UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy (5/18/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
Fight Odds: Murphy -136, Barboza +118
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Murphy 8.5k, Barboza 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
The UFC has set up a striker’s delight this weekend between Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy in the main event, which should be fun for as long as it lasts.
This is a big opportunity for Murphy especially, who has now won five consecutive fights and will be headlining a card for the first time. Barboza is the experienced veteran, who proved recently that he still has a lot left in the tank when he defeated Sodiq Yusuff over five rounds.
Barboza has been historically underrated by the public, though he struggles against certain types of opponents, and had a very difficult time competing with the wood-chippers at the top of the lightweight division years ago.
Most notably, Barboza doesn’t do a great job of scrambling back to his feet when he gets taken down. Fighters like Khabib and Kevin Lee and Bryce Mitchell have done well to take advantage of this.
He’s also been in enough wars that his durability is fading, and he will get knocked down on occasion.
That was clear against Yusuff last time out, who badly hurt Barboza in the first minute of the fight and nearly scored the knockout. However, Barboza survived, and came back to control the majority of the remaining 20 minutes, which is extremely impressive for a fighter now at 38 years old.
Barboza is simply a very good technical striker, who throws at a decent pace, and can attack all parts of the body. That style will continue to keep him live in most matchups and especially ones that play out on the feet.
His next challenge will be Lerone Murphy, who I’ve never been particularly high on and have always classified as a physical fighter more than a technician.
Murphy has had some odd matchups through his early UFC run. He earned a draw in his debut against Zubaira Tukhugov, and he’s won a pair of fights in which he was taken down five times. Most recently, he outclassed Joshua Culibao over three rounds.
In total, Murphy’s level of competition has been mediocre and I don’t feel great about his style translating to the upper echelon of the division.
He’s a competent striker with power, but he only lands 3.65 sig. strikes per minute. He’s done well to limit strikes against him, absorbing only 2.40 per minute. But he’s also faced several opponents who barely throw any strikes, like Tukhugov, Amirkhani, and Culibao.
Still, he’s come out ahead in the power spectrum and he’s hurt most opponents he’s faced. He was also dropped by Tukhugov, and hurt by both Santos and Culibao.
As far as his grappling, Murphy only defends takedowns at 46 percent. He’s done well to survive and scramble free though, but I wouldn’t really label him a dangerous grappler.
He’s coming off a three-takedown performance against Culibao, but still averages 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Overall, I think Murphy is fine, but I think he’ll be limited by his volume and by mediocre grappling game. Landing big power shots will be his best way to separate from opponents and I think he’s had a run of wins that won’t necessarily translate to the contenders in this division.
How will he fare against Barboza?
Most likely, Murphy will have some opportunities to land power strikes. Barboza has been knocked down seven times in his UFC career, and four of those times have been in his last four fights, which is concerning.
Especially if you go back and watch the fight against Yusuff, Barboza was badly hurt immediately. It’s just not a great sign and I think we can assume Barboza will be hurt again in the future.
For a fighter who’s as physical and powerful as Murphy, I do have to give him knockdown equity, and that could theoretically lead to a finish at any point.
Outside of that, Barboza should be able to stay competitive with Murphy for the duration, if not beat him outright. Barboza lands strikes at a higher clip of 4.18 per minute, and he just landed 164 sig. strikes in 25 minutes against Yusuff.
At distance, Barboza is landing 5.0 sig. strikes per minute and absorbing 4.4 per minute. Murphy is landing 4.8 per minute while absorbing 3.6. Barboza has 262 minutes tracked at distance though, while Murphy only has 35.
Barboza is also a super dangerous striker himself, who will light you up to the body and the legs, and he’s vastly more experienced against strong competition than Murphy. Plus, he just proved he had the cardio to go a solid five rounds, which Murphy has not yet proven.
Murphy has been hurt a few times as well so although I’d favor him in the damage and durability department, it’s not by a large margin.
I don’t think either fighter will have a ton of success grappling. Murphy’s takedown defense is worse but Barboza doesn’t really wrestle, and it would be tough to project him for more than a takedown in the matchup.
Murphy may have more wrestling upside but I’d be hesitant to rely on that path to victory for him, and projecting him for 1-3 takedowns over 25 minutes makes sense.
Mostly, I expect the winner of the fight to be the winner of the striking exchanges, and it’s hard for me not to lean toward Barboza in that case just given his large sample of success.
This is a very clear step up in competition for Murphy, and I usually like to see these guys prove it before I pick them to win in spots like this. With that said, I do think striking exchanges will be competitive and I think Murphy has early KO upside as well. Picking him to win doesn’t feel like a terrible take either.
I’ll side with Barboza to pull off his second consecutive main event upset over five rounds, but I think a competitive betting line makes sense with general variance and durability factored in.
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On DraftKings, both sides are clearly on the table with only 12 fights on the slate and I think the winner should compete for the optimal lineup.
Murphy is priced at 8.5k and although he rates out worse than Barboza in some regards, I do think a knockdown/knockout or multiple takedowns will be necessary for him to get his hand raised.
He is +210 to win ITD in the fight which is fine, and he’s clearly affordable. He hasn’t put up the best scores on DK thus far because he’s somewhat low volume and can be held down, but five rounds is a lot of action and I’d project him for a strong floor and moderate ceiling in a victory.
There aren’t many clear cut smash plays in this mid-range either, so I think prioritizing Murphy makes some sense. He should be a popular public target but with the five-round potential and some KO upside, Murphy is a strong play in all formats.
Barboza at 7.7k could be prioritized outright in the fight as well, and he too carries a +210 ITD line.
He’s coming off a win which scored 129 fantasy points, which would clearly be enough to be optimal at this price tag. Even if you take away the KD and the takedowns from that win, Barboza would have still put up 104 points, which I think would compete for the optimal as well.
There’s some risk on both sides with it being a pure striking fight which isn’t the best way to score, but Barboza likes to push a pace and I think we’ll see a lot of exchanges because of it.
Barboza is willing to throw with enough volume, and he has some KO equity of his own, that I’m pretty comfortable using him this week.
It doesn’t feel like the best matchup to take a stand though. The fight will likely be competitive on minutes and both sides have similar KO upside. I think I will lean toward Barboza based on pricing but it’s not a strong lean, and it wouldn’t be wrong to split your exposure somewhat down the middle.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barboza by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris
Fight Odds: Williams -126, Harris +109
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Williams 8.2k, Harris 8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Khaos Williams will be entering his 5th year on the active roster, and has largely had a good run – he’s 5-2 in the promotion and 14-3 as a pro. Carlston Harris is a guy who’s floated under the radar a bit, but has also proven his worth in his short time with the promotion – he’s 4-1 in the UFC and 19-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Williams came into the UFC with a bang, scoring two vicious KOs over Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan. We’ve seen him be very aggressive in certain outings but somewhat passive/blitzy in others.
I do attribute that to some of the guys he’s been fighting who’ve played more mid to outer range games though. But Williams does still land 5.77 sig. strikes per minute at 39%, and has a lot of power with seven of his 14 pro wins coming via KO.
We saw him KO Baeza late as well and even in his outings against Semelsberger and Brown – he hurt Semelsberger early, Brown early and knocked him down late. He’s also repping a positive distance differential of +0.6/minute.
However, he’s not a good defensive striker, eating 5.33 sig. strikes per minute with a 42% defensive rate.
To his credit, he’s an incredibly durable fighter, having never been KO’d in 32 amateur and pro fights. Williams’ strength of competition needs to be highly contextualized though as he’s fought essentially nothing but established mid-tier to fringe top 15 competition since entering the UFC.
Overall, Williams had made his striking style work for him and he’s primarily going to struggle with more rangy fighters.
Harris is a well-rounded guy who’s long for the weight class, standing 6’ tall with a 76” reach.
He’s nothing special as a striker but can manage distance well at times, has a solid jab and a crisp right hand, although his style is “rickety”. I would say his output is about average as when his fights are at range, they tend to be slower paced in general.
He came into the UFC and was able to hurt Aguilera and KO Kasanganay to send him packing – he only has five pro wins via KO but three of them have come in his last seven wins, so it does appear he’s putting things together better now.
However, in his last regional loss to Al-Silawi, he was KO’d, but that’s not a bad loss on paper per say. He also did get clipped with an uppercut in his debut by Aguilera which hurt him briefly, but he recovered.
The Rakhmonov fight was slower paced, but he eventually got put out with a spinning hook kick – no real shame as Rakhmonov is now a top 10 fighter. The 1st round standing against Gooden was pretty competitive as well.
So he has been tagged a few times now as his striking can be loose, and he will overextend on punches.
Overall, his best core competency on the feet is his ability to slow fights down and flurry because he’s never been “outworked” on the feet in the fights I’ve seen.
How it plays out: Both guys have some awkward tendencies in their striking styles that can make them susceptible coming in. But I ultimately side with Williams on the feet for three primary reasons. His volume patterns have been more consistent throughout his career, he’s the bigger hitter and the more durable fighter of the two. Williams is more hittable exchange to exchange, which does need to be noted, but I’ve seen him take shots from bigger historic hitters than Harris. Williams is pretty live for a KO in this spot despite not putting Bedoya down last time out.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There isn’t a ton to say with Williams on the floor considering he’s only shot one TD in the UFC which was unsuccessful.
