UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady (9/7/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
Fight Odds: Brady -182, Burns +156
Odds to Finish: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Brady 8.7k, Burns 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
While I wouldn’t say I’m bubbling with confidence about how this fight will play out, I’m pretty excited for this week’s main event between Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady, two fighters who I enjoy watching and are willing to scrap.
Burns is the veteran of the two. A submission grappling ace who’s developed his striking skills throughout a decade on the UFC roster, Burns eventually was rewarded with a title shot against Kamaru Usman in 2021.
Despite falling short nearly every time he’s taken a major step up in competition, Burns has put on good performances and is still among the best fighters in the welterweight division.
Sean Brady is the prospect of the two, though he’s now competed seven times inside the Octagon, getting his hand raised on every occasion with the exception of a recent loss to current champion Belal Muhammad.
While I understand Brady being the younger of the two athletes with an upward career trajectory and less wear on his tires, I don’t consider Burns an easy matchup for him and a win in his first main event would be the biggest accomplishment of his career by far.
We can start with the obvious in that Brady is very well-rounded, and can typically fight at a decent pace both on the feet and on the mat.
His wrestling has been a big key to his success, where he’s averaged 3.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed five, five and four takedowns in a few of his UFC wins.
He’s also a BJJ black belt and a quality grappler in top position, where he’s able to control opponents or threaten them with submissions.
However, he’s not on the level of Gilbert Burns. A stud, elite-level submission grappler who at one point in time was among the best grapplers in the world, let alone in mixed martial arts.
Burns isn’t immune to being taken down, but it’s a stretch to believe Brady will have an easy time controlling Burns on the canvas, let alone threatening him there.
Many fighters, including Kamaru Usman who’s a far superior wrestler to Brady, were terrified of wrestling with Burns and avoided those confrontations entirely. Demian Maia took Burns down twice in 2020 and couldn’t finish him. Gunnar Nelson never got close. Chimaev was only able to accrue a couple minutes of control on Burns in 15 minutes.
I’m open to the idea that Brady can land takedowns here, but there’s a real chance he can do nothing with them, even if he can get on top. It’s also quite possible he will avoid this route, or be in danger himself when he attempts to grapple.
Conversely, Burns isn’t an elite wrestler, but he’s decent and he’s coming off a seven takedown performance against Jack Della Maddalena in which he was less than two minutes away from winning a decision, before getting hurt.
Brady defends takedowns well at 87 percent, so there’s no guarantee Burns will get him down either, but even one positive exchange for Burns could lead to him getting the back of Brady and threatening for a finish.
My best guess is that we’ll see the two neutralize each other there early on, though as the fight progresses and both get tired, either could have a bigger edge if they get on top.
On the feet, Brady rates out better but only slightly.
Burns has technical gaps there which is understandable, and it’s gotten him hurt several times. He probably will continue to get hurt on occasion, and he’s typically falling behind on the numbers a little bit.
But he’s gone to war against some guys too. He had early moments against Usman. He landed 119 sig. strikes against Chimaev and badly hurt him at points. He went five rounds with Belal Muhammad, while being injured and not putting up a huge fight, Belal was able to take out Brady in less than two rounds.
That’s the other thing with Brady. He’s been inconsistent. He had an extremely easy run of competition to start his UFC tenure, and then gassed out pretty badly against Michael Chiesa who I don’t view as a threat in any capacity. Then he got pressed and was TKOd in round two by Belal Muhammad.
Now he’s coming off a win against Kelvin Gastelum where he just held onto Gastelum for nine of the 11 minutes in that fight. It’s a good performance but again, is that path to victory available to him against Burns? I doubt it.
We’ve also seen Brady push a hard 15 minutes in his UFC debut where he too landed 119 sig. strikes. I believe in his cardio but it has looked shaky in other spots. Now in his first main event against someone who could test him, I’m not certain how he’ll look in those championship rounds.
Ultimately, I again have to project exchanges to be competitive. I think Brady is probably more technical than Burns, and Brady is more likely to hurt Burns than vice versa, but it’s not by a massive margin.
Only 55% of Brady’s fights have been taking place at distance, which means 45% are in the clinch or on the mat. That 45% against Burns won’t be an easy task, and I don’t think we have a large enough sample to truly know how Brady will fare in a hard 25-minute fight at distance.
It’s still fair to favor Brady. While he may not be able to land takedowns or control Burns with ease, he can probably defend takedowns early on. He probably does have higher volume upside, better defense and more KO equity. He’s less worn down.
I just don’t see those edges being massive and Burns is far more experienced having fought many great opponents, and he’s well-rounded enough to compete everywhere.
The real X factor is probably cardio as well. If I knew for sure Brady would be totally fresh down the stretch, he’d be the comfortable side. Having watched him get pretty tired in the only two recent fights where he’s faced adversity, I’m just hesitant to lock him in.
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On DraftKings, this should be a solid fantasy fight to target and the winner should contend for the optimal on pacing alone.
Brady is priced up to 8.7k, which does feel a little steep for me, but he has the ability to both strike at a high rate and wrestle at a high rate. Plus, he has some KO equity and is +225 to win ITD.
My hesitations as noted are that he may not have any real ground advantage. He may not even want to wrestle at all. If he can only kickbox, I’m not sure that volume alone will be enough and he’ll probably need additional damage to reach a ceiling.
With that said, he could mix in 2-4 takedowns without doing anything with them. He could land 120-140 significant strikes and he could score a KD. The potential of all those things at 8.7k still give him plenty of room to exceed value in a victory, even one by decision.
Burns at 7.5k is the easier target in that if he wins, he’ll outproduce his price tag. Whether it comes via striking, or grappling, Burns will have to produce a lot of offense to keep up with Brady, and realistically, some of it will come on the ground.
His ITD line isn’t as strong at +240, but it’s decent and Burns is a finisher, and if Brady gets tired, Burns could hurt him standing or jump on a submission at any point. At 7.5k I think he’s an easy secondary target, with a winnable matchup and both grappling and finishing equity.
I expect Brady will be higher owned as the favorite in the fight, and his box scores look great even in three-round fights. He’s a strong cash game target at this price, and it makes sense to have moderate exposure in tournaments.
I do think there’s merit to skipping the main event in some constructions, knowing that we could see a big score from Fletcher/Ramaska, Peek/Ashmouz, and Garcia/Nelson in this range. There are likely to be many strong scores on the slate so it’s possible Brady looks great and tops 100 points, but gets just barely beaten out for the optimal.
With a more limited portfolio, I’d still lean toward prioritizing the matchup due to pacing, grappling skill on both sides and a realistic chance for the matchup to end ITD.
I will probably lean closer toward a split of Brady/Burns than the public will though. Burns is among my favorite underdog targets for pure upside, and I think he has cash viability in a stack as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Brady by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -311, Andrade +251
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9k, Andrade 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am really excited to see Natalia Silva back in the cage. I have been impressed with her first five UFC fights, and I think she is a solid prospect in this weight class. She will be getting a step up in competition when she fights UFC veteran Jessica Andrade this weekend.
Silva is best as a striker. You saw it on the regionals and in her UFC fights thus far. Silva lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.10 in return.
She defends strikes at a solid 65 percent. She does a very good job moving backward to control range, and countering to land her kicks. She also likes to occasionally spring into range to wing punches in the pocket. She then likes to get back to her range on the outside and start landing kicks again.
Silva is fast and has decent pop for this division. She is one of the rare women fighters who can strike going backward, and I think she can outland the majority of this division on the feet. She also seems to have good defense in general.
Silva also occasionally mixes in takedowns, mostly from the clinch, and she can float on top a bit. I don’t consider her offensive wrestling all that great and she only lands 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she is pretty physically strong and has decent upper body takedown technique. She can definitely land occasional takedowns vs below-average competition.
Silva’s defensive wrestling, especially from the clinch, seems pretty strong. Her TDD overall held up against Tereza Bleda, Victoria Leonardo, and Viviane Araujo. She is currently defending takedowns at 91 percent. She also just seems to have a decent understanding of BJJ as well. She can be taken down here and there, but I consider her defensive grappling good overall.
Silva will be taking on UFC veteran Jessica Andrade. One of the biggest strengths of Andrade is her aggression and cardio combination. She will march her opponents down and put a wild pace on them, whether it is with her strikes or with her takedowns.
As a striker, Andrade isn’t all that technical but she is quite competent and dangerous. She has one punch KO power, and is very aggressive and wings wild hooks. She lands 6.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.37 in return.
Andrade is hittable, but she generally hits much harder than her opponents from a strike per strike basis and tends to wear them down over the course of 15 minutes. She does get hurt every now and then though and was recently knocked out by Yan Xiaonan, so her durability is worrying me a bit.
As a grappler, Andrade again isn’t all that technical but she is very tenacious and physically strong which aids her takedown ability. Andrade lands 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes and she can absolutely break opponents with her takedowns and ground control. Andrade defends takedowns at 72 percent, and I actually do consider her first layer tdd pretty decent.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Silva overall because I think she is a better defensive striker. I think she will make Andrade miss a lot and land counters because of how aggressive Andrade is. Andrade is just too hittable for my liking.
I still do think Andrade could pressure and compete on the feet optically, especially if Silva isn’t landing enough on the counters or making Andrade pay enough. If Andrade pressures, occasionally lands some strikes and Silva lands more but not too much more, this could be a close fight.
Andrade could also maybe mix in takedowns here. I doubt Andrade lands a ton of takedowns or does much with them. However, I do think Andrade could land a takedown or two which could mean a lot in a competitive fight. So the betting line may be a tad too wide.
Still though, Silva is just very good defensively. She is hard to land strikes on and hard to grapple so I am going to pick her to win. I think she will minimize the offense of Andrade enough and land enough offense of her own to take a decision.
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On DraftKings, neither fighter will rate out incredibly well but there’s always a risk to be light on Andrade fights.
The reason being, Andrade can push an insane pace and force action. In a win, Andrade can land tons of strikes and many takedowns, or win by KO. And given her pressure and hitability, she’s been getting knocked out occasionally in losses.
