UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot (10/11/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Fight Odds: Gamrot -116, Oliveira -101
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Gamrot 8.4k, Oliveira 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
We’ll get a fun action fight here in the main event between former champion Charles Oliveira and solid contender Mateusz Gamrot.
Oliveira unfortunately is coming off getting decimated by Ilia Topuria in the lightweight title fight back in June, and it does leave a bit of a sour taste in my mouth. Not that the outcome was difficult to see coming, but Oliveira continues to take damage and it’s tough to feel very confident in his defensive skills moving forward.
Gamrot rebounded nicely with a win over Ludovit Klein in May, having dropped his fight against Dan Hooker in the matchup prior.
Gamrot has had a ton of success wrestling in the UFC, and currently averages 5.33 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Even in his three UFC losses, he landed five takedowns against Hooker, five takedowns against Kutateladze and four against Dariush.
He also has had a lot of success on the European ADCC grappling scene and I consider him a strong submission grappler, but he’s not elite with top control. He’s also fought really strong competition thus far, and the fact that he was able to land six takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan tells me he has takedown upside against pretty much any opponent in this division.
On the feet it’s a different story. He only lands 3.35 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.04 and defending at 59 percent. He’s not out there in wild striking exchanges, and he hasn’t landed a ton of volume in the fights that have gone the distance.
He’s also been knocked down by five different opponents, which is a major concern. RDA, Tsarukyan, Dariush, Turner and Kutateladze were all credited with KDs against Gamrot, and my fear is just that he’s too dependent on grappling dominance in a very tough division. To be fair he survived all five, and even came back to win a few of them.
Ultimately, Gamrot is a very strong wrestler and grappler, and the majority of his success is going to come with takedowns. He can survive striking exchanges as well, but he’s more of a liability there.
I find it a little bit interesting that Gamrot is favored here, as Ludovit Klein was a super popular underdog bet in Gamrot’s last matchup, which I’d argue is a major step down from Oliveira.
We were on Gamrot in that spot to be fair, and although I can see a similar path to success against Oliveira, it won’t come easily.
The primary issue here is that Oliveira is still an elite submission grappler for MMA, and he’s a strong wrestler as well. I’m not convinced Gamrot can easily take him down, but even if he can, Gamrot will have to deal with transitional threats from Oliveira, as well as submission threats from his back.
So although Gamrot has a real chance to land takedowns here, that path isn’t safe. And even if he’s earning a few minutes of top control, he’s not necessarily guaranteed to win those rounds without additional damage or submission threats.
On the feet, both fighters have defensive flaws. Oliveira has been hurt numerous times, and coming off a big KO loss, I wouldn’t be shocked if that issue gets worse. Maybe Gamrot can even hurt him.
But I’d favor Oliveira, who I believe is a more effective offensive fighter, and a bit more dynamic. He lands strikes at a similar rate to Gamrot, at 3.41 per minute with 3.26 absorbed, and a 48 percent defensive rate.
So maybe it’s unfair to consider Oliveira a moderate favorite on the feet. Maybe he’s just too defensively liable, and won’t smash on the volume side either. I do think Oliveira has a better chance to hurt Gamrot than vice versa, and I’d lean toward the optics on his side.
Otherwise, you can argue that it’s a tough matchup for Oliveira who’s proven to be a super skilled offensive wrestler in his own right. Gamrot is defending takedowns at 90 percent, and defended 7/8 against Tsarukyan. So Oliveira won’t have an easy path to landing takedowns either.
I just consider the threat of Oliveira to be far, far greater than that of Gamrot. Oliveira holds records for the most finishes and submissions in the UFC, and Gamrot tends to win by decision.
While Gamrot’s path to a decision will be here, landing takedowns, earning top control, and surviving striking exchanges.. those paths come with a lot of threat from Oliveira where I simply would not be surprised if Oliveira caught him.
I suppose a competitive betting line makes sense. It’s difficult to gauge exactly where Oliveira’s game is at in 2025, and coming off a big KO loss, I am a little bit nervous. He can give up takedowns. However, Gamrot really relies on volume takedowns and top control and that’s just not the easiest path to victory against Oliveira.
I want to lean toward Oliveira given the threat of the finish, and his elite submission grappling skills, but I’m not overwhelmingly confident.
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On DraftKings, this is still going to be a priority matchup and I expect the winner to contend for the optimal lineup.
Gamrot is priced at 8.4k, and already has strong scores in three round fights. In his lone five-round victory, Gamrot put up 107 in a decision. His last two three-round decisions scored 117 and 131 though, so his upside is truly insane when his game is working.
I wouldn’t necessarily expect a true ceiling performance here, but if Gamrot wins, it’s probably via lots of takedowns and control. So another 5-6 takedowns and 10+ minutes of control are very much in play, which would be enough to exceed value at this price tag.
Plus, there’s some finishing equity against Oliveira who’s been hurt a lot, and even has been submitted plenty of times in the past. Gamrot is only +215 to win ITD and I would lean toward a decision victory, but a finish is not out of the question.
Oliveira is priced at 7.8k, and is +115 to win ITD which is getting pretty close to his moneyline, meaning the majority of his win equity is tied to a finish.
I suppose the only real concern is if Oliveira gets held down for a round, and then locks up a second round or third round submission without accruing a lot of points per minute. So perhaps he could bust in a win, and score 85 points.
But we’ve also seen him clear 100 many times, and his most recent wins have scored 123, 114, 114, 94 and 109. Even 90-100 points would put him in contention for the optimal at 7.8k.
The easiest call here is to split your exposure. I don’t think I’d want to be leaning too far in either direction personally, as it’s just a difficult matchup to call with some added variance.
Having moderate exposure to Gamrot for grappling upside over five rounds makes a lot of sense, especially as he is the favorite. Oliveira has clear early finishing equity too and for 7.8k, I wouldn’t want to be too far off the field percentage there either.
I am likely going to project a competitive split on public ownership as well, as it will be difficult for most to take real stands.
If you have a strong preference feel free to lean in that direction but I’d aim to have a lot of exposure to his fight as a whole, and split my action relatively evenly.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oliveira by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
Fight Odds: Jackson -307, Figueiredo +252
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Jackson 9k, Figueiredo 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I always look forward to watching Montel Jackson fight in the Octagon and we are in for a fun step up for him from a name value standpoint here against Deiveson Figuereido.
It is super interesting because it feels like Montel Jackson has been in the UFC forever, but he really hasn’t fought any of the historically ranked fighters. He has 12 UFC fights and has fought basically Ricky Simon. All his other competition has been lower tier guys or mid level competition who never really made it to the top 10-15 in the division. I just have been surprised that Jackson never got a step up vs some top 10-15 guys more consistently.
Anyway, I think it is good that he is getting a bigger name in Deiveson Figuereido here because a win should propel him into many top 15 matchups.
Jackson is a good fighter and comes from a wrestling background. I consider him a good wrestler but he’s not perfect. He lands 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. He can ride out top position. He is clearly capable of out grappling UFC competition. However, I do question his ability to outwrestle good grapplers.
Montel is a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 68 percent and is generally good at scrambling up. He uses great hand control to scramble up. He did lose to Ricky Simon and Brett Johns though who outgrappled him. Good grapplers can definitely have success vs Jackson, but he can generally defend himself just fine against most of this division.
I also consider Montel a skilled and dangerous striker. His athleticism and speed assist him in his striking tremendously. He lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.39 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 62 percent.
Montel is long and controls range well. He has decent power and is capable of hurting opponents with his straight punches and kicks. He knocked Blackshear out dead recently. He also looked good in his decision win against Julio Arce on the feet.
Jackson is simply a solid fighter and is very well-rounded. He can strike and grapple, and he is a capable finisher with power and front choke submissions as well. He also seems durable and I have never really seen him hurt before.
Jackson will be paired up against Deiveson Figuereido. Figuereido is very dangerous and we all know that. He can hurt just about anyone and has a dangerous guillotine choke. He is also super athletic and is well-rounded. He can strike, he can wrestle.
However, his metrics aren’t great. He only lands 2.82 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.64 in return. He does land 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes though. He only defends takedowns at 58 percent, but is an explosive and capable scrambler.
I always just get nervous picking Figuereido because he tends to have low moments of inactivity on the feet. We have seen him lose fights because of this. However, he can always make up for that by hurting opponents with explosive movements. Those moments are hard to predict so I have always struggled picking his fights. However, I think we all know the drill with him and know the risks of picking him or against him.
I do think Figueiredo has declined though. He got battered by Yan and Sandhagen recently. Both of those guys are very good fighters but I just feel like Figuereido has been declining for a couple of years now.
As far as this matchup goes, I just have to go with the bigger and younger Jackson here. I just worry about Figueiredo’s age and form. Figueiredo just hasn’t looked great and I worry about his output in fights in general.
On the feet, I favor the length and volume of Jackson. I think he will control range and generally be the busier fighter with crisper shots. I do think Figueiredo could land some big shots though and Jackson isn’t the highest output fighter either so perhaps Figueiredo can manufacture some close rounds.
I actually do think either guy could land some takedowns here but I doubt either man could control each other that easily.
I just generally think the winner of the striking exchanges will win the fight. It will probably be somewhat competitive in a fight that extends but I think over the duration, Jackson will land a little more.
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On DraftKings, this is a tricky one.
On paper, it doesn’t rate out super well. The fight is -150 to go the distance, and Jackson isn’t a super high producer of offense.
Where he’d really have some potential is with volume wrestling, and I do think Jackson is capable of landing a few. But he’s inconsistent there, and otherwise, Jackson is dependent on a knockout.
He’s still got Francis Ngannou sized hands, and Figueiredo has been declining, but it probably wouldn’t be an outcome I’d be excited to bet on. Jackson is +170 to win ITD in total.
