UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento (5/11/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Fight Odds: Lewis -162, Nascimento +139
Odds to Finish: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Lewis 8.4k, Nascimento 7.8k
Weight Class: HW
There’s few things the UFC loves more than a heavyweight slop fest, which is why they’ve called upon Derrick Lewis once again to main event this weekend against Rodrigo Nascimento.
Lewis has not had much success as of late, which is not surprising considering his fighting style. He’s a boom or bust knockout artist to the extreme, and although he’s been able to provide many highlight reel finishes, his game is simply not sustainable.
Lewis lands 2.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.48 per minute with a 40 percent striking defense. He averages 0.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 53 percent.
He will rarely throw any volume, nor is he very technical when doing so, and his only real shot is to land something heavy that damages his opponent. Without giving himself many chances per fight due to minimal attempts, I’ve never found a reason to trust that he’ll succeed.
In recent years, his lack of striking defense has caught up to him as well, and he’s been hurt on the feet by several opponents.
It’s one thing if you’re this menace who opponents have no answer to on the feet, but it’s another if you’re getting hurt just as often as you are hurting your opponents. Since 2019, Lewis has landed four knockdowns, and he’s been knocked down three times.
Needless to say, his lack of volume means that his round and minute winning ability is very poor. The only real positive with Lewis in this environment is that he can sustain his power into the latter rounds, so losing early doesn’t mean the end of the night. But he’ll consistently be losing minutes, and the fight, until his one big shot lands.
As a grappler, the best part of Lewis’ game as I noted prior to his fight against Almeida, is that he is so large that when he gets taken down, opponents have a horrible time controlling him.
We’ve seen it numerous times throughout his career. Lewis will get taken down, put in a bad spot, and then he’s just like “ok time to stand up” and he stands up while his opponent slips off of him. It’s allowed him to extend fights and find damaging shots late, despite the awful early defensive grappling.
If Lewis ever gets on top, he can throw devastating ground-and-pound as well but he’ll never project to wrestle at a high rate.
Overall, I’ve never been a fan of Lewis as a fighter though I think he’s a fun guy to root for. I do respect his power and that power can keep him firmly alive in this heavyweight division against nearly any opponent. But without volume, grappling, defense or cardio, I never feel comfortable backing Lewis.
Next up will be Rodrigo Nascimento, a Brazilian kickboxer and grappler who’s had a fine run in the UFC thus far.
Nascimento is coming off a decision win against Don’Tale Mayes, whom he also beat in his UFC debut by submission. He’s fought to a couple of close, split decisions against Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser as well, but was badly knocked out by Chris Daukaus in 2020.
Nascimento isn’t a great fighter, but he’s fine. He lands 4.31 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 4.76 per minute with a 43 percent defensive rate. He lands 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 70 percent.
Nascimento is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and in theory that is the best part of his game. He can land takedowns and work to the back, and hunt for submissions. Six of his 11 pro wins have come by submission.
And the wrestling is decent too. He can dive in on the hips for a double leg, but I wouldn’t say he’s dominant there or super high volume.
As a striker, Nascimento is good enough to compete at this level, but he’ll rarely dominate exchanges. He’s not even landing more strikes than he’s absorbed currently, and he hasn’t knocked anyone down in the UFC yet.
I actually like some of what I’ve seen from him though. He can kick pretty well, and his inside combinations are decent. He’s fluid enough to have success but like I said, he’ll rarely be winning comfortably standing.
Also, I’m pretty skeptical of his durability. The KO loss to Daukaus is his only pro loss ever, but he got hit early in that fight and just dropped. Daukaus hits hard but Nascimento did not react well.
He was also kind of hurt by Mayes in his last fight, and I feel pretty confident in saying he will be knocked out again. Against Lewis, that clearly poses a concern.
As far as the matchup, Lewis is a fine pick and Nascimento falls in line with the type of competition that Lewis has typically beaten. I really wouldn’t be surprised if Lewis came out hot, bombed on Nascimento and knocked him out.
However, I’ll pick against Lewis anyways because he lacks the process I want from fighters.
Despite being mediocre as a kickboxer, Nascimento just landed 70 strikes in three rounds. You wanna know when the last time Lewis landed 70 strikes in a fight was? It was back in 2000never. It’s never happened. Lewis has only landed 65 sig. strikes in his last five fights combined.
So until Lewis finds that big KO shot, he’ll probably be losing. Nascimento should throw more volume, he can kick, and Lewis has been hurt enough that I wouldn’t even be surprised if he eventually found a knockout.
Obviously he has the wrestling path to victory too. He should be able to get Lewis down, and threaten on the back. I am skeptical as to how many takedowns he can land before he gets tired though, and holding Lewis down will be hard.
I wouldn’t even be surprised to see this fight play out similarly to Almeida/Lewis in that Nascimento could have success early, land takedowns, not find the finish and allow Lewis to survive. And then get so tired in an extended fight that Lewis comes back to win by KO in round three. Weird stuff is on the table here.
And ultimately, there’s no real reason to be confident. There’s an extreme amount of variance in fights like this. I’ll take Nascimento for the processed upset but I’m not confident.
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On DraftKings, I am expecting a ton of attention on this main event because it’s a Derrick Lewis fight, and lined -1000 to end inside the distance.
From a base standpoint, Lewis or Nascimento are very likely to win early ITD, and therefore the winner should project to exceed value at their respective price tag, and compete for the optimal lineup.
Lewis is priced at 8.4k and should be the more popular target with a -145 ITD line. The majority of his win equity comes early and a victory for Lewis is likely to surpass the 100 point mark. It wouldn’t be wrong to prioritize him outright in this situation.
However, Lewis produces such little offense that he’s an incredible bust risk, even in an extended fight.
He has on his resume, an 83-point, second round TKO, multiple three-round decisions which scored 51 or less, and several round 3-4 TKOs which scored 77, 86 and 65.
So I should be clear in that if Lewis does not win by KO in round one, he might just bust entirely. Even with a comeback KO. Investing in that heavily when he might not even throw many strikes has always been a fear of mine, which is partially why I’ve been underweight on him for his entire career.
Still, Lewis has an opponent in front of him who is mediocre, and can be hurt. It’s viable to bet on the early KO and optimal score but given his projected popularity, I’ll aim to be underweight.
Nascimento at 7.8k is my preferred option in the sense that if he wins, even in an extended fight, I feel better about him competing with the optimal lineup.
He probably doesn’t have as much early win equity as Lewis though, and he’s only +155 to win ITD. It’s possible he fights more cautiously this week with a powerhouse in front of him, and could therefore underperform later as well.
But he throws strikes at a fair rate, and he can grapple. Even if he doesn’t finish Lewis immediately, Nascimento can theoretically land 3-5 takedowns and earn lots of control. Lewis could still eventually succumb and get finished.
I feel pretty decent about Nascimento competing for the optimal in a win, and because Lewis lacks any fighting process, I also feel decent about Nascimento’s chances of winning the fight.
Therefore, I’ll play him moderately. I expect the field will as well and I’m probably not looking to take a massive stand here against the field, but I will end up with more exposure to Nascimento than Lewis.
If you’re struggling to decide, you can just split your exposure. It’s not worth the headache. You’d rather have the winner of this matchup on lots of lineups and find your edge elsewhere on the slate.
I also think there’s merit to being a bit underweight to the field in total based on what I noted with Lewis in extended matchups. A round 2-4 KO win for Lewis is very viable, and if that happens, he simply may not be optimal.
Avoiding the main event in some spots in case we get an outcome like that could be one way to gain an advantage over the field, but it will be dependent on the size of your portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nascimento by Arm-Triangle, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Fight Odds: Buckley -126, Ruziboev +110
Odds to Finish: -285
DraftKings Salaries: Buckley 8.7k, Ruziboev 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After campaigning and harassing Dana White at the UFC 300 press conference, Joaquin Buckley finally got his wish and will be fighting in his hometown of St. Louis this weekend against Nursulton Ruziboev.
I have actually liked what I have seen from Buckley lately and he looks much more suited at welterweight than at middleweight.
Buckley is decent as a fighter. I actually really liked his last performances against Alex Morono and Vicente Luque. Buckley just really styled on Morono in a way I didn’t totally expect. He showed a nice burst in aggression and physicality, and I think it was his best performance to date.
Buckley is generally a striker. He lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.26 in return. He has plenty of power and can use his athleticism to spring in and land big shots. He is 8-4 in the UFC and six of eight wins have come by knockout.
I still don’t like Buckley all that much defensively as a striker though. He only defends strikes at 58 percent and three of his four losses have come by knockout. So although he is dangerous, he is a candidate to be knocked out himself.
Still though, I respect Buckley’s power and he is a competent striker, so he will always have a path to victory.
Buckley does come from a wrestling background as well and lands 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think he is a great wrestler, but I do think he can land some spot takedowns here and there. He defends takedowns at 69 percent.
Buckley will be taking on Nursulton Ruziboev. Ruziboev is now 2-0 in the UFC, with knockout wins over Brunno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas in his first two UFC fights. The Dumas fight was controversial as there was an eye poke prior to the finish.
Ruziboev is 34-8-2 professionally and has a lot of experience in random regional promotions. This guy mostly looks like an early finisher to me as he has lost six of his eight fights that have gone to decision. Almost all of his wins come early.
Ruziboev is long and big at 6’5”, and he can strike and grapple. Ruziboev is very dangerous early on the feet and uses his long frame to crowd opponents and land long punches and kicks. He can definitely finish guys in the UFC.
Ruziboev is also a BJJ black belt and can blitz guys early with grappling. He is submission capable in general.
I really have concerns with this guy though. He loses a ton of decisions and I don’t trust him in extended fights. I have seen him tire out badly, get taken down himself, and even give up advanced positions like mount and side control.
At this point, I don’t totally trust Ruziboev in extended fights against quality competition. He is not proven over the duration at all.
That is why I am going to pick Buckley in this matchup. Buckley can remain dangerous and fresh for 15 minutes and has beaten numerous quality opponents.
Buckley has struggled with durability though so I am not totally confident in him here. Ruziboev is super dangerous early standing, and I think he could knock Buckley out. He could maybe grapple Buckley early too, but I am actually leaning against that.
I generally fade early finishers in spots like this so I am going to stick with the process. I think Buckley is a more proven fighter and better over the duration. If he avoids the early storm, he should win this fight.