However, Silva is going to play a defensive range game, so she’ll do her best to limit Andrade’s attack. And because she’s a heavy favorite north of -300, odds are she can have success with that style.
That style works, but it’s less fantasy friendly. Silva will be evading, not necessarily forcing action. She likely won’t wrestle either.
Even if we project her for a career high in significant strikes landed, I don’t think that’s enough to pay off a 9k price tag. Silva likely just needs an early knockout.
Silva has scored 85, 58 and 51 points in her three UFC decisions, and she’s only +195 to win ITD in this matchup. Most likely, Silva just won’t get that quick KO and won’t end up optimal at 9k, and for that reason, I will be light on exposure.
My guess is the field will be light as well, and Silva does still have a path to a KO. If you want to play a bit of her contrarian purposes, it’s not a terrible strategy. I do prefer the theoretical upside of some fighters priced below Silva though, and ultimately, I will be light on exposure.
Andrade at 7.2k always has upside within her style. And even in this kind of matchup, Silva will look great until she doesn’t.
She’ll control Andrade easily at distance but as soon as Andrade can pressure her way into the pocket, Andrade can land damaging shots and wrestle. So it’s not as if there’s no path for Andrade.
The question really is how likely is that outcome, and odds suggest it’s not that likely. Silva is only absorbing 2.1 strikes per minute and defending takedowns at 91 percent. I don’t hate Andrade, but it’s tough to recommend a large investment when facing a sound defensive opponent.
I think I will likely look elsewhere for my underdog options. Andrade is in play as a salary saver given her pacing and +425 ITD line, but it’s a tough matchup and I feel better about the paths to a ceiling with some other dogs on the slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson
Fight Odds: Garcia -181, Nelson +155
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Garcia 8.6k, Nelson 7.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a firefight here as Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson will bang it out this weekend.
Garcia thrives as a striker and more specifically, a boxer. He is super aggressive and will walk his opponents down and throw aggressive boxing combinations. I like that he works the body often as well, as I believe body shots are underutilized in the UFC.
I like his volume. He tries to drown fighters, use his cardio as a weapon, and he also has power. I really liked the way he swarmed Melquizael Costa and SeungWoo Choi in his most recent wins.
Garcia is moreso a brawler but he does have a decent jab and has some okay pure boxing skills. He kind of throws his jab, comes into close range and starts throwing hooks and uppercuts, and fights with inside combinations. Garcia also has power and has 13 knockouts in 16 professional wins.
Garcia is aggressive so he is liable to get hit though. Although he has only been knocked out once in 21 professional fights, he has been hurt a lot. Ontiveros literally hurt him in multiple rounds until Garcia went to his grappling to take Ontiveros down. He was also knocked out by Maheshate and knocked down against Nuerdanbieke. He is a tough guy, but I just feel like getting hurt that often against mediocre or worse competition is not a good thing. It shows defensive holes.
Garcia has okay first layer takedown defense and will work to his feet if taken down. He showed some okay offensive wrestling against Charlie Ontiveros where he landed three takedowns. I generally think he will be dependent on winning fights with his hands. I really like his aggression overall though.
Garcia will be taking on Kyle Nelson who has surprised many by winning his last three UFC fights against Blake Bilder, Fernando Padilla, and Bill Algeo as an underdog in all three contests. I do think in some ways Kyle Nelson has been a bit underrated. However, I really think he has been fortunate with some luck and variance as well. He has still had some really bad losses in the UFC, including one to Matt Sayles.
I still don’t think Nelson isn’t very good. His striking ratios are not great. He lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.69 in return. He isn’t very great on the feet when fights get extended. He is never really going to win clean rounds. I do think he at least showed some improvement in his last few fights.
I do think Nelson has some power though. He has some decent hands, especially early in fights, and he is capable of hurting opponents. He knocked out Polo Reyes and hurt Diego Ferreira badly. He also hurt several fighters on the regionals. He recently knocked out Bill Algeo but it was probably an early stoppage.
I mostly can’t expect Nelson to win fights on the feet at this level unless he lands KOs or if he fights people who will not throw volume. He is a decently tough guy who has only been put away with strikes on the feet once in the third round against Billy Q. His other KO loss was from ground and pound to Ferreira. So I do think Nelson can stay tough in fights which gives himself an opportunity for a KO. It still isn’t a process of winning fights that will win at a high percentage though.
Nelson does have okay wrestling in his game. He landed two takedowns against Sayles (who is a terrible grappler) and had success. He landed five takedowns against Dooho Choi. He also had success on the regionals with grappling at times. He can kind of land takedowns and threaten with back takes using his physicality.
He also attempts six takedowns per 15 minutes so he does choose to grapple semi-often. I still don’t think he is a good grappler though and doubt he can do much damage with it in the UFC.
Nelson defends takedowns at 73 percent. I think he is okay with his defensive wrestling because of his physicality. However, he still isn’t great on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I do lean Garcia because I generally think he is capable of putting up more offense for an extended period. I think he has better cardio than Nelson specifically. Garcia honestly may be a better grappler as well. I overall just think Garcia has more firepower on the feet than Nelson and has faster hands in the pocket.
However, one thing I keep thinking about is that Garcia generally knocks opponents out and Nelson is pretty tough overall. Nelson rarely gets knocked out with one shot. I do think Nelson just being able to survive for a bit could give him opportunities to hurt Garcia. Nelson is honestly probably more durable than Garcia so I do think Nelson is capable of just being the tougher party, absorbing some shots, and knocking Garcia out.
Overall though, I think Nelson is much more knockout dependent in this matchup. If Nelson doesn’t knock Garcia out early, I don’t think he can keep up with Garcia’s pace and will likely get drowned. So I do like Garcia overall in this matchup because I don’t think he is reliant on an early knockout. If Garcia simply survives early, it will probably just result in Nelson tiring out and Garcia landing a bunch of accumulation strikes. So I will pick Garcia to win.
This is a firefight though and both guys have power so variance is in play. So this isn’t a fight I am bulletproof confident in. I do think this will be a fun one though.
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On DraftKings, I expect this to be a popular matchup to target due to both sides’ recent success.
It’s pretty interesting honestly, as a couple of years ago, both Garcia and Nelson were viewed as bad fighters. Now they’ve won a combined seven fights in a row with five knockouts.
I’m still pretty hesitant to trust either side, but it’s hard to deny Garcia’s aggression. That alone gives him fantasy potential in a win, and he’s smashed recently, scoring 108, 95, 94, and 133. Again, those have come with knockouts.
I’m far less excited about Garcia in an extended fight, as striking volume won’t get it done. I also don’t completely trust him to find the KO, but this matchup still rates out extremely well with a -600 ITD line.
That means Garcia will rate out well himself at 8.6k. He’s -155 to win ITD with elite box scores and a decent price tag. He will probably be chalk again and I don’t mind moderate exposure.
At some point, his success will run out though. In his last six fights, Garcia has been knocked down five times. We can’t just dismiss that. It doesn’t mean we can’t roster Garcia at a high rate here but he is KO dependent, at chalk, and so there’s always some risk with that kind of profile.
Nelson at 7.6k interests me some just given the matchup and the durability question marks of Garcia.
I mostly consider him boom or bust as well. I don’t expect a ton of offensive production over 15 minutes and I can’t count on any grappling. I’m really hoping for a KO win if I’m playing Nelson.
That does feel possible, and Nelson has a decent ITD line of +215. He’ll likely be leverage against Garcia as well.
I don’t love Nelson as a talent and I’m not necessarily aiming to be extremely overweight to the field, but there is certainly merit in loading up on this matchup given the metrics, and on the Nelson side given the leverage.
He’ll be a strong tournament option all things considered at 7.6k, and I think there’s a reasonable chance for success.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Garcia by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden
Fight Odds: Costa -302, Schnell +245
Odds to Finish: Under 2.5 RDs -185
DraftKings Salaries: Durden 9.4k, Schnell 6.7k
Weight Class: 135
I don’t have anything against Matt Schnell, but I’m long past the point of wanting to see him compete again. Coming off yet another KO loss, he’ll take on Cody Durden this weekend on very short notice.
Schnell was originally scheduled to fight Alessandro Costa, but Costa pulled out and the UFC scheduled Durden as the replacement on Tuesday. Durden himself is coming off a TKO loss and back-to-back stoppage losses, so maybe the matchup makes sense.
The primary issue with Schnell has always been his chin – for better or worse – he takes damage and he goes unconscious. Given everything we’ve seen come out in the past decade about brain damage, at some point I wish fighters like Schnell would move on to a different career.
We first saw Schnell on TUF many years ago, and he’s definitely gotten better since he made his UFC debut in 2016. He’s a decent boxer, and a crafty submission grappler from the bottom.
But he’s only fought to a 6-7 record inside the UFC, and five of those seven losses have been devastating knockouts. It was pretty obvious that he had chin issues even from the jump. He was getting put unconscious with bunny ground shots by low-level opponents like Hector Sandoval.
More recently, he’s suffered back-to-back KO losses to Steve Erceg and Matheus Nicolau. Even in fights he’s won, he’s been nearly KOd.
With that said, having a bad chin doesn’t mean you can’t win. There’s an extreme amount of variance in striking exchanges, and there are a million factors that determine whether you can eat a shot cleanly, or whether it will put you out. More career damage typically means more future damage though.
Point being, if Schnell stays conscious, he’s OK. He lands 4.23 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 4.56. He doesn’t have much power or finishing ability which is another issue, but he can compete on minutes.
He also only lands 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes, and defends at 50 percent. He has a really good guard game and triangles from his back, but that’s about it. None of these metrics make me think Schnell is going to have a career turnaround, and it will mostly be a point of whether he stays conscious or not.
Honestly, I at least have some hope that Schnell can survive this matchup as Durden is a primary wrestler who doesn’t have a long history of winning fights by knockout.
Durden debuted in the UFC in 2020 and got off to a tough start, failing to win in three of his first four matchups, though that run included a draw against Chris Gutierrez and a loss to Muhammad Mokaev, who are both tough outs.
