UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira (10/12/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
Fight Odds: Taira -285, Royval +233
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Taira 9k, Royval 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
Tatsuro Taira is on the hunt for the title, and the UFC would love to give him that opportunity if he can get past another top contender in Brandon Royval this weekend.
Taira is 24 years old, and he’s never lost, holding a 16-0 professional record that includes six victories in the UFC. He’s coming off a main event victory over Alex Perez in which he jumped on Perez’ back in the second round, and injured Perez while dragging him down to the ground.
Perez was a good opponent to test Taira, and I was excited to see that fight play out in an extended fashion. But with the fight ending in less than two rounds via an injury stoppage, I’m glad we get to see Taira face another quality test like Royval.
Taira is an athletic flyweight with good distance management, and he generally works all the way on the outside, or all the way on the inside.
His distance game is still a work-in-progress though, and he has never topped 30 distance strikes in a fight before. He’ll generally throw a rear kick, and a hard right hand, but he’s primarily a single shot guy and his aim is usually to use his striking to set up grappling entries.
He has shown some power elements, but I would say the better aspect of Taira’s striking is that he has not really allowed much to come his way in return. He currently lands 3.56 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing only 1.70 per minute.
If he can continue to limit engagements and work a grappling game on his terms, Taira will be tough to beat.
However, there are a few potential questions and or red flags with Taira.
The primary concern for me is his level of competition. He has fought Carlos Candelario, CJ Vergara, Jesus Aguilar, Edgar Chairez and Carlos Hernandez prior to taking on Perez. These are fighters who you compete against to determine whether you belong in the UFC, while Perez at least was someone you could fight to determine whether you belong at the top of your division.
It’s just a completely different level of opposition, in some ways, if we’re comparing those first several names to a fighter like Perez or Royval. Several of those names I would not even qualify as being “good”, let alone a real challenge for Taira. They’re all poor wrestlers, and poor athletes, with little power.
Despite Taira officially getting his hand raised against Perez, he did lose the first round unanimously while failing to land a takedown, giving one up to Perez, and losing the distance striking battle 16 to 14. He had the dominant position in round two but that point alone isn’t enough to clear my concerns.
Another concern I have is that although Taira has limited striking engagements, he’s still defending strikes at 47 percent. And despite almost never getting hit, he was knocked down by Chairez in their fight.
I have potentially major concerns for Taira if he is forced to box with someone competent for an extended period. He might do well to limit exchanges there still but it’s hard to favor him to produce lots of volume, and I worry he could get hurt.
I also have some concerns with the fact that Candelario took him down twice and reversed him three times. It was in his debut, and Taira still won the fight, but Candelario is a pretty low-level grappler and I didn’t think Taira looked great on the bottom. Perez is a strong wrestler and did land the one takedown, but it didn’t amount to much.
Against a good wrestler, I worry that Taira could get stuck on the bottom or wear down to the point of vulnerability.
All this to say, I don’t think Taira is a fully polished prospect yet. He has some developing left to do, but we haven’t fully seen him tested so I think as he continues to get steps up in competition, we’ll learn more.
For now, I highly respect his back taking game and he’s very strong from top position. He’s a good wrestler, averaging 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I think he’ll continue to have ground success.
Without dominating from top position though, I am a bit skeptical of whether he will hold up.
Brandon Royval is a fun test for Taira and a huge underdog in this matchup, despite coming off a five-round main event win over the former champ Brandon Royval.
I didn’t give Royval the greatest chance to earn that upset, largely because of his wrestling issues which will once again come into play here.
Royval is largely a pace based fighter, averaging 4.33 sig. strikes landed per minute while absorbing 3.42 per minute with a 46 percent defensive rate. He’s not the best athlete, nor does he have elite physicality or power, but Royval can spam offense and wear down opponents.
He’s literally coming off a fight against Moreno that he potentially should have lost, but his pure willingness to throw volume was what saved him. In that fight, Royval attempted 510 sig. strikes while Moreno only attempted 211. Forget about what actually landed, if you have someone attempting 100 strikes per round for five rounds, it’s going to look good and it will be effective in reality to a degree.
Royval is also a very strong submission grappler, though primarily offensively, and he will threaten both from top and bottom. He’s not in top position super often though, and he only lands 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes.
His defense is the real issue as mentioned, and he defends at 40 percent, which is awful. He’s given up eight takedowns twice in his last five fights, but shockingly he won one of those, which says a lot about his willingness to scramble and fight from any position.
Royval is just a level behind the rest of the top tier in terms of pure athleticism, physicality and technique. He doesn’t have one-punch power so he needs to spam offense. He can’t really stop takedowns or get fights to the ground himself. He only wins with cardio, pacing, and sub grappling.
It works though. Royval has won six of nine fights in the UFC, only losing to Pantoja 2x and Moreno 1x. Fighting that level of competition, including twice in main events that have gone five rounds, will certainly help Royval moving forward.
This is an interesting matchup because Taira is very clearly the better wrestler, on paper and in reality. He should be able to land takedowns, potentially whenever he wants, and that gives him a pretty huge leg up to begin the contest.
Plus, with those takedowns, he could easily earn lots of control, and he’s quite likely to take the back multiple times. Pantoja subbed Royval with a RNC in 2021, so I think Taira has finishing ability on the mat as well.
With that said, Pantoja could not finish Royval with eight takedowns landed in 2023. And Moreno couldn’t do much with three takedowns landed in the last fight.
If Taira cannot get Royval’s back and choke him out, Royval can win. That would force Taira to either continuously take Royval down, round after round, and control him for long stretches. Or strike with him.
Either method could work or could fail, and I’m not totally sure, but I definitely have my concerns.
I just cannot imagine Taira attempting that many strikes over 25 minutes. It’s quite possible Taira only attempts like 150 sig. strikes in 25 minutes, and Royval is capable of way more.
It might not all be effective, but Royval can kick from the outside and jab, and literal willingness to throw continuously can tire out opponents. I should also note that Royval has pretty poor defense too. He doesn’t move his head a whole lot so even if he’s throwing offense, it’s possible Taira can crack him. I’m just pretty skeptical Taira can keep up over five rounds if neither guy gets badly hurt.
As far as the grappling situations, even when Taira gets him down, Royval is competent and will scramble or threaten with subs. I definitely give Taira a moderate control advantage, but it’s not as if Royval cannot grapple. If he can scramble up to his feet off a couple of early takedowns, Taira may wear down quickly. I’m unsure exactly how it will look but this is why it’s a good test.
Ultimately, Taira makes sense as the favorite on paper due to his clear wrestling and control advantages. Royval isn’t the best athlete or technician.
But Taira has absolutely not proven he can fight at a high pace, or deal with much adversity, or compete for 25 minutes and each of those things are major question marks until we see it. All considered, I think Royval is fairly live to pull off the upset if he can avoid being strangled in the first couple of rounds.
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On DraftKings, Taira is going to rate out as one of the top overall plays on the slate and he should be one of the most popular fighters on the slate as well.
He’s scored 96, 102, 99, 103, 107 and 97 in his six UFC wins, which is very strong and will definitely draw attention. Now that he’s in a main event against an opponent whom he should have a wrestling advantage against, Taira’s floor and ceiling seems extremely strong.
Plus, he’s only 9k, while there are several strong options priced above him, Taira now feels like a value. With high-end grappling upside in this situation, and a -120 ITD line, Taira can be prioritized in all formats.
My only real hesitation is that Taira is not necessarily a volume producer. That’s why he’s “only” scored in the high 90s several times, as opposed to 120+. While he may have a higher ceiling in this particular matchup, he could still win by RNC in round one and score around 100 points, as one example.
It simply presents one out for Taira to perform well but miss the optimal. There are several strong options in this price range and if a few hit, 98-105 may not be enough. If you have a large portfolio to play with, those outcomes may be worth considering as fading the main event in any spot will be one easy way to be unique.
With a more limited portfolio, and in smaller tournaments and cash games, Taira is one of the easiest clicks on the slate and I’d expect him to score very strongly in any kind of win.
Royval is a strong target as well at 7.2k and I’d label him as a strong secondary option whom it makes sense to roster with a medium-sized portfolio.
Of course, if you’re playing light and want to bank on Taira winning, that’s fine.
But I do think Royval has outs. He’s priced cheaply and he will carry moderate leverage against Taira.
The primary issue is floor. Royval will probably be held down and won’t be able to produce much offense early (or in general). He might just lose and score nothing.
So you’re more banking on a win if you’re playing him, which would be an upset. There are several other dogs to consider on this slate as well so I don’t think Royval is an outright priority. He’s only +500 to win ITD.
He can strike in volume and grapple though, and Taira is not immune to losing rounds unless he’s in clear control on the mat. Even if it’s a low-end target, I think punting on occasion with Royval makes sense and I think he’s arguably being undervalued in this spot due to the unknowns on Taira.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Taira by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Brad Tavares vs. JunYong Park
Fight Odds: Park -191, Tavares +163
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Park 8.5k, Tavares 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off his first loss in five fights, I am sure JunYong Park is eager to get back into the cage this weekend against Brad Tavares.
To be fair to Park, I thought he won that fight against Andre Muniz and it was a bad decision by the judges as Park did way more damage.
Park has generally put together a solid UFC run. He is 7-3 with two of his losses coming to Gregory Rodrigues and Anthony Hernandez. He actually nearly finished both of those guys too. His other loss was to Muniz which as I mentioned above, I thought he won. So Park has had a good chance to win every fight he has been in thus far.
I actually don’t mind Park as he is an aggregate producer of offense. He will land strikes and look to land takedowns at a decently high rate. He is actually willing to do things which is good.
I consider Park best as a boxer. He lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.30 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. Park has some tight boxing in his straight punching and has a nice jab as well. He also has a good low kick that he mixes in. I think he also has fast hands. He likes to come forward and push the pace on the feet.
