UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley (12/14/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Fight Odds: Buckley -274, Covington +225
Odds to Finish: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Buckley 9k, Covington 7.2k
Weight Class: 170
Our final UFC event of the year is upon us – thank you all for the support – we look forward to a new season of fights in 2025!
Colby Covington will be making his return to the Octagon on Saturday after coming up short for the title on three separate occasions, and he’ll face off with the dangerous power striker Joaquin Buckley.
I have been a major proponent of Covington over the years and at one point, I think he was clearly one of the best fighters in the division, and honestly among the best in the entire sport as well.
While many hate him for his antics, Covington has been an exceptional pace fighter and round winner, which is one of my favorite styles of fighting and one that is pretty highly predictive.
Covington has a D1 wrestling background which has translated well to MMA. He lands 3.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and has topped out at 12 and 10 takedowns landed in a couple of his matchups.
He is not the best or most physical athlete, and he is not a very dangerous submission grappler, but Covington is pretty relentless in chaining takedowns together against the cage. He will tire out opponents, hanging on them for minutes at a time, and that control ability has led to many clear rounds and dominant victories.
On the feet is always where Covington has had the most issues, primarily because it’s not his main strength. But what I love is that he’s shown a willingness to trade at a high rate, and still lands 3.88 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.98 per minute.
Purely at distance, Covington lands 5.85 sig. strikes per minute with a +1.117 differential, which is very strong. Sure his technique isn’t fantastic, but willingness to throw is more important.
We’ve also seen Covington fight a hellacious five rounds on more than one occasion, giving the former champ Kamaru Usman a run for his money. People will hate on Covington for losing both of those fights, but Covington won 4/10 rounds against Usman despite losing both times. He also landed 250 sig. strikes throughout two championship fights against Usman, while in comparison, Edwards landed 175 (for context).
Overall, Covington is a pretty strong bet to win rounds at the UFC level. He has a solid wrestling pedigree with elite cardio and pacing, and his activity on the feet will keep him alive and competitive with most, despite a lack of real threat there.
With that said, Covington completely dropped the ball in his last championship attempt against Edwards. He was far too passive, like Usman was against Edwards, and he let Edwards completely dictate the pace for five rounds. He didn’t wrestle with nearly enough urgency, and only was able to produce two takedowns and 44 sig. strikes in 25 minutes.
Some will continue to hate on him for that reason. Some said it was because Edwards is too skilled. I knew that a fighter who was willing to go after Edwards with pacing and wrestling would beat him, which Covington and Usman failed to do, but fortunately, Belal Muhammad was able to eventually prove me correct in that assumption.
Regardless, I now have much more mixed opinions of Covington, because I don’t know if I can trust him to fight as aggressively as he did in his prime. Make no mistake, Covington is fully invested in politics at this time, and he’s undoubtedly set up a career for himself after his fighting career ends. I don’t think he cares about fighting as much anymore, and his chances of winning a championship are slim to none.
I think there’s a pretty reasonable chance that Covington just doesn’t fight at the same high level that I once respected. It happens to most fighters. Covington isn’t washed but he certainly isn’t as hungry, and that’s the primary thing that concerns me this week.
Covington will be taking on Joaquin Buckley who has found a career resurgence in the welterweight division, and is coming off another brilliant knockout victory against Stephen Thompson in October.
Buckley has now won five consecutive fights and most view him as a legitimate threat in the division.
I don’t mind Buckley myself, but I’m far from thinking he’s some elite level prospect. I mostly view Buckley as a dangerous power striker, with some offensive wrestling in his game.
Unlike Covington, Buckley doesn’t really have a wrestling pedigree. He wrestled in high school, and he averages 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes.
He’s not a great control wrestler though, and his skills are only good enough to threaten the weaker wrestlers in the division. Taking down Thompson, on paper, is arguably the most wrestling success Buckley has ever had. And that’s against a career kickboxer who has no wrestling skills whatsoever.
Otherwise, Buckley has takedowns over Ruziboev, Morono, Fialho, and Alhassan in recent years.
Speaking of Alhassan, it’s incredibly tough for me to watch that fight and come away positively for Buckley. Alhassan can’t wrestle. He’s landed five career takedowns in 13 UFC fights, and three of them came against Buckley in the third round of their fight. Alhassan actually ended the fight in a mount position, reigning ground-and-pound down on Buckley.
Buckley did much better to fend off the takedowns of Duraev in the fight after, but still gave up two. Then he lost to Imavov by giving up another two takedowns, including giving up his back for several minutes. He gave up a takedown to Alex Morono.
Buckley hasn’t really faced any other wrestlers.
It makes things really difficult to analyze because Covington is far and away the best wrestler Buckley has ever competed against. Could Buckley officially land a takedown on Covington if he dives in on a few? Sure, it’s possible, but it’s extremely unlikely for Buckley to control Covington at all.
Conversely, could Covington take down Buckley? It seems extremely likely to me, at least if we analyze the prime version of Colby. I think the prime version of Colby probably attempts 15-20 takedowns over 25 minutes and lands 8-10 of them, controlling Buckley for 10+ minutes.
Let’s also factor in that this is five rounds. Covington has been through some absolute wars, and we know he can go 25 minutes. Buckley often looks exhausted at the end of three rounds. If we’re guessing as to who is fresher in rounds four and five and who is going to win those wrestling exchanges, to me it’s Colby by a wide margin.
Even at distance, Buckley is very mediocre. He’s explosive and powerful, but he’s averaging 4.13 sig. strikes per minute landed in total, and 3.82 per minute at distance, with a +0.48 differential.
I definitely consider Buckley the more dangerous striker of the two here, but his success primarily comes from knockdowns. He’s won 10 fights in the UFC, and eight of those have come with knockdowns.
His lunging style isn’t particularly good for winning minutes, it’s good for winning moments. It’s allowed him to have some highlight reel performances but it’s also gotten him knocked out in three of his four losses.
To me, if Covington has anything left in the tank, he’ll wrestle aggressively here from start to finish. Buckley may be able to fend him off for a while but Buckley uses so much energy that he will get tired. I think eventually Covington will start to earn control positions and ground-and-pound Buckley to a pretty clear decision.
If the Covington of old is officially long gone, perhaps he’ll just show the same level of passivity as in his last fight. He won’t wrestle with urgency and he’ll get scared off after a couple of failed attempts. He will allow Buckley to come forward, giving Buckley chances to hurt him and giving Buckley the clear optics advantage. I think that’s a pretty reasonable outcome too.
I just don’t see any reason to be confident in that outcome. Even at the end of round five against Edwards, Covington found a way on top and was landing ground-and-pound. This being a five round fight really helps him, and he absolutely has better round winning tools than Buckley overall.
One of Buckley’s biggest aspects to his success has been his takedowns, which he’s landed 12 in his last five fights. That success should be essentially non-existent here, and in fact he could be at a major disadvantage.
I do still think pure power and aggression can carry Buckley to a win, or a TKO win, but on paper I still like Covington’s chances to wear Buckley down and take a decision.
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On DraftKings, the easier play of the two for me is Covington at 7.2k.
I assume he will gain some popularity for his name value, style and price, but I do know the public is down on him at this time and that’s reflected in the betting odds, which will hopefully keep his ownership capped.
This isn’t to say Covington is a lock or anything close to it, but at 7.2k, Covington has a chance to smash in a win.
In his last two five-round wins, Covington has scored 157 and 139. In his last three five-round losses, Covington scored 50, 49 and 57. He wasn’t having as much wrestling success in those fights, which is why those scores aren’t higher.
If he beats Buckley on Saturday, it will surely come with lots of wrestling and lots of control. Over five rounds, he’s shown an elite ceiling and I think he would absolutely contend for the optimal in a win. Despite a poor +600 ITD line, we don’t need or even want a finish for Covington to reach a ceiling, and I consider him very viable as a secondary target.
Due to the inherent risk in where he’s at in this stage of his career, I won’t be as high on Covington as I have in the past (all-in). You don’t need to be extremely above the field.
But I do think he should be included in your portfolio as there’s a pretty reasonable chance the betting odds are undervaluing him. And I also think prioritizing him within this bottom range is reasonable for his floor/ceiling combination and historic fighting style.
Buckley at 9k is still a very good play, but as we just saw with Rakhmonov in this range, main event winners do not always smash.
Especially when they don’t land tons of strikes per minute, and lack elite wrestling equity, which I think fits the bill for Buckley on both sides. Over five rounds, I could see Buckley landing 100 sig. strikes and 0-2 takedowns. He could score between 80-90 in a decision win, which I don’t consider enough at 9k, and I don’t think he has much more offensive upside than that.
We really want a knockout. Buckley has a strong ITD line at +130, but that’s still not elite for a fighter who’s nearly -300 to win. The fight itself is -150 to go Over 4.5 rounds, which is crazy. One of these odds is surely wrong. If this fight hits the scorecards, you do not want to be sitting with -270 Buckley tickets.
So I’m not as excited to play Buckley because I think his real ceiling comes in a quick knockout. He’s done that in the past and put up 114, 101 and 102. He has other big wins like 100 and 115, but those scores came with both a knockdown and four takedowns landed. I just don’t see the wrestling side being very likely.
Ultimately, Buckley is still a very viable target for his five round potential. Especially on a card where there aren’t many stand out options, he still makes sense for the price and he’ll put up a decent score in any kind of win. He can hurt Covington and win by TKO. I am just a bit hesitant on his true win equity and true knockout equity, and I’d prefer to be underweight to the field if Buckley is going to rate out as the chalk, which I expect.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Covington by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo
Fight Odds: Quarantillo -145, Swanson +126
Odds to Finish: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Quarantillo 8.4k, Swanson 7.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Cub Swanson’s rounding out his 13th year on the active roster and recently turned 41 back in November. He’s an OG of the game who’s fought a lot of good guys in his run, resulting in his up and down performances – he’s 14-10 in the UFC and 29-14 as a pro. Billy Quarantillo’s a Contender Series alum and a guy who got to the UFC in his 30s. He had a strong start to his run but has been hit or miss over the last four years when facing a better level of competition – he’s 6-5 in the UFC and 18-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Swanson falls into more of a technical brawling kickboxing-based style that he’s adapted to suit MMA more. He’s shown the ability to fight in all three ranges but excels primarily on the front foot with his boxing. But he’s also got some good slip counters and is a capable kicker.
His finishing ability has been streaky over the years but has put down opponents in two of his last three wins – granted against fellow aging fighters in Pineda and Elkins.
He can be a bit sporadic at times in his style but his work rate has generally been high, landing 5.2 SLpM at 51% and 5.8 DLpM at 48% — both metrics well exceeding the divisional averages.
He’s outpaced his opponents in pretty much all his wins and has really only been extensively outpaced a handful of times in the last 10 years – most notably by Max Holloway (no shame) and Edgar in the first fight back in 2014.
But even in his loss to Ortega, he out landed him 60-24 (won the first round) and went strike for strike with Shane Burgos but was effectively out struck.
It’s been the kicking of opponents that has given him the biggest issue in recent years i.e. 1st round against Pineda, Giga finished him with a body kick, Martinez beat him with kicks and knees and more recently, Dawodu had lots of success to both the legs and body – a fight I thought Dawodu won like many others.
His last scrap with Fili was close but I leaned to Swanson taking that one so I think his last two results should be flipped. But overall, even at 41, Swanson is still a game opponent that’s going to go out there and throw down for better or for worse.
Quarantillo’s an all-action fighter which has been a constant even dating back to his regional days.
He looks to come forward, let his hands fly and either finds attritional KO’s or just outworks his opponents over the course of 15 minutes. He’s largely boxing based but will kick a little bit and had some solid success with the calf kick against Nelson.
