UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Vettori 2 (3/15/25)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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MAIN CARD

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

Fight Odds: Vettori -155, Dolidze +134

Odds to end ITD: +155

DraftKings Salaries: Vettori 8.2k, Dolidze 8k

Weight Class: 205

A rematch from 2023 that nobody asked for, Marvin Vettori will return to the cage after a two-year layoff to face Roman Dolidze in this weekend’s main event.

Vettori hasn’t fought since June of 2023 where he lost to Jared Cannonier by decision, and largely took a beating after having some early success. I still thought he performed well in totality but it was an excellent performance by Cannonier as well, who we know is one of the tougher outs in this division.

Prior to that, Vettori squeezed out a decision over Dolidze in March that had many crying robbery, but again, I thought Vettori performed well and probably deserved the nod.

At the same, I feel comfortable in who Vettori is at this stage of his career, and he’s no longer a fighter I am very high on. I once thought he had title aspirations but he’s just not dangerous enough, and his Fight IQ is questionable, among other things. He’s still a decent fighter and probably the deserving favorite in this rematch.

When the two last squared off, the dynamic was clear and I believe it will be clear again. Vettori is the more consistent and higher paced kickboxer, and he should be able to land move volume over the course of five rounds.

Dolidze is the bigger power threat, and had the tendency to come forward which provided better optics. However, he cannot keep up the same pace as Vettori which was a real problem.

Additionally, both sides are competent grapplers but I’d argue that Dolidze has the higher upside at this stage of his career, while Vettori is more likely to use his grappling defensively.

Dolidze actually only attempted one takedown in that last fight against Vettori, and failed to secure it. He was outstruck 106-71 in total, and lost each round on the numbers, 38-29, 28-16 and 40-26.

Dolidze did throw some big shots early that had Vettori stumbling around, but he survived. Vettori wasn’t really able to hurt Dolidze but he did land 38 leg strikes over 15 minutes while Dolidze landed strikes primarily to the head.

Vettori is just a bit more diverse. He can kick as well as punch, and he has more experience in five-round fights.

Even in that loss to Cannonier, Vettori actually landed 153 sig. strikes. He absorbed a whopping 241 but again, Dolidze cannot keep up that kind of pace.

The last time we saw Dolidze fight in a five rounder, he had really nothing for Imavov despite only losing by majority decision. Dolidze was outlanded 112 to 34 in that fight, and only landed 8, 5, 8, 6 and 7 sig. strikes per round. Honestly pathetic.

Historically, Dolidze lands 3.16 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.38 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. Vettori lands 4.56 per minute while absorbing 4.24 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.

Vettori is clearly more capable on the volume side and has reached totals of 190, 164 and 153 in five-round fights. He also lands 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes though he’s largely abandoned his wrestling in recent years.

I do think Dolidze has more power, but Vettori is hard to get out of there. Vettori has never been knocked out, or even knocked down in the UFC in 15 fights while competing against the likes of Cannonier, Adesanya, Whittaker and Costa. So it makes the pure power dynamic difficult for Dolidze when his actual chances of putting Vettori out cold feel minimal.

We’ve seen both sides slow down at times but Vettori simply keeps up the higher pace and I have to favor him over the course of five rounds to land more volume.

The wrestling is one interesting angle though, as Vettori has looked worse and worse on the mat in recent years. He gave up four takedowns to Cannoneir which is pretty concerning, and that’s where Dolidze thrives.

Dolidze just can’t produce much offense and only lands 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes himself. When on top, he is a dangerous submission grappler though and has fight-ending ability. I’m just not sure he can attempt many takedowns and land them against Vettori, who is still competent and defends at 69 percent in total.

To sum it up, I have to favor Vettori here based on historics. He’s a higher volume striker, with more five-round experience, and he’s super tough to finish. Dolidze has enough power to win some moments though, and perhaps has more grappling equity in this matchup than in his past one.

I do not particularly trust Vettori in general, nor do I trust him coming off a two-year layoff. He might not look great and could get tired late. But Dolidze lands so little volume that Vettori should still be able to keep up with him and surpass him in theory. If Dolidze can swing a few rounds with moments or top time though, I wouldn’t be shocked. It’s just tough to project with any confidence.

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On DraftKings, this is the third week in a row where I have some real concerns for the main event from a fantasy perspective, but I expect I will be forced into targeting it due to the dynamic of the slate.

Vettori is priced at 8.2k and he’s a pretty safe option, but I don’t think he has incredible upside. Largely, I’m worried that he won’t attempt takedowns which will severely cut his floor/ceiling combination in a win.

He can still rack up volume, but Dolidze doesn’t absorb strikes at a super high pace, so something like 130-140 sig. strikes over five rounds is in play. That would still put Vettori near the 90 point mark, but if he scores 88 in a decision and misses the optimal lineup, I would not be shocked.

Vettori is only +525 to win ITD as well in a matchup that’s -190 to go the full five-round distance, which is awful.

At 8.2k, it’s still not a massive risk, and I definitely think Vettori can exceed value in a victory. For that reason alone he’s a pretty solid option and a strong secondary target. You can argue he’s not a primary target though as 1-2 takedowns from Dolidze could minimize his striking volume and he simply doesn’t have many other paths to scoring.

On the other side, Dolidze is more moment dependent which is tricky. He only landed 71 sig. strikes in the last fight and would have scored a pathetic 59 points in a win. Over five rounds, 120 sig. strikes is possible though it would be a career high, and that would still only equate to 70 DK points.

I think for Dolidze to really reach a ceiling, he needs a knockdown, or grappling success. I wouldn’t be shocked by either, but again Vettori has never been knocked down. Takedowns might come easier but Dolidze doesn’t even average 1.5 per 15 minutes so it’s hard to project.

I still think the higher upside fighter is Dolidze though. If he can wrestle a bit, suddenly 1-2 takedowns is an additional 10 points + top control time + ground strikes + a potential finishing threat. He’s only +225 to win ITD which is far better than Vettori’s but still not elite.

I don’t mind using Dolidze as a secondary target as well, and you could prioritize him outright, simply hoping he reaches a ceiling. He’s the more fan friendly fighter and coming off a 115 point win, there’s a decent chance Dolidze is the higher owned fighter of the two. He certainly may be given the ITD discrepancy alone.

It’s just worth mentioning again that Dolidze isn’t processed, and cannot produce much offense. So he’s not a safe pick to win at all, nor to reach a ceiling unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat (possible).

I don’t have a strong take here. I’ll have exposure to both sides, but I don’t think I will lean dramatically toward one side or the other. Dolidze is certainly higher upside on paper but Vettori is the easy pick to win based on data. There’s also a decent chance that if we don’t see wrestling, neither fighter may reach 90 points and it’s therefore worth building in a fade of the main event as part of your portfolio as well.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vettori by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Fight Odds: Zaleski -200, Njokuani +170

Odds to end ITD: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Zaleski 8.4k, Njokuani 7.8k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is entering his 11th year on the roster at the not so ripe age of 38 years old, but he’s shown he can still go – he’s 11-4-1 in the UFC and 25-8-1 as a pro. Chidi Njokuani was a long time Bellator staple who came over to the UFC via Contender Series back in 2021. He went 2-3 at 185 lbs. but moved down to 170 last year where he’s since gone 2-0 in his new weight class – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 24-10 as a pro.

The striking component:

Zaleski comes from a capoeira background and has shown a diverse striking arsenal throughout his run.   

He lands 4.3 SLpM at 42% but is right around the divisional average at distance, so he traditionally isn’t a high volume guy but he’s shown he can land more significant strikes in certain matchups that are more suitable for volume.   

He has been in some closer striking affairs, but it does need to be noted that he’s been fighting almost exclusively top 25 guys since entering the UFC back in 2016.      

Zaleski doesn’t throw a ton of straight punches but has good hooks, nasty kicks and a good clinch game to boot.      

Also, pretty impressive in that he’s out struck some pretty solid UFC strikers in Good, Griffin, Kunchenko, and he finished Strickland and Akhmedov. He was competitive in his losses to both Li and Salikhov as well – many thought he won the Salikhov fight and that’s not an easy guy to look good against.      

His defensive metrics are respectable, eating 3.4 SApM but at 57% but we’ve seen him hurt in numerous fights throughout his career and specifically early in his outings against Nurmagomedov and Fakhretdinov. Getting hurt by Nurmagomedov isn’t the best of looks which does indicate some signs of regression with him now at 37 years old.   

In his defense, he hung tough in both outings, going on to edge out the Nurmagomedov fight and score a 10-8 in the 3rd against Fakhretdinov, so he doesn’t have quit in him.   

It’s been the guys who have been able to play effective games from the outside that have beaten him or tightened margins – we saw that in his last fight against Brown.      

Overall, Zaleski has proven his worth as a striker in this division and isn’t going to be an easy out on the feet, but his style can lead him to fighting in the margins.

Njokuani comes from a kickboxing background which is on display in his fights.      

He’s a very long guy who likes to fight at range and prefers to kick more than punch.      

He’s pretty technical and accurate but his volume tends to be on the lower end so he’s traditionally not going out there and “pacing” guys standing per say. He does have a solid clinch game though with sound elbows and good knees in which he’s been able to hurt the bulk of his most recent opponents.   

I still don’t think he’s a gigantic hitter in terms of his punching but it’s more so his timing that has given him some credence to finishes or hurting opponents.      

He was able to hand Barriault his first KO loss with a well-placed shot behind the ear which adds to that sniper merit – although I do think it was somewhat of a memey outcome.      

Defensively, he’s largely sound in the scenarios at range where he can utilize his length as he’s pretty cognoscente of using head movement and footwork.      

However, it’s been when guys have been able to get inside on him with effective pressure to where he struggles. More specifically recently in his fights with Rodrigues and Oleksiejczuk.  

His durability is of concern at this point as he’s been KO’d in two of his last three losses.   

Overall, he’s a good striker but does work in a style that can lead to tighter margins if he can’t secure finishes – this is what cost him against Duraev – controversial or not.

How it plays out: Off the top, Njokuani will realize a decided size advantage of 4” in height and 7” in reach. Both guys match up pretty well on the feet as the range exchanges are likely competitive but I’d favor Zaleski in his blitzing attacks, and I’d favor Njokuani in clinching scenarios. Both guys’ durability is a tad concerning at this point and both can be dangerous so it adds another layer of variance.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Outside of his capoeira background, Zaleski is a BJJ black belt under Christiano Marcello.   

However, he hasn’t been much of a wrestling threat in the aggregate as he primarily likes to stand and strike. As a result, he only lands 0.7 TDs per 15 minutes at just 21% — in his defense, he’s fought a lot of sound TD defenders in his run. 

But he landed four TDs in his last outing against Brown which aided in him winning the 2nd round and tightening the margins in that fight. He also got on top of Fakhretdinov late in their fight and nearly finished.       

He has struggled with TDD at times in the earlier part of his UFC career but has since been solid, despite his TDD number sitting at 68%.      

Prior to his last couple of bouts, Akhmedov was the best wrestler that he’s fought in the UFC – Akhmedov went 3/7 on TDs and only got one minute of control – Zaleski was able to threaten, sweep and reverse positions on all occasions.      

He did have some struggles with Nakamura and Dalby as well but won the Nakamura fight and the Dalby fight was a split.      

The control time Nakamura was primarily able to accrue was earlier on in the fight and from back positions.     

It’s important to note that those fights are from over eight years ago – nobody’s had extended wrestling success on Dos Santos since.      

Even more recently, Nurmagomedov only went 1/8 – he was able to get Zaleski down at the end of the 2nd round but nearly all Nurmagomedov’s six minutes of control came against the fence – I think that’s a testament to Zaleski’s improved TDD over the years.   

Fakhretdinov only went 1/9, getting a little over four minutes of control with chunks of that coming against the fence.    

Zaleski hasn’t been an overt submission threat, but he uses his BJJ very well defensively and can threaten front chokes on entry. You have to go back all the way to 2013 for the last time he was submitted.      

Overall, as noted, guys have had some success on him in this realm but he’s not going to be an easy guy to take down and hold down. 

With Njokuani coming from that kickboxing background, we don’t see him wrestle much but he has mixed it in here and there regionally – he’s a BJJ black belt as well.      

But the guys that he’s able to take down or have ground based success on just haven’t been very good and despite his black belt status, he’s only got one pro win via submission in a lengthy career.      

He was able to get on top of Sousa at multiple points on DWCS and finish with GNP but that was also a product of Njokuani reversing once and Sousa pulling guard though. The ground has actually been a primary struggle for him in all six of his last losses to Koreshkov, Salter, Carvalho, Rodrigues, Duraev and Oleksiejczuk.  

He got subbed by Salter, clipped and pounded out by Koreshkov, struggled with the general pressure in the cage exchanges/top control from Carvalho, gassed out against Rodrigues and got thrown down with a lazy TD and pounded out. Duraev took the 1st via wrestling and Oleksiejczuk recently pounded him.    

I will say that he fared better in grappling exchanges in nullifying dominant positions/hooks against him in both the Sousa and Dusko fights. But I still have bigger concerns with him if he does get flattened with his shoulders on the mat and is tired.      

Overall, I’d say the floor is more of a weakness for Njokuani, but his defensive wrestling has gotten a bit better since the earlier portions of his career.  

How it plays out: Both guys are not very willing wrestlers and have had some historic struggles on the bottom. But I ultimately give Zaleski more upside because he has shown more willingness to wrestle than Njokuani and I trust his get-up game far more than Njokuani’s, should either guy be grounded. But Njokuani could accrue cage minutes here.

Interesting fight as the move down to 170 appears to be a good one for Njokuani but it does need to be contextualized that his two recent wins at the weight class have come against bottom of the barrel 170s in McKee and Gooden. Despite Zaleski aging, he’s a good sized step up in competition and more on par with the level of guys that Njokuani traditionally loses to. Stylistically, it’s an interesting fight given what’s ran through above, but I do feel Zaleski is the deserved favorite and he’ll be my pick to win – not a super bullish take though.

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On DraftKings, I don’t mind targeting this fight for finishing equity though it’s a bit tough to be comfortable with either side.

I definitely expect Zaleski to be the primary target of the two publicly. He’s been bet up and is now -200 to win, so at 8.4k, he’s going to rate out as a value. Especially with a +120 ITD line while coming off a 95-point RD 1 KO win.

At the same time, I do like Zaleski. Njokuani has folded in a couple of recent matchups, and he can be taken down and he can tire. So it gives Zaleski multiple paths to win and finish.

With that said, if Zaleski simply fights a competitive fight on the feet and it extends, he’ll likely bust, as there is zero guarantee of grappling. 

At 8.4k, it’s not a major risk to take though. He rates out very well for the price in terms of finishing upside, and ML value, and he could be a very popular target outright. I’m not sure I’ll be taking any real stand against the field here but I like Zaleski for the price a good amount and will likely have moderate exposure.

Njokuani is likely going to be the leverage side at 7.8k.

He is coming off a 100 point decision win but that’s kind of BS and not super repeatable as he got more than nine minutes of control, primarily in the clinch, and he landed an additional 60 non-sig. strikes. He doesn’t have much wrestling in his game and I primarily consider him a boom or bust striker, who is dependent on an early KO.

However, he is dangerous and experienced. And Zaleski can occasionally be hurt. Zaleski doesn’t get finished often but he’s been knocked down by a few different opponents over the years. He’s been knocked down 2x and 3x in a fight before actually, one of which he won..

I’m not a huge fan of targeting Njokuani and I don’t think this is the best matchup, but if Zaleski is far more popular, it certainly makes sense to mix Njokuani in for the leverage. He is only +325 to win ITD, but he will probably need damage to win and I don’t think a KO is a crazy outcome considering his pedigree.

I’ll likely fall in line with the field here too as I just trust him less, but with the fight projected -160 to end inside the distance overall, it’s a decent mid-range matchup to have moderate exposure to.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zaleski by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

SeungWoo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos

Fight Odds: Vallejos -596, Choi +429

Odds to end ITD: -325

DraftKings Salaries: Vallejos 9.1k, Choi 7.1k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a gunfight here between UFC debutant Kevin Vallejos and UFC veteran SeungWoo Choi.

Vallejos is an Argentine fighter who is 14-1 professionally and 23 years old. Vallejos actually fought the extremely popular Jean Silva on the Contender Series in September of 2023 when he was 21. He actually lost a very competitive 29-28 decision and was outlanded 87-71 in significant strikes. Vallejos got the better of Silva early but Silva landed the better power shots in the second half of the fight and was rightfully given the decision. That loss aged quite well and Vallejos was able to show off his boxing skills and durability in that matchup.

Vallejos later had a second chance on the Contender Series against Cam Teague. Vallejos dominated Teague and knocked him out in round one. Vallejos showed off his boxing combinations and threw some fast hands, and worked the body very well. The boxing combinations were awesome by Vallejos in that matchup and he relentlessly swarmed Teague to the body when he had him hurt. I always like when fighters attack the body.

Vallejos is very much a boxer. I actually like his hands. He has some fast hands and can mix it up to the head and body. He also likes to mix in a low leg kick from the orthodox stance. He has good power as well, and 10 of his 14 wins have come by knockout. He is also just tough as nails. He has never been finished and surviving Jean Silva in a 15 minute striking bout definitely shows that he is tough.

Vallejos can grapple a little. He isn’t a skilled grappler, but he is pretty physical and can get some occasional body lock takedowns, and ride top position and land ground-and-pound. He only has a couple submission wins in his career and I don’t consider him a good submission grappler, but he seems to work through the motions a bit and he seems competent and positionally sound. I want to see more of his grappling tested though, especially defensively.

I think Vallejos is a good addition to the UFC and he should be in some fun action fights in general. He can definitely do well on the feet in the UFC.

Vallejos will be taking on SeungWoo Choi. Standing at 6’0” with a 74” reach, Choi is a physical presence in the cage. He uses his length to aid his striking game. Choi lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.12 in return. He defends strikes at a poor 47 percent.

I kind of don’t know what to think of Choi on the feet at this point. He has had some really good performances in the cage. I thought he looked quite good against Yousef Zalal, and he has shown some flashes of big power as well. However, he has looked poor lately and has been knocked down SIX times in his last four fights. I thought he looked underwhelming against Josh Culibao and Michael Trizano. He most recently was knocked out by Steve Garcia. I just never know what to expect from him. His durability surely seems to be a weakness and I do not trust his chin.

Choi doesn’t grapple often and only lands 0.86 takedown per 15 minutes. He defends takedowns at a decent 70 percent. I think he will get outgrappled by the top grapplers of the division but his defensive grappling is probably good enough to nullify the grappling of a lot of the division. He has been prone to back takes more than anything as both Caceres and Tucker RNCd him.

Choi is just an okay action fighter IMO. He has some power, is physical, and is capable of obtaining top position on guys. However, he has had low volume in some matchups and has been hurt and outgrappled in matchups. So there are plenty of ways for him to lose.

As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will probably strike. I don’t really expect either guy to dominate on the mat but I suppose either guy could get top position because neither are the most accomplished grapplers in the world.

I still think the winner of the striking will be the winner of the fight though. I honestly just like the inside boxing of Vallejos more and I think he is the more durable fighter. Vallejos is just very dangerous and hits hard and I just think Choi’s chin will probably get cracked at some point. Usually when Choi gets hit hard, he doesn’t respond well. So honestly, I just think these guys will bang it out and Choi will be more likely to be hurt. I do think Vallejos winning by knockout seems to be the most likely outcome of the fight.

Choi is still reasonably skilled and dangerous though, and he is just so much bigger than Vallejos. Choi will have a six inch height advantage which is just enormous. Striking is also very high-variance so if Choi happened to hurt Vallejos, I wouldn’t be shocked.

I still am picking Vallejos here though as I just think he will get the inside boxing exchanges that he wants and eventually hurt Choi.

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On DraftKings, I expect Vallejos to be among the most popular fighters on the entire slate at 9.1k.

He’s been bet up since open and is now sitting at a near -600 price tag, putting himself very much in line with You and Musasa as the heaviest favorite this weekend. However, he’s only 9.1k instead of 9.5k and 9.4k. Plus, people will see how often Choi has been knocked down recently so it’s a bit of an obvious play.

With that said, Vallejos is another very boom or bust target. We’ve had a lot of these recently and they’ve basically all come through. It’s just going to give the public more confidence in these types.

I do think Vallejos can win by KO but in his fight against Silva, he landed 71 sig. strikes in 15 minutes. Had he been awarded the decision, he would have scored 58.4 DK points. Against Teague he landed 48 sig. strikes in round one though – Teague is largely a punching bag but I do think Vallejos has more volume upside than he showed against Silva.

Regardless, he’s likely not going to wrestle, and Choi also doesn’t absorb strikes at a super high clip. Volume won’t get it done here. Vallejos needs a knockout.

Fortunately, the UFC is intentionally giving him a guy who’s been knocked down by four opponents in a row, and some of them aren’t great strikers. So it’s pretty clear Vallejos has potential. I really like his boxing combinations and I think he’s a potentially very strong prospect. He’s -275 to win ITD.

At 9.1k, I’m probably going to have a lot of Vallejos by default. He’s just an easy click at this price tag for upside. When I can pay up further, I’ll absolutely consider other options though.

I expect Vallejos to be very popular so there’s definitely merit to strategically coming in underweight. But he’s going to rate out very well, albeit boom or bust, and having moderate exposure at 9.1k is a fair place to land.

Choi at 7.1k doesn’t interest me much.

I’ve backed him at times and I remember picking him to beat Zalal as a big dog (which he did, kind of funny in hindsight). But he’s just low-volume and has topped 56 sig. strikes once in 10 UFC fights. He doesn’t really wrestle.

Maybe he could hurt Vallejos but I wouldn’t bet on it. He’s +850 to win ITD. Otherwise I don’t see much of a ceiling if he pulls off a very competitive split decision type of win.

Choi will be super low owned and extreme leverage, but otherwise I don’t see a lot of merit to investing in him. I will be very light myself.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vallejos by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Fight Odds: Hernandez -200, Holobaugh +170

Odds to end ITD: +135

DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.6k, Holobaugh 7.6k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Alexander Hernandez got the call to the UFC back in 2018 as a short notice replacement and scored a huge upset win/viral knockout over Beneil Dariush which put his name on the map. However, Hernandez hasn’t lived up to expectations since – he’s 7-7 in the UFC and 15-8 as a pro. Kurt Holobaugh was a part of the inaugural season of Contender Series back in 2017 but got bounced out of the promotion in his 1st stint while going 0-3. But he won the TUF 31 season four years later which earned him a 2nd promotional stay, and he’s since gone 2-1 – he’s 21-8 as a pro.

The striking component:

Hernandez has traditionally worked a pressure-based style; however, he’s shown some passivity in certain fights as well. In saying that, he’s still putting up some decent numbers (outside of the Trinaldo/Moises fights) but he’s more movement based and looking to fight in blitzes.    

Despite getting TKO’d by Dober, he did have a solid start to the fight, but it was the pressure and volume of Dober that got to him. Against Gruetzmacher, despite a step down in competition, his striking looked much more fluid and it seemed that his technical striking acumen had made some strides.   

The Moises fight was pretty competitive but he just got edged out – he smoked Breeden early – had a decent start against Moicano but broke under pressure. Similar scenario in his fight against Quarantillo – he edged out Miller – he just got out worked by Algeo, and most recently, the striking in the Jackson and Hubbard fights were competitive. 