Park is also a decent offensive wrestler. He lands 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about four takedowns per fight. I consider him a competent wrestler who can outgrapple below-average competition. He actually won his last three wins by RNC.
Park defends takedowns at 57 percent. I don’t think he has the best TDD and decent grapplers can definitely have success against him and take him down as Muniz just showed. However, Park is still competent. He actually defended 21 of 24 takedowns attempted against Eryk Anders. He also gave Hernandez fits with his get ups. I like that Park at least tries to work up, and I think his get ups are decent. He likes to give up his back and work up immediately. He is also aware of hooks coming in on the way up and generally doesn’t allow hooks to be placed in.
Park will be taking on UFC veteran Brad Tavares. Tavares is mostly a striker. I don’t like his volume as he only lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.15 in return. However, he is somewhat skillful and does have a decent amount of power. He is capable of beating below-average strikers in general. He has some nice low kicks, but I do think he is a bit vulnerable to inside boxing exchanges.
Tavares doesn’t really offensively wrestle. He only lands 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has never even won by submission in his UFC career.
Tavares generally has good takedown defense though and defends takedowns at 81 percent. So he generally can sprawl and brawl and beat grappling dependent fighters like Omari Akhmedov, ACJ, and Chris Weidman which were his last three wins.
As far as this matchup goes, I do lean Park a bit. Park has a four-year youth advantage here. I also just like his overall pace on the feet more. I think he is just the busier fighter with better boxing. I do think he will have success on the inside with his jab. I generally think he is a more durable fighter than Tavares as well.
I also think Park is more likely to land takedowns here because of willingness. Tavares is a tough cat to grapple though, so I do think Tavares can neutralize most of the grappling of Park.
Tavares is still a very experienced striker though. He has fought everyone in this division and could have success on the outside with his low kicks, and keep the fight competitive. He still just doesn’t land enough offense for me to pick him though. So I am going to go with Park as the more consistent offensive striker and fighter in general.
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On DraftKings, I tend to stay away from Tavares fights because he is very defensively sound and produces little offense.
He’s also at the tail end of his career, and his durability is fading, so that presents some opportunities for his opponents like Rodrigues who was able to TKO Tavares late in his most recent matchup.
That’s the upside I see with Park. Maybe he can hurt Tavares at some point. But he’s not likely to land much volume throughout, and there’s a good chance his wrestling gets stuffed completely.
Park is priced at 8.5k and is +225 to win ITD, which is mediocre. Like, it’s a possibility, but not one I’m excited to bet on. And there are plenty of paths for Park to fail.
I don’t mind Park as a mix-in due to some narrative based upside, and he’ll arguably fall into the contrarian category, but this is a pretty poor environment to score and I’ll be generally light on Park this week.
Tavares at 7.7k likely won’t be owned at all, as he hasn’t cleared 80 fantasy points in the last six years..
He doesn’t really wrestle, nor does he land much volume, so in decision wins, Tavares will put up 58, 76 and 56 which are his last three results. It’s obviously not enough.
And he’s +675 to win ITD here which is extremely poor. I’m not saying it’s impossible for Tavares to win – in fact I could see the striking being quite competitive. I just don’t see a great chance for Tavares to reach a ceiling.
So I’m planning on being very light on Tavares this week, or fading him outright with a more limited portfolio. He should be very low owned though and again falls into the contrarian target bucket, but without a real clear path to a ceiling, I still don’t think it’s a great strategy to make any sizable investment here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Park by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia
Fight Odds: Dawson -446, Garcia +340
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Dawson 9.5k, Garcia 6.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Grant Dawson will get a perceived step down in competition this week as he takes on Rafa Garcia.
Dawson got back on track and won a dominant decision over Joseph Solecki last time out, landing three takedowns and controlling the fight for nearly 14 minutes.
Volume wrestling is obviously Dawson’s strength. He lands 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 12 takedowns per fight. He also has generally had cardio to keep up that high volume style so he can break opponents with his pace.
Dawson’s ground and pound is good. He landed plenty against Erosa, Santos, and Minner. He won’t just lay in guard and is always thinking about ways to score.
I also think Dawson is an underrated submission grappler. He is a BJJ black belt and has advanced position 35 times on 33 takedowns landed in the UFC. He also has a super powerful back mount. Just go watch his fight against Erosa and Trizano and you will see what I am talking about. He finished Trizano from that position and kept threatening Erosa with it. It is something I noticed with him early in his career and I do think he will continue to occasionally get finishes from that position. He also got the RNCs vs Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen.
I just like that Dawson uses body triangles as well too. He is very efficient at taking the back and putting in his body triangle. In his win vs Ismagulov, Dawson scored one takedown at the beginning of each round, popped in the body triangle, and held position for the remainder of each round. Every single round in that fight basically looked identical. It is also good that Dawson knows what to do in his fights to win. He has never really deviated from his path to victory of grappling in any UFC fight.
Dawson’s striking is definitely his weakness. He lands 2.98 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.11 in return. His metrics are actually decent but it is padded by his ground and pound. His striking is a means to an end more than anything. He wants to limit engagements just to land takedowns. Good strikers who can keep fights standing vs Grant will definitely school him.
Overall though, Dawson is just going to rack up a lot of wins in the UFC as he has been doing. He is a very good wrestler and submission grappler and never deviates from his path to victory. His game is consistent and reliable.
Dawson will be taking on Rafa Garcia. I consider Garcia a wrestle-boxer. He will strike a bit and look to land takedowns. Other than that, there isn’t a ton of depth to his game. I think his best asset is his toughness and that he tries very hard. He will compete hard for three rounds. He has also never been finished in his professional career. He is a tough guy.
Garcia is an okay tough boxer. However, I don’t consider him skillful and he kind of just relies on toughness. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.21 in return. He is an adequate boxer but nothing special either.
Garcia does at least willingly wrestle. He actually lands 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good. However, a lot of his takedowns have come against weak competition. I don’t think he is all that skilled as a wrestler. He is just tenacious and tough which isn’t a bad thing. However, more skilled grapplers should be fine against him.
Garcia defends takedowns at 79 percent which is good and he does work up decently well too. He hasn’t been held down too often either. However, he hasn’t fought many good wrestlers and grapplers either. However, I did see him give up his back against Drakkar Klose and go down to all fours in round one
I think that is a recipe for disaster against Dawson. Dawson will absolutely put in hooks and a body triangle if you give him that position. It makes me think Dawson should be fine here, get some dominant positions, and probably cruise.
There is still hope for Garcia in the sense that he does have some advantages in this fight. Garcia is probably tougher than Dawson and he also is the better striker. So if Garcia just happens to get back to his feet at all, he could turn this fight around.
I still just love the consistency of the wrestling and back taking of Dawson though. I can’t pick against that type of game that Dawson possesses especially when I saw Garcia go to all fours against Klose.
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On DraftKings, Dawson is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k and it’s a bit tricky considering his style and matchup.
Dawson is largely dependent on takedowns, back takes and RNCs. He has upside with that style on DK and has put up really big scores like 123 in the past. I guess I would more say that Dawson has a very strong floor in wins given that style. He’s been consistent.
Dawson has put up 107, 105, 101, 93, 89, 123, 103, 90 and 108 in his wins. It’s an average of 102 which is very strong.
The tough part is that Dawson is only +250 to win ITD here in a matchup that’s -220 to go the distance. As Tim noted, Garcia has never been finished in 19 pro fights.
But with that said, Dawson literally just scored 108 in a boring decision where he took the back in all three rounds. Granted, that was still a dominating performance with nearly 15 minutes of control time, but Dawson has also scored 107, 90 and 93 in other decisions.
I do think he’ll need to wrestle and earn control, and if he has Garcia’s back for several minutes, a RNC is still possible. So I don’t mind Dawson given his style as it should produce a strong score in a win.
It’s obviously not a guarantee to be optimal though. Tafa is sitting right there with first round KO upside, though Tafa is far more boom or bust. Gorimbo and Taira are also going to be strong considerations for most.
If I can afford Dawson, I’ll certainly consider him. He has a reasonable path to 100 points though I’m a bit concerned about his top-end ceiling and finishing chances. I still think he could find the RNC and put up a strong score so I’m willing to chase the upside a bit. But it’s totally fine if you cannot afford him or want to prioritize another cheaper option in this range.
Garcia at 6.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot given the state of the slate.
He’s the biggest dog at +340 and could very possibly be held down for many minutes. Yeah, he’s decent and has the ability to produce offense, but it’s tough to prioritize over most other dogs.
While you could sprinkle him in as a low-owned, leverage punt, I’m not in love with the upside at +550 ITD and I’d rather pay more for win equity elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dawson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Julia Polastri vs. Cory McKenna
Fight Odds: Polastri -122, McKenna +106
Odds to Finish: +290
DraftKings Salaries: Polastri 8.3k, McKenna 7.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here between Cory McKenna and Julia Polastri.
McKenna is okay, and she’s won three of her five fights in the UFC. I just don’t think she is very athletic and she isn’t very physical either. She also just doesn’t excel at anything.
She is still young at 25 years old so maybe she can develop, but I doubt she ever becomes a serious contender in the UFC though. She had a rough loss in her last matchup where she was submitted by Jaqueline Amorim in round one.
McKenna isn’t all that great as a striker. She lands 3.00 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.19 in return. She just kind of goes through the motions. I just don’t think McKenna hits hard enough to land effectively. I think her striking ceiling is just very limited because of that.
She has landed 47, 57, 60, 13, and 22 significant strikes in five UFC fights that have extended, which isn’t great.
I am probably most confident in McKenna as a grappler. She isn’t great as a wrestler but she is competent. She lands 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. I actually think her top control is okay. I generally like her submission stifling ability as well. I know she was just submitted by Amorim but Amorim is very dangerous as a submission grappler and McKenna has never been submitted in the rest of her career which spans 16 fights. So if she gets top control, she can stay safe and win minutes.