Back on the regionals, he wrestled sparingly but it has aided him in winning a few fights – the guys he fought didn’t have many concepts of TDD though and he was largely just lay and pray in the guard. He got on top of Brown after hurting him a few times but didn’t establish much control.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on a ton but stuffs at 80%.
Pereira did jump on his neck standing at the end of the 2nd round though, and was able to secure a later TD in the fight but there wasn’t much time left on the clock – the first one he did land, Williams worked up quickly. He also stuffed all four TDAs from Brown and defended some front chokes on the cage – he’s never been submitted in his pro career.
Overall, it’s hard to assess the ground for Williams given our sample but the general historics suggest that you can primarily anticipate a striking fight for Williams.
Harris is a BJJ brown belt and Luta Livre black belt (Brazilian martial art that’s a combination of catch wrestling, jiu jitsu and judo). He’s pretty reliable to actively shoot a lot of TDs and is strong from the body lock.
From there, he does a good job of throwing off opponent’s weight distribution to gain wrestle rides and land trips. In the clinch and from top position, he can play the blanket game well with his longer frame and limbs.
He’s got six pro wins via submission and is a tricky grappler with a good front headlock series where he uses those long limbs well – he has two d’arce chokes and two anaconda chokes on his record.
He hit a really nice d’arce pre-UFC debut in his outing against Izagakhmaev as well and landed multiple TDs to boot (super tough now 22-2 Russian) — impressive W considering he was being brought in to lose.
He did get taken down at the end of the 1st round of that fight, but by and large dealt well with the wrestling from a tough Russian with good sambo and submission grappling. We also saw him wrap one up in his debut over Aguilera.
Against Rakhmonov, he got hit with a nice throw but popped up immediately. He grinded out Gooden, landing five TDs and racking up nearly 10 minutes of control time.
Most recently, he got outwrestled by Wells and was on route to losing a decision but Wells got tired down the stretch, shot a sloppy shot and got his neck wrapped up in the 3rd.
Overall, he’s not a world-class floor player by any means but he does have a respectable ground game.
How it plays out: This is where I’d give more merit to the Harris side just based on the fact that a bulk of his career successes overall have come with attritional wrestling or wrapping guys up. It leaves a tricky benchmarking issue though in the sense that we haven’t seen Williams wrestled in volume really and have very little footage of him on his back. So assessing how much ground success Harris can have is highly questionable – it could be a ton and the ultimate difference maker in the fight or he could get shut out by Williams entirely.
What I will say though is that I don’t think a submission from Harris is overtly high-percentage in this matchup because a bulk of those subs are reactionary based and I don’t project Williams to be wrestling here. Once again though, maybe Williams is a general fish on the bottom if his guard gets passed.
Fun fight that brings a decent degree of volatility. I lean more to the Williams side in the sense that every fight starts on the feet and feel he has more finish equity in this spot.
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On DraftKings, I’m fairly interested in this matchup due to the somewhat binary dynamics.
I consider Williams to be the higher volume striker, the harder hitter, and the more durable fighter of the two, and I think he has some knockout equity while the fight stays standing.
Harris likely needs to outwrestle him heavily or find a finish to win this fight. Either way, the winner projects to score well.
Williams is still probably boom or bust given that style at 8.2k, but he’s a fighter I’m willing to target. I don’t particularly trust Harris’ durability and Williams is +100 to win ITD, which is a strong metric.
He hasn’t topped 85 points in his last five fights, so I think there’s a chance the public overlooks him as well. It should also suggest why he falls into the boom or bust category, and so without a relatively early finish, I don’t expect Williams to be optimal.
Still, there’s enough KO upside on the table in my opinion to warrant secondary exposure and potentially come in above the field at his price tag.
Harris arguably has more upside based on his wrestling style. The concern for me really is that he’s only landed a takedown in one of his five UFC fights, so he just hasn’t been consistent enough with it and I’m pretty hesitant to trust in it.
He has had some early damage success though, so I suppose it’s an additional path to victory, but again, it’s not one I particularly trust. Regardless, I think Harris very likely wins ITD if he wins at all, and he’s +290 to win ITD in this matchup.
There’s not enough defensive wrestling evidence with Williams for me to be sure he can pass this test, so in that sense, Harris is definitely live and would be fine to target moderately or prioritize ahead of Williams. I don’t expect he’ll be massively owned.
I consider him a fine secondary target who I’d like exposure to, but probably closer to the field, and I think I will lean in the direction of Williams overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Williams by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Fight Odds: Gorimbo -144, Brahimaj +125
Odds to Finish: -225
DraftKings Salaries: Gorimbo 8.4k, Brahimaj 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
Themba Gorimbo has won the hearts of many with his story and personality, moving from Africa to fulfill his dream, while living and sleeping at the gym.
He’s had help and a ton of motivating circumstances along the way. Most notably, Gorimbo got the attention of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who gifted him a home prior to his last fight against Pete Rodriguez.
Gorimbo made good use of the media attention, and knocked out Rodriguez in just 32 seconds.
This week, he’s made more headlines, genuinely breaking down in tears during his pre-fight press conference because his coach’s mother passed away hours before. He wants to get this win for his coach, and I won’t be surprised to see him make good use of the extra motivation.
Update: More news has come out from Gorimbo’s side that he was recently scammed out of money he planned to use to build a library in his native Zimbabwe, which he is also using as a source of motivation to secure a performance of the night bonus.
Mostly, these are just pieces of news and tidbits that I find interesting to share, but I won’t factor it into my fight analysis too much.
And while I believe in Gorimbo’s worth ethic, and I like some of his base skills, I expect a tougher challenge this week against the grappler Ramiz Brahimaj.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Brahimaj in the Octagon, as he last competed in February 2022, submitting Micheal Gillmore in just two minutes. His other UFC win also came via quick submission, while his two losses have both been in extended fights.
It’s no surprise really. Brahimaj is 10-4 professionally at age 31 and he’s earned all 10 of his wins by submission, with the majority ending in the first round.
Shockingly, Brahimaj chose not to wrestle at all in his UFC debut against Max Griffin, and was outboxed for a few rounds before he had his ear torn off his head.
It was also a concern to see Court McGee outwrestle him in 2022, though McGee has always been known for his grit and cardio, he’s an aging veteran who has had major struggles in recent years.
Supposedly, Brahimaj had a pretty serious spinal injury after his last bout that almost derailed his career, and that’s why he’s been away for so long. He says he’s mentally grown from the incident, but it’s tough to be confident in his physical state.
Especially for a fighter who’s had all of his success come early in fights, I have to project him to be relatively dependent on early grappling to win. In that style, he is pretty decent though.
Brahimaj had a tendency to go balls to the wall early in fights on the regional scene, throwing heavy leather and shooting for takedowns. He has a decent series of chokes, which he’s shown within the UFC, ultimately taking the back and submitting both opponents with a RNC.
He’s physical enough to get fighters to the mat early and can probably continue to show off a good back take, but it’s hard to expect much more.
Gorimbo has seemingly thrived as a grinder, which is where you really see that work ethic pay off.
He was a fairly aggressive wrestler on the regional scene, and he’s showcased some grit in his UFC performances against AJ Fletcher and Takashi Sato.
With that said, Fletcher was able to snatch up a guillotine in the second round, and Sato was able to get Gorimbo down a couple of times as well. I had previously noted that his takedown defense looked poor on the regional scene, so it’s a concern for me in this matchup.
I expect Gorimbo will continue to make improvements, but in that Fletcher fight, he was giving up major position and he couldn’t really escape. It tells me that if Brahimaj can get Gormibo down, he’ll have legitimate control and finishing equity.
However, the longer the fight goes, the more it feels reasonable to favor Gorimbo.
Brahimaj was only able to land 45 distance strikes in 15 minutes against Griffin, and 25 against McGee. He’s being outstruck at 2.47 sig. strikes landed per minute vs. the 4.08 per minute absorbed, which isn’t great.
While I don’t have a ton of faith in Gorimbo’s volume either, I do think he’s likely to be fresher down the stretch, and he probably packs more power as well. He’s simply the more likely of the two to fight through adversity.
Watching Brahimaj give up five takedowns to McGee is a concern and it feels like Gorimbo has legit wrestling equity as well. I’d be a bit nervous for him in those exchanges because Brahimaj is the far superior submission grappler, but if Brahimaj is tired, he probably won’t threaten from the bottom.
There’s some high-variance aspects to this matchup given Gorimbo’s circumstances, and the injury, layoff and style of Brahimaj, but ultimately it feels like an early vs. late situation, with Brahimaj being the more likely party to excel early, and Gorimbo being more likely to excel late.
I tend to lean toward the better cardio in these situations but I am pretty nervous about the early minutes for Gorimbo, and I think it’s quite likely that Brahimaj can test him on the mat.
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On DraftKings, I actually think the more intriguing fighter to target is Brahimaj at 7.8k, given his early grappling upside.
His two wins in the UFC have scored 105 and 98, and that’s been the recipe to his success throughout his entire professional career.
I also have serious concerns about Gorimbo’s defensive grappling. Yes, he won’t quit and he’ll fight hard in return, but he’s already been subbed in the UFC. Brahimaj is +145 to win ITD which is great for this price tag, and his style should continue to lead to strong scores in wins.
