UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 (3/9/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera
Fight Odds: O’Malley -272, Vera +224
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: O’Malley 9.2k, Vera 7k
Weight Class: 135
The Suga Show is officially back in town, as budding superstar Sean O’Malley takes center stage to defend his newly earned bantamweight belt against the last man who beat him in Marlon “Chito” Vera.
It’s been an astonishing rise to the top for O’Malley, who first made headlines on Dana White’s Contender Series, the feeder program that’s brought many unique talents into the UFC.
O’Malley earned his contract as a wide-eyed, skinny-framed, 22 year old whose skills within the Octagon were clearly outpaced by his skills on the microphone. But he got his opportunity and made good use of it, and even got the attention of Snoop Dogg, where the two famously shared a smoke after his win.
With attention like that, you can imagine how many fighters, fans, and members of the MMA media have wanted to knock O’Malley down a peg. However, O’Malley has continually proven his worth, and has passed the majority of obstacles he’s faced, which most recently included the former champion Aljamain Sterling.
I didn’t think O’Malley would win that fight, and in all honesty, I would consider picking Sterling again if those two fought because Sterling is a superior grappler and a more well-rounded fighter.
And moving forward, I don’t necessarily expect O’Malley to retain the championship for a long period of time. Although he’s a talented kid, there are a lot of killers in this division and I’m not sure anyone gets past Merab Dvalishvili when he eventually gets his crack at the belt.
Despite this, I have actually been higher than the market on the majority of O’Malley’s matchups because there are a lot of skills in his arsenal that I do really respect and consider valuable in the fight game.
The main one being his ability to punch other dudes in the head, while avoiding getting hit in the head in return.
O’Malley currently lands 7.25 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.51 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate, which are strong metrics overall. More impressively, opponents are only landing significant strikes to his head at 24 percent, meaning O’Malley is avoiding the vast majority of attempts.
You can argue that this is one of the very most important metrics in all of MMA because judges value damage and damage is predominantly scored via head strikes.
And even as a power striker, O’Malley has proven far more successful than most fans expected. He’s fought in the UFC 11 times and of his nine victories, six have come by knockout, including three in the first round.
He’s a tall, long fighter with efficient boxing and distance management, and he will continue to have knockout equity against the majority of the division.
That’s why in any given striking matchup, I think O’Malley is likely to have success. Of course there are fighters who carry even more power, and there are fighters with more experience, and potentially ones with better durability.
But as far as a per-minute striker, O’Malley attempts and lands a lot of punches and kicks, and he rarely gets hit in the head in return. That is going to give him a very high floor in any striking based matchup and I expect he’ll continue to compete or have the advantage in most striking rounds.
The problems and questions with O’Malley have come in two areas. The first area is in the wrestling and grappling realm, which I don’t expect to be super impactful for this particular matchup.
O’Malley hasn’t faced many elite wrestlers, but his body type and background, and recent exchanges against Petr Yan suggest he’ll probably continue to give up takedowns to the best fighters in this division, which he’s now forced to face. To his credit, he did just defend two initial attempts against Sterling, so perhaps he is improving in this area.
He’s also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu so his knowledge of the submission game is pretty strong, and it should keep him alive if he ends up on his back occasionally.
The bigger issue we’ve seen in his career is his durability, and more specifically, his body durability which is not something that’s talked about often with other fighters.
O’Malley badly hurt his leg in a fight against Andre Soukhamthath in 2018, to the point in which he could not even stand. Somehow, Soukhamthath didn’t realize it and let O’Malley escape with a win in that matchup.
Only three fights later, O’Malley fought Chito Vera, and again hurt his leg early in the fight. Vera did realize it, swarmed him, and landed some heavy shots on the ground after O’Malley stumbled to his back. The fight was immediately stopped after those shots, which happened late in the first round. And that’s the last time O’Malley has lost.
You can make the argument that these occurrences were extremely random and unlucky. Or, you can make the argument that because O’Malley has skinny legs and uses them to kick, perhaps he’s more vulnerable to hurt them than other fighters.
He’s also very rarely been hit to the head with impactful shots, as noted earlier, so I can’t say I’m convinced in his ability to withstand head damage if he takes a lot of it. Petr Yan did knock him down in 2022 and O’Malley recovered well, but he was hurt.
This is important to note because now that O’Malley is in a rematch with Vera, I do expect his durability to be tested.
For those unfamiliar, Vera is not a per-minute specialist and he and I have had a long, long history of conflict. Of course he doesn’t know that I exist, so this conflict only takes place in my head. But I have picked against him in almost every single fight in his career, and I’ve been made the fool many times.
The primary reason why I have always considered Vera to be overrated is because he consistently gets hit a lot more often than he’s able to hit his opponents. He currently lands 4.37 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.16 per minute, with a 51 percent defensive rate.
At distance, Vera is landing 5.0 sig. strikes per minute and absorbing 6.2 per minute, in a large, 22-fight sample. Opponents are landing strikes to his head at 40 percent.
None of these metrics are good. As a primary striker, you don’t want to get hit more often than you can hit your opponent. This just seems obvious.
Even worse, Vera is a terribly slow starter and he’s lost the first round in so many of his matchups, including ones against a very-low caliber of competition. The majority of his victories are comebacks.
A 3rd round knockout, a 2nd round submission, a 2nd round knockout, another 3rd round knockout, and a 4th round knockout are just some of the victories Vera has earned in the UFC, and although I give him credit for them, I tend to find them unsustainable in the long run, especially given the metrics I’ve already shared.
The issue, I suppose, is that Vera seems to have historically strong cardio and durability. He never gets tired, and he never gets hurt. He’s never been finished in 32 pro fights, which is nearly unheard of.
Somehow, Vera has won enough times that he’s now able to compete in main events, which are five rounds instead of the usual three. And this just makes his game that much better.
It means he can still lose that first round, and have 20 minutes left to work. He can lose the first three rounds for all he cares, and still find a way to batter his opponent down the stretch and secure the comeback.
I’m not trying to say Vera is incompetent. He’s a fine striker, who can box and who can kick, and he’s damaging from the clinch. He’s a strong submission grappler himself.
But he’s never been a strong round-winner because he gets hit very often in return, and he only averages 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, so his submission grappling rarely comes into play either.
That’s why I am forced to pick against him once more, and side with O’Malley to retain his belt.
O’Malley has far superior distance metrics, and he should have a clear advantage in head strike volume. He is the more likely fighter to start well, and carry that success into the early rounds.
If Vera had the ability to mix it up and take him down, I would be more concerned, but Vera rarely wrestles. If for some reason he does land a takedown, I’m still confident O’Malley can defend himself and scramble up to his feet, unless he’s hurt prior to the ground exchanges.
I even think O’Malley might have a chance at takedowns, because Vera defends at 70 percent and can be held down at times. Mostly, I expect these two to neutralize each other on the mat and the vast majority of this fight should take place on the feet.
It will really come down to whether Vera is once again able to mount a comeback. He may not fire off a lot of strikes early on, but over 25 minutes, he will likely increase his pace as the fight progresses.
And yeah, when O’Malley is avoiding strikes, he looks great. What happens if Vera can catch him though? What happens if Vera attacks his legs like we saw in the first fight, and can accrue damage there over 15-25 minutes?
I am not completely convinced that O’Malley won’t get hurt or injured, whether it’s against Vera or a future opponent. There’s plenty of variance in striking exchanges anyway, so a random punch or kick will always have the ability to change the momentum.
And Vera will likely be there in front of him, no matter what the round or the amount of strikes he’s eaten. His cardio and durability seem nearly unmatched, and that will always give him a chance to win and come from behind.
I’ll take O’Malley to keep his distance, and cautiously outstrike Vera over five rounds to retain the belt, but make no mistake, this is a test that O’Malley hasn’t yet proven he can pass.
—
On DraftKings, this main event, as with all five round fights, will be a popular matchup to target.
O’Malley is priced up to 9.2k and should carry a strong floor and ceiling in a victory, though I am not certain this is the best matchup for him to reach that ceiling, and I am a bit worried about him being overowned on a public slate.
He won’t carry much, if any wrestling equity in this matchup, which is a major issue for me. As is the fact that Vera has never been finished. O’Malley holds a fine ITD line of +225, but it’s hard for me to believe he can legitimately finish Vera 30 or more times out of 100, considering Vera’s history.
I think there is a very real chance we see an extended fight here, which is backed up by the Over 4.5 rounds prop set at -160, and that will mean O’Malley may be dependent on landing a super high volume of significant strikes.
He can accomplish that goal, and he’s topped out at 230 strikes in 15 minutes before, but that’s an unrealistic pace. Projecting him to land his average of 7.25 sig. strikes per minute would equate to 181 total strikes, which would put him on pace to score 102 DraftKings points.
At 9.2k, 102 points is decent, but it’s still not a guarantee to contend for the optimal lineup. And it wouldn’t be shocking to see him only land 150 sig. strikes in 25 minutes, as opposed to 181.
I am simply nervous that O’Malley lacks finishing equity, and wrestling equity, and coupled with a potentially high public ownership, at a high price tag, there are several ways for him to fail.
The counter argument is that his floor is still pretty strong, and he should throw strikes at a decent pace for 25 minutes. Scoring 90-100 points may not put him on the winning lineup, but it wouldn’t crush your lineup either.
This top range lacks the strength I would like for me to get extremely excited about pivoting away from O’Malley, but I consider him more of a generally safe option, with upside, rather than a total smash play with an extremely high ceiling. I may end up with moderate exposure by default, but I will lean toward the underweight side in large fields, assuming he projects to be very popular.
Vera at 7k is one of a couple cash game punts you can consider, if you’d like to save salary, given that the fight should last a while. His floor will project better than most others in this range, and it’s fine to consider stacking him with O’Malley in cash games.
In tournaments, I prefer to look elsewhere, though there are still ways for Vera to win. He’s +300 to win ITD and a knockout victory would very likely have him competing for the optimal lineup.
If you’re playing with a large portfolio, Vera is a solid secondary target given this floor and ceiling combination, and the price savings. He may even carry a small amount of leverage against a higher owned O’Malley.
But, I think there are better matchups to target for underdogs, and there are so many competitively lined fights on this card. Vera still carries a big name and he may draw public attention, and with his cheap price tag, he could end up higher owned than he should be.
I prefer to prioritize a handful of options priced above Vera, who have better win equity and finishing equity. Or just take some chances on lower owned, higher risk options who could allow me to separate myself from the field.
You can mix in a little bit of Vera depending on the size of your portfolio, and the contest size, but I’d be cautious about matching or exceeding the field ownership.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: O’Malley by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Fight Odds: Saint Denis -222, Poirier +187
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Saint Denis 8.9k, Poirier 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fight here that is nearly guaranteed to bring the heat as fan favorite and action fighter Dustin Poirier will take on the surging and extremely aggressive Benoit Saint Denis. I want to point out that this is a FIVE round non-title fight as well.
Dustin Poirier is a fantastic attrition volume striker. Poirier lands a solid 5.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.30 in return. Poirier is a bit more hittable than I’d like, but he can absolutely wear down opponents and break them down in later rounds. He has solid boxing and power. He is also capable of low calf kicks which he famously blasted Conor McGregor with.
I also consider Poirier durable. He has only been knocked out three times in 29 professional fights. He can be hurt but given how many wars he has been in and what his style of fighting consists of, I consider him quite durable. He was just brutally knocked out in his last fight vs. Justin Gaethje though, which isn’t a great look going forward. I just don’t like when guys who are a bit older take damage.
My main issue with Poirier is his grappling, especially his defensive grappling. I know, he is a black belt and he has a pretty nasty guillotine choke. He also lands 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and submitted Michael Chandler, so he is capable on the mat to a degree.
However, I noticed before the Charles Oliveira fight that he basically has fought all strikers in his career, almost to an astonishing rate. You would think in 29 professional fights, he would have fought more grapplers.
Any time Poirier has fought grapplers, he honestly hasn’t looked good. He defends takedowns at an okay 63 percent. However, The Korean Zombie worked him on the mat early in Poirier’s career, Khabib worked him, and Eddie Alvarez had him in a dominant position.
Even Dan Hooker landed four takedowns on him. I also hated some of the reversals he gave up to Anthony Pettis. Those were some of the reasons why I picked Oliveira to upset him. Oliveira honestly beat Poirier on the mat even easier than I thought he would too.
I also just thought Poirier looked poor as a grappler against Michael Chandler. I don’t even consider Chandler that great of a control grappler and Poirier was getting dominated at times.
Look, I still quite respect Poirier. He is dangerous and if he gets a striking fight, he will be very tough to beat. However, I will always be skeptical of his defensive grappling.
Poirier will be taking on Benoit Saint Denis. I have to say that Saint Denis really impressed me against Thiago Moises. I picked him to win that fight, but he looked way better than I expected. He beat the breaks out of Moises and Saint Denis’ pace was insane. Saint Denis then followed up with an impressive performance against Matt Frevola and sent Frevola to the land of wind and ghosts.
I expect grappling to continue to be the main path to victory for Saint Denis going forward. It is what he did well on the regionals too. He does a good job of landing doubles against the cage. He also has a decent passing game and is submission capable on the mat with his aggressive backtakes.
Look, I don’t think Saint Denis is the best grappler or anything. However, he is competent and tenacious. He is also a very tough guy who can push a pace. He just shoots so many takedowns and is always pressuring his opponents, and eventually he breaks them. He will continue to wreck the majority of UFC fighters on the mat.