McKenna is okay as a defensive grappler. She defends takedowns at 71 percent. She can be controlled a bit though like she was against Kay Hansen just because she is lacking in physicality. She got body triangled in that fight, but generally has shown decent grappling resistance.
McKenna will be taking on Julia Polastri. Polastri is a Brazilian fighter who is 12-4 professionally. She made her UFC debut against Josefine Knutsson and lost a decision by generally losing the striking exchanges. Knutsson is a decent prospect though so I don’t fault her much for that loss.
Polastri has also had two Contender Series fights. She lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius a few years back by getting outgrappled which is a forgivable loss as well. She then won by submission against Patricia Alujas to book her ticket to the UFC.
Polastri is a bit of a freestyle fighter. On the feet, she is competent and okay. She can mix in some punches and kicks and is pretty tough too. She has a decent front kick to the body, and some mild power. She can fight at an occasional high pace which she did against Alujas and landed a ridiculous 58 significant strikes in the first round.
I still think Polastri is a bit basic on the feet though, and she can be hit plenty of herself. She is just kind of okay as a striker.
Polastri can grapple a bit too. She can land some occasional takedowns and she seems competent in top position. She has a few submission wins in her career and I consider her competent on the mat.
Defensively as a grappler, I have questions about Polastri. She was outgrappled by Jasmine but there is no shame in that. Other than that, I haven’t seen a ton of girls trying to take her down. In an LFA fight, she was taken down and held down for a bit which I did not like. So her defensive grappling is a bit of an unknown as I haven’t seen it much, other than against Jasmine which is not a comparable matchup to McKenna. My instincts tell me that Polastri’s defensive grappling is okay but not good.
As far as this matchup goes, this looks pretty competitive. On the feet, I think it is close but I think I favor Polastri on power and maybe some mild volume upside. I just think she hits a bit harder than McKenna which should help here.
However, I am really going back and forth on this matchup. I think if anyone gets takedowns, it will probably be McKenna. I think McKenna is a more proven wrestler than Polastri. I do think McKenna can get takedowns and it may lead to a clear round or two. Polastri may be able to get McKenna down too but I don’t trust that.
Overall, I think I just favor Polastri a bit as a striker and McKenna a bit as a grappler but neither girl is outmatched anywhere. I ended up picking Polastri as I do think the power on the feet could be the difference. However, I am really nervous that McKenna outwrestles her, so this is a toss up.
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On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this fight due to grappling potential but it seems extremely likely to go the distance and that should severely limit each fighter’s ceiling.
Polastri is favored and is priced at 8.3k, and she could have mild striking and physicality advantages. She could also land takedowns, and she’s coming off a fight where she landed three of them.
Polastri still would have only scored 83 points in a win there, and honestly I think she has less grappling equity in this matchup. So I’m quite worried she will prioritize a striking affair, or be held down on her back at times.
That just limits the upside of Polastri. She’s only +310 to win ITD as well which isn’t thrilling.
I don’t think I’ll be rostering Polastri much or at all with a limited portfolio, nor do I expect the public to want to roster her either. There’s some merit to Polastri having takedown success and scoring in the mid-80s, but she could very well lose and I’d rather just chase ceiling performances elsewhere.
McKenna at 7.9k could be viewed as the preferred target though her upside is extremely limited as well.
She’s just bottom-end athletic to where I’ve made several jokes in the past about her looking like a middle schooler. She is a fine fighter but lacks finishing ability and power, or explosion. She’s only +1000 to win ITD here which is obviously very poor.
McKenna has won a couple fights in the UFC with her grappling though and scored in the low 80s, which is probably the expectation again here.
You’re just hoping McKenna lands takedowns and Polastri can’t get back up. If that happens, McKenna could score 80-90, but it would still have to come with three rounds of grappling which may be unlikely.
I’m not trying to fully dismiss these fighters as there should be takedown attempts but a competitive grind that goes to a decision just isn’t going to be a primary target for me.
I’m open to the idea of mixing McKenna into some mid-range builds for salary relief but I expect to be generally light on both sides this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Polastri by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -215, Morono +181
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.9k, Morono 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two longtime middle-class welterweights in Daniel Rodriguez and Alex Morono.
Rodriguez is a striker and more specifically a boxer. Rodriguez lands a solid 7.42 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.52 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent.
I don’t mind Rodriguez. He keeps up a ridiculous pace and doesn’t seem to really slow down either. Although he is in chaotic fights, he definitely has some skills as a boxer and it isn’t all just cardio and output in his game. I think he will continue to stay competitive in striking fights in this division. I think he can strike with most guys.
Rodriguez also seems like a tough guy and has only been knocked out once in his career. I respect the durability of Rodriguez overall.
Rodriguez isn’t much of a grappler offensively. He lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. I actually do think he is okay and can take advantage of weak grapplers. However, I don’t expect wrestling to be a realistic path to victory for him against good fighters at welterweight.
Rodriguez is an okay defensive grappler but not a great one. He has actually lost his last three fights and two of them came against Gastelum and Magny where he was outwrestled. He is defending takedowns at 56 percent.
Rodriguez will be taking on Alex Morono. Morono has some holes in his game as he is not very athletic or physically strong. He also has weak defensive wrestling and only defends takedowns at 48 percent. He is a candidate to get stuck in bottom position for stretches as his get up game is not very strong.
Other than that though, Morono is honestly not a bad fighter. The best part of his game is probably his striking. He lands 4.96 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.34. Those are decent numbers. He also has good cardio and can keep up a steady pace.
Morono is a competent submission grappler, with a good guillotine, and holds a black belt in BJJ. He has never been submitted in his professional and amateur career which spans 37 fights.
Morono doesn’t really grapple offensively though. He lands 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes so his takedowns are basically non-existent.
Morono’s durability has cost him before. He was knocked out by Khaos Williams, Niko Price, and Santiago Ponzinibbio. He was also knocked down by Matthew Semelsberger. He has had plenty of fights so he isn’t getting knocked out all the time or anything, but his durability does scare me a bit.
I think these guys are going to strike as neither are strong offensive wrestlers. On the feet, I honestly think this is quite competitive. I think the numbers will be close.
However, I do favor Rodriguez mildly. I think he has a couple of small advantages. Rodriguez is probably the more durable fighter. I also just think Rodriguez has more consistent and effective offensive striking. I also just think Rodriguez is the more athletic fighter and we have seen Morono lose due to being the less athletic party before.
This is a competitive fight, but I will lean Rodriguez based on the reasons mentioned above.
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On DraftKings, Rodriguez is priced at 8.9k which is fairly expensive for what he usually produces.
He can strike in plenty of volume, but volume isn’t scored that well without extra-curriculars which Rodriguez rarely achieves.
In his last three decision wins, Rodriguez has scored 65, 88 and 85 DK points which is simply not enough at 8.9k. And his ITD line isn’t very strong here at +215, so it’s tough to be confident he’ll secure a KO.
I do think his striking volume gives him a decent floor, and upside as well if he can also pull off the KO. In other words, if Rodriguez does pull off the TKO, he can smash because we know the fight will take place at a high pace.
Morono has been knocked dead a few times so I’m not necessarily ruling out that outcome, but I think Rodriguez falls more into the contrarian category this week. He shouldn’t be popular coming off three consecutive losses, and his ceiling isn’t the easiest to achieve.
I don’t mind mixing him in for more mid-range builds, or for the purposes of being unique, but I wouldn’t consider Rodriguez a priority this week due to his striking-based style.
Morono at 7.3k has some merit as a fighter who could be in a competitive striking affair, but he doesn’t produce much extra-curriculars either.
I would not expect Morono to win ITD at +375, and he rarely wrestles, so you’re really just hoping for a close decision, which is possible.
Morono has scored 46, 85 and 76 in his last three decision wins which isn’t great, so it’s the same issue as Rodriguez. At least he’s cheap though.
It’s tough to be excited about Morono. There are definitely other fighters in this range with more upside, or more winnable or more binary matchups who I’d prefer to target. For that reason, I really don’t think I’ll prioritize or end up with too much exposure to Morono.
I consider him more of a low-end secondary target who could be viable for floor, or who could be viable if most other dogs in this range also lose.
The fight itself should be more fun in reality than for fantasy purposes, unless someone gets knocked out along the way.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Josh Fremd
Fight Odds: Alhassan -164, Fremd +142
Odds to Finish: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Alhassan 8.4k, Fremd 7.8k
Weight Class: 185
A random pairing thrown together but Abdul Razak Alhassan always makes fights entertaining, and I expect nothing less in his matchup against Josh Fremd on Saturday.
Alhassan is a devastating knockout artist – nothing more and nothing less.
He is 12-6 professionally at age 39, and all 12 of his wins have come by KO. In fact, 11 of those 12 wins have come in round one, with the lone exception being a KO in round two that only lasted an additional 28 seconds.
He should have earned his 13th pro win last time out against Cody Brundage, who dove in to take him down immediately and was stuffed, beaten up on the mat, and then proceeded to quit when the ref randomly jumped in to declare an illegal shot. That’s the second time that’s happened to Brundage in his last four fights. He’s a coward. Don’t get me started.
Anyways, Alhassan only lands 3.62 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.97 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate. He’s just ultra-aggressive early, usually, and he will throw bombs.
That’s a recipe for highlight reel wins, and also some ugly losses. Alhassan has been KOd early, and he’s been taken down and out grappled on a few different occasions.
I wouldn’t say he’s a disaster though, despite a poor 51 percent takedown defense rate. He’s had recent losses to Joe Pyfer and Joaquin Buckley, but Pyfer is a top prospect who is main eventing cards, and Buckley has been on absolute tear as well. His loss prior to those came against Jacob Malkoun who’s one of the toughest wrestlers to deal with in the division.
