UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura (12/7/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
Fight Odds: Pantoja -257, Asakura +213
Odds to Finish: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Pantoja 8.8k, Asakura 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
Fresh blood in the flyweight division will immediately challenge for the title, as former Rizin bantamweight champion Kai Asakura will make his UFC debut on Saturday and compete for the flyweight championship against Alexandre Pantoja.
Asakura holds a professional record of 21-4, and he’s earned 13 wins by knockout and three by submission.
He hasn’t actually competed as a flyweight since 2017, and has fought for the bantamweight championship many times since. It does pose a question as to whether Asakura will actually make the weight limit on Saturday, though my assumption is he will be fine.
Asakura is a pretty decent fighter and he’s competed against many strong opponents throughout his career. He has a win and a loss against Kyoji Horiguchi, as well as a win and a loss against Manel Kape. He most recently won the bantamweight title by beating Juan Archuleta.
Asakua comes from a street fighting background but has developed a solid MMA game. He’s a black belt in karate and a purple belt in BJJ, but I would say he excels on the feet.
He wants to play an outside game where he’s not easy to hit, and he will dart into range to box where he has fast hands and some power. I like that he can attack all levels, and he’s been able to rip opponents to the body at times from inside and the clinch.
Asakura doesn’t feel like a special prospect to me though. He’s 31 and pretty well-rounded, but I don’t know if he’s dominant in any one area of the game.
Though he’s a damaging striker and has been able to find the button on many opponents, I wouldn’t say he has immense one-shot power. He’s also been knocked out in three of his four losses, including by both Kape and Horiguchi.
I also don’t consider him an elite volume striker. He’s more of the type to have success because his opponents can not chase him down, rather than someone who will aim to brawl and win on heart alone. His volume is fine, but he’s going to largely have success when he can dictate the pace and range.
I’m also not sure Askaura is a real threat on the mat. He doesn’t wrestle offensively too often, and his defensive wrestling is respectable, but I’ve also seen him dragged down on a few occasions. That will likely be key in this matchup against Pantoja, who wants to drag everyone down and take their back.
Pantoja is coming off a super fun but competitive victory over Steve Erceg, in which Pantoja needed ground success in the final round to secure the victory.
He still landed nine takedowns in that fight overall and showed his experience, but Pantoja was getting cracked on the feet at times and still lost multiple rounds.
Pantoja is a very difficult fighter to beat though because he’s good everywhere, and can fight at a high pace over 25 minutes. He’s now gone the full 25 minute distance three times in a row, and has averaged 116 sig. strikes and 7.6 takedowns landed during that span, which is elite.
Simply put, that kind of offensive production gives Pantoja an incredibly high floor in any given matchup. He’s a high-volume muay-thai guy who can fight through adversity, and a good wrestler with some of the best back takes in the sport.
Honestly, the biggest concern I have for Pantoja is the size discrepancy.
Asakura will be a few inches taller, and a couple inches longer, and he’s a pretty good athlete who is used to fighting up a division. To be fair, many opponents whom he’s competed against are true flyweights, like Kape and Horiguchi.
I’m also not completely sure how well Asakura will fend off the grappling threat of Pantoja. I think it’s possible that he can sprawl and keep the fight upright at times. There’s some tape out there of him wrestling with Merab Dvalishvili recently, who should at least be giving him some good looks.
I do think there are openings for Pantoja to take the back though, and if he’s persistent, my guess is Pantoja can still earn spots of control throughout the fight. It could potentially lead to a finish, as Pantoja is a threat from the back.
At the very least, I have to give the upside on the mat to Pantoja. I doubt Asakura will pursue an aggressive wrestling attack, and I don’t see him having tremendous success there even if he’s able to land 1-2 takedowns. Pantoja has real control upside on the ground.
On the feet, I have to favor Pantoja as well. He’s much more experienced in the setting of UFC championship fights, and his volume, toughness and consistency are elite. I would lean toward him throwing enough to stay competitive in rounds and likely edge them, and I think he has damage capability as well.
That’s likely where Asakura can compete though. Pantoja can be hit, and only defends strikes at 50%. He’s absorbed 123 sig. strikes per fight in his last three, which is not good. I’m skeptical that Asakura can keep up that kind of pace, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have some success in general.
Pantoja has only been knocked down once in the UFC though, by Figueiredo in 2019, where he still survived. So it’s tough to give Asakura much KO equity.
I’m still pretty cautious about projecting Pantoja as a heavy favorite here. He’s 34 years old and has had multiple competitive fights recently that were swung with one single round. Asakura is bigger, skillful, and hungry.
I do expect the overall quality of Pantoja’s game to shine through over 25 minutes but unless he’s in back control, there’s no reason to expect this to be one-sided.
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On DraftKings, Pantoja is priced at 8.8k and should be one of the most popular fighters on the entire slate.
He’s coming off wins of 143, 143 and 143, and no, that’s not an error. Three consecutive scores of 143 points. It’s pretty difficult to ignore at 8.8k in another five-rounder.
With that said, I’ve noted his averages, and I’m less confident Pantoja is going to land 7.6 takedowns here. I’m also less confident that Asakura will want to engage enough to allow Pantoja to land 120+ sig. strikes. But over 25 minutes, if Pantoja wins, his offensive production is very likely enough to keep him competitive for the optimal, if not blow it out of the water.
At 8.8k, Pantoja is a very easy target this week. He feels quite cheap considering there are seven fighters priced above him. He’s a moderate favorite to win at -255 and still has a respectable ITD line at +100.
Things could get weird if we see lots of favorites crush, and perhaps Pantoja just gets kicked off the optimal by Rakhmonov and someone else in this range. But that’s only if Pantoja underperforms his recent average.
Simply due to the high projected ownership, it wouldn’t be crazy to pivot away from Pantoja in spots, especially in larger fields. But he’s going to rate out as one of the top overall targets in points per dollar, and he’s shown one of the highest upsides of any fighter on the entire slate based on his recent profile.
I will likely end up with moderate-heavy ownership to Pantoja by default, though the field will share a similar strategy.
Asakura at 7.4k is certainly in play as well.
He’s not my favorite fighter in this bottom tier, but he’s among a few standouts who are priced below 7.5k. If you can pay up to 7.5k or further, I do think you’re acquiring more win equity, but those options aren’t guarantees either.
Asakura in a win should smash. I would probably expect it to come ITD, though a decision is possible as well. He’s +285 to win ITD which isn’t too bad, and he has some KO equity in his profile.
Also, I noted Pantoja’s defensive issues recently. He’s absorbing a ton of strikes and some takedowns. It could mean that Asakura’s offense will be more effective than it looks in a vacuum, and that rounds could wind up more competitive as well.
And at 7.4k, in a fight projected to start round 4 at -120, we should get a few rounds from Asakura. He’ll carry one of the higher floors in this range, and could also be among the better scorers in this range in a loss.
To me, this is just an easy secondary target. Nothing more and nothing less. Unless you specifically want to play a leverage game against Pantoja, which is viable, I would recommend coming in near the field on Asakura.
It’s not always easy to nail down how a fighter’s game will translate to the UFC, let alone as their debut in a championship fight at a new weight class. And we’re lacking data.
Given the price, five-rounds and opponent, Asakura feels like a very viable secondary target for floor and upside. I would also not want to take a real stand against the field as I’m picking him to lose, and would rather look elsewhere for win equity with a smaller portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Patoja by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry
Fight Odds: Rakhmonov -382, Garry +299
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Rakhmonov 9.2k, Garry 7k
Weight Class: 170
We have a top contender fight in the welterweight division between whom many believe to be the next true champion in Shavkat Rakhmonov, and his faux counterpart Ian Garry.
This will be a five-round matchup and is arguably the most intriguing one on the entire slate, given the stakes.
Rakhmonov has done well to crush the doubt of anyone skeptical of his game, myself included, and he’s currently holding an 18-0 pro record with six UFC victories, and each of those six have come inside the distance.
They’ve largely not been competitive fights either. Rakhmonov has utterly dominated the majority of his opponents, and has come away with several highlight reels in the process.
He’s ferocious from top position, a very opportunistic submission grappler, and a super effective striker who also excels with damaging shots in the clinch.
My primary concern has been his volume. In five of his six fights, he’s not landed 30 or more strikes. I still feel some level of skepticism of his volume capabilities, partially because there are many points throughout his fights where he is also doing very little.
The moments and levels of effectiveness have been very one sided in his favor, but the pure moment activity has not necessarily been the same.
However, in his one extended fight with Geoff Neal, Rakhmonov landed 113 significant strikes over 14 minutes, including 74 at distance, which is very solid volume. He did look vulnerable a bit when Neal hurt him in the third round, but Rakhmonov was able to recover, clinch, and work to a back take position where he found a late RNC.
All things considered, I have to respect him.
Additionally, his pure wrestling looks quite strong. He lands 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and given his damage/finishing upside on the mat, Rakhmonov has found great success in grappling exchanges. I’m not sold he’s some truly elite wrestler from a technical standard but he’s very physical, and it’s simply another aspect of his game that feels like a real threat.
Ian Machado Garry is largely tied to Conor McGregor as the next Irish star whose talents are just as good on the mic as they are in the cage (for better or worse). He’s been pushed by the promotion for this reason.
And to his credit, he has succeeded. Garry is 15-0 professionally with eight wins in the UFC, though only three have come inside the distance.
Garry has also had enough questionable moments that it’s more difficult to label him as a true contender in the division. As two examples, he was badly hurt by both Jordan Williams and Song Kenan, who are both very poor strikers with a bit of power.
Again to his credit, he survived both and came back to win dominantly. But it’s pretty clear Garry can be hit and hurt, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a knockout loss come eventually.
Garry is also just a bit less physical and a bit less effective. It’s not that Garry is a bad athlete, he’s a good one, but he’s simply less likely to steamroll his opponent with physicality alone.
He’s also knocked down four of his eight opponents, which is good, but I wouldn’t say he has one-shot KO power.
Garry is a pretty strong minute winner. He works well in and out of range to limit how often he gets hit. He lands 5.50 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.17 per minute.
His pure volume ceiling is also pretty decent. He’s topped out at 127 and 116 sig. strikes and looks fairly comfortable over three rounds. He can kick at distance too and work multiple levels. He’s quick.
Garry is also a competent wrestler. He lands 0.77 takedowns per 15 minutes, so it hasn’t really been a means for his victories in the UFC, but he’s landed four takedowns in his past three fights. He has a black belt in Judo and is a capable submission grappler as well, though not an elite one.
To me, Garry profiles best as a round winner. He’s pretty sound at distance, and he throws strikes at a high rate. He’s usually going to be ahead on the numbers and he’s effective enough to occasionally hurt guys.
I do think he’ll struggle in general with power components, and I wouldn’t expect him to beat great wrestlers.
That’s not the best conclusion to come to when facing Rakhmonov, to be honest. I actually do like Garry’s game in general, and I do think he can be competitive here on the minutes. But it also feels like Rakhmonov is more powerful and more effective, and potentially more durable standing. And he’s also quite likely the more effective clinch fighter and wrestler, with more submission grappling upside.
Potentially, Rakhmonov can actually keep up the same work rate as Garry too.
I just do trust Garry to throw. He’ll kick at distance, he’ll jab, and he’ll try to avoid getting hit really hard. Rakhmonov can also jab, but he’s a bit less consistent per minute, and I think Garry could get ahead in rounds where Rakhmonov doesn’t have big moments, or if he starts to slow down.
This being a five-round fight definitely helps Garry in my mind. Again, it’s possible Rakhmonov is just a god and can go five rounds hard, but he uses more power and I think Garry is the more likely of the two to be fresher later.
That feels like the most realistic path for Garry. Stay competitive early, avoid getting hurt badly, and then edge out rounds later when Rakhmonov is tired. He could also hurt Rakhmonov, who was just hurt by Neal, but I don’t think it’s a super likely outcome.
My lean is still toward Rakhmonov being more effective throughout, landing big shots in the clinch, landing some takedowns and potentially working into a dangerous position on the mat. He may not win every round but he’ll likely have enough big moments to carry him throughout the fight, even if the finish doesn’t materialize early. And that could happen too.
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On DraftKings, Rakhmonov is sure to be one of, if not the most popular fighter on the slate at 9.2k.
He’s undefeated, with a DK box score of 109, 98, 111, 112, 98 and 100. Now he’s in a five-rounder, and is lined at -375 to win and -150 to win ITD. He’ll rate out as a smash play.
My feeling is that Pantoja will also gain attention below Rakhmonov, and possibly Hooper at the top, and the rest of the fighters in that top range will likely see significantly less ownership.
