UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov (2/3/24)
MAIN CARD
Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Fight Odds: Imavov -167, Dolidze +144
Odds to Finish: -225
DraftKings Salaries: Imavov 8.6k, Dolidze 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
Eleven consecutive weeks of UFC action begins now, with a middleweight main event matchup between Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov.
This should be a decent fight in what I largely believe to be a striker vs. grappler matchup.
Dolidze suffered his second UFC loss in March, losing a decision to Marvin Vettori, though the fight was very competitive and many thought Dolidze pulled it off.
He was outlanded 106 to 71, but was generally the aggressor and had better moments with his hands than I expected. However, he also landed 0 of 1 takedowns attempted, which is a horrible sign and one of the main reasons why I was essentially fading him in that matchup to begin with.
Dolidze has a sambo background, and ADCC credentials, and he’s very clearly best as a submission grappler. He ripped Phil Hawes knee off prior to knocking him out, and then twisted up Jack Hermansson with a leg entanglement, that led to another TKO stoppage. He was losing very dominantly to Hermansson prior to that win.
But I don’t particularly trust any other skill set of Dolidze’s. He is not a great wrestler, and averages 1.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. That is a little bit deceiving though as he has only taken down three of his eight opponents.
He landed five takedowns against Staropoli and three against John Allan. Dolidze hasn’t landed one single takedown in any of his past four fights.
I’ve said it a million times guys but submission grappling specialists who do not wrestle well are not fighters you want to invest in long term. They’re consistently overrated by the markets.
Dolidze is far from a guarantee to land one single takedown and I’d probably set the line for about one takedown in this five-round matchup against Imavov. He also defends takedowns at 33 percent which is terrible, though, he’s clearly dangerous from his back so perhaps that’s not a major negative.
On the feet, Dolidze proved to me he’s more capable than I thought prior to the Vettori matchup. I now believe he has some round winning equity standing.
But he is not a great boxer. He lands 3 strikes per minute and absorbs 3. At distance, he’s landing 3.7 and absorbing 4.2 per minute. His career high in strikes is 71.
And he’s never been a cardio specialist. The longer the fight gets, the lower my expectation is for Dolidze’s results.
Overall, it paints a picture of a guy who’s dangerous, but not particularly trustworthy and not super likely to win rounds. If he can consistently get on top, then he’ll have a legit chance to win and win ITD. He can tangle up guys from his back too. But I’m waiting to see more wrestling consistency.
He also packs some power in his hands but isn’t a great distance striker and isn’t likely to be clearly winning rounds without damage. He’s even a potential defense/cardio liability.
Imavov is coming off an unlucky No Contest against Chris Curtis, whom he was dominating for the first round and a half before Curtis got a minor cut and wanted out of the fight.
He showed some pretty decent offensive wrestling in that fight too, landing three takedowns, which was a career high.
I still mostly consider Imavov a strong range striker, and sniper at distance. Imavov lands 4.55 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.76 per minute. He’s actually landing 5.5 while absorbing 5.8 at distance, but it’s a little misleading because Sean Strickland outlanded him 175 to 104 there.
It’s actually a little concerning if I’m honest. He didn’t exactly dominate Buckley or Shahbazyan at distance either.
Still, that is the area in which Imavov excels and I do consider him pretty sharp there. He’s not a big power threat, but he can consistently throw distance punches, and he does a decent job at attacking multiple levels.
Imavov isn’t a terrible grappler either and has had moments which make me believe it’s a legitimate path to victory for him now too. He outwrestled Buckley and TKOd Shahbazyan on the mat.
The one fight which gave him issues was the matchup against Hawes in 2021. He was taken down four times and controlled for 11 minutes. Hawes is a decent wrestler though and physical, so I don’t blame him too much for that.
Overall Imavov defends takedowns at 72 percent which is decent. He’s had good sprawls, like against Buckley. Obviously he’s capable offensively which gives me extra hope he won’t get dominated on the mat too often.
Still, Dolidze has proven submission ability, especially in the annoying, awkward sense that I wouldn’t call traditional. So if Imavov isn’t well trained with leg locks, for example, he could just get destroyed if the fight hits the mat once.
And while I think Imavov is good defensively, and Dolidze poor offensively as a wrestler, he’s shown he doesn’t need many opportunities to capitalize. If you told me Dolidze lands two takedowns, I’d definitely be nervous for Imavov.
However, I simply can’t rely on grapplers who can’t wrestle. Imavov is potentially just as likely, or more likely to land takedowns in this fight than Dolidze, and he’s shown to have decent ground-and-pound as well.
I wouldn’t expect a finish there but Dolidze can get tired, so Imavov winning rounds with wrestling is quite possible. He could also get himself in trouble there, so I wouldn’t say the expectation is that he wrestles immediately.
While the fight takes place on the feet, I have to favor Imavov. He’s better at longer distances, and he moves better. Dolidze probably has to march forward to box in the pocket and he might get pieced up entering range.
He’s shown to be tough too so I can’t expect a quick Imavov KO. Simply lasting five rounds and pushing forward, even if you’re getting out landed consistently, can still win you a fight. That’s literally what just happened with Du Plessis and Strickland (Strickland outlanded DDP 173 to 134 at distance and outlanded him to the head in all five rounds).
So in that sense, I can’t count Dolidze out either. His pressure is a good attribute, and this is middleweight so guys hit hard. Him randomly hurting Imavov or making rounds competitive is possible.
I do lean toward Imavov though. I like his volume and defense. Consistency and range striking. I lean toward him having more success in the championship rounds, and wouldn’t be shocked if he eventually hurt Dolidze via attrition.
Dolidze is absolutely a live underdog and has real finishing ability, but Imavov is the more consistent and well-rounded fighter and I think he deserves to be a moderate favorite over five rounds.
On DraftKings, I unfortunately don’t think this is a simple matchup to analyze, despite it being the main event.
I actually think there’s a legitimate reason to consider coming in underweight on this matchup.
That reason being, we may not see many takedowns. Dolidze may not try much, and he doesn’t project to have a ton of success. Imavov may be unwilling to risk wrestling if he’s got the lead at distance.
And at distance, neither guy spams volume. Dolidze hasn’t been knocked out before. Imavov hasn’t either.
Imavov actually only landed 123 sig. strikes in his last five round fight. Dolidze wouldn’t project for much more over five rounds. Essentially, there’s a pretty decent chance we get an extended, somewhat low-volume kickboxing fight.
In that case, Imavov may not clear 10x value at 8.6k. Of course, 1-2 takedowns from him would change the outcome entirely, as would a knockdown. But I don’t think those statistics come extremely often..
Also, this card isn’t filled with many big names. I would guess the average fan has heard of 1 other fighter in this 9k-8k range, that being Moicano. So even though there’s a large number of fights, we could possibly still see ownership condensed on Imavov.
If that’s the case, I do think a cautious approach makes sense. I like Imavov on the whole because it’s a decent matchup for him, and he has some wrestling upside, and finishing upside at +145 ITD. I do think he wins.
I will definitely mix him into tournaments because it’s an easy click. His upside is legitimately good, but again, the upside is mostly predicated on wrestling or a TKO, which are far from guaranteed outcomes.
So in large-field tournaments, it’s one reason to consider being cautious and leverage yourself against the field who probably comes in high on the fight as a whole.
Dolidze at 7.6k could be very popular. He’s a popular name, and this is a nice price. His upside is more straightforward.
Dolidze has scored 108 points or more in three of his six fights. Winning a five round fight, even by decision, probably comes with takedowns or damage. He’s +175 ITD. I would feel pretty comfortable that Dolidze would contend for the optimal lineup in a win.
That does make him a valuable DraftKings target, and it’s not impossible that he even comes in higher than Imavov in terms of ownership.
The fade was tough last time with Vettori because of this angle, and it would be a tough fade again. With a large portfolio, you’re clearly not fading him outright due to pure upside for the price.
But look, if he loses, he’s almost certainly not optimal. It’s going to kill off a larger percentage of the field. I’m tempted to pull the trigger and just continue to come in super light on Dolidze as a longterm fade.
You don’t have to do that though, mostly because of the variance in these types of fights. Even if I were to be totally correct on everything, Dolidze could still land 1-2 takedowns, and potentially just turn that into a win. Imavov isn’t a proven prospect, despite me thinking he has advantages here and probably wins.
With 13 fights on the slate, and ownership potentially condensed on Dolidze, I’ll be underweight to the field. He’s a great upside play for the price, but I don’t trust his skill set ultimately.
Fight Prediction: Imavov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober
Fight Odds: Moicano -181, Dober +155
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Moicano 8.4k, Dober 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am really intrigued by this matchup between Renato Moicano and Drew Dober. Both of these guys are solid fighters.
Moicano is a very skilled fighter. He is good at everything. He is a skilled striker and a technical offensive grappler.
Moicano’s grappling is quite good and he is a BJJ black belt. He lands 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and is very capable of passing guard and landing ground and pound, or locking in a submission.
Moicano has relied on his grappling a lot lately to get victories. His last five victories have come from submission via RNC.
Moicano is also a historically decent defensive grappler, and defends takedowns at 74 percent. His fight against RDA did expose his defensive wrestling though. He was taken down 5 times on 15 attempts by RDA and was controlled for 13:22, and beat up with ground and pound on the mat.
RDA is still a good wrestler and attempted 15 tds. That isn’t something a lot of guys can do. However, top tier wrestlers will surely give Moicano issues like RDA did.
I like Moicano as a striker. Moicano lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.07 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. Moicano is a pretty slick striker and when fights get extended, he is quite good.
He has a diverse striking arsenal. He has a good jab, straight punches, and excellent leg kicks. At his best, Moicano outstruck Calvin Kattar 115-41 at distance and completely butchered Kattar with leg kicks. It was by far Moicano’s best performance, especially from a striking perspective.
