UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal (4/25/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal

Fight Odds: Zalal -125, Sterling +105

Odds to end ITD: +125

DraftKings Salaries: Zalal 8.4k, Sterling 7.8k

Weight Class: 145

The next generation of the featherweight division is here, as the UFC will give Youssef Zalal a spotlight matchup against former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling.

I haven’t always been high on Zalal, and in fact, I’ve faded him successfully in spots before, but credit where credit is due, this kid has improved his game and become a dangerous fighter in this division.

Zalal is essentially on the Brandon Moreno path, as he was cut from the UFC after three consecutive losses and one draw in 2022, Zalal spent some time on the regional scene and came back in 2024. Since then, he’s picked up five wins in a row, including a recent submission win over Josh Emmett.

Zalal is a pretty well-rounded fighter, and I would label him a solid round winner. He’s a technical striker at distance, and he likes to pump the jab and throw leg kicks. At distance, Zalal lands 5.3 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.12 per minute for a solid +2.18 ratio.

I don’t consider Zalal a super dangerous striker though, nor is he a volume specialist. Less than 50 percent of his fight time actually takes place at distance, and from a pure sig strike perspective, he only lands 3.03 per minute.

In three round decisions, we’ve seen Zalal land 74, 63, 42, 23, 17, 54, 59 and 31 sig strikes, which is just not a lot. He has a couple of knockdowns in that span, with one coming via flying knee, but he’s not a major power threat.

In part, this has been one of my reasons for concern. While Zalal is a solid round winner, landing 50 strikes in 15 minutes just isn’t enough to clearly separate yourself.

Still, Zalal is likely to have success in striking exchanges. He throws safe, consistent strikes which I like, and he limits exchanges. He’s defending strikes at 66 percent which is phenomenal, and his footwork is strong. He’s likely to get ahead on the numbers for this reason, even if he’s not blowing his opponent out of the water.

Where Zalal has made bigger strides is on the mat, and he’s picked up four submission wins in his past five fights which is very impressive. His wrestling also looks improved, and he lands 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes.

I thought Billy Quarantillo might be a dangerous opponent for Zalal due to pacing and pressure, but Zalal easily took him down, took his back and choked him out.

This is still a massive step up in competition for Zalal against Sterling, who is an elite fighter and perennially underrated.

Sterling had a very successful run at bantamweight which saw him win the title in 2021, and defend it successfully against TJ Dillashaw and Henry Cejudo. Sterling ultimately fell to Sean O’Malley in 2023 before moving up to featherweight, making room for training partner Merab Dvalishvili to enter the fold.

Sterling is extremely well-rounded and a very strong round winner himself. He’s a high-level submission grappler and black belt in BJJ, and he’s one of the best back takers in the sport.

Sterling is also a strong wrestler, and lands 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. His optimal path to victory is mixing in those takedowns, taking the back, and controlling you for stretches. He hasn’t shown to be an elite finisher but his back control is very strong.

On the feet, Sterling likes to spam volume, which is the perfect pair to his grappling game. He’s not very dangerous and not very powerful, but he lands 4.45 sig strikes per minute which is plenty enough to keep him alive in striking rounds.

Like Zalal, Sterling can pump the jab and throw leg kicks. At distance, he lands 5.8 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.39 per minute for a +2.41 ratio. Like Zalal, he defends strikes well at 59 percent.

Sterling has the championship experience too which certainly won’t hurt him in a five-rounder like this. He’s gone five rounds three times, including in his most recent bout against Brian Ortega that saw Sterling land 124 sig strikes and three takedowns.

Sterling is simply very good. I don’t think he’ll be an elite fighter forever, and he’s 36 years old. I have mild concerns about his cardio and durability against a pressure based opponent. His game is somewhat thin if he can’t work his wrestling, but ultimately, he should give a really strong test to just about every fighter in this division.

This matchup is super intriguing, and you can add on the fact that these two have trained together extensively as another major X factor in the build up. I don’t know how those training sessions looked, but any time fighters train together, fights can look a little bit weird because they generally know each other’s strengths and weaknesses, and have felt them before.

I also find it interesting that the public is excited about Zalal this week, who is favored to win and is getting action. I can understand it from an intangible standpoint, as Zalal is seven years younger and has the better career trajectory. I find it very difficult to pick him confidently from an analytical sense.

To start, there is just nowhere in this matchup where I feel extremely comfortable with Zalal. I do think he’s the more effective striker of the two, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stick and move, and beat Sterling up a bit over five rounds.

But I would feel much more confident in Zalal if he was a pressure-based, high-volume striker. He is not, and not only that, but Sterling throws just as much volume as him, if not more. And Sterling defends strikes well historically.

So yes, I can concede that Zalal should be the more effective striker here but these two might just land 60-80 distance strikes, and it’s tough to be sure Zalal is dominantly winning rounds.

On the mat, Sterling is the better grappler. I think that both fighters can take each other down, but Sterling is the better scrambler and better submission grappler. I think he’s the better offensive wrestler too.

I don’t love using MMA math, but just as a point of reference, Sterling fought Calvin Kattar in 2024 and went 8/13 on takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control. Zalal fought Kattar in 2025 and went 0/8 on takedowns with zero seconds of control.

And after that, Sterling fought Movsar Evloev, who may be the champion here soon. And he almost won. He took Evloev down six times and controlled him for six minutes.

Conversely, Zalal just looked great in a quick submission win over Josh Emmett, but I really couldn’t care less about that. Zalal couldn’t even control Emmett in that exchange, he fell off his back and had to submit him with an armbar from guard. Is he going to submit Aljo with an armbar from guard? I doubt it.

I am not sure Sterling runs through Zalal on the mat, but I do think Sterling can have mild success. I think he can land 2-5 takedowns on Zalal, and take his back potentially. Zalal defends takedowns at 59 percent and has given up 2 or more takedowns to guys like SeungWoo Choi, Jack Shore and Jordan Griffin.

In Zalal’s matchup with Da’Mon Blackshear, which was a draw, Zalal lost the first two rounds because he was giving up his back. He only got taken down once but he gave up his back like four times.

It just gives me hope that Sterling can have mild success. Maybe not major success, but he can land takedowns in multiple rounds here, and be mildly threatening.

I do also think Zalal can take Sterling down, who only defends at 44 percent. Zalal could earn some control, and maybe take the back. The difference to me is that Aljo is not going to give up easily, and I don’t really trust Zalal to scramble with him.

There’s an exchange in the Evloev fight where Evloev takes Aljo’s back, but Aljo rolls through it. Evloev still ends up on top and attempts the back take again. Aljo rolls through it again and escapes, and ends up in the front head lock position. That’s just high level grappling, and Aljo won’t just quit. Maybe Zalal is that good and can lock him up, but I trust Aljo to give him a very fair test.

The best case for Zalal in my mind is that he shuts down Aljo’s wrestling early, scrambles well, takes him down, and tires him out. Then on the feet, Zalal can be more effective as the fight goes on, and Sterling won’t have a major recourse to change things up. Zalal might be able to beat him up late and even win by TKO.

I still don’t think Sterling is washed just yet. I still think he can have early grappling moments, and strike competitively with a defensive and volume based style. I’m unsure if it’s enough to win, but I expect early rounds to be competitive, and I just don’t trust Zalal’s pacing enough to assume he’ll blow Sterling out of the water.

I’m not sure quite yet who I will pick to win but I think we likely see a competitive, extended fight here that has a really good shot to go to the cards.

—

On DraftKings, this fight isn’t a lock to be optimal but I feel pretty safe with the floor on each side.

Zalal is priced at 8.4k, and although he was taking early week action, the line has come back down which I find interesting.

Of the two, I am less confident in Zalal’s upside and ceiling though, and so if he is chalk, I would consider this a viable option to get away from in large fields. Zalal only scores 15.4 DK points per 5 minutes which is pretty low, and Sterling is only allowing 11 points per 5 minutes, according to MMA Labs.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Zalal landed 100-125 sig strikes over five rounds here, though it’s worth noting that in past five round fights, Aljo has allowed 55 to Ortega, 99 to Cejudo and 63 to Yan. If he only lands those strikes, he will only score in the 70-80 range and won’t be optimal.

So you are counting on a finish, or more likely, grappling for Zalal to reach 100 points and truly contend for the optimal. I do think it’s somewhat realistic because Sterling doesn’t defend takedowns well at a base level. It gives Zalal upside to land 3-5 takedowns potentially, even if he does little with them.

It’s still a little thin. Zalal could land three takedowns, earn five minutes of control, and land 100 significant strikes and score in the mid-90s. He is also only +240 to win ITD so a finish really isn’t expected.

I think I still prefer to play Zalal to be honest, because in a loss case for Aljo, I think grappling will still be involved. Both of these fighters only spend about 50 percent of the time at distance, so we will see grappling exchanges.

I think Zalal will rate out as a very safe option, with a good chance to exceed value at 8.4k, and score in the 90-100 range. He’s a viable secondary or primary target outright, depending on how you feel.

I am slightly nervous about his top-end ceiling, and if we see a bunch of other early finishes in this range, I think Zalal could get pushed off the optimal with a mid-90s score. It’s worth some consideration if he’s super chalky and you’re looking for a way to be different.

Sterling is priced at 7.8k and rates out similarly as Zalal, with a higher ceiling.

Sterling scores 18.5 DK points per 5 minutes while Zalal only allows 9.7 points per 5 minutes, so it’s not a smash spot on either side. But in a win case for Sterling, he should be landing a bunch of strikes, a handful of takedowns, and earning meaningful control.

Sterling averages 102 DK points per win and there’s more wiggle room if he were to underperform, considering his 7.8k price tag. I view him as a solid secondary option.

Sterling rates out as a very safe target, who even in a loss, could score a lot. Sterling literally just scored 62 DK points in a three round loss against Evloev. I could see him surpassing 50 DK points over five rounds here again, with upside for more.

That’s still probably not enough in tournaments though, so if you play him in tournaments, you want him to win. That’s where things start to become more shaky, and it would be more viable to get away from him if you are confident in the Zalal side.

I don’t have a high degree of confidence in either direction, and my instinct is to play this around the field percentage. Aljo presents enough of a threat with enough of a historic backing to make me think he can win some rounds, but I’m not ultra confident that he does enough to pick up the win.

At 7.8k, given his grappling style, he’s worth mixing in, and he should be leverage against Zalal. I’ll probably play him in cash games and he gets a boost in smaller fields. There are a handful of other viable underdogs this week though, so he’s not a true must.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zalal by Decision (Confidence=-Low)

Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards

Fight Odds: Dumont -225, Edwards +190

Odds to end ITD: +275

DraftKings Salaries: Dumont 8.8k, Edwards 7.4k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a decent matchup here in the women’s bantamweight division between Norma Dumont and Joselyn Edwards.

Dumont is a solid fighter and has won 9 of her last 10 fights. She is best as a technical striker. She lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.12 in return. She defends strikes at a fantastic 65 percent. She has pretty good striking metrics. 

She comes from a striking background and you see it in her game. She has decent hands and leg kicks. She can also control range pretty well. She can outstrike girls at this weight class. She just has a knack for neutralizing her opponent’s striking offense. She limited Karol Rosa to landing only 33 significant strikes in three rounds. 

Dumont also has only been outlanded one time in the UFC against GDR 16-11 in significant strikes, but Dumont wrestled in that matchup and didn’t really focus on striking. I love that consistency and she tends to double up all of her opponents.

Dumont can also land some takedowns and I consider her an underrated offensive wrestler. She lands 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed 6 takedowns in her matchup against GDR. She also landed 3 takedowns against Chandler so she does have that in her game. I honestly like Dumont’s game for the most part.

