UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill (4/13/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
Fight Odds: Pereira -124, Hill +108
Odds to Finish: -450
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.3k, Hill 7.9k
Weight Class: 205
The now two-time UFC champion, Alex Pereira will look to cement himself as the rightful king of the light heavyweight division, as he faces another former champion in Jamahal Hill.
Pereira first earned his title at middleweight, with a fifth-round TKO over Israel Adesanya in 2022. It was the culmination of an elite kickboxing career that had already led him to victory over Adesanya, and proof that his skills could translate to championship level MMA, just like Adesanya’s had.
Unfortunately, that championship run was short lived, as Adesanya knocked him out in the rematch to reclaim the belt.
Instead of continuing the rivalry and dragging out a long-winded storyline, Pereira just moved up a weight division where there was new blood. He defeated veteran Jan Blachowicz via decision, and was awarded a title shot for it. Then, he knocked out Jiri Prochazka in November to claim the belt.
Jamahal Hill was forced to watch from the sidelines for that fight, as he was still recovering from a torn achilles that he suffered last July. He had climbed his way through the rankings as well, earned his shot at the title, and won it, defeating Glover Teixeira in January of 2023.
It was a brilliant fight in which Hill was tested, and one he passed with flying colors. And it was only due to an out-of-fight injury which forced him to relinquish that belt.
So, we have an intense fight on our hands here between two high-level strikers who both have legitimate claims to be the champion of this division. It should be a banger.
Pereira is the more simple fighter to analyze because he is an elite technical kickboxer at his roots. He’s a knockout artist, and more experienced as a striker than nearly anyone else in the sport.
That kind of skill set will continue to promote success in the upper weight classes, and as long as he is given striking exchanges, he’ll have real potential to outclass his opponents, damage them, and win fights.
His biggest issue, clearly, is on the ground where he is much more inexperienced. He is a poor defensive wrestler, and a poor grappler. He’s given up takedowns to five of his seven UFC opponents, which has included some names who traditionally do not have success wrestling, like Adesanya himself.
That will always be a concern for me for Pereira, and when he faces great wrestlers, I will expect him to struggle.
He is not facing a great wrestler though, and in fact, he’s facing an opponent who has never chosen to wrestle, ever.
Hill averages 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and has not yet been credited with one takedown attempt. Because of this, we should expect the fight to take place on the feet for the majority of time, which gives extra credence to backing Pereira.
However, the fight game is never that simple.
While Hill has not chosen to wrestle, he’s not unfamiliar with grappling either. He’s actually a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and we’ve seen him end up in top position a couple times.
I’m not going to project Hill to land takedowns, but if there’s ever a time to mix it up, now would be that time. Despite Hill not having strong wrestling, one single takedown could potentially mean a round victory for Hill, and it could even lead to a stoppage. It’s a legitimate path to victory if he can use it.
Hill has had his own defensive wrestling issues as well, so it’s not as if he’s some ace grappler who will surely dominate on the ground. I just feel confident in Pereira having a weakness there, and I consider Hill the superior and more experienced ground fighter. I think chasing a few ground exchanges would benefit Hill and could give him an additional legitimate path to victory.
Furthermore, striking technique in MMA is not one of the most important attributes that you can have. I would argue that striking volume, cardio and durability are more important attributes (grappling as well).
And while Jamahal Hill is not as technical of a striker as Pereira, he can certainly throw a lot of volume. He’s averaging 7.31 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.35 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate.
In that last title victory over Teixeira, Hill landed a whopping 232 significant strikes, which is elite pacing. And he even landed 79 strikes in round four, which is super impressive late in the fight.
For comparison, Pereira averages 5.00 sig. strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 3.65 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. HIs volume is still fine, but Hill boxes at a higher rate, and so at least in terms of projecting how many strikes these guys throw, I think Hill will absolutely stay competitive there if not clearly surpass Pereira.
In terms of cardio, I have to favor Hill. Perhaps Pereira’s cardio is good enough as well, because he did win by TKO in round five against Adesanya, so clearly he has something in the tank. I also felt like he was slowing down in that fight before landing a big strike, which propelled him over the final couple of minutes. And I also felt like he was slowing down late against Blachowicz too.
Hill has fought into the championship rounds multiple times, and he passes the eye test for me as far as late-round capability. He’s not as powerful of a striker as Pereira, but that helps him in conserving a bit of energy and I trust his volume to be there late more than I do Pereira’s.
In terms of durability, Pereira has been hurt much more often. He was badly hurt early in the first fight against Adesanya, prior to winning, and that was one of the reasons why I had noted to be careful assuming he would easily knock Adesanya out the second time.
He was also hurt badly by Adesanya in kickboxing fights. And then he was knocked out cold in their MMA rematch.
The guy is super experienced, yes, but he’s clearly taken a ton of shots along the way. He doesn’t seem to take damage extremely well and I’m pretty confident he can be hurt and finished again. Perhaps his durability isn’t horrible, but I wouldn’t consider it amazing and going toe-to-toe with other light heavyweights will put him in danger.
Hill has not been knocked down in the UFC, and that’s not for a lack of effort. He doesn’t defend strikes particularly well at sub 50 percent, and he’s open to be hit. He’s been cracked. He seems to take it well though.
You can look at that as a positive, which I do in a way, because I believe that it will take more than one easy strike to end the fight. But I also don’t love the fact that he can be hit cleanly, and so if Pereira (or anyone in the future) lands something big and hurts him badly, it will be hard to be surprised.
Ultimately, you can make great cases for both fighters. I’ve seen the public all over both sides of this fight but I think it’s really difficult to confidently make a pick.
Pereira is a great kickboxer and he’s the better technical striker. Striking is his world. He’s facing a guy in Hill coming off an achilles tear nine months ago. Landing some early damage against a hittable opponent, and finishing the fight seems like a realistic outcome.
Hill is a strong boxer himself though, and I like his volume upside better, as well as his ability to fight into the latter rounds. His cardio and durability are also potentially superior, and you can add in the X factor of the grappling too. He’s been fully cleared by doctors as well, so it’s hard to assume he will be impacted by the injury.
I think I am going to take a flier on the underdog here in Hill. It feels like such a high-variance fight so I can’t pick him with confidence, and maybe it’s just a heart pick in general, but I think he has the tools to strike competitively with Pereira and potentially find a finish.
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On DraftKings, the allure of the knockout is going to be hard to pass up at 8.3k or 7.9k, depending on whether you prefer the Pereira or the Hill side.
I don’t think it’s wrong to prioritize either side and let’s just get that out of the way early. Play either guy. Both guys. I really don’t think this is the fight on the slate where you’re going to find your significant edge.
Pereira should be extremely popular at 8.3k, as the main event favorite, with an ITD line of +110. He has early knockout upside, and an early knockout would set him on the path to the optimal lineup.
The downside is that without that outcome, Pereira probably will not be optimal. I am less convinced what a late-round win or decision looks like, as Pereira has not yet shown elite volume upside. His fifth-round win over Adesanya only scored 92 points, which may not be optimal on this slate.
I want mild or moderate exposure to Pereira at least, based on the early finishing potential, but he does have some bust risk in an extended matchup. I think because of this, and because I am picking Hill, I will probably end up a bit underweight to Pereira.
Hill at 7.9k is a very strong target as well, and he has the same five-round potential, with a strong ITD line of +140. He also has more volume upside than Pereira, and he scored 137 points in a decision with volume striking in his last bout. And perhaps there’s some sneaky grappling equity as well.
So for me, Hill will be a moderate exposure target at least, and I won’t be surprised if I end up a bit overweight to Hill.
Again though, this is just my stance. If I had to give a recommendation, it would be to split the fight 50/50 on the bulk of your lineups, find the edge elsewhere, and then you won’t have to really worry about sweating the decision. Doing that with a slight lean either way is absolutely fine as well.
I know there are also people who will take large stands, and there’s nothing wrong with that, you’re just leaning into more risk, which can be beneficial at times. I will likely just choose to take my risks elsewhere on the slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan
Fight Odds: Weili -495, Xiaonan +370
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Weili 9.2k, Xiaonan 7k
Weight Class: 115
For the first time in UFC history, two Chinese fighters will square off for a championship belt, as this matchup between Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan will draw massive attention worldwide.
Weili became the first Chinese fighter to win a belt in 2019, when she knocked out Jessica Andrade in the first round. She followed that up with a fight-of-the-year against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2020.
Then she lost her belt. She was on the wrong end of a first-round KO from Rose Namajunas, and she lost to Rose by (questionable) decision in the rematch as well.
Eventually, Weili was able to reclaim that title with a finish over Carla Esparza, and most recently, she dominated Amanda Lemos over five rounds to take a decision.
Meanwhile, Yan Xiaonan had been climbing the rankings since her UFC debut in 2017, but she suffered multiple setbacks with losses to Esparza and Rodriguez Rodriguez in 2021-22.
She was able to grow from those losses though, and she rebounded with a win over Mackenzie Dern. However, it was her first-round KO against Jessica Andrade last time out that catapulted her into title contention.
And despite Weili heading into the weekend as a heavy favorite, there are absolutely ways in which Xiaonan can compete in this fight.
Primarily, if the fight plays out on the feet, Xiaonan should be extremely competitive and would be very live to win. She comes from a Sanda background and has fared very well in kickboxing exchanges throughout her career. She lands 5.55 sig. strikes per minute, absorbing 3.56 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate, which are very strong metrics.
She has only been outlanded at distance one time in 10 bouts, by Rodriguez Rodriguez, and she has never been knocked down. We’ve also seen her land 150 sig. strikes in three rounds before, so her pure volume ceiling is pretty legitimate.
Weili’s metrics are very strong too though. She lands 5.94 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.44 per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate. She’s also been through some five-round wars, which is invaluable experience.
She’s also been knocked out, which leads me to believe it’s possible that she could get knocked out a second time. I would consider her durability to be strong, but it only takes one shot.
Should the fight play out purely on the feet, I think it would be fast-paced, back-and-forth, and either fighter could have success per round. I wouldn’t favor either strongly over the other, and it could come down to a couple random moments or big shots.
Where Weili has a tremendous advantage, on paper, is with her grappling game. She actually never really impressed me offensively until recently. In her last four fights, Weili has landed a total of 14 takedowns, and she absolutely dominated Lemos last time out.
She also submitted Carla Esparza which is pretty impressive, and her brown belt in jiu-jitsu is far superior to the blue belt of Xiaonan.
Where it’s really tough to overlook, is within Xiaonan’s loss to Carla Esparza in 2021. Esparza absolutely mauled her, landing 170 strikes on the ground in two rounds before the ref was forced in to stop the bloody mess.
Esparza is a good wrestler, but Xiaonan showed complete incompetency there. She could not get up, nor did she even really try. She had no answer. And Esparza just moved from dominant position to dominant position, beating her up.
That was a few years ago and I’m certain Xiaonan has improved to a degree, but how much she has improved is a tougher question to answer. She fared OK against Mackenzie Dern but Dern has poor wrestling, and she was still able to threaten Xiaonan the couple times she got her down.
It’s quite possible that if Weli gets on top of Xiaonan, she will dominate her too. Weili is aggressive, she can throw ground-and-pound, and she can submit people. And now that I’ve seen her land 5-6 takedowns multiple times, I feel obligated to believe in her ground game.
Xiaonan in total defends takedowns at 70 percent, which is OK. I am less confident that Weili is able to get her down super easily, and super often. But once she does get her down, I feel more confident that she may have domination upside, especially over an extended period.
Combine that with her also strong kickboxing metrics, and I think you have to favor Weili in this matchup.
One small counter point is that we have seen Weili slow down before in championship fights. She blew the championship rounds to Rose Namajunas, and in part it was because she was held down herself.
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Xiaonan landing a takedown here or there, though it’s never been a part of her game as she averages only 0.86 per 15 minutes. It’s also possible that she could have superior cardio down the stretch, or at least similar cardio to that of Weili’s.
Ultimately, without that ground domination upside, Xiaonan has a legitimate shot to win this. If you include it, then I think favoring Weili moderately as a whole makes sense.
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On DraftKings, this is the second of our three five-round matchups and it will be a very important fight to analyze for that reason.
Weili is priced up to 9.2k and she’s priced right below two awesome targets, including Bo Nickal who is -2500 to win. That alone makes it possible that Weili may not draw full attention in this range, and we’ll also see other five-round targets take ownership away from her down below.