In terms of his technical acumen, he can be sharp at times but definitely falls more into the brawler archetype. As a result, his output has been pretty crazy, landing 6.9 SLpM at 54% and 10.1 DLpM at 45% — both of which are just unreal metrics and nearly double the divisional averages.
It does need to be noted that in a couple of his UFC fights (Carlyle & Kilburn), the overwhelming majority of his strikes landed came on the ground but nonetheless, the fewest number of distance strikes he’s landed outside of those two fights or when early finishes have materialized was 55 – still pretty good.
Defensively, the picture isn’t very pretty as he eats 5.6 SApM at 43% and 9.8 DApM at 46%.
His defensive issues haven’t been the biggest deal over the years primarily because he’s always been able to rely on his chin and just zombie his way through exchanges and break guys as a result.
But that style caught up to him against Barboza where he got caught with a flush knee and was put down. Zalal also hurt him with knees and punches in the last outing to boot.
We’ve also seen him effectively out struck by more tactical, higher volume game plans against both Tucker and Burgos in the past. He was hurt in the Burgos fight and also got dropped in the Benitez fight.
Overall, Quarantillo’s a very potent offensive striker that’s going to force high action fights, but father time is starting to catch up to him. You can’t just tank shots for 15 years, not evolve defensively and expect your chin to hold through your whole career – it’s just not how human biology works. Don’t get me wrong though, I’m not saying he’s “fragile” now as he’s still a pretty tough guy but there’s definite durability regression.
How it plays out: This is going to be a war and I don’t think either guy has any real delusion about that. With that being said, it’s a bit difficult to project how it goes considering the potential variance the style dynamic produces. The advantages for Swanson are that he’s better defensively than Quarantillo, is a more effective counter striker and better on the outside. But despite Swanson’s volume being high, Quarantillo’s pace is still insane and we haven’t seen Swanson in a true barnburner for years now. Back in the day, I’d feel a lot more comfortable with Swanson in that type of fight but I’m not sure about that in 2024 at 41 years old. Swanson’s historically been a difficult guy to “break” at least with conventional boxing, but Quarantillo’s shown to be effective in the clinch which could play a large factor in wearing Swanson down – additionally if he’s able to just maintain lip of the pocket exchanges.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Swanson hasn’t proven to be much of an overt wrestling threat over the years, only landing 0.6 TDs per 15 minutes at 47% although he’s not incapable when he actually commits to his TDs.
He’s a BJJ black belt but ironically his defensive grappling has given him some bigger struggles in the past. Submitted by: Edgar, Holloway, Ortega and Moicano – important to note that a couple of them came when he got clipped to set the wheels in motion though.
To his credit, Gracie and Pineda are both dangerous black belts and he was able to largely nullify the grappling against them, and did stuff both of Elkins’ TDs early in their fight as well.
However, Martinez mounted him which wasn’t a great look and he’s had some issues in the clinch in his last couple bouts against Dawodu and Fili.
Overall, Swanson is competent, but I’d still say the ground is more of a weakness than a strength in his game. Despite stuffing at 75%, he’s being out controlled at a 2.5:1 ratio and is 0-5 to the submission in the UFC.
Quarantillo is a BJJ black belt who will look to wrestle in his fights, landing 1.4 TDs per 15 minutes but only at 25%. But he’s looked good from top position in a handful of fights – most notably against Kilburn, Nelson and Benitez as he looked to pass and take backs.
However, he was in a lot of good positions against Carlyle and lost them on multiple occasions as well. He was able to do some good work on top of Hernandez in the 2nd round when Hernandez started to slow.
He’ll be aggressive in attacking submissions, but it hasn’t translated to much UFC success outside of his triangle against Kilburn.
He stuffs TDs at 61% which isn’t great and has had his own bottom struggles.
Carlyle landed three TDs getting nine minutes of control – got taken down seven times by Tucker and controlled for almost six minutes – wrestling against from Hernandez and Jackson lost him those 1st rounds – most recently, he got ran over on the floor by Zalal and was submitted for the first time in his career.
Overall, the floor’s been up and down with Quarantillo.
How it plays out: In theory, I can see both guys landing TDs in this fight, but I’d project Quarantillo to be the more active pursuer of the two should we see that implemented. However, Swanson’s still not the easiest guy to take down and Quarantillo’s offensive grappling has always been rather overrated in my opinion. But as noted, Swanson has had his documented submission struggles and if Quarantillo’s able to slow Swanson down, he may have some opportunities as this fight progresses.
This is a fitting booking for the co-main event as it’s hard to imagine this fight being boring. From a high level, I have real concerns with both guys in terms of where they’re at right now. Swanson probably only has a few more fights left in him but as noted, he’s fought competitively in his last two outings against established fighters in Dawodu and Fili, so I don’t think he’s a complete corpse. On the flip, despite Quarantillo being five years younger, he’s an evidently regressed fighter that I projected quicker than most of the market. I’ve also heard some disconcerting things coming out of the Quarantillo camp. I’m still going to lean his way but it’s a high-variance matchup in many facets where I don’t know how anyone could really be confident.
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On DraftKings, there’s risk to this fight as there’s risk to most fights on this slate, but given the pacing, it’s probably one I’ll be invested in.
Quarantillo is pace god, and he’s been among the more popular fighters on the slate in some of his recent bouts. We’ve seen him produce wins of 131, 109, 141 and 125 which is elite and showcases his upside. He also has a couple of mid 80 point wins in there too.
Recently though, Quarantillo has been getting exposed. He now has two ugly losses in his last three fights and his last big win came in 2022. My guess is the public is starting to get scared off.
But we’re now seeing price drops on him, where he’s only a slight favorite and only 8.4k on DraftKings. Because of that, I am probably willing to buy back in.
I don’t feel exceptionally confident in Quarantillo because he has defensive issues, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him lose. If he wins though, we can count on his pacing, and he has some wrestling and finishing equity as well at +175 ITD. I think there’s a decent chance he could exceed value at 8.4k and he’s a pretty easy place to save salary in that sense.
It would be fine to pivot away to someone in the Grant/Taveras fight, or pay up instead, but I like Quarantillo’s floor/ceiling combination and he’ll likely find his way into a fair amount of my lineups at 8.4k.
Swanson at 7.8k is also very much in play due to the same pacing dynamic.
The thing is, in order to beat Quarantillo, you’re going to have to match him in pace or take advantage of his defensive issues. I don’t think Swanson easily wins this fight or wins at a high rate, but if he wins, I do think there’s plenty of upside.
I also highly doubt the public gets excited by Swanson at his current age. He’s only had one strong fantasy performance since 2020, and he doesn’t wrestle at high rate. He won’t be easy to trust and he’s only +340 to win ITD.
He’s a small underdog though at +126 to win and if he wins, he’s most likely going to need to hurt Quarantillo. I could absolutely see a KD involved, though maybe finishing Quarantillo will prove more difficult.
Idk. I obviously don’t love Swanson and don’t really want to prioritize him outright, but I do think he’ll carry leverage against Quarantillo and has some upside given the pace we’ll see. He’s a fine secondary target for that reason though I won’t be overly invested.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Quarantillo by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva
Fight Odds: Kape -368, Silva +290
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Kape 9.2k, Silva 7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Manel Kape joined the roster back in 2021 where he was really active through that first year but has only fought once a year since. He’ll be looking to rebound from a loss to Muhammad Mokaev back in July – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 19-7 as a pro. Bruno Silva got the call up to the UFC back in 2019 and similar to his matchup counterpart Kape, he’s had periods of inactivity as well. But he’s currently riding a four-fight win streak and looking to break into the top 10 with a win on Saturday – he’s 4-2 in the UFC and 14-5-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Kape fights primarily southpaw but can fight from both stances and is a technically sound striker. He utilizes solid footwork, flowing between both stances and really cuts angles well on his shots.
In that, he doesn’t throw a lot of straight punches but has really solid off line hooks to both the head and the body. One of Kape’s bigger core competencies is his hand speed and he is one of the faster flyweights on the roster.
Kape’s also one of the bigger hitters in the division, finishing seven of his 10 last wins via KO/TKO, coupled with knockdowns in his last four of his last five fights.
One of the critiques with Kape is that he doesn’t always step on the gas and looks to fight a more technical, “pretty” fight or when fighting more aggressive, it comes in bursts.
We saw this against Pantoja in his debut and in other fights as well where he can lose on volume and optics.
Statistically, he lands 4.4 SLpM at 53% and 4.6 DLpM at 52%. Respectable metrics but also skewed up from landing 50 significant strikes on Zhumagulov in the first round of that fight, and 112 more recently against Dos Santos.
Defensively, he’ll fight with his hands down, but largely does a good job of keeping guys on the end of shots or just rolling with them, which also is a testament to the footwork mentioned before and defending at 60% respectably.
Another core competency of Kape is his durability as he’s also never been KO’d in his pro career and has fought some pretty big hitters at 125 lbs. – he’s gotten buckled on a few occasions though.
Overall, Kape’s one of the better strikers in the division between his boxing, hand speed, athleticism, hardware and danger factor. But if the opponent he’s facing isn’t going to really push him, he’s been content to have these low-mid volume affairs which affects his ceiling and ability to overtly separate in certain matchups.
Silva is a grappler by nature, but we have seen a healthy amount of stand up in his UFC fights.
He can be a scrappy dude, but his offensive metrics aren’t great, landing 3.3 SLpM at 48% and 3.9 DLpM at 44%. In return, he eats 3.1 SApM at 58% and 4.1 DApM at 62% which are more respectable.
However, he’s fought some stiff competition in there and pretty big guys.
His most notable standup moments were against Casey Kenney back on the regional scene where he went strike for strike with him (losing a SD, no shame).
Against Ulanbekov, he really chewed up his leg throughout the course of the fight and landed some clean shots of his own. Beat up JP Buys pretty good, outlanding him 37-17 and knocking him down three times while finding a finish. He dusted Rodriguez quickly, who was a can so that was to be expected. He had a competitive striking fight with Nam but was winning the overall exchanges and eventually front kicked him. Most recently, he was losing the exchanges against Durden before finding the uppercut kill shot in the 2nd.
The first two were losing efforts, but he’s held his own in multiple fights with good volume strikers and isn’t getting blown out of the water.
His first UFC loss (technically) came against Taha where he struggled with the forward pressure and power hooks of Taha – he also got dropped in that fight but recovered quickly. In his defense, that was his debut he took on short notice up a weight class – coupled with that Taha missed weight at 135 as well so it was just a poor circumstance overall for him where he still had his moments.
Overall, he’s a decent striker with some aggressive tendencies/power but has his own defensive issues despite his metrics as a smaller flyweight.
How it plays out: I have the same concerns with Kape as I always do in the sense of the fight being a lower volume affair and him not overtly separating, but he will be the biggest pure hitter and best pure striker that Silva has fought to date. I just feel there are levels to a degree in that capacity and I don’t really see Silva being the first guy to put Kape away with strikes. I feel Kape will just be a step ahead of him in the exchanges and has more finish upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
The wrestling has been what Kape has struggled with historically as it was the large reason as to why he lost his fights against Sasaki and Horiguchi back in Japan.
We didn’t see much wrestling from Pantoja in their fight, which was interesting to me but at the end of the day, he was outstriking Kape so he probably didn’t feel he needed to wrestle – Kape did land a few TDs of his own but couldn’t establish control.
Nicolau won the first round via wrestling, but Kape stuffed six straight TDs in the latter rounds of the fight.
Despite me referencing that he has struggled with the wrestling at times, he actually has shown a pretty good sprawl. It’s just that guys have been able to get him down at points.
He’s not a fish out of water on his back by any means, but I do still have concerns with his get up game against a good UFC level wrestler.