The main issue with Dumont is that she doesn’t always dominate rounds as she doesn’t put up a ton of aggregate offense. She did land 159 significant strikes in her matchup against Irene Aldana though which was an impressive pace for her. So it was good to see she is capable of throwing more volume if needed. I will say though. I know she doesn’t land a ton of strikes. However, she actually wins rounds clean because she doesn’t get hit. She outlanded Vieira 62-25, Aldana 159-69, Chandler 47-22, and Ladd 65-33. Those are clean wins.

Dumont can be clinched against the cage and neutralized which is why she lost vs Macy Chiasson. She defends takedowns at 68 percent, and I consider her defensive wrestling competent. However, she doesn’t have the best get-up game when she is actually grounded and good grapplers can take advantage of her to a degree.

Still though, Dumont is consistent. She is 9-1 vs pretty decent competition and outlands almost every opponent, and she can strike pretty damn well and grapple decently too. The Aldana performance was also mad impressive.

Dumont will be taking on Joselyn Edwards. So I want to start off saying that I have never minded Edwards. I bet her at -250 against Tamires Vidal and it turned out to be free money. This was when Edwards was coming off two losses in a row so that more so showed that I thought Vidal was awful more than anything. Edwards was not a popular bet there at the time either.

Overall though, I do not mind Edwards and I don’t mind playing her against weak competition. She will feast off those girls. And that is exactly what Edwards has done. She has feasted against bums and now I think she is very much overrated. Her last four wins are against Tamires Vidal, Chelsea Chandler, Priscilla Cachoeira, and Nora Cornolle. She honestly looked awful vs Cornolle too and cleanly lost round one. You could argue none of those girls are UFC level and Vidal may be the worst female fighter in the roster’s history. 

Edwards’ other wins are an undeserved win against Pudilova, and then she beat Ramona Pascual and Ji Yeon Kim. That is seven wins in the UFC and that is one of the weakest win resumes I have ever seen.

When Edwards has fought anyone decent, she honestly hasn’t looked good. The best fighter she has fought is likely Karol Rosa who absolutely dominated her. Jessica-Rose Clark schooled her. Perez schooled her. Now Edwards is +130 against Dumont who is the best fighter Edwards has fought? Seems crazy to me. Okay rant over but I think you know who I am picking in this matchup. (Note from Brett, Edwards is no longer +130, she is +190)

I consider Edwards a decent striker. She lands 4.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 in return. She has some decent volume which is good. Again, these numbers are padded though man. Look at her competition. Cornolle and Perez were straight up beating her on the feet.

I still do think Edwards is decent as a striker though and has moderate power for a WMMA fighter. She really likes to utilize kicks to the body to score points and clear distance and manage range. I don’t trust her as much in boxing range.

Edwards’ weakness has generally been her grappling but she has improved as a grappler. She was taken down 5 and 4 times against Clark and Rosa and controlled somewhat easily for over 11 minutes in each fight. Pudilova also had top control success against Edwards. Edwards has some submissions off her back and can use athleticism to scramble up when she gets space. She isn’t completely awful as a defensive wrestler anymore and now defends takedowns at 61 percent. I still think Edwards can be taken down and controlled but she has looked better lately.

Edwards is actually not bad if she gets top position and she has been offensively grappling more lately. She landed 5 takedowns against Cornolle and 4 against Vidal. She also landed a couple of takedowns in the rematch against Cornolle, and lands 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes now. She can get hooks in and threaten on top and land GNP. Wrestling is at least a route she has shown she can go to now.

As far as this matchup goes, I just think Dumont has beaten way better competition and Edwards has feasted off bums so this line is closer than it should be. 

Like where is Edwards better? On the feet, I could see it being competitive but I think Dumont is clearly better and exponentially more proven, more experienced and has better metrics against better competition. I just think Dumont will probably win the rounds pretty clearly even if it is competitive at times.

I honestly think Edwards might try to wrestle. Cornolle was landing shots on the feet and Edwards immediately started going to wrestling. I don’t think Edwards likes getting hit. The issue is I don’t think Edwards is that good of a wrestler and I would argue Dumont is the better wrestler. Like Dumont could land takedowns here herself, and I think she has better takedown defense than Edwards.

I just think Dumont is going to be better here. I think Edwards can compete to a degree but I am expecting Dumont to win a 30-27 / 29-28 type of matchup where she is just a better striker, a better wrestler and just shows that this is too much of a step up for Edwards.

—

On DraftKings, the steam hit before prices came out, so Dumont is pretty expensive at 8.8k.

The matchup is interesting because Tim makes a lot of good points, and obviously he was on the right train of thought buying into Dumont at a much cheaper betting price. Now at -225, Dumont does feel fairly pricey and from a fantasy standpoint, she’ll be tough to prioritize.

My issue with Dumont is just that she doesn’t produce a ton of offense. She’s somewhat safe to land 60 strikes and maybe a takedown, but that doesn’t always dominate rounds. And of her nine UFC wins, all nine have come by decision.

Dumont is averaging only 81.7 DK points per win, which is weak and doesn’t necessarily excite me for 8.8k. She has still actually topped 90 points on five occasions though, which feels like a ton.

In those better performances, Dumont has landed several takedowns, earned lots of control and landed non-significant strikes. She also landed 159 sig strikes against Aldana over three rounds.

Despite crossing the 90 point threshold, Dumont has still only reached 95 points one time, so it’s not as if she’s producing smash scores consistently. And then we also see the downside where she can score 60, 63, 73, and 68 which pulls down her overall average.

In this particular matchup, I’d bet on Dumont scoring closer to an average score than I would bet on her scoring 90-100. Edwards has been taken down a bunch of times, so perhaps Dumont has meaningful upside here, but there is zero guarantee of her wrestling with any urgency.

Dumont is also +425 to win ITD so she won’t rate out well. Ultimately, I don’t think people will play her at 8.8k and I lean toward her being the contrarian option of this range.

I can’t completely rule her out given some wrestling potential, but there are much stronger options on paper priced both above and below. I’ll have limited exposure, though I think she has mild contrarian viability in this shaky 9.1k-8.5k range.

Edwards at 7.4k is one of a couple of targets who I think will get traction based on box scores.

Despite facing weak competition, Edwards has crushed. She’s scored 100, 110, 109 and 119 in her last four fights, which automatically makes me think she’ll trend toward being chalk.

The betting line obviously moved against her heavily, and I don’t think this is a clear smash matchup, but with the exception of Alencar, the public still may look to Edwards ahead of everyone priced below Barcelos at 7.6k.

I don’t think Edwards is a great target, and if she is popular, she’s probably a good option to pivot away from.

My only hesitation is that she can wrestle a little bit, and Dumont has some defensive wrestling issues. I know Tim isn’t super worried and the line move is promising, but Dumont gave up a couple of easy takedowns in her last fight and had her back taken. I really wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 1-2 competitive rounds, and suddenly, Edwards winning a decision is live.

But Edwards is only +550 to win ITD, and each of her recent four big scores came ITD. So right off the bat, Edwards’ ceiling should be viewed as being much weaker than her box scores suggest.

Dumont also doesn’t absorb a ton of offense, so this really isn’t a great pacing matchup or opportunity for Edwards to produce points. I guess she really needs a bunch of takedowns to win rounds and otherwise, won’t score much.

I don’t think Edwards is an awful target for 7.4k, and she does have mild decision equity. She can wrestle a bit and I think she’s a fine technical fighter. From a game theory standpoint, I’d lean toward getting off the chalk in this range and pivoting onto some riskier but higher upside targets both above and below.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dumont by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez

Fight Odds: Hernandez -115, Garcia -105

Odds to end ITD: +160

DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.5k, Garcia 7.7k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a battle between two UFC veterans here in Alexander Hernandez and Rafa Garcia.

Hernandez is an okay fighter. He lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.50 in return. He is capable of landing some big shots with some blitzes. He has some speed too, but other than that I don’t think he is particularly good or skilled on the feet. 

I do think Hernandez’s overall pace on the feet has looked better in a few of his more recent matchups though. I also think he is mildly improved as a technical striker as well on the feet. He obviously has some pop early too and is capable of early knockouts.

Hernandez has struggled going through adversity in fights. We have seen him broken on numerous occasions, including to Billy Quarantillo, Drew Dober, and Donald Cerrone.

Again though, I do think he has looked tougher down the stretch in his last few fights.

As a grappler, Hernandez is competent but not great. He comes from a wrestling background. He lands 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. He outwrestled Olivier Aubin-Mercier to a grinding decision which was his best 15-minute performance to date. He also took Drew Dober down 3 times but couldn’t keep Dober on the mat and was eventually knocked out. I do think Hernandez can outgrapple weak to below-average grapplers in this division but that’s about it.

Defensively as a grappler, Hernandez is pretty solid. He defends takedowns at 73 percent. He is not very easy to take and hold down, but he can get his back taken and beat on the mat and body triangled especially when he tires out.

Overall Hernandez is a fine fighter. He can strike and grapple a bit and he has some early KO upside. I just do not fully trust his cardio or ability to fight through adversity but again I do think he has improved both of those to a degree. I just doubt it is no longer an issue anymore either.

Hernandez will be taking on Rafa Garcia. I consider Garcia a wrestle-boxer. He will strike a bit and look to land takedowns. Other than that, there isn’t a ton of depth to his game.  I think his best asset is his toughness and that he tries very hard. He will compete hard for three rounds. He is a tough guy.

Garcia is an okay tough boxer. However, I don’t consider him skillful and he kind of just relies on toughness. He lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.54 in return. He is an adequate boxer but nothing special either. I do think he looked decent in his last matchup against Jared Gordon though where he won a war by third round knockout. He outlanded Gordon 91-65 in significant strikes.

Garcia does at least willingly wrestle. He actually lands 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good. However, a lot of his takedowns have come against weak competition. I don’t think he is all that skilled as a wrestler. He is just tenacious and tough which isn’t a bad thing. However, more skilled grapplers should be fine against him. 

Garcia defends takedowns at 76 percent which is good and he does work up decently well too. He did get dominated on the mat by Grant Dawson which there is no shame in. However, he also had some sketchy moments on the mat vs Drakkar Klose.

Garcia is just an okay UFC talent. He is semi well-rounded, is tough, and will fight hard. However, he isn’t particularly good at anything either.

Overall, both Hernandez and Garcia are similar in the sense that they are both generalists who don’t thrive anywhere but don’t have major holes either.

I do think Hernandez is a more skillful guy. I think he is probably a more skillful striker and grappler. I also think Hernandez is more likely to just land a quick knockout. Hernandez has round 1 KO upside in general and Garcia is moreso an accumulation finisher. So Hernandez does have win conditions here. I could see him hurting Garcia early or just by winning a couple of rounds, most likely the early rounds, by being a bit faster and more skillful.

However, I do think Garcia has an advantage in toughness. Garcia won’t quit and he has cardio. Garcia can fight through adversity well. Although Hernandez has stayed tough lately, he has completely gassed and quit and been finished in several fights. I do think if this turns into a dog fight, Garcia is the tougher fighter and may just pour it on Hernandez and win. So I do think this could play out competitively more and more as the fight goes.

My guess is Hernandez either knocks Garcia out early or Hernandez wins round one, Garcia survives and this becomes a bit of a dog fight. I will pick Hernandez to win but I wouldn’t be shocked if this turned into a back and forth war.

—

On DraftKings, I consider Hernandez a viable boom or bust target at 8.5k.

The betting odds are actually trending against him, and typically that means ownership will follow suit. But Hernandez has scored well recently, putting up 90 or more in each of his last three fights.

So despite the fact that we could see this fight close near a pick’em by fight night, I still expect Hernandez to get some ownership and would be surprised if he was outright contrarian.

The issue is that Garcia is tough, and has never been knocked down. Hernandez is only +275 to win ITD for this reason. Without a knockout, I think Hernandez is more likely to score in the 80 point range which would not be enough at 8.5k.