The issue with Moicano is his chin. Three of his last four losses have come by knockout. He got knocked out by Fiziev, Korean Zombie, and Aldo. He showed a lot of toughness against RDA by surviving all five rounds, but I will always consider Moicano getting randomly knocked out a realistic outcome.
Moicano will be taking on Drew Dober. Dober is a pretty solid fighter. He is decently well-rounded and always fights hard. His strength is probably his striking. He lands 4.58 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.46 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t incredible metrics. However, he has fought some good guys, is battle tested, and is definitely an above-average striker in this weight class.
Dober fights at a high pace on the feet. Dober has quick, straight punches and packs some decent power. Eight of his last 10 wins have actually come by knockout.
His other two wins came by decision where he landed 60 and 145 significant strikes, respectively. I like Dober on the feet personally. He has KO equity and has volume upside as well. He is also tough as nails and has only been knocked out twice in 36 professional fights. That is pretty impressive durability given the battles that Dober has been in.
I still kind of worry about Dober getting knocked out again though. He was just knocked out against Matt Frevola. Furthermore, both Riddell and McKinney hurt him in recent fights. Both of those guys are dangerous so it wasn’t an awful look or anything. However, I do think the fact that Dober is simply hittable is what concerns me.
Dober’s weakness is probably on the mat. He isn’t a terrible grappler. He lands 0.68 takedowns per 15 minutes and can take down weak grapplers. However, his offensive grappling isn’t going to be a reliable path to victory against good fighters in this weight class.
Dober defends takedowns at 56 percent. He has also been submitted four times in the UFC which is a concern. I do think Dober is at least competent defensively as a grappler though. He scrambles up from his back pretty well.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I slightly lean Moicano because he has more paths to victory with his grappling upside.
On the feet, I probably favor Dober based on his pace and durability. Dober could definitely knock Moicano out here, especially if Moicano doesn’t wrestle enough, which he honestly might not considering Moicano only attempts about 3 takedowns per fight. Moicano isn’t screwed standing though. He honestly could hurt Dober or maybe even win rounds. Moicano is probably the better defensive striker.
I think Moicano does have some grappling upside here though. I really like Moicano’s back takes, and if he gets a takedown and a body triangle, I think there is a real chance he finishes Dober. However, Dober isn’t awful defensively as a grappler, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he stopped a takedown here or obtained a get up there. So he could still give Moicano some resistance.
So I am pretty torn on the fight. I still think Moicano is who I have to lean towards though because he has the ability to win this fight standing or on the mat.
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On DraftKings, this is a decent mid-range fight to target, though I expect the majority of the public to lean with Moicano as the value.
He’s priced at 8.4k, but has taken action this week and is now -181 on the moneyline. Coming off another first-round win, while Dober recently lost in round one, I think Moicano will get love this week.
And I think he’s a decent option. Especially for his grappling equity. Dober has been submitted a bunch of times in the UFC so it’s definitely a path to victory for Moicano. He’s +120 to win ITD which is very good for this price tag.
I suppose the problem is that Moicano may not smash without takedowns and ground domination. Striking volume alone likely won’t get him there. I also think there’s risk of him losing, but that’s a separate issue.
For 8.4k, Moicano is a decent value, with grappling and finishing upside. He’ll be popular but I’ll probably aim to come in near the field with my exposure.
Dober does pique my interest at 7.8k, especially if he’ll be the leverage side. While the recent form favors Moicano, people are quick to forget what this line might have looked like only a few fights ago.
A couple years ago, Moicano was largely considered toast due to his poor chin. He’s been brutally knocked out a few times.
While Moicano is talented, I don’t think his chin issues are gone. And Dober hits extremely hard and will probably pursue Moicano aggressively. It’s quite possible that Dober’s most realistic path to victory is an early knockout.
Dober is also +160 to win ITD which is a very strong line for 7.8k. It’s a very tough matchup and he might just get grounded to a loss, but I do think Dober can win this fight standing and he has knockout equity too.
If the public isn’t super interested, I think this is a decent bounce back spot in tournaments that could provide leverage. I won’t be ultra-heavy here but you should include Dober in your player pool and it’s not a terrible idea to be overweight, depending on his ownership projection.
Fight Prediction: Moicano by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
Fight Odds: Brown -274, Salikhov +225
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Brown 9.1k, Salikhov 7.1k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Randy Brown’s had some setbacks in the UFC but is on a good run right now, winning 5 of his last 6 fights – he’s 10-5 in the UFC and 17-5 as a pro. Muslim Salikhov’s getting up there at 39 years old does appear to be slowing down a bit, despite a largely solid UFC run – he’s 6-3 in the promotion and 19-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Brown’s a ridiculously long guy for the division, standing 6’3” with a 78” reach. In that, he tends to fight long and from the outside, using a lot of lateral movement.
He’s shown to be higher output as well, landing 4.38 SLpM at 47%.
He’s got a good jab but can’t “always” fight behind it consistently, though he does kick well and utilizes good clinch knees and general body work.
Brown can find himself in pretty competitive fights but has fought some tough guys in there to boot, and still has a positive distance differential of +1.15/minute. He does have some sneaky power with 4 UFC knockdowns, and has hurt opponents in other fights as well.
Defensively, he only eats 3.3 SApM but defends at a measly 54%.
He’ll move well on the outside and can slip punches, but it’s been effective pressure that he has struggled with throughout his UFC career.
Brown has also been susceptible to leg kicks in the past and his durability has come into question as well – he got KO’d with massive hammer fists from Price on bottom and ate a big knee from Luque.
He was hurt twice by Williams and was obviously dropped against Maddalena – in his defense, all 4 of those guys are known perennial hitters.
Overall, I think Brown is a talented striker with speed, power, and good pacing, but has some flakey tendencies at times to give minutes and exchanges away.
Salikhov comes from a Wushu-Sanda background and has been given the nickname “The King of Kung Fu” as he’s won World Championships in the discipline.
Per his base, he likes to play the range game, blitz into the pocket with strikes and utilize a lot of kicks – similar to a karate style but with a tad less dancing around.
He’s shown some power components, as well as his hands and kicks which tend to come very quick – he’s finished 3 of 6 UFC wins via strikes.
However, he’s lower output, landing 3.37 SLpM at 51% — it’s just his style that leads to less volume which isn’t as much of a knock as it is for other fighters.
Contrary to popular belief, he’s outpaced 6 of his 9 UFC opponents because he only eats 2.91 SApM at 62%.
Despite generally suppressing volume well, he has gotten tagged a bit more in recent years with some explosive shots, and he just conceded an 86 SS performance against Dalby.
However, he was winning the 1st round there before he got caught with a head kick, and the distance strikes in that fight were very close.
Additionally, in his KO loss to Li, that was a really competitive fight prior to the finish.
Overall, despite Salikhov slowing down a tad and his durability faltering, he’s still a tricky guy to fight because he can slow fights down and you can’t let him get into a rhythm or he will pick you apart/catch you.
How it plays out: The stand up is interesting here as Brown will realize a 4” height and 8” reach edge, making him the biggest fighter Salikhov has fought to date. At the same time, Brown hasn’t fought many guys with the style of Salikhov. Both guys tend to also be more mid-range to outside based fighters who have primarily struggled with effective pressure. The kicks of Salikhov could give some issues to Brown but I also see the boxing giving bigger issues to Salikhov. Despite Brown getting caught here and there, I do trust his durability more than I do Salikhov’s at this point, and he is more consistent to fight at a higher pace.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Brown is a BJJ Brown Belt with okay wrestling when he goes to it. However, his metrics are underwhelming, landing 0.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 39%.
So he’s been able to mix in his wrestling into a handful of fights but his success has been somewhat limited and you can’t bank on a heavy wrestling attack from him.
Despite repping a 74% TDD mark, he’s actually struggled on his back at times and can get stuck there.
But if he’s able to guard up, he does have those long legs to threaten triangles and arm bars from bottom. This was on display in his fight against Alves where he was able to submit him – a BJJ Black Belt.
He club and subbed Oliveira as well, but was on the end of a club and sub against JDM. His control ratios are negative though as he can give away minutes on bottom in certain fights.
Overall, I’d say the ground is up and down for Brown, but he is a competent wrestler/grappler.
Salikhov has wrestled a bit more in recent fights but he’s traditionally not a volume wrestler, landing 1.31 TDs per 15 minutes at 40%.
When he decides to pursue, it’s usually either to break pressure or because he’s hurt – so he has capable entries but has struggled with ground control and hasn’t posed a submission threat.
Defensively, he stuffs at 73% which is good, but he also hasn’t faced a ton of TDAs over his UFC career. It is important to note that his 1st UFC loss was where he was outwrestled and eventually submitted.
That was also his debut though and I feel his TDD/defensive grappling has leveled up a lot since that fight.
However, we did see Dalby find a higher degree of ground success in the back half of their fight – Salikhov did show off his submission defense there though.
Overall, only 19% of Salikhov’s fight time has been spent grappling for or against, so you can largely anticipate the majority of his fights to be striking but there’s been pros and cons for him.
How it plays out: I don’t have a great gauge on the ground. Given size parity, I’d lean more to Salikhov being the more willing wrestler, but I do think he’s going to really struggle to take a guy the size of Brown down. But I’d also give a clearer jiu-jitsu advantage on the Brown side who could put Salikhov in some tricky front headlock spots if he’s shooting from too far out. Clinch grappling I feel favors Brown as well. But my general assumption is that we’ll probably see a primary striking affair.
This is a weird style fight, but I do come out on the Brown side as the more youthful/larger/athletic party who operates at a more consistent pace, who also has more finish equity. Brown’s still not a fighter I fully trust though as he’s not the most consistent guy in terms of full 15 minute performances, and Salikhov fights in a unique way. But Brown via Decision will be my pick.
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On DraftKings, Brown is expensive at 9.1k and that’s going to make him difficult for me to fit in personally.
