UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi (11/2/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi
Fight Odds: Moreno -174, Albazi +149
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Moreno 8.5k, Albazi 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
The former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is set to debut another UFC card on Saturday, this time against up-and-comer Amir Albazi.
Moreno is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2018-19, and there’s a bit of uncertainty as far as where his career is headed. He’s still young enough at age 30, but he’s expressed some fatigue that will come with fighting for the championship six times, and flying the flag for his native Mexican fanbase.
Despite the recent losses, I still consider Moreno among the best fighters in this division, and recent split-decisions against Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval won’t do enough to dissuade me from backing him once again.
To be fair to Moreno, Pantoja and Royval are very legit. I was never a huge fan of Royval, but I noted prior to his recent main event against Tatsuro Taira, that Royval put on an absurd pace against Moreno, attempting 510 sig. strikes in 25 minutes to Moreno’s 211.
Royval then went on to upset Taira in similar fashion. Ultimately, pacing is important.
Quite similarly against Pantoja, Moreno fought well but still ate nearly 130 sig. strikes and had to defend 11 takedown attempts. Pantoja is a super legit grappler and landed six of them, earning nearly 8.5 minutes of control.
I do think that’s an important aspect as far as this matchup against Albazi, but all things considered, I don’t think close losses to Pantoja and Royval are an indication that Moreno cannot compete any more.
Amir Albazi on the other hand still holds a pro record of 17-1, and he’s 5-0 in the UFC with a split decision victory over Kai Kara-France in 2023.
To be honest, I thought Albazi lost that fight. He was outlanded 90 to 39 at distance, and he was outwrestled in takedowns 2:1. He banked one round with back control but was otherwise ineffective, only landing 43 sig. strikes in 25 minutes.
I also haven’t been the biggest Albazi supporter in his fights leading up to that win. Quick victories over Malcolm Gordon and Francisco Figueiredo are meaningless, and I don’t hold much value in a tight decision against Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
Perhaps his win over Alessandro Costa was better, but Costa didn’t put up much of a fight and has likely improved since.
It’s tough for me to get past Albazi’s current metrics as well. He’s landing 2.80 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.07 with a 63 percent defensive rate.
He also lands 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes but is only defending at 40 percent.
I do think he’s a quite decent wrestler and I think he can be impactful at this level to a degree, but he’s yet to land more than two takedowns in a fight. I also like his back control, but holding onto the back at this level, in this division, isn’t an easy task.
As far as his striking metrics, I mean, I am very concerned by what I’ve seen in extended fights. Even purely at distance, Albazi is landing 3.56 strikes per minute with a -1.00 ratio, which is bad. For comparison, Moreno is landing 4.86 per minute at distance with a +0.20 ratio.
And that still factors in both of Moreno’s recent losses where he absorbed 145 and 129 sig. strikes. I don’t love that Moreno absorbed that many strikes, but that the same time, there is nothing to suggest Albazi is capable of anything close to those numbers.
For another comparison’s sake, when Moreno fought KKF, Moreno outlanded him 91 to 82 and KKF beat him out the other time 48 to 47 in three rounds. KKF is a good, technical kickboxer but not the type to blow you out of the water.
So in pure striking exchanges, I don’t see a way to really project Albazi to beat Moreno over five rounds.
Moreno’s volume ceiling on paper is far superior, and he’s fairly consistent. He can attack multiple levels. He has fast hands and power. He’s been in wars.
The only real negative is that he’s been hit a bunch, and he can be a bit reckless at times and get hurt. He’s been knocked down five times but he’s never been KOd. I think there’s some merit to Albazi hurting Moreno at some point but I don’t think that outcome comes at a super high rate considering how little Albazi throws.
Moreno is also bigger and longer than Albazi by a couple of inches, which is helpful.
As a pure grappler, Albazi can compete with Moreno. Moreno defends takedowns at 63 percent and he has had his back taken before. Pantoja was able to control him most recently.
There’s some upside to Albazi landing 3-5 takedowns over 25 minutes, and banking a couple rounds with back control. At the same time, he just went 1/9 on takedowns against KKF.
Furthermore, Albazi slipped off the top of KKF a couple of times, and I didn’t love what I saw from him on the bottom. Albazi is defending takedowns at a very poor 40%, and Moreno is still a legit wrestler and grappler who averages more takedowns per 15 than Albazi does.
So even if Albazi can wrestle a bit, Moreno can also wrestle, and I don’t think Albazi has a huge advantage there.
Another note – I was disappointed that Moreno only attempted five takedowns against Royval. He only attempted one in the first 10 minutes. His game planning has been a bit hit or miss and that’s another slight concern, I’m not very confident exactly how Moreno will approach this.
I still think he will attempt some takedowns throughout the course of the fight, and I think he can get some control on top if he wants.
Overall, I just view Moreno as the clearly superior fighter. He is far more tested and proven as a striker, and he’s very competent as a grappler. Albazi has some upside within his style but outside of a big KO or a back take, I don’t expect him to be super effective minute per minute.
Albazi will probably want to slow the fight down and hope to win a very competitive decision, which I think is his most realistic win condition. It’s viable but I’ll take the more consistent offense and pacing from Moreno to be enough to get his hand raised.
—
On DraftKings, Moreno and Albazi will be key pieces to the slate considering the five-round matchup.
I personally like Moreno quite a bit and I think he’s being undervalued in this matchup, or at least was being undervalued compared to his early-week betting lines which have now climbed a bit. At 8.5k, it’s hard to pass up on him in tournaments, and I also expect him to be very popular this week.
The only real downside is that his ceiling has been a bit more limited than we’d like in five-round matchups. He’s seen wins of 99, 80 and 97 which is not exactly ideal. However, he also had a draw that scored 80 and a loss that scored 95 in that span.
Either way, you could make the argument that Moreno may not wrestle aggressively or may be limited by Albazi’s skill set. In a pure striking fight, perhaps the pace is slower than we’d like, and perhaps it goes the distance where Moreno underperforms a bit. He’s only +235 to win ITD which is mediocre.
I still think it’s very likely he exceeds value at the 8.5k price tag, and contends for the optimal lineup. If you want to get a bit cute in large fields and fade the main event in some spots to be unique, I don’t hate that.
But Moreno presents a very high floor in a win, and a moderate ceiling. For the price, he’s one of the better plays on this slate outright.
Albazi at 7.7k is less exciting to me, but may have a higher ceiling than Moreno, and will surely be a leverage candidate as well.
I say “may” because he’s literally coming off a five-round win that scored him 68 points. Gross.
Still, if he beats Moreno, I would think damage or wrestling would come into play. He probably needs several takedowns landed with control. He doesn’t even rate out well for ITD purposes at +550 which is pretty awful.
He will get some love for sure as an undefeated UFC fighter in a five-round matchup. And this division fights competitively so he could pull off a close win, perhaps.
I like Albazi as a secondary target just by default. In a win, he should wrestle some and exceed value at his price. I just don’t love him as a talent and I’m worried about his metrics, and I don’t view this as a great matchup for him to succeed.
So likely, I’ll be somewhat light on Albazi myself. I’ll still mix him into tournament lineups considering he should be significantly less owned than Moreno, and he’s cash viable as well, but there is a decent chance I am underweight compared to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moreno by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas
Fight Odds: Blanchfield -125, Namajunas +109
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Blanchfield 8.4k, Namajunas 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
The old guard versus the new – Erin Blanchfield will get another five-round opportunity on Saturday against the former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.
Blanchfield disappointed in her first main event in March, losing a clear decision to Manon Fiorot that went the full 25 minutes. It wasn’t completely unexpected though.
Prior to that bout, we shared some concerns about Blanchfield’s style and how she may be too dependent on takedowns. While her grappling game is still very legit, Blanchfield has now only landed 1 takedown on her last 20 attempts, and simply cannot get the fight to the mat with any consistency.
Blanchfield is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and her submission grappling and pacing have been the biggest factors in her success. She still lands 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes and can swarm opponents on the mat, transition to dominant positions and finish them off.
She’s also shown to have a similar style standing, with the ability to pressure, annoy, and swarm her opponents. Though in comparison to her submission grappling, her striking is still not fully developed or technical, and it’s arguably a liability in her game.
The wrestling is really the glue to her game because it’s the transitional point between her striking and grappling, and unfortunately, that’s where we still have some question marks.
While Blanchfield has had lots of success, it’s come primarily against weaker opponents who have poor histories of defending in grappling exchanges. While I can’t dock her for that, it would be ideal to see her wrestling translate easily to a better tier of competition, but it has not.
Blanchfield was shut out against JJ Aldrich, going 0/4 there, and she was shut out against Taila Santos, going 0/14. Granted, she still found a way to pull off wins in both matchups, but it’s not a case of Blanchfield having such dominant wrestling that we’re confident it will be enough to easily get past the upper tier of this division. She then went 0/3 on takedowns against Fiorot.
It’s a major concern for me because it’s put her in a situation where she will either A) land takedowns, which likely leads to domination, or B) not land takedowns, which likely leads to her losing rounds or potentially losing the fight.
Blanchfield is only 25 years old though, which is important to remember. She’s still in the developing stages of her professional career, which is both a good thing and a bad thing.
It’s a good thing because we should expect continued improvements in areas she might be weak, and in terms of future potential, Blanchfield has a ton of it. The downside is that at age 25, it is still quite possible that she gets thrown into the fire a bit too soon, and won’t live up to the immediate hype.
On the feet, Blanchfield just doesn’t have the technique or firepower to stay competitive at the top level. She was outlanded at distance only 167 to 124 by Fiorot, but it felt like a wider gap than that in pure effectiveness.
Now she’ll take on Rose Namajunas, who’s at the tail end of a Hall-of-Fame career at age 32, and is still winning fights, coming off yet another ME victory over Tracy Cortez in July.
Namajunas has never been a fighter I’ve had the most confidence in. She doesn’t fight at a super high pace and is somewhat limited by her output. But she’s very well-rounded and experienced, and effective enough on the feet to get past most.
She outwrestled Cortez in that spot, landing five takedowns to Cortez’ two, and also beat Cortez up at distance 93 to 52.
It seems like a pretty clear situation where Blanchfield will once again need takedowns, and I don’t feel exceptionally confident that she’ll get them.
On the feet, Namajunas is averaging 3.70 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.38 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate. Her volume ceiling has always been a bit of a concern and she’s only landed 96 and 93 sig. strikes in her last two five-round fights.
However, she’s just more effective at distance than Blanchfield and I think she is more effective by a considerable margin. MMA math is not something I care too much about but for comparison’s sake, Namajunas (in a three-round loss) outlanded Fiorot 59 to 53 at distance.
Over the course of 25 minutes, Blanchfield really needs to win on pacing alone if she cannot land takedowns. She has to get in Rose’s face, and throw a million strikes. Over five rounds, there’s potential for her to land enough that rounds appear competitive or Rose starts to slow down.
Metrics wise, I just think Rose is very likely to be landing the cleaner shots early, and she’s more defensively sound as well. I’d favor her outright to win a striking based matchup.
The grappling is tough because I love Blanchfield’s pacing there as well, and Namajunas has given up some takedowns in the past. She only defends at 59 percent.
Namajunas has given up six takedowns in her last two fights to Cortez and Ribas, and she gave up another five takedowns to Zhang and two to Esparza. If Blanchfield can land 3-4 takedowns, she can win this fight.
My issue is just in projecting that for Blanchfield because I’m really not sure that she can. She is not a great athlete and not very physical, and Rose is very competent as a grappler herself and in transition.
Blanchfield didn’t even attempt that many takedowns against Fiorot. Only three won’t cut it against Namajunas, most likely. If you told me she attempted another 15-20 takedowns, I’d be much more excited to play Blachfield. I would be pissed to back her if she attempts another three though.
