UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates (11/9/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
Fight Odds: Prates -822, Magny +550
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Prates 9.6k, Magny 6.6k
Weight Class: 170
The UFC is really trying to build Carlos Prates into a welterweight prospect, as he’ll get his first main event opportunity only four fights into his promotional career, facing off against a veteran in Neil Magny this weekend.
I don’t blame them, considering Prates has looked phenomenal in that short span. He’s knocked out Trevin Giles, Charles Radtke, and most recently Li Jingliang, and a couple of those finishes have been picturesque.
Prates is now 20-6 professionally with 15 wins by KO, coming from DWCS where he earned his contract with another early KO over Mitch Ramirez.
His long frame, and precise, accurate combinations at distance are seemingly his best attributes. I wouldn’t label him an insane power striker or physical force, but his ability to land on the button has consistently translated into damage, and it feels like his offensively potent style will continue to lead him to success at the UFC level.
I assume the public is quite high on him as well, especially given his massive betting line. He’s literally in there slamming perfectly timed knees into the stomach of his opponents, and putting guys out cold, and it just feels like once he gets his timing down, those big shots are going to continue to land.
The primary downside in his game to this point has been his defensive grappling, which hasn’t been tested a ton recently, but we’ve seen Prates lose by submission a few times throughout his long regional career. In fact, Prates has been finished in five of his six losses, which is just something to note.
Ramirez was able to take him down on DWCS from an attempt that I didn’t really love, and so it’s still one part of Prates’ game that I will be skeptical about moving forward. However, his long frame and ability to land shots as opponents close distance are two factors that will benefit him against mediocre wrestlers.
Prates will now face the Neil Magny test, which is one that several prospects have not been able to pass.
Magny has been in the UFC for more than a decade, and he debuted back in 2013 which shows incredible longevity.
He’s never been a championship contender though, largely due to the fact that he’s just not that dangerous, and doesn’t have the same athletic capabilities as many in the top-end of the division.
His clinch game has been what’s led him to victories more often than not, as many have failed to separate from that position and have eventually been dragged to the ground, where Magny is averaging 2.15 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
On top, Magny’s length helps aid him to control positions, and if you start to fatigue, he will make you pay.
Look no further than Magny’s last win, which came at the expense of hot prospect Mike Malott, who had pretty easily won the first 12 minutes of that matchup before making a mistake that led to Magny earning top position. Then in the final minute, Magny secured mount and pounded Malott out for a TKO stoppage.
Even other legit prospects like Geoff Neal couldn’t pass this test. Neal has been knocking everyone out but he couldn’t outland Magny at distance, he got tired, he got taken down and ultimately lost the decision. Phil Rowe lost a close decision as well.
I think at the very least, it tells me Neil Magny has a path to victory against most opponents, which does include Carlos Prates.
I am actually not certain at all how Prates will handle this test. I mean, he should have a considerable advantage at range, one that’s likely to be enough to produce a win, and probably another highlight reel knockout if I’m being honest.
But the last real, legit takedown attempt I saw against Prates, he was easily dumped on the mat by Ramirez who is half his size. And looking back at Prates’ fight history, that wrestling aspect does concern me a little bit.
The other issue here is that Prates has been a little bit lacking in pacing. He actually lands 4.71 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.02 per minute with a 48 percent defensive rate. Those aren’t real quality metrics.
He lost the first round to Trevin Giles in his UFC debut at range, getting outlanded 35 to 24 which is pretty pathetic, as Giles is not a good talent. Both Li Jingliang and Radtke were ultra-competitive with him at distance, prior to getting knocked out.
I feel that Prates has tremendous upside as a sharpshooter, and I think his talent in sniping will continue to lead him to success. But he hasn’t dealt super well with pressure, and he’s failing to get far ahead on a per-minute basis.
He’s also not much of a wrestler or grappler and it’s quite possible that is a real liability in his game as he takes steps up in competition.
All things considered, am I so confident that Magny can’t just hold onto him in the clinch, wear him out and drag him down a couple of times? Not really..
I’m definitely still going to pick Prates to win. Despite Magny’s length which exceeds that of Prates, Magny doesn’t use it well and he’s not a great distance striker.
Prates should chew him up at distance for the most part, and Magny is coming off a knockout loss to another good prospect in Michael Morales. He has also been knocked down a handful of other times in his career.
The most likely outcome for me is that Prates eventually lands some big shots that hurt Magny, and he’s able to swarm for a finish.
If Magny is not able to clinch and drag Prates down, I don’t really see the fight being too competitive anyways.
But obviously, Magny should try that. He should push Prates backward, and make him grapple. Even if Magny can’t land takedowns or hold Prates down, tying him up in the clinch could wear Prates down and make wrestling exchanges easier as the fight progresses.
And I think it’s within the range of outcomes that Prates just looks bad on the mat, and Magny is able to control him easily after the first round or two. I feel like the odds on this fight are quite wide based on that dynamic alone.
Overall, there’s a fairly strong chance Prates will get off to a lead at distance, snipe Magny and hurt him before Magny really gets into a groove.
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On DraftKings, Prates is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k, and I honestly don’t think he’s that fantastic of a play.
I mean, because he’s not really a wrestler and won’t project for takedown success, the longer the fight goes, the worse of a fantasy expectation we should have for him. The bulk of his top-end ceiling equity would come with a very early finish.
While that outcome is possible, if not likely, Prates has already secured it a few times in the UFC without smashing. He has wins of 95, 106 and 112.
Those scores aren’t bad, but at 9.6k, 95 points definitely would not cut it on a slate with many heavy favorites. I’m not even sure 106 would cut it, and I would lean toward no.
A score of 112 is definitely enough to contend for the optimal, but that also came with two knockdowns which is probably not the most predictive measure.
Prates has a super strong ITD line of -400, but he’s also +200 to win in round one. If this fight extends past round one, it’s very difficult to be sure he will put up a score worthy of his DK price tag.
He may not be as popular as a typical main event favorite, given the price tag, and the strength of the slate, but he’ll definitely get love this week. While I can see the merit to targeting him for that TKO upside, I still think there’s significant risk of him underperforming in a fight that extends mildly, and I think I’d rather pay down more often than the field does, and save salary when possible.
Magny at 6.6k is viable as a dart throw in large field tournaments.
He’s not someone I can really recommend much exposure to as a heavy +550 underdog, and it’s not even a great matchup for him. I don’t have much faith in Magny producing points.
But he’ll provide massive leverage against Prates, with a win condition based on grappling, so there’s still upside. It’s not an impossible path either.
With a large portfolio, I would include a small dose of Magny for the reasons mentioned but he’s a fine option to X out of your player pool if you’re just creating a few lineups.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Prates by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
Fight Odds: Sopaj -324, Turcios +260
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Sopaj 9k, Turcios 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
Bernardo Sopaj was on the wrong end of a knockout of the year contender in his UFC debut, and he’ll look to secure his first promotional win this Saturday against a scrapper in Ricky Turcios.
Sopaj is 11-3 professionally at age 24, and he comes from the Allstars camp in Sweden which has produced a bunch of strong talents, including Khamzat Chimaev.
Sopaj has earned seven wins by knockout and three by submission, but I’d label him more of a round winner at the UFC level, which is honestly somewhat of a concern.
Sopaj has a kickboxing background, and he seems competent. I wouldn’t label him an extreme power or physical threat though, and his volume only seems mediocre to me. With that said, he’s got some speed in his hands and has a decent variety of tools to use, including kicks.
He also looks like a neutralizer to me, to a degree, where I don’t think he’ll be putting himself in compromising positions and will look to trade and then disengage. Overall I would say he’s reasonably technical, and still young and promising, but I’m not sold he’s some legit finisher at this level and I think his success will come more in outclassing lower-level competition.
As a wrestler, Sopaj is decent, though we haven’t seen too much. There wasn’t much evidence of a wrestling game on the regional scene, but he did land a couple takedowns in his debut and I think it could be a path to victory for him.
However, I don’t trust in his finishing ability on the mat either and I still feel like it will come down to his level of competition.
What I am primarily interested in as far as this matchup, is how Sopaj will look in relation to his last fight, where he did come in on short notice, and gassed out halfway through the fight.
Sopaj had clearly won the first round against Vinicius Oliveira, and took him down a couple times early on. He also took Oliveira down in the second round and had his back, which many felt at the time could lead to a finish.
Oliveira slipped off the top though, and ended up on top of Sopaj, and that was unfortunately the end of the fight. Oliveira landed some heavy shots on the ground, and Sopaj struggled to defend himself.
In round three, Oliveira chased Sopaj around the Octagon, hurting him, and eventually landed a clean flying knee with just seconds remaining that put Sopaj out cold.
It was a crazy finish, but one that could be contextualized considering the threat of Oliveira, and the short notice appearance for Sopaj.
Ricky Turcios is not an opponent you want to tire against though, and I now have some very real concerns as to whether Sopaj is able to handle adversity in the Octagon.
Turcios isn’t a technically strong fighter in any capacity, but he’s got a big heart, and fights at a high pace. He’s exactly the type to break an opponent after losing some initial minutes, and I’m pretty worried that he’s the perfect recipe to break a guy like Sopaj.
The worst part of Turcios’ game is his takedown defense. It’s awful. He’s defending at 45 percent, and he just tips over way too easily for my liking.
In four UFC matchups, Turcios has been taken down 17 times, which is horrid.
However, Turcios won’t just lie there on his back and give up. He will scramble and even threaten with his own grappling. He actually beat Brady Hiestand who landed six takedowns, and he beat Kevin Natividad who landed seven takedowns.
Even in a submission loss to Raul Rosas last time out, Turcios reversed the position early and had Rosas in a deep RNC.
So while I think Sopaj can land takedowns if he tries them, I’m really not sure he can hold Turcios down or find a finish. And if Turcios is constantly scrambling back to his feet, that could really tire Sopaj out.
On the feet, again, Sopaj will be more technical for sure. Turcios just kinda throws whatever he wants in there and doesn’t have much defense to speak of. But he pushes forward at a high pace and that’s contributed to him winning fights where his opponents have produced lots of offense as well.