He then won four in a row, including three by decision, and most recently got his hand raised against Jake Hadley last August.
Durden is best on the mat where he can wrestle at a high pace, and he averages 4.60 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He’s also a credible submission grappler, though he’s yet to win by submission in the UFC.
Durden is down to scrap, but I just don’t think he’s great in any one area of the game. Wrestling control is fine, but he’s been submitted in three of his four UFC losses which is a red flag, and sort of outlines that while he specializes on the mat, he’s not a massive threat there outside of pace wrestling.
On the feet, Durden is mediocre. He lands 3.19 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.09 per minute, and he’s willing to throw down. He just doesn’t land lots of volume and his career high in 10 UFC bouts is 60 significant strikes.
He’s also not a major knockout threat, and outside of his KO against JP Buys, Durden hasn’t scored any other knockdowns. Buys is also known for having a horrible chin, so maybe Schnell is at the level needed where Durden’s power can actually be impactful.
I will note that in his last fight, despite losing by TKO, Durden looked OK. He hurt Bruno Silva and jumped on a choke, but couldn’t lock it in. I liked his finishing threat in that sequence, enough to acknowledge it here. While he’s not an elite finisher, he has some skills.
Still, Silva survived, hurt him and got the TKO in that same round. And he was dropped by Ulanbekov in the fight prior. And he was also dropped by Mokaev in the first minute of their fight.
So it’s not as if Durden has some incredible chin. He doesn’t go flat unconscious like Schnell does, but Durden is breakable.
As far as the matchup, it says a lot that Durden is the favorite here coming in on less than a week’s notice, and frankly, I understand the line.
Durden just feels more capable at this stage. There’s the obvious durability angle when the two trade on the feet, and then Durden has a clear path to landing takedowns as well.
My main hesitations are that A) Durden won’t easily find the KO. Without much volume or a history of winning by KO, there’s a very good chance Schnell can survive and extend the matchup.
And B) Schnell has a decent triangle from the bottom and if Durden isn’t careful, he could find himself on the end of another submission loss. He did fight out of dangerous situations against Hadley though who is likely more threatening than Schnell will be, so I don’t think a triangle submission is extremely concerning, but still something to note.
Schnell also only defends takedowns at 50 percent, and he’s willing to play off his back. Durden won’t easily finish him there or do much on top, most likely, but if he tries to wrestle, he could land another 3-5 takedowns in the fight and earn a fair amount of top control.
I’m actually going to assume he will hunt for the KO though. While it’s being billed as Durden taking a chance on short notice, this is actually a gift for him. He gets the chance to clear away multiple stoppage losses in a row and potentially find a highlight reel knockout in the process.
Whether or not that KO comes to fruition, I’m not sure. I think he has some KO equity of course. But my best guess is that by the second round, Durden will start wrestling and will aim to win minutes, eventually taking a decision.
Schnell will need to submit him in the process, or force a stand-up affair where he can be competitive. If Schnell just stays conscious, he could definitely beat Durden standing. It won’t be dominant as neither guy lands much volume, but that’s the point.
Over three rounds on the feet, Schnell could potentially outland Durden 70-60, or something in that range. He may even have a small chance to hurt Durden as well. I’d still lean toward Durden given the optics and potential for Schnell to die at any moment, but there’s plenty of variance in striking exchanges and it’s at least a path to victory for Schnell.
Plus, on short notice, perhaps Durden isn’t super fresh down the stretch and Schnell can be more impactful as the fight goes on. I generally think the cardio of Durden will be fine though, and his game is better suited to win minutes here.
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On DraftKings, I originally wasn’t planning on having much exposure to this matchup.
Durden has been slotted in at 9.4k, and although I don’t love him, he’s definitely viable.
Not only does he have the narrative upside for a KO in any round, but he can wrestle in volume as well. That’s multiple paths to a ceiling, and therefore, he can be considered at this price.
My fear is really that he chases the KO, in which case, I’d rather bet against him. Even if he hits it and scores 100-110 points, this is a tough range with multiple grappling options, and I think we’ll see a huge score or two. If the knockout comes in the latter rounds, Durden could fail to score 100 points and would easily miss the optimal.
Plus, I just don’t think he’s a great striker and would be willing to fade the KO narrative at this price.
The grappling upside is what intrigues me and scares me more. He’s capable of landing 10 takedowns in a fight, and his career high is 11. Schnell doesn’t defend takedowns well, so Durden could easily land a few.
If I knew he would prioritize wrestling from the start, I’d play him. But there’s a risk he does not, and will therefore not reach a ceiling in an extended bout.
ITD odds aren’t out yet either but Durden will have a good one with the Under 2.5 rounds prop set at -185. Ultimately, he’s a fine target, with paths to a ceiling.
I think the early KO is being a bit overrated though, and there could be more risk with the short notice matchup. The range is very strong and I’ll want exposure to the grapplers as well.
Schnell is still priced at 6.7k which isn’t a major value, shockingly, but I kind of think he’s sneaky.
It’s just that Durden isn’t great, and again is on short notice. Schnell could compete on the feet and Durden can be hurt. Durden can also dive his way into a submission loss, though neither of those outcomes are exceptionally likely.
It’s a tough slate with minimal win equity at the bottom, and we need salary relief. If Schnell simply stays conscious his floor could be alright.
He won’t project well though with minimal KO equity and minimal wrestling equity, and he doesn’t need to be played. You could consider fading with a small portfolio.
I think I like him slightly more than the public will though, especially at the price and given the short notice factor. I wouldn’t mind a sprinkle when you need to punt.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Durden by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Fight Odds: Peek -113, Ashmouz -101
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Peek 8.2k, Asmhouz 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am always down for a Trevor Peek fight and we get to see back in the Octagon against Yanal Ashmouz this weekend.
Peek is always looking to end the fight and is always entertaining. Peek is mostly a striker who throws absolute heat with his hands and he definitely has power. He puts a pace on his opponents and either knocks them dead or breaks them with his pace. He just doesn’t stop.
I don’t think Peek is all that skilled as a striker though (or as a fighter in general), and he isn’t very technical. So he is hittable. He was nearly knocked out on the Contender Series. However, I do think he can win fights at this level with his aggressive nature.
He definitely keeps up a heavy pace that can break guys and he has power to put people out. He knocked out Erick Gonzalez and then beat up Mohammad Yahya to earn his two UFC wins, though both of those opponents are low level.
Peek also mixes in takedowns too. They aren’t all that technical and are more pace reliant, but I like when he mixes them in. He basically just looks to get top position and land ground and pound.
Peek still isn’t all that technical and that is his weakness. I have seen him put in bad spots on the mat and he relies on explosiveness to escape bad positions, which will eventually not work against better grapplers. He ended up getting exposed against Jose Mariscal. He was just the less skilled fighter in that matchup and was taken down four times and even hurt on the feet.
I do think Mariscal is a very underrated grappler though. I mean Mariscal just dominated Damon Jackson on the mat so I do forgive Peek for getting outwrestled by him.
We still saw Peek get taken down four times against Charlie Campbell though and put in bad positions in round three. I still do think Peek is decent at defending takedowns early, and knows basic underhooks and has the ability to explode out of positions. I think he can minimize the grappling of lower level UFC fighters. However, any decent grappler can have success against him.
Peek is still a fun addition to the UFC roster though and he will certainly have fun matchups in general.
Peek will be taking on Yanal Ashmouz. Ashmouz is 1-1 in the UFC and 7-1 professionally. He won his UFC debut by quickly knocking out Sam Patterson. He then lost his last fight to Chris Duncan. He was taken down twice and outlanded 85-35 in significant strikes.
I didn’t really like that performance by Ashmouz. He only attempted one takedown and only attempted 100 strikes which is just not enough offense in general. He did hurt his hand early in the fight though and that arguably prevented him from throwing more offense.
In other fights, I have seen Ashmouz strike a bit and grapple. He is a decent wrestler, especially defensively, and I think he is okay at landing takedowns and riding out top position. However, I don’t think he is a good wrestler either.
Ashmouz is okay on the feet. He is fairly technical and can land some leg kicks and occasional power shots. I do worry about his volume though, and I just don’t think he is going to be a good striker in the UFC.
Overall, Ashmouz is a guy who at least looks somewhat well-rounded. However, I don’t think he is good at anything. He does have strong cardio and seems tough though.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Peek is more trustworthy on the feet just because I know he will be aggressive and attempt strikes. Ashmouz may honestly be a little more technical, but I think Peek will be the more aggressive party in this matchup and will be landing more often.
I am honestly going to just pick Peek because I think he is more willing to engage as a striker in this matchup, and will attempt a lot of offense.
I do think Ashmouz can have some wrestling success here. However, he may not even attempt to wrestle. The guys who have had wrestling success vs Peek attempted 10 and 12 takedowns. I really don’t think Ashmouz will do that. So Ashmouz may not wrestle enough, choose to strike with Peek, and lose.
Furthermore, I am not even sure Ashmouz will easily outwrestle Peek if he chooses to wrestle. I do think Peek can use his underhook game and explode out of some positions if taken down. Sure, Ashmouz may have some occasional success if he wrestles. However, I still see Peek at least defending to a degree and landing his shots on the feet. So I am actually going to pick Peek here. I just trust him to attempt more offense here.
Look, Peek is still super unskilled in general and he has been hurt before. He is a sloppy fighter so Ashmouz navigating himself to a win is surely possible. However, I know Peek will look to let his offense go and that is enough for me to pick him.
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On DraftKings, this matchup is a bit odd as in the past, we’ve seen really heavy lines on Peek fights to end inside the distance.
He is super aggressive, but lacks defense, and typically rates out as a kill or be killed option. But he’s also proven to be so tough that when he’s losing, he’s at least staying conscious and fighting back.
So now we have a matchup that’s actually -125 to go the full distance, which will hurt the fantasy projection on both sides.
Peek produces a lot of offense, yes, but we mostly care about the offense leading to damage. His career high in five fights is 61 sig. strikes. So in a decision, Peek can easily bust unless he’s landing many takedowns or also scoring a knockdown.