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On DraftKings, we’ll have an interesting situation with the pricing because Ruziboev is down at 7.5k, yet he’s only +110 to win.
In that, he’s currently lined as one of the best values on the slate. Not only does he have considerable win equity for this type of price, but his ITD line is great at +175 and he’s coming off two UFC knockout wins which scored 95 and 105.
While I don’t have the utmost confidence in Ruziboev, especially in an extended fight, he simply rates out very well for upside and I think he’s worth consideration at this price tag. Buckley may be more experienced and better in the long run, but Buckley has been badly hurt before, so it’s reasonable to believe Ruziboev has some early KO equity.
Ruziboev is also massive. He’ll be seven inches taller than Buckley. I could see him spamming kicks for some early success.
I also think there’s reason to be skeptical about Ruziboev. He’s won two decisions in 44 pro fights, while he’s lost six of them. Buckley isn’t likely to allow tons of volume over the duration, and there’s reason to believe he can defend takedowns as well.
It is possible that Ruziboev is extremely boom or bust and he’s had a fortunate run thus far in his UFC career. Given the strength of the underdogs this week, I don’t even think Ruziboev is a clear stand out.
He’s simply one of many live options, with considerable upside in a win. That’s worth exposure in my opinion and although he could be prioritized, I will lean toward using him more as a secondary target because I am still a bit skeptical in his path to dominating in this particular matchup.
Buckley at 8.7k is now overpriced at -126, and he’s always carried a boom or bust style.
Even in an impressive decision win over Alex Morono, Buckley only scored 73 DraftKings points because he just isn’t able to produce a ton of offense.
It’s really his power that’s carried him, and I think his best chance at an optimal score is also with an early KO.
His recent win against Luque was weird because Luque just pulled guard in the second round and Buckley beat him up from top position to force the stoppage. Buckley possibly has grappling upside in this fight because Ruziboev can be taken down, but Ruziboev is also a dangerous grappler so I’m unsure if Buckley will want to test him down there.
I also think the huge height discrepancy may be a challenge for Buckley because it will be difficult for him to enter range and land. He still has KO upside but Ruziboev hasn’t shown a ton of durability issues yet.
Buckley will rate out well with a +120 ITD line but without an early KO, I do fear he will fall short of the optimal lineup, and I’m uncertain how much I want to invest in that outcome.
He will possibly be leverage given the price dynamic, but Buckley is a big draw on this card, with strong recent results, so I doubt he’ll be overlooked despite the pricing.
I think he’s a fine secondary target with finishing upside and I don’t mind betting against Ruziboev longterm, but it’s not the most clear matchup for upside either so I’m hesitant to invest in him heavily.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Buckley by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg
Fight Odds: Ulberg -250, Menifield +207
Odds to Finish: -290
DraftKings Salaries: Ulberg 9.3k, Menifield 6.9k
Weight Class: 205
Two strikers will bang it out in the Octagon as Carlos Ulberg aims for his sixth consecutive victory against a dangerous opponent in Alonzo Menifield.
Ulberg comes from the City Kickboxing camp and has a background in kickboxing, so his primary goal will generally be to keep the fight standing.
He came into the UFC relatively inexperienced as a professional MMA fighter though, and that’s why we’ve seen some trouble spots along the way. Despite going bananas with volume in his UFC debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu, Ulberg slowed down dramatically and was TKOd in the second round.
However, it’s important to note that he landed 83 sig. strikes in the first round of that fight. Getting tired is not terribly surprising. It showed some level of inexperience but that loss doesn’t look as bad in hindsight.
What’s arguably more important is that Ulberg has bounced back strongly from the defeat, and rattled off five wins in a row. He fought super cautiously and technically against Fabio Cherant, and took a boring decision.
That caused much of the MMA DFS public to move away from him.
Fortunately, we didn’t give up hope, and Ulberg has paid us back with several first-round knockout wins, against Tafon Nchukwi, Nicolae Negumereanu and Ihor Potieria.
Most recently, it was another solid performance against Da Woon Jung, where Ulberg outclassed Jung over 15 minutes and still landed a knockdown along the way.
He even landed a takedown in that fight and took Jung’s back, showcasing some improvements throughout his MMA game.
Ulberg currently lands 7.29 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.59 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate. Going forward, I’ll consider Ulberg to be a dangerous kickboxer, with some real knockout equity, and some strong round-winning equity as well. He’ll be a little bit difficult to trust as far as knowing when he’ll push the pace or fight cautiously. I’ll also still have mild concerns about when he’s pushed, getting tired, getting outgrappled, or getting hurt.
His next opponent will be Alonzo Menifield, a powerhouse athlete with some top-notch power, which has helped earn him several early KO wins in the UFC. Including his wins on DWCS, Menifield has six round-one KOs in the UFC, which is impressive and showcases his finishing ability.
The problem is that Menifield does not have much depth to his game, and he’s been mostly reliant on those early finishes.
We’ve seen him slow down dramatically, which happens a lot with early finishers, as well as physical specimens like Menifield who carry a lot of muscle on their bodies. That fatigue and lack of options have really crippled some of his upside as a talent, and has led to losses against the likes of Devin Clark and William Knight.
However, Menifield has seemingly improved in that area in recent years. He’s now coming off a round-two submission win over Jim Crute, and a decision over Dustin Jacoby, in which he hurt Jacoby in the third round.
The longer Menifield’s power is able to translate, the better for him.
Still, Menifield doesn’t throw a ton of volume. He lands 3.92 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.51 per minute with a 49 percent accuracy. It’s fine, but his career high in sig. strikes was 93 against Ed Herman, followed by 68 against Jacoby, followed by 56 against Crute.
He has been inconsistent in that sense and not super trustworthy in his ability to throw volume over an extended period. It should be noted that in his last win, Jacoby still outlanded him 78 to 51 at distance.
As a grappler, Menifield is very limited as well. He averages 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 75 percent. He’s only landed takedowns against weak grapplers and hasn’t done much with it. He’s also somewhat of a liability defensively.
Overall, I respect the power of Menifield and I like his physical attributes, but the vast majority of his success will come with early damage, which doesn’t bode well longterm.
Against Ulberg, I think Menifield can compete, but mostly due to variance in striking exchanges. From a technical standpoint, Ulberg is better, more technical, and throws at a higher volume.
Ulberg has also shown to be more defensively sound on a per-strike basis, and when he’s in a dangerous matchup, he won’t necessarily force a pace. Still, Nzechukwu did knock him down and finish him, so the possibility of Ulberg getting hurt again is live.
Menifield has been knocked down a couple of times, and he was finished by OSP in round two in 2020.
I would neve ignore someone with Menifield’s power, especially in a matchup where he likely gets the fight he wants. We should see these two trade for as long as it lasts.
Ulberg is just a better kickboxer though, I trust him more defensively, and I trust him more over an extended period. I am not convinced Ulberg goes hard early as the long game may suit him better, though one big punch could change the momentum at any time.
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On DraftKings, Ulberg is very expensive at 9.3k and that’s going to be the main reason why I am hesitant to target him.
He will need the early knockout. We’ve seen him score that many times, and put up scores like 106, 106 and 105. Those also aren’t elite ceiling scores, and at 9.3k, I would be worried that 106 won’t be optimal even if he secures it.
Ulberg is also a severe bust risk in an extended fight because he lacks much grappling equity, and volume should only be mediocre. He’s very largely dependent on early damage and a KO from a fantasy standpoint.
At 9.3k, I don’t think I’ll target Ulberg heavily. This is a pretty strong range and there are a handful of cheaper fights that are priorities for me on both sides.
He won’t be difficult to afford though, so in that sense, I’ll still consider using Ulberg. He’s -130 to win ITD and an early KO would be a reasonable outcome. I think other winners can match his ceiling though and there’s much more grappling equity to be had elsewhere, so I lean toward Ulberg being more of a secondary target this week.
Menifield at 6.9k is a boom or bust knockout target, but not one I especially like this week. There are so many live underdogs that even if I thought Menifield has a legit shot, he’d be pretty far down the line of priority for me.
Menifield won’t land much volume and likely won’t grapple, so his floor is very thin. He’s +285 to win ITD which is actually strong, and if he projects to be low owned, you could consider shares of him based on the ITD metric alone.
Otherwise, he’s a standard punt with some KO upside. I would label him more of a low-end secondary target, at best, given the tough matchup. Sprinkle him in for large fields if you like but I’ll be relatively light on Menifield this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulberg by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
Fight Odds: Rebecki -425, Ferreira +327
Odds to Finish: -205
DraftKings Salaries: Rebecki 9.4k, Ferreira 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger of a matchup here between Polish powerhouse Mateusz Rebecki and Diego Ferreira (I will call him CDF).
Rebecki is 19-1 professionally and 3-0 in the UFC. He is very much a wrestle-boxer. He is an extremely physical and aggressive guy. He will come forward out of the southpaw stance and throw with power and bad intentions. He can hurt opponents and just keep up a hard pace.
He mixes in a really good inside low kick as well, and has a strong 1-2 combination. I still question his technical striking, but he is definitely potent offensively and is dangerous on the feet.
Rebecki is also a good wrestler and lands 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes. He can land good double legs and threaten with submissions. He will also just look to beat opponents up with ground-and-pound on the mat.
Overall, Rebecki is just a solid fighter. He can strike and wrestle and is dangerous with physicality. He will do well in the UFC.
Rebecki will be taking on grappling ace Carlos Diego Ferreira. CDF is a very skilled fighter. He has a great gas tank and is very aggressive on the feet with a dangerous submission grappling game.
As a grappler, that is where CDF thrives. He is an extremely dangerous submission grappler and a BJJ black belt. He isn’t the best takedown artist though. He only lands 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and only attempts a little more than three takedowns per fight. However, once he is on the mat, he is very capable of getting the back or obtaining different submissions. He is also just tricky on his own back with his sweeps and leg entanglements.
CDF is also a capable striker. His striking success is more predicated on pace than anything else, but I consider him very competent and underrated as a striker. He lands 4.66 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.42 in return. He has good metrics overall and even gave good fighters like Beneil Dariush a run for their money on the feet. He also has some power and recently knocked out Michael Johnson.
CDF has lost three of his last four fights, but his losses have come to Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush which is a murderer’s row of competition. He also had a lot of success in those fights as well. I still consider him a good talent in this division and don’t fault him much for losing those fights.