At 9k, he feels more like a contrarian target to me. There are other fighters who are safer and have more finishing equity on paper. Jackson has a legit ceiling historically but many of his results have been outliers (11 takedowns, 4 knockdowns, quick win bonus).
I do think he has early finishing upside and 100 point potential, but that outcome doesn’t feel like a super high percentage outcome. I’m not willing to prioritize him at the very least, but the lower owned he is, the more in play he’d become for the purpose of being a little bit different.
Figueiredo does interest me a little bit, but it’s more based on a gut feeling that at his best, Figueiredo is kind of a pest, and Jackson likes to be comfortable.
If Figueiredo can fight aggressively and close distance, I could see him winning this fight. I’m not sure how likely that is, and at bantamweight given Fig’s recent performances, it doesn’t feel like a likely outcome either.
Ultimately, you don’t need to be on Fig at all either.
At 7.2k, I do think he’s in play at least. Jackson has been taken down a lot by fighters who are not very special.. 3x Daniel Marcos, 1x Julio Arce, 1x JP Buys, 8x Brett Johns, 1x Andre Soukhamthath.
Once you start considering if Figueiredo can get two takedowns, suddenly, he could win a round. Two rounds aren’t out of the question, and he’s obviously a very effective striker at times too.
My guess is that the size and athleticism of Jackson are enough to stifle Figueiredo. Jackson will tower over him and has a 7-inch reach advantage. He might honestly look comfortable on the feet and land takedowns, and it may be non-competitive. I also just don’t think Jackson thrives once fights get uncomfortable.
Figueiredo at 7.2k is +550 to win ITD, so he’s not a priority at all. I don’t mind being in on him a bit at lower ownership, but a low-end target at best.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jackson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez
Fight Odds: Alvarez -587, Luque +443
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Alvarez 9.5k, Luque 6.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fight that is almost guaranteed violence here as Joel Alvarez will square off against Vicente Luque.
It feels like everyone lost a lot of money fading Joel Alvarez in his early UFC run. Luckily, I did not and recognized him as a dangerous guy who was capable of finishing sup par competition. I then bet against him in his only loss against Tsarukyan and won some cash.
I was not completely right about Alvarez though. I was actually pretty wrong about him. I always thought Alvarez was overrated even though he was winning a lot of fights and finishing guys. However, he has grown on me and I think he has shown a lot of improvements in general, and I have come to respect his game. I am not saying he doesn’t have flaws, but he is clearly and objectively a dangerous fighter.
Anyway, Joel is a big guy standing at 6’3” and he is finally being forced to fight at welterweight after missing weight multiple times at lightweight. He lands 4.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.32 in return. His striking looked absolutely horrible in his UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov where he was outlanded 64-37 at distance and lost a clean decision.
However, I do think his striking has looked improved and actually quite good in some of his recent matchups. He landed some hard leg kicks and power strikes on Joseph Duffy and Thiago Moises, knocking out the latter. He then beat the crap out of Elves Brenner and outlanded him 95-45 in significant strikes, and knocked him dead in round three. It was honestly a really good performance. It made me think Alvarez can make a run in the division.
Most recently, Alvarez knocked out Drakkar Klose in round one. He is clearly dangerous on the feet and it looks like he has improved as a round winning striker as well. He is starting to pressure guys very well and land his powerful long strikes. I liked seeing this improvement by him.
Joel is historically an awful wrestler. He has not landed a takedown yet in the UFC and has defended takedowns at a poor 40 percent. He had been laid on for entire rounds which was the case against Belluardo in round one, and you have also seen it in some more recent fights like against Marc Diakiese. Tsarukyan also was easily able to get takedowns and hold top position on Alvarez.
I do think Joel has improved as a defensive wrestler though. He defended all five takedowns against Brener and also worked up against Klose when he was taken down. Do I think Alvarez would now suddenly stop takedowns against Tsarukyan? No I don’t. I think good wrestlers would give him issues. However, I do think Joel is showing improvements which is good.
Joel also has a lot of submission wins in his career. He has a good guillotine when people shoot in and has dangerous guard subs as well. I also think that he has a good guard in general so it isn’t easy to pass his guard.
Joel also seems like a tough guy with solid durability. So he can generally give himself 15 minutes to find a finish. I think he is super dangerous on the feet and on the mat. He also at least may have a path to victory winning rounds on the feet now too. He will be interesting to watch going forward. I am taking him seriously now even if I do think the elite guys would beat him.
Alvarez will be taking on Vicente Luque. Luque is a well-rounded fighter, but he is primarily a striker. He lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute, and he has power. He is always live to win striking fights because of his come forward, high output, and big power style. He also has great calf kicks which can completely shut down his opponents. A good example of this was his fight against Randy Brown. He ate Brown’s legs alive.
Luque is very hittable though. He absorbs 5.25 significant strikes per minute and he only defends strikes at 52 percent. So he can lose rounds on the feet.
Luque is also a solid submission grappler. He is a brown belt in BJJ, and he has six submission wins in the UFC, all of them being a front headlock type of choke (Anaconda or D’Arce). He doesn’t offensively wrestle much though as he only lands 0.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. So you can’t expect him to win fights often with takedowns and control.
However, Luque did land eight takedowns against RDA which was incredibly random. I liked that he showed a new path to victory in that fight but he didn’t look great overall. Luque has okay defensive wrestling. He defends takedowns at 61 percent and has okay scrambling ability.
Luque is historically pretty durable but I am overall concerned that he is past his prime. He was knocked out for his first time against Geoff Neal somewhat recently. He then looked absolutely terrible against Joaquin Buckley, and kind of gave up and conceded to a ground and pound loss. I am not saying he is completely washed and he did bounce back with a recent win over Themba Gorimbo. However, I am just concerned he is a little past it and I don’t like how he has been getting hurt more often. The loss vs Holland in his last matchup also just kind of showed that Luque is probably past it.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Luque has some potential wrestling upside. We have just seen Alvarez lose wrestling based rounds before. After seeing Luque outwrestle RDA, I can’t completely rule that path to victory for Luque out. I still do lean against it though. Alvarez is big and has been improving and Luque generally doesn’t even wrestle often anyway. I at least wanted to mention that avenue for Luque though.
I generally think the winner of this fight will be the winner of the striking exchanges. I just don’t trust Luque on the feet as much at this point of his career. Even RDA was getting the better of the striking exchanges against Luque. Neal also lit Luque up. So did Holland. My guess is Alvarez’s length, youth, and power will be the difference. I think Alvarez will get ahead on the striking totals and eventually hurt Luque.
I still do think Luque can potentially hurt Alvarez as Luque has power but I am leaning against it. Alvarez seems really tough and Luque doesn’t seem as dangerous nowadays. My guess is Alvarez just kind of bullies Luque on the feet in route to a KO or a club and sub type of finish.
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On DraftKings, Alvarez is very expensive and priced at 9.5k, but he might be worth it.
Luque tends to bring the action, as does Alvarez, and so I’m expecting a chaotic fight and one that likely ends inside the distance.
I’ve had some major concerns with Alvarez’ style in the past, and it still bothers me. If your greatest strength is grappling, why not wrestle? But he’s proven to be very opportunistic, and additionally quite dangerous on the feet.
While Luque is a veteran and skilled in all areas, he is definitely past his prime and it feels more likely Alvarez will hurt him than vice versa.
Alvarez is -275 to win ITD which is the best finishing line on this slate, and that could easily make him a priority in the top tier.
Here’s the problem – Alvarez has won ITD in the UFC seven times, and he’s only topped 100 points twice. He’s not wrestling but he’s jumping on submissions, so a lot of times his finishes don’t come with a lot of production.
That doesn’t mean we can’t see ceiling performances either, especially as he’s been striking more as of late. He just won and scored 108, but that’s his high score by a mile.
I kind of expect Alvarez to win ITD here. It could be an early finish, and it could be a knockout. I think he can score around 100 points again, and it feels like a good spot to roster him.
At 9.5k, especially if he’s chalk, you could argue that pivoting off him is the right call, as 98 points is very much in his wheelhouse even in a finish, and there are others both above and below him with finishing equity as well. I’ll likely end up with moderate exposure regardless and I expect him to be popular.
Luque at 6.7k certainly carries upside if he wins.
He’s an action fighter, and can land a lot of strikes. He can win ITD. He can wrestle some.
I really don’t like him in this matchup and don’t expect him to perform super well, but if these guys are just slinging hands, there’s variance at play as well.
Luque is only +600 to win ITD but the fight itself is -400 to end ITD, and he’ll carry a lot of leverage against Alvarez. He’s not going to rate out as a great option but he was once a very good fighter, and I wouldn’t completely count him out.
With a larger portfolio you can consider a small number of shares but I probably won’t aim to invest much personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alvarez by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
Fight Odds: Diniz -140, Pinto +120
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Pinto 8.3k, Diniz 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jhonata Diniz is a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who rebounded back in June off his first career setback – he’s 3-1 in the UFC and 8-1 as a pro. Mario Pinto is a Portuguese national whose family moved to the UK when he was young. He earned a contract on this past season of Contender Series and picked up a win in his UFC debut back in March – he’s 10-0 as a pro.
The striking component:
Diniz is a more recent transplant to MMA coming over from the kickboxing world where he went 22-7 in the discipline before making the transition.
He also fought in some of the more notable promotions in WGP and GLORY.
He went 3-4 in GLORY, so he did struggle when he fought higher level talents in Rico Verhoeven and Hesdy Gerges, but he did go the duration with Verhoeven and the Gerges fight was a corner stoppage. So, it does appear that the guy is durable having only been proper KO’d once, which was with a high kick from a tough Croatian and Mirko Cro Cop pupil in Mladen Brestovac.
In MMA, his technicality does show through as he’ll throw a diverse arsenal of strikes between punches, kicks, knees and elbows – Diniz also has a muay thai background.