The counter argument to mine is just that the price range itself is not strong, and so despite Brown not rating out immensely well, his chances are improved by the question marks of fighters surrounding him.
Brown definitely does have some KO upside, but he’ll likely need a big, early finish to contend with the optimal lineup, and I just don’t love the matchup for him to roster him at a high rate. Salikhov likes to play deep at distance, and doesn’t absorb a ton of strikes. Brown also has limited wrestling equity.
Salikhov is getting older though, and he’s been hurt recently. Brown is +195 to win ITD which is not a great number for this price tag. He fits into the semi-contrarian category for me, and it’s fine if you want a bit of exposure for the KO upside. I don’t expect to roster him at a high rate personally.
Salikhov at 7.1k is a fine dart, and I expect him to be low owned. He’s not my favorite punt of the group because he fights at a slow pace, and doesn’t throw much volume. I don’t particularly trust his wrestling.
Mostly, I’d be hoping Salikhov lands some crazy, spinning wheel kick KO to finish Brown early. That’s his best chance at the optimal lineup in my mind, though I guess he has some decision equity too.
Salikhov is +350 to win ITD so he rates out OK for this price tag. If you want to mix him in a little bit for salary savings, I don’t have a problem with that. I do prefer to pay up a bit when possible. Ultimately I won’t end up with much Salikhov, though I acknowledge his explosive striking game gives him a path to a big score.
Fight Prediction: Brown by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Viviane Araujo vs. Natalia Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -341, Araujo +272
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.5k, Araujo 6.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am really excited to see Natalia Silva back in the cage. I have been impressed with her first four UFC fights, and I think she is a solid prospect in this weight class. She will be getting a step up in competition when she fights UFC veteran Viviane Araujo this weekend.
Silva is best as a striker. You saw it on the regionals and in her UFC fights thus far. Silva lands 5.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.23 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 65 percent.
She does a very good job moving backward to control range and countering to land her kicks. She also likes to occasionally spring into range to wing punches in the pocket. She then likes to get back to her range on the outside and start landing kicks again.
Silva is fast and has decent pop for this division. She is one of the rare women fighters who can strike going backwards, and I think she can outland the majority of this division on the feet. She also seems to have good defense in general.
Silva also occasionally mixes in takedowns, mostly from the clinch, and she can float on top a bit. I don’t consider her offensive wrestling all that great and she only lands 0.68 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she is pretty physically strong and has decent upper body takedown technique. She can definitely land occasional takedowns against below-average competition.
Silva’s defensive wrestling, especially from the clinch, seems pretty strong. Her TDD overall held up against Tereza Bleda and Victoria Leonardo. She is currently defending takedowns at 92 percent. She also just seems to have a decent understanding of BJJ as well.
Silva will be taking on UFC veteran Viviane Araujo. Araujo is a bit of a freestyle fighter. She can strike a bit. However, she lands 4.34 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.19 which isn’t good. She has never really outlanded an actual good striker on the feet. The only people she has outlanded are Roxanne, De La Rosa, and Bernardo, which I thought was kind of crazy when I was researching this fight.
I still don’t think Araujo is an awful striker. She is a good athlete and can spring in and out of range, and can land decently hard. However, she just isn’t very technical and she tends to tire out down the stretch.
Araujo can grapple a bit though. She lands 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes. Her takedowns aren’t great, but she is physical and can bully her opponents to the mat, and get top position and hold it. She has good tdd at 77 percent. However, I don’t like Araujo’s get-up game when she is actually grounded.
As far as this matchup goes, Silva should have the edge on the feet. She just controls range so much better than Araujo. I also like her defense much more than Araujo’s as well. I generally think Silva will win this fight pretty clearly standing. Maybe Araujo can have some competitive striking exchanges here and there but I don’t think her defense will be on par to Silva’s.
Araujo’s best chance to win this fight is on the mat. I do think Araujo is probably the best grappler that Silva has fought thus far. So Araujo landing a takedown or two wouldn’t be shocking. However, Araujo only attempts 3 takedowns per 15 minutes and I just don’t think that will be enough against Silva, who already seems to have strong tdd. My guess is Silva minimizes the grappling enough and wins this fight standing.
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On DraftKings, Silva is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k, but this is a rare occasion where I don’t think the public will be excited to target her.
Despite many believing she’s an elite prospect, Silva hasn’t put up great DraftKings performances. Her four wins have scored 58, 109, 85 and 85 points, with the 109 score coming in a first-round knockout.
And 9.5k is just a lot to pay. Even if Silva can surpass a previous career high and put up 100 significant strikes, that would only score 70 points in a decision on DK. She’s only taken down one of her past four opponents and this isn’t an ideal matchup for Silva to score on the mat.
So really, I think Silva probably needs another knockout. The benefit I guess is that she’s faster than Araujo, with better cardio. Araujo has been hurt before. Silva landing some insane head kick is plausible.
But how tied to that exact outcome do you want to be at 9.5k? Silva is +240 to win ITD which isn’t strong for this price.
As much as I like her as a prospect, I don’t think I’ll be playing Silva on DraftKings this week. Even as a cash game option, Silva isn’t a must due to her potential slow pace.
With that said, it’s quite possible Silva is sub 20 percent owned this week. I just don’t see many people choosing to pay up for her often, on a large slate. If you want to mix her in as a contrarian option, that’s OK, but I think Silva has a tough path to reach a ceiling and she simply won’t be a priority for me.
Araujo at 6.7k does not interest me much either.
The reason to consider her would be that in theory, she could stay competitive on the feet, and she has grappling upside. She may be able to take Silva down, who was taken down by Tereza Bleda..
Araujo is a black belt and would have some control and submission upside on the mat, though it’s hard to say how much. Still, a win for Araujo could look like 2-3 takedowns, 5-10 minutes of control and 50 significant strikes.
That would score around 70 points, potentially. At 6.7k, that’s not terrible.
But this isn’t an easy matchup for Araujo. Silva won’t engage much in striking ranges where she’ll get hit, so I don’t think Araujo will land many total strikes. Wrestling is possible but she’ll need to dominate rounds to win, which is a tough outcome.
For 6.7k, sure you can consider a small amount of Araujo, especially if you’re already fading Silva. She’s not a horrible floor-based punt. But she’s a big underdog at +270 and has a very questionable ceiling with a +900 ITD line.
With a limited number of lineups, I will be extremely light on Araujo and I think there are several better underdogs to target for points and win equity.
Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Makhmud Muradov
Fight Odds: Khizriev -144, Muradov +125
Odds to Finish: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Khizriev 8.8k, Muradov 7.4k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Undefeated Russian fighter Aliaskhab Khizriev will finally make his UFC return after being victorious in his UFC debut against Denis Tiuliulin in March of 2022.
Khizriev looked good on the Contender Series, winning quickly by landing a takedown and popping in a RNC. Then he looked okay but not great vs Tiuliulin. He traded with Tiuliulin in competitive striking exchanges and then ended up landing a takedown and popping in a RNC in round 2.
If you watch Khizriev on the regionals, you can see more of the same as on the Contender Series and his UFC debut. Khizriev is a wrestler and he looks to be a pretty decent one. I consider his takedowns pretty good, and I definitely think he can win fights at this level with his wrestling.
Khizriev has a good single and double leg. He has a variety of different takedowns. He also has some pretty good top control and can land ground and pound as well.
Khizriev also seems like an okay offensive submission grappler. I don’t consider him a super dangerous submission grappler. However, he can threaten with RNCs and guillotines and has a few submissions in his career.
I still don’t think Khizriev looks like a dominant wrestler though, and he has fought no good defensive wrestlers in his career. His quality of competition has been comically poor and he is not the most athletic guy in the world. So I do have some concerns with him.
Standing from the southpaw stance, Khizriev is also an okay striker. I don’t consider it his strength. However, he can pressure on the feet, land some low kicks and then come over the top with his hands. He uses his striking mostly to set up his wrestling though, and I do think good strikers could take advantage of him.
I do think Khizriev looked a little labored in his most recent decision win against Yasubey Enomoto. He tired a little bit later in the fight. However, it wasn’t awful and he was still able to land takedowns and ground and pound in round 3. The fight was also in 2017 so who knows how his cardio looks now in an extended fight. I still think his cardio looked okay against Tiuliulin. I just wanted to point it out though and perhaps his cardio is a weakness because it is a bit of an unknown at this point.
Khizriev will be taking on UFC veteran Makhmud Muradov. Muradov is basically a freestyle fighter who will strike and grapple a bit.
Muradov lands 4.21 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 2.56 in return. He defends strikes at 61 percent. Those are good metrics. He is also pretty long with a 6’2” frame and he controls range well. He has power and has won two UFC fights via knockout.
I was very impressed with his performance against Andrew Sanchez. Sanchez is a decent fighter and Muradov absolutely worked him for the entire fight before obtaining a third round knockout.
Muradov does have some offensive wrestling in his game as well and lands 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes. He actually landed 13 takedowns in his most recent win against Bryan Barberena which was nice to see.
Defensively as a grappler, Muradov isn’t bad. He defends takedowns at 77 percent, and I consider his first layer tdd pretty strong.
Muradov did get taken down and submitted by Gerald Meerschaert. However, that fight was chaotic, and I honestly think Muradov was hurt and tired more than anything before being taken down and submitted in that fight. Muradov’s cardio has honestly been fine other than that.
Muradov also lost a competitive fight against Caio Borralho and was taken down and controlled a bit. However, Borralho is a good grappler, and Muradov did defend well at times.
Muradov actually reversed Borralho twice and landed 2 takedowns to Borralho’s 1 takedown. He also controlled Borralho on the mat nearly as long as Borralho controlled him. It really wasn’t a bad showing for Muradov and Borralho has made other good fighters look way worse.
I still do think good grapplers can hold Muradov down, but I don’t think he is a bad defensive wrestler and grappler by any means.