The downside I’ve always noted with Rakhmonov is tied into the downside in his fighter profile. He’s not always active minute per minute. That’s why in two of his 2nd round victories, he has failed to score 100 points. He’s also hit 100 on the mark in a round one win.
Those are great scores. Are they guaranteed to be optimal at 9.2k? No, definitely not. In fact, if Rakhmonov scores 98-100 on this slate at 9.2k, I would guess he is not optimal.
So for that reason alone, you could argue that being underweight on Rakhmonov is the right call. This fight is actually -130 to go Over 3.5 rounds, if we’re not seeing Rakhmonov finish until round three, it’s a really tough guarantee that he’s going to reach 100 points.
With that said, his floor is incredibly high, and his ceiling is still very high as well. He’s shown enough wrestling + volume activity in extended fights, and if this fight does go five rounds, I assume he will produce enough offense to contend for the optimal. He very well could just win ITD to.
So it’s an easy place to start this week. Rakhmonov at 9.2k is very likely to win based on the odds, and he has one of the best floor/ceiling combinations on the entire slate. He’s a very safe target and one of the more likely fighters to end up optimal overall.
Just know that he could be very popular, projected into the high 40s or lower 50s, and he’s also capable of performing well, winning, and putting up 98-100 DK points. In large fields, I wouldn’t mind taking a share off the main event in case that occurs, and gaining leverage against the field.
Garry at 7k is certainly in play as well.
We’re expected to get 15-20 minutes of action in which case, Garry can produce points even in a loss. 30-50 points at 7.2k in a loss is very possible.
On this kind of slate, I don’t hate that. The bottom tier of fighters are going to have very minimal win equity, and not all have elite upside either. I could see Garry actually contending for the optimal in a loss if things go poorly for the dogs on this card, though I typically don’t build with that in mind on a 14-fight slate.
If you’re just looking for winners, Garry is less appealing. I don’t mind him as a secondary play by default because it’s a five-round fight and he can produce offense, but I’m not necessarily getting my hopes up for a win.
I’m using him more as a floor based play in smaller fields, or as pure leverage off Rakhmonov which I don’t mind either at 7k. If I can, I’ll likely pay up further for pure win equity in the majority of tournaments.
When I need to punt below 7.3k, Garry is one of my favorite options, again by default. Some rounds could be competitive and he could potentially sneak away with the decision. He has some power. Five rounds. It’s a very tough matchup though and I’ll have to cap my exposure because of that.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rakhmonov by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
Fight Odds: Gane -368, Volkov +290
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Gane 9k, Volkov 7.2k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a rematch here between Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov, two of the best strikers in UFC heavyweight division history. The winner of this matchup very well may fight for a title so this is an important fight.
Gane is truly a world-class volume striker. Gane lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.19 in return. He defends strikes at a fantastic 63 percent. He has never been outlanded in significant strikes in his UFC career. He has a great jab and straight punches, and can mix in kicks as well. He has a great outside game and controls range well. He is tremendous defensively and dominates the head strike numbers in all of his fights which I love.
Gane doesn’t really wrestle offensively. He lands 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes. He defends takedowns at 50 percent which is poor. However, he is super athletic and uses good footwork, so he is hard to get a hold of. I thought his TDD looked improved against Spivac which was his most recent fight.
Gane is going to probably beat every fighter in this division if it stays standing. I think his TDD is still a concern, but I don’t think it is awful and that only the top grapplers in this division will beat him.
Gane will be taking on Alexander Volkov. Volkov is a solid fighter. He is predominantly a striker and a volume striker in particular. He lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.00 in return. Those are fantastic metrics. He also has some power and has knocked out four of his last seven opponents.
On the feet, Volkov is legitimately live to beat any heavyweight in the world. I think highly of him as a striker. He is diverse skilled, and has fantastic cardio for a big man. I have always liked Volkov and we played him as an underdog in his last matchup against Pavlovich where he won a dominant decision.
I also just think Volkov doesn’t get enough credit for his durability. This guy has fought the best heavyweights in the world for years. This guy has 16 UFC fights and he has only been knocked out one time which was a last minute knockout loss to Derrick Lewis after dominating the fight before that. I think that is a great durability track record considering who he has fought in the heavyweight division and because knockouts at heavyweight are so common.
Volkov doesn’t wrestle much and only lands 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. He does have submission skills though and did submit Tai Tuivasa, as well as having ground success against Alexandr Romanov.
Volkov defends takedowns at 73 percent. I generally have considered Volkov hard to take and hold down. He did have a pretty bad showing on the mat against Tom Aspinall. However, other than that, I think Volkov is generally hard to take and hold down and beat on the mat.
Cyril Gane and Alexander Volkov first fought in June of 2021. The fight took place on the feet and went all five rounds. The judges basically concluded that Gane won three or four rounds while Volkov won one or two. It was a competitive fight, but Gane was the rightful winner. I personally gave Gane four rounds. Essentially, Gane had three clear rounds while two rounds were extremely competitive. The fight was competitive though and Gane only outlanded Volkov 135-115 in significant strikes.
However, Gane won the head strike battle by a clean margin, outlanding Volkov 60-41 in head strikes. Gane actually outlanded Volkov to the head in all five rounds. Gane also definitely landed the harder and more impactful strikes throughout, especially with his hands. Other advantages that Gane had was that he had more hand speed and was generally the advancing party throughout. Gane particularly had success with his jab and straight punches. Gane mixed up some body punching as well.
Volkov did fight well though and was by no means in over his head. He did have some success of his own. He landed some nice leg kicks in round one. Furthermore, Gane sometimes tends to build and start off a bit slow early, but then picks up the tempo later. So Volkov was able to take advantage of Gane early while Gane was finding his distance and timing, and land some leg kicks to have a solid round 1. Once Gane found his rhythm though, it was clear he was just a bit better than Volkov.
I don’t see much that has changed since fight one and I basically expect this fight to go similarly. I like Gane to win because he won the head strike battle in fight one and always wins the head strike battle in every fight. I expect the same thing to occur here.
I think Gane will do more damage to the head and land the more effective strikes throughout.
When a fight goes to the cards, 78 percent of the time the fighter who lands more head strikes wins the fight so that definitely is a reason to like Gane here. I do expect this to go the distance too as both guys are durable. However, if anyone gets a finish I actually think it will be Gane as he has the head strike and effective striking edge.
I think my biggest concern with Gane here is that he does sometimes start slow and this is a three round fight. Gane still won the first round against Volkov on some judge’s scorecards, but getting off to a slow start in a three round fight could get him into unnecessary trouble. Gane had five rounds to work with in the first fight though so there is a good chance he starts off faster this time around.
Also, Gane is just a bit better than Volkov and Volkov didn’t win a single clear round in the first fight while Gane won three extremely clear rounds. I expect the same dynamic to play out here. I expect Volkov to compete as he is quite good. However, I think Gane will probably win a somewhat competitive but clear decision by landing the more effective head strikes throughout. I doubt wrestling comes into play as neither guy wrestles often.
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On DraftKings, I’m not particularly interested in this fight and it sets up as a pretty clear bust unless one guy wins by KO early.
Gane is priced at 9k, and despite coming off a 114 point win, it’s worth mentioning that Gane only scored 85 in a five-round win against Volkov the first time. Had that fight only gone three rounds, Gane would have scored 63 points.
Now this matchup is -275 to go the distance, which means Gane’s ITD line will be bad at +300. He may very well be low owned due to this dynamic, but I think it’s correct.
Gane did attempt four TDs last time so there’s mild wrestling equity on paper, but I don’t really think it comes to fruition. And otherwise you’re just betting on random HW variance for him to secure the KO.
At 9k as a contrarian target, I still don’t love Gane as there’s just such obvious and pretty extreme bust potential in what should be his most likely path to victory. A KO is possible but I’m not really interested in chasing it at this price on this slate.
Volkov at 7.2k doesn’t really interest me either.
He’s even less likely to wrestle, and he’s even less likely to win by KO. He’s only +600 to win ITD here.
An extended fight for Volkov in which he lands 70 strikes is possible (what he did last time), but that still only scores 58 DK points in a win. Not only is his path to a win difficult, but his path to a ceiling feels very difficult.
If that interests you, fine. It’s not impossible all the mid and bottom dogs could lose and 63 points in a decision win finds the optimal at 7.2k. I can’t really play for that outcome myself, and I’m just not going to play Volkov at all really.
There are so many other underdogs who despite risk, have some upside, or ones with better floors. Volkov will likely be low owned as well but outside of a contrarian mix-in, I don’t have any real interest in Volkov from a fantasy perspective.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gane by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie
Fight Odds: Mitchell -783, Gracie +530
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Mitchell 9.5k, Gracie 6.7k
Weight Class: 145
What a bizarre fight we have between two submission grappling specialists in Bryce Mitchell and Kron Gracie.
Gracie carries the name and lineage from the bloodline of jiu-jitsu. The son of the legend Rickson Gracie, Kron is a longtime black belt and one of the sport’s elite competitors, earning various titles including a championship in ADCC in 2013.
Kron transitioned to professional MMA in 2015 when he fought in RIZIN, and made his UFC debut in 2019 against Alex Caceres, a fight in which he won by RNC quickly.
He then took a fight against Cub Swanson, and boxed his way to an awkward decision loss. After that, he mostly went MIA for four years, living in the wilderness and training as much as his heart desired
Gracie eventually returned to the Octagon in 2023 to fight Charles Jourdain, and Gracie put up an abysmal performance. He never attempted a single takedown, pulled guard like five times against Jourdain, and just chose to land bunny shots for minutes at a time from his back.
While he may have liked to continue to box, Jourdain was the superior distance striker and kicker, and was easily getting the better of those exchanges.
Gracie is now 5-2 professionally at age 36, and doesn’t have anything left to prove to anyone but himself.
As far as my fight expectations, both the Swanson loss and the Jourdain loss highly concern me. Considering his truly elite BJJ pedigree, I would prefer that he wrestle often. Instead, he boxed with Swanson for a full 15 minutes, and didn’t even attempt a takedown in rounds one or two. Falling to his back over and over against Jourdain was an awful game plan as well.
It’s very difficult to imagine Gracie has grown as a fighter in his time off. I’m really not even sure how hard he’s been training.
He will still be an elite submission grappler, and a threat on the mat. Who knows if he will even attempt takedowns though, or just spend time falling on his back to throw up submissions from guard.
He’s not an incapable boxer but he has no distance game, and just tends to walk forward and half-speed until he can reach the pocket. It’s a recipe to land some strikes but any faster opponent should be able to outwork him.
This is a very weird matchup because Gracie will be taking on a bigger name and fun grappler in Bryce Mitchell, who is a fan-favorite of many.
Mitchell has been one of only a couple guys to pull off a Twister submission in the UFC, and he’s beaten some quality opponents like Edson Barboza as well.
I like Mitchell’s game and I think he’s a dangerous opponent for fighters who don’t specialize in wrestling. The weird thing about this matchup is that Kron is a far superior submission grappler to Mitchell.
So Mitchell’s typical game of take you down, take your back and threaten for a submission isn’t really there.
If this becomes a boxing match, well, Mitchell isn’t great there either. He lands 2.30 sig. strikes per minute and has only reached 40 total sig. strikes in two of his nine UFC bouts.
I don’t think Mitchell is a terrible striker, he can kick a little bit and he has some power from the Southpaw stance. He just doesn’t throw a lot of volume, and he’s been hurt badly in two recent fights, including getting stretchered out of the cage (basically) by Josh Emmett last December.
I suppose the main reason to even consider Mitchell a favorite at all is what we saw between Gracie and Jourdain. Gracie just fell to his back and let Jourdain lay on top of him for minutes at a time.
Jourdain isn’t a great grappler, nor a great wrestler. If he can survive on top of Gracie, Mitchell should be able to in theory as well, either via wrestling or via Gracie pulling guard.
Still, Mitchell won’t just advance from there. He’ll probably be stuck in full guard and won’t be threatening at all, unless Gracie is very hurt or tired.
Conversely, let’s not forget that Mitchell has been submitted multiple times in MMA. Yes by Ilia Topuria, but by Brad Katona as well on TUF. If Gracie happens to hop on his back at some point, he could potentially threaten for a sub. Or maybe he could threaten in a scramble as well.
On the feet, Gracie is just so slow that it’s tough to give him much win equity. But at least he lands shots. He’s landed 4.8 sig. strikes per minute at distance, while absorbing 7.4 per minute, with 71% of his fight time taking place at distance. Mitchell is landing and absorbing 3.6 per minute at distance, with only 31% of his fight time taking place at distance.
There is a chance in my mind that Gracie can fight competitively or win rounds via his pocket boxing, simply because Mitchell doesn’t throw a lot. Gracie may even be more durable here. But he’s so slow and not a real KO threat, and also Mitchell may just wrestle to “safety” if he has to.