He’s got decent hand speed, picks his shots well and obviously brings bigger power components with 7 of his 9 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
His strength of competition has been somewhat low which needs to be noted. He did have some early struggles with Neves on DWCS in tracking him down, and ate some shots of his own, but started to chip away and found the finish with a straight right.
He then pretty much traded bombs with Lane in the 2nd round finding the button. He picked apart wrestler Karl Williams over the bulk of 15 minutes, outlanding him 58 to 25 at distance – I do attribute his more tepid approach there to the matchup with the fear of wrestling. He hurt Williams on more than one occasion despite not getting him out of there, but Williams also landed some clean shots at points as well busting up the nose of Diniz.
We didn’t see much distance time in his fight with Tybura but Diniz nearly knocked him out on one of the first exchanges of the fight before the ground came into play.
Most recently, he outstruck Hines 112-80 over 15 minutes, being the more effective guy, but he did slow down as that fight progressed and dropped round three. Despite winning, getting hit as much as he did by Hines who’s a regional level guy that came in short notice was somewhat alarming.
Overall, I’m curious to see how Diniz fairs when facing a more competent level of MMA striker, but he’s going to beat bottom of the barrel or middling talents on the feet at a decent clip.
Pinto’s not the densest heavyweight out there but he’s a long guy standing 6’5” with a 79” reach.
He comes from a boxing background which is on display in his fights.
He takes a pretty disciplined approach in that he’s not a guy to load up on punches and is more so looking to pepper his opponents with straight shots to score and then find his openings.
What I like about him is that he doesn’t force anything or take unnecessary risks to where he’s fine to stick to his approach even if the finishes don’t come. That said, 6 of his 10 pro wins do come via KO so he does have some pop.
So, he’s relatively technical in his hands but also supplements his head attacks with sound low kicks which have chipped away at opponents.
Defensively, given his boxing background, he keeps a higher guard and rolls with punches pretty well in addition to moving his feet, so he’s never really taking flush shots even when his opponents land.
However, he was briefly hurt in his last fight against Lane which wasn’t the greatest look in the world, but he recovered quickly and put Lane down in the 2nd.
Overall, Pinto hasn’t exactly fought a murderer’s row of competition but for a guy that’s only 26 years old with 9 pro fights, he seems a lot further along than most guys who are at the same point in their careers, and he has actual process to his game.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys will be about the same size in terms of measurables but Diniz will be the more filled out guy. I come away with siding more with Diniz on the feet just because I think he’s a bit cleaner and he has more raw KO power in comparison to Pinto. That said, Pinto’s honestly one of the best strikers Diniz has faced thus far in MMA who’s pretty technical himself, who also has the volume to compete with Diniz. As noted, he’s not a small hitter either and I would give a cardio advantage to Pinto so I do feel Pinto is live to win on the feet here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There’s not a ton to say with Diniz here from an offensive perspective given his lack of MMA sample and striking success.
Apparently, he’s a blue belt in BJJ and he stuffed roughly four TDAs regionally before KOing opponents standing shortly after.
However, he got taken down without much issue early in his debut against Lane, spending 4.5 minutes on his back and ending the round in bottom mount. He was trying to move a bit, but he by and large looked lost down there and Austen Lane isn’t a special talent. But he survived the round to his credit and stuffed the following three shots the next round.
He stuffed the two early original attempts from Williams although Williams didn’t really set much up. However, he got taken down twice in the 3rd round when Williams actually committed, and clearly lost the round. Diniz put up healthy resistance to the first attempt but when his shoulders got flattened in the 2nd attempt, he didn’t offer much.
I know some people are trying to take positives from those sequences, but I don’t take much personally. Williams legit only shot in the fight when he was hurt on the feet. People also have to remember that Williams is a guy with very limited jiu-jitsu capabilities and has always been a volume/mat return wrestler type – so guys have stuffed and worked up under him in numerous fights and multiple times.
After hurting Tybura early, he got swept from top position, ending the rest of the round on bottom – Tybura secured an early TD in the 2nd, ending the round in mount landing big blows which ultimately resulted in a doctors stoppage after the round expired.
Most recently, he was briefly taken down by Hines early but popped up quickly and stuffed Hines’ other nine TDAs where his mechanics looked a bit better – granted Hines isn’t a very good wrestler though.
Overall, Diniz presents no real offensive ground upside and has shown to be a bigger liability on the bottom thus far in the UFC.
There isn’t too much to say here for Pinto given his boxing base as a guy who likes to stand and strike.
But I have seen him land TDs in a few fights.
He actually fought a sambo based opponent in his 3rd pro fight and was able to take him down, get to the back early and score a submission – the guy didn’t seem very good in fairness but on paper, that wasn’t an opponent he was supposed to outgrapple.
He also positionally TKO’d a 280 lb jiu-jitsu guy – kinda funny fight but he did all the right things avoiding half guard sweeps and leg locks to remain safe.
He’s been taken down a handful of times but has by and large shown good TDD and the ability to work up quickly in the few instances he’s been taken down.
However, he did get stuck against the fence a healthy amount in his last regional fight.
Overall, Pinto appears to be competent on the floor despite not having a conventional wrestling or grappling background. I’ve still never seen him flattened though so his true bottom game is questionable.
How it plays out: Both guys aren’t really willing wrestlers as base strikers so I’d generally anticipate that we get a stand up fight. That said, if I had to assign higher upside, I would give more to Pinto because he has landed some TDs and has some ground based finishes – his general concepts in the bit I’ve seen do appear more capable where Diniz is kind of lost.
Fun scrap. Despite both coming off wins, they weren’t the cleanest performances with Diniz losing a round to Hines and Pinto getting hurt by Lane. I do ultimately come out on the Diniz side for some of the striking reasons mentioned above as he’s a bit more seasoned and has more critical hit upside, but it’s not an impassioned take because I like Pinto’s striking as well, he’s got some pop, good volume and of the two, more theoretical grappling upside.
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On DraftKings, this should be a standard, boom or bust heavyweight affair.
The other point to make is that the line has moved toward Diniz this week, despite him opening as the underdog, and I agree with the movement.
He’s now a value at 7.9k, pushing -140 to win, and the larger that moneyline closes, the more of a value he is and the more ownership I’d expect him to carry.
For that reason, he’s also my preferred target. He’s a technical kickboxer with some volume and power, though he’s only +180 to win ITD. Pinto just got hurt by Lane, but he’s also tough and has gone the distance many times, so I’m not sold Diniz gets a finish.
I do think having exposure to Diniz makes sense and I’d consider him a strong secondary target given the value, but he just scored 75 in a decision and I wouldn’t be shocked if a win here resulted in something similar.
So if he’s going to be super chalk, I don’t love Diniz and wouldn’t want to match the field. The fight is only -160 to end inside the distance and a decision wouldn’t be a surprise.
Ultimately, that’s why it’s just a boom or bust matchup in my mind. Targeting some Diniz for value/KO upside makes sense but without the KO, I wouldn’t expect him to be optimal and that result is far from a guarantee.
Pinto at 8.3k should be the leverage side, and despite winning by KO in his UFC debut, I don’t think he looked awesome.
Neither did the public as he’s now the underdog here and overvalued on DK, and I’d expect him to come in with significantly less ownership than Diniz. He’s +200 to win ITD which is still a decent number.
On one hand, Pinto actually rates out well here as the leverage side. In large fields, I could make the argument to be above market on him given his finishing props and the leverage. There’s still plenty of variance in striking exchanges and he could hurt Diniz. Maybe he chooses to grapple as well.
On the other hand, I noted Pinto as someone I’d expect to win more decisions at the UFC level, and he’s not a super urgent KO artist. He’s plenty fine to go the distance. Even if he wins a decision, I wouldn’t want him at 8.3k.
Diniz is a very experienced kickboxer with decent durability on paper, so it’s just not a great matchup on paper for Pinto to smash. Even with a RD 2 KO last time out, he only scored 86. There’s some merit here given the leverage and variance but I’ll likely be light on Pinto this weekend myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Diniz by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli
Fight Odds: Ramos -206, Ofli +174
Odds to end ITD: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Ramos 8.8k, Ofli 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
Ricardo Ramos has really lost a lot of his shine, and has now only picked up one win in his past four fights, and two wins in his past six. He’ll take on former TUF finalist Kaan Ofli this weekend.
Ramos came into the sport young, and fairly skilled in all areas of the game. He’s a strong submission grappler, and has knockout ability as well.
He just has not been able to put the pieces together very often in the UFC, and unfortunately, he has not fared well when he’s faced adversity.
Ramos currently lands 2.97 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.06 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate. It’s a low striking volume, and he’s getting hit far more often than he lands strikes.
While Ramos has the occasional KO win, including two spinning back elbow KOs over Danny Chavez and Aiemann Zahabi, he’s been knocked down and knocked out a couple times as well.
Ramos probably thrives the most when he can just dominate on the mat. He lands 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and topped out at eight takedowns landed against Bill Algeo in 2021.
He’s a BJJ black belt who is more than capable of taking the back and locking in the RNC.
Again, the issue is he just doesn’t face adversity well. Despite his credentials, he’s been guillotined in round one in two of his last three losses by Julian Erosa and Charles Jourdain. His one recent win was a split decision where he was outstruck 70-27 and knocked down.
Ramos looks awful right now. I still think he can land takedowns, and he can strike a little bit. He’s tough to trust.
Kaan Ofli is 11-4 professionally, coming off losses to Mairon Santos and Muhammad Naimov, and he’s earned two wins by knockout and five by submission.
He’s fairly well-rounded, with competent kickboxing and a black belt in BJJ, though I don’t think he’s incredible in any facet of the game.
My biggest issue with Ofli is that I’m not sure where he’s really going to shine at the UFC level. When fights play out on the feet, sure he can stay competitive at times, but he’s a bit small for featherweight and doesn’t have clear volume or knockout upside.