That’s why I am actually leaning towards Muradov for the upset in this matchup. I really don’t know how good Khizriev is. Maybe Khizriev can just take Muradov down and control him or submit him at some point. I do think it is possible considering we saw Meerschaert have grappling success against Muradov.
However, this is a massive step up in competition for Khizriev and my gut tells me that Muradov could give Khizriev issues. He honestly could just style on him.
On the feet, I have to favor Muradov. He is so much more proven as a striker than Khizriev. Muradov is also just so much bigger and more athletic. Muradov has a 5 inch height advantage here.
Furthermore, I am not so sure Khizriev just dominates with wrestling here. I think Muradov has decent tdd, and it wouldn’t even be that shocking if Muradov landed takedowns of his own either.
This is a blind fight, and maybe I am wrong and Khizriev turns out to be the truth. However, I certainly have more trust in Muradov’s experience and his striking. It also wouldn’t be all that shocking if Muradov had a cardio advantage and could handle the wrestling of Khizriev. So I am going to go with the more proven fighter in Muradov to get the upset this weekend.
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On DraftKings, Muradov is actually a considerable value now, with a +122 moneyline, priced at 7.4k.
I’ve heard some love thrown Muradov’s way this week too, so it’s possible he ends up moderately owned, given the discount.
I don’t mind Muradov, but I guess it’s more for discounting purposes than anything else. It’s still not an easy matchup.
Yes, you can dismiss certain aspects about his losses to Borralho and Meerschaert but here’s another point of view. Meerschaert is a terrible wrestler, who took him down and subbed him. Borralho easily advanced to mount every time he got on top.
The Barberena win means nothing to me in terms of Muradov’s grappling abilities, as Barberena never defends any takedowns.
Khizriev is actually a good wrestler, and a competent submission grappler. It simply wouldn’t be surprising to see him land takedowns, control Muradov, and maybe even lock up a submission.
Still, there are aspects in Khizriev’s game that are potential unknowns, and Muradov has fought decent competition where Khizriev really has not.
For 7.4k, it’s not a major risk to plug him in and take some chances. He’s only +355 to win ITD and won’t project super well though. There’s no guarantee of wrestling, or striking volume. You are mostly hoping for a knockout or for Khizriev to gas out and Muradov to drown him with offense late.
If he projects to be super popular, I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable matching the field. But given the discount, Muradov is fine. He has decent win equity compared to the surrounding options. He is a decent striker and might have some KO upside.
Khizriev at 8.8k is a boom or bust grappling option and someone I may have interest in, if his negative value is going to affect his ownership.
At the end of the day, he’s shown to be a grappling dependent fighter on the regionals who will pursue that path. He finishes most fights. He’s now facing an opponent who’s been taken down and submitted in the UFC.
While his win equity isn’t great compared to other options around him, meaning there is outright risk of him losing, I do think Khizriev has a strong ceiling if he does win. He fights in an aggressive style that can score points. He’s also +125 to win ITD.
I’m guessing he won’t be totally overlooked because this top range is sketchy this week. But given the Muradov line value, it’s possible Khizriev is actually a leverage target.
You don’t have to dump your bankroll on the guy but 8.8k isn’t a terrible price to pay for his style of fighting. I’m willing to bite on the potential upside of his style and will have moderate ownership.
Fight Prediction: Imavov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Gilbert Urbina vs. Charles Radtke
Fight Odds: Urbina -211, Radtke +178
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Urbina 9k, Radtke 7.2k
Weight Class: 170
My guy “Chuck Buffalo”, otherwise known as Charles Radtke is back in action Saturday against Gilbert Urbina in what should be a hectic fight for as long as it lasts.
I was pretty big on Radtke in his UFC debut against Blood Diamond, which he won by decision before insulting the Australian crowd on the mic. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a very impressive performance and was certainly disappointing from a DK perspective.
I even said it in the breakdown of that fight. I wrote that Radtke is “a black belt in jiu-jitsu and a BJJ coach, but from what I can tell, he primarily wants to box. The perfect recipe for me to lose a bunch of money.”
Without further ado, Radtke boxed his way to a win against Blood Diamond, the kickboxer with no grappling skills. To be fair, he did attempt a few takedowns but had very limited success with them and his shots down the stretch were pretty ugly.
I suppose that’s why the public is super down on him in this matchup against Urbina. He didn’t look special. He barely won. And Urbina is coming off a destruction performance over Louis Cosce.
Urbina wasn’t even favored in that fight until very late in the week – he wasn’t considered a great prospect and has some major red flags in his game, and additionally was coming off a multi-year layoff.
Urbina is now 7-2 professionally with two wins by TKO and two wins by submission. He’s likely best as a grappler, and tends to want to take his opponents down, lock up a RNC or grind them out.
Urbina originally came from TUF, where he won his first fight with a super quick takedown and RNC, though to be fair it came against Micheal Gillmore who is awful.
Then he fought Tresean Gore and was knocked out in round two. That fight was weird because Urbina had some length advantages but every time Gore hit him, he got dropped, which was like three times. I don’t think Urbina is a terrible striker but I worry about his durability.
Then he fought Bryan Battle for the TUF crown and was submitted in the second round. He took Battle down early in that fight and had a great round one, but was taken down and dominated in round two.
It’s a major fear of mine as Urbina smashing Cosce early doesn’t necessarily tell me he can suddenly fight well in extended matchups.
The way I see it, Urbina is an aggressive grappler, who’s best chance at success will come from early takedowns, control, and a finish. His pure aggression alone will give him a chance against questionable defensive grapplers.
His distance striking looked better against Cosce too and perhaps a long layoff means he’s improved overall. Urbina eventually kicked Cosce in the body in the second round which led to the stoppage. I am nervous though because the second round had no takedowns up until that point and it’s possible that Urbina was already starting to fade a bit.
This matchup should be fun, and hectic, like I noted at the start, but I’m definitely not comfortable with either fighter and I wouldn’t say Urbina is particularly trustworthy at a -200 betting line.
Although Radtke may not choose to wrestle aggressively, or may fail if he tries, he’s still a BJJ black belt and a competent submission grappler. He has wins on the regional scene in which his opponent pursued a grappling game, and he was able to reverse position and dominate.
I don’t feel super confident that Urbina will quickly dispose of Radtke on the mat, and it may even get him in trouble in the latter half of the fight.
Standing, it’s possible Radtke is superior. I quite like his boxing skills and he beat Diamond because he was able to outstrike him and hurt him at distance, which is probably an aspect that’s being overlooked here.
Urbina will be much taller by six inches, and he’ll have a few extra inches as well. This size advantage, coupled with aggression in all aspects of the game, may still lead him to success and a finish.
However, Radtke is a capable boxer, and we’ve seen Urbina hurt badly before. We’ve seen Urbina gas out before. We’ve seen Urbina get taken down and submitted before.
I see no reason why Radtke can’t win this fight if he can withstand an early onslaught. He’s not trustworthy, but Urbina’s game has been breakable up until this point and his last opponent Cosce offered no real resistance.
I think Radtke is a superior submission grappler and striker to Cosce, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was able to turn the momentum and find a finish himself.
On DraftKings, the pricing of this matchup is a bit annoying as Urbina is all the way up at 9k.
For a fighter who would have been cut if he’d lost his last bout, this definitely feels like a risk.
However, there’s a strong argument to make that in a win, Urbina has a good chance at flashing a ceiling score, in which case he’s still very viable for tournaments. He’s +120 to win ITD which is decent, and he may wrestle aggressively from the start.
While I’m not confident he wins and I think this DK price is a little expensive, it seems smart to have exposure to Urbina and this matchup. I generally like to spread my exposure out among the top tier but Urbina is absolutely in that mix for pure finishing upside in a high-paced bout.
Radtke does interest me at 7.2k, and I’m hoping the public won’t be excited to play him.
Frankly, he doesn’t need to be prioritized and he might just end up disappointing us once again. But the simple fact that he can grapple, and box, against an opponent who lacks defense and cardio, in what should be a high-paced fight, does pique my interest.
This also saves a significant amount of salary, so it mitigates the risk a little bit.
Radtke does not have a strong floor, but he’s possibly being undervalued and is +275 to win ITD. For 7.2k, I think he’s a fine mix-in for tournaments and I wouldn’t mind being above the market on this fight as a whole.
Fight Prediction: Imavov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Molly McCann vs. Diana Belbita
Fight Odds: McCann -246, Belbita +205
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: McCann 9.3k, Belbita 6.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am not really sure what warranted this rematch but that is exactly what we will get when Molly McCann squares off against Diana Belbita this weekend.
The first time these two fought, McCann won a pretty clean decision. The striking was actually pretty competitive and McCann outlanded Belbita 113-98 in significant strikes. Belbita had striking success early but McCann pulled away by landing 5 takedowns and having a better gas tank. McCann had some dominant positions on the mat.
I actually don’t mind McCann as a fighter, depending on her opponent. She has lost most of her fights by getting outgrappled. Good grapplers will definitely always give McCann issues and I will never have confidence in her in those spots. However, McCann can put up a lot of offense if she doesn’t have to deal with grapplers.
McCann is best as a boxer. She lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.90 in return. She defends strikes at 63 percent. I consider her a solid boxer. She has good awareness in the pocket. She also can pressure opponents and land decently hard for a strawweight. She is capable of landing a lot of volume as well.
McCann can also land takedowns against weak grapplers just like she did against Belbita in their first fight. She lands 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 5 takedowns per fight. She isn’t a great grappler but she can take advantage of weak grapplers on the mat and rough them up a bit.
McCann will be taking on Diana Belbita. Belbita is 2-4 in the UFC, mostly fighting bad competition. I think Belbita is a below-average fighter but she is okay at a couple of things.
I would mostly characterize Belbita as a striker. She lands 6.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.43 in return. She isn’t great on the feet but she tries hard and is pretty aggressive. She isn’t very technical and she has very wide punches that I don’t like. However, she is tough and will throw hard. I think she hits somewhat hard for a WMMA fighter. She can continue to compete on the feet in this division.