So it’s a tough call here. You’re really betting on the athleticism and power of Hernandez to overcome everything else. Garcia looked a bit shaky early on in his last fight, so I wouldn’t rule the finish out. But it’s a tough thing to trust.

Ultimately, Hernandez is still a fine secondary target in my opinion and if he’s outright contrarian, I’d label him a viable contrarian play. A lot of his wins do come early, and he might be underowned with the betting line moving. He’s just a boom or bust secondary option but I’m fine getting some exposure for his upside.

Garcia is priced at 7.7k and is rating out more as the value side.

He’s down to -105 to win, and any closer to even money, he’d be a real strong play based on the moneyline alone. I still think he’s going to get a bunch of ownership now with the line moving toward him this much.

Plus, there’s some merit to Garcia from a matchup sense. He’s a moderate volume boxer who can land strikes, and we’ve seen Hernandez get tired and quit before. A close decision or maybe some damage is on the table. I don’t think Garcia will have much wrestling success.

I think Garcia rates out as a pretty viable win equity option, but not a massive ceiling threat. I think he’s someone who makes sense for mid-range builds, and I’m happy to use him as a secondary target because of it.

Garcia is +376 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong. The higher owned he is, the more I would consider pivoting away from him. I still think he makes sense in these mid-range builds as there’s some questionable chalk in the lower 7ks, but I’m not dying for a big investment here either.

My guess is I’ll end up with a fair amount of exposure to Garcia, probably along the lines of the field. It would be perfectly reasonable to prioritize a different option nearby with more finishing equity on paper though.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti

Fight Odds: Grant -135, Martinetti +115

Odds to end ITD: +110

DraftKings Salaries: Martinetti 8.2k, Grant 8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues as Adrian Luna Martinetti makes his UFC debut against veteran Davey Grant. Let’s dive in. 

Adrian Luna Martinetti was on the opposite end of the so-called “greatest Contender Series matchup of all time” that was brought up often last week, as he took on Mark Vologdin last October. He took home the victory in that matchup and showed plenty of great qualities inside the cage. 

I’ll admit, that was probably the best performance he could have made on the Contender Series, because he didn’t show that same success regionally. I think that was a ceiling performance of his. But man, it was a fun scrap and he did show some solid skills. He is 17-1 as a pro and does have plenty of cage time, but it hasn’t come against the best level of competition. 

Martinetti has a solid frame for the division at 5’8, and he was able to use that well in his last matchup. Although he’s not the most technical striker or the most defensively sound, he marches forward and looks to put a pace on fighters and break them late. He has never been finished as a professional and has been able to fare well with that size and aggression to date. 

On the Contender Series, he landed 223 strikes on 329 attempts, as well as mixed in 3 takedowns and some control time. He showed great pressure and really solid knees in the clinch, doing damage that would’ve put away most fighters. However, he has been content to win decisions in the past. He has a 59% finish rate split between 4 KOs and 6 submissions, with 6 of them coming in the first round. 

He is uber aggressive so against the lower level fighters, Martinetti is able to blitz and hurt them, but he can often be hit in return. It says he wasn’t dropped according to the UFC stats, but he was hit hard multiple times by Vologdin, although he did show great toughness and ability to push through it.

Additionally, I have my questions about his ground game. He was the aggressor in his last matchup with 3 takedowns and almost 4 minutes of control. But I have seen him put on his back regionally, and I wouldn’t want to rely too much on his offensive wrestling. Furthermore, he can land submissions but he isn’t blowing me away on the mat and I do think better competitors can have some success grappling with him. 

Overall, Martinetti is a pace striker who prioritizes offense and volume, and has a great ability to land damage from range and from the clinch. He is extremely durable, has great cardio and will look to win minutes with his volume from range, but I do have questions about his striking defense, wrestling defense and level of competition. I do think better strikers can counter him well, but if you do not neutralize his offense early, he will pour it on you with the strikes and look to get you out of there.

Davey Grant makes his return to the Octagon this weekend as a 40 year old veteran looking to get back in the win column. We last saw him in the Octagon back in October of last year, as he was flying knee’d and then guillotined by Charles Jourdain. Having been in the UFC since 2013 as an Ultimate Fighter season 18 finalist, Grant has been around the organization for over a decade and holds a record of 8-7 in the promotion. 

“Dangerous” Davey Grant has some solid wins in the promotion, including Chito Vera, Da’mon Blackshear and Jonathan Martinez, and is no easy out for any fighter. Now with a record of 17-8, Grant has shown his skills inside the Octagon time and time again, and we know what to expect when he enters the cage. 

He is a tricky range striker with solid power and real funky movement that can confuse some fighters. He has durability to stand with the best of them on the feet, and has solid cardio to last all three rounds. In his entire professional career, Grant has never been KO’d, showing that durability, although he has been knocked down 4 times in the UFC so he doesn’t want to take too many shots at his older age. 

He does have solid volume though, as he averages 5.14 strikes to his 3.82 absorbed per minute. Although not always the most powerful shots, Grant has lost close decisions because of his lack of damage, although the volume is there, such as we saw in the Marcos fight where he outlanded Marcos 70-48 but lost a split decision. 

Grant has actually outlanded 11 of his 15 UFC opponents, showing not only the volume, but also a 55% striking defense and some creative footwork that is often hard to read. 

There are two big issues for Grant though, aside from the age. First of which, is the fact he fights on close margins. Although he is often out voluming guys, he doesn’t always land the biggest shots and can lose moments. Although he is 3-0 to the KO in the UFC, he is being knocked down just as many times as he is landing knockdowns, and has been in some close decisions. 

The second is the ground game. Although he himself has 7 submission wins to go with his 73% overall finish rate, he has been submitted 5 times overall and 4 times in the UFC. It hasn’t been an issue as much of late, but he was submitted in all 3 of his first 3 UFC losses and we most recently saw him guillotined by Jourdain. 

Although it is improving, he can be taken down and put in dangerous positions. He is defending takedowns at 63% and can also lose minutes on the mat. Surprisingly, he can actually wrestle as well if he wants to, where he is averaging 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 40% accuracy, and actually has 7 submissions himself. However it hasn’t always translated to the UFC as he has been taken down and submitted more often and although he has one win by SUB, which was a really cool inverted triangle, it was a last minute come from behind SUB after he was taken down 5 times and held down for multiple minutes. 

At the end of the day, his best chance comes in the striking. He is funky, hard to read and will land plenty of volume, and he himself can land a knockdown shot. However he does fight on close margins, can be taken down and although he has never been finished in the UFC, has been hurt a few times now.

This has all the makings of a fight of the night this weekend. I would add that this is a massive step up for Martinetti, taking on such a veteran of the sport. But if either guy gets their way, they want to brawl it out on the feet. 

Grant has had some success doing that. He brawled with Yanez, Vera (twice) and Jonathan Martinez and had success. His tricky footwork is hard to read and he does have solid power. I do think defensively, he is levels above Martinetti, and he may even be the quicker guy too. The issue is that although he is historically extremely durable, he is getting up there in age and has been hurt a few times now. 

So although I expect Grant to be the better of the two technically and be able to land on Martinetti, can he survive the constant offense coming back his way? Is he able to withstand another brawl or is he more susceptible to damage at this point in his career? That’s the real question. 

The other aspect is the grappling. I would tend to believe Grant’s the more likely wrestler of the two, but that hasn’t been his style recently. He hasn’t landed a takedown in 5 years and don’t know if he’s the more physical of the two here. Maybe Martinetti could have some success, but it’s tough to control Grant and I don’t think that’s Martinetti’s style either. 

So simply put, I think we get a war on the feet. I think technique and speed go to Grant, durability and pressure go to Martinetti. I don’t fault anyone for taking Grant, he’s definitely more proven. But I’m going to side with Martinetti. I think he lands the more impactful shots, will be the one on the front foot and we know Grant’s optics can hurt him. Give me the newcomer in a close one.

—

On DraftKings, Martinetti is actually the more expensive side at 8.2k, though he’s moved to a slight underdog on the betting line.

I wonder how the public will view this, because typically, value overrides the rest. So it would be totally reasonable to expect Grant to come in higher owned as the value side at 8k.

However, Martinetti has a lot of hype coming off that win, though maybe it looks worse with Vologdin losing last week. Grant is 40 years old. I’m personally not excited to play Grant.

I would rather take chances on the Martinetti side personally. He’s 10 years younger, fresher, and he’s a solid volume fighter with good durability. Grant has been knocked down a bunch of times.

I do think Grant could beat him, but Grant is kind of slow. I prefer Grant more against an opponent who lacks volume.

Martinetti at 8.2k is a viable secondary option in my opinion. Especially if he’ll be low owned, he seems like a decent upside play. I don’t have a ton of faith in him necessarily, but I expect a somewhat high-paced scrap, and I wouldn’t be that shocked if Grant got hurt.

Martinetti also has submission ability which is typically how Grant loses, so a club-and-sub RNC is definitely on the table. Martinetti is only +315 to win ITD, so he’s not going to rate out spectacularly well.

You can still argue he’s not a fantastic play. If the fight hits the score cards, 120 sig strikes landed isn’t enough. Maybe that’s the most likely outcome and he’s not even favored to win. So Martinetti doesn’t have to be a priority this week.

I just think there’s some more general variance in durability on the Grant side and if Martinetti does win ITD, he’ll score super well given the high pace of the fight. I’m willing to take some chances here myself.

Grant at 8k is the value side but I’m less interested in him.

I kind of think he’s run hot too. He’s won by knockout multiple times in fights he’s been knocked down. I don’t put a ton of stock into his more recent finishes over guys like Louis Smolka.

Maybe Martinetti will just get hurt and lose ITD but that would be a surprise to me based on the durability he’s shown. Grant isn’t necessarily that fast anyways, and I think Martinetti can avoid the big power shots. Grant’s low kicks may be his most dangerous weapon.

Grant is actually getting action to win ITD and is down to +235 ITD, so he has some upside on paper. If you want to mix him in as a secondary target, that’s OK. I have even less hope for him in a decision though, and I think an 80s type score is more likely than scoring 100 points or more.

If the betting line continues to move heavily in the direction of Grant, I’ll reconsider, but for now, I view him as more of a low-end target who may have a better floor in a win than a super high ceiling.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Martinetti by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos

Fight Odds: Jackson -185, Barcelos +160

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Jackson 8.6k, Barcelos 7.6k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a good matchup here in the bantamweight division between Montel Jackson and Raoni Barcelos.

Montel Jackson has been in the UFC forever but he really hadn’t fought any of the historically ranked fighters. He had 12 UFC fights and had fought basically Ricky Simon. All his other competition had been lower tier guys or mid level competition who never really made it to the top 10-15 in the division. I was just surprised that Jackson never got a step up vs some top 10-15 guys more consistently.

Jackson then fought Deiveson Figuereido last October and Jackson had a pathetic performance. He basically fought Fig in an extremely low volume kickboxing affair, and outlanded Fig 30-23 in significant strikes and lost a split decision. Like what in the hell was Jackson thinking? He is clearly better than Fig but he just decided to not push a pace and not do anything and turn the fight close. 30 significant strikes is insanely low volume. It was concerning and honestly makes me hesitant in picking Jackson in competitive fights going forward.

At his best, I do think Jackson is a good fighter, and he comes from a wrestling background. I consider him a good wrestler but he’s not perfect. He lands 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. He can ride out top position. He is clearly capable of out grappling UFC competition. However, I do question his ability to outwrestle good grapplers. 

Montel is a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 67 percent and is generally good at scrambling up. He uses great hand control to scramble up. He did lose to Ricky Simon and Brett Johns though who outgrappled him. Fig also took him down. Good grapplers can definitely have success vs Jackson, but he can generally defend himself just fine against most of this division.

