UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira (6/28/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Fight Odds: Topuria -452, Oliveira +355
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Topuria 9.3k, Oliveira 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
With the departure of Islam Makhachev to the welterweight division, the championship belt at 155 pounds is once again up for grabs.
Stepping in as a huge favorite to claim the title is Ilia Topuria, who recently departed the featherweight division in order to move up to lightweight. He’ll square off with another former champion in Charles Oliveira in what should make for an epic championship clash.
I have not been as high as the public on Topuria throughout his UFC career, but he’s largely proven me wrong, and continues to showcase his super effective boxing that has led to big damage, and big knockouts against the best competition in his weight class.
Most notably, Topuria is coming off a victory in which he hurt Max Holloway badly in the third down, and finished him with strikes, which is the first time that has happened to Holloway in his career. Prior to that, Topuria brutally knocked out Alexander Volkanovski to win his first championship.
I really respect the boxing of Topuria in general and I do think he can and will continue to have success. He’s technical, and he’s extremely dangerous when he can get his opponent backed up against the fence.
Especially in those close ranges, in the pocket, Topuria is super effective. He will attack multiple levels, in combination, and he is very likely to land big shots in those exchanges.
At distance, Topuria is a bit less effective. He is still a fine, technical and capable boxer, but he doesn’t throw at a super high volume and he isn’t a clear minute winner without damaging shots.
I’ve had some concerns with him over the years in terms of cardio, especially as early in his career, he looked quite vulnerable in an extended fight. However, we’ve seen him go five rounds against Josh Emmett, and he fought into the third round against Holloway. I still have some concerns about Topuria slowing down when he’s pushed, but at his pacing, it seems he can realistically fight for 25 minutes which is a huge benefit to his game.
Additionally, Topuria is a very good wrestler and grappler. He’s not the most aggressive wrestler and only lands 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he’s also a black belt in jiu-jitsu and very skilled on the mat.
Offensive wrestling simply hasn’t been a focal point for Topuria though. Yes, he can still land the occasional takedown, but even with two takedowns landed against Holloway for example, he was only able to accrue 45 seconds of control time. I’m a bit skeptical of how much control success he can have against the elites of the division, especially at lightweight.
Defensively, Topuria has been pretty excellent. He defends takedowns at 92 percent and he defends strikes at 64 percent.
It’s really difficult to look at Topuria’s profile and come up with red flags, but I still do have some concerns.
Primarily, Topuria isn’t the best minute winner on the feet. His metrics are strong as he lands 4.69 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.84 per minute, but that is a bit skewed from his one fight against Emmett where he outlanded Emmett 152 to 87.
These are the strike counts in his other matchups:
- 75 to 79 vs. Holloway
- 35 to 47 vs. Volk
- 40 to 36 vs. Bryce
- 20 to 22 vs. Herbert
- 18 to 10 vs. Hall
- 31 to 16 vs. Jackson
- 13 to 17 vs. Zalal
Topuria clearly makes up for his lack of volume at times with power and effectiveness, and I do expect him to outperform his metrics in the same manner moving forward. But the fact is, Topuria most often isn’t landing many more strikes than his opponents, even weak ones. Oftentimes he’s losing the strike count battle. At some point, that can catch up with you and I do think there’s a better chance he loses rounds at lightweight in some close striking affairs.
Additionally, in Topuria’s lone match at lightweight, he was hurt badly by Jai Herbert. He’ll face bigger shots moving forward and his power may be less impactful. He still killed Herbert, so maybe not, but I think there’s a more likely chance he eats damage at LW.
As far as the defensive wrestling, I think Topuria is good with first-level stuff but he’s only been taken down once, which came against Bryce Mitchell, and he could not get back up. He laid on his back for the final minute+ of the round, and tried some basic subs from his back.
I think Topuria is a very good fighter but I also think he’s run a little bit hot in terms of effectiveness. It’s extremely difficult to knock down every single opponent and without those knockdowns, Topuria is a little more vulnerable. I think his body will hold up a bit differently at LW than FW, which is a minor concern. He may just smash through everyone around him but there’s still some risk in my mind based on the numbers I’m seeing.
Charles Oliveira is a bit more straightforward at this point of his career, and he’s coming off a very strong victory over Michael Chandler in November.
Oliveira is a very well-rounded fighter and he’s capable of beating most opponents in the division both on the feet and on the mat.
He’s a record holder for finishes and submissions in the UFC, and is surely one of the best MMA grapplers in the sport today. If he can secure the back especially, Oliveira is a real threat, but the same can be said in transition or from the back as well.
He’s improved his wrestling greatly over the years and is very solid now, averaging 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Oliveira is also a skilled and dangerous striker, and is quite potent there too. He lands 3.40 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.21 per minute.
The biggest issue I have with Oliveira is that he gets hurt too often. It shows up in his defensive striking rate which sits at 49 percent, and he’s been dropped by three of his past six opponents.
He’s made great strides over the years to be able to come back from these slip-ups though. He used to be known as a fighter who’d just quit at any sign of adversity, but that’s not the case any more. He won two of those three fights in which he was dropped, as proof.
But against an opponent like Topuria, that’s obviously my major concern. Topuria hits really hard and if he can get pocket exchanges, I think it’s pretty likely Topuria does hurt Oliveira and realistically scores the finish.
Normally a problem is that fighters can’t always chase Oliveira to the canvas, even when he’s hurt, in fear of his grappling. Topuria should be fine to do that and could potentially even sub him in a club-and-sub situation.
I also just expect Topuria to be effective when he does land, and that should give him upside to score big moments at any point in the fight. Early or late.
I do consider Oliveira a live underdog though. Oliveira is a real lightweight, and he’s three inches taller with a five inch reach advantage. He’s also a better kicker than Topuria and we’ve already seen Topuria hurt badly from a head kick in the past.
Oliveira is also effective in the clinch, so if Topuria does close distance well, I’d expect Oliveira to try and grab hold of him.
I’m unsure about the grappling exchanges. Topuria has pretty good takedown defense and Oliveira may not be able to get him down. Oliveira is big though and a good wrestler, and also the best MMA sub grappler Topuria has ever faced. One takedown for Oliveira could easily lead to a round win, or a submission attempt, and an Oliveira submission is certainly on the table too.
My best guess is Oliveira won’t have much wrestling success, but 1-2 takedowns or a standing back take is well within the range of outcomes. It gives Oliveira one path.
Topuria probably can land takedowns, as Oliveira only defends at 56 percent, but I don’t see the point. It will give Oliveira hope and a path to reverse position or threaten. Topuria may project for a couple of takedowns but I don’t think it’s an easy path for him to have success with.
I think it’s fair to favor Topuria in this matchup because he’s a big hitter and well-rounded, and Oliveira gets hurt a lot. But minute to minute, I don’t see why Oliveira can’t compete.
Oliveira is bigger and longer, and throws enough strikes at distance. He also has some knockout and submission upside of his own. And he’s gone five rounds before. I think the public is underestimating how much variance factors into striking exchanges because unless Topuria is hurting Oliveira badly, I don’t think he’ll be looking like a -500 favorite. Yes, that outcome seems inevitable to some degree but Oliveira has paths too and it’s quite possible rounds are competitive standing without major damage.
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On DraftKings, Topuria is priced up to 9.3k which gives me mixed feelings.
He’s going to project extremely well as a huge favorite, with an elite ITD line at -325, so it’s quite reasonable to consider Topuria a priority on the slate outright.
Even in this range, DK priced up Smith to $9.9k so he’s $600 more than Topuria, and that’s going to mean more ownership falls Topuria’s way as he’s simply more affordable.
Obviously, a win for Topuria should equate to a good score. It probably comes by knockout and I’d guess it comes early. I think 95-110 is a pretty realistic score for Topuria and that could mean he finds himself on the optimal lineup.
My issue is that Topuria hasn’t shown the elite ceiling in early finishes. In his six wins inside the distance, Topuria has scored 97, 94, 101, 100, 100 and 112. So of six ITD wins, I’d guess only one would compete for the optimal at his current price tag.
His best score of all-time was in a decision over Emmett which scored 126 DK points. That’s a great result but it did come with three takedowns and a knockdown, and nearly five minutes of control. I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome in an extended fight against Oliveira.
So the fear here really is that Topuria wins by TKO in round two or three. If that happens, he probably hasn’t landed a ton of strikes yet, and takedowns may not come either. Even with the finish, it may only get him to the high 90s or low 100s, and therefore he’d be in danger of missing the optimal.
I honestly think you can choose to shy away from Topuria because of this. Maybe you do try to prioritize Smith above. Maybe you prioritize Pantoja outright.
Clearly, if you can afford Topuria, he’ll be very viable and should give you a good score in the win. But I do think there are some ceiling question marks with his style that at a high price tag and high public ownership, at least give me pause on how to attack him.
I prefer Topuria much more in cash and smaller fields where you don’t need the perfect roster. In large fields, I don’t mind pivoting off occasionally as there are still outs for him to miss the optimal, even with a standard early finish.
Oliveira at 6.9k is basically just a low-end secondary target by default.
It’s difficult to rate him any higher because he’s +355 to win, and I don’t love dumping investments into big dogs generally. He won’t carry a real floor either.
The upside though is that Oliveira is one of the best finishers in UFC history, and he’s dangerous in all areas. There is no place in this fight where he is completely out of it, and he’s also the bigger, more proven fighter in this particular weight class.
You’re getting some win equity, and a strong ceiling for a very cheap price tag, and likely leverage to come along with it. I absolutely prefer to attack the 7k range where the win equity is far greater, but at a cheap cost, having some exposure to Oliveira makes sense.
He is only +425 to win ITD, but an elite talent overall with some grappling and finishing equity, in a five-round contest, so mixing in some Oliveira near the field percentage in tournaments makes a lot of sense to me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Topuria by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
Fight Odds: Pantoja -230, Kara-France +193
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Pantoja 9k, Kara-France 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
A rematch 10 years in the making, Alexandre Pantoja will square off with Kai Kara-France for the flyweight title this weekend.
Officially, I don’t believe it’s counted as a rematch though I could have sworn Pantoja competed with Kara-France on The Ultimate Fighter Flyweight season. I went back and checked, and yep, Pantoja did beat him two rounds to zero back in 2016. Doesn’t mean a whole lot, though that season was pretty stacked in hindsight and a cool memory.
Pantoja is now the undisputed flyweight champion and one of the best P4P fighters in the sport, currently riding a seven-fight win streak which includes three consecutive defenses.
He’s a very high-volume muay-thai striker, and one of the best back takers in the sport, which he has further solidified with improved wrestling volume as well.
Pantoja currently lands 4.41 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.92 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. He’s topped out at 125 and 129 sig. strikes in two recent decisions.
Furthermore, he now lands 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 9, 8 and 6 in his last three five-rounders. That is honestly an insane pace, and one of the reasons why I think pacing metrics are so highly correlated with success. It’s simply a lot of offense per round, and landing 120+ sig. strikes and 5+ takedowns over 25 minutes gives you an insane floor of win equity.
Pantoja isn’t the greatest finisher though, he can absolutely strangle you. I wouldn’t say he’s got elite power punching and he’s fairly limited submission wise, outside of the RNC.
He’s also 35 years old now. It’s not old but it’s not young. I think he’ll continue to find success in this division but age does impact speed, and being fast at flyweight is very important.
Pantoja isn’t the greatest athlete or explosive finisher in the world, but he’s ultimately a dominant round winner given his pacing metrics, and especially as long as he can land takedowns, Pantoja will be a threat.