Regardless, Blanchfield’s pacing is key here. Swarming on the feet, lots of takedown attempts round after round. Eventually Rose may tire and the amount of work Blanchfield puts in will be rewarded.
I generally think Blanchfield will fail on most takedown attempts though, so I am hesitant to back her overall.
I also think Namajunas can land takedowns. Blanchfield defends at 81 percent but Aldrich got her down twice and Fiorot got her down once. Rose averages 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and just took Cortez down five times. A couple TDs are possible, though I don’t think she would hold Blanchfield down for long periods of time.
I much prefer the style of Blanchfield overall, but I will lean toward Rose in this matchup. The fight starts on the feet and Rose is the more effective distance striker. She’s also very experienced and has gone the five-round distance many times, without a problem.
Perhaps Blanchfields striking pace and relentless grappling can eventually lead to some top position and some competitive rounds. I’m hopeful for her. But I’m not hopeful enough to pick her.
—
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember that this is also a five-round matchup, and therefore it’s another key piece to our puzzle this week.
Blanchfield is the slight favorite and priced at 8.4k, and she’s one of the top overall targets on the entire slate based on her fighting profile. In wins, Blanchfield has scored 126, 115, 95, 124, 98 and 81, with the latter coming in a three-round, striking based decision.
Now that we get five rounds, I feel quite confident that if Blanchfield were to win, she’d exceed value and contend for the optimal lineup. More likely, if she wins, it’s a smash.
And it’s essentially due to her pacing. Even in her most recent loss where she landed 0 takedowns in 25 minutes, she still scored 54 DK points with 130+ sig. strikes. I think she’s very unlikely to get her hand raised without any takedowns this week, and so her floor and ceiling are just that much higher in my mind.
Blanchfield is only +300 to win ITD and I highly doubt she wins by any other method than a decision. But that doesn’t really matter to me. Five rounds in a Blanchfield win should produce a ton of points, and for 8.4k, I would want her on my teams.
It really just comes down to whether you think she will win, or how much risk you want to take on.
Let’s say you like her – in that case, you can smash her. She will be popular but after her last loss, she may not be as highly owned compared to Rose as she would have been otherwise. It’s OK to just shove it all in on Blanchfield in that sense given her ceiling, but that would come with significant risk considering my analysis of the matchup (and the odds).
If you’re more of the opinion she’s going to lose, you could go in the opposite direction and again take a major underweight stance to the field. This makes sense to a degree, but it too is a major risk (given the odds and the upside).
Or you can just split your exposure and not worry too much about it. I don’t mind that strategy.
Personally, if I was only making a few lineups I’d probably come in light on Blanchfield. I’d rather just take the position that she’ll struggle to wrestle again and hope to gain some leverage against the field. If I was making 50 lineups though, I’d roster a considerable amount of Blanchfield, potentially still underweight but much closer to a real split between her and Rose.
She’s also an easy cash game target as the fight should go the distance.
Namajunas at 7.8k does not rate out as well, and I am less certain about her upside, but I’m not sure it matters.
In five rounds, you’re very likely going to want or need exposure to Namajunas if she wins. My only hesitation is that it’s a huge slate, with another five-round matchup, so there is some merit to being off this fight if Namajunas wins a decision.
She has scored 120, 105, 101, and 79 in some recent five-round victories. She also would have scored 50 in five rounds against Esparza if she had her hand raised. So it’s a mixed bag.
The concern here would be that Rose may not wrestle. She may not try urgently or may not have success. She’s also a slower paced striker generally, so 100 strikes and 0 takedowns is unfortunately in play.
That would only yield 70 or so DK points and would probably be the main path where she busts.
My guess though, is that Blanchfield fights at such a high pace, she’s going to force Rose to work. I think it will lead to a higher volume than normal for Rose in a win, and she probably ends up landing a takedown or two along the way as well. I don’t love her chances to win ITD at +515 but she has some KD equity.
At 7.8k, she’s a great mix in. You don’t have to split her exactly evenly with Blanchfield, but it’s a fine place to start. I will probably have more exposure to her than Blanchfield based on my analysis, but it’s not a strong enough opinion for me to smash her, especially given the lesser upside.
Overall, the mid-range pricing of this matchup will put the winner in real contention for the optimal, and that’s what we care about most. I will lean toward Rose but understand Blanchfield has the higher upside on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Namajunas by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
Fight Odds: Diniz -165, Lewis +142
Odds to Finish: -550
DraftKings Salaries: Diniz 8.6k, Lewis 7.6k
Weight Class: HW
Oh boy we have a big man banger this weekend between perennial knockout artist Derrick Lewis and kickboxer Jhonata Diniz.
Diniz has now won three straight, including his DWCS fight which only lasted a few minutes, but he’s most recently coming off a decision victory over Karl Williams. It was a bit of a surprise to see Williams strike with Diniz considering his pedigree, and Williams was unable to test Diniz on the mat until late.
That is very obviously going to be the biggest issue for Diniz moving forward. He was taken down by Austen Lane in the first round, and held down for the entire round. When he was eventually taken down by Williams, he was held down and beaten up.
Conversely on the feet, Diniz is very technical and capable with real power for the HW division. He’s 8-0 in pro MMA with seven victories by KO, and it will be dangerous for most to stand in front of him.
I actually wouldn’t consider Diniz the best athlete though, nor is he gonna throw crazy volume. In the HW division, there’s already so much variance that having a striking background isn’t necessarily a game breaker, but Diniz at least has a clear path to victory while standing and he will likely continue to have success with damage.
It was also great to see him physically go 15 minutes in his last fight. He didn’t slow down dramatically and I’d feel somewhat comfortable in his cardio moving forward. Wrestling will be a real issue though.
Diniz is taking on Derrick Lewis this weekend which is actually a really fun matchup.
I can’t remember the last time I picked Lewis and I probably won’t pick him here either, but he’s still winning fights, coming off another KO victory over Rodrigo Nascimento.
Lewis has big man power, always has and always will. He’s a huge guy and is aggressive at times, but he’s very reliant on that power.
Lewis isn’t great in any other capacity though. He both lands and absorbs 2.48 sig. strikes per minute, so he’s not a volume threat. He’s been knocked down a handful of times and he seems to get hurt often.
He’s also not a great wrestler and grappler and can be beaten on the mat.
With that said, one of Lewis’ decent attributes is his survivability on the mat especially. He’s so big that when he gets taken down, he’s tough to control. And if he gets on top of you, he will murder you with ground-and-pound.
That’s actually where I think his clearest path to victory is. Shockingly, he took Nascimento down last time out, which was his first td landed since he took Tuivasa down in 2022.
Lewis only lands 0.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t really technical in any capacity. I don’t think Diniz will necessarily just fall over, but it would be pretty smart for Lewis to try to wrestle a bit here.
Just watching Diniz get held down, I think Lewis could dominate if he gets any top position. Like, it could result in an immediate stoppage. It’s still unlikely he will ever get there though.
Even on the feet, Lewis can win. He has comparable power or more than Diniz, he just lacks the technicality.
I would favor Diniz over Lewis on the feet but not by a massive margin. He’s just more technical and consistent, and will have a better chance to land a clean shot. Lewis will be playing more into HW randomness which is fine.
I lean toward Diniz finding some shots early that hurt Lewis, but I’m not passionate about it.
—
On DraftKings, this is a great fight on paper but one that’s potentially risky as well.
It does have one of the best ITD lines on the slate overall at -550, and that’s the primary reason to target it. Diniz has early KO upside, as does Lewis.
The problem is that Diniz is super dependent on an early KO to be optimal at 8.6k. I don’t think a second or third round KO would get the job done, which is very scary.
Lewis can be hurt and KOd, but Diniz may fight a bit cautiously early while Lewis swings for the fences. I would also be more confident in Diniz finding an early kill shot if he had size on Lewis, but they will be similarly sized.
Diniz is still a good tournament option and has a strong ceiling, and he’s -120 to win ITD. I just want to note that he’s extremely boom or bust and I do think there’s a chance this fight hits the second round. It makes me nervous enough to not consider him a primary target to be honest but he’s a solid secondary/upside play regardless.
Lewis at 7.6k may actually interest me more.
May is the key word but he would be a direct pivot off both five-round dogs in Albazi and Namajunas, and he too has early KO upside and a big ceiling if he can grapple. Lewis is +170 to win ITD and I’m more optimistic that Lewis would end up optimal in a win than Diniz.
It’s still a very risky fight. Lewis likely won’t be producing any real points per minute and he may never attempt a takedown. He’s extremely dependent on a finish.
I just don’t think he’ll be extremely popular given the matchup, and I think there’s sneaky grappling upside, plus the price point off the five-rounders. It’s enough for me to mix him in a bit and consider him a fine/upside target in tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Diniz by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Odds: Machado -144, Ribeiro +125
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Machado 8.4k, Ribeiro 7.7k
Weight Class: 205
This is a low-level light heavyweight matchup if I’ve ever seen one – Caio Machado and Brendson Ribeiro share a combined 0-4 record in the UFC and will square off on Saturday.
Machado is 8-3-1, earning four wins by knockout and two by submission, with most of those wins coming from the BFL promotion, a lower-level Canadian organization. He also won by decision on DWCS in 2023.
Since making his debut, Machado has lost decisions to both Mick Parkin and Don’Tale Mayes, a relatively low level of competition. Parkin took him down a few times and controlled him, though Machado got the better of Parkin on the feet. Mayes knocked him down early but Machado fought more competitively late.
That’s honestly the most positive aspect I can say about Machado thus far. Most of his wins prior to DWCS had been very quick finishes. But his DWCS win, and his two UFC losses have all gone the distance, which is valuable experience to a degree.
And he was credited with 121 significant strikes in that DWCS fight, and he’s landed 76 sig. strikes in each of his two UFC losses. I believe the DWCS performance was an outlier but it’s still adequate volume overall.
Machado is also a black belt in BJJ but I don’t think his grappling is particularly good. I’ve seen him get on top of opponents who had no business being in the cage, and he was able to transition to mount and lock up an armbar.
Against terrible competition, Machado’s grappling will be good enough. Parkin was able to get him down without too much adversity but Machado did reverse position a couple of times. I think he’s a fine grappler but I don’t think his wrestling is super competent and I worry about him being held down on his back.
On the feet, he’s mediocre. He’s somewhat aggressive but I wouldn’t say he has crazy power. His defense looks a bit suspect to me.
I just consider Machado a low level guy, someone who could win due to variance or beat up on bad competition. A good athlete or physical opponent should get past him with relative ease.
Machado is actually moving down from HW to LHW, though he shouldn’t be oversized and Ribeiro will actually hold a few inches in reach over Machado.
I was not high on Riberio entering the UFC, though some were in his initial matchup against Zhang Mingyang. Ribeiro had landed some clean shots at distance in the first minute before Mingyang connected and knocked him out cold.
It wasn’t far off from what we’d seen on the regional scene, and I had categorized Ribeiro as a kill or be killed fighter.
He then went the distance against Magomed Gadzhiyasulov but the final two rounds were pretty concerning. Ribeiro got off to a decent start and landed three takedowns in round one, but he got tired, and was then taken down and held down for 8.5 of the final 10 minutes of the contest.
Ribeiro is now 15-7 professionally, and he’s earned nine wins by KO and six by submission. If you’re keeping track, that means he’s won zero fights by decision. He’s also been KOd three times and submitted twice.
He’s a fine thai striker, and capable of damaging his opponent, but it’s hard to trust in his volume or durability or cardio.
Ribeiro can also wrestle, but many of his wins have come against a low level of competition. Given the right circumstance, Riberio can advance position and lock up a submission, with a base brown belt in jiu-jitsu.