I also consider Montel a skilled and dangerous striker. His athleticism and speed assist him in his striking tremendously. He lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.40 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent.

Montel is long and controls range well. He has decent power and is capable of hurting opponents with his straight punches and kicks. He knocked Blackshear out dead recently. He also looked good in his decision win against Julio Arce on the feet. Still though, that Fig fight was concerning and sometimes Jackson just doesn’t throw enough volume.

Jackson is still a solid fighter and is very well-rounded. He can strike and grapple, and he is a capable finisher with power and front choke submissions as well. He also seems durable and I have never really seen him hurt before.

Jackson will be paired up against Raoni Barcelos. I have generally respected Barcelos’ skill as a fighter. He is a pretty decent striker and has that classic aggressive Brazilian striking style. He lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.40 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. He also has some moderate power and has landed 3 knockdowns in his last 9 fights.

I also respect Barcelos as a grappler. He lands 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a capable submission grappler and submitted Chris Gutierrez a few years back as well as Christian Quinonez. 

Barcelos also showed he can still grapple and wrestle in his recent upset win against Payton Talbott. Barcelos was a monster underdog in that matchup and landed 8 takedowns, obtained 9:43 of control and obtained a lot of dominant positions on the mat. He is capable of passing and taking the back. Barcelos also has stellar TDD at 87 percent. 

The issue with Barcelos at this point is his career trajectory. He is 38 years old which isn’t ancient or anything, but he is on the older side for bantamweight. He also is not as good as he used to be. He looked declined against Quinonez even though he got the win. 

Barcelos is still skillful though and that is what has allowed him to beat relatively inexperienced fighters in Talbott and Quinonez. I also like that Barcelos has not been getting knocked out often either. He has declined but he has only been knocked out once by Umar Nurmagomedov. He survived Talbott and Kyler Phillips.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think this is pretty competitive. I do like the raw aggregated offense of Barcelos. Barcelos will look to attempt a lot of takedowns and attempt a lot of strikes. Urgency can just keep people competitive in fights. Jackson sometimes just doesn’t do enough and I could see the hustle of Barcelos winning this fight. Barcelos could just stay enthusiastic in striking exchanges, Jackson may just kind of be defensive and occasionally throw, and Barcelos may land a takedown or two to win a close fight. After the Fig fight, I can’t fully trust Jackson.

I still think Jackson is better than what he showed in that Fig fight though. When Jackson’s power shows up or he just throws a little more, he is good. I think if we see Jackson at his best, he should win this fight. I think Jackson is more likely to win by knockout than Barcelos so that gives him an advantage. I also think Jackson is faster on the feet and more skillful defensively. I also think Jackson can generally defend takedowns here and scramble up. I also think Jackson’s power could show up here to win a decision too. I could see him hurting Barcelos in a competitive fight numerically that swings it to Jackson.

I am going to go with Jackson because I think if he fights to his potential he should win. However, that Fig fight will never leave my mind.

—

On DraftKings, Jackson is a very boom or bust target at 8.6k.

His offensive issues have stemmed long before the Figueiredo matchup in my opinion, and we actually had a piece of Fig as a big dog in that last fight. Jackson has been highly dependent on knockdowns against weak competition in the past, and he’s not a super stable fighter.

With that said, he’s massive for the division, skilled, and his hands are bigger than Ngannous. It makes sense that he can continue to win and progress but he’s just not as consistent as we’d like.

In this matchup, he needs a KO. He won’t throw enough volume and he won’t have a real wrestling advantage. Barcelos is super tough historically but aging.

Jackson is +160 to win ITD which is still solid. He’s a fine upside target and he probably won’t be super popular. I just don’t see how you can be confident in this play or have a ton of exposure given Barcelos’ history. But I’m fine with mixing Jackson in just in case, and he fits better into standard mid-range builds.

Barcelos is priced at 7.6k and I think he’s a solid secondary target.

Once you get below Barcelos, you shouldn’t really be expecting winners. Barcelos is someone who I could definitely see winning or competing well.

I don’t know if I’m going to pick him to win, but like, even in Jackson’s last matchup, Figueiredo just takes him down and immediately mounts him. I can’t really overlook those kinds of exchanges because it’s a flaw in Jackson’s style. It makes me want to pick Barcelos and if Barcelos simply survives, the fight probably should be competitive.

I don’t think Barcelos has elite upside, or much finishing equity here. He’s +625 to win ITD which is poor. He does have a recent win against Talbott where he landed eight takedowns, so obviously that kind of performance would place him comfortably on the optimal.

I have mixed feelings on this one ultimately. I’ve always been a big Barcelos fan and I’m skeptical of Jackson. This isn’t an easy matchup though and Jackson doesn’t yield a lot of offense. I like Barcelos as a win equity target and as a direct pivot off Garcia. I won’t go crazy on this one though because there’s a very reasonable chance Barcelos lands 1-2 takedowns, 30 strikes and just loses the fight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jackson by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann

Fight Odds: Buchecha -140, Spann +120

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Buchecha 8.3k, Spann 7.9k

Weight Class: 205

We have a low-level but hopefully fun light heavyweight matchup between submission ace Marcus Buchecha and early finisher Ryan Spann.

This matchup was put together on a few weeks’ notice as Buchecha was originally scheduled to face fellow grappler Max Gimenis, but Gimenis pulled out and the UFC swapped in Spann on April 8th.

Buchecha is now 0-1-1 in his UFC career and 5-2-1 professionally, so he desperately needs to get his hand raised. 

Buchecha is 36 years old and was one of the stars of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu as I was first getting involved with the sport myself. He’s a 2x ADCC champion, a 7x IBJJF champion in the Gi and a 2x champion in No Gi.

In the sport of jiu-jitsu, Buchecha is a physical force on the mat. A good wrestler. An elite passer. An elite submission artist. He’s simply one of the best to ever do it. He has a 5-1 record over Rodolfo Vieira for reference, who I’d put in the same category as Buchecha, though Buchecha fights at a heavier weight class.

Buchecha made his pro MMA debut in 2021 in ONE FC, and he earned a 5-1 record in the organization, winning four times by submission and once by TKO.

As you might imagine, at HW, Buchecha is just aggressively shooting takedowns and choking guys out. He does hold one heel hook in that span, as well as a north/south choke, so he can do more than your standard RNC, but the point is that he is going to be a threat on top against anyone in the sport.

In his one regional loss, he fought a tough opponent in Kane who is a physical beast and was able to just roll through Buchecha. He outwrestled him, and was the far more dangerous striker. Buchecha actually did land a few takedowns over the course of the fight but couldn’t find the submission, and really couldn’t compete with the physicality and pressure of Kane.

I did like that Buchecha at least survived three rounds, but I would still consider his cardio to be suspect. He can throw with some power but we shouldn’t bet on any striking volume.

We’ve now seen similar things from Buchecha in both of his UFC performances, which both went to a decision. Buchecha lost his UFC debut 29-28 to Martin Buday, who was able to defend a bunch of takedowns over 15 minutes and force stand-up exchanges, where Buday was superior.

Buchecha still took him down in the second round and won that round, nearly finishing the fight. But he went 0/6 in round one and 0/4 in round two, and only landed 24 significant strikes in total.

I thought for sure we’d see a finish in his matchup against Nzechukwu, but the two fought to a draw. Nzechukwu defended 9/11 takedowns in rounds one and three to edge Buchecha out, but gave up some dominant control in round two that nearly led to a stoppage.

I have very mixed feelings because I do like when Buchecha gets on top, and I still think he can finish fights. I also like his toughness and durability. His cardio isn’t elite but he’s been able to survive and even when he faces some adversity, he’s come back to land a takedown and threaten both of his opponents.

He’s still not fantastic and not as physical as I’d like him to be. His finishing instincts on the ground have been underwhelming. He also flops to his back too often and I don’t love the optics there. And obviously he’s very reliant on grappling success which makes his game thin overall.

He’ll be taking on Ryan Spann this week who’s had a very up and down UFC career. He’s officially 10-7 in UFC affiliated fights and only three of them have gone to decision.

I’ve never been a fan of Spann. I think he’s a decent boxer with some early finishing power, but his volume is mediocre and his cardio and durability are weak. So we’ve seen Spann pick up some huge early finishes, but we’ve also seen him knocked out several times.

More importantly, Spann hasn’t won a fight outside of round one since 2020, which was a split decision over Sam Alvey. He’s not trustworthy to produce offense for 15 minutes and he slows down.

Spann is also a guillotine specialist, which I hate. He’s somehow made it work because this division sucks, and four of his last six wins have come by guillotine. He is not a great grappler in general though. He only lands 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he defends them at 52 percent.

Spann has also been submitted in the first round twice.

I don’t think we’re likely to see evolutions in Spann’s game at this stage of his career, and especially so on short notice. I expect Spann to come out hot, look to land some power shots on the feet or snatch up a guillotine. If he can’t, perhaps he can outlast Buchecha by being the better striker but it’s quite difficult to trust.

I don’t have much faith in either guy, I lean toward Buchecha surviving the first round. He’ll still need to land takedowns to win, which I am not super sold he can do consistently, but I’ve also seen Spann taken down early and I’ve seen him quick tap to submissions before.

If Buchecha wins, I think a late first round or mid second round submission is pretty likely, probably a RNC. Maybe it comes with some adversity early or maybe not.

If Spann wins, an early knockout is in play, though it’s tough to trust, it’s a semi-realistic outcome since he’s definitely the better boxer of the two. Again, if he can just stuff takedowns, he can oustrike Buchecha over three rounds as well but it’s hard to rely on his cardio, on short notice especially.

I don’t put a ton of stock into the guillotine here since Buchecha is an elite submission grappler and should be able to defend just fine. If Spann pulls Buchecha on top of him with a guillotine attempt, I’d lean toward Buchecha winning ITD rather than Spann winning ITD. But I suppose you can’t rule it out, especially if Buchecha is tired or hurt as well.

This is a high-variance fight that makes sense to line competitively. I suppose I lean toward Buchecha given his ability to fight past the first round, and I think both sides are pretty live for a finish.

—

On DraftKings, the fight is lined -600 to end inside the distance so it’s going to rate out really well.

It will be interesting to see what the public does here because as we see more and more, box scores affect public ownership. 

Buchecha is going to rate out well as a grappling specialist in the mid-range at 8.3k, with a strong ITD line at -105. Yet in his two UFC fights, he’s scored 41 and 40 DK points. That will keep his ownership limited.

On paper, it makes sense to attack Buchecha. I will say that I’ve been on him in each of his last two fights, and I’ve now been burned twice by it. So I honestly don’t feel great chasing exposure again.

But on paper, Buchecha has a reasonable path to win ITD at a reasonable price tag. Spann is allowing 107.9 DK points per loss, which is a ton. Given Buchecha’s style, a 90-100 point score in a win is very achievable. 

You don’t have to go crazy on exposure here, but I’d consider him a strong secondary, boom or bust target, and someone who you would potentially want to come in overweight to given his finishing metrics.

Spann at 7.9k is a viable upside target.

I don’t really love him but he has first round knockout upside in his range of outcomes. He is +140 to win ITD which is strong for the price.

The downside is that he’s just so limited. He won’t wrestle much, striking volume won’t matter, and so you’re so reliant on a quick finish which really scares me. But Spann shouldn’t be super popular either and you can argue coming in overweight on the fight as a whole makes a lot of sense.

Personally, if I have to land somewhere, it’s there. This is one of two fights that are extremely likely to end inside the distance, and we get the benefit of it also being a binary matchup.