Asmhouz as the opponent can have a lot of success, landing strikes, landing takedowns, but if those don’t result in a finish, I’m not sure it’s going to lead to a big ceiling.
Ultimately that’s what makes analyzing the matchup tough.
I lean toward targeting it as a whole though. Peek is only +265 to win ITD but we know he will come forward and fight aggressively. Both sides can wrestle, and I think the winner is likely to land some takedowns.
With mid-range prices on a card that needs salary relief, this feels like one decent option to target which at least carries upside. And these fighters may not be exceptionally highly owned either.
I wouldn’t mind being above the field on Peek for these reasons, though likely not massively as there’s still risk in the matchup and in an extended fight.
Ashmouz may be a really strong target and should be less owned than Peek, so he’ll carry leverage as well. He’s more risky in what we can expect, but because of Peek’s style, Ashmouz will have to produce offense if he wins. You could even argue his upside is safer in a win, given the pace his opponent will push.
I don’t necessarily prioritize Ashmouz but he could be a bit sneaky in this range with a +245 ITD line and wrestling equity, and I wouldn’t mind mixing him in or being a bit above the field as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Peek by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Rongzhu vs. Chris Padilla
Fight Odds: Rongzhu -246, Padilla +205
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Rongzhu 8.9k, Padilla 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
He broke the slate as a late-notice replacement in his UFC debut, and I’m curious to see whether Chris Padilla was a flash in the pan, or whether he can have continued success at this level against the young Rongzhu.
Rongzhu is actually in his second stint in the UFC, as he just won the finals of the Road to UFC competition in February. He had previously debuted in 2021 and had lost two of his three bouts before getting kicked to the curb.
But it’s worth noting that Rongzhu is only 24 years old, meaning he was only 21 when he was first taking fights in the UFC. He came from the Performance Institute in China and I’m hopeful that we’ll see a more polished version of him this weekend.
Looking back, Rongzhu just didn’t stand out anywhere. He was outstruck at distance by a weak Kazula Vargas, and again by a more competent opponent in Ignacio Bahamones. His only win was a wrestling based victory over Brandon Jenkins, who is also low level.
Rongzhu looks like a strong athlete, and he’s aggressive at times, but his striking was a step behind and he didn’t prove himself as a finishing threat on the mat.
In his most recent victories, I’ve seen some promise. It’s always hard to say as he’s still fighting mediocre competition, but for example, Rongzhu was able to outland his semifinal opponent 123 to 82 at distance over three rounds.
In the finals, he faced a wrestler who shot TWENTY FIVE takedowns, landing four of them. But Rongzhu sprawled on a lot of shots, he scooted back to the cage and got up pretty efficiently. And ultimately, he had the better gas tank and was able to hurt and submit that opponent late.
I’m not convinced Rongzhu is a great prospect, but I think he’s a respectable fighter. He has some power in his punches and seems somewhat explosive. The volume upside looks better now than I’ve seen in the past.
His wrestling and grappling is at least OK. He can defend takedowns and shoot some of his own. And his cardio looks decent. I’ll project him as a capable round winner at the UFC level but it’s tough to know if there’s any real ceiling. We’ll see.
Chris Padilla was a tough fighter to analyze when he made his UFC debut against James Llontop in 2024, partially because there’s just not much recent footage of his matchups.
He’s 14-6 professionally with seven knockouts and five submissions, but he mostly looks like a grappler. He has fought some lower level UFC veterans like Gabe Green, Jason Gonzalez and Justin Jaynes.
Mostly, we viewed him as a fighter most capable of winning with early grappling success. I noted that there was one sequence in an old fight of his where he took his opponent’s back, and in that, my guess was that his grappling skills were competent.
However, it’s just tough to be sure outside of that. He nearly knocked out Jason Gonzalez for example but got tired, and was beaten up and TKOd himself later in the fight.
And in his UFC debut, Llontop was having early striking success while Padilla was able to land three takedowns on three attempts. The latest one allowed him to transition to the back in the final seconds of the first round, and immediately find the RNC.
It wasn’t a good look for Llontop, but I thought in that round, Padilla again showed wrestling promise and a good back take.
That’s how I’m going to analyze him for now – a fighter who can grapple but will likely need early success. Striking volume, durability and cardio are all question marks and probably not strong points for Padilla, but I would like to see more and learn more.
As far as the matchup, I’m not overwhelmingly confident, but I think Rongzhu is the better athlete, more powerful striker and likely the guy to have more success in an extended fight.
Padilla on the other hand will probably shoot takedowns early. If he gets them, he can potentially threaten with a choke.
I did like Rongzhu’s recent defense though, and my guess is that he can neutralize Padilla early. If he can, potentially Rongzhu’s pressure will eventually break Padilla, and lead to a mid-round TKO. That outcome seems pretty possible.
Rongzhu can also wrestle so perhaps he shoots for takedowns at some point. He landed six in his win over Jenkins. I just don’t think that’s the most optimal path to win and he hasn’t wrestled a ton in recent fights, so I lean toward Rongzhu wanting a stand-up affair.
There’s a lot of variance here with the unknowns and specifics of each guy, but I lean toward Rongzhu as a whole. Pressure, athleticism, power, and the ability to fight three rounds is probably enough here. Padilla will likely give him some sort of a grappling test early though.
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On DraftKings, you can play Padilla if you want at 7.3k.
He’s coming off a 113-point score, which is partially due to his style. I don’t think a win for Padilla is boring or without grappling, so if he gets his hand raised again, we could see another optimal score.
He is +400 to win ITD which isn’t great, but the majority of his pro wins have come ITD. Just due to wrestling upside alone, I think Padilla can contend for the optimal with any sort of victory.
I don’t love the play though as I’m just hesitant to buy into that debut performance and how it will translate here. He certainly won’t be a priority for me, and will simply be a fighter I mix into my portfolio in large fields. For that purpose I don’t mind him though as there aren’t many great options below the mid-range.
Rongzhu is priced up to 8.9k which is a bit disappointing as I might have gone in heavier if he was cheaper.
At 8.9k, there is a lot of risk. He may not wrestle, he may not land tons of volume. He may have to defend early which means even in a mid-round TKO, his upside could be limited.
And in any real extended fight, Rongzhu is likely to bust.
The best case scenario is that he defends takedowns immediately and then we see he has a clear edge on the feet. That could lead to a semi-dominant early round or two, with a mid-round TKO and a big score.
He’s also -110 to win ITD which is pretty strong, though the fight is still -195 to go Over 1.5 rounds.
Given the matchup and price, I like but don’t love Rongzhu. There are fighters cheaper than him with clear paths to a finish. There are fighters priced above him who are more likely to dominate.
Actually, he might just be best as someone who will fall through the cracks. There is a path to a TKO win and decent metrics, but I don’t think he will be a priority for the field. In that sense, I like Rongzhu as a semi-contrarian and pivot option within this range, and I don’t mind some shots on him this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rongzhu by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Isaac Dulgarian vs. Brendon Marotte
Fight Odds: Dulgarian -3000, Marotte +1300
Odds to Finish: -2000
DraftKings Salaries: Dulgarian 9.9k, Marotte 6.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am excited to see Isaac Dulgarian return to the cage this weekend against Brendon Marotte. Isaac Dulgarian will be looking to rebound after losing a competitive decision against the very tough to grapple Christian Rodriguez.
Dulgarian comes from an impressive wrestling pedigree. He is one of the best high school wrestlers in the state of Kansas’ history. He was a 3-time state champion and holds the most career wins and takedowns in Kansas. He had over 1100 takedowns in his high school career and the second closest to him was 700. So yeah, this guy can wrestle his ass off. He was also a Fargo All-American in both freestyle and greco which is the most prestigious national high school wrestling tournament that there is.
Dulgarian then wrestled at a division 2 school and took 2nd in the national tournament as a true freshman which is impressive. Given his high school credentials, I am surprised Dulgarian didn’t wrestle Division 1 as he was clearly capable. My guess is he didn’t have the grades to go Division 1 which is common (e.g., Jon Jones).
Furthermore, I couldn’t find any history on Dulgarian’s collegiate wrestling career after his freshman year. My guess is he dropped out of school and pursued MMA, but I am not sure.
Regardless of what happened in the rest of his wrestling career, Dulgarian is surely a good wrestler and his tape shows it. He took Francis Marshall down in his UFC debut and absolutely obliterated him in the first round for a TKO finish. To that point, almost all of Dulgarian’s fights have looked the exact same. He took his opponents down with complete ease and quickly finished them in the first round.
Dulgarian then faced Christian Rodriguez and lost a close fight. He took Rodriguez down in round 1 and absolutely dominated him. He was then winning the beginning of round 2, slowed down and lost the rest of the fight.
Dulgarian did slow down vs Rodriguez and his striking does look limited. However, I really do not think it was that bad of a performance. I like Dulgarian in general but actually picked Rodriguez in the matchup. So I wasn’t shocked or anything. Rodriguez is uniquely skilled to make a guy like Dulgarian slow down. Rodriguez is constantly working from bottom to ensure the top man has to use techniques and energy to hold him down. Dulgarian also didn’t get finished which was a good sign as well.
Obviously Dulgarian could have had better cardio in that matchup vs Rodriguez. However, I generally don’t think he will gas in all matchups. I also don’t think a ton of guys will weather the storm of Dulgarian like Rodriguez did. So I still think Dulgarian is going to have a fine career. My expectations are that he will continue to feast on any average grapplers or below-average grapplers in this division.
Dulgarian will be taking on Brendan Marotte. So Marotte isn’t very good and was last seen in the UFC in 2023, getting finished by Terrance McKinney in 20 seconds.
Marotte is 8-2 professionally with almost all of his wins coming against poor competition. Marotte is kind of just a scrappy freestyle fighter and isn’t really good at anything. He just isn’t a good athlete either. He is a stereotypical regional fighter and just isn’t very high level.