He looks really tough, but he’s been hurt plenty of times on the regionals and he was finally KOd in the TUF finale against Santos. I mean, even in his most recent regional fight, which was in 2023, Ofli was getting beaten up early and didn’t look spectacular. He fought back pretty well and ended up beating the guy in round three though.
More recently, I’ve seen him lean on his wrestling and grappling game more, which looks OK. I actually think he’s decent in top position, but his success is going to be dependent on his level of competition.
On TUF, Ofli won his first fight against a bigger Nathan Fletcher. He took Fletcher down early and had him in really bad spots on the mat, almost finishing the fight in round one. Fletcher came back in round two and had his moments, but Ofli was still more effective throughout. Ofli won his second TUF fight with a first-minute guillotine which really wasn’t helpful to watch.
I don’t think Ofli is terrible. His boxing is OK. He can throw leg kicks, and he’s somewhat explosive. He can grapple OK. I just don’t think he’s great at anything and he probably sets up best as a round winner at the UFC level, primarily when he’s facing a weaker defensive grappler.
Most recently, Ofli lost a semi-competitive fight to Naimov, who was able to take him down a couple of times and control him for stretches. Naimov didn’t look dominant, but he did hurt Ofli, and Ofli wasn’t able to produce much offense, only landing 14 distance strikes to Naimov’s 22 over 15 minutes.
Ofli will continue to be outsized at bantamweight which is a major problem considering he doesn’t have any dominant aspects of his game. He’s not a bad fighter and is capable on the mat at least, but it will be hard for him to put his stamp on fights.
In terms of the matchup, I guess I lean toward Ramos. Despite his issues, he’s still a couple inches taller than Ofli with a six-inch reach advantage.
Ramos is probably more capable at distance than Ofli who will need to close the distance and rough Ramos up. I don’t really trust Ramos in general, but he might be able to hurt Ofli. If Ofli forces a higher paced stand-up affair that goes the distance, Ofli has a shot.
On the mat, Ramos is probably the better wrestler and will project for a couple of takedowns again. I’m not sure if he will crush Ofli on the mat but he might be able to take the back.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ofil survived and also, Ramos has been subbed early now multiple times. It’s simply difficult to trust Ramos anywhere the fight goes but he does feel like the correct pick once again and likely will need to “blow it” in order for Ofli to pull off the upset.
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On DraftKings, I’m not sure if I have the energy to click on either one of these names.
Ramos has some upside on paper. He can win ITD and it could come on the mat. He’s +195 to win ITD which is OK.
In his wins, Ramos has scored 56, 102, 98, 106, 68, 60, 89 and 63, so it’s been all over the board.
If he can win ITD early, he can score around 100 points. If the fight extends, he probably won’t get there, unless we see another random eight takedown performance.
I’m not against playing Ramos, but I prefer him more as a differentiator than someone who feels like an awesome target this week. My guess is he won’t be too popular given his sucky recent history.
Mixing in Ramos for upside given the matchup makes sense, but I’d probably aim to be near the field and don’t have a particularly strong reason to feel excited for him.
Ofli at 7.4k is viable only in the sense of.. what happens if Ramos blows this?
Would that look like an early KO? Could Ofli sub him? I don’t have a great feeling about either, and he’s only +300 to win ITD. Maybe he can.
I think it would probably look like Ramos having some early success, and fading hard. Ofli having late success and maybe it turns into a finish. Ramos shouldn’t be in a lot of danger anywhere though.
Ultimately Ofli is still an underdog here, and won’t project to accrue a lot of offense. It’s not an easy matchup to get Ramos down and finish him, and Ofli isn’t really a knockout artist.
I can get behind low-end exposure based on the “what if” scenarios but I’m having a hard time projecting how often that comes or what the ceiling case is. I’ll likely just prioritize other dogs I feel more comfortable with but low-end shares of Ofli feel fine.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ramos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell
Fight Odds: Aswell -148, Almeida +126
Odds to end ITD: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Aswell 8.6k, Almeida 7.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really fun action fight here between Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell.
Almeida is basically a striker. He has some technical striking and can work the head, body and legs with kicks and punches.
I still don’t like his metrics though. He is landing 4.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 5.04 in return. He is just a little too hittable for my liking but he can dish it out too. I do consider him somewhat tough. Andre Fili knocked him out and he can be hurt, but he will fight hard.
Almeida doesn’t really look to grapple much offensively, and I don’t expect it to be a path to victory for him at this level.
I don’t love Almeida’s submission grappling. He has decent TDD honestly and pops up pretty well, but he gives up his back. He also defends takedowns at 53 percent and has been beaten on the mat before.
Almeida will be taking on Michael Aswell. Aswell is an American fighter who is 10-3 professionally. He lost a split decision, back and forth war against Bogdan Grad on DWCS where he won the significant strike battle 155-102. He then lost a back and forth fight against Bolaji Oki in his UFC debut where he lost the significant strike battle 136-118.
Aswell is just a tough, gritty volume striker. I don’t totally love his defense and he can be cracked. However, he will come forward and throw volume hard for 15 minutes which can win fights at this level. He also seems very tough and has never been finished in his UFC career. He isn’t a huge hitter but can accumulate damage and finishes through volume.
Aswell doesn’t wrestle much and has not won by submission in his career. I expect him to basically just volume strike at this level. He will likely get outwrestled at this level too although his TDD and defensive grappling isn’t terrible.
I just think we are in for a war here. I tend to lean Aswell slightly just because he has put up such insane volume in his UFC logged fights. I also just think he may be more durable than Almeida too which could really matter in a back and forth war.
There is a lot of variance here though and both guys are hittable. So anything could really happen. However, I expect this to just be a high octane contest where Aswell probably wins based on volume and durability.
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On DraftKings, this should be a fun fight though it won’t be a guarantee to smash.
What I like is that it should be a high-paced fight, and when finishes occur, the winner tends to be optimal. However, when finishes don’t occur, it’s likely the winner is not optimal.
The reason I point that out is because Aswell has just landed 118 and 155 significant strikes in his two matchups. The former would have scored 77 in a decision, and the latter would have scored 92.
So yes, if he gets another 155 sig. strikes he’s very much in play but otherwise, scoring in the 80s is probably what we’d get in a decision. Aswell can win ITD still, given the number of punches he lands, but he’s only +375 to win ITD.
It’s tough for me to label him a true priority because of that. The most likely outcome seems like a decision and therefore, Aswell probably isn’t optimal at 8.6k. However, Almeida has been KOd before and if something happens to hurt him, suddenly, he’s a smash.
I think Aswell is a fine secondary target at 8.6k all things considered. I’m not extremely high on him but I like the pacing of the matchup and Almeida isn’t super defensively sound. He might be semi-contrarian as well.
Almeida is an easier target at 7.6k given the pricing.
He’s in the same matchup, and can land a lot of strikes, and eat a lot of strikes. The only real difference is that I don’t think his volume upside is that high, and his durability might be worse.
Almeida is also a semi dangerous offensive striker, and Aswell gets hit a ton too. So Almeida has KO upside as well and is actually +200 ITD which is far better than Aswell’s number.
Especially in that context, Almeida is a potentially strong target. You’re getting a semi value in a high paced fight with some KO upside. Though he might very well lose, he’s a solid secondary target at 7.6k.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aswell by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter
Fight Odds: Carpenter -117, Filho +101
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Carpenter 8.2k, Filho 8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jafel Filho’s a Contender Series alum who got a tough draw in his debut back in 2023 against Muhammad Mokaev but he fought valiantly – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 16-4 as a pro. Clayton Carpenter is a Contender Series alum and a newer prospect at 125 who made good on his first couple showings but is looking to rebound off a step up loss to Tagir Ulanbekov back in January – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Our footage on Filho in recent years isn’t vast and a good chunk of his fights involve heavier grappling components, so he’s still a bit difficult to assess on the feet pro or con.
Historically, he’s been a lower volume guy that likes to pick and choose his shots. But he has been accurate to some degree and has shown some sneaky elements of power with five pro wins via strikes – he landed a nasty body shot back on the regionals, hit Echeverria with an excellent hook on Contender Series and also landed some clean shots against Barez that buckled him.
We saw very little on the feet in his last couple fights against Osbourne and Nascimento.
But I don’t think you can really anticipate Filho to go out there and pace his opponents in a vacuum despite showing pockets of aggression.
Defensively, he hasn’t faced extensive volume as his style tends to slow the pace of fights traditionally. He appears to be more susceptible to kicks as we saw both Echeverria and Barez have success there. However, Barez also ripped his body and hurt Filho early on a few different occasions.
But he’s also proven his toughness specifically in that fight and in his pro career having never been KO’d.
Overall, in what’s a higher paced division, I would like to see more sense of urgency from Filho because he may just get behind on the numbers now fighting at the UFC level. But he’s also not a guy who opponents can sleep on standing either, having shown scrappy elements himself if he’s pushed in that type of fight.
Carpenter is still early on his pro career with nine fights and quite a few early finishes, so we don’t have an extensive sample of him on the feet but enough to make a read.
He works in more of a stalking to mid-range kickboxing style. He’s not the highest output guy at 125 but has shown good offensive tools between lead hooks, leg kicks and high kicks where he’s finished two opponents.
We also saw his leg kicks add up in his DWCS fight against Chairez which played a role in slowing him down. However, Carpenter did get off to a slower start in that fight where he struggled with Chairez’s length a bit in jabs and lead hooks – Carpenter got buckled on a few occasions and got his right eye pretty banged up.
But he showed his heart in that fight, going on to win the latter two rounds, and officially outlanded Chairez at distance which is a win that’s aging fairly well. He competed with Ulanbekov standing but the longer linear shots of Ulanbekov gave him some issues there. We saw him struggle with leg kicks a bit in his 3rd pro fight against Medina as well.
But his defense is kind of weird in the sense that he actually slips punches really well, but he can also find himself walking into shots. The striking was pretty competitive in the few minutes on the feet with Rocha where Carpenter slightly outlanded him 20 to 16 at distance.