Belbita isn’t a very good grappler though. She lands 0.97 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t much of an offensive grappling threat.
Furthermore, I don’t like Belbita’s defensive wrestling. She defends takedowns at 69 percent which is okay but it has come against low-level competition. She is simply a candidate to be taken down and controlled.
Belbita also just has awful wins. She has two wins in the UFC against Hannah Goldy and Maria Oliveira who aren’t UFC level.
As far as this matchup goes, I honestly think this can play out similarly to the first fight.
On the feet, I do think they will exchange competitively early. However, I still think McCann is a better boxer on the feet and certainly has better cardio. Even if this stays standing for 15 minutes, I would slightly to moderately favor McCann.
McCann is also a better grappler here. Belbita has no top game whatsoever and I don’t think she can hold McCann down at all. I do think McCann is at least capable of landing a couple of takedowns here and there, and it could lead to a dominant round.
So I have to go with McCann here. She is a more technical boxer, has better cardio, and has a bit more grappling upside as well. Belbita’s best chance of winning is to win a very competitive striking decision which I will pick against.
—
On DraftKings, this is an interesting position because McCann is very expensive at 9.3k, and the top tier is very shaky this week.
McCann is also coming off two first-round submission losses, so I expect the public to be very hesitant to play her at this price. And honestly I understand why.
But, as we’ve talked about in the past, McCann typically scores very well in wins. She’s put up 111, 110, 93, 109, 85 and 91 DK points in wins, with the latter four coming by decision.
McCann is +225 to win ITD here and I wouldn’t expect a finish. So you’re betting on activity over 15 minutes, which is a risk.
Typically, I wouldn’t get too excited by this spot but I can’t help but wonder if it’s time to jump back on McCann against Belbita. Perhaps it’s too simple, but McCann landed 113 sig. strikes and five takedowns against Belbita last time.
I would expect another high paced fight here, with a high floor of strikes landed. More importantly, McCann actually has wrestling upside.
Belbita may have improved since the first fight in 2019 but I doubt by much. She got taken down twice by Maria Oliveira in June, and her TDD looked horrendous. Go watch it. She just tipped over. Oliveira is awful and was cut after that.
So, although there’s no guarantee here, I do think McCann could land a few takedowns, and that could be the difference between an 80 point score and a 100 point score. I’m pretty confident in her floor in a win too.
At 9.3k, you certainly don’t have to prioritize McCann, but I don’t think she should be a fade either. I’d rather play her than Silva to start, and her floor is likely the best of the top group. All things considered, a solid secondary target with activity based upside in a decent matchup.
Belbita at 6.9k is obviously cheap, and not a bad punt option for her floor and activity potential.
I have a feeling she may be popular too, comparatively. People may like to save salary and may want to continue to pick on McCann, who is on a losing streak.
Belbita would have scored 78 points had she beaten McCann the first time. While I don’t think she is the better grappler, landing 1-2 takedowns is very possible, as is 100 strikes. She could realistically reach the mid 80s, or potentially even 90 points in a decision.
That does make her valuable at this price. In a fight that’s -250 to go the distance, Belbita is an easy punt for cash games in my opinion.
For tournaments, you can make the argument that she’ll be too popular for what she’s worth – a +218 underdog with a +900 ITD line. It may make sense to prioritize finishers in the low 7k and 6k range, rather than Belbita.
But I can’t blame you for using Belbita as a solid secondary option. This fight could reasonably be competitive, and high-paced. I’m mildly concerned about ownership but there’s enough of a floor/ceiling combo here to consider Belbita a decent secondary option.
Fight Prediction: McCann by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Azat Maksum vs. Charles Johnson
Fight Odds: Maksum -228, Johnson +191
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Maksum 8.9k, Johnson 7.3k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a flyweight matchup between the undefeated Azat Maksum and the battle-tested Charles Johnson. Let’s dive in.
Charles Johnson seems like a staple of the UFC at this point. The American prospect has now had 6 matchups in the UFC since 2022, and most of them have ended similarly.
Although Johnson is a good striker, the glaring red flag in his style is his lack of TDD, and that has been put to the test as each one of his UFC opponents have taken him down. Most notably, he was taken down 11 times by Cody Durden and 12 times by Mokaev, showing that dominant wrestlers are able to have their way with him.
Although this is a negative, I will give him his flowers as he does have solid submission defense, having survived to decision in all his UFC losses.
Johnson is a pretty simple fighter to break down. He has incredible cardio and durability, and will be in this fight for as long as it lasts. But considering his skilled Muay Thai and lack of a ground game, most opponents tend to take him down and try to score points with the judges there.
Johnson has the cardio and get-up game to make his opponents work for it, but he has been controlled too much to be trusted against ground fighters. On the feet though, he is talented. He averages 4.34 strikes landed per minute at a 55% accuracy, and has the cardio to continue to throw late into round 3. Although not the best one-shot power power, Johnson is able to break people and has 5 wins by KO.
In all, he is a talented striker with solid cardio and volume to win extended striking affairs, although his largest red flag lives with his poor TDD and ability to be controlled on the mat.
Azat Maksum makes his second walk to the UFC Octagon following a narrow decision victory over UFC vet Tyson Nam in July of last year. Although still getting the nod, a lot was expected of Maksum as a large favorite, and fans were left wanting more against an aging veteran like Nam.
He was able to land a couple takedowns but couldn’t establish too much control. He still did get the win but it might’ve dampened the highly anticipated debut of this undefeated prospect.
On the regionals, he was able to display a good, well-rounded skill set, as he racked up 17 wins across promotions like BRAVE FC and Octagon. He has his wins split between 5 KO’s, 6 SUBs and 5 DECs, showing how well versed he can be in all areas.
On the feet, I do think he is technically sound but there is still lots to be desired. Although technical, he lacks combinations and volume, often just throwing straight shots individually.
He was outvolumed in his debut because of this, but I do think the fundamental skillset is there. On the mat, I think his grappling is his best attribute. He sets up his shots well, and on the ground, Maksum has good scrambling ability and BJJ skills.
I do think his control can be worked on but he is competent enough to set up his shots and get his opponents to the mat when that is his intention.
Defensively, there isn’t much to pick on. He has faced a lower level of competition but seems to be pretty well-rounded with what’s coming back his way. His cardio and durability have held up so far and there aren’t too many red flags on tape. I do wish he threw more volume and was able to establish more control on the mat, but aside from that, he is a talented, well-rounded prospect who has skills in all areas but will be primarily looking to take it to the mat, adding to his undefeated record.
Overall, this is another binary Charles Johnson fight. A guy who cannot stuff a takedown to save his life against a guy who has a solid wrestling pedigree. A striker vs grappler matchup, a tale as old as time.
Aside from all the conjecture I’m throwing out here, I think there may be more layers to this than I am leading on. As seen in all 4 of Johnson’s UFC level losses, he can be taken down. In fact, in those 4 losses he was taken down a combined 29 times!
Although Johnson may be the superior striker here, he doesn’t have the TDD or ability to win minutes against solid wrestlers. Maksum may have disappointed in his debut but we know he is a solid, well-rounded prospect with good wrestling attributes and the ability to get this to the mat.
Although he doesn’t have the same volume as Johnson, he can compete in the striking and the discrepancy standing is much less than on the mat. I do think Maksum is the more well-rounded of the two and should be able to utilize his wrestling to seal rounds and control Johnson to a decision.
Until I see Johnson able to stuff a takedown, stay off the fence or even land one shot blows to steal rounds, I don’t think his style is enough to bank rounds against those who have such a clear path on the mat against him. Give me Maksum to remain undefeated.
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On DraftKings, Maksum is the more obvious target of the two given his wrestling ability, though I’m unsure of his fantasy upside.
He’s coming off a win which only scored 59 points.. And was only able to land takedowns on 2 of 11 attempts.
I suppose the positive is in the number of attempts. I would be much more worried if he only shot two takedowns. If he continues to wrestle at a high rate, Maksum will carry a moderate grappling floor which will give him win equity in most matchups.
Against Johnson, it’s hard not to picture him getting more takedowns, earning control, and winning rounds. Johnson will make him work for it though, and that’s the tough part.
While giving up big takedown numbers is scary, Durden and Mokaev were able to earn so many because Johnson kept scrambling up to his feet, while defending submissions. And I guess I’m not 100 percent convinced Maksum will shoot as aggressively as those guys.
Still, the point is that Maksum projects to land multiple takedowns here, which is also a recipe to score well. But 8.9k is an expensive price tag, especially for a guy who is only +275 to win ITD.
I’m getting a little nervous tbh about his fantasy upside at this price tag. The whole top range is risky though, so taking chances on wrestlers makes sense. But I do think there’s a world in which Maksum lands a few takedowns, comfortably wins and only scores 80-90 points. Putting up 110+ feels more unlikely to me.
Because of that, I may not end up super heavy on Maksum. I’m not really looking to take a major underweight stand against the field, but this also isn’t my favorite spot to be overweight on.
Johnson at 7.3k isn’t an exciting option, given the fact that he’ll likely spend time on his back and will be reliant on significant strikes. It’s the same old story.
Johnson is +550 to win ITD and doesn’t appear to have a ton of knockout potential in this matchup. Nor does he have much wrestling equity.
I guess if he does win, it’s possible he hurts Maksum. But a weird, competitive, split-decision based on some striking volume seems more likely. And that wouldn’t score much.
Johnson most likely falls around 80 points if he wins, but there’s potential for less. It might not be a horrible result for 7.3k.. But it would be dependent on a very small number of other dogs also winning.
With a limited number of lineups, I probably won’t take the risk too often. If you wanna save salary, get a lower owned guy who might carry leverage, then I can get behind that argument on a small percent of constructions. But Johnson doesn’t stand out as a great DK option and I’ll mostly look elsewhere.