On paper, I think this is a far closer fight than the betting line entails. Mitchell’s game is great for beating strikers but he’s outclassed here as a submission threat. And he has other holes in his game which make him vulnerable overall. But who knows if Gracie is even in form, and if Gracie can’t wrestle and wants to spend a lot of time on his back, Mitchell can easily rack up the control time necessary to win rounds.
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On DraftKings, I hate paying up for Mitchell at 9.5k and I lean toward fading him outright with a more limited portfolio.
Sure, Mitchell could win by submission or by knockout, but those aren’t likely outcomes in my mind. Perhaps Gracie is just so unfit to fight that Mitchell can gas him, but Gracie is so experienced on the mat he should always be safe.
The fight is also lined at -220 to go the distance which backs up my thoughts, with Mitchell lined at +250 to win ITD.
Mitchell isn’t really a volume fighter in any capacity either, so without an early finish, his chances of reaching a ceiling are limited.
The only case I can make is if he lands takedowns every round, holds Gracie down for the whole time every round, and racks up sig. strikes. Jourdain was just credited with 6:48 of control and 95 non-sig. strikes. Those add up and gave him an additional 20 points on top of another 12 for control.
But because Gracie was pulling guard, Jourdain never got credited for takedowns, so his overall DK score wasn’t ideal at 93ish. It’s not bad, but at 9.5k, Mitchell needs to smash to contend for the optimal.
Mitchell himself has been hit or miss on landing strikes on the mat. Against Ige with 5 tds, he landed 14. Against Rosa with 3 tds and 13 minutes of control, he landed 20. Against Barboza with 4 tds, he landed 148.
So I don’t want to completely rule out the possibility of Gracie not being in shape, falling on his ass for 13 minutes and yielding 150 ground strikes to give Mitchell a 100 point score. It still feels like a bit of a stretch and with an already poor ITD line, I’m very hesitant to prioritize Mitchell in any fashion.
I expect he will be contrarian though with Rakhmonov below him and Hooper above him, so if you’re additionally interested in the contrarian angle, I can understand that to a degree. I will mostly choose to roster others.
Gracie at 6.7k has upside in the sense that he can submit anyone in the world, and Mitchell has been subbed a couple of times already.
It wouldn’t be crazy to see Gracie get in a scramble early and lock up a neck, though that’s not a likely outcome either. He could have KD equity just because Mitchell is coming off a brutal KO loss, so who knows.
Otherwise, Gracie rates out terribly. He’s a massive dog and +600 to win ITD. Sure he could land takedowns but he probably won’t try, so we can’t project him for many.
The only saving grace here is that in that Jourdain fight, Gracie also landed a ton of strikes from his back. 139 to be exact. So he still scored 42 in a dominating loss, which is nuts.
I don’t think that helps too much in terms of win equity because if he’s landing strikes from his back, he’s probably losing the fight. However, it does help a tiny bit in terms of floor, and potentially makes him an intriguing candidate for floor/punt combination in this range as a pivot away from Garry.
I don’t hate the idea of sprinkling in Gracie for that reason at 6.7k, in case all these underdogs lose, and can survive a 15 minutes while landing a bunch of strikes in any position. It’s also not a great spot to load up on.
I’d love to see Gracie come in with a smart game plan, and really look like he’s excited to fight. He has skills to compete. But he’s aging and it’s tough to know how much he cares – that’s why the betting line has settled this wide and if you want to avoid him completely for those reasons I understand.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mitchell by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Nate Landwehr vs. Dooho Choi
Fight Odds: Landwehr -135, Choi +117
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Landwehr 8.4k, Choi 7.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger of a matchup here between the always entertaining Nate Landwehr and Dooho Choi.
Landwehr is a brawler who will come forward like a psychopath for 15 minutes and try to break opponents with his pace.
Landwehr lands 6.25 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.75 in return. He brings a high pace and likes to make it dirty on the feet. He breaks his opponents and has some power as well. He isn’t all that technical or skilled on the feet, but I do respect his path to victory on the feet as his pace is hard to deal with.
Landwehr sneakily has some really good wins too. He knocked out Jamall Emmers in his last matchup, defeated David Onama, and submitted Ludovit Klein. All three of those guys are quality fighters.
Landwehr’s style brings variance though. He has been knocked out twice and one of them was to Herbert Burns who Landwehr probably beats at least 80 percent of the time. Landwehr is just very aggressive and hittable so he can be put away. Even Darren Elkins landed 121 significant strikes on Landwehr. Dan Ige also knocked him down.
Landwehr also has some submission skills and is a decently capable grappler. He lands 1.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of opportunistic submissions. I more so think his grappling success comes when he tires opponents out though. In other words, I don’t think he will easily outgrapple capable grapplers who are fresh. He also has good TDD at 86 percent and is hard to hold down.
Landwehr will be taking on “The Korean SuperBoy” Dooho Choi who is coming off a knockout win against Bill Algeo. Choi is famous for his 2016 war against Cub Swanson where he lost a back and forth fight. I honestly think has been historically overrated as a fighter because of that fight.
Since then, Choi has had long breaks in between fights for mandatory military service, and has only competed four times. He was knocked out by Jeremy Stephens and Charles Jourdain. Choi then fought to a draw against Kyle Nelson in a back and forth strange fight. He then knocked out the previously mentioned Algeo in a back and forth fight until the finish materialized.
Choi is basically a boxer who has some decent straight punches and power in the pocket. I do respect his power and he has a very powerful right hand. I actually don’t think he is great other than that though.
He lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.49 in return which isn’t great. I simply think he is hittable on the feet and his durability is very suspect to me. In his last five fights, he was hurt badly by Swanson, knocked out by Stephens, knocked out by Jourdain, badly hurt by Nelson, and Algeo stung him as well. That is a suspect durability track record.
Choi isn’t a great grappler. He lands 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and only defends takedowns at 47 percent. I mean Kyle Nelson just took him down five times. Yes, Choi can defend wrestling a bit and float in top position. However, I don’t consider him a real talent on the mat.
I basically just expect Choi to be a guy who needs to win fun fights on the feet and is generally knockout reliant. That is really it. I do think he has some dangerous hands and power with his straight punches on the inside, but other than that I don’t rate him highly.
As far as this matchup goes, there is a lot of variance here. Both of these guys have been knocked down and knocked out several times. So either guy winning by knockout wouldn’t surprise me, and I can’t be super confident in the fight in general.
However, I do think I trust Landwehr’s durability and consistent offense a bit more. Landwehr has also just been beating better competition than Choi and Choi only has one win in eight years.
I tend to think both guys will land but Landwehr probably has a pace, slight durability, and submission grappling edge. I tend to think this will take place on the feet, but Landwehr has more submission wins on his record in general.
Look, Choi could hurt and knock Landwehr out. I wouldn’t be shocked. However, Landwehr could also do the same thing to Choi. Furthermore, Landwehr’s pace has allowed him to beat several good fighters who I consider superior to Choi. The pace of Landwehr may just drown Choi here too. So I just want to pick Landwehr here based on having more quality wins in recent memory and probably being a bit more trustworthy as a processed fighter.
—
On DraftKings, this is a pretty intriguing mid-range matchup that has a decent shot to end inside the distance.
That is where the majority of the scoring equity will come from – and there’s always bust risk in that sense. But the fight is -210 to end inside the distance and both fighters are capable of finishing fights, and getting finished.
Landwehr is priced at 8.4k, and I’m somewhat interested in him. I’m definitely a bit nervous to overextend myself here, partially because he could get hurt early, and partially because he’s more tied into pacing than quick KO power.
Still, Landwehr can punish guys, and he’s put up big DK scores because of it. He has wins of 115, 102, 104, 92 and 84, with the 104 and 84 scores coming in a decision. Landwehr is +145 to win ITD here which is good for the price.
There’s definitely some boom or bust elements in this matchup and using Landwehr as a secondary target is what makes the most sense, but for 8.4k, I think he’s a pretty strong mid-range mix in and a fighter I’d like exposure to for his finishing capabilities.
Choi is likely even more boom or bust at 7.8k, but may even have more early KO upside than Landwehr.
Landwehr has been knocked out in the UFC in 56 seconds, and in 2 minutes and 43 seconds. He’s been hurt a bunch on the regionals as well.
Choi fits best as someone who can snipe early, and so with that, he has early KO upside on paper. He’s actually +185 to win ITD which is quite strong for the price.
Given that he just won ITD and scored 93 points, I’m sure he’ll get some attention, but I still doubt he’ll be very chalky.
Again, I’m very hesitant to overextend here on Choi given the bust risk, and the still difficult matchup. But he does have pure upside and I think is worth mixing in at least. It wouldn’t be crazy to prioritize him outright over Landwehr though I wouldn’t lean too far in either direction personally.
Overall, I don’t mind being overweight to this matchup as we’ll need mid-range options, and this one has clear finishing equity. Both sides still do carry individual risk.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Landwehr by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith
Fight Odds: Reyes -337, Smith +269
Odds to Finish: -300
DraftKings Salaries: Reyes 9.1k, Smith 7.1k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a veteran matchup here between two former title contenders in Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith.
Reyes is famous for giving Jon Jones everything that Jones could handle back in 2020. Reyes then went on a really tough losing streak and was knocked out three straight times against Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Ryan Spann. All of those guys are either good or hit very hard, so it’s not an unforgivable losing streak, but it was concerning seeing Reyes getting knocked out over and over.
Obviously getting knocked out several times is a concern but I am not sure Reyes’ durability is awful or anything given his competition levels and who he was knocked out by, but it is something to keep an eye on. Reyes then bounced back with a knockout win of his own in his most recent matchup against Dustin Jacoby.
Reyes is a pretty decent striker with knockout power, and he has won by knockout several times. He lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.75 in return. I consider him a fine striker at this weight class with decent power and decent volume. He has a good straight left standing out of the southpaw stance.
Reyes doesn’t really wrestle offensively and only lands 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes. I do consider his TDD strong though and he defends takedowns at 80 percent.
Reyes will be taking on Anthony Smith. Smith is kind of a weird fighter. He is not the best round winner and his metrics are poor. However, he is a tough guy and has finishing capability on the feet and on the mat. I still don’t think he is very good though and never have. He also seems to be declining and can’t take a punch like he used to. I don’t really trust his durability at all now.
Smith is an okay striker but not a good one either. He lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.60 in return. He defends strikes at 46 percent. He has bad metrics, but I do think historically he is a little more skilled and dangerous on the feet than his metrics indicate. A lot of his strikes absorbed have been on the mat. Smith is moderately dangerous and an eight-limb threat. So he is capable of hurting opponents.
I still don’t fully trust Smith on the feet though, especially if his opponents are defensively sound. Like I said above as well, his durability seems to be declining and he just looks worse in general now.
Smith is actually a pretty dangerous submission grappler. He sneakily performs pretty well in BJJ tournaments, and he hasn’t been submitted in MMA for a long time. He is a tough guy to finish on the mat, and he is good at getting the back and locking up submissions. Four of his last six wins have actually come by submission.
The issue is that Smith is a terrible positional wrestler. He defends takedowns at 50 percent and can be controlled for entire rounds on the mat. Aleksandar Rakic obtained more than 12 minutes of control in a 15-minute fight vs Smith which is just awful. So Smith getting outwrestled is always on the table. His offensive wrestling is poor too and he only lands 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, I simply think Reyes has the defensive wrestling to keep this fight standing so we probably get a lot of stretches of striking where Reyes is a much better round winning striker. I also think there is a good chance Reyes can hurt and knock Smith out. Smith just looks bad lately man.
I do think Smith is moderately dangerous. Maybe he catches the chin of Reyes or maybe he gets a random submission in a chaotic sequence. Smith is dangerous enough to randomly finish Reyes and we have seen some cracks in Reyes’ armor on more than one occasion.
Still though, Reyes is probably more likely to finish Smith and Reyes is certainly the better round winner who can likely sprawl and brawl and outstrike Smith throughout. So I will go with Reyes to get the win here and I believe he is the rightful favorite.
—
On DraftKings, Reyes is going to be a classic boom or bust target at 9.1k.
Reyes is not likely to wrestle, and his striking volume won’t be enough to score optimally at 9.1k. He needs a knockout, and probably an early one.
The good news is that he’s -170 to win ITD which is very strong, and he’s coming off a huge 118 point score. The more difficult news is that Smith hasn’t been finished in round one since 2013.
He’s been hurt like a dozen times since though, and he’s been finished somewhat recently in round two and round three. But a 3rd round TKO loss to Rountree would have only scored in the mid 70s, and a 2nd round TKO loss to Ankalaev would have scored in the high 80s.