Overall, I’d like more of a sample before making any definitive claims with Carpenter but he’s a tough guy that’s serviceable on the feet for a base grappler.
How it plays out: Off the top, Filho will realize a slight size advantage of 1” in height and 2” in reach. While both guys aren’t necessarily pace machines, I generally view the stand up as scrappy here but I would side a bit more with Carpenter because I think his general boxing is a bit better and keeps his punches a bit straighter. The kicking dynamic is interesting though because while I lean to also giving Carpenter a kicking edge, he may be a bit more susceptible as well. Still not a strong take though given Carpenter’s defensive issues.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Filho is best as a grappler, repping a BJJ black belt and 10 pro wins via submission.
His wrestling isn’t the best, but it is serviceable for a base jiu-jitsu guy. He primarily excels from the body lock to land trips but is also solid transitionally in being able to advance positions and does well in taking the back – seven wins via RNC.
Defensively, we haven’t seen him on bottom much in the wider past but Mokaev went 4/8 racking up eight minutes of control.
I thought Filho made a decent account of himself as he was able to work out of positions and actually threaten Mokaev with a really nasty knee bar towards the end of the fight – that would have probably tapped like 80% of guys but Mokaev toughed it out. But it was after losing that he got his back taken and submitted.
To me that was more a product of him getting tired than any admonishment on his defensive grappling necessarily. However, he was submitted in his last loss prior in the 3rd round as well so there may be something to it – it was a fight I wasn’t able to view though.
He actually outgrappled Nascimento who’s a quality black belt through the early going of his last fight, but ultimately got outgrappled himself in the back half dropping rounds two and three.
He’s played a bit of guard in certain instances but he’s also a guy that will invert to attack legs to create space/scrambles.
Overall, he’s probably going to struggle still with stronger offensive wrestlers with positional awareness, but he’s of bigger danger to opponents on the mat that don’t come proper.
Carpenter began training wrestling and grappling in his teens where he currently holds a brown belt in BJJ.
Despite that, he’s not a guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes but has mixed the wrestling into most of his fights.
I don’t think his entry wrestling is anything special as it can be telegraphed at times, where he’s eaten some bigger knees, but he’s shown some good entries to the legs where he specifically excels with doubles or singles when he gets in deeper.
However, he doesn’t appear to be a great chain wrestler.
What I like about his floor game the most is when he actually gets into top position.
He’s pretty consistent to pass the guard where he’s strong from half, mount or in taking the back to accrue minutes or finding his RNCs – he even racked up some minutes in round two against Ulanbekov, arguably winning that round but Ulanbekov’s a pretty tough guy to hold down.
Defensively, we’ve only seen him on the bottom in a few instances prior to Ulanbekov.
Most recently, he ultimately got outwrestled by Ulanbekov, getting taken down in each of the three rounds and dropping roughly seven minutes of control – he still didn’t make it easy on Ulanbekov though who’s a solid grappler.
Overall, Carpenter’s ground game looks decent as he definitely has the skillset in both the wrestling and the grappling to expose fighters who don’t come proper at the lower tiers of the weight class. I am a bit more skeptical on his floor upside against a better level of ground fighter though.
How it plays out: The high level analysis is that I think Carpenter has better pure wrestling but Filho has the better jiu-jitsu. That’s also not a strong take in the wresting department though because I think Filho’s offensive wrestling is better than probably most give him credit for. Filho may also be more proactive in terms of shooting here in comparison to Carpenter based on the matchup, which also makes things interesting but I still think Carpenter has good jiu-jitsu as well.
Funky scrap as I like certain attributes of both guys’ games but I also don’t love others necessarily. I slightly lean Carpenter as I like his process/cardio a bit more and feel he has a bit more dog as Filho’s dropped late in multiple spots, but it’s a dicey fight at the same time that I don’t feel strongly about.
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On DraftKings, this one is kind of tough because I slightly lean toward Carpenter to win as well.
He’s just a more well-rounded fighter and the better minute winner on paper. He’s competent enough on the mat to not get dominated on paper, and he probably has an edge standing.
I’m not sold a win for Carpenter means a big DraftKings score though. He’s priced at 8.2k so it won’t take much, but I’m not even sure what game plan Carpenter will use.
If he can score a few takedowns and earn top control time, he can come away with a good score. Or maybe he can hurt Filho. Carpenter is only +350 to win ITD though.
In theory, this isn’t a great spot for Carpenter on DraftKings in relation to his upside. I do still think he has paths, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a semi-competitive decision where most of his work came on the feet, and therefore, he’d likely bust.
Filho has more upside in that if he wins, grappling surely has to be involved.
He’s also +210 to win ITD which I had to do a double take because that’s far better than Carpenter’s line, and I’m not sure I agree with the spread.
I do think if Filho can land a bunch of takedowns, he has finishing equity, but I’d be a little surprised to see him finish Carpenter who is tough and still quality on the mat.
In Filho’s wins, he’s scored 105 and 114, though both came with early submissions. HIs ITD metrics here indicate he still has a decent shot at a finish.
On paper, Filho is the better target due to grappling dependency and finishing upside. He’ll rate out as a solid secondary target at 8k.
I guess I just want to note again that Filho beating Ode Osbourne means nothing in comparison to Carpenter. This is a big step up on paper. I’m open to the idea that he can still win and think he’s a fine DK target for the reasons explained above, but I’m not necessarily “high” on him in this matchup and wouldn’t want to be much above the field.
Carpenter is my pick to win but there’s reason to be skeptical about his DK ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Carpenter by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen
Fight Odds: Petrino -290, Petersen +239
Odds to end ITD: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Petrino 9.1k, Petersen 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After a successful heavyweight debut a few months back against Austen Lane, Vitor Petrino will continue his UFC heavyweight run this weekend against Thomas Peterson.
Petrino is 12-2 professionally and knocked out his Contender Series opponent to book his ticket to the UFC. He then won his UFC debut against Anton Turkalj. He landed 7 takedowns in that fight but surrendered 5 as well. He then submitted Marcin Prachnio in round three after landing 4 takedowns in that matchup.
He then knocked out Modestas Bukauskas after consolidating some top position earlier in the fight. He kind of beat up Tyson Pedro and landed 3 takedowns in that fight as well. He most recently took down and submitted Austen Lane.
Obviously, Petrino had some stumbles recently. I chalk the submission loss to Smith as whatever. Petrino dove in for a shot and just got guillotined. I think it was more random than anything. The knockout loss to Jacoby wasn’t great. However, the fight was tied up 1-1 after two rounds and was extremely competitive. The fight was on the table for anyone to win in round three. I still have some hope for Petrino.
Petrino is a good athlete and a big strong guy. He is clearly dangerous early and can knock people dead. He generally wins fights by early knockout. I think he can hurt people at this level. Petrino also will try to land takedowns, and I do think he can take down average UFC fighters and ride out top position and threaten with submissions. He lands 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes which is very good.
Petrino is just very green though. He doesn’t always throw a ton of strikes and I worry about his volume at times. I have also seen him hit and hurt before and he was obviously knocked out by Jacoby. I have also seen him taken down and get his back taken. So this guy isn’t perfect.
Petrino is physical and tough though, and I think that will carry him at these early stages of his UFC career, especially at Heavyweight. Petrino is also young at 28 years old and athletic so I do think he can make improvements. So he is a pretty interesting prospect especially at HW which doesn’t have a ton of depth or talent.
For now, I consider Petrino dangerous and knock out capable early, but he probably has low volume over the course of 15 minutes. He can also land takedowns at this level and his cardio does seem decent too. I think he is a guy to at least keep an eye on as he does have some upside.
Petrino will be taking on Thomas Petersen who is now 2-2 in the UFC against subpar competition. Petersen is kind of a mediocre wrestler boxer.
I actually consider Petersen not bad as a wrestler. He landed 9 takedowns in his last fight against Don’Tale Mayes. He also landed a couple of takedowns against Mohammad Usman. He has actually landed a takedown in all of his UFC fights so far. I do think Peterson will continue to outwrestle and control below average competition at this level.
Petersen is a very average striker. He is competent but not good either. He was outstruck 65-58 against Jamal Pogues which was a bad look. He outlanded Mohammed Usman 76-63. So yea, he is basically striking competitively with the low end fighters of this division. I still don’t think he is bad and he has some decent boxing. He just isn’t going to exactly climb this division with his striking either. Petersen has been knocked out twice and one was against Shamil Gaziev. I also just don’t think he has much power either.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually do think Petersen could have some success here. Petrino is raw and was taken down 5 times against Anton Turkalj a few years back. Petersen is actually a decent wrestler, and I could see Peterson landing some takedowns here and stealing a round or something, which could make this fight interesting. Petrino also lacks offense at times so maybe that could make the fight close too.
The issue is Petersen kind of has to be perfect here. I think Petrino is way more dangerous on the feet and has a durability advantage. If these guys are striking, the minutes could be close but I just feel like Petrino could knock Petersen out at any point. Petrino is also young and improving so I am not completely buying that Petersen can comfortably outwrestle Petrino for 15 minutes with no defensive wrestling resistance. So my guess is that Petrino will get some striking time and land something big at some point. Petrino may look to land takedowns himself too although I am not sure how successful he will be.
So I am going to go with Petrino just because he has so much more danger in his game and at heavyweight that generally matters a lot.
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On DraftKings, Petrino is a decent upside target at 9.1k.
Petersen is a solid wrestler but he could be in danger both to submissions, and to strikes any time the fight takes place standing. Petrino is somewhat dangerous and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hurt Petersen at some point.
Petrino is -130 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and if you’re going to play him, that’s the primary reason why. He has finishing equity, and if he wins ITD, he can score 100 points or more.
This does feel like a boom or bust target though. Takedowns are possible for Petrino but far from guaranteed. I wouldn’t bet on a lot of striking volume. He simply needs a finish.