Marotte isn’t the best grappler, especially defensively. I have seen him taken down and mounted and put in really bad spots. He does at least try to explode out of positions and doesn’t give up. However, he simply has defensive grappling issues and will get exposed at this level. He isn’t bad on top, he can take the back, but I don’t think he is great.
On the feet, Marotte is just scrappy and isn’t awful. He can be aggressive at times and land a variety of strikes. I don’t think he is talented or technical though and is reliant on toughness and aggressiveness more than anything. I do think he looked a bit better in recent fights though and he is only 26, so perhaps he is improving and turns out a bit better than I rate him now.
I think Marotte’s best attribute is that he is tough, won’t give up, and can at least fight decently hard later in fights.
As far as this matchup goes, Dulgarian is a massive favorite and definitely should be. Dulgarian is leagues above Marotte as a grappler. Marotte has definitely never faced a grappler and wrestler like Dulgarian.
My guess is Dulgarian goes out there, lands takedowns early, and finishes Marotte on the mat. I just don’t think Marotte is talented enough to hang with Dulgarian. Dulgarian also just always chooses to wrestle as well so I don’t think there is much risk that Dulgarian deviates from his path to victory.
So yeah, Dulgarian should absolutely crush Marotte, and I would be surprised if anything else happened.
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On DraftKings, we have a rare 9.9k price tag as Dulgarian is lined at -3000 or heavier to win on some books.
It needs to be said from the start, and I’m not a math genius, but it’s going to be tough to fit Dulgarian in. He’s (I think?) the most expensive fighter ever, at least in the six-fighter lineup era.
If Dulgarian goes out there and smashes Marotte, and scores 110 points, he’s probably not optimal. I don’t have a perfect number that would make him optimal, but that number will depend on how the rest of the slate shakes out.
This slate has several legit fights and legit finishing threats, so it rates out even worse for Dulgarian’s chances. I think there’s merit to fading him completely based on pricing.
With that said, Dulgarian should smash. He’s -182 to win in round one. And considering that will come with grappling, Dulgarian could easily surpass 120 points in a win.
Honestly, he has first-minute QWB equity too. He could take Marotte down in 10 seconds, and beat the crap out of him for a stoppage. So I think 130+ is on the table.
Dulgarian also scored 122 in his UFC debut which came in round one, but not in the first minute. So 120+ is very possible as well.
I suppose 100-110 is on the table too, if he simply lands one quick td, gets a stoppage but outside of one minute. Marotte may literally be able to put up zero resistance which could be trouble if Dulgarian doesn’t finish in 60 seconds.
Point being – nothing is a guarantee here, though I do think Dulgarian smashes. That smash could lead to a subpar score, a good score but not an optimal one given the price tag, or potentially something in the 120s or 130s which would give him a chance.
If I’m creating lineups and I have the ability to pay up to 9.9k, I am going to play Dulgarian. He has a higher ceiling than anyone else on the slate and is the safest fighter on the slate by far.
Forcing him in is the more difficult question, and I don’t think you need to do it. It’s potentially smart not to. But he’s a very appetizing option with a legit ceiling and I’m expecting a great fantasy result from him in this matchup.
Marotte at 6.3k is a fade. He’ll obviously provide savings and leverage and potentially compete with the optimal in a win. Maybe he has a striking and/or cardio advantage. None of that will matter if he can’t stop takedowns though.
He’s +1600 to win ITD and is one of the biggest underdogs of all-time. I just would rather pay up for more win equity and outside of a dart throw for fun with a massive portfolio, I won’t be considering Marotte this weekend.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dulgarian by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
Felipe dos Santos vs. Andre Lima
Fight Odds: Lima -171, dos Santos +147
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Lima 8.5k, dos Santos 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Andre Lima’s a Contender Series alum from this past season who’s made good on his first two fights within the promotion – he’s 9-0 as a pro. Felipe dos Santos was supposed to fight on the Contender Series last year, but ended up getting signed as short notice fill in a few weeks later against Manel Kape – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Lima comes from a kickboxing background where he was a champion in his native Brazil.
Our tape on him isn’t vast but in what we have, he works in a more traditional, marauding striking style where he likes to control the center and dictate exchanges.
However, he hasn’t been an output machine necessarily, but his shots take an impact as he’ll dig the legs and body with kicks in addition to some stronger blitzing straights. As a result, five of his nine pro wins have come via KO although not all at distance.
Defensively, I think he’s decent when he’s the guy going forward in being able to keep a higher shelling guard, but he did struggle a bit more when put on the back foot in his UFC debut by Severino – the distance strikes were close at 31-29 in favor of Severino, but I’d also say that Lima was landing more impactful shots.
He ate some good shots as well, so he does appear to be a pretty durable fighter but once again, we’re dealing in a smaller sample size.
He followed that up with a more traditional, surgical performance where he just picked apart Raposo over the course of 15 minutes – once again, the fight was fought a slower pace where the distance strikes were 49-32 in favor of Lima, but he was evidently winning the exchanges where he did specifically well in targeting the legs of Raposo.
Overall, Lima appears to be a quality striker and has power for 125 lbs. which is a good attribute to have, but I’d still like to see him in more distance exchanges and when pressured effectively.
Dos Santos is a lankier flyweight out of the Chute Boxe team in Brazil – a camp that has turned some heads in recent years.
He hasn’t always been the most aggressive guy throughout his shorter career, but we’ve definitely seen a higher work rate recently, where he’s been possessing an aggressive style and really committing to his strikes – jump knees, step in elbows, spinning attacks and blitzing straights.
Most impressively, he threw 310 strikes in his fight against Kape on shorter notice where he actually competed with Kape and arguably won a round – the distance strikes were 94-92 but Kape was landing the more meaningful and impactful strikes over the course of the fight.
But it’s in that Chute Boxe style to where he does leave himself available, and he also ate over 100 strikes in his last LFA fight as well. We’ve seen him clipped a few times, but he’s shown to be a durable guy to date – backed up by the fact that he took Kape’s best shots who’s arguably the biggest hitter at flyweight right now.
We did see a slower paced fight on the feet in his last outing against Altamirano where the distance strikes were 31 to 29 in favor of Dos Santos. But striking minutes were really close as it was the outside game of Altamirano which dropped that volume.
Overall, he can produce fun fights on the feet and does bring a style that can cause issues to certain opponents. But it’s also a beatable style at the same time with the right guy across from him. As noted, he’s not necessarily running away on the numbers in his fights despite doing more most of the time.
How it plays out: The matchup dynamic is pretty interesting here that leaves me scratching my head a bit because I could see a variety of different scenarios. In totality, I think Lima is the more polished striker of the two who probably hits a bit harder as well. At the same time, I’m not sure how this all plays out. We could see Lima’s technicality showing through to where he’s able to drop the output of Dos Santos, similar to Altamirano in the last fight, but also be effective with the hands. But we could also see some of the historic pressure that Dos Santos can provide take Lima out of his element because he hasn’t fought anyone who has the capability to throw upwards of 300 strikes. So, if that’s what the fight turns into, how does Lima fair in a higher volume war? I don’t know but I have some suspicions that it won’t be the most advantageous type of fight for him generally.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Despite the kickboxing base of Lima, he’s a recently crowned BJJ black belt.
We’ve seen the floor come into play pro and con in three of his four most recent fights. He’s not a guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes but he has mixed it in and has mainly excelled from the body lock to hit trips, throws or foot sweeps.
He’s also shown the ability to pass and take the back although he still reps no pro wins via submission. Lima has jumped a few guillotines as well which I’m not the biggest fan of. His control has generally been decent, but he has lost position in attacking things before.
Defensively, it’s a little shaky for him as I’ve seen him show some good down blocking/sprawls at times, but he also gave up five TDs in his debut to Severino – he only conceded three minutes of control though, so he was able to work up on stuff but arguably lost the 1st round and was appearing to be on his way to losing the 2nd.
He’s spent some time in bottom in another regional fight as well, but was able to work back up.
Most recently, Raposa went 1/2 on TDs but Lima used an effective over hook to work up quickly on the lone TD Raposo landed. It was honestly an odd gameplan from Raposo to only shoot two TDs given his base and that his primary path against Lima was on the floor.
Overall, Lima’s a guy who will probably realize more floor success against less competent opponents, but I think he may struggle here against more capable wrestlers of a UFC level – time will tell.
Dos Santos is a more recently crowned BJJ purple belt with three submission wins, all within the guard.
He shot some solid double legs back in LFA where he landed nine total TDs, but got less than two minutes of control at the same time. He’s lost position from top on the regionals in multiple fights too, struggling with ground control in certain capacities as well.
Defensively, he hasn’t been very difficult to take down as guys can get to his hips and his aggressive style on the feet additionally leaves him open to reactionary based shots. He does have an aggressive guard and can force scrambles, but he’s also a guy that will concede multiple minutes on bottom at times trying to attack things as well.
Most recently, he was taken down nine times on 11 attempts by Altamirano but conceded only five total minutes of control, so he was able to work up. But in what was a tighter striking fight on the feet, it was the wrestling from Altamirano that was the difference maker in my eyes to what should have won Altamirano the fight despite the judges giving it to dos Santos.
Overall, from what we have to go on, dos Santos is a poor offensive and defensive wrestler but has a semi-capable jiu-jitsu game.
How it plays out: I’m not a big fan of the defensive wrestling of either guy and both have shown some guard playing elements at times. But I would lean to Lima being the better offensive wrestler and potentially the better grappler in the matchup, despite him having no submission wins and dos Santos having three. But it’s also doubtful that Lima is going to shoot over 10 TDs like Altamirano did in the last fight and quite frankly, I’m not sure he has the cardio to wrestle in volume like that anyway. I would still lean to Lima having more ground upside though, early more specifically.
Interesting fight that I don’t have a strong opinion on given what’s run through in the breakdown, primarily because I don’t have a great read on the pace of the fight and how Lima will fare in a higher paced outing, or even if the fight will be higher paced or not. But my lean is still to Lima because I think he’s the slightly better fighter.
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On DraftKings, Lima is a tough sell even at 8.5k, and I don’t think he’s going to be very popular coming off a 51 point decision win.