So it just makes things difficult. I don’t like Smiths’ game at all and he’s very beatable and breakable, so an early KO loss is definitely in play. Historically, he has been able to survive a bit and extend fights, and that just increases my fear of Reyes busting.
At 9.1k, Reyes will carry plenty of upside but he’ll have a very thin window to reach it. I don’t mind him as a secondary target but I won’t be too aggressive in this spot personally.
Smith at 7.1k has some viability as a boom or bust target, in a division filled with variance.
I don’t love him though. His game is just not very processed. It’s difficult to trust any real KO upside, and he doesn’t wrestle much. He’ll need an opportunistic moment or random damage to really pay off.
It’s not an impossible situation though, obviously, as Reyes has been knocked out in each of his last three losses. I don’t think Smith is as dangerous as some of those opponents, but he’s not dramatically far behind.
Smith is +400 to win ITD which isn’t great, but oh well, he’s very cheap and shouldn’t be owned much. For that reason, he’s a viable low-end target in tournaments for pure upside.
I still think the more likely outcome is an extended fight, with not a whole lot of offensive production from Smith, so I really don’t expect to end up with much exposure in a smaller portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reyes by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Vicente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo
Fight Odds: Gorimbo -159, Luque +137
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Gorimbo 8.6k, Luque 7.6k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Vicente Luque was a part of the TUF 21 season all the way back in 2015 and has put together a pretty solid resume over the years. However, despite only being 33, he does appear to be pretty shop worn at this point, having lost three of his last four – he’s 15-6 in the UFC and 22-10-1 as a pro. Themba Gorimbo bypassed the Contender Series back in 2023. After dropping his debut to AJ Fletcher, he’s since amassed a 4-fight win streak – he’s 14-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Luque’s a guy I’ve been a fan of over the years. I remember watching his season of TUF in 2015 and saying back then that he had a pretty solid ceiling in the UFC.
He’s had some stumbles along the way in losses but has also faced a lot of adversity in some of the fights that he’s won as well.
Touching on the high points first.
He lands 5.1 SLpM at 52% and 6.7 DLpM at 50% — very solid metrics especially against solid competition and a large sample size. Luque works a pressure-based boxing game and has also shown to be a proficient kicker, primarily low. His technique is fluid along with his combo boxing, everything is just tight and processed.
It’s that marauding type of style that has given issues to the large majority of his opponents. He’s also got power for the division, finishing eight of his UFC wins by KO.
Okay now the bad part.
He eats 5.2 SApM at 52% and 6.5 DApM at 55%.
Luque is a guy who defensively will try to keep a high guard and block punches on his arms but doesn’t utilize much head movement, and guys can often get off on their strikes because he will largely rely on his toughness or shelling. He also stands flat footed and doesn’t really try to evade strikes in terms of general footwork.
Despite his solid UFC record, he’s not just blowing guys out of the water minute to minute. And despite never being finished in the UFC prior to the Neal fight, he’d been hurt multiple times and his defense isn’t something that has improved.
Overall, I still do think Luque is an upper tier striker at 170 as he’s well-rounded, but his lack of defense and faltering durability is of bigger concern.
Gorimbo is one of those skinny/lankier 170’s, standing 6’1” tall with a 77” reach.
We don’t have vast amounts of tape for him and not a ton of time at distance – particularly in recent years so there is some more conjecture here. In what I’ve seen, he does well at range in terms of using his length but isn’t a high-volume guy traditionally.
At the same time, he doesn’t always look to fight exclusively at range and will crash the pocket. When doing so, his chin is straight up in the air with his head right on the center line.
As a result, I’ve seen him brutally KO’d and significantly hurt on another occasion inside of the pocket. These are fights from over four years ago though, so take that for what you will.
But despite slinging some leather at times, he hasn’t been a perennial KO artist, though he has dropped his last two of his last four opponents in Sato and Rodriguez.
He did better on the feet against Price in his last fight in the limited times it was there, outlanding him 43 to 11 at distance – Price is washed at this point though.
Overall, I still have questions on what his striking capabilities are in extended exchanges and against more competent fighters.
How it plays out: If this fight was happening 3-4 years ago, I’d be fairly confident in Luque on the feet. But with his durability seemingly starting to go, my confidence interval drops a decent amount. At the same time, Luque’s still a far more proven striker than Gorimbo who’s more technical and can also crack. Despite Luque’s recent performances not looking great, he’s really only been beaten on the feet by top 15 guys. I’m still of the stronger opinion that Gorimbo’s chin isn’t very good and he has a KO loss coming in the near future. We also haven’t seen Gorimbo in the fire all that often and that’s where Luque historically has excelled.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Luque is a quality BJJ black belt, but the issue is that he doesn’t wrestle much, only landing 1.0 TD per 15 minutes at 54% — a number that has doubled since his last fight with RDA where he landed eight TDs in what was an anomalous approach despite finding success.
His subs are usually coming from him hurting guys or opponents shooting shots on him. From there, he possesses a great front headlock series with d’arce/anaconda chokes.
He only has five sub wins in his 15 UFC W’s but make no mistake, he’s a dangerous guy.
He’s not immune to being taken down, stuffing at 62%, but it’s important to note that he hasn’t been aggressively wrestled much outside of his fight with Belal – wrestling ultimately beat him there.
To illustrate this, in 21 fights, only five opponents have attempted three or more TDs against him.
However, he’s dropped three of those fights when that was the case to Graves, Edwards and Muhammad – the control numbers are a tad misleading as the majority of that came against the cage but nonetheless, the grinding of a couple fights has beat him in the past – albeit we’re going back to 2017 and 2015 for reference for the first two but Muhammad exposed that chink in his armor again – Muhammad’s also the sitting champion though.
He fought a very solid MMA based wrestler against Chiesa as well where Chiesa was able to secure early, but succumbed to Luque’s choke game shortly after. He looked horrid when Buckley got on top of him in the 2nd round though.
In totality, most guys tend to avoid the ground with him because his BJJ is slick, but he can be outwrestled.
Given the frame of Gorimbo, he didn’t originally fit the mold of a ground fighter but the bulk of what we’ve seen of Gorimbo has been on the ground, for or against.
Offensively, he will look to wrestle, and he was able to have extensive success in his last regional outing controlling his opponent for nearly the entire 15 minutes. However, I don’t really like his entries as they aren’t set up by strikes and he tends to shoot from pretty far out.
Eight of his 14 pro wins do come on the ground via finish though – six submissions, one via elbows and another with added GNP after dropping Rodriguez. But the bulk of them came in the early part of his career where I wasn’t able to view many of them.
The only submission I saw was a highlight video where he was taken down and secured a triangle from the bottom. On the other one, he was able to reverse position to get on top and reign down. He has grinded out Sato, Brahimaj and Price more recently in the UFC.
Defensively, it hasn’t been great.
He’s been submitted twice and held down for the full 15-minute duration in his last loss in UAE Warriors. He was able to create space at a few points but couldn’t threaten anything and never stood up.
I also saw him get held against the fence for the entire 1st round in his 2nd to last loss against Mazany.
Against Fletcher, both guys had success, but Fletcher was able to mount him the 1st and he stuck his neck into a guillotine in the 2nd.
He ultimately got the better of the ground against Sato, landing three TDs and racking up 11 minutes of control although he conceded some ground time as well and lost positions a few times.
Similar to the striking, I have questions with him on the ground because his performances have been all over the board, but wrestling has been a positive for him thus far in the UFC.
How it plays out: The ground’s a bit interesting as there’s some polar dynamics. Given Gorimbo and Luque wrestling historics, Gorimbo may very well be able to implement what he’s done thus far in the UFC and just grind Luque out over the course of 15 minutes – very plausible. On the flip side though, Luque is a far superior submission grappler and Gorimbo’s been subbed with front chokes in both of his pro submission losses which is Luque’s specialty. So Gorimbo’s going to have to mind his Ps and Qs if he’s looking to take a wrestling heavy approach. On top of that, despite Luque being untrustworthy to wrestle, I still don’t like Gorimbo on the bottom so it’s something to consider if Luque does get on top.
Solid booking from the UFC matchmakers as Luque will be Gorimbo’s litmus test to determine if he belongs in the top 15 of this division. It goes without saying that Gorimbo has looked good recently and Luque is declining so it’s a classic “escalator” matchup. It’s now more so determining to what level has Luque declined. Because as noted, if this fight was 3-4 years ago, I’d be relatively confident in Luque, but this fight is happening in 2024. I’m going to say that Luque has enough in the tank though and pulls out the sight upset.
—
On DraftKings, I’m guessing Gorimbo could be very chalky given the elite scoring performances he’s put up in recent bouts.
He’s an aggressive wrestler, which is the best style to score, and he’s put up wins of 123, 109, 130 and 114, and three of those came in decisions.
Now at 8.6k, against an opponent in Luque who was just pounded out from top position, Gorimbo is easy to pay for and has a clear path to another optimal score.
I really like Gorimbo – but my issue is that he’s climbing the division very quickly and his game still isn’t fully polished. Luke touched on a lot of the concerns but for example, Gorimbo is a work-in-progress at best on the feet, and his defensive wrestling and BJJ are limited as well.
Luque on paper has the tools to beat him. Luque is a more technical and dangerous striker, and the superior submission grappler.
Luque is also on the decline and it’s really difficult to watch his last fight against Buckley, where Luque shot a takedown in round two, failed to get it, and then basically just quit. If Gorimbo is going to pressure him and wrestle, which I expect, we could very well see a similar outcome.
I simply don’t have faith in Luque at this stage though I think Gorimbo is likely being overrated in general.
At 8.6k, Gorimbo is going to rate out well and I will probably have moderate exposure to him based on his style. He’s only +400 to win ITD, but he’s scored 100+ in a few of his decision wins so that’s not a major drawback.
You could realistically choose to come under the field just based on level of competition, hoping Luque can neutralize Gorimbo more than Gorimbo’s recent opponents. In a close, extended fight, I could see Gorimbo underperforming. And there are 14 total fights on this slate which leaves room for pivots.
Pivoting away from Gorimbo based on his chalk and step up in matchup is very viable, and one place I will look to be unique. I also do like the style of Gorimbo as it relates to scoring, and would feel uncomfortable being severely underweight.
Luque at 7.6k is a good tournament target in what should be a strong mid-7k range.
I do like others in this range, and so ownership should be spread out publicly as well. There’s honestly a decent chance Luque is quite low owned, coming off three losses in his last four fights. He’s pretty boom or bust as well, and will likely need a finish to contend for the optimal.
Luque has multiple paths to the finish though, both in his profile and as it relates to Gorimbo’s weaknesses. He could hurt Gorimbo or choke him out. He’s actually
+190 to win ITD which is far superior to Gorimbo’s line.
Given the additional leverage you’ll get on Luque, I don’t mind him as a secondary target at this price. It’s going to be difficult to make a huge investment and I would like to spread out my exposure, but Luque at least carries upside and clear leverage, which makes him useful in tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gorimbo by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling
Fight Odds: Evloev -242, Sterling +202
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Evloev 8.9k, Sterling 7.3k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
My most anticipated fight on the card, we have a truly elite matchup here between former UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling, and rising contender and undefeated Russian Movsar Evloev.
Sterling is coming off a dominant decision win against Calvin Kattar at UFC 300. We bet Sterling there and he dominated, and I now consider Sterling one of the Technical Tim Hall of Famers, as a fighter that we have had success backing many times.
I was impressed with Sterling in that Kattar fight. It was Sterling’s featherweight debut and he filled in nicely physically to the weight class. He was a huge bantamweight and he honestly looks like a decent sized featherweight as well. He also had that bantamweight speed as well. I think Featherweight is a good weight class for him.
He landed eight takedowns against Kattar, obtained 10:43 of control time and even outlanded Kattar 23-7 at distance. It was a dominating performance.
Sterling is a fantastic fighter, and I have always been a fan of his style. He just has incredible metrics, is well-rounded, and has elite areas of his game.
Sterling is well-known for his grappling. He lands 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and is one of the best backtakers in the world. He just does an incredible job of taking the back, putting a body triangle in, and either submitting or controlling his opponents. He has done this to world class fighters including Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. He is just such a dangerous submission grappler, and I think he can have success with grappling against almost anyone.
I also think Sterling’s pure takedowns are underrated. He is diverse and tricky. He can shoot doubles, clinch you against the cage, shoot singles and run the pipe. This guy literally outwrestled Henry Cejudo as well who is a former Olympic gold medalist. His wrestling is super underrated imo. He is also very tenacious and is capable of attempting double digit takedowns.