I’m willing to target Petrino at this price tag. I don’t have a ton of confidence he’ll blow Petersen out of the water but an early TKO is very much on the table. At 9.1k, he saves some salary off the top end and I’d consider him a solid secondary tournament option with upside.
Petersen at 7.1k is OK.
He will shoot for a lot of takedowns, so if he wins, he’ll score well. He just landed 9 takedowns and scored 126 DK points. His other UFC win scored 77 though.
I don’t think this is a great matchup for Petersen honestly. He’s just not very dangerous, so 1-2 takedowns here probably won’t mean much. He’s only +425 to win ITD.
Simply given the idea that Petersen is capable of a few takedowns, and Petrino might give them up, Petersen is viable. But he’s still only a low-end target and I wouldn’t expect him to win.
I may mix in Petersen due to pricing and grappling potential but I’ll likely be relatively light with exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrino by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Bia Mesquita vs. Irina Alekseeva
Fight Odds: Mesquita -549, Alekseeva +420
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Mesquita 9.6k, Alekseeva 6.6k
Weight Class: 135
As a submission grappling fan, I’m excited to see the debut of Bia Mesquita who will take on Irina Alekseeva this weekend.
Mesquita is 5-0 professionally at age 34, and she trains out of American Top Team. She’s a super credentialed BJJ player and has a laundry list of accomplishments in the BJJ world, including becoming a 6x IBJJF World Champion, a No-Gi World Champion and an ADCC World Champion.
Even as recently as 2024, Mesquita was having success at ADCC which is the highest level of submission grappling, and she was getting 2nd and 3rd place results.
She’s as legit as they come from the BJJ world, and that specialty is what will carry her as a professional fighter.
And as a BJJ specialist, her game is what you might expect. She wants to close the distance, take you down, take your back and choke you out. She’s largely succeeded at doing so on the regionals, with essentially all of her wins coming via that method. There’s a TKO via ground strikes mixed in there too, along with a DQ win.
Her weaknesses are what you might expect. She’s not a particularly good striker and is probably a liability on the feet. I wouldn’t want her to strike for long periods of time and I would guess she’d lose to most UFC level strikers.
Her wrestling is only OK. So it’s the transitional game that could really make or break her. She’s certainly good enough to land the occasional takedown, but is she a monster wrestler? Eh, I wouldn’t say so.
But she is excellent at transitioning to the back, and can even do so standing. She’ll lock up a body triangle and it’s mostly over from there. She may only need one takedown to win the fight.
I don’t think Mesquita is a future champion because she’s still semi one-dimensional, but her grappling is legit and she can definitely beat the mid and lower tiers of the division there.
Alekseeva, a.k.a “Russian Ronda” won her UFC debut in April against Stephanie Egger, submitting her with a kneebar in round one, but she’s since dropped her last two against Melissa Dixon and Klaudia Sygula.
Alekseeva marched forward in that debut and brawled early, showcasing some nice strength and aggression. Egger then had a standing body lock on her, and Alekseeva chose to roll into a kneebar attempt, locking it up shortly thereafter.
Against Dixon, Alekseeva was able to land a big shot early, but ultimately got controlled on the mat for seven of the final 10 minutes and lost the fight.
Against Sygula, I was actually high on Alekseeva and thought she had a great chance to showcase her ground game and win by submission. Instead Sygula outboxed her, and also took her down late in the fight to earn a few minutes of control.
Alekseeva is now 5-3 professionally and desperately needs to return to the win column.
Entering that debut, I was not particularly high on Alekseeva. Alekseeva had her back taken and was nearly submitted in her one loss in 2019. I didn’t think she rated out particularly well as a wrestler or striker.
But clearly, she’s a threat in some regard. Though I am going to be very cautious about her round winning ability on the feet, Alekseeva is willing to brawl, and she can throw with power. That gives her some ability to hurt opponents, or simply break them with pressure.
She comes from a Judo background though and her grappling can still be a strength. She is decent in the clinch, and can definitely beat weak grappling opponents.
However, I don’t love her pure wrestling ability, and her submission grappling seems inconsistent. Those leg locks are dangerous but you know my stance on them by now – it’s not a technique I love in MMA and those who train defense shouldn’t have many problems avoiding the attack. Those who do not train the defense, however, could get their legs snapped.
In terms of this matchup, Mesquita is a far superior grappler, and should have a distinct advantage on the mat.
If she’s able to get on top of Alekseeva, she will likely take the back and finish the fight. Alekseeva has survived with opponents on her back thus far but they don’t have the same finishing ability as Mesquita.
Conversely, Alekseeva is a more dangerous striker, and I would favor her on the feet. Not only is she more seasoned, but she’s huge, standing 5’8” with a 67-inch reach. Mesquita is only 5’4”.
There’s definitely a part of me that worries Mesquita will be outmatched in physicality here. Alekseeva is willing to brawl, and hits hard, and if Mesquita can’t close the distance, she could be in trouble.
She definitely will try, and I’m guessing Mesquita will eventually find the takedown. It could come quickly. From there, it may not be an immediate finish but she probably controls the rest of the round or finds the RNC.
Overall, I have to take Mesquita to get her hand raised given the defensive issues we’ve already seen from Alekseeva. I’ve also been disappointed recently by some debuting grapplers and we know their faults – this matchup still has some binary elements to it – though I’m pretty hopeful Mesquita can get the job done.
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On DraftKings, Mesquita is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k, and I like her for finishing equity.
The fight itself is -250 to end inside the distance and Mesquita is -210 to win ITD, which is pretty strong. She’s extremely capable of winning by submission and with any dominant position, it’s a pretty reasonable guess to make that she’ll get the tap.
I do have some concerns about her top end ceiling though. One takedown and a sub may not even be enough for 100 points. She’s not a high volume wrestler either.
We could get the opposing side of the coin where Mesquita lands an early takedown, gets mount immediately, and then lands ground-and-pound for four minutes before getting the finish. So there are clearly paths to a big score.
At 9.6k though, I don’t think Mesquita is a lock to be optimal even with a finish, and that concerns me. If you simply cannot afford her, that’s fine, and there’s others priced below with strong finishing equity as well.
I do like Mesquita outright and I expect a good result and a good score, but I’m not convinced she’s a stand out at her price. I’ll pay up for her some and I’d like exposure, but starting a lineup with Alvarez or Walker as examples is totally fine as well.
Alekseeva is priced down to 6.6k and she’s semi-viable.
Clearly she’s not a great play, and she’s a big dog at +450 to win with a +800 ITD line. She has zero floor and probably just gets outgrappled.
If she gets a striking fight though.. I’d expect her to win. And she does enough damage that she could hurt Mesquita. It would be a leap of faith, but it’s still one potential outcome.
There’s really no way to prioritize her and I won’t end up with much or any exposure to her with a smaller portfolio, but I don’t hate the idea of a small sprinkle in larger fields with the leverage against Mesquita as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mesquita by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll
Fight Odds: Rocha -118, Nicoll +101
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Rocha 8.5k, Nicoll 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
Both Lucas Rocha and Stewart Nicoll will be looking for their first UFC win on Saturday, and neither fighter feels particularly trustworthy.
Nicoll is now 8-1 professionally, and he’s earned four wins by KO and three by submission. He had been fighting in a pretty weak Australian regional promotion before coming to the UFC, where he was the champion.
What I see from Nicoll is a very basic grappler, and likely someone who is dependent on takedowns and control. More specifically, Nicoll likes to shoot in on the hips, move to the back and finish from there. Most, if not all of his TKO wins are from ground-and-pound via back mount.
While that’s a good type of fighting process, I am not sold that he’s some sort of elite wrestler and will be easily able to get past UFC level competition. He doesn’t look like an elite athlete to me, and I worry that if he doesn’t get on top, he won’t really have any additional paths to victory.
So it’s worth noting that he just hasn’t been fighting great competition, and he hasn’t faced much adversity. I like some of what I see, but I am taking it with a grain of salt.
For example, the one time I saw him get reversed on a takedown shot, he didn’t look great off his back. He might be vulnerable there defensively too. I just don’t have a ton of faith in the depth of his game at this moment, but his offensive grappling and process is fine.
In his UFC debut, Nicoll pulled off an excellent scramble to take the back of Jesus Aguilar in the opening minute, but couldn’t hold the position. He shot in for another takedown and Aguilar jumped on the guillotine and choked him unconscious.
Aguilar can be a bit tricky, but I certainly didn’t learn much from that debut, and it’s difficult for me to reassess Nicoll’s game moving forward. I do think he’s a semi-crafty grappler with upside on the mat, but I do worry he’ll be limited to the ground attack and will still only be able to compete with mid-low level competition.
Lucas Rocha had a tough debut as well, where he was outclassed and choked out in the second round by Clayton Carpenter.
Rocha is mostly a Thai striker, and someone who will benefit from big moments, rather than consistently winning minutes.
He’s earned 10 wins by knockout, including an impressive one on DWCS where he had been outgrappled for the entirety of the first round, before connecting with a knee to begin the second.
I’ve also seen him knocked out cold, and it doesn’t appear as though he’s particularly strong on the defensive end.
Rocha is basically just a mid-low level striker, who can be dangerous in bursts. He can punch and kick a little bit, and he can win by knockout. He will get outclassed by more technical opponents and his defense is a mild issue as well.
Rocha also has a purple belt in BJJ though I don’t think he’s a particularly strong grappler.
His first level takedown defense is pretty weak, and he will give up his back. To his credit, he can be scrambly at times, and on DWCS for example, he did well to survive and force his opponent to work early, though he yielded five takedowns.
Carpenter is a solid fighter who ultimately sunk in the RNC in the second round, so Rocha can be finished.
To me, Rocha is the type who can hang on and survive, at best. Good wrestlers shouldn’t have too many problems with him. But he’s not incapable on the mat and is an OK scrambler at least.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t feel confident in either side.