However, we’ve seen him taken down, both on the regional scene and in the UFC. I’ve seen him reversed. And he doesn’t look particularly good from his back. I’ve seen him give up position and give up his back to stand up.
He was also knocked unconscious from ground-and-pound in 2022, in a fight that he was winning prior.
Now I’m highly skeptical of his cardio against anyone who pushes him as well, which relates back to his lack of decision wins.
At this point, I really only have some faith in Ribeiro during the early minutes, where he’ll very likely need to find a finish. If he can’t secure it, I don’t trust in his offensive production, and I especially don’t trust in his durability.
This matchup isn’t a great one from a talent perspective and I actually think Ribeiro can compete with Machado just fine while he has the gas.
Ribeiro may even be the more dangerous striker, and the more active wrestler. I think he could hurt Machado early and I think he can land takedowns. I am ultimately skeptical that he will find a finish though.
And having seen him gas out early and lay on his back for the final two rounds, I can’t pick Ribeiro to win. Machado is at least competent on the feet, with a solid BJJ base if he happens to get taken down early.
I trust Machado more in an extended fight and trust him more per minute to produce offense. He will have an opportunity to finish the fight as well just given Ribeiro’s questionable cardio, defense and durability.
—
On DraftKings, this is certainly a viable fight to target in tournaments.
I should note that while the ITD line is -200, that’s actually a pretty poor mark for a LHW matchup of this character. Both fighters are highly flawed, and in some other matchups like it we’d see an ITD line at -500 or greater.
Instead, this fight is set at -155 to go Over 1.5 rounds which makes me highly nervous. I do not expect many points per minute, and I think the bulk of the scoring equity will come from a finish.
Both sides can wrestle too though, which is why at mid-range prices, I still have some interest.
Machado is priced at 8.5k and I like him in theory for his finishing upside. He’s +145 to win ITD against an opponent with serious durability issues and cardio issues.
My primary hesitation is that Machado has only attempted one takedown in his last 45 minutes of cage time. Without the wrestling aspect, we’re just relying on Machado to win by KO in the early rounds, which would firmly put him into the boom or bust category.
Added wrestling would give him a path to a mid or late round finish that exceeds value as well. And after watching Ribeiro have issues on his back, that’s what I’d prefer.
Overall, there’s just no reason to feel confident here, but I do think Machado is a worthy mix-in in tournaments. He could be used to fighting bigger men at HW and once he gets past the initial surge from Ribeiro, I could see Machado taking over.
There’s enough finishing equity with Machado to make him a viable tournament target at 8.5k and potentially even a viable candidate to be over the field percentage. It is still a major risk and he’s a fighter with a clear bust profile as well in an extended fight.
Ribeiro at 7.7k is intriguing just because I feel he’s more dependent on an early finish.
He is +200 to win ITD and I don’t think he’ll be very popular coming off two losses, and priced next to some other strong options in this upper 7k range.
So in that, he makes for an intriguing pivot, and he also may carry leverage against Machado who I assume the public will favor.
I don’t love Ribeiro, and I wouldn’t get carried away in this spot. I’m not aiming to take a real stand against the field. But Ribeiro has only won ITD in his career and Machado has some defensive issues himself. An early finish could present itself and I think that makes Ribeiro a viable secondary/upside target at the price point.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Machado by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Fight Odds: Barriault -205, Stoltzfus +175
Odds to Finish: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Barriault 8.9k, Stoltzfus 7.3k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a blue collar matchup here in the middleweight division between Marc-Andre Barriault and Dustin Stoltzfus. Both guys are coming off first round knockout losses and are in need of a win.
Barriault is a tough Canadian. Barriault lands 6.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.67 in return. He is a pressure striker who likes to walk down his opponents, dirty box in the clinch, and get in their face. He has good cardio with a good pace. He can wear down opponents big time and start to overwhelm them.
I don’t consider Barriault a super slick or gifted striker, but he is decent and he definitely knows that his cardio is his main weapon. I also consider Barriault generally durable. He was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani and most recently Joe Pyfer in his last matchup. However, those are some big hitters and I generally consider Barriault to have decent durability. I still don’t like when guys rack up multiple knockout losses though.
Barriault is an okay grappler, but he likes to clinch and dirty box more than actually land takedowns. He lands 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 1.5 takedowns per fight. So you can’t expect him to really land many takedowns. Barriault seems like a guy who is more likely to land takedowns if his opponents get tired more than anything.
Barriault is a competent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at a decent 67 percent and scrambles up to his feet decently. Anthony Hernandez had his way with him on the mat but there is no shame in that.
Barriault will be taking on Dustin Stoltzfus. Stoltzfus isn’t really good, and he is 2-5 in the UFC. I would label him as a grappler, but he isn’t that great of one. I also have concerns with his lack of athleticism. He did land four takedowns against Punahele Soriano though and submitted him in round two, so that was a decent performance.
As a striker, Stoltzfus is just not that great. He lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.40 in return. He defends strikes at 47 percent. He can kind of go through the motions. However, he isn’t particularly skilled or dangerous. I just don’t think he is very good on the feet. He seems tough but he was knocked out by Abus Magomedov and Brunno Ferreira in round one. Those guys are dangerous so I don’t consider them awful knockout losses but again as mentioned above, I don’t like when guys rack up multiple knockout losses.
As a grappler, Stoltzfus is okay. He comes from a submission grappling background and is mildly to moderately competent on the mat. He lands 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and can kind of float on top and can submit weak grapplers on the mat. I still don’t think his takedowns are great or explosive though. He was able to take down Gerald Meerschaert who doesn’t even bother defending takedowns. He then took down Dwight Grant and kind of beat him up on the mat. Grant doesn’t have good TDD on chained attempts though and Grant has a terrible bottom game.
He also outgrappled Soriano. Stoltzfus is basically just a decent grappler in general and it is a path to victory for him against some of the middleweight roster.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Barriault is the more physical, consistent, and capable striker. I think if these guys strike, they both will land but Barriault will probably land a bit more often and the harder shots. I doubt Stoltzfus has the power to put Barriault out often but I do think Barriault could knock Stoltzfus out.
I think for Stoltzfus to win, he will have to mix in takedowns. I actually do think he is capable of landing some takedowns here. We have also seen Barriault struggle a bit on the mat before at times and a submission for Stoltzfus doesn’t seem outrageous. So I am not completely ruling out Stoltzfus’ chances to win. It wouldn’t be shocking and it does seem possible.
I still don’t totally trust Stoltzfus to outgrapple Barriault for entire rounds though. My guess is Stoltzfus can maybe land a takedown with some top time here and there, but ultimately Barriault has the gas tank and defensive grappling to give himself enough striking time to win the fight.
This is decently competitive though and both guys have paths to victory. Overall though, I will pick Barriault to win because he will likely land more damaging strikes.
—
On DraftKings, I think this is one of my favorite fights that may fly under the radar.
In Barriault’s last four losses, he’s been KOd twice in RD 1, he’s been taken down eight times and submitted, and then he lost a decision where he yielded 140 sig. strikes. In Stoltzfus’ last four losses, he’s been KOd twice in RD 1, and submitted twice in RD 3.
The fight is set at -110 to go the distance with the Over on 2.5 Rounds set at -140, but I lean toward there being some value on the Under.
I am honestly not sure either fighter has the durability to take much damage. I respect the guys who both have lost to, but Barriault generally pushes a pace and forces exchanges. I think there’s a decent chance he either lands on Stoltzfus and hurts him, or Stoltzfus starts to have wrestling success. Or maybe Stoltzfus can hurt Barriault as well.
There are just a lot of options for a finish, which I like.
Barriault is priced up to 8.9k and will still have a boom or bust profile. He’s pretty tough to prioritize over the grapplers priced above him, but I think coming off another loss, he won’t be extremely highly owned.
I do like him in this range. Barriault is somewhat powerful and can throw at a high rate. If he’s defending takedowns and boxing with Stoltzfus, I could see a knockout come. And it wouldn’t even need to be in round one necessarily as a bunch of strikes leading up to a round two KO could still produce a big score.
So at 8.9k, I like Barriault a bit. I hope he’s sneaky and unowned because I will like him more. He still may bust in an extended fight without a finish, but he’s +185 to win ITD and I’m willing to buy his KO upside as a pivot in this top tier.
I also like Stoltzfus at 7.3k and honestly I think he’s pretty live to win this fight.
Even though I consider Barriault to be the better and harder puncher, the facts are that he’s been getting hit a ton, and he’s been knocked out cold twice. It wouldn’t be that crazy if Stoltzfus hurt him.
And Stoltzfus just outwrestled and submitted Puna Soriano not that long ago. He’s not a great wrestler but he’s competent and it is at least a path to victory.
On DK, it’s a path that I think would score well too as he’d likely need a few takedowns, lots of control and/or a submission. He’s only +300 to win ITD but I think he has finishing upside in this matchup.
I also don’t expect Stoltzfus to be owned much at all, coming off a highlight reel KO loss. He is 7.3k and probably my favorite cheap play on this slate, and someone I’d like to be overweight on compared to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barriault by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
Fight Odds: Malott -267, Giles +220
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Malott 9.2k, Giles 7k
Weight Class: 170
One of Canada’s top prospects, Mike Malott will be looking to rebound from his first UFC loss to Neil Magny in January, as he gets set to square off with Trevin Giles this weekend.
Malott is 10-2-1 professionally at age 32, and he’s earned four wins by knockout and six by submission.
His early UFC/DWCS run was similar to his regional run – quick finishes, both on the feet and on the mat. Some come from wrestling, some from transitional subs like the guillotine. And then he’s knocked down a couple of his opponents as well.
To be fair, his early run was largely against awful competition. Mickey Gall, Yohan Lainesse and Adam Fugitt are about as bad as it gets, so it wasn’t shocking that he eventually failed when he took a step up in competition.
But he looked good against Magny for the first 12 minutes. He landed takedowns in rounds two and three, and controlled Magny for more than six minutes. He also won the first round purely on the feet.
Magny eventually reversed him late in the third round, and as Malott went for a leg attack, Magny was able to hold position and get mount. From there, he just pounded on Malott until the ref stepped in.
It was a crazy come back and one that definitely scares me because Malott has still never won a decision. Is he capable of it? Yes. Do I think his cardio is fantastic after watching that last fight? No.
Currently, I view Malott as a semi-effective fighter early on. He’s got some power and throws heavy kicks, but he’s not a high-volume striker and that won’t be his primary method to winning rounds.
He’s also a strong wrestler and grappler, and that’s where I think he can have the most success. His wrestling is fine but I wouldn’t call it elite. Still he has a path to takedowns, and on top, he can transition, take the back, and hunt for transitional subs.
The longer the fight goes, the more I would worry about Malott, and without top control, there’s still potential for rounds to be competitive.
He’s getting a pretty soft matchup again versus Trevin Giles, who was just knocked out by Carlos Prates and submitted quickly by Gabriel Bonfim in the fight prior.
Giles is a cop, and hasn’t been a full-time fighter for the majority of his career. He’s earned 7-6 record while mostly being thrown to the wolves, which is a fine, but I’ve never been a fan of his style.
Mostly, Giles just doesn’t produce a whole lot of offense. He’s landing 3.27 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.22 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate.
He also lands 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 71 percent.
Giles just likes to slow the pace down in fights. The majority of his wins are ugly, slow, competitive decisions where he outlasts his opponent.
Look no further than his last win against Preston Parsons where Giles and Parsons each landed 34 sig. strikes, and Parsons landed an additional three takedowns. Giles was able to neutralize Parsons enough to give the judges headaches and ultimately take the split decision.
I don’t really know what else to say about him. His boxing is fine. He has some power, but his durability isn’t the best.