Statistically, his output is slightly above average, landing 4.4 SLpM at 41% but there has been some grinding in some of his fights and the Trinaldo fight was just a staring contest, which is going to skew that number down.   

Hernandez likes to mix in kicks and he works a more darting in and out style with hooks and overhands. He’s not the tallest guy in the division so this is a style that he pretty much has to implement for him to be successful. Important to note that he does have power as well, finishing three of his seven UFC wins by KO.     

The main issue with Hernandez comes with his defense as he eats 4.6 SApM while defending at 57%, and he has been hurt in five of his seven UFC losses. 

Overall, I think the movement, pace (at times) and the darting in and out nature puts Hernandez as an above-average offensive striker but he’s going to still struggle with effective pressure or better range games.

Holobaugh falls more into the technical brawler category in the sense that he likes to come forward and mix it up in the pocket, but he’s shown some tools in doing so. He’s not much of a kicker but has some good combinations in tight and tends to keep a pretty consistent work rate.

I wouldn’t say he’s a huge hitter but definitely sits down on his punches and has some pop, with seven of his 21 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.  

We saw him KO Bessette on DWCS, land some flush shots on Barcelos (actually out landed him at distance), drop Burgos, KO his two most recent regional opponents and finish Knight off with strikes in the semifinals on TUF. Knight isn’t anything special but a historic tough dude who’d only been finished with strikes once prior to that. He also outlanded both Hubbard and Kruschewsky in his most recent wins.    

Defensively is where his primary issues lie as he’s eaten 4.35 SApM at 47% and nearly 8 distance per minute at 52% through his documented UFC run.   

But he’s also had to fight some solid guys in there and has generally proven durable throughout his career. His lone KO loss came to Barcelos late in their fight, which was a war with a nasty uppercut.   

What I will say though is that Holobaugh’s defense does seem to be a bit better from his 1st stint where he’s utilized some more head movement and is getting his guard back up in the pocket exchanges.   

Overall, Holobaugh’s not going be the easiest of guys to deal with on the feet because he’s going to come to fight.   

How it plays out: Both guys are hittable but the overall defensive numbers favor Hernandez and the distance offensive numbers heavily favor Holobaugh. Hernandez has more conventional power than Holobaugh but Holobaugh has more attritional elements to his game and he’s who I trust more in an extended fight in terms of pacing and optics. There’s sufficient arguments to be made both ways but macro wise, the dynamic is Hernandez early and Holobaugh late.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Hernandez is a respectable entry-based wrestler when he chooses to pursue and is a BJJ black belt.     

His TD metrics are underwhelming though, landing only 0.9 per 15 minutes at 29% and he’s really struggled with control in the UFC outside of his fight with OAM where he was able to get nearly eight minutes of control time.     

But to Hernandez’s credit, he hasn’t exactly had the easiest of guys to “grind”. I thought he would against Dober, but Dober’s leveled up quite significantly in recent years.     

You actually have to go back to his regional footage where that was really his bread and butter, getting the large majority of his fights down and scoring more ground-based finishes. In that, he’s got a good back take and RNC, but we haven’t seen a ton of offensive grappling prowess from him in the UFC outside of his fight with OAM and a brief arm-triangle against Billy Q.  

Defensively, we haven’t seen him tested much outside of his fight with Moicano.  

He actually put-up good resistance early on against Moicano but eventually got choked out after getting tagged on the feet – no shame really as Moicano is a monster on the floor.    

He also started to eat heavy ground strikes from Billy Q in the 2nd round and did get threatened with a choke at the end of the Miller fight.

But the wrestling of Jackson played a pivotal role in that decision where Hernandez conceded three TDs and six minutes of control.

Overall, despite our sample, it’s still a bit difficult to assess Hernandez’ ground game at this point in time because any real defensive issues have been primarily damage and cardio based.  

Holobaugh comes from a grappling background where he holds a black belt in BJJ. But the ground has been up and down with him throughout his more recent career.   

He hasn’t been the most proactive wrestler but definitely has submission competency, with 10 of his pro wins coming via sub.   

He subbed Hammond in his 1st TUF fight after being able to reverse position with a guillotine and finish, but he was losing the overall wrestling and grappling exchanges up until that point.   

He got to Hubbard’s back but it was off a failed TDA from Hubbard – he eventually went to mount and hit an armbar triangle transition to eventually finish. Hubbard was winning the early wrestling exchanges though.   

We recently saw him get held down for the large majority of the fight against Ogden and he conceded some ground time against Kruschewsky, but avoided some viable sub attempts.

Barcelos and Moises were also able to outwrestle Holobaugh – Moises more so in being able to accrue higher amounts of top time – he worked up better under Barcelos. His general hips are kind of trash to be honest and as he’s only stuffing TDs at 42%. 

But Holobaugh does have an aggressive guard and will look to sweep and create space. The times he’s gotten controlled have been when the opponents have really prioritized that, but he can work up if given the proper space.   

Overall, the ground is a bit jekyll and hyde for Holobaugh, but I’d still classify it as more of a negative than a positive when fighting a better brand of competition.  

How it plays out: Both guys have underwhelming wrestling metrics but Hernandez is the better wrestler of the two who’s conceded less overall minutes on the bottom. But what’s interesting is that Hernandez hasn’t been as proactive of a wrestler and he gets tired doing so anyway, so I’m not sure how much wrestling is actually in his game plan. He could definitely get earlier top time on Holobaugh though. Similar to the striking, I could see Holobaugh’s offensive wrestling opening up on the back end of this fight if Hernandez slows down and he’s probably the more likely party to score a submission.

Tricky fight as are most with Hernandez given his inconsistency coupled with Holobaugh getting into many back and forth exchanges. I think favoring Hernandez on youth and power is probably fair but Holobaugh isn’t the type of fighter you want to slow down against which is why I consider him a very live underdog this week and will actually pick him for the upset. Hernandez has shown the dog in him sometimes but the reality is when Hernandez isn’t finishing his opponents, he’s never cleanly won and his fights are always close. Give me the mangy vet to probably struggle early but turn the tides in round two to edge out a greasy decision.

—

On DraftKings, this is an interesting matchup and one I plan on targeting.

I just love Holobaugh. He’s been a favorite of mine since his first run in the UFC, and I’ve notoriously picked him to win in too many fights. In fact, it’s possible I’ve picked him to win every single time since 2018.

He’s just so aggressive, and he has the pacing to break opponents. What I’ve absolutely hated recently though is his defensive wrestling. I am far more concerned about him getting held down for long periods of time now than I was before, and I am worried about that in this particular matchup. I also don’t think Hernandez fairs well in brawls so it does set up well for Holobaugh if he can extend the fight.

Holobaugh is probably the easier target of the two for me at 7.6k. There aren’t many dogs I like but Holobaugh is one of them.

I’m still not the biggest fan of him this week and don’t think it’s an easy matchup, but Hernandez just doesn’t win rounds easily and he has a lot of issues. He can tire and he can be hurt. Holobaugh is a really dangerous fighter and I do think there’s some potential he breaks Hernandez and finds a finish.

Holobaugh is +240 to win ITD which is a better number than what Hernandez has, and so he’ll rate out well enough for 7.6k. He could be popular-ish coming off a 102 and 101 point win in his last couple of victories, but I consider him a quality secondary target overall.

You definitely don’t have to prioritize Holobaugh though. I don’t think he has much wrestling equity here and strikes alone may not lead to a big score. I really like the pricing + the style of Holobaugh in that he’ll fight aggressively for three rounds, and we’ve seen Hernandez get broken in the past. There’s risk but he’s a good secondary option for the price tag with some upside.

Hernandez at 8.6k feels like a potentially very strong tournament target to me.

I do not trust him at all, but what I do trust is Holobaugh’s pacing. It means that in order for Hernandez to win, he’ll need to produce offense. It could come in the form of a knockout but it could also come in the form of multiple takedowns and lots of top control.

In Holobaugh’s UFC losses, he gave up 3 takedowns and 11 min of control to Ogden, 4 takedowns and 8 min of control to Moises, he was subbed by Burgos and he was knocked out by Barcelos. Every opponent scored well and most put up optimal scores.

Hernandez is still risky, and he’s actually only +375 to win ITD, but I don’t think the public will trust him and he probably will be the leverage side here. If he wins, he’ll probably need to do damage or wrestle and I think either outcome is possible.

I don’t want to prioritize Hernandez but if he projects to be semi-contrarian, I would be happy to come in overweight to be involved in this kind of scoring environment. He saves enough salary at 8.6k to potentially help you pay up to the top end as well.

Overall this is a decent fight to target given that scoring environment, despite it being likely to go the distance at -165. Both fighters have shown upside in their wins and both have some questionable defensive aspects of their games. It isn’t a lock fight but it’s among the handful I am happy to target this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holobaugh by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson

Fight Odds: Blackshear -503, Gibson +375

Odds to end ITD: +140

DraftKings Salaries: Blackshear 9.2k, Gibson 7k

Weight Class: 135

We have a bit of an odd booking, but I suppose a fun matchup between Da’Mon Blackshear and Cody Gibson.

Gibson is now in his second run in the promotion, having fought from 2014-15 before getting cut. He returned in 2023 and has since gone 2-2, beating both Chad Anheliger and Brian Kelleher.

Gibson is a wrestler by base and a JUCO All-American, but I’d only classify him as average as it relates to the UFC. He is averaging 2.18 takedowns per 15 minutes but in eight UFC bouts, he’s only topped two takedowns twice – one of those times came in 2014 and the other came in his most recent fight in 2024.

Gibson is also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu but again I’d only classify him as average. He pulled off a nice first-round arm-triangle submission over Kelleher, but he only holds five submission wins in his pro career.

More importantly, Gibson has been submitted four times in 10 pro losses. The most recent time came in 2017 though, so it’s fair to assume he has leveled up since, but he’s been guillotined three different times and I don’t feel fully comfortable in his defense.

On the feet, Gibson is again just average. He’s generally not a fighter you want to trust on the feet, but he’s capable and had a banger of a scrap against Brad Katona in 2023, which he lost. But he landed 164 sig. strikes over 15 minutes and absorbed 160.

Gibson has a handful of knockdowns and potentially the more positive aspect is that he’s never been knocked out. He’s been hurt before, but not enough to be stopped and over a pretty large sample.

Gibson is ultimately just a very experienced and well-rounded guy. I don’t particularly trust him in any area but he’s capable and his success will largely be matchup dependent. Landing five takedowns and controlling Anheliger for 12:25 in his last matchup is one example of that.

Now he’s a huge dog against Da’Mon Blackshear, who is surely the better prospect of the two and is coming off a solid first-round submission win over Cody Stamann in November.

Blackshear is now 3-3-1 in the UFC but he’s fought solid competition, including Montel Jackson, Mario Bautista, Farid Basharat and Youssef Zalal. He lost to all those guys, with the exception of Zalal where he earned a draw.

Blackshear isn’t a dependent grappler, but that’s clearly his biggest strength and that’s primarily where he’s going to excel at this level.

He isn’t the best pure wrestler, but he’s solid and seems to be improving. He averages 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and has topped out at four against Bautista.

Where he’s truly strong is on the mat though, as a black belt in jiu-jitsu, Blackshear is crafty and can tangle you up. He’s got a diverse arsenal of submission including a Twister which he hit on Jose Johnson in 2023. Of his 15 pro wins, 10 have come by submission.

I don’t love Blackshear’s defensive wrestling though, which currently stands at 68 percent. Most who have wanted to take him down have had success, and he can be controlled a bit, though he’s strong enough as a defensive grappler to survive.

Blackshear gassed out a bit against Zalal in his UFC debut and also struggled late against Bautista, but his cardio isn’t awful.

On the feet, Blackshear is mediocre but improving. I used to think he had nothing to offer outside of the occasional kick, but he’s shown more power components as of late.

He hurt Stamann badly with a flying knee and then rocked him after with a straight that directly led to the submission. He also landed 90 sig. strikes in 15 minutes against Bautista, which was spread out well between the head, body and legs.

His other two UFC decisions had more wrestling but he only landed 27 and 46 sig. strikes in those fights. He can definitely be slow paced at times.

Blackshear was also knocked dead by Montel Jackson in 18 seconds in 2024. Jackson is a powerful guy and I don’t think Blackshear has awful durability, but it’s perhaps something to note.

Overall I think Blackshear is a very strong grappler and someone who I’d primarily want to trust against weak grapplers.

However, he’s not a stand out defensive fighter or striker and unless he has a clear grappling edge, fights can certainly be competitive and he can lose rounds.

As far as the matchup, it’s a bit of a weird one. I’m not sure either fighter is going to dominate anywhere, despite Blackshear being a huge favorite.

However, Blackshear is definitely the more tricky grappler and considering Gibson has been subbed a few times in his career, I think Blackshear has more upside of the two. I don’t think Blackshear can take Gibson down easily or often, but a few takedowns seems reasonable and it’s very possible he can wrap up a choke in the process.

At the same time, Gibson could take Blackshear down and potentially consolidate some top control.

If the fight plays out on the feet, I’d guess it would be competitive. I’d probably favor the speed and range kicking game of Blackshear but Gibson is tough to hurt and Blackshear usually isn’t the type to have success in a war.

The career trajectory is certainly positive for Blackshear and I think favoring him on that alone makes sense. That, and his superior submission grappling. I really wouldn’t be shocked if he submitted Gibson along the way.

It’s just also hard to project a high volume of takedowns and control for Blackshear unless he can just sit on Gibson’s back for minutes at a time. Excluding the dominant positions on the mat for Blackshear, I would expect the fight to be competitive as Gibson is very experienced, and he could strike/wrestle enough to swing a round or two potentially.

—

On DraftKings, Blackshear is priced up to 9.2k which will make him difficult to prioritize in a strong top range.

With that said, Blackshear has shown upside. He’s scored 114, 115 and 101 in his three UFC wins, though they’ve all come ITD. He’s only +160 to win ITD here though in a fight that’s -170 to go the distance.

If Blackshear is winning by decision, I doubt he scores enough to be optimal at this price. He just likely won’t wrestle or strike at an extreme enough rate to stand out at this price tag, though I think his wrestling base gives him a solid floor.

The other minor concern I have is that because Blackshear is submission oriented, it could actually hurt his upside. If he jumps on a guillotine choke, that won’t score as well as a KD or several takedowns with GnP and a RNC. He has zero knockdowns in the UFC thus far.

I don’t completely hate Blackshear though. He’s shown finishing ability and he’s priced cheaper than some other high-end targets. Especially if I can’t afford to pay up, I don’t mind mixing in Blackshear. I also think he can realistically submit Gibson given his trickiness on the mat, and if he does, it probably comes early.

It’s just not a stand out play here as without the submission, Blackshear probably misses the optimal. He’s a quality secondary target overall though since takedowns and a sub are within the range of outcomes.

Gibson at 7k probably isn’t worth a big investment.

My only hesitation is that he has paths to victory. He could strike competitively with Blackshear and he could land takedowns. I just don’t think he can do much with the takedowns and Blackshear isn’t the type to absorb a lot of strikes.

So realistically, Gibson’s ceiling is capped in this matchup. He is +800 to win ITD which makes sense.

He’s also coming off a 92 and 111 point score, and we’ve already seen Blackshear knocked dead. He’s experienced enough to potentially give Blackshear a challenge. 

At a lower ownership with leverage, I don’t think Gibson is the worst low-end target. But he’s only a low-end target who won’t rate out particularly well, and I’m expecting Blackshear to likely edge him out everywhere and get his hand raised.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blackshear by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

SuYoung You vs. AJ Cunningham

Fight Odds: You -633, Cunningham +450

Odds to end ITD: -140

DraftKings Salaries: You 9.5k, Cunningham 6.7k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am looking forward to this fight between SuYoung You and AJ Cunningham. I say that mostly because I think You looks like a solid fighter and I am excited to see him perform again this weekend. We bet You big in his Road to UFC championship final against Baergeng Jieleyisi and he dominated the fight.

You is a Korean fighter who is 14-3 professionally. His losses have come to good competition and he has a few solid wins as well. He is 29 years old.

You comes from a grappling background and is a BJJ black belt. You can see the grappling in his game, and I consider him a solid wrestler capable of landing a ton of takedowns in a fight. In two of his Road to UFC fights, he landed four and eight takedowns. His takedowns are legitimately good and diverse. He has throws in his game, a good double leg, and a good snatch single. I actually think his takedowns are like American / Russian good and not just Asian good. He also has fantastic takedown defense and a great get-up game. Not many people are going to take and hold You down even at the UFC level. He is generally going to win the positional battle in his fights.

I have seen You control many opponents. I consider his top game pretty good and he is a capable submission grappler who can advance position and ride position. He can also lock in occasional body triangles. He has five submission wins in his career and has never been submitted. He can also wrestle for a hard three rounds and I consider his cardio a strength. He has fought into the 4th and 5th rounds multiple times.

You’s weakness is probably his striking. However, I even said before his Road to UFC final fight that he could probably outstrike his opponent Jieleyisi which he did. He isn’t bad on the feet and he is functional. He has an okay jab and occasional leg kicks. However, he is a bit short and compact and a little limited as a striker in general. I do think he is very tough though, and a solid athlete. He can likely outbox underdeveloped strikers. He isn’t bad on the feet or anything but I don’t think he will thrive at the UFC level with it against good strikers.

Overall, I think You looks like a solid fighter. His wrestling is good and he should be able to beat average to below-average grapplers with it. He probably can’t dominate good wrestlers though. He also seems tough with good cardio and can go through the motions on the feet. I am pretty confident that he has a place in the UFC.

You will be taking on AJ Cunningham who is absolutely awful and was wrecked in his UFC debut against Ludovit Klein. Klein took him down a couple of times, beat him up on the feet and finished him before the first round ended.

Cunningham previously fought Steven Nguyen on the Contender Series in September of 2023, and got the shit kicked out of him and eventually finished.

Cunningham is just so hittable on the feet. I do like that he is aggressive and will swing hard, but he is just not skilled or technical on the feet at all. He keeps his head on the centerline and is going to get knocked out in the UFC again. He is a knockout waiting to happen and just takes too much punishment. He is at least big though at 5’10.”

Apparently Cunningham is a BJJ black belt and he does have some submissions on his record. The issue is that he isn’t a very good wrestler, and I don’t think his grappling even looks very good. He can be taken down himself too.

Overall I just don’t think Cunningham is UFC level. He is probably reliant on winning by random finish at this level. He just isn’t good at anything and has no defense.

As far as this matchup goes, I just think You is better everywhere. I don’t think Cunningham can wrestle You at all and You could probably land takedowns here and control Cunningham on the mat. Maybe Cunningham can survive because he is a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted, but I still do not buy his skills on the mat.

Even on the feet, I think You is better. You is just SO much better defensively and he can probably just box Cunningham up with his jab and land leg kicks. I just think Cunningham is so hittable that You may just knock him out. Cunningham simply takes too much damage.

Overall, I just think Cunningham is outgunned. Cunningham is aggressive and big though so maybe he can just clip You with something. That is really his only path to victory though as I just think You is the more well-rounded fighter with the better process.

—

On DraftKings, You is actually the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k which I suppose isn’t a surprise given the matchup.

Given You’s grappling pedigree, and the opponent in front of him, he is going to be squarely in play this week. The primary issue I suppose is that You chose not to aggressively grapple in that debut, and underperformed because of it.

It’s great from a real-life standpoint in that he has additional outs, but from a fantasy standpoint, I would much prefer he chase grappling. Especially at 9.5k, a decision win won’t cut it. You scored only 74 points in his last decision with two takedowns, and he didn’t wrestle much in rounds two or three.

Despite Cunningham being a black belt, I doubt he can compete with You on the mat. So I still think there is finishing upside, and grappling domination equity. We’ve seen You land eight takedowns on the Road to UFC which is a lot, and I still want some exposure to him for that reason. Cunningham got taken down a couple of times in round one of his last fight and I saw opportunities to take the back.

Additionally, You could have KO upside. I wouldn’t want to rely on it but Cunningham isn’t defensively sound, so he could easily get hurt. There’s just more risk here as You has already proven he can fight smart, and safely, which is tough for this price.

Plus, there are other big ITD options priced nearby. So if you wanted to prioritize Musasa or Vallejos, for example, that would be fine. It may be tough to pay up this high given the lack of underdog options.

I just think this could be a decent buyback opportunity. You’re probably getting one of the best wrestling options on the slate who is still -110 ITD at a lower ownership than others. He might even be semi-contrarian. So in that sense, I do like You and I probably want exposure to him on every slate.

It may be hard to plant my flag here given the price, and I will very likely spread out my exposure, but I won’t be ignoring You simply based on his UFC debut score.

Cunningham at 6.6k needs a knockout.

I don’t expect it and considering he’s a huge dog, I’m not going to be playing him with a limited number of lineups. He should be very low owned though and there is variance in striking exchanges. He’ll be four inches taller and longer than You so simply by being aggressive he could randomly land a shot.

Cunningham is +675 to win ITD though and is simply a low-end punt. Sprinkle him in if you wish for randomness and KO upside but he’s not a great fighter nor is this a great matchup on paper.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: You by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

UNDERCARD

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann

Fight Odds: Cortes-Acosta -171, Spann +147

Odds to end ITD: -170

DraftKings Salaries: Cortes-Acosta 8.3k, Spann 7.9k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a sloppy fight here in the heavyweight division as Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Ryan Spann will slug it out.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (I will call him Waldo to save time) is hoping to build upon his grappling based decision win against Despaigne last year.

Waldo is from the Dominican Republic, a powerhouse baseball country which was his original sport, but he was kicked out of the Cincinnati Reds’ organization after getting into a fight with a teammate. He then got into boxing training and started MMA shortly thereafter so he doesn’t have a deep fighting pedigree.

Waldo honestly is decent and has fared well in the UFC thus far against low-level competition. He is clearly best as a boxer. He relies on his hands and his jab a lot. He is a pretty good athlete for HW, and I do consider his hands decent. He has some alright speed. He has power as well, and I do think he is knockout capable in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He has decent timing on his strikes.

Waldo basically just looks to land at distance and mix in dirty boxing in the clinch. His cardio looks to at least be somewhat solid and he seems like a tough dude.

Waldo lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.60 in return. Those are good metrics and I like that he lands consistently without tiring badly. Waldo also has dominated the head strike numbers in his fights thus far and that is why I played him in his matchup against Brzeski.

Waldo doesn’t look to wrestle all that often and he doesn’t really have a ground game background, so I doubt grappling is a consistent path to victory for him at this level. However, he did recently outgrapple Robelis Despaigne which isn’t saying much but it at least showed that he can take advantage of fighters with major holes. He also may just be improving in general as he is young from an MMA career standpoint.

I have seen Waldo taken down a bit on the regionals which isn’t a good sign but he at least tried to work to his feet. He got taken down by Chase Sherman which was a VERY bad look to me and Marcos Rogerio De Lima had success on the mat against him as well. However, he did at least do the right things against De Lima and tried working up to his feet, and was generally successful in getting up. I think decent grapplers can expose Waldo, but his TDD and get-ups didn’t look all that bad against De Lima, and that fight was two years ago so he probably has improved a bit.

Waldo will be taking on Ryan Spann who will be making his heavyweight debut. I am not sure why Spann is moving to heavyweight because he has only fought at middleweight and light heavyweight in his professional career. He has missed weight before at 205 so perhaps he just doesn’t feel like cutting weight anymore.