CDF is old though. He is now 39 years old so I do question his form at this point in his career, and that is why I will pick Rebecki in this matchup. Rebecki is the younger and more physical fighter who can probably get by with physicality in this matchup.
I still question this line though. On the feet, Rebecki probably has more consistent power upside. However, CDF is dangerous himself and can strike in volume. I probably favor Rebecki standing, but I am not sure this is a cakewalk for Rebecki.
Furthermore, Rebecki may be able to land takedowns, but I am not sure he just dominates CDF on the mat. CDF has good get ups and sweeps and is tricky on the mat. CDF could maybe even create some type of backtake himself and threaten Rebecki.
This is a weird one. Skill for skill, CDF is arguably better everywhere. However, the youth, physicality, and career trajectory is on the side of Rebecki. I will pick Rebecki to win as he will probably mix in some takedowns and land some damaging strikes. However, this may turn into a more competitive fight than the line suggests as CDF is skill for skill the best fighter Rebecki has fought.
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On DraftKings, Rebecki is priced as the biggest favorite on the board at 9.4k, and although he’s easy to afford, I’m not sure how much I want to invest.
It’s honestly not an easy matchup for Rebecki excluding his youth and physical advantages. Ferreira is very experienced, and he’s likely to neutralize Rebecki’s typical grappling edge.
Rebecki hasn’t really proven much outside of his ability to physically dominate opponents. I can definitely foresee that outcome here but it’s tough to project it to be one-way traffic.
The good news is that he’s very affordable. There are an infinite number of underdogs worth rostering, so you will definitely have the salary available if you want to play Rebecki.
As a -425 favorite with a -150 ITD line, Rebecki will rate out strongly and can be considered in all formats. Ferreira does give up takedowns so if Rebecki can stay safe on top, he still has some fantasy upside. And given his strong box scores of 112, 122 and 104, I think Rebecki will be fairly popular publicly as well.
If I had to lean one direction, it would be against targeting Rebecki heavily though. This is a big step up in competition, and I don’t see an easy path to domination on the mat. Rebecki will probably score “fine” in a win regardless but there are so many good matchups on this slate and I think I’d rather hone in on some different matchups personally.
Ferreira is the cheapest fighter on the board at 6.8k, and although he’s viable, he’ll fall low on the priority list due to the strength of the dogs this week.
Ferreira will be a little taller than Rebecki with an eight-inch reach advantage, so there is some hope for him on the feet. A knockout is not a super likely outcome though, despite his recent victory over Michael Johnson.
I also think wrestling will be a problem for Ferreira, who’s never been elite in that area. If he had a consistent path to top position, I would love him, but Rebecki is likely good and physical enough to keep the fight upright if he wants. Nick Fiore did take him down once though..
Ferreira is still only +327 to win and +560 to win ITD. He does have some finishing and grappling upside, but his chances to win are seemingly less likely than most others on this slate.
I still don’t mind a small percentage punt because he will be very low owned, but that’s just a large-field tournament play if you have a larger portfolio to play with. Otherwise, I’ll choose to focus on the 7k range where there is considerably more win equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rebecki by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson
Fight Odds: Woodson -199, Caceres +169
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Woodson 9.1k, Caceres 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Alex Caceres is one of the longer tenured guys on the roster, now entering his 14th year with the promotion, but has by and large performed well in his 30s – he’s 16-12 in the UFC and 21-14 as a pro. Sean Woodson’s a Contender Series alum who earned a contract back in 2019 after scoring a nice flying knee on Terrance McKinney. He’s since had a decent run outside of a few blemishes – he’s 5-1-1 in the UFC and 11-1-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Caceres has always been an interesting guy on the feet. He’s a long southpaw for the division and fights that way as well, as he’ll largely look to play the outside or mid-range game to get off on his strikes from there. His metrics are respectable as well, landing 4.16 sig. strikes per minute at 50%.
He’s shown some sneaky power at times with his darting in and out style and flashy kicks, but he isn’t a historic “power puncher” and is more so a crafty volume-based guy.
Defensively, his metrics are pretty good, only eating 2.93 sig. strikes per minute while defending at a 63% clip. He’s got a positive distance differential of +1.1/minute and defends at distance at a 67% clip.
However, he was hurt badly multiple times in his fight with Choi, though he did survive.
There is some context in all of this as Caceres has been a long time UFC vet implying statistical significance, but he hasn’t fought the best brand of competition out there either. Granted, he’s definitely fought some good guys in there but only a handful of his UFC opponents remain in the UFC.
Overall, he’s a good striker and isn’t going to be easy to look against minute to minute.
Woodson comes from a boxing background where he put up a 46-3 amateur record in the discipline. His plan was to go pro, but a car accident shut that down.
He made the move to MMA full-time back in 2016 and has realized quite a bit of success.
Woodson’s also probably one of the biggest featherweights I’ve seen, standing 6’2” with a 78” reach — pretty unreal how he makes the weight class. He pushes a high pace in fights as well landing 5.4 sig. strikes per minute at 46%.
He’s a base orthodox fighter but he’ll flow between stances and has some crisp, fast hands.
He hasn’t been the biggest power threat in terms of his hands as he works more of a “Diaz brother” style of he’s just going to touch you and keep hands in your face.
We did see him put it on Anglin more recently though and finish him with body shots – he additionally dropped Erosa so it’s not as if he has pillows in his hands though.
But because he’s so lanky, he’s got sneaky good knees up the middle which he doesn’t have to bring up that much given his size – he has clipped a few guys with these.
Defensively, he’s largely been pretty good at being able to roll with punches, but Erosa did land over 100 significant strikes on him in that fight – I do largely attribute that to the fact that Woodson took the fight on two weeks’ notice and slowed down halfway through.
We did see Saldana significantly hurt him early as well, and would have most likely finished if he didn’t throw the illegal knee – so Woodson isn’t invincible at the same time.
Overall, Woodson’s length and pace is going to make him a unique matchup for most guys, but Woodson still hasn’t fought a very strong strength of schedule – although he out struck Jourdain over 15 minutes last time out which is a good feather in his cap.
How it plays out: Despite Caceres having some lanky components at the weight himself, he will be at a 4” height and 5” reach disadvantage here. Given Caceres’ style, I would anticipate him to compete with Woodson to a degree, but I also see him being just one step behind in the volume category. Also, despite the lengthy UFC stint for Caceres, I’d also say that Woodson is arguably the best pure boxer he’s faced. He’s fought some good kickboxers in Yair Rodriguez and Giga Chikadze (both of which gave him troubles as lankier fighters), so I would also anticipate some struggles for Caceres because Woodson’s length also allows him to box in different ranges outside of just the pocket.
The wrestling/grappling component:
In the aggregate, Caceres hasn’t wrestled much, only landing 0.56 TDs per 15 minutes but nabs them at a 68% clip. He also stuffs at 64% which is respectable.
However, the majority of his UFC losses have come via submission, and he has been outwrestled before. He also got his back taken by Peterson in the first round and dropped some ground time to Croom in more recent years. A gassed-out Pineda also took the 2nd round off him on the ground.
He’s a blackbBelt in BJJ but a bit wishy washy on the ground because he can grapple but also find himself in tricky spots. The numbers do support that as well – only 32% of his fight time is spent grappling but he is being out controlled at a 2:1 ratio.
But you can’t sleep on Caceres offensively either because he is good transitionally in being able to get to the back if opponents make mistakes, and he will have an aggressive guard.
Overall, the ground is more of a weakness for Caceres than a strength, but he’s also crafty and can sub guys if they don’t come proper.
Given the boxing base of Woodson, the wrestling/grappling has given him some issues in the past.
He stuffs TDs at 84% which is very good, but he’s gotten his back taken on three occasions in the past and did get caught in a d’arce choke by Erosa late. He’s also gotten stuck on the fence at times as well, most notably against Zalal.
Offensively, we haven’t seen much from Woodson on the floor until his fight with Buzukja where he pursued the wrestling in the back half of the fight, going 4/5 on TDs while racking up six minutes of control.
He won his 1st pro fight via guillotine and threatened Saldana with a buggy choke, but traditionally Woodson hasn’t shown much offensive upside as guys are trying to wrestle him and he wants to box.
Maybe the Buzukja fight is an omen that we’ll see more wrestling from Woodson in the future, but it is still hard to project at this point.
He did go 1/3 on Jourdain but wasn’t able to do much with the TD.
Overall, this is currently the biggest hole in Woodson’s game despite his good TDD mark and largely being defensively responsible on the ground, he still has a poor tendency to give his back to stand.
How it plays out: This is where there is some sneaky merit to Caceres as he does serve as the better submission grappler who can take backs, where Woodson’s had some issues. At the same time, Caceres just doesn’t wrestle in volume (or at all really) and Woodson’s TDD in the aggregate has been good, so it’s also hard to project at what rate Caceres can actually land TDs. He also didn’t even attempt a TD against Chikadze which I don’t think is the best sign in relation to this matchup. But there could be some opportunities transitionally for him in clinching exchanges. Caceres has been subbed in half of his losses though so Woodson snagging up some long man choke isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, though it’s still lower percentage.
Caceres isn’t a guy who Woodson can sleep on because he is a crafty vet who’s been difficult to extensively outland throughout his career, but I still think it’s an okay matchup for Woodson to pick up a W on the cards.
—
On DraftKings, this is not a fight that will be high on my priority list.
Woodson is priced up at 9.1k, and I just don’t see enough finishing or grappling equity to target him at a high rate.
He’s primarily a boxer, and I think he’s going to want to box here against Caceres. He is only +375 to win ITD which is very poor compared to most others on the slate.
Woodson did have a 107 point score in a decision, but that came with four takedowns which I highly doubt Woodson will be able to replicate. Volume is typically a strong point for Woodson as well but at 9.1k, I don’t see it being enough to contend with the optimal.
There’s always some chance that Caceres will get hurt, but it’s not really an outcome I’m looking to bet on. I much prefer the majority of other targets in this range, and will consider Woodson closer to a fade at this price tag.
Caceres at 7.1k has among the better floors on the slate for underdogs, and I think he has some cash game viability because of that.
The fight is -260 to go the distance, and Caceres landing 60 strikes is in play. But we could see a handful of dogs outright winning, so punting for a mediocre floor isn’t extremely exciting.