I mean, Turcios even won a round against Natividad where Turcios was knocked down. Because he got right back up and just kept marching forward, eventually putting Natividad in a terrible position on the mat.
The bottom line is that Turcios is a pace fighter. He has terrible defense and he can’t wrestle, but he will not quit. So you either have to put him out, or outlast him, and both of those paths are complicated.
I really don’t know what to make of Sopaj yet, and I honestly want to pick Turcios outright.
I do think Sopaj will get off to a lead because he can fight more technically, and he can land takedowns. But if he doesn’t hurt Turcios badly or submit him, I think Turcios will just fight back super hard for the remainder of the fight.
Maybe Sopaj’s cardio is much better here. Maybe not. He doesn’t really seem like the type to fight through adversity to me and getting chased around for the final five minutes was a really bad look.
Sopaj is also young and pretty small for the division. He’s not extremely experienced against this level of competition, and Turcios will have a few inches of height and reach over Sopaj.
My gut says the betting line is far too wide here, although Sopaj has some promise, there’s no real evidence to suggest he can win a war against Turcios and I think he’ll need a ton of early success to carry him through the fight.
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On DraftKings, I do think both sides are viable, largely based on the pacing and dynamic that Turcios brings to the table.
You’re just not likely to beat him without finishing him, or producing a lot of offense. I don’t think Sopaj knocks Turcios out at a high rate but I do think he could land five takedowns in a win.
That still may not be enough on a strong slate at 9k, but 3-5 takedowns, lots of control, and lots of ground strikes could get the job done. Sopaj is +170 to win ITD which is decent, but not necessarily a stand out for this price tag.
I also don’t think Sopaj will be popular, coming off that ugly loss, so that intrigues me a bit. He may not have enough in his own game to reach a top-end ceiling but in a win, I would expect plenty of offense which gives Sopaj a pretty strong floor.
Wrestling equity alone is enough to intrigue me a bit in large-fields, especially if he projects to be relatively low owned, but I do like others in this range more.
I won’t have a ton of Sopaj on this slate as I feel he’s probably overpriced for the matchup, but I don’t mind him as a pivot within this top tier based on pacing and some wrestling equity.
Turcios at 7.2k is one of my favorite cheap plays on the slate, and I will probably aim to be overweight to the field.
There are actually others in this range with promise too, so I won’t get carried away, but I love the pacing and heart of Turcios. In his two decision wins, which he was taken down a combined 13 times, Turcios still managed DK scores of 120 and 114.
He’s landing a ton of strikes in those fights, even from his back, which contributes to his upside. So it’s not like if he gets taken down here, he cannot score.
I also think he has sneaky finishing equity both on the feet and on the mat against an opponent who could be vulnerable as the fight progresses. A late 3rd round stoppage is on the table again and could give Turcios a very high ceiling.
He won’t project well though. He’s a big dog and only +550 to win ITD. He’s also not a technical fighter so there’s a possibility he just looks bad, like he did against Zahabi where he just chased Zahabi around the Octagon for 15 minutes and did nothing.
I’m not certain Sopaj can mimic the game of Zahabi though.
At least, I’m willing to take some chances. He’s cheap with huge pacing upside and sneaky finishing equity. He’s also landed multiple takedowns himself in both wins and Sopaj just got taken down a few times.
It should be a fun fight either way and I quite like Turcios for the price this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sopaj by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder
Fight Odds: Ridder -309, Meerschaert +250
Odds to Finish: -165
DraftKings Salaries: Ridder 9.1k, Meerschaert 7.1k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually very excited for this matchup between the always entertaining Gerald Meerschaert and former double ONE FC champion Reinier de Ridder.
Meerschaert is a goofy opportunistic fighter, that is the best way to describe him.
I don’t really trust him to win rounds by outstriking his opponents on the feet as he lands 3.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.47 in return. However, he is tough and willing to throw down.
He actually stunned and was tagging Makhmud Muradov on the feet quite often, which was probably Meerschaert’s best performance to date. Although he still got hit in that fight plenty himself.
I also don’t trust Meerschaert to win with top control grappling all that often. He does land 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is solid, but he only defends takedowns at 34 percent and is never really winning fights with top control. So I just don’t trust him to win rounds which is why I don’t like his process of winning fights. He did win a pretty comfortable fight with takedowns and top control in his submission win against Bryan Barberena. However, Meerschaert’s fights are usually way messier than that.
Meerschaert is very opportunistic though. I wouldn’t consider him to be a very hard hitter, although he has hurt a couple of people on the feet in his UFC career. He is a pretty dangerous submission grappler and if he gets your back on the mat, he can absolutely submit UFC level fighters. He also has a good guillotine choke.
He is coming off a win against Edmen Shahbazyan where he weathered the storm and then eventually landed a takedown and arm triangle choke. I do really respect Meerschaert as a submission artist in general.
My issue with Meerschaert is that I don’t fully trust his process of getting fighters with good TDD to the mat. He can get put in really bad positions trying to scramble to get back takes. The guy will literally give up his back hoping he can reverse position and get a dominant grappling position. That might work on tired fighters or lower level guys, but against competent grapplers that is an awful idea. Meerschaert found that out the hard way against Hermansson who murdered him with ground and pound from back mount.
Meerschaert will be facing Reinier de Ridder who will be making his UFC debut. De Ridder is 17-2 professionally and he was the middleweight and light heavyweight champion in One FC, a pretty solid MMA organization. His two losses both came to the undefeated Anatoly Malykhin where de Ridder was finished in both fights, and struggled with the physicality of Malykhin.
De Ridder is a grappler through and through. He comes from a grappling background and has a solid amount of experience on the BJJ circuit. He has fought advanced guys like Andre Galvao and Tye Ruotolo in BJJ matches.
I think De Ridder is alright. He isn’t a great wrestler, but he is tenacious and is always closing distance, looking to get takedowns, and ride the back. He has a decent top game and is a fine submission grappler. He can threaten on the back and 12 of his 17 wins have come by submission. He will also lock in body triangles. Overall, I do like the process of De Ridder and against a certain level of competition, he should rack up some wins.
However, I still just have concerns with De Ridder. He isn’t super physical or athletic. Furthermore, I don’t think his actual wrestling is great. He just relies on tenacity. That is fine and will work against many guys but eventually he will get shut down like he was against Malykhin. I also don’t think his striking is great either.
I also have seen De Ridder take sloppy shots and nearly get guillotined. He has also been put on his back and beaten up a bit in a couple of fights. I overall just see areas where UFC level guys can probably expose him.
As far as this matchup goes, I understand why De Ridder is the favorite. He is the shiny new toy in this matchup and was a double champion in another well-known organization. Furthermore, he has the wrestling and tenacity to test the 34 percent tdd rate of Meerschaert. I do think De Ridder could land some takedowns, get the back, control Meerschaert for stretches, and potentially submit him.
However, I really think this line is too wide. Meerschaert has some advantages here and paths to victory. I think Meerschaert is a more dangerous striker and is extremely opportunistic. If this stays standing, I think Meerschaert could have success.
Furthermore, De Ridder takes some very sloppy shots man, and I could see Meerschaert snagging a guillotine to either submit De Ridder or at least deter De Ridder with the threat. I am almost certain Meerschaert will threaten him with a guillotine at some point lol.
Furthermore, Meerschaert is a capable scrambler and reverser of position. I have seen De Ridder get sloppy on top and I do think Meerschaert is crafty enough to reverse De Ridder and go to work in top position. Meerschaert is particularly good at reversing position when opponents try to pass his guard and De Ridder is an aggressive passer of the guard, so I do think Meerschaert may be able to reverse position here.
I also just think Meerschaert may be tougher and have better cardio than De Ridder down the stretch. I just see a few windows and ways for Meerschaert to win.
Look, I am not confident in Meerschaert here. De Ridder may just easily land takedowns and dominate the fight. Meerschaert is very much a flawed fighter in a lot of ways. However, I just think De Ridder has some holes and Meerschaert has enough tools to put him in danger. I really think this line is wide and it is generally not a good idea to bet against Gerald Meerschaert at -300.
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On DraftKings, I do have interest in the newcomer De Ridder (RDR), as his path to victory is reliant on takedowns and control.
Meerschaert loves nothing more than giving up takedowns and control, so I think there’s a decent opportunity for RDR.
I agree with Tim that there’s some reason to be skeptical though. RDR doesn’t look like an efficient striker and it may be that he’s 100% fully dependent on top control for success. That type of game doesn’t work out often.
I’m not even sure he’s an elite grappler, but I’d classify him as strong.
The bottom line is that in this matchup, my expectation is that RDR will need a few takedowns and potentially 10+ minutes of control to win. Or a finish on the mat. He is +110 to win ITD which is pretty decent.
Meerschaert has also been dropped on the feet a bunch of times so there’s a path there, it’s just not one that’s likely given RDR’s style.
At 9.1k, RDR should at least have an opportunity to exceed value in a win. If he gasses out late and just tries to survive, then the play won’t work out. If he can find a win ITD in the first couple of rounds, he could smash.
RDR is one of the more grappling dependent fighters on this slate so I have real interest in him by default. I think it’s fine to be cautious or prioritize other fighters in this range, but RDR feels like a real quality DK target with a strong floor and moderate ceiling based on his style of fighting.
Meerschaert at 7.1k is a fine punt but he’s not a fighter I love.
He doesn’t produce many points per minute and he doesn’t have a processed game. That’s why we’ve seen him win ITD and score 77, 62 and 85. That’s not to discount his ceiling because a first-round stoppage would be excellent, but I don’t foresee that as a very realistic outcome.
Meerschaert is +350 to win ITD which is fine. He could possibly survive round one and start to take over in round two, with a late round finish. Maybe. I don’t think that is the best path to rely on but Meerschaert has pulled it off a number of times.