Alhassan does not have great takedown defense or grappling, but it’s not as bad as it may seem on paper. He even took Buckley down a few times and took him to a split decision, so I feel like he’s been improving over the years.
With that said, Alhassan is quite limited in his path to victory. His success will come with damage, and almost always very early. He’s now nearing 40 so I doubt his durability or technique will improve much. He’s a boom or bust guy who should put on fun fights, win or lose.
He’ll be taking on Josh Fremd, who’s coming off a loss to Andre Petroski where Petroski took him down and held him down for 13 minutes of the 15-minute fight.
I was happy to see that as I was backing Petroski as a dog, but I just don’t think Fremd is very good.
Fremd has a D3 collegiate wrestling background, but I don’t consider him a real threat at the UFC level. Fremd has only picked up two wins in his first six UFC bouts, and his competition has been largely mediocre.
Anthony Hernandez took him down eight times to a dominant control decision in his UFC debut, which fair enough, is a tough opponent to deal with. But then Tresean Gore took him down three times and submitted him in the second round, which is an extreme red flag as Gore is not a strong grappler in any regard.
Then Fremd earned a submission victory against Sedriques Dumas, a low-level talent with weak grappling. Then he edged out a decision against Jamie Pickett, despite Pickett taking him down multiple times. Roman Kopylov knocked him out in 2023, and most recently, he lost to Petroski.
Fremd just isn’t effective in any area of the game. He’s averaging 2.52 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.23. He lands 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and is defending takedowns at 30 percent.
There is a very strong chance that Fremd is not a part of the UFC roster by this time next year.
With that said, one would think it would make sense for Fremd to push a heavier wrestling attack in this matchup, given Alhassan’s strengths and weaknesses.
While Fremd could compete at points on the feet, it’s not an ideal matchup for him. Maybe he could randomly hurt Alhassan or tire him out, but you’d have to think Alhassan will be swinging way bigger shots and should have a moderate advantage in the damage department.
Fremd hasn’t been the easiest to hurt, but he’s just not very effective offensively or defensively.
His best chance on paper is to attack Alhassan on the mat, where he should be the better grappler. I do think he has a chance to land takedowns, but I’m not even confident in that regard.
Watching him shoot a couple of takedowns from a mile out on Kopylov was not pretty, and Kopylov just moved out of the way with ease and kicked him in the head. Still, the fact that he attempted five takedowns in that fight gives him a path to victory.
I’m never very confident in Alhassan because like.. what if he just doesn’t land a big shot? There’s too much variance in striking exchanges for me to be ultra confident.
I do think Alhassan can probably defend early, or scramble up when necessary. He got back up from Pyfer a couple of times who is way better and more physical than Fremd. Alhassan should have a real chance to force stand-up exchanges and hurt Fremd early.
I just fear he might not land the kill shot, and the fight could extend, and get ugly, and maybe Fremd can find his way back in with a takedown or two.
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On DraftKings, Alhassan is a very easy upside target at 8.4k and I expect him to be mildly popular due to that upside and salary relief.
He’s an extreme risk, yes, but he’s shown finishing upside in quite literally every one of his professional wins, and as a favorite, you have to consider the potential for a KO victory. Alhassan is also -130 to win ITD here which is a fantastic line for the price.
Without the early KO, Alhassan will bust, and I do actually think there’s a reasonable chance that the fight extends a bit. So I’m not saying I will be rostering him in all of my lineups. But he quite clearly has a path to an early KO and 100 points, and for 8.4k, it makes sense to have moderate exposure.
Alhassan will be chalky to a degree but I’m fine to be near the field percentage or even a bit overweight this week.
Fremd at 7.8k probably makes sense the most as a leverage target.
In theory, he also has a path to victory in an extended fight, and a path to victory on the mat. Those things are nice in theory but in reality he just hasn’t shown the ability to produce offense.
My best guess is that this fight has a better chance to extend and bust, then Fremd has a chance to absolutely smash due to his wrestling equity. At the same time, the public won’t be too excited by Fremd and he will provide leverage, so some consideration is fair.
Fremd is +400 to win ITD which is poor and ultimately there are several other dogs I like more. But on paper, he’s a viable leverage target with some theoretical grappling upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alhassan by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
Fight Odds: Njokuani -167, Gooden +144
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Njokuani 8.6k, Gooden 7.6k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential barn burner here between striker Chidi Njokuani and brawler Jared Gooden.
Njokuani is mostly a striker. He lands 4.09 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.94 in return. He is pretty skilled at range with his kicks. He has strong leg kicks and accurate front kicks to the body.
He is also moderately powerful and has won by knockout several times in his career. You obviously saw that in his first two UFC fights where he put down Barriault and Todorovic in round one. I like Njokuani’s clinch game as well. He can manipulate his opponents in the clinch and land knees and score with other Thai based strikes.
Njokuani is a BJJ black belt but has lost on the mat several times. He lost to very solid grapplers though like John Salter, etc. I actually think his grappling is fairly decent when he is fresh and he isn’t a huge liability on the mat. He doesn’t wrestle offensively though and has never landed a takedown in his UFC career.
I do worry about Njokuani when he is pressured. He isn’t as effective going backward and I do think his cardio is a bit suspect later in fights if a pace is pushed on him. He has lost three of his last four fights and two of them came by knockout to Gregory Rodrigues and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Those losses just concerned me as Njokuani just wilted to pressure, and I question his cardio a bit.
Furthermore, Njokuani lost a striking based decision to Albert Duraev which was a terrible look. He was outlanded 45-40 in significant strikes and his volume looked terrible. I just think Njokuani may be afraid to gas so he sometimes he conserves himself and doesn’t do enough.
Njokuani will be taking on Jared Gooden. Gooden is a friend of the show and he’s done podcasts with Brett before, so I always cheer for him when he fights. He is a tough guy who tries very hard and has some power, so he can definitely sneak out some wins in the UFC. He had a nice come from behind win in his last fight against Wellington Turman.
However, I need to be objective when I analyze any fighter and I just don’t think Gooden has enough skills to compete against the above-average fighters in this division.
I mostly consider Gooden a striker. He lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.68 in return. So it is good that he is landing a lot of strikes and trying very hard, but he just gets hit A LOT which is a dangerous game to play.
I will say though, Gooden is EXTREMELY tough so perhaps he can take more strikes than most of his opponents, so fighting wars can actually work out for him. In fact, Gooden has only been finished two times in 33 pro fights and he has fought some decent competition on the regionals and a couple of decent fighters in the UFC. So that is a pretty good durability track record.
In summary, Gooden likes to strike but he is not very technical. He tries hard and can land but he is also getting hit A LOT. Luckily, he is tough enough to give himself opportunities to land something big or compete to a degree in the striking rounds.
However, I don’t really trust Gooden to comfortably win rounds at this level unless he lands something big. He also just doesn’t strike me as a guy who will land takedowns and control UFC level opponents either. He can also be outwrestled himself despite having a background in BJJ as well. So yeah, I generally think he is limited to using his toughness to land something big to win by knockout, or win a round via a knockdown. He won’t put emphasis on rounds really in any other way.
As far as this matchup, this is actually pretty interesting. These guys will probably strike as both guys don’t attempt many takedowns.
I definitely think Njokuani is more skilled than Gooden, and I am going to pick him for that reason. I just do not like the defense of Gooden and Njokuani may hurt him.
However, I really think Gooden may be tougher than Njokuani with better cardio. I could easily see Njokuani getting off to an early lead, Gooden staying tough, continuing to push a pace and then Gooden coming from behind and hurting Njokuani. This is just a really high variance fight so nothing would surprise me.
So I do think Gooden could win this and if I was in his corner, I would tell him to go after Njokuani. If Gooden sits at range, he will probably lose clean.
I still like picking more skilled strikers in matchups like this so I will go with Njokuani to win. However, I really think Gooden has the toughness, cardio, and aggression to make this interesting down the stretch.
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On DraftKings, I’m fairly interested in this matchup and I’m hopeful Gooden will push a pace.
I think it’s pretty clearly the path to beating Njokuani, as Tim outlined. The problem is that it will put him in danger, and he may get hit and hurt.
Even in his most recent outing against Turman, Gooden was hurt early in the fight. There’s a reasonable chance that Njokuani can land something big and knock Gooden out early.
But Njokuani has proven to be pretty breakable, so I think Gooden has a legit chance to win if he pushes a pace. If he gets scared off due to the threat of Njokuani, then Njokuani may just cruise to a decision win.
If Gooden forces a pace though, we’ve seen Njokuani get hurt, get tired, and get outgrappled. So Gooden may have multiple paths, depending on exactly what his game plan is.
Njokuani is priced at 8.6k and he’s an extreme boom or bust target, but one I have interest in. Two of his three UFC wins came in round one, and I think that’s the best path for him to win, with early damage.
He’s +140 to win ITD here which is good, but not spectacular. He also has lost four of his last five fights, with his most recent win only scoring 64 points in a decision, which I think will keep the public away from him.
So there’s a pretty decent chance Njokuani is actually overlooked here, and if that’s the case, I would not mind being overweight to him. Again, he’s largely dependent on an early KO so there’s significant risk in targeting Njokuani, but he at least does have upside and a somewhat decent matchup to reach it.
Gooden is a solid underdog target at 7.6k and he’s someone I’d like to be invested in as well.
He actually has a pretty strong ITD line himself at +210 in a fight that’s -200 to end ITD, and clearly there is some narrative here.
Njokuani has been TKOd early in two of his three UFC losses and as long as Gooden pushes forward, he will have opportunities. I think it’s still somewhat risky as he won’t land tons of volume and he may not grapple with success, but there’s at least a path to victory and hurting Njokuani along the way.