He’s been knocked down four times in the UFC, and he’s been knocked out by Prates, Du Plessis and Morales in three of his last four losses. The other loss was a one-minute guillotine by Bonfim.
This level of competition is really strong, but Giles just isn’t durable and can be washed on the feet and on the mat.
Sometimes he survives though, and he’s fine in slowing the pace down. He can wrestle a bit and he can survive on the mat. But Parsons had him in deep chokes too. He’s just vulnerable.
I clearly think his best chance to beat Malott is by extending the fight. Though with that said, Giles could potentially compete on the feet too if the pace is slow.
I just know that Giles has gone the distance many times and won decisions, and Malott has not. Malott is the type to jump on guillotines and if he gets tired and starts giving up position like he did against Magny, Giles can lay on top of him and win rounds.
I still think Malott is a more effective striker early and has more knockout upside. He also should be able to land some takedowns, which could result in a dominant position and a submission.
If Malott is not on top though, I won’t be fully trusting of him. And I’m not sure he can carry that wrestling for three rounds so if he doesn’t get on top and win by sub, he may get tired.
Giles just doesn’t have a great style to produce offense or defend, so I’m not going to pick him to win. But he does have a path if he can survive Malott’s early attack.
—
On DraftKings, Malott is actually the most expensive fighter on the slate at 9.2k.
It’s as cheap as we’ve seen the top fighter in quite some time, so he’s very affordable in that sense. Also coming off that loss to Magny, I don’t know how willing the public will be to play him.
He’s only -265 to win and -140 to win ITD, which is solid but nothing like the -7xx we’ve seen from fighters in the top end recently.
And Malott is boom or bust. A slow first round and the fight extends, and he’s probably not making value. Wrestling could be the key, but otherwise you’re banking on a random first-round KO.
I like Malott in the sense that I think he can win ITD. I think he could wrestle early and jump on a guillotine. I’m still not sure he produces an optimal score though. Malott has put up 105, 104 and 112 in his three UFC wins. It’s a good showing but again reliant on early wins.
He has enough upside to target moderately if you have the salary available and I would like some exposure, but I’m not going to force him in as there are plenty of options throughout the slate, and other strong grapplers in this top end.
Giles doesn’t really interest me at 7k.
He has a path to win but I doubt he’s scoring many points per minute. And he’s likely to be held down for a period of time.
Giles is +385 to win ITD which isn’t horrible but there are so many live dogs on this slate. I’m going to focus on ones with real win equity and a high ceiling, which I don’t fully think Giles has.
He’ll be low owned and has some leverage viability as a sprinkle/punt, but I’ll likely avoid Giles this weekend.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Malott by Arm-Triangle, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
Fight Odds: Zahabi -124, Munhoz +108
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Munhoz 8.3k, Zahabi 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a classic neutralizer vs volume fighter here in Aiemann Zahabi vs Pedro Munhoz.
Zahabi is very much the neutralizer in this fight. He is coming off the biggest win of his career and a huge upset decision win over Javid Basharat in his last fight. He outstruck Basharat and outlanded him 75-67 in significant strikes and outlanded Basharat 51-33 in head strikes.
Zahabi lands 3.43 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.61 in return. Those aren’t good metrics but Zahabi does have some defensive skills and defends strikes at a solid 71 percent. He is capable of just competing with his opponents by minimizing their offense. He is decently technical, and has shown some occasional power and has a couple of knockout wins in the UFC.
I still just personally dislike the style of Zahabi. Yes, he is technical and yes, he is fine defensively. However, 3.43 significant strikes per minute is just not enough strikes to comfortably and cleanly win decisions. I just wish he would pick up the offense a little more. He did land 75 significant strikes against Basharat which was his career high and a fine performance. However, his highest before that was 54 which isn’t great.
Zahabi is also not an effective offensive wrestler and only lands 0.20 takedowns per 15 minutes. So he is basically limited to winning fights by a decision where he likely doesn’t land a ton of strikes or a knockdown, as he really isn’t extremely powerful either. Zahabi has shown good defensive wrestling though and defends takedowns at 79 percent.
Zahabi is just who he is. He is rarely going to run away with fights because his offense is simply not there. However, he is very much UFC level and capable of winning fights because he is a technically skilled fighter and is sound defensively.
Zahabi will be taking on Pedro Munhoz who has lost four of his last five fights. Munhoz is a decently well-rounded fighter and a very tough guy. He is extremely durable and has never been finished in 29 pro fights.
I don’t think Munhoz is particularly good anywhere though and he is too hittable for my liking. He lands 5.32 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.23 in return. I like that Munhoz lands a lot of strikes but absorbing 6 significant strikes per fight is too many.
Munhoz’s boxing is just not great and he gets hit to the head too cleanly and often. Cruz, Aldo, and even Frankie Edgar just exposed his head strike / boxing defense and teed off on him. I do think Munhoz has good calf kicks though. It is by far the best aspect of his game. However, Munhoz still got dominated in his last fight by Kyler Phillips. It was a bad look.
Munhoz is a competent grappler, but he thrives more as a defensive grappler rather than an offensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 82 percent and is seriously hard to take down. He only lands 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes though and only lands takedowns at 18 percent. Munhoz is just not a great offensive wrestler.
Munhoz is still a tough guy though and well-rounded. He has also been fighting the best in the world for years so anytime he gets a step down in competition he is live to give a veteran lesson like he did to Chris Gutierrez in April of last year.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a close one. I think these guys will strike because both guys aren’t great offensively, but both have good TDD. Munhoz will also threaten for his guillotine choke when taken down, which is one of the best in the division.
On the feet, I think Munhoz is the more urgent striker and has good calf kicks, and could very well just win this fight by being the busier fighter. This is also a big step down for Munhoz. His last six losses were Sterling, Edgar, Aldo, Cruz, Vera, and Phillips. Zahabi is a much more manageable matchup for Munhoz and it is very possible that Munhoz overperforms the market’s expectations for that reason alone.
However, Zahabi is the superior defensive fighter and is fully capable of just winning the striking exchanges because of that. Furthermore, I could see Zahabi landing more strikes here than usual because Munhoz will likely come in aggressively, and Zahabi generally throws more when he is given opportunities to counter.
Munhoz is just so durable though and Zahabi is likely going to have to win a striking based decision when he isn’t even an urgent striker. So Zahabi’s ceiling is likely limited to winning a close striking decision.
This is truly just a very close fight. I have been picking neutralizers lately, but I will go with the veteran in Munhoz here because he will likely be the more urgent fighter. This is a close one though and the line seems reasonable.
—
On DraftKings, I struggle to prioritize this matchup just based on Zahabi’s fighting style.
He’s a neutralizer, and he will disengage. He doesn’t actively wrestle either, so he’s largely dependent on early KOs. Zahabi has earned a couple of them so that outcome is possible, but Munhoz is one of the most durable fighters in the sport statistically as he’s eaten a million shots but never suffered a knockdown.
Eventually, his time will come though.
And I suppose it could be here against an opponent like Zahabi who is more technically sound and probably will be able to land some clean strikes. It’s just an impossible projection really.
Zahabi is only +750 to win ITD in a fight that’s -400 to go the distance, so at 7.9k, I am not excited to play him.
I do think Munhoz will bring a pace and potentially force more exchanges than usual for Zahabi, but he just doesn’t have many ways to score. I don’t think he can wrestle with any success either.
Zahabi is actually a value on DK at 7.9k compared to his -124 betting line, but I just don’t see a clear path to a ceiling outside of a random early KO. I have actually backed him in this position before as a contrarian target, which he probably will be again, but that was against Aoriqileng who is not durable.
In this matchup, I suppose you could target some Zahabi for the value/contrarian angle but he’s extremely boom or bust and probably won’t find his way onto many of my rosters.
Munhoz at 8.3k is honestly more interesting just because he has more upside in his profile.
He strikes at a higher rate. Zahabi was KOd by Ricardo Ramos in the UFC already. And Munhoz has a guillotine choke that could submit anyone, though it’s still an unlikely outcome.
Munhoz is +375 to win ITD which is still poor for the price, but shows a touch of upside I guess.
This just isn’t the best matchup for it as Zahabi won’t put himself in compromising positions and he’s still a quality enough grappler on paper. I’m pretty worried about Zahabi slowing the fight down on both sides.
Munhoz has similar contrarian appeal at 8.3k now that he’s overpriced, and he has some big scores in the past. It’s not the craziest click in the world but I wouldn’t roster him at a high percentage and I think it’s a reasonable fight to X out if you’re only making a few lineups in larger fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zahabi by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ariane da Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Fight Odds: Jasudavicius -225, da Silva +189
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Jasudavicius 9k, da Silva 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have been extremely impressed with Jasmine Jasudavicius lately and I am excited to see her square off against Ariane da Silva (formerly Lipski) this weekend.
Jasmine looked really good in her win against Miranda Maverick, among others. She wrestled and struck hard and showed some really good cardio in an upset win. I also thought Jasmine looked decent with her wrestling game in her loss against Tracy Cortez. She then dominated Priscila Cachoeira and showed she can wreck weak grapplers on the mat. Most recently, she dominated Fatima Kline in a decision by outwrestling her.
Jasmine is mostly a grappler and more specifically a wrestler. She likes to clinch her opponents up with a body lock, get the takedown and go to work in top position. I have also seen her shoot good double legs as well. Her top game is pretty heavy, and I do like her ground and pound. She will posture up and throw some hard shots.
Jasmine lands 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I consider her takedowns decent. She is tenacious and her pace and physicality assists her takedowns in general. I also have liked the tdd of Jasmine and she defends takedowns at 75 percent, and works up to her feet well. She is fantastic at reversing opinions and turning her opponents’ offensive wrestling into her own top positional opportunities.
Although Jasmine is long, she doesn’t use her length to control range on the feet. She is not technical on the feet at all. She lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.85. She is a bit of a punching bag. I actually think Jasmine’s striking has looked better lately though. It is moreso her pace and pressure than her striking lately. She just walks forward and backs her opponents up well.
I still think Jasmine has flaws though. She isn’t technical at all on the feet and is super hittable. However, she is tenacious and pressures hard. She also seems extremely tough and won’t back down or let a big shot deter her. She will look to land offense and she is big as well. I think she can continue to grind out wins with takedowns, control, and pace at this level. Finishes will likely come against bad competition as well.
Jasmine will be taking on Ariane da Silva. Silva excels mostly as a power pocket puncher. She definitely has some quick hands and hits harder than most women from a strike per strike basis. So she can be dangerous.
Silva lands 4.10 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.96 in return. I don’t really trust her to win clear rounds on the feet with volume, and she is mostly dependent on just creating big moments and exchanges with her fast and powerful hands in the pocket. She is impactful on the feet though and can hurt women and win rounds with effective striking. I still think she is a bit sloppy though and I don’t totally love her on the feet.
Silva isn’t a great grappler. She can hold position on top against low-level opposition, but I don’t really expect her to take and hold many people down. She only lands 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and she isn’t a great top position player.
Silva is a major liability off her back. She can be held down and controlled for entire rounds. She can allow advances of position, get hammered with ground and pound, or get submitted. I am petrified for Silva anytime she gets taken down to be honest. She has been finished on the mat by Montana de La Rosa and Antonia Shevchenko. It wasn’t random either, it was absolute dominance. So a takedown for any of Silva’s opponents could be a lost round or fight ending event.
Silva has shown improved TDD though. She now defends takedowns at 71 percent. She was getting taken down so easily early in her career. However, she defended all seven takedowns against Gatto and all 12 against Aldrich. She also shut down two takedowns against Casey O’Neil. Those girls aren’t great wrestlers, but the fact that Silva defended 21 straight takedowns does suggest improvement.