There’s no particular reason to be confident in him winning, coming off the layoff and the injury, but I am pretty confident in his DK upside. I’m willing to target him as a strong secondary option and I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field in this spot either, despite the risk.
Gorimbo at 8.4k is the tougher fighter to analyze.
His last win scored 130 points but that’s because he won inside of one minute by KO. That’s not the most reasonable outcome to project.
His other victory scored 114 points, which came with three takedowns, two reversals and one knockdown.
I do think his style carries upside because he wrestles at a decent pace and is a hard worker, but I also think this is a tough matchup. Sato sucks at grappling so it wasn’t surprising to see him have success there. I’d be shocked if Gormibo could submit Brahimaj unless Brahimaj is truly gassed out.
It’s possible Gorimbo will look at the matchup and not want to wrestle at all.
He is +175 to win ITD here which is decent. Brahimaj giving up takedowns to McGee suggests that if Gorimbo does want to wrestle, he could have success doing so.
I have mixed feelings.
I think for the price, Gorimbo is fine. There’s enough elements in his game to like, and there’s some concerns with Brahimaj. But I also think there’s a reasonable chance Brahimaj could have success early or simply neutralize the grappling of Gorimbo, in which case he’d be fully limited to a KO, which makes me nervous.
If the field is going to smash Gorimbo based on box scores, I’d rather be underweight. Overall, I’d rate him as a high-variance secondary target who’s especially viable due to pricing.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gorimbo by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Adrian Yanez vs. Vinicius Salvador
Fight Odds: Yanez -380, Salvador +298
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Yanez 9.3k, Salvador 6.9k
Weight Class: 145
After starting his UFC career with five consecutive victories, Adrian Yanez has now been knocked out in back-to-back fights and will be desperate to get his hand raised on Saturday against Vinicius Salvador.
It’s unfortunate for Yanez, who was hyped to the moon after some impressive early knockouts, but he’s fallen back to earth in recent defeats to Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez.
Font did knock him out in the first round, but Martinez was able to stop the fight via leg kicks, which is a more forgivable loss.
Regardless, Yanez has shown enough upside as a boxer that I expect he can continue to have success in certain matchups, and this is probably a good bounce back spot for him against Salvador, who isn’t very technical.
Salvador won a contract on DWCS in 2022 with a KO victory over Shannon Ross, but has since dropped both of his UFC matchups to Victor Altamirano and CJ Vergara, two somewhat low-level opponents in this bantamweight division.
I wasn’t particularly high on Salvador entering the UFC, so I’m not too surprised he’s failed to come through.
Salvador has this terrible range game in which he uses a lot of flash, but lacks any technical defense whatsoever. He defends strikes by trying to back up and move his head out of the way of them, which is usually a recipe for disaster.
He also showboats a lot, and generally just doesn’t seem to be well processed. We’ve seen moments in both fights where this was a problem too. Salvador will back himself into the cage for fun and waive on his opponent, for no reason whatsoever.
He can be dangerous and aggressive on the feet, and that’s resulted in a large majority of wins via knockout in his career. But he’s just too wild.
He throws a lot of kicks and can throw volume with his hands as well, but he’s going to mostly thrive when he connects and can damage his opponent.
But he’s not a strong wrestler, and he’s too open with his hands. It creates defensive vulnerabilities and also prevents him from landing consistent offense.
Thus far, Salvador is landing 5.44 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 6.05 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate.
It’s hard not to picture Yanez having success here as he’s going to be far more technical, and should be able to take advantage of Salvador’s defensive lapses.
While Salvador will spin and tumble and do flashy crap, Yanez will just throw his basic, sharp combinations that should beat Salvador to the punch. I think there’s a pretty decent chance he hurts Salvador and finds a knockout.
I suppose the reason not to be overly confident in Yanez is just that he’s been hurt before. Getting dropped by Rob Font, who is known for point fighting, isn’t a particularly good look.
Yanez also barely defeated Davey Grant who is a bit wild as well, though with a different style than Salvador will bring.
Also, Yanez has not landed a takedown in the UFC so he doesn’t have paths to mix it up. He’ll need to go out there and box, and in that there’s inherent risk.
But I will easily side with Yanez to land more effectively throughout, and he should be the more likely side to land damage as well.
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On DraftKings, Yanez is priced up to 9.3k which makes him difficult to fully prioritize, given how boom or bust his fighting style will be.
We’ve seen him go a hard 15 minutes and land 100 strikes against Davey Grant. That will be irrelevant for DK purposes though. He only scored 70 points in that win.
Yanez will need an early knockout to be competitive with the optimal and I’m always fearful of dying on those hills at heavy price tags. He is -165 to win ITD though which is very strong, and it would be fine to prioritize him because of that metric alone.
Also, I do think it’s likely he lands cleanly on Salvador so I wouldn’t be shocked by the outcome. The top range this week isn’t incredible so leaning into Yanez as one of the better options makes sense.
If I have the salary to pay up, I’ll certainly consider Yanez. I just also consider him boom or bust, and it’s not likely I’ll end up much overweight to the field.
Salvador at 6.9k has viability but he’s not my favorite cheap end target this week.
Really, the only viability he has is in the sense of Yanez scrapping, creating high-variance exchanges, and possibly getting himself hurt. Salvador is aggressive enough to make it happen in theory.
I just am not particularly in the mood to bet on it. I don’t think he’ll win. He should be somewhat low owned though with some KO upside at +485 ITD.
If you want to use a small bit of Salvador for contrarian/dart/punt purposes in large fields, I think that’s fine. I don’t have much faith he comes through and I’ll mostly avoid him with a smaller portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yanez by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill
Fight Odds: Hill -144, Pinheiro +125
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Hill 8.3k, Pinheiro 7.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really good scrap on our hands here between UFC veteran Angela Hill and Luana Pinheiro. I could easily see this being the fight of the night.
Hill is basically a striker, and she is always live to win striking fights. She lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.94 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. I respect Hill on the feet. She fights hard and can always have success in the clinch. She is also just very tough and has good durability.
Hill doesn’t really land many takedowns but she has faced great competition and has fought a ton of grapplers recently. She only lands 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. She does defend takedowns at 75 percent which is solid, and I do think she has really improved her TDD over the years.
Hill can be controlled for stretches though. You saw that against Jandiroba and Dern in her last two losses. Those two are ELITE grapplers though and I have seen Hill scramble up fine against other fighters.
I just think Hill is a good competitor. She can strike in volume and is tough as nails. She also has decent takedown defense and is capable of taking down lower-tier fighters. I mean she outgrappled Loma Lookboonmee, and took down Denise Gomes five times in her last fight which was a career high by far.
Hill will be taking on Luana Pinheiro. Pinheiro comes from a Judo background and has a love for head-and-arm throws. She kept hitting that throw against Randa Markos and landed five takedowns because of it. I really don’t like those types of takedowns as it risks giving up your back.
Although I think Pinheiro can land that takedown here and there, I don’t think she will take down and control above-average grapplers at this level. Her top control is just not great.
I don’t know a ton about Pinheiro’s defensive grappling. I have really only seen her taken down once and she worked up just fine. She just hasn’t been tested defensively by any good grapplers, so that part of her game is an unknown.
As a striker, I do think Pinheiro has a little bit of power. She has hurt and finished some girls. She has somewhat powerful hands and some good leg kicks. However, her volume just isn’t there. In her two UFC decisions, she only landed 60 and 44 significant strikes.
Pinheiro also slows down. She can strike competitively early but I question her striking volume for a full 15 minutes. In her most recent matchup against Amanda Ribas, she was winning early but slowed down dramatically and got knocked out in round three. She was outlanded 87-55 in significant strikes and the discrepancy in strikes would have gotten wider had round three continued.
Overall, Pinheiro is a mild threat early and live to win early portions of fights. However, I do not trust her cardio at all and she does not strike well in volume for 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually like Hill in this matchup. I think Hill will have a major advantage in the second half of this fight and could really beat up Pinheiro down the stretch. I think Hill could have striking success or even grappling success against a tired Pinheiro.
I also just like the volume advantage of Hill in this matchup. We have seen Hill top 100 significant strikes several times, and I just doubt Pinheiro can keep up with that.
I still do think Pinheiro will do well early. Pinheiro may even win round one. She can probably strike competitively with Hill early or even land takedowns. However, I really think Hill will push a pace, and eventually Pinheiro will break. I just think the fight will be competitive early and then Hill will likely pull away heavily in the second and third rounds.
So I have to go with Hill here as her volume, cardio, and durability give her a tremendous floor in this matchup. I also think she has a high ceiling and could potentially finish Pinheiro later in this fight. You could argue betting Hill live is a better strategy than a pre-fight bet. However, I still think -130 for Hill is value and I think she probably should be more like -200.
—
On DraftKings, this is a weird spot because Hill traditionally has not been a great fantasy scorer.
With strong striking volume, but no grappling or finishing equity, her ceiling can only be so great. So for the large majority of her career, she’d put up DK scores like 63, 86, 77, 84, 64, 77, and 71.
However, most recently, she’s put up 104 and 109 in decisions, which has gotten her to the optimal at very low ownerships.
The former score was against Ducote, as Hill landed a whopping 182 sig. strikes in 15 minutes. The latter came with five takedowns and one reversal, where Hill had almost never even reached the two-takedown mark before.