I’m far from confident Gooden wins, but at 7.6k, he’s a strong secondary target in my mind and I’d like to be invested near the field percentage or perhaps a bit more, depending on how you feel about the other dogs in this tier.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gooden by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
CJ Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov
Fight Odds: Temirov -367, Vergara +289
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Temirov 9.1k, Vergara 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
CJ Vergara’s a Contender Series alum who earned a contract back in 2021. He’s since profiled as a 50/50, journeyman type of talent – he’s 3-3 in the UFC and 12-5-1 as a pro. Ramazan Temirov is an Uzbeki national who’s spent the bulk of his career fighting on the Asian scene. He more recently caught the attention of the UFC after picking up two straight wins in the Japanese promotion, RIZIN – he’s 17-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Vergara falls more into your blue-collar type of striker. He’s not a great athlete or the fastest guy but he will look to play a pressure-based game and keep a consistent work rate, landing 5.2 SLpM at 57%.
He’s shown power components as well with seven of his 12 pro wins coming via strikes in a division like flyweight which is a good historic – but he’s more of an attritional guy in terms of his finishes in comparison to being a “one hitter quitter” type.
However, his defense is kind of an afterthought, eating 4.6 SApM at 52% and he can struggle with pressure/faster/more dynamic strikers.
Against Silva, he got hit clean pretty much anytime Silva decided to go forward and throw on him – he was dropped twice in the first round. To his credit, he weathered the storm and was able to take over the fight in the latter rounds against a gassed Silva and find a finish of his own.
On DWCS, he was able to blitz Souza, do some good work from the clinch and finish with a knee to the body in under two minutes. Against Osbourne, he struggled with the length and speed of Osbourne early, but the tide started to shift halfway through the fight and Vergara started to find a home for his strikes when Osbourne slowed.
Somewhat of a similar story against Rodrigues where he got out landed at distance 70-45 – Vergara landed a lot of big shots in there though and held his own. He had to survive one hell of an early surge from Lacerda who dropped him twice but hung tough, Lacerda gassed, and Vergara finished him off in the 2nd.
Most recently, he went on to win the latter two rounds against Salvador after having a slower start.
Overall, Vergara is a gritty striker who can break and/or outlast guys with pace and pressure but despite his toughness, he’s an available fighter that’s there to be hit.
I’m unsure of Temirov’s official background but he definitely profiles as a striker.
He operates in a more traditional Euro-Asian coast type of style where he’ll be light on his feet, use a lot of lateral movement, not be particularly high volume and burst in and out of the pocket with strikes.
The bulk of his actions are of higher explosivity and he’s a guy who packs a serious punch at 125 lbs with 10 of 17 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
The guy just uncorks bombs that many opponents haven’t been able to deal with.
While it’s a style that can be very effective because he’s also not absorbing strikes at much of a rate, if those finishes don’t come, it can lead to tighter margins on the feet.
However, in his two decision wins that I saw, he more or less just chipped at his opponents and was one step ahead.
We did see him get briefly hurt in his last RIZIN fight though so he’s not invincible, but I’d project him to probably be pretty durable as most guys are out of that region.
Overall, his style isn’t one I’m the biggest fan of analytically, but opponents don’t want to take flush shots from him and will probably have a difficult time cutting him off with consistency.
How it plays out: The striking is somewhat interesting in the sense that Vergara has never officially been KO’d as a pro and tends to operate at higher work rates. At the same time, his defense is poor and we’ve seen him hurt on numerous occasions – I’m highly skeptical of him being able to tough man his way though shots from Temirov in this spot. But if he can and find his way inside, the margins in this fight could tighten a healthy amount.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Being a base striker, Vergara doesn’t really pursue TDs and hasn’t statistically landed a TD so far in the UFC. He has found his way to top positions on multiple occasions but it’s from hurting guys, reversing positions off opponent failed TDAs or in scrambles.
For example, he rode out the 3rd round on top of a tired Osbourne, took the 2nd from Rodrigues after hurting him with a body kick, and pounded out a tired Lacerda after a failed calf slicer.
His last regional loss was concerning back in 2018 though as he got taken down quickly, passed and choked out.
He definitely put up resistance against Taira and was able to reverse position once, but was at too distinct of a grappling disadvantage – Taira’s a stud on the ground though for context.
It’s just hard to ignore the fact that Vergara has gotten his back taken in five of his six UFC fights.
He was able to survive the grappling of Almabayev last time out though, which I thought was impressive despite by and large getting dominated there.
Overall, he’s not really a pure wrestling threat but can be strong from top in certain instances, has okay TDD but his overall grappling is shaky especially against better grapplers of a UFC level.
Contrary to the ‘OV’ at the end of his name, there’s very little to say with Temirov on the floor.
I’ve only seen him shoot one TD which was unsuccessful and only one of his 17 pro wins come via submission.
He’s finished a few guys with ground strikes but that’s been a product of him hurting them on the feet and then following up with shots.
He has had some struggles in the past defensively though, as his last pro loss came via armbar to Zhumagaliev back in 2019.
It was a bout he struggled with his TDD in, but he was able to avenge that loss a few years later. He was still taken down a handful of times in the fight but his TDD and get up game looked improved.
His sprawls also looked better in some more recent fights as well, but he also hasn’t been proactively shot on a ton at the same time.
Overall, I’d like a bigger sample of Temirov on the floor before making any super definitive claims, but he’s shown little offensive upside historically and some ground struggles.
How it plays out: The ground’s difficult to handicap here because both guys just don’t have much interest in wrestling and have been beaten with floor components before. If I had to project upside, I’d probably give more to Vergara just in the sense that I’ve seen him win rounds from top positions despite them not coming from conventional TDs – of the two, he’s probably the more likely party to shoot in general as well but we should see a striking affair here.
Kind of a weird matchup. I see theoretical upside to Vergara based on potential survival or pushing Temirov more standing than his past opponents. But I think Vergara’s pretty live to suffer his first KO loss here and I feel he’ll have a difficult time tracking Temirov down to get off on his historic volume. So Temirov is the pick, but I can’t say I’m super enthusiastic about him as a prospect – granted flyweight is a shallow division.
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On DraftKings, Temirov will probably fall into the pivot category in the stacked 9k range, where he’s priced at 9.1k.
Simply being put between Taira and Gorimbo, with Tafa and Dawson above him, I really don’t see how the public will find their way to Temirov often.
Especially as he doesn’t carry elite grappling upside on paper, and only holds a +195 ITD line. He’s likely going to need an early KO to reach the optimal lineup.
With that said, I don’t think there’s a ton of safety in this range. The best plays – Taira, Gorimbo, whoever, aren’t locks. They have a superior style to score but I wouldn’t be shocked if one or more underperformed.
We’ll still need the early KO from Temirov which feels unlikely, but I think he’s totally fine as a pivot. I wouldn’t be prioritizing Temirov but if you need a spot to be unique, mixing him into this range makes some sense in large fields.
Vergara at 7.1k is honestly viable but you’re going to need to put a firm cap on exposure to him.
There are others in this range I like more, and I don’t consider Vergara a real talent. It’s just that Temirov is making his UFC debut and without a large data sample a lot of these prospects get overvalued. Vergara has also had multiple come back wins and with Temirov’s early explosive style, I’m not 100 percent sure he will survive the latter rounds.
I still won’t roster much Vergara, but I would mix him in at 7.1k with a larger portfolio. He’ll at least fight aggressively and get some striking exchanges, and he shouldn’t be too popular. It’s not the best play and is more based on pricing, but I could talk myself into a small percentage based on some of these unknowns.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Temirov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
Fight Odds: Pearce -181, Sabatini +155
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Pearce 8.2k, Sabatini 8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am very excited for this matchup here between Jonathan Pearce and Pat Sabatini. Both guys are good grapplers and I do think they both pose problems for one another.
I like Jonathan Pearce’s game. He has good cardio and can push a heavy wrestling pace. He also is a solid wrestler and generally goes to his wrestling so he optimizes his win condition.
Pearce lands 5.32 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.43 in return. He defends strikes at 54 percent. A lot of Pearce’s strikes landed are on the mat. So I do think his metrics are skewed. I actually don’t think he is very skilled as a striker and he is quite hittable. His striking success will more so come by pushing a pace and tiring out his opponents. I do think he is decent as a striker with his pace but just not from a technical perspective.
Pearce is best as a grappler. He lands a whopping 5.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. He just pushes a hard pace and does a good job using his length to manipulate his opponents on the mat. He has a decent top game and can continue to outgrapple UFC competition with volume wrestling and tenacity. I also like his defensive wrestling, and he can turn defensive wrestling and sprawls into top position of his own. He only defends takedowns at 58 percent but I think he is a bit better defensive grappler than that percentage indicates.
Pearce is also just really big. He stands at 6’0” and uses his length and physicality quite well in grappling situations. I also just like his ground and pound. He is relentless.
Pearce will be taking on Pat Sabatini. Sabatini is almost exclusively a wrestler / grappler. His striking is a means to an end. Sabatini lands 2.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.54 in return. He looks to simply limit engagements on the feet and get the fight to the mat. He got badly hurt by Emmers on the feet before getting a pretty random leg lock submission when Emmers inexplicably rolled for the legs. He was also knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopes. I don’t trust Sabatini on the feet at all and really question his durability.
As a grappler, I like Sabatini’s game. He lands 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him a decent wrestler. On top, he is a BJJ black belt and will work a passing game to set up his submissions. He also plays a body triangle game on top which I love as it can give him a full round of control. I consider him a moderately dangerous submission grappler. He also has a leg lock game when he is on bottom and he uses it for submissions or sweeps. I do think he can be taken down himself though and he defends takedowns at 50 percent.