Dvorak landed two TDs on him but wasn’t able to do much with them and Kape ended up sweeping him with a deep kimura that he probably would have finished with more time permitting at the end of the 1st round.
More recently, Mokaev took him down three times but on eight attempts and wasn’t able to establish higher amounts of control.
But with Kape’s game being his striking, he’s largely looking to keep fights upright so you’re not going to see a ton of offensive wrestling/grappling upside from him, only landing 0.5 TDs per 15 minutes at 33%.
Overall, I’d say the ground is more of a weakness for Kape based on historics, but he is capable as a wrestler and grappler as well who still stuffs TDs at 73% which is a good mark.
Silva is a BJJ black belt with some wrestling chops.
He also trains out of the Fight Ready camp with Henry Cejudo down in Arizona.
As a result, he’s been getting in work for quite a few years now with one of the better smaller fighters in the world who’s a former Olympian and UFC Champion. He lands 2.3 TDs per 15 minutes but at only 28%.
Silva actually took down Ulanbekov four times in their bout, but it was actually the wrestling and some close striking exchanges that won the fight for Ulanbekov. No shame though really as Silva put up a much better performance than many expected.
He also had some wrestling success against Taha in his debut where he won the 2nd round on the mat, but got submitted in the 3rd round where he kind of gassed and put himself in an arm triangle. Taha also probably had a good 25 lbs on him in the matchup though.
He took Dvorak down three times but really struggled with control and got reversed multiple times.
He had some ground success against Buys as well and was able to snag up a submission after hurting Nam a few fights back.
He stuffs at 60% which is an okay number but was losing the grappling exchanges last time out against Durden.
Overall, I would say the ground is still more of a positive for Silva than a negative with some additional context as he is out controlling his opponents at a near 2:1 ratio.
How it plays out: This is where I’d see the primary Silva upside coming but as noted, he’s only landing his TDs at 28% so it’s also hard to project extensive success for Silva. He can probably land a TD or two against Kape if he’s really pushing but barring Kape just playing guard, I don’t foresee extensive control success and it’s low percentage that he submits Kape.
Interesting booking and not one I thought that we’d see. I think there’s definitely ways for Silva to make this fight interesting, but I also think it’s a quasi-levels fight in the sense that I don’t really think Silva is a top 10 flyweight. I just see Kape being a step ahead of Silva and possessing a lot more finishing upside so he will be my pick to win.
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On DraftKings, I’m not particularly interested in paying up for Kape at 9.2k as I feel he’ll be pretty knockout reliant.
He is a dangerous striker and always does possess some KO upside, but this fight is -160 to go the full distance which isn’t very enticing. Kape himself is +180 to win ITD.
I don’t want to disrespect Kape or overlook him, but there’s clear bust risk at this price tag and in the flyweight division, I usually don’t chase quick knockouts. Silva has been hurt before so the outcome is possible, but I think Kape’s path to a ceiling is pretty risky.
When he does win by early KO, we’ve seen him score 131 and 108. In decisions, Kape has scored 92 and 72. I don’t hate Kape for pure upside but I just can’t imagine prioritizing him at this price knowing he needs a quick finish to contend for the optimal.
Silva at 7k has plenty of upside but it’s a challenging matchup and probably not one I want to make a big investment in.
Silva actually has six KDs in his last four fights, which is super impressive. Sure if he can KD Kape he can win but that outcome is much tougher than it was against his previous opponents. Silva is only +550 to win ITD.
The primary upside to Silva probably comes on the mat, where he can wrestle and is a black belt. He doesn’t land TDs consistently and Kape has been OK to defend at times. It’s definitely a path to victory but not an easy one.
Silva is only 7k so he’s cheap enough that if you want to take a dart, he’s viable for salary relief. I don’t think his floor is exceptional and it feels like a tough path to reach a ceiling. I’d probably rather fade or come in light on Silva, hoping it’s a slower paced fight that Kape is able to control.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kape by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby
Fight Odds: Petrino -338, Jacoby +270
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Petrino 9.1k, Jacoby 7.1k
Weight Class: 205
Rising prospect Vitor Petrino will look to rebound from his first professional defeat by taking on the veteran kickboxer Dustin Jacoby.
Petrino is now 11-1 as a pro after suffering his first loss to Anthony Smith in October. The two traded for a minute before Petrino dove on a takedown, and Smith immediately locked up a guillotine choke.
Petrino was a big favorite heading into that bout and many see him as a future contender of the light heavyweight division. He’s a pretty good athlete with well-rounded skills, and has a couple impressive finishes inside the UFC Octagon.
He also knocked out his opponent on DWCS in 2022 to earn his contract.
I don’t have any extreme issues with Petrino, but I do have some concerns. While I would consider him a dangerous striker with power, his volume has been pretty limited and he only averages 2.82 sig. strikes per minute.
In two fights that have gone the distance, Petrino has landed 39 and 27 significant strikes, and he also landed 44 in a fight that nearly went the full 15 minutes. It’s simply not enough volume to clearly win rounds unless he’s landing clear damage as well.
Petrino’s best asset has arguably been his wrestling. He’s landing 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and has topped out at 7, 4 and 3 landed in a few of his fights. He’s a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and submission capable as well.
I don’t think Petrino is a great technical wrestler but he’s at least capable of shooting takedowns, earning control positions and threatening for a finish. In combination with his power on the feet, Petrino is a dangerous fighter.
His defense also concerns me a bit though. He’s defending strikes at 45 percent and he’s been hurt and dropped before. He was also taken down five times by Anton Turkalj and defends at 71 percent.
This division allows for a lot of weaknesses, as long as you’re a good athlete and decent finisher, which Petrino is. But his lack of volume and overall defensive concerns definitely don’t make me confident he’ll easily win rounds against good competition.
Petrino will be taking on Dustin Jacoby, who has had a really tough run as of late and is coming off another knockout loss.
Jacoby was knocked out by Dominick Reyes in June, and he had previously blown a late lead on Alonzo Menifield by getting knocked down there as well. He was also knocked down by Murzakanov in 2023, though he survived.
Honestly, Jacoby’s durability issues feel overplayed when I look at them in context. He’s only been knocked out one time in 15 UFC fights, and that was his last fight by Reyes who is a quality striker. To be fair though, he’s also been getting hurt more often and at age 36 with his striking experience, it’s very possible this trend will get worse.
Otherwise, Jacoby is just a solid, competitive kickboxer. He has GLORY kickboxing experience and that skill has translated well to the UFC.
Jacoby lands 5.50 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.14 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. He’s topped out at 153, 120, 117 and 93 sig. strikes landed which is pretty strong volume for this division.
I wouldn’t say Jacoby has elite power, but he’s capable and has a recent RD 1 KO win over Kennedy Nzechukwu, who many think is another legit prospect. He also knocked out Da Woon Jung in RD 1 in 2022, who many thought highly of at the time.
Jacoby can keep up with pretty much anyone in the division on the feet. He won’t clearly dominate, but he can keep up a high pace and he has some power. He can also get hurt at times.
Jacoby’s other weakness has been on the ground to a degree, where he’s not a great wrestler. He defends at 60 percent and has given up takedowns to a handful of opponents, including nine to Cutelaba.
But what I’ve always liked about Jacoby is that he will at least try to scramble up to his feet. He can be taken down but he doesn’t just lay on his back and lose rounds. He had to scramble up a bunch of times against Cutelaba, as one example, and ultimately earned a draw.
Still, Jacoby is confined to winning fights on the feet, and that limits him overall.
As far as this matchup, I definitely think Jacoby can compete with Petrino on the feet. It may be true that Jacoby even has a clear advantage standing. I don’t think that’s necessarily how it will play out, but Jacoby is a very technical kickboxer with good volume, and he should definitely be able to compete in and win rounds on the feet.
Petrino likely has more power though, and I’d lean toward him of the two as to who may have the better chance of a knockout. It may be the reality that Jacoby just can’t take punches any more, and Petrino has a strong chance at a KD.
Petrino is also the better wrestler, and this is the part of the fight that I think is most difficult to analyze. Petrino surely has some wrestling equity in this matchup, but how much? We haven’t seen Jacoby really flattened out and beaten on the mat for extended periods, so it’s tough to project Petrino to smash there. I suppose I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s ultimately what happened though.
Overall, I consider Jacoby a pretty live underdog in this fight, though his path to victory may be reliant on winning competitive striking rounds. Petrino is likely going to have the optics and power advantage, and he may also be able to earn enough control on the ground to take over rounds or secure a finish.
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On DraftKings, Petrino is priced up to 9.1k and feels fairly boom or bust.
I don’t always love these spots, but there’s so much variance. Petrino not only has early KO upside due to Jacoby’s durability, but he has wrestling equity as well.
His wins have certainly scored strongly on DK. Petrino has wins of 116, 104 and 94. He also has a 67 point score which was his most recent victory.
In this matchup, Petrino is -145 to win ITD and I think a finish is reasonable. It could come quickly too as Jacoby has been getting hurt early. At 9.1k, I don’t mind Petrino as an upside target and it feels reasonable to mix him into constructions.
Am I going to be very heavy on him though? Probably not, but there are few standouts for me in this range so if he’s your ultimate priority, I can’t blame you.
Jacoby at 7.1k doesn’t interest me a whole lot, despite me thinking he could have a real path to victory.
It’s just that the path to victory is based on striking, and Jacoby has no real wrestling equity. He’s also only +500 to win ITD. A striking based decision where he lands 90 strikes and scores 66 DK points just isn’t exciting enough to chase.
His upside will really come with a knockout, which again, he has been able to achieve a few times against good prospects. If he can KO both Jung and Nzechukwu in round one, I do think it’s possible he could KO Petrino early as well.
Especially if Jacoby actually does have a technical and volume edge, he could land and there’s enough variance in these exchanges where some KD equity is viable. I’m still not going to chase the play, even as a true secondary target. But at 7.1k, Jacoby will be quite low owned and I think he’s fine for a small percentage as salary relief and leverage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrino by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos
Fight Odds: Marcos -211, Yanez +178
Odds to Finish: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Marcos 8.5k, Yanez 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential fight of the night matchup here as two strikers in Daniel Marcos and Adrian Yanez will duke it out.
Marcos is a Peruvian fighter who is 16-0 professionally and 22-0 if you include amateurs. Marcos booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Brandon Lewis on the Contender Series by a dominant striking decision. Marcos then knocked out Saimon Oliveira in round two after dominating him for a round or two. He then won a striking based decision against Davey Grant in a very close fight that could have easily gone to Grant. I do think Marcos underperformed to a degree in that matchup, but Grant is a fine fighter and it showed Marcos is UFC level.
Marcos then had a no contest against Aoriqileng in a fight Marcos was dominating and Aoriqileng pathetically quit to push our bets on Marcos. Most recently, Marcos beat up John Castaneda in a very impressive performance, outlanding Castaneda 98-60 in significant strikes.
Marcos is primarily a striker with eight wins coming by knockout and eight by decision. He has no submission wins in his career.
I actually think Marcos is a legit striker. He lands 5.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.00 in return, defending strikes at a solid 63 percent. He DOMINATES head strike numbers.
Marcos is a well-rounded and aggressive striker who mixes up some NASTY calf kicks and has good punches as well. He also has good kicks. He can mix it up to the body as well with kicks or punches. He also keeps up a decent pace and all of his shots are impactful. He did have a low paced fight vs Grant where he only landed 48 significant strikes, which I didn’t love, but I more so chalk it up to a step up in competition more than anything and Grant being a tough out.