I don’t think Hill can produce enough offense at a base level in this matchup to top 100 points again, but there’s much more merit if we see Pinheiro exhaust herself in the second half of the fight. When fighters get that tired, they really can’t defend themselves, and Hill is the type who could pour on offense.
So really, that’s the path. A close early portion of the fight, with decent offense. And then a takeover late.
She still won’t rate out well with a +600 ITD line and questionable grappling equity. I wouldn’t say it’s wrong to avoid Hill entirely because of that.
She’ll have a decent floor though for 8.3k. Scoring 80 or 85 points isn’t horrible, even if it’s not optimal. If you’d like to bet on a potential second-half surge, hopefully at a lower public ownership, I don’t mind that as well.
It’s still classified as a semi-contrarian spot, as Hill is much more of a floor play than a ceiling play, but there are ways for her to get there and I don’t hate mixing her in.
Pinheiro at 7.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot on face value, but if she wins, I think she’ll need to produce a fair amount of offense.
That, or randomly hurt Hill. Pinheiro is +450 to win ITD which is better than Hill’s number, but still not great. It’s not an outcome I’d really bet on.
I don’t think she’ll land enough volume to be optimal against Hill, but I’m also not sure volume alone would be enough. She’d need damage, or takedowns. Maybe she can land 3-5 takedowns, if Hill simply can’t stop her head-arm throws. Even if Hill just gets back up, I suppose volume grappling could be a path.
Eh, I really don’t like Pinheiro as a talent that much and I’m not particularly excited to roster her. I’d lean toward Hill being the moneyline value side of the matchup as well.
I’d consider Pinheiro to have a decent floor in a win but I’m really not confident in her ceiling and I probably won’t take many risks on her with a limited number of lineups. If you have a larger portfolio and want to work her in as a low-end secondary target, that’s probably acceptable.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Victor Martinez vs. Tom Nolan
Fight Odds: Nolan -475, Martinez +358
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Nolan 9.5k, Martinez 6.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming up short in his UFC debut, I am actually interested to see Tom Nolan make a comeback this weekend against Victor Martinez.
Nolan fought Nikolas Motta earlier this year in his UFC debut, and after having some success in the early striking exchanges, he got knocked out. I kind of just chalk that knockout up to randomness and a reasonable result given Nolan’s aggressive and sometimes reckless fighting style.
Nolan is now 6-1 professionally and fights out of Australia. He booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out his Contender Series opponent. Before that, Nolan basically dominated his competition in Eternal MMA which is basically a crappy Australian promotion which I don’t have much respect for.
Nolan is definitely unproven with no meaningful wins. However, I do like his style of fighting and I do think it can translate to wins in the UFC. He is super aggressive and long, and throws a nasty body kick out of the southpaw stance.
He kind of looks like Carlos Condit. Their fighting styles or appearance aren’t the same, but their stances / lengthy builds and the way they aggressively pursue their opponents on the feet are similar.
Anyway, I like Nolan on the feet generally as he is aggressive and just looks to throw everything at his opponent. He gives his opponents no room and will attack them with all limbs. His defense is DEFINITELY suspect though and he will likely be knocked out again given how aggressive and reckless he is. Still though, I think Nolan can win fights at this level with aggression and output alone.
Nolan will also look to land takedowns, and pursue front chokes or land ground-and-pound. He doesn’t look like a great submission grappler to me, but he generally knows what he is doing on the mat. I believe he’s a brown belt in jiu-jitsu.
Nolan doesn’t look like a great takedown artist though. Furthermore, I do question his defensive wrestling a bit as I have seen him taken down and controlled on the regional scene. My guess is good wrestlers will have success against him.
Nolan will be taking on Victor Martinez. Martinez is 13-5 professionally and is basically a regional promotion journeyman. I don’t think he is all that great and his days in the UFC are likely limited.
Martinez booked his ticket to the UFC by winning a decision on the Contender Series. He mildly outboxed and outworked his opponent in a fight that generally took place on the feet. Martinez outlanded his opponent 144-113 in significant strikes. He then was knocked out in his UFC debut by Jordan Leavitt which was a terrible look.
I mostly classify Martinez as a guy who can mildly box. He does seem somewhat tough and he can at least fight for 15 minutes and keep up some striking consistency.
However, I don’t think Martinez has much to his game other than that. He doesn’t look like much of an offensive wrestler or a submission threat. He actually has no submission wins in his career. I also question his athleticism.
He is also only 5’8” and isn’t a very fast guy. He does at least defend takedowns competently and tries to work up from bottom position. I have seen him taken down here and there though and question his defensive grappling to a degree though.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Nolan is the rightful favorite because he is more talented and the bigger fighter. Nolan is going to have seven inches of height on Martinez which should surely help him control some range. I also just think Nolan is faster than Martinez and will definitely land some big shots here.
I also question Martinez’s durability as he has been knocked out and hurt several times. I think there is a good chance Nolan just quickly overwhelms Martinez and knocks him out. I also think Nolan has the grappling upside in this matchup because he generally pursues takedowns more than Martinez.
However, I do think this betting line is a bit wide given Nolan’s fighting style.
Nolan is just so aggressive and was recently knocked out, and he was knocked out on the amateurs as well. Nolan is offensively potent but he is defensively void and keeps his head straight in the air. Martinez can crack a bit and mildly box, so If Nolan got knocked out in a high-variance exchange, I would not be surprised.
So I do think Martinez can win this fight simply because Nolan is hittable and has been knocked dead before. Still though, Nolan has physical advantages and seems like the more talented fighter. I will pick Nolan to win for those reasons. This should be a fun one though as Nolan will come after Martinez and someone will likely get finished at some point.
—
On DraftKings, Nolan is priced up as the second heaviest favorite on the slate at 9.5k, which is pretty crazy considering he was starched in a minute by Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut.
However, Victor Martinez was starched in the first round by Jordan Leavitt in his UFC debut, which is arguably much worse.
I really liked the aggressive nature of Nolan’s game coming into the UFC, though I did note that I expected him to get hurt in losses. So it wasn’t terribly surprising to see that come to fruition, though I was pretty firm in backing him in that spot.
Now, I’m hesitant. Will he fight less aggressively, and weaken his style? Or will he fight similarly, and continue to put himself in defensive risk.
There is a decent amount of variance tied into this matchup but ultimately, I like the projected pace. Nolan has been willing to go at it for his entire career, both on the feet and on the mat, and I expect that to continue to result in finishes when he wins.
He’s now facing an opponent who was dropped on DWCS, dropped by Leavitt, and has shown some weaknesses on the mat as well. I think there’s a pretty realistic chance that Nolan can find a finish if he wins at all, and he’s a heavy -220 ITD in this matchup.
So, despite the risk, I think Nolan is a clear upside target this week and I’m willing to go back to the well. He could be popular due to his metrics, but also, the pricing and his recent loss will definitely scare some away.
I would not line him at -500 personally and I think he’s probably being overvalued on the betting markets, but ultimately, it’s probably worth chasing his finishing upside and therefore I consider him a strong tournament target.
Martinez at 6.7k is honestly in play as well. The guy is actually a decent fundamental boxer, and there’s enough variance in striking exchanges for him to potentially survive and land something big. Motta just did, and Motta isn’t good.
I also think Martinez could theoretically win rounds with boxing, though he’s probably the more likely of the two to get hurt, and he might get outgrappled as well. If Nolan is aggressive and pushes a pace, we’re just probably going to see someone get hurt. I wouldn’t fully count Martinez out.
At 6.7k, with a +425 ITD line, I think Martinez is a viable punt option this week. There’s not much to love about his game but the pacing of this matchup presents upside, and I wouldn’t mind a sprinkle of exposure in tournaments in a matchup that will be high-variance.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nolan by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Oumar Sy vs. Tuco Tokkos
Fight Odds: Sy -400, Tokkos +311
Odds to Finish: Under 1.5 -154
DraftKings Salaries: Sy 9.6k, Tokkos 6.6k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two debuting light heavyweights here as Oumar Sy will be taking on Tuco Tokkos.
Sy had two other opponents pull out and Tokkos is taking this fight on extremely short notice, so Sy already has an advantage going into this fight having a full fight camp.
Sy is 9-0 professionally and fights out of France. He is actually the brother of Sadibou Sy who is a pretty well-known fighter in PFL.
Sy has generally fought in random regional promotions like KSW which is respectable. He has a win over UFC veteran Luis Henrique da Silva which is so random as I forgot da Silva even existed.
I actually think Sy looks decent. He is very green, but he is a good athlete. He can strike a bit and stay safe and has some power in his hands.
Ultimately, Sy likes to shoot takedowns and obtain top position. He is actually pretty good at riding the back, floating with hooks in and can threaten with RNCs as well. He actually uses cross-body wrist rides well to land ground-and-pound and manipulate his opponents.
I do think Sy needs some time to develop though, but his athleticism and decent wrestling game should be enough for him to win some UFC fights. I also like that I have seen him fight for 15 minutes without slowing down.
I still think Sy is very green and untested and hasn’t faced much adversity, so I will have questions when he gets steps up in competition. However, I do think he has a decent game and I am interested to see what he does in the UFC.
Sy will be taking on Tuco Tokkos. Tokkos is a British fighter and is 10-3 professionally. He has a decent amount of experience and has fought in Bellator and the Road to UFC. He has generally lost fights when he has gotten steps up in competition though.