Furthermore, I think Sterling is an underrated defensive wrestler. His TDD rate is 45 percent and I am sure that will be thrown out a lot this week but I think that is an extremely skewed number. In his last nine fights, he only conceded takedowns to Petr Yan (in their first fight) and Henry Cejudo. He conceded seven takedowns to Yan (who is a very underrated wrestler btw) but was barely controlled. Furthermore, Sterling was hurt and gassed when getting taken down vs Yan later in the fight. I don’t think that first fight vs. Yan is representative of Sterling’s TDD skills. Cejudo landed 3/8 takedowns against Sterling and is an elite wrestler. Cejudo also barely obtained control.
Furthermore, Sterling has been having showcase pure wrestling matches lately against D1 champions and has literally beat or almost beat them in pure wrestling matches, which has been shocking to some in the wrestling world. He also recently grappled vs Mike Grundy and did not surrender a single takedown. I do think Sterling can get taken down by great MMA level wrestlers, but I don’t think it will be easy and I don’t think anyone will control Sterling for long periods of time.
Sterling is also a fine striker. He lands 4.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.30 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent. He isn’t all that dangerous with power and he is a bit unorthodox. However, he is such a good neutralizer. He stays out of range and keeps his opponents at the end of his kicks. He will also clinch opponents up and hold them against the cage. He is basically all the way in or all the way out so he is extremely difficult to hit.
He has been knocked out in the UFC. However, I generally consider him a tough guy to even land on and his durability generally seems fine. I mentioned how I thought he could strike with Kattar just fine and he did. He outlanded Kattar 23-7 at range. Sterling also generally outlands all of his opponents at distance, especially to the head. He took a striking round vs Sean O’Malley as well, and I consider Sterling an underrated striker.
I just like Sterling’s process of fighting. He always has the X factor of grappling upside and is good enough on the feet and in the clinch to compete with anyone. He is also just good defensively, so he is a great round winner. His round winning ratio in his career is truly elite. He wins over 90 percent of his completed rounds.
Sterling will be taking on rising contender and 18-0 undefeated Russian Movsar Evloev who is coming off a hard fought win against Arnold Allen. I have always liked Movsar Evloev’s game a lot, and I am excited to see him back in the cage this weekend. Evloev is simply a good fighter. He is very well-rounded with no major holes in his game.
Evloev is a solid fundamental striker with good boxing and a functional jab. He lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.89 in return. He is also defensively sound and defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. He doesn’t have the best power, but overall I think he is good on the feet. He also has good cardio and can fight a hard striking pace for 15 minutes.
I still think a lot of Evloev’s striking success has come against weak competition. He was doubled up at range by Hakeem Dawodu and he doesn’t exactly dominate on the feet in general except against terrible strikers like Mike Grundy. I also question his defense against range kickers. Evloev is always landing in punching range, but I tend to think good kickers, a type of fighter he has never really faced, can stick and move against him. It is theoretical by me but I do think we will find out against Sterling this weekend.
Evloev is also a good wrestler and can keep up a wrestling pace for 15 minutes. He lands 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts around nine takedowns per fight. He is fantastic at chaining together takedown attempts and is usually aggressively and tenaciously pursuing them. He isn’t a great submission grappler but he is good at mat returning and riding the back. I do question his ability to control elite wrestlers though. I mean he was only able to control Barzola for 2:12 on 11 takedown attempts. I more so think Evloev will feast on grapplers who are not good.
Evloev also is a pretty good defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at a decent 71 percent and can generally scramble up well. I still think he is a bit untested defensively as a wrestler though. He hasn’t fought a real good grappler yet. He really has only faced a few grapplers in Mike Grundy, Nik Lentz, and Enrique Barzola who are not necessarily well-rounded grapplers.
For example, Grundy has a good double leg but no real top control. Lentz doesn’t have good takedowns or control, just a decent guillotine. Barzola is a mid takedown artist and doesn’t have a good top game. None of them are Aljo. No one besides those three in the UFC has even attempted a takedown against Evloev.
Those three guys aren’t even that good of wrestlers or grapplers either and all of them had some level of success against Evloev. Grundy took Evloev down six times and basically couldn’t land takedowns anymore because he tired out, and doesn’t know how to control people on the mat. Grundy almost submitted Evloev too. Lentz also had Evloev in a mounted guillotine. The most concerning sequence I saw was Barzola taking Evloev down at the end of round two, getting a leg lace, and controlling Evloev for the rest of the round.
We haven’t seen Evloev dominated on the mat or anything. However, we have objectively seen a few chinks in his armor throughout the only three fights where takedowns were attempted against him. Now Evloev is going against Aljo who has elite back taking and is a WAY better pure grappler than all three of those guys.
I think most people analyzing this fight this week will basically say Evloev will stop the takedowns of Aljo because Evloev is a good wrestler, etc. I am just not so sure about that. I truly think Aljo could clinch Evloev up, take him down, get the back, threaten with submissions. It may not result in 14-15 minutes of control for Aljo, but would 5-6 minutes of control for Aljo surprise me? Not even a little bit. Aljo literally controlled Petr Yan, who I consider a better defensive wrestler than Evloev, for 10 straight minutes. So I think this line is off for the grappling upside of Aljo alone.
I do think Evloev can land takedowns here too though. He has a good takedown game. However, I really don’t think he can do a thing to Aljo on the mat. Evloev may clasp his hands and ride Aljo for a second, but that is about it to me and I think Aljo has WAY more control and submission upside here.
Also, I think Aljo can compete on the feet perfectly fine here too. I think people see Aljo getting knocked out by O’Malley and just assume his striking is bad. However, as mentioned above, I think Aljo is an underrated striker who is great defensively and can keep people on the end of his kicks. Evloev has never even landed a knockdown in 24 UFC rounds either.
I basically think the striking is competitive. Evloev is likely a better boxer, but Aljo is surely a better kicker. I sneakily think Aljo will be a bit better as a round winner on the feet. I just think a lot of neutralization will occur on the feet as Aljo did to Kattar. Sure, Evloev could maybe have some success with his straight punches but I think Aljo can land a bit more consistently with his kicks. Also Evloev almost exclusively targets the head and Aljo is extremely hard to land consistently to the head.
Look, I am not sure Aljo will dominate here or anything. These guys are reasonably well matched in the striking and the grappling. Both guys can fight everywhere. However, I really think this line is off and stylistically, this is a sneaky tough fight for Evloev. Maybe Evloev is just able to stuff the grappling of Sterling, beat him up on the feet, and land several takedowns. However, that honestly seems optimistic to me and I really think Aljo can win this weekend. Aljo is my pick straight, regardless of the betting odds.
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On DraftKings, I do have interest in this matchup due to the potential for grappling exchanges, and I’d also consider it one of the highest level fights on the entire slate.
I love Movsar Evloev. He’s been one of my favorite fighters to back since he entered the UFC, and he’s come through every single time. He is very well-rounded, a great pace wrestler, and he will never quit.
I’ve also had success backing Aljo as well, and I bet him multiple times as a huge dog against Petr Yan. I really wish I didn’t have to root against anyone here.
This has also been a fight that’s been on my radar for months, largely because Tim has been pelting me with analysis, and he thinks Aljo is the deserved favorite outright.
I’m less confident than him that Aljo will win the wrestling exchanges, but I do think he has a path to takedowns and back takes. He’s not the best control wrestler outside of the back, which is my concern, and Evloev will scramble out of horrible positions if necessary, so I trust him to stay alive.
I also think Evloev can land his own takedowns, but I don’t foresee him having much or any success with control. Honestly, this fight could very well come down to the striking, and in that sense, lining it competitively overall as opposed to Evloev as a wide favorite makes more sense.
Evloev is priced up to 8.9k, and I think I’d lean closer to fading him on this slate. I’m probably going to take some heavier stands than normal, and this may be one of them.
Again, I love Evloev, and Evloev definitely could land 4-5 takedowns en route to a win, but he has very minimal finishing equity. He’s +350 to win ITD which isn’t strong, and he’s not really been a submission or KO threat in past fights against worse competition.
I also am not convinced he can have any real control with those takedowns, nor am I convinced he even wants to wrestle as much here as in past fights. He may want to box.
At 8.9k, Evloev is still going to rate out OK and he has tons of upside within his style. He’s scored 86, 120, 130, 138, 92, 66, 84 and 110 in his decisions. Some of those numbers are huge.
They all come with 4-9 takedowns though, plus tons of control, plus tons of ground strikes. There is a much more reasonable chance that those outputs are neutralized in this specific matchup, and therefore, Evloev’s ceiling could be severely limited.
I do think I would still consider Evloev as a secondary target, only due to his wrestling profile and past upside. I would be nervous to say you have to fade the guy outright and I still really love his game overall.
But I don’t have a great feeling about him being in full control and dominating Aljo on the mat and especially if he’s going to gain any public attention for his box scores, I’d rather be underweight to the public this week.
Sterling at 7.3k is definitely on my radar, and I’ll likely target him more than the public this week.
I am not extremely confident he wins, but I do think the fight could play out competitively, and I respect Tim’s eye for grappling a lot as well. Most of the fighters priced below Aljo feel like dart throws, whereas Aljo I feel has legitimate win equity.
And of course, a win for Aljo could come via wrestling and control. I don’t think he has a great chance to dominate from bell to bell, but Evloev has been taken down enough times by weaker wrestlers that I do think Aljo could reasonably land 3-5 over 15 minutes.
Aljo is only +625 to win ITD but I don’t see why his finishing prop would be much worse than Evloevs, as he is the better sub grappler outright. Either way, his most recent three-round decision wins have scored 115, 100, 81 and 94, so there’s still plenty of upside at 7.3k.
There are enough live dogs on this slate for me to not jam in 100% of Aljo, and still, this fight could very well be competitive and a close decision. There are ways for him to lose and underperform.
Aljo does feel like a value at 7.3k, and with his wrestling upside, I’m probably going to attack it a bit more than the field this week. He’s one of my favorite cheap options on the card.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sterling by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle
Fight Odds: Battle -214, Brown +181
Odds to Finish: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Battle 8.7k, Brown 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Randy Brown’s rounding out his 9th year on the active roster and starting to get up there a bit in age at 34 years old. But he’s established himself as a fringe top 15 guy at the weight class and has put together a solid run over the years – he’s 13-5 in the UFC and 19-5 as a pro. Bryan Battle won the 29th season of TUF at 185 lbs back in 2022 but later that year, moved down to 170 where he’s been on an absolute tear – he’s 6-1 in the UFC and 11-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Brown’s a ridiculously long guy for the division standing 6’3” with a 78” reach. In that, he tends to fight long and from the outside using a lot of lateral movement.
He’s shown to be higher output as well, landing 4.4 SLpM at 47% and 5.9 DLpM at 41%. He’s got a good jab but can’t always fight behind it consistently, but he does kick well and utilizes good clinch knees and general body work.
Brown can find himself in competitive fights but has fought some tough guys in there to boot, and still has a positive distance differential of +1.4/minute. Outside of his jab, his right cross is really his best weapon where he posseses some sneaky power with five UFC knockdowns, and he has hurt opponents in other fights as well.
Defensively, he eats 3.2 SApM at 54% and 4.5 DApM at 58% which is slightly below the divisional average, which proves some credence to the point referenced above that he can’t always fight behind his jab effectively.
He’ll move well on the outside and can slip punches, but it’s been effective pressure that he has struggled with throughout his UFC career. Brown has also been susceptible to leg kicks in the past and his durability has come into question as well – he got KO’d with massive hammer fists from Price on bottom and ate a big knee from Luque.
He was hurt twice by Williams and dropped against Maddalena – in his defense, all four of those guys are known perennial power threats.
Overall, Brown is a talented striker with length, speed, power, and good pacing but he has some flakey tendencies at times to give minutes and exchanges away.
Battle is a pretty long guy with a 77” reach, and he’s a good striker.
I would say his main core competency is that he mixes it up well between straight punches, hooks, knees, elbows and kicks. He only has four pro wins via KO/TKO but has iced guys in three of his last four wins.
I originally thought he was overrated as a power striker, but it seems the move down to 170 has translated much better for him in that department. He also does a good job of staying active throughout the course of his fights and keeps a higher pace – his pace has been a bit slower in some recent fights though.
He’s also one of those guys that has shown he can be effective from the outside with his volume.
Defensively, he’s not great but has shown components of keeping a higher guard and rolling with punches. But overall, I’d say he relies on his toughness more than anything in which his durability has held up. He’s never been finished via strikes as a pro, however, he was hurt in his fight with Gore, got dropped by Fakhretdinov and was hurt by Fletcher more recently despite recovering in all three outings.
I don’t think the guy is Lance Armstrong, but his cardio has shown to be a sound component of him winning his fights as guys will slow down/make mistakes and Battle will outlast them.