At 7.1k, Meerschaert is at least viable. Given some questions on RDR, I think it’s a fair strategy to include Meerschaert in your portfolio as a low-end secondary target. I won’t be too heavy personally but I’ll have a sprinkle.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: De Ridder by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Luana Pinheiro vs. Gillian Robertson
Fight Odds: Robertson -399, Pinheiro +310
Odds to Finish: -225
DraftKings Salaries: Robertson 9.2k, Pinheiro 7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Ever since coming down to strawweight, Gillian Robertson has been on a roll and she is looking to make it three in a row this weekend against Luana Pinheiro.
Grappling is all Robertson really does, and she is pretty much only going to win fights by submission or by decision with top time.
Robertson’s striking is not very good. She lands 2.83 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.96 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. The purpose of her striking is just to limit striking engagements and set up her takedowns. She isn’t going to win many rounds on the feet.
Robertson’s takedowns are pretty decent for WMMA. She has a good single leg and a lot of takedown diversity. She lands 2.48 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at a 42 percent rate. Once she gets on top, she is very dangerous and skilled as a submission grappler.
Robertson’s passing stats are off the charts. I won’t go too much into detail with them. However, she basically gets a pass or two for every takedown that she lands. So she is very capable of getting to dominant positions like back takes and locking in submissions.
I have never liked Robertson’s physicality. She sometimes has major issues when she goes against strong girls. Santos and Maverick were able to neutralize Robertson because they were much more physical than her.
However, she looks a lot bigger and stronger at strawweight and I think the drop in weight class was a great decision by her. So perhaps physicality will not be as big of an issue for her going forward and it hasn’t looked to be an issue in most of her strawweight fights.
One thing people seem to forget is that Robertson is not a good defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 41 percent and isn’t really interested in defending takedowns. It makes sense because she wants the fight on the mat anyway which is fine. However, on her back, she can actually be controlled and her get ups are not great. So she is prone to being controlled on the mat herself which is something that people probably overlook. Robertson can attack with good armbars off her back. However, she needs to be in top position to win fights, and I don’t like that she can be controlled on the mat.
Robertson will be taking on Luana Pinheiro who is coming off a submission loss to Angela Hill. Pinheiro comes from a Judo background and has a love for head and arm throws. She kept hitting that throw against Randa Markos and landed five takedowns because of it. I really don’t like those types of takedowns as it risks giving up your back. Although I think Pinheiro can land that takedown here and there, I don’t think she will take down and control above average-grapplers at this level. Her top control is just not great.
Pinheiro defends takedowns at 66 percent. I did not like what I saw against Angela Hill. In the first round, Pinheiro gave up a single leg and advances of position to Hill. Hill isn’t even known as an offensive wrestler either. Hill eventually won by guillotine choke in round two. It was a really bad look for Pinheiro overall.
As a striker, I do think Pinheiro has a little bit of power. She has hurt and finished some girls. She has decently powerful hands and some good leg kicks. However, her volume just isn’t there. In her two UFC decisions, she only landed 60 and 44 significant strikes.
Pinheiro also slows down. She can strike competitively early but I question her striking volume for a full fifteen minutes. In her matchup against Amanda Ribas, she was winning early but slowed down dramatically and got knocked out in round three. She was outlanded 87-55 in significant trikes and the discrepancy in strikes would have gotten wider had round 3 continued. She also slowed down against Hill.
Pinheiro is a threat, and is live to win early portions of fights. However, I do not trust her cardio at all and she does not strike well in volume for 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, I definitely think Robertson can finish Pinheiro on the mat. Just seeing Angela Hill grab a single leg, eventually get top position, and start advancing on Hill makes me think Robertson will absolutely destroy Pinheiro on the mat. My guess is that Robertson will eventually land some takedowns and just finish Pinheiro. Pinheiro also slows down and looks like a bit of a quitter to me.
Pinheiro could have early success though. She is the more threatening and physical striker early on in fights. However, if it doesn’t result in a knockout, I doubt she survives the ground attack of Robertson for 15 minutes. Robertson also seems tough and stays out of engagement. My guess is Robertson just eventually gets the takedowns and finishes Pinheiro on the mat.
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On DraftKings, Robertson is absolutely in play but she is expensive at 9.2k.
This is kind of a tricky spot because Robertson is always a fighter I like to target, and she has some through many times. However, she is extremely dependent on ground control and she’ll need a finish to exceed value.
My issue on this particular slate is that she’s surrounded by other elite plays. Prates, Abdul-Malik, and De Ridder could all match or exceed her score. So despite Robertson being a strong target, it’s going to be difficult to fully prioritize her.
I’m still not against the idea. Robertson is -175 to win ITD which is probably the best ITD line she’s ever had. I know Tim likes that path and it seems reasonable to me based on Pineheiro’s flaws.
Especially if I cannot pay up further, I’ll be happy to play Robertson. And she still could outscore everyone else in this range. Her top end ceiling is not necessarily elite though with scores of 102, 105 and 106, so that’s another slight concern. Ultimately if she does what she needs to, gets takedowns, and submits Pinheiro, I think she’ll score well.
The strength of this range is the main drawback to playing Robertson, but she rates out very well and has a path to ground domination, so I will likely aim to target her moderately.
Pinheiro at 7k is viable but largely because it’s a binary matchup. She’s a better striker than Robertson and should beat her on the feet, plain and simple.
But Robertson is not going to absorb a ton of strikes, and Pinheiro could still get held down. Even if Robertson is in danger, she might fall to her back, so I don’t think a standing KO is very likely.
Pinheiro is +700 to win ITD which is awful, and she’ll be tough to target much of. I think she at least carries a path to victory but I am pretty concerned by whether that path leads to a high ceiling, and therefore I think I would rather shy away for the most part.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Robertson by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dusko Todorovic
Fight Odds: Abdul-Malik -462, Todorovic +350
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Abdul-Malik 9.3k, Todorovic 6.9k
Weight Class: 185
I’m looking forward to the debut of Mansur Abdul-Malik this weekend, as he’ll take on Dusko Todorovic in a fight that doesn’t project to last very long.
Abdul-Malik is 6-0 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned five wins by TKO and one by submission, with only one of those wins coming past the first round.
Abdul-Malik is a physical force, and has generally been bombing on guys early in the first round, knocking them out. He also wrestled in college at the University of Maryland, though I don’t believe he was a standout there.
Still, you can see the wrestling technique in his game. There are only a few of his fights available but in the first one I watched, he’s immediately suplexing his opponent. One of those takedowns that makes you say “wow”.
Honestly, that describes the bulk of his game. He’s aggressive, powerful, and has KO power in his hands. He also throws some kicks. He can wrestle, and when he gets on top, he will look to murder you with ground-and-pound.
Abdul-Malik is very likely going to earn some wins in the UFC with this skill set and those wins will very likely come early.
As you might expect, the biggest question mark is cardio. Just based on profile, there’s a good chance that he’s a cardio liability late in fights.
I have seen very few minutes of action from him, but I feel pretty confident in where he stands in that realm. I have seen him hurt multiple times already, including in his recent DWCS fight.
On DWCS, the fight actually went to round two which was nice to see. Abdul-Malik was winning early, but then actually got taken down himself in the second round once he started to slow down a bit. He didn’t look great there and ate some punches.
He did get back to his feet, got on top while defending a takedown, and then just pounded the guy out. So it was nice to see him not completely gas out and die in that scenario.
Still, I’ve seen enough. The longer the fight goes, the less I will trust him. I actually don’t think he’s a complete liability in the sense of literally having no energy, and he might still be able to function throughout a full 15 minutes. But he’s clearly going to slow down and be vulnerable against an opponent who can push him.
I also don’t think he’s that great defensively in general. He stands kind of square and can be hit on the feet. He’s not awful but at some point he’ll get hurt and knocked out.
Abdul-Malik will be taking on Dusko Todorovic, who I don’t consider a great talent.
Todorovic is 3-4 in the UFC and coming off a loss in which he tore up his knee in the first round. That came in March of 2023 so he has taken plenty of time off to recover, but it’s still not a great sign.
Probably the bigger issue is that Todorovic has flaws in his actual style. He’s a tall and lengthy fighter for the middleweight division but he doesn’t use it super well, and instead has had the bulk of his success in the clinch.
He’s also a quality submission grappler but doesn’t really have the wrestling to back it up.
I’ve actually been betting against Todorovic for a while. Even dating back to when he was a favorite over Puna Soriano in 2021, I was pretty concerned about him eating power shots and Soriano just destroyed him in the first round, knocking him down multiple times.
Chidi Njokuani also knocked him out in the first round.
His wrestling has been poor too. Scrubs like Jordan Wright were able to take him down a few times, though Todorovic survived, and actually won that fight by TKO.
Todorovic is not incapable. He can throw strikes at a reasonable volume, and he’s decent in the clinch. His grappling is OK. He’s experienced.
His defense just sucks, and he leaves his chin wide open to be hit. He also can’t wrestle much which is not a good sign against Abdul-Malik.
To me, it really feels like Abdul-Malik is going to knock Todorovic out early. I wouldn’t be surprised if Abdul-Malik rushed in immediately, dumped Todorovic down, and pounded him out with punches. Or, he might just KO Todorovic standing.
I think there’s a good chance Todorovic does not survive the first round.
If he does, he’s live. Abdul-Malik can be hurt even in round one too I suppose, just due to variance and Todorovic swinging back. Abdul-Malik should have a huge physicality and wrestling edge though.
But Todorovic is probably the better sub grappler. If Abdul-Malik gets a little tired, and Todorovic ends up on top of him, Todorovic could find a submission or a TKO himself.
I highly doubt this fight goes all three rounds given the dynamic.
I lean pretty strongly toward Abdul-Malik in this spot though with obvious concerns if the fight extends. I think other matchups than Todorovic would scare me more though.
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On DraftKings, Abdul-Malik is priced up to 9.3k, and he won’t be a must just given the price tag and strength of this range.
There are a lot of big favorites on this card, and you can’t pay for them all. At the same time, Abdul-Malik is -240 to win ITD and he’s +100 to win in round one, which is a better line than Prates has.
I think there’s a very reasonable chance Abdul-Malik comes away with a first-round KO, so I do like him. It just comes with this weird territory where if he’s winning in 1.5 minutes, he probably only scores in the very low 100s and could easily miss the optimal. A late first-round finish or a one-minute finish could put him on the optimal though.
