UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (12/13/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape
Fight Odds: Kape -280, Royval +232
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Kape 9.2k, Royval 7k
Weight Class: 125
We’ll get a fun action fight in the flyweight division to end the 2025 MMA season and potentially crown the next title challenger, as Brandon Royval takes on Manel Kape.
Kape is 21-7 professionally at age 32, earning 13 wins by TKO and five by submission. He had an extended run in RIZIN before signing with the UFC in 2020, and has since gone 6-3 in the promotion.
Kape is a kickboxer and a dangerous one at that. He’s fast and explosive, and carries some of the better power in this flyweight division. In his six UFC wins, Kape has earned six knockdowns which is quite impressive, finishing four of those fights by TKO.
Typically, Kape isn’t a high-volume striker, but at times he can be. We’ve seen some of that volume upside in more recent bouts against Silva and Dos Santos, where Kape landed 111 and 112 sig. strikes respectively. When he feels he has an advantage over his opponents, he’s willing to just tee off.
Against more competent fighters though, he’s gone toe to toe with opponents. Pantoja outlanded him 72 to 49 at distance, Nicolau lost a tight striking battle 58-50, and Mokaev actually outlanded him 27-20. Dos Santos actually landed 99 significant strikes too, despite absorbing 112.
So overall I’d consider Kape a decent volume fighter, capable of easily outworking inferior competition. Against quality competition, rounds can be more competitive in which case he’ll be more reliant on the damage factor to get his hand raised.
Defensively, Kape is still defending 57 percent of strikes in the UFC and he’s never been knocked out, which shows some strong durability. He’s not an easy guy to land hard shots on or damage, even if numbers are competitive, and optics are usually in his favor.
As a grappler, Kape’s primary goal is to keep the fight upright. He only lands 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes, and surprisingly, two of his three career takedowns in the UFC came against Pantoja in his debut.
Defensively is where he’s had some more issues, though I think he’s a respectable wrestler in totality. He’s defending takedowns at 81 percent in the UFC. He’s actually a black belt in jiu-jitsu so even off his back, he’s competent.
Still, defensive wrestling is where Kape has struggled at times and it’s been a factor in several of his pro losses. Most recently, Kape gave up three takedowns to Mokaev which played a minor role in the loss.
Kape also gave up two takedowns to Dvorak, and two to Nicolau, and neither of those fighters are strong wrestlers. He is not the best scrambler and ultimately can be taken down, and held down at times while he chooses to play guard. He’s not an extreme liability though and he did defend all six takedown attempts from Almabayev in his last matchup.
Next he’ll take on Brandon Royval, who’s a pure action fighter and volume fighter, and arguably one that specializes in five round fights.
I’ve never been high on Royval as a prospect because he’s not actually technically very good at anything, possibly with the exception of submission grappling. In the UFC for example he’s defending strikes at 43 percent and defending takedowns at 45 percent, which is horrid.
He’s also not a great athlete and doesn’t carry much power. He can’t really wrestle. His fighting process is all screwed up and so ultimately, it’s never easy for me to count on Royval.
Yet here he is, potentially one fight away from competition for the title, which would be his second opportunity. He’s already beaten former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno. How?
The answer is pretty clear to me, and it’s that Royval is an absolute phenom in attempting significant strikes, which is half of the battle. It doesn’t even matter if he’s landing those strikes and oftentimes, he’s not, but he’s attempting so many strikes per minute that he’s ultimately outlanded and outpaced a lot of guys.
It was an eye opener to me that he beat Brandon Moreno over five rounds, who I think is better than Royval at basically every aspect of the game. But while Moreno attempted 211 sig. strikes over five rounds, landing 112 of them, Royval attempted a stunning 510 significant strikes, landing 145 of them.
Sure, Royval only landed 28 percent of his attempts compared to the 53 percent from Moreno, but he landed more in totality because he was attempting MORE THAN 100 sig. strikes per round, for five rounds consecutively.
Then he beat Tatsuro Taira, outpacing him over five rounds despite getting taken down a bunch of times.
And most recently, he lost to the now champion Joshua Van, but he still landed 215 sig. strikes in 15 minutes, attempting 467. That is more than 31 sig. strikes attempted per minute for 15 minutes…
The only reason Royval lost is because Van also landed 204, and landed the harder shots.
Now he faces off with Kape, who I think is very clearly better than Royval from a technical standpoint. Kape should be way better defensively, and he should be landing the harder shots. It’s a pretty easy fight to analyze in the sense that Kape should get off to a lead and probably hurts Royval along the way.
But the other aspect to this is what happens is Kape isn’t knocking Royval down. I’m sure he’ll still land some hard shots, and probably win rounds, but Royval is going to strike with him at distance, and potentially 3x the output of significant strikes over five rounds..
It wasn’t that long ago when Kape beat Felipe Dos Santos, who isn’t very good, in a close three-round fight. Kape hurt Dos Santos early and won, but he lost one of three rounds and ultimately got outlanded 94-92 at distance.
Since then, he’s been fighting these smaller, lower volume guys in Silva and Almabayev who are 5’4” and not really a threat to him on the feet. Royval is 5’9” and he can kick from range, and is the highest action opponent Kape’s fought in his career.
Kape has also not fought five rounds in the UFC, and I have be honest, I’m pretty worried for him if he can’t get off to a significant lead early. While he’s still better than Royval and carries a solid floor, if this fight hits the championship rounds, we could see Royval landing 50+ significant strikes and I highly doubt Kape can match that. It really makes me consider picking Royval to win this fight outright, simply because he can produce more offense than Kape over an extended fight.
Additionally, Royval has more grappling upside. Sure, he can’t wrestle offensively or defensively, so it might not matter. Kape can take him down if he wants. Royval probably can’t.
But in an extended fight, I could see Royval finding some random wrestling success where he’s definitely a more dangerous submission grappler. He just survived Taira fine on the mat so even on the bottom, Royval is probably more dangerous than Kape from the top.
I think Kape needs to produce a career-high for strikes landed, most likely, and probably knock Royval down to win. If he’s fighting close rounds without big damage, he’s liable to lose some over an extended period.
Picking Kape to win is very fair and the most likely outcome on paper, but I do find the dynamics of this matchup interesting and based on Royval’s style, I consider him fairly live to pull off another upset if he can survive big damage.
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On DraftKings, Kape is one of the worst fantasy producers we’ve had in a main event in a while.
The good news for him is that there are only 13 fights on this slate, and he’s now fighting an opponent who will force him to produce action.
I didn’t like Kape in his last main event against Almabayev, and he was a complete bust in a TKO win, scoring only 70 points. The risk is the same here. If he wins by RD 2/3 TKO, Kape might just not land enough strikes to clear 100 points and contend for the optimal.
Even over five rounds, there’s a chance Kape lands like 140 sig. strikes and 85-95 DK points which probably isn’t enough. He doesn’t need to be prioritized for that reason at 9.2k.
Conversely, Kape does have a chance to accrue strikes and knockdowns, and he’s -125 to win ITD which is strong. He also could land 2-3 takedowns simply by attempting, and to release the pressure of Royval, and Royval doesn’t really defend them. Even though Kape probably won’t do much on top, that’s an additional 15 points or so that are up for grabs.
So although I’m not high on Kape necessarily, there are ways for him to reach 110 points via offensive production in a decision. It’s still five rounds. Royval absorbs a ton of offense so in theory, this is a great matchup for Kape to raise his general floor/ceiling production.
At 9.2k, I wouldn’t want to fade Kape completely. I also wouldn’t want to be super heavy on him, and if he’s chalk, it’s not a bad pivot spot.
Ultimately, mild-moderate exposure feels fair given the overall weakness of the slate, and extremely high pace that Royval should set in this matchup.
Royval is priced at 7k and is worth some exposure.
Even in a loss, we could see Royval contend for the optimal. In his last two five round losses, he’s scored 86 and 89 DK points, which is pretty insane. I kind of think if he reaches those marks, he just wins the fight though.
But I do think Royval is live to win based on the matchup analysis, so at worst, he’s a reasonable secondary target with a solid ceiling. It would be fair to consider him a low-end target in the sense he’s a fairly big underdog though.
My guess is that I’ll want to be on Royval more than the public. He’s super cheap and carries a solid floor on paper, on a smaller slate which means less opportunities for underdogs. He’s +550 to win ITD but that doesn’t impact my thought process much as we’d probably prefer an extended fight.
He could still simply lose, and get KOd early, so there’s no reason to lock him in, but at this price point I don’t mind taking a fair number of chances on Royval.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kape by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos
Fight Odds: Vallejos -302, Chikadze +248
Odds to end ITD: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Vallejos 9.1k, Chikadze 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a gunfight here between rising UFC prospect Kevin Vallejos and UFC veteran Giga Chikadze.
Vallejos is an Argentine fighter who is 16-1 professionally and 24 years old.
Vallejos actually fought the extremely popular Jean Silva on the Contender Series in September of 2023. He actually lost a very competitive 29-28 decision and was outlanded 87-71 in significant strikes. Vallejos actually got the better of Silva early but Silva landed the better power shots in the second half of the fight and was rightfully given the decision. That loss aged quite well as Vallejos was able to show off his boxing skills and durability in that matchup.
Vallejos later had a second chance on the Contender Series against Cam Teague. Vallejos dominated Teague and knocked him out in round one. Vallejos showed off his boxing combinations, and threw some fast hands and worked the body very well. The boxing combinations were awesome by Vallejos in that matchup and he relentlessly swarmed Teague to the body when he had him hurt. I always like when fighters attack the body.
Vallejos then made his UFC debut and knocked SeungWoo Choi out in round one. Most recently he outboxed Danny Silva to a decision and won the significant strike battle 90-69.
Vallejos is very much a boxer. I actually like his hands. He has some fast hands and can mix it up to the head and body. He also likes to mix in a low leg kick from the orthodox stance. He has good power as well and 11 of his 16 wins have come by knockout. He is also just tough as nails.
He has never been finished and surviving Jean Silva in a 15 minute striking bout definitely shows that he is tough. I still don’t think he looked all that great against Silva. People are talking about Vallejos as a potential threat to the title and I don’t think that at all. I just think he can be a fun action fighter who can compete competitively against some top 15 guys and probably solidify his ranking around that spot.
Vallejos can grapple a little. He isn’t a skilled grappler, but he is pretty physical and can get some occasional body lock takedowns and ride top position and land ground and pound. He only has a couple submission wins in his career and I don’t consider him a good submission grappler, but he seems to work through the motions a bit and seems competent and positionally sound. I want to see more of his grappling tested though especially defensively.
His defensive grappling is a bit of a mystery to me. However, he defended 8 of 9 takedowns against Danny Silva which is good.
I think Vallejos is a good addition to the UFC and he should be in some fun action fights in general. He can definitely do well on the feet in the UFC.