I expect the other fighters in this range to gain enough ownership that the public may overlook this one a tad, in relation to how owned it should be based on finishing metrics alone. Neither side feels very comfortable and the fight could bust in another extended affair. But I’d probably rather just play into it, get a sizable amount of Buchecha and a lesser amount of Spann, and hope for the best.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Buchecha by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico

Fight Odds: Vieira -300, McConico +250

Odds to end ITD: -130

DraftKings Salaries: Vieira 9.1k, McConico 7.1k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a mess of a fight here in the middleweight division between Rodolfo Vieira and Eric McConico.

So Vieira’s bread and butter is his grappling. He is an extremely dangerous submission artist and has won 5 of his 6 UFC wins by submission. His wrestling is decent and he lands 2.70 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a decent double leg and he can take average to below-average guys down.

Once on top, Vieira is quite effective with advancing position and looking for arm triangles and RNC submissions. I just always consider his powerful takedowns, passing, and submissions to be a threat against anyone early in fights. The early grappling blitz will always be a path to victory for him.

Vieira can tire a bit and become less effective and explosive later on in fights. However, ever since gassing to fluffy Hernandez (who just pushes a crazy pace), he has paced himself and fought past the first round somewhat decently here and there.

Vieira isn’t much of a striker, but he is okay and can wing some occasional power shots. He lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.38 in return. He is pretty basic and not great. I am uncomfortable when Vieira is stuck standing.

Vieira is also coming off a brutal head kick knockout loss against Bo Nickal. That was a really bad knockout and it was only in November and has only been six months. So it kind of makes me nervous he is fighting so soon.

Vieira will be taking on Eric McConico. McConico is an American fighter who is 10-4-1 professionally and he is 35 years old. His 4 losses have come by knockout. 

McConico made his UFC debut against Ruziboev and was quickly knocked out. McConico then won a close decision against Cody Brundage in a back and forth fight where they struck a little and clinched a little. He then lost by third round knockout against Baisangur Susurkaev.

McConico is kind of a generalist. He can strike a little bit and can put together some decent combinations. He can also clinch a little and grapple a little too. His defensive grappling is okay but he can be taken down. He will at least try to work up though. He has at least never been submitted in his career which could come in handy vs Vieira.

I don’t think McConico is terrible but he just doesn’t thrive anywhere and isn’t good at all. He is also low volume as a striker at times too. I also really hate his durability and he has been knocked out a few times even on the regionals.

I just think McConico is a guy who will maybe have some competitive fights against the bottom tier of this division and that is about it. He won’t go anywhere in the UFC. 

As far as this matchup goes, I do think Vieira has the takedowns and submission in his back pocket. I could see Vieira getting a quick td, and getting a good position and submitting McConico. 

I am still a little skeptical though just because McConico isn’t a terrible defensive wrestler and he does work up decently well. Vieira isn’t a great takedown artist either. It wouldn’t completely shock me to see McConico survive that early grappling blitz of Vieira and then all of the sudden we have a 15 minute kickboxing fight which could steer into a shitty split decision.

Yea it’s like on the feet, I don’t even really know who I favor. Neither are great strikers, and I think it would be a shitshow. It isn’t a fight that would shock me to see McConico win though. So I do think McConico has chances here.

Still though, McConico just isn’t good anywhere either so Vieira can compete everywhere. Vieira is at least an elite submission grappler so I will pick him for that reason. I could legitimately see him getting a submission off a takedown.

—

On DraftKings, this is a pretty messy fight that I think most will choose to avoid.

Vieira is priced at 9.1k and needs an early submission. I do think it’s possible and it’s a reasonable outcome to pick, but there’s still not a guarantee it would produce an optimal score.

In his submission wins, Vieira has scored 114, 90, 84, 106 and 105. I guess it is a decent resume but it still makes me nervous and I kind of profile him as a boom or bust grappler.

The other issue is that Vieira just isn’t a very good wrestler. He went 1/14 on takedowns against Gore and 1/11 on takedowns against Petroski. Those fighters are OK defensively but I just wish Vieira was better. McConico is defending takedowns at 64 percent which is mediocre.

Given the additions to the top range, I think we’ll see the public pay up when possible, and that will leave Vieira to get squeezed at 9.1k. I don’t think he’ll be outright contrarian, but I do view him as a place to be different.

In that context, he’s arguably a good play. He’s +115 to win ITD which is pretty decent. We know he carries upside in the right situation.

I’m not dying to play a ton of Vieira this week, but I view him as a fine upside option and a solid differentiator. I’ll mix him in when I can’t pay up further, and I think pivoting off from a higher priced fighter and leaving salary could be a good way to be unique.

McConico is priced at 7.1k and is not someone I’m excited to roster.

He’s just so low volume, and obviously won’t carry much of a grappling advantage. I do think he could win competitive striking exchanges but I still lean Vieira there.

The knockout is really what you want from McConico. He’s not necessarily a knockout artist but anything can happen, and Vieira was just knocked out. If Vieira can’t land takedowns, who knows.

McConico will be pretty low owned too, and is kind of just a dart throw. I don’t really see a way to prioritize him but he makes for an interesting pivot off the chalk above.

If I was playing lots of lineups, I’d get a sprinkle of exposure to McConico just in case. But he’s only +525 to win ITD so it’s not a super likely outcome and ultimately isn’t a real priority.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vieira by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey

Fight Odds: McVey -185, Dumas +160

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: McVey 8.7k, Dumas 7.5k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

Usually I write up a formal opening, typically introducing both fighters, the weight class and say “let’s dive in”. For this matchup, it’s a bit different. I don’t want to dive in. Both Jackson McVey and Sedriques Dumas are bottom of the barrel middleweight fighters and we are in for a DOOZY of a low level matchup. Throw all the technique, defense and for Dumas, obeying of the law, out of the window. So sit back, relax and enjoy as I try to make sense of this disaster class of a fight.

Sedriques Dumas has certainly had a rough go in his UFC tenure and well, in life. Dumas has now been arrested several times and has had issues with the law that has prevented him from fighting at certain points in the Octagon. You would assume those issues with violence would lead to him being aggressive and dangerous in the cage, but he hasn’t translated that to the UFC. Since winning on the Contender Series in 2022 via first round guillotine, Dumas has gone 3-4-1 in the Octagon with all of his wins coming via disappointing decision to poor competition. 

He was able to have 11 minutes of control time against Brundage, outpoint Abu Azaitar from range and then fight close with Denis Tiuliulin, who was even able to land 3 takedowns of his own. Despite those wins, he has also lost 4 times in the UFC, all of which came via finish. He was submitted against Fremd in his debut, KO’d by both Oleksiejczuk and Ruziboev and was most recently submitted by D’onte Johnson in a lacklustre performance. 

At his core, he is a solid range striker with decent power. On the regional scene, he has shown the ability to blitz into range, land powerful shots and have some success. However, Dumas has looked more like “dumb-ass” sometimes recently, as he has lacked urgency, has slowed immensely down the stretch and has really struggled with optics and looking like he wants to be in the Octagon at all. 

He is only averaging 2 strikes per minute at a 44% accuracy and although he has solid power, we haven’t seen it yet inside the UFC. He has a 60% finish rate split between 4 KOs and 2 submissions but yet to find one of his own in the Octagon. It’s actually been him who’s been finished as he has 4 losses, 2 by round 1 KO and 2 by round 2 submission. 

His durability has definitely declined and he’s also not defending submissions all too well. He’s defending takedowns at 33% and can be put in precarious situations on the mat. He himself can wrestle offensively as he averages 1.34 TDs per 15 minutes, but does not progress through his positions well or inflict much damage on the ground, and only has a 31% TD accuracy. 

He had 10:28 minutes of control against Brundage and really didn’t threaten much, landing only 17 significant strikes in total. He also had 6 minutes of control time against a fighter with a known ground deficiency in Tiuliulin, and yet it was Tiuliulin who went 2 of 2 on takedowns in round three. 

All of this goes to show that although I do think Dumas has some promise, he has struggled to put it all together. A lack of volume, urgency and ground offense does not look good when you’re fighting close with low level fighters, and with all of his losses coming by finish, I worry he cannot absorb damage or deal with pressure well either, as his cardio often falls off in the second round. 

The tools are there, and I do think he is dangerous with his range, pure athleticism and willingness to wrestle, but we haven’t seen him really want to be in the cage and his recent run-ins with the law make him hard to trust.

Jackson McVey looks for his first UFC victory this weekend after starting 0-2 with the promotion. He made his debut as an undefeated 6-0 prospect. He had a lot of success regionally with 6 wins, all of which ended in the very first round, but to a very low level of competition. 

He had a 100% finish rate in round one, split between 3 KOs and 3 submissions. He kept that round one streak going in his debut against Brunno Ferreira, just in a loss this time. He was taken down and submitted by armbar early by Ferreira, however that was a tough task on short notice. 

He followed that up against Zachary Reese, in a fight he had more success in. He landed 53 strikes, had 2 and half minutes of control and won the first round against Reese. That fight was the first time he saw round two, and ultimately he was taken down and finished quickly into the round. 

His frantic pace doesn’t seem like a style that can be maintained for long, and he has still yet to make it to the seven minute mark in his career. However, when fresh, he looks to be decently dangerous. He is a lanky middleweight with a 6’4 frame and a 77” reach. “The moose” is uber aggressive off the start and is instantly trying to close the distance and work in the clinch. He isn’t the best striker from range, but in the clinch he is able to use his long limbs to lock up a pretty solid front headlock series. 

He has some good dirty boxing there too but there is a very limited sample size on him so far. He had some success in the clinch against Reese and I do think he can be dangerous in that realm with his work rate. 

I still have questions about his cardio and his distance striking in extended affairs. It seems like although he has the frame, he doesn’t utilize his reach well and leaves gaps defensively blitzing in. He is currently defending strikes at 23% and although he is out voluming his opponents early, with 5.87 strikes landed per minute to his 3.82 absorbed, can certainly be hit when closing the distance and entering the clinch. 

Although he attacks the back well and uses the front headlock series to get finishes, I also have my questions defensively as he has been submitted three times, including on the amateur scene in 41 seconds to Wes Schultz, marking the only loss in his 6-1 amateur career. 

Overall, I think McVey is an all-action early grappling threat, who can lock up submissions and look to implement damage in the clinch. However I have my questions about his grappling, distance striking, cardio and level of competition and I have to see more from him before trusting him at too high of a clip.

Well, here we are. I heard a rumor that this fight was rescheduled because Dumas needed his ankle monitor removed before being cleared to fight and although I don’t know if that’s completely true, it’s funny and it’s what I choose to believe. I don’t believe either fighter has much of a career in the UFC. 

With McVey, you see great urgency, danger in the clinch and a willingness to inflict damage. We used to see that from Dumas, but recently he has been extremely tentative and looked uninterested in the cage. McVey certainly scares me. He’s hittable, doesn’t offer that much from range and we have never seen him past the 7 minute mark. The difference is, he wants to be in there, he wants to win. Dumas himself is also slowing down late, doesn’t want to be in there and isn’t offering that much. 

I know Dumas has the more proven skillset and I can trust him to win minutes, but if he doesn’t want to be in there can I trust him to survive the early blitz from McVey? I think I have to take McVey to at least want to be in there and push a pace early. Although he can be hurt and will tire down the stretch, I can at least trust him to have some initiative, look to cause some damage and look to submit Dumas in ways we have seen done before. 

Low level matchup with plenty of variance, but give me McVey to get his first UFC win this weekend. Disgusting. 

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On DraftKings, this is one of the best fights on the slate and I will aim for lots of exposure.

On paper, it’s a spot the public should target aggressively as well, but I’m unsure if they will. Neither fighter has won recently, and McVey as the favorite will be tough to trust with poor box scores.

On the other hand, McVey looked good in the first round last time around, which is partially why he’s favored here, and he’s -160 to win ITD which is really strong. At 8.7k, McVey will have one of the better finishing projections on the slate.