Fight Prediction: Maksum by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Gorimbo -246, Rodriguez +205
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Gorimbo 9.2k, Rodriguez 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a clash between two fighters who always bring the action. The surging Themba Gorimbo takes on Pete Rodriguez in what is bound to be an exciting matchup for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.
Themba Gorimbo makes his third trip to the Octagon this weekend following some newfound internet fame. Gorimbo is the guy who went viral last year for having Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson gift him a new home.
See, Themba just moved here from Africa and was living out of his gym to follow his dream. This captured the hearts of many (including the rock) and is now someone who has some extra eyes on him this weekend. Gorimbo is now 1-1 inside the UFC after defeating Takashi Sato in May of last year, where he was able to win a decision, displaying his grappling and even improved striking, dropping and almost finishing Sato in round 2.
Although he wasn’t able to get the finish, the Zimbabwe native is an EFC alum where he has fought a weaker level of competition but disposed of them accordingly. He is a primary grappler with a 64% finish rate and 6/11 wins coming by way of submission.
Averaging 3.47 TDs per 15 minutes on 50% accuracy, he is super aggressive, looking to take it down to the mat. Down there, he is eager to get to his positions.
Although strong and able to lock up submissions, he can also be overzealous and lose position because of his aggressiveness. On the feet, he is still green and has some improvements to make. At 6’1 and with 77” of reach, he does have a solid frame to work from range, but instead he looks to get it to the mat as quickly as possible.
We have seen him KO’d before so we know he is susceptible on the feet, but he is typically good at taking down his opponents early. We’ve also seen some questions about his cardio, but with his aggressive style, it is understandable and he is still 4-1 to the decision in his career.
Overall, Themba is a budding star who will look to get this fight to the mat early and often. With solid wrestling and BJJ, he is super aggressive but sometimes loses position because of it. I would like to see him shore up his cardio and minute winning ability but do think he has an overall solid skill set for some UFC success.
Pete Rodriguez certainly has had an interesting journey in the UFC so far. From making his debut against the top of the division in Jack Della Maddelena, to being rewarded by being gifted a fight against the 1-2 Mike Jackson, he has had some ups and downs.
The Arizona native is now 5-1 in his professional career and although he is still green for experience, his record is quite impressive. Pete has 6 fights, all 6 have ended in the first round, via KO. That’s right. 6/6 first round KO’s, win or lose.
Luckily for him, he is 5-1 so has only been KO’d in RD1 once, which was by Jack della Maddelena, a forgivable loss.
Offensively, you can immediately see why he has so many early finishes. He is extremely powerful and quick with his hands. With superb finishing instinct, although he has fought a low level of competition, has disposed of them accordingly.
Defensively, he does seem tough. He took a beating from JDM but managed to stay in it against a truly high-level striker. I do think his striking defense can improve but the toughness is there.
The question mark for Pete is his ground game. We have not seen him on the mat in a few years now, although he was taken down and controlled on the amateur scene. Despite that being a long time ago, it was not a good look so we hope he has made some improvements. Although still in question, I think he will have made some changes in that department while working at the MMA Lab, although there is no doubt he will look to keep it standing.
Another big question for Pete is the cardio. With all of his fights ending in round 1, we have yet to see him extended and we don’t know how he reacts when dragged into deep waters. That is something we will have to learn at some point, but now, he is a super powerful KO threat on the feet early on with lots of questions regarding his cardio and ground game that will have to be answered before being fully trusted at this level.
At the end of the day I truly think this is going to be a fun fight. Both fighters have their flaws and I think they’re far from perfect. But they are both offensive oriented in different aspects of MMA and their strengths play into one another’s weaknesses.
With the feel good story surrounding Themba, I think they gave him a reasonable matchup here to allow the friend of the Rock to get his hand raised. Gun to my head, I will pick Gorimbo, but I do think this line is incredibly wide.
Although persistent on the mat, Themba is hittable on the feet and very reckless in transition. He fights at a high pace and this allows him to lose position, be hit and even drain his cardio.
I think that he is largely predicated on early wrestling success and against someone who can provide resistance, it might be shaky waters later on. But in this matchup here, there are so many unknowns around Pete, that I’m not completely convinced he’s the one to take advantage of it.
He has never been out of round 1 so his cardio is in question, but we have also not seen him off his back in years, so it is hard to envision how he is going to do with Themba from top position.
On the feet, I do think Pete can have success. He has really fast hands and good finishing instinct, making him the better striker of the two here. I think he is also live for a finish on the feet as I do respect his power.
But with the early wrestling and continuous pressure from Themba, I think his chances to land that ending blow will be limited. Give me Themba to wear on the untested cardio of Pete but I think this matchup is real shaky the longer it remains on the feet.
—
On DraftKings, Gorimbo is probably my favorite fighter in the top tier at 9.2k and I expect he could be popular.
To be fair, I liked Gorimbo coming off the regional scene as an aggressive wrestler. He had a tough debut against AJ Fletcher but still showed some promise. And I liked his hard-working nature against Sato.
He’s an easy guy to root for, which means I’m probably biased here. But it’s also why the UFC is giving him Pete Rodriguez, who was submitted on the amateur scene only a few years ago and has not been out of round one.
Is Gorimbo perfect? Definitely not. But he should be the better wrestler here against an opponent who is mostly dependent on winning by KO in round one. There is a somewhat likely chance that Gorimbo demolishes Rodriguez and finds a finish, if he can survive the first few minutes.
Because of that, I will chase the upside on Gorimbo. He’s -130 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate. He can attempt takedowns at a high rate. And he has a very clear path to a finish in the matchup.
There’s risk in the fact that Gorimbo is still developing as a prospect, and his public ownership is something to consider, but I think he’s a great DK play this week.
Rodriguez is priced at 7k and is just going to be a boom or bust, leverage punt.
Honestly, I don’t think he’s all that great even as a striker. The guy has literally fought for eight minutes as a professional fighter. I’m really not convinced he’s a major KO threat, though, just based on willingness to throw in high-variance exchanges, Rodriguez could land something with damage.
It’s probably safe to get a little bit of exposure to Rodriguez and protect yourself, especially if you are high on Gorimbo.
He’s +225 to win ITD which is quite good, and his most realistic chance to win is by early KO. So we’d be getting a 100 point score at a low ownership while killing off a big percentage of the field, if Rodriguez wins.
It’s worth a look in tournaments for sure but ultimately Rodriguez is a very limited fighter with a very limited path to victory. I wouldn’t rely too much on him here personally.
Fight Prediction: Gorimbo by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
JeongYeong Lee vs. Blake Bilder
Fight Odds: Lee -144, Bilder +125
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Lee 8.3k, Bilder 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Blake Bilder is hoping to rebound after a disappointing loss to Kyle Nelson a few months back.
Bilder fought Shane Young in his UFC debut and it was a decent performance. He basically outstruck Young over the course of 3 rounds and landed 126 of 206 total strikes attempted. He landed 1 of 7 takedowns attempted. I liked that Bilder actually generated and attempted offense in that fight. He also attempted 101 total strikes in round 3 which showed good cardio.
Bilder showed decent striking in that fight. He used good footwork and lateral movement to avoid the power shots of Young. Bilder then fought Kyle Nelson and looked terrible. He was outlanded 59-45 in significant strikes, didn’t show a lot of volume and got hurt at times.
Bilder also submitted his opponent in his Contender Series fight early with a RNC. There isn’t a ton of regional tape of Bilder but he does look to grapple at times and has won by submission often. I am not convinced he is a great BJJ player though and his takedowns do not look strong.
Bilder will be taking on JeongYeong Lee. Lee is a Korean fighter who is 10-1 professionally. He won his first two Road to UFC fights early by quick armbar and knockout. He then won his UFC debut to become the Road to UFC champion. He won a close decision in that fight. He landed the bigger shots but he was taken down 5 times on 21 attempts and was controlled a bit.
Lee is mostly a striker, and more specifically, a pressure striker. I like some of his raw physical abilities. He is a quick strong kid who is dangerous on the feet. He has power and is definitely capable of knocking people out in this division. His best strikes are his rear low kick and his jab. He has pretty fast hands overall and controls distance well.
However, Lee just seems raw. Many of his fights have ended early. He won by decision in 2018 in a fight where I thought he looked okay. His cardio held up and he showcased his competent striking. He still was hit in that fight plenty though. I have also just seen him taken down before, and I am not too sold on his defensive wrestling. It looks okay, especially early in fights but I am not entirely sold at all.
For now, I will assume Lee has realistic knockout upside as well as striking based decision upside. He may end up turning into a decent fighter honestly. I still have concerns overall in his quality of competition, cardio, and defensive wrestling.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I lean Lee simply because I don’t think Bilder is a good wrestler. Bilder is currently landing takedowns at a 10 percent rate which is awful. My guess is Lee can defend the grappling to a degree.
If we get a striking fight, I think Lee is much more dangerous. He is raw so Bilder could maybe compete numerically and land at times, but I just like Lee’s athleticism and power more. He will likely land bigger shots than Bilder.
So I am going to go with Lee here. I think he has enough athleticism to minimize the wrestling of Bilder and land some big shots standing. He is raw so Bilder may just be able to compete standing and land some takedowns here and there. However, I just don’t have enough faith in Bilder’s wrestling so the pick is Lee.
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On DraftKings, this is a rough mid-range fight that potentially may be overlooked.
Lee is now the favorite and is priced at 8.3k, but it will take a leap of faith to roster him. He’s coming off a win which scored 50 points. Yes, that’s right, 50 points.
Lee was not able to get off on his striking and was clinched and wrestled the entire time by his opponent Yi Zha. Yes, that’s right, Yi Zha.
So, what really is his upside? On paper it is an early knockout, but it’s just tough to know how successful Lee will be considering he could barely get past the clinch game of Zha.