That type of performance wasn’t shocking to me, and it’s something we called out in past breakdowns. Lima just doesn’t push a pace, and isn’t a high-volume wrestler, and that’s always a risk from a fantasy standpoint.
The positive here is he’s facing a weak defensive opponent. Dos Santos has absorbed 112 strikes and a KD in his debut, and he gave up nine takedowns to Altamirano last time out. Any decent fighter who pushes a pace can produce a lot of offense against dos Santos.
Lima could replicate it, but it’s still a challenge to project. Volume alone won’t be enough so I think you’re hoping he turns into a wrestler and gets an additional 3-4 takedowns. Perhaps in a decision that could be enough.
Otherwise, you’re hoping for a finish. Lima is +275 to win ITD which isn’t great. And there are plenty of viable options priced nearby.
Ultimately, I think I will have to prioritize others. Lima has some upside given the matchup and I respect his striking talent, but it feels risky to invest a lot hoping for a quick KO. He will likely be contrarian though, which has its benefits, but I do prefer other fighters priced nearby.
Dos Santos at 7.7k may honestly be preferred, as we are desperate for salary relief and he carries win equity.
I’m not a huge fan of dos Santos as a talent or in this matchup, so that’s worth noting as well. Lima is defensively sound and will slow the pace down. So it’s not as if dos Santos easily wins or has a great path to a ceiling.
But he’s +147 to win at 7.7k, and can fight aggressively at times. Depending on how the rest of the slate shakes out, having any sort of winner in the mid 7s would be worth it.
I do prefer many other fighters for ceiling though, and dos Santos is only +415 to win ITD. It wouldn’t be wrong to prioritize some of the grapplers nearby, for example.
Dos Santos may have a better floor though, and a reasonable chance to take a close decision. He has secondary viability because of it but I wouldn’t get too carried away.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lima by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Yizha vs. Gabriel Santos
Fight Odds: Santos -264, Yizha +218
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.8k, Yizha 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Gabriel Santos got signed to the UFC this past year as a short notice fill in on the heels of winning a vacant 145 lb tournament back in the LFA. He’s had a rocky start to his UFC run but has been booked against a couple tough opponents – he’s 0-2 in the UFC and 10-2 as a pro. Yizha is a part of the newer crop of Chinese talent who lost in the Road to UFC finals this past year. But he went back to the series where he’s since gone 3-0 and will be getting another crack at the UFC – he’s 25-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Santos is a grappler by base but has shown decent things in the stand up, more so in his recent fights as I thought his stand up looked a lot shakier a handful of years back.
He’s not a volume machine per say but is decent, throws sound straight punches and will end combos with hooks.
I would say his best attribute is probably his accuracy. He finished his last two regional opponents via strikes who were respectable fighters – one via head kick and one via a body shot. He also buckled Onama a few times in the last outing.
However, he’s not the fastest guy in my opinion and is liable defensively.
We saw him get touched up and hurt badly early in the Barbosa fight but to his credit, he hung tough and was able to pick up a win there.
He also started a bit slow against Delano where Delano found earlier success, but Santos started to find a bit more of a groove as the fight progressed which eventually led to a stoppage.
He got out struck by Murphy in his debut but held his own and made a good account of himself, especially considering short notice circumstances and the quality of opponent.
Most recently, he largely fought well against Onama, winning the first round unanimously, but Onama started to get his timing through the fight where those sit down, pocket defensive tendencies of Santos eventually caught up with him andOnama was able to put him down late in the 2nd round.
Overall, he’s a respectable striker as a base grappler but will need to up his defense now that he’s fighting at the UFC level.
Yizha is a grappler by base to where we haven’t seen a ridiculous amount of him standing, but enough to make an assessment.
I don’t want to say he looks uncomfortable on the feet because that’s not the right way to describe it, but he looks relatively green.
His volume has traditionally been on the lower end, he’ll overextend on shots and hasn’t been much of a distance power threat with only five of his 25 pro wins coming via strikes, and a handful of those coming on the ground – the last guy he KO’d was all the way back in 2019.
His most notable striking performance came a few fights back against Kim where the majority of the fight was standing, but he still only out landed his opponent 50-40 at distance. He also only defended at 49% in the fight.
The strike counts against Lee were competitive as both guys didn’t throw a ton, but Yizha wasn’t reacting well to the strikes from Lee when Lee was landing flush. Lee is probably the best striker he’s fought to date – it was ultimately those eye catching exchanges that lost him the fight.
Overall, I’d like to see a bit more from Yizha before making any definitive claims, but my projection is that he’s going to struggle on the feet at the UFC level against more capable strikers.
How it plays out: Despite some of the flaws we’ve seen from Santos standing, he should win the stand up here at a sizable clip. I don’t think Yizha has the power to hurt Santos and Santos is superior not only technically but also in terms of work rate and power back himself. I mean we’ve seen Santos go toe-to-toe standing with guys like Elvis Brenner, Lerone Murphy and David Onama so I don’t see a ton of upside to Yizha unless he’s able to find some errant shot.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Santos is a BJJ brown belt under the Gracie Barra system but trains out of the Chute Boxe camp in Brazil.
I’m not in love with his wrestling entries always but he’s shown a respectable single and double leg when timed properly. But he has landed TDs in multiple fights and found ground success in his career with four wins coming via submission.
However, he’s had struggles submitting guys in recent years when he’s had armbar or back positions – nonetheless has still found himself in advantageous grappling positions.
But he has also lost position on multiple occasions and will play guard at times which I don’t love necessarily – he does have an active guard though which has allowed him to create space and work up.
His TDD is still semi questionable as he hasn’t faced many TDAs in his career – guys are generally getting on top of him from reversals or lost Santos positions.
Overall, he appears to be a competent wrestler/grappler but nothing of a crazy level in my eyes as he has some tendencies I still don’t like.
As noted, Yizha comes from a grappling background where the floor has given him his primary career successes to date.
His pure wrestling isn’t very good though as he’s only landing his TDs at 32% through his last six fights. He serves as more of a hustler in the sense that he’ll shoot double digit TDs, so it’s more of a law of large numbers game with him.
But he struggles to really flatten opponents or maintain dominant positions at the same.
He took the back of his first Road to UFC opponent and finished quickly but his last two subs have come via guard armbars. In total, 14 of his 25 wins have come via submission though so that’s primarily how he’s getting the job done.
His defensive wrestling also hasn’t been very good though, stuffing at 59%, but he does have an aggressive guard as noted and is a guy that will look to create scrambles as well.
His style does profile as one that could be locked down by better positional players at the UFC level.
Overall, despite Yizha’s historic success, I still don’t rate him all that highly on the ground, but he does bring a style that can be difficult to deal with if opponents don’t come proper.
How it plays out: This is where the fight could become more interesting. Given the disadvantage Yizha will be at on the feet coupled with his general historics, he’ll be looking to push TDs here. He has the capabilities to take down a guy like Santos multiple times in my opinion as well, but I think he’s also going to struggle to control Santos given the guard threat that he is and with Yizha not being a great control player. Conversely, I can see upside to Santos here as well either in scrambles or in generally being able to take Yizha down who’s TDD isn’t very good. I just think there’s some parallels between both guys in not being effective control artists to where the floor most likely plays pretty scrambly. I highly doubt Yizha is subbing Santos, but I’d also be a bit curious to see what happens if Santos gains dominant positions here. The assumption would be that Yizha is most likely fine, but we haven’t had to see him defensively grapple all that much.
Despite me seeing scenarios where this fight “could” play competitively, I think this is a get right spot for Gabriel Santos. I’m just not a huge fan of this new crop of Chinese talent and Yizha’s a considerable step down in competition from the guys he’s been fighting. There’s a substantial argument that Santos beat Murphy in his short notice debut who just kicked the shit out of Edson Barboza over five rounds not that long ago. Additionally, if he doesn’t get bonked by Onama, there’s a very real world where he goes on to win a competitive decision in that fight. It’s also been 14 months since we’ve seen Santos and he’s only 27 years old so he’s still at the age where large leaps can be made fight to fight. I like Santos a healthy amount here.
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On DraftKings, I don’t mind Santos but he likely falls through the cracks a bit given the strength of the favorite range this week.
He’s priced at 8.8k and has a poor box score due to his back-to-back UFC losses, so I’m not sure the public will rush to play him. He also doesn’t have one clear path to a ceiling.
Early KO? Early sub? Grappling domination? Those are the main ways to do it and I don’t think he’s extremely likely for any.
With that said, Yizha is on paper a big step down from the quality of competition Santos has been facing. Santos may have a sizable standing advantage for the first time, so perhaps there is some KO equity.
I don’t think a submission comes easily, but Santos has outwrestled better opponents, and Yizha doesn’t really defend takedowns. So Santos landing four takedowns is on the table too.
He just might not want to wrestle as Yizha likes to grapple and has a dangerous guard. So it’s hard to project.
I don’t mind Santos. He’s +135 to win ITD and may be semi-contrarian. I do think he has paths to upside even if they’re not obvious. I don’t mind him as a mix in, though ultimately, I doubt I will end up aggressively overweight.
Yizha at 7.4k has upside within his style. If he wins, it’s from a KO (very unlikely), a guard armbar, or takedowns and control.
Typically, those paths are going to score well. I do think a random guard sub is possible though I never bet on those outcomes. Takedowns are definitely possible though I still find it unlikely it actually carries him to a win.
If you want to buy into the ceiling for a lower owned dog, that’s fine. He’s +625 to win ITD and isn’t as high pedigree of a prospect as Santos, so he’s not going to project very well.
With a small portfolio, I may shy away completely and just bet on Santos being better in the matchup. With a larger portfolio, given the aggressive grappling style of Yizha, he’s a fine tournament sprinkle.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jacqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Fight Odds: Amorim -309, Demopoulos +250
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Amorim 9.1k, Demopoulos 7.1k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here between Jacqueline Amorim and Vanessa Demopolous.
Amorim is a BJJ black belt and has a great track record in big time BJJ tournaments. She took 2nd in the black belt division of the IBJJF world no-gi championships in 2016.