I don’t totally trust Saint Denis as a striker though. In his UFC debut, he took an all-time beating against Zaleski dos Santos in a fight that certainly should have been stopped. He stayed tough in that fight and wasn’t finished, but he absorbed 149 significant strikes in that and only dished out 67 in return.
I am just not comfortable in backing people who absorb that many strikes, and Saint Denis’ striking style is too brawling-based for my liking.
However, I do think Saint Denis has a good rear body kick out of the southpaw stance. He is also aggressive and it really frustrates and bothers opponents. So I do think he is knockout capable.
I also think he is capable of outworking fighters on the feet as well. His defense REALLY scares me though, and he will certainly be knocked out in the future. Even Moises landed some very big hooks in the pocket at the end of round two. Moises just didn’t have the power in his hands to totally make Saint Denis pay.
I think Saint Denis will continue to win a lot of fights at this level. However, I do think a time will come when his grappling will get neutralized and he will get badly get hurt on the feet.
I do lean toward Saint Denis in this matchup against Poirier though. Poirier is just such a weak wrestler at times and can get put in such bad positions on the mat. Poirier can get controlled, he can get body triangled, etc. I just feel like Saint Denis won’t stop attempting takedowns and will inevitably land some and put Poirier into really bad positions on the mat. It will likely result in a RNC because I don’t like Poirier’s RNC defense at all.
I do want to be clear though that I think Poirier can win this fight. I think Poirier is at an advantage on the feet and maybe even at a massive advantage in boxing range. I feel like Saint Denis has relied so much on his pressure and cardio to overwhelm guys on the feet, but Poirier has tremendous striking cardio and experience, and will likely not be overwhelmed.
Saint Denis has suspect defense too and I just think Poirier can maybe beat him up if he gets a fight in boxing range for even small stretches of time.
I will pick Saint Denis though. He is the younger, fresher fighter with potentially massive grappling upside. He also seems tough and I think there is a good chance his constant wrestling pressure will overwhelm Poirier.
—
On DraftKings, this is my favorite fight on the slate and I will be very heavily invested in this matchup as a whole.
Saint Denis is priced up to 8.9k and he may be one of the most popular fighters on this entire slate. Not only is he a solid favorite with a moneyline north of -200, but his box score is incredible.
He’s scored 109, 149, 115, 136 and 105 DK points in his five UFC wins, and any of those outcomes would be enough to compete for the optimal lineup on Saturday at 8.9k.
Those outcomes are a direct result of his fighting style too. His pace, pressure and wrestling will lead to a lot of exchanges, and a lot of points in wins. I want to continue targeting him as a generality.
Now he’s fighting in a five round matchup, which only adds to his floor and ceiling. I am not very confident that Saint Denis wins the fight, but IF he wins, we’re either getting five rounds of action or a finish, and either outcome is very likely to clear 100 points.
The biggest concern will be ownership, but to me, this is an unavoidable spot. This isn’t a very strong range and there aren’t many direct pivots away from BSD. He’s also cheap enough that a suboptimal performance may still result in an optimal score.
Saint Denis is -145 to win ITD which is a great line, but again, I would be more than comfortable if he won this fight by decision given the amount of grappling success he’d project to have over five rounds. It’s fair to be concerned by tournament ownership but this is not a situation I want to avoid, and I’d much rather choose to be unique elsewhere.
Poirier is among my favorite underdogs on the slate because I view this matchup as a pretty binary one, meaning that I do not expect it to be competitive either way.
Either BSD will outwrestle Poirier and probably find a submission along the way, or Poirier will defend those takedowns, in which case, Poirier might have a distinct advantage standing that could lead to a knockout.
The major concern with BSD as Tim noted is his striking defense, which sits at 44 percent. Poirier absolutely can beat him in striking exchanges and will have a great chance to knock him out in five rounds. Poirier is +200 ITD which is pretty decent for his price.
Honestly, you can make the argument that Poirier is a clear moneyline value as well. He’s a far more technical and experienced fighter and he might look like the obvious favorite in hindsight.
Given his five round potential, and finishing equity, I would expect a strong score for Poirier in any form of a victory, which would likely contend for the optimal lineup.
Again, the issue here will be ownership. I am going to project Poirier as one of the most popular underdogs on this slate.
He’s benefited by the fact that there’s 14 fights on this slate and there’s an additional five rounder, but Poirier is a huge name, and he’s cheap. He’ll be moderately owned publicly, at least.
So I’m not convinced there will be extreme leverage against Saint Denis, though playing Poirier will arguably still get you off the most chalky constructions and allow you to make pivots away from BSD in that top range.
At 7.3k, Poirier is a very strong tournament target and a potentially mild leverage target against a higher owned Saint Denis. His floor/ceiling combination in a win is strong, and I’d like moderate exposure to him because of the binary nature of this matchup, and some uncertainty with Saint Denis’ defense.
I will also note that despite this, I wouldn’t consider Poirier’s floor to be incredible as he may be controlled on the mat for periods of time, and/or lose inside the distance. He’s less safe to score points in a loss for that reason, but still carries upside and potentially moneyline value.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Saint Denis by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page
Fight Odds: Holland -128, Page +112
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Holland 8.5k, Page 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
The UFC rarely makes major signings from other competing promotions, like Bellator, but they pounced on the opportunity to sign Michael Venom Page to a deal and he’ll make his debut Saturday against Kevin Holland.
Page is 21-2 professionally with 12 wins by knockout and four wins by submission, and his career has been filled with thrilling knockouts, and highlight reel finishes.
He is 36 years old now, and I don’t necessarily expect him to make a legitimate run to title contention, but he’s squared off with the best opponents in Bellator for many years and has sent many of them face first into the canvas. To give you a glimpse into Page’s abilities, he once fought a guy named Cyborg, broke his skull with a flying knee in the second round, and then proceeded to celebrate by tossing a Pokeball at him.
His victories are devastating, and that will bring nothing but excitement to the UFC.
Page is a world champion kickboxer with a taekwondo style, which if you read a little further into my article, you’ll know exactly how I feel about this base for MMA. I don’t love it.
Typically, taekwondo fighters are throwing single shots, with their hands down at their waist, and they often lack well-rounded skills like wrestling and grappling that make them vulnerable in the long run.
This is the downside to Page too. His wrestling is very weak, and he’s been exposed on the mat on several occasions. He’s actually never been submitted, but he was largely outgrappled in a recent fight in 2022, and I simply don’t believe his takedown defense will hold up against strong wrestlers in the UFC’s welterweight division.
Furthermore, his volume isn’t great because he’s so reliant on these big moments. He’s not landing consistent volume, and a lot of his attacks have some spinning or flying element to them. It means that in his decisions, we often see both sides exchanging minimally, largely because Page’s opponent will be too cautious and won’t want to make defensive mistakes.
This is not a style I love from an investment standpoint, and I won’t be backing Page very often. I do think he’s capable of some highlight reel knockouts, because his flashy striking style is dangerous, but without those fight-ending moments, Page doesn’t have any depth to his game.
His first challenger in the UFC will be Kevin Holland, who is probably better than Page everywhere, but has the Fight IQ of a goldfish and likely won’t take advantage of his strengths.
Holland is literally the perfect opponent for Page because Holland will very likely choose to not use his grappling advantage because he wants to put on a show for the fans. From an entertainment standpoint, I can respect it. As an MMA analyst, it annoys the hell out of me.
If Holland were to pursue a grappling game here, I would be fairly confident he would win. Holland is black belt in jiu-jitsu and he’s won by submission in the UFC three times, despite not wrestling much at all.
In fact, he only lands 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, so the general expectation in any fight is that Holland won’t land one single takedown. He has only taken down one of his last nine opponents.
Maybe I’m just giving Holland too much credit but I do think his submission grappling game is respectable, and Page just doesn’t offer much from the mat. While it may not impact this fight at all, I have to give Holland a sizable grappling edge.
Assuming this fight takes place on the feet, I still think Holland should be favored. He is the less dramatic striker, but he’s more consistent and he’s fought much better competition.
Holland lands 4.39 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 per minute, while defending at 51 percent. He’s knocked out a bunch of people in the UFC and is somewhat tricky with his lengthy frame.
Holland just lost a split decision to Jack Della Maddalena, who is also fighting on this card, but that fight was close and Holland still landed 127 sig. strikes in three rounds. That’s probably more strikes than Page will land in half a dozen fights, and Maddalena is a legit boxer.
Essentially, I believe Holland has paths to victory everywhere this fight takes place. He’ll be neutralized to some degree standing, and he’ll have to avoid major power shots coming his way, but he has never been knocked down in 20 UFC bouts. He’s been damaged, but it’s not as if he has this long history of getting broken, and in fact it’s quite the opposite.
Perhaps Holland will be tentative against Page and neither man will throw much, but I trust in his volume more than I do Page’s over 15 minutes. And because this is MMA, Holland will still have the ability to clinch and grapple with Page at times, if he wants.
I am never very confident in Holland and he makes many mistakes, but I think he’s the more well-rounded fighter and he has the tools to win this fight. Page is a live underdog against any opponent but without one big damaging strike that puts Holland unconscious, I don’t see Page controlling this matchup.
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On DraftKings, I expect Page to be the higher owned fighter, as the flashy newcomer, with the betting odds trending in his direction.
He’s priced down to 7.7k, which makes him a clear value as a +115 underdog. However, I am extremely confused by his +400 ITD line, which is super poor, though it’s arguably the clearest way for him to win.
If his line doesn’t improve, he won’t rate out as strongly as I am expecting, and the field may not be as interested to jam him in. However, he’s still a value dog, with knockout upside, so I expect Page to gain some popularity.
This is a very classic boom or bust situation because Page has almost no ways to score points outside of a knockout. He almost certainly won’t wrestle, and he can fight minutes at a time without throwing many strikes.
Even if Page wins by decision, I am very concerned he will bust. He might not even top 60 points. Essentially, if you’re playing Page, you should be rooting for him to win by knockout in round one. It’s possible a round two knockout would be enough, but that’s less of a guarantee.
There’s enough variance in striking exchanges that I still think Page is worth a look, but my action will be very dependent on the field. My assumption is that Page will end up somewhat popular, given his newcomer status and line value, in which case, I will be underweight.
I just hate relying on fighters with such small windows to reach the optimal lineup, especially when the field likes them a lot. There are so many live underdogs on this slate and several with more exciting fantasy matchups.
Page is a fine boom or bust option but I am pretty nervous about it and I won’t be rostering him at a high rate.
Holland at 8.5k feels more expensive than he should be, given his betting odds. It’s possible the public avoids him for this reason, and because he’s never shown a willingness to grapple which is where he’d have the most obvious advantage.
I don’t feel great about him either, if I’m being honest. I think Page will limit the strikes Holland is able to land early, which will impact his floor and ceiling. A knockout win is possible, but it’s a tough ask.
The main reason why I would want to play Holland is just on that off chance he decides to grapple. If that happens, he has a legitimate ceiling for 8.5k. He also may carry leverage against a higher owned Page, which interests me.
Holland is ultimately a sketchy option, with some finishing equity at +210 ITD, but he has to go out there and take the fight to Page if he wants to succeed from a DraftKings perspective.
I don’t mind mixing Holland in as a light leverage target, but I think the most likely outcome is that he fights a little cautiously, doesn’t grapple, and fails to reach a ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holland by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Fight Odds: Maddalena -183, Burns +157
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Maddalena 8.6k, Burns 7.6k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a classic prospect vs veteran matchup here as the surging Jack Della Maddalena will be taking on former title contender Gilbert Burns.
Capable of fighting out of both stances, I mostly consider Maddalena a striker who likes to use his hands. He is a skilled and powerful boxer. He likes to use his jab, especially when he switches to southpaw. You saw a lot of this in his UFC debut. He also mixes in his body shots well.
He really likes to land his punches in close quarters. He lands 7.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.83 in return, defending strikes at 67 percent.
Maddalena is just reliable to put up volume which is great to see, and he can keep up a good pace for 15 minutes. He also has power. Maddalena isn’t really an offensive wrestler, and I don’t expect it to be a path to victory for him at this level.
I am a bit concerned with Maddalena’s takedown defense and defensive grappling though. He showed some holes in his defensive grappling on the regionals and on the Contender Series. Then in his fight against Bassil Hafez, who took that fight on short notice, Maddalena was taken down three times and controlled for 6:48.
Maddalena also showed some bad fight IQ in that fight by jumping guillotines and ending up on his back after successfully defending a takedown. It was a pretty bad look.
However, Hafez attempted 20 takedowns in that fight and only landed three. Jack defended most of the takedowns coming his way and showed some decent defensive grappling at times. I just hate when Jack is actually grounded and how deep he allows opponents in on his hips on double legs. He needs to clean up his defensive wrestling.
Maddalena will be taking on UFC veteran Gilbert Burns. Burns is a decent striker and he has really improved his striking over the years. He lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.34 in return. Those aren’t great metrics. However, Burns has fought good competition.
I consider him a competent striker. He has a lot of power in his hands and is very fast. He also has good calf kicks and has brutalized some fighters with his calf kicks.
I thought Burns looked pretty terrible on the feet against Belal Muhammad though, but he apparently suffered an injury early in that fight, so who knows.
I do think Burns’ chin is a bit suspect. He has been knocked out by Usman and Hooker. Those are his only KO losses so his durability isn’t terrible or anything. However, I just feel like he is a guy who can be hurt. Chimaev also hurt him. So I don’t totally trust his durability.