Bilder is coming off a pretty ugly loss to Nelson, so I think people will be willing to take the risk on Lee. I just think we have to assume Lee is mostly dependent on an early KO, which is not the easiest outcome in the world to achieve.
Lee is +145 to win, which is good. He’s certainly aggressive and looks powerful. I don’t mind going back to the well on Lee. It will be tough for me to take a major position on him though given the questionable volume and competition.
Bilder at 7.9k interests me a little bit because we have seen him top 100 strikes landed, and he is a BJJ black belt. Perhaps we’re undervaluing him due to the Nelson loss?
Obviously I don’t really trust Bilder’s game. He is not landing takedowns at a high rate, but he’s at least averaged 5 TDAs per fight in the UFC..
It’s possible he can compete on volume and he might have more paths to victory. If he’s going to project to be very low owned, Bilder is worth consideration.
He is only +310 to win ITD and won’t rate out super well, and I understand prioritizing a few other options in this range. I can’t say I love Bilder but I consider him a fine secondary target who may carry some leverage on the slate.
Fight Prediction: Lee by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Luana Carolina vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Fight Odds: Stoliarenko -144, Carolina +125
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Stoliarenko 8.2k, Carolina 8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a low level WMMA fight here between Luana Carolina and Julija Stoliarenko.
Carolina is a striker and a Thai striker more specifically. She uses a lengthy and evasive game to land some long punches and kicks. She lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.00 in return. She only defends strikes at 47 percent.
She is simply an okay striker who can compete against the low and average strikers in this weight class.
Carolina doesn’t wrestle much. She has only landed one takedown in the UFC and has never won by submission in her professional career. In her last fight against Ivana Petrovic, she did at least float on top and get some control time. Her offensive wrestling is still not good though.
She does at least defend takedowns at 76 percent. She can be pressured and clinched up and I have seen her taken down and controlled. She was also comically knee barred against Ariana Lipski a few fights back. However, her TDD isn’t THAT bad. She sneakily beat Loopy Godinez and defended 13 of 15 takedown attempts by Godinez. When she is actually grounded, she does have trouble getting up at times. I also just don’t trust her submission defense after seeing the Lipski sequence.
Carolina will be taking on UFC veteran and armbar specialist Julija Stoliarenko. I don’t have many good things to say about Stoliarenko. Let’s put it this way, she is 12-6 in her last 18 fights. 11 of her wins have come by first round armbar. Almost anytime her fights go past a round, she loses.
When Stoliarenko is not getting first round armbars, she kind of just tries to draw out an ugly war on the feet. She is a tough girl, I will give her that. She tries hard, is willing to throw punches, can take a shot, and tries to compete. However, she just isn’t really good at anything.
Stoliarenko lands 2.81 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.56 in return which is god awful. I will say that I think she looked better than I expected her to look against Julia Avila. She somewhat competed on the feet at times and was only outlanded 42-37 at distance. So she wasn’t completely blown out standing and she was able to make it ugly at times, and keep it semi-competitive.
Stoliarenko also stayed tough against Alexis Davis on the feet. She outlanded Davis 51-41 at distance but was outgrappled pretty badly and lost the fight.
Stoliarenko lands 0.91 takedowns per 15 minutes and doesn’t look like someone who is willing to go for takedowns and go for a grappling top game path to victory. She just didn’t look good on top the one time I saw her there against Avila either. She defends takedowns at 62 percent which is decent. However, she is pretty bad off her back and can be controlled, get her back taken, etc.
Stoliarenko just isn’t very good. I pretty much only see her ever winning UFC fights if she either gets a quick armbar, or if she wins an ugly split decision on the feet against someone who is also not very good as a striker.
This fight is so dumb man, and I don’t even know who to pick. I think I favor Carolina as a round winner. If this stays standing, I think Carolina will probably have a slight advantage and Carolina probably has enough tdd to stop some takedowns. So picking Carolina is honestly perfectly fine, and I usually lean toward round winners in this situation.
For some reason, I just can’t get the Carolina Lipski sequence out of my head though. It was ridiculous. Stoliarenko isn’t great but she is dangerous and way more likely to win inside the distance here. Carolina just seems so green, and I just have a feeling Stoliarenko is going to catch her in a dumb submission.
Stoliarenko also likes to pressure which could lead to some success on the feet and bother Carolina, and create some type of sequence that ends up on the mat.
So I will go with Stoliarenko. She is more likely to win ITD. Although I favor Carolina if this goes to decision, I don’t think it is a lock. Stoliarenko could maybe pressure and keep striking exchanges competitive and mix in a couple of takedowns too.
—
On DraftKings, I expect Stoliarenko to be the more popular fighter at 8.2k, coming off a first-round submission win over Molly McCann.
Her upside is pretty straightforward too, as she’s somewhat dependent on an early submission. She has scored 123 and 99 points in her two UFC wins, and another win ITD here would have her compete for the optimal.
Stoliarenko is +125 to win ITD in this matchup which is very good for the price.
I essentially back up everything Tim said about the matchup though. I feel like the right pick is Carolina because she’s a better round winner, but it’s really hard to get that Lipski loss out of my head.
There’s no reason to be confident here but obviously Stoliarenko has some early finishing upside. At 8.2k, she’ll be popular, but she’s a good tournament option and it’s not wrong to play her moderately.
Carolina at 8k is much less exciting because even in a win, her ceiling is questionable. She may not have much or any success grappling and striking exchanges could be weird. She is +480 to win ITD which is awful.
I do think there could be some ground exchanges though, even if initiated by Stoliarenko. Maybe Carolina gets 1-2 takedowns and a reversal, and some control. Chandler pounded out Stoliarenko on the mat too.
Carolina will definitely be the leverage side of the matchup and she should be low owned in general. That’s the main reason to target her.
But I do question her upside compared to other fighters in this range and she seems like a low-end secondary option based on her skill set. I probably won’t have the guts to play much Carolina this week.
Fight Prediction: Stoliarenko by Armbar, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Landon Quinones vs. MarQuel Mederos
Fight Odds: Mederos -135, Quinones +117
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Mederos 8.5k, Quinones 7.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
MarQuel Mederos is a 7-fight vet of the Fury FC promotion and will be making his UFC debut on Saturday after a successful Contender Series outing back in October – he’s 8-1 as a pro. Landon Quinones got bounced out in the 1st round of TUF 31 this past season, but was brought in as a short notice replacement last year where he performed admirably given the opponent and circumstance – he’s 7-2-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Mederos’ official background but he trains out of the Factory X camp in Colorado which shows in his striking style.
He’ll use a lot of stance switching, angle cutting, blitz boxing and he’s a proactive kicker — a semi-similar style to fellow teammates at Factory X in Chris Gutierrez, Jonathan Martinez and Yusuff Zalal.
However, he’s not as outside based as those guys and does like to play within the lip of the pocket where he’s shown consistent volume patterns, and power to boot with 6 of his 8 pro wins coming via KO.
I still don’t fancy him as this big “one shot” guy per say though, and view him as more of an attritional guy who picks up on reads and will break guys down.
Although, we did see him blast Isakov on the Contender Series with a really well-timed knee off a TDA from the Russian – knees are an additional constant with the Factory X guys.
But despite his movement patterns and footwork, I still have some issues with his defense as he keeps a pretty loose guard, so he is available to timed counter shots or straights.
He’s never been KO’d or significantly hurt in the fights I’ve seen, but I have seen him get tagged on more than one occasion.
Overall, I generally like what I’ve seen from Mederos standing to date as a good rhythmic striker, but I figure he’ll have some issues at the UFC level with more adept counter strikers who have additional footwork.
Quinones is a stockier 155 that stands southpaw and works in a more conventional kickboxing type of style.
He’s had some slower starts as a guy that likes to pick up on reads, and more so serves as an attritional based striker.
However, we have seen him starch a handful of guys early, repping KOs in 5 of his 7 pro wins.
His work rate is consistent, but I still wouldn’t say he’s “uber high volume” outside of his debut showing against Haqparast where he landed 148 significant strikes, which was on short notice, so he’s clearly capable of fighting at very high work rates.
Touching on that fight, despite officially getting 30-27’d, Quinones showed he’s got that dog in him and compromised the legs of Haqparast to the point where Haqparast had to switch stances halfway through the fight.
Kicking has been a component he’s shown regionally as well.
The issues I more so have with Quinones come defensively as he can get complacent at times, and I’ve seen him hurt twice regionally and in the 2nd round against Haqparast.
In his defense, he’s recovered well in all of those scenarios but common strikes he’s getting caught with are hooks and overhands.
Overall, he hadn’t been pushed much regionally but the Haqparast fight definitely answered some questions there, and showed he can fight up tempo and still compete to a degree with a mid-upper tier striker at the UFC level.
How it plays out: There are actually quite a few parallels for both guys here. They’re much better front footed fighters who flow with some power and kick well, but do leave defensive openings. I’ve seen Quinones tagged more than Mederos, but Quinones may have more dog in him and may still have success in dirtier fights, where I’m not sure if Mederos will. I feel a bulk of what the standup comes down to is which guy is going to get the respect of the other and early and command the center. I honestly don’t have a great gauge on that.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Mederos is a recently crowned BJJ Purple Belt but reps no pro wins via submission as a guy that generally likes to stand and strike.
However, we did see him take a stronger wrestling approach in his fight against Murphy who was a taller fighter that did get his respect on the feet.
He was able to land multiple TDs throughout the fight and kind of grind the guy away.
But he did lose position at one time in the 2nd round to where he got his back taken and wasn’t able to work out of the position – he did fight hands well though.
Outside of that, he’s shown pretty strong TDD, specifically on the Contender Series where Isakov did control him from the body lock but couldn’t ground Mederos – he’s stuffed shots in multiple other fights as well against base wrestlers regionally.
Overall, for a guy that does prefer to strike, he appears to be well-rounded and competent on the ground, but I would like a larger sample.