I also think Marcos can strike going forwards or backwards which is rare. He is good at evading and going backwards, and countering if he needs to. I simply think his striking looks good. He got a bit tired in round three of his Contender Series fight but he actually fought through it well and still won round three just fine. That fight was also fought at a hard pace.
I tend to just think this guy is pretty slick on the feet. He has decent volume, he can be aggressive and he can counter. He also has power. Furthermore, he has defended strikes at 63 percent thus far which kind of echoes my opinion that I think he is slick and a good counter striker who is hard to hit.
I think Marcos can continue to win striking fights at this level. Marcos doesn’t look to wrestle much and his tdd seems fine. I do think his tdd is relatively untested though. He has defended takedowns at 87 percent thus far but hasn’t faced any decent grapplers. He did shut down Castaneda’s grappling though which was nice to see.
Marcos will be taking on Adrian Yanez. Yanez is a striker. In fact, he has never even landed a takedown in the UFC, and I don’t expect offensive wrestling to be a path to victory for him. If he wins fights, it will likely be with his striking.
Yanez lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.75 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent which is decent. I like Yanez’s skills on the feet. He is slick and has some great counters. He is dangerous with his hands and his kicks. He lands a lot of strikes which is good.
However, absorbing over 5.0 significant strikes per minute is asking for trouble and I knew Yanez would eventually get knocked out because of it. Yanez isn’t bad defensively. It is just that he involves himself in high paced fights so him and his opponents land a lot. I just think he will continue to be a victim to variance. When you absorb that many strikes, eventually you will pay by either getting dropped and losing a round or by getting knocked out. He was knocked out by Font and Martinez, though the latter was from leg kicks.
Yanez defends takedowns at 100 percent. However, he has only faced six takedown attempts in the UFC. My instincts tell me that his defensive grappling is competent. However, he doesn’t come from a wrestling background so my guess is that good grapplers can probably have success against him.
As far as this matchup goes, I expect a striking fight. A lot of variance is in play here. Both guys are generally in high paced fights and both guys are dangerous. We have seen Yanez knocked out and Marcos rocked badly. So anyone could win by knockout here.
I still lean towards Marcos in this matchup though. I mostly think Marcos is better defensively as a striker. He defends his head a bit better than Yanez and I think Yanez is just a little more hittable which honestly may be the difference in the fight.
Furthermore, I do think Marcos is a bit more diverse offensively as a striker. Marcos can fight going forwards and backwards. He can mix in calf kicks a bit better than Yanez. We saw Martinez devastate Yanez with leg kicks and I could see Marcos having some success there as well. Furthermore, in the clinch, I think Marcos uses all his limbs including elbows better. So I will pick Marcos to win here.
I still think Yanez is good at boxing range though, and he is a heavy hitter. So he could clip Marcos. Furthermore, the Marcos/Grant fight was a bit concerning as Marcos did not show the same level of aggression in that fight as he has in others. So perhaps something like that could happen here for Yanez to be live to win some striking rounds. I still will go with Marcos though as he passes the eye test to me.
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On DraftKings, I just think this has a chance to be a competitive, dangerous striking affair.
Sure I think leaning toward Marcos is fair given what we’ve seen, but I’m not dramatically comfortable in picking him to win when he has a dangerous boxer in front of him who can compete in both volume and power.
Marcos is priced at 8.5k and he’s been bet up a bit, so he’s a slight value now on DK as a -211 favorite. That’s helpful and will probably contribute to Marcos being popular, but he’ll still need a knockout to really reach a ceiling.
In Marcos’ last two decision wins, he’s only scored 82 and 55, and the former came with a knockdown. He just doesn’t have a great path to scoring unless he finds a KO.
Marcos is +180 to win ITD here which is fine, but it’s not an elite number. Also note that Yanez being knocked out by Martinez via leg kicks could be contributing to more confidence in Marcos winning by KO than what’s realistic. Still, I do think Marcos hits hard and will have a chance to win by KO.
Targeting Marcos at 8.5k seems very reasonable for upside, and he doesn’t cost much. He has a clear path to a bust and also may be more popular than I’d like, which are my main concerns, but he’s going to fit nicely into a lot of builds. I hesitate to call him a primary target but he’s certainly among the stronger mid-range options for pure upside.
Yanez at 7.7k is a good leverage target, at least. And I suppose he could even be a popular target outright given his previous KO history and recent 115 point score. Yanez certainly has KO upside baked into his style.
Knocking out Marcos will prove difficult though, and with Yanez’ betting line falling, I’m sure his ownership will be capped.
Yanez is actually +305 to win ITD which is pretty poor for this kind of fight, but I still think he’s fully in play. Even if Marcos gets the fight he wants, these guys are going to bang it out and there’s a lot of variance in those kind of exchanges.
I won’t be heavy on Yanez but I think he can compete both in striking rounds, and he’ll carry some KO upside, as well as leverage against Marcos. A solid secondary/upside/leverage target at 7.7k that I will mix in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Marcos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos
Fight Odds: Stirling -743, Tokkos +510
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Stirling 9.6k, Tokkos 6.6k
Weight Class: 205
The UFC will try their best to boost another Contender Series contract winner in Navajo Stirling, who will take on Tuco Tokkos for his promotional debut this Saturday.
Stirling is 5-0 professionally at age 27, and he trains out of the City Kickboxing camp with Israel Adesanya and company. He’s earned four wins by knockout and one by decision.
I don’t view Stirling as anything special, though he looks like a pretty competent kickboxer and muay-thai practitioner. He doesn’t have some deep kickboxing background though, and instead pursued MMA as a way to get off heavy drinking as a teenager.
Training at the camp he does can surely benefit you, and I have no doubt Stirling has grown into a functional fighter. However, we’ve also seen other fighters come in from this camp like “Blood Diamond” who had a better pedigree and didn’t amount to anything.
With that said, I honestly don’t know what to make of Stirling. There is one real fight of his available to watch, and that’s his Contender Series performance. He looked somewhat sharp on the feet there, and ultimately knocked his opponent out cold in the second round.
I like his distance game and I like the volume he keeps up. He landed 52 significant strikes in 7 minutes which is really strong and definitely gives me hope that he can win rounds standing. I did also think he looked a bit labored as the fight progressed into round two, and I’m not sold he’ll be a huge threat late in fights.
His grappling is also a huge question mark. I read that Stirling was nervous to grapple because he thought he wouldn’t like it, but then realized he loved it. He actually attempted a takedown on DWCS which is a good sign, but it wasn’t a great one and he didn’t land it.
My guess at this moment is that he isn’t good enough to beat decent wrestlers, and he might be a big liability on the mat. Perhaps he’s still developing though and of course I’d love to gather more data there.
Overall, Stirling is a fine prospect. He’s a good athlete and pretty physical, and I think that will translate into power. His striking is functional and his volume looks fine to go three rounds. He seems tough.
I don’t think he’s a real stand out either and without big damage I doubt he wins too many fights cleanly.
He’ll be facing Tuco Tokkos who is 0-1 in the UFC and 0-2 if you also count his KO loss on the Contender Series.
To be very fair to Tokkos, his loss on DWCS came to Zhang Mingyang, who’s been a legit killer, and Tokkos was heavily favored over Zhang at that time. His official UFC debut came against Oumar Sy who is also a strong wrestling prospect, and Sy submitted him quickly.
Those outcomes are pretty poor for Tokkos, but it’s also quite possible both of those opponents would outrank Stirling at this time.
Tokkos is 10-4 professionally now, at age 34, and he’s earned six wins by TKO and two by submission. He trains out of KillCliff MMA and has recent training footage with Brendan Allen, among others.
Tokkos surely isn’t great, but he’s not terrible either. He’s a semi well-rounded fighter. He’s a capable striker, and he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu.
I’ve seen him shoot and land takedowns against the cage a handful of times. I wouldn’t say he’s a great wrestler, but he’s willing, and that’s half the battle. He still landed 22 sig. strikes on Zhang in four minutes before getting knocked out.
Tokkos just isn’t a great athlete, so he’s rarely going to be able to force his game on people. He doesn’t have A+ power, and his durability is pretty questionable. Based on his last fight, his defensive grappling is probably sub par as well.
Tokkos is very likely going to lose this fight, and be cut from the promotion. In that sense, it’s a good matchup for Stirling.
In another sense, Tokkos is more experienced than Stirling and he’s faced better competition. He’s probably the better wrestler and better submission grappler. He can strike too and he’s won decisions before.
I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Tokkos was competitive with Stirling. Most likely, that would come in the form of an extended fight where Stirling uses energy and gets a bit tired, and Tokkos can have wrestling success.
That does feel like a tough outcome to predict and one I won’t predict. Most likely, I actually think Stirling is able to get striking exchanges early, outpace Tokkos and knock him out.
I’m just not super confident in it. We consistently see DWCS winners overvalued in the UFC and there’s probably some recency bias against Tokkos due to his recent losses.
Stirling is the better prospect but at 5-0 off the Australian regional scene, I am definitely skeptical that his skills are fully well-rounded, and we may see him exposed sooner or later.
I’ll take Stirling to get the job done here. I like his athleticism and pace. Tokkos is live as a LHW fighter who will exchange, by default, and his potential wrestling advantage gives him another sneaky path to surprise the public.
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On DraftKings, Stirling is actually the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k, and is a massive favorite lined north of -700 to win.
I get it, but I also shared my skepticism that he’s some real prospect as we’ve seen many fighters be overvalued in this situation before.
I also think Stirling is largely boom or bust in his fighting style. He’ll fight at a moderate pace but his success will come with strikes and damage. He probably needs an early KO to contend for the optimal.
In that 2nd round win on DWCS, Stirling landed 52 strikes and would have scored approximately 102 DK points in the knockout. That’s a good example that despite a strong pacing, strikers just don’t reach top-end ceilings without a RD 1 win or some extenuating circumstances.
Scoring 102 at 9.6k feels too low, though this isn’t an elite card for ceiling scores. You could still choose to prioritize others for cheaper.
I do think he has first round KO equity though. That will be what he tries for, and Tokkos will probably be forced to exchange. Stirling is -210 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate.
If you can afford to pay up this far, I don’t hate the play. He at least has a clear path to the type of outcome we need, though I still have some concerns that his top-end ceiling won’t be elite. This top range isn’t phenomenal this week though, so I’d be slightly more willing than usual to plug in this type of play.
Ultimately if you can’t afford him, it’s not a big deal. I will never force guys in at this price tag. However, Stirling is a big favorite with strong ITD metrics, so he’ll rate out well for upside and moderate exposure if you can afford it is reasonable.
Tokkos at 6.6k is viable but probably not someone I’ll end up with a lot of exposure to.
Clearly he’s a big dog and the lack of win equity is a concern. I would expect him to win by TKO or via wrestling if he wins at all though, which gives him a path for upside and he should also carry heavy leverage against Stirling.
It’s really not a terrible spot considering the consistently overpriced DWCS contract winners, Stirling is likely being overvalued. I still don’t feel great about Tokkos enough to consider him anything more than a dart throw for large-field tournaments.
If you have a large portfolio, it’s probably worth a small sprinkle. With a small portfolio, I’d likely just lean toward the fade and hope the big favorite comes through.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Stirling by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar
Fight Odds: Johnson -218, Azaitar +184
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson 8.7k, Azaitar 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun action fight here in the lightweight division between longtime UFC veteran Michael Johnson and Ottman Azaitar.
I felt bad for Michael Johnson in his last loss. He was actually performing well and outstriking Carlos Diego Ferreira. He then got knocked into the outer realms of the solar system. It was tough to watch. However, Johnson followed up that loss with a nice decision win against Darrius Flowers. He outstruck Flowers throughout, and also landed four takedowns and obtained a bit of top position. It was a good, measured performance by Johnson.