The best part of Burns’ game is his grappling. He is a BJJ world champion and is actually a pretty good wrestler considering he comes from a BJJ background. Burns lands 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of landing takedowns, getting the back, and riding position or threatening with submissions.
His takedowns are honestly impressive. He has a super powerful level change and has taken down a lot of good fighters.
Burns only defends takedowns at 47 percent, but he is a decent scrambler and threatening enough off his back to not get dominated on the mat by anyone. I do think Burns is a bit susceptible to ground-and-pound though, especially if he gets tired or hurt. I have seen him on his back before and he conceded some shots and looked a little off.
This is a binary fight. On the feet, outside of a big shot landing by Burns, Maddalena should be at a clear advantage. Maddalena just produces way more offense, is a more skilled boxer, and is more durable and powerful than Burns. I honestly think Maddalena will beat Burns up badly if this stays standing.
Burns has considerable grappling upside here though, and I almost picked him to win straight. Burns’ double leg is strong and Maddalena is susceptible to that type of takedown. Maddalena also allows advances of position, and I really think Burns has a great chance to land a takedown and get to a dominant position.
Other guys who obtained dominant positions against Maddalena didn’t put the finishing touches on him. Guys have literally had full arm-triangles locked in on Maddalena and failed to finish. I think Burns is by far the most dangerous submission grappler that Maddalena has faced, and I think Burns has a real shot for a submission here. I have gone back and forth on the fight.
The reason I went with Maddalena is because Burns doesn’t attempt 20 takedowns per fight like Hafez. He attempts more in the six takedown range, and I think Maddalena’s defense is good enough to stop some of those takedowns and just potentially survive. Burns is also older now at 38 years old and looked terrible in his last matchup.
I also think Maddalena is capable of defending takedowns if he doesn’t do anything dumb. So I ultimately sided with Maddalena. This is a really tough fight to call though, and I think a Burns submission may come here.
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On DraftKings, this is potentially one of my favorite fights on the slate and I’m hoping it will get lost in the shuffle a bit with so many other great matchups.
What I like most is the binary nature which Tim described, and I have the same general outlook as he does.
Standing, although Burns could make it competitive, Maddalena is simply a more dangerous striker and he should have legitimate knockout equity. The concern is with Maddalena’s defensive wrestling, and he’s been put in terrible positions on the ground by much lesser opponents than Burns.
I think I have to lean with Burns for that reason. Burns is arguably one of the best submission grapplers in the sport. If Maddalena cannot defend his takedowns, Burns will win.
Burns is priced at 7.6k and is among my favorite underdogs on the slate. He will probably be popular to a degree but he’s priced next to some values in Page and Oleksiejczuk, and he’s not far away from Poirier. I think this will limit his ownership to a degree.
For me, it’s just about the upside anyway. If Burns wins, it should be a high-paced fight that comes with takedowns, control, and hopefully a finish. Burns is +210 to win ITD which is good for this price.
I like Burns a lot at 7.6k and will aim to be above the field.
Maddalena is a great play as well at 8.6k, though he’s limited to a knockout to be optimal most likely. Volume will likely not be enough in a decision, and he has almost no wrestling equity against Burns.
The difference between him and some other boom or bust options is just in my confidence of his achieving the knockout. Burns’ defense is pretty questionable, as is his durability, and Maddalena is just a super dangerous boxer. I honestly love Maddalena as a fighter too.
So although I slightly prefer Burns and I like Burns’ value, I do believe that if Maddalena wins, it’s likely to come by knockout. At 8.6k, with a +140 ITD line, he rates out well for me and it would be fine to prioritize him ahead of Burns.
Keep an eye on his moneyline too because of as now, he’s not a clear value, but Pinnacle has his odds boosted a bit above other sites. So if he starts trending toward -200 by fight night, Maddalena will end up chalky, while Burns could be the leverage side.
For now, I expect both to be moderately owned given their respective styles and prices, and it’s a matchup I plan on prioritizing as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Burns by Arm-Triangle, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong
Fight Odds: Yan -126, Yadong +110
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Yan 8.3k, Yadong 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I actually kind of feel bad for Petr Yan. During his championship run, he had fans who were annoying and thought he was untouchable. He now has lost four of his last five fights and people seem to be jumping off the bandwagon as he is now a pick ‘em against Song Yadong, which would have seemed unfathomable a couple of years ago.
I am surprisingly going to defend Yan here though. He was disqualified against Sterling in a fight he was surely going to win. He beat Cory Sandhagen which is a great win. He then lost to Sterling in the rematch in a very close fight where he was body triangled twice. He lost to Sean O’Malley in a fight he was -1000 going into the judge’s scorecards. He then got dominated by Merab which is the only fight he really lost in a non-controversial manner.
Merab is the best round winner in the UFC so there is no shame there. The other three guys Yan fought are all solidified top five bantamweights, and Yan honestly probably displayed superiority against all of them. I think I am just trying to say that Yan is potentially underrated by the MMA market right now from a betting perspective, and I think I am going to pick him to win this weekend.
Yan is a well-rounded fighter with an endless gas tank. He also has the power to consistently hurt and finish opponents. Yan lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.26 in return. He defends strikes at 59 percent.
Those are good metrics given that Yan has fought solid competition as well. Merab also kind of made those metrics worse as Merab landed 175 significant strikes on Yan. Yan is simply a good boxer with a relentless pace. He utilizes a shell type of boxing guard to defend his head, and he’ll just pressure and go to work with his hands. He is a great technical boxer.
I do think Yan is more suitable to win five round fights than three round fights though. Over five rounds, I would favor him over most bantamweights in the world. In three rounds, I think a few guys are live to beat him for a couple of reasons.
First, in five rounds, those extra rounds just allow Yan to wear down his opponents with his pace. Obviously, three round fights do not allow Yan to use his cardio as a weapon nearly as much.
Furthermore, Yan is a builder and sometimes it takes him a round or two to get his range and pressure in flow. We have seen Yan give away round one several times, including to Aljamain Sterling in fight two and to Cory Sandhagen. That is a dangerous thing to do in three rounds where rounds in the bank are critical.
Yan is also a capable grappler. He has fantastic TDD at 85 percent and is really difficult to keep on the mat (unless you get a body triangle like Aljo did). Yan is also a capable offensive wrestler. He lands 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about three takedowns per fight.
He isn’t a traditional offensive wrestler but he is capable, especially when he has his opponents tired. He also has RUTHLESS ground-and-pound in top position which he showed against Jose Aldo.
Yan will be taking on Song Yadong. Yadong is one of the better Chinese fighters in the UFC. I pretty much consider him a striker, and a pretty good one. He uses his athleticism and fast twitch gifts to spring in and out to land his shots. He has good straight punches and some decent kicks as well.
Yadong lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.73 in return. He defends strikes at a decent 57 percent. He is clearly solid on the feet and has some solid power.
Yadong doesn’t offensively wrestle that much and only lands 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think his wrestling is really good enough to land takedowns against above-average fighters / defensive grapplers in the division. However, he did rely on his wrestling in his last fight against Chris Gutierrez to win a decision.
Yadong’s defensive grappling is okay. He defends takedowns at 73 percent but he scrambles up decently. However, he was beaten up on the mat late against Stamann. I think his defensive grappling is decent but it will maybe be an issue against the better wrestlers of this division. However, it did look better against Sandhagen and Simon.
I still just question Yadong’s quality of competition. He hasn’t beaten all that many great volume strikers. Sandhagen doubled him up at range. His last three wins came against Marlon Moraes, Ricky Simon, and Chris Gutierrez. He actually was doubled up at range against Gutierrez as well. Him winning those fights tell me nothing about how he stacks up against Petr Yan.
That just makes me hesitant to pick him against Yan. Yan has some issues. He has lost a lot recently and he is a slow starter. However, Yan is going to be very hard to grapple so Yadong is either going to have to knock Yan out or outstrike him to a decision. Yan seems tough as nails so a knockout seems unlikely.
Furthermore, Yan consistently outlands or competes with excellent volume strikers. He may even be a better wrestler than Yadong. So I just feel like I have to pick Yan here. We will likely get a striking fight where Yan’s distance striking numbers have been comparable or even better than Yadong’s against stiffer competition.
This will probably be close though so this isn’t a strong take. We may very well just get a back and forth striking affair that goes to a split decision. However, I think Yan is more proven as a striker and I think him running away with the fight is more likely than vice versa. I just really doubt Yadong ever dominates this fight. I am going to go with Yan here to get back on track as people may be disrespecting him this weekend.
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On DraftKings, I suppose I am not as interested in this matchup as I thought I might be, considering Yan and Yadong are generally two explosive strikers with scoring upside.
Matched up against each other though, I am not convinced we see one side dominate.
In three rounds especially, I just don’t see the volume from either side being enough to compete for the optimal lineup. I wouldn’t project either guy to clear 100 sig. strikes landed which means without a knockdown or takedowns, we could see a decision in the 70 point range.
Wrestling isn’t guaranteed either, but if it comes from one side, I do think it will be Yan.
He’s not necessarily the type to hold you down for long periods but he can dump you on the mat, and we’ve seen some upside from him in that regard before. Yadong isn’t weak as a defensive grappler, but I wouldn’t call him strong either.
So the most likely manner in which an extended fight becomes optimal is if Yan can initiate a wrestling game, land five takedowns, and still accrue a fair amount of strikes. He could theoretically approach a 100 point threshold in that type of win, but it’s not a super likely outcome.
The other outcome would be a knockout, which definitely feels realistic because both sides are capable of dishing out damage. Neither side is usually on the wrong end of a big KO though, and that’s why the books have ultimately lined this one at -220 to go the distance.
Yan at 8.3k and Yadong at 7.9k both carry a +360 ITD line, which is honestly pretty poor. Both are big names but because this card is strong with a lot of options, I’m not sure the public will be too excited to roster these fighters as they will rate out poorly on paper.
Of the two, my preferred play is Yan. I think I would favor him slightly of the two to earn a knockdown, if there is one, and I think he has more grappling upside. At 8.3k, he’s a relatively boom or bust target but one who has shown boom upside in the past.
He’s a fine secondary target but in this range there are still other priorities for me.
Yadong at 7.9k feels even more boom or bust and I’m really unsure if I can pull the trigger on him often.
His last two decision wins have scored 78 and 76 points, and if he scored that this weekend, I don’t think I would want him in my lineups.
There’s enough variance in striking exchanges for him to randomly land a big shot but outside of that, I am just concerned Yadong can’t reach a ceiling in this matchup. His a bit too expensive for my liking and although he’s still viable, there are several other underdogs I prefer personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yan by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida
Fight Odds: Almeida -107, Blaydes -107
Odds to Finish: -230
DraftKings Salaries: Blaydes 8.2k, Almeida 8k
Weight Class: HW
On any other UFC card, this matchup between Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida would likely be slotted into the main event, and we are very lucky that it’s headlining the preliminary card on a stacked slate this weekend.
Jailton Almeida is considered by most to be a blue chip prospect in this heavyweight division, and he has largely dominated his UFC competition to this point. He’s 6-0 within the promotion, and he won his first five fights inside the distance, which included four first-round finishes.
Almeida is a super athlete, who’s shown the ability to take down and dominate most of his competition on the ground. He’s averaged 2.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he’s landed those takedowns at a 55 percent accuracy.
On top, he’s able to transition to the mount, or the back, and four of his last seven victories have come by the RNC (rear-naked choke), which is one of my favorite submissions in MMA.
In this division, having a basic wrestling game can put you into title contention. Having a strong wrestling game, and a strong athletic background can make you the champion, as there are just not many opponents who have the skills or physicality to neutralize those tools. Almeida has them, and I’m quite certain he is going to continue winning.
However, brute strength and physicality can only carry you so far if you do not have the cardio to maintain a high-paced style, which I’m not sure Almeida has. His most recent victory against Derrick Lewis was pretty concerning, and I think Almeida is lucky that this matchup is only scheduled for the standard three rounds.
Against Lewis, Almeida was able to land takedowns and get on top of him swiftly. He transitioned to dominant positions and threatened for a finish, but Lewis survived. From there, Almeida seemed to quickly run out of ideas.
As the fight progressed, Almeida became visibly fatigued, despite not being tested at all. Lewis never even landed more than six head strikes in any single round, and Almeida spent 21 of those 25 minutes in a dominant control position.
Granted, Almeida still won the fight and only had one real hiccup, which came in round three when he slipped off Lewis’ back and ended up on the bottom. Lewis spent most of the fight playing the role of a dead fish, laying underneath Almeida and waiting for the clock to run out.
That’s still a major red flag in my book though, because we already knew that Almeida could be dominant early. What we weren’t sure about was how he would fare over an extended period, or how he would fare if he’s forced into striking exchanges.
That fight against Lewis gives me major concern as to how Almeida will look if he’s pushed by an opponent with more capability than Lewis who can survive his early onslaught.
Enter Curtis Blaydes.
I’ve been very high on Blaydes for the majority of his UFC career because he shares similar attributes to the ones that’s made Almeida successful. Most notably, Blaydes won a high school state wrestling title in Illinois, and then won a Junior College National Championship in 2012.
Yeah, it’s only Junior College, but that’s a better pedigree than the vast majority of UFC athletes, let alone heavyweights, and it’s been a major reason why Blaydes has seen success in this sport. He currently averages 5.93 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and he famously landed 14 takedowns in a 25-minute fight against a dangerous kickboxer in Alexander Volkov.