However, Silva surrendered five takedowns on six attempts against Karine Silva in her last fight. She got controlled on the mat and it kind of reminded us that she still does have some defensive wrestling issues.
That is why I have to go with Jasmine in this fight. We have just seen Silva lose to so many wrestlers before and Jasmine is arguably the best and most physical wrestler that Silva has faced. I have to think that if Jasmine is just moderately tenacious with takedowns like she always is, she will probably land 2-3 takedowns which should be enough to win the fight. Jasmine can really go to work here in top position. Her top game is good and Silva is a fish off her back.
Silva is the more dangerous and skilled striker on paper though. When this is standing, Silva is likely at the advantage and certainly more likely to land a random KO shot. I do think Silva can stop some takedowns here and have some moments. So it wouldn’t be shocking to see her win. I still think Jasmine is tough though and can likely move forward and eat the shots, and eventually use the pressure into takedowns. A takedown can legitimately turn into a finish or 10-8 round for Jasmin so the upside for her is enormous, and I have to pick Jasmin to win because of grappling upside alone.
—
On DraftKings, I definitely have interest in Jasudavicius due to her grappling potential.
I don’t consider her an elite takedown artist, but she’s been pretty consistent to land 2-3 takedowns per fight and on top, she throws a lot of strikes. She famously scored 169 DK points against Priscila Cachoeira this year with a third-round submission, because she was credited with a whopping 200+ non-significant strikes while on top.
Her other wins have scored 91, 85, 105, and 86, so it is a mixed bag. There isn’t a guarantee of a smash here, largely because she is not guaranteed to win ITD at +280, nor will she land 5+ takedowns very often.
In this particular matchup, I have mixed opinions because Silva has improved and has honestly screwed me a couple times when I have bet against her. She has also been finished in three of her past four losses which is ugly for this division, and is coming off a loss where she gave up five takedowns and 7.5 minutes of control.
Those aspects give Jasudavicius a very legit ceiling in the matchup. I wouldn’t exactly call it safe and there are others in this price range who also have upside, but if Jasudavicius can get on top early, she may pour down ground strikes and rack up points.
I like Jasudavicius a lot in general and I am very willing to play her at 9k this week. I also think it’s fine if there are others you prefer ahead of her in this range.
Silva at 7.2k doesn’t interest me a whole lot, but the fight is binary to a degree which is her main benefit.
Silva should be the clearly superior striker, and she is an effective striker with some KO power. She’s also been an opportunistic grappler and has locked up some submissions in the UFC.
With that said, there’s a good chance Silva gets held down for many minutes, which would kill off her upside. She’s also +500 to win ITD which is very poor.
Even if she survives on the ground and edges out a couple of rounds on the feet, I wouldn’t expect that to be enough at 7k to fully clear the optimal lineup. If you must target a fighter this cheap, at least Silva has a path to victory.
I probably will avoid Silva for the most part on DK this week personally, and focus on underdogs with higher upside and a clearer path to a ceiling performance.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jasudavicius by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry
Fight Odds: Jourdain -140, Henry +122
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Jourdain 8.2k, Henry 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential banger here as Victor Henry and Charles Jourdain will square off on Saturday night. Henry always brings a crazy pace, and I think this has potential for fight of the night.
Henry thrives as a volume striker. He lands 8.34 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.62 in return. Henry memorably landed 181 significant strikes in his UFC debut against Raoni Barcelos. He also attempted 397 total strikes which has to be bordering some type of record for a three-round fight. It was a great debut and a bit unexpected by some.
I think that is what you can expect from Henry on the feet and what he showed on the regionals and in other UFC matchups. He is a high output striker on the feet and he is going to bring a high pace. He likes to mix it up standing and has some consistent leg kicks as well.
Henry still is a bit hittable though and he absorbed over 100 significant strikes himself in that matchup vs Barcelos. He also got hit plenty on the regionals and was outslicked by Raphael Assuncao. However, Henry has never been knocked out in 35 professional fights and seems to have good durability. He also rolls with punches well and that has to be one of the reasons why he has never been finished. You really saw him rolling with shots in the Barcelos fight.
Henry does have some submission wins in his career and I consider him a competent grappler in general. He comes from that Josh Barnett catch wrestling camp so it makes sense that he is battle tested on the mat. However, his defensive wrestling has been exposed in the past. He was taken down and held down somewhat easily in his fight against Denis Lavrentyev. Henry was way too willing to play guard in that matchup. He also had some grappling issues against Assuncao. He still defends takedowns at 83 percent though, and I do consider him a decent defensive wrestler.
Henry will be taking on Charles Jourdain. Jourdain is pretty much just a striker. Jourdain lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.35 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent. Those are decent ratios and he pushes a very high pace. Jourdain also has some power and has landed two knockouts and six knockdowns in his UFC career.
I simply consider Jourdain a competent UFC level striker. He isn’t great or all that good even. However, he is decent and is certainly proven in this promotion. I do think he has looked a bit worse lately though. He lost his last two fights against Sean Woodson and Jean Silva and underperformed my expectations in both matchups.
Jourdain doesn’t wrestle offensively and only lands 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes Defensively, he is not perfect as a grappler either. He defends takedowns at 48 percent, which is awful, and surrendered 5 takedowns, 4 takedowns, and 5 takedowns against Andre Fili, Desmond Green, and Nathaniel Wood, respectively. He also surrendered takedowns to Burgos and got his back taken for a bit.
I will say though, Jourdain does scramble up decently once he is taken down. Fili and Green only secured about 2 minutes of top control on Jourdain.
However, Jourdain is susceptible to putting himself in transitional choke attempts where he could get his neck strangled by giving up his back. Julian Erosa choked Jourdain out with a D’Arce choke on a transition when Jourdain scrambled up and I definitely think openings will be there for other good grapplers as well. Jourdain did show he was submission capable against Ricardo Ramos though and actually submitted Ramos with a guillotine which was impressive.
Jourdain also seems pretty durable to me. He has had 24 pro fights and (34 overall fights if you include amateurs) has only been knocked out once before which was his most recent matchup against Jean Silva, who is a heavy hitter.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t really trust the offensive wrestling of either guy so my guess is that the winner of the striking exchanges will win this fight.
I honestly like Henry a bit in this matchup. I am not super confident as this could potentially be a competitive striking fight, is likely to go to the scorecards, and it is in Jourdain’s homeland of Canada. So Jourdain very well may get favorable treatment on the scorecards and win a close or undeserved decision.
However, Henry just has shown a higher volume ceiling than Jourdain. Henry has landed 181 and 154 significant strikes in his two decision wins. He also landed 109 significant strikes in a third-round finish win. His only other fight was against Assuncao which he lost and only landed 55 significant strikes. However, Henry was generally neutralized and outgrappled in that matchup against Assuncao in a way that Jourdain is not really capable of replicating.
Jourdain does have some decent volume as well but has only broken the 100 significant strike mark 3 times in 14 UFC fights. I just like the consistent striking volume of Henry more.
Henry will probably get a predominantly striking oriented fight here, and I simply think he has a volume advantage. He is also just SO durable and I doubt Jourdain will finish him.
I still think Jourdan can win for the reasons mentioned above. Henry is still hittable so surely Jourdain will land here and potentially make this a competitive fight. Jourdain also has decent cardio and may not wilt to the pace that Henry brings. He is also a couple of inches taller than Henry. The fight being in Canada is also an X-factor.
However, if someone just dominates on the significant strike battle, I really think it is going to be Henry so I think Henry has an overall higher ceiling in this matchup so I will pick him to win.
—
On DraftKings, this is one of my favorite real-life fights that may not be a necessity from a fantasy standpoint.
From the simplest context, we’re likely to get a decision here as both sides are durable, and the fight is lined at -250 to go the distance.
Neither side wrestles, and we can’t project many grappling exchanges overall. So the winner ultimately is likely to go three rounds and land a bunch of strikes. Despite a high ceiling on both sides from a volume standpoint, 120 sig. strikes in 15 minutes would only yield 78 points on DK.
Jourdain is priced at 8.2k and Henry is priced at 8k, and it feels like the most likely outcome is that neither reaches a fantasy ceiling in a win.
Jourdain is actually getting some love in the betting markets where he’s now -140, so he’s a slight value at this price. I don’t love him personally, and if this is going to mean a higher ownership publicly, I will likely just avoid Jourdain.
Henry is super durable historically and I don’t consider him at a real wrestling disadvantage either. Jourdain is only +385 to win ITD. Sure Jourdain could get a win in front of his home crowd but without a finish, I just don’t love his chances of reaching the optimal.
Henry is actually my preferred side at 8k, and he’s a tad sneaky though it’s hard to recommend much exposure.
He’s also +385 to win ITD and probably won’t grapple. I will say that despite Jourdain’s historic durability, he’s actually been knocked down four times, and is finally coming off a TKO loss.
So of the two, I actually think Henry is more likely to get a random KD, and he has a volume ceiling of 150+ that Jourdain likely cannot reach.
I’m not projecting this to happen, but if Henry were to reach 150 sig. strikes, that’s suddenly a 90-point score + any extracurriculars. So I feel there’s slightly more upside with him, at a cheaper price, and perhaps he’s viable as a low-end secondary or contrarian target in this mid-range.
This should be a fun one but it won’t be a matchup that I’m prioritizing overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Henry by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal
Fight Odds: Zalal -309, Shore +250
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Zalal 9.1k, Shore 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty good preliminary matchup here as we have two quality fighters in Youseff Zalal and Jack Shore squaring off.
Zalal is actually a skilled fighter who is well-rounded in all areas. He is a decent technical striker. He lands 2.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.73 in return, and defends strikes at a fantastic 66 percent. He has some decent boxing and calf kicks. I actually quite like his calf kicks. He is also extremely durable, and I have never even really seen him hurt before. He even survived Ilia Topuria quite comfortably which is a fight that has obviously aged well.
Zalal can also grapple a bit. He lands 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a capable submission grappler. He submitted Jarno Errens in his last matchup quite easily. He also submitted Quarantillo on the mat which was impressive. That was a really good performance by Zalal. He also grappled competitively with Ilia Topuria down the stretch in their fight as well.
I also consider Zalal a decent defensive grappler as well. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and can be taken down here and there, but he is still competent and can reverse position and scramble. Zalal also just has good cardio and can fight 15 minutes with no issue.
The issue with Zalal is that his offense is not always there. 2.87 significant strikes is not a lot of output and he is basically a neutralizer who just tries to land a little more than his opponent.
I still do think Zalal is a decent fighter who is capable of exposing fighters with holes as he is very tough, has good cardio, and can fight in all areas.
Zalal will be taking on Jack Shore. Shore has lost two of his last three fights so he is in a bit of a rut. He was most recently finished via leg kicks to Joanderson Brito.
I have generally been a fan of Jack Shore. He is a solid grappler. He tenaciously shoots for takedowns and looks to get the back and get the RNC. He is a skilled grappler from a wrestling and submission point of view.
Shore lands 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and relentlessly pursues them. Some of Shore’s wins have come from weak competition though so Shore was clearly able to pad his stats. However, I consider Shore a very solid wrestler who can absolutely wreck weak grapplers.
Shore also seems to be a pretty good defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 76 percent and generally works up well the few times that I have seen him taken down. His getup after being taken down by Timur Valiev was really impressive. Valiev did have some takedown success though and so did Ricky Simon.
