance for her to win two of three rounds and take a decision.
Last note – I did see an interview from Alencar talking about the DWCS situation and she basically said she was so nervous that she could not breathe. She probably had an adrenaline dump which makes sense. It really isn’t helpful as there’s no way to know if she’ll be “nervous” again but does give some plausibility to the idea that she could have better cardio in a rematch.
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On DraftKings, the worst result would be the result that occurred the first time these two fought.
Alencar landed 4 takedowns and 66 total strikes, and she would have scored about 82 points had she been given the decision. Luciano landed 87 sig. strikes, 136 total strikes, one reversal and one takedown, and she would have scored about 90 points in a decision.
If Alencar can do a little more, for example landing one additional takedown in round three, that could secure her another 10 points and push her north of 90 points at 7.7k. If Luciano could have somehow found the late stoppage, those extra 15 points would have pushed her past the 100 mark at 8.5k.
But if these two neutralize each other, then we’re simply much less likely to find an optimal score, which is the fear and probably the most likely outcome. Just based on their styles though, you could sell me on taking another chance.
Luciano at 8.5k very likely needs a stoppage, which is still the problem. It’s tough to bet on her landing another takedown or reversal, or having a blowout 70 strike round like she had on DWCS. She’s only +325 to win ITD here which is poor, and for that reason, it’s tough to be super excited.
I’m willing to consider the idea that Luciano can stuff takedowns one round earlier, and potentially have a dominant second and third round, possibly resulting in a late finish. From there, given her striking rate, she could put up a huge score. I think it’s pretty risky to invest heavily here, but I don’t mind using her as a secondary target. I expect the field might be excited by her.
Alencar is more obvious in that she’s a grappling oriented fighter, and is cheaper at 7.7k. Her ITD line is worse at +475 but she did have Luciano’s back at one point, though I didn’t feel like a submission was imminent.
She probably won’t rack up strikes as easily so it will have to come with lots of takedowns and lots of control. Another 3-4 feels realistic for Alencar in a win, but chasing 5-7 feels tougher. Attempting 24+ takedowns in three rounds does make it possible though.
I’m simply worried that Luciano will do enough in one of the rounds to shut Alencar out of a huge ceiling. I’m also still willing to consider Alencar as a secondary target given her price and style, but it feels slightly more floor based, which has some merit on a small slate.
I won’t be ultra aggressive on either side here and I think my fears are well documented, but the binary dynamic still does give both sides hope of exceeding value in a win, and I’ll have mild shares, or more, because of it.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Luciano by Decision (Confidence=Low)