Part of me wants to take a flier on Nicoll, who I trust more in terms of process. Nicoll should go out there and shoot takedowns, and he might be able to get the back of Rocha. If he can, he might be able to finish.
Rocha will surely have to scramble and defend early, though it’s realistic he will survive. I’d have to favor him as the more dangerous striker, and he may have real knockout equity.
It’s a little tough because Nicoll doesn’t spend much or any time at distance, so we don’t have a lot to work with. Maybe he would just fold immediately to pressure if he can’t land takedowns, or maybe he can pressure so urgently that he can break guys like Rocha over the duration.
My guess is this one ends inside the distance, either with Nicoll scoring a back take and finish, or with Rocha hurting him along the way.
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On DraftKings, I am interested in this matchup for that reason, and I’m not surprised to see the overall ITD line sitting at -200.
Rocha is priced at 8.5k and feels more boom or bust, given his style. He probably needs a knockout, and I worry if the fight extends, he won’t accrue a ton of points.
He is +120 to win ITD though, which is pretty strong, and I’d label Rocha a solid secondary option with finishing equity on this slate.
Nicoll at 7.7k carries more upside in my mind given his fighting style, and he’s also a slight value as his betting line is trending in his direction. He’s my preferred play because of that, but really, there’s no reason to have any confidence here.
If you want to split your exposure or lean toward Rocha, that’s perfectly fine.
My guess is that neither side will be super popular, just given the low-level nature of the matchup and both fighters coming off ugly losses. We could see both undervalued because of it.
So honestly, I wouldn’t mind being overweight to this fight as a whole. Nicoll may get a bit more attention as a grappling value play, but his upside seems legit if he actually pulls off the win. Rocha has a tougher window but solid finishing metrics nonetheless.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nicoll by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman
Fight Odds: Walker -306, Usman +251
Odds to end ITD: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Walker 9.2k, Usman 7k
Weight Class: HW
THIS FIGHT HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CANCELED WITH USMAN OFF THE CARD. I WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY HERE AND IN DISCORD.
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
If Valter Walker gets his fourth heel hook victory in a row vs Mohammed Usman this weekend, I may actually jump off a bridge.
The reason this is driving me nuts is because the heavyweight division is so bad. The fact that Walker can win by heel hook three times in a row just shows how bad this division actually is. That would never work in the lighter weight classes where they actually have skill. I don’t even hate Walker either. I just can’t believe this keeps working for him more than anything. After this rant, maybe I will just root for the heel hook to land because it would be pretty funny and you all can make fun of me.
Anyway, Walker is a Brazilian fighter who is 27 years old and is a towering presence at 6’6” with an 81-inch reach. He is actually the brother of UFC veteran Johnny Walker. He is 13-1 professionally, generally fighting poor competition on the regionals. He is 3-1 in the UFC. His three wins have randomly both come by heel hook in round one against Don’Tale Mayes, Junior Tafa, and Kennedy Nzechukwu.
Walker is kind of a pressure fighter / grappler. I actually think he has a pretty good double leg for a heavyweight. He is somewhat explosive with his level change and he is capable of landing takedowns and holding top position. His cardio looks okay but not great. I do think he can land takedowns at this level though, especially early in fights.
He also just pressures decently to put his opponents close to the cage to make it easier for him to land takedowns. He is landing 5.43 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good.
I still don’t think Walker is that great of a submission grappler though. He only has five submission wins on his resume, and I really think his last few heel hook wins were more of a product of Mayes, Tafa, and Kennedy being terrible more than anything. I haven’t seen Walker tested too much as a grappler defensively.
On the feet, Walker can pressure and land some shots in close quarters. He has some decent power in close range. He isn’t a skilled striker though, and I think he is a borderline liability on the feet in extended fights. He lost his UFC debut in a close decision to Lukasz Brzeski by losing the striking exchanges. He got outlanded 55-23 at range by Brzeski, and I just thought his striking looked pretty bad.
Overall, Walker just looks like a guy who can probably bully grapple below-average heavyweights in the UFC. He will also just probably be dangerous early in fights in general. I question his ability to strike in extended exchanges though and he doesn’t look like the most technical fighter in the world. I do think his wrestling can win him some fights though. How often his heel hook lands will honestly be a difficult thing to project. It is not a win condition I can dismiss. However, I don’t think it is a win condition people should rely on happening either.
Walker will be taking on Mohammed Usman. Unfortunately, Mohammed Usman did not inherit the fighting skills of his brother Kamaru Usman. He isn’t terrible, especially for a heavyweight, but he is clearly not as talented as his brother.
Anyway, Usman fought in random regional promotions like PFL before making his way to TUF where he won the season by defeating Zac Pauga by random knockout in round two of the finale.
Usman is kind of just a wrestle boxer. He comes from a wrestling background, and I consider his wrestling okay. It isn’t great, but he is a decent heavyweight and has a decent understanding of positioning on the mat. He can definitely beat heavyweights with grappling holes in their game.
Sometimes he doesn’t always wrestle though. I have seen him not wrestle at all in fights and then wrestle tenaciously in others. So it is a bit of a guessing game to determine what his gameplan will be. I also guess Usman has okay cardio.
As a striker, Usman isn’t good and I don’t think his volume has always been strong. However, he does have a little bit of power and is an okay athlete. Still though, he only lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.27 in return. So I can’t trust his striking too much. I do think he has improved though and he can outwork bad strikers over the course of 15 minutes like he did in his last fight against Hamdy Abelwahab.
Usman is just whatever. He has decent cardio for a heavyweight and can kind of wrestle and kind of strike. I don’t think he is particularly good at anything though.
As far as this matchup goes, I am doing it again… I am going to pick against Walker which means Usman will definitely get heel hooked in under a minute.
It seriously doesn’t take much to stop these heel hooks and I really do think it is possible Usman can. Usman has a strong wrestling and positioning base and he is explosive and physical. I just wouldn’t be surprised if Usman negated that path to victory. It is hard for me to be sure either way here though.
What I do know is if Walker doesn’t win by heel hook, I think he is in serious danger of losing this. Walker isn’t that good of a wrestler and Usman is hard to take and hold down. I just think Walker will struggle taking and holding Usman down consistently. Usman may honestly just take Walker down and get top position himself.
If Walker can’t ground Usman or heel hook him, Walker will be forced to strike where I mildly favor Usman based on cardio and experience. Walker seriously looked awful on the feet vs Brzeski. Usman should be at an advantage over the duration on the feet. Maybe Walker lands some good early shots but I don’t trust him other than that.
Usman could easily win this. He just needs to not get heel hooked in the first minute. So beware of this fight and parlaying Walker. This has upset written all over it.
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On DraftKings, Walker has now posted three big scores in a row at 122, 98 and 112, and it’s hard to deny his finishing ability in this weak HW division.
Walker is priced at 9.3k this week and is -130 to win ITD. I’m not particularly fond of Usman though I did cash on him in his last fight at a decent plus number. I was also pretty high on Nzechukwu last time out versus Walker.
Basically.. who knows. Walker might get a quick sub, or he might not. I certainly don’t think these results will last for much longer but Usman is a pretty mid fighter and I have zero idea of his level of leg lock defense.
Walker at least carries upside. Decent finishing metrics. It makes sense to have some exposure here. If he projects to be very popular, I wouldn’t mind being underweight though because he’s very arguably ultra boom or bust and I don’t want to get caught chasing the dragon.
Usman at 6.9k feels like an OK target.
I do think he can win, and I’ll debate picking him to win. I’m not sold on his upside though, and he’s coming off a win that scored 64 DK points. His other UFC wins scored 81, 79 and 85, which is better.
Usman is only +550 to win ITD here and won’t carry any floor. He’s a big risk because of that.
I can get behind the idea that if he simply survives the first couple of minutes, he’s the live favorite. However, it still may be a close fight where he throws 10 jabs at distance and squeaks out a 29-28.
I will have exposure to Usman due to his price and the binary elements of the matchup. He shouldn’t be super popular. I still only consider him a low-end target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Usman by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Fight Odds: Polastri -456, Kowalkiewicz +358
Odds to end ITD: +285
DraftKings Salaries: Polastri 9.4k, Kowalkiewicz 6.8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a bit of a crossroads fight here for Karolina Kowalkiewicz here as she will take on Julia Polastri this weekend.
Karolina is essentially a volume striker who likes to keep fights standing and outland her opponents to decision wins.
Karolina lands 5.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.51 in return. She defends strikes at 57 percent. She is an average striker in this division, and I do respect her ability to land consistent volume. She has some decent speed and has good combination work.
Karolina only lands 0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes but she is capable of landing a takedown here and there, and landed two in her matchup against Silvana Gomez Juarez. I still don’t expect her to win fights with her offensive grappling going forward and think she will generally be reliant on winning striking fights. However, she can still probably win some rounds here and there with a takedown against low tier grapplers.
Karolina defends takedowns at 74 percent and generally has decent TDD. She was taken down and submitted by Jessica Penne which was a disturbing loss. So I don’t completely trust her defensive grappling but she is at least somewhat competent as a defensive wrestler.
My biggest issue with Karolina is just that she is past it. She will be 40 years old a few days after Saturday. She has also gotten beat up a lot in recent years and has clearly declined with her athleticism. She also just isn’t the most impactful striker either as she doesn’t land hard. She really struggles when her opponents are just more physical and heavier hitters than her.
Karolina will be taking on Julia Polastri. Polastri is a Brazilian fighter who is 13-5 professionally. She made her UFC debut against Josefine Knutsson and lost a decision by generally losing the striking exchanges. Knutsson is a decent prospect and a good volume striker though so I don’t fault her much for that loss.
Polastri’s most recent win came against Cory McKenna by split decision. She basically beat McKenna on the feet and outlanded her 88-40 in significant strikes. She really dominated the first half of that fight in the clinch. However, she was taken down in round three by McKenna and lost that round. She then lost a close decision to Loopy Godinez where she got behind early but rallied back late.