Spann is a spaz and that is the best way to describe him. Spann just comes out like a bat out of hell and tries to finish his opponents quickly.

Spann is dangerous on the feet early, and he is capable of just throwing heat and knocking opponents dead, which he did in his last knockout win against Dominick Reyes. He also really likes to try to bully grapple opponents and try to go to a power guillotine. He is almost obsessed with the move and always goes for it.

The issue with Spann is that if he doesn’t get that early knockout or early guillotine, he just has nothing else and generally gets finished himself. He just collapses and quits honestly. I don’t respect his durability at all. He has lost three of his last four fights and he looked awful in all of them. His one win was his last matchup against OSP where he just got a quick finish which doesn’t mean much to me.

Spann is not particularly skilled at anything either. His entire game is basically reliant on early explosions. He is not good in extended striking exchanges and only defends strikes at 43 percent. He is also not good in extended wrestling exchanges and only defends takedowns at 50 percent.

I just don’t trust Spann in extended fights. Sure, he may knock Waldo out or randomly get a guillotine. However, Cortes-Acosta seems super durable and seems like he knows how to stay safe on the mat. Just because of that, I think Waldo can generally just extend the fight where he should have a major advantage in terms of toughness and cardio down the stretch. Waldo should be at a major advantage on the feet in an extended fight and will probably just knock Spann out at some point or box him up.

I do think Spann could potentially have wrestling success just because Waldo is a sloppy heavyweight and a bit green. However, I think grappling success for Spann would have to come early. I would be kind of surprised if Spann outwrestled Waldo for 15 minutes. Waldo tries to work up and Spann just doesn’t have the cardio or toughness to do it for 15 minutes if he is being resisted. Spann would just need a quick submission in my opinion.

There is just a major advantage in terms of toughness here. Waldo is very tough and won’t quit while Spann just always seems to quit when he faces adversity. My guess is Acosta survives the early storm and then just finishes Spann.

—

On DraftKings, I have some interest in this fight but I don’t think it’s a lock to score well.

The dynamic seems pretty obvious to me though and Tim laid it out plainly. Spann tends to need early success, but he doesn’t have a processed game and isn’t a round winner. Cortes-Acosta is the better boxer with better volume and cardio, so I’d favor him in an extended fight and there’s some chance he wins by KO.

I guess my hesitation is that Cortes-Acosta doesn’t need the KO to win, and he might not chase it. It would probably be smart of him not to chase it actually as he can just pick Spann apart from the outside.

Spann can definitely be hurt but he’s still only been knocked down by two of his past 14 opponents. So I’m worried Cortes-Acosta only lands a moderate amount of strikes and wins by decision, which wouldn’t result in a strong fantasy score.

Spann is the easier side to target honestly even though I am not a fan. At 7.9k, I think his win condition is more tied to a finish and more tied to early success.

He’s still not a great fantasy asset, but some dumb 94 point guillotine finish like he locked up in his last win would be a good result for 7.9k (as opposed to 9.2k where he was priced last time). He is +185 to win ITD here and has the same ITD line as Cortes-Acosta.

I am definitely not going to be high on Spann but he rates out fine for his price tag, and there is enough variance in this division to give him a shot. I’d rather be underweight than overweight and I’d honestly consider betting Cortes-Acosta outright, but I don’t feel extremely strongly about it and I wouldn’t be stunned if Spann had a couple of moments early.

Cortes-Acosta is more boom or bust, and my fear is that the fight extends and he fails to find an optimal score. He’s +185 to win ITD though and he’s probably going to be the leverage side at 8.3k.

Perhaps not as he’s been getting bet up this week and is coming off a 99 point win, but that was due to wrestling and his previous decision scored 50 points. I definitely think he needs an early-ish knockout to find an optimal score, and I’m worried enough about the fight extending to the point that I’d consider him more of a secondary target than a primary one.

If Spann actually projects to be higher owned, I’d be more interested in Cortes-Acosta because he is still a better boxer and Spann occasionally gets hurt. It’s just a more risky fantasy target. At 8.3k, he’s viable enough to mix in and makes sense when you need some additional salary relief.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Stephanie Luciano vs. Sam Hughes

Fight Odds: Luciano -230, Hughes +193

Odds to end ITD: +375

DraftKings Salaries: Luciano 8.8k, Hughes 7.4k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a prospect vs. veteran matchup here between Stephanie Luciano and Sam Hughes.

Luciano has had an interesting start to her UFC career. She fought Talita Alencar on the Contender Series to a draw back in 2023. Luciano was outgrappled a bit in the first couple of rounds by Alencar and then in round three she beat the breaks off of Alencar in a 10-8 round to even the fight. Luciano still showed some decent defensive grappling in that fight. She faced 24 takedown attempts and defended 20 of them.

Luciano then fought Alencar in a rematch in her UFC debut a year after the first matchup. I actually played Luciano because I liked a lot of what I saw in the first matchup from a defensive grappling perspective, and I thought a year would give Luciano time to improve her game. Luciano dominated Alencar in the rematch. Luciano completely shut down the grappling of Alencar. Luciano outlanded Alencar 72-41 in significant strikes and won a clean 30-27 decision.

Luciano is now 6-1-1 professionally and fights out of Brazil. She is 25 years old. She is basically a striker. I actually like her striking game a bit. She has some pretty good volume. She will throw a little bit of everything and mixes in straight punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. She likes to throw a lot of kicks from the outside and she will mix it to all levels. I would say straight punches and her kicking game from the outside are her bread and butter. She also seems to have pretty good cardio and seems tough as well.

Luciano doesn’t wrestle a ton, but it looks like she can maybe take down weak grapplers and have a little success in top position. I do think her defensive grappling is pretty decent. The rematch against Alencar just showed that she has really improved her TDD. She also worked up super quickly the one time she conceded a takedown to Alencar which I loved to see. 

I still think Luciano is a bit unproven vs. decent strikers though. Her quality of competition has been poor and Alencar just isn’t a striker. I am just curious to see how she will look when someone is walking her down and throwing back. It will be interesting to see her fight someone who is just competent as a striker.

Enter Sam Hughes who will surely walk Luciano down and come after her. Hughes does at least have a few decent aspects of her game. She is tough, pretty physical, and has good cardio. She will try very hard for 15 minutes and can wear down opponents with her grind and pressure. She has had a good third round several times, and I think her cardio / physicality will always be a weapon against the low-tier fighters of this division. She even won round three against Loma Lookboonme and Piera Rodriguez who are quality opponents.

Technically, Hughes isn’t great. She lands 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes but has a pretty good body lock takedown that is assisted by her physicality. She is decent at holding top position as well and she can grind opponents.

As a striker, I haven’t historically loved Hughes’ game as it is a bit too reliant on cardio. However, I actually really think her striking has improved. She lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.46 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. 

Again, she isn’t a good striker but she is improving and can pressure and bother fighters for 15 minutes by constantly walking them down. Hughes has okay inside boxing and can have striking success with pressure. Her hand speed also looked better in her most recent matchup vs Viktoriia Dudakova.

Hughes defends takedowns at 60 percent. She can definitely be taken down. However, she generally gets up fairly quickly.

As far as this matchup goes, I think this line may be a little off. I am expecting a pretty competitive striking fight. I think if anyone has grappling success it will be Hughes. She will probably attempt some takedowns. However, I think Luciano has the takedown defense to keep this upright and the winner of the striking exchanges should win this fight.

On the feet, I think this is close. I think Luciano is a more talented striker with more weapons. She may just be a little too diverse for Hughes and mix in all of her weapons and just land a lot.

However, Hughes is just so much more experienced than Luciano. Hughes will walk Luciano down for 15 straight minutes and throw boxing combinations, and pressure Luciano and try to clinch her. I have seen Luciano pressured and eat inside boxing exchanges on the regionals. This is a step up for Luciano too. So if Hughes just walks her down and has success, it wouldn’t surprise me at all. Also, although I don’t think Hughes will easily take Luciano down, I do think Hughes can clinch her and hold her against the cage.

So overall, I do think Hughes can have success and make this a competitive affair, and I think this goes to the cards at a high rate so this may be close.

I still think Luciano will land her strikes too though. She is more talented than Hughes and has a more diverse striking game with her kicks. Hughes also has suspect defense so Luciano will surely land. I do think I will pick Luciano just because I think she is more talented.

However, I think this is going to be a close fight and I am expecting a 29-28 type of decision where the scorecards are tight and we just have a back and forth WMMA striking fight. I am just not confident Luciano covers a -250 line when she is facing an opponent who will walk her down for three straight rounds. Luciano just has never faced that style before.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t have a ton of interest in this matchup but if anything I’d lean toward the underdog in Hughes.

Luciano is just expensive at 8.8k, and this is a stacked top range this week. I do see some merit to targeting her in what could be a WMMA war, as Hughes absorbs a lot of strikes and she can yield takedowns as well.

There is a possibility where Luciano lands 100+ sig. strikes and multiple takedowns. However, that still only puts her in the 80-90 range which is likely closer to her ceiling, and still not enough at 8.8k. Her floor is also much lower and she’s coming off a 74-point win.

Luciano likely needs to finish Hughes to really stand out. Hughes has been knocked down before but she’s super tough with good cardio, so it’s not a spot I’d want to bet on. Luciano is +575 to win ITD which sucks.

I highly doubt she’ll be popular so you can play Luciano for contrarian purposes if you wish. She also has an OK floor given the pacing. But 8.8k is just expensive and I don’t see many paths where she clearly exceeds value. I expect I will be extremely light on Luciano this week.

Hughes at 7.4k is viable though not particularly exciting.

It’s a tricky slate because although I do think some deep dogs are live, they easily could lose. So we may find ourselves in a situation where we need a cheap dog who wins but doesn’t smash, just due to the salary relief. Or we may even see a loser dog in the optimal.

Hughes at 7.4k isn’t a very talented fighter but her pacing is good. She can land strikes in volume and she could definitely land 80 strikes in a loss. That’s still only 32 DK points though.

For Hughes to really be impactful, she’ll need those takedowns as well. I don’t really trust them and I don’t think she’ll do much with them, but 2-3 is possible. If she can force a high paced fight with wrestling involved, maybe that 32 point loss turns into 45 points in a loss, or even 75 points in a win.

Hughes has scored 81 and 83 in her last two wins which is OK. Her ITD line sucks though at +650.

Hughes simply is what she is. The fight is -550 to go the distance which is the heaviest line on the slate. She can be in competitive fights and Luciano is not proven. There’s some secondary merit here due to slate dynamics.

I’d also be very careful to not be overexposed to Hughes as zero parts of her game are based on skill, and she could easily just get picked apart in a loss. But for the price of 7.4k, sure, I’ll take a few chances here and there and she may have floor-based viability.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Luciano by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Fight Odds: Nurgozhay -368, Ribeiro +290

Odds to end ITD: -230

DraftKings Salaries: Nurgozhay 8.9k, Ribeiro 7.3k

Weight Class: 205

The UFC welcomes another newcomer and Contender Series contract winner in Diyar Nurgozhay this weekend, who will face Brendson Ribeiro in his debut.

Nurgozhay is 10-0 professionally at age 27, earning six wins by knockout and two by submission. He knocked out his opponent in the second round on DWCS to get his shot in the UFC.

Nurgozhay is from Kazakhstan and is primarily a boxer, but I consider him fairly well-rounded as well. He’s not the greatest athlete, but he carries power and physicality, and I think he’s a more skilled fighter than he appears at face value.

Many of his wins have come ultra-quickly, which includes seven first-round finishes, but he’s also shown impressive cardio as well in his two decision victories. Nurgozhay defeated Magomed Magomedov by three-round decision in EFC, and then went five rounds against Konstantin Andreitsev for the EFC title in 2022.

I think Nurgozhay is a bit slow, and he’s not the highest volume fighter, but I really do like his hands and he seems very effective with his boxing. He can come forward and be aggressive, but he often prefers to counter as well which we saw on DWCS.

There is some negative in that though. In the first round on DWCS, Nurgozhay only landed 15 significant strikes in the first round, while he absorbed 15 as well. It was a very competitive round and he could have lost it.

In the second round, he started to land more cleanly and then landed a sick head kick to end the fight, knocking his opponent to the canvas.

Again, I view Nurgozhay as pretty effective and he seems to carry power, and diversity. But he can be in competitive rounds given his lower volume style.

To his credit, he hasn’t seemed to face much adversity. I’ve never really seen him hurt. He’s beaten some OK competition including Emiliano Sordi, the former PFL champion, who he knocked out in round one in 2024. He seems tough and durable which gives me more confidence in his potential at the UFC level.

Additionally, Nurgozhay can wrestle. I don’t think he’s a great wrestler, but he’s capable, and he will occasionally mix in takedowns. His submission game doesn’t look too strong but his ground-and-pound is fine. He can damage opponents from top position and finish fights.

His defensive wrestling looks fine as well. I’ve seen him taken down a couple of times but he scrambled up, and I’ve seen him defend well in the clinch at times too. Perhaps very good wrestlers will beat him on the mat, but I think he can hold up to most average competition and he probably even has an edge over a lot of the division there.

So ultimately, Nurgozhay looks solid to me. Not the best athlete, not necessarily elite in any one area but a pretty solid boxer. He’s skillful, he can mix it up, and he’s tough and durable.

Nurgozhay will be taking on Brendson Ribeiro, who just won his first fight in three tries in the UFC, defeating Caio Machado by decision in November.

He was previously knocked out in his UFC debut by Zhang Mingyang, and he lost a close decision to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov as well.

I was not high on Riberio entering the UFC, though some were in his initial matchup against Mingyang. Ribeiro had landed some clean shots at distance in the first minute before Mingyang connected and knocked him out cold.

It wasn’t far off from what we’d seen on the regional scene, and I had categorized Ribeiro as a kill or be killed fighter.

He then went the distance against Gadzhiyasulov but the final two rounds were pretty concerning. Ribeiro got off to a decent start and landed three takedowns in round one, but he got tired, and was then taken down and held down for 8.5 of the final 10 minutes of the contest.

Ribeiro is now 16-7 professionally, and he’s earned nine wins by KO and six by submission. If you’re keeping track, that means he’s coming off his first career decision win which I suppose was impressive. 

However even against Machado, Ribeiro didn’t look great. He was outstruck 76 to 49 and distance but neither side was very impactful, and Ribeiro had a couple of moments that allowed him to swing two rounds.

Ribeiro is a fine thai striker, and capable of damaging his opponent, but it’s hard to trust in his volume or durability or cardio. Coming off back-to-back decisions where he landed 46 and 17 sig. strikes, I just don’t consider Ribeiro a great producer of offense.

Ribeiro can also wrestle, but many of his wins have come against a low level of competition. Given the right circumstance, Riberio can advance position and lock up a submission, and he has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu.

However, we’ve seen him taken down, both on the regional scene and in the UFC. I’ve seen him reversed. And he doesn’t look particularly good from his back. I’ve seen him give up position and give up his back to stand up.

He was also knocked unconscious from ground-and-pound in 2022, in a fight that he was winning prior. He’s been KOd three times in total and submitted twice.

Now I’m highly skeptical of his cardio against anyone who pushes him as well, which relates back to his lack of decision wins.

At this point, I really only have some faith in Ribeiro during the early minutes, where he’ll very likely need to find a finish. If he can’t secure it, I don’t trust in his offensive production, and I especially don’t trust in his durability.

I do think Ribeiro can have early success against Nurgozhay, but I still wouldn’t favor him. Ribeiro will be one inch taller with a huge seven-inch reach advantage, and that’s where I think he’ll need to have success to win this fight.

He’s going to be longer and he needs to pick Nurgozhay off at distance. He can kick a little bit, and kicks will be open as Nurgozhay fights Southpaw, so perhaps Ribeiro can land a damaging strike or just get ahead on the numbers early.

However, it’s very difficult to trust Ribeiro over the duration. Even with the length advantage, I think it’s pretty likely Nurgozhay can hurt him, get in close and counter with his boxing. I definitely favor the durability and cardio of Nurgozhay here.

I also think Nurgozhay is the better wrestler, but it may not be a huge edge. Ribeiro is probably the better submission grappler and could maybe land a takedown of his own. I don’t think he’d do much with it outside of an early submission or guillotine attempt.

He may be able to defend from his back but he’s shown a poor get-up game, and I think Nurgozhay can ride top position, or land damaging ground-and-pound. From boxing or ground-and-pound, I think it’s quite possible Nurgozhay can hurt Ribeiro badly enough to find the stoppage.

I am a bit hesitant to be overconfident in Nurgozhay because he’s making his debut and will be at some length disadvantages. He’s not the highest paced guy. I think he’s clearly the more well-rounded fighter here and the more dangerous guy in general. If he can survive a couple of early moments from Ribeiro, I expect him to eventually find boxing and/or wrestling success and do enough damage to win rounds or find the stoppage.

—

On DraftKings, Nurgozhay is priced up to 8.9k and I think he’s a viable target this week for finishing equity.

The risk is in his style. He won’t throw a ton of volume, and he may not wrestle. An extended fight could mean risk of underperforming.

Even in his second round KO on DWCS, Nurgozhay only landed 30 sig. strikes, which would have scored in the low 90s. That might not be optimal at 8.9k. A decision would probably mean he busts.

Nurgozhay is -125 to win ITD though, and Ribeiro has been finished in five losses, including in round one. Nurgozhay has many first round wins on his record, and he also has wrestling equity here.

I think this is partially boom or bust, but I do think Nurgozhay can win ITD and it could come early, so I don’t mind chasing the upside a bit. I don’t consider him a stand out but he’s cheaper than the strong 9k range, and makes for a decent target for the price.

There’s no reason to be overconfident here and I wouldn’t necessarily call him safe, but I like Nurgozhay as a tournament target and I’m hopeful he can find a finish and exceed value on DK.

Ribeiro at 7.3k is a pretty weak tournament target though he has some early upside on paper.

Most of his wins have come ITD, so based on that alone, he’ll carry finishing equity. I would much prefer to target him against someone who’s less durable though, or has crappy cardio. I don’t think Ribeiro can easily find a finish here and so I’m not inclined to target him much.

Ribeiro is only +350 to win ITD, which shows some equity but not a ton. At 7.3k, at a super low ownership with possible leverage, he’s OK in large fields.

But I don’t consider Ribeiro a great fighter, nor a great target in this matchup. He has shown minimal offensive production and is largely boom or bust, dependent on a random early finish. Play a bit of him if you like but I expect I will be pretty light on Ribeiro with a limited portfolio myself.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurgozhay by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Carlos Vera vs. Josias Musasa

Fight Odds: Musasa -725, Vera +500

Odds to end ITD: -220

DraftKings Salaries: Musasa 9.4k, Vera 6.8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am excited to see Josias Musasa make his UFC debut this weekend against Carlos Vera. I say that because I think Musasa is a decent looking prospect and I am interested to see how he develops.

Musasa is 8-0 professionally and fights out of the Congo. I believe this is only the second Congolese fighter in the history of the UFC with Cheick Kongo being the first. The Congo is one of the poorest countries in the world. It has been characterized by widespread poverty, political corruption, and civil war / conflict for decades. So this kid definitely overcame a lot of adversity just to make it here.

Musasa booked his ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series. He won a split decision against a solid undefeated Georgian opponent and Merab Dvalishvilli’s training partner Omari Tanzilovi. Tanzilovi was actually the favorite in that fight and definitely belongs in the UFC too. It was a back and forth striking affair and Musasa was actually outlanded in significant strikes 68-50. Musasa definitely landed the better shots though, especially in the second round. There were a few takedowns mixed in by both guys but neither guy could hold the other one down. It was a very close fight.

Before the Contender Series, Musasa knocked out all seven of his opponents, mostly in round one. The competition wasn’t great but Musasa still looked good in these matchups.

Musasa is a really good athlete. He reminds me a bit of an early career Manel Kape, not really in stance or fighting style but because of athleticism and how raw he is. He is truly a freak athlete but like Kape in his early career, he is obviously very raw. I think he is an interesting prospect because he is obviously very green and still has a lot of development to do, but he can already probably do well against many UFC fighters just because he is so fast and athletic.

Standing out of the southpaw stance, Musasa is a really fast striker and he generally likes to strike. Obviously he is raw, but he has a really fast left hand. He also has a good rear low kick which he will land on the inside leg of orthodox fighters. He has power too. 

I do think he has improvement to do though and he could pick up the volume at times.

Musasa also showed really good cardio in that Contender Series fight against Tanzilovi. Just because he is so fast and athletic and uses a lot of energy, it wouldn’t have been shocking to see him slow down. However, his cardio generally looked strong and I am confident he can fight for three rounds with no issue. 

I also thought Musasa showed really good TDD and get ups in that fight. Tanzilovi is a good grappler and didn’t have much success holding Musasa down. I am not sure how much Musasa will wrestle offensively in the UFC though and he hasn’t shown off that skillset much yet.

I think Musasa is ready for the UFC. He is a very athletic guy and can strike well with his speed. He will also be difficult to hold down too. He can probably knock people out at this level or just outstrike them by being faster than them. He is very green though which means he clearly is not a finished product. So I actually am interested to see how he develops because he definitely has some talent and athletic attributes.

Musasa will be taking on Carlos Vera. Vera is an Ecuadorian fighter who is 11-4 professionally and 37 years old. So I doubt he is going to be making improvements.

Vera is actually a student of Ryan Hall and like Hall he has a bit of an unorthodox BJJ game, but he is not nearly as good as Hall as a submission grappler.

On the feet, Vera is very limited and basically can just land leg kicks. He isn’t much of a striking threat. The other issue is that even though Vera is a BJJ fighter and needs the fight on the ground, he doesn’t have the best offensive wrestling. Sometimes he doesn’t even look to shoot takedowns either. His defensive wrestling is not there but he doesn’t care as he just wants the fight on the mat anyway.

The limited game of Vera has been an issue in his UFC affiliated career thus far. He fought Brad Katona on TUF and was basically neutralized. He lost the striking exchanges and was kind of controlled on the mat and against the cage. He then fought Nakamura in his UFC debut and basically got neutralized on the mat and was controlled and unable to get the submission.

Both Katona and Nakamura are extremely positionally sound grapplers though, so those were tough matchups for Vera. I do think Vera is a decent submission grappler and he does have some tricky BJJ and dangerous submissions. He can use sweeps to reverse position too.

The issue is the type of game that Vera has is limited. Many positionally sound fighters can just control him on the mat and cruise to an easy decision. Good defensive grapplers can just keep the fight standing and outstrike Vera to a decision or knock him out. He has never been knocked out in 15 pro fights though.

As far as this matchup goes, I basically think Vera is submission or bust. On the feet, Vera will probably try to use his kicks to evade and try to stay safe, and limit engagements. However, Vera just probably can’t land anything meaningful and I do think Musasa can use his speed and athleticism to explode in and land his strikes.

I also don’t think Vera has the traditional wrestling to get Musasa down so there is just a good chance Musasa sprawls and brawls Vera to a finish or a comfortable decision. I don’t know if Vera will get finished right away as Vera has never been knocked out and likes to limit engagements, and Musasa may be hesitant early with the submission threat. I could also see Vera going to his back and bleeding some clock.