Vallejos will be taking on Giga Chikadze. Chikadze is mostly a kickboxer, and he definitely has some skills. He lands 3.82 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.48 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 60 percent. He is a technical kickboxer coming from a kickboxing background. He has a wide array of kicks and punches and I consider him dangerous. He definitely has KO power and round winning upside in general.
Chikadze does have some flaws though. He isn’t much of a wrestler and only lands 0.19 takedowns per 15 minutes. So wrestling isn’t really a path to victory for him.
Furthermore, Chikadze is a suspect defensive wrestler. I do think his first layer takedown defense is decent and has improved, and he defends takedowns at a decent 65 percent. However, he hasn’t faced many grapplers, and we have seen him submitted on the Contender Series and dominated in round three by Jamall Emmers. Onama most recently took him down three times as well. I do think above-average grapplers will beat him on the mat.
Lastly, Chikadze’s cardio isn’t great. He slows down. I don’t think it is as big of a deal in three round fights compared to five round fights. However, he usually is less effective towards the end of three-rounders as well.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think the striking could be competitive here. Vallejos has better hands and boxing. I do think Chikadze is a better kicker though and he has a six-inch height advantage on Vallejos. It is possible Chikadze uses that height, keeps range, and has some success on the outside with his kicks. I do think Vallejos can force inside exchanges, make this rough, and win there. I honestly think the striking is competitive where I would mildly favor Vallejos on youth (Chikadze is 37 now) and aggression.
Vallejos also may have sneaky grappling upside. He isn’t a great wrestler but he is capable and Chikadze is a legit fish off his back. I do think Vallejos is capable of mustering up a takedown or two to swing a round in his favor. That extra back pocket takedown upside makes me pick Vallejos here and I think him being a mild favorite makes sense.
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On DraftKings, I’m hesitant to target this matchup.
Fortunately I was off Vallejos in his last fight, and he underperformed from a fantasy sense, landing 90 strikes and two takedowns en route to a 78 point score. It was still a solid performance but at 9.4k it was a bust.
We have the same issue here as Vallejos is priced at 9.1k and probably won’t be optimal unless he knocks out Chikadze. I can see that happening as Chikadze is aging, and Vallejos is dangerous, but Chikadze is super experienced and also doesn’t absorb a lot of strikes.
If this fight goes three rounds, I would expect Vallejos to fall into a similar production range as his last win, and therefore, he’d bust again at 9.1k.
Vallejos is +145 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong. He just seems like a boom or bust play and at 9.1k, I’m probably not willing to take a lot of risks. This isn’t a strong top range though, and pivoting isn’t easy.
I’m not saying that Vallejos is an outright awful target as there is a lot of variance in striking exchanges and Chikadze has been hurt before, but the fight is likely to go the full 15 minute distance at -130 and therefore, Vallejos just doesn’t rate out well.
Chikadze is priced at 7.1k and is a mediocre low-end play.
He doesn’t throw a lot of volume and won’t wrestle. A striking based decision is possible but I doubt he’d score very well while doing so. He doesn’t carry a ton of finishing equity in this matchup at +400 to win ITD and Vallejos seems really tough and durable.
I’m not opposed to mixing in a bit of Chikadze as he can compete here technically, but I don’t love the ceiling on paper and don’t love his finishing chances.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vallejos by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Fight Odds: Oleksiejczuk -210, Almeida +177
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Oleksiejczuk 8.7k, Almeida 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
The UFC will welcome Cezary Oleksiejczuk to the promotion, who will take on Cesar Almeida this weekend.
The younger brother of current middleweight Michal Oleksiejczuk, Cezary trains alongside him out of the Fighting Nerds camp, and holds a 16-3 professional record, earning nine wins by knockout and five by decision.
Oleksiejczuk is a boxer like his brother, and he fights out of the Southpaw stance where he can throw with decent speed and some pop. He won by KO on the Contender Series in 36 seconds to earn his contract.
Most of his professional cage time has come in FEN which is a mediocre Polish organization where he was the champion. A lot of those fights actually went the distance and it was good experience for him to grow.
He also has a ton of amateur fights, and his Instagram bio says he has 100+ amateur fights in MMA, although those aren’t all on Tapology. Regardless, Oleksiejczuk is relatively experienced in terms of cage time compared to the average DWCS winner, which is probably a benefit for him.
I’m still not sold on him as a prospect though. In his most recent decision loss in 2023, he was just taken down and held down, and didn’t look particularly good from his back. He threw up a nice armbar at one point and I believe he’s trained in submission grappling, but I don’t think he’s a great scrambler or wrestler and that probably is a liability in his game.
On the feet, his boxing is solid but I’m not completely sold on it either. He kind of reaches with his punches and I just don’t consider him some elite level talent.
In middleweight, he’s fairly long and definitely has speed in his hands. He can win boxing exchanges and hurt guys. But we’re probably going to see him in competitive fights and I’d guess his ceiling will be limited by his lack of wrestling.
He’s going to take on a very experienced kickboxer here in Cesar Almeida, who is coming off a fun knockout win over Abdul Razak Alhassan in January.
Almeida actually beat Alex Pereira (once out of three times) in kickboxing, and he holds more than 50 pro kickboxing bouts, which shows the degree of his skills. That’s also likely why he’s been set up with some softer matchups where the UFC hopes he can showcase his striking.
But as we know, MMA is a different game and not every kickboxer can climb the ranks as easily as Pereira or Adesanya.
I honestly wish Almeida had more of a BJJ background because that would give me a far better opinion of him than I have currently.
His most obvious flaw entering the UFC was his defensive grappling, which makes sense. He survived an early wrestling attack from Dylan Budka in his UFC debut, but got largely controlled in his most recent loss against Roman Kopylov.
Even in his softball matchup against Ihor Potieira in October, Almeida didn’t look particularly strong and gave up a few more takedowns.
Through five tracked fights, Almeida has given up 14 takedowns with a 60 percent defensive rate. He’s actually survived all four fights, so his scrambling has been decent, but it’s clearly a weakness and he will lose to wrestlers again soon.
As a striker, I haven’t necessarily loved what I’ve seen from Almeida either. I think part of it is that he’s 37 years old and probably past his prime. He’s not extremely active.
Almeida was knocked down by both Kopylov and Alhassan, which isn’t a great look. He didn’t get TKOd by either and came back to KO Alhassan, but I thought he was surely en route to losing that fight early. I worry about his durability a bit generally.
He’s still very solid technically, with some power, and he’s going to be better at kicking distance. Essentially I would just say that he’s going to thrive in striking fights, but he still doesn’t have a huge ceiling and will likely find himself in competitive scraps with lower volume.
Almeida has only landed 58 and 57 sig. strikes in his two fights that have gone the distance in the UFC, and he landed 71 on DWCS.
As far as this matchup, it could be competitive. Almeida is very experienced and isn’t facing a dynamic wrestling threat here, so he probably gets the kickboxing fight he wants.
I won’t project much wrestling on either side but given Almeida’s issues, maybe Oleksiejczuk tries to attempt takedowns. I wouldn’t bet on much success though and these two probably just neutralize each other on the mat.
I still have to favor Oleksiejczuk at distance who is 25 years old and 12 years younger than Almeida. He’s faster than Almeida and probably the more dangerous boxer at distance. He’s also a bit taller and longer than Almeida.
I think Almeida can have more success with his kicks, whereas Oleksiejczuk will have a better shot with his hands. If Almeida gets a slow paced kickboxing fight, he can win it. He could also hurt Oleksiejczuk.
I do favor Oleksiejczuk to come out ahead though, probably by being more active, and I think I’d lean toward him for power/durability at this stage as well.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a standard boom or bust fight and one that needs a knockout to score well.
The fight itself is -250 to end inside the distance which is a positive, though if the fight extends, I would bet on these two landing 80-60 significant strikes in a decision. So there is severe bust risk without a knockout.
Oleksiejczuk is priced at 8.7k and is dependent on a knockout. He’s -115 to win ITD which is fine and I do think he has a shot at it, given Almeida’s durability question marks.
This isn’t necessarily a spot I’d want to bet on, but on a short slate, I can at least see the path to a ceiling which is nice. I don’t mind mixing Oleksiejczuk in as a secondary target but he’d be hard to trust with a lot of exposure and he’s totally willing to compete past the first round.
Almeida is priced at 7.5k and is a mediocre low-end target.
A striking based decision isn’t going to score super well, and it’s tougher to bet on a knockout. He’s +300 to win ITD which is fine.
For the price, he at least presents an upside case on paper. He’ll get the fight he wants. There’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges and I doubt he’ll be popular.
I’m just not that high on the particular outcome so I’d only consider him a mix-in for large fields, but not a real priority.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charriere
Fight Odds: Charriere -110, Costa -107
Odds to end ITD: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Costa 8.2k, Charriere 8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun action fight here between Melquizael Costa and Morgan Charriere.
Costa is now 23-7 professionally and fights out of Brazil. Standing out of the Southpaw stance, Costa likes to come forward and strike. He is aggressive and he likes to use his rear kick to the body. He is basically always throwing his rear kick and will also use it to the head.
Costa has a good kicking game. He can also fight going backwards and has decent hands as well. I was actually impressed by his defense against Lingo as well. He controlled range well in that fight.
I generally think Costa is a pretty decent striker and will compete just fine in striking fights. I consider him moderately dangerous with pretty good cardio. He controls range well and when he can keep opponents in kicking range he thrives. The way Costa wilted against Garcia was at least a bit concerning. However, Garcia is showing to be very tough to deal with and Costa has won four since, looking decent too.
On the mat, Costa has some BJJ and wrestling in his game offensively, but he isn’t a great defensive grappler. Thiago Moises took him down four times and eventually submitted him. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke also took down and controlled Costa. Costa scrambles up okay at times, but he needs to work on his defensive grappling.
Costa isn’t an awful defensive grappler, but it is definitely not a strength of his and he will get exposed on the mat again by an above average grappler. I do like Costa’s back taking and body triangling / RNC game. He isn’t a good wrestler or control grappler, but he is tricky with his back takes. Perhaps he has a dangerous guard too as I didn’t expect him to submit Fili like that. I feel like Fili showed poor guillotine defense in that fight though.
Overall, Costa is just a fun action fighter who can generally compete in all areas. I think he will fail against power punchers in boxing range or good grapplers.
Costa will be taking on Morgan Charriere. Charriere is a French fighter who is 21-11-1 professionally and 30 years old. He has a lot of experience. He is a former Cage Warriors champion and is 3-2 in the UFC with his losses coming to Nathaniel Wood by decision and Chepe Mariscal by split decision.
Charriere is basically a well-rounded fighter who is a bit of a power striker with low to medium volume. He is a solid fighter overall, but isn’t elite anywhere and does struggle with volume at times.
As a striker, Charriere is pretty decent. He lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.54 in return. So his striking ratios aren’t great. However, he does hit pretty hard and can make up for it. He has decent boxing in the pocket and can mix in some kicks. However, he is moreso a compact puncher on the inside. I do worry about his volume and he can be outhustled on the feet which he was against Nathaniel Wood. His power can bail him out at times though.