I’m honestly not going to think too hard about this one. McVey rates out as one of the better targets on the slate in my opinion, and I’d be thrilled if the public was still scared by him. He is terrible but he has a decent shot to win early, is -160 to win ITD and is affordable.

I don’t completely know if McVey will fight similarly as we saw in his last fight, but he’s shown to be very aggressive in the past and Dumas can be broken. McVey is one of the better plays on the slate in my opinion in a fight that’s -160 to end in Under 1.5 rounds.

Dumas is also a very strong play at 7.5k and will fall in as more of the Jai Herbert type of play from last week.

I really don’t think Dumas will be highly owned and I’d guess the safer, strong box scores options below him like Edwards and Alencar will gain a lot more ownership.

There’s no reason to be excited by Dumas or have any faith in him. I hope he gets crushed. If he wins though, it’s probably an early finish. McVey has terrible takedown defense and questionable durability. Dumas is +220 to win ITD which is strong for this price.

Obviously things could go wrong here. Dumas has won decisions in the past and failed to reach 80 points. I think he has higher upside in this particular matchup though and if he’s going to win at all, he may clear 90-100 points and be optimal.

I view Dumas as a strong leverage play against McVey, although I prefer McVey outright, and a strong leverage play against the higher owned fighters priced below him. 

You should have secondary ownership here and potentially aim to be overweight as it’s the fight projected to end the earliest on the entire slate.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: McVey by Guillotine, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague

Fight Odds: Montague -400, Silva +330

Odds to end ITD: +155

DraftKings Salaries: Montague 9.3k, Silva 6.9k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Michelle Montague is going to get an opportunity to beat a former title challenger in Marya Bueno Silva in only her second UFC fight this weekend 

Montague enters this fight with a 7-0 professional record, hailing from New Zealand and training out of American Top Team. She is a former freestyle wrestler who competed at the Commonwealth Games, and her MMA game reflects that background. She is very much a grappling-dependent fighter, having secured six of her seven wins via submission. 

Montague is just a grappler who excels at getting opponents to the ground and controlling them there. 

I think Montague’s takedowns are actually decent. She shot a low single against Carolina in open space which is basically unheard of in WMMA so that was enough for me to think she’s alright. She also has a decent top game and can stifle submissions, and just grind and land ground-and-pound. She is also pretty physical. I think she is a competent submission grappler as well.

In her UFC debut against Luana Carolina, Montague basically just kept taking Carolina down and controlling her, and beating her up on the mat. She got stumbled once but I actually thought Montague seemed tough and had decent cardio too.

Montague is not a highly technical striker, often relying on her grappling to set up her offense. She is going to be a liability on the feet most likely. However, her entire game is built on wrestling and she knows that.

Montague will be taking on Marya Bueno Silva. Silva is a weird fighter. Even though she is mostly a striker, she has 6 wins in the UFC and 5 have actually come by submission.

Silva is an okay striker. She lands 3.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.90 in return. That honestly isn’t good and she can be outslicked and skilled on the feet. Her defense is just not good. However, she hits pretty hard for a woman so she can make up for her negative striking ratio with effective strikes and power.

Silva lands 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t the best takedown artist. I do think she is tricky and has instincts for finding the back, which she did against Pennington in her title fight. However, her actual takedowns aren’t great.

Silva defends takedowns at an okay 63 percent. However, she can be held down for stretches and doesn’t have the best get-ups. She can also surrender ground-and-pound at times. She does have a dangerous guard though. I mean, as I mentioned above, she has 5 submission wins in the UFC.

I don’t totally like Silva’s process as a fighter to be honest. She can lose rounds on the feet by being outlanded because her defense is suspect. She can also be held down on the mat. She is dangerous though. She has finishing ability on the feet and on the mat so it honestly just makes her fights difficult to predict as it is a guessing game on how many big moments Silva can have. Big moments are just tough to predict.

As far as this matchup goes, obviously if the fight stays standing, Bueno Silva will have a chance and could hurt Montague. So there are paths to victories for Bueno Silva.

Montague seems tough though. I don’t think Montague will just get hit and go down easily. 

Montague is just so much better as a wrestler, and I think she can land takedowns and control Bueno Silva pretty easily here. I actually think Montague is a pretty good wrestler and we saw how easily Jasmine and others have taken down and controlled Bueno Silva. I think Montague just takes Bueno Silva down each round and controls her, stifles the submissions, and beats Bueno Silva up a bit on the mat.

I think Bueno Silva’s best chance here is to win by submission either by front choke on a takedown attempt of Montague or by a random guard sub off her back. I won’t completely rule it out as I do respect that part of Bueno Silva’s game. However, Montague is just big and physical and seems fairly skilled and tough as a stifler of submissions. So I think Montague probably avoids the finish and rides out a grappling based win here.

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On DraftKings, Montague is one of the most expensive fighters on the slate at 9.3k and she’ll rate out pretty well.

She is a semi-dependent grappler, in a matchup where she should have takedown success. She’s also coming off a 102 point win in her UFC debut which means she’ll be popular here.

I get it. My only hesitation is that Montague looks like someone who will get beaten up badly sooner or later. I like her wrestling but she was getting rocked by Carolina in my opinion, and she’s also diving headfirst into guillotines. I still respect her skills enough to pick her to win, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised if she just randomly lost sometime soon via guillotine or armbar, or club-and-sub.

Silva is at least someone who can pull off a sub, so I’m mildly concerned. I won’t necessarily back away from Montague but this is still low-level WMMA.

Montague at 9.3k won’t be a must target, but Bueno Silva is allowing 102 DK points per loss which is a ton for women’s MMA. Jasudavicius and Chiasson both scored 101 on her via grappling.

I do think there’s some element of Jasmine vs. Silva here though, meaning Montague could land three takedowns, not do a whole lot with them, and score 85. Even in a high-volume wrestling performance last time, she only barely crossed 100 DK points. Her ceiling is not a lock.

Montague is only +170 to win ITD which is a concern as well. I think she’s a strong target in all formats, with one of the better floor/ceiling combinations on the slate, but I lean toward her being better as a floor type than as a pure ceiling option.

If she’s going to be super chalky, I’d be perfectly fine playing more into mid-range builds this week which have lots of upside. The two fighters priced above her are arguably safer. But she will project quite well and has a pretty reasonable path to 100 ish DK points, so I’m happy to use her as a strong secondary top tier option.

Silva is priced at 6.9k and is possibly worth a flier, similar to how Karine Silva was worth a flier last week.

Bueno Silva has won a few different times via armbar from guard. She’s also the better striker here. She also has a guillotine choke. I don’t want to put the bad juju out there but I’m just not certain how much I trust Montague defensively.

Silva is only a punt though, regardless. She’s a big +330 dog and is +900 to win ITD. She will project very poorly and I don’t really ever like to play her.

In large fields, if Bueno Silva is going to be 8 percent owned or whatever, I’m fine to match the field. I would want a tiny sprinkle of her regardless, just to cover this base with a larger portfolio.

Bueno Silva averages 90.7 DK points in wins which is enough at 6.7k to justify a bit of exposure, but she’ll be a complete boom or bust dart which won’t hit very often.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Montague by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden

Fight Odds: Filho -650, Durden +475

Odds to end ITD: -325

DraftKings Salaries: Filho 9.5k, Durden 6.7k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a short notice match-up between Jafel Filho and Cody Durden. Let’s dive in.

Cody Durden looks to right the ship this weekend after a recent 1-6 performance in the UFC. Although you have to commend Durden for taking on top levels guys on short notice, he has certainly looked a bit rough recently. I can forgive him for losses to Nascimento, Joshua Van and Tagir Ulanbekov, but it was that last performance where he started to show some age. 

He took on Nyamjargal Tumendemberel and looked a bit slow in that matchup. He was taken down 4 times, reversed a couple times and controlled for 7 minutes, all while being out landed 25-8. For someone like Durden who has historically been able to dictate where the fight takes place, that wasn’t the best look. 

At his core, Durden is a wrestler. He is averaging 3.89 takedowns landed per 15 minutes at a 46% accuracy and it was just a few years ago he was landing 11 takedowns and beating Charles Johnson quite convincingly. The wrestling is pretty solid. He has landed a takedown in 12 of his 15 UFC fights and although he isn’t able to do too much damage from top, is able to control fighters quite well. 

He does have a 72% finish rate, split evenly between 6 KOs and 6 submissions. He only has two finish wins inside the UFC and that does come against more fragile fighters in Matt Schnell and JP Buys, so I wouldn’t classify him as too much of a danger factor in the UFC. 

Conversely, he has been finished 7 times, including 6 times in the UFC. He has been KO’d twice and submitted 5 times, which makes it quite interesting. The durability of Durden has been back and forth. He has been dropped numerous times in the UFC, but has also been able to wear lots of damage. 

He was out struck 165 to 70 by Joshua Van but didn’t get KO’d in that spot. He is absorbing strikes at 4.19 per minute to his 3.34 strikes landed, showing his ability to eat a shot on the feet. He has been out struck in 5 of his last 6 spots and the durability may be starting to diminish since fighting in those wars. 

Still though, he is able to compete on the feet, does have decent cardio and can put together some boxing from range enough to win minutes. However, he is still someone whom I expect to want to mix in the wrestling and get on top, where he looks to win most of his minutes. I do have my worries about his physicality and durability, accepting so many short notice fights and getting beaten so many times recently, but I do know that he has the skills to beat the lower echelon of this division. 

Overall, Durden is a well-rounded wrestle-boxer who is able to win minutes in both the wrestling and boxing, but doesn’t hold that much of a finish threat and conversely has looked too slow and been hurt more often in his own right.

Jafel Filho returns to the Octagon this weekend coming off a first round submission win of Clayton Carpenter last October. 

Filho was originally supposed to fight Lucas Rocha this week and has been in camp for a while, but will adjust to a short notice replacement on a week’s notice. Filho is a dangerous grappler. He made his debut on the Contender Series in September of 2022 as a 13-2 prospect. He was able to get a 3rd round KO win in that spot, before unfortunately being paired with the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev in his Octagon debut and getting subbed in that spot there. 

Filho has never shied away from a fight. He’s 3-2 in the Octagon with 3 finishes, all coming by way of first round submission. His losses come to quality opponents in Allan Nascimento and Muhammad Mokaev. Those are forgivable losses, and even at that, he survived late against Mokaev and didn’t get submitted by someone dangerous in Nascimento. 

I do have my questions when he faces a primary striker, as Filho prefers to grapple. He does have dangerous power on the feet and plenty of finishing upside. He has a 94% finish rate split between 5 KOs and 11 submissions. Although powerful on the feet, he doesn’t have the most volume. He’s averaging 1.85 strikes per minute and only absorbing 1.62 with a 50% striking defense. He has been historically durable, never been knocked out, but has still yet to face a predominant striker. The best striker he’s fought was Barez, who did drop him in that match, but he was able to fight through adversity and turn the tables, submitting him shortly thereafter. 

Although I have my questions about him on the feet, his bread and butter is the grappling. As I mentioned, 11 wins by submission and all 3 of his UFC wins have been by first round submission. He is averaging 2.52 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 45% accuracy and attempting 2.2 submissions per 15 minutes as well. He is very well-suited on the mat with the ability to take the back but also threaten some dangerous looks from guard, and reverse positions quite well. 

Although we have seen him submitted twice and reversed on the mat to Nascimento, he was still the aggressor in the wrestling and someone who will largely have an advantage on the mat. The strength he showed in the kimura win over Carpenter only cemented his danger factor on the mat. 

I also don’t know what to make about his cardio. He does look to have good pace and does have a third round finish victory on Contender Series, but I’m not sure how well he fares on the feet late with higher paced fighters, which is something we will learn about him down the road. 

Overall, Filho is an extremely dangerous grappler with plenty of finish upside on the mat and some KO power on the feet, although he is largely untested in the striking and someone who prefers to do most of his fighting on the mat. I would like to see the cardio and striking tested more but I am certainly a fan of what he has to offer in the grappling.