Even in a decision win, I’m not overwhelmingly interested in Caceres. If he lands 80 strikes and a takedown, that’s 67 DraftKings points. His last two decision wins scored 77 and 76.
I honestly don’t think that’s enough this week. We’re likely to get multiple dog wins and probably multiple big scores. There’s some merit due to a competitive fight and a cheap price tag, but I really want a smash score regardless of price.
And Caceres is only +425 to win ITD, which isn’t strong. He barely wrestles and he’s not a typical power threat. Realistically with a limited number of lineups, I will be very light on Caceres.
I do think he has some contrarian merit though. Primarily, Woodson has been randomly hurt on a couple of occasions. Caceres is also the better submission grappler. There are at least paths to a big score, even if that path doesn’t come at a high rate.
Given the low ownership and price tag, a small sprinkle of Caceres is still fine in tournaments. I just prefer to target more win equity and more upside on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Woodson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne
Fight Odds: Despaigne -241, Cortes-Acosta +201
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Despaigne 9k, Cortes-Acosta 7.2k
Weight Class: HW
Remember that undefeated Olympian taekwondo fighter Robelis Despaigne, who debuted at UFC 301, and knocked out his opponent in just 18 seconds? Well he’s back, and this time, he’s likely to face a real test (maybe).
Despaigne will be taking on the boxer Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who in theory matches up much better with him than the aging Josh Parisian did in Despaigne’s debut.
Of course that fight still played out in hilarious fashion, as expected. Despaigne rushed forward and threw a few huge strikes, and a kick where he slipped and fell down. Parisian looked at him, thought “this is my moment” and then rushed at Despaigne sloppily throwing strikes, as Despaigne backpedaled. Parisian connected with air while Despaigne threw a few heavy strikes and immediately dropped him, to finish the fight.
Whether or not Despaigne proves to have the tools able to climb the ladder is still to be determined, but it surely looks like every time he steps into the cage, we’re going to see madness.
If you’re unfamiliar with Despaigne, here’s my initial breakdown of him from UFC 301 when he debuted.
“Robelis Despaigne won the bronze medal in taekwondo at the 2012 London games.
Despaigne is 35 years old, but looks to be a legit athlete with significant early knockout potential in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He is 4-0 professionally with all four wins coming by first round knockout.
Sounds incredible right?
Well, I’m here to spoil the party because I view Despaigne as an extreme red flag, and I am far from certain he even gets past the old, slow, worn down Parisian on Saturday.
Largely, it’s because of his base, which is taekwondo. He wants to stand at distance, with his hands down, and kick you in the head. He can fire off punches too, but they’re singular moments, and his style won’t look nearly as efficient as a classic boxer or kickboxer.
This alone isn’t the issue, but in MMA, this is arguably one of the least important fighting bases you could have. Having a legitimate high school wrestling background would carry more weight in my book than a bronze medal in taekwondo, and that’s not meant to be a slight toward Despaigne, it’s just the unfortunate truth in MMA.
And if Despaigne had a legitimate, extended regional record against high-quality competition, perhaps I would think differently. However, it’s the complete opposite.
The guy is 4-0 and three of his four fights haven’t lasted longer than TWELVE SECONDS. I watched them all. It’s crazy. His pro debut lasted one full round but that was in 2022, and he has less than 20 seconds of cage time since then.
Every single opponent he’s faced has been a can, someone Despaigne was meant to crush. Tapology only has one of those fighters listed with a pro win, and the rest have none. In each of Despaigne’s last two fights, he landed one big shot less than five seconds into the round and knocked the guy out.
Obviously it’s extremely impressive, but it has essentially no impact on whether he’ll have continued success against UFC-level competition.
And welcome to the world of MMA analysis because this is a tough one. We have zero idea how Despaigne will look in extended fights. Zero idea of his volume, or of his ability to take punishment, which is important in this division.
We have zero idea how good his ground game is, which almost always means it’s very bad and a major liability. Maybe he can get away with it at HW but only against the bottom tier of talent.
I fully believe Despaigne can knock guys out early, but at this moment, my guess is that it’s the only way he can win.
I highly doubt he can keep up with a legitimate striker for multiple rounds. I saw one takedown attempt against him and my best guess is that his defensive wrestling is very poor, and if he gets taken down, he might get finished very easily.”
Clearly, with an 18-second finish, there’s no reason for me to change my macro analysis. I’m still very skeptical, if not doubtful.
Despaigne is huge though, athletic and throws with crazy power. Seeing him in the Octagon, at HW.. it’s also possible he just turns this into a Francis Ngannou-like run.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta doesn’t have the deepest MMA background, as he came from baseball and later transitioned to boxing, but there are aspects of his game that show consistency, which I love.
Mostly, it’s the volume. Cortes-Acosta averages 6.13 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.02 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate. He’s gone the distance four times in the UFC and won three of them, which includes a 147-strike performance against Chase Sherman.
Sherman is hittable, but it still takes solid cardio and the willingness to throw to be able to land that many strikes, and I much prefer that type of skill than the wild, insane early power that Despaigne will carry.
Cortes-Acosta is coming off an ugly win against Andrei Arlosvki, in which he only landed 49 strikes, but Arlovski loves to slow the pace down, and he limits exchanges. I don’t expect this fight to look like that fight.
Separately, Cortes-Acosta is also a limited fighter in that he doesn’t really grapple. He has not landed a takedown in the UFC, and his defensive grappling is somewhat of a liability.
He hasn’t shown insane power components either, though he has a couple of knockdowns and first-round KOs.
Mostly, this projects as a Despaigne early, or Cortes-Acosta late type of fight.
I’m interested to see how these two match up athletically as well. Despaigne is so freaking huge, he’s going to be three inches taller with a six-inch reach advantage, and he might look massive in there.
It’s very possible he just comes forward and lands something big. Cortes-Acosta just not might not be able to keep him away.
I’m still going to pick Cortes-Acosta though. Despaigne is just so wild. I would be shocked if he can keep up a pace with that style. Even if he truly does have legitimate first-round KO equity, I don’t know if it’s in the 60-70 percent range.
Cortes-Acosta should be the favorite over three rounds if he just survives early, which I acknowledge could be a challenge. He might also be able to win by early KO because Despaigne doesn’t keep his hands up. This one probably won’t last too long either way.
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On DraftKings, I assume Despaigne is going to be very chalky at 9k, coming off that debut win which scored 128 fantasy points.
He probably has the most first-minute win equity on the slate, and could legitimately be upgraded for that as a projection, which is rare. He’s -180 to win ITD here which is very good. He’ll rate out among the top overall tournament targets.
I do consider him similar to Derrick Lewis in the sense that he still might bust completely in a KO win that extends.
He literally landed seven strikes in that last fight. If he lands 20 in a fight that lasts 1:15, he’d score 108. His ceiling without multiple knockdowns seems pretty limited to me, even if it comes in round one. And a round-two stoppage is likely not going to result in anything better.
All things considered, while it makes sense to roster Despaigne moderately based on skill set and metrics, I’m going to come in underweight on him until I see him prove me wrong. And his increased price tag just gives more credence to making pivots in this range.
Cortes-Acosta is one of many strong upside underdogs this week, and one I’ll likely prefer to the field. He’s only 7.2k, which limits the risk.
Sure, his floor is 0, but the style in which Despaigne fights should give him lots of upside. He’s +215 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and I assume he’ll gain some popularity because of it. And because he’s obvious leverage against Despaigne, which is valuable.
There are enough viable dogs below the mid-range where you don’t have to force Cortes-Acosta in. Some chance Despaigne wins and doesn’t hit a ceiling, and the fight busts. Or some chance of a cautious, extended fight.
But it’s hard for me to avoid him at the same time, and the strength of the dogs this week should just mean less total ownership here. At the least he’s a strong secondary target, with upside, who saves salary and gains some leverage against the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Chase Hooper vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Fight Odds: Borshchev -138, Hooper +120
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Borshchev 8.5k, Hooper 7.7k
Weight Class: 155
The best middle school aged fighter in the world, Chase Hooper will return on Saturday against the dangerous kickboxer Viacheslav Borshchev.
Hooper has now won three of his past four fights, which includes a quick submission win over Jordan Leavitt in November. He’s now 24 years old and his move to lightweight seems to be paying dividends. Borshchev will be a tough challenge for him though.
Hooper first won his contract on DWCS in 2018, and showed incredible toughness and resilience for a fighter of such a young age. He’s had mediocre results since then, but I’ll be very curious to see whether he’s truly turned a corner.
The biggest issue with Hooper is his physicality, or lack thereof. He looks young, and he fights like he looks. He can be tossed around, and walloped in striking exchanges.
His striking defense has been a major issue to this point, and it currently sits at 36 percent. Although he’s incredibly tough and willing to fight through damage, there is a level of striker he simply cannot compete with. As of 2022, that level was Steve Garcia, who knocked him down three times in a minute and a half before the ref had to step in to stop the fight.
While I’m expecting improvements, I’m still skeptical. Hooper is long but he’s just not technical enough or defensively sound enough yet. His best chance on the feet is to pressure relentlessly and spam volume, hoping to break guys. Otherwise, he’s going to continue getting hurt.
Where Hooper excels is on the canvas, as a black belt in jiu-jitsu, he’s a great scrambler and dangerous to entangle with. He’s got good flexibility and awareness, and he’s the type who you don’t really want to take down, despite terrible wrestling defense, he can threaten from the bottom and reverse his way to top position.
He put up a crazy performance against Nick Fiore in 2023, landing 149 sig. strikes over 15 minutes which really showcased his cardio. Fiore took him down a bunch of times but was exhausted by the second round, and Hooper just kept coming.
That combination of pacing and grappling will allow Hooper to win fights at this level, but without elite wrestling, or striking defense, I still worry he’ll get spanked in losses.
Next up is Viacheslav “Slava Claus” Borschev, a kickboxing world champ who’s also a striking coach at Team Alpha Male, and has gotten the majority of his work done in the UFC on the feet.
He’s simply a high-level, technical and experienced kickboxer who’s won six of his seven pro MMA victories by TKO.
In the UFC, Borshchev has two wins, which both came by KO, and he also won by KO against Chris Duncan to earn his contract on DWCS.
His most impressive performance to date came against Maheshate, whom he knocked down three times en route to a second-round KO.