And an extended fight would very likely bust Abdul-Malik unless he’s wrestling aggressively.
You do not need to prioritize Abdul-Malik and I think spreading out your exposure makes sense, but he’s among the best options on the slate for first-round KO equity in my opinion. With his ownership possibly lower than it could be on a different slate, I don’t mind taking a fair amount of chances when I can pay up this high, and I think he’s a solid pivot directly off Prates above.
Todorovic is a fine leverage target at 6.9k.
I don’t think he’s going to win, but if he does, it probably comes ITD. He’s +400 to win ITD and shouldn’t be very popular.
There’s also just the clear path here to win ITD based on cardio. It may not be a dramatic edge, but fading power guys who only win early and haven’t lost yet is a +EV move.
I won’t go that far in this particular matchup, but I think Todorovic is at least in play at 6.9k, as he’ll score well in a win and carry leverage against Abdul-Malik. He’s still a low-end target for me and won’t be a real priority in my personal portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Abdul-Malik by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Denise Gomes
Fight Odds: Gomes -551, Kowalkiewicz +403
Odds to Finish: +165
DraftKings Salaries: Gomes 9.4k, Kowalkiewicz 6.8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Karolina Kowalkeiwicz had a bit of a late career resurgence in the last few years but had her 4-fight win streak snapped last time out against Iasmin Lucindo. She’s now 39 years old so there is some question on how many more fights she has left – she’s 9-8 in the UFC and 16-8 as a pro. Denise Gomes is a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season who’s been up and down through her first couple years in the promotion – she’s 3-2 in the UFC and 9-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Karolina is an aggressive, higher-output striker who lands 5.7 SLpM at 43%.
She’s been primarily boxing based throughout her career, but we have seen her mix in kicks more in recent years coupled with a respectable clinch game.
In her 9 UFC wins, she’s outpaced all her opponents with the exception of Juarez by a few strikes. The issue with Karolina is that despite her output, she’s struggled defensively, eating 5.6 SApM at 58%.
Conversely to her wins, she’s been outpaced in seven of her losses (Penne fight had little distance time) – a couple of them by slim margins though by girls with better output or more technical strikers.
It does need to be noted the strength of competition that Karolina has fought though.
To illustrate her L’s, she lost to two former champions, the current flyweight champion, two former title challengers, and then other top 15 girls.
So, she’s had to fight some tough girls in her run and in 2024, I think it’s fair to say that Karolina isn’t a top girl but that’s not to say she can’t still compete if not beat a healthy chunk of the division standing.
Overall, she’s strong offensively, but still struggles defensively although I have seen some maturation in recent fights in terms of moving better in and out of the pocket.
Gomes comes from a kickboxing background and was formerly out the PRVT team in Brazil – home to UFC women such as Jessica Andrade and Karol Rosa (actually the girlfriend of Rosa).
She primarily excels when she can be the girl going forward and dictating the exchanges – decent straights and clinch game coupled with low leg kicks.
She’s also shown bigger power components for 115lbs, scoring KOs in six of her nine pro Ws.
However, despite her landing a higher volume of strikes in a lot of her bouts, she has had some slower starts pre-UFC.
Her fight with Ruas was incredibly sloppy, she dropped the 1st two rounds to Dudieva who’s a judo girl (got physically dropped twice in those rounds as well), lost the 1st to Amanda in my opinion (no idea how all 3 judges gave the 1st round to Gomes there) and unfortunately, we didn’t see much stand up in the Loma fight, but she did lose the exchanges there.
She looked good against Brasil as she was able to turn it into a dog fight, eventually hurting Brasil and finishing her off via GNP.
She then obviously just blasted Jauregui in 20 seconds with a nuke, dethroning one of the better female prospects.
She struck very competitively with Hill both at distance and in the clinch, buckling her a few times so it goes to show that the girl’s a gamer on the feet.
Most recently, she got the better of the striking exchanges against Moura en route to a decision victory.
I would say her best attributes outside of raw power are that she’s a tough girl with no quit and possesses good cardio. If girls slow down on her, she will turn up the pace and break them.
However, she’s still very poor defensively despite her toughness.
Overall, she’s still green to an extent but has that dog in her.
How it plays out: I’d anticipate both girls to get off strikes, but I like Gomes on the feet. She brings that level of attritional striking that has historically given issues to Karolina in the past. Additionally, despite Karolina showing to be a tough girl throughout her career, Gomes will be one of the bigger raw power punchers that Karolina has fought to date. So I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Gomes was able to break her down and finish later on in the fight.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Karolina is a striker by nature, so she hasn’t had an overt amount of wrestling success in her run and that is reflected in her numbers as well – 0.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 23%.
However, she was able to get to the back of Herrig despite not landing a conventional TD and actually secured her 1st submission victory in nearly a decade. She was able to land some TDs on Juarez and win the 1st round that way.
Additionally, she was fine on top of Demopoulos after she pulled guard and was able to gain dominant positions early on Belbita after getting thrown.
Defensively, she stuffs at 73% which is good but when girls have grounded her in the aggregate, she’s struggled.
Gadelha took her down, got her back and subbed her fairly quickly – Waterson got a handful of TDs and some top time – Yan took her down five times and got five minutes of control – against Penne, Karolina actually took Penne down, Penne was able to work up to a body lock, land a trip, work into dominant position and finish with an armbar.
The fight IQ was probably the most alarming thing for Karolina there.
She most recently dropped some ground minutes to Lucindo as well which aided in her loss there, getting taken down twice.
So she has dropped rounds on her back before but her control against rate per TD actually isn’t terrible.
Overall, it does appear that Karolina’s ground game has been a point of progression since moving to American Top Team in the last few years, but I still have my concerns if she’s grounded by more capable ground fighters.
Outside of being an aggressive striker, Gomes has a grappling background and reps a BJJ brown belt.
She got controlled a decent amount early by Dudieva after being hurt, but Dudieva lost position eventually and Gomes got some control time.
She’s landed a few TDs here and there but with little technical prowess and she more so just uses her strength.
On DWCS, she attempted no TDs as she was fighting a base grappler – Amanda went 1/4 on TDs but couldn’t establish any ground control.
In the Loma fight, she got thrown four times and had all her TDs stuffed – but both girls reversed positions and got into dominant positions as well. But Loma did get the better of the grappling exchanges.
Gomes went 3/3 on TDs against Brasil but the bulk of her control did come against the fence – Brasil also has poor TDD. She had some early success on Hill, putting her in a tricky spot but was ultimately bested on the floor, conceding five TDs and eight minutes of control in the fight.
Most recently, she was taken down five times and controlled for 6.5 minutes by Moura, but shucked off 21 other attempts and was able to reverse position times to get some minutes of her own.
Overall, I’ve seen her get her back taken in multiple fights and doesn’t appear to have the best TDD in the world. However, she’s never been submitted before and is semi-capable from top positions, but her offensive wrestling isn’t particularly strong.
How it plays out: I don’t have a passionate opinion on the ground here as we’ve seen both girls concede some bottom minutes before and realize some top success of their own. It’s more of just a game planning thing with both girls in terms of how much they actually want to grapple which I just don’t have a great gauge on. I’d assume the fight will largely take place on the feet.
I’ve always been a fan of both girls as they traditionally come to fight and throw down. While there’s aspects of their respective games to have back and forth exchanges, there’s just a clear power difference in the matchup to where Gomes has the large bulk of finishing equity and the one who’s going to land the more impactful shots in an extended fight. It’s also pretty difficult to ignore the massive age with Gomes only being 24 years old and Karolina at 39. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Karolina hung up the gloves with a loss on Saturday. I like the more youthful Gomes to get the job done.
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On DraftKings, this is one of the tougher ones for me to call.
Gomes is extremely expensive at 9.4k, in what I’d consider to be a very strong range. The fight is also -210 to go the distance, and without Gomes being a primary wrestler, you can argue that she’s just not worth it.
However, she’s shown a legit ceiling, scoring 133 and 132 in two of her wins, though one came with a QWB. Also, this fight could take place at a super high pace, which bodes well for both floor and ceiling.
Karolina, even in her recent win over Belbita, gave up 99 sig. strikes and two takedowns. She gave up 148 sig. strikes to Grasso in a loss. She gave up five takedowns to Xiaonan.
There’s a really good chance that in a win, Gomes produces a lot of offense. My projection would only be something like 80-100 sig. strikes and a couple of takedowns, which isn’t enough, but if she can couple that with a finish, her ceiling is legit.
I guess that’s the difficult part in that ultimately, she’ll need a finish. And Gomes is only +165 to win ITD which isn’t strong compared to some others in this range. It’s not awful though.
I’m also slightly concerned for Karolina about the power component, like I can picture Gomes just smashing her in a high-paced first round and finding a TKO. I still don’t think I can pay up to her often at all, but I wouldn’t say she’s an outright fade.
I don’t think the public will pay up for Gomes often either at 9.4k, so she’ll be a contrarian option, and/or a direct pivot off of Prates. It’s an uphill battle to be optimal so she’s not the worst fighter to X out with a limited portfolio, but I do love the pacing of this fight and I think Gomes has some viability in that sense.
Karolina at 6.8k could reasonably outstrike Gomes in a decision.
She’s had some crazy high-volume performances over the years, with strike totals like 119, 127, 126, 139 and 141. Gomes is more power based and probably wins the optics, but Karolina is higher volume and more experienced. If she can reach a number like 130 ss, she could top 80 points for a super cheap price tag.
I don’t think she has any real finishing equity though at +1400 ITD, and that’s one major drawback.
She’s 6.8k though, so you could do worse as a punt. I think Karolina is in play for cash games given her style and the -210 odds to go the distance. She has some round-winning equity. It’s honestly not the worst tournament play if you’re going stars and scrubs, hoping that most dogs on this slate lose.