Kai Kara-France feels like he’s a bit lucky to be here, largely due to the lack of depth in the division.
However, he’s a skilled fighter and proven enough to be in this top tier of the division, so I’m fine with giving him another crack. I just don’t think he carries the same type of ceiling as Pantoja, and I suppose the odds are indicative of that.
Kara-France has had some big knockouts in recent years and that power is honestly his best weapon at the moment. He’s coming off a big KO over Steve Erceg in the first round in August, and has another big KO over Cody Garbrandt a few years back.
He also challenged Brandon Moreno for the title in 2022, and looked decent, but was eventually hurt and finished in the third round. He fell to Amir Albazi in a five-round decision after that.
Kara-France is a kickboxer and that is his main base of skills. He lands 4.56 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.22, with a 65 percent striking defense.
Kara-France has never blown the volume metrics out of the water, but he’s solid, and he can land 80-100 sig. strikes in a three-round fight pretty regularly. As noted, he also has power.
He’s also showing really strong defense. He’s fought a lot of volume guys but he’s making them miss at a decent rate, which I like. He’s been knocked out before but only three fighters in the UFC have dropped him in 12 matchups, and only one of those actually resulted in a knockout.
My problem really is that Kara-France doesn’t have a whole lot else. He’s not big. He doesn’t really wrestle offensively, landing only 0.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. And his grappling defense is good, but not great.
Officially it shows as 82 percent takedown defense, which is great. But he’s given up takedowns and he’s given up his back a few different times. Royval subbed him as well off a knockdown.
I think Kara-France is live to win some striking rounds. I think he’s live to hurt Pantoja. I don’t think he’s exceptionally likely to hurt Pantoja though, and I also wouldn’t make him more than a slight favorite to win those striking rounds, even if he gets them.
Pantoja also has a ton of grappling upside. If he decides to attempt 3 takedowns in 25 minutes this time, that will change my mind. But in his last four fights, he has attempted 15.5 per 25 minutes which again, is insane.
I do think Kara-France is physically strong enough to hold Pantoja off him for a few times, or even a round or two. But on 15 takedown attempts, Pantoja is going to project for like 4-7 takedowns landed, which is plenty of time for him to take the back and threaten. He could easily just win the fight with grappling, and I think a submission via RNC is a pretty likely outcome.
Even with no grappling, Pantoja is a very proven pace fighter with good muay-thai, and he could still edge out Kara-France there as well. I would not be nearly as comfortable though and I’d think KKF would be live in that kind of matchup, but if you factor in any grappling, Pantoja’s additional striking should still be enough for him to compete and take rounds.
Kara-France just needs to showcase some insane defensive wrestling and scrambling, and drastically limit those takedowns and back takes. It’s possible he could do it. Then he’d also need to keep up with Pantoja for five rounds, and land the bigger shots.
I’m not ruling Kara-France out of this fight but I just think Pantoja is a better all-around fighter at this point with a clear advantage in grappling, and I expect it to help carry him to another title defense.
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On DraftKings, Pantoja is probably my favorite fighter on the slate at 9k.
I can’t say I am super confident in him, just because this is MMA and nothing is ever truly safe. He’s not even a massive favorite at -230 to win.
But the aforementioned pace is enough to showcase a clear enough ceiling that at 9k, is tough to pass up.
Pantoja only scored 103 in his last win, but he incredibly scored 143 DK points in three consecutive fights prior. If we get 110 from him this weekend I’d be thrilled, and even 103 is still in play to contend for the optimal. If he scores 120+, that’s a smash.
And just based on the dynamics of this matchup, Pantoja seems like he might be able to duplicate those big scores. The fight is likely to extend at -170 Over 3.5 rounds, and KKF is tough enough to not get finished quickly, usually. He will scramble up a few times potentially.
I think we realistically could see Pantoja hit bigger takedown numbers again here, especially if the fight goes 25 minutes. I think 5+ takedowns are in play, as are 90+ significant strikes. Control is very likely as well too. And then on the feet, KKF will push a pace usually which will force Pantoja to engage.
It just has the makings of Pantoja putting up another strong score. Even if it’s not optimal, I like his floor enough in a win and he has one of the best ceilings on the slate, without a doubt. He’s also +135 to win ITD, for what it’s worth, and that could still help him achieve a big fantasy result too.
I also expect he’ll be popular, and potentially the most popular fighter on the entire slate. Only being priced at 9k helps him here, and will make him easier to roster.
He just seems like an easy, high-end points-per-dollar option to me. I expect I’ll end up with moderate-heavy ownership by default. It’s ok to pivot away at times too, especially if you’re on chalky combos with Topuria as well.
Kara-France at 7k seems like a decent floor play for the price, especially in cash. He could still get taken down and subbed, and score 0-20 though.
He also could win. He could hurt Pantoja or win some striking rounds. He’s only +425 to win ITD though and Pantoja is pretty tough.
If I’m going very cheap, I’m honestly probably going to one of the championship dogs. So I don’t mind KKF for cheap and as one way to get off Pantoja/Topuria constructions. He’s a fine low-end secondary target.
I also just don’t think it’s a great matchup and don’t really want to make a major investment here, so I wouldn’t expect to end up overweight to the field. I’ll prefer to pay up a tiny bit to the mid 7k range where there is more win equity on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pantoja by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
Fight Odds: Van -115, Royval -101
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Royval 8.2k, Van 8k
Weight Class: 125
Oh man, I am pumped to see Joshua Van back in action after a short turnaround, and he’ll have his work cut out for him against the former title challenger Brandon Royval.
Van is coming off a beating over Bruno Silva on June 7th, where he pummeled Silva for a few rounds, knocking him down three separate times before finishing the fight off with less than 60 seconds left.
I’m incredibly high on Van as a prospect at this stage, and I think he’s on the path to becoming the champion of this division. He’s one of the best strikers in this weight class without a doubt, and I think some of the dynamics of his game will only make him more dangerous as he steps into five-round fights.
This will only be a three-round fight though, and I do have some pause because I’m unsure how the short notice turnaround will affect Van. On some levels, it likely doesn’t matter, but multiple weight cuts and intense exchanges over two separate fights could potentially affect Van in some unknown way. I won’t factor it in much though and I’m hopeful he’ll compete as his traditional self.
And as his traditional self, Van will pressure, throw lots of boxing combinations, counter effectively, and land with power. He’ll build as the fight progresses, mixing his levels of attack, and landing more and more volume until he eventually breaks his opponents.
In eight UFC fights, Van has landed 8.20 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.26 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He’s surpassed 115 sig. strikes landed in five separate fights, topping out at 165 and 156 against Durden and Borjas.
His lone loss came to Charles Johnson in 2024 when he was knocked out in the third round. Johnson is a big, long flyweight who’s a skilled striker himself, and Johnson had a lot of success in that first round. Van started to come on hot in the second round, outlanding Johnson 44 to 36, but Johnson eventually knocked him out after just 20 seconds in the third round.
Due to the hectic nature of Van’s fights, and general variance in striking exchanges, Van may be hurt again. I would be surprised if it didn’t happen. But I view him among the more effective strikers in the division and I think he’ll generally survive a few shots here and there, as he’s done over 23 tracked rounds.
The primary worry with Van coming into the UFC, along with general greenness, was that he was a questionable grappler. He’d lost to a grappler on the regional level and didn’t have a real history of wrestling.
Despite this, Van has looked phenomenal defending takedowns in recent fights. He has given up a few here and there, but his first-level defense and scrambling ability appears excellent. His win over Rei Tsuruya was a showcase of that, where Van defended 17/21 takedowns and only allowed 3:49 of control, without any major submission threats.
I do believe he’ll be tested again on the mat, but with an 81 percent takedown defense, I expect Van to keep the fight upright against most.
This matchup against Brandon Royval should be a fun one, as Royval is known for fighting at a high pace himself.
In fact, I don’t consider Royval to be very good and I think his primary skills lie in his ability to push a hard pace and fight for a full 25 minutes. He’s pulled off back-to-back main event victories over Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira which is extraordinarily impressive.
The Moreno victory is a good one to break down because it was really Royval’s willingness to throw that won him the fight. He attempted a whopping 510 sig. strikes in five rounds, meaning he was attempting more than 100 sig. strikes PER ROUND throughout that fight.
In comparison, Moreno only attempted 211. Of those 211, Moreno was able to land 112 for a 53 percent accuracy. Royval landed 145 of 510 for a 28 percent accuracy.
So despite the volume, Royval wasn’t very accurate or effective, and he still barely won. But he did win, and he did so due to his willingness to throw a shit ton of volume for 25 minutes.
That is what’s going to get him past Van, in my opinion. I do not think Royval is as technical as Van, and he’s far less effective. He’s far less powerful and he’s not nearly as strong of a boxer.
More importantly, Royval is far worse defensively. He’s currently defending strikes at 47 percent which is really poor, and a far cry from Van’s rate of 59 percent. We’ve also seen Royval dropped twice and knocked out once in 10 UFC bouts.
Royval is long for the division though too. He will be four inches taller than Van with a three-inch reach advantage, and he should be the better kicker. He also likes to fight at longer distances which should give him an advantage there.
Royval should also be the better submission grappler. He’s a black belt in BJJ and very crafty on the mat. If he could get the fight down with any consistency, he’d have submission upside over Van.
I’m not ruling that out but it’s hard to project much wrestling success here, as Royval only lands 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. His wrestling isn’t good and he’s not very physical. Van actually lands more takedowns at 0.96 per 15 minutes, though I would guess he’ll use his wrestling defensively here.
It’s another path to victory for Royval but I wouldn’t consider it his primary one, given that the fight should play out on the feet for the most part.
Essentially, Royval will want to jab and kick at distance, and Van will want to pressure him where he can have more success in the pocket. If Van allows Royval to play at kicking distance, Royval will throw a ton of strikes and probably outpoint him to a decision win. If Van pressures semi-aggressively, Van should be the more effective boxer on the inside and could potentially run away with this one too.
Early on, I expect Royval to have success. Van doesn’t start slow but in building, usually the latter rounds are his best rounds. It may also take him a few minutes to find his range. So I could see Royval winning round one and landing a fair amount of volume, though I’d be surprised if it was very effective or did much damage.
Kicking is difficult to do while moving backward, so as long as Van pressures Royval semi-aggresisvely, I expect him to have success. I also think he will land cleanly on the inside and potentially hurt Royval if he can consistently get past the kicking range.
Overall, I have to favor Van here. What stands out to me is just how effective Van is on a strike per strike basis in comparison to Royval. Conversely, Royval needs to avoid big moments from Van and hope that spamming volume is enough. It could be enough. I’ll expect a fun and competitive first round before Van starts to find his range and starts to land the bigger shots.
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On DraftKings, pricing certainly allows for heavy exposures to this fight if you want it.
My primary fear is that we get a striking based decision, in a matchup that’s -190 to go the distance. If Van wins and lands 120 sig. strikes, he could very well score below 80 points on DraftKings and miss the optimal lineup.
On the other hand, this fight has high-pace and chaos written all over it. The volume floor should be super high, and we’ve seen both Van and Royval outperform expectation from a fantasy standpoint.
Van’s box scores are honestly nuts. In his UFC decision wins, he’s scored 69, 100, 113, 106 and 80. And that doesn’t include two TKO victories where Van put up 132 and 135.
Projections wise, Van is going to be closer to the bottom end in wins because in fights that go the distance, knockdowns are simply not as likely to occur. That’s what always scares me. But there’s no doubt he has KD upside and he’s also shown the ability to land 150+ sig. strikes, which gives him another path even in a decision.