Most recently, Borshchev was in a firefight with Nazim Sadykhov, who took him down and hurt him badly on a couple of occasions. Borshchev showed incredible toughness there as well, landed nearly 150 sig. strikes of his own, but ultimately failed to get his hand raised.
The biggest problem we’ve seen with Borshchev throughout his career has been on the defensive wrestling side, where he currently defends at 36 percent.
He gave up 11 takedowns in a loss to Marc Diakese in 2022, and another 9 takedowns to Mike Davis in the same year. Sadykhov also took him down four times.
To his credit, that’s a decent level of competition, and Borshchev was able to survive all exchanges, but his takedown defense simply isn’t good.
What it suggests to me as far as the matchup is we’re not likely to see it play out competitively here. Hooper is too crafty on the ground and I think he can control Borshchev and potentially finish him if he’s able to land takedowns. If not, Borshchev likely hurts him badly and gets a TKO stoppage.
This is one of my favorite fights on the slate as it should be hectic from the start. Hooper really doesn’t have any choice.
I don’t think he can stand with Borshchev for long and it may only take a couple minutes for him to get badly hurt. He knows he needs to take Borshchev down and he should pressure because of it. Something has to give.
I’ve honestly gone back and forth – and prior to my initial tape, I was definitely leaning toward Borshchev. Hooper is just so defensively void as a striker that I’d be shocked if he survived for long, even though there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges.
Hooper’s wrestling is also not very good, nor is he physically strong enough to bully his way into top position. As a grappling dependent fighter, Hooper has only landed more than one takedown in two of his last nine fights, which is really scary here.
I’m hesitant to believe he can easily match a 10 takedown pace put up by Diakiese and Davis.
However, Borshchev’s wrestling defense is seriously poor, so feeling confident that he’ll defend shots feels risky as well. Plus, if he does get taken down, Hooper has much better BJJ than the likes of Davis and Diakiese, and I do think a finish is on the table. I’m worried it might only take one or two takedowns for Hooper to win.
I’ve seen a ton of back-and-forth on Twitter this week so there are a lot of strong opinions on both sides. I honestly don’t have one because it’s such a clear binary matchup in my eyes. Both sides have merit.
I’ll hesitantly lean toward Borshchev because the damage discrepancy should be so wide, but it’s arguable that Hooper has just as big of a advantage on the mat.
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On DraftKings, it’s safe to say that I’m very excited for the prospects of this matchup as well.
The ITD line as a whole currently sits at -325, and the winner should have clear domination upside.
Borshchev is priced at 8.5k, and he’ll still be boom or bust given his style. He’s very unlikely to wrestle, and I’m not expecting volume to play a major factor.
If the fight extends and Borschev wins a decision, although I suppose it could come with a KD, it likely also comes with time spent on the bottom. I really want Borshchev to win by TKO if I’m targeting him at this price.
He is +100 to win ITD in this matchup which is pretty strong, and I’m guessing he’ll be popular given the dynamics of the matchup. He also arguably has some of the best KD upside on the slate because Hooper just falls down when he gets hit.
Multiple KDs and an early KO are on the table for Borshchev. At 8.5k, I think he’s a very strong tournament target who I’d like moderate exposure to.
Hooper at 7.7k arguably has more upside because of his grappling upside. He can land multiple takedowns, earn lots of control, and land a lot of ground strikes in a win. Plus, he’s +195 to win ITD and I do think it’s realistic to believe he can find a finish.
Hooper has scored 143, 120 and 95 in his last three wins, and I am willing to chase that kind of ceiling in this particular matchup. I also expect Hooper to be quite popular given the matchup, and I expect many people will priorite him outright.
I honestly don’t think that’s a terrible call. If you are more confident in Hooper than I am, feel free to target him more aggressively. He’s one of the better upside underdogs on the slate.
He will be in extreme danger while the fight stays standing though, so ultimately, it’s why both sides rate out extremely well for me.
I will aim to be very heavy on this matchup as a whole, with my ownership being relatively split between the two sides.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Borshchev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Terrance McKinney vs. Esteban Ribovics
Fight Odds: Ribovics -165, McKinney +142
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Ribovics 8.9k, McKinney 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It is always going to be chaos when Terrance McKinney fights, and that’s what I am expecting once again as he faces Esteban Ribovics on Saturday.
McKinney is 15-6 professionally and 14 of his wins have come by first round finish. He comes from a wrestling background and is extremely dangerous early. He has power and has knocked several opponents dead. I don’t actually think McKinney is a very good striker as his defense is terrible, but he can clearly hurt anyone in the first couple of minutes.
Mckinney also showed some ground skills against Fares Ziam and Erick Gonzalez by taking them down and quickly submitting them early. I actually think McKinney is a decent MMA wrestler. He took down and controlled Sean Woodson for the first round quite easily on the Contender Series.
The issue with McKinney is that he has never thrived in extended fights. His wins have ended early and so have his losses. Usually if the fight gets extended past a round or so, he just slows down and is very fragile and gets finished. His cardio and durability are clear issues.
I think we can still reliably expect McKinney to be dangerous early in fights standing or on the mat. He can definitely threaten with big shots on the feet or a grappling / submission storm. I just do not trust this guy when he faces adversity though. He is a good hammer but a terrible nail.
McKinney will be taking on 28-year old Argentinian fighter Esteban Ribovics. Ribovics is 12-1 professionally and is now 1-1 in the UFC.
On the regionals, Ribovics basically finished everyone that he fought early as his competition was terrible and outmatched. Ribovics generally knocked them out, but he does have some submissions in his career as well.
I mostly consider Ribovics a striker. He is aggressive and has good output and pace. He has good hooks, and I consider him a decent striker capable of winning exchanges in the UFC. I like his cardio and he has some sneaky power as well. He will thrive when he can just outpace his opponents.
I don’t consider Ribovics a great offensive grappler. Again, he has some submissions on the regional scene, but it was against awful fighters and it’s generally based around the kimora which is not a submission that works well at the higher levels. I don’t think he will outwrestle any average UFC level competition.
Ribovics also has defensive grappling issues. In his one UFC loss against Loik Radzhabov, he was taken down 11 times and controlled for 7:39. In his one UFC win against Kamuela Kirk, he was taken down 3 times and controlled for 6:20. He was put in really bad positions in those fights as well and was mounted, body triangled, etc. That just isn’t a good sign and good grapplers will surely expose Ribovics.
Ribovics did at least display toughness in those fights. He was put in bad spots but defended submissions, worked up at times and fought through it. He has never been finished in his UFC career and generally seems like a tough kid.
You can argue all Ribovics needs to do to beat McKinney is to survive. If Ribovics just doesn’t get finished early, he should win this fight. He is way tougher than McKinney down the stretch, with superior volume striking and cardio. All Ribovics has to do is extend this fight and this fight will likely get very ugly for McKinney. I think that probably will happen as I generally pick against first round finishes, so Ribovics being favored makes sense.
However, I am a little nervous here. McKinney is surely a better grappler than Ribovics when fresh, and I am quite confident that McKinney can get takedowns, obtain dominant positions, and put Ribovics in major danger. McKinney is honestly the best wrestler Ribovics has faced.
So if McKinney obtains a finish via a grappling storm, I would not be surprised at all. McKinney could also maybe knock Ribovics out early, but I am less worried about that outcome for Ribovics.
We know the drill here. McKinney is either going to get an early finish or likely lose. I do think McKinney will threaten and have success early with takedowns. Those takedowns resulting in a finish is tough to call. Ribovics was defending chokes well in other fights so I am going to pick Ribovics to survive. However, this fight seems sketchy as I don’t fully trust Ribovics on the mat here.
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On DraftKings, this is yet another fight that should have the public’s attention.
McKinney is widely known for his kill or be killed style, and the majority of his fights leave the winner contending for the optimal lineup.
He’s now priced at 7.3k, coming off back-to-back first-round KOs, and I feel he is likely going to be very popular this week.
It’s hard to dismiss him though, in any matchup. He’s aggressive early and has multiple avenues to finishing. He’s +180 to win ITD in this fight at a cheap price tag, with any sort of victory putting him in contention for the optimal.
At worst, you should be considering McKinney a strong secondary target, but at best, you could prioritize him outright.
Personally, I may fall somewhere in the middle. His early finishing upside is clear, and in a matchup where he can have grappling success, he’s clearly worth rostering. I’ll likely have moderate exposure, just like the field.
But there are so many interesting dogs this week. Cortes-Acosta is an awesome direct pivot right below, and I could see a half dozen other dogs winning as well. The high number of usable options could leave McKinney slightly less owned than normal, but also, it will make me prioritize him slightly less than normal as well, as I’d like to spread my exposure out to other targets.
Ultimately, McKinney is a very strong upside target for a cheap price, and he’ll rate out as a great large-field tournament play.
Ribovics is a bit trickier at 8.9k because he’s much less likely to have early success. McKinney has lost in round one, but he’s also lost three times in round two, and that’s where I think Ribovics is more likely to take over.
Because it’s not pure skill that’s an issue. Skill wise, McKinney is the better wrestler, and he’s probably a more dangerous knockout artist. Ribovics is better suited for an extended fight as he’s already proven.
And the longer the fight lasts, the less likely Ribovics is to put up an optimal score. I would feel a bit differently if he had a lot of grappling equity, but I see his success more likely coming on the feet.
It could still produce a decent result. A round two KO at 8.9k is far from the worst outcome you could receive. And he’s -150 to win ITD which is one of the better lines on this entire slate.
Because he’s below 9k, Ribovics is firmly in play and could also be prioritized outright. I just consider him less of a stand out at this price because I worry he’ll produce minimal offense early, and therefore a late-round finish may simply not be enough.
Overall, the fight is -800 to end ITD and based on the pacing of McKinney, the winner projects for a very strong floor and moderate ceiling as well, and both fighters will rate out very well individually.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ribovics by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington
Fight Odds: Ricci -133, Pennington +110
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Ricci 8.3k, Pennington 7.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Tabatha Ricci’s entering her fourth year on the active roster and looking to rebound from having her 4-fight win streak snapped last time out – she’s 4-2 in the UFC and 9-2 as a pro. Tecia (Torres) Pennington is one of the female UFC OGs who will be returning from a 2-year layoff after having a baby – she’s 9-6 in the UFC and 13-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Ricci’s a shorter girl at the weight class standing 5’1”, was a muay thai champ in her native Brazil (doesn’t mean much but something to note), and has been striking since she was 15.