Shore is an okay striker. I don’t think he is great on the feet but he is competent. His numbers are skewed in the UFC because many of his strikes have been on the mat so I won’t even go into them. However, he seems to be a competent boxer with decently sharp hands. He also has good low kicks as well. I do worry about his speed and athleticism though. He is also just not very physical which seemed to hurt him when he fought Ricky Simon and Joanderson Brito.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I slightly lean Zalal a bit. On the feet, it is hard to always be confident in Zalal because he lacks volume. However, I do think Zalal can land some leg kicks here and may have a speed advantage. I also think Zalal is superior defensively on the feet compared to Shore, and maybe has a bit more snap on his strikes. I also think Zalal is a more durable fighter than Shore. Still though, I could see it being competitive based on the occasional lack of activity from Zalal.
I do think Shore can potentially land takedowns here though. However, Zalal maybe can too. I also just doubt Shore dominates with grappling in general so I am a bit worried where Shore’s offense comes from in this fight.
I don’t know. I don’t think Zalal is way better than Shore in any particular area and his activity scares me a bit. However, I do think Zalal is more durable than Shore, has some better defense and has some leg kick upside, and is probably a bit more damaging of a striker. So I will pick Zalal to win.
—
On DraftKings, I’ll be curious to see whether the public prioritizes Zalal in the top range at 9.1k, coming off two strong performances.
Prior to his second UFC run, I didn’t consider Zalal very good and I thought he was one of the more boring fighters I’d seen in recent memory. But he’s seemingly improved and has capitalized with his grappling, so fair play to the kid.
Still, Zalal doesn’t throw strikes at a high rate, and he’d won by decision in the UFC seven times before his recent two submissions, so I don’t consider him an elite finisher. I also think Shore is a very competent fighter and the betting line surprises me a bit.
Zalal is only +250 to win ITD here, which isn’t that great. Yes, he does have some grappling upside and Shore has been hurt and submitted in the UFC. I think it’s possible Zalal is just more technically sound and defensively sound, and that can lead to a finish, but I still hesitate to play him at this price.
With a strong range at the top, including Malott and Jas, I will probably prioritize those other names personally. I’m just a bit worried that Zalal won’t fight aggressively, and without a RD 1 submission, I doubt he reaches a crazy ceiling.
Even in these recent smash performances, Zalal couldn’t surpass 101 DK points, which is some indication of his ceiling.
I’m a bit fearful of getting burned by not playing him again but I think this is a step up in competition for Zalal, and Shore has largely been a competent and well-rounded fighter, so my gut says he can at least extend the fight and limit the upside of Zalal early.
If you have more faith than me in an early grappling-based finish, feel free to target him ahead of the others in this range.
Shore at 7.1k is a good fighter but I don’t love the matchup.
I don’t love the matchup because Zalal has a tendency not to engage, and he’s defensively sound. The fight is -250 to go the distance.
Zalal has actually been taken down a lot in his career though. Random names like Austin Lingo, Jordan Griffin and SeungWoo Choi were taking him down. So I do think Shore can land takedowns. Shore might also be able to outstrike Zalal on pacing.
I’m just still not sure it leads to upside. Shore is only +700 to win ITD and the most realistic outcome for him in a win is like 60 sig. strikes and 2-3 takedowns. While a 70 point win is good at this price, it’s not enough for me to be excited about the play.
Again, Shore probably has more floor viability than most others in this range but it’s not the best matchup to produce points and I’d rather pay for better matchups or clearer paths to a finish elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zalal by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Alexandr Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Fight Odds: Nascimento -115, Romanov +100
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Nascimento 8.3k, Romanov 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Alexandr Romanov had a pretty dominant start through his first couple years in the UFC, but has gotten exposed on more than one occasion now when booked against Top 15 heavyweights – he’s 6-3 in the UFC and 17-3 as a pro. Rodrigo Nascimento’s a Contender Series alum from the 2019 season. He’s also had a bit of an up and down run over the years and is currently sitting at the #15 spot – he’s 4-2 in the UFC and 11-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Romanov historically hasn’t possessed much technical acumen on the feet. He’ll largely just bull forward with big winging shots, or he’ll throw in singular shots from the outside.
He’s got a decent body kick but there isn’t much process to his stand up and it’s more so used to just close distance.
He has shown power components though, finishing roughly half of his wins via strikes (many of which coming on the ground), but his strength of competition has been low in the aggregate.
Prior to his fight with Ivanov, only 30% of his UFC fight time had been spent at distance where he held a negative distance differential of –2.27/minute.
He’s been cracked a few times and largely relies on his chin, but it has held up to date (at distance).
The main fight to hit on for him was his outing against Tybura where he got tired and dropped the last two rounds at distance.
But in his outing against Ivanov that turned out to largely be standing, he out landed Ivanov 74-44 at distance. It wasn’t a particularly “pretty” performance, but it was actually nice to see Romanov showing some more process in his standup in relation to past fights in using a jab and low kicks. You can say what you want about Ivanov and the performance not blowing your hair back, but Ivanov isn’t a guy who is traditionally “easy” to beat on the feet. I think Romanov needs to be given credit for that performance.
Outside of those talking points, there’s not much else to say with Romanov on the feet.
Nascimento’s a good-sized heavyweight standing 6’2” with an 80” reach.
He’s not a high-level striker but not a low-level one either. He falls more into the decent category for me as more of a brooding, semi-technical brawler.
It does seem like he’s the kind of guy who really needs to be going forward and dictating exchanges for him to have consistent success. If he can get into that rhythm, he’s looked good historically.
However, he got blasted early by Daukaus with a big hook and was dropped in the 1st round by Baudot, largely based on Baudot being more busy standing – Baudot was one of the worst heavyweights on the roster – not a great look.
To his credit, he made a mid-fight adjustment in between rounds, went out there, got after him and put him down.
Boser won the overall exchanges in their fight, but Nascimento did land clean and hurt Boser as well.
Nascimento just did more against Latifi, out landing him to the head 51 to 20 in what was the real difference maker in that fight – Latifi still had kicking success though and landed some flush shots of his own to still compete.
Most recently, not much happened at distance overall in the Lewis fight but Nascimento ate some big shots early, and got hit with a big shot at the start of round 3 which he couldn’t recover from.
Metrics wise, he’s been a higher output heavyweight in a vacuum, landing 5.9 DLpM at 45% but also has eaten 6.2 DApM at 49% in return.
Overall, he’s definitely not a striker opponents can sleep on or want to let get going but he’s defensively flawed as are most heavyweights, where he probably has more KO losses coming in the future
How it plays out: I’d probably have to favor Nascimento on the feet just because we’ve seen him in more extended distance exchanges. He’s also the more technically proficient striker albeit that doesn’t mean much against Romanov. However, he still hasn’t always clearly separated and against not great levels of competition. He’s also been hurt more than Romanov has but that’s partially due to sample. But an interesting aspect of the stand up is that both guys are pressure fighters and don’t deal well with pressure back their way. So, if Romanov can put Nascimento on the back foot for periods, in theory he could win on the feet as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
The floor has been the credence to the career of Romanov as he comes from a wrestling background and has been able to have his way there with the large bulk of opponents.
He’s got good blast doubles but particularly excels from the body lock with trips and throws.
Caveat though that his strength of competition overall hasn’t been very good and he hasn’t fought many opponents who’ve been competent on the floor.
He did fight De Lima who on paper is a black belt, but after watching him over the years now, I think it’s fair to say that he’s not really a “Black Belt”. Romanov submitted him with a forearm choke – pretty embarrassing for De Lima.
However, he did fight Espino who’s a credentialled wrestler/grappler where he was able to land two TDs and have some control success on Espino. But he struggled in that fight a good bit as well, as he was taken down multiple times and actually got mounted at one point.
Romanov was exhausted come the 3rd round and it really looked like the tides were turning in that fight. Espino landed a peppering nut shot and Romanov said he couldn’t continue. I genuinely think Romanov wanted out of that fight because he knew he was cooked – Romanov wins via Tech Decision on a technicality.
He dominated Tybura in the 1st round with his wrestling but went 0-3 in the 2nd and didn’t even attempt in the 3rd – I thought the fight should have been a draw personally.
He death gassed against Volkov in legitimately one minute, and showed up in the worst shape of his career – got finished on the ground himself. Almeida recently ran through him quickly last time out.
He can struggle with ground control at times as well, and despite having submission wins, his overall submission grappling is not very good in my opinion.
But he is a solid grinder who can pass on top, win minutes with his wrestling and effective ground striking.
Overall, I haven’t been as high on Romanov as many people were originally, but I have to give him his due that he is one of the better wrestlers in the heavyweight division which will give him auto success and advantages over most guys.
Nascimento is a BJJ black belt with six of his 11 pro wins coming via submission. He’s additionally shown some wrestling upside through his UFC run, landing 1.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 37%.
However, I don’t think his wrestling is anything special, far from it but he’s shown good things from the body lock, the ability to pass guys guards and take backs.
He did struggle to take down Baudot though which isn’t the best of looks, going 0-4 and he wasn’t able to get Mayes down in the rematch despite submitting him in the 1st outing.
Wrestling was a key component in his win against Boser though, although Boser can’t grapple. He was able to get on top of Lewis a few times but lost mount on the first occasion and couldn’t finish from the back in the 2nd round.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much, but we did see Latifi rack up some minutes that took a round from Nascimento and forced a close fight.
Lewis also took him down and did some work on top which wasn’t the greatest of looks.
Overall, Nascimento isn’t anything special on the floor but is a capable ground fighter by heavyweight standards which does give him a theoretical leg up over quite a few guys who don’t offer much.
How it plays out: The ground’s interesting for a handful of reasons. First, I don’t think either guy has looked good on the bottom in the instances that they’ve been there. Second, Romanov will be the best wrestler that Nascimento has fought to date so him not working up under Latifi in the 2nd round is alarming (Latifi was also a blown up 205 at 39 years old who retired after that fight). Third, Nascimento couldn’t take Mayes down in the 2nd fight and couldn’t finish Boser on the mat who can’t grapple at all really. Fourth, more on the Romanov side, he looked completely lost in the jiu-jitsu realm in his last fight against Almeida. Almeida is a stud in fairness with high level jiu-jitsu, but he did essentially all the wrong things there. Fifth, Romanov’s cardio has come under scrutiny in numerous fights now. But it also begs the question of what Nascimento’s cardio looks like if he’s getting tossed around for the first time in his career. So in theory, I could see either guy realistically dominating the other on the mat. I think Romanov has better wrestling but Nascimento has better jiu-jitsu.
This fight’s a bit of a head scratcher because it brings a lot of question marks and I don’t really trust either guy to be candid. I’ll take Nascimento for the win for the sole reason that he probably holds up better in an extended contest but it’s a super high-variance matchup.
—
On DraftKings, I suppose I have interest in this fight by default but I actually worry that it will extend and underperform expectations.
Romanov has been one of the best fantasy scorers in the past few years. In wins, he’s put up 128, 110, 67, 134, 112, and 83. He’s not super likely to win a distance game, and usually needs wrestling domination.
So in that sense, there is upside within his profile and he can be targeted in essentially any fight.
Nascimento is the superior BJJ player and Romanov has looked lost on the mat at times, when he’s not on top dominating. He’s also shown cardio issues. So it wouldn’t be a shock to see either fighter contend for the optimal in a win.
My fear is that Romanov will not be able to dominate Nascimento if he gets in top position. And then if Nascimento simply survives, that’s going to kill off a huge percentage of the domination equity of Romanov because he won’t produce the same level of offense later in the fight.
Nascimento already has a questionable style, and I don’t think he’s extremely likely to win by KO. I don’t particularly trust his wrestling either and he’s been an underwhelming finisher. He definitely does have a path to early takedowns, back control and a RNC but he’s failed to achieve that against weaker competition than Romanov.
Nascimento is priced at 8.3k and rates out fine with a +185 ITD line and wrestling equity. I think he’s worthy of consideration, but again his optimal path is probably takedowns and a submission, which I don’t fully trust.