At 8k, now as the slight favorite, I expect Van to be popular. I absolutely love him as a talent, and I do think he wins the fight, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if it was competitive. Especially early on, and considering Van’s short turnaround.
I don’t think this is a must play. Van is only +335 to win ITD. If he’s chalky, you could theoretically pivot away. My best guess though is that Van can land 120+ sig. strikes, possibly a takedown or two, and possibly a knockdown or two to come along with it. That’s if he doesn’t just win by TKO. I wouldn’t be surprised if he found himself near the 100 point mark once again.
So despite a questionable rating, I like Van at 8k and I think he’s a strong secondary target in what should be a super high paced scrap.
Royval at 8.2k probably comes in as the leverage side based on the line movement. His box scores look great too though, and his recent wins have put up 118 and 100, with 90 points in a recent loss as well. It’s worth noting those all came in five-round affairs though.
This one is tough because if Royval wins, I would probably predict it to be by a high-paced decision, which still brings the same problems as does the Van side. He could look great and score 80 points, and miss the optimal.
That’s not how Royval typically wins though, and it’s usually ITD. He does have some KD equity and submission equity too. I think a finish is viable if he wins at all, and his ITD line is better than Van’s at +315.
With a limited portfolio, I’m probably not playing heavily into the Royval side just because I think Van is superior. With a larger portfolio, of course it makes sense to include Royval as a secondary target with some upside in the same high-paced fight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Van by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Fight Odds: Moicano -117, Dariush +100
Odds to end ITD: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Moicano 8.4k, Dariush 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Beneil Dariush is a long time UFC vet entering his 12th year with the promotion. But with experience comes age as he’s 35 years old and coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career – he’s 16-6-1 in the UFC and 22-6-1 as a pro. Renato Moicano is also entering his 12th year with the promotion at 35 years old but was riding a four-fight win streak prior to his most recent loss to Makhachev – he’s 12-6 in the UFC and 20-6-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Dariush has always had underrated striking and trains out of Kings MMA under Master Rafael Cordeiro. His metrics aren’t great but slightly above the divisional average, landing 3.8 SLpM at 49% and 4.9 DLpM at 43%.
He’s also a southpaw who really likes that big straight left hand, rear body kick and has a solid clinch game as well. He can be over aggressive at times and a bit reckless though, which has worked to his benefit and detriment in scoring KO’s or being KO’d/hurt himself.
Only three of his 16 UFC wins come via KO/TKO, but he also has seven knockdowns (three of which came in his last five wins) and he does hit hard. He defends strikes at 58% but only eats 2.6 per minute which isn’t bad statistically. If you actually watch his fights though, he’s very defensively liable on the feet at points as he can throw himself into the fire.
I’ve seen him eat bombs in a handful of fights, but he’s ultimately been KO’d in five of his six pro losses. In his defense, many of the KOs have been absolute nukes that would have floored most guys.
But Dariush has still gotten the better of the exchanges in most of his fights, resulting in his positive +1/min distance differential.
Overall, he’s not the prettiest or cleanest striker in the world but is good on the feet – his durability is of obvious concern at this point though.
Despite moving up in the semi-recent past, Moicano is still a long guy for the division, standing 5’11” with a 72” reach. In that, he likes to fight from the outside and uses a lot of lateral movement but we have seen him pressure a bit more in recent years.
His core competency is in his straight punches where he’s got some pop in his shots, but isn’t a power guy with no pro wins via KO at distance. Statistically, he lands 4.36 SLpM at 48% and 5.5 DLpM at 46%. In 12 of his fights that have seen a 2nd round, he’s out landed seven opponents at distance.
The looming issue with Moicano has been his durability, being KO’d in three of his last four losses. To his credit, all to higher level strikers but nonetheless, still of concern.
He can leave his head on the center line after throwing combos and can rely on slipping punches. But the shots he got put down with, specifically in the Fiziev and TKZ fights, would have put down most guys.
Numerically, his numbers aren’t terrible though eating 3.55 SApM at 60% and 4.5 DApM at 64%. Despite getting KO’d by those guys before, he has fared well against other bigger hitters in Stephens, Kattar, Herbert and Hernandez.
He also took the shots of Dober who’s a perennial KO artist, albeit he got buckled a handful of times and had the grappling to bail himself out. He was also dropped with a head kick by RDA.
He was saved by the bell against Turner where he got rocked badly at the end of the 1st round by Turner, who tried to walk off for the win – one of the dumbest fight IQ decisions I’ve seen in a minute.
Most recently, Saint-Denis won the 2nd round via striking but Moicano also dislocated his collar bone which probably played a bit of a role.
Overall, Moicano’s a capable striker in totality if he can stay conscious but despite not being KO’d since 2020, he’s been hurt in numerous other fights.
How it plays out: The striking is interesting here for a handful of reasons. The pros on the Moicano side are that his metrics are slightly better and he’s the “cleaner” guy in terms of what he’s throwing. Both guys have documented durability issues, more recently for Dariush but also against Oliveria and Tsarukyan who are two of the best fighters in the division. The pros for Dariush are that he’s a superior kicker and clinch striker than Moicano and he objectively hits harder. Dariush has seven knockdowns to Moicano’s one in the UFC. It’s also interesting to note that despite Moicano’s recent run, he’s been hurt by three different southpaws in RDA, Dober and Turner – two left hands and a kick – both of Dariush’s best weapons. The striking is close but I lean Dariush on damage upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Dariush is a higher-level black belt and is a respectable wrestler to boot where his ground game has played a larger factor in his career success.
He grinded out Moises (another high-level black belt), got some good ground time on Dober and subbed him, ran Camacho on the ground, back-packed Klose for the entirety of the 1st round, has now out-wrestled CDF twice to decision wins (another high-level black belt) and drudged Tony Ferguson on the mat. He also outwrestled Jim Miller back in the day and subbed Tony Martin who is also a black belt.
Throughout his career, the only guy to really have any grappling success on him was Chiesa back in 2016 where he made a small mistake and got submitted.
But even in Dariush’s fight against Gamrot who’s a good wrestler and fellow black belt, Dariush stuffed 15/19 shots and was only controlled for two minutes – pretty impressive. Statistically, he lands 1.9 TDs per 15 minutes at 34%, stuffs at 81% and is in control time positions 82% of the time his fights are spent grappling.
Overall, Dariush is a top five ground fighter in this division and it’s going to take an elite talent to best him on the floor.
Moicano’s a solid BJJ black belt and has finished six of his 12 UFC wins via submission.
He’s not necessarily consistent to wrestle given certain style matchups but he does land 1.82 TDs per 15 minutes at 44%. I more so attribute his lack of willingness to wrestle to the quality of defense of some of the guys he’s fought, like Fiziev, Jung, Aldo, Kattar, etc. Not to mention he’s had standing advantages over a handful of guys as well – his numbers need to be put into that context.
But he has been consistent to wrestle in the spots where it’s been advantageous for him to do so. When he’s committed to shots and that’s the game plan he’s pursuing, he’s getting guys down.
When on the ground, his top game is high level between technical passing, transitions, positional control and a dangerous sub game.
Despite referencing his top game, multiple opponents have worked up under him before, but he’s been persistent. He did get submitted by Ortega which was more a fight IQ thing with Moicano – we also know that Ortega is one of the more dangerous grapplers in the UFC as well.
He did get outwrestled by RDA, but not a ton of shame given the circumstance – although RDA took him down three times and got six minutes of control through the first 10 minutes when Moicano was perceivably the freshest, which can’t be ignored.
Dober also took him down once in the 2nd round and Moicano didn’t work up, also eating GNP – not a great look. Makhachev just submitted him quickly.
So, despite him stuffing TDs at 71% (pretty respectable mark), he hasn’t been proactively wrestled much and hasn’t looked great on the bottom the most recent times he’s been there.
Overall though, he’s a very well-rounded, higher-level guy on the floor that opponents don’t want on top of them.
How it plays out: The floor is also interesting here given how high-level both guys are on the mat and the amount of success they’ve had in their respective careers. I think Moicano is a bit better transitionally as a grappler, but Dariush is one of the best overall ground fighters Moicano has fought, who’s very difficult to not only take down but hold down. While I highly rate Moicano’s ground game, the guys he’s out grappled in the UFC aren’t of the same level as Dariush and have also been primary base strikers in fact. So, on the flip side of the coin, what happens if Dariush is able to get Moicano down? As noted, I don’t like how Moicano has looked on the bottom the last few times he’s been put there. So, it’s a weird dynamic to analyze generally but also in how much both guys are actually going to pursue. I do think Moicano is the more likely party to shoot though. There’s theoretical upside to both.
I love this fight as I’ve been a fan of both guys over the years in what they bring to the table so in putting them together, it’s just a great matchup stylistically. Despite the skid of Dariush and the winning streak of Moicano, to me, this is a very high-variance fight where I don’t know how anyone could be really confident in a side. With that, I’m going to take Dariush for the upset because I think his skillset and historic body of work poses some pretty large issues to Moicano here. Maybe Dariush’s chin is completely dust and Moicano gets his first distance-based KO of his career, or finds the back at some point, but Dariush is a really tricky matchup for him and I think he’s getting slept on this week.
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On DraftKings, I definitely think there’s potential for this fight to score well, though both fighters are very high-level and may possibly neutralize each other as well.
The looming caveat on both sides is the durability – both fighters have suffered brutal knockout losses and are largely considered to have terrible chins. More recently, it’s been Dariush who’s suffered those losses but even in Moicano’s recent wins, as Luke pointed out, Moicano has still been badly hurt.
So just on that basis alone, we might get a knockout. I don’t think Dariush is highly likely to knock Moicano out on skill set alone, and Moicano has never knocked an opponent out at distance, but both men have chin issues and so a KD wouldn’t be a surprise either way. The fight itself is -135 to end ITD.
On the mat, both are elite black belts. I think Dariush is the better wrestler but I’d be pretty surprised if either could sub the other unless they are extremely hurt or tired. So I’m not 100% convinced that we will get a dominant finish and a huge DK result.
Dariush is priced down to 7.8k though and despite his recent losses, I think he’s a bit undervalued in this spot and I don’t mind targeting him for win equity purposes. He’s an elite fighter who likely should be 50/50 or better in this matchup outside of the chin issues, and he arguably has more KO power and more wrestling upside of the two.
We’ve also seen the betting line move toward as he was lined at +140 in the original matchup, and now sits at +100. He likely will close as a slight value compared to his DK price tag.
So in that sense, I like Dariush as a value based secondary target who has some KO and wrestling equity to boot. I’m not necessarily counting on a finish at +240 ITD but it’s possible.
Moicano at 8.4k probably just needs an early KO to be optimal which is tricky because that’s not a path he’s ever reached at any point in his UFC career.
In theory, sure he could have grappling success too but Dariush’s recent defensive wrestling/scrambling performance against Gamrot was one of the best displays I’ve ever seen personally – I would not bet on Moicano to have any extended grappling success unless Dariush is hurt. It’s theoretically possible though.
We’ll still get decent volume out of Moicano as well but 100+ significant strikes won’t be enough to be optimal at 8.4k and I sort of doubt he’d reach that type of ceiling anyway. He just needs to hurt Dariush.
Moicano is +190 to win ITD and based on the sheer number of times Dariush has been brutally, and I mean brutally knocked out, it is definitely possible. Moicano is a very competent striker, he’s just not a real power threat typically.