At the same time, I do think the public will feel safer with Weili than just about any other fighter on this slate, possibly even including Nickal. And she just scored 191 points against Lemos in a decision, which is one of the highest fantasy scores of all-time. I really don’t even know what to do with that information.
But I suppose because she’s fighting another theoretically weak defensive grappler, Weili may very well have some of the highest upside on this slate. And I can’t fault you for considering her a primary target, and a primary target even in this top range.
The downside isn’t even too bad. If she loses that’s a different story, but in a win, even if it’s a fast-paced kickboxing fight, Weili will still score OK. She could put up 100 points. That wouldn’t be optimal probably but it wouldn’t destroy your night.
And if she wins and just mixes in a few takedowns, she could potentially surpass 120 points and be a stand out for the optimal. She’s also -125 to win ITD shows legit finishing upside. I think we have to consider her strongly, all things considered.
I’ll note that I do really like Nickal and Harrison as well, and I will make different cases for them in their respective breakdowns, but Weili is cheaper than them, and arguably safer than them given the five-round potential, and I’d like moderate exposure to her on this slate.
Xiaonan at 7k has plenty of upside if she wins, but her potential lack of win equity is the tougher aspect of getting excited to roster her.
She will rate out as a strong floor play, as the fight is still -130 to start round five. She might be held down for a while but at 7k with five-round potential, Xiaonan could land 100-150 significant strikes. Holloway is still the superior floor play but Xiaonan will rate out as the best option below him in price.
I wouldn’t consider playing Xiaonan in tournaments for her floor potential alone though. I want a win.
The good news is that I do think a striking-based decision could be enough on this slate, considering the projected pace. And although Xiaonan is only +950 to win ITD, it was Weili who was knocked out in round one of a championship fight before, not Xiaonan.
I don’t think Xiaonan winning by KO is a high-rate outcome, but it’s possible, and it’s also possible that she could simply hurt Weili once or twice over five rounds.
I will not be playing a ton of Xiaonan in tournaments on this slate because I am not projecting her to win at a high rate, and I like some other underdogs more, but she’s still viable as a secondary target.
She might also carry a ton of leverage against Weili, who should be way more popular. Garbrandt, Holm and Brundage are completely hit or miss options in this range, so at the very least, prioritizing Xiaonan when you need a punt is a fine strategy, and she is the fighter of the bottom group who I would most often choose.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Weili by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
Fight Odds: Gaethje -160, Holloway +138
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Gaethje 8.8k, Holloway 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
This fight is my favorite fight on the card by a mile. We have the official BMF (baddest MFer) title on the line between current BMF champion Justin Gaethje and UFC legend Max Holloway. These guys are amongst two of the most exciting action fighters in the history of the UFC, and it was never a matchup I knew I wanted until it was announced. This should be an absolute banger.
Justin Gaethje became the BMF champion in July of last year by knocking out Dustin Poirier with a very random head kick in round two. It didn’t shock me that Gaethje knocked Poirier out as Gaethje is a dangerous guy. It just shocked me that it came with a head kick as I am not even sure I can count on one hand how many head kicks I have seen Gaethje throw in his career.
Gaethje comes from a wrestling background, but this guy doesn’t look to wrestle at all. He has only landed one takedown in his UFC career. He also has good TDD at 75 percent and looks to use his wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing.
Gaethje is a pretty awful submission grappler, but it generally doesn’t matter in most matchups as he is tough to get down to the mat. I doubt it matters against Holloway either, who likes to strike.
Gaethje also likes to strike. He is a high pace volume striker who also packs power and has one punch (and apparently one kick) KO power. Gaethje lands a ridiculous 7.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs a ridiculous 7.50 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent.
Gaethje has some solid hooks in the pocket and has some devastating leg kicks. He is clearly capable of producing knockouts and breaking opponents with his pace. I also consider his cardio strong and he has produced knockouts through accumulation in the past, most notably against Tony Ferguson.
However, I still just worry about Gaethje’s style because it is so high-variance. Furthermore, the guy is just so hittable and I don’t totally trust his chin either. He generally gets hurt in fights and puts himself out there to be hit very hard and often.
Gaethje has at least been more composed in recent fights. He doesn’t brawl as much and is more calculated. However, I still just think he is hittable and I think he will get hurt and knocked out again soon.
Gaethje will now be fighting one of the most durable fighters in the history of the sport in Max Holloway. I seriously can’t believe Holloway has never been knocked out. He has never even been KNOCKED DOWN before. This man has logged 93 UFC ROUNDS and has never been knocked down. That has to be a record. Holloway may be knocked out eventually, but his historical durability is basically unmatched.
Other than durability, a trademark in Holloway’s game is his volume striking and cardio. Holloway just keeps up such a high striking pace and can do it all day. Holloway lands 7.17 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.75 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 59 percent. Holloway is a technical boxer and fights behind a well-schooled jab. He is also capable of mixing in occasional kicks, but his straight punches are his bread and butter.
Holloway is actually not a bad submission grappler either and has a dangerous guillotine choke which he has won UFC fights with. He has good takedown defense at 84 percent. He also displayed a decent top game against Yair Rodriguez in their five-round fight. Holloway only lands 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes though so you generally can’t expect offensive wrestling to be a primary path to victory for him.
Holloway almost always looks to strike and that is what I expect him to do against Justin Gaethje this weekend. I expect the striking exchanges to be quite competitive. I give Gaethje the power edge and I do think he can swing competitive rounds in his favor by landing the more impactful strikes.
I also think Gaethje has an outside chance of knocking Holloway out or hurting him. Perhaps Gaethje can land leg kicks as well, but he honestly has not been throwing them as much since he has become a more composed striker.
Holloway is just so durable though, and I expect Holloway to survive in this matchup and be competitive with Gaethje throughout this fight. I actually think Holloway could hurt Gaethje too. Gaethje has been knocked out and hurt so many times throughout his UFC career, and I am almost more comfortable backing Holloway if this turns out to be a war. Also, if Holloway manages to hurt and get on top of Gaethje, I think Max is a better submission grappler.
I also think Holloway is a more technical striker than Gaethje, and I actually favor Holloway to land more significant strikes in this matchup. Perhaps Gaethje can make up for the volume by landing the more impactful shots, but relying on power is not always the best thing to do, especially against a durable guy like Holloway.
I am going to go with Holloway here. I expect the striking to be quite competitive and perhaps Gaethje’s power turns out to be an X factor. However, I love Holloway’s pace, volume, and historical durability. I think all those things give Holloway an extremely high floor in this matchup. Even if he loses, I expect him to give Gaethje everything he can handle. Hold on to your seatbelts for this one boys as this should be a great fight.
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On DraftKings, this is our third five-round matchup on the slate and another pivotal fantasy matchup to analyze.
And what makes this matchup interesting is that if this was a typical main event on any average UFC card, both fighters would be extremely popular. Justin Gaethje is known for fighting at a crazy high pace, as is Max Holloway, and the pair are expected to essentially go to war for 25 minutes.
Because of that, there’s tremendous upside on paper. However, due to the strength of this card as a whole, which includes two other five-round matchups, it’s possible that we won’t see as heavy ownerships as usual on the matchup, especially on the Gaethje side.
I actually think Max Holloway will be the more popular fighter of the two, and he is my preferred target in this matchup due to pricing.
He’s priced down at 7.4k and I consider him one of the more obvious underdog targets on this slate.
Holloway is one of the best fantasy scorers of all-time, and I don’t expect we’ll see anyone top his 209-point score that he put up against Calvin Kattar in 2021 any time soon.
Of course not every win of Holloway’s exceeds 150 fantasy points, but several of them have, and his willingness to throw strikes at an insane pace give him a tremendous floor and ceiling in most matchups. And usually, Holloway is very expensive.
Now at 7.4k, he’ll project as one of the best points-per-dollar plays on the entire slate, and it’s going to be hard for me to pass him up personally.
I do love Max Holloway so I may be biased here, but I think he can win this fight. I’m not particularly worried about the move up in weight, and historically, Holloway’s defensive skills have been far better than Gaethje’s.
Additionally, Holloway has never been knocked out 32 pro fights, and he hasn’t absorbed one single knockdown in any fight in his UFC career. The fight is set at -150 to start round five, and in an extended matchup like this, Holloway will have a tremendous opportunity to throw and land volume.
At 7.4k, if Holloway wins, he is very likely to exceed 90 points, and he has upside north of 120 points. It’s tough to project a result of 150+ fantasy points but he’s shown that upside historically as well.
He is only +300 to win ITD and he won’t wrestle, so Holloway doesn’t stand out incredibly well based on metrics, and given his dependency on striking volume. But, Gaethje is absorbing 7.50 sig. strikes per minute over a large sample, and I’m fairly confident Holloway will land tons of volume throughout this fight.
Even in a loss, I think Holloway actually has some merit. Of course I would prefer him to win and a loss would not guarantee an optimal score, but Holloway could very realistically lose this fight by decision and put up 75 points. He actually scored 78 in a loss to Dustin Poirier the last time he moved up a weight class.
If you simply don’t believe Holloway will win, and you’d rather prioritize someone like Moicano or Oliveira nearby, who both have superior grappling and finishing upside to Holloway, I can understand that strategy. I definitely want exposure to one or both of those grapplers.
It’s also quite likely that Holloway will be the most popular fighter of the bottom tier, and you’re going to be far more unique targeting someone like Cody Garbrandt who is extremely boom or bust. If you want to pivot away from Holloway based on ownership, especially if you plan to target other chalk on the card, I think that’s a fine strategy as well.
But in terms of base projection, pricing and upside, Holloway is an elite underdog target on paper. There are other underdogs who I like as well but given the 7.4k price point, I will very likely end up with moderate exposure to Holloway at least, and he’s a very strong cash game option as well.
Gaethje at 8.8k is the more difficult fighter to analyze. Perhaps he gets a lot of attention given the name value, and his DraftKings history is strong as well. But so many people are going to want to pay up to the 9k range, and there are fighters like Turner and Tsarukyan to consider as well. So I’m actually not expecting Gaethje to be ultra-popular.
I also don’t like him as much as some other favorites on this slate, even though his floor/ceiling combination is very strong.
One concern I have is that he’ll simply lose the fight. Max Holloway is a very difficult opponent and Gaethje does not fight as technically as someone like Volkanovski, nor is his defense anywhere close to as sound.
Gaethje rates out well with a +155 ITD line, which is slightly less than 40% implied, but Holloway hasn’t been knocked down in 32 pro fights so you be the judge as to whether that number is accurate. I’ll take the under on Gaethje knocking him out 40 times out of 100, and it’s possible the true odds are nowhere close to that.
Plus, Gaethje doesn’t really wrestle. Even landing one takedown may be a stretch.
So like Holloway, Gaethje is probably dependent on striking volume, which is much riskier at an 8.8k price tag than at a 7.4k price tag.
The positive is that these guys will bang it out, and Gaethje is a damaging striker. He throws hard leg kicks which could impact the fight, and I think that’s a more likely route to him hurting Holloway than via head strikes.
If Gaethje wins, he probably tops 150 sig. strikes landed and who knows, maybe there’s a knockdown mixed in. That’s only 90-100 points, depending on whether the knockdown comes.
I don’t want to recommend fading the guy because he’s only 8.8k and in any sort of win, Gaethje is going to score well and probably contend for the optimal lineup. But I am expecting multiple smash scores in this range and I am simply nervous that without knockout or wrestling equity, Gaethje’s chances of standing out in this range are slim.
I think I will choose to use Gaethje most when I am in need of salary relief. Mid-range constructions work on this slate and if I can’t pay up to the 9k range, Gaethje is a great target. If I had to predict whether Gaethje will outscore all the winners in the 9k range though, I would guess that he will not.
So if I have the salary available, I will likely take more risks on the grappling upside priced above Gaethje, and therefore he’ll only fit into my portfolio as a secondary target, rather than a clear primary one.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holloway by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Fight Odds: Tsarukyan -224, Oliveira +188
Odds to Finish: -275
DraftKings Salaries: Tsarukyan 8.7k, Oliveira 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Perhaps we will have a changing of the guard in the lightweight division when blue-chip prospect Arman Tsarukyan takes on UFC lightweight legend Charles Oliveira this weekend.
Tsarukyan is very well-rounded. I consider him a skilled striker, and he has developed a very nice jab and controls range well. Tsarukyan lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.91 in return. He is a skilled striker with good technical strikes and he doesn’t make many mistakes.