But it’s not a fantastic spot either and Karolina won’t rate out well from an upside standpoint. Just a low-end sprinkle/price play on occasion if you need to pay down.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gomes by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Gaston Bolanos vs. Cortavious Romious
Fight Odds: Romious -201, Bolanos +171
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Romious 8.7k, Bolanos 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Cortavious Romious is a Contender Series alum from this past season who earned a contract back in August. He’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday – he’s 9-2 as a pro. Gaston Bolanos was a long-time member of the Bellator roster who got the call over to the UFC back in April of 2023. He’s since 1-1 in the promotion and is 7-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Romious’ striking background but he’s a compact 135er, standing 5’4” with a 68” reach.
The best way to classify him would be as a burst striker. He’s got some solid body kicks at range which we saw hurt Imperato in his last Contender Series outing, but he’s not a consistent distance volume machine.
He’s more so looking to time his openings to come in a barrage of strikes.
Ironically, he only has two pro wins via KO/TKO though he does hit hard and commits to his strikes. I partially attribute that to him not being the most technically proficient guy, and he can telegraph his entries or overcommit in his combinations.
It’s in that chaotic pocket nature to where he’s been the most susceptible as he keeps his head on the center line – Tavares made him pay for that in his first Contender Series appearance, scoring a 29 second KO.
He also had some struggles with the length of Jornel Lugo in his first pro loss back in 2020 where he was out struck at distance despite the fight being slower paced – Romious had his blitzes though.
Overall, Romious is still rather unrefined as a striker and his style is going to lead to more boom or bust performances on the feet.
Bolanos comes from a muay thai and kickboxing background where he had 50 fights in the discipline before moving over to MMA full time six years ago.
He’ll fight out of both stances but does favor orthodox more than southpaw.
He tends to fight at a more tepid pace within the mid-range, firing straight shots and has shown pretty sound leg kicks which have compromised opponents before. We’ve also seen him play within the pressure game where he’ll rip off some bigger combos within the pocket.
Bolanos primarily falls more into the technical KO artist category, with six of his seven pro wins coming via KO/TKO, and he’s been known for his spinning elbow KOs not only within MMA but dating back to his muay thai career as well.
Defensively, he’s good at range but I do have issues with him though within the pocket as can fight with his hands down at times.
We saw him get hurt badly in his 1st pro loss with a wheel kick against Laroca, which started the beginning of the end, and he struggled with the calculated pressure of McGhee in his last outing and was eventually TKO’d.
But in a vacuum, he hasn’t faced much volume back his way as he’s largely been able to manage the exchanges in his fights.
Overall, Bolanos has shown good technical prowess standing and is dangerous but he’s not a guy you can really trust to get far ahead on minutes if he’s fighting a more mobile striker. He’ll most likely be a 60 SS ceiling type of guy in extended fights.
How it plays out: There’s some variance in the stand up as both guys have shown the ability to hurt opponents and be hurt themselves. But I would ultimately favor Bolanos standing as the more experienced/technical striker in the matchup. As noted, he doesn’t push a particularly high pace but minute to minute, Romious doesn’t either. I just think a lot of what Romious throws is pretty telegraphed and that’s going to open up counter shots for Bolanos when he comes in.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Romious is a BJJ purple belt and a pretty physically strong guy at the weight class.
However, the ground has been up and down for him over the years.
I don’t think he’s anything special as a wrestler, but he’s shown good double legs and the ability to do some work on the floor. He can rack up extensive minutes of control in addition to throwing bigger ground and pound. He’s also shown he can take the back in certain outings as well.
But he’s a guy who can also lose position in attacking things, and has had some defensive wrestling struggles in the past – Lugo was ultimately able to best him on the ground in that matchup despite Romious realizing some success as well.
Romious has shown a dangerous guard though as he’ll attack the triangle/armbar series and has five submission wins on the rap sheet.
Overall, he’s a capable ground fighter who can expose guys who don’t come proper, but I’m still not the biggest fan of “armbar fighters” and he can probably be outwrestled himself by guys of a better ground tier at the UFC level.
I’m unsure of Bolanos’ grappling credentials but the ground has been where his primary career struggles have come. Our overall sample isn’t large, but it’s been how he’s lost all three of his pro fights.
As noted above, Laroca did hurt him badly which forced a TD shot from Bolanos where he got wrapped up in triangle – a bit more forgivable.
In the 1st Carey fight, nothing much happened – Carey grabbed a hold of his neck in a clinching position, but Bolanos didn’t fight hands – Carey jumped the gilly and got it.
In his last Bellator loss to Hatley Jr, he by and large got wrestled and/or stuck against the fence for the majority of fight minutes.
He originally did better in working up from the TDs but did get extensively controlled on the ground in the 2nd – he also got mounted but worked out of it. The ultimate takeaway was that he just generally struggled to keep space in that fight. He avenged his loss to Carey, KOing him later, but there was no grappling in that fight.
In his debut against Phillips, he got taken down three times on five attempts, got his back taken in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and conceded six minutes of control time – he did work up and out of bad positions though.
Most recently, McGhee went 1/3 on TDs and got nearly two minutes of control but parts of that came against the fence and Bolanos was able to work up but ate damage in the process.
Overall, the floor hasn’t been great for Bolanos and it’s a component of his game that he’s going to need to sure up at a more rapid rate now fighting at the UFC level.
How it plays out: This is where the fight favors Romious. As noted, I don’t think he’s a “great” wrestler or jiu-jitsu guy, but he will be the better floor player and also physically stronger than Bolanos. His build is ironically similar to Solo Hatley who beat Bolanos back in 2020. So, I think with the correct game plan from Romious, he should be able to secure TDs in this fight, accrue top minutes and maybe find a finish. With all that being said, Bolanos has still shown he can put up resistance to the TDs and get back to his feet so he will make Romious work for grappling.
Really weird matchup. The best way I can describe Romious at this point is an unmolded ball of clay. I think he’s a got a lot of solid attributes that can translate into him being a decent UFC fighter. I still don’t think his game is completely put together yet though and has his own clear flaws. On the other side with Bolanos, he’s been relatively inactive over the last four years and has a style that I’m not the biggest fan of analytically – tepid, technical striker who’s got power but not a great minute-based fighter with grappling flaws. Long story short, it’s a matchup that has variance associated with it, but I lean to Romious for grappling upside.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest in this matchup for finishing equity.
I’m actually pretty wary of Romious, and I don’t think he’s a great talent. He’s small, and not super technical. I think he’s probably being overvalued here.
With that said, he’s a fast-twitched fighter who has power and will also try to wrestle. I think there’s a good chance a win either comes from damage, or grappling, and it could result in a finish. He is +100 to win ITD in this matchup which is strong for the price.
That’s really all there is to say in regards to his DraftKings situation. He’s definitely not a fighter I trust, and I’m not that sure he wins. But he’s aggressive, priced well, and has upside within his style.
At 8.7k, I think Romious is a pretty decent target for finishing equity, and I think he’ll fit nicely into some more mid-range builds. I wouldn’t aim to be too aggressive with him in comparison to the field though.
Bolanos at 7.5k interests me a little bit.
I don’t like him as much as some other dogs on the slate because I don’t think he’s a great talent and I worry about his paths to victory. I do think he’s the better pure striker here though, and Romious was knocked out in less than 30 seconds in his first DWCS fight.
I wouldn’t put it past Bolanos to hurt Romious and score a knockout. Bolanos is +250 to win ITD which is pretty decent for the price.
I highly doubt Bolanos is getting played by the public this week. And without a knockout, his ceiling isn’t even that great. He scored 64 points in a decision in his UFC debut.
So I wouldn’t call Bolanos a priority in any fashion. But he might carry some leverage against Romious and he might be undervalued, with some sneaky finishing equity. He’s an interesting tournament mix-in as a spot to be more unique, but I’d still label him a low-end target overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Romious by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Zachary Scroggin
Fight Odds: Zaleski -679, Scroggin +475
Odds to Finish: Under 2.5 -175
DraftKings Salaries: Zaleski 8k, Scroggin 6.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After his original opponent Nicolas Dalby withdrew this week, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has a new opponent in Zachary Scroggin who will be making his UFC debut on short notice.
Zaleski is a very experienced fighter and has been around for a very long time. Zaleski is a bit of a freestyle fighter. He can strike a bit and is a decent submission grappler.
Zaleski lands 4.30 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.42 in return. He will use punches and kicks on the feet and he has some good striking diversity, and will use other tools like knees. He also has power and is capable of knocking out and hurting opponents. Overall, I just consider Zaleski an experienced striker who is somewhat dangerous.
Zaleski only lands 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes though and isn’t a great wrestler. He is a skilled grappler though and can threaten with submissions. He did recently land four takedowns in his last fight against Randy Brown though. So he showed he can take down UFC level fighters if he persistently pursues that path.
Zaleski also defends takedowns at a solid 68 percent and has good scrambling ability. He mostly nullified Fakretdinov’s wrestling attack which was impressive. Zaleski overall just doesn’t have a ton of holes and I consider him a solid, well-schooled fighter.
At this point, I think my main concern with him is his age. He is 37 years old and certainly will not make his way in the top 10 of this division. A sharp decline will also likely happen relatively soon. However, he is still competing fine against UFC level competition.
Zaleski will welcome Zachary Scroggin to the cage who will be making his UFC debut. Scroggin is 28 years old and is 7-0 professionally. He has fought terrible competition in FAC which is a regional promotion based in Independence, Missouri. I do not want to make this about me, but I am actually familiar with this promotion as I am a Missouri boy myself and the promotion is run by people that I know in the wrestling / BJJ world in Missouri and Kansas. The gym where I practice BJJ weekly generally has fighters fight in this promotion, and to put it nicely the fighters are extremely low level. So to sum it up, Scroggin has fought awful competition and is very unproven.
I think Scroggin’s best asset is that he is HUGE. He is 6’3” and is a really big guy for welterweight. Other than that though, I don’t think Scroggin looks very good on tape. His fights have come vs awful competition so it is hard to completely evaluate him. However, he generally just takes down shitty opponents and finishes them on the mat.
The issue is I don’t think Scroggin has great wrestling. In his most recent fight against a 19-14 opponent, he struggled getting takedowns at times. I have also seen him taken down and held on his back as well. My guess is that his grappling is just not up to par to UFC level competition.