Look, I like Sabatini’s game as grapplers can have a lot of success in the UFC. I think he will continue to murk weak grapplers. However, if he is forced to strike, he is going to get crushed.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Pearce because he has more paths to victory. I mean if Sabatini doesn’t find a random finish / submission, I don’t really see what Sabatini can do to Pearce. I doubt Sabatini can strike with Pearce. If these guys strike, I honestly think Pearce will beat Sabatini up. Pearce is so much more durable too.
Furthermore, I doubt Sabatini can take and hold Pearce down. I do think Sabatini can land some takedowns, but I really doubt he holds Pearce down. On the other hand, I really think Pearce can take Sabatini down and win the positional wrestling game.
Look Pearce was just submitted against Joanderson Brito and Sabatini is a dangerous submission grappler. So If Sabatini does happen to land a random submission in transition or with a leg lock, it wouldn’t shock me. However, I really think Sabatini will struggle outside of a random potential submission. So I am going to go with Pearce here as I think he is the better striker, a bigger guy, and just has more round winning upside.
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On DraftKings, this is probably just a spot to close your eyes and shove it in considering the styles of both fighters, but I find it difficult to be sure exactly how this fight will play out.
Pearce is one of the better pace grapplers in the sport right now and his upside has been proven on DK with results of 104, 145, 96, 123 and 134 in his wins. Now, he’s priced down to 8.2k but he’s been bet up this week to a near -190 favorite on some books.
Because of that, Pearce looks like a phenomenal play for the price and there’s a good chance he’s very popular publicly.
I think my primary issue is that Pearce thrives on pace and not on technique. In his most recent matchup against Onama, Pearce had the back like four different times and kept getting reversed. Onama was credited with five reversals which is nuts.
Prior to that, Pearce was taking over the fight with Brito and dove himself into a guillotine choke. I just don’t fully trust him technically.
Now he’s fighting Sabatini who really only excels as a sub grappler. Yeah, Pearce is bigger and pressure based, and he should be able to have some success. But I think Sabatini is the better outright submission grappler so I’m partially fearful that Pearce won’t be able to control Sabatini or submit him, and partially fearful that Sabatini could jump on a choke or control Pearce.
Or worse, maybe Pearce decides he wants to strike here given the matchup, which would kill off a lot of his upside.
I can’t recommend a fade just on fear alone though. In reality, Pearce is going to project extremely well given his style and price, and he feels like a very easy upside target in the mid-range. I am definitely nervous that things won’t go according to plan and that we’ll see a mess, but ultimately if Pearce wins, his chances of exceeding value should be pretty decent.
He’s only +225 to win ITD but with multi-takedown upside and even some KD equity, I like Pearce a lot for 8.2k and will probably be pretty heavily invested.
Sabatini at 8k feels like a strong leverage target. I’m assuming he’ll be much less popular as he’s now overpriced at +155 to win, coming off another ugly KO loss.
Sabatini isn’t super physical and his durability is weak as well, but his style will score strongly in a win and we’ve targeted him in the past. He’s had DK results of 115, 106, 105, 90 and 83 in his wins.
Again, Pearce is a lot bigger but Pearce has been taken down by six of his last eight opponents, and as mentioned, he just fell off the top five times against Onama. That lack of technique will give Sabatini opportunities to wrestle himself, reverse position, or threaten in a scramble and I do think he could pull off a submission.
Sabatini is only +375 to win ITD so it’s hard to get too excited, but that’s why I’m viewing him as more of a leverage target. If he wins, it will be grappling based to a degree and he should kill off a nice chunk of the field on Pearce.
He also is a quality grappler and should get grappling exchanges, so the path to victory is there.
This should be a fun matchup if you like grappling and I’m pretty hopeful the winner will exceed value at their respective mid-range price tag.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
Fight Odds: Gorimbo -383, Price +300
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Gorimbo 9.2k, Price 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Niko Price will be rounding out his 9th year on the active roster to where he’s been a very hit or miss fighter through his UFC tenure – he’s 8-7 in the promotion and 16-7 as a pro. Themba Gorimbo bypassed the Contender Series back in 2023 where he had a rocky debut. But since, he’s rattled off three straight wins – he’s 3-1 in the promotion and 13-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Price started out as a kickboxer but quickly made the transition to MMA back in 2008. He’s never fancied as the most technical guy in the world and has served as more of a brawler through the large bulk of his career.
He’s also a guy who falls into the category of wanting to entertain, to where he’s not always going to fight with optimal gameplans. As a result, he’s had mixed results on paper and also within his general striking approach.
I’ve seen him start very fast in certain occasions, be more mid-tempo in others or start outright slow and look to put on comebacks.
Despite his last two wins coming via decision, his best attribute is probably his power with 10 of his 16 pro wins coming via KO/TKO. Four of his eight wins have been earned via KO/TKO in the UFC and he has hurt fighters in other fights where he hasn’t finished with strikes.
He’s also scored KOs in unorthodox ways like hammer fists from the bottom and upkicks, so he’s been dangerous in all positions.
But macro stat wise, he’s been a higher volume striker landing 5.6 SLpM (significant strikes) at 43% and 6.4 DLpM (distance strikes) at 39% — both of which are well above the divisional average.
But given his often-reckless style, it’s left him defensively susceptible, eating 5.7 SApM at 49% and 6.8 DApM at 51%, which give him negative differentials in both categories.
He’s also been knocked down five times in the UFC and KO’d in five of his UFC losses. Probably the most alarming one coming against the ghost of Robbie Lawler a few fights back in his retirement fight.
Overall, despite Price coming off a win last time out, he’s evidently on the decline at 35 but in his defense, the guys who have out struck or KO’d him have all been of respectable or generally good talent levels.
Gorimbo is one of those skinny/lankier 170ers, standing 6’1 tall with a 77” reach.
We don’t have vast amounts of tape for him and not a ton of time at distance – particularly in recent years so there is some more conjecture here. In what I’ve seen, he does well at range in terms of using his length but isn’t a high-volume guy.
At the same time, he doesn’t always look to fight exclusively at range and will crash the pocket. When doing so, his chin is straight up in the air with his head right on the center line. As a result, I’ve seen him brutally KO’d and significantly hurt on another occasion inside of the pocket.
These are fights from over four years ago though so take that for what you will.
Despite slinging some leather at times, he hasn’t been a perennial KO artist but has dropped two of his last three opponents in Sato and Rodriguez.
Overall, I still have large questions on what his striking capabilities are in extended exchanges.
How it plays out: Despite Price being potentially washed, the striking’s interesting to me here primarily for what I noted in Gorimbo’s part of the breakdown. He’s just not a proven commodity at distance generally, but specifically in the UFC as only 11% of his fight time has been spent there. It does appear his power is translating better and Price’s chin is of concern at this point. But I’m also of the opinion that Gorimbo has a KO loss coming in his near future as he does leave openings and hasn’t had an iron clad chin in the past either. What’s additionally somewhat interesting about Price is that he’s landed over 100 strikes in four different UFC fights. I just don’t know how Gorimbo fairs in a higher volume striking fight or in a general war which is what Price traditionally tends to force.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Price doesn’t come from a conventional wrestling background to my knowledge but does rep a brown belt in BJJ.
The ground’s been a bit all over the board for him in his career and his numbers suggest that as well. He lands 1.1 TDs per 15 minutes at 32% and concedes 1.1 TDs per 15 minutes at 62%. His control ratios are only slightly positive but that’s probably due to added clinching.
It was really his last two wins which had positive wrestling attributes against Oliveria and Morono, that helped him secure those wins but in a vacuum, it hasn’t really been his MO. Oliveria also just plays guard and Morono pulled a bunch of guillotines and gassed out.
He has been tough to submit though, only conceding one loss via the method to Vicente Luque back in 2017. However, he’s given up bad positions in numerous fights.
Overall, the ground’s been more of a positive for Price in recent years but in totality, I’d consider it as more of a weakness for him to give up rounds.
Given the frame of Gorimbo, going into tape, I didn’t think I’d see as much ground time in his fights but the bulk of what I have seen has been on the ground for or against.
Offensively, he will look to wrestle, and he was able to have extensive success in his last regional outing, controlling his opponent for nearly the entire 15 minutes.
However, I don’t really like his entries as they aren’t set up by strikes and he tends to shoot from pretty far out.
He opened up with a bit of ground and pound but by and large was pretty lay and pray to win on the cards.
Eight of his 13 pro wins do come on the ground via finish though, including six submissions, one via elbows and another with added GNP after dropping Rodriguez. But the bulk of them came in the early part of his career where I wasn’t able to view many of them. The only submission I saw was a highlight video where he was taken down and secured a triangle from the bottom.
On the other one he was able to reverse position to get on top and reign down. He has grinded out Sato and Brahimaj more recently in the UFC.
Defensively, it hasn’t been great.
He’s been submitted twice and held down for the full 15-minute duration in his last loss in UAE Warriors.
He was able to create space at a few points but couldn’t threaten anything and never stood up. I also saw him get held against the fence for the entire 1st round in his 2nd to last loss against Mazany.
Against Fletcher, both guys had success, but Fletcher was able to mount him the 1st and he stuck his neck into a guillotine in the 2nd.
He ultimately got the better of the ground against Sato, landing three TDs and racking up 11 minutes of control although he conceded some ground time as well and lost positions a few times.
Similar to the striking, I have questions with him on the ground because his performances have been all over the board.
How it plays out: This is where I’d probably give a more markable advantage to Gorimbo. I still don’t think he’s anything special as a wrestler but he’s been persistent with it to where Price will probably face more TDAs in this fight than he’s seen in many years barring no early finish. I think that will also aid in sapping the gas tank of an aging Price. However, I’m not very bullish on him submitting Price unless it’s a sequence coming from damage. In theory, Price could realize some success as well as Gorimbo has lost position or conceded some cage minutes in multiple outings. But I would give a decent chunk of the ground equity to Gorimbo.