I also just like Tsarukyan’s defense on the feet. He is barely absorbing any strikes. He barely absorbs any head strikes. He just fights smart and doesn’t get in many high-variance exchanges, and always has his wrestling to get him out of danger. He did get hurt against Joaquim Silva recently, but he wrestled out of danger.
Tsarukyan is also a fantastic wrestler and that will be his primary skill set. He lands 3.40 takedowns per 15 minutes and is also very good defensively, defending takedowns at 75 percent. He has only conceded takedowns to Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot.
Tsarukyan’s takedowns are awesome, and he can chain one takedown into another. He can also hold people down, and he obtained nearly nine minutes of control against Matt Frevola. He can also wrestle for fifteen minutes at a hard pace. He landed 10 total takedowns against Matt Frevola and absolutely dominated him. It was a great performance. I was also really impressed with his seven takedown performance against Damir Ismagulov.
Tsarukyan is simply a good round winner. He is generally in control, both in the striking and the wrestling. He has two professional losses and both have been close, and come against elite competition. He doesn’t seem to have durability issues and he has never been submitted in his career. I quite like his ability to stifle submissions from top position and did so effortlessly against Davis Ramos and Joel Alvarez.
Tsarukyan will be taking on former UFC Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. Oliveira is a finisher through and through. He generally thrives with his submissions, and he uses a very opportunistic and aggressive grappling game. He lands 2.32 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a pretty solid takedown artist. He is dangerous when he gets on top and is always looking for the finish.
Oliveira only defends takedowns at 55 percent though. He isn’t a horrific defensive wrestler but he can be taken down. On his back, he is still very threatening with his submission attempts and sweeps. However, I don’t think he is as dangerous on his back as he is in top position and in transition.
Oliveira has really improved his striking and is a true knockout threat now. He lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.19 in return. He hits hard from a strike per strike basis and has several knockouts and knockdowns in his recent run. He is dangerous with his aggressiveness and muay thai game. He can land knees, elbows, punches, etc.
However, I do think Oliveira is suspect defensively. He only defends strikes at 51 percent and I borderline consider him a liability, defensively on the feet. He has been knocked down in three of his last four fights and has quit in past fights as well. Furthermore, Oliveira is great on the mat but I consider him weak defensively as a submission grappler. He has actually been submitted in three of his last four losses, and I think strong submission grapplers have advantages over him there which may be an unpopular opinion.
I do think Oliveira presents danger to Tsarukyan just as Oliveira presents danger to anyone. Oliviera could hurt Tsarukyan with his aggressive muay thai game. Oliveira landing something big in close quarters or locking in a submission in transition does seem reasonable. I just think Oliveira can basically finish anyone in the sport, so I will never rule that out.
However, Tsarukyan is just better as a round winner. I consider Tsarukyan a better round winning striker just because he is so much better at controlling range, and he’s better defensively. I also think Tsarukyan can land takedowns and control top position, as I really like the submission defense of Tsarukyan overall. It is also just nice that Tsarukyan likely has the option of wrestling out of danger too.
I also just think there is a really good chance Tsarukyan hurts Oliveira. Oliveira is so hittable, and Tsarukyan is very accurate and hits hard. Furthermore, Tsarukyan has ground and pound as well, and I could see him hurting Oliveira on the mat.
I just overall think Tsarukyan is a much better round winner and probably more likely to win inside the distance because he is the superior defensive fighter. So I think the current line is reasonable. It is always tough to be fully confident in anyone against Oliveira though, as Oliveira is one of the best finishers in UFC history.
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On DraftKings, I’m actually having a tougher time with this matchup because both of these fighters rate out extremely well individually, but paired against each other, I’m a bit worried about them neutralizing each other.
Oliveira is the underdog and priced at 7.5k, and like Holloway, I consider him to be one of the more obvious underdogs on the slate.
Oliveira is an elite finisher, an elite submission grappler, and a dangerous striker. If he wins, it will almost certainly come early in the fight, and it could be via knockout or submission. Tsarukyan has not lost ITD in the UFC, but he’s been rocked before, and I do think him getting hurt is possible.
And if Tsarukyan is able to have success via wrestling, which is the most likely outcome, he’ll still have to deal with Oliveira’s grappling threat. A submission is possible in that sense too.
Oliveira is +200 to win ITD and he’s won 12 of his last 13 fights against largely elite competition. It wouldn’t be crazy to prioritize Oliveira for his finishing upside and price, and he’s definitely someone I want exposure to on this slate. He should be fairly popular publicly.
My issue is just that it’s a tough matchup for Oliveira too.. I’m not sure that he wins this fight at a high rate and I think Tsarukyan is a future champion. Tsarukyan is a great wrestler and will be the better wrestler in this matchup, and he can crack with his hands as well.
I don’t think I can invest super heavily into Oliveira for that reason because despite his baseline skill and good price tag, Tsarukyan has the tools on paper to neutralize him.
Conversely, Tsarukyan’s upside at 8.7k is worth a debate. His box scores are tremendous and he has multiple paths to victory, with the primary one coming on the mat.
Any time a fighter can wrestle at a high rate, I am interested, and we’ve seen Tsarukyan land 10 takedowns in a fight before and top 125 points. He can definitely outwrestle Oliveira.
But can he do anything with those takedowns, or is he just going to be defending for his life? Without the ability to clearly land strikes on the mat and threaten for a submission, I am nervous that Tsarukyan won’t reach a ceiling.
I also think there’s a chance Tsarukyan chooses to strike here at a higher rate than normal, rather than choosing to wrestle and entangle himself with Oliveira. He may have some knockdown equity but I can’t pick him to KO Oliveira at a high rate.
Tsarukyan still rates out very well for finishing upside on paper, with a +105 line to win ITD. That’s very strong, though finishing Oliviera would be the best result of his career by a mile.
Because of that and his base style, Tsarukyan still could be viewed as a very strong target at 8.7k and based on his DK history, I am expecting him to be quite popular. I’m unsure if I’ll be able to match the field here, but given his affordability, skill set and metrics, I still consider Tsarukyan a worthwhile fantasy option.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tsarukyan by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
Fight Odds: Nickal -2188, Brundage +1101
Odds to Finish: -1600
DraftKings Salaries: Nickal 9.5k, Brundage 6.7k
Weight Class: 185
One of the UFCs hottest prospects, Bo Nickal will be looking to add another win to his resume on Saturday against Cody Brundage.
Nickal, for those unfamiliar, won the NCAA D1 wrestling championships three times, with a career record of 120-3, but fell short of making the Olympic team in 2020 due to the insane level of competition within his weight division, and later transitioned to mixed martial arts. He also has a Hodge Trophy under his belt, and is arguably considered one of the best collegiate wrestlers of all-time.
Now, he’s making a run at MMA, but he only holds a professional record of 5-0 and is still very green in the game.
Prior to debuting in the UFC, Nickal made a couple of appearances on the Contender Series, and destroyed both of those opponents in a minute. His wrestling and top game led to utter domination, and he even showcased some solid jiu-jitsu with a triangle transition in his second bout.
Nickal then made his UFC debut against Jamie Pickett, a pretty low-level talent, and submitted him in the first couple of minutes. The fight played out awkwardly with Nickal landing a takedown after kneeing Pickett in the groin, and once on top, he easily advanced position and locked up a submission.
Most recently, Nickal decided to stand and bang, and knocked out his opponent Val Woodburn, another low-level talent, in just 38 seconds.
There is no ceiling or limitation on what Nickal can be in professional MMA. It’s possible that if Nickal was fighting the champion of this weight division on Saturday, he would dust him too. That’s how impactful Nickal’s base as a wrestler is.
However, it’s also possible that the attributes within his game, excluding the wrestling, aren’t yet polished enough to consistently beat the top tier of the division.
We’ve seen it time and time again, but until fighters are pushed and forced into extended matchups, we don’t know what their cardio looks like. Sure, Nickal might be able to wrestle over and over for 15 minutes, and push an insane pace, but until we see that within MMA, it is officially an unknown.
As is his striking. Yes, knocking out an opponent in 38 seconds is cool, but I’m highly skeptical of whether he can consistently win range exchanges at this level. Can he take any damage either? I’m not sure, as he’s only absorbed three total significant strikes in his last four fights. For the vast majority of his life, Nickal wasn’t training to be a striker, and it’s important to remember that.
He’s also a blue belt in jiu-jitsu. Granted, I would bet on his actual ground skills superseding that belt level, but it’s not as if he’s a lock to easily smash any opponent whom he takes down.
With only six minutes of professional cage time, we are still playing the wait and see game with Nickal. We can make our guesses, but who Nickal is as a full product is largely unknown.
Still, you can gauge what the public believes him to be as he currently sits north of -2000 to beat Cody Brundage on Saturday.
Brundage is not a fighter who I am particularly high on, and I’m fine that the UFC has chosen to feed him to Nickal this weekend.
It’s a smart matchup, honestly, because I think the biggest threat to Nickal is an opponent who can take damage, get taken down, scramble back up, and keep pushing back hard. That is not Brundage.
Brundage does have a wrestling background though. He was a decent high-school wrestler and a two-time NCAA qualifier in college, but his pedigree does not compare, nor have we seen him have much success with it in the UFC.
Brundage has been able to pull off a 4-5 record in the UFC (including DWCS), and all four of his wins have come in the first round. He has a win by KO, a win by submission, a win by slam, and a win by DQ. The holy quartet.
The recent DQ win was particularly embarrassing as Brundage was getting outwrestled early in the first round, and had his back taken by Jacob Malkoun, who was pounding away for a stoppage. Malkoun accidentally landed a strike near the back of Brundage’s head, which prompted the ref to halt the fight, and allowed Brundage to declare he was unable to continue, giving him the BS victory.
Most recently though, to his credit, he took down Zach Reese, and slammed him on his head when Reese attempted a submission from the bottom.
Outside of some early moments though, Brundage is extremely breakable. Prior to the DQ victory, he had another embarrassing loss to Sedriques Dumas, and was only able to land three sig. strikes in 15 minutes. He took Dumas down a couple of times in that fight, but was reversed both times, and allowed Dumas to control him for 11 out of 15 minutes, without ever landing a takedown himself. Dumas is not a good grappler.
There’s another recent fight of Brundage’s where he landed three takedowns in the first round against Michal Oleksiecjzuk, and that’s all the energy he had. Oleksiecjzuk reversed position and beat him up for a first-round TKO.
Statistically, Brundage is landing 1.8 sig. strikes per minute, and defending at 43 percent. He’s landing 2.69 takedowns per 15 minutes, and defending at 73 percent.
I just can’t really imagine Brundage winning this fight unless it’s a first round KO. I am pretty confident he will be willing to swing for the fences early in this fight, and he should have the energy to do that.
Otherwise, what can Brundage do? Taking down Nickal is very unlikely and even if he could, it would be a waste of energy. It’s much more likely Nickal takes him down and beats him up.
In an extended fight, yes, it’s possible Nickal is completely exhausted and quits himself, but Brundage has already done that multiple times so it surely feels like Nickal has the advantages there too.
My biggest question is really what Nickal’s game plan will be. We see SO OFTEN how fighters with an elite base choose to ignore it, just to test themselves. Take Nickal’s last fight as an example.
If Nickal wants to test himself in striking exchanges, he could win, or he could get KOd. I’d personally prefer he not bother with it and just wrestle Brundage early until Brundage has no energy, which should only take a couple of minutes. The more time Nickal spends on his feet, the more danger he will be in, in theory.
Ultimately, I have to assume that sooner or later Nickal gets Brundage down, and after some brief scrambles, Brundage will probably quit, leading Nickal to win by TKO via ground-and-pound or possibly via RNC.
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On DraftKings, Nickal is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k, and he will rate out as the best play on this slate.
Not only can Nickal wrestle and accrue points on the mat, but he’s incredibly likely to win this fight early, and he has one of the best chances on the slate to win the fight in round one. Nickal is currently -1500 to win ITD and -285 to win in round one, which are absolutely elite metrics.
Combine that with his fighting style and like I said, Nickal rates out as an awesome play with elite upside.
His box scores reflect some of the reality of the situation though, as his UFC debut victory only scored 100 points, while his second win scored 128 points.
There just aren’t any guarantees in MMA. If Nickal wants to strike, it could lead to an extended matchup, and a bust DK score. Or, Nickal could grapple, land one takedown, find an immediate choke, look super impressive in real life, and only score 97 points.