I still do think Vera has some tricky BJJ. He is the more skilled BJJ player and it wouldn’t completely shock me if he got ahold of Musasa and submitted him. Musasa could easily get top position here too as Vera has no defensive wrestling. Musasa may entangle too much and Vera could sweep him and get a position. I do think Musasa is green enough to get caught or do something stupid.

However, that is Vera’s only chance really and I do think Musasa looks very tough to get and hold down, and he is a freak athlete. So I think more than likely, Musasa can just explode out of any shaky situations. So I will pick Musasa to sprawl and brawl to a win. I still think Musasa is probably too big of a favorite here though as he is so green and Vera is a bit tricky on the mat.

—

On DraftKings, I think Musasa is a fine target for his knockout upside though I’m not particularly stoked to play him.

Clearly, he’s extremely boom or bust and very dependent on an early KO. He won’t land tons of volume and I would guess any real wrestling will be mitigated by Vera. He simply needs a knockout, and he needs that knockout against an opponent who has never been knocked out.

I personally think Musasa looks super green and I’m more hesitant than Tim to trust him. Musasa is fine at his base but he’s not super technically sound, and he’s defensively open. I’ve seen him rocked before too, and he’ll probably get knocked out at this level, though he absolutely has finishing power himself.

If Vera just can’t find takedowns, Musasa probably tees off on him. I could definitely see Vera falling to his back and trying to extend the fight but I highly doubt he can compete with Musasa standing. So an early KO is quite likely.

Musasa is -160 to win ITD but the fight is actually -160 Over 1.5 rounds. So it feels a bit odd.

At 9.4k, Musasa will rate out well and I’d guess he’ll be the most popular fighter in this range, alongside Vallejos. I really have no problems with targeting him, and he probably scores 100+ with a finish.

However, the higher owned Musasa is, the less of a fan I am. You is a very strong option, and Judice and Blackshear have intrigue too. Musasa is super boom or bust and with the fight projected to go past 1.5 rounds, that would make me super nervous. Plus, Vera might just fall to his back and limit engagements.

Ultimately Musasa is a green but interesting prospect who’s being set up with a decent matchup here. Good chance he gets it done. I still don’t think he’s a DraftKings lock even with a finish and I probably would aim to be near the field, or a bit under if he’s projecting as ultra chalk.

Vera at 6.8k is fine as a sprinkle.

I personally think it seems pretty obvious Musasa will be exposed by a wrestler, but his defense has looked OK thus far. He can give up initial takedowns and I am highly skeptical of his submission grappling.

There’s a good chance that Vera is levels ahead of Musasa on the mat, so if he happens to land one takedown or jump on the back in a scramble, he could find a sub. I’m not really willing to bet on it though as his wrestling looks poor and he just likes to play guard.

But at 6.8k at a super low ownership and leverage against the field, it’s not the worst large-field target. He’s +550 to win ITD with mild finishing equity. Not a great play, but there’s a lack of data here and DWCS newcomers tend to be overvalued. A dart throw, but one with at least a path to victory.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Musasa by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Daniel Barez vs. Andre Lima

Fight Odds: Lima -383, Barez +300

Odds to end ITD: +140

DraftKings Salaries: Lima 9k, Barez 7.2k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Andre Lima’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who picked up a win in his debut in pretty unconventional fashion, as he was bitten by his opponent (literally). But he rounded out last year strong and now brings his UFC record to 3-0. He remains undefeated as a pro at 10-0. Daniel Barez is a fellow Contender Series alum but was unsuccessful in his opportunity, dropping a somewhat controversial decision back in 2021. But he got the call-up as a short notice fill in 2023 to where he’s since gone 1-1 in the promotion – he’s 17-6 as a pro.

The striking component:

Lima comes from a kickboxing background where he was a champion in his native Brazil.   

Our tape on him isn’t vast but in what we have, he works in a more traditional marauding, striking style where he likes to control the center and dictate exchanges. He hasn’t been an output machine necessarily, but his shots take an impact as he’ll dig the legs and body with kicks in addition to some stronger blitzing straights. As a result, five of his 10 pro wins have come via KO although not all at distance.   

Defensively, I think he’s decent when he’s the guy going forward in being able to keep a higher shelling guard, but he did struggle a bit more when put on the back foot in his UFC debut by Severino – the distance strikes were close at 31-29 in favor of Severino, but I’d also say that Lima was landing more impactful shots.  He ate some good shots as well, so he does appear to be a pretty durable fighter but once again, we’re dealing in a smaller sample size.   

He followed that up with a more traditional, surgical performance where he just picked apart Raposo over the course of 15 minutes. Once again, the fight was fought at a slower pace where the distance strikes were 49-32 in favor of Lima, but he was evidently winning the exchanges, and he did specifically well in targeting the legs of Raposo.

More recently, he was outlanded 33-14 at distance by Dos Santos in the limited striking time we saw, and Dos Santos landed a spinning elbow at the end of round one. It was a competitive round but 2/3 judges gave Dos Santos that round.  

Overall, Lima appears to be a quality striker and has power for 125 lbs which is a good attribute, but I’d still like to see him in more distance exchanges when he’s pressured effectively – his head strike defense is pretty solid though.

Barez’s stand up has been a bit all over the board in the sense that sometimes he’s played a more passive mid-range game but in others (more recently), he’s looked to pressure from the jump.   

He’s got chopping low kicks but his bread and butter is with his boxing as his combos are tight, crisp and fast.   

He specifically excels with his hooks that then set up his body shots which have hurt multiple opponents now, with seven of his 17 pro wins coming via strikes. He’s also hurt both his UFC opponents despite not finding the finish, including Altamirano which is more impressive considering how durable he’s been over the years.   

Defensively, he’s better at range but can leave his head on the center line when he’s entering or firing off his combos. We did see Hernandez stun him at one point on the Contender Series, but Barez hurt him as well.   

He ultimately got outstruck at distance 63-45 numerically but the exchanges were competitive – it was really a later flurry from Hernandez that probably won him that fight.   

Barez did slow down a bit as well which I think was more of a product of Hernandez’ body work than Barez having bad cardio – his cardio has looked fine historically but he did slow a bit last time out against Altamirano as well so there may be something there.   

Overall, I like the boxing of Barez and he brings raw power to the weight class but may struggle with more rangy opponents that he can’t consistently get inside on.

How it plays out: The striking should be fun here as both guys are front foot oriented fighters and bring some real heat at flyweight – in addition to being sound leg kickers and possessing good hand speed. What I feel favors Lima is that he controls exchanges a bit better than Barez and I’d give him a durability edge as well. But Barez’s pressure, volume and potential ability to turn this into a dog fight could really benefit him. Additionally, Barez will be the most potent striker Lima’s fought in terms of damaging different levels which makes an interesting dynamic when referencing Lima’s historic durability.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Despite the kickboxing base of Lima, he’s a recently crowned BJJ black belt. We’ve seen the floor come into play pro and con in four of his five most recent fights.   

He’s not a guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes but he has mixed it in and has mainly excelled from the body lock to hit trips, throws or foot sweeps. He’s also shown the ability to pass and take the back although he still reps no pro wins via submission.   

Lima has jumped a few guillotines as well which I’m not the biggest fan of. His control has generally been decent, but he has lost position in attacking things before.   

Defensively, it’s a little shaky for him as I’ve seen him show some good down blocking/sprawls at times, but he also gave up five TDs in his debut to Severino. He only conceded three minutes of control though, so he was able to work up on stuff but arguably lost the 1st and appeared to be on his way to losing the 2nd. He spent some time on bottom in another regional fight as well but was able to work back up.   

Raposa went 1/2 on TDs but Lima used an effective overhook to work up quickly on the lone TD Raposo landed. It was honestly an odd game plan from Raposo to only shoot two TDs given his base and that his primary path against Lima was on the floor.

He’s coming off dominating Dos Santos on the floor though, going 2/2 on TDs racking up nine minutes of control – he also came really close to finishing an RNC in round three. 

Overall, Lima’s a guy that will probably realize more floor success against less competent opponents, but I think he may struggle here against more capable wrestlers of a UFC level – time will tell.   

Barez comes from an extensive grappling background as he’s won European no-gi and sambo championships. He’s a brown belt in BJJ to boot with six pro wins coming via submission.   

He went 5/16 on TDs against Hernandez but did struggle to control him – granted Hernandez has been a difficult guy to control in the past with a sound get up game. Traditionally, he’s not a guy that’s shooting a high volume of TDs, but he is a capable wrestler with good top side chokes.    

Defensively, he has respectable TDD and stuffed all eight shots from Hernandez, but he did slip off a knee in the 2nd and got controlled for the bulk of that round – he also gave his back up pretty early in the sequence. We also saw him lose the 1st round via wrestling to Camilo but he did threaten a somewhat tight guillotine.   

So, he’ll throw stuff up, but those two individual rounds are somewhat concerning for me in Barez’s ability to be controlled. In addition, we saw his outing against Filho where he got his guard passed quickly off one of the TDs to where he got arm triangled – Filho is a high level black belt in fairness.

Overall, he appears to be one of those “driver’s seat” types of grapplers.  

How it plays out: Both guys can be taken down but I’d give more upside to Lima in the sense that we’ve seen him controlled less and I also think he’ll serve as the physically stronger guy in the tie ups. How much he’s actually going to push TDs is questionable but I thought he showed good fight IQ last time out against Dos Santos who’s served as a pressure fighter and he broke that up with TDs in the 2nd and 3rd.

Solid fight between two guys I personally like as fighters and what they bring to the table. I side more with Lima for having higher grappling upside but I also think Barez is a stern test for him on the feet. If the fight goes 15 minutes, I’d anticipate a 29-28 type of fight.

—

On DraftKings, Lima looks pretty close to an outright fade for me at 9k.

That’s not to say he won’t win or can’t win by KO or SUB but I can’t see any real merit to prioritizing him over any option priced above him, and it’s honestly not remotely close. There are also several fighters priced below him who I would prefer.

Lima is simply too slow paced for this kind of price tag. In his three wins, he’s scored 68, 51 and 89, and the 89 point win came because he got bit and won by DQ. It absolutely feels like he needs an early finish, and he’s only +195 ITD in a fight lined -170 to go the distance.

He will be contrarian though, and probably extremely contrarian. I would assume he ends up sub 15 percent owned on this slate. So if you want a place to be unique, this is one spot. Barez has been finished before.

I just hate the pacing here, and I’m not particularly in love with Lima as a prospect. Perhaps fitting him into a small percentage of lineups makes sense if you are max entering but with a limited portfolio, he’s a pretty easy X for me and I’m just going to spread my exposure out elsewhere.

Barez is the preferred target by default at 7.2k, but I don’t love him.

I’m primarily worried about the pacing of this fight and Lima isn’t a guy who absorbs a lot of offense. Barez will likely project to land 50-60 strikes over three rounds and his wrestling has been extremely inconsistent.

He has some pop though, and he can wrestle. I think he could win a couple of close rounds here. He has more win equity than finishing equity at +550 ITD.

Maybe Barez can land 3-4 takedowns, and score close to 70 in a decision? That’s the kind of ceiling I see for him unless he randomly gets a finish, but I can’t count on that. And I just don’t love the floor here given the pacing and style of Lima.

I don’t hate Barez as a low-end target due to win equity but I also can’t call him a priority in any sense due to the fight dynamic. I’ll probably have a couple of shares of him given the price tag, to help save salary, but I wouldn’t expect to end up tangibly overweight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lima by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Fight Odds: Nunes -180, Cachoeira +154

Odds to end ITD: +150

DraftKings Salaries: Nunes 8.5k, Cachoeira 7.7k

Weight Class: 135

Throw technique out the window here. We should have a hilarious brawl between Josiane Nunes and Priscila Cachoeira on Saturday.

Both Nunes and Cachoeira are come-forward, heavy-handed brawlers with not much regard for technique or defense, but I am expecting it to be fun while it lasts.

Cachoeira has always been somewhat of a meme. She marches forward with her head in the air, setting up a perfect target to get pelted by her opponents. Most often, opponents can land cleanly but Cachoeira is quite tough and so if she survives, she has potential to break opponents in return.

She is only 4-6 in the UFC but of those four wins, Cachoeira has won three by knockout, including most recently against Ariane da Silva in 2022. That fight only lasted a minute and five seconds which is still longer than her KO victory over Shana Dobson, which only lasted a whopping 40 seconds.

Cachoeira has awful metrics as you’d expect. She lands 3.76 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 7.03 per minute with a 43 percent defensive rate. She cannot grapple either, and is a liability on the mat, defending takedowns at only 65 percent.

I don’t think grappling will come into play here against Josiane Nunes who also cannot grapple.

Nunes is a pitbull both in size and nature, standing only 5’2” which is super short for the women’s bantamweight division. She literally has no choice but to march forward and wing bombs, as her opponents will all be much taller than her. Cachoeira holds a five-inch height advantage but apparently Nunes has a two-inch reach advantage, for what it’s worth.

In that style, Nunes can have success. Again, opponents with more technique can keep her away from them and outpoint her, but as Nunes pressures, she can break opponents and land occasional big shots.

Nunes has a 3-2 record in the UFC, largely beating scrubs, but she has one KO win and she also landed two knockdowns in a win by decision over Pascual.

More recently, she was outstruck by Cavalcanti 91-52 but still pulled off a split (loss) due to landing the occasional big shot.

In total, Nunes lands 5.41 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.44 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. She lands 0 takedowns and defends at 58 percent.

I don’t see many outcomes for this matchup other than these two trading like crazy people. Nunes probably will actually be the superior technical fighter in this matchup and I favor her slightly as she probably has better defense as well.

Still, Cachoeira will march forward, and she’s bigger than Nunes. I don’t think Nunes can easily put Cachoeira away, so it’s quite possible these two just brawl. It’s difficult to analyze the fight much deeper than that.

Cachoeira has been knocked down a couple of times, including in her last loss against Jasudavicius, while Nunes has yet to be knocked down. But Cachoeira has fought better competition largely.

It’s a battle of two fighters who typically get hit a lot more than they hit their opponents, but Cachoeira has far worse metrics historically and I think her defense is just so non-existent that I’d lean toward Nunes to land more consistently and perhaps have a better shot at a knockout.

I wouldn’t feel comfortable favoring Nunes moderately though as a smaller fighter who gets hit a lot herself. Just seems like variance city here with not much process on either side. I’ll take Nunes to win a couple of rounds.

—

On DraftKings, Nunes is priced at 8.5k and has some viability given the stupidity of the matchup.

She’s not a great fantasy scorer and that will always be a concern. She’s not going to wrestle and I hate relying on knockouts in this division. Striking volume should be good but it won’t really matter as volume doesn’t score well on DK.

If we’re playing Nunes, we definitely want a knockout, or at least a knockdown. I definitely think that’s possible. Nunes is only +315 to win ITD though but with the strong volume that should come in this matchup, if she can secure a knockout, she has a legit ceiling. However, I don’t see any reason to rely on the finish.

So we’re looking at something like 75 points in a high-paced war that has no knockdowns, or potentially 100+ if she can find the KO. One will bust at 8.5k and the other will be optimal.

I don’t expect Nunes to be super popular and I understand not wanting much action here. The fight interestingly has been bet up from -130 GTD to -180 which is also a concern. I still think Nunes is an intriguing secondary play for finishing equity, but obviously it makes sense to cap your exposure pretty firmly.

Cachoeira at 7.7k has upside in a win and she’s been even more reliant on knockouts.

She’s scored 100+ a couple of times but also 77 in her last decision, so it’s the same issue. If she wins a competitive war with no knockdowns, she won’t be optimal at her price.

However, she’s big, comes forward, and swings pretty hard so she does have KO equity. She is +315 to win ITD and has been popular at times for her style. I don’t mind using her as a secondary target even though I’m a bit less trusting she can find the finish.

I’m not dying to play a lot of these underdogs though and Cachoeira has more ITD equity than many others priced below her. She’s a reasonable upside target for her price just based on pacing and fighting dynamics. I’ll likely fall in near the field myself as it’s hard to take a real stand in either direction.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nunes by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Yuneisy Duben vs. Carli Judice

Fight Odds: Judice -383, Duben +300

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Judice 9.3k, Duben 6.9k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a mess of a fight here between UFC debutant Yuneisy Duben and Carli Judice.

Duben made history on the Contender Series a few months back. She was a +1000 underdog and knocked her opponent dead in the first round. It was a sloppy fight and both fighters just swung recklessly. However, Duben did stay tough and eventually landed her big shot. It was pretty funny. It was also a brutal knockout.

Duben is 6-0 professionally and she fights out of Venezuela. She is 28 years old and apparently comes from a Taekwondo background, where she is a black belt.

Duben doesn’t have much tape available in general. Her Contender Series fight ended early and she only has a couple of regional fights available online. Her regional competition is some of the worst competition I have ever seen for a debuting fighter. Every single fighter Duben fought on the regionals had a 0-0 record at the time she fought them. Since Duben has beaten them, those opponents have almost all lost every fight since. So Duben basically has beaten a bunch of bums and you can’t take much from those fights.

I do think I have a decent idea of how Duben will fight in the UFC though. She likes to strike and she is pretty aggressive. She comes out hard and she does swing hard hooks. I actually do think she has a little bit of power. She seems fairly tough too.

However, Duben just looks like a mess and has no technique, and her opponents have been next level bad. She looks sloppy and unskilled and I don’t trust her striking defense whatsoever. My guess is she will look pretty bad against any skilled opponents who can actually land strikes back on her. That is speculation though maybe she comes improved with tighter technique.

In the one fight of Duben’s that I saw go past round one, Duben’s aggressiveness did decrease as the fight went on, and she actually looked to counter more. I am not sure she is a cardio liability or not but at least she recognized she had to pace herself a bit after she didn’t win by round one finish. I honestly don’t know what to expect of her in a high paced fight for 15 minutes.

Duben’s grappling also looks suspect. She hasn’t been tested, but I have seen her taken down here and there. She worked up but her opponents were so bad and she used no technique to return to her feet. I am pretty confident she is a liability on the mat and will get exposed there at some point. I doubt she can outgrapple opponents at this level. This is also speculation though.

Overall, Duben just looks like a pretty low-level fighter who doesn’t have much experience. I do think she will come out and swing hard and aggressively though. I actually don’t think her hurting opponents would be that fluky. I do think she hits somewhat hard. 

However, I just can’t have much faith in her until I see her prove herself at this level. Her grappling may be a huge liability. Her striking defense may be a huge liability. She may have cardio issues. She just has too many potential holes. So I have to be skeptical.

Duben will be taking Carli Judice. A Louisiana native, Judice is 3-2 professionally and is 26 years old. 

Judice fought on the Contender Series against Ernesta Kareckaite and was actually awarded a contract in a loss. She lost a back and forth split decision in a fight that generally played out on the feet. Judice actually landed a whopping 168 significant strikes in that fight but she absorbed 184 in return which isn’t great. Kareckaite is a decent fighter though so that performance can be viewed as positive.

Judice then took on Gabriella Fernandes in a fight that also took place on the feet. Judice again showed that grit and volume that she showed on the Contender Series. She actually outlanded Fernandes 169-119 in significant strikes but lost a split decision and Fernandes landed some decent power shots. Fernandes is a decent striker and did just club and sub Wang Cong, so again that close loss could also be viewed as a positive performance by Judice.

The rest of Judice’s career has taken place on the regional scene against poor competition. I haven’t really seen a ton of her ground game defensively or offensively so we are a bit blind in that regard. However, I don’t have a ton of faith in her offensive grappling in general.

Judice generally just looks to strike and I do like her aggressiveness and tenacity from an offensive striking perspective. She has some okay straight punches and seems tough with good cardio.

I still don’t actually think Judice is that skilled though and she is poor defensively. Judice is also just young and green and I want to see more of her and how she develops and progresses.

I still think Judice is way more proven than Duben though. Fernandes and Kareckaite are both UFC level fighters and Judice very well could have been given the decision in either of those matchups. We also know Judice can fight at an extremely high pace for 15 minutes. We don’t know if Duben can.

My guess is Judice is probably a bit more experienced at this point and will just consistently land on Duben, and it will probably lead to a win for her. Duben just looks so raw and inexperienced. 

Duben may also just have a random hole like getting taken down and beat up, etc. Judice doesn’t look like a strong offensive wrestler to take advantage of it easily but it is at least possible.

I still do think Duben could have some success though. Judice is very hittable and I actually do think Duben has some decent power and aggression. She can time some shots too. If Duben just shows up with cardio, this could just be a back and forth mess. So I don’t actually compete Duben out.

Still though, we truly do not know if Duben is UFC level and we do know Judice is so I will go with the more proven commodity in Judice here to get the better of the exchanges here and potentially expose some holes of Duben.

—

On DraftKings, ughh, part of me wants to take shots on Judice but at 9.3k, it’s going to be difficult.

Duben could very well be a joke of a fighter and she profiles absolutely terribly from a long term perspective. Tim mentioned most of the reasons to be cautious but like I’m watching some of her tape from 2019, and it’s basically as if they just dragged two soccer moms from a local practice and forced them to fight. 

Also, it’s worth noting again that Duben has faced essentially no resistance. No decisions. She’s just throwing some occasional flurries and that’s about it. She’s small but hits hard.

At the same time, Judice is not good and she’s absorbing a massive 10.10 sig. strikes per minute. This could just be a low-level WMMA fight where both girls land but Duben hits a little harder.

I’m still definitely picking Judice. She is a few inches taller and longer, and she’s proven she can land strikes at a very high rate. It’s fair to favor her volume and experience over three rounds and she might be able to stop Duben along the way.

From a fantasy standpoint, Judice just scored 83 in a loss based on her volume, which would have been 113 in a win. I think her volume is real, but probably not to the level we’ve seen, which is a problem because we need massive volume numbers for it to matter. 

However, this matchup projects to be high paced and I feel like Judice can land a lot. I’m not sure about 165+ sig. strikes but 120+ sig. strikes seems possible. Judice is also +180 to win ITD. It’s not great but it shows some equity.

I don’t really think it’s possible to prioritize Judice at this price tag, given that You, Musasa, Vallejos and Blackshear are sitting right nearby. But Judice has shown insane volume upside in the past and if she can couple it with a finish, she could put up a smash score.

The lower owned she projects to be, the more willing I’d be to take chances on her. I expect her to be contrarian just given the nature of the other options in this range. 

I can’t really recommend that you target Judice at a high rate, and I will be prioritizing other options myself. But I am intrigued by the possibility of a high-paced war where Judice lands a ton of strikes and stops Duben by accumulation in the middle rounds. At low ownership, it’s at least one route to consider if you’re aiming to be unique in this top range.

Duben at 6.9k is unfortunately in play as well.

I really don’t want to invest a single cent in her, but the pure fact that Judice is absorbing such massive striking numbers absolutely gives Duben a shot. In a win, she’ll need to produce a lot of volume, and probably hurt Judice along the way.

This won’t be a priority target of mine by any stretch, but I’ve learned over the years that targeting these deep WMMA dogs in debut fights is worth a look. Duben is +500 to win ITD but a KD is viable.

More importantly, Duben is 7k and will rate out well from a floor standpoint. The fight is still -150 to go the distance and even in a loss, Duben may land 100+ significant strikes and put up a reasonable result.

I won’t have a lot of exposure to her but when I need to punt, I think Duben is OK and she has low-end secondary viability based on pacing of the fight, and lack of talent on either side.