Charriere is also a good defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 83 percent. He is also a somewhat competent offensive grappler and lands 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think he is the best offensive wrestler but he is competent and can take advantage of fighters with holes in their games.
Overall, Charriere is just a well-rounded action fighter with some flaws but no major holes.
As far as this matchup goes, I think the striking is pretty competitive. I do think the volume advantage is on the side of Costa. He just throws more and should have an advantage with his length and kicking game on the outside. I tend to think Costa can get off to a lead especially early and maybe win a clean round if he avoids getting hurt.
I still think Charriere can have success on the feet as well. Charriere likely has a power and durability advantage. I also think Charriere is more dangerous on the inside with his hands. Charriere will have to land power shots here but I do think he is capable. I can really just see either guy having success standing and it looks close.
I don’t think Costa will have a ton of grappling success as Charriere is a strong defensive grappler. Charriere is probably more likely to land takedowns but I don’t think he can dominate on the mat either. So the winner of the striking will probably win this fight.
I am going to slightly lean Costa because I tend to think there will be a minute or two of stretches where he is just scoring volume kicks and getting off to a lead. Costa will have to avoid the power shots to win.
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On DraftKings, I’m pretty concerned that this fight will be too competitive and neither fighter will separate.
The good news is that we should see a decent pace, with 80-100 sig. strikes + a couple of takedowns in play for the winner. Unfortunately, I’m not sure it’s enough. Costa is coming off an 86 point score in a high paced decision, and Charriere hasn’t yet won by decision.
I lean a little more toward the side of Costa winning outright. I like his kicking game better and I think he clearly has more volume upside. I also think he’s a more dangerous submission grappler, so I’m going to pick him to win.
I think Costa can produce a fine floor in a win, and exceed value at 8.2k. But 80-90 points may not be enough and I’m not super sold he can win ITD with a +600 ITD line.
I’m OK with using Costa as a secondary option. He’s flashed upside in the past and is safe to produce some volume. The most likely scenario is probably that he fails to reach 90 points though, so I can’t recommend chasing this one too much.
Charriere rates out better on paper for finishing equity with a +195 ITD line at 8k.
I’ve actually tried targeting against Costa in the past for this reason, as he’s been finished in both of his UFC losses. I still think there is some vulnerability there. However, he’s fought two tough opponents in a row and fared fine, so I’m less interested in chasing that dynamic.
Regardless, Charriere probably needs to produce points to win. He’ll need to hurt Costa, or land some takedowns. His TKO wins have come against really poor competition though, so I’m just not sold he can replicate it here.
I don’t feel great about it honestly, but for the ITD line alone, Charriere is a fine secondary option. I ultimately lean against targeting it heavily.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Costa by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha
Fight Odds: Nzechukwu -128, Buchecha +109
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Nzechukwu 8.5k, Buchecha 7.7k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Oh boy, I have a bad feeling about this one as Kennedy Nzechukwu will be taking on BJJ player Marcus Buchecha.
I say that because I feel like all Kennedy has to do to win this fight is just avoid the grappling of Buchecha, and I do think Kennedy has the tools to do it on paper.
However, I also thought Kennedy should have easily beaten Valter Walker in his last matchup and he just had to avoid a heel hook to win. Of course, Kennedy got heel hooked in under a minute. It was an absolutely pathetic performance by Kennedy. It is not difficult to defend heel hooks. It just showed me that Kennedy didn’t prepare for those positions which shows a lack of professionalism.
Anyway, Kennedy has always shown decent defensive grappling and defends takedowns at 80 percent. He still is pretty green and learning, but he honestly has decent TDD and tries hard to scramble up. He isn’t easy to hold down. I generally think he can stop average grapplers in this weight class. He was held down a little bit against Cutelaba but overall he was able to get up.
I will say that the Walker submission wasn’t caused by getting taken down and flattened out or anything. It was caused by Kennedy getting hurt by a punch and briefly taken down. Kennedy then worked up well and was doing the right thing, and got back to his feet where Walker was in a standing back take position. Walker then rolled for the heel hook. It didn’t show bad defensive wrestling specifically by Kennedy. It was moreso just terrible heel hooked defense and a general lack of awareness of the only threat Walker has. I do think Kennedy is very hard to take and keep flat down.
Usually Kennedy likes to strike in his fights though. He lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.89 in return. I hate that he doesn’t use his reach to his advantage more. He is 6’5” with an 83” reach which is ridiculous. However, he doesn’t really use it to control range or anything. He kind of strikes just relying on pace. He is a bit hittable and only defends strikes at 51 percent.
He kind of just tries to stay aggressive and overwhelm his opponents with pace. I wish he was a little more technical and used his reach a bit better.
Kennedy’s style can still work though, and I think he is just a physical guy and has a knack for finding his target. He is still a bit hittable though and has been knocked out before, but I think he is generally a tough guy to deal with. He will likely be knocked out again though based on his defensively irresponsible fighting style.
Kennedy will be taking on Marcus Buchecha who had an extremely disappointing UFC debut in a decision loss to Martin Buday.
So Buchecha is a world-class and accomplished BJJ player. He was 5-1 going into his UFC debut and he is 35 years old. He ran through a lot of his regional competition as you would expect by taking them down and submitting them. His one loss was against a good opponent who was more physical and a better striker and wrestler than Buchecha.
Going into the Buday fight, I pretty much expected Buchecha to be able to get plenty of UFC heavyweight wins just because he is a decent wrestler, and obviously extremely credentialed and capable on the mat. I mean if Valter Walker can heel hook half of the heavyweight division in under 30 seconds then Buchecha can obviously have grappling success. However, I basically expected Buchecha and still expect Buchecha to lose when he can’t get that game going.
That is basically what happened against Buday as well. Buday is actually a well-rounded generalist fighter with cardio, who actually profiled as a guy who can defend against Buchecha and then take advantage of the holes Buchecha has. That basically happened. Buday was able to outwrestle and outscramble Buchecha at times, and beat him up from top position and outland him on the feet. Buday also had the better cardio.
I think that is how a lot of Buchecha fights will go. He obviously has some striking and cardio issues and is not the best wrestler. So he will lose some fights. However, I do think Buchecha can dominate many guys at heavyweight and make it look easy.
I do think Kennedy has good traditional defensive wrestling in the fact that Kennedy is hard to take and keep down. I also hated how Buchecha sloppily lost position and fell off the back against Buday. I do think Kennedy is also a way better striker and has better cardio. So I honestly think Kennedy can probably avoid getting dominated on the mat and just beat Buchecha up on the feet and over the duration. Kennedy can maybe land GNP from top position too.
I still don’t totally trust Kennedy though. He almost reminds me of Alex Perez where he is so much more capable of what he has achieved but tends to just drop the ball even in fights that he should win on paper. Like Perez, Kennedy can look great in fights but he just finds ways to lose consistently. I don’t think it’s impossible for Buchecha to get an early takedown and get a good position and just quickly finish Kennedy. Kennedy’s loss to Walker was embarrassing and Buchecha is a capable heel hooker too. I do think Buchecha could get this done by submission in the early going.
The thing is though, Walker is a specialist and psychotically goes for heel hooks. Buchecha seems to want to get top position traditionally and then work his game which is something Kennedy has actually always done well defending.
I do think Buchecha could do it early but if it doesn’t result in a quick finish, I don’t think Buchecha can take and hold Kennedy down for 15 minutes. I just feel like Buchecha will clearly get tired and sloppy and probably beat up. So I am picking Kennedy here even though he is a moron.
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On DraftKings, this is a pretty binary fight and one that obviously could produce a strong score for the winner.
It’s possible that if Nzechukwu wins, he lights up Buchecha on the feet and knocks him out. If Buchecha wins, he may smash Nzechukwu on the mat early. For that reason, the matchup is worth getting exposure to and the fight itself is -400 to end inside the distance.
Nzechukwu is priced at 8.5k and a pretty reasonable tournament target. He’s +115 to win ITD and is a solid tournament option.
I do fear a little bit that Buchecha is good enough to survive. He should struggle at range and a late TKO is possible, but he’s durable and experienced enough to potentially extend the fight anyway. So I could see Nzechukwu winning, landing 80 strikes in a decision and not scoring well.
On paper this is still one of the easiest matchups to click on, so I feel bad suggesting it could still fail, but I guess there’s a reason Nzechukwu is still + to win ITD, and the fight is -120 to Over 1.5 rounds.
Regardless I do think it’s worth having exposure to Nzechukwu but I wouldn’t necessarily lock him in with a win.
Buchecha at 7.7k may honestly be my preferred target because I definitely think he’d contend for the optimal in a win.
The issue of course is he might lose, and I thought he underperformed in his UFC debut. It’s hard to feel confident in him winning here and I probably will pick him to lose.
It’s more about the DK side of things where a win for Buchecha very likely comes ITD on the mat. He’s +145 to win ITD he could definitely land a takedown or two, earn control and land ground-and-pound. So in a win, I think Buchecha has pretty solid upside.
You can still consider him a secondary target only because he might simply lose and look poor in an extended fight. No reason to be confident. Given the upside and the binary nature of the matchup, I don’t mind taking chances with Buchecha though, especially if the field is scared off due to his last fight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nzechukwu by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson
Fight Odds: Robertson -200, Lemos +169
Odds to end ITD: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Robertson 8.8k, Lemos 7.4k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Amanda Lemos came into the UFC back in 2017 at 135 lbs. where she lost her debut to Leslie Smith. But she returned from a 2-year hiatus in 2019 down at strawweight and has since established herself as a top 10 girl in the division – she’s 9-5 in the UFC and 15-5-1 as a pro. Gillian Robertson also came into the UFC back in 2017 via The Ultimate Fighter show and is a girl who had to grow up in the promotion with only 5 fights at the time. Naturally, she’s had some bumps along the way but is now 5-1 since moving down to 115 lbs. and is entering her career prime at 30 years old – she’s 13-6 in the UFC and 16-8 as a pro.
The striking component:
Lemos is an interesting fighter.
Because of her history at 135 lbs. and general genetics, she’s very strong for the 115 lb. weight class.
Her output is on the lower end at 2.7 SLpM and 4.4 DLpM, which are below the divisional averages but she’s accurate landing at 55% and 49% respectively and makes her strikes count. Her main core competency is that she hits incredibly hard for the weight class and is a strong kicker.
In that, she’s scored 6 knockdowns in her last 12 fights which puts her #1 in knockdowns in the division’s history.
However, her defense isn’t great as girls can land on her when they come forward or look to counter with straight shots – 45% significant strike defense and 57% distance defense although she’s still not eating higher numbers of strikes in the aggregate because her power can deter volume.
Her first extended fight at 115 came against Mizuki – a fight in which Lemos outlanded her and landed the bigger shots but Muzuki also landed at 60% overall and 50% at distance.