Michael Johnson is a sprawl and brawler. We know what he is going to do. He is generally going to try to keep the fight on the feet and look to outbox his opponents.
I consider Johnson a competent striker. He lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.83 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. His numbers are also skewed because Khabib dominated him in significant strikes on the ground. So his metrics check out more once you adjust them a bit.
Johnson is mostly a boxer and uses his hands. He has a good jab and 1-2 straight punch combination. He will also throw some good hooks in the pocket as well. He has fast hands and has some power as well. He is also a southpaw and will land a nice inside low kick vs orthodox fighters. Johnson still looks fast even though he is 38 years old and generally carries a speed advantage over his opponents.
Johnson doesn’t look to wrestle much and only attempts about a takedown per fight. Coming from a wrestling background, he actually has a good double leg but we rarely see it as he is more interested in striking. We saw him land some takedowns against Flowers as mentioned above, but I really only think he will look to outwrestle very weak grapplers.
Johnson defends takedowns at 81 percent. I actually think he has very good first layer takedown defense, especially in open space. His problem is when people get him vs the cage or when people chain various takedown attempts together.
We have seen Johnson defend takedowns quite well in some fights and not so well in others because of this. I also just don’t like him once he is actually grounded. He is good at staying upright because he has good TDD, so we don’t see him grounded much. However, he is a bit clueless as a submission grappler and not skilled on the mat.
I generally consider MJ durable, but he is older now and suffering a devastating KO like he did against CDF makes me a bit nervous for him going forward. Still though, he has only been knocked out three times in 29 UFC fights and they came against MASSIVE hitters and good fighters in Justin Gaethje, Josh Emmett, and CDF.
MJ will be taking on Ottman Azaitar. Azaitar is 34 years old and 13-2 professionally. He was undefeated on the regionals at 11-0 (mostly against bad competition) when he made his UFC debut in 2019. He is now 2-2 in the UFC, trading first round knockout wins and losses with his competition. He knocked out Teemu Packalen and Khama Worthy in round one in his first two UFC fights. He was then knocked out in round one by Matt Frevola and Francisco Prado in his last two UFC fights.
Azaitar is a fairly dangerous striker. He is competent on the feet and he has some good power hooks in the pocket. He can also use his hooks to counter, as well as spring in and land them as well. His hooks are very much his bread and butter. He can also mix in some occasional leg kicks.
I do think Azaitar is dangerous and he generally knocked out his regional competition, and we have seen him knock out some low tier UFC competition too. I generally think winning by knockout is his path to victory at this level and I do think it is a reasonable one that could get him some occasional UFC wins.
However, Azaitar just has some issues. He has been knocked out twice now against the only two decent guys that he has fought. So his durability is an issue. He also just keeps his head straight in the air when crashing the pocket. Furthermore, wrestling doesn’t look like a path to victory for him at this level. I do think his TDD is decent but I think a good grappler could have their way with him too.
I will defend Azaitar in the sense that I don’t think he is completely early KO or bust. I have seen him fight three rounds and although he slowed down to a degree, he did still maintain his danger so I do think he can win by knockout in an extended fight as well. He also has a little volume to his game so he won’t concede rounds super easily on the feet.
Still though, Azaitar has never really beaten a good fighter and Michael Johnson is arguably the best guy he has fought.
I do think Azaitar could clip Johnson and knock him out. We have seen Johnson lose by knockout before although it has come vs great competition. I also just don’t trust Johnson in general as he is a bit of a stunt puller and has lost so many fights that he should have won. So I wouldn’t be shocked if Azaitar found a way to pull this off.
However, Johnson is the superior fighter here with WAY more high level experience. Johnson has beaten much better fighters than Azaitar. Johnson should carry a speed advantage against Azaitar and is just a more skilled and faster striker. I think Johnson will land pretty easily and there is a good chance that results in a knockout for Johnson. Johnson is probably a better takedown artist as well.
So I am going to pick Johnson here. If he doesn’t get knocked out, he should win and I will pick him to survive as Johnson is a bit more durable than people realize. Johnson is untrustworthy though so just approach with caution.
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On DraftKings, this is probably one of my favorite fights and I think there’s a pretty decent chance it ends early.
Johnson isn’t very trustworthy, and it will be difficult to really make an investment in him here, but I am hoping the public will feel similarly. It just really seems to me like Azaitar primarily will win via early KO, and lose via KO as well.
Granted, he’s gone to round three and to decision before (as opposed to never), but he hasn’t been outside of round one since 2017. His striking defense is very questionable, and his durability is very questionable. I do respect his power and do think he can continue to win via KO though.
Johnson is priced at 8.7k and probably still carries a boom or bust profile. He won’t land tremendous volume and he’s a very inconsistent wrestler.
Even with four takedowns landed in his last fight, Johnson only scored 89 points in a decision. It’s not terrible but not amazing either.
He’s +125 to win ITD here which is pretty strong. He’s only won by KO once since 2016, which is the scary part. It honestly would be OK if you were scared off of using him as a primary play, and there’s still a real chance this fight extends and busts.
I just do think Azaitar will want to exchange, and someone will get hurt. More often than not, I think Johnson wins, and I think he’s the far superior fighter in an extended fight as well.
Johnson carries risk at 8.7k but I like the upside for this matchup specifically, and on a weak card in general, I don’t mind being over the field on Johnson this week.
Azatiar feels like a somewhat strong target at 7.5k though I only like him for upside purposes.
More than likely, I think Johnson wins this fight at a high percent and that will probably limit my overall exposure to Azaitar. But Johnson has been knocked out cold multiple times and Azaitar will at least throw down. Johnson also loves finding ways to lose.
So I could very much foresee a quick KO win from Azaitar and an optimal score. He’s +235 to win ITD which is fine at this price. He’ll get some love but probably won’t be chalk.
I won’t go too crazy on exposure for Azaitar but he has obvious upside in his profile and his price is nice. Clear secondary target for me all things considered.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Joel Alvarez vs. Drakkar Klose
Fight Odds: Alvarez -469, Klose +354
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Alvarez 9.3k, Klose 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Drakkar Klose came into the UFC back in 2017 and is a guy who’s always floated under the radar a bit, but has had a really solid run over the last 7-8 years – he’s 9-2 in the UFC and 15-2-1 as a pro. Joel Alvarez is rounding out his 5th year on the active roster and despite a few setbacks, he’s a guy who’s flirting right around the top 15 and is coming off back to back wins – he’s 6-2 in the UFC and 21-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Klose is traditionally an aggressive striker but not the most technical guy in the world per say. He’ll largely just bull rush in but ironically, it’s worked really well for him throughout his career.
He lands at a decent clip of 4.4 SLpM at 52% – 5 DLpM at 48%, kicks legs well, has some pop and good clinch work between knees and dirty boxing.
However, he’s gotten into some wars with his striking defense not being a great attribute of his where he utilizes little head movement or feints, he’s specifically susceptible when entering the pocket. His defensive metrics are slightly better than the divisional average though, eating 3.5 SApM at 51% and 4.3 DApM at 56%.
Klose has also proven to be generally durable (outside of Dariush) although he’s gotten hurt in some fights and proven over the course of his career that he’s a great optics winner.
For example, in three of his fights, he’s only edged his opponents by five SS but has won decisions in all three. Against Green, he had a very negative strike ratio (getting almost 2x’d on strikes) and still won the fight on the cards.
Overall, unless opponents can KO Klose or just be non-committal with him, he’s going to be difficult to deal with on the feet because he has decent cardio, good forward optics and can push for a full 15 minutes.
Alvarez is a massive guy at 155 standing 6’3” with a 77” reach.
Given how potent of a grappler he’s been, there wasn’t a ton of striking footage on him in the past although we’ve gotten some more now in the UFC.
He got pieced by Ismagulov in his debut at space but not much of a knock as that was a super tough debut and Ismagulov is a high-level striker.
But he looked better than he ever had in his outing against Moises and beat the guy to an absolute pulp, finishing him in the first round – pretty impressive as I didn’t see that coming at the time.
He most recently put together solid back-to-back striking performances against Diakiese and Brener, outlanding them combined 108 to 65 – he specifically beat Brener up good and handed him his first finish loss as a pro.
Brener isn’t a world beater but a guy that’s known to build into fights and have solid 3rd rounds, so for Alvarez to not only finish Brener but in round three was pretty impressive Coupled with that being only the 3rd time that Alvarez had seen a 3rd round, so there’s been some cardio questions on him over the years – it’s nice to have that fight as a sample now.
In totality, I would still like a bigger sample of Alvarez standing but he’s clearly a far more capable striker than what his original profile may have led him to be.
How it plays out: Off the top, Alvarez is going to realize a massive size advantage of 6” in height and 7” in reach. Klose is the more established striker but outside of leg kicks, I don’t see him realizing much success on Alvarez when his fight is at range. Klose is going to have to force pocket/clinch exchanges but as noted, he’s very available when closing distance so it’s in those in-between periods where I feel Klose is very live to get hurt badly, despite his historic durability. His best path standing is on the fence in my opinion where he’s historically been effective but even there, I think he’s also playing with some fire with the clinch and knees of Alvarez. Nonetheless, that’s how I’d see him winning minutes and potentially wearing Alvarez down.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Wrestling has been a bit up and down for Klose, but he will mix in the TD, landing 1.6 per 15 minutes at 26%.
Historically, he hasn’t been a super strong force on top outside of the Diakiese fight but his primary work comes in the clinch. It’s just important to note that he will mix it up and he has won rounds with his wrestling in the past.
Klose defends TDs statistically well at 69% but he’s been put in some precarious grappling positions in multiple fights – to his credit, he’s gotten out of them, but they still need to be noted.
Bobby Green mounted him twice, Giagos mounted him, took his back and threatened chokes, Dariush had his back for nearly the entire first round of their fight and he most recently got stuck in a tight guillotine by Silva.
So, there are really a few ways to look at it: 1) He’s been put in compromising positions a healthy amount or 2) He’s got out of all of those positions capable grapplers and went on to win three of those fights.
It’s a combination of both for me because if you’re a fighter with those consistent mistakes, they will always catch up to you at some point. However, if Klose can last 4+ minutes with a guy like Dariush (elite black belt) on his back, he’s got my respect in terms of submission defense.
He also reversed position against Solecki early in their fight and ended up slamming him on his head to win – the general consensus was that Klose was in bigger trouble if he was grounded and he did fine in the positions.
Overall, the ground’s been up and down with Klose.
Alvarez reps a BJJ brown belt and has shown to be a potent submission grappler, finishing 17 of his 21 pro wins via the method. In that, he’s very aggressive in attacking – primarily front chokes, triangles and arm bars.
Despite his potent nature, he’s definitely more of a bottom player/reactionary/opportunistic grappler.
His offensive wrestling has really been non-existent having never secured an official TD in the UFC, and he has only attempted two through an hour of cage time.
The best guy he’s submitted was probably Yakovlev who is black belt but a guy who had also been submitted four times prior.
An interesting fight for me was the Belluardo fight where Belluardo landed an earlier TD and rode out the first round on top (winning the round) — it was more of the same in the 2nd but Belluardo ended up getting swept and pounded out – Alvarez was losing virtually every minute of that fight prior though.
I’m still not sure why Moises didn’t shoot one TD on Alvarez when he was getting pieced up on the feet because I feel Moises could have easily gotten top time. Diakiese was also able to remain safe for some periods of their fight on top but ultimately succumbed to a d’arce choke.
Tsarukyan obviously brutalized Alvarez from position and racked up a lot of minutes.
In totality, he’s definitely a guy that needs to be given respect on the ground because he can catch things from anywhere really, but he can be outwrestled, only stuffing TDs at 42%.