Brett’s Fight PredictioNote: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

Fight Odds: Vettori -155, Dolidze +134

Odds to end ITD: +155

DraftKings Salaries: Vettori 8.2k, Dolidze 8k

Weight Class: 205

A rematch from 2023 that nobody asked for, Marvin Vettori will return to the cage after a two-year layoff to face Roman Dolidze in this weekend’s main event.

Vettori hasn’t fought since June of 2023 where he lost to Jared Cannonier by decision, and largely took a beating after having some early success. I still thought he performed well in totality but it was an excellent performance by Cannonier as well, who we know is one of the tougher outs in this division.

Prior to that, Vettori squeezed out a decision over Dolidze in March that had many crying robbery, but again, I thought Vettori performed well and probably deserved the nod.

At the same, I feel comfortable in who Vettori is at this stage of his career, and he’s no longer a fighter I am very high on. I once thought he had title aspirations but he’s just not dangerous enough, and his Fight IQ is questionable, among other things. He’s still a decent fighter and probably the deserving favorite in this rematch.

When the two last squared off, the dynamic was clear and I believe it will be clear again. Vettori is the more consistent and higher paced kickboxer, and he should be able to land move volume over the course of five rounds.

Dolidze is the bigger power threat, and had the tendency to come forward which provided better optics. However, he cannot keep up the same pace as Vettori which was a real problem.

Additionally, both sides are competent grapplers but I’d argue that Dolidze has the higher upside at this stage of his career, while Vettori is more likely to use his grappling defensively.

Dolidze actually only attempted one takedown in that last fight against Vettori, and failed to secure it. He was outstruck 106-71 in total, and lost each round on the numbers, 38-29, 28-16 and 40-26.

Dolidze did throw some big shots early that had Vettori stumbling around, but he survived. Vettori wasn’t really able to hurt Dolidze but he did land 38 leg strikes over 15 minutes while Dolidze landed strikes primarily to the head.

Vettori is just a bit more diverse. He can kick as well as punch, and he has more experience in five-round fights.

Even in that loss to Cannonier, Vettori actually landed 153 sig. strikes. He absorbed a whopping 241 but again, Dolidze cannot keep up that kind of pace.

The last time we saw Dolidze fight in a five rounder, he had really nothing for Imavov despite only losing by majority decision. Dolidze was outlanded 112 to 34 in that fight, and only landed 8, 5, 8, 6 and 7 sig. strikes per round. Honestly pathetic.

Historically, Dolidze lands 3.16 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.38 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. Vettori lands 4.56 per minute while absorbing 4.24 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.

Vettori is clearly more capable on the volume side and has reached totals of 190, 164 and 153 in five-round fights. He also lands 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes though he’s largely abandoned his wrestling in recent years.

I do think Dolidze has more power, but Vettori is hard to get out of there. Vettori has never been knocked out, or even knocked down in the UFC in 15 fights while competing against the likes of Cannonier, Adesanya, Whittaker and Costa. So it makes the pure power dynamic difficult for Dolidze when his actual chances of putting Vettori out cold feel minimal.

We’ve seen both sides slow down at times but Vettori simply keeps up the higher pace and I have to favor him over the course of five rounds to land more volume.

The wrestling is one interesting angle though, as Vettori has looked worse and worse on the mat in recent years. He gave up four takedowns to Cannoneir which is pretty concerning, and that’s where Dolidze thrives.

Dolidze just can’t produce much offense and only lands 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes himself. When on top, he is a dangerous submission grappler though and has fight-ending ability. I’m just not sure he can attempt many takedowns and land them against Vettori, who is still competent and defends at 69 percent in total.

To sum it up, I have to favor Vettori here based on historics. He’s a higher volume striker, with more five-round experience, and he’s super tough to finish. Dolidze has enough power to win some moments though, and perhaps has more grappling equity in this matchup than in his past one.

I do not particularly trust Vettori in general, nor do I trust him coming off a two-year layoff. He might not look great and could get tired late. But Dolidze lands so little volume that Vettori should still be able to keep up with him and surpass him in theory. If Dolidze can swing a few rounds with moments or top time though, I wouldn’t be shocked. It’s just tough to project with any confidence.

—

On DraftKings, this is the third week in a row where I have some real concerns for the main event from a fantasy perspective, but I expect I will be forced into targeting it due to the dynamic of the slate.

Vettori is priced at 8.2k and he’s a pretty safe option, but I don’t think he has incredible upside. Largely, I’m worried that he won’t attempt takedowns which will severely cut his floor/ceiling combination in a win.

He can still rack up volume, but Dolidze doesn’t absorb strikes at a super high pace, so something like 130-140 sig. strikes over five rounds is in play. That would still put Vettori near the 90 point mark, but if he scores 88 in a decision and misses the optimal lineup, I would not be shocked.

Vettori is only +525 to win ITD as well in a matchup that’s -190 to go the full five-round distance, which is awful.

At 8.2k, it’s still not a massive risk, and I definitely think Vettori can exceed value in a victory. For that reason alone he’s a pretty solid option and a strong secondary target. You can argue he’s not a primary target though as 1-2 takedowns from Dolidze could minimize his striking volume and he simply doesn’t have many other paths to scoring.

On the other side, Dolidze is more moment dependent which is tricky. He only landed 71 sig. strikes in the last fight and would have scored a pathetic 59 points in a win. Over five rounds, 120 sig. strikes is possible though it would be a career high, and that would still only equate to 70 DK points.

I think for Dolidze to really reach a ceiling, he needs a knockdown, or grappling success. I wouldn’t be shocked by either, but again Vettori has never been knocked down. Takedowns might come easier but Dolidze doesn’t even average 1.5 per 15 minutes so it’s hard to project.

I still think the higher upside fighter is Dolidze though. If he can wrestle a bit, suddenly 1-2 takedowns is an additional 10 points + top control time + ground strikes + a potential finishing threat. He’s only +225 to win ITD which is far better than Vettori’s but still not elite.

I don’t mind using Dolidze as a secondary target as well, and you could prioritize him outright, simply hoping he reaches a ceiling. He’s the more fan friendly fighter and coming off a 115 point win, there’s a decent chance Dolidze is the higher owned fighter of the two. He certainly may be given the ITD discrepancy alone.

It’s just worth mentioning again that Dolidze isn’t processed, and cannot produce much offense. So he’s not a safe pick to win at all, nor to reach a ceiling unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat (possible).

I don’t have a strong take here. I’ll have exposure to both sides, but I don’t think I will lean dramatically toward one side or the other. Dolidze is certainly higher upside on paper but Vettori is the easy pick to win based on data. There’s also a decent chance that if we don’t see wrestling, neither fighter may reach 90 points and it’s therefore worth building in a fade of the main event as part of your portfolio as well.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vettori by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Fight Odds: Zaleski -200, Njokuani +170

Odds to end ITD: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Zaleski 8.4k, Njokuani 7.8k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is entering his 11th year on the roster at the not so ripe age of 38 years old, but he’s shown he can still go – he’s 11-4-1 in the UFC and 25-8-1 as a pro. Chidi Njokuani was a long time Bellator staple who came over to the UFC via Contender Series back in 2021. He went 2-3 at 185 lbs. but moved down to 170 last year where he’s since gone 2-0 in his new weight class – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 24-10 as a pro.

The striking component:

Zaleski comes from a capoeira background and has shown a diverse striking arsenal throughout his run.   

He lands 4.3 SLpM at 42% but is right around the divisional average at distance, so he traditionally isn’t a high volume guy but he’s shown he can land more significant strikes in certain matchups that are more suitable for volume.   

He has been in some closer striking affairs, but it does need to be noted that he’s been fighting almost exclusively top 25 guys since entering the UFC back in 2016.      

Zaleski doesn’t throw a ton of straight punches but has good hooks, nasty kicks and a good clinch game to boot.      

Also, pretty impressive in that he’s out struck some pretty solid UFC strikers in Good, Griffin, Kunchenko, and he finished Strickland and Akhmedov. He was competitive in his losses to both Li and Salikhov as well – many thought he won the Salikhov fight and that’s not an easy guy to look good against.      

His defensive metrics are respectable, eating 3.4 SApM but at 57% but we’ve seen him hurt in numerous fights throughout his career and specifically early in his outings against Nurmagomedov and Fakhretdinov. Getting hurt by Nurmagomedov isn’t the best of looks which does indicate some signs of regression with him now at 37 years old.   

In his defense, he hung tough in both outings, going on to edge out the Nurmagomedov fight and score a 10-8 in the 3rd against Fakhretdinov, so he doesn’t have quit in him.   

It’s been the guys who have been able to play effective games from the outside that have beaten him or tightened margins – we saw that in his last fight against Brown.      

Overall, Zaleski has proven his worth as a striker in this division and isn’t going to be an easy out on the feet, but his style can lead him to fighting in the margins.

Njokuani comes from a kickboxing background which is on display in his fights.      

He’s a very long guy who likes to fight at range and prefers to kick more than punch.      

He’s pretty technical and accurate but his volume tends to be on the lower end so he’s traditionally not going out there and “pacing” guys standing per say. He does have a solid clinch game though with sound elbows and good knees in which he’s been able to hurt the bulk of his most recent opponents.   

I still don’t think he’s a gigantic hitter in terms of his punching but it’s more so his timing that has given him some credence to finishes or hurting opponents.      

He was able to hand Barriault his first KO loss with a well-placed shot behind the ear which adds to that sniper merit – although I do think it was somewhat of a memey outcome.      

Defensively, he’s largely sound in the scenarios at range where he can utilize his length as he’s pretty cognoscente of using head movement and footwork.      

However, it’s been when guys have been able to get inside on him with effective pressure to where he struggles. More specifically recently in his fights with Rodrigues and Oleksiejczuk.  

His durability is of concern at this point as he’s been KO’d in two of his last three losses.   

Overall, he’s a good striker but does work in a style that can lead to tighter margins if he can’t secure finishes – this is what cost him against Duraev – controversial or not.

How it plays out: Off the top, Njokuani will realize a decided size advantage of 4” in height and 7” in reach. Both guys match up pretty well on the feet as the range exchanges are likely competitive but I’d favor Zaleski in his blitzing attacks, and I’d favor Njokuani in clinching scenarios. Both guys’ durability is a tad concerning at this point and both can be dangerous so it adds another layer of variance.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Outside of his capoeira background, Zaleski is a BJJ black belt under Christiano Marcello.   

However, he hasn’t been much of a wrestling threat in the aggregate as he primarily likes to stand and strike. As a result, he only lands 0.7 TDs per 15 minutes at just 21% — in his defense, he’s fought a lot of sound TD defenders in his run. 

But he landed four TDs in his last outing against Brown which aided in him winning the 2nd round and tightening the margins in that fight. He also got on top of Fakhretdinov late in their fight and nearly finished.       

He has struggled with TDD at times in the earlier part of his UFC career but has since been solid, despite his TDD number sitting at 68%.      

Prior to his last couple of bouts, Akhmedov was the best wrestler that he’s fought in the UFC – Akhmedov went 3/7 on TDs and only got one minute of control – Zaleski was able to threaten, sweep and reverse positions on all occasions.      

He did have some struggles with Nakamura and Dalby as well but won the Nakamura fight and the Dalby fight was a split.      

The control time Nakamura was primarily able to accrue was earlier on in the fight and from back positions.     

It’s important to note that those fights are from over eight years ago – nobody’s had extended wrestling success on Dos Santos since.      

Even more recently, Nurmagomedov only went 1/8 – he was able to get Zaleski down at the end of the 2nd round but nearly all Nurmagomedov’s six minutes of control came against the fence – I think that’s a testament to Zaleski’s improved TDD over the years.   

Fakhretdinov only went 1/9, getting a little over four minutes of control with chunks of that coming against the fence.    

Zaleski hasn’t been an overt submission threat, but he uses his BJJ very well defensively and can threaten front chokes on entry. You have to go back all the way to 2013 for the last time he was submitted.      

Overall, as noted, guys have had some success on him in this realm but he’s not going to be an easy guy to take down and hold down. 

With Njokuani coming from that kickboxing background, we don’t see him wrestle much but he has mixed it in here and there regionally – he’s a BJJ black belt as well.      

But the guys that he’s able to take down or have ground based success on just haven’t been very good and despite his black belt status, he’s only got one pro win via submission in a lengthy career.      

He was able to get on top of Sousa at multiple points on DWCS and finish with GNP but that was also a product of Njokuani reversing once and Sousa pulling guard though. The ground has actually been a primary struggle for him in all six of his last losses to Koreshkov, Salter, Carvalho, Rodrigues, Duraev and Oleksiejczuk.  

He got subbed by Salter, clipped and pounded out by Koreshkov, struggled with the general pressure in the cage exchanges/top control from Carvalho, gassed out against Rodrigues and got thrown down with a lazy TD and pounded out. Duraev took the 1st via wrestling and Oleksiejczuk recently pounded him.    

I will say that he fared better in grappling exchanges in nullifying dominant positions/hooks against him in both the Sousa and Dusko fights. But I still have bigger concerns with him if he does get flattened with his shoulders on the mat and is tired.      

Overall, I’d say the floor is more of a weakness for Njokuani, but his defensive wrestling has gotten a bit better since the earlier portions of his career.  

How it plays out: Both guys are not very willing wrestlers and have had some historic struggles on the bottom. But I ultimately give Zaleski more upside because he has shown more willingness to wrestle than Njokuani and I trust his get-up game far more than Njokuani’s, should either guy be grounded. But Njokuani could accrue cage minutes here.

Interesting fight as the move down to 170 appears to be a good one for Njokuani but it does need to be contextualized that his two recent wins at the weight class have come against bottom of the barrel 170s in McKee and Gooden. Despite Zaleski aging, he’s a good sized step up in competition and more on par with the level of guys that Njokuani traditionally loses to. Stylistically, it’s an interesting fight given what’s ran through above, but I do feel Zaleski is the deserved favorite and he’ll be my pick to win – not a super bullish take though.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t mind targeting this fight for finishing equity though it’s a bit tough to be comfortable with either side.

I definitely expect Zaleski to be the primary target of the two publicly. He’s been bet up and is now -200 to win, so at 8.4k, he’s going to rate out as a value. Especially with a +120 ITD line while coming off a 95-point RD 1 KO win.

At the same time, I do like Zaleski. Njokuani has folded in a couple of recent matchups, and he can be taken down and he can tire. So it gives Zaleski multiple paths to win and finish.

With that said, if Zaleski simply fights a competitive fight on the feet and it extends, he’ll likely bust, as there is zero guarantee of grappling. 

At 8.4k, it’s not a major risk to take though. He rates out very well for the price in terms of finishing upside, and ML value, and he could be a very popular target outright. I’m not sure I’ll be taking any real stand against the field here but I like Zaleski for the price a good amount and will likely have moderate exposure.

Njokuani is likely going to be the leverage side at 7.8k.

He is coming off a 100 point decision win but that’s kind of BS and not super repeatable as he got more than nine minutes of control, primarily in the clinch, and he landed an additional 60 non-sig. strikes. He doesn’t have much wrestling in his game and I primarily consider him a boom or bust striker, who is dependent on an early KO.

However, he is dangerous and experienced. And Zaleski can occasionally be hurt. Zaleski doesn’t get finished often but he’s been knocked down by a few different opponents over the years. He’s been knocked down 2x and 3x in a fight before actually, one of which he won..

I’m not a huge fan of targeting Njokuani and I don’t think this is the best matchup, but if Zaleski is far more popular, it certainly makes sense to mix Njokuani in for the leverage. He is only +325 to win ITD, but he will probably need damage to win and I don’t think a KO is a crazy outcome considering his pedigree.

I’ll likely fall in line with the field here too as I just trust him less, but with the fight projected -160 to end inside the distance overall, it’s a decent mid-range matchup to have moderate exposure to.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zaleski by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

SeungWoo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos

Fight Odds: Vallejos -596, Choi +429

Odds to end ITD: -325

DraftKings Salaries: Vallejos 9.1k, Choi 7.1k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a gunfight here between UFC debutant Kevin Vallejos and UFC veteran SeungWoo Choi.

Vallejos is an Argentine fighter who is 14-1 professionally and 23 years old. Vallejos actually fought the extremely popular Jean Silva on the Contender Series in September of 2023 when he was 21. He actually lost a very competitive 29-28 decision and was outlanded 87-71 in significant strikes. Vallejos got the better of Silva early but Silva landed the better power shots in the second half of the fight and was rightfully given the decision. That loss aged quite well and Vallejos was able to show off his boxing skills and durability in that matchup.

Vallejos later had a second chance on the Contender Series against Cam Teague. Vallejos dominated Teague and knocked him out in round one. Vallejos showed off his boxing combinations and threw some fast hands, and worked the body very well. The boxing combinations were awesome by Vallejos in that matchup and he relentlessly swarmed Teague to the body when he had him hurt. I always like when fighters attack the body.

Vallejos is very much a boxer. I actually like his hands. He has some fast hands and can mix it up to the head and body. He also likes to mix in a low leg kick from the orthodox stance. He has good power as well, and 10 of his 14 wins have come by knockout. He is also just tough as nails. He has never been finished and surviving Jean Silva in a 15 minute striking bout definitely shows that he is tough.

Vallejos can grapple a little. He isn’t a skilled grappler, but he is pretty physical and can get some occasional body lock takedowns, and ride top position and land ground-and-pound. He only has a couple submission wins in his career and I don’t consider him a good submission grappler, but he seems to work through the motions a bit and he seems competent and positionally sound. I want to see more of his grappling tested though, especially defensively.

I think Vallejos is a good addition to the UFC and he should be in some fun action fights in general. He can definitely do well on the feet in the UFC.

Vallejos will be taking on SeungWoo Choi. Standing at 6’0” with a 74” reach, Choi is a physical presence in the cage. He uses his length to aid his striking game. Choi lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.12 in return. He defends strikes at a poor 47 percent.

I kind of don’t know what to think of Choi on the feet at this point. He has had some really good performances in the cage. I thought he looked quite good against Yousef Zalal, and he has shown some flashes of big power as well. However, he has looked poor lately and has been knocked down SIX times in his last four fights. I thought he looked underwhelming against Josh Culibao and Michael Trizano. He most recently was knocked out by Steve Garcia. I just never know what to expect from him. His durability surely seems to be a weakness and I do not trust his chin.

Choi doesn’t grapple often and only lands 0.86 takedown per 15 minutes. He defends takedowns at a decent 70 percent. I think he will get outgrappled by the top grapplers of the division but his defensive grappling is probably good enough to nullify the grappling of a lot of the division. He has been prone to back takes more than anything as both Caceres and Tucker RNCd him.

Choi is just an okay action fighter IMO. He has some power, is physical, and is capable of obtaining top position on guys. However, he has had low volume in some matchups and has been hurt and outgrappled in matchups. So there are plenty of ways for him to lose.

As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will probably strike. I don’t really expect either guy to dominate on the mat but I suppose either guy could get top position because neither are the most accomplished grapplers in the world.

I still think the winner of the striking will be the winner of the fight though. I honestly just like the inside boxing of Vallejos more and I think he is the more durable fighter. Vallejos is just very dangerous and hits hard and I just think Choi’s chin will probably get cracked at some point. Usually when Choi gets hit hard, he doesn’t respond well. So honestly, I just think these guys will bang it out and Choi will be more likely to be hurt. I do think Vallejos winning by knockout seems to be the most likely outcome of the fight.

Choi is still reasonably skilled and dangerous though, and he is just so much bigger than Vallejos. Choi will have a six inch height advantage which is just enormous. Striking is also very high-variance so if Choi happened to hurt Vallejos, I wouldn’t be shocked.

I still am picking Vallejos here though as I just think he will get the inside boxing exchanges that he wants and eventually hurt Choi.

—

On DraftKings, I expect Vallejos to be among the most popular fighters on the entire slate at 9.1k.

He’s been bet up since open and is now sitting at a near -600 price tag, putting himself very much in line with You and Musasa as the heaviest favorite this weekend. However, he’s only 9.1k instead of 9.5k and 9.4k. Plus, people will see how often Choi has been knocked down recently so it’s a bit of an obvious play.

With that said, Vallejos is another very boom or bust target. We’ve had a lot of these recently and they’ve basically all come through. It’s just going to give the public more confidence in these types.

I do think Vallejos can win by KO but in his fight against Silva, he landed 71 sig. strikes in 15 minutes. Had he been awarded the decision, he would have scored 58.4 DK points. Against Teague he landed 48 sig. strikes in round one though – Teague is largely a punching bag but I do think Vallejos has more volume upside than he showed against Silva.

Regardless, he’s likely not going to wrestle, and Choi also doesn’t absorb strikes at a super high clip. Volume won’t get it done here. Vallejos needs a knockout.

Fortunately, the UFC is intentionally giving him a guy who’s been knocked down by four opponents in a row, and some of them aren’t great strikers. So it’s pretty clear Vallejos has potential. I really like his boxing combinations and I think he’s a potentially very strong prospect. He’s -275 to win ITD.

At 9.1k, I’m probably going to have a lot of Vallejos by default. He’s just an easy click at this price tag for upside. When I can pay up further, I’ll absolutely consider other options though.

I expect Vallejos to be very popular so there’s definitely merit to strategically coming in underweight. But he’s going to rate out very well, albeit boom or bust, and having moderate exposure at 9.1k is a fair place to land.

Choi at 7.1k doesn’t interest me much.

I’ve backed him at times and I remember picking him to beat Zalal as a big dog (which he did, kind of funny in hindsight). But he’s just low-volume and has topped 56 sig. strikes once in 10 UFC fights. He doesn’t really wrestle.

Maybe he could hurt Vallejos but I wouldn’t bet on it. He’s +850 to win ITD. Otherwise I don’t see much of a ceiling if he pulls off a very competitive split decision type of win.

Choi will be super low owned and extreme leverage, but otherwise I don’t see a lot of merit to investing in him. I will be very light myself.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vallejos by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Fight Odds: Hernandez -200, Holobaugh +170

Odds to end ITD: +135

DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.6k, Holobaugh 7.6k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Alexander Hernandez got the call to the UFC back in 2018 as a short notice replacement and scored a huge upset win/viral knockout over Beneil Dariush which put his name on the map. However, Hernandez hasn’t lived up to expectations since – he’s 7-7 in the UFC and 15-8 as a pro. Kurt Holobaugh was a part of the inaugural season of Contender Series back in 2017 but got bounced out of the promotion in his 1st stint while going 0-3. But he won the TUF 31 season four years later which earned him a 2nd promotional stay, and he’s since gone 2-1 – he’s 21-8 as a pro.

The striking component:

Hernandez has traditionally worked a pressure-based style; however, he’s shown some passivity in certain fights as well. In saying that, he’s still putting up some decent numbers (outside of the Trinaldo/Moises fights) but he’s more movement based and looking to fight in blitzes.    

Despite getting TKO’d by Dober, he did have a solid start to the fight, but it was the pressure and volume of Dober that got to him. Against Gruetzmacher, despite a step down in competition, his striking looked much more fluid and it seemed that his technical striking acumen had made some strides.   

The Moises fight was pretty competitive but he just got edged out – he smoked Breeden early – had a decent start against Moicano but broke under pressure. Similar scenario in his fight against Quarantillo – he edged out Miller – he just got out worked by Algeo, and most recently, the striking in the Jackson and Hubbard fights were competitive. 