Her 2nd extended fight came against Hill where she was able to take the 1st round with a KD, but the rest of the fight was competitive and I personally thought Hill did enough to win the last two rounds – Hill was able to land at a 45% clip and hurt Lemos as well.
We obviously didn’t see much in the Andrade fight because it ended shortly. Against Waterson, the exchanges were competitive where Waterson landed the better kicks, but Lemos landed the bigger shots despite being outlanded 29-20.
Very little happened in the Rodriguez fight striking wise until Lemos clocked her early in the 3rd round – she did lose the 1st round standing though on 2 cards. She got outlanded at distance 50-23 by Zhang and got dropped in the 3rd round.
More recently, she by and large beat Dern up on the feet but also ate some clean shots herself and came on stronger late against Suarez.
In general, she can use her best tools at range and falls into the sniper category.
Overall, Lemos’ power automatically gives her a good striking floor, but I don’t think she’s looked all that impressive in totality when she’s started fighting better strikers.
Robertson is a grappler by base and despite this being her 8th year on the active roster, her striking hasn’t evolved to the point of where it really needs to be as she’s relatively slow, doesn’t have power and is hittable at space.
In that, she’s really struggled to establish consistent striking success in the UFC. She did land a healthy number of strikes against Aldrich though and did fair a bit better against Rodriguez and Ricci than I thought she would.
Only 38% of her overall fight time is spent at distance which isn’t vast, but she has a negative distance differential of –1.5/minute.
What she is landing often tends to be junk kicks to the leg or body or arm punches.
Her optics also tend to be poor as her reactions to shots aren’t great despite only being KO’d once in her career by Maycee Barber.
Ultimately, she’s only 30 years old so there is still margin for improvement and I do feel we’ve seen some since her debut in 2017 but she’s a sub-par striker as it relates to the middle-upper tiers of the UFC.
How it plays out: Despite Lemos’ lacking volume metrics and having struggles with some better strikers, the stand up should be largely one way traffic with her. Robertson just hasn’t shown she clearly outstrike anyone standing of this level and there’s an obvious power dynamic where if Robertson gets stuck at space for larger swaths of time, she’s going to eat big shots and will be liable to getting knocked out.
The wrestling/grappling component:
The footage of Lemos on her back was pretty limited prior to her outing against Zhang.
Lemos has shown to dig underhooks very well but in reality, she only had to stuff one true TD in roughly 30+ minutes of cage time prior to the Hill fight. Hill only went 1/7 on TDs but was still able to get in on her hips and win in the clinch control scenarios.
We saw Waterson hit a nice TD at space and accrue roughly a minute of control, but Lemos also swept her.
Zhang went 6/7 on TDs and got 16 minutes of control time and beat her up badly on the ground. Dern found top time in rounds 1 and 3, winning the 3rd but the shots Lemos landed in the 1st nullified the Dern 1st round control time – she was controlled for 6 minutes in totality of that fight.
Jandiroba only went 1/5 on TDs but racked up 6.5 minutes of control through the first 2 rounds before eventually finding an armbar from the back. I was impressed with how Lemos fought off the RNC attempts of Jandiroba though who’s one of the best jiu-jitsu girls in the division.
Most recently, she held Suarez to only 3 TDs on 12 attempts putting up resistance but it was ultimately futile where she still conceded 9.5 minutes of control, dropping the first two rounds.
Offensively, she went 4/4 on TDs in the UFC pre-Hill and looks good on top.
She had some control against Hill, but it came after the KD – Lemos went 0 for 3 officially. She did go 1/2 against Rodriguez and won that 2nd round via wrestling – granted Rodriguez has no get up game.
I believe she is a black belt in BJJ but don’t quote me on it.
She pulled off a nice choke over Grainger in her debut, but Grainger isn’t any good. Then she caught a nice opportunistic guillotine on Waterson in the 2nd round and threatened Zhang with some deeper front chokes but couldn’t finish.
Recently, she got the better of the wrestling exchanges over Lucindo, top timing her through the first couple rounds.
Overall, Lemos is capable offensively but not a fighter you can’t project to wrestle in volume and she’s been taken down by base strikers before. I thought she showed a lot of heart though in the Zhang fight as she could have just quit and succumbed to GNP or bad positions, but she kept fighting despite getting dominated and did work up under a handful of the TDs.
Robertson is a BJJ black belt, and her grappling has been almost exclusively tantamount to her UFC success. She lands 2.7 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 40%.
She’s largely been reliant on trips from the body lock and single legs – although has hit some reactionary doubles in the past.
I don’t think her entries to TDs are anything special per say but she’s gotten them relatively consistently depending on the matchup.
She has lost position at times earlier on because she has been aggressive but in general and more so in recent years, she’s really solid when she gains top positions.
As a result, she’s finished 10 of her 13 UFC wins on the ground (7 via sub and 3 via GNP) which submission wise, puts her #1 amongst active women regardless of weight class.
Defensively, she only stuffs at 41% which isn’t good but when put on her back, she’s very aggressive from bottom and can scramble – more so in recent years.
But we saw her not be able to secure anything from bottom or be able to work back up where she was controlled for 12+ minutes by Santos and lost on the cards. She did take a round from Maverick on the ground but also got outwrestled in the 1st and 3rd rounds.
She was also armbarred a while back by Silva but that was attributed to a transition where Robertson just made a small mistake.
But 62% of her fight time is spent grappling where she’s outcontrolling her opponents at an over 3:1 ratio.
Overall, Robertson has established herself as one of the best female topside grapplers in the UFC and will be a big problem for any girl she can establish positions on. On the flip side of the coin though, when she hasn’t been able to secure ground-based finishes or find larger swaths of control time, she’s lost those fights.
How it plays out: This is where the fight obviously favors Robertson as the superior wrestler and grappler. As noted though, she’s not a phenomenal wrestler per say and Lemos will be the more physical girl, so her securing traditional shots may not come easy. However, Lemos’ striking style will give Robertson lots of opportunities to get TDs whether that be from Lemos being too overcommittal when she throws or in getting kicks caught – coupled with Lemos just making some outright poor decisions at times in pulling for guillotines or not disengaging clinch positions when she should. From there, Lemos profiles to have struggles getting off the bottom more specifically without giving up bad positions so it is a potential situation where 1 TD could be a round for Robertson.
Fun fight and one that is about as binary as it gets with Lemos realizing a sizable advantage on the feet and Robertson on the ground. I do ultimately come out on the side of Robertson because she perceivably has the game to dictate where this fight takes place – coupled with that she’s 8 years younger and has a more consistent fighting style. But I’m not passionate at the same time because individual rounds could come down to when Robertson is actually able to get on top (barring no finish either way) where you have “damage vs control” in play and stuff gets wonky.
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On DraftKings, Robertson is a pretty easy target as we know how her fight will look.
When she wins, it will come with takedowns, control, and probably ground strikes with a potential finish to boot. She hasn’t always smashed in wins, but she’s capable of it, scoring 107, 100, 102, 105, 105, 95, 116, 94, and 92 in her most recent wins.
Robertson doesn’t land a lot of total strikes on average so her pure ceiling isn’t elite. But she’s very consistent to score in the mid-90s or low 100s which is oftentimes good enough. Now priced at 8.8k, it could be good enough.
The difficult part is just guessing on exactly where she’ll fall. And it also depends on what others do in this range. If we’re getting KOs from the strikers, I’d probably rather shy away from Robertson. If not, she could be a clear optimal play with 103.
I called her an easy target because ultimately, you’re not getting away from Robertson completely. She’s a grappling dependent fighter with a clear path to 100 points. She’s +115 to win ITD.
If you’re higher on other targets nearby, you can come in underweight to Robertson, but she’s a classic secondary or better grappling target who I’d like moderate exposure to.
Lemos is priced at 7.4k and will be the leverage side of the matchup.
The difficulty with targeting her is that she’ll score nothing per minute, and needs a knockout. Even if Robertson has one round of success, that could drastically limit the points Lemos scores. So even in a comeback, there’s no guarantee of a big result, and that’s what scares me.
If Lemos just KOs Robertson in round one, she’ll be optimal. If Robertson lands even one takedown, Lemos’ ceiling could be killed off.
Because the matchup is binary and because Lemos is a hard hitter, she’s still viable. She’s only +365 to win ITD but with leverage included she’s worth some consideration.
I can’t say I’m high on Lemos in this spot and I expect her to lose but with a larger portfolio, I’d like a bit of exposure just in case Robertson can’t land those early TDs and Lemos starts to pick her apart.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Robertson by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Joanderson Brito vs. Isaac Thomson
Fight Odds: Brito -225, Thomson +189
Odds to end ITD: Over 1.5 RDs -185
DraftKings Salaries: Brito 9k, Thomson 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Joanderson Brito’s a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season where he defeated upcoming title contender Diego Lopes to earn a contract. But after a relatively hot start to his UFC run, he’s now looking to rebound off back-to-back losses – he’s 5-3 in the UFC and 17-5-1 as a pro. Thomson’s an 8-fight vet of the LFA who’s getting the call up to make his debut on short notice with Baghdasaryan pulling out – he’s 9-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Brito comes out of the Chute Boxe camp in Brazil and it shows in his style.
He works a heavy forward pressure style and throws with intent on all of his shots, with 7 of his 17 pro wins coming via KO/TKO. He’s shown technical components at times using a jab, complemented with some solid kicks, but he’ll primarily throw hooks and overhands, making him not the most technical party in the aggregate but is accurate.
In that, he plays the bully in all his fights. But his aggressive nature has left him defensively susceptible to counter shots specifically.
In his defense, he’s only been KO’d once, which was back in 2015, so he’s shown to be pretty durable despite some of his poor defensive tendencies.
It was the straight shots and activity specifically of Algeo that gave him some issues in his debut loss, and some of the evasive counter capabilities against Gomis more specifically.
Overall, he’s potent offensively but does need to tighten up defensively now that he’s in the UFC as he’ll run into certain opponents who can handle his pressure and be more technical on the feet.
Thomson’s first martial art was karate where he holds a black belt in the discipline but also has some kickboxing and muay thai experience as well, where he’s 8-0 in those contests.
The latter makes more sense because he doesn’t really fight like a traditional karate striker with a super bladed stance or a ton of dancing movement patterns – he’s still shown decent footwork where he’ll also switch stances but his feet are a bit more under him.
He’s also got a good frame for the division at 5’11” with a 72” reach and has operated at a consistent work rate.
What I like most about him is that he doesn’t discriminate in his attacks as he’ll target all three levels of opponents. Four of his nine pro wins come via KO but I don’t fancy him as a gigantic hitter per say – he’s more of a timing guy where he can catch opponents with sneaky shots, being checks or high kicks.
Defensively, as noted, he moves relatively well but can be a bit wooden in the pocket at times – he’s still not absorbing strikes in volume though.
However, his first pro loss did come via KO back in 2021 granted to Dorian Ramos who’s a higher level regional talent.