However, she’s still developing as an MMA striker but she has at least shown aggressive components on the feet and can be accurate when she gets in tight. We hadn’t seen a ton of her at distance regionally, but she was winning the striking exchanges – her optics are also good in largely being the one going forward.
In the UFC, she debuted against Fiorot where she got butchered on the feet but considering the circumstances, really no shame in that. Not to mention that Fiorot is a big 125er and Ricci is a smaller 115er – Fiorot is also about to fight for a belt now – tough girl to draw in your debut.
Her fight against Oliveira also wasn’t particularly encouraging as she struggled with the length of Oliveira and was 2x’d at distance. The distance numbers were competitive against Viana though despite losing the striking, and not much happened in the Penne fight.
She looked good by and large on the feet against Robertson, but Robertson can’t really strike and still took the 2nd round from her standing – not encouraging.
I would say this is the area where there is the most improvement needed for Ricci as she’s still early on in her MMA career. However, I thought she fared better on the feet against Godinez than anticipated where she competed to a degree, but was outboxed at the end of the day.
Overall, I think she can be competitive standing/win in fights against lower to mid-tier strikers but will struggle with effective range games if she can’t work inside considering how small she is. But she does move a healthy amount and can have outside success against girls who can’t cut her off.
Pennington comes from a striking background where taekwondo was her first martial art, but she also transitioned into muay thai as well.
She’s a shorter girl who likes to use a lot of lateral movement and kicks specifically to the body. But because of her shorter stature though, she’s not an exclusive range-based fighter.
In fact, I’d argue some of her best work comes when she goes forward, flurries and stays on girls. This has been a pretty consistent theme for her especially in her more recent run.
Pennington cleanly winning the striking over Hill in her last fight was pretty impressive to me. Statistically, she lands 4.74 sig. strikes per minute at 48%, and 6.34 per minute at distance at 46%, so she’s been consistent and active standing throughout her career.
Pennington is going to beat a lot of girls who just don’t have an answer to her pressure as she does possess solid physicality despite her shorter frame. Same with those who can’t pressure effectively to cut her off because she can fight in all three ranges.
Piggy backing off of that, range-based games from higher level strikers have traditionally been the downfall of Pennington in fighting girls like Joanna, Rodriguez and Zhang – Andrade just beat her at her game, but Pennington had a good start there.
Defensively, her numbers are pretty good eating 3.59 sig. strikes per minute at 61% and 3.93 distance strikes per minute at 69%.
Her defense does kind of go out the window in the phone booth though, which needs to be noted but she is winning the large body of those exchanges.
Overall, we’ll see how Pennington looks in the return, but she was looking in career best form the two years prior and the only girls to outstrike her are the sitting champion, three former champions and another top 10 fighter.
How it plays out: Assuming Pennington didn’t lose a step in the time away, I like her on the feet here a decent amount. Pennington’s distance metrics are far superior to Ricci’s and despite only having one UFC knockdown, her shots take a greater impact than Ricci’s do. Coupled with Pennington being far more experienced as a striker in terms of facing the best this division has to offer. I do think Ricci’s striking is improving but it’s hard to see her losing a round standing to Gillian Robertson and getting out landed by Maria Oliveira to where I could project her to outland Pennington.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Ricci began training in Judo and BJJ in her teens and achieved black belt status in both disciplines in eight years – she also holds the accolades of winning IBJJF world titles in both gi and no gi (one of the highest credentialed grappling tournaments in the world outside of ADCC).
Ricci’s also been a training partner of Mackenzie Dern in the past, but I don’t think they spend too much time together anymore.
In MMA, she’s shown some good wrestling components in catching kicks, hitting doubles and she’s strong from body lock positions with trips/throws. However, a lot of her TDs are reactionary based and she doesn’t possess much chain wrestling – she really needs initial strong entries.
She averages about a little more than a minute of control per TD but is winning control time positions 94% of the time when her fights are in the grappling so far in the UFC.
In her first LFA fight, she was able to largely wrestle the girl for 15 minutes and in her next two she scored finishes from top position via a belly down armbar, and a TKO via strikes.
Against Oliveira, the floor was the big difference in the fight where she was able to land five TDs and rack up nearly seven minutes of control – she shot 11 times – her not being able to finish Oliveira was somewhat concerning though.
The floor was also a large component of her beating Viana, landing five TDs and accruing nine minutes of control. She was also able to submit Penne with a nice armbar transition – Penne is nothing special overall as a fighter at 39 years old, but she is a black belt so that’s a nice feather in the cap of Ricci.
She took Robertson down multiple times but didn’t do much with it. She most recently got shut out by Godinez going 0/6 but did have some deep shots early.
Her strength of competition has been lower in the aggregate, which needs to be noted but I do hold her ground game in higher regards in relation to the lower-mid tiers of WMMA.
Overall, the ground is what’s going to primarily win her fights in the UFC, but she has gotten shut down by some of the more capable girls she’s fought.
As noted, Pennington is a striker by nature, so we don’t see her wrestle much as her primary advantages have come standing – lands 0.66 TDs per 15 minutes at 14% — not much there.
It’s been the defensive wrestling that has given her some issues at points, stuffing at 61% — not bad, not good, but okay.
Waterson took a round from her wrestling, Andrade had some good success landing 10 TDs, Zhang was able to get to her back in transition and Van Buren did have some early grinding success but it didn’t translate throughout the fight.
She’s conceded TDs in some other fights, but girls haven’t been able to mount much meaningful success as she’s generally been a pretty good scrambler.
A testament to this is that she’s only landed nine TDs, conceded 23 but is actually slightly ahead on control time overall at 52%.
Despite only being a BJJ blue belt on paper, Pennington has never been submitted and she really showed off her defensive grappling chops last time out against Dern (elite black belt), defending a deeper kimura and knee bar attempt – the fight was close, but it was one I felt she deserved the nod in.
Overall, the floor has ultimately been more of a con than a pro for Pennington in terms of girls edging or taking rounds but since the Andrade fight, her TDD sits at 79% so she’s not going to be an easy girl to ground, keep there or finish.
How it plays out: This is where there is more merit to the Ricci side as she’s far more consistent to shoot TDs and has found ground success in the large bulk of her wins – coupled with just being a more credentialled grappler. So, I would project Ricci to land TDs in this fight but I’m really skeptical about her being able to control Pennington. Pennington doesn’t really accept being on the bottom and all the girls who Ricci’s outwrestled and/or finished have either accepted bottom positions or just don’t have much to offer from a defensive wrestling or jiu jitsu perspective. Ricci is a better wrestler than Dern but if Dern can’t submit Pennington, it’s pretty difficult for me to project Ricci to at any meaningful rate. Nonetheless, the large bulk of ground upside still lies on the Ricci side.
Super interesting fight as I’ll be curious to see how Pennington looks in the return. But if she shows up in similar form to as she did a few years back, I think this is a very winnable matchup for her. As noted, I’m skeptical about the control time that Ricci can rack up even if she’s landing multiple TDs (which isn’t a guarantee) and judges aren’t really scoring control like they used to. And then I like Pennington to win the striking exchanges in terms of doing more and landing the bigger shots. So, there’s some hesitation on the Pennington side for sure but I think she gets back in the win column on Saturday if she doesn’t show up like a shell.
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On DraftKings, this is another fight that won’t rate out particularly well, though I do like some aspects of it.
The fight itself is -350 to go the distance, and neither fighter projects as a big finishing threat in general. In that sense, we should expect a decision win and likely a score that won’t compete with the optimal.
With Ricci priced at 8.3k and Pennington priced at 7.9k, I don’t think either one should be a priority this week and it would be fine to mostly ignore it with a limited portfolio.
Ricci still has some merit though given her grappling upside. At 8.3k, if she’s going to win this fight, I do think it needs to come from grappling success. We have seen her land 3, 4, 5 and 5 takedowns in UFC bouts, so there’s some volume upside as well.
And because Pennington is a decent defensive grappler and is hard to hold down, I don’t think one takedown will be enough. It may take 4-5 takedowns for Ricci to earn enough control to swing rounds. That does give her upside.
I don’t think she’s going to pull it off though. More likely, she can land a couple and then she still falls short in the striking exchanges. Ricci is also +400 to win ITD which is pretty poor.
Still, grappling scores very well on DK and it’s led Ricci to scores of 93 and 100 in decisions. I’m not going to target Ricci very often but there’s some secondary viability based on her grappling style.
Pennington at 7.9k is my pick to win, just because I think she can neutralize some grappling exchanges and outwork Ricci on the feet, but I’m less convinced that can contend for the optimal.
At the same time, the overall pacing of this fight should be great. Both girls are active and should force exchanges. Projecting the winner for a decent floor makes sense.
But Pennington really has no grappling equity against Ricci, and her ITD line is +600. There’s some KO equity potentially but that’s minimal as well.
Most likely, Pennington will score in the 70-80 range and will just be surpassed by the other huge scores on this slate. She can be faded potentially with a limited number of lineups.
Neither girl should be very popular so there’s some contrarian merit here, but I think Ricci is the side I would lean toward for her grappling upside. Otherwise, there’s floor based merit but not enough upside to invest a whole lot in for tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pennington by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Billy Goff vs. Trey Waters
Fight Odds: Waters -156, Goff +135
Odds to Finish: -205
DraftKings Salaries: Waters 8.8k, Goff 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Trey Waters is a Contender Series alum who came up short back in 2022. But he got the call up as a short notice fill in last year making good on his debut – he’s 8-1 as a pro. Billy Goff is a fellow Contender Series alum who made good on his debut last year – he’s 9-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Waters comes from a striking background and is a massive 170er, standing 6’5” with a 77” reach. He’s more of a rangy/flowy type of a guy who likes to fight within the mid-range.
His output is okay, but he still has some sparring like rhythms to his game where he’s not really pacing guys unless he’s able to really be in the driver’s seat and not face much offense back his way.
He’s shown some explosive power components with two pretty brutal KOs in recent years but I’m still not 100% sold that he’s some conventional gigantic hitter, and more so will be looking to pepper shots – if the openings come, they come.
Defensively, he likes to fight with his hands down and primarily relies on slipping punches as his line of defense.
It’s largely worked out well for him in the sense of never being KO’d but he’s got dinged in a few fights and is still hittable in some capacities.