I’m not too sure what to think about Durden at this point. 1-6 in the last 7 is not a good look, regardless of who it’s against. It’s been against decent competition but he is not looking the best. I really think he should be taking more time off to recover because I think his durability is certainly starting to decline. He was club-and-subbed against Nascimento, KO’d by Ochoa and Silva and looked slow against Tumendemberel. Taking a short notice matchup against a dangerous fighter in Filho just seems like a recipe for disaster. 

So does Durden have the skills to volume box from the outside? I guess so. 2023 Durden would certainly put up more of a fight. But I think Filho has more power, will be quicker and have a massive advantage in the grappling. Additionally, he has a full camp to prepare and I think comes in with better shape. 

I think Filho hits harder on the feet and has a massive edge in the grappling where he should be able to snatch up a neck quite quickly. Durden makes mistakes on the mat and Filho has a nasty guard and back taking game. Give me Filho to get this one done and probably give Durden his walking papers. 

—

On DraftKings, Filho is the most expensive fighter on the board and I think he’ll be one of the most popular fighters this week as well.

Filho has actually scored very well in wins – 110, 113 and 105 – so the public will be all over that.

I consider Filho a safe and strong option but I do have some concerns. One concern is that each of his wins have come in round one. So yeah, he’s crushing, but I don’t think Filho will score as well in a decision or mid-round finish, and he’s probably due for regression.

Another concern is that his profile is a bit shaky to me. Filho lands 1.85 sig strikes per minute. He’s pretty grappling dependent outside of moments. He’s also defending takedowns at 66 percent and can be held down. He’s also been dropped.

I think Filho is pretty solid early in fights but I don’t think he’ll fare as well in competitive, back-and-forth matchups.

Another thing to note is that I honestly thought Durden looked OK in his last fight. He probably retires after this fight but it’s not like he looked awful in my opinion. He landed three takedowns, and although he got taken down four times, he earned three reversals. He had a submission attempt late in the fight. Durden is still OK technically.

I think the most likely outcome here is these guys scramble early and Filho finds a finish. Durden just didn’t defend takedowns well last fight and Filho is pretty strong. Filho probably finds a good position and just chokes him out. 

But there is a chance in my mind that if Durden survives and scrambles, he could end up on top. He could win a round or two in that kind of back-and-forth fight, and these guys might have similar cardio..

So Filho in my mind is far from a certainty and is mildly boom or bust, as he probably needs an early finish to contend for the optimal. My best guess is that an early finish is still among the most likely outcomes of the fight though, and likely what I’ll choose.

Filho is -225 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate. I’m perfectly fine prioritizing him in the top end, and I expect he’ll be owned in the mid 30s or low 40s potentially. I don’t view him as a clear standout above Marshall and Montague, but he’s probably the most likely of the group to win early ITD and moderate exposure makes sense.

Durden is priced at 6.7k and is a viable punt, but he’s only a dart throw really.

He did just score 51 DK points in a loss, so he can produce some points. I don’t think he’s likely to replicate that but I wouldn’t completely rule out an extended affair where he lands some takedowns and reversals.

Ultimately Durden is not likely to win ITD at +575 and he’s the biggest dog on the slate. My guess is he’ll be sub 10 percent owned.

Durden probably will sim OK considering he’s still nearly 17 percent implied to win and will likely score 100 points or so if he does win. I’m OK punting with him on occasion with a larger portfolio.

As always, it’s reasonable to come in light on big dogs like this and if you want to exclude him from a smaller portfolio, that’s fine as well.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Filho by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Francis Marshall vs. Lucas Brennan

Fight Odds: Marshall -610, Brennan +460

Odds to end ITD: -130

DraftKings Salaries: Marshall 9.4k, Brennan 6.8k

Weight Class: 155

This is a ridiculously random matchup between Francis Marshall and newcomer Lucas Brennan, and it was only put together early in the week.

Brennan will be making his UFC debut with an 11-2 professional record at age 25. He’s earned eight wins by submission and two wins by knockout.

Brennan is a 2nd degree black belt in jiu-jitsu and submission grappling is his only strength. In fact, I’d say the only thing Brennan is good at is taking the back and winning by RNC.

Of his eight submission wins, six have come by RNC, and all six have come in round one. His other two submission wins also came in round one.

Brennan fought in Bellator from 2019-2023 where he went 9-0, but he wasn’t fighting the best competition. He then lost back-to-back decisions in PFL and Fury FC before moving to XKO where he won via back-to-back RNCs.

Not all of Brennan’s fights are available to watch, but his recent decision losses are, and they aren’t good. The picture it tells of who Brennan is as a fighter is more indicative of a low-level regional prospect and not a UFC talent.

For starters, Brennan can’t wrestle very well. He’s not a bad athlete but he’s not super physical. He will try to clinch and wrestle a bit, but he’s the type to land one singular trip where he immediately takes the back, and is not the type to chain a bunch of takedowns together for multiple rounds.

Defensively, his wrestling is bad. He’s probably fine and willing to play from his back, but his bottom game is not nearly as good as his top game. In the recent decisions, he’s been taken down and laid on top of for whole rounds.

On the feet, Brennan offers nothing that I can tell. He can throw singular strikes, but he’s not powerful and his volume is weak. I haven’t seen him take a lot of hard shots because a lot of his fight time is on the mat, but from what I can tell, Brennan is a liability standing.

His fights are honestly boring. They are very slow. There’s a singular takedown from either side and then not a whole lot of action. Brennan either gets to the back, or he offers little.

To make matters worse, he’s a 145er and this fight will take place at 155 pounds. Francis Marshall is also a featherweight but he’s jumped around at 155 and if anything will carry the larger frame.

I could make a case for Brennan having some grappling success at the lowest levels but I really don’t see a fighter who is likely to win often in the UFC, and he seems relatively dependent on an early submission.

Marshall is now 4-3 in the UFC and coming off a quick submission win over Erik Silva in February.

He’s only a mid-level prospect but is someone with experience, and is relatively well-rounded.

We were high on Marshall coming into the UFC because he looked sharp in his Contender Series fight back in 2022, landing 6 takedowns and 110 sig strikes in a decision there. He hasn’t shown that same volume wrestling in fights since, but has still taken down five of his next six opponents, with varying degrees of success.

On the feet, Marshall is limited, but willing to trade. He has knockdowns over Marcelo Rojo and Dennis Buzukja, and lands 3.39 sig strikes per minute. He is absorbing more than that though at 4.03 per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate.

That’s one concern for me. Marshall has actually never outlanded a UFC opponent numerically. He’s 0-6. That’s shocking. He’s still had striking success and I consider him a fine striker, but he’s consistently falling a bit behind his opponents in terms of volume.

Of his three UFC losses, none actually concern me that much. He lost close decisions to William Gomis and Mairon Santos who are quality, slower paced neutralizers. Isaac Dulgarian demolished him on the ground.

The Dulgarian fight is one to look at in relation to this matchup though, as Dulgarian easily took him down, took his back and pounded him out. Dulgarian is an elite wrestler though when he’s not trying to throw the fight, and doesn’t compare to Brennan.

Still, you can make the case that maybe Brennan has a shot early. Maybe one takedown can lead to a back take and RNC. It’s within the range of outcomes.

I think it’s much more likely that Marshall takes Brennan down than vice versa though. Marshall can probably just land takedowns whenever he wants, survive on top and win the fight. Brennan is a good sub grappler so I’d lean toward him just giving up control time but surviving.

On the feet, Marshall is surely better. I think this will be the first time he outlands an opponent, and he could even do some damage. He may prefer to strike as Brennan doesn’t offer a whole lot.

In that case, I think Marshall would pretty comfortably win rounds and maybe he could win by knockout. I haven’t seen it a ton but I wouldn’t be surprised if Brennan was flopping to his back and forcing ground exchanges anyway.

The only caveat here is just if there’s something in Brennan’s game I’m missing because he lacks a lot of fight time. We’ll see. It hasn’t even been two years since he dropped his last decision, and he’s only fought for two rounds since.

I think Brennan has a mild shot at a back take but otherwise should be comfortably outstruck and outwrestled, likely to a decision.

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On DraftKings, Marshall is priced at 9.4k and I’m guessing he’ll be squeezed a bit between Filho and Montague.

I’m not certain about that and I’ll probably project them closer together in terms of ownership, but Marshall is only +110 to win ITD while Filho is -225 to win ITD. Montague is cheaper and coming off a big score.

Marshall just scored 100 DK points and is arguably the safest of the bunch, but he doesn’t have a clear path to smashing against an opponent who has only lost by decision.

I have mixed feelings here. I think there’s a wider range of outcomes because we’re lacking data on Brennan, and Marshall could employ different game plans. There’s a reasonable chance Marshall could win a slow, boring decision. Or maybe he has early knockout upside. He might also be able to earn 10+ minutes of control and score well that way.

I guess I’ll say that Filho is a very fair fighter to rank ahead of Marshall because he’s much more likely to win in round one. Montague is more likely to wrestle dominate but I think there are clear paths where she could win and score less than 100 points.

So I like Marshall this week but it’s tough to say he’s the outright priority. I’ll likely have more exposure to Filho, and possibly Montague as well because she’s cheaper. The lower owned he is publicly in comparison to those options, the more willing I would be to pivot. I also feel he’s generally safe and should put up reasonable score regardless.

Brennan is priced at 6.8k and is a boom or bust grappler.

I don’t think he’s an awful target considering he may literally need a quick RNC to have any chance of winning. Perhaps he’s decent enough at achieving that one singular thing that he can luck his way into a profitable exchange here.

In general I think he’s one of the least likely fighters to win on this slate, and his overall game looks bad. I’m not willing to put much of an investment behind this play.

Brennan is only +750 to win ITD and won’t rate out well. If you want to throw a couple of darts on him in large fields, that’s OK, but he’s not someone I’ll end up with many shares of.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Marshall by Decision (Confidence=High)

Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela

Fight Odds: Valenzuela -140, Griffin +120

Odds to end ITD: +110

DraftKings Salaries: Valenzuela 8.6k, Griffin 7.6k

Weight Class: 170

We have a super random matchup here between former Contender Series contestant Victor Valenzuela, and welterweight veteran Max Griffin.

Valenzuela will be making his UFC debut with a 13-4 professional record at age 32, fighting out of MMA Masters in Florida. He’s earned seven wins by knockout and two by submission.

Valenzuela is from Chile and is a kickboxer at heart. He’s fairly muscular and is probably best with his hands, where he throws a ton of power hooks from Orthodox. He also likes to throw leg kicks which can do some damage.

Valenzuela fought and lost to Michael Oliveira on DWCS in 2025, getting knocked out badly in the second round. The first round was pretty competitive there, but Oliveira turned up the heat in round two and knocked Valenzuela down three times.

It was an ugly defeat but Oliveira is a legit prospect, and I expect will be making noise soon.

Valenzuela then fought once on the regionals and beat former UFC fighter Yusaku Kinoshita by knockout.

I mostly just consider Valenzuela a mid-level striker. I don’t think he’s exceptional at anything but he does pass the eye test for me in terms of technical boxing. He’s also a tough guy and is willing to stand in there and throw down.

He’s mildly evasive with his feet but not as much with his head, and he took a lot of damage because of it. Training partners like Nate Landwehr at MMA Masters probably doesn’t help.

The positive is that Valenzuela can do some damage. He has legit power with his hooks, and he’s capable of carrying that power into latter rounds. A lot of his wins come early but he has a few in round two or later.

I haven’t seen a ton of grappling from Valenzuela, but it’s likely to be a liability if anything. His first level takedown defense has looked fine, so I’m mildly confident he can defend initial attacks. I’ve seen him lock up triangles quickly from the bottom so he’s submission capable as well, but I wouldn’t bet on much success there longterm.