I also just don’t think Scroggin is a very good striker either. He is just not very fast or technical, and looks a bit awkward and unathletic on the feet. He did at least spam some leg kicks in a recent matchup, but it was against a very bad opponent, and I am skeptical that his striking is up to par with UFC level competition.
It is just hard to fully trust Scroggin. His competition has been awful and when I evaluate him, I do not know where he can thrive at the UFC level.
As far as this matchup goes, I just have to go with the more experienced fighter in Zaleski here. There is a good chance that he is a better fighter in all areas than Scroggin. He can probably beat him up on the feet or land takedowns. I honestly don’t think I can objectively say Scroggin is more skillful in any area. My guess is Zaleski will just be winning this fight wherever it takes place.
I have no idea if it will result in a finish for Zaleski. Scroggin seems semi tough but he has never really been tested so I have no idea how he will act when put through adversity. However, this could very well be a “levels” fight where Zaleski is so much more skilled that a finish eventually occurs.
I think the best hope for Scroggin is that he is much younger and bigger than Zaleski. Perhaps that size and youth can carry him to being competitive in this matchup. Maybe Scroggin is just better than I am giving him credit for too and is making improvements. However, I still will have to see Scroggin prove it to me at this level and for now the safe pick is Zaleski.
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On DraftKings, Zaleski should be the most popular play on the entire slate as he’s priced at 8k and is now lined north of -600 to win.
My read on Scroggin is that he has a nice frame for distance striking – he will throw out lots of kicks and looks mildly dangerous in that area. However, I’m pretty confident the overall striking technique is not there and that usually ties into defensive issues as well.
His wrestling doesn’t look great to me either. I think he will struggle to defend and will give up position. He might be OK enough to survive or submit someone low-level.
Zaleski is aging, has been knocked down a few times and doesn’t always wrestle, so it’s always tough to label something as a guarantee. I do think Zaleski can take him down, and potentially take his back and choke him out. I also think he could beat Scoggin up over the duration, so I’m fine with the line in general.
ITD odds are not out yet but the Under on 2.5 rounds is -185, and Zaleski could approach something like -700 or -800 to win by fight night. He should be one of the biggest favorites on this slate outside of Prates with a strong ITD line overall.
He has not been the best fantasy scorer though. He’s won in the UFC 10 times and he’s only topped 100 points twice. He has recent decision wins of 49, 97, 72, 70 and 71.
I would say his chances of reaching a ceiling are higher here than his average matchup, as he could wrestle more and have a better chance to win ITD. But there’s a reasonable chance if the fight extends, Zaleski could put up a mid-80s type score.
At heavy chalk ownership, that’s where things get tricky.
Zaleski will be a super easy cash target, and the smaller the field, the better play he is for tournaments as you won’t necessarily need the optimal. In large fields, there is some merit to pivoting away.
There isn’t a lot of safety in this range but it’s possible Zaleski looks good, wins, and just doesn’t put up a top-6 score. I think it’s a pretty strong way to be unique honestly, especially considering Zaleski has not been the most active wrestler longterm.
But he’s going to rate out exceptionally well for this price, and I think it’s totally fine to play him around the field average which I expect will probably be in the 60 percent range. If you’re doing this, it may be worth being conscious of your constructions overall and perhaps looking to be unique elsewhere. Saving salary is also more viable on this slate than usual, considering we get the “free square” in Zaleski.
Scroggin is priced in at 6.7k. I don’t love him. I don’t think he will land much volume and I don’t think he’ll have success grappling. You’re probably just hoping for one random, big moment early that finishes the fight.
There are enough live underdogs that I would much rather chase others personally. The real benefit to Scroggin is the leverage he will carry against Zaleski. If you want to punt with him a very small amount in large fields for that reason alone, that’s fine. I just don’t love the set up for Scroggin or the talent, so I’ll likely fade him with a smaller portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zaleski by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Charles Radtke
Fight Odds: Radtke -160, Semelsberger +138
Odds to Finish: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Radtke 8.5k, Semelsberger 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Charles Radtke bypassed the Contender Series in 2023 on the heels of winning the CFFC welterweight title – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 9-4 as a pro. Matthew Semelsberger also bypassed the Contender Series in 2020 and has been a hit or miss fighter within the promotion – he’s 5-5 in the UFC and 11-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Radtke’s a grappler by base but a guy who likes to stand and strike a healthy amount as well.
He’s not the best athlete or fastest guy in the world, but he does the basics well between his straight punches and cheeky short left hook which is his best strike – he’s put three guys out cold with it now and hurt Diamond in his debut as well.
I’d say his pacing is about average to slightly above – not a guy that you can project to go and put on a super high pace though. He will move his head off the center line which I like but can also be a linear fighter at the same time.
He’s historically been durable to the head but has been put down with body shots in both his pro finish losses. I have seen him briefly wobbled on a few other occasions though, but he has recovered.
Generally, Radtke is a guy that’s won the majority of exchanges in his fights with the exception of Hubbard and Prates. Diamond got the better of the clinch striking but Radtke did better work in space.
He more recently walked down Urbina, picked his shots and put him down. The length and dynamic striking of Prates gave him bigger issues though.
Overall, for a base grappler, Radtke got some decent hands and not someone opponents can sleep on standing. But his lack of athleticism and rigidness in his game will run him into some issues now at the UFC level.
Semelsberger falls more into the brooding striker category and is a longer guy for the division, possessing a 75” reach. He largely plays the mid-range/pressure game working a more boxing orientated style with bigger power components.
Five of his 11 pro wins have come via strikes and has scored 10 knockdowns through 10 UFC fights – pretty unreal ratio.
He completely flatlined both Witt and Sano but we know Witt isn’t a durable fighter at this point and Sano isn’t a UFC caliber fighter.
However, he dropped Morono with a flying knee in the 3rd round, but Morono was able to recover — dropped Matthews in each round – significantly hurt Wells at the start of the 1st and 2nd rounds – and more recently clocked Medic early but also couldn’t finish.
He’s also shown to be higher-ish output landing 3.8 SLpM at 43% and 5.1 DLpM at 40%. I say “higher-ish” because there have also been points of passivity in certain spots/fights.
Despite his length, he’s not good defensively, eating 4.2 SApM at 54% and 5.9 DApM at 57%.
He was outworked in his outing against Khaos Williams but despite losing a UD, it was a competitive fight – he also didn’t get KO’d by Williams who’s known for possessing big power components which needs to be noted.
His fight against Fletcher didn’t have a ton of distance time but it was pretty competitive there. He just got outworked by Morono in a high-paced affair but still landed 74 SS.
The Matthews fight was interesting because despite the chaotic knockdowns, it was actually fought at a slower pace and Semelsberger did have some issues with the counter boxing of Matthews.
Wells didn’t really have much for him. He looked good in the 1st half of the Medic fight, but Medic’s range and kicking started to break down Semelsberger as the fight progressed and he eventually succumbed to a spinning back elbow later in the fight.
Most recently, the distance strikes were competitive with Parsons, but he was busier, specifically earlier on in the striking exchanges.
Overall, Semelsberger isn’t a technical wizard but he’s super dangerous entering/within the pocket and despite his defensive flaws, I still regard him as a durable fighter.
How it plays out: The stand up has some volatility here. The primary talking point is really the jab and check hook of Radtke versus the straight right of Semelsberger. While I’d anticipate Radtke to have success in landing those shots, it’s really been more mobile/higher volume guys that won’t stand in front of Semelsberger to have given him his bigger issues standing. Radtke’s a bit more flat footed/rigid in his approach to where his style is more conducive to Semelsberger realizing success. Additionally, despite Semelsberger having troubles getting guys out of there, I think he has more damage equity on the feet and is the more durable fighter of the two in this matchup which pushes me to favoring him on the feet.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Radtke’s a BJJ black belt and a guy that has competed regularly in this BJJ world outside of MMA.
Offensively, he’s shown to be a serviceable wrestler when he chooses to pursue and has shown largely sound control components on the ground – specifically in being able to take the back.
Ironically, he only has two submission wins as a pro but made his last one look pretty seamless against an undefeated Raheam Forest at the time.
Even in his loss to Montalvo, Radtke was dominating that fight in the grappling prior to the liver shot.
However, he really struggled to take down Diamond in his debut which is concerning considering Diamond has consistently struggled on the floor in his pro career.
Defensively, he’s had issues though against better wrestlers, specifically Chris Gonzalez back in Bellator – no shame as Gonzalez is a ranked guy. He also had some struggles with back takes against Piersma – a fight he probably should have lost to be honest.
But if opponents can’t lock body triangles down on him, he does a good job of being able to scramble up to the feet or work back to top positions. Overall, the ground has been up and down for Radtke.
Semelsberger has had some struggles on the ground historically.
He’s dropped rounds in multiple fights back on the regionals where he was taken down and controlled extensively.
On his back, I don’t want to say he’s lost because he will attempt some submissions but when they’re defended, he doesn’t seem to have much process after that.
In the UFC, the sample for him defensively hasn’t been large but he did drop the 1st round on the floor to Fletcher getting controlled extensively, but Semelsberger was actually able to get on top in the latter rounds and win on control/GNP — did get caught in a couple submission attempts in the process but was able to work out.
He got washed on the ground by Wells where he was taken down six times and controlled for 11+ minutes.
He most recently had struggles again with the attritional grinding of Parsons, getting taken down seven times and controlled for 6.5 minutes.
Offensively, he landed a couple TDs in his debut against Minus, but his overall control was relatively limited. He landed one on Morono but didn’t control extensively.
He had some top success with Matthews, but part of that was just Matthews looking to recover – we also know Matthews isn’t great if you put him on his back. He also had abbreviated points of success in his last couple against Medic and Parsons but not much notable.
Overall, I’d still classify the ground as a weakness in his game stuffing at 45% but he has shown some better things in the UFC in comparison to his regional days.