OR, Nickal could wrestle early, land three takedowns, eventually control Brundage, beat him up for three minutes and score 130 points.
I think we need to factor in the elite ceiling of Nickal here, but also note that an impressive victory does not always result in a guaranteed optimal score.
Obviously, I like Nickal on this slate to some degree. He is very expensive at 9.5k, but has probably the best floor on the slate in a win, and an elite ceiling as well. If you can afford him, it’s going to be hard to pass up on him for his fantasy potential.
There is also the ownership factor. On a typical slate, Nickal would be ultra chalk. On this slate, I’m not so sure. Harrison rates out really well below him, and there are three other five-round fights on the slate that should absorb a ton of ownership.
I’m still expecting Nickal to be highly owned but I doubt it’s excruciatingly high given the strength of this slate, and I’m not too worried about prioritizing him outright, if that’s what you want to do.
And if you can’t afford him, or want to pivot away and leave some salary on the table, hoping to be more unique, I think that’s a perfectly acceptable strategy. You still have multiple outs there, even if Nickal smashes in real life. Others in this range might smash too, beat him, or it’s possible he just priced out of the optimal based on which underdogs win.
Ultimately, there’s no right or wrong answer. I’ll aim to play Nickal moderately most likely, as will the field. I will also very likely make plenty of lineups that are more mid-range focused and do not have the salary to pay up, which is fine as well.
Brundage at 6.7k is closer to a fade than anything else, as a +1000 or worse underdog.
The counterpoint would be that if Brundage wins, it probably comes in round one, at a low ownership percentage, with tons of leverage against Nickal, and he’ll likely be optimal. We just saw the cheapest fighter on last week’s card win by KO and make the optimal.
And as I mentioned earlier, we do not know enough about Nickal to firmly say that X, Y or Z cannot occur. Maybe he will strike and get hurt early, that is possible.
I still tend to lean against that. And there are just so many other strong underdog options on this slate that Brundage is so far down my priority list, even with a large number of lineups.
Using a very small percentage of Brundage as a complete punt with a large portfolio is fine, but I can’t recommend anything more than that, and I will likely avoid him completely personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nickal by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
UNDERCARD
Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Fight Odds: Rakic -110, Prochazka -104
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Rakic 8.2k, Prochazka 8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jiri Prochazka hasn’t been the most active guy since entering the UFC back in 2020, having dealt with a handful of injuries. But he’ll be looking to rebound from his title loss this past November to get his name back in the hat – he’s 3-1 in the UFC and 29-4-1 as a pro. Aleksandar Rakic will be returning from a two-year layoff after blowing his knee out against Jan Blachowicz back in 2022 – he’s 6-2 in the UFC and 14-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Prochazka is a pretty interesting guy. He’ll switch stances, fight with his hands at his sides, throw from weird angles and has the nuclear power option.
I would also say that despite all his success, he’s really more of a guy who seems to fight to entertain.
In his UFC debut against Oezdemir, he dropped the first round as he got outlanded at distance and was hurt twice – but later rocked Oezdemir with a head kick and followed up to put him down – but he overall was losing that fight.
Against Reyes, he got rocked with a straight left and was actually flash KO’d from an up kick from Reyes on bottom (he’s admitted to this in interviews), but his shots coming from those weird angles gave a conventional kickboxer in Reyes some big issues. The damage piled up for Jiri and he landed that nasty spinning elbow putting Reyes down in the 2nd.
Against Teixeira, he out landed him 76 to 45 at distance and was able to hurt him numerous times with damage, accumulating as the fight went on.
Most recently against Pereira, the distance exchanges were competitive to a degree, but the technicality and kicks of Pereira gave him some bigger issues to where he eventually got caught with his hooks coming in.
Defensively, despite his movement patterns, he’s pretty atrocious as he relies solely on that movement and slipping punches as his line of defense, so he gets hit clean pretty often.
To his credit though, he has proven very durable throughout his longer career, but that bill came due last time out.
Overall, Jiri will continue to be a tough out based on his unorthodox nature and power components, but he isn’t invincible.
Rakic is a bigger 205er who works in a more fluid, kickboxing-esque type of style.
Statistically, he lands 4.01 sig. strikes per minute at 50% accuracy, which is an okay rate, but he’s definitely been in some slower paced affairs as well. Rakic has also shown power components with a 64% KO rate as a pro.
In the UFC, we’ve seen him score some vicious KOs with his hands against Clark, and he landed one of the nicer punch/head kick combos ever against Manuwa. He also significantly compromised Ledet and Smith with leg kicks.
With that, the guy has a diverse arsenal in what he can throw while also being effective.
Outside of his power, Rakic is also fast and a good athlete for 205 lbs. But I’d say the main issue I’ve had with Rakic over the years has been his striking defense at 53%.
He can limit damage but there are points in multiple fights where it has lapsed.
It hasn’t been overtly tested given some quicker finishes and heavy grinding, but he does have a tendency to get reckless at points. He can leave himself exposed on pocket entry and he has gotten his legs chewed up in a few fights.
We also saw him get dropped by Clark, though he was able to recover quickly. He does still have a positive distance differential of +0.99/minute though.
Overall, Rakic is a respectable striker, but I do feel he’s going to get KO’d one of these days now that he’s starting to swim at the elite level of the division.
How it plays out: Assessing the stand up in Prochazka fights is always difficult due to his unorthodox nature, which doesn’t aid in benchmarking. Really, the primary questions are whether Rakic can slow the pace down, and whether he can avoid getting clipped? Rakic has fought historic power threats in the past, but none have fought him at a particularly high pace. My strong assumption is that Rakic isn’t the type of fighter who’s going to do well in more brawling based pocket scenarios. Despite Rakic showing some power components in the past and Prochazka having very little defense, I still feel Prochazka has a lot more KO equity. The guys who Rakic has hurt/finished in the UFC aren’t very impressive – Clark gets finished in all of his losses essentially, Manuwa retired after their fight and Ledet/Smith don’t check leg kicks. But based on pure technicality, Rakic can definitely compete on minutes here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Prochazka will occasionally wrestle, but the majority of guys he’s fighting have been wrestling/grappling-based fighters, so he’s generally looking to keep fights upright.
However, he can be outwrestled and his defensive grappling is not very good.
We saw him get controlled by Albrektsson, King Mo and even Halsy. He’s very content to just turtle over and give his back to stand – pretty poor characteristics despite none of his opponents being able to capitalize.
We saw the exact same thing in his fight with Reyes where he was taken down early and gave his back, but Reyes wasn’t quick enough in the transition to get his hooks in and Jiri was able to stand up.
He was able to survive the ground exchanges with Teixeira though which I found impressive, but he was still taken down five times, gave up numerous poor positions and did lose rounds on the floor.
He eventually submitted Teixeira in the fifth round which was an outcome I don’t think anyone anticipated, but that was also partially due to Teixeira being exhausted in the back half of the fight, which also led to Teixeira losing positions as well.
Based on numerous fights now, Jiri relies on explosion and not technique to stand up which is a gigantic red flag. Overall, the floor is the main weakness in Prochazka’s game in my eyes.
Rakic is a striker by nature and his TD metrics leave a bit less to be desired, as he only lands 0.82 TDs per 15 minutes at 25% accuracy.
However, he’s shown some good things on the ground, most notably in the Smith fight, racking up over 12+ minutes of control time. He’s very positionally aware and has shown to be strong from top position whilst mixing in strikes – we saw this against Ledet as well.
He did struggle to take Volkan down, but pretty much everyone outside of Cormier and Krylov has, so no real shame there – he did get some grind time from back ride though. We also saw him take the 2nd via wrestling against Blachowicz last time out.
Defensively, he stuffs at 90% and has only been taken down twice in the UFC, which was in his debut – he was able to work up relatively quickly on both occasions.
So, we don’t have a super large sample of Rakic on the ground but in the times he’s been there, I like what I’ve seen and he’s been adamant about his wrestling being one of the most improved components of his game in recent years.
How it plays out: The floor is where there’s more merit to the Rakic side. As noted, he’s not a great wrestler but he’s definitely capable of taking Prochazka down in the fight. What I like about Rakic on the floor here in comparison to past Prochazka opponents is that he’s not a super proactive passer or submission hunter. He’s fine to work in half guard or guard to rack up his minutes traditionally. Why that’s important and relevant is that Prochazka often relies on explosive actions to work up or out of positions. That’s not as easy to do from conventional guard positions at the bigger weight classes where more dominant positions can actually be less advantageous in many scenarios from a control perspective. The bulk of the ground upside should go to Rakic here although we’ve seen very little of him on the bottom.
Fun fight that should bring a healthy degree of variance, as not much would surprise me. I lean more to the Rakic side because I think he has a game that could potentially nullify Prochazka’s offense. At the same time, Prochazka is a meme that could just kill Rakic on any exchange here, and it’s also hard to say what Rakic is going to look like off such a long layoff and knee surgery. Variable fight but I lean Rakic via Decision.
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On DraftKings, this is an intriguing mid-range fight that projects to be somewhat boom or bust.
Given the strength of this card as a whole, there are so many strong targets that I don’t think it’s fully necessary to jam this one in if you don’t want to, and I’m not sure the public will.
It does rate out well, with a -190 line to end inside the distance, but neither side is an obvious stand out and I do think there’s a chance both sides come in lower owned than expected because of that.
Prochazka will very likely be the more popular fighter of the two at 8k. He’s cheaper, he’s more well-known, and he rates out better with an ITD line of +135. He’s also a flashy, aggressive striker, with KO upside in his style, and he has a couple of monster DK scores in wins.
With Rakic coming off a “TKO” loss, and having been on the sidelines since mid-2022, I see the public gravitating toward the Prochazka side of the matchup and if either side ends up chalky, it will be him.
I don’t think it’s wrong to invest in Prochazka, simply for his willingness to exchange. Rakic has been hurt before and another early KO is a reasonable expectation if Prochazka wins at all.
However, I don’t think this is an incredible matchup for him because of some of the points Luke made in his analysis. Rakic will likely aim to neutralize Prochazka, not go toe to toe with him.
Rakic is more defensively sound, he can throw hard leg kicks which could limit the movement of Prochazka, and he can wrestle. If he has success with any of those things, it’s very likely we get an extended fight, which would obviously kill off most of Prochazka’s upside.
For the price point, pure metrics and KO upside, Prochazka is a decent tournament target, but I think this mid-range is a decent place to be different and I will likely lean toward the underweight side on Prochazka specifically.
Rakic is potentially a sneaky and/or leverage target at 8.2k.
He hasn’t scored 100 points in a fight since 2019, and now he’s coming off a long layoff. He rates out worse than Prochazka with a +225 line to win ITD, and he’ll be more than happy to extend the fight.
Ultimately, Rakic isn’t a super exciting target this week and I don’t think many will be excited to roster him.
However, Prochazka may still force action, and of the two, Prochazka is considerably worse defensively. He’s coming off a KO loss himself, and he’s been hurt many times before. Rakic also has some wrestling upside, which could help him accrue fantasy points.
I still consider Rakic to be somewhat boom or bust. If he wins by decision, I doubt he produces enough offense to easily clear everyone else in this range and end up optimal, and for that reason, he definitely is not a must.
But he’s still an experienced kickboxer with power, and he fights smart at times. A knockout win is on the table for Rakic and it wouldn’t be too shocking of an outcome. If he’s going to come in low owned compared to Prochazka, he would be my preferred side in the matchup in large fields and he could also present a leverage opportunity which intrigues me.
I may choose to take a couple of extra chances on Rakic myself in this range when I am in need of a place to be unique, though there is another spot in this range I like for the same purposes as well.
It’s a fun fight, and a decent one to make a secondary investment given the odds for it to end inside the distance. But the matchup as a whole feels relatively boom or bust, and there are clear ways in which it could underperform expectation.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rakic by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling
Fight Odds: Sterling -171, Kattar +147
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Sterling 8.4k, Kattar 7.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It will be interesting to see Aljamain Sterling move up to featherweight this weekend to face the always tough Calvin Kattar.
Sterling is coming off his first loss in seven years where he got knocked out and lost his bantamweight title to Sean O’Malley last August. Sterling has always teased the idea of moving up to featherweight, and I do think he can make some noise in the division.
Sterling is a fantastic fighter, and I have always been a fan of his style. He just has incredible metrics, is well-rounded, and has elite areas of his game.