Blaydes’ ability to land takedowns, and control opponents over an extended period of time is his best attribute, and I’ve been fortunate enough to back him often during his 12-4 UFC run.
Unfortunately, nobody gets in Blaydes’ way more than Blaydes himself. Like many other fighters with a grappling skill set, Blaydes has fallen in love with his hands, and will choose to box even when he’s at a disadvantage.
It’s gotten him brutally knocked out a few times, which includes his most recent loss against Sergei Pavlovich.
Blaydes is actually a decent boxer, and his metrics are fine. He lands 3.5 sig. strikes per minute at distance, while absorbing 3.3 per minute. His striking defense in total is 59 percent.
For a wrestler, Blaydes is a competent striker and he’s improved greatly throughout his career in that realm. But he tends to take a lot of damage, he gets hurt often, and he’s been knocked out in multiple fights where he could have prioritized his wrestling game a little more.
I don’t put much stock into interviews but I already saw an interview with Blaydes where he said he was going to use his wrestling defensively in this matchup, so he can stand and strike with Almeida, where he feels he has the advantage.
Perhaps that will be a good strategy in this particular matchup, but it still makes me uncomfortable. Almeida is still physical, and powerful, and I don’t trust Blaydes’ durability.
I don’t expect Almeida to play around on the feet though, and most likely, his game plan will be to outwrestle Blaydes and lock up a finish in the first round, like he’s done against most other opponents.
Honestly, that might work. Blaydes has only faced a few takedown attempts in the UFC, but he hasn’t defended them well at 33 percent. It’s hard to watch some of those takedown attempts from Cody East in 2016 and think Almeida can’t land takedowns here as well. Granted, that was many years ago.
Simply by pursuing a wrestling game, Almeida is likely to have some form of success though. I have to project him to attempt takedowns at a moderate rate, and because of that, I have to project him to land some of them.
The most likely scenario is that Almeida will have his chance, in the first round, to get on top of Blaydes and pound him out. Blaydes will likely give up his back to attempt to stand up, so Almeida fishing for another RNC submission is more than possible. As is throwing a bunch of ground-and-pound for a TKO stoppage.
If Almeida can’t finish Blaydes quickly though, Blaydes might be the outright favorite. There’s no reason to suggest Almeida can box with Blaydes for multiple rounds. Blaydes surely has superior cardio.
And we’ve seen Almeida slip up twice now in grappling exchanges and end up on the bottom, and frankly, he didn’t look great. Blaydes may not chase takedowns, but even using his wrestling defensively could lead to him ending up on top of Almeida, and from there, if Almeida is tired, maybe it’s Blaydes who will secure a dominant position and chase a TKO finish.
If this was a five round fight, I would love Blaydes in this spot and would clearly favor him in the betting markets. With only three rounds, there’s more hesitation as a dominant round one from Almeida could be enough to carry him to a decision win.
Still, I think the most likely outcomes are Almeida dominating Blaydes early and finishing him on the mat, or attempting that path, failing, getting tired, and losing.
I can’t say for sure whether a Blaydes’ win would come in the form of a knockout or a decision, but a knockout is entirely possible. Tired fighters cannot defend themselves, and it’s very possible Almeida exhausts himself chasing an early finish.
I will hesitantly back Blaydes once again to survive an early storm, but I do expect Almeida to have his chance, and I respect his grappling and athleticism enough to believe he can turn that chance into another stoppage win.
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On DraftKings, I think this is a strong fight to target considering the -230 line for it to end inside the distance, combined with solid mid-range prices.
Almeida will very likely be the higher owned fighter at 8k, especially if he ends up as the favorite by fight night.
His box score is incredible – he’s scored 135, 104, 125, 121, 114 and 118 in his UFC career, with no losses. His ITD line has been bet down to +135 from +175 earlier in the week, which makes more sense to me, and I think the public is going to flock to him.
It’s very possible that Almeida ends up as one of, if not the highest owned fighter in this mid-range. And I can’t blame anyone for it because he has a track record of smashing.
I don’t love the matchup for Almeida but the problem is, his win condition is likely an early finish. So IF Almeida wins, I do think he will score enough to compete for the optimal lineup, and I cannot avoid him for that reason.
If you are confident in Almeida, I would recommend playing him at a pretty high rate. Of course there are still ways for him to fail, which would likely come in an extended fight, but he’s only won one decision in 20 pro victories. The more likely outcome is a finish, and a score competitive with the optimal lineup.
Just know that pairing him with O’Malley and Saint Denis will be chalky constructions, so try to be semi-unique elsewhere in your lineup if you’re interested in playing all these guys.
I am not comfortable with Almeida winning this fight, but I do love his upside for 8k, and I’m not willing to take a major stand against the field. I’ll have moderate exposure.
Blaydes at 8.2k may or may not be popular. A lot of people know him, and he rates out fine with a +185 ITD line, which was bet up from +140 earlier in the week. But his box scores aren’t as strong as Almeida’s and I’m not sure many people will be excited to take the risk of him stopping Almeida.
The lower owned Blaydes is in comparison to Almeida, the more excited I will be to play him personally.
Despite the ITD odds, Blaydes has less of a chance to win early, which is the other problem. He could oustrike Almeida and win by decision, and fail to reach 80 points on DK. So he could bust, even if he pulls off the win.
That will force my hand and limit my exposure to Blaydes, but if he becomes a leverage target, I am still interested generally. Just as there are ways to fail, there are ways to succeed, which would likely occur if Almeida gets very tired and Blaydes is able to pour on offense for a finish.
At 8.2k, he doesn’t need 120 points to contend for the optimal lineup either. 90-100 points might do the trick. I consider Blaydes a bit risky but his style and the matchup at least carry some hope of a ceiling.
This is a tricky matchup but if you buy into the overall -230 ITD line, it’s a relatively strong one to target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blaydes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber
Fight Odds: Barber -200, Cerminara +170
Odds to Finish: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Barber 8.8k, Cerminara 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am one who is pretty numb to fighter interviews. I don’t put much stock into anything like that when predicting a fight and I won’t do it here either.
However, it was a bit heartbreaking to hear Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) in an interview this week explain how she recently had two miscarriages, and she is now fighting to distract her mind from it. I can’t imagine how tough it has been on her and where her head is going into this fight. I wish her the best.
As a fighter, Cerminara is a volume striker who uses a lot of footwork and will mix in a healthy dose of punches and kicks. She lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.41 in return. She defends strikes at 63 percent.
Cerminara is notorious for screaming on every strike attempt (even when they miss) and I honestly think it helps her get rounds on the judges’ scorecards. Cerminara is 10-3 in decisions and she actually has three decision wins where she was outlanded in strikes lol.
I still do think Cerminara is a solid striker and will outstrike a lot of the girls in this division. However, I am just pointing out that she has been fortunate with her screaming style on the judges’ scorecards.
Cerminara is a pretty competent grappler, but she doesn’t use her wrestling much offensively (outside of her fight against Antonia Shevchenko). She only lands 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes and I don’t expect her to go to her grappling or be effective with her takedowns unless she is fighting weak grapplers.
Cerminara defends takedowns at 54 percent, which isn’t great, but I do think she has improved her takedown defense to a degree in recent fights, as she uses a lot of footwork to keep distance between herself and her opponent. However, I still do not totally trust her defensive wrestling and I do think she can be taken down on well-timed attempts.
On the mat, Cerminara has a pretty good guard and has only allowed a few passes in her UFC career (mostly to Valentina Shevchenko). Cerminara can be controlled on the mat but she can at least limit her opponents from advancing, landing ground and pound, and threatening with submissions.
Cerminara will be taking on Maycee Barber. Barber is a decently well-rounded fighter. She lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.72 in return. She defends strikes at 54 percent. I personally don’t think Barber is the best range striker. She is okay. She definitely hits hard and can outstrike the lower tier fighters of this division at range.
However, Barber is much better as a striker in close quarters and in the clinch where she can use her physicality advantage. For example, she outlanded Montana De La Rosa 40-10 in the clinch, but only 4-3 at distance. Maverick outlanded Barber 43-26 at distance, but Barber did good work in the clinch there too. Barber just does much better work in the clinch than at range.
Barber is a decent grappler. She lands 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. She isn’t the best takedown artist but again she is very physical. If she manages to get in top position, she is capable of landing ruthless ground-and-pound. She is fully capable of finishing fights from top position.
Barber defends takedowns at 45 percent. I do think good grapplers can probably have success against her. She has been controlled on the mat in pre-UFC fights. Even Jessica Eye held her down at the end of round two of their fight. However, Barber isn’t a bad defensive grappler and again her physicality really helps her out in grappling situations.
I just really think Barber will continue to do well in fights where she can use her physicality in the clinch and get occasional top position. Good grapplers can probably have success against her and good range strikers probably can too though. However, Barber always has that power and physicality to beat girls up and turn fights in her favor.
This is kind of a tough fight to call actually. I wonder where Cerminara’s head is at given her recent issue outside the cage. It is hard to know.
At range, Cerminara is honestly probably the more skilled distance striker. I think her just winning a competitive distance striking fight is entirely possible. I think Barber’s -200 betting line is a no bet for that reason.
Barber just has such an X-factor with her power and physicality though. I could easily just see her hurting Cerminara on the inside or randomly getting top position and landing some big shots. Barber just needs a moment or two to completely swing a round or obtain a finish, so I think I am going to pick her for those reasons.
Barber also just has a higher ceiling in this matchup as well. If anyone obtains a finish, it almost surely will be Barber. Cerminara is probably limited to winning a competitive decision so Barber is the pick for me.
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On DraftKings, I’ll be curious to see whether Barber gets much attention because she’s not the most obvious fantasy target, but she has some solid line value at 8.8k and is coming off a big score.
And considering what Cerminara has talked about, saying she is only fighting for a distraction, there will be a lot of people who target Barber primarily for that reason. I would consider it already baked into the betting line though.
Barber at 8.8k interests me a little bit because she has finishing upside within her style. She’s mean and is one of the more damaging fighters in this division. She is only +265 to win ITD in this matchup, which isn’t spectacular, but it’s still a reasonable outcome.
It’s probably the only way Barber contends with the optimal lineup though. She might have wrestling equity but Cerminara has a decent guard and could theoretically neutralize Barber there. At range Barber isn’t great.
I want Barber to hurt Cerminara and get a TKO finish, probably with ground-and-pound. That would contend for the optimal.
Because she’s 8.8k, she’ll fit into some more mid-range based constructions and could potentially be semi-contrarian with big names surrounding her, though most are more expensive.
I could also see people being willing to play her with a -200 line ahead of fighters like Pereira and Holland, so I’ll probably project her in the low 20s. It’s not contrarian but it’s not chalk.
And I’m fine to mix her in. As annoying as it sounds, Cerminara might not be mentally prepared for this fight. It’s not something I think is predictive, but I do think there’s a compelling argument that Barber carries some finishing/domination upside in the fight.
She’s still only a secondary play but I’ll probably aim to be near the field on Barber at 8.8k and I wouldn’t be shocked if she won decisively.
Cerminara at 7.4k will probably be the lowest owned dog on this slate outside of the super punts, and I could even see her falling below 10 percent ownership.
She has very limited finishing equity at +900, and historically she has no wrestling equity at all. The most realistic scenario for upside for Cerminara is her landing 80 strikes and taking a decision, which would only score 60-70.
It’s just not enough for me to get excited. Not on this slate where we need to project multiple dog winners.
If you want to be purely contrarian, Cerminara is in consideration. Or if you’re looking for a potential floor target, Cerminara has mild intrigue. But I can’t make exciting cases for her even with those attributes and I will probably lean closer to fading her outright with a limited portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barber by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Odds: Gamrot -455, Dos Anjos +346
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Gamrot 9.4k, Dos Anjos 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have new school vs. old school here as Mateusz Gamrot will square off against the veteran and former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos this weekend.
Gamrot is a pretty good fighter, and he comes from a grappling background as he wrestled in his homeland of Poland. He also is a solid no gi BJJ competitor who has won several tournaments in Europe, and has competed against some of the best grapplers in the world in ADCC. So he is a well-rounded grappler and it shows in his fights.
Gamrot lands 4.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 15 takedowns per fight. Therefore, he is literally attempting a takedown every single minute which is a style that I love. I also love the style even more when someone has the cardio to implement that high of a pace, which Gamrot definitely does. This guy landed two takedowns in each of round four, and five against Arman Tsarukyan, so Gamrot’s cardio is clearly a strength of his.
I don’t think Gamrot’s top control is great but he has generally been trying to control really good grapplers. I definitely think he can control lesser grapplers in this division.
The weakness of Gamrot’s game is his striking. He only lands 2.97 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.17 in return. He does defend strikes at a decent 60 percent. Gamrot isn’t a terrible striker and he does have a little bit of power. However, he just doesn’t put up a ton of activity. He only landed 33 and 52 significant strikes in his two fights that went to three round decisions. Those matchups were against good competition, but I just don’t totally love his lack of activity in striking exchanges.
Again, he is capable, as he even struck competitively with Rafael Fiziev in his last fight, but he just doesn’t have a high ceiling as a striker and his volume is just a bit limited.
Gamrot will be taking on UFC veteran Rafael Dos Anjos. I can’t believe RDA is still fighting at a high level. I watched him back in 2008 when I was in HIGH SCHOOL, when he made his UFC debut. This guy’s longevity has been incredible.