Quinones is a BJJ Blue Belt with only 1 pro win via submission in his career, which was back in 2018.
However, he has mixed in TDs here and there in a handful of his fights where he’s been able to rack up some minutes and throw some GNP – but as noted, he hasn’t been much of an offensive submission threat.
In general, he’s still a fighter who does prefer to stand and strike for extended periods in the bulk of his fights.
Defensively, I’ve only seen him on the bottom once which was off a reversal to where he was able to scramble back up to the feet relatively quickly.
His TDD has looked really solid to date as he’s shucked off essentially every TD I’ve seen guys shoot on him in his last 6 fights – he’s shown a good sprawl and does a good job of keeping a wide base/digging underhooks although guys can close distance on him.
However, he was submitted by Jason Knight in the 1st round on TUF where he shot an early TD, defended an armbar attempt, but didn’t posture correctly after that and got caught in a triangle.
Knight does have an aggressive guard but it’s still a tad concerning that that was one of the only times we’ve seen him threatened with something and it didn’t go well – I do still attribute it to a small mistake in a high-pressure situation though which can be easily corrected.
Overall, it appears that Quinones is a capable offensive and defensive wrestler but his jiu-jitsu may be one of the weaker points in his game.
How it plays out: Similar to the striking, I think there are parallels here. Both are capable offensive and defensive wrestlers where pure jiu-jitsu is probably their main flaw. The sample of grappling exchanges for both though is limited, so it’s hard to say who gets the better of it there. I suppose I’d more so lean to Mederos on merit of being the Purple Belt. Who’s the better wrestler? I honestly don’t know. I largely think these guys will oblige each other in the striking fight they like and enjoy.
On a card that’s got some good fights but still won’t blow your hair back, this is one of the fights that I have the most intrigue in because it’s very well matched. I ever so slightly lean with Quinones just in the sense that he’s fought a tougher strength of schedule, got his debut out of the way and showed he can compete with a UFC level striker. I still do like Mederos though and feel he does have the skills to be in the UFC. This should be an honest scrap.
—
On DraftKings, I wouldn’t say this fight is at the top of my list but I do have mild interest, mostly for pacing purposes with some finishing potential.
Mederos is going to rate out better at 8.5k, with a +150 ITD line. Of the two, I would say he’s a little bit more damage based, and I would expect the majority of his success in the UFC to come from early knockouts.
While he has gone the distance too, I don’t view him as an elite round winner, and I would not be comfortable if you told me this fight went the distance.
Conversely, I suppose it could be recency bias but Quinones going toe to toe with Haqparast and landing nearly 150 sig. strikes in 15 minutes is difficult for me to overlook. Especially given he absorbed more than 170 significant strikes. Clearly Quinones is tough and that is important.
At 7.7k, Quinones won’t rate out as well with limited wrestling equity and a +300 ITD line, but I think he has a legitimate chance to win this fight. In fact, the line has been moving in his direction all week to where he’s now only +117, which means he’s a mild value at 7.7k.
Quinones is my preferred play in this matchup and I will be using him somewhat frequently given the salary savings, but he’s obviously not a guarantee.
He’s not the sharpest defensively, he can be hit and hurt. So it’s arguable that Mederos has more KO upside as his ITD line indicates. A loss may not look pretty for Quinones.
I think that loss to Haqparast is the best performance of either man’s career though, and I’m willing to bet on a guy who can land 50 strikes per round to compete as an underdog, against an opponent making his UFC debut who typically wins quickly.
I think Quinones could look like a clear favorite here in an extended fight. He could land a small number of takedowns though I don’t expect him to do anything with it. There’s some KO equity due to attrition.
At 7.7k, especially with some moneyline value, Quinones is a decent option and I like him for win equity and pacing.
I could see Quinones ending up more popular based on the value, and based on his debut. If that’s the case, it could be smart to come in overweight on Mederos as the leverage side.
I still want some exposure to Mederos. He shouldn’t be super popular at 8.5k and does have some early finishing equity. I wouldn’t expect him to score many points in an extended fight, though he could land a takedown or two as well.
It’s just a bigger risk at this price and he’s somewhat boom or bust, with a fighting style I trust less, while his moneyline is moving in the wrong direction. These things don’t make him safe, but don’t completely dismiss his tournament upside, especially if he projects to be lower owned publicly.
Fight Prediction: Quinones by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Thomas Petersen vs. Jamal Pogues
Fight Odds: Petersen -159, Pogues +137
Odds to Finish: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Petersen 8.7k, Pogues 7.5k
Weight Class: HW
We have a low-level HW matchup to start the night off as Thomas Petersen makes his UFC debut against Jamal Pogues.
We can start with the analysis on Pogues because there aren’t too many positive things to say.
He’s 10-4 professionally with four wins by knockout and one by submission, but he’s not dangerous in any area of the game and it will be difficult to pick him confidently moving forward.
The best attribute we’ve seen in his game is volume wrestling. Pogues landed seven takedowns in one of his Contender Series fights, and then he landed five takedowns against Josh Parisian in his UFC debut.
But without much finishing potential, those takedowns don’t mean much. Pogues literally landed 22 ground strikes from those 12 takedowns landed, so he’s just not very active. Nor is his submission grappling great, despite being a BJJ black belt.
On the feet, he’s a very basic boxer, at best. Parisian outlanded him 35 to 20 at distance, and most recently, he was pieced up by Mick Parkin and outlanded 92 to 34.
Without much power, or volume, Pogues isn’t really a threat on the feet and his best chance is working behind a jab for 15 minutes. For now, I consider him a low-level talent, and a somewhat capable wrestler when he can essentially lay on top of his opponents.
His opponent Thomas Petersen is a better prospect, but I’m unsure to what degree.
Petersen is 8-1 professionally and earned his contract on DWCS in August with a first round submission.
He’s a two-time state champion wrestler from Minnesota and he wrestled in college as well at NDSU.
That’s definitely his area of strength. For a big man, Petersen can wrestle pretty well, and sometimes pretty well is more than good enough for the upper weight classes.
His striking is basically a means to an end anyway. He’ll blitz with power punches but it’s meant to close distance so he can clinch, and wrestle.
I’ve seen a decent mix of takedowns. He has Greco-Roman in his game and can use his upper body well in clinches. He can also dive on single and double legs. I wouldn’t say he’s an elite wrestler for MMA but he seems capable enough, and has a decent pedigree.
On top, he’ll mostly throw ground-and-pound. It’s not the most dangerous thing I’ve ever seen but can get the job done when you have an opponent underneath you who doesn’t wrestle well.
He also showed off a nice keylock submission on DWCS, though it was the first submission of his career. He is a BJJ blue belt so it’s tough to expect a massive submission arsenal.
His only pro loss came to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in LFA, who knocked him out in round three. Petersen is not a good striker at distance, and he’s somewhat liable defensively. WCA hurt him late and swarmed for the stoppage.
I like Petersen’s punching power, and he does seem to be a willing boxer at least. But I need to see a lot more before I view him as a capable round winner at this point. And I mostly would trust him against opponents who he projects to take down, because that’s where his one main strength is.
This matchup isn’t a super fun one to be honest, though I’m mildly interested in watching Petersen.
He’ll be my pick to win simply because I think his wrestling is better than Pogues, and neither guy is good at any other aspect of the game.
I am unsure how dominant he’ll be though. It’s possible Pogues can defend takedowns or scramble his way back up. Pogues has the better BJJ pedigree too but I’m hesitant to put any meaning behind it.
I don’t think Pogues is extremely likely to land takedowns here, though I suppose it’s possible if he simply attempts them. Even if he can take down Petersen, I would be surprised if he could hold him down or threaten with a submission. That would be a real dagger to any future hopes for Petersen.
If this fight plays out on the feet, you’re looking at the more technical boxing from Pogues, versus the more power based, inefficient boxing of Petersen. Neither one feels right to pick.
I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if Pogues won that battle but he’s just so low-volume that I wouldn’t trust him to be very impactful. Petersen probably only has success in bursts which will be coupled by lots of clinching. This fight could get ugly if it doesn’t end quickly.
On DraftKings, it’s a real tough click to put either fighter on your roster.
My guess is Petersen will be more popular, and he has more straightforward upside, given his wrestling potential. He’s also won every single fight of his ITD, while Pogues hasn’t won a fight ITD since 2019.
At 8.7k, there’s some merit to Petersen. He’s +140 to win ITD a victory likely comes with takedowns, control, and ground strikes. We know those can pile up at times and lead to massive scores.
For that reason I do think Petersen should be in your player pool. Having moderate exposure is fine too because of the pricing.
However, there’s definitely risk here. If he can’t easily take Pogues down, he might score very few points and just lose the fight outright. Even if he can land takedowns, there’s no guarantee it leads directly to a finish.
This fight might be gross if it lasts a while too, so there’s a chance we’re bashing our heads against a wall 10 minutes into this slate if we have too much exposure to Petersen.
Ultimately, I don’t think I’ll aim to take a major stand against the field on Petersen. He’s a worthy tournament option but there are question marks and a low floor.
Pogues at 7.5k is only +137 to win, so in that sense, he’s in play. He could win and save you salary, and potentially compete with the optimal.
But it’s hard to make a great case for floor or ceiling. Pogues is only +475 to win ITD, which is not great. Even in his decision win where he landed five takedowns, Pogues only scored 82 DK points.
He should be very low owned though. I don’t see many people being interested in him and he won’t project well.
At least he can wrestle a bit and a win might come with some takedowns, even though they’re hard to project against Petersen. Petersen’s only loss came by TKO too so who knows, this is HW.
Obviously I don’t rate Pogues highly but I don’t want to completely dismiss him in what could be a very low-level fight. I might have a small percentage so I don’t lose my mind if he wins to start the night, but realistically, he’s a low-end option with a questionable floor and ceiling.
Fight Prediction: Petersen by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)