Polastri has also had two Contender Series fights. She lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius a few years back by getting outgrappled which is a forgivable loss. She then won by submission against Patricia Alujas to book her ticket to the UFC.
Polastri is a bit of a freestyle fighter. On the feet, she is competent and okay. She can mix in some punches and kicks and is pretty tough too. She has a decent front kick to the body too. She has some mild power. She can fight at an occasional high pace which she did against Patricia Alujas, and landed a ridiculous 58 significant strikes in the first round.
I still think Polastri is a bit basic on the feet though and can be hit plenty herself. She is just kind of okay as a striker. She is physical though and I do think she is good in the clinch and in close quarters.
Polastri can grapple a bit too. She can land some occasional takedowns and she seems competent in top position. She has a few submission wins in her career and I consider her competent on the mat.
Defensively as a grappler, Polastri is okay and defends takedowns at 58 percent. Good grapplers can take her down and hold her down but she is not a fish out of water on the mat and has some physicality. She can use that physicality to defend the occasional takedown and work to her feet.
As far as this matchup goes, I think these girls will generally strike. Some takedowns may be mixed in by each girl honestly. However, I think the winner of the striking exchanges will win this fight.
I just think it is hard to trust Karolina nowadays. She is still somewhat capable and she is extremely tough as well. However, her physicality and power are just not there. I think Polastri hits harder and that will overall be the difference. I do think Karolina can compete though. I do think she will hang in there and potentially compete on the numerical strike count. However, I just think Polastri will land the more impactful shots which the judges will gravitate towards. So Polastri is the pick for me.
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On DraftKings, this fight is pretty meh and not one I’ll focus on too much.
Polastri is priced up to 9.4k and will likely need a finish. She just hasn’t produced enough offense per fight to make me confident in her ceiling, and this matchup is actually -375 to go the full distance.
So Polastri won’t rate out well on paper, and carries a weak +300 ITD line. Otherwise, you’re hoping for full on grappling domination.
I wouldn’t rule out some takedowns, and Polastri did land three against Knutsson, while also winning by submission on DWCS. So maybe she can submit Kowalkiewicz too.
I don’t think I’m willing to play into that too much though, not with the strength of this surrounding tier. Polastri is just too expensive and will only fall into the contrarian category.
I don’t think she’ll be popular at all so if you want to be different, she is one option, but she’s not an option I’ll gravitate toward often.
Kowalkiewicz is priced down to 6.8k and only really benefits from the cheap tag and the ability to go the distance.
She’ll be cash viable because of it, and probably falls into a similar bucket as Brogan Walker last week, though it’s a different matchup. KK is really lacking win equity here and is only +1100 to win ITD, so really, it doesn’t make sense to invest much here.
I can get behind a tiny bit in smaller fields or floor based games where you simply need a punt. KK can fight for 15 minutes and scoring 30 points is very much in play. Otherwise, I don’t see the merit to investing here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Polastri by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira
Fight Odds: Lacerda -250, Oliveira +208
Odds to end ITD: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Lacerda 8.9k, Oliveira 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Saimon Oliveira’s a Contender Series alum who earned a contract back in 2021 but has been inactive since joining the roster and struggled thus far in his three bookings– he’s 0-3 in the UFC and 18-6 as a pro. Luan Lacerda got the call up to the UFC back in 2023, bypassing the Contender Series. But he’s come up short in his first two promotional bouts and is coming off a 2+ year layoff – he’s 0-2 in the UFC and 12-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Our footage of Oliveira in space is pretty limited. But in the times we’ve seen, he likes to be aggressive, come forward and let his hands fly.
He’s got some pop in his shots with five finishes via KO/TKO and did hurt Alday in his DWCS fight, but I don’t think he’s a gigantic hitter. He’ll throw in combinations but he doesn’t possess much process and tends to be reckless with lots of hooks, overhands, and jumping/spinning attacks.
Defensively, he’ll keep a higher guard at times but won’t move his head off the center line especially when he’s throwing.
The striking in the Alday fight was competitive but he edged it – he got the better of the exchanges against Gravely but Gravely’s a wrestler – Marcos attritionally beat him up finishing to the body – most recently, he struggled finding Martinez and was put down with a right hand.
Ultimately, Oliveira’s not a processed striker and fairly beatable but because he’s wild, opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with him.
Lacerda’s a grappler by base but a decent sized 135er standing 5’7” with a 71” reach.
We only have about 30 minutes of footage on him in the last three years but it’s enough to see that he’s not a very good striker.
He has shown some scrappy elements and will throw to all three levels, but he’s relatively wooden, will push his punches at times and hasn’t shown much in the power department with no pro wins via KO/TKO.
He did compete with Stamann in his debut, getting slightly outlanded 101-80 but was also outlanded to the head 62-31.
The length, speed and linear shots of Blackshear gave him some issues last time out where he was eventually positionally TKO’d – he was also losing the striking exchanges in his last LFA fight to Alves.
So, he’s not good defensively but I also think he’s shown some elements of toughness, granted I can see him taking some further KO losses at this level.
Overall, Lacerda profiles as more of a grappling dependent fighter in the UFC – he’ll be able to compete with certain guys but it’s also a bit tough to project him to win clean rounds standing at this level.
How it plays out: Off the top, Lacerda will realize a 3” height advantage but will be at a 1” reach deficit. The striking’s kind of a mess here and both are sub-par defensive strikers. While Oliveira has shown to be a bit more chinny than Lacerda, Lacerda hasn’t shown any real power. I’d lean more towards Oliveira winning the stand up just because he’s pretty consistent to come forward and is probably more live to hurt Lacerda than the other way around.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Oliveira’s official grappling background but 11 of his 18 pro wins have come via submission.
However, seven of them are by guillotine which is always a red flag to me. He’s got a good squeeze on it but his overall grappling proficiency is highly questionable.
In his last regional loss to Farias, he was taken down multiple times with ease, passed and controlled for over half the fight – losing on the cards.
Then in his debut against Gravely, he got rag dolled on the mat for the better part of 15 minutes. He was able to threaten Gravely with tighter guillotines in that fight as well but Gravely was able to work out of them – in his defense, Gravely was a nightmare debut.
I haven’t seen him land a ton of TDs regionally, but he did go 3/7 against Alday on DWCS and racked up 6+ minutes of control time – really the deciding factor in the fight but Alday was also a striker so take it for what you will.
He recently got shut out by Marcos going 0/5 but Marcos also has really good TDD.
Overall, I’m not the biggest fan of Oliveira as a ground fighter because he’s a sub-par offensive and defensive wrestler and relies so heavily on one submission that just puts him on the bottom against more capable opponents.
Lacerda comes from a jiu-jitsu background where he’s a long time member of the Nova Uniao team and a 3rd degree black belt under Andre Pederneiras.
His MMA wrestling isn’t very good though to be honest as he’s pretty reliant on deep single leg shots or body locks.
That said, he was able to secure individual TDs against both Stamann and Blackshear who are good defensive wrestlers.
His top game is still a bit difficult to assess just given sample but he has shown the ability to create scrambles on the bottom with inversions and can reverse positions from his triangle/armbar/omaplata series – the back take he hit on Alves was pretty slick and is a win that’s aging well considering Alves just won the 135 lb. PFL Championship.
Him fishing for legs is ultimately what got him positionally TKO’d last time out against Blackshear though.
That said, 10 of his 12 pro wins come via submission and from six different methods so in the macro, he’s shown to be dangerous in all positions.
Overall, Lacerda has good jiu-jitsu but he profiles to struggle against better holistic wrestlers going forward.
How it plays out: Despite all the gilly wins for Oliveira, I feel pretty decent about saying that Lacerda is the better grappler here. While I don’t love his wrestling, Oliveria’s TDD mechanics are so poor that I’d project TDs for Lacerda – especially if he can down Stamann and Blackshear. Oliveira’s never been subbed before but I think it’s also important to note that he hasn’t been facing honest submission threats – Alday, Marcos and Martinez are all strikers and Gravely’s a vanilla wrestling grinder. Oliveira will look to scramble and work up but he also makes mistakes doing so where Lacerda could very well capitalize on that.
This profiles as a “loser leaves town” type of matchup as a loss for Oliveira would put him at 0-4 in the promotion and a loss for Lacerda would put him at 0-3 in the promotion. It’s a pretty big mess of a fight to be honest as both guys have clear flaws in their games and are both in their 30s, so they also don’t project for large fight to fight improvements where they probably just are what they are at this point. I’ll take Lacerda for the win because I ultimately feel the biggest gap in the fight is in the jiu-jitsu department.
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On DraftKings, Lacerda is a pretty intriguing target at 8.9k.
He hasn’t necessarily performed well in the UFC but this is a major step down, and he’s now a decent sized favorite near -250 to win, with an ITD line of -175 which is one of the best on the slate.
It’s difficult to feel super confident here, but Lacerda can hopefully land takedowns, and threaten for a sub. Oliveira just isn’t a good fighter.
You’re relying a bit more on hope than I’d like to, but I don’t mind being in on Laceda this week. With two losses in a row, he may not be super popular but his finishing metrics indicate he’s one of the better targets on this slate.
At 8.9k, things might go wrong, but Lacerda can grapple and if he can win ITD, he can contend for the optimal lineup, so I wouldn’t mind being near or overweight to the field.
Oliveira at 7.3k is still a low end target.
Maybe he can hurt Lacerda or maybe he can jump on a guillotine. Otherwise, he probably loses.
He’s only +350 to win ITD and has looked largely incompetent in the UFC thus far. It doesn’t feel good to click on his name.
I do expect him to be low owned for that reason though, and he also may provide leverage against Lacerda. Mixing him in on occasion is fine.
Oliveira has no real floor though and he isn’t processed, so it’s difficult for me to recommend much exposure here despite the matchup in total being relatively low-level.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lacerda by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)