RDA is simply well rounded and doesn’t have many holes. He is competent as a striker and as a grappler. He is also in tremendous physical condition and can fight a hard 25 minutes in his sleep. He has fought five rounds on nine different occasions.
RDA lands 3.52 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.19 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. I would consider RDA a decent striker.
In his prime, he had pretty ruthless leg kicks. I don’t think he is an elite striker today and he has probably declined as a striker to a degree as he has gotten older, however, he can still compete on the feet, especially with his pace. He even bothered Vicente Luque down the stretch in his last fight with his striking.
As a grappler, RDA is a BJJ black belt and is sound offensively and defensively. He lands 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about six takedowns per fight. He has decent takedowns and a decent top game, and he can hold position well on the mat. He really thrives with his arm triangle, especially against opponents who he has worn down.
RDA defends takedowns at 56 percent though. That is not a great number on paper. However, RDA has been through the ringer when it comes to grapplers, having fought Kamaru Usman, Khabib, and Colby Covington who are among the elite wrestlers in MMA.
He is the only man alive to fight all of those three. I generally consider RDA a decent defensive grappler who can scramble up pretty well. It is really only the top grapplers who have generally had success against him.
I really think RDA’s best asset is his cardio and pace. His striking and grappling all work because of the pace that he sets. It is really the glue to his game.
However, it was weird watching RDA get outwrestled by Luque in his last fight, as Luque isn’t considered a strong wrestler. Luque basically never took anyone down for his whole career, and then took RDA down eight times in 2023.
That just makes me have to pick Gamrot in this matchup. I feel like if Gamrot is attempting his usual takedown volume, he can probably land 3-5 takedowns and at least consolidate mild to moderate top time. His takedown upside alone makes him the rightful favorite in this matchup.
I still do think RDA is skilled enough as a grappler to neutralize Gamrot to a degree. Sure, RDA will probably get taken down, but I don’t think it is a guarantee Gamrot just easily holds position after that. I also do think RDA can strike competitively with Gamrot, so RDA sprawling and brawling to a striking based decision does seem realistic to me.
However, Gamrot has a lot of takedown upside here, and he’ss the much younger and fresher fighter. Those reasons alone make me want to pick him. My guess is that Gamrot strikes competitively with RDA, and lands more takedowns to win a decision.
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On DraftKings, Gamrot is one of the most expensive fighters on the board at 9.4k, and he’s among the biggest favorites on the slate at -470 to win.
Wrestling is a great way to score on DraftKings, and Gamrot is going to project for among the most wrestling equity of any fighter on this slate.
However, he’s shown a little bit of a thin ceiling, and this arguably isn’t an elite matchup for him.
Gamrot is only +375 to win ITD, which compared to other fighters in this range, is a very poor line. But it makes sense based on his lack of knockout equity, and RDA’s historic strength as a grappler.
I’m always hesitant to fade fighters with wrestling equity though, because they have lots of ways to score. If Gamrot happens to win ITD, it would come from takedowns, ground strikes, and control, and that could lead to a smash score.
His chances of winning inside the distance are simply not strong though.
In a decision, I still think Gamrot can put up a decent number. He might honestly have 5-8 takedown upside, which would factor in if RDA is allowing those initial takedowns, but scrambling back up to his feet quickly.
Gamrot has scored 107 in a decision win before, which came with six takedowns, so I definitely am not completely ruling him out.
But there are some other priorities for me on this slate, and clearly there are many cheaper options. It’s possible Gamrot looks great, scores 105 points, and misses out on the optimal lineup due to pricing anyway.
Given his moneyline and wrestling equity, his floor seems pretty strong though and he’s definitely in consideration for cash games, and as a potential pivot if he projects to be lower owned in this range, with ownership getting sucked into the five round favorites below.
I don’t expect to end up with a heavy amount of exposure to Gamrot in large fields, and consider him more of a secondary option this week, but he does have a strong floor with enough wrestling equity to put himself in optimal contention if things play out in the exact right way.
Dos Anjos at 6.8k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. There are so many other underdogs with more realistic win conditions and finishing equity tied to those win conditions, that I don’t feel the need to chase a +355 dog with a +450 ITD line too often.
Dos Anjos is more of a neutralizer anyway. Landing 1-2 takedowns and 60 significant strikes in a decision feels like the most realistic type of win for RDA, which would score 60-70 DraftKings points. At 6.8k, you’d be happy about that, but any other underdog win is likely to best him and I’m expecting several underdog wins on a large and competitive 14-fight slate.
I suppose you could also consider Dos Anjos as a cash punt based on the -275 line for this fight to go the distance. I just struggle to see him producing a ton of offense, and he is quite likely to be controlled on the mat for periods of time, meaning his floor in a loss still won’t project great.
RDA is the most talented and experienced fighter in this bottom range, so considering him as a low-end salary-saver has some viability, but there are many other matchups I would prefer to target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gamrot by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips
Fight Odds: Phillips -213, Munhoz +180
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Phillips 9.1k, Munhoz 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a good fight here in the bantamweight division between Pedro Munhoz and Kyler Phillips.
Munhoz is a decently well-rounded fighter and a very tough guy. He is extremely durable and has never been finished in 28 pro fights.
I don’t think Munhoz is particularly good anywhere though and he is too hittable for my liking. He lands 5.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.14 in return. I like that Munhoz lands a lot of strikes but absorbing 6+ significant strikes per fight is too many.
Munhoz’s boxing is just not good and he gets hit to the head too cleanly and too often. Cruz, Aldo, and even Frankie Edgar just exposed his head strike / boxing defense and teed off on him. I do think Munhoz has good calf kicks though. It is by far the best aspect of his game.
Munhoz is a competent grappler, but he thrives more as a defensive grappler rather than an offensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 82 percent and is seriously hard to take down. He only lands 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes though and only lands takedowns at 19 percent. Munhoz is just not a great offensive wrestler.
Munhoz is still a tough guy though and is well-rounded. He has also been fighting the best in the world for years so anytime he gets a step down in competition he is live to give a veteran lesson, like he did to Chris Gutierrez in April of last year.
Munhoz will be taking on Kyler Phillips. Phillips is a decent fighter. He is well-rounded and athletic. He lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.36 in return. He defends strikes at 61 percent. I like Phillips’ striking. He is fast twitched and serviceable. He is just really fast and athletic. His speed helps him a lot.
I do have some criticism for Phillip’s love for spinning shit though. God man, why do fighters do this, especially when they have cardio concerns? Phillips calls himself the “Matrix” which is fine as the Matrix is a cool movie. However, throwing low-percentage spinning kicks and overexerting yourself and gassing out is not cool. So I wish he would cut that out.
I do think Phillips slows down in fights to a degree. However, I don’t think his cardio is completely awful. He was fine in his Else, Silva, and Rojo fights. He slowed down slightly vs Yadong, but not terribly and it was a battle. The main time Phillips slowed down was against Raulian Paiva. However, it was mostly because Phillips nearly knocked Paiva out and went in for the kill and over exerted himself chasing the finish. I think it was more of a pacing issue than a cardio issue.
Phillips is also a good grappler. Phillips lands 2.87 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about six takedowns per fight. I really like the timing of Phillips’ level changes and double legs as well. They are quite good.
Phillips holds a BJJ black belt and is quite good at passing in top position, landing GnP, taking the back, and threatening with submissions. He can really take advantage of weak grapplers.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think this is going to stay on the feet. Munhoz is so hard to take and hold down, and he isn’t a strong offensive wrestler himself. So my guess is this stays standing. Phillips may actually not want to shoot here either as Munhoz’s guillotine is pretty nasty.
Honestly, I think the striking will be competitive. I like Phillips’ athleticism, youth, and speed. However, Munhoz probably has a better gas tank and he has a ton of experience. I also think both guys are tough enough where this will likely go to the cards.
Honestly, I think the line is too wide here. Yes, Phillips is younger and more athletic, but he is outstriking lesser competition than Munhoz. I honestly expect this to be back-and-forth and very competitive. I am expecting a tight decision.
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On DraftKings, Phillips is one of the top end fighters who I don’t expect to get a lot of attention.
Most people probably view this line as being a little too wide, with Munhoz having a legitimate chance to make it competitive. Plus, Munhoz is tough to hold down and nearly impossible to knock out.
Phillips is priced at 9.1k and he’s never topped 100 points in his UFC career, which people will care about as well, though he’s cleared 90 points a few times.
I actually don’t mind Phillips’ style from an upside standpoint but this is a tough matchup and he won’t have much wrestling equity. He could even get himself in trouble because Munhoz’ guillotine choke is one of the best in the sport.
For Phillips to really smash, he needs a knockout. He is only +300 to win ITD which is not good for this range, and narrative wise there’s no reason to be confident in that outcome.
My only counter point is that Munhoz gets hit a ton. When you absorb more than six strikes per minute like Tim noted, and are approaching 40 years of age, it’s likely that you’re going to start taking more damage. It’s purely a gut feeling but I wouldn’t be stunned if Munhoz got hurt here – he just gets hit way too often for my liking and eventually durability runs out.
Still, Phillips is a pure contrarian option at 9.1k who could be sub 15 percent owned. There are enough strong options in this range that I won’t be able to get to Phillips often with a limited portfolio, but if you need a place to be unique, you could consider a little bit of him.
Munhoz at 7.1k will make a lot of people feel safe, though I don’t think he’ll be chalky with the strength of this range.
And he could win, it’s certainly in the range of outcomes. That would most likely be a competitive decision in which Munhoz lands 80 strikes, and scores 60-70 points. He has a small bit of upside with his submission game but he’s still only +550 to win ITD which is poor.
There is some safety here given the fight is lined -260 to go the distance and Munhoz has scored 40 or more points in a few losses. He’s not a terrible cash consideration though there are other options in this same range who will project similarly, if not better.
My other concern is that Phillips isn’t the type to just stand in front of Munhoz. He’s evasive. He doesn’t absorb strikes at a high rate and his striking defense metrics are good. So I’m not convinced Munhoz has the same volume upside as in past matchups and it might weaken both his floor and ceiling.
Ultimately, Munhoz is cheap enough at 7.1k to be in consideration and he does have some win equity. I’m not in love with his ceiling though and I will gravitate more toward a couple of other options.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Phillips by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins
Fight Odds: Cutelaba -121, Lins +106
Odds to Finish: Under 1.5 RDs -140
DraftKings Salaries: Cutelaba 8.4k, Lins 7.8k
Weight Class: 205
Nobody wants to be The Incredible Hulk more than Ion Cuteleba, who dubbed himself with that nickname and will douse himself in green paint for the weigh-ins, ripping his shirt to pieces in front of the screaming crowd.
He’s an enjoyable fighter to watch too, as most of his fights end in round one or round two, and I think this will be a fun matchup against Philipe Lins on Saturday.
I’ve also had a soft spot for Cutelaba throughout his UFC career, and have appreciated the ups and the downs with his game. He’s typically ferocious early in fights, and four of his last five wins have come by first round knockout.
Many of those aren’t even classic knockouts either, as Cutelaba will often look to mix in his wrestling, take his opponent down and smash them with his hands.
Cutelaba currently lands 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he topped out at eight takedowns landed in a decision win against Devin Clark in 2021. He actually also landed nine takedowns in a draw against Dustin Jacoby too, so his ability to consistently get his opponent to the mat is one of his better attributes.
The problem is that Cutelaba doesn’t have a great top game, and so opponents will generally just scramble their way back up to their feet. Cutelaba isn’t a submission grappling specialist either, so his game plan from top position is generally just to land ground-and-pound.
The other problem is that Cutelaba doesn’t have a great gas tank, and in fact, it’s a weak part of style. He often starts hot, but he can slow down dramatically and generally cannot be trusted outside of the first round.
It’s led to a lot of ugly losses too. Cutelaba has lost three of his past four fights now and all three losses were arguably comebacks, where Cutelaba had some form of success immediately, but couldn’t find the finish, and allowed his opponent to reverse the momentum and take him out.
That’s really the most concerning part. Cutelaba is proving to be breakable.
In the UFC alone, Cutelaba has lost eight times, and seven of those eight losses have come inside the distance. Four losses by submission and three losses by knockout.
So although we can usually count on Cutelaba to start hot and have some success, the general expectation should be that if he can’t earn a knockout himself, he’s going to slow down and lose.
Philipe Lins has found recent success in the UFC after dropping each of his first two bouts in the promotion, he’s since won three consecutive bouts and looks to be in better form.
He came from PFL and was the champion there, where he earned the Million Dollar purse that came with the title. It’s still not the best accolade on the planet, but becoming the champion in any professional organization is noteworthy.
Lins lost his UFC debut to Andrei Arlovski by decision in 2020, and was then knocked out in the first round by Tanner Boser, who was actually Cutelaba’s last victim.
Since then, Lins has beaten Marcin Prachnio and Maxim Grishin by decision, and he knocked out Ovince Saint Preux in the first round as well.
Lins is primarily a boxer, and he’s earned nine career wins by knockout and four by submission. He can wrestle a bit too. Four of his five losses have come by knockout though.
I don’t necessarily consider Lins an elite prospect in this division, but he’s capable everywhere and seems to be improving. I just generally wouldn’t expect lots of volume from him, as he’s only averaging 3.59 sig. strikes per minute.
He landed four takedowns against Prachnio but only went 1/3 on takedowns against in his most recent fight, so his wrestling is hit or miss.
Lins can continue to edge out decisions in this division but he just doesn’t produce enough volume to make me comfortable. More likely, his success will come in the form of knockouts, and I think this matchup sets up well for him to add another one onto his resume.