I think it’s fine to roster him as a secondary target in a range which we might gravitate toward for salary relief. I would probably lean toward the underweight side if I had to choose just based on historics though.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dariush by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Fight Odds: Lima -181, Talbott +153
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Lima 8.7k, Talbott 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a disappointing loss as a monster favorite against Raoni Barcelos, Payton Talbott will look to right the ship this weekend against fellow prospect Felipe Lima.
Talbott booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Reyes Cortes Jr. on the Contender Series where he landed 145 significant strikes, attempted 282, and defended 16 of 17 takedowns. Talbott then made his UFC debut in a favorable matchup against grappling dependent fighter Nick Aguirre. Despite being taken down early, Talbott weathered the storm and eventually tired Aguirre out, and finished him on the mat with a RNC.
Talbott then absolutely dominated Cameron Saaiman and landed 79 significant strikes before securing the knockout in round two. His volume, striking, pace, and power were impressive. He then knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri in 19 seconds in a bit of a softball matchup.
You saw Talbott’s skillset in all of those wins. He is a striker. He is tall and long at 5’10” and will push a relentless pace on the feet. He walks his opponents down and really throws everything at them. He will mix in a lot of straight punches, stabbing kicks to the body. He is a good athlete and has power as well. I do think his defense could use some work, but his offense is good and his pace is tremendous.
Talbott is a bit green though, and you have seen it in some of his grappling exchanges, even in fights that he has won. I have seen him taken down, body triangled, and just put in some overall bad positions. I do think good grapplers can continue to have their way with him.
However, I actually don’t think Talbott is all that easy to grapple. He is a really good athlete and he is capable at giving up his back and scrambling up to his feet. You need to have good mat returns or a good body triangle to keep him down. Barcelos had that so Talbott got put in very bad positions in their fight. Talbott still did work up in that fight but Barcelos attempted 15 takedowns and landed 8 of them, and just pushed a tremendous pace.
Talbott at least understands the concept of not accepting bottom position, and I really think if people don’t have good mat returns, he will generally get up or at least try to.
Talbott will be taking on Felipe Lima. Lima is a Brazilian fighter who is 14-1 professionally and is 27 years old.
Lima is 2-0 in the UFC. He defeated Muhammad Naimov by RNC round in his UFC debut. The fight was quite competitive until that point. Lima outlanded Naimov 37-30 in significant strikes and both guys landed a takedown.
Lima then fought Miles Johns and won a clean decision. He outstruck Johns 55-31 in significant strikes, and landed two takedowns on five attempts. He wasn’t able to consolidate a ton of control though.
Lima is well-rounded. I am not sure what BJJ belt he has but he has been training BJJ for a long time. I think he was a purple belt as of 2023. I am not totally sure about that though. He does have some decent takedowns and back takes. He also seems like a decent submission grappler.
I am not sure how good of a grappler and wrestler Lima is though. He has three career wins by submission. The submission win against Naimov was kind of random. He didn’t obtain a ton of control against Naimov and Johns. That is okay as both of those guys are solid wrestlers. However, I don’t know if Lima is a tenacious grappler who will attempt and land a ton of takedowns in a singular fight. He went 1/2 in takedowns against Naimov and 2/5 against Johns. He is obviously a capable grappler but I want to see more of it.
Lima is a skilled striker. He is very fast and has good shot selection and can mix all levels. I do think his volume could use work though. Only landed 55 and 37 significant strikes in his first two UFC fights. He looks fast and skilled defensively overall though.
Lima also looks like a capable defensive wrestler and is defending takedowns at 83 percent.
I think Lima is clearly a talented and well-rounded fighter. However, he generally outstruck two guys in Johns and Naimov who are not strikers. He also had minimal grappling control against those guys on the mat.
So when I size up his chances of beating Payton Talbott, I don’t know if I have enough information to definitively say he should be the favorite over Talbott.
I do think Lima could land a takedown or two and perhaps get a back take. However, Lima doesn’t slap in body triangles like Barcelos and I doubt he will shoot 15 takedowns like Barcelos did. Barcelos also pressures on the feet while Lima strikes at range where Talbott is very good.
I actually think this fight can be competitive just because stylistically, I think Lima is very different from Barcelos. I actually think Talbott can work up here if taken down. Maybe Lima submits Talbott but Talbott has generally been good at surviving. I just don’t think Lima is going to land a ton of takedowns and get overwhelming control like Barcelos did.
So I have a feeling these guys are actually going to strike for stretches where Talbott is surely capable of winning. Lima is still capable on the feet and perhaps he can win a striking fight here. Lima probably has an advantage technically and defensively on the feet over Talbott. However, Talbott has size, volume, and power. I wouldn’t be shocked if Talbott is just straight better on the feet and gives Lima a ton of issues. Talbott is so much more threatening on the feet compared to Naimov and Johns.
So I am going to go with the upset here in Talbott. Maybe I am wrong and Lima just owns him on the mat. I do think that is possible. However, I just don’t think Lima is the tenacious chain grappling, body triangler that Barcelos is. So I think Talbott will minimize the grappling more than people think.
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On DraftKings, this is a bit of a tricky situation because Talbott just got dominated by Barcelos on the mat and gave up a ton of grappling points, while Lima has had grappling success in both of his UFC victories.
It is pretty easy to use some MMA math and think Lima is quite likely to wrestle, and potentially submit Talbott, therefore giving him a solid path for upside.
I do think that outcome is possible. Talbott has some defensive issues once he is grounded, and I think Lima has solid back takes. If Lima can take the back, he could threaten for a finish.
However, I do come to the same conclusion as Tim on the fight as a whole. I don’t think Lima is as likely to wrestle in volume as Barcelos, and outside of an occasional back take, I’m not sold he ends up with dominating mat control.
And if the fight takes place on the feet, I favor Talbott. He’s not a comparison to Lima’s last two opponents who throw little volume, nor is he a comparison for size. Talbott is way bigger than Lima at 5’10” vs. 5’6”, and Talbott has a couple of inches in reach over Lima as well.
I expect Talbott to be landing more and throwing more at distance, and even with some grappling control, I’m not sure it’s enough to swing rounds in Lima’s favor. A competitive fight is still very possible and Lima has some grappling and submission upside, but I lean toward Talbott doing enough on the feet to negate it.
So at 8.7k, I’m not sold on Lima as a DraftKings target. I’m especially concerned as his two UFC wins have scored 72 and 68 points which is not nearly enough. It essentially puts Lima into a bucket where even an extended victory could result in a poor score, and I wouldn’t be confident in him.
I really want Lima to land multiple takedowns and get a RD 1/2 submission. That’s his upside case in my opinion. He is only +400 to win ITD which isn’t very strong, and that number has been bet up from +325 earlier in the week which is also a concern.
I don’t mind Lima as a secondary target, just due to theoretics. He could grapple and a back take could come. I’m not necessarily calling for an outright fade here and I do respect Lima’s game. I’m just not in love with the play at the price, and I wouldn’t want to be overweight, as this feels like a bit of a trap spot to me.
Talbott at 7.5k interests me a bit because he’s cheap and undervalued compared to recent fights. He’s also shown a legit ceiling, scoring 113 and 130 in two of his recent wins.
His UFC debut scored 68 points though, and I worry a victory here is more likely to fall into that category.
I do think Talbott could land a takedown but we won’t be projecting him for much or any wrestling success. Volume should be there, but Lima could limit it due to his own defensive skills, and potentially wrestling success as well.
So the most likely outcome here may be Talbott landing 80 significant strikes in a decision, and scoring in the mid-60s on DK. He’s not a priority for me because of it.
I will play him as a lower-end secondary target though. I like his win equity enough at this price. He does have some KO upside, and his ITD line is actually decent at +240. Lima has never been TKOd though.
I quite like the mid-upper 7k range this week for win equity and upside, so I will want to target it often. Talbott is a part of that range. I do think most others have more upside than Talbott on a base scenario though, so my ownership here will be relatively capped despite picking the upset.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Talbott by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -207, Hermansson +178
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Rodrigues 8.8k, Hermansson 7.4k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really fun middleweight fight here between two good fighters in Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues.
I have always respected Hermansson. He has been in the UFC for about 10 years now with an 11-6 record, fighting very good competition. He has never lost two fights in a row in the UFC which is pretty impressive. He is just a consistent fighter.
Hermansson also just has consistent offensive production as well. On the feet, he has actually turned into a solid striker. He lands 5.09 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.69 in return. He has gone a hard five rounds with fighters like Sean Strickland and is very battle tested.
Hermansson puts up a lot of volume on the feet and mixes in straight punches and a lot of kicks. He uses his length and range well. His striking performance against Chris Curtis was very impressive. He used an in and out game and just skated around Curtis for 15 minutes, outlanding him 100-43 in significant strikes. He also just beat Joe Pyfer in a mostly five round striking affair, and outlanded him 121-92 in significant strikes.
Hermansson is also a skilled grappler. He lands 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and is known for a ruthless ground-and-pound game from top position. He has finished guys like Gerald Meerschaert on the mat. I don’t think his offensive takedowns are great but he can be tenacious at times to earn his landed takedowns.
I also consider Hermansson to have a good defensive grappling game. He defends takedowns at 80 percent and recently stopped all six of Joe Pyfer’s takedown attempts.
Hermansson is just a solid fighter. He has great cardio and has some good striking volume. He is also a fine defensive grappler and has a good top game.
I think the things Hermansson lacks are punching power and athleticism. Overall though, Hermansson is a good fighter.
Hermansson will be taking on Gregory Rodrigues. Rodrigues is an interesting fighter. I think he is quite skilled and well-rounded. He will be a tough out for a lot of middleweights. However, some of his characteristics like his durability and cardio scare me.
Rodrigues is a decent striker. He lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.95. He defends strikes at 51 percent. I don’t like how hittable Rodrigues is. However, he has pretty sharp punches, and is actually very dangerous and definitely has some power in the pocket. He can compete on the feet in this division. He is really tough to deal with early and you saw that in his recent loss to Jared Cannonier. He came out hot against Cannonier and had a ton of early success.
I do worry about Rodrigues’ chin a bit though. Jordan Williams and Bruno Ferreira knocked him out and he has been wobbled or hurt on other occasions in the UFC. You saw Cannonier knock him out as well.
Rodrigues is a black belt in BJJ and a legit one. I consider him a skilled submission grappler. He lands 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of taking the back and threatening with back takes.
I do worry about Rodrigues’ cardio though. We have seen him slow down in several fights.
Still though, Rodrigues is good. He is a dangerous striker and a dangerous submission grappler. He is also extremely physical, and he is a threat to just about any middleweight. He just has some durability and cardio issues.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a close one. Rodrigues is clearly at a power advantage early. He honestly could maybe hurt Hermansson. Hermansson is pretty damn durable but we have seen him hurt before and I consider Rodrigues extremely dangerous early. Rodrigues may just get off to an early lead and be able to hang onto it as well and earn a decision.
I still think Hermansson has some advantages though. Hermansson is at a clear cardio advantage and probably a durability advantage as well. I also just think Hermansson could maybe just outstrike Rodrigues to a decision win. The way Hermansson employed that outside striking game against Curtis really impressed me and I could see that happening here. I especially think Hermansson could do that later on in the fight once Rodrigues potentially slows down.
The grappling is fun here. I think both guys are hard to take and keep down. However, Hermansson could get on top of a tired Rodrigues late and potentially beat him up. I could see Rodrigues have early grappling success as well though.