Overall, I generally like what I’ve seen from Thomson on the feet so far where his stand up appears UFC level, and I’d anticipate him to make continued improvements at only 23 years old still
How it plays out: Off the top, Thomson will realize a 3” height advantage but both guys rep a similar reach. What’s interesting from the jump is that Brito’s primary striking struggles in the UFC have come against longer/movement based fighters which is Thomson’s profile. Brito definitely has more raw KO power than Thomson which is what I’d say would be the biggest concern for Thomson, but if Thomson can avoid a firefight and bigger pocket exchanges, he has the tools to give Brito some honest problems standing and potentially win the overall exchanges in landing more.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I believe Brito is a BJJ black belt with 8 of his 17 pro wins coming via submission as he’s got a nasty guillotine and back taking competency.
His offensive wrestling is also strong as he’s secured the large majority of TDs he’s attempted, with his TD accuracy currently sitting at 66%. When on top, he’s pretty aggressive with ground-and-pound, and has shown good positional control components – he’s usually racking up minutes with his TDs.
Probably the most impressive thing for me was in Brito’s fight against a talented grappler in Diego Lopes – he did get stuck in a couple sub attempts but was able to defend all of them and win on the mat.
To complement his wrestling/grappling competency, the guy’s strong as an ox at 145 lbs. – his general physicality will give a lot of guys issues.
He was able to have early wrestling success against Algeo as well but when he was a bit more tired, they stopped coming and he did end up getting stuck on his back for chunks of the fight as well, which is of concern.
He had some early success against Pearce, but Pearce was winning the overall wrestling exchanges where he controlled Brito for 6 minutes of that 9-minute fight – but Brito was able to work up in the 2nd round and secure a ninja choke which shows his opportunistic abilities as well.
He’s recently coming off getting grinded out by Sabatini who’s a really good wrestler so no shame hindsight, but he also showed some poor fight IQ there, consistently pulling guillotines when he primary PTV was on the feet.
Overall, I definitely downplayed Brito’s ground abilities going into his Contender Series but my opinion on that has changed a bit at least offensively. I still have concern with his gas tank and general bottom game though when he’s being aggressively wrestled.
In addition to Thomson’s striking background, he also reps a purple belt in BJJ.
He’s definitely not a wrestling first type of fighter but I’ve seen him mix TDs into a handful of spots where he appears competent – he’s also coming off scoring his first submission win a few fights back.
Defensively is where he’s had some issues with his last pro loss coming to Santana where he got backpacked for roughly half the fight, although he fought hands well.
He’s coming off edging out a split over an eastern European guy who by and large tried to shoot on him the majority of the fight – Thomson struggled to get off the fence and create space for chunks but his hips looked pretty good in terms of being able to stay upright.
Overall, I’d still like a bit more data with Thomson on the floor before making any definitive claims but he trains out of the Team Alpha camp in California which is a good wrestling gym to be making incremental improvements as a base striker.
How it plays out: This is where I’d give an advantage to Brito as the more established offensive wrestling and BJJ threat, coupled with not liking Thomson’s tendencies to give the back. That said, Brito doesn’t have a great gas tank if he’s forced to work really hard where we’ve seen him slow down in multiple extended fights where he can also give up bottom minutes as well.
For a last minute booking, this is a pretty solid fight. I wasn’t familiar with Thomson as a fighter until 24 hours ago but I think the kid is pretty decent. Obviously Brito is a step up in competition for him and the circumstances aren’t optimal by any means but he’s got a game to make this an honest fight. I still side more with Brito based on the spot and having higher finish upside but if this fight goes 15 and Thomson’s gas holds, we’re probably looking at a close decision.
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On DraftKings, I view Brito as a fine pivot within this top range.
I’ve been way lower on him than the public throughout his career, and been burned by it on occasion, though not recently. Regardless, when he has won, he’s typically scored very well with results of 101, 86, 108, 104, and 130. This is largely because every win has come ITD though.
So I think Brito probably needs a finish here to contend for the optimal, and that’s always tough to bet on. ITD odds aren’t out yet but the fight is -185 to go Over 1.5 rounds. I could see it happening but I’m not particularly confident.
There’s also the short notice aspect which adds some general variance to the mix.
Assuming Brito won’t be chalky, you could argue he’s a good pivot off Vallejos or the main event even. If Brito scores 100-110 I’d want exposure to him and he could stand out. I feel a little better about some other fighters though.
Thomson is priced at 7.2k and is a low-end target.
I didn’t love his early career tape but more recently he’s looked alright. Hard to know how he’ll fare on short notice but he does move well. I still think he’s unlikely to win ITD and probably won’t have much finishing equity on paper.
I also don’t know how much he can wrestle offensively, where if he did land 3+ takedowns I’d be more excited to chase him. I’m also not that high on Brito so as Luke said, if his cardio holds up, this could be a close decision.
Assuming Thomson isn’t popular this week, I think he’s an interesting pivot in that bottom range. You could even argue he’s among the best plays below the mid 7s. I just don’t have real confidence in him winning, but for the price, worth some low-end exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Brito by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Neil Magny vs. Yaroslav Amosov
Fight Odds: Amosov -423, Magny +335
Odds to end ITD: -145
DraftKings Salaries: Amosov 9.4k, Magny 6.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a highly anticipated UFC debut here as UFC veteran Neil Magny will welcome former Bellator welterweight champion Yaroslav Amosov.
Neil Magny is coming off a huge upset win over Jake Matthews. Magny submitted Matthews in round 3 and I remember pounding the desk that I thought Magny was being underestimated going into that matchup. I was happy to see Magny get the win there. He is a hard worker and has fought insanely good competition for years.
Magny is a decent fighter. At his best, Magny has a great gas tank, and he weaponizes it tremendously.
Magny lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.44 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. He puts on a pace and generally outlands his opponents. He isn’t super skilled, but his cardio is great.
Magny does lack power. He rarely hurts opponents and can be cracked occasionally by opponents with more firepower. Magny can hurt opponents with attrition though which usually come to inside fighting like clinch elbows or knees.
Magny is VERY susceptible to leg kicks and can get absolutely battered and neutralized by them. Ian Garry tore his legs up a couple of fights ago. Magny’s durability is also not great anymore and has been finished in his last two losses. However, both knockout losses came to Carlos Prates and Michael Morales who are good fighters and super dangerous.
Magny thrives at clinching opponents against the cage. He does a good job winning the position up against the cage and mixing in his strikes. He is also a capable wrestler landing 2.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is also racking up some submission wins and he has now d’arced Jake Matthews and Daniel Rodriguez. He definitely can submit panicked or tired opponents.
I still don’t consider Magny a great wrestler or capable of outwrestling good wrestlers. He can more so take advantage of okay grapplers, especially if he tires them with his pace. I do think he can work his clinch vs a lot of fighters though.
Magny is an okay defensive grappler but not a good one, and has been exposed on the mat a lot recently. He defends takedowns at 55 percent. He can generally work up well but strong grapplers can have success against him.
I still think Magny is generally underestimated by the betting market. In his last 12 fights, he is 7-5. His 5 losses were to Shavkat, prime Burns, Ian Garry, Michael Morales, and Carlos Prates. People thought he was washed but he keeps winning when he gets steps down in competition. His last 7 wins were to Neal, Rodriguez, Griffin, Rowe, Malott, Dos Santos, and Matthews.
Those are honestly some solid wins and it just shows that Magny has actually done really well against the middle class of this division. He just gets owned by the best guys. It is honestly impressive because usually the middle of the pack welterweights just trade wins with each other but Magny has actually kind of dominated them. The top fighters are the guys who just give Magny issues.
Magny will be taking on Yaroslav Amosov who is the former Bellator welterweight champion. He is 28-1 professionally. His 1 loss came to Jason Jackson, a very physical and good sprawl and brawler who was able to stop the takedowns of Amosov and beat him up standing.
Amosov has some good wins. In Bellator, he has notable wins over Logan Storley, Ed Ruth, and Douglas Lima. I want to mention that I do think Amosov is solid and I will break down his fighting style below. However, his Bellator career is a bit overrated. Ruth and Storley, although solid fighters, have proven to be failed prospects and failed people’s expectations in a way. Douglas Lima is a guy who some people used to hilariously say could beat prime Kamaru Usman and I have some old tweets on Twitter calling him overrated. Lima has now lost 7 of his last 8 fights and has proven to be overrated. So I don’t think Amosov’s Bellator career is all that impressive in hindsight.
I actually think Amosov’s best win was a long time ago against Roberto Soldic who was the KSW champion who beat the crap out of Dricus Du Plessis. I definitely think Amosov is solid and UFC level but I do think he is probably a bit overrated to a degree.
Yaroslav Amosov’s fighting style centers primarily on a grappling-heavy approach developed through his background as a combat sambo champion. He is effective at securing takedowns, utilizing a variety of throws, slams, and leg attacks. He has a good snap single and can shoot duck unders and high crotches to obtain standing backtakes. He is also fairly tenacious with his grappling and can shoot a decently high number of takedown attempts.
Once in top position, Amosov maintains pretty strong control and looks for submission opportunities, particularly chokes, or applies ground-and-pound. He has 11 wins by submission and I consider him a solid submission grappler with a good front choke game. He has a ton of Anaconda / D’Arce choke wins on his record. His wrestling defense is solid. His cardio is also not a real concern especially in three rounds.
Amosov also has a serviceable striking skill set that he uses to manage distance and facilitate his entries into grappling exchanges. He isn’t a great striker though and I do think that is where he will struggle against the top welterweights. I just think he lacks some physicality as a striker and you really saw that against Jason Jackson, He isn’t bad on the feet but I think he moreso uses his striking to minimize getting hit himself and looks to land his own takedowns.
As far as this matchup goes, I do tend to think this line is probably a little too wide again. However, I am more comfortable with Amosov here than I was in Matthews at a similar price.
I think Amosov is a better wrestler than Magny and can have success landing takedowns on Magny, and honestly may submit him. I also think Amosov can probably minimize the striking exchanges and just land takedowns once Magny comes in. I more think Amosov is going to struggle against more physical strikers in this weight class. I am honestly hoping Amosov goes in there and quickly dominates Magny on the mat so we get to fade Amosov later. Anyway, I do think Amosov winning with takedowns and control or a submission is the most likely outcome here.
I still will never count Magny out though. His length and cardio could be an issue for Amosov and on the feet I do think Magny can compete. Amosov also just likes to be in complete control of the fight so maybe Magny just resists a bit or has a little success and then it goes downhill for Amosov like many of Magny’s past opponents.
Still though, I think Amosov is a better wrestler and a good limiter of engagements so I think Amosov will get it done.
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On DraftKings, Amosov is priced as the most expensive on the board at 9.4k and rates out as a decent option.
I’m lukewarm on him as a prospect, but he is a decent wrestler and Magny doesn’t defend takedowns very well. Amosov has also gone the five round distance on multiple occasions so his cardio is fine. He can probably just wrestle his way to a win and potentially submit Magny.
In that type of outcome, Amosov could score well. He’s +100 to win ITD which is fine.