It simply comes down to the style that we’ve seen from Cutelaba throughout his career. Although it’s possible that Cutelaba suddenly changes that style and fights more cautiously, I can’t project that until I see it happen.
For now, I expect Cutelaba will come forward, throw heavy shots, and try to take Lins down. It’s possible he can hurt Lins, who I noted has been knocked out a handful of times, and score an early finish.
If that doesn’t happen though, I think Lins has the better and more well-rounded game, and considering he’s gone the distance and won recently, I trust Lins cardio far more.
My expectation is that even if Cutelaba can land takedowns, he can’t hold Lins down or finish him easily. If Lins was awful on the ground I’d be more excited about the Cutelaba play, but Lins is defending takedowns at 100 percent in a small sample (four attempts).
There’s still wrestling upside to Cutelaba’s game but I don’t see that being an easy path to victory and I worry it will just make him tired. And the longer this fight goes, the more defensively irresponsible Cutelaba will become.
My gut tells me Lins will survive and if we reach a second round, he might be able to get Cutelaba out of there. It could come in the form of a knockout, or from takedowns and a submission, as Cutelaba is defending takedowns at 77 percent himself.
That’s actually a fine defensive number but the problem is he’s been submitted twice by two fighters who I would not label as great grapplers. It gives me no confidence at all that if Lins gets on top of him, Cutelaba will have the energy to survive.
So I’m going to lean toward the underdog here in Lins to survive and mount another comeback. Of course an early finish from Cutelaba is always in play, but I trust the form of Lins slightly more and I trust the cardio of Lins more at this point as well.
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On DraftKings, I’ll be curious to see where the field lands on this fight because this is actually a rescheduled matchup from last October, and it was canceled in the middle of the event.
The odds and salaries were relatively similar to what they are now, and Cutelaba came in at 38 percent owned, while Lins was 35 percent owned, on an 11-fight slate.
Now with 14 fights on the slate, it’s possible that Cutelaba and Lins won’t project to be as highly owned, but this is still a great matchup on paper and one that’s very likely to end inside the distance with the Under 1.5 rounds prop set at -140.
(Note that as of Thursday afternoon, full ITD odds are not available yet.)
The projected finishing metrics alone will keep the public on this fight, and I expect most other analysts will recommend action on one side or the other.
Cutelaba has the safer path to reaching a ceiling at 8.4k, because his wins generally come early and they come with lots of big actions. He’s scored 108, 127, 119 ,107 and 131 in his last five wins, and any of those results would land him on the optimal lineup.
I am expecting a strong ITD line for Cutelaba, so he will still rate out very well and we can assume his upside is very strong. Even in an extended matchup that Cutelaba wins, he has enough takedown upside that it’s possible he could produce a decent score, like he did in his 127-point decision.
I don’t think this matchup is as good for Cutelaba as that 127 score against Devin Clark, but the point remains that Cutelaba at least has methods to score and if he wins at all, it’s still likely to come ITD and exceed what we’d need from him at 8.4k.
Lins is a little more risky in that he could want to and try to extend the fight, and test Cutelaba’s cardio. Lins only scored 69 points in his most recent decision, so an extended fight is far from a guaranteed smash result.
However, he also landed four takedowns in a recent decision and put up 92 points. A win in round one or round two would very likely put Lins in optimal contention at 7.8k, and that’s a very realistic result. We’ll wait to see what his ITD line will be but I expect it to be decent for his price.
My guess is that the field will be relatively split on this fight. Cutelaba is just an obvious upside target at 8.4k, and Lins at least has the finishing metrics to back up targeting him at 7.8k.
If one side or the other projected to be far higher owned, I would lean toward whichever side was lower. I don’t expect that to be the case, but I do believe Cutelaba will have more public ownership as the favorite, with a longer history of a big DraftKings ceiling.
It’s a situation where you probably don’t want to stray too far from the field. He has clear early finishing upside and I’m not sure you want to risk your entire night fading that outcome.
I’m going to pick Lins to win, so clearly I am OK with matching the field on Cutelaba or coming in a bit underweight there, but I do respect his ceiling more than most fighters in this range and I think having exposure to this matchup in tournaments makes a lot of sense.
Lins is a bit riskier but he’s an underdog I’m eying at 7.8k, and I don’t mind being overweight to this spot if it doesn’t look like the field will be high on him.
The history of Cutelaba breaking after an early surge is hard for me to ignore, and I definitely think Lins is capable of a round one or round two finish. I will be spreading my exposure out in this range but I am comfortable with a moderate amount of Lins, and it wouldn’t be wrong to prioritize this matchup above most others on the slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lins by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Odds: Pereira -144, Oleksiejczuk +125
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.7k, Oleksiejczuk 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Michel Pereira had a bit of a rocky start to his UFC run but has since rattled off six straight wins. He’ll be making his 2nd consecutive appearance up at 185 lbs. as a historic 170 pounder – he’s 7-2 in the UFC and 29-11 as a pro. Michal Oleksiejczuk’s entering his 7th year on the active roster but has had a decent run. He’ll be entering his 5th consecutive fight down at 185 lbs. as a historic 205 pounder – he’s 7-4 in the UFC and 19-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Pereira is a guy I’ve done a bit of a 180 on over the years in certain capacities.
He’s very unorthodox and flashy in what he does as he’ll jump off the cage, throw capoeira kicks and jumping stuff as well. So he’s a bit of a showman at times, but he has dialed that back a bit in recent years.
In general, he’s very athletic, fast, powerful and pushes a good pace, landing 5.09 sig. Strikes per minute at 53 percent. However, he’s had a couple slower paced fights mixed in there as well.
It’s his stance switching and that outside, blitzing striking nature that has given opponents troubles in tracking him down with consistency. In that, he moves well which has allowed him to largely be pretty evasive – eats 3.74 sig. strikes per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. At distance, he defends at 62 percent as well.
He’s also only been KO’d once in 40 pro fights, which is a testament to his numbers and durability – he’s also fought a handful of pretty big hitters in the UFC like Williams, Price, Fialho and Ponz.
However, given his explosive nature, he tends to slow down around the halfway mark of his fights where his actions can become more labored. Although he will fight through fatigue, he’s dropped a round in all four of his last decision wins.
Overall, he’s a unique striker who won’t be an easy out, but has his own issues.
Oleksiejczuk was undersized at 205 lbs., but it hadn’t overtly held him back as he works a pressure, volume-based game. Statistically, he lands 5.12 sig. strikes per minute at 50 percent.
He likes to control the center, walk guys down and keep hands on them. In that, he doesn’t kick much but has some unorthodox boxing.
Because of his “herky jerky” style, he’ll throw from different angles, targeting the body and the head. He’s a southpaw as well which makes his movement patterns a bit more difficult to gauge, at least from a defensive perspective for opponents.
Oleksiejczuk has also shown to possess power with six of his seven UFC wins coming via KO/TKO, and he also reps a 74 percent KO rate as a pro.
Defensively, he eats 4.17 sig. strikes per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate, which is pretty good from a percentage perspective.
Oleksiejczuk will keep his hands up and block shots on his guard, but his striking nature is pretty loose on pocket entry which has gotten him tagged in the past.
The most notable example of this was against OSP who was eventually able to find his striking range in latter parts of the 1st and 2nd rounds. Even in that fight though, Oleksiejczuk was lighting him up early and even hurt OSP. In general though, when guys have gone forward on him, he’s getting hit.
He also had struggles with the outside game of both Bukauskas and Jacoby.
It’s important to note that Oleksiejczuk is largely a front runner who gets the majority of his finishes early in fights. He did keep a high pace against Jacoby though where his cardio looked decent.
Overall, I like the move down to 185 for Oleksiejczuk as this is his rightful weight class and I expect him to have continued striking success, although he will now be fighting some more dynamic guys, but also many who are less physical.
How it plays out: The striking dynamic is super fun here as it’s more of a bull vs matador situation. We’ve also seen both guys fight some similar archetypes to each other where results have been a bit mixed. But after a healthy amount of tape and number crunching, I do favor Pereira on the feet. I feel he’s done better against archetypes of Oleksiejczuk’s style than Oleksiejczuk has done against archetypes of Pereira.
Oleksiejczuk isn’t slow by any means but there should be a decided speed, footwork, athleticism and striking diversity advantage in the favor of Pereira. Pereira’s also shown that he can fight effectively from all three ranges whereas Oleksiejczuk really needs to be going forward.
With all of that being said, I still anticipate a competitive striking fight because both guys pump volume and Pereira tends to drop a round in most of his fights when he’s not finishing. I just feel it’s going to be a bit more difficult for Oleksiejczuk to consistently track Pereira down as a guy who won’t stand in front of him (especially early perceivably). Coupled with the fact that we’re in the big cage this weekend, which is more suited to Pereira’s style than Oleksiejczuk’s because it gives him more room to operate on the outside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Pereira has mixed the wrestling into a lot of his fights, landing 1.56 TDs per 15 minutes at 55 percent, but has struggled with ground control, scoring roughly 50 seconds of control time per TD.
But he’s actually jumped on the necks of a couple of opponents, submitting Imadaev by RNC, and he had a deep choke locked in at the end of the 2nd vs Williams but the time in the round ran out. Pereira only has six submission wins in his 29 pro victories so it’s not really a primary part of his game, outside of some of those opportunistic attempts.
He officially has a 94 percent takedown defense rate but he looked pretty bad on the bottom against Connelly in 2019, but I also largely attribute that to him completely death gassing in that fight. Ponz took him down once but wasn’t able to do much with it.
In general, he does a really good job of digging underhooks and working off the cage.
It does need to be noted that he hasn’t fought many strong base wrestlers though, outside of an old Sanchez and Petroski most recently, who he deaded in a minute.
Overall, he’s a competent wrestler/grappler despite it not being his base, but you can’t anticipate much ground time in his fight.
Oleksiejczuk has struggled on the ground as four of his six pro losses have come via submission.
However, in his last three losses that came via sub, it was against OSP, Crute and Borralho who have shown to be potent ground finishers.
In general, he hasn’t been shot on much but the guys who have grappled him have had success, with his takedown defense sitting at just 48 percent.
The early TD Brundage landed came easy and he was able to get to the back of Oleksiejczuk. However, Oleksiejczuk did fight the hands well, was able to spin into the guard of Brundage and pound him out. That could be some testament to Oleksiejczuk’s improvements, but Brundage also didn’t put on a body triangle and is generally lost on his back.
In Oleksiejczuk’s debut against Roundtree, he was actually able to land some TDs and get some top time but traditionally he’s not a guy who’s looking to get fights to the floor. He generally just wants to box and only lands 0.76 TDs per 15 minutes at 44 percent.
He did most recently get on top of a tired and compromised Njokuani though, where he was able to pound him out.
So his last two wins have come via ground-and-pound, and he’s shown to be capable if he does get into top positions. Overall, despite his strength of competition, he’s still raw on the ground defensively and this is the main weakness in his game.
How it plays out: We should largely see a striking affair here but if I’m to project more upside to one fighter, it’s Pereira. He’s mixed the TD in a bit more, has better TDD, more submission upside and less defensive grappling flaws.
Fun scrap and good booking from the UFC matchmakers. I ultimately come away with saying that this fight probably looks like Oleksiejczuk’s fight with Jacoby. I like Pereira to get off to an early lead and win the first couple rounds, but he probably drops the 3rd to win a 29-28 decision.
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On DraftKings, this is one fight that makes me a little uncomfortable and I do view it primarily as a boom or bust matchup.
Pereira is priced up to 8.7k which feels expensive considering his moneyline is trending in the wrong direction. He’s now only -144 to win and it’s hard to prioritize him outright over the group priced above him.
Although Pereira is capable of producing volume, and mixing in takedowns, he just isn’t active enough to smash if the fight gets extended. His decision wins have scored 74, 80, 91 and 62. None of those would be optimal at 8.7k, most likely.
So if I’m targeting Pereira at 8.7k, I really want an early knockout. That outcome is viable given his +130 ITD line but Oleksiejczuk has yet to be knocked down in any of his 12 UFC bouts, so I wouldn’t consider it extremely likely. Honestly though, that ITD line is decent enough that if he projects to be low owned, you could consider him a sneaky play.
Still, I view Pereira as a mildly overpriced, boom or bust target who will fit best into my constructions when I can’t afford to pay up much further.
And this just isn’t a spot where I’d be willing to get very aggressive against the field, even if he projects to be lower owned. A low ownership is possible given the weak moneyline but I don’t expect him to be ignored completely, for what it’s worth.
I will be prioritizing several fighters priced above Pereira, as well as a few mid-range matchups, and then mix in Pereira as a secondary option when it’s applicable.
Oleksiejczuk at 7.5k will actually rate out as a value given his +125 moneyline, but I’m unsure if the public will want to play him.
My first thought is that they won’t. He’s not a highly thought of talent, nor is this a great matchup on paper, and this card is filled with viable underdogs who feel more intriguing. His floor is almost non-existent.
Oleksiejczuk has very minimal wrestling equity too, and I don’t think he can land enough striking volume in three rounds to clearly find his way to the optimal lineup. I would project something like 60-70 sig. strikes landed in a decision for him, which would maybe get him to 60 DK points in a win.
His last decision win scored 59 points, for what it’s worth.
So if you’re rostering Oleksiejczuk, like Pereira, you’re hoping he can win by knockout. Oleksiejczuk is +225 to win ITD which also like Pereira, is a pretty strong metric. And if he too projects to be lower owned, you could argue it’s not a bad strategy to come in a bit above the field.