This seems a logical progression type of booking from the UFC for Gorimbo in getting a more experienced vet in Price that’s declining. However, I’m really not sold on Gorimbo as a talent as his strength of schedule has been soft. There’s disconcerting or somewhat unknown aspects about his game as well. He should be able to get past Price more often than not, but I’m giving Price a bit more of a shot than some others are this week.
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On DraftKings, this is another fight that’s strongly in consideration and I expect the public will be primarily interested in Gorimbo.
Gorimbo is priced at 9.2k and is coming off wins of 109, 130 and 114, which is outstanding. This isn’t the easiest matchup in the world, but Price can be taken down, he can get tired and he can get hurt.
Plus, Gorimbo is a big favorite and he’s priced more cheaply than some other strong targets. The combination of all make me think Gorimbo is going to be a pretty popular option this week, though the strength of the range will cap his ownership somewhat.
I don’t mind him. What I really like is that he’s aggressively pursued a grappling style. He’s also earned a couple of knockdowns. He also tries extremely hard and has decent cardio. If he wins, there is upside in his style and that’s showcased within his box scores.
At 9.2k, you could consider Gorimbo a priority. I’d like to have exposure to him. I also don’t think he’s a stand out personally because this is a huge step up in competition on paper, and Gorimbo hasn’t exactly proven himself in some areas of the game. Regionally he’s had issues and he even lost in his debut to a fighter worse than Price.
So I consider this more of an upside target, than a safe one. I’m still willing to target Gorimbo but I wouldn’t think it’s wrong to prioritize multiple other targets in this range ahead of him.
I actually like Price a bit at 7k and he’s one of my favorite cheaper options on the slate.
He has issues, but he’s very experienced, and he has been in some absolute wars. He also has some crazy finishes from awkward positions. He’s a classic upside fighter as well.
He probably will lose, but I think he has knockout and submission equity, and he also strikes at a higher pace than Gorimbo. So he has outs. Especially considering Gorimbo should be very popular, I like the leverage Price will carry against him.
Price is only +450 to win ITD and doesn’t need to be an outright priority but I think he’s a strong option in this range, with upside and leverage, and I wouldn’t mind being overweight personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gorimbo by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Junior Tafa vs. Sean Sharaf
Fight Odds: Tafa -300, Sharaf +285
Odds to Finish: Under 1.5 RDs -305
DraftKings Salaries: Tafa 9.4k, Sharaf NA (projected 7.1k)
Weight Class: HW
Welcome to the comedy hour of the program as Junior Tafa will take on Sean Sharaf on just a few day’s notice.
Sharaf is only 4-0 professionally at age 31, and he’s primarily getting the call because he trains with Xtreme Couture in Vegas where the fights are being held. All four of his wins have come by KO, and all four have come in round one.
There isn’t even footage of those fights that I can find. There is the full fight of his nine-second victory, and some Instagram highlights, but otherwise we’re pretty blind.
From some basic digging it says Sharaf was a US Marine, and there’s footage of him sparring Luke Rockhold as well. I do think it’s a pretty decent camp he comes from and at one point, Sharaf looked to be in incredible shape.
As far as his fighting skills, I’m going to guess he’s primarily a boxer. He looks to use his hands and honestly in those nine seconds of footage I have, I thought he looked decent. He looked like he could be a threat with his hands.
It’s just that we’re missing any wrestling data, cardio data, durability or adversity. Depth. We’re missing all of it with such a small sample. It’s somewhat fair to assume he’ll be primarily dependent on early KOs but it’s tough to know exactly how good he is or how good he can be against a certain type of opponent.
Junior Tafa comes from a Glory kickboxing background though he’s only 5-3 professionally in MMA, and 1-3 in the UFC.
His lone win came in 2023 where he knocked out Parker Porter in the first round. All five of his pro wins have come by KO and that’s the primary method I would expect moving forward.
Largely, it’s the grappling that’s going to be an issue for Tafa, as Usman, de Lima and Walker all were able to take him down and control him. Tafa tapped out to a leg lock in the first round against Walker last time out.
I suppose his grappling issues have been overplayed to a degree though because de Lima battered him with leg kicks which led to the stoppage there, and Tafa was hurting Usman badly on the feet in the limited exchanges he got in that matchup.
It’s just that Usman was able to hold him against the cage for like 12 minutes so Tafa really isn’t capable of separating in the clinch or on the mat, nor will it be a path to victory offensively.
In that sense, Tafa is simply a limited fighter. He’s a decent technical striker with power, but he’s not going to dominate rounds, and he’ll be largely dependent on early KOs to get his hand raised.
My expectation is that both fighters want to strike here although it’s possible either could take the other down lol.
My base guess is that Tafa will be more experienced, more technical, faster and more dangerous at range. I would also guess Tafa is the more durable party, and likely has the superior cardio of the two. Simply seeing him fight and go the distance in the UFC is a huge benefit.
Sharaf looks like he has power though, and if they’re simply going to box in the pocket, this fight could be close and either man could hurt the other. For comparison’s sake, Barnett looks like he has no business being a professional fighter while Sharaf at least looks like he takes his (part-time) job seriously.
My assumption would still be that Sharaf needs to get Tafa out of there early. The longer the fight goes, the less faith I’d have in his cardio or ability to produce damage on short notice. Tafa can probably get him out of there if the fight extends and Sharaf is tired at all.
But I wouldn’t rule out some fun, exciting exchanges early and given the variance and low-level skills of Tafa generally, perhaps Sharaf has a real hail-mary shot.
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On DraftKings, Tafa is going to rate out extremely well for his early KO chances, and he’s definitely viable despite a heavy 9.4k price tag.
The issue, per usual, is that strikers are much more boom or bust than grapplers and also have worse top-end ceilings. Tafa’s only KO in the UFC scored 104 points, which is fine, but not a guarantee to be optimal with so many strong scorers surrounding him.
But there’s a degree of safety to targeting a -300 fighter in a matchup that’s -305 to go Under 1.5 rounds. If Tafa wins, which he should, it’s probably by early KO and he probably scores 100 or a bit more.
The bust concern is still a big one for me as a RD 2 KO probably kills him. It feels like a risk to target him heavily when most other grapplers in this range have multiple paths to a big score, which includes an extended fight.
I also don’t love Tafa as a talent so I’m not exactly excited to tie my week into him winning by RD 1 KO.
Ultimately, Tafa is going to rate out very well and could be prioritized in tournaments. I lean toward having the bulk of my exposure tied into grapplers but I also have some concerns about them, so mixing and matching makes sense. At his price tag I just won’t force it.
Sharaf isn’t priced in yet but it’s worth noting he has a better line to win than the past opponent, though he’ll still be priced around 7.1k or lower. He’s just a boom or bust target.
ITD odds aren’t out yet but with the fight so heavily juiced to Under 1.5 rounds, Sharaf may have a fine ITD line for his price. It still feels unreasonable to project a win for him at a high rate.
With a limited portfolio it would be totally fine to cross him out of your player pool, and focus on others. With a more medium sized or large portfolio, it doesn’t take a lot to sprinkle him in. He has RD 1 KO equity in his style and at a cheap price tag, he’s an OK large field tournament punt.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tafa by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Dan Argueta vs. Cody Haddon
Fight Odds: Haddon -172, Argueta +148
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Haddon 8.7k, Argueta 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
Australian prospect Cody Haddon just competed on the Contender Series in August, and after a quick stoppage victory, he’ll make his UFC debut on Saturday against a tough wrestler in Dan Argueta.
Haddon is 7-1 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned five wins by TKO and two by submission. He comes from the same Australian regional scene that produced fellow prospect Steve Erceg, and in fact the two shared the cage together in 2021, where Erceg won a competitive decision which is now Haddon’s only pro defeat.
Haddon then rattled off a few regional wins before taking that fight on DWCS, where he submitted his opponent after hurting him in just a few minutes.
Haddon looks like a pretty decent prospect to me, though I will always have ceiling concerns.
He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu but is probably best with his hands, and that’s where I’d expect him to be the most impactful at the UFC level. He likes to come forward and box, and he moves fairly well. I don’t know if he has elite KO power but he looks like a quality striker with some danger in his game.
He can also wrestle, though I think he’s used it a bit more defensively than offensively thus far. I’ve actually seen him taken down by nearly every opponent he’s faced, largely because they don’t want to trade with him. Some have had success, but very few have held him down for more than a few seconds.
Erceg was able to take him down and take his back in multiple rounds, which is why Erceg won that fight, but it was very tight heading into the final round and Haddon looked to be the fresher party.
Without those back takes, Erceg would not have been able to control Haddon effectively, which is pretty important to note. I don’t think Haddon is a fantastic defensive wrestler, but his ability to scramble urgently makes his overall defense strong.
Plus, his BJJ black belt means he’s still competent on the mat, and when he can secure top position, he can hunt for subs as well.
I don’t know if Haddon will be a great round winner and I bet his skills aren’t top-level overall, but in theory he has paths to winning on the feet and on the mat. He also has paths to winning in wearing down opponents, which I like.
I think that could be key here against Dan Argueta who is a wrestler, and will likely need to grind Haddon out for three rounds to secure the victory.
That’s not a huge problem, though it’s not an easy task either.
Argueta currently lands 4.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and he’s coming off a wild fight with another prospect Jean Matsumoto who he took down eight times, but ultimately got stuck in a submission late in the second round.
Argueta also has losses to Miles Johns and Damon Jackson, who are both very decent wrestlers and neutralized Argueta’s attack somewhat. When he’s faced lower level opponents like Ronnie Lawrence and Nick Aguirre, Argueta has taken them down and controlled them with ease.
Argueta is not the best striker though. He lands 2.18 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 1.90 per minute, with a 51 percent defensive rate. His striking is usually a means to grapple, and purely at range, I don’t consider him super effective and there’s a possibility he could get hurt.