Amorim is now dedicated to MMA and is 8-1 professionally. She made her UFC debut against Sam Hughes and won round one with dominant grappling positions. She took Hughes down, body triangled her, and nearly submitted her. Then Amorim gassed horribly, started pulling guard, and just got beat up on her back for the next two rounds.
Her next UFC fight was a dominant grappling based win against Conejo Ruiz. She then quickly submitted Cory McKenna in round one via arm bar in her most recent win.
Most of Amorim’s career before the UFC was spent in LFA where she was the LFA champion. Amorim’s fights have generally all been the same. She has finished most of her opponents in round one, generally by submission. She generally looks to take opponents down and pass their guard and submit them. It has worked well for her thus far. Her BJJ looks good which is no surprise given her credentials.
I think she is an interesting prospect and will continue to have grappling based success in the UFC. I think she can quickly submit a lot of girls in this division.
I just hate Amorim’s cardio though man. She had nothing for 10 minutes against Sam Hughes. Furthermore, she has no striking and looks to pull guard when she is too tired to land takedowns. When she is tired and on her back, she looks to have nothing either so she can be held down. I basically think Amorim is going to make a living in this division by dominating early with her grappling. However, she will probably lose when she faces anyone who can resist her or survive early.
Amorim will be taking on Vanessa Demopolous. I mostly consider Vanessa to be a BJJ player / opportunist. I don’t really think she has the striking or wrestling to win rounds in the UFC. However, she can close distance and hit hard occasionally on the feet.
Vanessa has some solid submissions (and a few submission wins in her career), but I don’t expect them to work as she gets steps up in competition. She arm barred Juarez after being dropped, so a random WMMA guard sub is always a possibility for her against bad fighters. She did at least land a couple of takedowns in her matchup against Maria Oliveira and got some control time, but it was against a low level opponent and I am not buying her offensive wrestling going forward against anyone competent.
Vanessa doesn’t really have good wrestling defensively either, so she can be taken down and she is going to struggle getting the fight down to the mat. In her Contender Series fight against Cory McKenna, she was taken down one time and controlled for 11:07 which is awful.
When Vanessa is on her back, she just plays guard, does not try to work up and goes for submissions so she is a huge liability to lose rounds off her back. She defends takedowns at 30 percent which is awful. She does not have good TDD and she also just lays on her back so she is a recipe for disaster.
I also do not like Vanessa’s striking. She lands 3.98 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.69 in return. She just does not have much defense and can be tagged clean. I do think she has a decent leg kick and power. She is capable of just going crazy and landing something big and will at least be aggressive at times. However, I still don’t think her striking is suited to win rounds. She is very tough though and will fight hard on the feet for 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, I definitely think Amorim is at a massive wrestling advantage early. When fresh, Amorim should be able to land takedowns whenever she wants here. Amorim is also super dangerous on top and she very well may submit Vanessa.
Vanessa has never been submitted in her pro career and has decent guard retention. However, I think Amorim is a great passer and has a very good chance at a quick submission. It is what I am going to pick to happen.
I also don’t think Vanessa’s get ups or TDD is very good. So I don’t know if Amorim will gas as easily as she did against Hughes if this fight gets extended. Hughes really makes grapplers work while Vanessa may just lay on her back and not try to work up, which can probably allow Amorim to float on top and be comfortable and conserve some energy.
I still can’t get those last two rounds of Amorim and Hughes out of my head though. If Vanessa just happens to survive, I do think she is a better striker than Amorim with better cardio. She could honestly maybe even take down a tired Amorim down and get top position.
Amorim was literally lifeless against Hughes. Seeing a fighter gas like that always makes me nervous and it is probably going to happen again. So Vanessa may weather the early storm and win this fight. Just the fact that Vanessa has never been submitted before could really come in handy here. So I do think Vanessa could win and she is a decent live betting opportunity.
Regardless of what happens though, I think Amorim is going to dominate early and has a great chance to finish Vanessa. So I will pick that to happen.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest in the matchup and I’ve been targeting Amorim every step of the way thus far.
I got burned by her in her UFC debut, but she’s made up for it with a couple of strong scores in recent fights. She just fights with a style to score well on DK in wins. She’s an aggressive early grappler with finishing ability.
However, another fade opportunity will come soon. Tim laid out the issues but even in her most recent win, Amorim pulled guard immediately. I am pretty confident she’ll get into a matchup soon that extends, where she ends up on her back and loses rounds.
It’s possible this is that matchup, but Demopoulos isn’t great. Amorim should be able to get on top and shouldn’t get as tired.
I think the most likely paths to victory for Amorim are an early takedown with a submission, or several takedowns and lots of control over 15 minutes. Both have potential to score well and/or produce an optimal result at 9.1k, but neither is a lock.
For example, since she pulled guard in her last sub win, she only scored 91 points. That won’t be enough on this slate at 9.1k.
And she’s actually only +200 to win ITD, which is poor for the price. Amorim won’t rate out especially well because of that weak ITD number, and she doesn’t need to be prioritized.
This range is quite strong as well, with options both above her and below her. I wouldn’t even be surprised if she gets overlooked to a degree in this range.
I still consider her a decent target. She saves salary off the top end, with grappling and finishing equity. And it’s a good matchup for her to succeed. Sometimes, just being the better grappler can lead to submissions, so I wouldn’t count her out of a finish.
I probably won’t be heavy on Amorim as I want to spread out my exposure, but I don’t mind her in this matchup and I like her generally as a fantasy asset.
Demopoulos is a viable punt this week at 7.1k, though the most realistic scenario is that she loses and busts.
If she’s losing, she’ll be held down and won’t score many points. She’s also not a great wrestler or striker so it’s not a great spot to bet on.
But it’s women’s MMA, and Amorim has cardio issues. Demopoulos could survive, and end up on top by round two, and maybe that’s enough. It could lead to an awkward decision win, which may be enough on this slate.
We’re desperate for salary relief, so I wouldn’t rule out Demopoulos even if she doesn’t have a great ceiling on paper with a +625 ITD line.
Bottom line – Demopoulos isn’t a great fighter or a great play. There’s at least a narrative based path to victory for her in a fight that could extend. I won’t mind playing her a bit to open up salary relief but there are still better win equity options priced above.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amorim by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Andre Petroski vs. Dylan Budka
Fight Odds: Petroski -276, Budka +227
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Petroski 9.3k, Budka 6.9k
Weight Class: 185
Andre Petroski will get a quick turnaround after winning cleanly in July, and this time he’ll be matched up against a wrestler in Dylan Budka.
We’ve covered Petroski fairly in-depth over the years, and fairly accurately as well, though that’s not to say he’s ever been a fighter I’ve been high on from a talent standpoint.
Petroski won five consecutive fights to open his UFC career, after falling short on The Ultimate Fighter against Bryan Battle. Three of those victories came inside the distance, where Petroski was able to display some strong wrestling and grappling skills.
However, that run of excellent results pushed Petroski into a tougher tier of competition, which led him to suffer back-to-back knockout losses to Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun.
Both outcomes were a bit odd as well. Pereira landed one clean shot in the first minute that dropped Petroski and forced him to cover up. Malkoun swarmed for the finish in the second round after Petroski wobbled himself by diving head first into the hip of Malkoun on a takedown attempt.
Neither of these outcomes make me especially confident in Petroski facing adversity, but both can be written off to a degree as well.
I suppose the bigger issue is that as far back as you can possibly go in Petroski’s career, he’s always had issues facing adversity, primarily due to cardio reasons. He starts strong, dominates on the mat, and wins ITD. But when he fails to secure a finish, he gets tired and can be finished himself.
That played out on the regional scene. It played out on TUF. And it’s played out to a degree in the UFC.
Prior to his two losses, Petroski barely escaped against Gerald Meerschaert after winning the first two rounds. He got tired once again, and ended up on his back late with Meerschaert landing ground-and-pound. It’s always been an extreme red flag for me with Petroski, and he’s a fighter who I do not trust to fight through adversity.
He didn’t face much adversity in his last matchup though, nor was he largely expected to, despite coming in as the underdog in that fight. Petroski was simply a better wrestler and grappler than Fremd, and was able to easily secure three takedowns on four attempts, and control Fremd for nearly 13 minutes of the 15 minute bout.
I’m not certain we’re going to see him tested again this weekend by Budka, who I viewed as a low-level control based wrestler prior to making his debut in April.
Budka holds a career record of 7-3, with one win by knockout and two by submission. He’s young in the game at 24 years old, and he won by decision on the Contender Series last year to earn his contract.
Budka has a background in football and other team sports, and despite getting a late start in wrestling, he was awarded a scholarship to Notre Dame college in Ohio. He seems like a very athletic guy and that athleticism and wrestling will be his biggest strength.
Budka is capable of shooting big double legs, and slamming his opponents on the canvas. Or he can back them up into the fence and grab double legs from there.
My issue is that otherwise, Budka’s game is very limited. I’m unsure of his exact credentials in BJJ, but I don’t consider him very good. He’s only been a pro fighter since 2022, and he was submitted in one of his early bouts.
I’ve also seen him taken down in a handful of fights, and he can get stuck on the bottom at times, or even give up his back. It’s a separate but related issue, and one that leads me to not fully trust Budka as a grappler.
It shows in his record too. A dominant wrestler with an athletic base should have more than three finishes out of seven victories. He hasn’t been able to dominate poor regional competition, and it feels very unlikely he can dominate UFC level competition.
But his pure wrestling is fine. He can land takedowns. I just do not trust his ability to attack relentlessly from there, or find a submission. I also think he’s in danger of getting taken down himself, and getting submitted.
On the feet, Budka is mediocre at best. He can throw with power, but he uses a lot of energy and I wouldn’t be very trusting of his volume or defense over a long period of time.
Realistically, Budka’s best chance to win is to grind out his opponents. I wish there was more threat with his grappling style because in this current state of MMA, he doesn’t do enough damage for me to be comfortable.