Overall, there is a clear cardio dynamic here. Rodrigues has the edge early while Hermansson has it late. I think Hermansson is historically underrated though and I am going to pick him to win based on offensive production and cardio.
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On DraftKings, this is another fun fight with fantasy potential though I’m not sold on it being a priority.
Rodrigues is priced up to 8.8k, and I think he likely needs a finish to contend for the optimal lineup. His striking volume and wrestling equity are solid enough, but he has scored 90 and 76 in his two decision wins which is probably not enough.
Wrestling especially I’m not sold is a guarantee as Hermansson defends at 80 percent and is competent on the mat.
So for Rodrigues to hit a ceiling, I think he likely needs a knockout. Hermansson has been finished by strikes a few times and he’s been submitted as well, so it is possible. Rodrigues is pretty dangerous early and carries a +110 ITD line which is strong.
I think Rodrigues is a solid upside target. Especially in the mid-upper 8ks, you can argue that Rodrigues is one of the top targets of the range. I don’t mind him as a mix in or secondary target when you are playing into this tier.
I do worry a bit that the fight will extend, as Hermansson is tough. The over 2.5 Rounds prop is still -150. Hermansson won’t easily yield ground time. So Rodrigues simply might win a competitive decision and score sub 10x, which wouldn’t be enough.
I’ll be happy to mix Rodrigues in around the field percentage but he ultimately falls into the boom or bust bucket.
Hermansson at 7.4k is a viable and potentially sneaky target.
There are several fighters in the mid or upper 7ks who have clear win equity and ceiling cases, and I do generally prefer rostering them when possible. Below Hermansson is both championship underdogs who have some appeal.
I don’t see Hermansson being too popular for this reason, and he also hasn’t won a fight in a year and a half. I’m also worried about his upside because he’ll have a tough time wrestling with Rodrigues and also striking volume may be limited in three rounds.
Rodrigues can be hurt though, which is a bit inescapable. He’s been brutally KOd multiple times, and that doesn’t include his most recent TKO loss to Cannonier. I think he’s the type of fighter who will continue to get hurt in losses, though he’s still tough.
Hermansson isn’t a KO threat really, but he will have some finishing equity. He’s only +560 to win ITD which is poor, but potentially that will just mean his public ownership is limited.
He’s not an outright priority for me, but especially if Hermansson is going to be lowish owned, I think he’s a sneaky tournament target. He saves some salary, may carry leverage against Rodrigues and within this range, and still carries a bit of finishing equity due to Rodrigues questionable durability.
Should be a fun fight to watch too.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodrigues by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado
Fight Odds: Delgado -153, Amil +130
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Delgado 8.5k, Amil 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Hyder Amil’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who’s made good on his first three UFC appearances and in underdog roles – he’s 11-0 as a pro. Jose Delgado’s a younger prospect at 145 out of the southwest who earned a contract on the Contender Series this past August. He’ll be entering his sophomore UFC appearance after a successful debut in February – he’s 9-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Amil’s official background but he’s served as more of a technical brawler so far in his pro career. He’s a southpaw that’ll occasionally throw the sneaky high kick or clinch knee, but is primarily boxing based where he likes to march forward and keep hands on his opponents.
He’s gotten tired in a handful of outings but pushes through fatigue well and can break guys down as the party with just more left in the tank. He’s shown power components as well with six of his 11 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
In his debut, he put Fernie Garcia away in the 2nd round. Garcia isn’t a great talent but has always been known for his toughness and Amil handed him his first finish loss. He also went to war in his sophomore outing with Lee where both guys just threw down in the pocket, and Amil won the war by finishing him in a minute.
But I was particularly impressed with his performance last time out against Gomis who’s a very awkward opponent to fight that traditionally doesn’t absorb strikes, and Amil put up 115 sig. strikes on him and landed at a 56% clip – it was a close fight but Amil was able to do the better work and win optically as the guy marching forward.
Given his more brooding/brawling nature, his defense isn’t often a priority, and he’s particularly susceptible walking into counter shots when he doesn’t have his guard high, which has busted him up in a few spots.
In his defense, the guy’s shown solid hardware and has been able to take everything coming back at him to date.
Overall, Amil’s a fun guy to watch and kind of a throwback fighter that I’d anticipate continued standing success for at the UFC level, assuming his durability continues to hold.
Delgado’s a bigger guy for the division with a great frame, standing 5’11” with a 73” reach.
I’m unsure of his official striking background but he fights in a pressure-kick/thai boxing based style. He flows pretty well on the feet as a switch stance fighter with sound body/head kicks, long combinations and will mix it up on the inside with knees and elbows. He actually reminds me a bit of one of his teammates at the MMA Lab in Mario Bautista – but in a more youthful, rawer sense.
His work rate has always been consistent and has proven dangerous in all four limbs with five of his nine wins coming via KO/TKO.
However, he’s not a great defensive striker. Despite some of his footwork and offline attacks, he has been susceptible to inside counters as he can get caught taking pictures at times. He’s been hurt in a few fights as well but has shown good recoverability and has never been KO’d as an amateur or pro.
Overall, I like Delgado as a striker, especially factoring in that he’s still only 27 years and is at a good camp with many UFC bodies to work with in or around his weight class – he’ll need to tighten some things up defensively going forward though.
How it plays out: Off the top, Delgado will realize a slight size advantage of 2” in height and 3” in reach. The striking’s going to be an absolute war here where I don’t see any scenarios of how it could be boring. Both guys have defensive issues but have also shown to be tough, they’ll throw a lot of volume and present real KO threats. So, it’s honestly hard to call. I do feel Delgado is the more “sophisticated” striker of the two who also throws a more diverse arsenal of offense. However, he’s never fought a guy like Amil who’s also really strong in the pocket where Delgado is most susceptible. Despite touting the toughness and danger factor of both guys, I would lean to saying that Amil has more critical hit upside of the two.
The wrestling/grappling component:
The ground has been a little all over the board for Amil so far in his pro career. He’s not a fighter you can anticipate to shoot many TDs but he’s mixed in some reactionary shots here and there.
Primarily how he’s getting to top positions is either with damaging his opponents, being able to stuff entry shots or winning in the scrambles. He only has 1 pro win via submission as he hasn’t prioritized the submission much in recent years, and is more so looking to land GNP – although he has threatened in a few matchups.
Defensively, he’s struggled with some reactionary shots himself and chunks of the attritional wrestling that came from Sonmez back on the Contender Series.
However, he stuffed 18 of 23 TDAs in what was a taxing affair and despite losing early, he was ultimately able to nullify effective offense and positions from Sonmez to edge out that decision.
He has given his back though on more than one occasion and we did see Gibson take it in his last LFA fight. But it does appear that Amil has capable submission defense as he showed good hand fighting abilities not only in that spot, but in others as well when dealing with front chokes.
Overall, I have some ground concerns for Amil when fighting stronger floor players at the UFC level. But three of his last six wins have come against base ground fighters where he’s shown to be game in that realm as well.
I’m also unsure of Delgado’s floor background but we’ve seen some good and some bad.
In addition to Delgado’s pressure striking style, he’s shown to be a capable offensive wrestler in the open mat with singles and doubles. When on the ground, he’s shown respectable control, good GNP and a choke game with three RNCs and one d’arce choke.
His defensive wrestling/get up game has by and large looked decent outside of his lone pro loss to Mecate, where he was taken down numerous times and ultimately grinded out. He got caught in a few submission attempts as well but was able to grit them out.
It was really the attritional attacks of Mecate that gave Delgado the biggest issue – that fight was 2+ years ago though and Delgado’s 4th pro fight, which needs to be noted.
Overall, given what we have, I’d assume the floor is where Delgado will probably struggle the most at the UFC level, but our sample is smaller and I do feel he’s capable offensively.
How it plays out: Similar to the striking, I don’t have a great read on the ground here as I feel both guys are capable of taking each other down. I think Delgado probably has the better jiu-jitsu of the two if I had to guess but on the flip side, he is the one in the equation that has ultimately lost via wrestling before – although I don’t think Amil has the same control components as a guy like Mecate who ultimately bested Delgado.
On what’s a pretty stacked UFC 317 card, this one’s gotta be at the top of the list for Fight of the Night potential. Both of these guys are dogs that always come to fight and bring a violent style. I ultimately lean towards Delgado as the more youthful, bigger guy who possesses more weapons but it’s not a strong opinion at all and a pretty high-variance fight overall.
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On DraftKings, I’m definitely interested in this one for pacing purposes.
I’ve been quite high on Amil throughout his young UFC career and have already been paid off big for it, as he’s smashed in all three wins compared to his price tag. He’s just a hellacious opponent for many to deal with, and he’s difficult to put out. I love guys who will fight for your money.
And I honestly view this as a similar matchup to Amil’s last one, where Delgado profiles as the more technical, more evasive distance striker. Amil will need to get in his face where Amil should have advantages on the inside.
I think Delgado is likely to have success early as Amil attempts to close the distance and in that, Delgado could win ITD. He could land takedowns. And if he keeps up for three rounds and wins, I’d expect him to accrue a lot of offense over the duration.
If he gets tired at all, Amil may just crush him like he’s crushed his recent opponents. Once Amil gets on the inside, he doesn’t stop throwing and I don’t know if Delgado can protect himself there. Delgado has never fought anyone like Amil so it’s difficult to say.
In general I am fine with favoring Delgado for technical purposes and I do think he’s likely to succeed. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if this fight turned out like every one of Amil’s fights though and ultimately resulted with him getting his hand raised in the end.
Amil is the easier click for me at 7.7k because we know his floor/ceiling is quite secure for the price. In his three UFC wins, Amil has scored 132, 107 and 96, with the latter coming in a decision.
Delgado I think has worse takedown defense than someone like Gomis, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Amil could mix in a few takedowns over the duration in a win, even if he’s not doing a ton with them. He can land lots of strikes as well and he’ll carry some KO upside.
Amil is only +195 to win ITD and I wouldn’t necessarily bet on a finish, but that’s a pretty strong prop at 7.7k. Delgado has been hurt and mounted on the regionals so there are definitely paths for Amil.
I suspect he’ll be popular given his box scores and that makes me a little nervous as well. I think other fighters in this range may even have more clear paths to upside, so I’m not going to be drastically overweight to Amil this week. But I do like him for pacing and upside and I think he’s a quality secondary target at 7.7k.
Delgado is a bit more risky at 8.5k, and the most likely outcome for him is probably a striking based decision.
Even with 120 sig. strikes, that won’t be enough to outperform his DK salary, and in that he could bust.
However, I think Delgado landing a few takedowns in a win is quite possible as well, as it’s one way to deal with pressure. So if he’s landing 100 sig. strikes + 3 takedowns, suddenly that’s approaching a 90-point score and with any control, he could surpass it. He’s also +150 to win ITD and I think a knockdown is viable too.
So I don’t mind Delgado ultimately as I think the pacing of his fight should give him a strong floor of offensive production. I worry a bit about the ceiling and I don’t think I will make him a priority over others in this range. But I’m happy to play into the mid-range this week and I think Delgado has a pretty solid chance to exceed value in a victory, so I will still mix him in around the field percentage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amil by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Vivane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez
Fight Odds: Cortez -242, Araujo +202
Odds to Finish: +375
DraftKings Salaries: Cortez 8.9k, Araujo 7.3k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Vivane Araujo has been a divisional mainstay around the top 15 for quite a few years now but has also been a consistently inconsistent fighter throughout her run, and is at the not so ripe age of 38 years old – she’s 7-5 in the UFC and 13-6 as a pro. Tracy Cortez is a Contender Series alum from the 2019 season but hasn’t been a very active fighter since joining the roster, only fighting once a year. She’ll be coming off another year long layoff after dropping her first main event booking to Rose Namajunas last July – she’s 5-1 in the UFC and 11-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Araujo’s a pretty fluid striker as she likes to use a lot of footwork/movement which sets up her straights and her hooks. She’s not a one punch girl but does have some pop on her shots for the division.