Overall, I don’t think Battle’s the greatest athlete in the world but he’s a tough guy with no quit and a good work rate (in a vacuum) who can fight in all three ranges standing.
How it plays out: Brown will realize a slight length advantage but nothing too significant. Battle will probably be the guy taking the center here with Brown looking to fight from the outside. We’ve seen Brown deal well with pressure at times but other times not so much. Both have their own defensive issues as well. But I project Battle to be winning in the optical category, landing a higher volume of strikes and possessing more KO upside. I’d also trust Battle more in terms of winning a 3rd round. With that being said, Brown will be the best striker that Battle has fought to date which can’t be ignored.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Brown is a BJJ brown belt with okay wrestling when he goes to it. However, his metrics are underwhelming, landing 0.7 TDs per 15 minutes at 39%.
So, he’s been able to mix in his wrestling into a handful of fights, but his success has been somewhat limited and you can’t bank on a heavy wrestling attack from him.
Despite repping a 70% TDD mark, he’s actually struggled on his back at times and can get stuck there. But if he’s able to guard up, he does have those long legs to threaten triangles and arm bars from bottom.
This was on display in his fight against Alves where he was able to submit him – a BJJ black belt. He club and subbed Oliveira as well but was on the end of a club and sub against JDM.
His control ratios are slightly negative though at -10% as he can give away minutes on bottom in certain fights. Overall, I’d say the ground is up and down for Brown, but he is a competent wrestler/grappler.
I’m unsure of Battle’s wrestling/grappling credentials but he’s been up and down in this capacity.
He’s got five wins via submissions (if you include his TUF fight w/ Petroski).
Battle seems solid when he’s been able to get into top position and threaten chokes, but he’s primarily looking to keep his fights standing as guys are usually the ones shooting on him.
I’m still not 100% sure what to make of him as an offensive grappler but he’s now got submission wins over three brown belts which is impressive. If I had to put a semi stamp on it, I would classify him as a more of an opportunistic grappler who’s good transitionally, though you can’t really bank on Battle to come out and shoot 10 TDs though.
He did get guard sub armbarred pretty quickly back on the regionals and Petroski did get his back in the 2nd round on TUF, but Battle was able to reverse position as secure a sub of his own – Urbina did mount him briefly and Gore was able to threaten a standing ninja choke.
He also got run into the ground by Fakhretdinov, getting controlled for nearly the entire fight.
It is forgivable though as Fakhretdinov is a good wrestler and Battle had many pre-fight struggles – he was nursing a lower body injury and was sick during fight week getting hospitalized – hindsight, kind of crazy how he was cleared to fight.
But outside of that fight, he’s shown a good get up game and defensive responsibility on the ground to avoid submissions, despite not having very good TDD.
How it plays out: The ground’s a bit tricky to analyze as both aren’t conventionally high-volume wrestlers but do mix it in. Given the matchup dynamic, I’d lean to Battle of the two to potentially pursue some more but he’s also only getting his TDs at 23%. His TDD is worse than Brown’s, but I’d also trust Battle to scramble better if put on his back in comparison to Brown. In theory, both have submission upside but it’s hard to project.
Good scrap and another logical step up for Battle from the opponents he’s been fighting and dispatching of. On paper, I think this could be a competitive scrap, but Battle’s got that aura and confidence about him right now and I think his pressure is going to give bigger issues to Brown, so Battle will be my pick to win.
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On DraftKings, this is an interesting matchup that should draw attention.
Battle is one of the hotter prospects right now and Brown is a clear step up in competition for him. I’ve seen a lot of love for Brown as an underdog bet, but I also expect many to continue to chase Battle’s upside.
Battle is priced at 8.7k and he continues to crush on DK. He has recent wins of 119, 103 and 126 and 128. With that said, all four have come ITD and the latter two wins came in less than one minute. In his only decision win, Battle scored 87.
He’s a potent offensive fighter overall, but without a consistent wrestling game, Battle is going to continue to need finishes to reach a ceiling and contend for the optimal. He is +110 to win ITD in this matchup again, which is a good line.
I’m honestly open to playing him. I don’t mind Brown, but Brown has been brutally finished in each of his past three losses. Battle is just a very effective fighter, who poses a threat on the feet and on the mat. I definitely think he could get to Brown and find a finish somewhere along the way.
The chalkier Battle is, the less excited I will be to play him or match the field though. With Gorimbo nearby, as well as Pantoja and Rakhmonov, it’s quite possible Battle isn’t fully chalk this week. He should still draw plenty of attention for his box score and metrics.
Overall I’d say Battle is a decent secondary target for upside. He’s not an outright priority for me but I expect to build more in the mid-range this week, and 8.7k is pretty easy to afford. I doubt I’ll be above the field but I’ll use a handful of Battle for his finishing equity and when I need salary relief.
Brown at 7.5k could be popular-ish for salary savings.
He’s not a lock by any means, but he’s won seven of his past eight fights and has some decent scores in there like 105 and 110 in early finishes. More often though, Brown is winning decisions and scoring 67, 73, 71, 70, and 77.
I do think Brown could beat Battle, but finishing him seems pretty difficult. Battle is super tough and well-rounded enough to the point I would expect him to survive. Brown is only +375 to win ITD which is nothing special.
I don’t hate Brown as I could see rounds being competitive, and Brown could even end up winning a decision, but I’m much less confident in his DK ceiling. I don’t mind a sprinkle of him at 7.5k for the salary relief, but I’m also not really looking to invest against Battle either.
I’ll largely prefer to target better ceilings elsewhere throughout the slate, though I don’t mind paying down to Brown as a low-end secondary target for some win equity when needed.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Battle by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Fight Odds: Weidman -116, Anders +101
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Anders 8.2k, Weidman 8k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Future Hall-of-Famer Chris Weidman will step into the Octagon again on Saturday against Eryk Anders.
It’s been a few years since we saw Chris Weidman suffer a devastating leg injury against Uriah Hall. Weidman threw a hard leg kick on the first strike of the fight, Hall checked it, and Weidman’s leg snapped in half. It was awful to see that happen to Weidman.
Since that fight, Weidman has made a comeback and has had two fights. He lost a sloppy decision to Brad Tavares where he was outstruck and failed to land takedowns on Tavares. He then won a controversial fight against Bruno Silva where he committed a ton of fouls. Weidman still probably would have won that fight though and actually had a promising performance. He outstruck Silva 75-30 in significant strikes, hurt him, and had mild wrestling success.
It is still clear Weidman is past his prime, but he still showed against Silva that he has some life. Weidman is a good wrestler historically. He lands 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, and is a skilled wrestler and submission grappler in general. He can chain takedowns together, and I do respect his grappling in general. He also has a decent submission grappling game and has won by guillotine, D’Arce, and arm triangle in the UFC.
Weidman isn’t the best striker. He lands 3.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. He wasn’t awful as a striker in his prime. However, he had kind of looked like a liability on the feet later in his career and was knocked out by Jacare and Reyes. I do think he has some sneaky boxing at times though. He can pressure people in boxing range and have success which he showed against Silva. It is not the prettiest thing in the world but it can be effective.
Look, Weidman was a capable and skilled grappler in his prime. He is definitely not what he was though. It looks like he can still grapple and strike to a degree. He also has decent cardio. So my guess is for now, he can probably just have competitive fights against low to mid tier competition.
Weidman will be taking on Eryk Anders. Anders is kind of a freestyle fighter who will strike a bit and occasionally look to land takedowns. Anders doesn’t always land a ton of offense which is why I am not high on him in general, but he is decent and is a physically strong dude.
Anders lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.17 in return. He defends strikes at 50 percent. Those are pretty bad metrics and I don’t consider Anders a very good striker. He is basically limited to his left hand. He is a tough and physical guy though so he can stay competitive in fights. He also has some power in his left hand and can hurt opponents. So he can kind of keep fights competitive on the feet and has a power threat.
However, he isn’t a guy who is going to win clean rounds either. He has also been knocked down in his last two fights against somewhat poor competition, so his chin is a bit of a concern.
Anders lands 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6 takedowns per fight. I don’t consider him to be a great offensive wrestler but he is capable. I actually think he has a decent top game as he can use his physicality to stifle submissions and land ground and pound.
Anders is actually a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at a solid 79 percent and is generally hard to hold down on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I am actually pretty torn here. On the feet, it may come as a surprise but I may like Weidman more as a round winner. Anders is just hittable and I feel like Weidman has recently looked like the more aggressive striker. This is still sloppy on the feet though, and baked with a ton of variance. Either one of these guys could probably knock the other out at any point. Both have a little bit of power and both of their chins look sketchy.
As a wrestler, I favor Weidman slightly as well. I don’t think Weidman will easily take or hold Anders down. However, if he landed a takedown or two with some control, I wouldn’t be surprised. Anders could probably land takedowns as well but I doubt he can hold Weidman down or do much.
I feel like I am leaning Weidman slightly because I feel like he is a little more likely to be aggressive in general. I think he is more likely to attempt strikes and land takedowns. I feel like for Anders to win clean, he will probably have to knock Weidman out or consistently hurt him. That very well may happen. Weidman is surely an old fighter with a ton of wear and tear.
However, if that power doesn’t show up for Anders, where will Anders’ offense come from to win a clean decision? Is he going to land a ton of strikes or have a ton of wrestling success? Probably not. This is also in Weidman’s hometown and the crowd will be going crazy for him.
So I am going to pick Weidman here. I think he can generally stay competitive in all areas and the hometown crown could really help him on the cards. This is a sloppy one though, and it is tough to trust Weidman at this point of his career or to trust Anders ever.
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On DraftKings, we get a healthy dose of PTSD after Weidman vs. Anders was cancelled 60 seconds after the slate locked at UFC 309.
It’s also odd to me that Weidman was the value side there at 7.7k, and he was closing as a pick’em. The fight was since re-priced but Anders is still 8.2k, and Weidman now 8k, though Weidman is also now a favorite on most books.
I’ll also note that Weidman was 21 percent owned on that slate, and Anders was 15.21 percent owned. Since we have a 14-fight card this time, and the DK line value is largely eliminated, there’s a real chance neither fighter is owned above 20 percent. Plus, many who rostered them are probably burned by the situation.
Either way, I expect this to be a contrarian mid-range matchup.
I don’t love the fantasy ceiling for Weidman, but it’s not non-existent either. Anders was knocked down by Jamie Pickett in his last fight which is about as bad as it gets, and he’s been very inconsistent over the years. Weidman also is the better submission grappler with some wrestling equity.
Weidman is only +400 to win ITD, which isn’t great, and he isn’t going to project well. For a contrarian target, I still think he’s viable as he at least has multiple paths to score. I probably won’t end up with much exposure.
Anders should be even lower owned than Weidman again, and the real upside in my mind is if Anders can knock Weidman out.
Anders is actually +315 to win ITD which is better than Weidman’s number, but it doesn’t show a whole lot of upside. Weidman has been hurt a bunch in his career and could easily retire after Saturday though, so t’s not the worst spot to invest in a potential KO.
Anders did just score 94 points in his last decision win too, but that came with five takedowns, and I highly doubt he can repeat that kind of performance here. It’s possible he could mix in a couple of takedowns but I don’t think he can get much work done with them.
Anders just isn’t a great fighter. He’s not consistent. He’s not extremely dangerous anywhere.
If you want to sprinkle in either side for the purposes of being unique, there’s at least still some path to a ceiling. But there’s significant risk on multiple levels and I still wouldn’t aim to be drastically above the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Weidman by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yan by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
Fight Odds: Van -156, Durden +135
Odds to Finish: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Van 8.5k, Durden 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
I love to watch Joshua Van fight and he’s growing into one of my favorite prospects to come into the promotion in recent years.
He’s 11-2 professionally with six wins by knockout and two by submission, and he’s only 23 years old.
Despite earning eight of his 11 wins ITD, he’s also built to win rounds, and he’s landed an incredible 8.39 sig. strikes per minute throughout five UFC bouts. In that, he’s won four of five, and has topped out at 156, 120 and 118 sig. strikes.
Besides that, what I love about Van is that he builds. He does tend to start a bit slow (which I don’t love), but you can count on him to pick up the pace and start to swarm guys late. He also attacks all levels, and I absolutely love when he’s pressing his opponent backward, he’ll back them into the cage and start ripping combinations. It’s why he’s ultimately won a bunch of fights by TKO, because he can break opponents.
The downside I think is mostly tied into his relative inexperience at age 23. He’s good but not perfect. He’s absorbing a high rate of strikes too at 6.09 per minute, though his defense is fine at 58%.
He was actually knocked out two fights ago by Charles Johnson, though Johnson is very good but not necessarily known for power.