Statistically, his output is slightly above average, landing 4.4 SLpM at 41% but there has been some grinding in some of his fights and the Trinaldo fight was just a staring contest, which is going to skew that number down.   

Hernandez likes to mix in kicks and he works a more darting in and out style with hooks and overhands. He’s not the tallest guy in the division so this is a style that he pretty much has to implement for him to be successful. Important to note that he does have power as well, finishing three of his seven UFC wins by KO.     

The main issue with Hernandez comes with his defense as he eats 4.6 SApM while defending at 57%, and he has been hurt in five of his seven UFC losses. 

Overall, I think the movement, pace (at times) and the darting in and out nature puts Hernandez as an above-average offensive striker but he’s going to still struggle with effective pressure or better range games.

Holobaugh falls more into the technical brawler category in the sense that he likes to come forward and mix it up in the pocket, but he’s shown some tools in doing so. He’s not much of a kicker but has some good combinations in tight and tends to keep a pretty consistent work rate.

I wouldn’t say he’s a huge hitter but definitely sits down on his punches and has some pop, with seven of his 21 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.  

We saw him KO Bessette on DWCS, land some flush shots on Barcelos (actually out landed him at distance), drop Burgos, KO his two most recent regional opponents and finish Knight off with strikes in the semifinals on TUF. Knight isn’t anything special but a historic tough dude who’d only been finished with strikes once prior to that. He also outlanded both Hubbard and Kruschewsky in his most recent wins.    

Defensively is where his primary issues lie as he’s eaten 4.35 SApM at 47% and nearly 8 distance per minute at 52% through his documented UFC run.   

But he’s also had to fight some solid guys in there and has generally proven durable throughout his career. His lone KO loss came to Barcelos late in their fight, which was a war with a nasty uppercut.   

What I will say though is that Holobaugh’s defense does seem to be a bit better from his 1st stint where he’s utilized some more head movement and is getting his guard back up in the pocket exchanges.   

Overall, Holobaugh’s not going be the easiest of guys to deal with on the feet because he’s going to come to fight.   

How it plays out: Both guys are hittable but the overall defensive numbers favor Hernandez and the distance offensive numbers heavily favor Holobaugh. Hernandez has more conventional power than Holobaugh but Holobaugh has more attritional elements to his game and he’s who I trust more in an extended fight in terms of pacing and optics. There’s sufficient arguments to be made both ways but macro wise, the dynamic is Hernandez early and Holobaugh late.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Hernandez is a respectable entry-based wrestler when he chooses to pursue and is a BJJ black belt.     

His TD metrics are underwhelming though, landing only 0.9 per 15 minutes at 29% and he’s really struggled with control in the UFC outside of his fight with OAM where he was able to get nearly eight minutes of control time.     

But to Hernandez’s credit, he hasn’t exactly had the easiest of guys to “grind”. I thought he would against Dober, but Dober’s leveled up quite significantly in recent years.     

You actually have to go back to his regional footage where that was really his bread and butter, getting the large majority of his fights down and scoring more ground-based finishes. In that, he’s got a good back take and RNC, but we haven’t seen a ton of offensive grappling prowess from him in the UFC outside of his fight with OAM and a brief arm-triangle against Billy Q.  

Defensively, we haven’t seen him tested much outside of his fight with Moicano.  

He actually put-up good resistance early on against Moicano but eventually got choked out after getting tagged on the feet – no shame really as Moicano is a monster on the floor.    

He also started to eat heavy ground strikes from Billy Q in the 2nd round and did get threatened with a choke at the end of the Miller fight.

But the wrestling of Jackson played a pivotal role in that decision where Hernandez conceded three TDs and six minutes of control.

Overall, despite our sample, it’s still a bit difficult to assess Hernandez’ ground game at this point in time because any real defensive issues have been primarily damage and cardio based.  

Holobaugh comes from a grappling background where he holds a black belt in BJJ. But the ground has been up and down with him throughout his more recent career.   

He hasn’t been the most proactive wrestler but definitely has submission competency, with 10 of his pro wins coming via sub.   

He subbed Hammond in his 1st TUF fight after being able to reverse position with a guillotine and finish, but he was losing the overall wrestling and grappling exchanges up until that point.   

He got to Hubbard’s back but it was off a failed TDA from Hubbard – he eventually went to mount and hit an armbar triangle transition to eventually finish. Hubbard was winning the early wrestling exchanges though.   

We recently saw him get held down for the large majority of the fight against Ogden and he conceded some ground time against Kruschewsky, but avoided some viable sub attempts.

Barcelos and Moises were also able to outwrestle Holobaugh – Moises more so in being able to accrue higher amounts of top time – he worked up better under Barcelos. His general hips are kind of trash to be honest and as he’s only stuffing TDs at 42%. 

But Holobaugh does have an aggressive guard and will look to sweep and create space. The times he’s gotten controlled have been when the opponents have really prioritized that, but he can work up if given the proper space.   

Overall, the ground is a bit jekyll and hyde for Holobaugh, but I’d still classify it as more of a negative than a positive when fighting a better brand of competition.  

How it plays out: Both guys have underwhelming wrestling metrics but Hernandez is the better wrestler of the two who’s conceded less overall minutes on the bottom. But what’s interesting is that Hernandez hasn’t been as proactive of a wrestler and he gets tired doing so anyway, so I’m not sure how much wrestling is actually in his game plan. He could definitely get earlier top time on Holobaugh though. Similar to the striking, I could see Holobaugh’s offensive wrestling opening up on the back end of this fight if Hernandez slows down and he’s probably the more likely party to score a submission.

Tricky fight as are most with Hernandez given his inconsistency coupled with Holobaugh getting into many back and forth exchanges. I think favoring Hernandez on youth and power is probably fair but Holobaugh isn’t the type of fighter you want to slow down against which is why I consider him a very live underdog this week and will actually pick him for the upset. Hernandez has shown the dog in him sometimes but the reality is when Hernandez isn’t finishing his opponents, he’s never cleanly won and his fights are always close. Give me the mangy vet to probably struggle early but turn the tides in round two to edge out a greasy decision.

—

On DraftKings, this is an interesting matchup and one I plan on targeting.

I just love Holobaugh. He’s been a favorite of mine since his first run in the UFC, and I’ve notoriously picked him to win in too many fights. In fact, it’s possible I’ve picked him to win every single time since 2018.

He’s just so aggressive, and he has the pacing to break opponents. What I’ve absolutely hated recently though is his defensive wrestling. I am far more concerned about him getting held down for long periods of time now than I was before, and I am worried about that in this particular matchup. I also don’t think Hernandez fairs well in brawls so it does set up well for Holobaugh if he can extend the fight.

Holobaugh is probably the easier target of the two for me at 7.6k. There aren’t many dogs I like but Holobaugh is one of them.

I’m still not the biggest fan of him this week and don’t think it’s an easy matchup, but Hernandez just doesn’t win rounds easily and he has a lot of issues. He can tire and he can be hurt. Holobaugh is a really dangerous fighter and I do think there’s some potential he breaks Hernandez and finds a finish.

Holobaugh is +240 to win ITD which is a better number than what Hernandez has, and so he’ll rate out well enough for 7.6k. He could be popular-ish coming off a 102 and 101 point win in his last couple of victories, but I consider him a quality secondary target overall.

You definitely don’t have to prioritize Holobaugh though. I don’t think he has much wrestling equity here and strikes alone may not lead to a big score. I really like the pricing + the style of Holobaugh in that he’ll fight aggressively for three rounds, and we’ve seen Hernandez get broken in the past. There’s risk but he’s a good secondary option for the price tag with some upside.

Hernandez at 8.6k feels like a potentially very strong tournament target to me.

I do not trust him at all, but what I do trust is Holobaugh’s pacing. It means that in order for Hernandez to win, he’ll need to produce offense. It could come in the form of a knockout but it could also come in the form of multiple takedowns and lots of top control.

In Holobaugh’s UFC losses, he gave up 3 takedowns and 11 min of control to Ogden, 4 takedowns and 8 min of control to Moises, he was subbed by Burgos and he was knocked out by Barcelos. Every opponent scored well and most put up optimal scores.

Hernandez is still risky, and he’s actually only +375 to win ITD, but I don’t think the public will trust him and he probably will be the leverage side here. If he wins, he’ll probably need to do damage or wrestle and I think either outcome is possible.

I don’t want to prioritize Hernandez but if he projects to be semi-contrarian, I would be happy to come in overweight to be involved in this kind of scoring environment. He saves enough salary at 8.6k to potentially help you pay up to the top end as well.

Overall this is a decent fight to target given that scoring environment, despite it being likely to go the distance at -165. Both fighters have shown upside in their wins and both have some questionable defensive aspects of their games. It isn’t a lock fight but it’s among the handful I am happy to target this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holobaugh by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson

Fight Odds: Blackshear -503, Gibson +375

Odds to end ITD: +140

DraftKings Salaries: Blackshear 9.2k, Gibson 7k

Weight Class: 135

We have a bit of an odd booking, but I suppose a fun matchup between Da’Mon Blackshear and Cody Gibson.

Gibson is now in his second run in the promotion, having fought from 2014-15 before getting cut. He returned in 2023 and has since gone 2-2, beating both Chad Anheliger and Brian Kelleher.

Gibson is a wrestler by base and a JUCO All-American, but I’d only classify him as average as it relates to the UFC. He is averaging 2.18 takedowns per 15 minutes but in eight UFC bouts, he’s only topped two takedowns twice – one of those times came in 2014 and the other came in his most recent fight in 2024.

Gibson is also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu but again I’d only classify him as average. He pulled off a nice first-round arm-triangle submission over Kelleher, but he only holds five submission wins in his pro career.

More importantly, Gibson has been submitted four times in 10 pro losses. The most recent time came in 2017 though, so it’s fair to assume he has leveled up since, but he’s been guillotined three different times and I don’t feel fully comfortable in his defense.

On the feet, Gibson is again just average. He’s generally not a fighter you want to trust on the feet, but he’s capable and had a banger of a scrap against Brad Katona in 2023, which he lost. But he landed 164 sig. strikes over 15 minutes and absorbed 160.

Gibson has a handful of knockdowns and potentially the more positive aspect is that he’s never been knocked out. He’s been hurt before, but not enough to be stopped and over a pretty large sample.

Gibson is ultimately just a very experienced and well-rounded guy. I don’t particularly trust him in any area but he’s capable and his success will largely be matchup dependent. Landing five takedowns and controlling Anheliger for 12:25 in his last matchup is one example of that.

Now he’s a huge dog against Da’Mon Blackshear, who is surely the better prospect of the two and is coming off a solid first-round submission win over Cody Stamann in November.

Blackshear is now 3-3-1 in the UFC but he’s fought solid competition, including Montel Jackson, Mario Bautista, Farid Basharat and Youssef Zalal. He lost to all those guys, with the exception of Zalal where he earned a draw.

Blackshear isn’t a dependent grappler, but that’s clearly his biggest strength and that’s primarily where he’s going to excel at this level.

He isn’t the best pure wrestler, but he’s solid and seems to be improving. He averages 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and has topped out at four against Bautista.

Where he’s truly strong is on the mat though, as a black belt in jiu-jitsu, Blackshear is crafty and can tangle you up. He’s got a diverse arsenal of submission including a Twister which he hit on Jose Johnson in 2023. Of his 15 pro wins, 10 have come by submission.

I don’t love Blackshear’s defensive wrestling though, which currently stands at 68 percent. Most who have wanted to take him down have had success, and he can be controlled a bit, though he’s strong enough as a defensive grappler to survive.

Blackshear gassed out a bit against Zalal in his UFC debut and also struggled late against Bautista, but his cardio isn’t awful.

On the feet, Blackshear is mediocre but improving. I used to think he had nothing to offer outside of the occasional kick, but he’s shown more power components as of late.

He hurt Stamann badly with a flying knee and then rocked him after with a straight that directly led to the submission. He also landed 90 sig. strikes in 15 minutes against Bautista, which was spread out well between the head, body and legs.

His other two UFC decisions had more wrestling but he only landed 27 and 46 sig. strikes in those fights. He can definitely be slow paced at times.

Blackshear was also knocked dead by Montel Jackson in 18 seconds in 2024. Jackson is a powerful guy and I don’t think Blackshear has awful durability, but it’s perhaps something to note.

Overall I think Blackshear is a very strong grappler and someone who I’d primarily want to trust against weak grapplers.

However, he’s not a stand out defensive fighter or striker and unless he has a clear grappling edge, fights can certainly be competitive and he can lose rounds.

As far as the matchup, it’s a bit of a weird one. I’m not sure either fighter is going to dominate anywhere, despite Blackshear being a huge favorite.

However, Blackshear is definitely the more tricky grappler and considering Gibson has been subbed a few times in his career, I think Blackshear has more upside of the two. I don’t think Blackshear can take Gibson down easily or often, but a few takedowns seems reasonable and it’s very possible he can wrap up a choke in the process.

At the same time, Gibson could take Blackshear down and potentially consolidate some top control.

If the fight plays out on the feet, I’d guess it would be competitive. I’d probably favor the speed and range kicking game of Blackshear but Gibson is tough to hurt and Blackshear usually isn’t the type to have success in a war.

The career trajectory is certainly positive for Blackshear and I think favoring him on that alone makes sense. That, and his superior submission grappling. I really wouldn’t be shocked if he submitted Gibson along the way.

It’s just also hard to project a high volume of takedowns and control for Blackshear unless he can just sit on Gibson’s back for minutes at a time. Excluding the dominant positions on the mat for Blackshear, I would expect the fight to be competitive as Gibson is very experienced, and he could strike/wrestle enough to swing a round or two potentially.

—

On DraftKings, Blackshear is priced up to 9.2k which will make him difficult to prioritize in a strong top range.

With that said, Blackshear has shown upside. He’s scored 114, 115 and 101 in his three UFC wins, though they’ve all come ITD. He’s only +160 to win ITD here though in a fight that’s -170 to go the distance.

If Blackshear is winning by decision, I doubt he scores enough to be optimal at this price. He just likely won’t wrestle or strike at an extreme enough rate to stand out at this price tag, though I think his wrestling base gives him a solid floor.

The other minor concern I have is that because Blackshear is submission oriented, it could actually hurt his upside. If he jumps on a guillotine choke, that won’t score as well as a KD or several takedowns with GnP and a RNC. He has zero knockdowns in the UFC thus far.

I don’t completely hate Blackshear though. He’s shown finishing ability and he’s priced cheaper than some other high-end targets. Especially if I can’t afford to pay up, I don’t mind mixing in Blackshear. I also think he can realistically submit Gibson given his trickiness on the mat, and if he does, it probably comes early.

It’s just not a stand out play here as without the submission, Blackshear probably misses the optimal. He’s a quality secondary target overall though since takedowns and a sub are within the range of outcomes.

Gibson at 7k probably isn’t worth a big investment.

My only hesitation is that he has paths to victory. He could strike competitively with Blackshear and he could land takedowns. I just don’t think he can do much with the takedowns and Blackshear isn’t the type to absorb a lot of strikes.

So realistically, Gibson’s ceiling is capped in this matchup. He is +800 to win ITD which makes sense.

He’s also coming off a 92 and 111 point score, and we’ve already seen Blackshear knocked dead. He’s experienced enough to potentially give Blackshear a challenge. 

At a lower ownership with leverage, I don’t think Gibson is the worst low-end target. But he’s only a low-end target who won’t rate out particularly well, and I’m expecting Blackshear to likely edge him out everywhere and get his hand raised.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blackshear by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

SuYoung You vs. AJ Cunningham

Fight Odds: You -633, Cunningham +450

Odds to end ITD: -140

DraftKings Salaries: You 9.5k, Cunningham 6.7k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am looking forward to this fight between SuYoung You and AJ Cunningham. I say that mostly because I think You looks like a solid fighter and I am excited to see him perform again this weekend. We bet You big in his Road to UFC championship final against Baergeng Jieleyisi and he dominated the fight.

You is a Korean fighter who is 14-3 professionally. His losses have come to good competition and he has a few solid wins as well. He is 29 years old.

You comes from a grappling background and is a BJJ black belt. You can see the grappling in his game, and I consider him a solid wrestler capable of landing a ton of takedowns in a fight. In two of his Road to UFC fights, he landed four and eight takedowns. His takedowns are legitimately good and diverse. He has throws in his game, a good double leg, and a good snatch single. I actually think his takedowns are like American / Russian good and not just Asian good. He also has fantastic takedown defense and a great get-up game. Not many people are going to take and hold You down even at the UFC level. He is generally going to win the positional battle in his fights.

I have seen You control many opponents. I consider his top game pretty good and he is a capable submission grappler who can advance position and ride position. He can also lock in occasional body triangles. He has five submission wins in his career and has never been submitted. He can also wrestle for a hard three rounds and I consider his cardio a strength. He has fought into the 4th and 5th rounds multiple times.

You’s weakness is probably his striking. However, I even said before his Road to UFC final fight that he could probably outstrike his opponent Jieleyisi which he did. He isn’t bad on the feet and he is functional. He has an okay jab and occasional leg kicks. However, he is a bit short and compact and a little limited as a striker in general. I do think he is very tough though, and a solid athlete. He can likely outbox underdeveloped strikers. He isn’t bad on the feet or anything but I don’t think he will thrive at the UFC level with it against good strikers.

Overall, I think You looks like a solid fighter. His wrestling is good and he should be able to beat average to below-average grapplers with it. He probably can’t dominate good wrestlers though. He also seems tough with good cardio and can go through the motions on the feet. I am pretty confident that he has a place in the UFC.

You will be taking on AJ Cunningham who is absolutely awful and was wrecked in his UFC debut against Ludovit Klein. Klein took him down a couple of times, beat him up on the feet and finished him before the first round ended.

Cunningham previously fought Steven Nguyen on the Contender Series in September of 2023, and got the shit kicked out of him and eventually finished.

Cunningham is just so hittable on the feet. I do like that he is aggressive and will swing hard, but he is just not skilled or technical on the feet at all. He keeps his head on the centerline and is going to get knocked out in the UFC again. He is a knockout waiting to happen and just takes too much punishment. He is at least big though at 5’10.”

Apparently Cunningham is a BJJ black belt and he does have some submissions on his record. The issue is that he isn’t a very good wrestler, and I don’t think his grappling even looks very good. He can be taken down himself too.

Overall I just don’t think Cunningham is UFC level. He is probably reliant on winning by random finish at this level. He just isn’t good at anything and has no defense.

As far as this matchup goes, I just think You is better everywhere. I don’t think Cunningham can wrestle You at all and You could probably land takedowns here and control Cunningham on the mat. Maybe Cunningham can survive because he is a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted, but I still do not buy his skills on the mat.

Even on the feet, I think You is better. You is just SO much better defensively and he can probably just box Cunningham up with his jab and land leg kicks. I just think Cunningham is so hittable that You may just knock him out. Cunningham simply takes too much damage.

Overall, I just think Cunningham is outgunned. Cunningham is aggressive and big though so maybe he can just clip You with something. That is really his only path to victory though as I just think You is the more well-rounded fighter with the better process.

—

On DraftKings, You is actually the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k which I suppose isn’t a surprise given the matchup.

Given You’s grappling pedigree, and the opponent in front of him, he is going to be squarely in play this week. The primary issue I suppose is that You chose not to aggressively grapple in that debut, and underperformed because of it.

It’s great from a real-life standpoint in that he has additional outs, but from a fantasy standpoint, I would much prefer he chase grappling. Especially at 9.5k, a decision win won’t cut it. You scored only 74 points in his last decision with two takedowns, and he didn’t wrestle much in rounds two or three.

Despite Cunningham being a black belt, I doubt he can compete with You on the mat. So I still think there is finishing upside, and grappling domination equity. We’ve seen You land eight takedowns on the Road to UFC which is a lot, and I still want some exposure to him for that reason. Cunningham got taken down a couple of times in round one of his last fight and I saw opportunities to take the back.

Additionally, You could have KO upside. I wouldn’t want to rely on it but Cunningham isn’t defensively sound, so he could easily get hurt. There’s just more risk here as You has already proven he can fight smart, and safely, which is tough for this price.

Plus, there are other big ITD options priced nearby. So if you wanted to prioritize Musasa or Vallejos, for example, that would be fine. It may be tough to pay up this high given the lack of underdog options.

I just think this could be a decent buyback opportunity. You’re probably getting one of the best wrestling options on the slate who is still -110 ITD at a lower ownership than others. He might even be semi-contrarian. So in that sense, I do like You and I probably want exposure to him on every slate.

It may be hard to plant my flag here given the price, and I will very likely spread out my exposure, but I won’t be ignoring You simply based on his UFC debut score.

Cunningham at 6.6k needs a knockout.

I don’t expect it and considering he’s a huge dog, I’m not going to be playing him with a limited number of lineups. He should be very low owned though and there is variance in striking exchanges. He’ll be four inches taller and longer than You so simply by being aggressive he could randomly land a shot.

Cunningham is +675 to win ITD though and is simply a low-end punt. Sprinkle him in if you wish for randomness and KO upside but he’s not a great fighter nor is this a great matchup on paper.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: You by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

UNDERCARD

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann

Fight Odds: Cortes-Acosta -171, Spann +147

Odds to end ITD: -170

DraftKings Salaries: Cortes-Acosta 8.3k, Spann 7.9k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a sloppy fight here in the heavyweight division as Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Ryan Spann will slug it out.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (I will call him Waldo to save time) is hoping to build upon his grappling based decision win against Despaigne last year.

Waldo is from the Dominican Republic, a powerhouse baseball country which was his original sport, but he was kicked out of the Cincinnati Reds’ organization after getting into a fight with a teammate. He then got into boxing training and started MMA shortly thereafter so he doesn’t have a deep fighting pedigree.

Waldo honestly is decent and has fared well in the UFC thus far against low-level competition. He is clearly best as a boxer. He relies on his hands and his jab a lot. He is a pretty good athlete for HW, and I do consider his hands decent. He has some alright speed. He has power as well, and I do think he is knockout capable in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He has decent timing on his strikes.

Waldo basically just looks to land at distance and mix in dirty boxing in the clinch. His cardio looks to at least be somewhat solid and he seems like a tough dude.

Waldo lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.60 in return. Those are good metrics and I like that he lands consistently without tiring badly. Waldo also has dominated the head strike numbers in his fights thus far and that is why I played him in his matchup against Brzeski.

Waldo doesn’t look to wrestle all that often and he doesn’t really have a ground game background, so I doubt grappling is a consistent path to victory for him at this level. However, he did recently outgrapple Robelis Despaigne which isn’t saying much but it at least showed that he can take advantage of fighters with major holes. He also may just be improving in general as he is young from an MMA career standpoint.

I have seen Waldo taken down a bit on the regionals which isn’t a good sign but he at least tried to work to his feet. He got taken down by Chase Sherman which was a VERY bad look to me and Marcos Rogerio De Lima had success on the mat against him as well. However, he did at least do the right things against De Lima and tried working up to his feet, and was generally successful in getting up. I think decent grapplers can expose Waldo, but his TDD and get-ups didn’t look all that bad against De Lima, and that fight was two years ago so he probably has improved a bit.

Waldo will be taking on Ryan Spann who will be making his heavyweight debut. I am not sure why Spann is moving to heavyweight because he has only fought at middleweight and light heavyweight in his professional career. He has missed weight before at 205 so perhaps he just doesn’t feel like cutting weight anymore.