So I consider Nascimento a secondary target overall. He may be willing to force an extended, striking-based fight here where he has an advantage but that doesn’t help us much for fantasy. There’s still enough upside to mix him in around the field percentage.
Romanov at 7.9k is the safer target in the sense that if he wins, I feel he would have a decent shot at the optimal.
He probably also has more RD 1 win equity than Nascimento, and also carries the same +185 ITD line overall. Nascimento has been taken down a few times and I’m honestly willing to play a bit of Romanov on that case alone, especially as the public may be more scared off him now than in past fights.
Again, an extended fight likely kills off the ceiling case for Romanov though and that’s a very viable outcome as well. So he’s just a standard secondary/upside target for me who is a viable mix-in around the field percentage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nascimento by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Serhiy Sidey vs. Garrett Armfield
Fight Odds: Sidey -144, Armfield +125
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Sidey 8.6k, Armfield 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Serhiy Sidey’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season where he earned a contract. But his fight was deemed a premature stoppage by many, so he got rebooked against the same opponent where he then dropped a decision in his debuting rematch – he’s 10-2 as a pro. Garrett Armfield bypassed the Contender Series as a short notice fill-in back in 2022. Despite going 2-2, he’s made it to his 2nd UFC contract – he’s 10-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Sidey’s on the bigger end of 135, standing 5’11” with a 72” reach. He can fight out of both stances but fights primarily orthodox and is better from that stance.
He works in a more pressure kickboxing-based style where he doesn’t discriminate his attacks, as he’ll mix it up well – good front kicks/leg kicks, sound body work and will throw in combinations to the head.
Sidey’s also shown to be a higher output striker and a dangerous one at that with six of his 10 pro wins coming KO/TKO – I’ve seen him hurt guys to all three levels as well. However, despite being a potent offensive striker, he’s got issues defensively.
He can be susceptible to counter shots when pressuring as he can overextend or just get caught flat-footed in the pocket – he also doesn’t really check kicks.
So, he can be hit clean and can absorb a high number of strikes but has shown to be a durable guy to date – he has gotten buckled on a few occasions though. In a way, he reminds me a lot of Lucas Almeida.
Overall, I generally like what I’ve seen so far from Sidey from an offensive perspective, but I feel he’s going to run into some more issues fighting more adept UFC level strikers.
Armfield’s a stockier 135er that works in a pressure boxing-based style. He’s got very consistent volume, good hand speed, sound hooks in tight and will dig the body.
The majority of his opponents just haven’t had an answer to his pressure and power, and he’s scored KOs in six of his 10 pro wins.
I actually thought Armfield made a pretty decent account of himself in his short notice debut against a very big David Onama who had 5” of height and 4” of reach on him – Onama only out landed him 27 to 20 at distance with both guys having success.
But you could tell that the length of Onama did start to become an issue for him later in the round and Armfield only landed at a 29% clip.
He beat the tar out of Kazama, out struck Katona 105 to 64 and most recently won the distance exchanges against Hiestand while also scoring a knockdown in the 2nd round.
Defensively, he will throw a bit of caution to the wind in the pocket and can overextend on shots at times, but he’s shown some respectable striking defense. He’s also never been KO’d in his pro career but hasn’t fought many impactful strikers which needs to be noted.
Overall, I largely like what I’ve seen from Armfield on the feet as a scrappy dude and I feel he’ll continue to fare well standing in most outings.
How it plays out: I don’t have a passionate opinion on the striking as the fight profiles to be a higher volume war. Both guys have some defensive issues but are also tough and have power to boot. Both also tend to be front-footed strikers so part of what it comes down to is who’s able to get the respect of the other. I ultimately side more with Sidey based on his length advantage, having slightly better technical boxing and cardio. But make no mistake, this will be a scrap with knockdown variance.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Sidey’s a BJJ purple belt and we’ve seen a bit of everything from him in this capacity.
It was his first pro loss to Mateo Vogel back in 2020 where he struggled with the wrestling grind and grappling from Vogel to ultimately drop that decision.
He did put up resistance and was able to reverse positions on more than one occasion, but he just couldn’t keep Vogel off him really and also gave up dominant positions throughout the course of the fight – he fought hands well though and Vogel is a BJJ black belt.
But since that fight, it appears he’s made some good evolutions as he’s stuffed the majority of TDs that have come back his way.
He stuffed well over 10 attempts in the 1st Wasuk fight but did get taken down early the 2nd contest, though he worked back up after roughly a minute or so though. Sidey also locked up a quick triangle on Platon after being taken down early in that fight.
But we’ve seen him mix TDs into other fights as well, specifically against Russell where he looked good from top position over the course of 25 minutes.
He’s still not a guy that I would anticipate to come out and shoot a high volume of TDs in most matchups though as a primary striker.
Overall, Sidey seems capable on the ground despite it not being his base, but I would like a larger sample before putting a stamp on his ground competency.
Armfield comes from a wrestling background out of Missouri State and is a BJJ purple belt as of 2021.
Despite that background, Armfield does prefer to stand and strike by and large, but we have seen him mix wrestling into a handful of his fights.
He’s shown to be strong from top positions and has a handful of submissions but the guys he’s been able to outwrestle/outgrapple have been fighters of a lower tier.
However, he had Hiestand who’s a primary floor player in a pretty deep armbar early in the last fight, and mounted some top success after the knockdown in round two.
Defensively, the ground has played the primary factor in all four of his pro losses.
He had some struggles back on the regionals with Ronnie Lawrence in 2019 but Ronnie Lawrence out-wrestles the large majority of his opponents in fairness and he scrambled well.
He was winning the bulk of the Vogel fight standing but got a bit tired, made a small mistake, got his back taken and was submitted.
Somewhat of a similar story against Onama where Onama was able to find his way on top in the 2nd, work into an arm triangle and finish. But it was by no means “grappling domination” minute to minute in those fights.
Katona took him down four times but really struggled with controlling Armfield on the ground to where most of his minutes came against the fence.
His most recent outing against Hiestand had some back-and-forth components but Hiestand ultimately bested him on the floor, landing six TDs and finding a late RNC – Armfield fought out of a deep guillotine and RNC attempt prior though.
Overall, the floor’s definitely been more of a con than pro for Armfield, but I don’t think he’s inept and can produce offense himself – he’s just ran into some quality ground fighters.
How it plays out: Despite Armfield’s ground struggles, I don’t put Sidey’s ground game on the level of the guys that have out grappled him in the past. More of the merit I would see for Sidey would be down the stretch if Armfield slows down where he could land a couple TDs, but I don’t project much overall success for him. I actually think Armfield has sneaky ground upside if that’s a path he potentially pursues. But I’d anticipate this fight to primarily take place on the feet.
Fun scrap. For the striking reasons mentioned above, I lean to the Sidey side but assuming nobody goes down, it’ll probably be a 29-28 greasy type of fight.
—
On DraftKings, I am semi-interested in this matchup due to pacing, but it’s still not a clear cut target.
Sidey is priced up to 8.6k, and he’s fine, but I think he probably would need a knockout to be optimal. I don’t think he’s a great talent, and he’s coming off a kind of poor loss, so I’m not really inclined to spend for him.
He will be five inches taller than Armfield and will likely be slamming those legs into Armfield at range. I think there’s some KO upside because of it and because Armfield will be willing to engage.
Armfield also got tired in his last fight (at a brutal pace to be fair) and he’s given up takedowns, so there are some defensive concerns. Sidey is only +285 to win ITD though which isn’t a great mark.
I don’t love Sidey overall. There are other fights in this range with clearer paths to a ceiling, so I think I prefer them by default. However, I could see some pacing-based upside to Sidey and he’s a fine mix-in at 8.6k where he may be overlooked by the public.
Armfield at 7.6k feels like the better option just due to the salary savings.
I have some concerns about him being smaller than Sidey, but Sidey was just tagged up and knocked down by Taveras, so I think Armfield could in theory match that performance. I also think Armfield has mild, but sneaky grappling equity as Luke pointed to.
Armfield is only +285 to win ITD though, so we can’t expect a finish. And then it’s a concern where if he’s landing 100 sig. strikes in a win, he probably is not finding his way to the optimal with 70 DK points. We would really need additional wrestling in this situation or a KD which is tough to predict.
I don’t mind Armfield as a fighter who could win, in a fun pacing matchup with some KD/grappling equity. But he’s also not a real stand out and there are ceiling concerns. He’s a viable mix-in but I’d only label him a secondary/price target and/or pivot off the five-rounders.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sidey by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Chad Anheliger vs. Cody Gibson
Fight Odds: Gibson -194, Anheliger +165
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Gibson 8.7k, Anheliger 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Chad Anheliger’s a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season who was able to make it to his next contract with a win over Charalampos Grigoriou back in March – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 13-7 as a pro. Cody Gibson got his first crack in the UFC back in 2014 but was cut after going 1-3. But he was a part of the TUF 31 season in 2023 where he earned a contract despite losing in the finals to Brad Katona. He’s since gone 1-1 and is 20-10 as a pro.
The striking component:
Anheliger has fought at 125 lbs in the past so he’s not your biggest 135er in the world, standing 5’6” with a 64” reach. But he does make up for that with his hand speed and supplemental footwork.
He’s shown he can take angles, has some nice low kicks and power components to boot with seven of his 13 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
Defensively, he’s not really eating extended combinations but he does let guys kick him for free and can be susceptible on opponent entry.
We saw him get the better of the standup against Gafurov on the Contender Series, he actually dropped him with a knee in the first round but it’s not as if he blew him out of the water either – Gafarov competed and landed some big shots of his own.
Against Strader, he was out struck at distance which is pretty embarrassing considering Strader is not a technical range striker in any capacity – Strader was winning the earlier exchanges until Anheliger hurt him in the 2nd – Strader eventually gassed, Anheliger chewed his leg and KO’d him later.
Outside of Strader having a healthy amount of distance success, the other alarming thing was that it took him nearly a full 15 minutes to KO Strader who’s known to be a fragile fighter. Anheliger did compete with Alateng on the numbers, but he spent the majority of the fight going backwards and was just eating the bigger shots – he specifically got hurt early in the 1st round despite not getting dropped.
There wasn’t a ton of time at distance against Johnson, but the exchanges were relatively competitive – it was more so of Johnson’s clinch and ground striking to what got him ahead.
Most recently, he significantly out stuck Grigoriou 68 to 21 at distance – he more so really pulled away in the back half of the fight when Grigoriou slowed down.
Overall, Anheliger is dangerous (in some capacity), can look good if guys let him get into a rhythm and he’s not a fighter opponents want to slow down against. But with the proper game plan from opponents, he can struggle depending on who’s across from him.
Gibson’s a wrestler by base but is a guy that’s happy to stand and mix it up on the feet as well.
His pacing has been a bit all over the board as I’ve seen him be high volume in certain affairs but low volume in others.
His best work comes with hands when he can really start to work with his frame, as he’s a good sized 135er, standing 5’10” with a 71” reach. He’s got a particularly good long straight right and some pull counters.
Gibson has shown power as well, finishing seven of his 20 pro wins via strikes – he also knocked down Gamburyan in one his UFC losses, caught Gutierrez with a flying knee on TUF and hurt Kelleher with elbows most recently.
Defensively, I think he’s decent when he wants to be. But my issue is that he can get lazy at times at distance or just throw his defense out the window completely. Additionally, he’s had some tighter rounds on minutes.
He’s never been KO’d in his pro career, so I’d have to classify him as a durable fighter, but he got knocked down by Andrade back in the day, got knocked down in his fight against Rivera prior to entering TUF and got his eye busted up against Katona in the finals, with optics of late Katona damage and Gibson favoring that probably cost him that fight.