Tokkos is a bit of a freestyle fighter. He honestly isn’t that bad. He can stay tough on the feet and strike a bit, and put together some alright boxing combinations. I also think he is an okay grappler with decent BJJ. He can land takedowns against the cage and threaten people on the mat.
The issue with Tokkos is he is not great anywhere and he lacks athleticism. He isn’t a great striker and he isn’t a great grappler. He also just lacks speed as well. He has also been knocked out and can be hurt, and Zhang Mingyang put him away in round one in 2022.
Tokkos’ defensive grappling is a bit untested too. I have seen him taken down here and there. I tend to think decent wrestlers will have success against him. I am not sure though. I do think he looks like he can survive if he is taken down though.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Sy is a much better athlete and he had a full camp, so I will definitely pick him to win this matchup.
Tokkos’ defensive wrestling is really going to be critical here to determine the true odds in this matchup. Sy likes to wrestle and if Sy can land a healthy dosage of takedowns and consolidate top position, he should cruise in this matchup and justify his betting line. I am leaning towards that happening. Sy also may just hurt Tokkos on the feet as Sy is a much better athlete and Tokkos has been hurt many times.
However, Tokkos may be able to defend himself on the mat more than some of Sy’s previous opponents. Tokkos may be able to land takedowns himself or test Sy on the feet. I at least think Tokkos can audit some of Sy’s defensive skills in ways Sy’s previous opponents couldn’t, so Tokkos outperforming his betting line seems possible to me. Tokkos may just find a hole in Sy’s game in general.
Sy is so much more talented as an athlete and does have a pretty good takedown game though. So I think Sy will pass the test here and get the win.
—
On DraftKings, I’m pretty pissed that Sy was priced in so late after his betting line moved, and he’s now priced in at 9.6k.
Partially, I wasn’t expecting him to be super popular, and I wasn’t expecting him to be -500. Now if I want to play him, I have to spend up a ton, which is annoying. However, I suppose this price tag will keep his ownership in check.
Ultimately, what I like about Sy is that he’s a consistent volume wrestler. I don’t love his finishing ability, but I do think he’s the type who can land 5+ takedowns over 15 minutes.
So from a DK perspective, he’ll carry upside each time he fights, just based on his style.
I am somewhat nervous about the spot though because I have seen almost no striking exchanges from Sy to suggest he can win rounds at this level. It honestly may be a liability for him, and at this point I think I would project him to lose by KO when he loses.
His submission upside feels very questionable to me as well. Holding down some awful regional scene guys isn’t a fair test. However, I agree that he’s a great base athlete and I like what I see as far as pure wrestling.
We won’t get ITD lines for a while but the Under 1.5 rounds is -154. I think that more speaks to this fight being short notice, and Sy being a heavy favorite, rather than Sy being some great finisher.
But he will rate out well because of it.
As of writing, it feels like the top tier of the top range is Sy, Nolan and Yanez, in no particular order. The latter two have more early KO upside on paper, and Sy will be the dominant wrestler of the group.
I do not feel comfortable with Sy at this betting line, but I do want to target him based on his style. I think he’ll carry one of the best floors on the slate in a win, and perhaps elite upside as well if he can find a finish on the mat.
If I have the salary to spend up, I’ll aim to target Sy moderately, though I expect there will be occasions where I cannot afford him, and pivoting to the other names mentioned is totally fine as well.
Tokkos at 6.6k is viable but only really based on narrative.
He’s currently a huge underdog at +311 and taking the fight on very short notice. He probably gets held down for a while. I don’t think he’s technical either and doesn’t project as a talent who will win much at this level.
My only real hesitation is that from the glimpses I’ve seen of Sy on the feet, he looks uncomfortable and hittable. Tokkos is at least experienced, and could possibly survive on the ground better than some of Sy’s past opponents.
So I think there’s some room for Sy to look good early, but not get Tokkos out of there, and for Tokkos to come back and hurt Sy on the feet. Punting with him at a small percent for leverage and ITD potential is fine, but there’s no reason for me to recommend much more than that.
I likely will just pass and cross my fingers with a more limited portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sy by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Tamires Vidal vs. Melissa Gatto
Fight Odds: Gatto -325, Vidal +265
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Gatto 9.4k, Vidal 6.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Tamires Vidal is still early on in her UFC run but hasn’t been super active since entering the promotion due to fight cancellations – she’s 1-1 in the UFC and 7-2 as a pro. Melissa Gatto entered the UFC back in 2021 to where she’s had mixed results. She’ll be coming in on roughly three weeks’ notice to replace Haily Cowen up at 135lbs.
The striking component:
We don’t have much extended footage on the feet for Vidal so it’s still difficult to make a strong assessment. Back regionally, she’s been low volume and relied on overhand rights.
However, in her debut with Pascual, we saw her throw kicks for essentially the first time to both the legs and body – she then obviously landed the big jump knee to the body, folding her. But she hadn’t shown any real “power” capabilities up until that point.
Most recently, she won the 1st round via leg kicks against Rendon so apparently kicking is now a part of her game. But she got outlanded to the head 45-17 in totality.
She also got hit clean a few times against Pascual and lost the striking exchanges to both Perez and Braga back regionally. That’s about all there is to say with her standing at this point in time.
Gatto’s a weird case study off the top considering that she appears to have leveled up since her regional days.
The amount of stand up we’ve seen in recent years from her hasn’t been extensive, but she is a long girl with some snappy straight punches.
We saw her get the better of the boxing against Leonardo, nearly 2xing her at distance and landing above a 50% clip. Granted, Leonardo is a punching bag and was fighting with one arm – take that for what you will.
We saw little stand-up time against Eubanks, but she did land some good straight shots and ultimately put Eubanks down with a body kick in the 3rd round – pretty memey finish but nonetheless she threw the strike and put her down.
She also got the better of the exchanges against Cortez in the minimal time that fight was on the feet.
Most recently, she out landed Lipski 70-53 at distance and got the better of the clinch striking, but really lost on round sequencing/optics. Her going backward for larger chunks of that fight just didn’t look good but the scorecards were all over the place and scoring that fight for Gatto was justifiable in many people’s eyes.
Defensively, she appears to still have hittable tendencies but she will move on the outside as well.
Overall, Gatto isn’t a world beater on the feet but she’s a scrappy girl and has clearly made evolutions in the last 3-4 years. You can say what you want about Lipski but outlanding her is still a good historic.
How it plays out: Despite Gatto coming up in weight, she’s not going to be undersized here and will actually have a 1” reach edge. Both girls are hittable but Gatto’s the better striker here, more specifically in the boxing. There’s actually some semblance of process to Gatto’s striking whereas there really isn’t much for Vidal. So barring Gatto getting clipped with some random explosive strike or being compromised by leg kicks, she should win on the feet.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Vidal has gone to cage pushing in quite a few outings and has landed TDs here and there, but her general wrestling acumen is poor as she largely relies on muscling girls down.
She’s been able to work into mount in a few different fights and is a BJJ brown belt. However, there’s little that I’ve seen to suggest that she’s a “true” brown belt.
She heel-hooked Braga in her outing prior to the UFC but that was due to the girl not having any concept of leg lock defense – the general set up was sloppy as shit too.
But to her credit, the grinding has aided in her winning minutes in certain outings. She beat a girl in Jindrova who now fights in PFL, so that was a respectable win in relation to the level.
She lost to now UFC fighter Karol Rosa where she got submitted – no shame as Rosa is a good fighter.
But she also got dominated on the ground by Ailin Perez who’s nothing special – Perez fouled her three times and got DQ’d but Perez was on her way to winning that fight clean. Most recently, it was wrestling from Rendon in the back half of the fight that ultimately beat her – Rendon is not a very good wrestler either.
Overall, everything in regards to her ground game both offensively and defensively looks sloppy to me.
Gatto is a grappler by base repping a BJJ brown belt and has finished four of her eight pro wins via submission.
We saw her hit an inside trip on Leonardo and attempt the same against Eubanks but overall, she isn’t a very good wrestler. She took Cortez down a handful of times from body lock positions though, who’s a base wrestler, but she struggled with maintaining control positions.
The primary merit to Gatto has been from bottom as she’s shown an aggressive guard.
She was able to transition to Leonardo’s back at points and was able to sweep Eubanks in the 2nd round of their fight and ride the round out on top. It was a pretty basic elevator sweep that I more so attribute her getting due to Eubanks being exhausted, but nonetheless, still pretty impressive to sweep a girl like Eubanks.
Despite her aggressive guard and longer limbs, my issue with her is that she will play guard and is submission over position.
We saw this back regionally for her as well as she’s content to sit there, which just isn’t a great characteristic to have because if those sweeps/submissions don’t come, you’re dropping rounds in many scenarios – although judges are warming up to awarding rounds to fighters on bottom now more than ever.
She was ultimately grinded out by Cortez and spent a little time on her back late against Lipski off a failed throw in a critical round.
Overall, Gatto has better jiu-jitsu than I’ve given her credit for in the past but I’m still of the opinion she can be locked down by better positional players, and will continue to lose minutes there should she be grounded.