Spann is a spaz and that is the best way to describe him. Spann just comes out like a bat out of hell and tries to finish his opponents quickly.

Spann is dangerous on the feet early, and he is capable of just throwing heat and knocking opponents dead, which he did in his last knockout win against Dominick Reyes. He also really likes to try to bully grapple opponents and try to go to a power guillotine. He is almost obsessed with the move and always goes for it.

The issue with Spann is that if he doesn’t get that early knockout or early guillotine, he just has nothing else and generally gets finished himself. He just collapses and quits honestly. I don’t respect his durability at all. He has lost three of his last four fights and he looked awful in all of them. His one win was his last matchup against OSP where he just got a quick finish which doesn’t mean much to me.

Spann is not particularly skilled at anything either. His entire game is basically reliant on early explosions. He is not good in extended striking exchanges and only defends strikes at 43 percent. He is also not good in extended wrestling exchanges and only defends takedowns at 50 percent.

I just don’t trust Spann in extended fights. Sure, he may knock Waldo out or randomly get a guillotine. However, Cortes-Acosta seems super durable and seems like he knows how to stay safe on the mat. Just because of that, I think Waldo can generally just extend the fight where he should have a major advantage in terms of toughness and cardio down the stretch. Waldo should be at a major advantage on the feet in an extended fight and will probably just knock Spann out at some point or box him up.

I do think Spann could potentially have wrestling success just because Waldo is a sloppy heavyweight and a bit green. However, I think grappling success for Spann would have to come early. I would be kind of surprised if Spann outwrestled Waldo for 15 minutes. Waldo tries to work up and Spann just doesn’t have the cardio or toughness to do it for 15 minutes if he is being resisted. Spann would just need a quick submission in my opinion.

There is just a major advantage in terms of toughness here. Waldo is very tough and won’t quit while Spann just always seems to quit when he faces adversity. My guess is Acosta survives the early storm and then just finishes Spann.

—

On DraftKings, I have some interest in this fight but I don’t think it’s a lock to score well.

The dynamic seems pretty obvious to me though and Tim laid it out plainly. Spann tends to need early success, but he doesn’t have a processed game and isn’t a round winner. Cortes-Acosta is the better boxer with better volume and cardio, so I’d favor him in an extended fight and there’s some chance he wins by KO.

I guess my hesitation is that Cortes-Acosta doesn’t need the KO to win, and he might not chase it. It would probably be smart of him not to chase it actually as he can just pick Spann apart from the outside.

Spann can definitely be hurt but he’s still only been knocked down by two of his past 14 opponents. So I’m worried Cortes-Acosta only lands a moderate amount of strikes and wins by decision, which wouldn’t result in a strong fantasy score.

Spann is the easier side to target honestly even though I am not a fan. At 7.9k, I think his win condition is more tied to a finish and more tied to early success.

He’s still not a great fantasy asset, but some dumb 94 point guillotine finish like he locked up in his last win would be a good result for 7.9k (as opposed to 9.2k where he was priced last time). He is +185 to win ITD here and has the same ITD line as Cortes-Acosta.

I am definitely not going to be high on Spann but he rates out fine for his price tag, and there is enough variance in this division to give him a shot. I’d rather be underweight than overweight and I’d honestly consider betting Cortes-Acosta outright, but I don’t feel extremely strongly about it and I wouldn’t be stunned if Spann had a couple of moments early.

Cortes-Acosta is more boom or bust, and my fear is that the fight extends and he fails to find an optimal score. He’s +185 to win ITD though and he’s probably going to be the leverage side at 8.3k.

Perhaps not as he’s been getting bet up this week and is coming off a 99 point win, but that was due to wrestling and his previous decision scored 50 points. I definitely think he needs an early-ish knockout to find an optimal score, and I’m worried enough about the fight extending to the point that I’d consider him more of a secondary target than a primary one.

If Spann actually projects to be higher owned, I’d be more interested in Cortes-Acosta because he is still a better boxer and Spann occasionally gets hurt. It’s just a more risky fantasy target. At 8.3k, he’s viable enough to mix in and makes sense when you need some additional salary relief.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Stephanie Luciano vs. Sam Hughes

Fight Odds: Luciano -230, Hughes +193

Odds to end ITD: +375

DraftKings Salaries: Luciano 8.8k, Hughes 7.4k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a prospect vs. veteran matchup here between Stephanie Luciano and Sam Hughes.

Luciano has had an interesting start to her UFC career. She fought Talita Alencar on the Contender Series to a draw back in 2023. Luciano was outgrappled a bit in the first couple of rounds by Alencar and then in round three she beat the breaks off of Alencar in a 10-8 round to even the fight. Luciano still showed some decent defensive grappling in that fight. She faced 24 takedown attempts and defended 20 of them.

Luciano then fought Alencar in a rematch in her UFC debut a year after the first matchup. I actually played Luciano because I liked a lot of what I saw in the first matchup from a defensive grappling perspective, and I thought a year would give Luciano time to improve her game. Luciano dominated Alencar in the rematch. Luciano completely shut down the grappling of Alencar. Luciano outlanded Alencar 72-41 in significant strikes and won a clean 30-27 decision.

Luciano is now 6-1-1 professionally and fights out of Brazil. She is 25 years old. She is basically a striker. I actually like her striking game a bit. She has some pretty good volume. She will throw a little bit of everything and mixes in straight punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. She likes to throw a lot of kicks from the outside and she will mix it to all levels. I would say straight punches and her kicking game from the outside are her bread and butter. She also seems to have pretty good cardio and seems tough as well.

Luciano doesn’t wrestle a ton, but it looks like she can maybe take down weak grapplers and have a little success in top position. I do think her defensive grappling is pretty decent. The rematch against Alencar just showed that she has really improved her TDD. She also worked up super quickly the one time she conceded a takedown to Alencar which I loved to see. 

I still think Luciano is a bit unproven vs. decent strikers though. Her quality of competition has been poor and Alencar just isn’t a striker. I am just curious to see how she will look when someone is walking her down and throwing back. It will be interesting to see her fight someone who is just competent as a striker.

Enter Sam Hughes who will surely walk Luciano down and come after her. Hughes does at least have a few decent aspects of her game. She is tough, pretty physical, and has good cardio. She will try very hard for 15 minutes and can wear down opponents with her grind and pressure. She has had a good third round several times, and I think her cardio / physicality will always be a weapon against the low-tier fighters of this division. She even won round three against Loma Lookboonme and Piera Rodriguez who are quality opponents.

Technically, Hughes isn’t great. She lands 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes but has a pretty good body lock takedown that is assisted by her physicality. She is decent at holding top position as well and she can grind opponents.

As a striker, I haven’t historically loved Hughes’ game as it is a bit too reliant on cardio. However, I actually really think her striking has improved. She lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.46 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. 

Again, she isn’t a good striker but she is improving and can pressure and bother fighters for 15 minutes by constantly walking them down. Hughes has okay inside boxing and can have striking success with pressure. Her hand speed also looked better in her most recent matchup vs Viktoriia Dudakova.

Hughes defends takedowns at 60 percent. She can definitely be taken down. However, she generally gets up fairly quickly.

As far as this matchup goes, I think this line may be a little off. I am expecting a pretty competitive striking fight. I think if anyone has grappling success it will be Hughes. She will probably attempt some takedowns. However, I think Luciano has the takedown defense to keep this upright and the winner of the striking exchanges should win this fight.

On the feet, I think this is close. I think Luciano is a more talented striker with more weapons. She may just be a little too diverse for Hughes and mix in all of her weapons and just land a lot.

However, Hughes is just so much more experienced than Luciano. Hughes will walk Luciano down for 15 straight minutes and throw boxing combinations, and pressure Luciano and try to clinch her. I have seen Luciano pressured and eat inside boxing exchanges on the regionals. This is a step up for Luciano too. So if Hughes just walks her down and has success, it wouldn’t surprise me at all. Also, although I don’t think Hughes will easily take Luciano down, I do think Hughes can clinch her and hold her against the cage.

So overall, I do think Hughes can have success and make this a competitive affair, and I think this goes to the cards at a high rate so this may be close.

I still think Luciano will land her strikes too though. She is more talented than Hughes and has a more diverse striking game with her kicks. Hughes also has suspect defense so Luciano will surely land. I do think I will pick Luciano just because I think she is more talented.

However, I think this is going to be a close fight and I am expecting a 29-28 type of decision where the scorecards are tight and we just have a back and forth WMMA striking fight. I am just not confident Luciano covers a -250 line when she is facing an opponent who will walk her down for three straight rounds. Luciano just has never faced that style before.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t have a ton of interest in this matchup but if anything I’d lean toward the underdog in Hughes.

Luciano is just expensive at 8.8k, and this is a stacked top range this week. I do see some merit to targeting her in what could be a WMMA war, as Hughes absorbs a lot of strikes and she can yield takedowns as well.

There is a possibility where Luciano lands 100+ sig. strikes and multiple takedowns. However, that still only puts her in the 80-90 range which is likely closer to her ceiling, and still not enough at 8.8k. Her floor is also much lower and she’s coming off a 74-point win.

Luciano likely needs to finish Hughes to really stand out. Hughes has been knocked down before but she’s super tough with good cardio, so it’s not a spot I’d want to bet on. Luciano is +575 to win ITD which sucks.

I highly doubt she’ll be popular so you can play Luciano for contrarian purposes if you wish. She also has an OK floor given the pacing. But 8.8k is just expensive and I don’t see many paths where she clearly exceeds value. I expect I will be extremely light on Luciano this week.

Hughes at 7.4k is viable though not particularly exciting.

It’s a tricky slate because although I do think some deep dogs are live, they easily could lose. So we may find ourselves in a situation where we need a cheap dog who wins but doesn’t smash, just due to the salary relief. Or we may even see a loser dog in the optimal.

Hughes at 7.4k isn’t a very talented fighter but her pacing is good. She can land strikes in volume and she could definitely land 80 strikes in a loss. That’s still only 32 DK points though.

For Hughes to really be impactful, she’ll need those takedowns as well. I don’t really trust them and I don’t think she’ll do much with them, but 2-3 is possible. If she can force a high paced fight with wrestling involved, maybe that 32 point loss turns into 45 points in a loss, or even 75 points in a win.

Hughes has scored 81 and 83 in her last two wins which is OK. Her ITD line sucks though at +650.

Hughes simply is what she is. The fight is -550 to go the distance which is the heaviest line on the slate. She can be in competitive fights and Luciano is not proven. There’s some secondary merit here due to slate dynamics.

I’d also be very careful to not be overexposed to Hughes as zero parts of her game are based on skill, and she could easily just get picked apart in a loss. But for the price of 7.4k, sure, I’ll take a few chances here and there and she may have floor-based viability.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Luciano by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Fight Odds: Nurgozhay -368, Ribeiro +290

Odds to end ITD: -230

DraftKings Salaries: Nurgozhay 8.9k, Ribeiro 7.3k

Weight Class: 205

The UFC welcomes another newcomer and Contender Series contract winner in Diyar Nurgozhay this weekend, who will face Brendson Ribeiro in his debut.

Nurgozhay is 10-0 professionally at age 27, earning six wins by knockout and two by submission. He knocked out his opponent in the second round on DWCS to get his shot in the UFC.

Nurgozhay is from Kazakhstan and is primarily a boxer, but I consider him fairly well-rounded as well. He’s not the greatest athlete, but he carries power and physicality, and I think he’s a more skilled fighter than he appears at face value.

Many of his wins have come ultra-quickly, which includes seven first-round finishes, but he’s also shown impressive cardio as well in his two decision victories. Nurgozhay defeated Magomed Magomedov by three-round decision in EFC, and then went five rounds against Konstantin Andreitsev for the EFC title in 2022.

I think Nurgozhay is a bit slow, and he’s not the highest volume fighter, but I really do like his hands and he seems very effective with his boxing. He can come forward and be aggressive, but he often prefers to counter as well which we saw on DWCS.

There is some negative in that though. In the first round on DWCS, Nurgozhay only landed 15 significant strikes in the first round, while he absorbed 15 as well. It was a very competitive round and he could have lost it.

In the second round, he started to land more cleanly and then landed a sick head kick to end the fight, knocking his opponent to the canvas.

Again, I view Nurgozhay as pretty effective and he seems to carry power, and diversity. But he can be in competitive rounds given his lower volume style.

To his credit, he hasn’t seemed to face much adversity. I’ve never really seen him hurt. He’s beaten some OK competition including Emiliano Sordi, the former PFL champion, who he knocked out in round one in 2024. He seems tough and durable which gives me more confidence in his potential at the UFC level.

Additionally, Nurgozhay can wrestle. I don’t think he’s a great wrestler, but he’s capable, and he will occasionally mix in takedowns. His submission game doesn’t look too strong but his ground-and-pound is fine. He can damage opponents from top position and finish fights.

His defensive wrestling looks fine as well. I’ve seen him taken down a couple of times but he scrambled up, and I’ve seen him defend well in the clinch at times too. Perhaps very good wrestlers will beat him on the mat, but I think he can hold up to most average competition and he probably even has an edge over a lot of the division there.

So ultimately, Nurgozhay looks solid to me. Not the best athlete, not necessarily elite in any one area but a pretty solid boxer. He’s skillful, he can mix it up, and he’s tough and durable.

Nurgozhay will be taking on Brendson Ribeiro, who just won his first fight in three tries in the UFC, defeating Caio Machado by decision in November.

He was previously knocked out in his UFC debut by Zhang Mingyang, and he lost a close decision to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov as well.

I was not high on Riberio entering the UFC, though some were in his initial matchup against Mingyang. Ribeiro had landed some clean shots at distance in the first minute before Mingyang connected and knocked him out cold.

It wasn’t far off from what we’d seen on the regional scene, and I had categorized Ribeiro as a kill or be killed fighter.

He then went the distance against Gadzhiyasulov but the final two rounds were pretty concerning. Ribeiro got off to a decent start and landed three takedowns in round one, but he got tired, and was then taken down and held down for 8.5 of the final 10 minutes of the contest.

Ribeiro is now 16-7 professionally, and he’s earned nine wins by KO and six by submission. If you’re keeping track, that means he’s coming off his first career decision win which I suppose was impressive. 

However even against Machado, Ribeiro didn’t look great. He was outstruck 76 to 49 and distance but neither side was very impactful, and Ribeiro had a couple of moments that allowed him to swing two rounds.

Ribeiro is a fine thai striker, and capable of damaging his opponent, but it’s hard to trust in his volume or durability or cardio. Coming off back-to-back decisions where he landed 46 and 17 sig. strikes, I just don’t consider Ribeiro a great producer of offense.

Ribeiro can also wrestle, but many of his wins have come against a low level of competition. Given the right circumstance, Riberio can advance position and lock up a submission, and he has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu.

However, we’ve seen him taken down, both on the regional scene and in the UFC. I’ve seen him reversed. And he doesn’t look particularly good from his back. I’ve seen him give up position and give up his back to stand up.

He was also knocked unconscious from ground-and-pound in 2022, in a fight that he was winning prior. He’s been KOd three times in total and submitted twice.

Now I’m highly skeptical of his cardio against anyone who pushes him as well, which relates back to his lack of decision wins.

At this point, I really only have some faith in Ribeiro during the early minutes, where he’ll very likely need to find a finish. If he can’t secure it, I don’t trust in his offensive production, and I especially don’t trust in his durability.

I do think Ribeiro can have early success against Nurgozhay, but I still wouldn’t favor him. Ribeiro will be one inch taller with a huge seven-inch reach advantage, and that’s where I think he’ll need to have success to win this fight.

He’s going to be longer and he needs to pick Nurgozhay off at distance. He can kick a little bit, and kicks will be open as Nurgozhay fights Southpaw, so perhaps Ribeiro can land a damaging strike or just get ahead on the numbers early.

However, it’s very difficult to trust Ribeiro over the duration. Even with the length advantage, I think it’s pretty likely Nurgozhay can hurt him, get in close and counter with his boxing. I definitely favor the durability and cardio of Nurgozhay here.

I also think Nurgozhay is the better wrestler, but it may not be a huge edge. Ribeiro is probably the better submission grappler and could maybe land a takedown of his own. I don’t think he’d do much with it outside of an early submission or guillotine attempt.

He may be able to defend from his back but he’s shown a poor get-up game, and I think Nurgozhay can ride top position, or land damaging ground-and-pound. From boxing or ground-and-pound, I think it’s quite possible Nurgozhay can hurt Ribeiro badly enough to find the stoppage.

I am a bit hesitant to be overconfident in Nurgozhay because he’s making his debut and will be at some length disadvantages. He’s not the highest paced guy. I think he’s clearly the more well-rounded fighter here and the more dangerous guy in general. If he can survive a couple of early moments from Ribeiro, I expect him to eventually find boxing and/or wrestling success and do enough damage to win rounds or find the stoppage.

—

On DraftKings, Nurgozhay is priced up to 8.9k and I think he’s a viable target this week for finishing equity.

The risk is in his style. He won’t throw a ton of volume, and he may not wrestle. An extended fight could mean risk of underperforming.

Even in his second round KO on DWCS, Nurgozhay only landed 30 sig. strikes, which would have scored in the low 90s. That might not be optimal at 8.9k. A decision would probably mean he busts.

Nurgozhay is -125 to win ITD though, and Ribeiro has been finished in five losses, including in round one. Nurgozhay has many first round wins on his record, and he also has wrestling equity here.

I think this is partially boom or bust, but I do think Nurgozhay can win ITD and it could come early, so I don’t mind chasing the upside a bit. I don’t consider him a stand out but he’s cheaper than the strong 9k range, and makes for a decent target for the price.

There’s no reason to be overconfident here and I wouldn’t necessarily call him safe, but I like Nurgozhay as a tournament target and I’m hopeful he can find a finish and exceed value on DK.

Ribeiro at 7.3k is a pretty weak tournament target though he has some early upside on paper.

Most of his wins have come ITD, so based on that alone, he’ll carry finishing equity. I would much prefer to target him against someone who’s less durable though, or has crappy cardio. I don’t think Ribeiro can easily find a finish here and so I’m not inclined to target him much.

Ribeiro is only +350 to win ITD, which shows some equity but not a ton. At 7.3k, at a super low ownership with possible leverage, he’s OK in large fields.

But I don’t consider Ribeiro a great fighter, nor a great target in this matchup. He has shown minimal offensive production and is largely boom or bust, dependent on a random early finish. Play a bit of him if you like but I expect I will be pretty light on Ribeiro with a limited portfolio myself.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurgozhay by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Carlos Vera vs. Josias Musasa

Fight Odds: Musasa -725, Vera +500

Odds to end ITD: -220

DraftKings Salaries: Musasa 9.4k, Vera 6.8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am excited to see Josias Musasa make his UFC debut this weekend against Carlos Vera. I say that because I think Musasa is a decent looking prospect and I am interested to see how he develops.

Musasa is 8-0 professionally and fights out of the Congo. I believe this is only the second Congolese fighter in the history of the UFC with Cheick Kongo being the first. The Congo is one of the poorest countries in the world. It has been characterized by widespread poverty, political corruption, and civil war / conflict for decades. So this kid definitely overcame a lot of adversity just to make it here.

Musasa booked his ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series. He won a split decision against a solid undefeated Georgian opponent and Merab Dvalishvilli’s training partner Omari Tanzilovi. Tanzilovi was actually the favorite in that fight and definitely belongs in the UFC too. It was a back and forth striking affair and Musasa was actually outlanded in significant strikes 68-50. Musasa definitely landed the better shots though, especially in the second round. There were a few takedowns mixed in by both guys but neither guy could hold the other one down. It was a very close fight.

Before the Contender Series, Musasa knocked out all seven of his opponents, mostly in round one. The competition wasn’t great but Musasa still looked good in these matchups.

Musasa is a really good athlete. He reminds me a bit of an early career Manel Kape, not really in stance or fighting style but because of athleticism and how raw he is. He is truly a freak athlete but like Kape in his early career, he is obviously very raw. I think he is an interesting prospect because he is obviously very green and still has a lot of development to do, but he can already probably do well against many UFC fighters just because he is so fast and athletic.

Standing out of the southpaw stance, Musasa is a really fast striker and he generally likes to strike. Obviously he is raw, but he has a really fast left hand. He also has a good rear low kick which he will land on the inside leg of orthodox fighters. He has power too. 

I do think he has improvement to do though and he could pick up the volume at times.

Musasa also showed really good cardio in that Contender Series fight against Tanzilovi. Just because he is so fast and athletic and uses a lot of energy, it wouldn’t have been shocking to see him slow down. However, his cardio generally looked strong and I am confident he can fight for three rounds with no issue. 

I also thought Musasa showed really good TDD and get ups in that fight. Tanzilovi is a good grappler and didn’t have much success holding Musasa down. I am not sure how much Musasa will wrestle offensively in the UFC though and he hasn’t shown off that skillset much yet.

I think Musasa is ready for the UFC. He is a very athletic guy and can strike well with his speed. He will also be difficult to hold down too. He can probably knock people out at this level or just outstrike them by being faster than them. He is very green though which means he clearly is not a finished product. So I actually am interested to see how he develops because he definitely has some talent and athletic attributes.

Musasa will be taking on Carlos Vera. Vera is an Ecuadorian fighter who is 11-4 professionally and 37 years old. So I doubt he is going to be making improvements.

Vera is actually a student of Ryan Hall and like Hall he has a bit of an unorthodox BJJ game, but he is not nearly as good as Hall as a submission grappler.

On the feet, Vera is very limited and basically can just land leg kicks. He isn’t much of a striking threat. The other issue is that even though Vera is a BJJ fighter and needs the fight on the ground, he doesn’t have the best offensive wrestling. Sometimes he doesn’t even look to shoot takedowns either. His defensive wrestling is not there but he doesn’t care as he just wants the fight on the mat anyway.

The limited game of Vera has been an issue in his UFC affiliated career thus far. He fought Brad Katona on TUF and was basically neutralized. He lost the striking exchanges and was kind of controlled on the mat and against the cage. He then fought Nakamura in his UFC debut and basically got neutralized on the mat and was controlled and unable to get the submission.

Both Katona and Nakamura are extremely positionally sound grapplers though, so those were tough matchups for Vera. I do think Vera is a decent submission grappler and he does have some tricky BJJ and dangerous submissions. He can use sweeps to reverse position too.

The issue is the type of game that Vera has is limited. Many positionally sound fighters can just control him on the mat and cruise to an easy decision. Good defensive grapplers can just keep the fight standing and outstrike Vera to a decision or knock him out. He has never been knocked out in 15 pro fights though.

As far as this matchup goes, I basically think Vera is submission or bust. On the feet, Vera will probably try to use his kicks to evade and try to stay safe, and limit engagements. However, Vera just probably can’t land anything meaningful and I do think Musasa can use his speed and athleticism to explode in and land his strikes.

I also don’t think Vera has the traditional wrestling to get Musasa down so there is just a good chance Musasa sprawls and brawls Vera to a finish or a comfortable decision. I don’t know if Vera will get finished right away as Vera has never been knocked out and likes to limit engagements, and Musasa may be hesitant early with the submission threat. I could also see Vera going to his back and bleeding some clock.