He struggled with the counter/blitz striking of Johns a few fights back as well.
Overall, he’s a scrappy, serviceable guy on the feet but his defense isn’t good for a guy of his size/length.
How it plays out: Gibson will realize a significant size advantage here in 4” of height and 7” of reach. The striking’s a bit difficult to analyze because there are aspects of both guys’ styles that I feel can give issues to the other. I think the linear, long-range attacks of Gibson can be problematic for Anheliger, but I also think uppercuts, calf kicks and lateral movement of Anheliger can give issues to Gibson. The stand up seems variable.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Anheliger is a more recently crowned BJJ black belt and has three submission wins as a pro – all coming via guillotine.
Those were fights I wasn’t able to view but usually when the only submission a guy has on his record is a guillotine, it’s not a great sign for what his offensive grappling prowess is.
He’s also not a very willing wrestler, although he went 4/8 on Johnson and racked up six minutes of control – I more so attribute that to the size parity of the matchup though and Johnson was able reverse positions on numerous occasions.
On the flip side, the floor has been the biggest issue for Anheliger throughout his career as he’s been submitted in six of his seven pro losses.
He’s also only stuffed TDs at 42% through his first four UFC/Contender Series fights and it’s how guys have won minutes on him – Strader winning the 1stt, Gafarov winning the 2nd, added wrestling in the 3rd from Alateng who went 2/2, Johson being able to get on top where he landed some good GNP and eventually found the RNC late in the 3rd round, and most recently Grigoriou went 4/5 with five minutes of control but Anheliger was tough to flatten there – still made early margins close.
We also learned in his fight with Hiestand (fight before Contender Series), he was outwrestled for the 1st two rounds of that fight before scoring an early KO in the 3rd.
Going back to his guillotines, that’s largely what his primary line of TDD is as guys can get in on his hips. To his credit, he’s not a dead fish on bottom and is looking to create space and attack submissions.
If you remove the knockdown in his fight with Gafurov though, he most likely drops that round via wrestling which would have lost him that fight as a whole and probably doesn’t earn a contract which is interesting.
Also, him getting outwrestled by Strader is embarrassing – really where Strader started to struggle in that department was when he got hurt and gassed halfway through.
Overall, Anheliger is going to make guys work who will implement ground games against him, but it’s well documented now that he makes a lot of mistakes on the ground too and is losing 61% of the control time positions.
Gibson was a JUCO all-American wrestler back in the day and also reps a BJJ brown belt.
Despite his background though, he’s not the guy to be diving on the legs for 15 minutes.
He landed a few TDs on Dodson but couldn’t flatten him – no shame as Dodson is incredibly difficult to take down and hold down – did get some cage grind minutes on him though. In his loss to Borg, he got rag-dolled in the back half of the fight and gassed out – Borg is a good wrestler though and a former top 15 guy in fairness.
Then in a couple of his more recent wins he’s been able to lock up some top side submissions but not against a very high brand of competition.
However, he’s been submitted in four of his 10 pro losses (three by guillotine,) and wrestling against has been a component in his losses even dating back to his original UFC run.
Overall, it’s still a bit difficult for me to assess Gibson on the ground because I don’t really rate the guys he’s having success against and I can’t fault him for the guys that have outwrestled him.
How it plays out: I’d side with Gibson in the wrestling department as the bigger guy who’s probably the more willing party to shoot TDs. His general frame may blanket a guy like Anheliger and it’s hard to ignore Anheliger’s submission defense struggles throughout his career. However, it’s difficult to ignore that Gibson’s succumbed to guillotines in the past and that’s Anheliger best submission. Additionally, we’ve seen Gibson lose positions on multiple occasions too and get stuck on his back at points to where I additionally see some upside to Anheliger. I still think Gibson has more upside to really separate of the two or to finish.
Weird fight between two guys of the older guard at 37 years old respectively, and fighters who haven’t been the most consistent/trustworthy parties in the world. The matchup has some volatile elements, but I do side with Gibson given what I ran through with his higher grappling upside in the matchup.
—
On DraftKings, I hate to be repetitive with some of these mid-range fights, but I find this matchup difficult to prioritize.
Gibson is priced up at 8.7k, and he has some viability but his base level expectation won’t be good enough. He is +240 to win ITD and is coming off a quick submission win, but Anheliger is not easy to finish.
With that said, Anheliger has been subbed many times, and he’s also a lot smaller than Gibson. Those X factors peak my interest in Gibson a bit as he could maybe find success at range, and ideally could find success on the mat. Gibson is not always urgent in wrestling though.
I did like that he landed multiple takedowns in his last fight against Kelleher early, and avoided the guillotine which Kelleher is also known for. That gives me some hope for upside.
At 8.7k, Gibson just isn’t a priority, but this is a tough range and I actually think he’s viable based on theoretics. He could wrestle and he has a size advantage. A viable secondary target who shouldn’t be incredibly popular.
Anheliger at 7.5k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
He has some power in his hands, and very mild wrestling equity, but he’s only +650 to win ITD. He won’t project to land a ton of takedowns or score many points per minute, so I think you’re banking on a big moment that leads to a finish.
It’s not impossible but not something I’d project at a high rate either. I doubt he’ll be owned much and this is a tough range as well, but Anheliger just isn’t my favorite target or fighter to invest in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gibson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Ivana Petrovic
Fight Odds: Horth -220, Petrovic +185
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Horth 8.8k, Petrovic 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a goofy and low-level fight here between Jamey-Lyn Horth and Ivana Petrovic.
Horth is 6-1 professionally fighting mostly terrible competition. She did actually beat Lupita Godinez twice on the amateur circuit but those fights were about seven years ago.
Horth made her UFC debut against Hailey Cowan and basically won a low tempo striking fight where she landed 76 significant strikes in a pretty boring and terrible fight. She then lost a close decision to Veronica Hardy. She was a little too slow at range against Hardy and lost some of the striking exchanges early. However, she did start having success in the clinch and in some grappling exchanges where she found top position. She started implementing those grappling exchanges a bit too late though.
Horth is a goofy fighter to describe. She is very big standing at 5’7” and also looks like a strong girl. However, it is hard to even describe where her offense comes from. On the feet, I don’t consider her all that good, especially at distance. She is slow and a bit plodding and doesn’t have a ton of movement. She can go through the motions a little bit and wing some power punches occasionally. However, she looks a bit hittable to me and I have even seen her dropped on the regionals. I consider her a mildly competent striker who can outstrike bad fighters. However, she doesn’t have a ton of striking depth.
Most of Horth’s offense (at least on the regionals) usually came from top position on the mat. She can hold position and she’s semi decent on top. Although she gets top position in fights, I have only seen her land like one actual takedown lol. She usually gets to top position off defending a shitty shot from her opponent and sprawling on top of them, or if her opponent falls over or something. I am not sold on Horth’s takedowns at all, but I do like her defensive grappling and her ability to turn those situations into top position for herself.
Horth’s TDD is a bit suspect to me. I have seen her get taken down off caught kicks at least five times in just a few fights. She does seem to know what she is doing in bottom position though. She can generally retain guard and work to her feet. She looks competent as a pure BJJ player and can surely defend herself on the mat. She is a BJJ brown belt and I think a legitimate one.
Horth just looks pretty mid to me. She is big which will help her. However, I question her offensive abilities as I don’t think she is that good of a striker or a real takedown threat. I do think her top game is pretty respectable though as well as her overall technical BJJ grappling game. I also think she is positionally strong in the clinch.
Horth will be taking on Ivana Petrovic. Petrovic is a Bosnian fighter who is 7-1 professionally but had an amateur loss in 2019.
I honestly was not very impressed by Petrovic on tape before her UFC debut against Luana Carolina where she was a moderate favorite. I picked Carolina to beat her as an underdog and Carolina beat her pretty clearly by decision. Petrovic just had fraud written all over her. She hadn’t beaten anyone good. She competed in Ares FC, a French MMA promotion, which isn’t that great.
Petrovic did bounce back after her loss to Carolina though where she defeated Na Liang by ground finish in the third round. That doesn’t really impress me much though because Na Liang is terrible and one of the most likely fighters to collapse in the UFC.
Petrovic is basically a grappler. She can kind of shoot takedowns, get some control, and work for submissions. I guess she is maybe capable of outgrappling low tier UFC level competition like she did against Liang. I just don’t think her wrestling is actually that good though. She also isn’t a great athlete and I just question how good she actually is. I thought she lost a regional fight vs Marta Waliczek. Furthermore, she was losing to Alexandra Tekenah but then got a RNC with 17 seconds left.
As a striker, Petrovic doesn’t look good. Standing out of the southpaw stance, she can throw an occasional one two and a leg kick, but I don’t think striking will be a real path to victory for her at this level. I have seen her dropped before and I question her athleticism and volume. Carolina outlanded her at distance 27-16 and actually landed one takedown on Petrovic, and obtained six minutes of control.
I basically just don’t think Petrovic is very good and think she will be limited to out grappling very weak grapplers in the UFC. She is a borderline striking liability and it even looks like she can be controlled on the mat herself.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think Horth has Petrovic covered everywhere. Horth isn’t good but she just seems to be better than Petrovic in all areas. Horth also just looks like a more physical fighter which can help her on the feet and on the mat in this matchup.
On the feet, I think Horth is better as a striker and hits a bit harder. I expect her to get the better of the striking exchanges but this is a low enough level of a fight where I could see it being sloppy and competitive. This is a huge step down for Horth though from Veronica Hardy. We have seen that Hardy is a decent striker as of late and Petrovic really has nothing on the feet.
Also as a grappler, I think Horth is likely better. I think Petrovic is the more persistent wrestler and is more likely to shoot takedowns in this matchup. It may result in a takedown or two as Horth has been taken down off caught kicks before. So perhaps the takedowns of Petrovic can keep her in this fight as she may be the more urgent wrestler.
However, I don’t really see Petrovic doing much with the takedowns and I am not even sure she can take or hold Horth down either. On the other hand, I think Horth has better top control and may turn her defensive wrestling into top position. Petrovic shoots a lot of bad takedowns and it may just play right into Horth’s game. Also, these girls will likely clinch a lot too and Horth looks a bit stronger there.
I can’t be all that confident in Horth as a fighter to win fights easily because she doesn’t put up a ton of offense, and I don’t actually think she is good. However, I do think she is better here and WAY more likely to dominate so I will pick her to win. I just think Horth can defensively handle any offense Petrovic will bring.
—
On DraftKings, this is among the worst fights on the slate for fantasy potential and I don’t expect either side to carry much ownership.
Horth is priced at 8.8k and just feels too expensive to target as anything other than a spot to be unique.
She is coming off a loss that scored 36 and a win that scored 67, and is now +350 to win ITD. She may have mild grappling equity and I don’t think Petrovic is very good, but it’s hard to categorize her upside as anything special unless she randomly secures an early finish.
Odds are that outcome doesn’t happen at a high rate. Also, it’s just a large slate with many strong options, so she’s super low on the pecking order. You could talk me into her as a large-field contrarian option by default, considering Petrovic’s issues, but Horth just won’t project very well and I’d much rather invest in the majority of other favorites.
Petrovic is probably more viable on DK just due to salary relief at 7.4k, but I still am not very interested.
She just scored 103 against Na Liang but Liang has been finished in all four of her UFC fights in similar fashion. This isn’t a comparable matchup.
Petrovic does have wrestling equity though, which is the primary reason to consider her. If she wins, it probably does come with takedowns. I just don’t think she can do much damage and she’s only +675 to win ITD.
There are simply other underdogs I feel better about and ones with clearer paths to a ceiling. Perhaps there’s some floor viability here given the price but Petrovic will be quite low on my priority list this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Horth by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)