I think Amosov is probably among the safest fighters on this slate in terms of winning + scoring well. Of course that comes with a hefty price tag and probably high public ownership too, but when I can pay up, Amosov is definitely in consideration.
We have some boom/bust guys in the 8k range who if they hit, have a good shot of pushing Amosov off the optimal lineup. If not, Amosov could just be an easy slot-in for the optimal. He’ll still need to compete with Kape in the main event too.
I don’t think this is close to a guarantee for Amosov to smash, but he rates out pretty well across the board, should win and should put up a decent score. I’m willing to play him moderately.
Magny is the cheapest fighter at 6.7k and I’m not super interested.
I just don’t see this matchup as one for him to excel, other than some random late comeback. Compared to his last fight against Matthews, I did like Magny there because Matthews has a tendency to implode. I’m less bullish on that type of outcome with Amosov.
But we’ve seen this happen before. Magny is always live. He’s always underrated. In wins he can score well.
He’s still only +525 to win ITD and the biggest dog on the slate, so I can’t recommend anything more than a dart throw here. I won’t have any real exposure to Magny this week personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amosov by Arm-Triangle, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Sean Sharaf vs. Steven Asplund
Fight Odds: Asplund -224, Sharaf +188
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Asplund 8.9k, Sharaf 7.3k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a shitshow here in the heavyweight division between Sean Sharaf and Steven Asplund.
Sharaf is an American fighter who is 4-1 professionally. He is 32 years old. He made his UFC debut in October of 2024 against Junior Tafa and it was a wild fight.
Essentially, Sharaf came out hot with strikes early in round one against Tafa. Sharaf had some success in some wild and sometimes sloppy back-and-forth striking exchanges. Then towards the end of the round, Sharaf took Tafa town and mounted him, and was battering Tafa with ground-and-pound before Tafa was saved by the bell.
When I say saved by the bell, I really mean saved by the bell. There was absolutely no chance Tafa was going to survive that position as Sharaf was battering him and Tafa was covering up and not defending himself. I honestly think Mark Smith could have stopped the fight and the only reason Smith didn’t was because he knew the end of the round was approaching. Sharaf was that close to winning the fight.
Then they came out in round 2 and Sharaf was tired as well as Tafa, but Sharaf was more tired as he was taking the fight on just a few day’s notice. Tafa then knocked Sharaf out in a standing TKO. Sharaf basically just gassed himself out.
Before his UFC debut, Sharaf finished all of his opponents in round 1 and all of his opponents were terrible. He fought similarly in those fights as he did against Tafa. He came out hot and looked to throw bombs and then occasionally look for a takedown mixed in as well. It was able to work on the regionals because his competition was so bad.
I do think Sharaf has some decent firepower early and can rip the body and has some power. I think he can get on top of bad heavyweights as well.
Overall though, I don’t think Sharaf is good at all. I think his most likely way to win in the UFC is coming out and winning early by knockout or by outgrappling a very weak defensive grappler as I don’t think his takedowns are very strong. If those things don’t happen, he will probably just get tired and lose or get picked apart on the feet and knocked out or outgrappled himself. He just doesn’t look like a guy who can thrive in extended fights and I really question his defensive striking overall.
Sharaf will be taking on Steven Asplund. Asplund is an American fighter who is 27 years old and is 6-1 professionally. He is a massive heavyweight and used to weigh 500 pounds. He is 6’5” and generally weighs in at the upper weight of the heavyweight limits. Asplund booked his ticket to the UFC by quickly knocking out his opponent on the Contender Series.
So Asplund is a striker. He is a tough big guy and he has some pretty good hands and some deceiving speed, cardio, and athleticism for his size. He will come in and look to just beat his opponents up. He is capable of knocking them out early or just outlasting them with pace and attrition striking. I was actually surprised with his cardio. His fight against Hammer Morton was good in the sense that it was a three round fight and Asplund just battered Morton for three rounds before eventually getting the round 3 stoppage. Asplund isn’t a guy who will just gas if he doesn’t get an early finish. Asplund also seems somewhat tough and durable as well.
The issue with Asplund is his defensive grappling. His one loss came to Denzel Freeman where he was taken down a few times and eventually submitted in round 2. Asplund resisted to a degree but he is clearly vulnerable as a defensive grappler. Freeman is actually good though so I don’t think that loss is all that alarming.
Another vulnerable and perhaps more concerning grappling fight of Asplund’s was against Raiden Kovacs. Kovacs got an early takedown and was able to get dominant positions on Asplund. Asplund is tough though and fought hard to survive, and will try to explode out and wall walk. The round ended and Asplund survived, and then Asplund was able to knock Kovacs out in round 2 by having superior cardio.
I think Asplund is a guy who can actually do well in striking fights in this division but will be vulnerable on the mat against decent grapplers. His defensive grappling isn’t the worst thing I have ever seen. He is big and he can defend some takedowns to a degree and explode out and scramble. However, he will definitely get beat on the mat again at some point.
Asplund has some massive advantages in this fight. He is WAY bigger than Sharaf. He only has 2 inches of height over Sharaf but is definitely the bigger and more physical man. Also, Asplund’s durational striking and cardio advantages are massive here. If Sharaf doesn’t get Asplund out of there in round 1, I highly doubt Sharaf will win this fight. Sharaf will likely just gas and get finished. Sharaf also may just choose to strike early and get knocked out fresh as well.
I think Sharaf needs to either win by very quick standing knockout, which I think is possible due to variance but something I don’t have confidence in. The other and main path to victory I see for Sharaf is by wrestling Asplund and finishing him quickly on the mat. I do think Sharaf can maybe land a takedown and get some good positions. I do think an early ground finish could happen for Sharaf.
The issue is Sharaf needs to commit to that grappling gameplan quickly. I don’t think Sharaf will have the cardio to easily get Asplund down after a few minutes. I also just think Asplund is huge so Sharaf may struggle with the size. I also just don’t even think Sharaf is a very good grappler so he may have no success getting Asplund down at all. Furthermore, Asplund probably could get taken down and beat up and just try to survive as well. If Asplund just makes it to round 2 and they restart on the feet again, he probably knocks Sharaf out.
So I am going to go with Asplund here. I think the most likely outcome is Asplund just knocks Sharaf out early or Asplund just eventually gasses Sharaf out and puts him away. Sharaf has a few minutes to get this done on the mat or get a quick standing knockout.
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On DraftKings, I suppose I’m interested in this matchup given that it’s likely to end inside the distance.
I suspect most will just view this as Sharaf needs to win early, or Asplund will TKO him, and that’s where I lean as well.
I do want to note that Sharaf came in on really short notice against Tafa, so I’m not 100 percent convinced he’ll just gas and die any time round two starts. Asplund does have better cardio than him on paper. Asplund also has terrible wrestling, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Sharaf got to him early.
Asplund is priced at 8.9k and a pretty reasonable tournament target. He’s not overly costly, and has good metrics with a -185 ITD line. The most likely outcome here is probably Asplund by TKO.
Even if it comes in round two or three, we could see enough volume alongside it for a decent score at the price. I wouldn’t be shocked if Asplund was chalky honestly, just given the situation.
I’m not super confident in Asplund but I’m pretty willing to play him at 8.9k and will aim for moderate exposure.
Sharaf seems like a decent tournament option at 7.3k.
My guess is he won’t be too popular coming off that loss, and he could be leverage against Asplund. He’s +265 to win ITD and has grappling equity too.
It’s hard to love Sharaf. I do think a takedown or RD 1 finish is live though, and so he’s at the least a solid low-end/upside play. I’ll aim to be in on this fight as a whole which does mean having a handful of shares of Sharaf in large fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Asplund by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos
Fight Odds: Santos -127, Croden +109
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.5k, Croden 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Luana Santos got a bit of a fast track to the UFC back in 2023, bypassing the Contender Series after going 2-1 in LFA. She’s ultimately done well on the rap sheet and will be entering her 2nd consecutive fight up at 135 lbs. – she’s 4-1 in the UFC and 9-2 as a pro. Melissa Croden is three-fight vet of the LFA who’s getting a quicker turnaround after a successful UFC debut back in October – she’s 7-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Santos is a grappler by base with serviceable striking in relation to the level.
She’s fought in more tepid paces at points but has had above-average volume in other affairs. Her striking is basic though as she’ll use the occasional lead kick, but is primarily boxing based with 1-2s or overhands.
In saying that though, she’s been competitive standing in most of her fights if not getting the better of her opponents.
She actually dropped her last LFA opponent with an overhand right and hurt Miller with that same shot, which started the beginning of the end finishing via standing TKO. So, she’s got some pop and is accurate in her shots, but has also largely fought punching bags so take that for what you will.
For Santos defensively, there isn’t much head movement from her either so girls can touch her, but she does an okay job of coming in and out of range – she more so struggles when she’s the one being forced backwards where we saw that at points in her loss to Bishop and against Egger which weren’t the best looks given both are base grapplers.
She also struggled on the back foot against O’Neill where she was outlanded 69 to 41 at distance.
Overall, I don’t mind Santos’ stand-up given her age and the fact that striking isn’t her base but it’s still raw and we haven’t seen her in more extended exchanges against better caliber strikers.
Croden’s a pretty big 135er standing 5’9” with a 69” reach.
It’s still a bit difficult to put an official stamp on her striking and who she actually is because I’ve seen variable approaches from her over the years.
Specifically in her fights with Martins and Cavalcanti she played a more methodical mid-range game which ultimately didn’t work out for her – in her defense, not bad losses – the Martins fight was close and Cavalcanti’s now undefeated in the UFC.
However, she’s been more aggressive in her last three fights and specifically prioritized a clinch game where she did some pretty nasty work to both Lehner and Deen, finishing both.
While she definitely still ate some clean shots from Lisboa last time out and got busted up a bit, Croden ultimately outstruck her 99-42 and hurt Lisboa at multiple points, eventually leading to a latter attritional finish.
I’m hoping some of the recent showings will be more transparent going forward with her because while I don’t think she’s a bad distance striker and does some things well mechanically, she’s still a bit rigid, not the fastest girl and can be hittable.
How it plays out: Off the top, Croden will realize a size advantage of 3” in height and 2” in reach. I’d expect mid-range exchanges to be competitive, maybe with an edge to Santos just because she’s a bit quicker but the closer quarter/pressure based, clinch exchanges (striking wise) should favor Croden. Despite Santos’ TKO over Miller, I’d say that Croden brings more damage profile.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Santos comes from a Judo background, holding a black belt in the discipline.
She’s a girl who will strike for periods of time in her fights, but she does look to get fights down as well.
She has shown some okay double legs (in relation to the level) but given her background, she does prefer her throws in which she’s hit many.
She likes the head and arm stuff which I’m not a fan of, but it has worked against a few girls where she’s been able to establish top position or set up her kesagatame key locks.
Her fight against a fellow Judoka in Egger was largely stalemated against the fence but she did throw Egger twice which was impressive albeit she didn’t establish any real ground control.