Her pacing is right around the divisional averages, landing 4 SLpM and at 47% and 5.6 DLpM at 47%. Defensively is where she’s struggled, eating 4.9 SApM at 56% and 6.5 DApM at 58%. However, there are few things to unpack in regard to her defense.
First, the discrepancy between landed and absorbed doesn’t tell the full story for her because she’s still landing at a respectable clip and can win optically in certain scenarios.
Second, the large reason why she’s gotten hit so much historically is that her gas tank hasn’t always sustained, and she can load her strikes, making her susceptible to counter shots. It’s in those lull periods she has in fights where her footwork slows down (or breaks down completely) and then she becomes much more hittable i.e Chookagian, Eye and Ribas fights. But in the fresh periods, her defense is much better.
She’s just had a weird run with the cardio because she looked fine in the Bernardo, Roxy, DLR and Grasso fights that were higher paced but looked bad down the stretch against Eye, Chookagian, Ribas and Silva.
Her cardio looked better against Lee, but Lee cardio dumped and Araujo was able to rely on wrestling – she did get significantly hurt at the start of that fight but recovered quickly – Araujo was sucking wind at the end of that one as well though.
I was really impressed with her cardio against Grasso though despite getting outstruck – I didn’t have much optimism for her there over five rounds and it looked pretty good – a lot of those rounds were competitive as well; she was just one step behind.
But ultimately, I still feel Vivi’s an upper tier offensive striker at the weight class WHEN she’s fresher and/or can mesh a full 15 minutes, but that’s been difficult.
Cortez is still a developing striker, but it’s a component of her game that she has improved upon since her regional days. She stands a bit rigid but will fire some kicks and often keeps her punches pretty straight.
She lands 3.6 SLpM at 53% but 5 distance strikes per minute, so she’s traditionally been active when upright. But it needs to be noted that the majority of her work is done on the ground.
Similarly, she only eats 3.1 SApM defending at 58% but also eats 5.4/minute at distance at 60%. So, she can be hittable to a degree in that rigid nature and has a poor tendency to not get her hands back up after she throws strikes.
I thought her footwork and hand speed looked much improved in her outing against Jasudavicius though – granted Jasudavicius doesn’t have any defense and just walked into shots.
But her prior performances can’t be ignored – Melo was landing on her clean, we saw Kish have a good amount of success at space hurting Cortez in the 3rd round, Gatto was winning the distance exchanges and Rose most recently picked her apart which is more forgivable.
With all that being said, she’s competent at space, will land strikes and can hold her own but still needs work.
How it plays out: I think Araujo is the better technical striker here but I’d ultimately anticipate the exchanges to be competitive in totality given that both girls have tit for tat elements to their games and have negative distance differentials. On the macro, I’d give Araujo more upside early and Cortez more upside later.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Araujo has shown to have a well-rounded skillset to mesh with her striking game.
I don’t think she’s a phenomenal wrestler but a respectable one, landing 1.9 TDs per 15 minutes at a 43% rate. Her wrestling is complemented with a BJJ black belt on the ground as well.
She hasn’t proven to be much of a submission threat in the UFC but did threaten both Chook and Lee, and got a lot of submission victories on the regionals. When on the ground, she’s largely positionally sound and is out controlling her opponents at a 2:1 ratio.
One of the blemishes for her, despite her 80% TDD was her getting swept by Davis from top position and was controlled for nearly three minutes to end the round. We obviously saw Ribas find lots of ground success in that outing and Karine Silva realized pockets of success here as well, but Araujo was able to edge out scrambles.
But in general, she’s shown to be competent in the wrestling/grappling realm and it has been an aid in her winning minutes, rounds and fights in the UFC.
Cortez is one of a handful of women in the UFC that comes from a traditional wrestling base.
There have been some points where she’s decided to stand and strike for extended minutes though – most notably the first round against Melo which was very competitive before she decided to get back to her wrestling. She also stood with Kish for minutes.
But in the aggregate, she’s actively pursuing TDs where she lands 1.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 43% and is out controlling her opponents at a 2.3:1 ratio.
When on top, she’s largely proven to be pretty strong and will take the back but has lost positions in a handful of fights. I’m unsure of her BJJ credentials but she has struggled to finish fights – only two in her pro career.
She has shown sound submission defense that we saw on display in her fight with Gatto. She got her back taken twice but was able to work out of those positions and get into some dominant positions of her own, ultimately winning on the floor.
Jasudavicius got the better of the wrestling against her but only went 2/10 on TDs with 3 minutes of control, and struggled to flatten Cortez. Rose recently went 5/5 but only got 6.5 minutes of control.
Overall, Cortez is a respectable wrestler that has gotten the better of the ground exchanges in most of her fights, but she’s not immune to being taken down, only stuffs at 60% and can concede some time herself.
How it plays out: The ground’s a bit tricky here as both are respectable offensive wrestlers but have shown some blemishes on the bottom as well. I’d say that Araujo will probably be the 2nd best TD defender that Cortez has fought to date outside of Jasudavicius, but I’d also say that Cortez will be one of the better offensive wrestlers that Araujo has fought – so an interesting contrast there. Araujo will have the better jiu-jitsu but she’s also the more likely party to play from the bottom, especially if she’s tired – another interesting contrast.
This is a really weird fight to analyze because from one perspective, I actually think Araujo is the more skilled fighter here who’s also fought a better brand of competition. But as per her breakdown above, the main issues I have with her lie within the intangibles. She’s 38 years old, is inconsistent generally but specifically with her gas tank which then in turn breaks down other important attributes of her game. So, you’re playing Russian Roulette with Araujo because you never really know what girl is going to show up. Even in Araujo’s two most recent wins over Maia and Silva, she didn’t win those fights by any real margin and there’s actually sufficient arguments that she could have lost those fights. So, it’s a spot where Cortez may be catching her at the right time but I’d also be somewhat surprised if Cortez just dominated the fight – I think it’ll probably be competitive regardless of the final result. In terms of a pick, I suppose I’ll take Araujo as the dog just in the sense that I don’t think Cortez is “substantively” better than Araujo anywhere from a raw Xs and Os standpoint – she’s just 7 years younger so less carpet dropping equity and has the superior cardio.
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On DraftKings, Cortez feels like a very risky pick at 8.9k and I probably won’t have much exposure to her.
The scary part is that Cortez is a wrestler and therefore carries legitimate wrestling equity. We know how well wrestling can score on DraftKings so Cortez definitely has a path to a strong result. In her UFC debut, Cortez did put up 103 in a decision, so an outcome like that is on the table.
The issue is that in her next four decision wins, Cortez only scored 80, 87, 80, and 75 DK points, which isn’t enough. She’s proven to be a 2-3 takedown type but has yet to top that mark, which is a concern for her upside.
I also don’t think this is the best matchup for Cortez to realize her upside. Only a few opponents have taken Araujo down, and nobody’s taken her down more than twice. Plus, her BJJ black belt should keep her competitive even from the bottom.
I absolutely think Cortez can land 2-3 takedowns and score 80-90 points in a strong decision win. However, I am much more concerned with her upside beyond that point and I wouldn’t be shocked if a win failed to reach 80 points as well. Her lack of finishing equity is a major flaw at +800.
With both championship favorites in this range, and Smith, and Diniz, among others, it’s going to be tough to prioritize Cortez in any fashion. I don’t hate her floor for grappling but I will likely shy away in tournaments due to ceiling concerns.
Araujo at 7.3k is viable as a low-end secondary target.
She simply has wine equity for the price, which is enough to consider her when you need salary relief.
The issue is also in relation to her ceiling. In decisions, Araujo has scored 80, 70, 91, 93, 65, and 71. She’s only +500 to win ITD here which is pretty poor. Also, Cortez having a wrestling background theoretically limits Araujo’s upside on paper.
However, the base scenario for this fight is probably a competitive decision. Araujo could have success in all areas, including landing some takedowns. She is the better submission grappler too. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see her pull off the upset.
Any kind of win is enough to consider at this price tag, though if we got many underdog victories, Araujo will likely be pushed off the optimal by bigger scores. At +200 to win, I’m not dying to make a big investment in Araujo and she rates out a bit better for floor purposes.
However I don’t mind a sprinkle of her as she saves enough salary and can possibly land some takedowns in a decision win. If the other underdogs in this range fail, Araujo at least has a path to contending for the optimal.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Fight Odds: McKinney -169, Borshchev +144
Odds to Finish: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: McKinney 8.6k, Borshchev 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It is always going to be chaos when Terrance McKinney fights. You can always expect violence, and I expect no difference in this matchup as he takes on Viacheslav Borshchev this weekend.
McKinney is 16-7 professionally and 15 of his wins have come by first round finish. He comes from a wrestling background and is extremely dangerous early. He has power and has knocked several opponents dead. I don’t actually think McKinney is a very good striker as his defense is terrible, but he can clearly hurt anyone in the first couple of minutes.
McKinney also showed some ground skills against Fares Ziam and Erick Gonzalez by taking them down and quickly submitting them early. I actually think McKinney is a decent MMA wrestler. He took down and controlled Sean Woodson for the first round quite easily on the Contender Series as well.
The issue with McKinney is that he has never thrived in extended fights. His wins have ended early and so have his losses. Usually if the fight gets extended past a round or so, he just slows down and is very fragile and gets finished. His cardio and durability are clear issues.
I think we can still reliably expect McKinney to be dangerous early in fights standing or on the mat. He can definitely threaten with big shots on the feet or a grappling / submission storm. I just do not trust this guy when he faces adversity though. He is a good hammer but a terrible nail.
McKinney will be taking on Viacheslav Borshchev, who comes from a kickboxing background where he had an 18-2 record.
Borschev has flashed his striking skills in the UFC as well. He lands 5.25 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.47 in return. Those metrics are skewed though as he was outlanded 62-2 in significant strikes against Chase Hooper which were generally strikes absorbed on the ground.
On the feet, Borshchev is solid. He has some good hands and kicks. He is diverse on the feet, and also has power and has won by knockout in the UFC a couple of times. He was hurt in recent fights against Hooper and Sadykhov though, so his durability is a bit of a concern. However, he can compete just fine on the feet in the UFC.
Borshchev’s weakness is his grappling. On the regionals, he was taken down and struggled at times. Furthermore, he was dominated on the mat by Marc Diakiese, Mike Davis, and Chase Hooper. He is just not a great defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 43 percent.
I do think Borshchev’s get-ups are decent, especially early. I mean Borshchev working up is the reason that Diakiese had to land so many takedowns. Diakiese also attempted 18 takedowns in that fight which was absurd. I do think below-average grapplers in this division won’t be able to pull off what Diakiese did to Borshchev though as it is tough to attempt 18 takedowns in a fight and not gas out. Average and above-average grapplers will surely continue to expose Borshchev on the mat though.
I still think Borshchev will actually try to work up though, and he did that in his recent competitive decision loss to Tom Nolan. Nolan actually went 1/8 on takedowns and couldn’t obtain much control time on Borshchev, and I do think him training at Team Alpha Male has probably improved his defensive grappling to a degree.