Van was also outgrappled on the regional scene, and he’s been tested only a bit in the UFC. He has mostly passed those tests though, absorbing three total takedowns with an 83% defensive rate. He looks to be improving.
He can even wrestle offensively himself, and averages 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Overall, Van is still green, and he’s going to get in trouble defensively at times, including early in fights. But I think his style is going to continue to be successful overall, he’s still improving, and he’s hella fun to watch.
Durden on the other hand, is not one of my favorites. He’s fine, but not great in any one area and he doesn’t always fight smart, or say the smartest things.
His biggest strength is his pace wrestling. He averages 4.35 takedowns per 15 minutes which is great, and he actually beat Charles Johnson by landing 11 and earning 9.5 minutes of control.
He’s a decent, opportunistic submission grappler who will chase necks, and he’s coming off a pretty nice guillotine win over Matt Schnell in September. With that said, he has attempted one takedown in his last 23 minutes of cage time. I was worried about him doing this heading in, but he wanted to get a highlight reel KO against Schnell, and the problem is he’s not very good standing, so Schnell actually out struck him in the first.
Durden isn’t a terrible striker though. He is aggressive, and willing to exchange. He looks to pack some power. It has only translated into one KD in 11 UFC bouts though.
Furthermore, he only lands 3.35 sig. strikes per minute in total, and his defense is 50%. I think if he only chose to strike, his rate would be better and he could maybe land 85 sig. strikes over 15 minutes. His career high is 60.
Durden has also been knocked down three times, including in two of his past three fights, and that doesn’t include getting hit a ton by Schnell. He’s just not the guy you want to rely on in striking exchanges longterm.
This sets up as a great fight because Van will likely do what he does, strike at a pretty high pace and build over three rounds. There’s nothing to suggest to me Durden can keep up with his pace, so as the fight progresses, I think there’s a pretty good chance of Van taking over and beating the crap out of Durden. I definitely think a mid-round TKO is viable.
On the other hand, Durden will throw back. He could potentially hurt Van just given variance of exchanges, and I think the early rounds could be competitive since Van starts slow.
I also think Durden is live to outwrestle Van, and that’s the more obvious and more likely version of how he wins. Of course he could land a takedown or two, that seems like something we should project, and with that, he could earn mild control.
I just don’t see that being enough to offset what happens in striking exchanges. Van will scramble up so Durden is going to have to jump on his neck or let him. A submission for Durden is definitely possible too.
Also, Durden’s best chance is probably just to wrestle the hell out of Van. I am highly skeptical he can do it successfully, but he attempted 18 takedowns against Johnson, so he’s clearly capable of trying.
If he can push Van early and hang on him, he could slow Van too and maybe just find out he’s a better wrestler than what Van is capable of beating right now.
I’m going to take Van though. I expect Durden to put up a fight early and maybe that’s enough to carry him to a win, but I’m more confident in Van’s longterm success in striking fights, and I like his pacing and damage potential a lot more.
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On DraftKings, there is plenty of risk in this fight but it’s still a very viable target due to pacing and dynamic.
Van is priced at 8.5k, and he’ll always carry risk as a base striker. He’s typically the type I do not like to roster, as he’s a bit more likely to extend the fight, and his grappling equity is minimal. Without a crazy finish, he’s probably not optimal.
However, his pacing has been SO good that it hasn’t really mattered yet. In wins, he has scores of 113, 135, 106 and 80. Two of those big ones actually came in decisions where he landed tons of strikes and mixed in a couple of takedowns, with lots of non-sig. strikes too.
The 80 is still an important note though, as he failed to get the latter criteria and only landed 120 sig. strikes. Great pacing, but not enough and it’s a real path to busting in any of his fights.
In this particular matchup, Van is +135 to win ITD which is good, and I don’t really trust Durden’s durability. I acknowledge the risk but I’m willing to play Van anyways due to the pacing and KO upside, even if as just a standard secondary/mix-in.
Most will prioritize the upper 8k-9k range, and even nearby we have Gorimbo, Battle and Landwehr who will all draw some attention away from Van. I don’t think he’ll be ultra chalk and is a very solid boom/bust type option who benefits from pacing.
Durden at 7.7k is someone I have been fading recently, and I do think it’s fine to continue that trend. But I think Durden has a ton of upside in this particular matchup if he wins, and for the price, I’m probably willing to use him as well.
I do not think a slow paced striking matchup is enough to beat Van. He’ll need damage, or lots of wrestling. At 7.7k, I think he very likely smashes value in a win, and the betting line is still competitive. His ITD line is still +375 which is poor and still suggests his path to a finish is difficult.
I won’t be much overweight on Durden or anything, but I love the matchup environment and Durden’s wrestling profile gives him potentially sneaky upside at a good price tag.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Van by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin
Fight Odds: Chiesa -111, Griffin -103
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Griffin 8.3k, Chiesa 7.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Michael Chiesa won The Ultimate Fighter back in 2012 where he’s been one of the longer tenured fighters on the active roster. He moved up to 170 lbs back in 2018 where he’s since been up and down – he’s 5-3 at 170, 12-7 in the UFC and 17-7 as a pro. Max Griffin’s rounding out his 8th year on the active roster and has been a hit or miss commodity over the years – he’s 8-8 in the UFC and 20-10 as a pro.
The striking component:
Chiesa is a grappler by base and has a relatively rigid/basic type of striking.
Despite spending most of his career at 155 lbs, he’s still a longer southpaw at 170 standing 6’1” with a 75” reach. He more so looks to circle the outside, pop a low kick, jab and straight left.
In that, he’s low volume landing 1.8 SLpM at 39%, 2.9 DLpM at 30% and hasn’t shown to be a power threat through his lengthier run. In that, over the course of 18 UFC fights, he’s never really “struck” his way to a victory. There’s always been a grappling component involved in his wins.
However, he actually got the better of the stand up against Brady a few fights back which I thought was surprising, albeit not a ton happened – he also didn’t look bad standing in the limited exchanges in his fights with Magny, Luque and Ferguson.
To Chiesa’s credit, he’s made his style work for him to an extent and has never been KO’d (technically he was against Lauzon but that was a cut stoppage, doesn’t really count) so he’s been durable against some solid hitters. However, he was hurt in his fights with Pettis and Holland.
Given his outside, more non-committal style, he only eats 1.7 SApM at 54% and 3.3 DApM at 60%.
So, he’s not really eating much in totality, however he doesn’t always react the best when he does take cleaner shots and when he’s effectively cut off.
Overall, Chiesa isn’t incapable on the feet considering he tends to limit overall exchanges pretty well, but it’s still more of a weakness than a strength in his game and he’ll struggle against more athletic/explosive guys.
Griffin’s an interesting striker who’s longer for the division with a 76” reach, but doesn’t always use it effectively.
However, offensively he’s generally been solid in terms of his technical acumen despite it optically looking a bit rickety, as he’s got some good boxing and sharp right hand.
His activity’s been a bit all over the board throughout his career as he’s been high output in certain matchups but somewhat patient in others – he lands 3.9 SLpM at 49% and 4.8 DLpM at 47% — both numbers slightly exceeding the divisional average.
It needs to be noted as well that Griffin has fought some tough guys in his run, giving some credence to his underwhelming 8-8 UFC record.
However, he’s out struck guys like Mike Perry and Neal Magny. He’s also been competitive in the stand up with Morono, Oliveira, Dos Santos, Means and Wells.
But what I like about Griffin is his foot work and he utilizes a good jab, straight right and solid shovel uppercut/left hook which he’ll throw from stance switch on entry.
Defensively, his metrics sit right around the divisional average as well, eating 3.8 SApM at 58% and 4.6 DApM at 61%.
But Griffin’s also shown to be a very durable fighter, having never been finished with strikes at distance and only knocked down once (which he recovered quickly from) in 2.5 hours of UFC cage time.
The problem I’ve had with Griffin historically is that he struggles putting “stamps” on fights and as a result, he’s been in a lot of closer contests win or lose.
He has a bit of the Matt Semelsberger syndrome in the sense that he has eight UFC knockdowns but only three stoppage victories via strikes – ironically, he didn’t score knockdowns in two of the three.
Overall, Griffin’s a scrappy guy on the feet that isn’t easy to look good against over the course of 15 minutes, but he can fight within the margins or just trade rounds.
How it plays out: Griffin will be the better striker as he’s just a more proven distance commodity with better boxing, pacing, power and has slightly better distance defense on a percentage basis. But as noted, Chiesa’s a weird guy to fight because he doesn’t engage in extended exchanges. So, my concern for Griffin is that he just obliges Chiesa in this lower volume range fight and doesn’t get after him as much as he should. But even in that scenario, Griffin will still have all the optical advantages as the advancing fighter and all of the KO/big moment upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
This is the wheelhouse of Chiesa and what has brought him the amount of success he’s had in the UFC.
He lands 3.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 52% and is in control time positions for 43% of his overall fight time – very solid ground efficiency numbers.
He’s only a BJJ purple belt on paper but his grappling acumen well exceeds his belt status. He’s a fighter that’s going to maximize his win condition every time out and can just blanket guys on top because he has good control components, and really utilizes his frame in his grappling.
A great example of this was against RDA (solid black belt). He took RDA down six times and actually took his back and had him in a solid RNC in the first round of that fight.
Another example of his pedigree was in submitting Dariush – another world class black belt where he seamlessly took his back and finished him without the choke even being under the chin.
Those are just two examples of how potent of an offensive grappler Chiesa can be.
He also went 4/6 on TDs and got 15+ minutes of control time on Magny over a 25-minute fight, winning a UD – Magny another black belt.
So, seven of his 12 UFC wins have come via submission however, he’s been submitted in 5/7 UFC losses as he has lost position in the scramble at times, shot sloppy shots or gotten out-wrestled. So despite his higher offensive pedigree, he’s got some real issues defensively and only stuffs TDs at 60%.
But in general, he’s a guy who’s floated under the radar over the years, and hasn’t been given enough credit in my opinion for his offensive skills.
Griffin’s a striker by nature but has mixed wrestling into his fights over the years as well, landing 1.4 TDs per 15 minutes at 41%.
He’s won rounds via wrestling against Imadaev, Morono, Oliveira, a late TD against Condit helped him seal that victory, and he ultimately won in the wrestling against Means.
However, he has struggled with control components (at times but not always) and isn’t much of a submission threat, but is defensively responsible on top.
Defensively, he stuffs at 69% and really the only guy to have extended wrestling success on him was Covington in his debut back in 2016 – no shame hindsight given Convington’s one of the better wrestlers in the division.
However, Magny did have a lot of grinding/clinch/back success later in that 3rd round, a bit from Oliveira and Means later as well.
He was able to work up off the only TD Wells landed in the last outing which was just a weird fight overall.
But wrestling has been more of a positive than a negative for Griffin. However, he also hasn’t fought many pure wrestlers in his run either and his control ratios are only slightly positive at 16.7% vs 15%.
How it plays out: This is where I’d give the advantage to Chiesa, but I also don’t think the ground is entirely black and white similar to the striking. I say that primarily because Griffin is physically strong, has good TDD and has been difficult to hold down for extended periods of time even when he’s grounded. However, he has given his back in a few different fights which is big no no against a guy like Chiesa. I’d also say that Chiesa is one of the best ground fighters in totality that Griffin has fought in his career. So, I do give the large bulk of potential minute equity to Chiesa. At the same time, I wouldn’t necessarily be shocked if Griffin looked to mix a TD or two in as well. Chiesa isn’t a great defensive wrestler and his submission defense struggles are heavily documented at this point. Griffin hasn’t shown any real submission upside, but he is a main training partner of Fluffy Hernandez who is good with front chokes specifically so Griffin pulling something off isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. Nonetheless, Chiesa has most of the upside.
Good booking between two guys in the latter stages of their careers with Chiesa turning 37 on fight day and Griffin at 39. Both guys can still go though and I wouldn’t consider them washed or anything. I see merit to both, but I don’t have much of an opinion. Despite Chiesa never being conventionally KO’d before, Griffin is very live to hurt him here. On the flip side, despite Griffin never being submitted before, Chiesa is the most potent submission grappler that Griffin’s faced so if Chiesa’s getting off on his game, he could submit Griffin. Where I’m ultimately struggling is assessing how much wrestling success Chiesa can have. I’ll pick Griffin but I don’t feel great about it. High variance matchup.
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On DraftKings, I definitely expect Chiesa to be the more popular side, as he’s priced at 7.9k and trending as a value.
It’s not a massive value, but he’s lined as a slight favorite on some books now, so it’s worth keeping an eye on. That, plus the fact that his game is fully tied into grappling success, Chiesa definitely has upside.
My biggest issue with Chiesa has always been that he’s so one-dimensional in his grappling and has no real path to victory standing. Plus, he’s been submitted so many times which is a major red flag for fighters who need grappling success to win.