By and large, her control on the ground has been good when she can solidify positions and she’ll throw some GNP – however, she has struggled to pass with consistency.
She submitted her last LFA opponent with a standing gilly which she has attempted in other fights as well, but I don’t rate her much as a pure submission grappler. Submitting Agapova is largely meaningless considering she can’t grapple at all – hit a nice throw in that fight though.
She’s coming off washing Lisboa but I’m not sure how meaningful that is either and it still took her nearly two rounds to finish also with a keylock.
Defensively, it hasn’t been all roses.
She defended the majority of conventional TDs from Bishop, but she got taken down in the 3rd round – she also had two failed throw attempts and got her back taken in all three rounds.
In her defense, she fought hands well against Bishop who is a black belt but that was ultimately her downfall and the reason she lost the fight as she couldn’t work out of those positions despite surviving.
She also failed a throw in round 3 against O’Neill, resulting in her getting her back taken again but fought hands well – ate GNP though.
Outside of that, I’ve seen her reverse out of mount once and defend a tighter guillotine but I’ve yet to see her really work up from conventional ground positions.
Overall, Santos can be strong on top but she’s not a great conventional wrestler and hasn’t looked great on the bottom.
Croden’s a more recently crowned BJJ brown belt but only reps one pro win via submission which was a fight I wasn’t able to view.
In the wider past, she hasn’t really been a proactive wrestler but it’s been in the last handful of fights when she’s going to the clinch more that she’s been able to muscle some girls down.
While I don’t think it’s the most technical thing in the world, she’s been ruthless when she’s gotten on top and is definitely a fighter that prioritizes GNP over SUB despite her credentials.
Defensively, she was taken down a couple times in the Martins fight and did get her back taken briefly where the ref just pulled Martins off which was weird but she was able to work up on the other lone attempt.
Lisboa went 2/8 on her last time out but Croden did a good job of using the cage to work up from the TDs secured against her.
Overall, I’d like a larger sample of Croden before making any super definitive claims but if she can replicate what she’s shown in her last couple fights, she’s not an opponent girls will want on top of them – I still have some honest questions though of how she looks flattened in the open mat or if she’s put in more compromising positions.
How it plays out: The grappling is pretty interesting because there is strong merit to either girl should they gain top positions. As noted, I don’t think either are very good conventional wrestlers where it’s more so the Judo from Santos versus the brooding thai bully stuff from Croden. Despite that, Santos is probably more live to land reactionary stuff given some of the lazier kicks from Croden but despite Santos’ Judo background, ironically the closer quarter TDs may actually favor Croden especially if Santos is over-rotating and that Croden profiles to be the more physical girl in the matchup.
This is a somewhat tricky fight to analyze and call. I’ve never been a big Santos guy as I’ve always thought she was rather overrated and I still hold that position despite her current UFC record. On the flip, Croden had a good UFC debut showing but assessing what her UFC ceiling is also tough, considering she’s not a young girl and hasn’t fought a super deep strength of schedule. I do lean Croden’s way though primarily because I feel she has the superior cardio and will be the more physical fighter – that said, my confidence interval is fairly low because I have real concerns if she’s taken down in the open mat and she’s still not some striking savant by any stretch – volatile fight.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a hit or miss lower-level WMMA fight.
I don’t want to call it boom or bust – but I do see ways where the winner scores well, though it’s hard to trust on either side.
Primarily, the fight should be at a decent pace and both girls have the ability to get on top. Whoever is on top likely wins the fight and we could see points racked up from it. Unfortunately we could also see both on top, and both neutralize each other in that regard.
I was big on Croden last time out and she came through, scoring 123 DK points in her UFC debut. A lot of that was matchup based and if the public is going to hammer her based on that result alone, I don’t want to be in on her.
However, I think the best part of her game clearly is her GnP. So if she’s able to land takedowns, get on top and land GnP, Croden can rack up points and potentially score 80-90 or more. She’s only +360 to win ITD though.
At 7.7k, I think Croden is a fine secondary option. My best guess is the fight is competitive and therefore she won’t smash, but if she wins, I’d want a bit of exposure to Croden in case it does come on the mat. For the price tag, she’s a reasonable mid-range option who saves some salary and presents an upside case, but I wouldn’t aim to be high on her necessarily.
Santos is priced at 8.5k and is coming off a 107 point win, with her other UFC wins scoring 101, 83 and 116 which is great. Maybe she’ll be popular too based on box scores.
Like Croden, I wouldn’t bet on Santos duplicating those results as her wins against Miller, Agapova and Lisboa don’t mean much. With that said, she could easily land 2-3 takedowns in a win, and perhaps she has some finishing equity there too with a +360 ITD line.
It’s one of those cases where I’m not high on Santos as a prospect because her style shouldn’t work. In low level WMMA it can and has worked. Head/arm throwing a girl and submitting her with a keylock really isn’t the type of result I’d want to aim for, and Croden should defend it as should other opponents, but it’s also possible she’s not trained for it specifically in which case Santos can cruise.
Ultimately, because Santos projects to grapple in a win, she’s a viable secondary target and someone I’d like a bit of exposure to in a win. However, she does feel a bit overpriced and I’d lean against targeting her often.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Croden by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Allen Frye Jr. vs. Guillherme Pat
Fight Odds: Pat -168, Frye +143
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Pat 8.6k, Frye 7.6k
Weight Class: HW
Unlike some recent newcomer matchups, this fight between the debuting Allen Frye Jr. and Guillherme Pat looks super gross and I have no reason to be excited about either as a prospect.
Frye is 6-0 professionally at 27 years old, and he’s earned all six wins by knockout, with half of them coming in 30 seconds or less.
He comes from a D3 basketball background where he transitioned to MMA after playing, wanting to make use of his athletic talents. He now fights out of Derek Brunson’s gym and has been competing in random regional orgs against terrible competition.
The only quality fighter he’s competed against to date was his most recent win over Justin Frazier, who made it to The Ultimate Fighter finale years back but was finished quickly and cut. He’s a low-level talent and poor athlete at best.
We barely get any footage of his fights too and what we have is from a cell phone, so there just isn’t much to analyze. Frazier took him down early and Frye got back up, landed some punches and that was that.
He honestly didn’t pass the eye test for me though. I didn’t see some legit boxer in the cage. I doubt his wrestling is great. I believe he’s a blue or purple bet in BJJ but I doubt he can beat strong competition.
For now I just have to consider Frye a low level HW. He’s been to round 2 and round 3 in his fights that didn’t end quickly, so maybe his cardio is fine. I haven’t seen it. He’s probably dependent on early damage though.
Guilherme “Pat” Rodrigues a.k.a “Kong” is 5-0 professionally with four wins by knockout and one by decision.
He’s very tall and long, standing 6’5” tall with an 80 inch reach, and he fights out of the Southpaw stance. He’s primarily a striker and he falls into the technician, counter-striker category for me.
Conversely to Frye, Pat actually does pass the eye test in terms of fluidity and movement. He looks like he can strike and I’ve liked some of what I’ve seen. He can throw a jab, he throws some hard leg kicks and that’s all you really need.
I wouldn’t label him a major power threat though, and more importantly, he hasn’t shown the aggression I’d like to see from a HW.
To put it in context, he has one fight against a short, fat dude half his size with zero ability. Pat is just standing there at distance, throwing an occasional jab or leg kick, and waiting for the opponent to do something. He eventually wins via “retirement” but he showed no willingness to hunt for the kill and it’s an opponent dangerous HWs would beat in 25 seconds.
Most recently he fought a juiced up grappler, who took him down over and over for the first two rounds, though Pat would stand back up against the cage over and over again. His takedown defense wasn’t horrible but he couldn’t stop his opponent from clinching.
Again, he’s just too inactive. Even in round three where he’s arguably down two rounds, Pat is just standing back and waiting for something to happen. His opponent just ran himself into some punches and the ref ended up stepping in.
I like the technique I see from Pat and I think he’s a decent striker with some danger, but his lack of aggression really annoys me and he kind of sets up more as a boring, point fighting guy. I’m sure he can land some big strikes and get occasional knockouts too against low-level competition.
Wrestling seems like a liability for him at this point as well, though he’s decent enough to survive a couple of attempts, and his cardio is fine in extended matchups.
I really don’t know how this fight will look. I’m surprised the Unders are juiced here as I really worry Pat won’t want to engage, and we’ll just see an extended distance affair.
My guess is Pat is clearly the more technical fighter. He can jab, throw leg kicks, and probably do more damage. I wouldn’t be surprised by an early knockout. But he might land 40-50 strikes in 15 minutes so if Frye isn’t rushing at him, we just might not see enough action.
Pat is probably more willing to box but there’s a decent chance he’s outclassed and can’t do much. He might carry more power though and with an athletic background, maybe he can land big shots if he can get in close. Maybe he can wrestle and grapple but it’s hard to bet on a lot of success.
It’s a low-level fight with variance and nothing to feel confident about. I’ll take Pat as the more technical striker on paper, and I guess I’ll lean toward him hurting Frye at some point along the way.
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On DraftKings, both sides of the fight are viable, especially on a 12 fight slate with both priced in the mid-range.
And the fight is lined -600 to end inside the distance, with the Under 1.5 rounds prop set at -160, so clearly the bookies are expecting a finish. I am scared about it though.
Pat is priced at 8.6k and should be knockout or bust. Honestly, if he’s going to be chalky, I don’t mind being underweight here. There’s a good chance in my mind he lands like 15-20 strikes in round one and doesn’t get the finish, and I wouldn’t be shocked at a decision. So there is very clear bust potential in my mind.
Of course the other outcome is that it does end early, in which case the winner can compete for the optimal. Considering he throws heavy leg kicks, Pat at least has another route for the stoppage and he’s -125 to win ITD, so I consider him a fine tournament play in general. Probably aim to play him near the field but I’d be very nervous to be heavy on this one at chalk.
Frye is priced at 7.6k and I doubt he’ll be very popular, but he carries some finishing equity. He’s +170 to win ITD and all of his wins have come by TKO.
I don’t mind using Frye as a secondary target by default, but again it’s hard to feel confident in.
Really just a spot that you hope doesn’t burn you in my opinion. I’ll probably aim to be near the field and I do prefer Pat to Frye, but there’s a lot of variance here both in terms of how the fight plays out and whether it ends early or not.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pat by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Tereza Bleda
Fight Odds: Bleda -159, Horth +136
Odds to end ITD: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Bleda 8.3k, Horth 7.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a goofy fight here in the curtain jerker between Tereza Bleda and Jamey-Lyn Horth.
Before Tereza Bleda’s UFC debut, I was actually pretty impressed by what I saw on tape of her, especially for her age. She is 7-1 professionally and was undefeated on the amateur circuit. She is actually 5’9” and is huge for the weight class which is a big advantage.