I personally won’t get there very often though. There are a few underdogs I like better and ones I feel have matchups that are better suited to reach ceilings. Striking is high-variance though and Oleksiejczuk hurting Pereira wouldn’t be a crazy outcome.
Because he’s also trending toward being a moneyline value, Oleksiejczuk is fine at 7.5k. I don’t love him, but I don’t hate him. He won’t be my top priority but with a medium sized portfolio it makes sense to mix him in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian
Fight Odds: Despaigne -331, Parisian +265
Odds to Finish: -1400
DraftKings Salaries: Despaigne 9.3k, Parisian 6.9k
Weight Class: HW
You know this card is stacked when the UFC casually throws in the debut of an Olympian on the prelims, which is what we’ll have here as Robelis Despaigne takes on Josh Parisian.
Parisian is the Olympian and a potentially high-level prospect. Just kidding. He wishes. It’s Robelis Despaigne, who won the bronze medal in taekwondo at the 2012 London games.
Despaigne is 35 years old, but looks to be a legit athlete with significant early knockout potential in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He is 4-0 professionally with all four wins coming by first round knockout.
Sounds incredible right?
Well, I’m here to spoil the party because I view Despaigne as an extreme red flag, and I am far from certain he even gets past the old, slow, worn down Parisian on Saturday.
Largely, it’s because of his base, which is taekwondo. He wants to stand at distance, with his hands down, and kick you in the head. He can fire off punches too, but they’re singular moments, and his style won’t look nearly as efficient as a classic boxer or kickboxer.
This alone isn’t the issue, but in MMA, this is arguably one of the least important fighting bases you could have. Having a legitimate high school wrestling background would carry more weight in my book than a bronze medal in taekwondo, and that’s not meant to be a slight toward Despaigne, it’s just the unfortunate truth in MMA.
And if Despaigne had a legitimate, extended regional record against high-quality competition, perhaps I would think differently. However, it’s the complete opposite.
The guy is 4-0 and three of his four fights haven’t lasted longer than TWELVE SECONDS. I watched them all. It’s crazy. His pro debut lasted one full round but that was in 2022, and he has less than 20 seconds of cage time since then.
Every single opponent he’s faced has been a can, someone Despaigne was meant to crush. Tapology only has one of those fighters listed with a pro win, and the rest have none. In each of Despaigne’s last two fights, he landed one big shot less than five seconds into the round and knocked the guy out.
Obviously it’s extremely impressive, but it has essentially no impact on whether he’ll have continued success against UFC-level competition.
And welcome to the world of MMA analysis because this is a tough one. We have zero idea how Despaigne will look in extended fights. Zero idea of his volume, or of his ability to take punishment, which is important in this division.
We have zero idea how good his ground game is, which almost always means it’s very bad and a major liability. Maybe he can get away with it at HW but only against the bottom tier of talent.
I fully believe Despaigne can knock guys out early, but at this moment, my guess is that it’s the only way he can win.
I highly doubt he can keep up with a legitimate striker for multiple rounds. I saw one takedown attempt against him and my best guess is that his defensive wrestling is very poor, and if he gets taken down, he might get finished very easily.
This is a super obvious long term fade spot for me and considering he’s a heavy favorite against Parisian, I may just be willing to take a risk on the fade here as well.
The problem is, Parisian isn’t very good and he’s 34 years old, so the UFC knows exactly what they’re doing by choosing him as the debut opponent for Despaigne.
Parisian is 2-4 in the UFC, and his wins have come by split decision against a non-UFC level talent in Roque Martinez, and by TKO against Alan Baudot, who still knocked Parisian down early in that fight.
Parisian at his best, is an experienced fighter, who isn’t particularly athletic or powerful, but can hang around on the feet and outwork the worst defensive grapplers in this division.
He lands 4.54 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.81 per minute at a 41 percent defensive rate. His defense sucks. And at HW, that generally means getting hit very hard.
He’s been TKOd only once in the UFC, but he’s been hurt in other losses and it seems likely he will get knocked out again in the future.
Parisian also defends takedowns at 46 percent, so any good wrestler can have their way with him.
There’s a very good chance Despaigne knocks Parisian out in round one on Saturday. The newcomer is aggressive, athletic, and big. He’ll be three inches taller than Parisian with an eight-inch reach advantage, which just means at distance, Despaigne will be able to attack while Parisian can’t reach him in return.
Parisian probably gets hurt, and we get an awesome highlight for Despaigne, which will just make him a heavy favorite again next time against someone slightly better.
The other outcome is that if Parisian closes the distance at all, he might demolish Despaigne. Taekwondo fighters need space, so the closer Parisian is to Despaigne, the better for him.
He might get badly hurt trying to close the distance but if he does not, Parisian might have the advantage everywhere. I would favor his boxing in close, and I would favor his clinch game. I have to favor his wrestling game, as he averages about one takedown per fight, which is better than nothing.
Parisian at least took Baudot down three times in a similar stylistic matchup, and knocked him out on the mat in round two, though again, Baudot did hurt him early.
Against Despaigne, Parisian needs to sell out to close the distance. The longer he fights at range, the more likely he is to get KOd. But if he can just get inside and extend this fight, he could look like the obvious favorite in hindsight.
Parisian has at least gone the distance three times in the UFC, which is extremely valuable experience, and it’s quite possible Despaigne does literally not have the cardio to fight for a full 15 minutes. A lot of HWs do not. Parisian also landed 114 sig. strikes in one of those decisions which is a pretty decent rate.
If Parisian is fresh while Despaigne is tired, Parisian is likely to bully him and get a knockout win himself.
There’s also the chance that Parisian is way better on the ground, and one takedown could be the end. BJJ is all about knowledge and experience, and I don’t think Despaigne has been training BJJ until recently.
I’ve seen footage of him in the gym training, and who knows, maybe he’s a super athlete who can pick things up quickly. Historically, if you don’t know how good a fighter is on the ground, the answer is usually not very good, and that’s the approach I have to take until proven otherwise.
I don’t see why Despaigne should be a heavy favorite in this spot, and I would not be touching that moneyline. It’s possible his only path to win is by first round KO, and I’d be very surprised if he won by any other method than KO.
Taking the leap of faith that Despaigne will win this fight is still fine, as he is the better athlete, and the more dangerous striker. Parisian is slow and has poor defense. A quick KO is a pretty reasonable outcome.
I just need to warn you of the other outcomes, which I think mostly lie in the favor of Parisian, and I really wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled off the upset this weekend.
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On DraftKings, Despaigne is priced up to 9.3k and should be a popular fantasy target, given his early KO upside.
With the surrounding fighters like O’Malley and Almabayev, we could see some ownership pulled away from Despaigne. However, he’s -295 to win ITD which is the best line on this entire slate, and most people will be predicting an early knockout win.
I have pretty mixed feelings about this play because there is such obvious upside, but Despaigne won’t carry any wrestling equity, and I’m not expecting much striking volume either. It’s very possible that the only possible way he comes close to contending for the optimal lineup is with a quick finish.
And even then, if he wins by KO in two minutes and scores 108 points, is that optimal? My guess on this slate, is no.
The best chance for Despaigne is for him to win by KO in less than one minute and score those additional 25 bonus points, but I never predict those outcomes. It’s possible though.
I think Despaigne is fine because he rates out very well and I can’t argue against the matchup. However, I am very concerned by his style, this is an expensive price tag that might come with a high public ownership.
Maybe I’m just biased against taekwondo fighters but I think leaning underweight is the right call here, though it would be a major risk to come in very underweight.
Parisian is probably my favorite sneaky underdog on the card at 6.9k, and I’ll definitely be taking risks with him.
The fight as a whole is -1400 to end inside the distance, but I still don’t see the public playing Parisian because of the strength of this card on the whole. He should rate out as a very strong leverage target, and if he wins, he’ll put up a score that should compete for the optimal lineup.
The downside is that if he loses, he’ll score less than 10 points, so he has absolutely no floor. And if he loses, you’ll be pissed at yourself for having any exposure because it’s going to seem obvious in hindsight that he was “always going to get knocked out.”
He’s still +300 to win ITD, and he has multiple ways to win and score. Add in the price discount, low public ownership, and leverage against Despagine, and I think Parisian is a pretty good large field tournament play.
Don’t get carried away here on a slate with a dozen live underdogs, but this is a spot I will be aiming to be overweight, and if he loses, we’ll just try to fade Despaigne in his next fight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Despaigne by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
CJ Vergara vs. Asu Almabayev
Fight Odds: Almabayev -545, Vergara +400
Odds to Finish: -145
DraftKings Salaries: Almabayev 9.5k, Vergara 6.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
CJ Vergara is a Contender Series alum who’s had mixed results in the UFC and on the scales – he’s 3-2 in the promotion and 12-4-1 as a pro. Asu Almabayev is a Kazakh national that bypassed the Contender Series, making good on his UFC debut back in August – he’s 18-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Vergara falls more into your blue-collar type of striker. He’s not a great athlete or the fastest guy but he will look to play a pressure-based game and keep a consistent work rate.
He’s shown power components as well, with 7 of his 12 pro wins coming via strikes, which is great for a division like flyweight. But he is more of an attritional guy in comparison to a “one hitter quitter” type.
However, his defense is kind of an afterthought, eating 5.01 sig. strikes at 53 percent, and he can struggle with pressure/faster/more dynamic strikers.
Against Silva, he got hit cleanly pretty much anytime Silva decided to move forward and throw on him – he was dropped twice in the first round. To his credit, he weathered the storm and was able to take over the fight in the latter rounds against a gassed Silva and find a finish of his own.
On DWCS, he was able to blitz Souza, do some good work from the clinch and finish with a knee to the body in less than 2 minutes. Against Osbourne, he struggled with the length and speed of Osbourne early, but the tide started to shift halfway through the fight and Vergara started to find a home for his strikes when Osbourne slowed down.
It was somewhat of a similar story against Rodrigues where Vergara got out landed at distance 70-45 – he landed a lot of big shots in there though and held his own.
He also had to survive one hell of an early surge from Lacerda who dropped him twice but Vergara again hung tough, Lacerda gassed, and Vergara finished him off in the 2nd.
Most recently, he went on to win the latter two rounds against Salvador after having a slower start.
Overall, Vergara is a gritty striker who can break and/or outlast guys with pace and pressure but despite his toughness, he’s an available fighter who’s there to be hit.
Almabayev is a wrestler/grappler by base but has okay “euro-coasterish” standup.
He’s not going to be super high output but does time his blitzes and flurries well, which he couples with some good spinning attacks. He’s not a perennial power threat with only three KOs in 18 wins, but he does have some pop in his blitzing straights and high kicks.
Based on his style, he’s never getting “volumed up” but he can be hit with singular range shots, and some guys can time his entries in.
The only guy to finish him was now UFC Flyweight, Tagir Ulanbekov back in 2017 via ground strikes – he did tap to strikes but I think it was an injury based off a slam which is why that was the case.
Overall, I’ve seen similar styles to Almabayev’s before where it isn’t going to blow your hair back optically per say, but he’ll compete if not best his opponents on the feet.
How it plays out: Despite me not being in “ove with Almabayev’s standup, he’s probably one of the better defensive strikers that Vergara has fought. Vergara does have more proven aggression and volume but it’s going to be hard to get off on Almabayev with extended combinations unless he’s able to get inside with consistenly. But even if he does, that’s going to additionally give Almabayev TD opportunities. Once again, Vergara really has no defense, so I expect those longer blitzing attacks from Almabayev to land here. Nonetheless, if Vergara is to compete in this matchup, the striking realm is how he’s going to do it.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Being a base striker, Vergara doesn’t really pursue TDs and hasn’t statistically landed a TD so far in the UFC. He has found his way to top positions on multiple occasions but it’s from hurting guys, reversing positions off opponent failed TDAs or in scrambles.
For example, he rode out the 3rd round on top of a tired Osbourne, took the 2nd from Rodrigues after hurting him with a body kick and pounded out a tired Lacerda after a failed calf slicer.
His last regional loss was concerning back in 2018 though as he got taken down quickly, had his guard passed and was choked out.
He definitely put up resistance against Taira and was able to reverse position once, but he was at too distinct of a grappling disadvantage – Taira’s a stud on the ground though, for context.
It’s just hard to ignore the fact that Vergara has gotten his back taken in four of his five UFC fights.
Overall, he’s not really a pure wrestling threat but he can be strong from top in certain instances. He has okay TDD but his overall grappling is shaky, especially against better grapplers of a UFC level.
I’m unsure of Almabayev’s official credentials but he’s best on the ground.
He will stand a bit in his fights but he’s pretty consistent to shoot TDs where he’s found his career successes primarily.
I particularly like his entries as they aren’t telegraphed, they’re quick and he’s shown he can wrestle to both the legs and the body effectively – but he particularly excels to the legs which is something I like to see.
When on the ground, we’ve seen a bit all over the board from him in terms of his approach.
There are certain fights where he’s fine to just control his opponent within the guard, or be aggressive with GNP, or even proactively look to pass where he’s got some quick transitions to the back.
But his general control with grounded opponents regardless of approach has generally been very good in terms of being able to rack up minutes. Nine of his 18 pro wins have come via submission where he primarily excels in taking the back, with seven of his nine subs coming via RNC.