How it plays out: This is where I’d see more merit to Radtke as I feel he’s the better wrestler and grappler of the two. The issue I have is that Radtke isn’t a volume wrestler like some of the other guys that Semelsberger has dropped rounds and fights to. Additionally, I feel Semelsberger is going to be the physically stronger guy in these tie ups so that alone may stunt some of Radtke’s upside. However, if he’s able to solidify positions, I can see Radtke racking up some ground minutes. Him submitting Semelsberger doesn’t seem very high percentage. If Radtke can’t solidify positions though, Semelsberger has some scrambling upside.
Interesting fight. While I think Radtke has grappling upside, I don’t anticipate him to realize the success that Wells or Parsons did, and he doesn’t have the footwork of some of the other strikers that have troubled Semelsberger. I feel Semelsberger has more damage/KO upside in the matchup and also, in Radtke’s style, I think Semelsberger will be able to get off more. Semelsberger is kind of a bonehead so it’s not a passionate opinion, but he will be my pick to win.
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On DraftKings, this is a tricky mid-range fight but one that could be useful with 75% of this range being wiped out due to cancellations.
The fight is also -135 to end inside the distance – not incredible finishing equity but some.
Radtke is priced at 8.5k, and I don’t have the best feeling about him. My biggest issue with him entering the UFC was that his biggest strength is his grappling, but he doesn’t use it enough and primarily wants to box.
And based on what I’ve seen from Radtke in the UFC, he’s not someone we can rely on to wrestle. I do think there’s upside within the matchup for him there, but it’s tough to project a lot of success.
Otherwise, he’ll need to box in the pocket and knock Semelsberger out. It’s possible, but Semelberger is bigger and I don’t feel great about that outcome either.
Overall, I’d classify Radtke as someone with upside, but probably a boom or bust profile and my lean is against him reaching a ceiling. He’s +215 to win ITD and projects OK, but I am primarily interested in using him as a price play, when I am forced into this range.
If you have a large enough portfolio to work with, then Radtke is a pretty easy click near the field percentage, so you don’t have to sweat the fight massively. Get some exposure for upside and move on. With a limited portfolio, I lean toward coming in light.
Semelsberger at 7.7k is similar in what I’d aim to do in comparison to the field.
With a larger portfolio, he’s an easy secondary target and that’s where I’d use him while not taking a major stance against the field.
I don’t think he has much wrestling upside here, which is an issue. His KD rate has been incredible but he’s somewhat inconsistent, with inconsistent cardio as well. His ITD line is strong though at +215.
His box scores aren’t great either as he’s lost four out of his last five fights, so I think the public will just play Zaleski and drop down in salary. When he’s won, he’s largely smashed, but again it’s been aided by KDs.
I can’t say I love Semelsberger as he’s probably dependent on a knockout, and I don’t feel amazing about his chances. But there’s a decent chance these guys trade and Semelsberger definitely carries power. He’s a solid secondary target all things considered but this isn’t a fight I’m looking to be aggressive with in comparison to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Semelsberger by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cody Stamann vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
Fight Odds: Blackshear -272, Stamann +224
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Blackshear 8.9k Stamann 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here between Da’Mon Blackshear and Cody Stamann.
Blackshear is coming off a quick knockout loss to Montel Jackson. Even though I consider Blackshear a fine fighter, he is actually 2-4 in the UFC although his losses have come against stellar competition.
Although he’s a bit of a freestyle fighter, I mostly consider Blackshear a grappler. He lands 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, and is capable of landing takedowns and threatening with submissions. I think in the UFC, he will generally make a career of murking weak grapplers on the mat like he did to Jose Johnson.
I also think Blackshear is an okay defensive grappler. He only defends takedowns at 66 percent. However, when he fought Farid Basharat, he was taken down three times and only controlled for five minutes. He always just does a good job of resisting to a degree. He also nearly submitted Basharat at the end of round three, so he is clearly submission capable and tricky.
On the feet, I don’t think Blackshear is that great, but he isn’t awful. He is a decent athlete and can land strikes in bursts. He was outlanded at distance against Basharat 42-36, and at least struck competitively in some of the exchanges. I do question his ability to volume strike though as he slowed down and started getting landed on badly against Youseff Zalal in round three.
He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.14 in return. He is competent on the feet, but I am more comfortable with him winning fights when he is having success with his grappling.
Blackshear will be taking on UFC veteran Cody Stamann. A good way to describe Cody Stamann is solid. He has a solid game and isn’t weak anywhere. Although I do not think he is necessarily great anywhere either.
Stamann is a decent striker. He lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.89, and has fought good competition. He defends strikes at 60 percent. Those are pretty decent numbers. He has some decent hands and can mix in occasional kicks.
However, Stamann doesn’t really have much power. Stamann has had 37 rounds in the UFC and has only landed two knockdowns.
Stamann is also a solid wrestler coming from a wrestling pedigree. He has a good blast double leg. He lands 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 76 percent.
Overall, I just consider Stamann a competent UFC fighter. He is very experienced. He has good cardio and can generally strike and grapple offensively. He is also very durable and has never been knocked out in his career. He has been submitted twice but by elite competition in Aljamain Sterling and Said Nurmagomedov.
I have historically liked Stamann. However, I do think his age and recent form concerns me a bit. He is going to be 35 on fight night (yes, he will be a birthday boy when he fights in the cage this weekend). I also think he underperformed against Taylor Lapilus.
Still though, I think Stamann has what it takes to be competitive against Da’Mon Blackshear. Stamann is just very experienced and tough, and can probably extend this fight. I honestly think Stamann has better cardio than Blackshear and can have success later in this fight too.
On the feet, I think this is very competitive. Stamann is probably more durable standing than Blackshear and could have an advantage standing in the latter stages of this fight. Stamann honestly may be more comfortable on the feet too. Blackshear may be a little more explosive early though. I really think the striking will just be back and forth.
I do think Blackshear is a better submission grappler though. I think he is more likely to get a submission or at least get a good position on the mat like a back take.
However, Stamann is not easy to wrestle. I think Blackshear will struggle to take and hold Stamann down easily. Maybe Blackshear gets some control with a back take. However, is Blackshear really going to easily take Stamann down and keep him there? I honestly don’t think he will. Merab attempted 11 takedowns on Stamann, only landed five and only obtained 1:42 of control. Furthermore, I actually think Stamann could take Blackshear down too. I don’t think Stamann can do anything to Blackshear on the mat though. So overall I do think Blackshear has more theoretical grappling upside.
Honestly, I see this being a back and forth fight. I think the striking will be competitive. I think both guys can land takedowns but will probably struggle holding the other down. So this line seems a bit wide to me.
I did ultimately pick Blackshear. I think he is more likely to get a good position on the mat or obtain a submission here. So he does have more grappling upside. He is also younger than Stamann, and I do worry that Stamann is not the fighter he once was.
Still though, this very well may be a close fight and I do expect Stamann to resist Blackshear and not back down.
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On DraftKings, I am not super interested in this fight compared to others on the slate, just given the chance it goes the distance and is semi-competitive.
Blackshear is priced up to 8.9k and he’s amongst my least favorite plays in this top range. That’s not to say he can’t have success, but I’m definitely not betting on him to knock Stamann out, and I don’t think a submission will come easily either.
With that said, Blackshear did lose a recent decision where he would have scored 95 points if he’d gotten his hand raised. His theoretical floor is decent in a win if he can land some takedowns.
This is a tough range though and I am expecting some smash scores. Blackshear is only +285 to win ITD is just a tough guy with well-rounded skills. Blackshear’s best hope for a ceiling is probably jumping on the neck in round one.
If you want to play some of Blackshear for that purpose, as a semi-contrarian target, go for it. But I don’t think I will get to him often with a limited portfolio.
Stamann at 7.3k is viable.
He’s always more of a floor guy than a ceiling guy. In his last five losses, he’s scored 30 or more four times (with the other being a first-minute sub loss). So if you need a cash game punt, I think Stamann has viability.
I also think he has some win equity. It’s possible he’s the outright better striker here, and the better wrestler. He won’t be the more dangerous grappler but it’s very possible Stamann could win a couple of close rounds, and that could come with takedowns.
Blackshear has been taken down by four of his last six opponents, and projecting Stamann for mild wrestling equity makes sense.
At the same time, I think the most realistic win condition for Stamann is like two takedowns and 60 significant strikes. That would probably put him into the low 70s.
Stamann is only +900 to win ITD so it’s hard to get too excited by him in terms of a ceiling. There aren’t easy winners in this range but if we do get winners, I think we could see some bigger scores.
So again, I consider Stamann more of a floor target than anything else. I think he’s a fine, low-end secondary target for salary saving purposes and I probably will mix him in a bit. But I won’t get too carried away.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blackshear by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tresean Gore vs. Antonio Trocoli
Fight Odds: Gore -169, Trocoli +145
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Gore 8.6k, Trocoli 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
A disgusting matchup in every capacity, Tresean Gore will return to the Octagon after two years away to face Mackenzie Dern’s boyfriend Antonio Trocoli.
Trocoli made his UFC debut this past June, on short notice against Shara Magomedov, and lost by third round TKO which wasn’t a crazy surprise. He’s now 12-4 professionally at age 33, earning three wins by KO and five by submission.
Trocoli is a tough fighter to analyze. He has fought three times since 2018. The most recent appearance prior to his UFC debut was three years ago against some scrub who Trocoli choked out quickly.
Prior to that, he earned a contract on DWCS with another quick sub, and prior to that, Trocoli won a couple of regional fights by decision which are not viewable.
Prior to that, Trocoli was fighting really strong competition in Legacy FC, but that was in 2016. He lost decisions there to UFC vets Dhiego Lima and Jacob Volkmann. Then he has several wins prior to that but they were in 2014 so it barely matters.
In his UFC debut, Trocoli actually performed well in the first couple of rounds, in the sense of neutralizing Magomedov who is a super dangerous range striker. Trocoli attempted seven takedowns in the first two rounds and had about 4.5 minutes of control time against the cage, but he couldn’t really manage any offense and he never actually landed any takedowns.
In round three, he was pretty tired and Magomedov just swarmed him with a few strikes which allowed the ref to step in for the stoppage.