How it plays out: Both girls aren’t very good wrestlers but there are just better historical grappling benchmarks for Gatto in comparison to Vidal, despite the issues I still have with Gatto. Like she took Cortez down three times who’s a good wrestler, swept a black belt in Eubanks and submitted a black belt in Karol Rosa. I really don’t think Vidal is submitting Gatto whereas I think it’s in play the other way around. The concern on the Gatto side is if Vidal is able to land TDs and rack up top minutes whilst avoiding subs or sweeps – in theory she could win rounds that way. But Gatto is the better ground fighter here.
Vidal is only 25 years old so there’s still definite margin for improvement with her, but it shows the state of the women’s 135 lb division because I don’t really think she’s UFC level. Despite all the expressed concerns on the Gatto side and me not being as high on Gatto generally as a lot of other people are, she is an established middle of the pack/fringe top 15 girl at this point, so I also think it’s somewhat of a “levels fight” to a degree.
Gatto’s also fought the bulk of her career at 135lbs pre-UFC and was always a big 125er, so I don’t have a ton of concerns for her in relation to physicality in this spot. Picking a method is tricky here because I wouldn’t be shocked with a decision or finish from Gatto but she’s the deserved favorite.
—
On DraftKings, I don’t expect much excitement by this matchup, especially as Gatto is absurdly priced up to 9.4k, and that will firmly put her into the contrarian category.
Her UFC debut win scored 117 points, but that came with takedowns, reversals and an early knockout. Otherwise, she’s scored 82 in her lone decision win, and she would have scored 72 had her hand gotten raised in either of her last matchups.
It’s simply not enough. Volume won’t be enough. Maybe she can get there with a higher degree of wrestling but that’s uncertain in a top range with so much better finishing equity. Gatto is only +105 to win ITD here, which to be honest is really good compared to what I’d expect.
I think it gives some contrarian credence to Gatto, at what will probably be a sub-15 percent public ownership. If you want to use her for that reason alone, I understand.
But at a base level, I’m expecting an extended fight, with moderate volume, and limited offensive grappling for Gatto. I would much rather invest in the higher profile finishers in this range and I probably will choose to avoid Gatto for the most part.
Vidal at 6.8k has some viability as a low-level women’s MMA dog, which is a category that seems to come through more often than not. I’ve also been very low on Vidal through her early UFC career and already cashed out on her losing as a big favorite.
I’m not expecting incredible volume here, nor does a knockout feel realistic. She’s +975 to win ITD which is awful.
The best argument I can make is for her to land takedowns and just hold Gatto down, and win a couple of close rounds. She just doesn’t rate out well as an extended fighter though, so I’m pretty hesitant to buy into that.
Using Vidal as a low-end sprinkle due to WMMA variance and pricing is fine, but I don’t have a great feeling about her floor and ceiling, and I’ll mostly avoid her. She’s semi-viable as a floor based punt I guess. I won’t be willing to target her much outside of that aspect, though the fight being somewhat close over the duration is on the table.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gatto by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Abus Magomedov vs. Warlley Alves
Fight Odds: Magomedov -277, Alves +227
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Magomedov 9k, Alves 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am glad Abus Magomedov is getting a step down in competition this weekend when he takes on Warlley Alves. I think he got thrown to the wolves a little too soon in his last two matchups. I will enjoy seeing him fight guys closer to his level as I think he is an entertaining fighter to watch.
Magomedov came into the UFC and knocked Dustin Stoltzfus dead in his UFC debut. He then got a huge step up in competition and fought Sean Strickland in a main event spot where I bet Strickland heavily.
Magomedov had some success early against Strickland but slowed down terribly and got absolutely destroyed and finished. That fight was fought at a crazy pace though, and Strickland forces fighters to empty the gas tank so I don’t necessarily think Magomedov will gas in five minutes every fight, as I have seen him fight 15 minutes before at a more measured pace.
Magomedov then fought Caio Borralho and lost a clean decision. Borralho is a good fighter so I honestly don’t fault Magomedov much for that loss either. Magomedov fought competitively for a while and took a round off of Borralho, but eventually he just couldn’t keep up.
Magomedov actually fought in the PFL and was a tournament favorite in the organization’s first season. He made it to the finals and was randomly knocked out by Louis Taylor in round one. His competition has not been stellar, but he does have some decent wins including a decision victory over Sabidou Sy who isn’t bad.
Although he is Russian, I mostly consider Magomedov a striker. He is long and lengthy at 6’2” with a 78 inch each. He manages distance well on the feet and he is a pretty slick striker. He has some good stabbing front kicks standing out of the orthodox stance. He also has a jab and can mix in hooks and straight punches. I also consider him to have moderate power, and I do think he is knockout capable at this level.
Magomedov will grapple here and there. He actually has a lot of wins by submission, and I consider him an opportunistic submission grappler. He really likes going to power guillotines when his opponents shoot in or if they are hurt.
Magomedov seems to have decent TDD. However, he hasn’t been tested by a ton of good grapplers though. So I am not super confident in how good it is. It seems decent and competent to me, but if he got exposed on the mat against decent UFC level grapplers, I wouldn’t be shocked.
At this point, I consider Magomedov to be a competent fighter and someone who is very dangerous early with knockouts and opportunistic submissions. However, he definitely has cardio issues when opponents push a pace on him. So cardio will always be something that concerns me with him.
Magomedov will be taking on UFC veteran Warlley Alves. When I think of Alves, I think of a powerful and opportunistic fighter early in fights. He is capable of finishing fighters early. However, I don’t trust him the more fights extend. He is 2-5 in his last seven and has been finished four times in that span, while he has won by knockout in both wins.
Alves will always have opportunities to win fights early. He hits very hard and has a nasty guillotine choke. He actually submitted Colby Covington with it about seven years ago. He also defends takedowns at a solid 80 percent.
However, this guy’s metrics just aren’t great, and I don’t totally trust him to battle through adversity. He lands 3.25 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.21 in return. He lands 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes. He doesn’t land a ton of aggregate offense in general and when he starts losing, it just tends to go downhill for him. James Krause walked him down with pressure and just beat the crap out of him.
Alves did just lose to Nicolas Dalby by split decision, and his cardio held up a bit better than usual though. He actually won round three. He was still outlanded 167-75 in strikes though.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think I will lean toward Magomedov. He is bigger than Alves, and I do think he is a bit more talented overall. I think Magomedov will be at a striking advantage early as well. I think there is just a really good chance he knocks out Alves early in this fight.
However, I do think this line is a bit too wide. Magomedov’s cardio is just too suspect for me to ever be comfortable with him as this heavy of a favorite. Alves doesn’t generally push a pace so Magomedov may hold up just fine.
However, when two guys who generally gas face off, I think it is just hard to predict the flow of the fight. You don’t know who will get tired first, etc. Alves is also just a dangerous guy himself with power and guillotines, so he has avenues to win this fight.
I still do think Magomedov is a more talented fighter and more dangerous when these guys are fresh. So I will pick him to win. However, this fight could get very messy down the stretch and turn into a complete shitshow so I am just going to be an observer with my feet kicked back here from a betting perspective.
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On DraftKings, this is another matchup I quite like as both fighters seem vulnerable to getting finished.
The biggest concern I have is that if both get tired, it’s possible that neither will be able to mount enough offense to finish the other. We really need a finish for either side to be optimal.
But both have early finishing equity, and it feels likely that someone will get hurt.
Magomedov at 9k is my preferred option and he’s one of the better pay-downs from the clear top end. He has early finishing ability and Alves is known for wilting. Magomedov is -165 to win ITD which is very strong for this price.
I don’t think you have to overthink this one too much. You should have some exposure to Magomedov at 9k for his finishing equity. I have no problems paying up higher when possible and that will be my preferred method, but Magomedov saves salary and should put up decent scores in wins.
He is relatively boom or bust though, and I could also see him drawing attention at this number with Ducote and Rodriguez surrounding him in price. Getting around the field number or a bit higher makes sense to me in tournaments.
Alves at 7.2k is one of the more realistic upside options below Barboza, and I could see him drawing attention as well.
Magomedov has been dropped in each of his last two fights, and Alves is known for hitting hard early in fights. If he wins at all, I think it comes via an early finish, probably by KO.
Alves is also +355 to win ITD which is okay for this price tag.
Really, once you drop below Alves, you’re betting on floor based WMMA, or total darts/variance. I think Alves is a slight step above those options even though his game is likely to fall apart after the first round.
So with that said, I’m not inclined to be extremely heavy on him, but I think he’s one of the more obvious cheaper fighters who’s worth some exposure, and I wouldn’t mind being near the field percentage on him as well.
It’s probably not a spot I’m aiming to take a major stand on either side, but the fight is -325 to end ITD, so it feels correct to have a fair bit of exposure to the matchup as a whole. I do lean toward Magomedov but I like the finishing upside at Alves’ price tag as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Piera Rodriguez vs. Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -218, Carnelossi +184
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.8k, Carnelossi 7.4k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I actually think this will be a fun matchup in the strawweight division between Piera Rodriguez and Ariane Carnelossi.
Rodriguez is 9-1 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC. I actually think she looked decent in her wins against Kay Hansen and Sam Hughes. She then got outgrappled in her most recent matchup by Gillian Robertson. Robertson is a really good grappler though, so I won’t be too hard on Rodriguez for that loss.
Rodriguez is a decent boxer and she has some decent hands. She lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.98 in return, and defends strikes at 57 percent. I consider her best in close quarters where she can throw her hooks / boxing combinations. She is somewhat skilled in close range, but I don’t consider her all that great either.