Sterling is well-known for his grappling. He lands 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes and is one of the best backtakers in the world. He just does an incredible job of taking the back, putting a body triangle in, and either submitting or controlling his opponents. He has done this to world class fighters including Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. He is just such a dangerous submission grappler, and I think he can have success with grappling against almost anyone.
Sterling is also a fine striker. He lands 4.73 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.41 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent. He isn’t all that dangerous with power and he is a bit unorthodox.
However, he is such a good neutralizer. He stays out of range and keeps his opponents at the end of his kicks. He will also clinch opponents up and hold them against the cage. He is basically all the way in or all the way out so he is extremely difficult to hit. He has been knocked out in the UFC, but I generally consider him a tough guy to land on, and his durability generally seems fine.
I just like Sterling’s process of fighting. He always has the X factor of grappling upside, and is good enough on the feet and in the clinch to compete with anyone. He is also just good defensively so he is a great round winner.
Sterling will be taking on UFC veteran Calvin Kattar. Kattar comes from a boxing background and that is his bread and butter. Kattar has an excellent jab and is great with his straight punching. He is also just tough as nails and took a historic beating against Max Holloway a few fights back.
Kattar lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.10 in return. He defends strikes at 54 percent. Kattar is a high-volume boxer and also has power, and is capable of producing knockouts.
I do worry about Kattar’s defense though. I think he is susceptible to kicks as he is really just a guy who thrives in boxing range. I am always skeptical of someone who absorbs more strikes than they land as well. Kattar absorbs 7.10 significant strikes per minute which is simply a lot.
Kattar doesn’t really wrestle offensively but his TDD has held up in the UFC. He defends takedowns at a fantastic 91 percent. He does seem to have strong first layer TDD. However, he hasn’t fought many good wrestlers or fighters who have tenaciously attempted to take him down. Furthermore, the few times he has been taken down, the grappling exchanges have not extended so it is tough to get a real read on his defensive and mat grappling.
Kattar is also coming off a torn ACL which he suffered in his last fight against Arnold Allen in October 2022. I’m sure he is physically recovered now but it’s hard to be certain how he will hold up in wrestling exchanges.
I still think it is very likely Sterling has an advantage on the mat. I mean if Sterling gets Kattar’s back, I think Kattar will be in deep trouble. Sterling is just so dangerous there.
Knowing how easily Sterling can get this fight to the mat or how easily Kattar can defend once grounded is tough though, as Kattar’s defensive grappling tape is a bit minimal. I still am leaning towards Sterling having grappling success here though as I just think highly of that area of his game. So favoring Sterling because of potential grappling upside alone seems reasonable.
If this fight stays on the feet though, Kattar could win. He has more power in his hands and could maybe hurt Sterling. However, I am not even sure I favor Kattar standing in this matchup. Sterling is better defensively and better at neutralizing. I also like Sterling more in kicking range. So if Sterling can’t even get takedowns, he still may win.
So I am going to go with Sterling here. I think he has grappling upside, even if it is hard to confidently quantify how often he can have success doing it. I also think he has a chance to win rounds on the feet.
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On DraftKings, I do think there is fantasy potential here, but I’m not convinced the winner will reach the optimal lineup.
Sterling has the better fantasy base at 8.4k, and he will be my preferred play in the matchup. He’s not a grappling dependent fighter per se, but grappling is his primary method of controlling the fight, and that’s where the majority of his upside lies.
If Sterling can land takedowns, take the back, land strikes, and choke Kattar out, he can put up a smash score. And he is capable of that. He’s done it many times at bantamweight.
For that reason, I think Sterling is certainly in consideration at 8.4k. Even if he doesn’t win ITD, if he can use his grappling to control rounds, Sterling can exceed value and potentially contend for the optimal lineup.
My primary fear is that Sterling won’t actually be able to dominate on the ground. Kattar has a 91 percent takedown defense and will scramble pretty hard. I don’t see Sterling being able to control him easily without taking the back, and I’m not convinced Sterling will sell out for takedowns.
Especially early, I can easily picture Sterling taking his time, striking at distance, and minimizing exchanges. And if the matchup gets extended without grappling domination early, I don’t think it’s likely Sterling can reach his ceiling. He is +275 to win ITD in this matchup which is respectable, but doesn’t suggest a submission is anything close to a guarantee.
For the price, Sterling is still an easy mix-in if you want him to be. There isn’t a ton of downside with using Sterling as a secondary target at 8.4k, and in a win, even if it’s not via grappling domination, he should score comfortably.
I am aiming for absolute smash scores though, and because of that, I don’t plan on being super aggressive with Sterling. I will mix him in for salary purposes and for his grappling base, but I am leaning against using him as a primary target in tournaments.
Kattar at 7.8k is probably knockout or bust, and a knockout is the most realistic outcome where Kattar would end up optimal.
Sterling is coming off a knockout loss, and stepping up a weight class, so it is possible. Kattar is a good boxer and hits very hard.
However, Sterling is just a terrible matchup for fantasy purposes and so I’m generally inclined to avoid targeting fighters against him. He doesn’t absorb many strikes and his striking defense at distance is strong. He’ll try to wrestle and control Kattar at times.
It puts Kattar in a situation where he’ll need to chase Sterling around, and that will definitely limit his ability to land a high number of total strikes. Even in a win, if it comes by decision, I doubt he will put up a smash score.
The primary angle for upside is that KO, and he’s only +385 to win ITD here which isn’t great for the price.
I’m not expecting Kattar to be super popular, so that, coupled with the narrative of Sterling getting recently KOd, is enough to put Kattar in consideration as a secondary option.
I just don’t love the matchup for him so I would consider Kattar more of a low-end secondary target than anything else, and there are several fighters who I would rather pay down for who have much easier paths to a ceiling in wins.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sterling by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison
Fight Odds: Harrison -423, Holm +326
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Harrison 9.3k, Holm 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a super debut this weekend when Kayla Harrison makes her long awaited UFC debut against Holly Holm.
In case you don’t know Harrison, she is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo, winning in 2012 and 2016.
Harrison then made a transition into MMA after her Judo career ended in 2018. She has only fought in PFL where she fought a lot of poor competition, but she also beat some decent fighters as well including Larissa Pacheco and Aspen Ladd.
Harrison is 16-1 professionally and won the PFL championship several times. She generally fought in the lightweight division and only had one featherweight fight. It will be interesting to see how her weight cut goes to bantamweight this weekend as this is a major jump down in weight.
Let me reiterate that for a moment. Harrison has only fought at 155 pounds before this week. Now, she is debuting at 135 pounds. It is tough to know exactly how that might affect her, and it’s possible that she won’t be able to make the weight at all.
As you would expect, Harrison’s grappling is her bread and butter as she uses her Judo skills in fights. I have been very vocal that Judo is an inferior grappling art to wrestling in the past as many of the takedowns in Judo are upper body based, which are less effective against good wrestlers. Luckily for Harrison, WMMA is just full of terrible wrestlers so Harrison has been able to dominate women with her Judo.
I do consider Harrison’s takedowns pretty strong though. She can also occasionally land decent double legs as well. I consider her top game good, and she is a fine submission grappler as well. She can also land ground-and-pound in top position.
I honestly think the best part of Harrison’s game is her physicality. She is just such a muscular and strong woman. When you combine that with her grappling game, she is simply going to win a ton of fights. She also has pretty solid grappling cardio.
Harrison’s striking is pretty basic and not great. It isn’t the worst thing I have seen as she is an athletic woman. However, I generally think she needs to grapple to win fights consistently in the UFC.
Harrison will be taking on UFC WMMA legend Holly Holm. Holm is a decent fighter. Coming from a boxing background, Holm is a skilled striker who has learned to incorporate kicks behind her punches. She controls range well and is defensively sound. She is hard to hit.
However, Holm only lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.79 in return. Those aren’t the best metrics and I do wish she was more reliable with volume. Her competition has been stellar though, and she did land 154 significant strikes against Aldana, so she is capable. Holm counters VERY well and I think she tends to land more often when people aggressively pursue her. Aldana marched her down and got hit A LOT.
I have liked Holm’s clinch game for a long time. This girl will hold girls against the cage for entire rounds and win fights that way. She is super strong in her upper body and almost always wins the positional battle in the clinch.
Furthermore, I like the way Holm has developed a takedown game. She uses upper body takedowns to muscle girls to the mat. She only lands 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes but she has been landing and attempting takedowns more and more lately. She landed five takedowns against Aldana and attempted six against Vieira. She was really close to landing takedowns on Vieira but Viera has great TDD. Holm also had good TDD at 78 percent.
However, Holm has always been prone to submissions once she has actually been grounded or put in dangerous positions. Miesha Tate took her down back in the day and easily choked her out. In Holm’s most recent fight against Bueno Silva, she got choked out by a guillotine. I also just don’t think Holm has faced all that many good wrestlers either. I really question Holm’s defensive grappling once she is actually grounded or going against someone who is a very good grappler.
That is why I tend to think Harrison should win this fight. This is a big step up for Holm as far as facing an offensive grappler goes. Harrison is definitely the best grappler that Holm has fought, and I tend to think Harrison will probably attempt a lot of takedowns, probably manage to get some, and finish Holm on the mat once Harrison finds a dominant position. I just really tend to lean towards grapplers in fights like this.
I still think Holm can find stretches of success in this fight. Holm is quite physical herself, and could probably stifle some takedown attempts here and there as Holm is good at defending upper body takedowns and has good lateral footwork on the feet. I also think Holm is the better and more experienced striker and could potentially land takedowns herself. However, I don’t think Holm could actually do anything with a takedown here.
My guess is Harrison is just persistent enough with the takedown attempts to eventually find takedowns and finish Holm on the mat in this matchup.
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On DraftKings, Harrison is priced up to 9.3k and it will be interesting to see what the field does with her because she’s priced in a very tough range.
Nickal will obviously draw a ton of attention priced above her, as will Zhang priced right below her, and I think there’s a legitimate chance Harrison goes overlooked for this reason. If so, I consider her an awesome pivot target in this top range.
I’m actually not supremely confident Harrison is deserving of a betting line this wide, and I have some concerns with her game. Most notably being that if Harrison is not dominating Holm on the mat, she might not have any other tools to win.
However, if Harrison does win, it’s extremely likely to come from grappling domination, including multiple takedowns, lots of control, ground strikes and a potential finish. Harrison is +115 to win ITD which is decent, though clearly it doesn’t compare to Nickal above her.
Without an elite ITD metric or a box score to look at, I’m not sure the public will understand what Harrison’s ceiling is, where I believe it to be among the highest on the slate based on her style.
This slate is absolutely stacked with strong fantasy targets so it’s tough to aggressively prioritize Harrison at an expensive price tag when she absolutely needs to dominate to contend for the optimal. And for that reason, prioritizing a safer option like Nickal or a fighter with five-round potential in Zhang does make sense.
But if we just assume Harrison wins on Saturday, which is a realistic outcome given her -420 moneyline, I think it’s very likely that she will put up a strong score in the process. I feel there is a bit more uncertainty with her than other fighters, given the lack of data, but her game is built around dominating top position and finishing fights, and in that circumstance, Harrison could put up a smash score.
I will definitely be mixing in Harrison when I can afford to pay up this high, and especially when I am looking to be slightly unique, I consider her a great pivot target away from the other two obvious names nearby.
Holm at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. I do believe she can win the fight, but it’s also not the outcome I’m picking.
I just feel that Holm is physical enough in the clinch that it’s possible she could defend takedowns early, in which case, she is the superior striker. But unless a Holm victory comes with an early KO, it’s very unlikely she’ll score many fantasy points.
Holm just doesn’t throw strikes at a high rate and she will be even more limited here while Harrison attempts to control her. Holm isn’t likely to wrestle either. She is only +925 to win ITD which is very poor.
The most positive aspect of Holm should be her ownership, which I am expecting to be very low as she doesn’t rate out well, and the strength of the dogs on this card is insane. So if you want to mix her in as a low-end dart, I can accept that, but I think her floor is extremely limited and her path to a ceiling is quite thin as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Harrison by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes
Fight Odds: Lopes -133, Yusuff +115
Odds to Finish: -165
DraftKings Salaries: Lopes 8.5k, Yusuff 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Sodiq Yusuff is a Contender Series alum who’s by and large had a good UFC run, but has struggled when pitted against some higher-level talents – he’s 6-2 in the UFC and 13-3 as a pro. Diego Lopes is an interesting case study as he lost on the Contender Series back in 2021 but was brought in as a short notice fill-in last May, and made a decent account of himself given circumstance against Evloev. He’s since won his last two fights and is now knocking on a top 15 spot – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 23-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Yusuff is a pretty stocky and long (in reach) 145er who possesses some heavy and fast hands. He’s outlanded eight of his nine UFC opponents (including DWCS) at distance and lands 5.72 sig. strikes per minute with a 49% accuracy.