I also think it is good that Borshchev has generally just been good at surviving in fights. His only loss inside the distance was a late round two submission loss to Chase Hooper who is a very good submission grappler. He generally survives on the feet and on the mat.
That honestly could be the difference in him winning or losing to McKinney here. If Borshchev can simply survive and get outside of round one, he will probably win this fight.
I am actually going to pick it to happen too. I think McKinney will come out hot and he could hurt Borshchev. He also could probably take Borshchev down and threaten him on the mat. I do think Borshchev is underrated at working up to his feet though and surviving on the mat. So I am going to pick Borshchev to survive. I think McKinney can hurt or take Borshchev down early, but I really don’t have confidence in McKinney maintaining that success over the duration.
In an extended fight, I think Borshchev is the better striker. Borshchev is the more steady and consistent striker and I think he could probably put together some numbers on the feet and hurt McKinney. So I am going to pick Borshchev to win. I don’t think it will come easy as I am pretty confident McKinney will be a handful for Borshchev early. However, Borshchev can surely win this fight if he just extends it which he generally has been good at doing in his MMA career.
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On DraftKings, this is arguably the most important fight on the slate and I expect both sides to be heavily targeted by the public.
The fight as a whole is -1000 to end inside the distance and -240 to end in less than 1.5 Rounds. McKinney has fought in the UFC + DWCS 11 times and he’s never seen round three. Only three times has he seen a round two.
Three of those 11 fights have actually ended in less than 60 seconds as well, including two wins and one loss. So McKinney fights have simply been among the best in the sport for finishing, and I expect the trend to continue.
McKinney is priced up to 8.6k and he could be viewed as an outright priority this week. If he wins, I think the most likely outcome is a round one finish. What I like about McKinney this week from a matchup perspective is that Borshchev is somewhat weak on the mat, and he also can be hurt on the feet.
It will give McKinney multiple openings for success, and he probably will have early success. If he wins, he is likely to exceed value at 8.6k and contend for the optimal. He’s -150 to win ITD on the whole.
My only hesitation in locking McKinney in this week, is that I think he might lose. But I still think having moderate or heavy exposure makes sense, simply given his early win condition and upside for the price tag.
Borshchev at 7.6k is one of the best underdogs on the slate.
Pre-tape I was higher on McKinney. Post-tape I’m a little more nervous. I mostly think McKinney can have success on the mat, but he’s actually only landed a takedown in one of his last six fights, which makes me nervous. If these two strike, both can be hurt but Borshchev has way better cardio.
So yeah, it might really come down to that. If Borshchev can get past one round, he probably wins. He also has KO upside in the first round, as we’ve seen McKinney put out cold early in fights as well.
Borshchev is +165 to win ITD which is elite for this price tag, and I’d like moderate exposure or more to him as well. If McKinney is projecting to be much higher owned than Borshchev, which I’m unsure will be the case, I’d be fine leaning into the underdog side outright.
Regardless, I think this is an obvious spot for early finishing upside. Could it bust? Sure. Maybe McKinney changes his game plan or things don’t fall the right way. However, finishing historics and metrics here are elite, and with mid-range prices, I plan on prioritizing this fight in the majority of my constructions.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Usman by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines
Fight Odds: Diniz -309, Hines +253
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Diniz 9.1k, Hines 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun heavyweight slugfest here between Jhonata Diniz and the debuting Alvin Hines.
Diniz booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out Eduardo Neves in the first round on the Contender Series. He has since gone 2-1 in the UFC with his one loss being to Marcin Tybura where he lost on the mat.
Diniz is 8-1 professionally in MMA and has knocked out most of his opponents, generally in the first round. Although Diniz doesn’t have as much MMA experience, he comes from a kickboxing background. This guy has a lot of experience in kickboxing. He fought in Glory kickboxing in its early days and even took kickboxing legend Rico Verhoeven to a decision when he was 21 years old.
You see the kickboxing in Diniz’s game too. He obviously has some skills, hits hard, and can throw in combination. He has some speed and can work all levels including the body. He can definitely outstrike guys in the UFC heavyweight division and he has power as well. When he starts actually landing strikes and gets his timing right, he can pour it on. I also am not worried about him in extended fights either. He showed against Williams that he can strike over the duration.
There are obviously concerns with Diniz though. He can obviously be beaten on the mat as shown against Marcin Tybura. I picked Tybura in that matchup and just thought Tybura was too seasoned of a grappler for Diniz to deal with.
However, I don’t think Diniz’s TDD is that bad either for this weight class. He defends takedowns at 69 percent and I do think he can shrug off the takedown attempts of the lower tier fighters of this division. He was taken down by Austen Lane and Karl Williams. However, he also shrugged a lot of their takedown attempts off and beat them both up on the feet to get the wins.
So yes, Diniz will get outgrappled by good grapplers in this division. However, Diniz should be able to have success in this division considering he is quite developed in one area of the sport. Having just striking can probably carry him to several wins in the UFC heavyweight division. He also can shrug off takedown attempts enough against below-average grapplers in this division.
Diniz will be taking on the debuting Alvin Hines. Hines is an American fighter who is 7-0 professionally. He is 33 years old. Many of his wins have come in LFA against crappy opponents. This guy really hasn’t beaten anyone good.
I don’t think Hines comes from a fighting background from the little research I did. He kind of fights as an aggressive wrestler boxer.
On the feet, Hines will come forward and just look to land some brawling strikes, and mostly hooks. He does have some power. I do think he has a sneaky head kick that he has knocked people dead with.
However, Hines isn’t super skilled or technical. I also really question his defensive striking as he hasn’t fought anyone who can really throw much back, and he looks hittable to me. He also looks pretty slow as well. He looks to have some cardio but he is generally fighting at his own pace and not facing much resistance.
As a wrestler, I don’t think Hines is great either. He has taken down and beaten some fighters on the mat. However, his entries are sloppy and I question his top control too. I also just have seen him in some really sloppy grappling exchanges where I could just see him getting outgrappled in the UFC.
I basically think Hines is a regional level talent. I do think he can win some fights in the UFC via variance as he is aggressive and does have some power. However, I just don’t think he is very good or technical. I really question his defensive abilities as well.
I have a feeling Hines is going to really struggle against Diniz. On the feet, Diniz is WAY more skilled. I also think Diniz possesses a speed advantage. Hines just looks hittable to me and Diniz is precise with his striking.
My guess is Diniz just shows there are levels on the feet and knocks Hines out. Maybe Hines lands a big shot as he does hit hard and this is the HW division. It wouldn’t shock me. However, my guess is it does not happen.
I think Hines needs grappling to win this fight consistently. Again, it wouldn’t shock me. Diniz isn’t an experienced grappler. However, I just don’t think Hines’ wrestling looks great and his competition has been awful. Maybe a takedown lands. However, I think Diniz has good enough first layer TDD to shrug off enough takedowns of Hines to keep this standing and go to work.
So my guess is Diniz just kind of shows there are levels here. Hines will probably need a high-variance knockout to win or show that he has better grappling than I think he has.
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On DraftKings, this fight certainly has finishing potential which means it will be on my radar to some degree.
Diniz is priced up to 9.1k, and although I like him some, I do think he likely needs a first round KO to be optimal which is always concerning. For context, Diniz won by second round KO and only scored 91, and his most recent decision win only scored 54 points.
Given the upside of Topuria and Smith above, and Pantoja below, Diniz very likely needs 110+ to be optimal, and I’m not even sure 100-105 would cut it. That’s really scary to me.
The positive news is that Diniz should win this fight, and an early KO is realistic. Hines is aggressive, walking down opponents, and although he’s big and powerful, he lacks speed and technique. Diniz should be able to land on him and I don’t really expect Hines to fight back once he’s hurt.
So I’m going to pick Diniz by KO, but I’m still not sure if it comes in round one. He’s -175 to win ITD and +120 to win in RD 1.
I don’t mind Diniz for the price ultimately. Topuria isn’t a lock for 110 either, and Diniz is relatively affordable. It makes sense to have exposure here for early finishing equity. He’s highly dependent on a quick KO to be optimal though.
Hines at 7.1k has some low end value just due to the variance that exists in this division.
Plus, Diniz is awful from his back and Hines does wrestle. I don’t think Hines is a good wrestler though. I suppose there’s still some potential to land one takedown and win with ground-and-pound though. He’s +400 to win ITD.
Otherwise, he’s just got to hope one big shot lands. I don’t think it will and I don’t really want much of an investment here. Most of Hines’ opponents have been awful and many of them have actually had success at points in the fight.
This is a clear and big step up in competition for Hines and I wouldn’t bet on him winning. But at 7.1k, with a relatively low public ownership, mixing him in around the field percentage is a reasonable large-field strategy.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Diniz by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith
Fight Odds: Smith -1900, Price +1030
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Smith 9.9k, Price 6.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what appears to be a showcase fight here as rising prospect Jacobe Smith will take on aging UFC veteran Niko Price.
Smith is 10-0 professionally and booked his ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series via ground stoppage in round two. He took his opponent down seven times and just beat him up with ground-and-pound.
Smith comes from a wrestling background and was a 2-time Junior College national champion. For my non-Americans out there, a Junior college is basically a minor league of Division 1 for collegiate athletics in America. So although becoming a Junior College national champion is a legitimately good accomplishment, a Division 1 national championship is exponentially more meaningful. So never confuse the difference.
Usually Junior College national champions are recruited by Division 1 wrestling programs who have a weak roster spot in that specific weight class for a year or two, while the college wrestling program looks for a more permanent replacement with a blue chip high school recruit later. That is what happened with Smith, who was recruited by Oklahoma State to be their starter to fill the gap at the 174 pound weight class.
Oklahoma State is an elite Division 1 program and Smith had two solid seasons there. He became an All-American in one of those years by finishing 8th at the NCAA tournament. An All-American is essentially one who finishes in the top 8 at the NCAA wrestling tournament. Moral of the story is Smith is a solid wrestler with a very good background.
You can also see Smith’s wrestling skills in his fights. He has been dominating his opponents with takedowns and control. Smith is clearly a solid wrestler with good takedowns. He can ride opponents well on the mat too and has a solid ability to float on top. I like his wrist traps on top as well. He uses them to land ground-and-pound with his free hand.
Smith is also just very explosive, athletic, and physical which assists him in his wrestling and ground-and-pound game. I definitely think he can beat up plenty of fighters in the UFC with his wrestling alone. I generally think wrestling will be his primary path to victory at this level as well.
Smith also has power on the feet too and has knocked opponents dead. I also think he can knock opponents out at this level as well. He clearly has power. He showed that in his UFC debut as well, as he knocked out Preston Parsons in round one.
Smith does have some question marks though. His competition has generally been poor so he just hasn’t been tested, and we always know it is possible for undefeated and untested fighters to get tested eventually and show holes. I am not sure I trust him as a striker in extended exchanges, but I really don’t know for sure yet. He definitely has some power and is very athletic. He also has some good leg kicks. My guess is that he can use some work defensively, but he does seem to have the right idea to limit exchanges and just land his power shorts and stay out of danger.
I also just haven’t seen Smith tested in many extended fights. He has gone to decision twice and his cardio looked fine. I am pretty sure he can wrestle comfortably for three rounds at this level if he isn’t getting resisted too much. I do think if he faces adversity though, it is possible that we’ll see holes.
Overall though, Smith looks UFC level to me and I do not think he is a fraud. I just need to see more of him against decent competition to evaluate him as a prospect further.