I still do think Vera has some tricky BJJ. He is the more skilled BJJ player and it wouldn’t completely shock me if he got ahold of Musasa and submitted him. Musasa could easily get top position here too as Vera has no defensive wrestling. Musasa may entangle too much and Vera could sweep him and get a position. I do think Musasa is green enough to get caught or do something stupid.

However, that is Vera’s only chance really and I do think Musasa looks very tough to get and hold down, and he is a freak athlete. So I think more than likely, Musasa can just explode out of any shaky situations. So I will pick Musasa to sprawl and brawl to a win. I still think Musasa is probably too big of a favorite here though as he is so green and Vera is a bit tricky on the mat.

—

On DraftKings, I think Musasa is a fine target for his knockout upside though I’m not particularly stoked to play him.

Clearly, he’s extremely boom or bust and very dependent on an early KO. He won’t land tons of volume and I would guess any real wrestling will be mitigated by Vera. He simply needs a knockout, and he needs that knockout against an opponent who has never been knocked out.

I personally think Musasa looks super green and I’m more hesitant than Tim to trust him. Musasa is fine at his base but he’s not super technically sound, and he’s defensively open. I’ve seen him rocked before too, and he’ll probably get knocked out at this level, though he absolutely has finishing power himself.

If Vera just can’t find takedowns, Musasa probably tees off on him. I could definitely see Vera falling to his back and trying to extend the fight but I highly doubt he can compete with Musasa standing. So an early KO is quite likely.

Musasa is -160 to win ITD but the fight is actually -160 Over 1.5 rounds. So it feels a bit odd.

At 9.4k, Musasa will rate out well and I’d guess he’ll be the most popular fighter in this range, alongside Vallejos. I really have no problems with targeting him, and he probably scores 100+ with a finish.

However, the higher owned Musasa is, the less of a fan I am. You is a very strong option, and Judice and Blackshear have intrigue too. Musasa is super boom or bust and with the fight projected to go past 1.5 rounds, that would make me super nervous. Plus, Vera might just fall to his back and limit engagements.

Ultimately Musasa is a green but interesting prospect who’s being set up with a decent matchup here. Good chance he gets it done. I still don’t think he’s a DraftKings lock even with a finish and I probably would aim to be near the field, or a bit under if he’s projecting as ultra chalk.

Vera at 6.8k is fine as a sprinkle.

I personally think it seems pretty obvious Musasa will be exposed by a wrestler, but his defense has looked OK thus far. He can give up initial takedowns and I am highly skeptical of his submission grappling.

There’s a good chance that Vera is levels ahead of Musasa on the mat, so if he happens to land one takedown or jump on the back in a scramble, he could find a sub. I’m not really willing to bet on it though as his wrestling looks poor and he just likes to play guard.

But at 6.8k at a super low ownership and leverage against the field, it’s not the worst large-field target. He’s +550 to win ITD with mild finishing equity. Not a great play, but there’s a lack of data here and DWCS newcomers tend to be overvalued. A dart throw, but one with at least a path to victory.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Musasa by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Daniel Barez vs. Andre Lima

Fight Odds: Lima -383, Barez +300

Odds to end ITD: +140

DraftKings Salaries: Lima 9k, Barez 7.2k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Andre Lima’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who picked up a win in his debut in pretty unconventional fashion, as he was bitten by his opponent (literally). But he rounded out last year strong and now brings his UFC record to 3-0. He remains undefeated as a pro at 10-0. Daniel Barez is a fellow Contender Series alum but was unsuccessful in his opportunity, dropping a somewhat controversial decision back in 2021. But he got the call-up as a short notice fill in 2023 to where he’s since gone 1-1 in the promotion – he’s 17-6 as a pro.

The striking component:

Lima comes from a kickboxing background where he was a champion in his native Brazil.   

Our tape on him isn’t vast but in what we have, he works in a more traditional marauding, striking style where he likes to control the center and dictate exchanges. He hasn’t been an output machine necessarily, but his shots take an impact as he’ll dig the legs and body with kicks in addition to some stronger blitzing straights. As a result, five of his 10 pro wins have come via KO although not all at distance.   

Defensively, I think he’s decent when he’s the guy going forward in being able to keep a higher shelling guard, but he did struggle a bit more when put on the back foot in his UFC debut by Severino – the distance strikes were close at 31-29 in favor of Severino, but I’d also say that Lima was landing more impactful shots.  He ate some good shots as well, so he does appear to be a pretty durable fighter but once again, we’re dealing in a smaller sample size.   

He followed that up with a more traditional, surgical performance where he just picked apart Raposo over the course of 15 minutes. Once again, the fight was fought at a slower pace where the distance strikes were 49-32 in favor of Lima, but he was evidently winning the exchanges, and he did specifically well in targeting the legs of Raposo.

More recently, he was outlanded 33-14 at distance by Dos Santos in the limited striking time we saw, and Dos Santos landed a spinning elbow at the end of round one. It was a competitive round but 2/3 judges gave Dos Santos that round.  

Overall, Lima appears to be a quality striker and has power for 125 lbs which is a good attribute, but I’d still like to see him in more distance exchanges when he’s pressured effectively – his head strike defense is pretty solid though.

Barez’s stand up has been a bit all over the board in the sense that sometimes he’s played a more passive mid-range game but in others (more recently), he’s looked to pressure from the jump.   

He’s got chopping low kicks but his bread and butter is with his boxing as his combos are tight, crisp and fast.   

He specifically excels with his hooks that then set up his body shots which have hurt multiple opponents now, with seven of his 17 pro wins coming via strikes. He’s also hurt both his UFC opponents despite not finding the finish, including Altamirano which is more impressive considering how durable he’s been over the years.   

Defensively, he’s better at range but can leave his head on the center line when he’s entering or firing off his combos. We did see Hernandez stun him at one point on the Contender Series, but Barez hurt him as well.   

He ultimately got outstruck at distance 63-45 numerically but the exchanges were competitive – it was really a later flurry from Hernandez that probably won him that fight.   

Barez did slow down a bit as well which I think was more of a product of Hernandez’ body work than Barez having bad cardio – his cardio has looked fine historically but he did slow a bit last time out against Altamirano as well so there may be something there.   

Overall, I like the boxing of Barez and he brings raw power to the weight class but may struggle with more rangy opponents that he can’t consistently get inside on.

How it plays out: The striking should be fun here as both guys are front foot oriented fighters and bring some real heat at flyweight – in addition to being sound leg kickers and possessing good hand speed. What I feel favors Lima is that he controls exchanges a bit better than Barez and I’d give him a durability edge as well. But Barez’s pressure, volume and potential ability to turn this into a dog fight could really benefit him. Additionally, Barez will be the most potent striker Lima’s fought in terms of damaging different levels which makes an interesting dynamic when referencing Lima’s historic durability.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Despite the kickboxing base of Lima, he’s a recently crowned BJJ black belt. We’ve seen the floor come into play pro and con in four of his five most recent fights.   

He’s not a guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes but he has mixed it in and has mainly excelled from the body lock to hit trips, throws or foot sweeps. He’s also shown the ability to pass and take the back although he still reps no pro wins via submission.   

Lima has jumped a few guillotines as well which I’m not the biggest fan of. His control has generally been decent, but he has lost position in attacking things before.   

Defensively, it’s a little shaky for him as I’ve seen him show some good down blocking/sprawls at times, but he also gave up five TDs in his debut to Severino. He only conceded three minutes of control though, so he was able to work up on stuff but arguably lost the 1st and appeared to be on his way to losing the 2nd. He spent some time on bottom in another regional fight as well but was able to work back up.   

Raposa went 1/2 on TDs but Lima used an effective overhook to work up quickly on the lone TD Raposo landed. It was honestly an odd game plan from Raposo to only shoot two TDs given his base and that his primary path against Lima was on the floor.

He’s coming off dominating Dos Santos on the floor though, going 2/2 on TDs racking up nine minutes of control – he also came really close to finishing an RNC in round three. 

Overall, Lima’s a guy that will probably realize more floor success against less competent opponents, but I think he may struggle here against more capable wrestlers of a UFC level – time will tell.   

Barez comes from an extensive grappling background as he’s won European no-gi and sambo championships. He’s a brown belt in BJJ to boot with six pro wins coming via submission.   

He went 5/16 on TDs against Hernandez but did struggle to control him – granted Hernandez has been a difficult guy to control in the past with a sound get up game. Traditionally, he’s not a guy that’s shooting a high volume of TDs, but he is a capable wrestler with good top side chokes.    

Defensively, he has respectable TDD and stuffed all eight shots from Hernandez, but he did slip off a knee in the 2nd and got controlled for the bulk of that round – he also gave his back up pretty early in the sequence. We also saw him lose the 1st round via wrestling to Camilo but he did threaten a somewhat tight guillotine.   

So, he’ll throw stuff up, but those two individual rounds are somewhat concerning for me in Barez’s ability to be controlled. In addition, we saw his outing against Filho where he got his guard passed quickly off one of the TDs to where he got arm triangled – Filho is a high level black belt in fairness.

Overall, he appears to be one of those “driver’s seat” types of grapplers.  

How it plays out: Both guys can be taken down but I’d give more upside to Lima in the sense that we’ve seen him controlled less and I also think he’ll serve as the physically stronger guy in the tie ups. How much he’s actually going to push TDs is questionable but I thought he showed good fight IQ last time out against Dos Santos who’s served as a pressure fighter and he broke that up with TDs in the 2nd and 3rd.

Solid fight between two guys I personally like as fighters and what they bring to the table. I side more with Lima for having higher grappling upside but I also think Barez is a stern test for him on the feet. If the fight goes 15 minutes, I’d anticipate a 29-28 type of fight.

—

On DraftKings, Lima looks pretty close to an outright fade for me at 9k.

That’s not to say he won’t win or can’t win by KO or SUB but I can’t see any real merit to prioritizing him over any option priced above him, and it’s honestly not remotely close. There are also several fighters priced below him who I would prefer.

Lima is simply too slow paced for this kind of price tag. In his three wins, he’s scored 68, 51 and 89, and the 89 point win came because he got bit and won by DQ. It absolutely feels like he needs an early finish, and he’s only +195 ITD in a fight lined -170 to go the distance.

He will be contrarian though, and probably extremely contrarian. I would assume he ends up sub 15 percent owned on this slate. So if you want a place to be unique, this is one spot. Barez has been finished before.

I just hate the pacing here, and I’m not particularly in love with Lima as a prospect. Perhaps fitting him into a small percentage of lineups makes sense if you are max entering but with a limited portfolio, he’s a pretty easy X for me and I’m just going to spread my exposure out elsewhere.

Barez is the preferred target by default at 7.2k, but I don’t love him.

I’m primarily worried about the pacing of this fight and Lima isn’t a guy who absorbs a lot of offense. Barez will likely project to land 50-60 strikes over three rounds and his wrestling has been extremely inconsistent.

He has some pop though, and he can wrestle. I think he could win a couple of close rounds here. He has more win equity than finishing equity at +550 ITD.

Maybe Barez can land 3-4 takedowns, and score close to 70 in a decision? That’s the kind of ceiling I see for him unless he randomly gets a finish, but I can’t count on that. And I just don’t love the floor here given the pacing and style of Lima.

I don’t hate Barez as a low-end target due to win equity but I also can’t call him a priority in any sense due to the fight dynamic. I’ll probably have a couple of shares of him given the price tag, to help save salary, but I wouldn’t expect to end up tangibly overweight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lima by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Fight Odds: Nunes -180, Cachoeira +154

Odds to end ITD: +150

DraftKings Salaries: Nunes 8.5k, Cachoeira 7.7k

Weight Class: 135

Throw technique out the window here. We should have a hilarious brawl between Josiane Nunes and Priscila Cachoeira on Saturday.

Both Nunes and Cachoeira are come-forward, heavy-handed brawlers with not much regard for technique or defense, but I am expecting it to be fun while it lasts.

Cachoeira has always been somewhat of a meme. She marches forward with her head in the air, setting up a perfect target to get pelted by her opponents. Most often, opponents can land cleanly but Cachoeira is quite tough and so if she survives, she has potential to break opponents in return.

She is only 4-6 in the UFC but of those four wins, Cachoeira has won three by knockout, including most recently against Ariane da Silva in 2022. That fight only lasted a minute and five seconds which is still longer than her KO victory over Shana Dobson, which only lasted a whopping 40 seconds.

Cachoeira has awful metrics as you’d expect. She lands 3.76 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 7.03 per minute with a 43 percent defensive rate. She cannot grapple either, and is a liability on the mat, defending takedowns at only 65 percent.

I don’t think grappling will come into play here against Josiane Nunes who also cannot grapple.

Nunes is a pitbull both in size and nature, standing only 5’2” which is super short for the women’s bantamweight division. She literally has no choice but to march forward and wing bombs, as her opponents will all be much taller than her. Cachoeira holds a five-inch height advantage but apparently Nunes has a two-inch reach advantage, for what it’s worth.

In that style, Nunes can have success. Again, opponents with more technique can keep her away from them and outpoint her, but as Nunes pressures, she can break opponents and land occasional big shots.

Nunes has a 3-2 record in the UFC, largely beating scrubs, but she has one KO win and she also landed two knockdowns in a win by decision over Pascual.

More recently, she was outstruck by Cavalcanti 91-52 but still pulled off a split (loss) due to landing the occasional big shot.

In total, Nunes lands 5.41 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.44 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. She lands 0 takedowns and defends at 58 percent.

I don’t see many outcomes for this matchup other than these two trading like crazy people. Nunes probably will actually be the superior technical fighter in this matchup and I favor her slightly as she probably has better defense as well.

Still, Cachoeira will march forward, and she’s bigger than Nunes. I don’t think Nunes can easily put Cachoeira away, so it’s quite possible these two just brawl. It’s difficult to analyze the fight much deeper than that.

Cachoeira has been knocked down a couple of times, including in her last loss against Jasudavicius, while Nunes has yet to be knocked down. But Cachoeira has fought better competition largely.

It’s a battle of two fighters who typically get hit a lot more than they hit their opponents, but Cachoeira has far worse metrics historically and I think her defense is just so non-existent that I’d lean toward Nunes to land more consistently and perhaps have a better shot at a knockout.

I wouldn’t feel comfortable favoring Nunes moderately though as a smaller fighter who gets hit a lot herself. Just seems like variance city here with not much process on either side. I’ll take Nunes to win a couple of rounds.

—

On DraftKings, Nunes is priced at 8.5k and has some viability given the stupidity of the matchup.

She’s not a great fantasy scorer and that will always be a concern. She’s not going to wrestle and I hate relying on knockouts in this division. Striking volume should be good but it won’t really matter as volume doesn’t score well on DK.

If we’re playing Nunes, we definitely want a knockout, or at least a knockdown. I definitely think that’s possible. Nunes is only +315 to win ITD though but with the strong volume that should come in this matchup, if she can secure a knockout, she has a legit ceiling. However, I don’t see any reason to rely on the finish.

So we’re looking at something like 75 points in a high-paced war that has no knockdowns, or potentially 100+ if she can find the KO. One will bust at 8.5k and the other will be optimal.

I don’t expect Nunes to be super popular and I understand not wanting much action here. The fight interestingly has been bet up from -130 GTD to -180 which is also a concern. I still think Nunes is an intriguing secondary play for finishing equity, but obviously it makes sense to cap your exposure pretty firmly.

Cachoeira at 7.7k has upside in a win and she’s been even more reliant on knockouts.

She’s scored 100+ a couple of times but also 77 in her last decision, so it’s the same issue. If she wins a competitive war with no knockdowns, she won’t be optimal at her price.

However, she’s big, comes forward, and swings pretty hard so she does have KO equity. She is +315 to win ITD and has been popular at times for her style. I don’t mind using her as a secondary target even though I’m a bit less trusting she can find the finish.

I’m not dying to play a lot of these underdogs though and Cachoeira has more ITD equity than many others priced below her. She’s a reasonable upside target for her price just based on pacing and fighting dynamics. I’ll likely fall in near the field myself as it’s hard to take a real stand in either direction.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nunes by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Yuneisy Duben vs. Carli Judice

Fight Odds: Judice -383, Duben +300

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Judice 9.3k, Duben 6.9k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a mess of a fight here between UFC debutant Yuneisy Duben and Carli Judice.

Duben made history on the Contender Series a few months back. She was a +1000 underdog and knocked her opponent dead in the first round. It was a sloppy fight and both fighters just swung recklessly. However, Duben did stay tough and eventually landed her big shot. It was pretty funny. It was also a brutal knockout.

Duben is 6-0 professionally and she fights out of Venezuela. She is 28 years old and apparently comes from a Taekwondo background, where she is a black belt.

Duben doesn’t have much tape available in general. Her Contender Series fight ended early and she only has a couple of regional fights available online. Her regional competition is some of the worst competition I have ever seen for a debuting fighter. Every single fighter Duben fought on the regionals had a 0-0 record at the time she fought them. Since Duben has beaten them, those opponents have almost all lost every fight since. So Duben basically has beaten a bunch of bums and you can’t take much from those fights.

I do think I have a decent idea of how Duben will fight in the UFC though. She likes to strike and she is pretty aggressive. She comes out hard and she does swing hard hooks. I actually do think she has a little bit of power. She seems fairly tough too.

However, Duben just looks like a mess and has no technique, and her opponents have been next level bad. She looks sloppy and unskilled and I don’t trust her striking defense whatsoever. My guess is she will look pretty bad against any skilled opponents who can actually land strikes back on her. That is speculation though maybe she comes improved with tighter technique.

In the one fight of Duben’s that I saw go past round one, Duben’s aggressiveness did decrease as the fight went on, and she actually looked to counter more. I am not sure she is a cardio liability or not but at least she recognized she had to pace herself a bit after she didn’t win by round one finish. I honestly don’t know what to expect of her in a high paced fight for 15 minutes.

Duben’s grappling also looks suspect. She hasn’t been tested, but I have seen her taken down here and there. She worked up but her opponents were so bad and she used no technique to return to her feet. I am pretty confident she is a liability on the mat and will get exposed there at some point. I doubt she can outgrapple opponents at this level. This is also speculation though.

Overall, Duben just looks like a pretty low-level fighter who doesn’t have much experience. I do think she will come out and swing hard and aggressively though. I actually don’t think her hurting opponents would be that fluky. I do think she hits somewhat hard. 

However, I just can’t have much faith in her until I see her prove herself at this level. Her grappling may be a huge liability. Her striking defense may be a huge liability. She may have cardio issues. She just has too many potential holes. So I have to be skeptical.

Duben will be taking Carli Judice. A Louisiana native, Judice is 3-2 professionally and is 26 years old. 

Judice fought on the Contender Series against Ernesta Kareckaite and was actually awarded a contract in a loss. She lost a back and forth split decision in a fight that generally played out on the feet. Judice actually landed a whopping 168 significant strikes in that fight but she absorbed 184 in return which isn’t great. Kareckaite is a decent fighter though so that performance can be viewed as positive.

Judice then took on Gabriella Fernandes in a fight that also took place on the feet. Judice again showed that grit and volume that she showed on the Contender Series. She actually outlanded Fernandes 169-119 in significant strikes but lost a split decision and Fernandes landed some decent power shots. Fernandes is a decent striker and did just club and sub Wang Cong, so again that close loss could also be viewed as a positive performance by Judice.

The rest of Judice’s career has taken place on the regional scene against poor competition. I haven’t really seen a ton of her ground game defensively or offensively so we are a bit blind in that regard. However, I don’t have a ton of faith in her offensive grappling in general.

Judice generally just looks to strike and I do like her aggressiveness and tenacity from an offensive striking perspective. She has some okay straight punches and seems tough with good cardio.

I still don’t actually think Judice is that skilled though and she is poor defensively. Judice is also just young and green and I want to see more of her and how she develops and progresses.

I still think Judice is way more proven than Duben though. Fernandes and Kareckaite are both UFC level fighters and Judice very well could have been given the decision in either of those matchups. We also know Judice can fight at an extremely high pace for 15 minutes. We don’t know if Duben can.

My guess is Judice is probably a bit more experienced at this point and will just consistently land on Duben, and it will probably lead to a win for her. Duben just looks so raw and inexperienced. 

Duben may also just have a random hole like getting taken down and beat up, etc. Judice doesn’t look like a strong offensive wrestler to take advantage of it easily but it is at least possible.

I still do think Duben could have some success though. Judice is very hittable and I actually do think Duben has some decent power and aggression. She can time some shots too. If Duben just shows up with cardio, this could just be a back and forth mess. So I don’t actually compete Duben out.

Still though, we truly do not know if Duben is UFC level and we do know Judice is so I will go with the more proven commodity in Judice here to get the better of the exchanges here and potentially expose some holes of Duben.

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On DraftKings, ughh, part of me wants to take shots on Judice but at 9.3k, it’s going to be difficult.

Duben could very well be a joke of a fighter and she profiles absolutely terribly from a long term perspective. Tim mentioned most of the reasons to be cautious but like I’m watching some of her tape from 2019, and it’s basically as if they just dragged two soccer moms from a local practice and forced them to fight. 

Also, it’s worth noting again that Duben has faced essentially no resistance. No decisions. She’s just throwing some occasional flurries and that’s about it. She’s small but hits hard.

At the same time, Judice is not good and she’s absorbing a massive 10.10 sig. strikes per minute. This could just be a low-level WMMA fight where both girls land but Duben hits a little harder.

I’m still definitely picking Judice. She is a few inches taller and longer, and she’s proven she can land strikes at a very high rate. It’s fair to favor her volume and experience over three rounds and she might be able to stop Duben along the way.

From a fantasy standpoint, Judice just scored 83 in a loss based on her volume, which would have been 113 in a win. I think her volume is real, but probably not to the level we’ve seen, which is a problem because we need massive volume numbers for it to matter. 

However, this matchup projects to be high paced and I feel like Judice can land a lot. I’m not sure about 165+ sig. strikes but 120+ sig. strikes seems possible. Judice is also +180 to win ITD. It’s not great but it shows some equity.

I don’t really think it’s possible to prioritize Judice at this price tag, given that You, Musasa, Vallejos and Blackshear are sitting right nearby. But Judice has shown insane volume upside in the past and if she can couple it with a finish, she could put up a smash score.

The lower owned she projects to be, the more willing I’d be to take chances on her. I expect her to be contrarian just given the nature of the other options in this range. 

I can’t really recommend that you target Judice at a high rate, and I will be prioritizing other options myself. But I am intrigued by the possibility of a high-paced war where Judice lands a ton of strikes and stops Duben by accumulation in the middle rounds. At low ownership, it’s at least one route to consider if you’re aiming to be unique in this top range.

Duben at 6.9k is unfortunately in play as well.

I really don’t want to invest a single cent in her, but the pure fact that Judice is absorbing such massive striking numbers absolutely gives Duben a shot. In a win, she’ll need to produce a lot of volume, and probably hurt Judice along the way.

This won’t be a priority target of mine by any stretch, but I’ve learned over the years that targeting these deep WMMA dogs in debut fights is worth a look. Duben is +500 to win ITD but a KD is viable.

More importantly, Duben is 7k and will rate out well from a floor standpoint. The fight is still -150 to go the distance and even in a loss, Duben may land 100+ significant strikes and put up a reasonable result.

I won’t have a lot of exposure to her but when I need to punt, I think Duben is OK and she has low-end secondary viability based on pacing of the fight, and lack of talent on either side.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Judice by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)n: Judice by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)