Haddon definitely looks like the better boxer to me, and will probably be a threat to Argueta. Especially if Haddon is defending and scrambling, and forcing Argueta to box, Argueta could get tired and hurt. So I think Haddon has KO upside in that sense and it feels like a reasonable outcome.
I could also see Haddon landing takedowns. Argueta is defending them at 57 percent which is poor, but against decent competition. Haddon could take him down and maybe threaten a choke, but Argueta will scramble.
Really, Argueta needs to grind Haddon out to win. He put on a freaking relentless pace against Matsumoto in his last fight which was lovely to see, but he got tired doing so, and Matsumoto kept getting back up. Given the striking of Haddon and quality of his grappling as well, I could see a very similar result taking place.
Argueta shouldn’t be completely overlooked though. He can take the back and he will likely run at Haddon early and dive on double legs. I think it’s pretty likely he can land several takedowns in this fight. It’s really just a question of whether he can continuously turn that into control, primarily back control, and not tire out over 15 minutes.
I think I’ll take Haddon to win just because I feel more confident that he’ll be the more effective striker, and I’ve also really liked his cardio. But I am fearful of underrating Argueta and I fully expect Argueta to give Haddon a tough test early.
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On DraftKings, Argueta is the easier target at 7.5k due to his aggressive wrestling style.
He really only has one primary path to victory, which is based in that wrestling. He’s coming off a loss in RD 2, in which he scored 66 points, which is pretty insane. He has incredible upside in a win.
It’s just not an easy matchup. Haddon may very well end up taking him down. So I don’t want to overcommit here.
But I also love the upside with Argueta and he is decent. Haddon is making his debut so underperforming is possible. I do think Argueta will have some opportunities early.
I am pretty nervous Argueta loses but at this price tag, he’s still a strong secondary option for obvious wrestling upside and I’ll likely end up near the field with exposure.
Haddon is more boom or bust. He probably won’t land a ton of striking volume, and takedowns aren’t a guarantee. Arugeta will be pushing him backward so Haddon could be forced to play a more defensive game early.
I think Haddon needs to knock Argueta out or submit him early to have a real shot at the optimal. He’s +160 ITD which is actually pretty decent, but it’s still hard to rely on.
I don’t love Haddon but I don’t hate him. There are cheaper fighters with more obvious upside and the top tier is more valuable as well. I think that probably means Haddon will be overlooked to a degree.
Mixing in some Haddon as a secondary option makes sense but he won’t be an outright priority. He’ll work better for me in mid-range based builds where I cannot afford to pay up to the top.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Haddon by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha
Fight Odds: Carpenter -207, Rocha +175
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Carpenter 8.8k, Rocha 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Clayton Carpenter is a Contender Series alum from the 2022 who made good on his UFC debut back in 2023. He’ll be making his sophomore appearance after a healthy layoff – he’s 1-0 in the UFC and 7-0 as a pro. Lucas Rocha’s a fellow Contender Series alum who earned a contract last October and will now be making his debut after a string of cancellations – he’s 17-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Carpenter is still earlier on his pro career with seven fights and quite a few early finishes, so we don’t have an extensive sample of him on the feet but enough to make a read. He works in more of a stalking to mid-range kickboxing style.
He’s not the highest output 125er in the world but has shown good offensive tools between lead hooks, leg kicks and high kicks where he’s finished two opponents.
We also saw his leg kicks add up in his DWCS fight against Chairez which played a role in slowing him down.
However, Carpenter did get off to a slower start in that fight where he struggled with Chairez’s length a bit in jabs and lead hooks – Carpenter got buckled on a few occasions and got his right eye pretty banged up.
But he showed his heart in that fight, going on to win the latter two rounds and officially outlanded Chairez at distance. We saw him struggle with leg kicks a bit in his 3rd pro fight against Medina as well.
But his defense is kind of weird in the sense that he actually slips punches really well, but he can also find himself walking into shots.
Overall, I’d like a bit more of a sample before making any definitive claims with Carpenter but he’s a tough guy who’s serviceable on the feet.
I’m unsure of Rocha’s official base but he profiles as more of a traditional Brazilian thai striker.
He’s been relatively aggressive in his approach where 10 of his 17 pro wins come via KO/TKO – a few of his more recent ones coming with highlight reel knees.
At the same time, his striking style is pretty sporadic where he’s off balance a lot of the time when throwing his kicks and knees, or he’s overcommitting to his punches.
While that style has been fruitful for him in terms of his pro record, it’s also got him in trouble in a handful of fights as well. He was KO’d in his only pro loss by Gabriel and was hurt significantly in his fight against Ramos.
But I have seen him be technical in stretches in terms of digging the body and throwing in more processed combinations, but he largely profiles as more of a “meme” than me thinking he’s really anything special as a technical striker.
Overall, Rocha has a chaotic style that can cause issues to certain opponents in addition to having power at the weight class, but I still don’t like him defensively and he’ll get beat by more technical parties at the UFC level.
How it plays out: The striking seems somewhat variable in the sense that Carpenter has shown power and the ability to strike with a capable guy in Chairez a few fights back. But as noted, I’m still not the biggest fan of his activity and Rocha will be the more active/dynamic guy. I do think it’s interesting that the two times that Rocha’s been hurt have been with hooks though which is one of Carpenter’s better weapons. It’s probably a scrap on the feet with both guys having the opportunities to hurt each other, but I’d probably lean Rocha for the activity component.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Carpenter began training wrestling and grappling in his teens where he currently holds a brown belt in BJJ.
Despite that, he’s not a guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes but he has worked the ground into most of his fights.
I don’t think his entry wrestling is anything special, but he’s shown some good entries to the legs where he specifically excels with doubles or singles when he gets in deeper.
However, he doesn’t appear to be a great chain wrestler.
What I like about his floor game the most is when he actually gets into top position. He’s pretty consistent to pass the guard where he’s strong from half, mount or in taking the back to accrue minutes or finding his RNCs.
Defensively, we’ve only seen him on the bottom in a few instances.
In one instance, he failed a TDA but was able to get up and reshoot. In another, he and his opponent got tied up in a weird position where he secured a knee bar. Lastly, he pulled a half-hearted guillotine in his debut against Ronderos where he got controlled a bit, but was able to threaten with a triangle armbar series to then reverse position and finish the fight shortly after.
Overall, Carpenter’s ground game looks decent as he definitely has the skill set in both the wrestling and the grappling to expose fighters who don’t come proper at the lower tiers of the weight class. I’m a bit skeptical of his overall upside on the floor though against a better level of competition.
Rocha is a BJJ purple belt who reps four of his 17 wins via submission, but we haven’t seen a ton of conventional offensive wrestling from him.
Given his more chaotic striking style, his opponents tend to be the one shooting on him. It’s also in that style to where he’s found himself off balance on multiple occasions which has allowed opponents to catch kicks or capitalize on slips from him.
He has shown off some good sprawls at times but he’s also a guy that over sprawls which allows opponents to finish TDs. He still got tossed around for essentially the entire 1st round on DWCS.
He’s one of those guys who likes to rely on scrambles to try to get himself out of wrestling sequences, but it’s also resulted in him getting his back taken in three separate outings that I watched.
In his defense, he’s fought hands well but has struggled to break body triangles and still has dropped rounds or more extended minutes in those positions.
He’s definitely a guy who’s going to make his opponents work and has 15 minutes of cardio, but I feel he’ll struggle with stronger positional players at the UFC level.
How it plays out: This is where I’d give a stronger advantage to Carpenter, no pun intended. He’s physically strong at the weight class where Rocha’s kind of a noodle – coupled with me thinking that Carpenter is the best ground fighter Rocha’s fought to date. Once again, I don’t think Carpenter is Jordan Burroughs or anything but I’m pretty optimistic that he’ll be able to ground Rocha in this fight and be able to capitalize on the mistakes that Rocha makes to generally pass or take the back.
Fun fight between two guys I wasn’t super familiar with, given that I don’t watch much Contender Series anymore and both haven’t fought in a second. Rocha seems like a “fun” fighter to me but not a guy I think has much longevity in the UFC to be honest – he’s only 24 years old though which needs to be said and it depends on how they book him. I’m still not crazy bullish on Carpenter generally but he’s a guy I think has more longevity upside in the UFC. I just think he’s the better athlete and his ground game should give a healthy number of issues to Rocha.
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On DraftKings, both sides are in play in what could be a very fun fight.
Rocha is an interesting DraftKings target because he is chaotic, aggressive, and has won a ton of fights inside the distance. He’s priced very cheaply at 7.4k and could force Carpenter into a messy fight that could produce a finish.
In that sense, he’s an upside target. Rocha is +225 ITD which is very strong for the price tag. I really don’t love him as a talent as he’s defensively void, and I’m picking him to lose, but it’s still worth noting the theoretical upside of Rocha.
Carpenter is interesting because of the defensive issues of Rocha. He’s priced up to 8.8k but could have considerable wrestling upside, as well as knockout upside.
I am a little nervous to play Carpenter heavily because he profiles more as a round winner than a finisher at this level, but he did just finish his first opponent in RD 1. He’s also +225 to win ITD which is OK but not as strong for the price.
What I really like here is the environment for scoring. I am far from certain Carpenter wins easily or ITD, but Rocha is going to give up a lot of offense at this level and he’ll probably get finished. Because Carpenter can also wrestle, he has significant upside.
At 8.8k, he feels less safe with less upside than the top tier, but he’s more affordable, and I’ve also talked with some sharper people who like him in this spot.
All things considered, I may go out of my way to get some exposure to Carpenter. I doubt I’ll end up extremely heavy but for the price and offensive environment, Carpenter rates out pretty well and I’m excited to watch this one at the least.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Carpenter by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)