Defensively, he’s not immune to being taken down but he’s rarely been held down outside of the Ulanbekov fight early in his career, and in the 1st round against Doskalchuk. He still wasn’t really flattened much in that latter fight, but did get grinded a bit early. Almabayev still ultimately out grappled him in the 2nd round and found a submission though.
Makovsky reversed position to mount a few times in their fight, but Almabayev re-swept/scrambled in both instances.
Overall, the guy appears to be a solid Euro grinder with submission competency who’s not going to be easy to take down and hold down.
How it plays out: I don’t have a ton of optimism for Vergara on the floor here. As noted, he’s been scrambly in certain spots and I do expect him to put up some earlier resistance to Almabayev, but Almabayev is one of the better floor players that Vergara has fought. Taira has better pure jiu-jitsu than Almabayev but Almabayev’s a better wrestler than Taira in my opinion. Vergara getting his back taken in four UFC fights seems like not the best historic when taking on a guy whose best submission is a rear naked choke.
Vergara’s a fun fighter that opponents can’t take lightly because the guy is going to come to fight, is generally tough and has respectable cardio, which a style that’s going to give certain opponents a healthy number of issues. But he’s getting a guy in Almabayev who’s not a good style matchup for him.
There are levels on the floor in this fight and Almabayev can wrestle hard for 15 minutes. Once again though, I’d be surprised if Almabayev just ran through him quickly and I wouldn’t be surprised if Vergara was able to hang on, considering it took Taira nine minutes to sub him, and he defended RNCs pretty well. But Almabayev via 3rd round submission is my pick.
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On DraftKings, we have Almabayev as the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k, and I think he’s a pretty strong target in all formats.
Wrestling and grappling score well on DraftKings, and Almabayev is a primary wrestler who should have a pretty solid advantage in that area against Vergara. A win for Almabayev very likely comes from takedowns, control, and likely a submission.
That’s how Almabayev won his last fight and he put up 105 points on DraftKings. I should note though that 105 points at 9.5k is probably not enough to be optimal on this slate. It might be, and obviously it wouldn’t crush your lineup, but it’s far from a guarantee.
In that sense, even with a great matchup on paper, Almabayev doesn’t need to be considered a lock for your DK lineups. He might look great, win, score well, and just be priced out of the optimal.
However, he carries the best moneyline on this slate at -545, a strong ITD line of -105, and a solid style given his wrestling background. I am expecting a somewhat straightforward, grappling-based win.
In terms of the top range itself, the five-round favorites in BSD and O’Malley will gain more ownership, and could be considered priorities. I expect Despaigne to be a priority for a lot of people. That could suck a lot of ownership away from Almabayev who might have been more popular on a different slate. It’s not hard to find salary relief to pay up this high though.
Personally, I like Almabayev. Compared to Gamrot below him, Almabayev has a much better chance of winning by submission once the fight hits the mat, and it could come in round one. He likely won’t contend for the optimal without that type of result though.
I won’t force Almabayev in due to pricing, but I think he has a strong floor and ceiling, and a pretty soft matchup. I don’t even mind prioritizing him ahead of Despaigne, especially if Almabayev projects to be lower owned, and I’ll aim to have mild-moderate exposure in total.
Vergara at 6.7k is a pass for me this week. I do think he could win if he keeps the fight upright but I still don’t project a ton of volume landed. Any fighter can randomly win by knockout but that’s still a tough task.
Vergara is a huge dog on a big slate, and he’s only +565 to win inside the distance. There’s no real wrestling equity here either.
He will be very low owned and likely sub 10 percent, but that’s the only real reason to consider him at all. With a small portfolio, I don’t see the need to use Vergara. In cash, there are much safer options in the lower 7k range.
In large fields, if you are max-entering, you can consider a small amount of Vergara if you want, but there is so much more win equity elsewhere on this slate. He is probably my least favorite underdog on this slate and I will likely just fade him outright.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almabayev by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz
Fight Odds: Moroz -225, Wood +189
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Moroz 9k, Wood 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Joanne Wood snapped a 3-fight skid last time out with a win over Luana Carolina but is now at the not so ripe age of 38 – she’s 8-8 in the UFC and 16-8 as a pro. Maryna Moroz is entering her 10th year on the active roster and has been a streaky fighter in the organization – she’s 6-5 in the UFC and 11-5 as a pro. This will be a rematch from 2015 where Moroz won via 1st round armbar.
The striking component:
Wood comes from a muay thai background and is a super high-volume striker, landing 6.93 significant strikes per minute at 51 percent over a large sample size.
She’s had success in all 3 ranges and is a diverse striker. She also reps a positive distance differential of +3.07 strikes/minute and has never really been outlanded in the UFC in fights that have had extended distance time.
The issue is her defense as she eats 4.72 sig. strikes per minute at a 51 percent defensive rate.
Despite her crazy volume nature, she stands very square which allows opponents to hit her cleanly. She tends to stand very upright and throws a lot of naked kicks, which opponents have been able to time well with counter entries.
Also, despite that crazy distance differential, the big reason she accrues so much volume is because she throws a very high number of kicks. If we only include head strikes, her fights and metrics can tighten.
In Wood’s defense, she’s fought largely top 15 or fringe top 15 competition throughout the bulk of her career, and has rarely lost clean striking rounds.
Overall, she’s a tough girl to beat on the feet if her opponents can’t keep up with her.
Moroz is a striker by trade and a former national boxer in her native Ukraine.
She isn’t immune to throwing kicks but does the large majority of her work with her hands, landing 4.15 sig. strikes per minute with a 31 percent accuracy.
Her lower accuracy percentage is largely attributed to her general activity, as she’ll throw a lot of range finding strikes, but she is technical and excels with her straight punches to the head, while also targeting the body on occasion.
However, she’s shown to be hittable as well, eating 4.42 sig. strikes per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate. She’s also only outpaced three girls in her 11 UFC fights numerically, but has made some strides in recent years.
But she’s had some struggles when girls come forward on her – primarily her fights against Hill, Mazo and Silva.
Hill was just the more effective party, Mazo came on late with kicks and knees and then Bueno Silva largely walked her down throughout the fight, beating up the legs of Moroz and her attritional damage really started to build. Moroz was the busier party there, outlanding Silva by 50 significant strikes to win that decision though.
Her fight with Maia was competitive but her struggles more so came while trying to be the bull in that fight, and Maia was able to effectively counter her in volume. She more recently got hurt early with a left hook from Silva.
Overall, Moroz is a decent striker but because of her poor accuracy and defensive struggles, she’ll continue to find herself in competitive striking affairs with higher output girls.
How it plays out: The striking is probably competitive here as both girls are active strikers with not the best defensive capabilities. But Wood does serve as the more accurate and diverse striker of the two, who’s also better in clinching positions. Once again, Wood is really hard to outland over the course of 15 minutes but she’s also less mobile than the girls who have primarily given Moroz bigger struggles. Also, Wood hasn’t been reacting the best to punches recently, and Moroz has been sitting down on her shots more as of late. I lean Wood on the feet but not a strong take.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Wood is a striker by nature but has mixed in the wrestling to her fights with moderate consistency. She lands 1.57 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 54 percent.
However, she has struggled in terms of control on the ground which needs to be noted. Defensively, she’s struggled as well, defending TDs at 59 percent.
She’s another girl who when she gets taken down, tends to spend chunks of time on her back. To her credit, she will be aggressive on bottom though and will threaten submissions, but at the end of the day, she’s only gotten one sub which was against Faria (a round she was losing until she got it).
Her defensive grappling has been really her downfall within the UFC as she’s been submitted in five of her eight losses. But she will throw stuff up of her own, and catch girls if they don’t mind their Ps and Qs.
Even with all of that being said, her control ratios are actually slightly positive, but I would attribute that to added clinching. Wood is by and large losing rounds generally or fights all together when there is a wrestling/grappling component against her.
Overall, she’s shown offensive competency but has struggled with submission defense, and her willingness to play guard at times is of bigger concern against an opponent who will shoot TDs.
Despite Moroz coming from a boxing background, she has gone to the TD and had success in certain outings.
Statistically, she only lands 0.67 TDs per 15 minutes at 22% — atrocious numbers but she has made some strides from earlier on in her run. However, her initial entries are still poor and her TDs are coming against the fence from body locks primarily.
Her wrestling was a factor in her last three Ws though, against Mazo, Silva and Agapova—she was able to get 4+ minutes of control time in all three fights. Silva also largely just played guard though which needs to be noted and Agapova’s grappling is generally poor.
Moroz does have 5 wins via armbar, but the last one came back in 2015 against her current opponent – she’s not exactly a submission hunter in the aggregate of her UFC run but was able to snap up an arm triangle over Agapova in a more wrestling centric gameplan.
Defensively, she has been wrestled before, but her metrics are skewed a bit from her fight with Esparza who took her down six times – no shame in that given Esparza is one of the better female wrestlers in the UFC. Moroz actually put up some good resistance against Esparza, but it just wasn’t enough.
More recently, Silva was able to get to her down with a double leg and pass the guard relatively easily, and Moroz eventually succumbed to a guillotine choke at the bell in the 1st round.
Overall, the ground’s been up and down for Moroz.
How it plays out: Despite Wood having better offensive and defensive wrestling metrics than Moroz, I would give Moroz more ground upside here. I feel she’s physically stronger than Wood and probably the more likely party to control ground minutes, with more submission upside should that be the path she takes. As noted, they fought back in 2015 where Moroz actually pulled guard and secured an armbar shortly after.
I don’t take much away from it because it was a long time ago, but Wood’s submission defense struggles have been a reoccurring issue since their first fight. Wood is capable of taking Moroz down, but I wouldn’t project much control time.
This should be a fun women’s fight despite it being surrounded by a stacked card of other bouts. The fight seems relatively high-variance from a pure stylistic stance because I think there’s a sufficient argument to be made for either girl.
One of my primary concerns on the Wood side is that she’s coming off a year layoff, is 38 years old and from what it sounds like, this will be her retirement fight. I’ll take Moroz for the win but if this turns out to largely be a 15-minute striking fight, I don’t understand the strong sentiment the market has towards Moroz because you’re probably looking at a close decision, or Moroz just being down on the numbers.
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On DraftKings, Moroz is shockingly priced up to 9k to match her moneyline odds of -225, but I highly doubt anyone is going to be willing to play her.
For starters, she’s priced between Saint Denis, O’Malley and Despaigne, who could be amongst the heaviest owned fighters on the entire slate. That’s going to pull a ton of ownership away from her and will firmly place her into the contrarian category.
Moroz also doesn’t have a great history of scoring, and her recent box score is far from impressive. However, she does have a couple of nice wins that totaled 108 and 111, which came in 2022 and 2020.
There’s also the narrative that Moroz submitted Wood the first time and possibly has a ground advantage here. Couple that with a generally high projected pace, and I actually like Moroz’ floor in a win.
The problem is that she is only +215 to win ITD, and her finishing equity just isn’t great. She’s not really a knockout artist and her last submission win over Wood came from her back, which isn’t necessarily replicable.
In terms of priorities, Moroz won’t come near the top for me or for the public in any format. In fact, there’s a decent argument to make that Wood will just win this fight over 15 minutes.
But because both girls will throw lots of strikes, and Wood has some defensive struggles, there are still at least paths for Moroz to reach a ceiling. 100 strikes landed and two takedowns is within the range of outcomes, which would be 80-90 points when you add on control.
That still won’t be optimal at 9k on this slate, but it’s not a terrible result. Considering she may project close to 10 percent public ownership, you can consider Moroz in this range as a pivot option if you want to be super unique.
But I think there’s little chance she outscores both BSD and O’Malley in a win, let alone some of the other winners on the slate who will project to win ITD. I just cannot prioritize Moroz myself with a limited portfolio of lineups and I’d rather chase the upside in this range which I feel is superior with nearly every other fighter.
Wood at 7.2k interests me a little bit from a floor perspective. This fight is expected to go the distance at -275 and if that happens, Wood could easily land 100 strikes herself. So even in a loss, 40 points is pretty realistic. That puts Wood firmly in play as a cash game punt.
I’m also debating picking her to win outright and I’ve talked with smart people, including Luke who wrote this breakdown, who think Wood is very live to win. It’s just tough to trust her to win at nearly 40 years old in her potential retirement fight, and sometimes her fight optics suck as she flinches and doesn’t love getting hit.
In large field tournaments, it does still make sense to chase the finishing upside of the majority of other underdogs on this slate, especially considering we have so many closely lined fights. Wood will rate out terribly in that sense with a +1200 ITD line and I’m definitely not expecting a knockout or submission win from her. If anything, it would be a super close decision.
But I will say, Wood does have a decent DraftKings history. Her last decision win scored 105 points, and her decision wins prior to that scored 108, and 96. Any of those results might literally just put her on the optimal lineup.
In these fights, she’s landing a ton of volume strikes and mixing in takedowns as well. This matchup against Moroz is likely to be high paced and I wouldn’t be surprised if Wood could match her past volume and surpass 90 points once again.
She is also likely to be very low owned, on a card with multiple five-rounders and 14 fights in total. I can’t imagine her even reaching 20 percent public ownership.
So honestly, this isn’t a terrible spot for a 7.2k price tag. You will certainly want to cap your ownership given the lack of finishing upside and general risks with Wood, but her floor is decent and she’s shown enough of a ceiling in the past that I am not willing to fade her personally.
She’s only a lower-end secondary target but at 7.2k she saves enough salary for me to mix her in around the field percentage this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wood by Decision (Confidence=Low)