Mostly, I think Valenzuela can hang around in striking exchanges. He won’t be an elite round winner, and his dependence on damage will probably limit him. But he’s technically OK, can box and kick a bit, and can be mildly effective in competitive rounds.

He’ll be taking on 40-year-old Max Griffin, who last fought in a decision loss to Chris Curtis in 2025.

Griffin is a divisional veteran and his days in the organization are limited. I’ve always thought Griffin was decent as a fighter who has athletic limitations, but will fight for your money. He maximizes the tools he does have.

However, I just don’t think his style is effective in this age.

Griffin is a primary striker, and lands 3.76 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.70 with a 58 percent defensive rate. He’s a fine, competent distance striker. He likes to skate around the outside, and bounce and in out of range.

I hate to boil this down to the numbers but Griffin simply doesn’t offer much. He’s not a major power threat, although to be fair, he does have several knockdowns throughout his career. Every fight of his is competitive.

In recent decisions, Griffin went 59-64 in strikes with Curtis, 26-32 with Wells, 36-72 with Morales, 42-47 with Means and 67-54 with Magny. Each of his last two wins are splits.

I think Griffin is a very competent distance striker who can hang around but he cannot separate on the numbers and takes as much damage as he dishes out.

Griffin can wrestle a bit, but he only lands 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. He doesn’t do much with them, and he defends at 70 percent.

I don’t think highly of Valenzuela, but I’m not super high on Griffin at this stage of his career. Valenzuela will have some physicality advantages while Griffin will be a couple inches taller, with like five extra inches of reach.

In comparison to Valenzuela’s DWCS fight, his opponent there was putting on a lot of pressure and forcing Valenzuela backward. I see Griffin more willing to evade and play on the back foot here, and so I don’t think the fight will play out the same.

My expectation ultimately is that it will be a competitive striking affair. I lean toward Valenzuela having more power and being more effective on a strike by strike basis. I lean toward him having success in terms of optics. But I think Griffin is the more experienced fighter who is longer, and should be able to stick and move. If no damage occurs, I probably lean toward Griffin getting the nod.

Griffin has proven to be ultra durable throughout his career, and he’s never been truly knocked out in the UFC in 18 fights. He has been hurt a few times, and I think a knockout is in play for Valenzuela, but it won’t come easily. Griffin being 40 years old definitely makes me a little nervous as his durability could fall off a cliff at any time.

Conversely, Valenzuela was just knocked down three times on DWCS and you could sell me on the idea that he can be hurt again. I don’t really think Griffin is the guy to do it, as he just does not compare to Oliveira, but who knows.

I don’t have a strong fight lean ultimately, and I think Griffin will probably be doing more work until Valenzuela lands some occasional big shots that can or will swing rounds in his favor.

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On DraftKings, this looks like a fairly boom or bust spot that leans toward the bust side if anything.

Valenzuela is priced at 8.6k and is dependent on a knockout. He won’t wrestle enough and I don’t think his volume will matter too much. He’s mostly reliant on damage and a knockout to reach a ceiling.

Based on Griffin’s historic durability, you can argue that Valenzuela simply is not a great target this week. Griffin doesn’t engage a whole lot and the pacing won’t be super high. Valenzuela is only +235 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong.

The two primary aspects that give me pause are that Valenzuela is a big hitter, and Griffin is 40. A knockout could occur. I think Valenzuela is extremely boom or bust but I do think a knockout is in play.

I won’t consider Valenzuela a primary target this week at all, and I honestly expect the field to be scared away from him. With a potentially low public ownership, he’s a fine upside tournament target on paper. I won’t have too much exposure but mixing him in as a secondary or contrarian target in larger fields makes sense.

Griffin is priced at 7.6k and is honestly cheaper than I expected him to be. I was considering him more dependent on the finish as well but now in the mid 7s, I guess he has some win equity on paper and could even be viewed as a value.

I still feel worse about his fantasy prospects compared to Valenzuela and his ITD line is even worse at +340.

Griffin only averages 86 DK points per win which is really low, and the only times he’s smashed, he either won by quick KO, or he randomly landed six takedowns. A couple of takedowns are in play here but it’s not enough for me to be excited about Griffin.

I think you’re just hoping for randomness essentially. That Valenzuela has some recurring issue and gets hurt again. It’s not an impossible task but not one I want to bet on.

My expectation is that Griffin will be relatively low owned this week, despite the value. If you want to be different, he’s here, and mixing him in as a low-end secondary target is viable.

I still think he’s more likely to win by decision than KO, so I worry about his ceiling. As a mid 7s win equity play, he’s got some viability but isn’t at the top of my list.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Valenzuela by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri

Fight Odds: Polastri -240, Alencar +205

Odds to end ITD: +215

DraftKings Salaries: Polastri 9k, Alencar 7.2k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a binary matchup here in the strawweight division between Talita Alencar and Julia Polastri.

Alencar is a Brazilian fighter who is 7-1-1 professionally. She comes from a solid BJJ background and is a three time IBJJF no-gi world champion.

Alencar is very much grappling dependent in MMA. She isn’t very physical and she is basically a liability on the feet. She kind of reminds me of Carla Esparza except a worse version. She just struggles standing and is so small, and basically stays out of range against her opponents and can get teed off on if her takedowns fail her.

I do think Alencar has decent takedowns though. Her one loss and one draw came against Stephanie Luciano who I actually think has very good takedown defense and get-ups. Luciano was a terrible matchup for Alencar and I played Luciano there. So I actually thought Alencar was semi-underrated after losing to Luciano because I actually do think Alencar has some decent takedowns, and I ended up playing Alencar vs Demopoulos because of it. Alencar then recently won dominantly against Ariane Carnelossi.

Alencar can double leg, high crotch, snatch single, etc. It was just hard for Alencar to get that game going against Luciano especially in the second fight. On top, Alencar is also decent. She can hold position, pass, and threaten with submissions and ground-and-pound. I basically think she will just feast on below-average grapplers in the UFC and then get beaten up vs anyone who can stop takedowns. Alencar did show some cardio issues against Luciano but I moreso think it was because Luciano made Alencar work very hard. Alencar attempted 24 takedowns against Luciano which isn’t something she will need to do in this matchup.

Alencar will be taking on Julia Polastri. Polastri is a Brazilian fighter who is 14-5 professionally.  She made her UFC debut against Josefine Knutsson and lost a decision by generally losing the striking exchanges. Knutsson is a decent prospect and a good volume striker though so I don’t fault her much for that loss. 

One recent win of Polastri’s came against Cory McKenna by split decision. She basically beat McKenna on the feet and outlanded her 88-40 in significant strikes. She really dominated the first half of that fight in the clinch. However, she was taken down in round 3 by McKenna and lost that round. She then lost a close decision to Loopy Godinez where she got behind early but rallied back late. She most recently beat the crap out of Karolina Kowalkiwicz.

Polastri has also had two Contender Series fights. She lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius a few years back by getting outgrappled which is a forgivable loss. She then won by submission against Patricia Alujas to book her ticket to the UFC.

Polastri is a bit of a freestyle fighter. On the feet, she is competent and okay. She can mix in some punches and kicks and is pretty tough too. She has a decent front kick to the body too. She has some mild power. She can fight at an occasional high pace which she did against Patricia Alujas, and landed a ridiculous 58 significant strikes in the first round. She lands 6.40 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.40 so she has a decent pace. I think her physicality and pace are her best assets in general.

I still think Polastri is a bit basic on the feet though and can be hit plenty herself. She is just kind of okay as a striker. She is physical though and I do think she is good in the clinch and in close quarters. 

Polastri can grapple a bit too. She can land some occasional takedowns and she seems competent in top position. She has a few submission wins in her career and I consider her competent on the mat.

Defensively as a grappler, Polastri is okay and defends takedowns at 60 percent. Good grapplers can take her down and hold her down but she is not a fish out of water on the mat and has some physicality. She can use that physicality to defend the occasional takedown and work to her feet. 

Polastri obviously has two grappling based decision control losses to Jasmine and Godinez. However, she wasn’t dominated in either matchup and won a round in both and showed resistance. Those girls are good too. So when Polastri has faced solid grapplers, she has still achieved some success in the fights.

As far as this matchup goes, this is very binary. Polastri is way better standing and should be at an advantage on the feet against Alencar. If for whatever reason this plays out standing, Polastri will probably win and may even get a late finish. Polastri’s striking advantage is surely why she is favored in this matchup.

I actually do think Alencar can land takedowns here and float on top and get some control, especially early in this fight. It wouldn’t shock me if Alencar snuck out a close decision based on early control success.

However, Alencar just outwrestled Carnelossi and Demopolous who are atrociously bad defensive wrestlers. Polastri is not a perfect defensive wrestler but is significantly better than those two. 

I just think Polastri will give some resistance and it will result in stretches where Polastri is beating Alencar up standing. I could just see this becoming a damage vs control thing. Also, the cardio advantage for Polastri is pretty clear. Polastri was beating the crap out of Godinez late in their fight. I think round 3 is going to get potentially ugly for Alencar.

So I think we get Alencar coming out here early and landing takedowns and maybe winning round 1 but no guarantee. Eventually, I think Polastri will just keep resisting by defending the occasional takedown, getting up here and here, and that will cause Alencar to get tired with Polastri eventually taking over.

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On DraftKings, this could be an intriguing fight to target but we’d prefer that one side dominates, which I’m not sure will be the case.

Polastri is priced at 9k and I don’t expect her to be owned too much. She is coming off a 100 point score which will give her a boost, but she won’t carry nearly as strong finishing metrics as others in this range.

Plus, there’s the obvious potential for Alencar to take her down early, kill off some time, and kill off Polastri’s upside. That’s the primary reason why I’d be cautious here.

What you want if you’re on Polastri is for her to make Alencar work hard early, beat her up and score a mid or late round finish. It is definitely possible and it would come with a decent score. Polastri is still only +260 to win ITD though, so it’s a tough outcome to bet on.

I view Polastri more as a gamble than as an outright priority this week. If it works out, it will look obvious in hindsight, but there are plenty of ways where it could go wrong. And the most likely outcome could be similar to what we saw with Jourdain vs. Phillips last week where Jourdain ultimately won the decision and scored in the mid-60s.

I do think you should have exposure to Polastri this week with a larger portfolio, given the binary nature, but it’s a spot I’d put a pretty firm cap on given the potential for downside.

Alencar is priced at 7.2k and falls more into the punt/cash type of pay down target, though you can argue she’s a semi-priority in some ways.

I am expecting her to be popular. She’s coming off back-to-back 108 and 103 point wins, which is fantastic, and shows her upside in wins. In a win condition here, I’d expect a similar result because she’ll likely need another five takedowns.

Polastri has also lost twice to grapplers, and she gave up 100 and 108 DK points in those instances. Alencar truly has tournament winning upside at this price.

For that reason, it’s honestly tough to get away from her. She has a clear path to landing some takedowns, and at that point, maybe she can just win the fight. It is clear her recent wins came against much worse competition though, which is why she’s a big dog now.

I’ll summarize this by saying that Alencar will project pretty well for her price given her style, and the odds for this to go the distance. She’ll be a very viable cash game target, and she’ll carry one of the best floors on paper of any underdog.

If she wins, she’s also likely to contend for the optimal lineup, and because of it, she’s a worthwhile secondary target. Coming in around the field percentage makes sense.

I don’t mind taking the underweight approach though, because ultimately if she loses, she is very unlikely to be optimal. I think we’ll see her higher owned than she should be based on her recent wins, perhaps in the similar tier as Edwards. Playing full into the mid-range, or taking a shot on a lower owned dog like McConico/Silva etc is one intriguing way to be different this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Polastri by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)