How it plays out: Given size parity in the matchup, I think Klose will probably look to wrestle here. Alvarez hasn’t been a particularly difficult guy to take down so if Klose is really committing, he should get Alvarez down. So now, it’s more about assessing whether Klose can be safe on top of Alvarez. I think for periods he could be, but it really only takes small mistakes against a guy like Alvarez where you’re now caught in something. Despite Klose never being submitted before, I think he’s pretty live to either get guard subbed or swept to where he’s now in another poor position.
I’ve been a Klose “truther” over the years as I’ve made a bunch of money betting on him and he’s a guy I don’t think has gotten enough respect for what he’s done in the UFC. However, this is where I jump off the train. There are ways Klose can win this fight, so I don’t think he’s drawing dead, but I feel somewhat confident Alvarez is going to put him away here. Additionally, from a side narrative perspective, he doesn’t seem to be in a great head space right now – his brother got killed a few months ago and he said he’s got one or two more fights left in him then plans to retire. Alvarez via club and sub is the pick.
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On DraftKings, I expect Alvarez is one of a couple fighters who will be a lightning rod for ownership in the top end.
Alvarez is a finisher, and in his wins in the UFC, he’s scored 98, 94, 108, 93, 97 and 97. I think that will continue to be the trend.
I’ve also been very low on Alvarez compared to the public and I’ve been burned by him a handful of times. It’s just a situation where Alvarez has a style that’s destined to fail at the highest level. He has won 17 of 21 pro fights via submission but he cannot wrestle offensively or defensively. That just doesn’t work at the top level.
However, I clearly undervalued where that line is drawn, and Alvarez’ finishing instincts have been more than good enough to get by the lower and mid levels of competition. His lone step up against Tsarukyan got him destroyed, but Tsark is fighting for a title.
Also, Alvarez is massive for the weight class and is improving as a striker. I now consider him a threat on the feet and so it’s an additional path to win outside of this pure submission game.
I don’t have a ton of confidence in Alvarez because of his style, and Klose isn’t an easy matchup, but I do think Alvarez will likely have success. He can hurt Klose at distance and threaten with a sub. I’m not sure he’s scoring many points per minute bu a finish feels pretty viable.
Alvarez is -160 to win ITD which is one of the best lines on this slate. I worry about his top end ceiling as he doesn’t land takedowns, and that’s partially why he fails to reach 100 points. But still, with a strong finishing metric like that, which could come to fruition early in the fight, Alvarez is a strong upside target.
I would expect him to be pretty popular this week, but I can’t fault you for targeting Alvarez. I’ll mix up my exposure in this range but ending up with moderate exposure to him at 9.3k for the finishing upside is reasonable.
Klose is one of many live dogs and at 6.9k, I do have some interest.
Largely, I have interest in the sense that I always target fighters against Alvarez. Klose is a better wrestler and better round winner, so he could simply land takedowns and control Alvarez to a victory.
Klose isn’t someone I necessarily trust to wrestle though, and I am very worried about the size discrepancy, the distance striking, and Alvarez threatening with chokes. I’m ultimately picking Alvarez to win.
Klose is +700 to win ITD too which is very poor. I don’t mind him as a pure punt and leverage target against Alvarez, as his ceiling seems reasonable given the matchup. I don’t fully trust that he’ll actually get the job done, so I just consider Klose a low-end target who I will mix in some for salary relief.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alvarez by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla
Fight Odds: Woodson -149, Padilla +129
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Woodson 8.6k, Padilla 7.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what should be a fun fight here in the featherweight division between UFC veteran Sean Woodson and exciting striker Fernando Padilla.
Woodson is putting together a nice career in the UFC. He is 7-1-1 in the UFC and is a pretty consistent fighter.
Woodson is a striker and more specifically a boxer. He is also huge at 6’2″ with a 78 inch reach. That just baffles me. This guy is my height and I would literally have to cut off a leg to make 145 pounds. His size is surely an advantage and opponents struggle dealing with it.
Woodson lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.19 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent. I quite like the boxing of Woodson and always have. He is quite good defensively and is good with his shoulder rolls and trunk movement to avoid the strikes of his opponents. He also has good offense and has solid straight punches, and a very nice jab. He will mix his punches in to all levels and he likes to target the body. He can also mix in some kicks and I overall just respect Woodson as a striker.
Woodson has also never been outlanded in head strikes in his UFC career and sneakily has some good wins including against Youssef Zalal, Charles Jourdain, and Alex Cacares.
Woodson is also a solid defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 84 percent. He does a really good job of getting wrist control in defensive wrestling positions. I also sneakily think Woodson can offensively wrestle a bit. He has landed five takedowns in his last three fights which was never a part of his game before. He showed me some decent takedowns and an understanding of how to float in top position. I do think he can land takedowns against weaker grapplers.
Woodson does have some weaknesses though. First, he doesn’t have a ton of power. He has won by knockout a couple of times in the UFC and is by no means a weak hitter. However, I do wish he hit a bit harder.
Furthermore, Woodson had one bad performance against Luis Saldana. Woodson was knocked down twice in the first round and just didn’t look himself. He did at least compete after the knockdowns to rally to score a draw, but it was a little concerning as I think he is better than Saldana. I will chalk that fight up to an outlier though as Woodson has consistently shown good round winning ability on the feet. Woodson has never been finished in his career and at least he showed against Saldana he won’t quit and can fight through adversity.
Overall, I just think Woodson is a solid striker at this level who will continue to beat many guys in striking fights in the UFC.
Woodson will be taking on Fernando Padilla. Padilla is from Mexico and is 16-5 professionally, fighting in a bunch of random decent regional promotions. The only two guys that he had fought on the regionals that I knew were Dan Ige and Spike Carlyle. He lost both fights by getting outwrestled.
Padilla is 2-1 in the UFC now though. He knocked out Julian Erosa in his UFC debut and submitted Luis Pajuelo in his most recent fight. He lost a striking based decision in between those fights to Kyle Nelson, and was outlanded in significant strikes 82-72. It was honestly a concerning performance by Padilla.
Padilla is 6’1” and is long and lanky. He kind of strikes like Julian Erosa who he fought in his UFC debut. He will come in and throw a lot of hands and is pretty aggressive. He likes to come forward. He also likes to land inside strikes in the clinch either with elbows or with knees. He doesn’t kick all that much but will mix in some leg kicks. He has moderate power. He does seem to kind of get worse in the striking rounds as the fight extends though. His cardio isn’t awful or anything, but it doesn’t look great either.
Padilla’s striking defense doesn’t look great. He kind of just gets hit a lot and I imagine he will get hit a lot more in the UFC with a step up in competition. This guy does seem ultra tough though and has never been finished in his career. He just seems very durable. I have seen him wobbled a few times though.
Padilla comes from a 10th planet BJJ background. He doesn’t look like a strong offensive wrestler at all, but he does have a decent guard and has won by submission several times. I don’t trust submissions for him at the UFC level though as guard submissions just become less likely against decent competition.
Padilla looks like a defensive wrestling liability. He lost to Ige easily and his TDD was non-existent in that fight. He almost accepted the takedowns and just played 10th Planet mission control on his back for most of the fight. He also got outwrestled by Spike Carlyle. He will surely get taken down and controlled at this level.
I think Padilla is alright and a fun action fighter in this weight class. I do think he can get some random finishes and compete in the striking rounds against some UFC level competition.
Still though, I bet Padilla in his last fight against Luis Pajuelo because Pajuelo is awful. Padilla also knocked out Erosa because Erosa has no durability. In extended fights, Padilla hasn’t shown to be great. He is 2-5 in decisions and lost a striking decision to fucking Kyle Nelson. He has never won on the scorecards against anyone near Woodson’s level.
I just can’t pick a guy in Padilla who is 2-5 in decisions to beat a guy like Sean Woodson who is 8-0 in decisions. I think these guys will strike and although I do think Padilla could potentially hurt Woodson, I think Woodson will get ahead on the exchanges. I just trust Woodson’s metrics in the UFC. I think Woodson is superior defensively to Padilla and will get up on the rounds as the fight goes on. Padilla is also seriously hittable and Woodson may just jab his face off.
I also sneakily think Woodson has some grappling upside. Padilla is a seriously poor defensive wrestler and I could see Woodson landing takedowns and obtaining top position here. So the pick is Woodson here as I believe he is the superior striker from a round winning perspective.
I still think Padilla is dangerous though and I do respect his game. He could maybe hurt Woodson or lock up a submission. Padilla could maybe compete in rounds to a degree as well. So I am not completely writing Padilla off.
Still though, Woodson is pretty tough and experienced and is honestly the best striker Padilla has fought and I think this is a bit too much of a step up in competition for Padilla.
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On DraftKings, I don’t have overwhelming interest in this fight.
The fight itself is -210 to go the distance, which is one of my primary concerns. Neither fight has much wrestling equity, so there’s a very real possibility that this is just an extended kickboxing affair.
If Woodson were to win and land 120 significant strikes, which is a super high rate, he’d score 78 DK points. And considering his last two wins scored 70 and 73, I just worry about the ceiling.
Tim thinks Woodson has sneaky wrestling equity here but 1-2 takedowns probably still won’t be enough. We need some absurd pacing, lots of grappling and/or a finish. Woodson is only +440 to win ITD so that’s not very enticing either.
It’s just hard to prioritize Woodson at 8.6k. I consider him somewhat likely to win, and he may look fine. He just isn’t a special fantasy scorer and his chances of clearly exceeding value are limited. I doubt he’ll be highly owned though so perhaps he’s of mild interest as a contrarian target.
Padilla at 7.6k could possibly get more attention than Woodson because he’s coming off a quick finish that scored 115, and his UFC debut scored 108. However, context is definitely needed as both opponents are very flawed defensively.
Padilla’s chances of knocking Woodson out just are not as high as they were in Padilla’s past fights. His wrestling equity is very small as well. An extended decision may not even score too well as he would have only put up 59 in a win against Nelson.
The only saving grace here is that Padilla is +275 to win ITD which is better than Woodson’s number. His finishing chances are being respected, and Woodson has been hurt before, and subbed. I do think Padilla has some finishing equity.
It’s still not a great matchup, but Padilla is OK at 7.6k for the finishing equity alone. I doubt it comes to fruition and I’m not really going to attack him much on this slate, but I’d understand if you wanted to mix him in as he’ll have opportunities to throw and land.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Woodson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Miles Johns vs. Felipe Lima
Fight Odds: Lima -233, Johns +195
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Lima 8.9k, Johns 7.3k
Weight Class: 145
Felipe Lima had one hell of a debut in June, upsetting the previously impressive Muhammad Naimov with a third round submission, but I’ll be interested to see how he fares against a veteran test on Saturday against Miles Johns.
Lima is 13-1 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned four wins by knockout and three by submission.
He’s a pretty aggressive kickboxer, and I think that pacing will be his primary weapon moving forward. The numbers don’t exactly reflect it, as Lima only landed 37 sig. strikes in 11 minutes against Naimov, but he was often moving forward and seemed willing to exchange.
The commentators noted it but another thing I like in relation to his pace, is that he will fire back when fired upon. He’s not just going to sit at range taking shots without returning, and that’s one very small attribute that I think will help keep him competitive in striking rounds.
Lima doesn’t seem like a huge hitter on the feet otherwise, and I don’t think he’s some massive knockout threat. But he was attacking all levels, which is yet another attribute I really like. Of those 37 sig. strikes landed, 10 came to the head, 14 to the body and 13 to the legs.
I could see Lima being on the wrong end of power optics, but he’s never been knocked out so it’s not like he’s a real liability there on paper. His only pro loss actually came by submission in 2015, which was his debut.