Overall, I think he’s a decent striker but doesn’t appear to be a guy who’s going to really be ahead on margins if fighting someone competent across from him.
Goff falls more into your “technical brawler” type category.
He’ll mix it up a bit at range but generally likes to pressure his opponents and fire off boxing combinations in the pocket. It’s when he’s been able to back his opponents up to fight within that phone booth where he’s found his most success.
His pacing will be high in targeting both the body and head, and he’ll also throw elbows within the clinch – one of his CES fights was stopped due to a cut.
Seven of his nine pro wins come via strikes but he’s not traditionally a “one hitter quitter” type and his stoppages are more some coming via accumulation in comparison to putting guys out cold. However, he put Kinoshita down in his UFC debut last time out with a well-placed shot to the body.
Defensively, there’s little head movement from him within the pocket as he wants to fight fire with fire, but he’s also been dropped twice at range – one with a straight and one with a lead high kick.
He was also getting boxed up early against Kinoshita. In his defense, he gritted through all three scenarios and went on to win those fights.
To make a somewhat loose comparison, Goff reminds me a bit of a younger version of Billy Quarantillo.
Overall, Goff can have some slower starts and isn’t a technical savant, but he’s not the type of fighter you want to let get into a rhythm or slow down against.
How it plays out: The obvious talking point from the jump is the size parity within the matchup as Waters will realize a 7” height and 5” reach advantage. So a bulk of what the stand up comes down to is whether Goff can find his way inside on Waters with more consistency because if he can’t, Waters in all likelihood will pick him apart at range if not hurt him and put him down. As noted though, I’m still not convinced that Waters is a gigantic hitter, but Goff’s been hurt a decent amount and can duck his head into shots where Waters could counter uppercuts or knees to potentially put Goff down. But if Goff can weather early, I do see some merit to him down the stretch in this fight if Waters slows under pressure. I don’t have too many strong historics to reference the following point but I think Waters is a breakable fighter when he’s not in the driver’s seat.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There isn’t much to say here with Waters because I’ve rarely seen him wrestle – logically makes sense given that he’s 6’5” – I also don’t know what his grappling credentials are.
He does have a couple submission wins but appears to be more of a guillotine guy than some conventional process/pass submission guy – he took Quinlan down at the end of their fight but was in the process of getting swept when the bell went off.
We saw him get taken down by Bonfim and threaten a pretty tight choke, but he didn’t get his legs involved at all and more or less von flue’d himself – probably the main fight to give me some indication that he’s not a great grappler.
Then going back to his fight prior against Bennett, he more or less got stuck on the cage for the better part of 15 minutes before Bennett ran into a knee with 20 seconds left in that fight. Bennett also didn’t really pursue that many conventional TDs, but we did see Waters stuff 7/8 shots from Quinlan last time out.
Overall, I’d like a bit larger of a Waters ground sample before making any definitive claims with him but his fights project to be standing more often than not.
Goff comes from a wrestling background where he competed at the Junior National level in his youth – I’m unsure if he wrestled collegiately though. He’s definitely a guy who likes to trade on the feet in his fights, but he has mixed wrestling into many contests as well.
In what I’ve seen, he doesn’t appear to be anything special as a wrestler but is capable. He’s also shown the ability to look to pass and gain dominant positions.
Goff hasn’t shown to present much submission upside, but he will be aggressive with GNP from the mount or half guard, and will still look to take backs.
Defensively, he hasn’t been tested much outside of his fight prior to the Contender Series where he got suplexed, his back taken and mounted.
In Goff’s defense, he survived the GNP and submission attempts and eventually was able to work his way back to guard despite not being able to work up to the feet in that round – that fight was also at 185 where he was fighting a bigger guy, up a weight class though for context – he actually finished the fight in the 2nd round via GNP.
Overall, Goff is capable on the ground but I’m curious to see how it translates to a UFC level – his regional strength of competition wasn’t bad though in comparison to some others.
How it plays out: I’d have to give a decent chunk of the ground equity to Goff as the guy that does come from a wrestling background and has found more general floor success throughout his career. But as noted, Goff isn’t anything special as a wrestler and Waters does have respectable TDD, so I don’t think it’s going to be easy for Goff to secure TDs – although I think we’ll see him pursue a decent amount given size parity. So I’m struggling a bit to quantify how much success Goff can actually have. We also haven’t seen Waters on his back all that much so it also begs the question of what his get up game will be like should he be grounded. Goff will have to look out for long man front chokes though on entry which is probably where Waters’ upside is, considering he’s not reliable to wrestle.
Pretty interesting fight here and one that I don’t have a great read on. I have a good understanding of both guys’ styles but determining how it’s actually going to play out is a bit trickier. I’ll take the dog in Billy Goff to weather some early adversity and force Waters into a fight I don’t think he’ll like, assuming Goff doesn’t get put down early. Like I said, I don’t like Goff getting hurt as much as he has, and he’ll now be fighting a much longer opponent, but the upside is there with the junkyard dog.
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On DraftKings, this is probably one of my favorites fights that could be overlooked.
Mostly, I love the pacing of Goff. He is willing to get hit to land shots, and he’s been hurt before. His pressure can also break opponents, ala Billy Quarantillo.
I was on Goff as a dog in his debut for similar reasons, and he came through, scoring 117 fantasy points. You would assume he’ll be popular now here, but I’m not sure that’s the case.
Largely due to the strength of the card, Goff is priced between Ruziboev and McKinney, who project as two of the more popular dogs on the slate. That doesn’t even include Hooper or Nascimento, to name others. They can’t all be highly owned.
Waters just won in his UFC debut and he’s never been knocked out, so I don’t think there’s a clear path for Goff smashing. He still rates out well though with a +265 ITD line at 7.4k.
Ultimately, what I like about Goff is the pacing, willingness to exchange and toughness. It’s going to lead to some big scores. He’s priced in a range where I don’t expect him to be super chalky and although it’s not an easy matchup, I still consider him a viable secondary option at least and a fighter who I’d want some exposure to on most slates.
Waters is probably one of my favorite contrarian targets on the slate. It’s tough to picture him being highly owned coming off a 78-point win, and priced right below Ribovics and Despaigne, with Buckley in that same range too.
Waters is going to look massive in there. He’s seven inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage. Goff will have to pressure and come inside, and I think someone will get hurt.
I don’t love Waters in general, and I may actually pick him to lose, but I do think he’ll have an opportunity to put Goff down early. He is +110 to win ITD and we have seen Goff hurt before.
At 8.8k, Waters will still be boom or bust, but he’s in a fight with strong pacing and his metrics are solid. His potential lower ownership intrigues me and I think he’s an excellent pivot in this range for tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Goff by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Charles Johnson vs. Jake Hadley
Fight Odds: Hadley -146, Johnson +127
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Hadley 8.6k, Johnson 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent lower-middle class matchup here between Charles Johnson and Jake Hadley.
Johnson is 3-4 in the UFC and I mostly consider him a striker. He attempts takedowns here and there. However, I don’t expect offensive wrestling to be a path to victory for him at this level.
I think Johnson is best as a striker. He is actually a decent boxer, and I do think he is slick from time to time with his hands. He lands 4.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.15 in return. I think he can win fights in the UFC in general. He also has okay power and is durable. He has never been knocked out or submitted in his career, though Maksum did just knock him down.
Johnson is an okay defensive wrestler but not he’s not great. He defends takedowns at 63 percent and was outwrestled badly by Muhammad Mokaev. Johnson at least can kind of defend takedowns, and looks to work up to his feet which I like. I didn’t like the end of his fight against Ode Osbourne though. He was taken down twice in round three, looked tired, and was controlled for over two minutes. It was a bad look.
He still showed some defensive wrestling resistance against Estevam and Maksum though. I think the best way to put it is that Johnson can be taken down and outwrestled by good wrestlers. However, he will make opponents work very hard to take and hold him down.
Johnson will be taking on Jake Hadley. Hadley is 10-2 professionally and has fought in some decent regional promotions like Cage Warriors. Hadley won on the Contender Series by getting a rear naked choke in the second round. Dana White decided to sign him even though it was a controversial decision because Hadley missed weight and was apparently rude to UFC staff.
Hadley is 2-2 in the UFC and I think he is okay. I mostly consider him a grappler and he has won many fights by submission. Apparently he is only a purple belt from what I read but I do think he is better than that.
I don’t consider Hadley’s wrestling all that good though. He lands 0.32 takedowns per 15 minutes and only attempts a little more than one takedown per fight. He generally likes to land takedowns and work his top game. He can either float on top in someone’s guard or take the back and lock in body triangles. He likes to take the back a lot and his RNC is his best submission.
Hadley has been taken down in some fights but I do think he has decent sweeps from bottom and he at least tries to work up which is a good sign.
On the feet, Hadley looks okay but I still just question his athleticism in general. He lands 3.42 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.20 in return. He will pressure opponents and look to land his one-two straight punch combination. Standing out of the southpaw stance, he will also mix in a rear kick. I think he looks okay on the feet but he’s nothing special either.
As far as this matchup goes, I honestly don’t think this is a matchup where Hadley should be a mild favorite. I just see Johnson stylistically giving him issues.
Johnson is hard to take and hold down, and is also extremely durable and has never been submitted. I really don’t think Hadley will submit Johnson or take him down and obtain a ton of control. Hadley may land a takedown or two, but I doubt he lands a ton of takedowns in general in this matchup. Hadley simply isn’t a tenacious wrestler like these other guys who have had success against Johnson.
So these two may just strike where I honestly probably favor Johnson. I don’t think Johnson is way better on the feet than Hadley or anything. However, I think Johnson is a bit more experienced than Hadley standing, with more volume and cardio upside. Rounds still will probably be close. However, I just think Johnson is a bit more proven on the feet.
So I am going to go with Johnson here. I think he can mitigate the wrestling success of Hadley and win a competitive striking fight here.
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On DraftKings, I mostly agree with Tim’s matchup analysis of the fight in which case it doesn’t lead me to want to roster either fighter at a high rate.
Hadley is probably preferred stylistically at 8.6k, and he could be an interesting contrarian option.
He has the grappling upside of the two, and his two wins in the UFC scored 105 and 109 DraftKings points. But he’s landed one takedown in his last five fights combined, so projecting him for much wrestling success doesn’t make sense.