Smith will be taking on UFC veteran Niko Price. Price was last seen in the cage back in October getting outwrestled against Themba Gorimbo. It was a terrible look as Price was taken down seven times and controlled for over nine minutes in that fight.
Price is just a wild man. He isn’t a skilled guy, but he is very aggressive and has big power so he can make things happen.
Price lands 5.21 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.58 in return. He only defends strikes at 48 percent. He is hittable, and has been hurt badly and knocked dead plenty of times before. However, he is very aggressive and can put up a pretty high pace. He can hurt anyone and can occasionally outwork opponents over the course of a fight.
Price is not very skilled as a grappler though. He lands 1.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 52 percent. He can get on top and land some ground-and-pound, but I don’t really expect him to easily outgrapple guys at this level. Price is generally limited to knocking opponents out or outworking them on the feet for three rounds.
I just can’t watch that Price Gorimbo fight and expect Price to beat Smith very often. Gorimbo isn’t even really good and he was easily able to outgrapple Price. Smith is a much better grappler and talent than Gorimbo. So Smith’s grappling path to victory is surely there. My guess is he can pretty much land takedowns when he wants, and rack up control time and ground-and-pound as well. Smith has never won by submission and more so looks to land damage from top position.
On the feet, Price does have a chance as he has power and Smith is still pretty unproven in striking exchanges. Smith would be dumb to extend striking exchanges too much, but who knows what he is going to do,
I do think Smith will look to strike a bit and land his power shots, and he very well may knock Price out. However, my guess is if a knockout doesn’t materialize for Smith, he will wrestle to safety when needed. So he should win this fight as he has his grappling in his back pocket as an insurance policy. So yea, Smith should win this. He just needs to avoid the big power of Price.
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On DraftKings, Smith is priced up to 9.9k which is a massive number, especially in context where the next closest option is Topuria at 9.3k.
It makes for an interesting dynamic because we have seen these heavy favorites be quite popular in recent events, despite the price tag. But with semi-expensive championship options below like Topuria and Pantoja, I don’t expect Smith to be prioritized.
The sort of obvious analysis here is that Smith doesn’t need to be forced in at 9.9k. It is actually quite difficult to pay up to him, and you will need a lot of underdogs and/or mid-range targets to pair with him.
With that said, I actually kind of like paying up for Smith when I can. I worry that Topuria/Pantoja combinations will be the most popular ones, and it’s possible forcing in a 9.9k fighter may actually help you be more unique.
Plus, I don’t mind the fact that it forces you into the mid-range. You’re going to have to get lucky and guess correctly on a bunch of competitively lined fights, but it is very possible that winners McKinney/Borshchev, Delgado/Amil, Moicano/Dariush, McVey/Ewert and Van/Royval score well. So I don’t actually think you’re sacrificing upside by putting yourself heavily into the mid-range.
Also, Topuria especially hasn’t shown a guaranteed ceiling, as many of his wins come in the high 90s or low 100s. Smith will need to smash to be optimal, so it’s plenty likely he’ll still fail in that regard, but he has a ton of wrestling equity and is -1000 to win inside the distance.
Smith is also -165 to win in round one, whereas Topuria is +225. To me, it seems like Smith is a better play outright.
My ownership on Smith will be capped by default at 9.9k, and I assume that will be the case with the field as well. You really don’t have to play him and odds are at this kind of price, he’s not likely to meaningfully separate from the field and from the championship winners on an average night.
However, Smith has one of the strongest ceilings on the slate and I am warming up to those heavy mid-range constructions that can potentially offer you enough salary to pay up to him.
Price at 6.3k is mostly a fade based on win equity. He’s +1030 to win the fight and I’d probably rather get 10:1 odds on betting him than I would trying to parlay him into an optimal tournament lineup.
I don’t like him as a bet either, though he could offer Smith some resistance if he can defend takedowns. Price has power and can throw with lots of volume. If Smith strikes, he could get hurt or tired.
Price just looked awful against Gorimbo in his last matchup and it seems like Smith may ragdoll him. I’m not inclined to play any Price with a limited portfolio and he’d only be a pure dart throw in large fields given the additional leverage against Smith. Not worth much consideration.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Smith by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
Chris Ewert vs. Jackson McVey
Fight Odds: Ewert -150, McVey +130
Odds to Finish: -310
DraftKings Salaries: Ewert 8.3k, McVey 8.3k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Originally set to face Sedriques Dumas, UFC newcomer Jackson McVey will now take on fellow UFC newcomer Chris Ewert.
McVey is from my hometown of St. Louis, Missouri. He is 26 years old. He is 6-0 professionally, generally finishing low-level opponents in round one in poor promotions. He is very unproven in general and has no real meaningful wins. He is also not proven over the duration as he has just been storming quick finishes in all of his fights.
McVey is big at 6’4” and is super aggressive. Some of his recent fights have ended with him crashing the clinch, and landing big, inside, close quarter strikes and knocking out his opponents. He likes to crash the clinch quick and either land his strikes or go for body lock takedowns.
McVey actually seems more like a grappler though, despite some recent KO wins. He crashes the clinch, lands his KO or starts to go for takedowns. I actually do think he looks like a fairly dangerous submission grappler. His front chokes are actually pretty slick and he applies them quickly in transition. I think he is submission capable at the UFC level.
I do question the actual wrestling game and takedowns of McVey. He seems to rely on tenacity more than anything. That will work for awhile but eventually skillful guys can shut that down. McVey can get on top and pass guard, and go to work with his grappling game though.
The issue is that we don’t know much more about McVey other than that. He is clearly very aggressive and opportunistic early. I don’t know how he will look at range over the duration or just as a grappler over the duration either. I don’t know much about his cardio or durability.
I have seen one of McVey’s amateur fights extend a bit but the fight was a long time ago. McVey did show some sloppiness in the fight and got put on his back himself. However, he did still win by triangle from the bottom so it showed he can still be somewhat opportunistic and dangerous after a few minutes.
My guess is McVey will probably show some holes in an extended fight. I doubt he is some defensive savant. However, only time will tell. I do actually respect his danger early though and I respect his submission game as well.
McVey will be taking on UFC debutant Chris Ewert. Ewert is a Chilean fighter who is 7-0 professionally. He is 31 years old and has generally fought low-level opponents in random promotions and Fury FC.
Ewert mostly profiles as a mildly skilled volume striker. On the feet, he can put together some combinations and numbers. He can land some hands and mix in leg kicks. He is okay and has the cardio to keep that volume up. He has some decent lateral movement and can be light on his feet at times. He isn’t bad. He can definitely fight for 15 minutes without gassing which is a plus.
Ewert just isn’t super dangerous though and his strikes don’t seem to be too impactful on a strike per strike basis. He also isn’t an explosive athlete. He does have some knockout wins but they have come against poor competition and I question how his power will translate at the UFC level.
Ewert sometimes invites pressure on the feet too. He will stand vs the cage and shell up, and give up free shots to the body. I still think he is okay as a striker. Volume and cardio can win fights. He also seems somewhat tough. I don’t think he is a real talent though and doubt he will go far in this division.
Ewert doesn’t grapple offensively much. I doubt it will be much of a path to victory for him at this level. Defensively, I have seen him taken down and mounted and I didn’t love those sequences. He does at least try to work up which is good. I have seen some okay takedown defense in other fights and he knows some basic defensive fundamentals. He will also threaten with front chokes on sloppy shots by his opponents. However, I do think he will get exposed on the mat at this level if he fights a competent grappler.
Overall, Ewert is basically just an okay and mildly skilled striker. I don’t think he is a real prospect in this division though.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a classic early aggressive finisher who is unproven over the duration in McVey, vs. a cardio durational striking based fighter in Ewert. I generally always lean towards the latter. Ewert very well may win too. If he can stop the takedowns or survive early and get an extended striking fight, he will probably win and he could win dominantly honestly. Picking Ewert is extremely reasonable.
However, I am actually going to go the other way here and pick McVey. I hate how Ewert backs up against the cage. McVey will surely get his opportunities to crash Ewert vs the cage early and land inside strikes or his takedowns, and get his opportunistic submission game going.
I really did not like some of those sequences by Ewert getting mounted on the mat. I think McVey is going to probably have some grappling success early and put Ewert in some dangerous positions. McVey can take the back and body triangle. He also has really dangerous front chokes. I am going to pick McVey to actually get that early finish. If McVey just happens to have cardio too, he could potentially have extended grappling success too. We don’t know the chances of that though.
Overall, this seems like a fight where we have more questions than answers though. So either guy could win.
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On DraftKings, this is a complete mess, starting with the fact that both fighters are priced at 8.3k.
Ewert is trending as the favorite, so although he’s not going to be a major value at his price tag, he is more appropriately priced while McVey looks to be a bit overpriced.
I do understand Ewert gaining some attention. McVey has never been outside of the first round as a pro, and his game looks highly questionable to me. Mostly, I view McVey as an opportunistic grappler and that’s about it.
Ewert has at least gone the distance, and he’s coming off a decision win in January. Purely based on his ability to fight three rounds, he’s a fair case to be the favorite in the matchup.
I don’t think Ewert is very good though. I don’t think he’s very skillful, and I don’t love how he accepts pressure. I think he can compete OK in some boxing exchanges, and he can occasionally kick the legs, but that’s about it. I don’t see much of a threat out of Ewert in general and I wouldn’t expect him to last in this promotion – plus, he’s taking this fight on very short notice as well.
McVey I highly doubt will sustain success at this level, but he’s more of an unknown and if he can fight at a high pace for three rounds, he’ll have more upside. But right now he’s just aggressively rushing into exchanges and jumping on necks, and that’s about it. His wrestling looks pretty poor and I haven’t seen many striking exchanges besides the ones used to close the distance and grapple.
It is very possible that McVey fails to grapple with any success early, and then Ewert takes over and beats McVey up. I think a TKO stoppage via attrition is on the table.
I do also think McVey could rack up another early submission here. Ewert will allow him to pressure and clinch, and Ewert tends to defend takedowns with a guillotine which is poor form. I have liked his scrambling, but McVey looks like much more of a submission threat to me. I really think it’s possible he just forces an early grappling exchange and jumps on a neck to finish the fight.
You can play either side though, hoping the contest ends quickly. ITD metrics are decent with the fight at -310 to end inside the distance as a whole.
Ewert will rate out a bit better given he’s the favorite at 8.3k, and I would expect him to be more popular because of it. He’s +120 to win ITD and has some knockout upside.
I’m honestly a little scared by him though because he may not want to grapple or have much grappling equity. He’s a limited volume striker at times. So I think he needs an early knockout which is just hard to predict. I don’t mind Ewert as a secondary target but I’m not confident enough in his upside to chase heavy exposures.
McVey I like just as much, if not more than Ewert at 8.3k. The hope would be he comes in under owned compared to Ewert, and still likely needs a quick finish to win at all. Considering that win condition is generally based on an early submission, I think McVey has more upside than Ewert straight up.
It does feel like a risk to attach much of a bet to McVey as his game looks highly questionable, and there’s a pretty good chance he busts. But he’s +200 to win ITD and has only won in RD 1 as a pro, so I don’t mind betting a bit on him for the upside case against another short notice opponent.
This fight definitely makes me nervous, and I’m unsure if I’m willing to take heavy stands on it because both fighters simply may be bad, and may bust if the fight gets past a round. But there seems to be solid finishing equity and given the dynamic of the slate, both fighters feel like pretty strong upside options.
I kind of prefer McVey for early grappling equity, but Ewert may be a bit more likely to win and may still have enough KO upside to be worth it.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: McVey by D’Arce, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)