Still, when Chiesa wins, he’s going to score pretty well. He has recent wins of 98, 101, 91, 110 and 103. At 9.5k, maybe that would be a concern. At 7.9k, it should be more than enough.
I’m far from confident Chiesa will succeed here though as Griffin is tough to hold down. I do also think Chiesa is pretty likely to have some success, and take the back. Given that, it makes sense to me to use Chiesa as a secondary target.
I do fear slightly that Chiesa will be more owned than everyone else in this range, largely due to that line value. If that’s the case, I’m happy to pivot away.
But he rates out fine overall with a +295 ITD line, and grappling dependency, and in a win he should contend for the optimal. He’s a solid secondary target all things considered.
Griffin at 8.3k is much less appealing, and I expect him to be largely unowned this week.
He has recent wins of 50, 84 and 85, which I just don’t think is enough at this price tag. Plus, there’s a very good chance Chiesa will both limit striking exchanges, and also control Griffin at points to limit his overall offensive production.
Chiesa almost always loses by submission. If I thought Griffin had a real chance at a sub, he’d be in play for me, but that feels like a big stretch. He hasn’t won by submission yet in the UFC and I can’t back on that outcome.
Griffin is only +285 to win ITD here, and that’s probably a better line than I would give him personally. I do think he could hurt Chiesa at some point, but it’s tough to really chase the outcome.
Basically, I view Griffin as a full on leverage target. He should be low owned, and much lower owned than Chiesa. If you want to be unique, you can target him for that reason and hope he can find a way to win ITD.
With a smaller portfolio, it’s going to be difficult for me to get there often.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chiesa by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Clay Guida vs. Chase Hooper
Fight Odds: Hooper -1153, Guida +706
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Hooper 9.7k, Guida 6.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Chase Hooper is looking for his first four fight win streak in the UFC when he takes on Clay Guida this weekend.
Hooper is coming off the best win of his career where he completely dominated Viacheslav Borshchev back in May. We bet Hooper there so it was awesome to see him get the win.
Hooper’s grappling on the mat is his bread and butter and he can definitely keep beating UFC level competition with it. Hooper is a dangerous submission grappler and is tricky at using leg entanglements to either get a submission or sweep / scramble and reverse position. He has a decent half guard sweep as well. Once on top, Hooper can absolutely go to work and I like his ground and pound and tenacity. He can end fights on the mat. I really like his pace and cardio too. I also just like Hooper’s toughness and tenacity. He tries hard in fights.
Hooper’s takedowns are okay but not great. He lands 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think his actual takedowns are very good and he does lack some physicality. He has struggled landing takedowns on guys in his UFC career. However, he does do a good job of just being aggressive with his strikes and pressure, and will do anything to get a hold of his opponents including pulling guard. He is at least tenacious even if his pure takedowns aren’t good. It will work against a lot of guys. However, anyone with solid tdd will surely give him issues.
Hooper is a bit of a liability on the feet. We have seen him knocked down five times in the UFC and he got the crap kicked out of him by Steve Garcia. Garcia is a very heavy hitter so I will give Hooper some slack there. However, I will always be a bit concerned for Hooper if he is going against someone with power and decent tdd.
Hooper has improved his striking though. He actually dropped Borshchev which was most likely luck. However, he lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.33 in return. Most of those strikes have been landed on the mat by him though and he actually defends strikes at a terrible 36 percent. I think Hooper uses pace, pressure, and cardio well though to aid his striking. He isn’t a huge hitter and isn’t very physical or technical. However, we have seen him bother guys on the feet by simply being tenacious.
Hooper will be taking on UFC veteran Clay Guida who is now 43 years old. You know what you are going to get with Clay Guida. He is going to try very hard for three rounds, he is going to go for a lot of takedowns, and he is going to use his cardio as a weapon to push a hard pace.
Guida lands and attempts a lot of takedowns. He lands 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at 36 percent. So he is attempting close to 10 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is a fantastic pace. I don’t necessarily think he is a good wrestler, but he is solid and his tenacity and pace definitely helps his process.
Guida is limited as a striker. He lands 2.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.01 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. He just looks to limit engagements, and I don’t really trust him as a striker. He just isn’t very dynamic or dangerous.
Submission defense is one concern that I have of Guida. He has actually been submitted in four of his last eight losses, and he just isn’t the best submission grappler. He can land takedowns, push a pace, and control fighters at times. However, I do think that he will continue to be a candidate to get submitted.
Guida defends takedowns at a decent 67 percent, and I consider his defensive wrestling fine. He doesn’t seem like he will be easy to hold down. However, he gives up his back and you can put hooks in and get dominant positions on him.
Guida is historically a decent fighter and his style can work, but I do think he looked REALLY bad in his recent matchup against Rafa Garcia. He only attempted three takedowns in that fight and just looked helpless on the feet. Garcia beat the absolute crap out of him. It was a bad look and Guida’s best days look like they are behind him. I think Guida looked okay against Joaquim Silva in his last matchup but he has clearly declined.
As far as this matchup goes, I definitely think Hooper is the rightful favorite because he is younger and way more dangerous as a submission grappler. These two actually competed against one another in a grappling match two years ago and Hooper submitted Guida quickly with a calf slicer, so I am sure that gives Hooper some confidence going into this fight.
Once these two are actually both on the mat, Hooper is just simply better as a submission grappler and I think he could submit Guida at any moment.
On the feet, I actually probably favor Hooper as well based on his youth, tenacity, and volume. I think he will just go after Guida, maybe take some shots in return but land a bit more. It is hard to confidently say Hooper will outstrike anyone, but I honestly think he is better than Guida on the feet at this stage of Guida’s career.
I could see Guida at least presenting some issues though. Guida could maybe land some takedowns. Guida could maybe land some strikes as Hooper has bad striking defense. Guida could maybe stop some sloppy takedown attempts from Hooper. So maybe all those things result in some success for Guida.
However, Hooper has a clear submission grappling edge and is a much younger fighter who I trust more so my guess is Hooper gets this done.
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On DraftKings, Hooper is shockingly expensive at 9.7k but that will tie into his betting line which is sitting north of -1100.
I always find it difficult to rely on Hooper because he’s a really poor wrestler and a pretty poor athlete. He’s just not physical enough to make his takedown game work at the higher levels, and his striking defense has been egregiously bad at times.
So it really wouldn’t be a surprise ever if he got stuffed and got hurt.
With that said, his pacing has been elite, especially on the mat. He’s landing an absurd number of strikes in control positions and it’s led to some crazy high scores on DK in wins, including 134, 95, 120 and 143.
I don’t know if a 120+ score is the most likely outcome here, but it’s a possibility. If Hooper can get in control positions, he’ll have upside to score points and to win ITD.
I don’t fully trust him to actually land takedowns, but I do think we’ll see these two tangle. Guida probably wants to wrestle anyway, and there’s a good chance Hooper eventually finds top position and/or the back. He’s -215 to win ITD and a submission win feels pretty likely.
At 9.7k, Hooper can’t be an outright priority and it would be perfectly fine to not have the salary available to pay up this far. The price should also limit his ownership to a degree. When you can pay up, I do like him a bit more than the fighters priced nearby, and I think he has one of the better ceilings on the slate for non-five round options.
Guida at 6.5k doesn’t really interest me. I suppose he could land some takedowns but I don’t expect him to do much with them, and it more than likely will put him in danger. He doesn’t land enough significant strikes for me to feel confident in any knockout equity either.
Guida is a massive dog here and is +1600 to win ITD which is a terrible line. There are too many live dogs on this slate for me to make any real investment in Guida. Unless you’re aiming for a pure leverage punt in large fields, I don’t see much merit to chasing a Guida victory, and I’ll likely choose to fade him outright.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hooper by Guillotine, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Lukasz Brzeski
Fight Odds: Nzechukwu -568, Brzeski +413
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Nzechukwu 9.4k, Brzeski 6.8k
Weight Class: HW
Coming off the demolishment of 5’3” HW Chris Barnett, Kennedy Nzechukwu will step back into the Octagon to fight Lukasz Brzeski.
Nzechukwu is mostly a striker and a mediocre one at that. He lands 5.34 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.83 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. He is very tall though, standing 6’5” with an 83-inch reach which really aids him at distance.
He’s had some good performances in the past. He came back to beat Carlos Ulberg in a high-paced contest which looks better and better. He knocked out Ion Cutelaba and submitted Devin Clark.
He’s just green and always has been. That’s why he’s barely landing more strikes than he absorbs, and his defense isn’t spectacular. But Nzechukwu can at least throw stuff, and he’s actually coming off a recent loss in which he landed 106 sig. strikes in 15 minutes.
The bigger issue lately has been on the defensive side where he’s been knocked out and hurt a bunch. Da Woon Jung KOd him in round one in 2021. Jacoby KOd him in round one in 2023. And OSP recently beat him by decision, but dropped Nzechukwu and landed 143 sig. strikes.
So ultimately, I’m still far from trusting on Nzechukwu. He’s capable, and can put out offense, but he’ll rarely dominate the numbers and he has some defensive question marks.
Brzeski is probably fighting for his roster spot here after getting KOd by Mick Parkin in the first round in July.
He’s now 1-4 in the UFC after earning his contract on the Contender Series in 2021. In that span, he’s been knocked out early twice, and badly outwrestled twice. He also arguably beat Martin Buday in a fight he outlanded Buday 118-66, but lost the split decision.
His other win came against Valter Walker who was one of the two to badly outwrestle him, but Walker got tired and Brzeski had more output late.
That is the primary upside to Brzeski’s game. He’s a willing kickboxer, and lands 4.90 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.51 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate.
His willingness to throw for three rounds is really the only upside to his style.
He’s a pretty sloppy striker, but he can attack multiple levels, and he has some basic power for the HW division. He’s also been dropped by three of his last four opponents, and isn’t particularly durable.
Brzeski’s wrestling is really bad too. He lands 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes but defends at 36 percent. To his credit, he can survive, but his pure wrestling defense sucks and gives a high floor to any opponent who is capable.
There’s a very real chance this matchup is sloppy, but ultimately I do have to favor Nzechukwu, who I think is improving and is the more technical fighter of the two.
Brzeski is also used to fighting smaller fighters, but I can see Nzechukwu giving him problems at range with a five-inch reach edge. I also think Nzechukwu is the more durable of the two, and has more knockout equity as well.
On the mat, neither guy projects to wrestle but of the two, I’d lean toward Nzechukwu. He rarely tries but this isn’t a bad matchup for him to shoot a couple of takedowns and get on top.
The tough part is that you still have to cap the win% ceiling of a fighter like Nzechukwu pretty severely. He’s been dropped in two of his last three fights. He’s absorbing nearly 5.0 per minute. He’s not a consistent wrestler.
There’s a decent chance this is just a straightforward kickboxing fight in which case I do favor Nzechukwu, but Brzeki can keep up a decent pace. He can kick at range. He has some power.
Rounds being competitive wouldn’t be that crazy, nor would Brzeski randomly hurting Nzechukwu. I like the technique of Nzechukwu much more so I’ll take him to maneuver around the challenges and get his hand raised, but I don’t feel great about him being a massive favorite.
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On DraftKings, Nzechukwu is priced up to 9.4k which will put him in the boom or bust category given his style.
He may get some attention as a huge favorite, coming off a 110 point score against Barnett, with his previous win scoring 105 as well. He’s -215 to win ITD which is very strong.
Honestly, he’s fine. He definitely could win by early KO and score 100-110 points, and contend for the optimal lineup. I never love targeting those spots heavily but it’s a reasonable one to mix in.
He’s just not the biggest power threat comparatively, and for example was having more success to the body in his last win. He actually only has one knockdown in his last nine wins. So I just don’t think a quick KO is a lock.
If the fight extends, he could still score OK but this is a decent range with several grapplers, and Rakhmonov, and it would be difficult to beat every one out.
I don’t expect him to be ultra chalky so overall, it’s a fine tournament play for upside. But it’s definitely not a priority of mine and I won’t feel too bad if I’m not even able to pay up this far.
Brzeski is just a differentiator at 6.8k.
He will be very low owned, coming off yet another loss. He’s not a very good fighter and has terrible odds here. He’s only +800 to win ITD.
There is still variance in the HW division, and Nzechukwu has been getting hurt recently. Brzeski is comfortable striking and may get the fight he wants.
At 10% or lower ownership, Brzeski isn’t the worst large-field tournament differentiator. But with a limited portfolio, it will be very tough to get to him at all. I’ll likely pay up for win equity in the vast majority of my lineups, but he’s a bit more in play with a large portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nzechukwu by Decision (Confidence=Medium)