However, I do think she does a good job staying composed under pressure and evading / limiting engagements. I thought she handled the pressure of Hughes well and generally stayed safe on the feet.
Rodriguez will also mix in takedowns. She lands 3.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about eight takedowns per fight. I actually consider her a decent grappler with solid takedowns. She has landed 3, 3, and 5 takedowns in her three UFC decisions. I like that consistency. She is also one of the rare women who know how to actually finish a single leg.
I actually consider Roriguez’s defensive wrestling decent. She defends takedowns at 66 percent and can generally scramble up as well.
I don’t mind Rodriguez honestly. She can strike a bit, grapple a bit, seems tough, and her cardio is fine too. She is UFC level.
Rodriguez will be taking on Ariane Carnelossi. Carnelossi generally likes to strike. She is short and built like a rock, and simply comes forward and throws winging hooks at her opponents for the entire fight. On the feet, think of Carnelossi as a much lesser version of Jessica Andrade.
Like Andrade, she pressures, is almost always moving forward, and tries to use her pace, physicality and cardio as a weapon to tire her opponents out. Carnelossi is not very technical or skilled but again, her pace and willingness to throw down help her tremendously.
Carnelossi lands 3.04 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.72 in return and defends strikes at a bad 43 percent. Again, she has some pace and aggression on the feet but I question her actual skills and defensive abilities.
Carnelossi lands 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I don’t consider her an actual strong wrestler. Her takedowns have all come against Istela Nunes who couldn’t grapple out of a cardboard box. She had a grappling affair against Na Liang as well, but it was really Liang who was initiating the grappling, and Carnelossi powered to top position and won the fight via ground-and-pound because Liang is a sloppy mess.
Carnelossi is also poor defensively as a wrestler. She defends takedowns at eight percent! She was badly outwrestled in her last fight against Loopy Godinez. She surrendered eight takedowns to Godinez and was controlled for 13:26. It was a terrible look. Carnelossi tries to power out of positions and sort of knows how to sweep. However, she just isn’t very good on the mat in bottom position and can be taken down easily. Apparently she is a black belt in jiu-jitsu for what it’s worth.
I actually like Rodriguez in this matchup. I think Rodriguez could easily land three or more takedowns here and gather moderate or potentially more top control on the mat. Rodriguez actually has skillful takedowns, and I think she can land takedowns quite easily. The grappling upside alone is enough reason to like Rodriguez here.
Furthermore, on the feet, I even think Rodriguez could win. I do think Carnelossi can give Rodriguez issues with her pace and aggression. Carnelossi has more volume upside. However, Rodriguez isn’t bad on the feet and is better defensively, and can probably neutralize Carnelossi and land takedowns here and there.
So I just like Rodriguez overall and this matchup for her. Rodriguez handled the pressure of Hughes well and I think she can do the same here against Carnelossi.
I do think Carnelossi could win on the feet with volume, tenacity and pace. However, Rodriguez is surely a more skillful fighter, especially as a grappler. So I will pick Rodriguez to get the job done here.
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On DraftKings, Rodriguez is actually priced up to 8.8k which is far more expensive than I’d like to pay for her in a default matchup.
She’s not an extremely high volume striker, nor a dominant grappler, and she hasn’t proven finishing ability yet either. Even her five-takedown performance over Hughes only scored 93 DraftKings points.
Now against Carnelossi, Rodriguez is +285 to win ITD which is mediocre, and I’m not really expecting a finish. I think the most realistic outcome is moderate offensive production, and a score that fails to be optimal at this price tag.
The contrarian argument for Rodriguez will be the wrestling upside. She’s proven she’s willing to wrestle, and Carnelossi brings a ton of pressure, which should mean a higher tempo and more exchanges.
It’s possible this style forces Rodriguez to wrestle, which would give her a decent floor. Even on the feet, a high-pressure style could lead to more strikes landed than normal. I’m semi-interested in the matchup just based on Carnelossi’s style and her lack of defense.
At 8.8k, Rodriguez will be tough to prioritize of course, but I doubt the field will want much action on her either. It’s also tough to fully rely on the wrestling in my opinion.
But as far as a contrarian spot, I think it’s decent. She could realistically land another five takedowns, clear 90 points, and then it just comes down to a few extra moments here and there for her to potentially clear 100 and actually contend for the optimal. I think I’m willing to buy into her to a degree this week, when I want to be somewhat unique in this range.
Carnelossi at 7.4k interests me slightly based on the pace as well, and she has mild wrestling upside.
She’s super physical and powerful and I think in wins, Carnelossi will generally score well. Her two UFC wins have scored 113 and 105. She’s a pretty poor technical fighter so she’ll be difficult to trust, but again, the pacing is key here.
Carnelossi is only +460 to win ITD and the matchup isn’t great for her. I more consider her a floor option, someone who might get taken down but can probably get back up and force exchanges. She can land fair volume and maybe a takedown or two of her own.
She’s cheap enough to warrant lower-end secondary consideration this week as well, on a smaller slate. But she’s likely at technical disadvantages and could be behind Rodriguez for the majority of the fight. I may sprinkle her in but she’s not a real priority for me overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Alatengheili vs. Kleidison Rodrigues
Fight Odds: Rodrigues -152, Alatengheili +132
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Rodrigues 8.6k, Alatengheili 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Alatengheili was slated to fight last month but pulled out due to undisclosed reasons. He’ll now be stepping back in with the current booking being slated a full month out – he’s 4-2-1 in the UFC and 16-9-2 as a pro. Kleidison Rodrigues is a Contender Series alum who’s had a rocky UFC start, not only in performance but with the scales. This will be his 2nd consecutive fight up at 135 – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 8-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Alateng is a wrestler by trade, but the majority of his UFC fight time has been spent at distance (88%). In that, he’s shown some okay things with a snapping right hand, some pop and good hand speed, but one of his biggest issues comes in terms of pacing. He only lands 2.88 sig. strikes per minute at 33%, which is poor.
However, he has taken rounds on the feet in multiple fights – including one against Batgerel, one against Benoit, and two against Lopez. He also KO’d Croom and won all three rounds against Anheliger.
But the margins he’s winning these rounds by usually aren’t overt, outside of Benoit who he was able to hurt. So he does have power and will throw with intent. Defensively, he eats 5.03 sig. strikes per minute with a 58% defensive rate.
The secondary issue I have with him is that he doesn’t really seem to be able to make mid-fight striking adjustments and will play his opponent’s game.
It’s really been the more mobile guys that have given him his biggest issues in Kenney and Gutierrez – Alateng has also been very susceptible to both body and leg kicks throughout his UFC run.
Overall, the best way to describe him is as a serviceable boxer with some pop but I still don’t overtly rate him as a striker.
Rodrigues is a striker by base and fights in a thai/kickboxing type of style. He prefers the mid-range but can and will pressure effectively when he sees fit.
His work rate has been pretty consistent and he will target all three levels on opponents.
I would say his best attribute is probably his kicks, but has some good pull counters and blitzing straights. He only has four official pro wins via KO but has definitely shown some pop in other fights as well – he buckled both Curatolo and Vergara a few fights back.
Rodrigues really operates best when he’s the guy who can lead the dance and dictate exchanges.
Defensively, he’s good at range but we saw him have struggles with the pressure of Vergara where he was primarily put on the back foot and got tired – he only defended strikes at 45% and got significantly hurt to the body.
Outside of that, we’ve seen him face little striking based resistance.
Overall, for a guy with only 11 pro fights, I think he’s a good striker, but our sample is small – despite outlanding Vergara and probably being the rightful winner of that fight, he’s definitely still got some growing to do.
How it plays out: I like Rodriguez on the feet as he’s the more diverse striker in the matchup and throws more volume. He also brings a kicking and semi-lateral component to his game which has given issues to Alateng in the past. But Rodriguez can be susceptible in tight and Alateng does have some power, so that’s where his primary merit can lie. But as long as Rodriguez isn’t getting hurt in rounds or KO’d outright, his style should frustrate Alateng and he’ll outwork him in all likelihood.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Alateng comes from a freestyle wrestling background where he was a part of the Chinese national team.
But as noted, we haven’t seen a ton of offensive wrestling from him in the UFC outside of the 3rd rounds against Batgerel, Benoit, Anheliger and Gutierrez – a big factor in him picking up Ws in the first two referenced in close fights.
Point being though, despite his background, he’s not a guy you can trust to come out and shoot TDs from the jump at all.
He’s got a handful of submission wins as a pro, but you have to go all the way back to 2015 on the Asian regionals – he hasn’t shown any upside in that department so far in the UFC as more of a grinder.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much outside of the Lopez fight.
It was the 3rd round where Lopez was able to threaten Alateng with his wrestling and actually force a point deduction from Alateng for grabbing the fence while trying to stay upright – this is why the fight resulted in a draw.
He has shown good sprawls though, so I do think he’s decent in terms of his defensive wrestling, but his defensive grappling is still questionable as we haven’t seen much of it outside of working out of a guillotine against Lopez.
Overall, the sample for Alateng here is limited so it’s hard to make any definitive claims but he is a capable wrestler, I just wish he’d use it on a more consistent basis as I feel he’s made some of these fights a lot more difficult than they’ve needed to be.