Really, I want him to wrestle more often here, be surprisingly successful with it early, and then hope it translates into an immediate sub. If that happens, Hadley can be optimal.
I doubt he’ll be very popular so there’s some contrarian merit based on the grappling upside, but he’s only +300 to win ITD so he just won’t rate out well. I likely won’t roster him much.
Johnson at 7.6k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. In past matchups I’ve targeted him some because he can be high-volume at times, and so if he also wins by early KO, his upside is decent.
The KOs just don’t come though, and he rarely grapples. He’s +480 to win ITD in this fight which is poor. This doesn’t project as a matchup where he’d want to grapple, even though Hadley is a bad wrestler so theoretically Johnson could have some takedown upside.
More realistically, he will defend, and look to outbox Hadley on the outside. Scoring 70-80 points is the most realistic outcome in a win.
I don’t expect Johnson to be owned much at all though, so his pure chances of winning the fight at 7.6k give him some merit. I just question the fantasy ceiling and on a card where we’re likely to see big scores, I don’t think Johnson is a priority.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jared Gooden vs. Kevin Jousset
Fight Odds: Jousset -230, Gooden +193
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Jousset 9.2k, Gooden 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random matchup here between Kevin Jousset and Jared Gooden.
Jousset is now 2-0 in the UFC. He submitted Keifer Crosby in his UFC debut and then outstruck Song Kenan to a dominant decision.
Jousset seems like a decent fighter. He looks like a decent striker. He landed 121 distance strikes against Song Kenan and mixed in some good low kicks and a consistent jab. It was a good performance as he showed he can strike composed for 15 minutes and put up solid volume. I do question his power and athleticism though.
Furthermore, Jousset can grapple a little bit too. He took down Crosby and got a RNC. I want to see his grappling a bit more, but he looks competent in general.
I mostly just consider Jousset a volume guy on the feet and his grappling at least seems competent. I kind of want to see more of him going forward to evaluate him as a prospect.
Jousset will be paired up against Jared Gooden. Gooden is a friend of the program so I always cheer for him when he fights. He is a tough guy who tries very hard and has some power, so he can definitely sneak out some wins in the UFC. He had a nice come from behind win in his last fight against Wellington Turman.
However, I need to be objective when I analyze any fighter and I just don’t think Gooden has enough skills to compete against above-average opponents in this division.
I mostly consider Gooden a striker. He lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.68 in return. So it is good that he is landing a lot of strikes and trying very hard, but he just gets hit A LOT which is a dangerous game to play.
I will say though, Gooden is EXTREMELY tough so perhaps he can take more strikes than most of his opponents, so fighting wars can actually work out for him. In fact, Gooden has only been finished two times in 32 pro fights and he has fought some decent competition on the regionals, and a couple of decent fighters in the UFC. So that is a pretty good durability track record.
In summary, Gooden likes to strike but is not very technical, he tries hard and can land but he is also getting hit A LOT. Luckily, he is tough enough to give himself opportunities to land something big or compete to a degree in the striking rounds.
However, I don’t really trust Gooden to comfortably win rounds at this level unless he lands something big. He also just doesn’t strike me as a guy who will land takedowns and control UFC level opponents either. So yeah, I generally think he is limited to using his toughness to land something big to win by knockout or win a round via a knockdown. He won’t put emphasis on rounds really in any other way.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Jousset on the feet because of volume and defense. Gooden just gets hit too much, and my guess is Jousset will get ahead on the numbers and touch Gooden up a bit too much. He may even be able to land takedowns here. So I have to favor Jousset overall. My guess is Gooden will survive for a while though as he is very tough.
Gooden probably just needs to land something big. I don’t think his volume or takedowns are enough to score rounds, and he will probably be getting hit a lot and fall behind on the numbers. So Gooden is probably finish or bust here so I have to pick Jousset to win.
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On DraftKings, I actually like Jousset some and I think he’s a bit sneaky in that top end at 9.2k.
Jousset isn’t my favorite prospect, and I have some concerns with his style. He keeps his hands low and I think he may get hurt in the future. I don’t consider him a great wrestler.
This also isn’t the easiest matchup in that Gooden is well-rounded and experienced. But Jousset can land in volume and Gooden can be hit a lot.
Gooden has given up 168 sig. strikes to Jouban and 115 to Brown, so projecting Jousset to land at a high rate seems fair. That alone won’t be enough, but the upside comes with him also putting Gooden away.
Jousset is only +155 to win ITD which is fair, and I don’t think he’s overwhelmingly likely to get a knockout. But I do see the public targeting Rebecki and Ulberg ahead of Jousset in this range, as well as the cheaper options.
Gooden likes to push a pace and although Jousset is still arguably boom or bust, it does leave some upside for his ceiling if he’s able to find a finish. I am not going to prioritize Jousset but I’m mildly interested in him as a pivot in that top end.
Gooden at 7k has some intrigue, in the same sense as Jousset.
I expect the pace will be decent. If Gooden is able to find a KO, he’ll produce enough offense to give him a legit ceiling. He can also grapple but it’s tough to project much wrestling equity.
Gooden is only +325 to win ITD but for 7k at a low ownership, it’s not terrible. I did note in my debut writeup of Jousset that he could be susceptible to pressure. I am not sold Gooden can pressure effectively but it’s possible.
It’s still difficult to prioritize Gooden given the strength of the dogs on this card, and ultimately, I don’t think I’ll end up with much exposure. Jousset profiles as a type who will try to keep range and extend the fight.
I don’t want to count Gooden out but he’s mostly a low-end target for me that has some sprinkle viability with a larger portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jousset by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
JJ Aldrich vs. Veronica Hardy
Fight Odds: Hardy -131, Aldrich +114
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Hardy 8.2k, Aldrich 8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two southpaws here when Veronica Hardy takes on JJ Aldrich in the curtain jerker this weekend.
I have always thought Veronica Hardy was terrible. She’s a former 5x USA National Champion in Taekwondo, with a capable submission game as well.
She just always had a disjointed style and cardio issues. She had some raw skills, and speed here and there. However, she never impressed me and went 1-4 in her first five UFC fights.
Hardy then took three years off due to concussion issues, and she also married the fight legend Dan Hardy in that time, eventually returning to the cage against Julianna Miller in March of 2023. She was a huge underdog but surprised most people in that performance, including me, where she won by a dominant decision. She actually looked a little more calm on the feet and controlled distance well with footwork and lateral movement.
She picked her shots well, landing some occasional leg kicks and punches in the pocket. She fought at a measured pace. Hardy also landed four takedowns, rode out top position, and stopped all of the takedown attempts by Julianna Miller.
Look, Julianna Miller isn’t very good. I also still don’t think Hardy is very good either. However, Hardy did show some improvements in that fight. She at least has some technique and fought more calculated than in previous appearances. She just looked a bit more measured out there. Her cardio looked a bit better too because she actually fought thoughtfully.
Hardy then took on Jamey-Lyn Horth. Hardy won the first couple of rounds by fighting at the same measured pace on the feet. She picked her shots well on the feet by controlling range and sprinting in and out.
I still have questions about Hardy though. I don’t think she is all that great offensively anywhere. She also has shown cardio issues in the past. I also don’t like her bottom game in past fights either. However, she does have some skills and at least showed some improvement in her last two wins. She can probably pick off some wins here and there against the bottom tier women in the UFC.
Hardy will be taking on JJ Aldrich. Aldrich is an okay boxer and has a good one-two combination with her straight punches. She literally throws that same combo over and over. She lands 4.05 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.53 in return. She defends strikes at 60 percent. Aldrich is simply okay on the feet. She isn’t good but isn’t bad either.
Aldrich is a decent grappler. She only lands 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she is capable and topped out at four takedowns in her matchup against Cortney Casey which was promising to see.
In the fight against Casey, Aldrich also showed a good ability to float in top position, stay safe, and avoid submissions. She obtained 5:44 of control in that fight. Aldrich also showed that top game ability against Polyana Viana where she obtained 5:57 of control, and was able to stay safe and avoid the submissions of Viana. She did the same against Gillian Robertson.
As far as this matchup goes, this seems to be a well-matched fight. On the feet, these girls both fight in bursts with similar volume. I think the striking will be competitive.
I actually slightly lean toward Hardy standing though. I think she is a little more calculated now and may have a slight speed advantage with her in and out movement. Hardy also may hit a bit harder and more impactfully as well. I honestly lean Hardy in this matchup for those reasons, but this is close and rounds should be tight.
I tend to think both girls have good enough TDD to neutralize one another, so the grappling may be a wash. A takedown off a dumb caught kick or something could honestly be enormous in a matchup like this. However, it is hard to predict either girl to dominate on the mat.
I do tend to think Aldrich is harder to get down though so I probably favor Aldrich as the top time winner, although I don’t project either girl to have a ton of grappling success.
I really just think these girls are going to strike, and as mentioned above, I favor Hardy slightly because of speed and because she seems to hit a little harder. This should be a close one though and Hardy as a slight favorite makes sense to me.
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On DraftKings, we finally get a week where the preliminary opener is not a must-target, which of course means we’re going to get a random finish.
An extended fight is much more probable though, as Aldrich and Hardy have combined for only two victories ITD in 21 UFC bouts. The matchup currently sits at -400 to go the distance, which is about as high as we’ll ever see.
So, neither Aldrich nor Hardy will rate out well, and I expect both sides to be extremely low owned this week.
Hardy is priced at 8.2k, and she technically has the better ITD line at +400, which is still awful. She does have a dangerous kicking game, as well as a strong BJJ pedigree, but it’s still not likely to amount to much finishing equity.
Unless Hardy ends up on her back and throws up an armbar, I don’t see her flashing much grappling upside. Perhaps she can land a takedown, but her recent success of takedowns against weak competition probably won’t translate to Aldrich, who typically defends very well.
Aldrich has fought much better competition, and I actually think leaning in her direction for the win overall makes sense as well. She’s priced at 8k, with a +700 ITD line, and is not likely to produce a ton of offense.
Both sides have a small amount of wrestling upside but neither of Aldrich’s last two decision wins topped 70 points, and Hardy is coming off a 59-point win herself.
Most likely, this will be a slower-paced, calculated affair where neither reaches the 10x mark. Of the two, I’d lean slightly toward Hardy for contrarian upside if you want to take a unique shot, but I’ll be very low owned on this matchup in total.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aldrich by Decision (Confidence=Low)