He’ll tend to look to walk guys down, throw a lot of leg kicks and fire power hooks. He hits hard to boot, having KO’d 6/13 opponents in wins, and he’s hurt numerous other opponents outside of those official finishes.
More from a technical perspective, the guy just showed he can go strike for strike over 25 minutes with an elite striker in Edson Barboza, despite coming up short.
His issues come primarily defensively as he eats 4.33 sig. strikes per minute at a 54% accuracy, which are numbers that have increased a decent bit since his last fight with Barboza where he ate 164 significant strikes.
It is important to note that in four of his five UFC fights that have hit the cards, he’s at least dropped one round. Despite only being KO’d once which was via slam pre UFC, he’s been hurt a decent amount in the UFC by Fili, Benitez, Allen and most recently via head kick by Barboza.
To his credit, he’s fought through and recovered in all scenarios, having gone on to win two of those fights. With all of that being said though, Yusuff has still outstruck some good strikers at the end of the day.
Overall, his pressure forward style, output and power will always make him a tough out but he has his defensive issues.
Lopes falls more into the category of your Brazilian jiu-jitsu type of striker, but he’s better than others in that same category. He’s shown aggression at times but has also fought at more tepid paces in others, so it’s still a bit difficult to make out his pacing.
Offensively, he’s serviceable in throwing tight combinations with good hand speed, and he does have nine finishes via strikes to his name, so the guy definitely has some pop, despite his floor background.
My issues more so lie with him defensively. He’ll keep a higher guard (more so in recent years) but there isn’t any real head movement to his game, so guys can split or work around it without tons of issues.
In his defense, he’s shown to be a tough guy who can take punishment, but he has been finished via strikes twice – I believe both instances did come on the ground though.
Overall, he’s one of those scrappy/dangerous dudes on the feet who can let it fly because he’s not really concerned about being taken down.
How it plays out: I don’t see how the stand up is boring here. Both guys are explosive commodities with the capabilities to hurt each other. However, of the two, I would say that Yusuff is better defensively and is the more proven commodity in extended exchanges with higher caliber strikers. Lopes has been hurt less than Yusuff, but strength of comp needs to be heavily factored in there. Additionally, Yusuff will easily be the biggest hitter that Lopes has fought to date with the exception of Brito, but that fight had little distance time. Despite Lopes possessing power, all the guys he’s killed are base ground fighters or bums, so I feel like I have to favor Yusuff on the feet.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Yusuff has only landed 2 TDs in the UFC as it’s not a big part of his game from an offensive perspective. He only stuffs at 62%, which isn’t very good but a tad misleading in the sense that he’s incredibly difficult to hold down.
Fili landed three TDs in their fight, but he only got two minutes of control time – Fili’s a decent wrestler. Yusuff was able to kimura sweep Fili in the 1st round though and did some good work from top position, racking up healthy minutes there off a kick in the 2nd round.
Against Allen, he got taken down twice and was controlled for five minutes, but the majority of that was via cage push as Yusuff was able to work up quickly – still concerning he wasn’t able to work off the cage as much though.
But he also did a good job of nullifying the back takes of Caceres who is a good transitional grappler and a black belt. He jumped a gilly against Shainis early and locked it up – not a huge fan of the gilly jump but he was in a good position for it and tapped him quickly.
Most recently, he landed a lot of good GNP early after hurting Barboza, but did get taken down three times late in the 5th round where he was able to work up relatively quickly on all of them.
Overall, the ground by and large hasn’t played a big factor in his fights given that he’s not a great offensive wrestler, but he has proven to be a good scrambler and is also positionally aware grappling wise.
Lopes is a BJJ black belt and an okay offensive wrestler for jiu-jitsu standards.
On top, he’s very aggressive in attacking things so he hasn’t always been the best control guy but when he does prioritize, it’s been respectable. It is his BJJ that’s the best part of his game though, as he’s got some really quick transitions to advance his positions or jump on things – he has a good back take and top transitions specifically.
I do think it’s a tad concerning that he got submitted by Zach Schnieder in CJJ Worlds 2021, and went to EBI OT with Jim Alers though. But he’s got a dangerous submission game in the MMA world with 11 sub wins on his rap sheet.
Similar to the striking, he’s definitely got some potent offensive tools both on top and bottom (very aggressive guard), but he’s a poor defensive wrestler which has resulted in the bulk of his pro losses – he’s either getting grinded out or finished himself on the ground.
I do think Lopes needs to be given credit though in his performance against Evloev, as he did put him in multiple tricky spots in that fight and didn’t quit. He also stuffed some early deep shots from Sabatini last time out who’s a good wrestler.
Overall, Lopes has the jiu-jitsu ability to expose guys who don’t come proper but he’s going to struggle with better wrestlers and positional players at the UFC level.
How it plays out: Lopes will obviously have the jiu-jitsu advantage here as the guy is dangerous in all positions. However, Yusuff has never been subbed before, having shown his defensive capabilities on more than one occasion. Additionally, Yusuff doesn’t project to be shooting TDs here, so I also think that limits some of the general guard threat that Lopes has. Also, Lopes isn’t a great offensive wrestler and Yusuff is very physically strong, so I don’t think it’s going to be easy for Lopes to land TDs.
With both of those things being said, Yusuff still may decide to go to the ground with Lopes which I don’t think is a great idea, or there’s merit to Lopes transitionally finding his way into positions. If he does get there, we don’t have much evidence of how Yusuff deals in fully disadvantageous spots. So, the overall ground equity should go to Lopes based on pure danger factor, but Yusuff could be fine from top positions potentially.
Lopes has outperformed my expectations so far in the UFC and is a guy that I feel needs to be given a healthy amount of credit. He’s such a dangerous fighter in both realms which realistically makes him live against virtually anyone. The thing is, he’s now getting run up the flagpole very quickly to where he’s entering facing elite level talents. I just feel his general ceiling is capped given all of his defensive issues. What makes this matchup interesting is that Yusuff is kind of his “gatekeeper” fight to see if he should be swimming with the top 10. It’s a tricky fight to call but I lean Yusuff.
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On DraftKings, both fighters have merit but this could be a messy fight and I feel a bit uncomfortable because of that.
Lopes at 8.5k has clear finishing upside. He will throw hard on the feet and his submission skills are elite. He’s +110 to win ITD which is quite strong, and he’s coming off back-to-back first-round finishes in the UFC.
It should be noted that I was low on Lopes in both of those spots, so I haven’t capitalized on his success personally.
I just tend to shy away from non-processed fighters, and Lopes fits that category. Even here, he doesn’t really project to land a ton of takedowns, and I’m not picking him to easily KO Yusuff. I do believe he can bullrush his way into a finish, but those aren’t the spots I tend to invest in.
At 8.5k given his back-to-back wins, I would assume Lopes will gain attention. However, his betting odds are dropping so he’s now technically overpriced, and the strength of this card also means he could be slightly overlooked.
Ultimately, Lopes is a fine tournament target based on his upside. I would much rather pay up when possible, but in focusing on the mid-range, Lopes is a strong option within that tier. I am unsure if I’ll be able to match the field ownership and I would likely lean underweight, but I’m not extremely passionate given the high-variance nature of his fights.
Yusuff at 7.7k is one of a few underdogs in this range who could be popular.
At a base level I wouldn’t expect Yusuff to be chalky, but he’s now only +115 to win so he is a value based on his DraftKings salary. That alone gives him some merit as he’s more likely to win than others in this range.
However, he may not wrestle at all. He’s only +365 to win ITD which is pretty poor. Volume striking over 15 minutes may not be enough to score optimally and there’s also a chance that Lopes minimizes that aspect as well with some grappling situations.
I think you’re really hoping that Yusuff can find a knockout here. That’s what would make me comfortable with him fitting on the optimal lineup. HIs ITD metric doesn’t help that cause but his price and moneyline still keep him firmly in play as a secondary option.
I’m probably going to prioritize other fighters in this range for pure upside, but Yusuff is fine for the price tag and I’ll consider him a standard secondary target which will find his way onto a handful of my teams.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yusuff by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano
Fight Odds: Turner -240, Moicano +200
Odds to Finish: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Turner 8.9k, Moicano 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an action-packed matchup here in the lightweight division between Jalin Turner and Renato Moicano.
Turner was last seen in action committing murder against Bobby Green in one of the worst late stoppages in recent memory.
Turner is a physical freak. He is 6’3” with a 77-inch reach. Turner lands big strikes on the feet and is super powerful. He is honestly capable of hurting anyone. He is 7-4 in the UFC with all seven wins coming by finish.
Turner lands 6.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.63. He isn’t super technical but with his physicality and power, he is tough to deal with. He has super powerful punches and can mix in ruthless kicks and knees as well.
I do worry about Turner a bit in extended striking exchanges though. He only defends strikes at 41 percent and his defense is suspect to me. If he doesn’t just finish someone or bully them, I do think he could get out skilled on the feet.
I had those feelings going into the Dan Hooker fight and thought Hooker had a very good chance for the upset. The fight got extended and Hooker landed 125 significant strikes and hurt Turner several times en route to the upset win. Turner’s lack of defense showed up in that fight.
Turner is an okay grappler. He lands 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think he is a guy who will go land takedowns and control decent grapplers. However, he is physical and capable of locking in submissions on hurt opponents.
Turner’s defensive wrestling is okay, and he defends takedowns at 75 percent and is physical. However, Matt Frevola landed four takedowns on 13 attempts on him and controlled him for 5:07. Gamrot also had grappling success against him. Good grapplers can definitely have success against him.
Turner will be taking on Renato Moicano. Moicano is a very skilled fighter. He is good at everything. He is a skilled striker and a technical offensive grappler.
Moicano’s grappling is quite good and he is a BJJ black belt. He lands 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and is very capable of passing guard and landing ground and pound or locking in a submission.
Moicano has relied on his grappling a lot lately to get victories. Five of his last six victories have come from submission via RNC. His last win came by grappling based decision against Drew Dober. Moicano is also a historically decent defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 74 percent.
I like Moicano as a striker. Moicano lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.80 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. Moicano is a pretty slick striker and when fights get extended, he is quite good. He has a diverse striking arsenal.
He has a good jab, straight punches, and excellent leg kicks. At his best, Moicano outstruck Calvin Kattar 115-41 at distance and completely butchered Kattar with leg kicks. It was by far Moicano’s best performance, especially from a striking perspective.
The issue with Moicano is his chin. Three of his last four losses have come by knockout. He got knocked out by Fiziev, Korean Zombie, and Aldo. He showed a lot of toughness against RDA by surviving all three rounds, but I will always consider Moicano getting randomly knocked out a realistic outcome.
As far as this matchup goes, Turner could obviously knock Moicano out. Moicano has a suspect chin and Turner has frightening power. If this fight is playing out on the feet, I honestly think Turner could knock Moicano out at any moment. So Turner can obviously win this fight, and I understand why Turner is the favorite.
However, we have seen Turner outgrappled before. He isn’t a bad defensive wrestler and can defend and explode out of positions using his physicality. Moicano is certainly the more skilled grappler here though. I absolutely think Moicano can land takedowns in this fight, and I think there is a really good chance he advances to a dominant position like the mount, or takes his back. So I honestly think Moicano is a live dog.
The issue is I think Moicano needs a dominant position to result in a finish for this fight to be comfortable for him. Turner has actually never been submitted on the mat before, and if Turner can just survive, he can turn any reversal or escape to the feet into a big moment and probably finish Moicano.
Look, I really think Moicano is a better grappler here and he can definitely find dominant grappling moments. The issue is I do think Moicano has to be perfect for me to be comfortable with him winning. He needs takedowns and a ton of control or a takedown and a finish. Anytime Moicano isn’t dominating, I think he is in danger of getting knocked out. So it is kind of an anxiety ridden fight. I actually do think Moicano landing a hard shot on the feet on Turner is possible too.
I keep going back and forth here. I think I am going to go with Moicano simply to signal that the moneyline seems a bit wide here.
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On DraftKings, I am excited for this matchup and I know a lot of the public will be excited for it as well.