At this point, I don’t have a great feeling about Trocoli as a prospect. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and that seems to be his strength. He’s also super tall for the division at 6’5”, and I think that could come into play in this matchup, as he’ll be five inches taller than Gore with five extra inches of reach.
My guess at this point is that his grappling is good enough to beat weak competition, but I doubt his ceiling is much better than that. I haven’t seen anything to suggest he’s a very technical wrestler, and he’s probably defensively liable.
He’s largely survived all his fights though, with the exception of one TKO loss which was a RD 2 retirement, and this most recent TKO loss which wasn’t a horrible beatdown, so honestly, he might be good enough to hang around for a while in fights.
His length could definitely pose a problem for some on the feet. He just doesn’t seem to be a major power threat, and I wouldn’t bet on great minute winning ability. But I’ve seen very little helpful tape and am open to changing my mind once we gather more data.
Tresean Gore first came into the UFC in 2022 when he fought in the TUF finale against Bryan Battle, and lost a decision.
After that, he was knocked out cold by Cody Brundage in one of Brundage’s only legitimate UFC wins. And most recently, he won by guillotine against Josh Fremd in October 2022.
The best thing about Gore is his athletic base. He’s a physical fighter and that does give him an advantage over many opponents. He seemingly carries a lot of punching power, and we saw that in his TUF bout against Urbina as well.
Gore mostly sat back and countered in that matchup, but whenever he connected, he hurt and dropped Urbina. Eventually Gore knocked him out in the second round.
That physicality also helps Gore wrestle, though I haven’t seen enough exchanges to feel confident one way or the other. He defended against Battle briefly and was credited with a couple takedowns of his own, but couldn’t do anything with them. He also got taken down briefly by Brundage but scrambled up pretty quickly. He landed a few takedowns against Fremd as well but didn’t do much with them and Fremd is awful.
I really do just have concerns about his low-output style. Even Urbina was having success in the interim while Gore wasn’t landing those big shots. It’s not a technical issue, but more of a pace issue.
Against Battle, Gore just let him throw at a higher pace for the entire fight. The rare times Gore threw, he connected and landed cleanly. Throwing at a higher pace would give him a real chance to win rounds and damage opponents.
And now that we’ve seen him KO’d, it makes his style harder to rely on. Currently, it feels like we can only trust the damage part of his game.
My other issue with Gore is that he’s pulled out of more pro fights than he’s actually competed in. Since 2019, he’s pulled out of six fights that I can count, while only competing four times, plus another two exhibitions on TUF if you want to count those.
I just don’t really trust that he’s in the gym making progress, and I don’t love his lower-volume style. He hasn’t shown much minute winning ability and his level of competition has been mediocre.
Gore definitely has a decent athletic base, some power, and maybe some base wrestling but he’s someone I’d bet against in the long run.
As far as this matchup, I want to pick Trocoli because I think Trocoli is the better submission grappler, and he’s way bigger than Gore.
What Trocoli showed on the regionals is that he’s willing to attempt takedowns, and he can finish on the mat. Given his willingness to wrestle and size, I think he has a path to victory at least.
The issue is that I have no idea what he’s really capable of on the feet, and as of now, I don’t think he’s capable of much. He landed 12 distance strikes against Magomedov in 12 minutes.
So despite Gore getting hurt, and not producing much volume, I feel like Gore would have an advantage in the boxing realm. If he can get inside, his power shots could hurt Trocoli for sure. I just feel hesitant to really rely on that for Gore either.
I also don’t have real faith Trocoli can actually get the fight down to the mat. Maybe he’ll just try and fail again because he can’t get in on Gore’s hips. So I’m definitely open to the idea that Trocoli tries his best, looks awful doing so for a few minutes and then gets hurt.
Neither of these fighters project very strongly as longterm prospects and I’m not excited to bet on either. I think it’s quite possible Trocoli is being undervalued here based on his recent matchup, and he could have an advantage if he gets on top. Gore might just be more physical and his boxing might be enough to land some occasional damage and/or find a finish.
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On DraftKings, Gore is priced at 8.6k and I think he’s mostly dependent on an early knockout.
He just won’t produce enough volume to score many points per minute, and I doubt his goal is to wrestle in this matchup. He could land a couple of takedowns, but I just don’t think it’s likely he dominates in that area.
Gore is +150 to win ITD, which is strong, and he does have KO upside within his style. Trocoli was just knocked out. However, it did take 12 minutes against a far superior striker in Magomedov. If Gore lands 60 strikes and gets a third round KO, he could score around 80 DK points.
It’s just not enough. So I really think Gore needs an early KO and I’m very hesitant to trust him with my money to earn that outcome.
He’s a fine tournament target though, in theory. Very boom or bust but fine for some KO upside.
Trocoli at 7.6k is somewhat of a sneaky target I think. He shouldn’t be owned much and he’s also boom or bust, but at least he has a grappling based path to win.
Trocoli is +225 to win ITD which is pretty strong for the price too. I don’t think Gore is an overwhelming step up in competition for him and if anything, it could be a step down.
There are many live underdogs on this slate despite the betting odds, so Trocoli isn’t an outright priority. But I do think I like him more than the field and he’s one sneaky dog option who I wouldn’t mind taking an extra shot on this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gore by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Melissa Mullins vs. Klaudia Sygula
Fight Odds: Mullins -267, Sygula +220
Odds to Finish: +175
DraftKings Salaries: Mullins 8.8k, Sygula 7.4k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely low-level fight here between Melissa Mullins and newcomer Klaudia Sygula.
Mullins is 6-1 professionally and is 1-1 in the UFC. In her UFC debut, she defeated Irina Alekseeva by essentially outboxing her, and controlling her on the mat. Mullins then lost to Nora Cornolle by getting finished with a body strike in round two.
Mullins isn’t good, but she is at least functional in certain areas. As a striker, I don’t love Mullins’ game. She isn’t very athletic, and I do think she takes a little too much damage for my liking. She also only landed 52 significant strikes in three rounds against Alekseeva and can be low volume at times.
Mullins is semi-functional on the feet though. She has a decent jab and straight punches. She can defend herself against the low tier strikers of this division.
Mullins is best as a grappler, where she is a brown belt in BJJ. Her takedowns aren’t great, but they aren’t awful and she can take down low-level opponents. She is also pretty strong in the clinch.
I actually think Mullins’ top game is the best part of her game. She can advance position, she can slap in body triangles and flow on top reasonably well. I also think her bottom game is decent from what I have seen, and she doesn’t get held down often. So she generally wins the positional battle on the mat vs a low tier competition which will win her fights.
Mullins also has never been submitted and can generally stifle submissions on the mat. I generally think Mullins’ path to victory in the UFC is by outgrappling low level opponents.
Enter Klaudia Sygula who is 6-1 professionally and will be making her UFC debut. Sygula is a Polish fighter who is 25 years old. Sygula has basically just fought in terrible promotions against terrible fighters. So she is quite unproven in general.
Sygula doesn’t look like a real talent to me. I would honestly be surprised if she lasted in this promotion. She is going to have to make some major improvements.
Sygula is kind of just a freestyle fighter. She isn’t particularly good anywhere. As a striker, she can be semi-aggressive at times. However, she doesn’t look all that technical or athletic. Her volume isn’t always great either. I doubt she can do much with her striking at this level.
Sygula occasionally lands takedowns, but I don’t consider her a good wrestler. She isn’t even great on top either and I have seen her lose positions quite easily.
Sygula also looks like a poor defensive grappler. If you include her amateur record, she has been submitted three times. In her loss to Karolina Sobek, she was head and arm thrown like three times, and held on her back and couldn’t get up. She was submitted by a Scarf Hold Armlock which is actually an old school catch wrestling submission that isn’t used much in MMA. That isn’t really something a professional fighter should be getting submitted with. She is a purple belt in BJJ officially.
I really don’t have many good things to say about Sygula. She doesn’t look like a great striker or grappler and she looks pretty terrible on the mat. She can be taken down and put in bad spots in general.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t think Mullins is very good but I do think she is more proven than Sygula. I also think Mullins is the better positional grappler here as well. I have seen Mullins scramble up quite well off her back while Sygula looks to have a terrible bottom game.
I honestly think Mullins could land takedowns here and potentially dominate in top position. I don’t know if she will get a finish, but I do think she can get to mount and dominant positions so it honestly may result in a finish, and I think Mullins has sneaky finishing upside.
I think the best chance Sygula has is on the feet. I don’t rate either girl on the feet but I could potentially see Sygula being more aggressive which could result in some close rounds that could swing to her. Mullins probably looks a bit more technical on the feet though and just may be better there.
Ultimately though, Mullins looks like the better positional grappler by a decent margin so I think it is fair to pick her and she could potentially dominate there. This is a very low level fight though so you can never be too confident.
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On DraftKings, Mullins is priced at 8.8k which feels tough to pay for.
Many actually bought into her in her last matchup (myself included), and many got burned. Despite another favorable matchup on paper, it’s difficult to really consider her a priority on a strong slate.
With that said, Sygula doesn’t look great, and particularly doesn’t look great as a wrestler. I do think Mullins can land takedowns, and from there, maybe she could secure a finish.
Mullins is +210 to win ITD which isn’t great, but we’ve seen worse.
I would mostly consider Mullins a contrarian or pivot play this week, and one that is viable. She’s -267 which is telling, considering Mullins isn’t a great talent herself. With some wrestling equity and finishing equity, there’s at least upside on the table and I doubt she’ll be played.
It’s going to be tough to prioritize her with a limited portfolio, but I’m open to mixing her in given the matchup and savings from the top end.
Sygula at 7.4k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
Even if her advantage is standing, I don’t think she has incredible upside. She doesn’t look like a real volume or knockout threat, and I think she’s less effective by a large margin as a striker than Mullins’ previous opponent.
I’d honestly be more interested in her grappling upside where she at least clinches and wrestles sometimes. But on top she doesn’t look great and I do think Mullins is better overall.
Sygula is +715 to win ITD which is bad. This is low-level WMMA so anything is possible, but I don’t love Sygula this week. There are many other dogs I’d rather play personally for win equity, talent and/or DK upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mullins by Decision (Confidence=Medium)