Despite that, I actually like what I’ve seen from Lima on the ground. He isn’t an elite athlete and can be taken down and held down at times, but he has an active guard and will generally try to scramble up. He also can wrestle offensively a bit and that’s a mild weapon for him as well.
Lima is just an interesting prospect. Maybe not an elite one but one I enjoy watching. He comes from the AllStars camp with Chimaev which is possibly helpful. We saw him in a five-round fight prior to debuting in the UFC, and he looked good there.
There are a lot of positive aspects about Lima and although he may eventually move back down to 135 pounds, I think he can be a respectable round winner for the time being, though one with a limited ceiling.
Miles Johns is an interesting test and while I’ve never loved Johns, you cannot deny he’s been a successful round winner at the UFC level.
Johns lands 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of mixing it up on the mat, which he has done with some success, albeit limited success. He also defends takedowns at 85 percent so he’s been tough to control.
On the feet, Johns is a low-volume boxer but his metrics are fine. He lands 3.28 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.54 per minute with a 69 percent defensive rate. His ceiling is grossly low, and he’s only topped out at 80 sig. strikes, but he usually absorbs less than he lands, and his defense has been good.
Johns has only lost twice, and both came ITD. Mario Bautista knocked him out in the second round with a flying knee in 2020, but that loss hasn’t aged poorly. John Castaneda also finished him in round three by submission after Johns couldn’t keep up with his pace.
I have some mixed feelings as far as this matchup because on paper, Johns is better defensively. He’s probably the better pure wrestler, and he’s probably better defensively on the feet.
However, Johns’ offensive skills can only get him so far. He’s unlikely to even land three takedowns across 15 minutes, and with his takedowns, he’s not always the best control fighter. He isn’t a major submission or ground-and-pound threat, so his finishing equity is limited.
And the volume is a major concern of mine too. He enjoys a slow paced fight where he can dictate the exchanges, but when opponents have come after him, it hasn’t always worked out. Lima is the type to push a pace, and throw back, and I do think it’s a recipe to succeed against Johns.
It’s just that Johns is way more experienced against good competition. He’s a fine boxer who can land in the pocket. He’s landing to the head while Lima is landing to the body and legs, it still might not look good.
I think Lima has a higher volume ceiling though, and he’s just a scrappier fighter overall. Pacing really hurt Johns in that Castaneda fight and I could see Lima sharing similar success where he builds over the fight and starts to break Johns down.
I also think Lima is likely to be the more dangerous submission grappler. If Johns gets him down, Johns could hold him down for a couple of minutes but I wouldn’t expect a finish threat. If Lima gets on top, he could easily scramble for the back and start to threaten for a choke.
I don’t think it’s likely that Lima easily knocks out or submits Johns, but I do think it’s a pretty realistic scenario to occur once Johns gets a bit tired, and starts to get sloppier defensively.
I’m not completely sold on Lima at this point and I think he’s being a bit overvalued in general, but I do think his offensive ceiling is higher than Johns and I’m willing to take a chance that his pure activity is enough to separate himself on the scorecards or lock up a late finish.
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On DraftKings, I don’t have a ton of interest in this fight, though I could regret it.
Lima is priced up to 8.9k and while a late finish could definitely help him contend for the optimal, we just saw that occur with Lima who only scored 72 DK points.
When Johns has been finished, he gave up 18 strikes in a round two KO (87ish DK), and 58 strikes in a round three SUB (84ish DK). Johns also defends both takedowns and strikes well, and doesn’t want to engage a lot, as mentioned above.
So my major concern for Lima is that despite any skill of his, Johns won’t help him create a positive environment for scoring. Sure he could win by KO/SUB in round one as well and smash, but that feels much less likely and he’s only +190 to win ITD as a whole.
Given the situation and the price, I’m pretty hesitant to pull the trigger here. I view Lima as a viable secondary option with some finishing equity, and potentially a fighter who could be contrarian. But I also don’t love the ceiling on Lima enough to really chase him more than the field.
Johns at 7.3k is arguably just as viable if not more viable, but he’s not a fun play either.
Johns just has a very low floor and ceiling, and it wouldn’t be wrong to fade him outright due to his limited offensive capabilities. He’s also +780 to win ITD which is awful.
My only hesitation is that if Johns wins, takedowns and control probably do come into play. And that’s not a real crazy outcome either. If that occurs, Johns could reasonably land 2-3 takedowns and score 75 DK points.
At 7.3k, am I stoked to get 75 points? Not exactly. And there are other live underdogs on this slate too. But it’s also a low-priced win, at a low ownership. It’s 10x. It’s viable to a degree but ultimately just a low-end secondary option.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lima by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
Fight Odds: Maverick -613, Horth +439
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Maverick 9.4k, Horth 6.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random matchup here as Miranda Maverick will take on Jamey-Lyn Horth this weekend.
Maverick is a decent fighter and decent striker. She has some pretty sharp hands. She lands 3.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.46 in return. She defends strikes at 59 percent. She outlanded Barber 43-26 at range which was a decent performance and she definitely showed some skills. I didn’t like the way she handled the pressure striking of Jasmine in her most recent loss though. She clearly looked uncomfortable when she wasn’t given space to operate.
Maverick is an okay grappler. She lands 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of landing takedowns and floating in top position. She outwrestled Gillian Robertson rather easily which was a good performance by her.
Maverick’s defensive grappling is okay. She defends takedowns at 41 percent. She was outgrappled by Blanchfield and Jasmine, but Blanchfield and Jasmine are good wrestlers. Maverick actually shut down the wrestling attack of Robertson which shows she isn’t awful. I do think her defensive grappling could use improvement though. However, I generally think she can stifle below average to average grapplers.
Maverick is basically a relatively decent fighter in WMMA. She can strike a bit, she can wrestle a bit, and she is pretty physical and tough. She will probably never be a serious contender for a UFC title but I do think she will stick around in the middle class of the UFC for a while.
Maverick will be taking on Jamey-Lyn Horth who is coming off a split decision win against Ivana Petrovic in her most recent matchup. I am going to be honest here, I thought Horth looked awful in that matchup. I bet Horth to win and although I thought she won, it was super close and she underperformed my expectations.
Horth is 7-1 professionally fighting mostly terrible competition. She did actually beat Lupita Godinez twice on the amateur circuit but those fights were about seven years ago.
Horth made her UFC debut against Hailey Cowan and basically won a low tempo striking fight where she landed 76 significant strikes in a pretty boring and terrible fight. She then lost a close decision to Veronica Hardy. She was a little too slow at range against Hardy and lost some of the striking exchanges early. However, she did start having success in the clinch and earned some top positions via grappling. However, she started implementing those grappling exchanges a bit too late.
Horth is a goofy fighter to describe. She is very big standing at 5’7” and also looks like a strong girl. However, it is hard to even describe where her offense comes from. On the feet, I don’t consider her all that good, especially at distance. She is slow and a bit plodding, and doesn’t have a ton of movement. She can go through the motions a little bit and wing some power punches occasionally. However, she looks a bit hittable to me and I have even seen her dropped on the regionals.
I consider her a mildly competent striker who can outstrike bad fighters. However, she doesn’t have a ton of striking depth. She really underperformed my striking expectations against Petrovic.
Most of Horth’s offense (at least on the regionals) usually comes from top position on the mat. She can hold position and looks semi decent on top. Although she gets top position in fights, I have only seen her land like three actual takedowns lol. She usually gets to top position off defending a shitty shot from her opponent and sprawling on top of them, or if her opponent falls over.
Horth’s TDD is a bit suspect to me. I have seen her get taken down off caught kicks at least five times in just a few fights. She does seem to know what she is doing in bottom position though. She can generally retain guard and work to her feet. She looks competent as a pure BJJ player and can surely defend herself on the mat. She is a BJJ brown belt. However, she looked a bit sloppy against Petrovic on the mat losing position, getting taken down and controlled, etc.
Horth just looks pretty mid to me. She is big which will help her. However, I question her offensive abilities as I don’t think she is that good of a striker or a real takedown threat. I do think her top game is okay as is her overall technical BJJ grappling game. I also think she is positionally strong in the clinch.
As far as this matchup goes, Maverick is surely the more technical and talented fighter everywhere. At range, I think Maverick is faster than Horth and should be at a mild to moderate advantage on the feet. I also think Maverick can land takedowns here and likely rack up some top position as well. Overall, I just tend to think Maverick is better everywhere which should result in her getting ahead in rounds and winning this fight.
The only argument I can make for Horth winning is that she is big and semi-competent everywhere. Horth has a four inch height advantage on Maverick and does look to be bigger overall. Horth can also maybe compete in the clinch and maybe her size can assist her in other areas in the fight as well.
Still though, Maverick is the more skilled fighter and has beaten far better fighters than Horth, so I have to go with the talent and more high-level experience in Maverick here.
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On DraftKings, Maverick feels like one of the safer options on the card but we’ve been down this path before with WMMA and it doesn’t always end well.
Plus, it’s still going to be difficult to pay up for Maverick at 9.4k, as she’ll need more than a safe win to reach a ceiling.
Maverick does fight at a high pace, and her DraftKings box score is actually very strong. She started her career off with wins of 110, 99, 110 and 119. Two of those were decisions too. More recently, she’s scored 85 and 81 in wins, which is probably a more realistic expectation.
I suppose I have mixed feelings because Maverick does not rate out too well. She’s +375 to win ITD which is awful and it surely makes sense to prioritize finishers in this range. Even a quality win with some wrestling that scores 85 won’t get close to the optimal at 9.4k.
However, Maverick has shown a ceiling, and that ceiling has come via wrestling too. If she can land 3-5 takedowns, Maverick has shown willingness to throw tons of ground strikes, which add up and could potentially push her into the 100 point range.
Horth isn’t terrible, but she’s allowed takedowns to each of her past three opponents, all of whom are worse than Maverick. It’s fairly possible that Maverick can land 3-5 takedowns, control Horth, and win a decision.
It still feels like a stretch to actively target Maverick, and it won’t be a recommendation from my end. Playing Stirling ahead of her for KO equity and Alvarez below is most likely the correct call.
Maverick does at least have a path, and if she’s going to be contrarian, I have mild interest. She’s also somewhat safe and should outscore most if all these fights do go the distance.
Ultimately, Maverick is too expensive for how she rates out but her historic wrestling ceiling has been strong, and this is another matchup where it could allow her to overperform and get in the mix, if the fighters surrounding her underperform slightly as well.
Horth at 6.8k does not interest me a whole lot.
I do think it’s possible she could compete and win an ugly decision, as that happens often in WMMA. I’m not even sure how it would look though or how many points she would score.
Horth just put up 60 in her last win and 67 in her debut win, which is awful. She’s +800 to win ITD here. I think you’re hoping for a random armbar win for Horth to hit a ceiling which I’m not a fan of betting on.
Otherwise, she’s an OK floor option in a fight that’s projected to go the distance. At her price if she scores 60, maybe she can contend if most other dogs on the slate lose. She’ll be extremely low owned.
I don’t like the play much at all though. Low floor, low ceiling, terrible metrics. Nothing more than a GPP floor based sprinkle for me and I’ll probably just fade her with a limited number of lineups.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Maverick by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Davey Grant vs. Ramon Taveras
Fight Odds: Grant -110, Taveras -104
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Taveras 8.2k, Grant 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a well matched fight here in the bantamweight division as Davey Grant and Ramon Taveras will bang it out this weekend.
I bet Daniel Marcos against Davey Grant in Grant’s last matchup. I definitely got lucky in that fight as I thought Grant won. The fight aged well for Grant as well, as Marcos has been dominating competition since that matchup.