I thought Bleda performed admirably in her UFC debut against Natalia Silva as well. Silva is tough to deal with and Bleda actually won round one. Bleda then got exhausted (by the resistance Silva was putting up) later in the fight and got finished. It was still a fine performance though and I still thought she would win fights in the UFC.
She then bounced back with a three-takedown and top control win over Gabriella Fernandes. Bleda landed a takedown each round and just consolidated top position to win 30-27.
So essentially Bleda is best as a grappler. She actually has a really good double leg takedown which you don’t see much of in WMMA. Bleda’s takedowns pass the eye test to me. She is also pretty competent in top position and can mix in some GNP and submissions. She has a decent understanding of top pressure and control. I do think she can outgrapple girls in this division.
I have also seen Bleda strike a bit in pockets even though her game is generally to take her opponents down. She is semi-functional as a striker when fresh. She has decent straight punches and can mix in some solid low kicks. I don’t have a ton of faith in her striking at this point though because Silva pieced her up and she looked vulnerable against Gabriella Fernandes there. She seemed to get a little tired and hurt in round three against Fernandes.
I basically consider Bleda a grappling dependent fighter at this point. I really like her takedowns when fresh as well as her top control. She will wreck below-average grapplers. Her issues are her striking and potentially her cardio at this point.
Bleda will be taking on Jamey-Lyn Horth. Horth is 8-2 professionally.
Horth made her UFC debut against Hailey Cowan and basically won a low tempo striking fight where she landed 76 significant strikes in a pretty boring and terrible fight. She then lost a close decision to Veronica Hardy. She was a little too slow at range against Hardy and lost some of the striking exchanges early. However, she did start having success in the clinch and with some grappling in top position. However, she started implementing those grappling exchanges a bit too late.
Horth then beat Ivana Petrovic by an ugly split decision before losing to Miranda Maverick in a surprisingly competitive fight, where Horth was outwrestled down the stretch to come up short on the judges scorecards. Most recently, she dominated Vanessa Demopoulos on the feet, landing 101 significant strikes en route to a decision win.
Horth is a goofy fighter to describe. She is very big standing at 5’7” and also looks like a strong girl. However, it is hard to even describe where her offense comes from. On the feet, I don’t consider her good, especially at distance. She is slow and a bit plodding, and doesn’t have a ton of movement. She can go through the motions a little bit and wing some power punches occasionally. However, she looks a bit hittable to me and I have even seen her dropped on the regionals.
I consider her a mildly competent striker who can outstrike bad fighters. However, she doesn’t have a ton of striking depth. She really underperformed my striking expectations against Petrovic. However, she looked a bit better against Demopoulos.
Horth can hold position and looks semi decent in top position. Although she gets top position in fights, she isn’t a great takedown artist and only lands 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, fighting poor competition. She usually gets to top position off defending a shitty shot from her opponent and sprawling on top of them, or if her opponent falls over or something.
Horth’s TDD is a bit suspect to me. I have seen her get taken down off caught kicks at least five times in just a few fights. She is at least defending takedowns at 76 percent though. She does seem to know what she is doing in bottom position. She can generally retain guard and work to her feet.
She looks competent as a pure BJJ player and can surely defend herself on the mat. She is a BJJ brown belt. However, she looked a bit sloppy against Petrovic on the mat losing position, getting taken down and controlled, etc. I think her takedown defense is okay but it isn’t perfect and she can be held down to a degree.
Horth is just pretty low to mid to me. She is big which will help her. I honestly think her size and ability to minimize offense of her opponents is her biggest strength. However, I question her offensive abilities as I don’t think she is that good of a striker or a real takedown threat. I do think her top game is okay as is her overall technical BJJ grappling game. I also think she is positionally strong in the clinch.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a goofy one. I am leaning Bleda because I do like her takedown game and I do think she can get takedowns and top position early on in this fight. I think there is a good chance she wins the first round just getting her takedowns and top position, and not being vulnerable on the feet quite yet. I think she can maybe build that lead and hold onto it.
The issue is Horth isn’t awful as a defensive grappler and is pretty physical, and isn’t defenseless on the ground. Even if Horth is getting taken down early, she may be able to resist enough and defend herself on the mat which could cause Bleda to work hard and fatigue.
If Bleda gets tired, I think the tides could turn here. I could see the takedowns start to fail later in this fight, and Horth is probably a better striker here and surely has better cardio. So I do think Horth has some cardio advantage win equity here. Horth may resist and then beat up a tired Bleda later.
This fight is a mess. From a betting perspective, I would just wait live if you like Horth as Bleda will likely win the early portions of this fight.
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On DraftKings, this is a pretty gross fight.
I guess Bleda rates out better on paper because her paths is takedowns and top control. She just scored 112 DK points with three takedowns, 11 minutes of control and 180+ total strikes.
We’ve seen Horth yield two takedowns to three of her past five opponents, so 2-3 takedowns for Bleda is very achievable. Therefore, she’s a fine target at 8.3k.
My issue is twofold. One concern I have is that Horth isn’t as awful as Fernandes on the mat, so two takedowns and seven minutes of control are more likely than three takedowns and 11 minutes of control. If you just dial back Bleda’s production to 3 takedowns, seven minutes of control and 60 total strikes, you’re looking at 75 DK points instead of 112.
Simply put, I’m less confident that Bleda can totally dominate Horth on the mat for the full fight. She’s only +300 to win ITD as well.
My other issue is that Bleda looked gassed and vulnerable on the feet in the third round of her last fight, and she was previously TKOd in round three by Silva. We may have a problem here. And that problem may be that Bleda is super vulnerable if she can’t get takedowns.
I fear this fight could turn quickly, where Bleda has a great first 1.5 rounds and then looks horrible down the stretch. It’s a bust risk for sure if not a risk to lose the fight outright.
I honestly don’t feel comfortable with Bleda this week. I think by default, she’s a fine secondary target and someone I’d like exposure to given her grappling style. I do not think she has an “easy” path to 100+ points though and really wouldn’t be surprised if she underperformed.
Horth is a tougher click at 7.9k and you’re probably just hoping she can find a finish in the second half of the fight.
Horth is big and physical but she will be undersized to Bleda who is bigger. She landed a lot of distance strikes in her last fight so theoretically, if she can defend takedowns, maybe she can swarm Bleda and hurt her.
Horth will only be a contrarian target though. I highly doubt she’ll be owned with a +600 ITD line and coming off an 87 point win. She could be very low owned.
Part of me thinks it is worth considering taking a shot on Horth as a contrarian option. I really fear Bleda will get hurt and TKOd again. Horth isn’t necessarily the type to bet on but she probably has a cardio advantage late.
The most likely scenario is that Horth can turn the fight into a competitive one and kill off the upside for both fighters, so I can’t really recommend you chase this much. Perhaps something to consider in larger fields when you need a spot to be unique though.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Horth by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Bobby “King” Green vs. Lance Gibson Jr.
Fight Odds:
Odds to end ITD:
DraftKings Salaries:
Weight Class: 155
We have a randomly announced matchup on Tuesday featuring the return of Bobby “King” Green, and former Bellator talent Lance Gibson Jr.
Gibson is 9-1 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned four wins by knockout and three by submission.
He’s the son of Canadian MMA pioneer Lance Gibson Sr., who competed at UFC 24 and won via knockout, later losing to Evan Tanner at UFC UFC 29. His step mom is also Julia Budd who is a former Bellator champion.
Gibson made his Bellator debut in 2019 and won five consecutive fights before falling to Vladimir in 2023. He’s since won a random same-night tournament in 2024 but those fights were pretty meaningless.
Essentially, Gibson has been training MMA since he was a baby, and he’s relatively well-rounded because of it. He’s a good athlete, he can strike and he can grapple. Based on what I’ve seen, his grappling is his strength though.
On the feet, he likes to bounce around and I think his kicks are his best weapons. My biggest concern is that against Tokov, he got caught throwing a naked kick and was put down in the first round. He was also dropped badly early in one of his decision wins but came back to win.
So although Gibson might be tough, I’m not sure he’s defensively sound enough to beat higher level UFC strikers. His striking is fine generally though, he can work on the inside a little bit and kick from the outside. I wouldn’t expect him to clearly win rounds though.
Gibson can wrestle a little bit. He has a double leg and some cage wrestling. I think his top game is better than his pure wrestling though, to where if he’s on top, he can float through positions and transition well. I’m not sure what BJJ belt he has but his submission grappling game doesn’t seem super elite, but I’d guess he can work weaker grapplers.
I do think Gibson has a clear path to victory on the mat with his style. He can land takedowns, sit in top half guard and throw ground and pound. He can also compete on the feet in minutes.
I’m just not sure Gibson has a real ceiling. I don’t think he’s an elite wrestler, or a great finishing threat. I don’t think he’s an elite striker, and I have durability concerns. But his cardio is pretty strong and he’s well-rounded enough to give the division a fair test.
Bobby Green is a longtime veteran of the sport but he’s not in his best form, and is coming off a devastating knockout loss to Mauricio Ruffy in March. Prior to that, he was submitted by Paddy Pimblett in the first round.
Green historically is an elite volume boxer, and lands 6.40 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.72 per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate.
We’ve seen Green top out at 188 and 186 sig. strikes in multiple three-round fights, which is insane. He’s not the best power striker but that kind of striking accumulation over three rounds can obviously break guys, and his cardio is super impressive given those metrics.
Green is a shit talker though, and he likes to showboat. He will get in your face, talk crap, and try to bob and weave with his head. His general IQ isn’t always the highest in that sense, and he can also lose rounds or get hit hard by being dumb. But it also can lead to breaking opponents down if his game is on.
Green is also a solid wrestler. He averages 1.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 74 percent. Historically he’s tough to take down and hold down.
Even against Pimblett, it was Green who got the takedown and was then submitted from Pimblett’s guard. He’s given up takedowns to plenty of fighters over the years but he’s underrated as a defensive wrestler and scrambler.
Really, part of this analysis has to be the form of Green. I know that Gibson is decent, but Gibson isn’t easily going to be able to take Green down and submit him. On the feet, Green can bounce around and throw strikes but I’d favor Green moderately as a boxer and especially over three rounds, given his volume and experience.
I could also see Green just dying early. Maybe by KO. Maybe by sub. I really don’t know what to expect. I honestly think the short notice helps him as a fighter in the sense he’s not one that needs a hard training camp, but I really don’t know where his head is at.
Ultimately there are a lot of outcomes here because of it. The fight could go the distance as both guys have good cardio historically. I could see the fight being competitive.
I also think Green is pretty likely to hurt Gibson over the duration if this fight plays out on the feet. Gibson just doesn’t take damage well and Green can land so many shots to the head.
I think Gibson can probably take Green down too, and maybe take his back. Maybe win a round or two with grappling control, but that’d be a historically poor loss for Green so it’s tough to rely on any singular outcome here.
I kind of lean toward Green for historics and volume but I can’t really count on him to perform at the top level, and wouldn’t be surprised if he lost or was finished in ugly fashion.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Green by Decision (Confidence=Medium)