I have mostly seen love for Turner this week, and I get it, because he’s a dangerous striker and Moicano has been knocked out a bunch of times.
Turner winning by KO is one of the most likely outcomes in this fight. He’s priced up to 8.9k but is coming off a 114-point score and has serious upside based on the matchup. He’s also -160 to win ITD which is very strong, and it could lead to him getting a lot of attention on DK.
My hesitancy with ownership is that he’s priced in a stacked range. We can’t play a ton of Nickal, Harrison, Weili, Figueiredo, Turner, Gaethje and Tsarukyan..
I do think Nickal and Weili will get the most attention, and possibly Tsarukyan as well as he’s the cheapest. I won’t project Turner to be overlooked but I’m not convinced he ends up super chalky.
I’m also nervous because he has one of the thinner paths to a ceiling, in that he needs a quick KO. He’s not going to wrestle, and I don’t think striking volume at this price tag gets the job done.
Yes, Moicano gets hurt a lot but durability is very high-variance so if Moicano simply survives a few minutes, Turner may not be able to reach his upside. Honestly, if Moicano survives a few minutes, Turner may not win the fight at all.
I will be most inclined to Turner when I am short on money. I want to pay up to the grapplers in this range when possible, and Gaethje has five-rounds to score points. I like all the options priced this highly and therefore Turner is not a stand out to me.
He will carry elite metrics into this matchup though and is cheaper than several of the strongest options, and paying down for him is totally acceptable. He’ll probably only be a secondary target for me all things considered but I respect his early finishing upside and prioritizing him outright wouldn’t be crazy.
Moicano at 7.3k is one of my favorite underdogs. His betting line just keeps getting worse so I’m hoping people don’t play him much, but I think he has legitimate upside.
Moicano is a very strong wrestler and grappler, and although Turner hasn’t been submitted, he was put in a deep RNC in the final seconds of a round by Dan Hooker very recently. He’s been outgrappled in losses multiple times.
I definitely think Moicano is capable of winning this fight on the mat. Maybe he won’t win the fight 50 percent of the time and he’s only +310 to win ITD, but I think these odds are a bit long. Unless Moicano gets KOd cold on the feet, striking exchanges should be competitive too.
So at 7.3k, I like Moicano a lot. Holloway will draw a ton of attention right above him, as will Oliveira, and others.
I expect Moicano will probably be talked about enough to gain popularity ahead of most options priced below him, but I consider him one of the cheapest targets on this slate who I’m actually excited to play.
When I need to save salary, Moicano will be among my favorite options to do so, though I understand that it won’t look pretty when he loses.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moicano by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Andrade -135, Rodriguez +117
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Andrade 8.1k, Rodriguez 8.1k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an awesome matchup here between two action-fighters in Marina Rodriguez and Jessica Andrade, who hit very hard which is rare for WMMA.
Rodriguez thrives as a Muay Thai striker with the capabilities of mixing in a vast array of strikes. She can kick, knee, punch, and elbow. She is truly an 8-limb threat.
Rodriguez is also lanky and long for the division, and is capable of landing in all different striking ranges as well. She can land at range, mid-range, and in close quarters with her elbows and knees. She is dangerous.
Rodriguez lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.89 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. She has solid metrics with strong output, and it has come against pretty solid competition as well. I think her most impressive win was against Tecia Torres where she won a clear decision and outlanded Tecia 84-41 in significant strikes.
I also like Rodriguez’s power. Power and volume is a great combination for a striker and Rodriguez has both. She is definitely an above-average hitter for this division. She knocked out Amanda Ribas and her strikes just seem very impactful on a strike per strike basis. It looks good to the judges.
Rodriguez doesn’t really grapple to win rounds. She lands 0.25 takedowns per minute and isn’t really interested in grappling offensively. She is a decent defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 66 percent. She can generally defend submissions. Her get ups are decent but good grapplers can control her on the mat a bit.
Rodriguez will be taking on UFC veteran Jessica Andrade. One of the biggest strengths of Andrade is her aggression and cardio combination. She will march her opponents down and put a wild pace on them, whether it is with her strikes or with her takedowns.
As a striker, Andrade isn’t all that technical but she is quite competent and dangerous. She has one punch power and is very aggressive and wings wild hooks. She lands 6.67 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.36 in return.
She is hittable, but she generally hits much harder than her opponents from a strike per strike basis and tends to wear them down over the course of 15 minutes. She does get hurt every now and then though, and she was recently knocked out by Yan Xiaonan so her durability is worrying me a bit.
As a grappler, Andrade again isn’t all that technical but she is very tenacious and physically strong, which aids her takedown ability. Andrade lands 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and can absolutely break opponents with her takedowns and ground control. Andrade defends takedowns at 72 percent, and I actually do consider her first layer defense to be pretty decent.
I think I would be more comfortable with Andrade being the favorite here if I was confident she could land takedowns. The issue is Andrade doesn’t wrestle that much anymore. She has only landed one takedown in her last 8 fights. Also, even if she tries to wrestle, Rodriguez isn’t awful as a defensive wrestler so I am honestly leaning towards this fight playing out on the feet for extended periods.
On the feet, I honestly favor Rodriguez. Both girls have volume and and could land some big shots. However, Rodriguez is the more technical striker and is so much longer than Andrade. Rodriguez has five inches of height on Andrade. I really think Rodriguez could hurt Andrade too.
So I am really leaning toward Rodriguez a bit here. I think this fight will generally stay standing, and I think Rodriguez is just the bigger fighter and more technical striker. Perhaps Andrade could land some takedowns to swing rounds, but I am leaning against it.
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On DraftKings, I think there’s a real chance this fight gets overlooked in the mid-range, and it might present a sneaky opportunity.
Just being priced between both Pereira/Hill and Rakic/Prochazka, I don’t expect this fight to get as much attention as it might on a typical slate. Especially with a +110 line for it to end inside the distance, it won’t rate out incredibly well.
Both fighters are priced at 8.1k, but the odds are not even. Andrade is actually the favorite at -135, and I think there’s a chance she could gain some attention because of that.
She has clear historic upside, and that’s worth considering at least. Andrade has topped 130 points five different times, which is super impressive.
This is not the best matchup for her to hit a ceiling, but within her style, she carries a lot of power, volume, and wrestling upside, and that combination can lead to big scores in any win.
Rodriguez is a better defensive fighter though, so in theory, she may not absorb many strikes compared to the average Andrade opponent. And Andrade’s chances of winning ITD are not as strong here because of it at +200.
It’s tough to bet on wrestling equity based on Andrade’s recent form, but it’s still a possibility. Playing into that risk could be beneficial.
Overall I consider Andrade a fine secondary target based on her style and metrics, and I will likely choose to sprinkle her in. She’s not an outright priority though and I think she’ll likely need to wrestle at a high rate to contend for the optimal.
Personally, I think the sneakier spot is on the Rodriguez side, and that’s where I may choose to take a chance in tournaments.
Make no mistake, this is for the unique factor. Priced at 8.1k, as the +117 dog, with a +375 ITD line, I don’t expect Rodriguez to be popular. I think she’ll actually be the lowest owned fighter priced above 8k, potentially with the exception of Bobby Green.
Where the sneakiness comes into play is that I believe Rodriguez does have knockout upside. Andrade has a lot of bad habits, and although she’s offensively potent, she needs to bomb her way into the pocket in order to have success.
That’s gotten her caught and knocked out multiple times, including recently by Yan Xiaonan. People will overlook that because Xiaonan is fighting for a title, but that KO win by Xiaonan was the first of her UFC career. It was the only time she’d knocked an opponent down in 29 rounds.
The only thing Rodriguez excels out is her effective striking. She’s not an insane power threat, but she’s long and technical. Andrade rushing her way into the pocket will probably get her hit. I can’t say for sure whether it will lead to another KO loss – odds indicate it won’t – but I do think that outcome is possible.
Considering Rodriguez will be very low owned, I’m actually excited to take some risks with her. We can’t only play the chalk.
Rodriguez doesn’t have much grappling equity and a win by decision probably won’t be optimal, even with a fair amount of volume. She’s not a phenomenal play on paper and you don’t need to prioritize her.
But she’s among my favorite sneaky targets on the slate, and someone who I will aim to be overweight on for that uniqueness factor.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller
Fight Odds: Green -179, Miller +153
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Green 8.6k, Miller 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Bobby Green will be entering his 12th year on the roster to where he’s had a very up and down career – he’s 12-10-1 in the UFC and 31-15-1 as a pro. Jim Miller is a fellow long time UFC talent and grizzled vet who recently turned 40 but is still chugging along – he’s 25-16 in the UFC and 37-17 as a pro. These guys have been booked to fight each other multiple times now, but Green has pulled from both outings – hopefully we get the fight on Saturday.
The striking component:
As noted, Green is a long time UFC vet but has had moments of inactivity in his run. He’s also fought a lot of killers, giving credence to his underwhelming overall UFC record.
On the feet, he’s a solid boxer who works a high output game, landing 6.23 sig. strikes per minute at 52% accuracy — great numbers.
Despite going 5-5 in his last 10, he’s outstruck virtually all his opponents at distance. He also has an under-rated kicking game when he decides to use it.
The reason for Green dropping some of these fights is that he will fight with his hands down and can eat the bigger shots, despite outlanding his opponents with some optical considerations – most notably the Klose and Moises fights in decisions, and obviously Dober and Turner found his chin.
Numerically though, he does have some solid defensive numbers, eating 3.84 sig. strikes per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate — especially given his strength of comp over the years.
Bobby’s also proven tough to KO in the aggregate, despite his last two losses coming via KO – I don’t really think his durability is going away, it’s just that he got clocked by two of the bigger hitters in the division. But it is something to monitor as he hadn’t been KO’d since 2016 prior.
Overall, Green’s a solid striker and can be competitive standing minute to minute with just about anyone out there but as noted, he can screw around at times which can hurt his optics.
Miller’s a gritty, tough southpaw who has some “junkyard dog” in him but his striking hasn’t traditionally been his best attribute, despite his recent standing successes.
We’ve seen him work at higher rates in recent years but he has been lower volume throughout the bulk of his career, landing only 2.96 sig. strikes per minute at a 42% accuracy.
But his power has translated better in his older age ironically as Miller wasn’t ever really known as much of a power guy, but he does have three KOs in his last five wins – granted those came against Gonzalez, Motta and Butler who aren’t really UFC level fighters.
He’ll often be more aggressive earlier in fights, but he can often succumb to pressure and will accept the back foot.
In saying that though, he’s only been KO’d twice through a lengthy career, so in an extended fight, you have to assume Miller will be in there for a full 15 minutes – Miller also proved that in his outing against Hernandez who’s one of the bigger hitters he’s fought in recent years.
Defensively, he eats 3.18 sig. strikes per minute at 58% — not bad.
But going back to the extended striking fights again, he’s often getting outpaced by a decent margin. In general, the optics for Miller standing tend not to be very good as he can get backed up and busted up.
But he did show that grit in his most recent outing against Benitez where despite the strike counts being even, he was landing the better overall shots.
Overall, he’s a guy who can hold his own on the feet as a serviceable striker with a decent low kick and left hand – I think his grit is more of his core competency than being some crazy tactician though.
How it plays out: Despite some of the recent successes for Miller standing, Green is one of the best strikers he’s fought in the last five years. The metrics back this up as well as Green throws and lands more at distance (6.7 v 4.34), is more accurate (48% v 41%) eats less distance volume (4.41 v 5.35) and defends better (64% v 58%). He’s also just generally faster and the better athlete. But as noted, there are some concerns on the Green side in that he’s lost his last two by KO and can shoot himself in the foot optically at times. Nonetheless, Green is such a tough guy to outwork over 15 minutes so he should win the stand up here at a moderate clip.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Green wrestled in high school and is a jiu-jitsu blue belt.
He didn’t wrestle much in the earlier parts of his UFC career but he’s capable should he choose to use it and is a better ground fighter than what his credentials suggest. Statistically, he only lands 1.12 TDs per 15 minutes at 39% — numbers that won’t blow your hair back.
But there’s been pockets of success in the last five years – he mounted Klose, outwrestled Patrick to a decision win and was able to get on top of Ferguson, submitting him late. That was his first submission win in over a decade though which needs to be noted.
Defensively, he stuffs at 72% and has an elite get-up game in the times he’s been taken down with exception of Makhachev, but Makhachev is also one of the best floor players in UFC history and he took that fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Very forgivable and that was the first time Green had been really beaten on the ground in over a decade.