I don’t mind Grant. He is a decently well-rounded fighter who tries very hard and is at least offensive. As a striker, Grant isn’t bad and he has surprised some people at times. He knocked out Jonathan Martinez as a big underdog in a good performance three years ago. He also fought Adrian Yanez to a VERY close decision loss. Obviously the Marcos fight aged well too.
Grant lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.82 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. I like his volume. He is quite aggressive and is willing to come forward and throw down. He has sneaky power in his hands and his last three wins have actually come by knockout. He has a tricky way of confusing his opponents as well. He controls range well and will land kicks and confuse his opponents. It really shut down the game of Marcos.
Grant is kind of a bit chinny though. He has not lost by knockout in the UFC but he has been knocked down in three of his last eight fights. I don’t consider his durability awful or anything. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him knocked out at some point. He is also 39 years old now and I always worry about fighters getting near 40, especially at the lower weight classes where speed and reflexes mean so much.
Grant is an okay grappler. He lands 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good. However, he only attempts about three takedowns per fight. He also generally does not rack up much control time on the mat. I think he is capable of landing takedowns against decent competition to disrupt their rhythm or something. However, I doubt he will be able to do much more than that, except against low tier fighters. Grant did submit Raphael Assuncao with an inverted triangle though which was a nice feather in his cap.
Grant will be taking on Ramon Taveras. Taveras is 30 years old and 10-2 professionally. I do want to point out that Taveras is from and fights out of Florida. So he will have the crowd on his side facing the Brit Davey Grant.
Taveras lost by early knockout on the Contender Series against Serhiy Sidey. He then won by early knockout in the Contender Series against Cortavious Romious. In his UFC debut, he coincidentally fought Serhiy Sidey again and won a controversial decision in a fight where he was outlanded 79-62 in significant strikes. It was a close fight though and Taveras certainly had moments and landed a knockdown. I do think Sidey should have gotten the nod though.
Taveras is a power boxer. He will switch stances but is mostly a southpaw and loves throwing boxing combinations. He has a good 1-2, a decent jab, and he can counter well at times too. I think he is a competent boxer who can be in some fun action fights at this level. He also has some power and has won by knockout five times.
The issue is I don’t think Taveras is much other than that. He rarely offensively wrestles and although he looks semi-competent on the mat, I don’t think he can take down and hold fighters down at this level. His defensive wrestling at least looks competent and he will threaten with front chokes. However, I don’t even trust him to defend takedowns against anyone who is a good grappler just yet. Furthermore, Taveras has been knocked out twice as well.
I think Taveras is fine and can win striking fights at this level but they will probably have to generally come by knockout. I guess he can win decisions but they will probably have to be power based to a degree. I just think he is a bit limited other than that.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Taveras could win. He has power and could hurt Grant. I also really think the crowd could help Taveras here as well as it is a competitive fight with a realistic chance to go to the scorecards. That crowd boost could sway a decision in Taveras’ favor.
However, I just trust the experience of Grant more. Grant has beaten some good guys and I think I favor Grant over the duration. I like his volume a little more and I think Grant is the better kicker as well.
This is honestly a step down in competition for Grant too, and I just tend to think his striking style could disrupt the rhythm of Taveras. Grant winning by knockout isn’t a far fetched outcome either and Grant very well may have a grappling advantage as well.
I am just going to trust Grant more at this point. He has so much experience and has beaten better guys than Taveras. I also just think Taveras is mostly power reliant here which isn’t always a good thing when getting steps up in competition.
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On DraftKings, it’s another tough matchup with the primary merit being the fact that both guys can be hurt.
We can’t project much wrestling on either side, and volume striking isn’t necessarily a specialty either. I see the primary path to a ceiling for either fighter being a knockout.
That’s very tricky because at face value, Davey Grant and Ramon Taveras are not fighters I have much interest in trusting to secure a knockout. I consider Grant a bit sloppy and unorthodox, and Taveras is pretty basic.
The fight is -130 to end inside the distance which certainly shows some finishing potential, while the fight is -125 Over 2.5 rounds. An extended fight would be frustrating and is probably the most likely outcome.
Taveras is priced at 8.2k and he’s currently the underdog, so I doubt he’ll be very popular, especially coming off a close 65 point win. He’s +215 to win ITD here which is OK though.
Grant is 8k as the slight favorite, and I’d guess he’ll be more popular of the two, but he still probably won’t be owned much with recent wins of 86 and 89. He’s +225 to win ITD.
Honestly, if you have a larger portfolio to work with, this isn’t a bad spot to be overweight. It’s just so gross to put faith in either side that I don’t expect a ton of public ownership to show up.
And Taveras has been knocked out in both of his pro losses. He’s also scored a KD in each of his last two wins. Grant has won ITD in each of his last four victories, and he’s been knocked down multiple times in that span as well, now approaching age 40. There are definitely signs that we could see a finish.
It’s just hard to trust and hard to know which side it will come from. Splitting your exposure to be slightly overweight makes sense. I think I lean toward Taveras being the more dangerous puncher at this time though, and I might lean toward him for KO upside if I had to choose, along with his youth.
It’s a tough, boom or bust secondary fight as a whole with mild intrigue given the field should be scared off as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Grant by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Knutsson -233, Rodriguez +195
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Knutsson 8.8k, Rodriguez 7.4k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a low key solid matchup here in the curtain jerker as Josefine Knutsson will take on Piera Rodriguez.
Knutsson is 8-0 professionally and 4-0 in UFC related fights. She is 28 years old and fights out of Sweden. She won a fight on the Road to UFC and the Contender Series, and most recently defeated Marnic Mann and Julia Polastri in the Octagon. All four of those wins were by unanimous decision.
Knutsson is a volume striker and a good one. She lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.07 in return. She outlanded Julia Polastri 124-64 in significant strikes, who honestly isn’t bad.
Knutsson throws very well in combination. She is very fast. Her hand speed is quick and she is pretty ruthless in the clinch as well. She has a nasty front / teep kick to the body as well. She is definitely going to continue to win striking fights at this level and is an interesting prospect because of her volume striking alone.
Knutsson is also capable of landing some takedowns with her trip takedowns from the clinch. She has landed eight takedowns in her four UFC fights. However, I don’t think she is a skilled offensive wrestler and don’t think she will outwrestle good UFC level competition.
My main concern with Knutsson is her TDD. She conceded three takedowns against Julia Polastri and honestly could have lost that fight had a few things gone Polastri’s way. Knutsson was sloppily taken down in round one and mounted, and was saved by the bell. She also was taken down in rounds two and three. In round three, Knutsson was put in a full on arm triangle choke and only escaped by exploding out. I definitely think Knutsson will get outgrappled at some point. She sort of knows how to play guard and use her feet to kick off to escape. She isn’t clueless on the mat. However, that guard playing and kick off game from the bottom won’t work when she gets steps up in competition.
Knutsson will be taking on UFC veteran Piera Rodriguez. Man, we bet Rodriguez in her last matchup against Ariane Carnelossi and Rodriguez looked -1000 but we lost the bet as Carnelossi pathetically took a DQ win on a headbutt that didn’t even hurt her. That fight leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
Anyway, Rodriguez is 9-2 professionally and 2-2 in the UFC. Obviously one of her losses was to Carnelossi so she realistically has only lost one fight by actually getting beaten. I actually think Rodriguez looked decent in her wins against Kay Hansen and Sam Hughes. She then got outgrappled against Gillian Robertson. Robertson is a really good grappler so I won’t be too hard on Rodriguez for that loss.
Rodriguez is a decent boxer and she has some decent hands. She lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.84 in return, and defends strikes at 58 percent. I consider her best in close quarters where she can throw her hook / boxing combinations. She is somewhat skilled in close range, but I don’t consider her all that great either. However, I do think she does a good job staying composed under pressure and evading / limiting engagements. I thought she handled the pressure of Hughes well and generally stayed safe on the feet. She also hurt Carnelossi and handled her well, so you can tell Rodriguez is at least competent standing.
Rodriguez will also mix in takedowns. She lands 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about eight takedowns per fight. I actually consider her a decent grappler with solid takedowns. She has landed 3, 3, and 5 takedowns in her three UFC decisions. I like that consistency. She is also one of the rare women who know how to actually finish a single leg.
I actually consider Roriguez’s defensive wrestling decent. She defends takedowns at 66 percent and can generally scramble up as well.
I don’t mind Rodriguez honestly. She can strike a bit, grapple a bit, seems tough, and her cardio is fine too. She is UFC level.
As far as this matchup goes, this is very binary. Although I think Rodriguez can defend herself on the feet here, I don’t think she can match the pace and combination striking of Knutsson. Knutsson should be able to win rounds on the feet and pull away, and I have to pick Knutsson for the volume striking advantage alone.
However, I really do think Rodriguez has a path to victory here. Seeing Knutsson get taken down in all 3 rounds against Polastri was legitimately concerning. Rodriguez has a good single leg too and I am pretty sure that she can land takedowns here.
The issue for Rodriguez is that she really needs to make those takedowns count. I think Rodriguez’s top control is okay but she has topped out with five minutes of control in her UFC fights. That honestly will probably not be enough here as Knutsson will probably get ahead on the cards in the striking exchanges. I still think Rodriguez is the best grappler Knutsson has faced though and Knutsson does play guard. So perhaps Rodriguez can really dominate on the mat here. It honestly wouldn’t shock me.
I am still going to pick Knutsson here. I think she is so much better on the feet to the point where Rodriguez must dominate on the mat to win. I am leaning against domination on the mat for Rodriguez. I do think Rodriguez will have some takedown success, but I don’t have as much faith in her to completely dominate on the mat minute to minute. I think the line seems reasonable as I mildly favor Knutsson to win but do give Rodriguez some respectable win equity as well.
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On DraftKings, this is a pretty tough matchup to start the night with.
One primary concern is the binary nature. Knutsson looks like a pretty legit prospect to me, except for the fact that she fell over far too easily in her last fight, and gave up too much top position time.
It really leaves a cloud hanging over Knutsson because Polastri isn’t some special wrestler, so it seems quite likely that others can have success too. Will Rodriguez be that fighter to wrestle hard for 15 minutes and get a win? It’s tough to rely on but it surely seems possible.
And otherwise, Knutsson isn’t going to rate out particularly well for 8.8k. She is not guaranteed any wrestling success, nor a finish, with a +525 ITD line.
However, Knutsson does strike at a very high volume, and she has been willing to mix in takedowns before. It’s actually led to a 110 point decision win in her debut, and a 90 point decision win most recently, despite being taken down and held down.
The most realistic projection for Knutsson is still just a high volume of strikes, and that alone won’t be enough to reach a ceiling. At 8.8k, it’s perfectly fine to avoid Knutsson given her fighting profile, and likelihood for the fight to extend.
I do also think her pure pacing, plus willingness to wrestle at times, gives her a reasonable floor/ceiling outcome. This slate doesn’t have a ton of obvious choices so I actually don’t mind Knutsson as a secondary target at 8.8k.
She will not be a priority and I think is more likely to miss the optimal than hit it, but her offensive production is pretty strong and if she actually does just keep the fight upright, I wouldn’t rule out another high 80s, low 90s type score.
Rodriguez at 7.4k is pretty viable.
I think she’s likely to lose, but the path to victory for her is obvious and there’s no reason to think she’s incapable of landing a few takedowns. We’ve seen her top out at five takedowns which is probably enough to get the win against most standard opponents.
I don’t feel great about the skills of Rodriguez, and her finishing upside seems pretty thin at +525. She doesn’t need to be a priority either and she might just get outstruck and lose. However, I wouldn’t want to miss this spot knowing Knutsson’s weaknesses, and so I think Rodriguez is an easy secondary target who I’ll probably play around the field percentage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Knutsson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)