I’m unsure of Rodrigues’ BJJ credentials but he has shown off some wrestling chops on the Brazilian regionals and a bit in the Vergara fight.
He’s got some good trips and has shown some good control components as well – it was the 3rd round against Vergara where he was able to get to his back and maintain position for a few minutes.
Defensively, he can be taken down but has shown a good get up outside of the 2nd round against Vergara where he was controlled extensively after being hurt to the body.
He put up resistance against Basharat as well but ultimately succumbed to an arm-triangle choke – Basharat’s ground game is really good though. However, I’ve seen him mounted in three different fights now which gives some cause for concern going forward when fighting better submission grapplers.
He’s only got a few wins via submission but does appear to be a capable offensive grappler – hard to say though with a smaller sample.
Overall, the ground’s been up and down for Rodrigues.
How it plays out: This is where I see more merit to Alateng. He is the better wrestler in the matchup and should serve as the physically stronger guy as the natural 135er. But once again, he just doesn’t wrestle consistently round to round for whatever reason so it’s hard to anticipate he starts now. Like he shot no TDs against Kenney in a fight he was getting picked apart in, and didn’t shoot anything until the 3rd round against Gutierrez in another fight he was getting picked apart in. Nonetheless, I still think the bulk of the ground upside does go to Alateng because I’d assume Rodrigues would struggle to get him down.
Interesting fight. I’ve never really been an Alateng guy because I think his fight IQ sucks and he doesn’t tend to fight at pace. However, he’s got a style that gives him a good floor with solid durability and cardio. On the flip, Rodrigues is a guy that I’m still not 100% sure what to make of in relation to how good he is or what his ceiling looks like. I also don’t think 135 is his true weight class although he was on the larger end of 125. But matchup wise, I think it’s an okay spot for Rodrigues given the striking reasons mentioned and the lack of consistent wrestling from Alateng. Rodrigues via 29-28 decision is the pick.
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On DraftKings, I’d say this matchup is among the ones that make me the most uncomfortable to analyze.
Luke did a good job at laying out the elements but for me, I’m not sure where Rodrigues stands. He has some good tools on paper but I don’t fully trust him.
Alatengheili strikes at a terribly low volume, and he never wrestles until the third round, so that’s not a style of fighting I can ever get behind. I think I favor the distance elements of Rodrigues but Alateng pressuring and wrestling could potentially force Rodrigues to fall apart.
Rodrigues is priced at 8.6k and I’m not too excited to roster him based on the unknowns.
His pacing is pretty good, but I’m not convinced he has a ton of wrestling equity in this matchup. He’s also only +310 to win ITD and Alateng has not been knocked down inside the UFC. He has been TKOd a few times on the regionals though, which was primarily 8-10 years ago.
I think I feel more confident in the upside of some of the mid-range fights, as well as the fighters priced above Rodrigues, so therefore, I don’t really consider him a priority. My guess is he’ll need an early KO to be optimal and it’s just a hard outcome to project.
I expect he’ll be relatively contrarian though with the poor ITD and somewhat poor box scores. I wouldn’t think it’s wrong to mix him in for contrarian purposes. But it would mostly be a low-end target for me and simply one I don’t feel confident in.
Alatengheili at 7.6k is somewhat in the mix. Again, his style is not trustworthy. But he could theoretically land a few takedowns, even if they come late. He also has some power elements that could hurt Rodrigues or force him to slow down.
I don’t really trust it but at 7.6k, I think he’s a fine secondary option. He too is +310 to win ITD, which isn’t great, but suggests he has similar finishing upside to Rodrigues.
There are a few other fighters below the mid-range who I will prioritize but Alatengheili falls into that next tier of options with realistic win equity, though I would say his ceiling is still questionable.
He probably won’t be super chalky and I won’t aim to be much overweight. Mixing him in as a secondary target feels correct.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodrigues by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Emily Ducote
Fight Odds: Ducote -375, Demopoulos +295
Odds to Finish: +325
DraftKings Salaries: Ducote 9.2k, Demopoulos 7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an alright strawweight matchup here in the curtain jerker between two 50-50 fighters in Emily Ducote and Vanessa Demopolous.
Ducote won her most recent matchup against Ashley Yoder back in October. She has a good chance to make it two in a row against Demopolous as this is a decent stylistic matchup for her.
Ducote is mostly a striker. Standing out of the orthodox stance, I consider her a decent striker with some capable hands. She also showed some awesome leg kicks against Jessica Penne in her debut. She landed 51 leg kicks against Penne and just battered her there.
Ducote isn’t great on the feet though, specifically because she’s absorbing a lot of strikes and is unable to separate herself. She lands 6.93 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.98 in return. Her competition has generally been strong but I still don’t feel entirely comfortable when someone absorbs that many strikes.
Ducote did grapple a bit in Bellator, where she had several fights prior to switching promotions. However, she has only landed one takedown in four UFC fights. I generally think Ducote will have to win fights with her striking moving forward, but I do think she can land takedowns against low-tier fighters.
Ducote’s takedown defense is pretty decent and she is currently defending takedowns at 92 percent. She shut down Godinez’s grappling game which was a good sign for her.
Ducote will be taking on Vanessa Demopolous. I mostly consider Vanessa to be a BJJ player / opportunist. I don’t really think she has the striking or wrestling to win rounds in the UFC. However, she can close distance and hit hard occasionally on the feet.
Vanessa has some solid submissions (and a few submission wins in her career), but I don’t expect them to work as she gets steps up in competition. She armbarred Juarez after being dropped, so a random WMMA guard sub is always a possibility for her against bad fighters.
She did at least land a couple of takedowns in her matchup against Maria Oliveira as well, and got some control time, but it was against a low-level opponent and I am not buying her offensive wrestling against anyone competent.
Vanessa doesn’t really have good defensive wrestling either, so she can be taken down and she is going to struggle getting the fight down to the mat. In her Contender Series fight against Cory McKenna, she was taken down one time and controlled for 11:07 which is awful.
When Vanessa is on her back, she just plays guard, does not try to work up and goes for submissions, so she is a huge liability to lose rounds off her back. She defends takedowns at 30 percent which is awful. She does not have good TDD and she also just lays on her back so she is a recipe for disaster.
On the feet, Demopoulos lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.06 in return. She just does not have much defense and can be tagged cleanly. I do think she has a decent leg kick and some power. She is capable of just going crazy and landing something big, and she will at least be aggressive at times. However, I still don’t think her striking is suited to win rounds.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Ducote’s defensive wrestling is too good for Vanessa to land takedowns consistently. Ducote can honestly probably land takedowns herself here if she chooses. So Ducote should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. My guess is Ducote decides to keep this standing though.
On the feet, Ducote is the better striker on paper. I think she is a little sharper and more technical than Vanessa, and should get ahead on the striking numbers. I also think the low kicks will be there for Ducote. I still worry about Ducote’s striking defense though. She just gets hit a little too much for my liking so I still do think Vanessa can have moments standing.
Still though, Ducote should be at an advantage at range and this is her fight to lose. My guess is Vanessa survives though as she seems extremely tough.
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On DraftKings, Ducote is priced up to 9.2k and I highly doubt many will be excited to roster her at this price tag.
The best part of her game is her volume, and in that, there’s some consistency. She’s landed 117, 116, and 112 significant strikes in UFC fights, so I think that’s a fair representation of her upside. Unfortunately, it’s yielded 82 and 77 point victories on DK, which is far too little for this price.
Now against Demopoulos, I think she can produce a similar result. Demopoulos has absorbed 139 and 93 sig. strikes in fights before, and Ducote may even have some takedown upside as well.
She’ll really need the takedowns to have a shot at the optimal though, and otherwise will be dependent on a random KO. Ducote is +425 to win ITD which is very poor, and she is therefore very hard to trust to finish overall.
Ultimately, she’ll be a clear contrarian play in this range.
The arguments I have for her would be that if she can also land three takedowns, then you turn that 80 point win into a 95 point win, or more, with control. Will Ducote try to wrestle that much? I doubt it. But I suppose it’s possible.
Demopoulos was also dropped by Gomez Juarez, so there’s some KD equity. It still feels like a long shot.
Ducote won’t be a primary target of mine and she feels more like a floor option than anything else. However, there are still a couple of slimmer paths to her reaching a ceiling based on offensive production, and Demopoulos’ lack of defense.
If she’s going to be something like 10 percent owned, you can consider a touch of her in large fields to be unique, if you’re up for it.
Demopoulos at 7k doesn’t particularly interest me. In theory she has grappling equity, but she’s not even averaging 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, so it’s tough to project much success.
She too will rate out as an adequate floor option though, in a fight that’s -400 to go the distance. Ducote has given up 182, 132, and 102 strikes to opponents, so it’s fairly possible that Demopoulos can have some striking success, even if she’s clearly behind.
At the same time, I think 70 strikes landed is much more realistic than 100. That would equate to about 30 points in a loss, which is OK for this price. She will need more than that to beat Ducote so it’s not a straight comparison, but it’s tough to get excited about her ceiling regardless.
Demopoulos is only +725 to win ITD so there’s not much finishing equity on paper there either.
If I need to punt, especially when I am focused on the floor, I think there’s some merit to Demopoulos, but I’m not too high on her skill set or the matchup, and I’ll mostly be passing on her for tournaments, as will the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ducote by Decision (Confidence=Medium)