In totality, only 25% of Green’s fight time has been spent grappling for or against which also includes clinching, so it tends to not be a large factor in his fights.
Overall, Green’s a capable ground fighter who I generally think is under-rated, but you can’t trust him to pursue that path much.
Miller’s a former collegiate wrestler and BJJ black belt. He lands 1.58 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 44%.
Conversely, he only stuffs TDs at 48% — that’s partially attributed to him accepting TDs at times, but he can be straight up out-wrestled as well. We saw this in his losses to Solecki, Pichel and Holtzman.
Miller’s recent years have been interesting as six of his last nine wins have come via submission. He’s a very technically sound guy and one who you can’t make small mistakes against, or he will make you pay.
As a result, he’s very opportunistic as the subs against Guida, Roberts and Cerrone were all off mistakes.
Even in his fight against Hernandez, he got to his back off a slip late in the fight and had a moderately viable attempt to finish late there. He’s obviously coming off a late neck crank finish over Benitez as well.
Overall, you can’t anticipate Miller to wrestle in volume at this point of his career, but opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with Miller in every position.
How it plays out: I’d probably give ground advantages to Miller primarily based on the fact that he’s the more likely party to wrestle in this fight and does have better pure jiu-jitsu. However, Green is one of the best defensive wrestlers that Miller has fought in recent years, who’s very difficult to hold down. So even if Miller is able to land TDs here, I don’t see him being able to control Green from conventional top positions. Where more of the concern would be transitionally if he’s able to get to the back of Green. However, Miller has been more of a guard sub guy throughout his career in comparison to a top based transitional grappler, but he’s definitely capable of that as we saw in the last fight.
I love these types of fights when the UFC books the long-time vets against each other. Green is the rightful favorite for the striking reasons mentioned above and perceivably has the defense wrestling game to limit or completely nullify Miller ground success. But to be a broken record, Green can be a difficult guy to trust at times despite being very skilled and Miller isn’t an easy guy to finish. Green winning a striking based decision is the most likely outcome to me though.
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On DraftKings, I think this is a tricky fight that won’t rate out extremely well on paper.
The underdog, Jim Miller, is very likely to be the higher prioritized option of the two. He’s a fan-favorite, and he’s been public about wanting the UFC to announce him as “Jim Fucking Miller” which has to give him at least a 10 percent ownership boost.
Joke aside, he’s been crushing lately, and is coming off another impressive win while Bobby Green was brutally knocked out in his last fight. Miller is only 7.6k and actually has the superior ITD line at +235.
I expect Holloway and Oliveira will gain more attention, but I can see Miller being a popular target at this number. He’s always been a decent early finisher and it’s fine to target him for upside purposes.
However, it’s not a good matchup. It really is not. Green is a clearly superior boxer with better volume, defense and cardio. Green also has the wrestling background to neutralize Miller on paper.
At best, I think you’re hoping that Green doesn’t show up in form, which happens a lot. Or, that Miller will randomly be able to hurt Green because Green has been hurt recently. Both are semi-viable outcomes.
Again, given the price tag, it’s not a huge risk to target Miller. He rates out well and saves salary at 7.6k. I can’t recommend him as more than a standard secondary target because the matchup is not a good one, but I understand the appeal.
Green is priced at 8.6k and I really doubt he’ll be owned. He could be the lowest owned fighter above 8k.
On paper, he does not rate out well. He’s not likely to wrestle much, and striking volume is never the best way to score fantasy points. He’s only +265 to win ITD and Miller is very tough.
My biggest hesitancy is that Green is one of these types who never rates out well, doesn’t even win ITD that often, but still smashes in wins. His last three decision wins have scored 105, 98 and 111.
I’m honestly not sure what to do with Green here. There are plenty of other options if you don’t feel comfortable, and most will not. But then it creates a situation where targeting him at a low ownership could be impactful.
In general, I just don’t think I can click the button very often. There are other fighters in this same range who I like for unique purposes as well, and with a small portfolio, I will probably end up light on Green like everyone else.
With a larger portfolio, you should mix him in. Miller is aggressive and comes forward, which will give Green opportunities to hit him. Maybe he wrestles some too, as Miller can be taken down.
At 8.6k, Green is just a contrarian option in my book but someone with viability for that purpose.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Green by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cody Garbrandt vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Odds: Figueiredo -299, Garbrandt +243
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Figueiredo 9.1k, Garbrandt 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
Two former champions collide for our preliminary opener on Saturday, as Cody Garbrandt will aim to give Deiveson Figueiredo his first defeat in the bantamweight division.
Figueiredo first won the flyweight title in 2020 with a win against Joseph Benavidez, which he quickly followed up with another first-round finish against Alex Perez.
Since that time, Figueiredo spent three years, and more than 75 minutes in the Octagon with Brandon Moreno in the pair’s historic quadrilogy, which ultimately ended with Moreno taking the championship in 2023.
At that point, it was time for Figueiredo to move on and test the waters up a weight class at 135 pounds. He was already having trouble making the weight, and there was a fresh new breed of challenger for him to compete against.
Figueiredo made that divisional debut against Rob Font in December, and won a comfortable decision, hurting Font at times and showcasing some improved offensive wrestling as well.
Now, he’ll take on a former superstar of the division in Cody Garbrandt, who is coming off his most impressive victory since he won that title in 2016.
It certainly seemed like Garbrandt was destined for stardom after dethroning Cruz for the bantamweight championship many years ago, but his bad habits, and flaws within his fighting style have boiled to the top, and it’s led Garbrandt to a brutal 3-5 record since that point.
Most notably, Garbrandt has shown that he’s unable to take the damage necessary to engage in brawls, which is what he would like to do with his boxing based style.
He tried that against his rival and former teammate TJ Dillashaw two times, left himself vulnerable in the pocket on extended exchanges, and ended up getting knocked out both times.
Then he fought a lesser hitter in Pedro Munhoz, and ended up unconscious once again. It wasn’t long after that when he decided to drop down to flyweight and test the waters at 125 pounds, and he once again found himself unconscious in the first round.
The durability, at this point, certainly seems like a major issue for Garbrandt and I would not trust him to take much damage and survive it.
Furthermore, Garbrandt has always been a limited fighter, and will find his most success with early knockouts. He hits incredibly hard and has fast hands, and those are the tools that have allowed him success.
But he’s never been a high-volume boxer. Even in his five-round championship victory over Dominick Cruz, Garbrandt only landed 68 significant strikes. He currently averages 3.06 sig. strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 3.91 per minute, which is not a positive ratio nor one that makes me confident in his striking over an extended period.
Garbrandt does have a wrestling background, but he’s primarily used it defensively, and he defends takedowns at 80 percent. Offensively, he’s only averaging 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is really not enough to be impactful.
His submission grappling game is not too threatening either, and his ground control alone won’t be enough to impact the fight against anyone competent.
Overall, it paints a picture of a fighter who is capable of big moments, and technically speaking, has the tools to box with success in limited exchanges. But without a deep wrestling game, without striking volume, and without the durability necessary to take some hits in return, Garbrandt’s game is sketchy at best.
This is the big issue with his matchup against Figueiredo, who packs a ton of power in his hands, and has been through several wars where he’s proven capable of taking damage.
Figueiredo isn’t the most technical guy, and I’ve never been exceptionally high on him myself compared to the public, but he is willing to throw down and he’s won those battles more often than not. He’s earned 11 knockdowns in the UFC himself, while only being knocked down once.
Up at bantamweight, you can argue that Figueiredo will have a tougher time facing harder hitters, but you can also argue that because he’s cutting less weight, he’ll be able to absorb some damage even easier.
It spells trouble for Garbrandt, who is likely to get hit very hard by Figuiredo at points in this fight. And if that’s what it comes down to, I have to favor Figueiredo pretty considerably.
It would not be a surprise at all to see these two exchange in the pocket early, and for Garbrandt to find himself unconscious on the canvas once again.
The other potential outcomes are a bit questionable, considering Figueiredo shares similar metrics to Garbrandt.
He only lands 3.08 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.46 per minute. He lands 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes, while defending at 58 percent.
If this fight extends into the latter rounds, which is possible based on the Over 1.5 rounds prop sitting at -185, I’m not sure it will be very exciting.
Garbrandt may not want to be aggressive here, and may choose to sit back and counter, knowing that bombing his way into the pocket could leave him vulnerable. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume anyway, traditionally.
Figueiredo may choose to be the aggressor, but likewise, he probably will respect the power of Garbrandt early and likely won’t blindly rush into the pocket.
Neither fighter projects to have much wrestling success. I suppose Garbrandt could take Figueiredo down, but I don’t think he’ll be able to control him or threaten for a finish.
Figueiredo isn’t the better wrestler technically, and I can’t expect him to have much success, though there is some upside down the stretch. Garbrandt had a recent decision win over Trevin Jones in which he landed 26 total strikes and looked poor in the third round, so that’s a concern for me as well.
I don’t want to fully discount Garbrandt’s chances in this matchup because he has speed, and power, and he’s been able to translate that into many early knockout victories in the UFC. It does seem unreasonable to project him to be able to knock Figueiredo out early at a high rate though.
And once the fight extends, it’s tough to trust Garbrandt who hasn’t been able to keep a high pace for multiple rounds.
To state the obvious, these two fighters will either choose to strike aggressively in the early minutes, or they won’t. If they do, it could realistically result in an early knockout, but you’d have to favor Figueiredo moderately in that outcome to get his hand raised.
If they don’t, I think you still have to favor Figueiredo based on damage potential, and based on his history in extended fights. An extended fight would likely result in limited exchanges though, and potentially a competitive decision.
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On DraftKings, the main focal point and upside within the matchup lies in Figueiredo’s ability to find an early knockout.
A result like that is quite possible, and it would allow Figueiredo to potentially score enough points at 9.1k to contend for the optimal. In theory, an early knockout is 90 points for the win + 10 for the knockdown + a few more for significant strikes, so a 100-110 total would be a fair expectation.
Figueiredo will carry a -120 line to win ITD in this fight, which is decent, and does suggest some finishing capability. It’s also not an overwhelming line though, and it’s clear that there’s some built-in fear for this fight to get extended, which makes me very nervous because I consider both sides to be extremely boom or bust.
Without that early knockout, I do not see Figueiredo competing for the optimal. Even in a second round KO, he would only get 80 points + significant strikes, and I’d project him closer to a 90 point total there.
If we see a decision, even with mild wrestling success, I just can’t project Figueiredo to produce enough offense to contend for the optimal and it’s more likely that he would bust completely.
It makes him difficult to analyze a bit because even with a 105 point score, Figueiredo will still have Harrison and Nickal to compete with up top, and THREE other five-round winners scattered throughout the card. In that sense, it is possible that Figueiredo wins by first-round KO, scores well, and still misses the optimal lineup.
I think I am actually leaning against targeting him heavily because of that. I really do like Figueiredo’s chances to earn the KO, but he’s so extremely limited to that outcome, and given the price and the strength of the slate, I am quite worried that he won’t be able to separate himself.
He is, of course, still a very viable tournament option on paper and a fighter who rates out reasonably well. Targeting him mildly or moderately for his KO upside at 9.1k is a fine strategy, especially with a larger portfolio.
But I think I will lean toward the mild side, and I may aim to have more exposure to grapplers and five-round targets in this same range.
Garbrandt at 7.1k is extremely boom or bust as well, and not a fighter who I am prioritizing on this slate.
In theory, he can win by first-round KO though, and if that outcome comes to fruition, Garbrandt can be optimal. The majority of his UFC wins have been early KOs, so that type of result is certainly in play based on his style.
It’s just not a great matchup though, and it’s why he’s ultimately a +250 underdog to Figueiredo.
Without that quick finish, I can’t project many strikes or takedowns over 15 minutes, which means Garbrandt’s floor and ceiling is extremely limited. You don’t have to look much further than his last decision win, which only scored a pitiful 56 points.
Even if Garbrandt was to win by decision and score 60, I don’t think I’d want to play him. There are too many high-upside underdogs on this slate and some who could potentially even surpass that mark in a loss.
Garbrandt won’t rate out well given his +450 line to win ITD, and I don’t see him being very popular based on the matchup either.
Feel free to use him as a low-end sprinkle for upside purposes within a large portfolio, but my exposure will be extremely limited.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Figueiredo by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)