In his UFC debut, Budka fought a pure striker in Cesar Almeida, and was able to easily take him down a few times. Despite controlling Almeida for nearly the entirety of the first five minutes, Budka got tired, and became less effective in round two. As he shot for takedowns against the cage, Almeida hurt him with elbows and quickly finished the fight.
It’s a really terrible look for Budka and puts even more doubt in my mind as to how he’ll fare moving forward. That opponent couldn’t really wrestle. So if you can’t get past three rounds in that type of matchup, how will you really succeed in others?
Needless to say, I again believe Petroski is the superior grappler in this matchup and given he’s potentially fighting someone with cardio issues, it’s possible Petroski’s biggest weakness won’t be a major road block here.
The most likely outcome to me is that Petroski can either take Budka down, or scramble his way to top position early in the fight. From there, I think it’s pretty realistic he takes the back and threatens for a finish.
He wasn’t able to secure the finish against Fremd though, and didn’t really want to push a pace in fear of getting tired. It sort of killed his fantasy ceiling because of it, and that’s a possibility again here too. But it’s at least nice to see him go a full three rounds.
I’m honestly just not sure what Budka can really do here. Sure, he could theoretically land a takedown, but what is he going to do with it? Lay on top of Petroski? There’s some chance Petroski could gas out and Budka could win with this method, but it doesn’t seem very realistic.
There’s also some chance Budka could just throw power shots on the feet and hurt Petroski. Petroski only lands 3.0 sig. strikes per minute and isn’t a real threat at distance, but neither man projects to land consistently and range and it probably taxes the gas tank of both.
It just feels very likely that we see grappling exchanges sooner rather than later, and Petroski is a far more sound submission artist and has a lot more experience. I have to favor him to come out ahead and there’s a good chance he finds a submission along the way.
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On DraftKings, Petroski is a strong target at 9.3k and one interesting place to start your lineups if you cannot pay up to Dulgarian.
There is more risk here with Petroski, but up until his last bout, his wins had scored 106, 118, 91, 104 and 79. With his recent 77 point decision, I do question his upside a bit, but I expect the field will be more hesitant as well.
And realistically, of course there are ways for Petroski to underperform. He doesn’t throw enough strikes on the feet or on the mat to easily smash through 100 points in a decision. He probably won’t have a ton of cardio in the second half of the fight anyway.
But he is grappling oriented, and most of his wins typically come early in fights. He’s facing an opponent who also wants to grapple but has been finished multiple times. I’m actually surprised his ITD line is only +200, as that gives Budka more respect than I believe is deserving.
I don’t mind taking shots here. There are other spots I like as well, some cheaper, some more expensive, but Petroski is a heavy favorite with a great style to score on DK, and he has finishing upside in this matchup.
Budka at 6.9k can score well in a win, and Petroski always has some chance to blow it, typically via a cardio dump.
If Budka wins, I think he has to outwrestle Petroski, or knock him out. Both outcomes would score well at this price, and he’ll likely be leverage against Petroski.
With that said, I don’t trust it. I don’t think he has the skills, and I hated what I saw in his UFC debut. I don’t think he wins this fight at a high rate or wins cleanly very often, and I’m very hesitant to pull the trigger with any significant exposure.
I’ll mostly consider him a low-end punt/salary saver at 6.9k, but with a limited portfolio of lineups, I’ll be very light on exposure to Budka this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petroski by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Zygimantas Ramaska vs. Nathan Fletcher
Fight Odds: Fletcher -130, Ramaksa +113
Odds to Finish: -285
DraftKings Salaries: Fletcher 8.3k, Ramaska 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
This matchup between Zygimantas Ramaska and Nathan Fletcher was scheduled to take place two weeks ago during the TUF Finale event, but it was scrapped only minutes after the slate locked due to an issue with Fletcher. The pair are set to fight once again this weekend, so fingers crossed both actually make it to the Octagon.
Zygimantas Ramaska was a part of the recent TUF 32 season. Despite getting his hand raised in the quarterfinal matchup, he suffered a facial fracture in the fight where he wasn’t able to compete going forward – he’s 9-2 as a pro. Nathan Fletcher is a UK prospect hailing from the Cage Warriors scene. He was a fellow castmate on this season of TUF but lost his quarterfinal matchup to Kaan Ofli – he’s 8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Ramaska’s a taller 145er, standing 5’11” with a 71” reach.
Our footage on him overall isn’t vast, so making a hardline read on him is still a bit difficult.
In what we have, he doesn’t appear to be the most technical guy in the world as his game largely just revolves around blitzing opponents or biting down on the mouthpiece and trying to win a war that way.
In his defense, it’s worked out well for him over the years as he’s 5-1 to the KO.
But his reckless nature leaves him with essentially no defense which is ultimately what almost got him smoked in the quarterfinals of TUF.
It was a big hook from Usmonov that dropped him and broke his face. But Ramaska showed a ton of heart and toughness to power through that and go on to win that fight – there should have been a 3rd round there in my opinion but it looked like Ramaska was taking over anyway.
But despite showing off his toughness in that bout, he got absolutely blasted by Tumenov in his first pro loss back in 2018 – not a bad loss as hindsight is 20/20 though, and Tumenov is a stud.
He’s still got buckled in other fights though where he profiles to be a kill or be killed going forward.
Fletcher’s a grappler by base and as a result, all his fights have devolved into grappling matches so despite having a decent amount of footage to view, there isn’t a ton to analyze on the feet.
In the bit we have, he doesn’t seem very comfortable standing.
I thought his hands looked a bit better a few fights back against Giordano but by and large, he’s really only using his striking to try to set up his grappling in which I don’t think he even does that very well.
He’s generally lower volume at range to where he’s just feinting a jab or throwing an overhand right to then shoot a TD.
But he can be pushed backwards at times and isn’t stringing together any real combinations.
He only has one pro win via strikes but that was a positional TKO, so he also hasn’t shown any semblance of power standing either.
The lone pro loss he has came against Wooding in a title fight that he was winning, but got caught late with a knee coming in to where he then got head kicked and finished off with punches – I’ve seen him get rocked with a knee coming in before as well so it’s not the first time it happened.
Overall, I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Fletcher’s going to be much of a threat standing to the guys he’s fighting on the feet, barring bigger evolutions from him going forward – he’s only 26 years old though so there is scope for optimism.
How it plays out: Despite me not thinking Ramaska is some technical savant on the feet, Fletcher’s going to be in some trouble when this fight is standing. He just doesn’t have the general footwork or defensive striking capabilities to keep someone like Ramaska at bay. But Ramaska’s striking in all likelihood will leave him exposed to wrestling which we’ll touch on in the next section.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Apparently Ramaska comes from a combat sambo background but there isn’t a ton in his tape that really suggests that’s the case.
He’s hit some upper body stuff here and there but has never been able to really control any opponents he’s grounded.
Ramaska has four subs of his nine pro wins but three are via guillotine so he hasn’t shown much process grappling upside. Defensively, he’s by and large losing in the wrestling of his fights as I don’t think his TDD is very good.
He has been able to work up and out of positions eventually but is someone that profiles to struggle with stronger positional players of a better level.
That’s about all there is to say with him at this point.
Fletcher’s a grappler by base where the large bulk of his fights have gone the same.
He’ll rinse and repeat TDs to where he can either grind guys out or find his positions to eventually submit.
But despite his career success in this realm, I really don’t think he’s a very good technical wrestler or grappler to be completely honest.
Fletcher more so falls into the hustler/attritional type grappler category for me where he’s going to just overwhelm opponents who don’t have the capabilities to keep him at bay.
But his general open mat wrestling is poor to where the large bulk of his TDs are coming from body locks or wrestle rides.
Opponents have been able to work up under him though relatively consistently and he’s lost position trying to advance in numerous fights.
At the same time, I don’t want to downplay the persistent nature of his game because it is a difficult style to deal with.
But he’ll probably get shut out by better defensive wrestlers in the UFC.
Lastly, he ultimately dropped his fight on TUF in the quarter finals where he fought a black belt in Ofli and was out grappled for the majority of minutes there which gives some proof of concept to what was just referenced.
Overall, Fletcher’s ground success going forward will be entirely matchup dependent.
How it plays out: Despite some of my criticisms of Fletcher’s technical prowess, he has the large bulk of ground upside in this fight. What’s kind of interesting though is that we haven’t seen Ramaska threatened much from a submission perspective so I’m unsure of how he deals with dominant positions should Fletcher get there. But as noted, guys have consistently worked up under Fletcher in the past and Ramaska has shown he can work up from bottom despite being a poor defensive wrestler. So, the question is whether Fletcher can find a submission or continue some of his wet blanket ways to continually win minutes over Ramaska.
I don’t rate either of these guys very highly, but the matchup dynamic makes the fight pretty intriguing, coupled with a few other considerations. First, you have both guys coming off injuries on the show with the fractured face of Ramaska and a broken leg bone from Fletcher. Secondly, Ramaska is a natural 145er and Fletcher is a natural 135er. In these types of spots, I’ll traditionally lean to the grappler, which is Fletcher, but I also think the size of Ramaska and danger factor he brings on the feet throws an interesting wrench into the fight. I’m going to take Ramaska for the upset to either put Fletcher down or win a tight decision based on damage.
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On DraftKings, we were absolutely devastated last week with the cancellation of this fight post-lock.
It is part of the sport and I try not to complain too much. Sometimes these things work in your favor and sometimes not. I did have 100% of the fight personally last week, so I was pretty pissed off. Still am.
It honestly makes it difficult to click the names again this week, though I will do so because I can somewhat separate my emotions from my process. I’m not certain the field will be excitedly playing them either, especially on a slate with stronger surrounding options.
I would say that my confidence in Fletcher has waned just a tad as well. I really liked him last time due to his wrestling upside, and I still do, but the fight was also canceled due to an unknown medical issue and now the betting line is closer.
I was always open to the idea that Ramaska could knock him out, or survive some grappling exchanges by being the bigger guy. Ramaska is really bad defensively though, and Fletcher is an aggressive grappler. Ultimately, the matchup still projects similarly.
So I still think Fletcher is a great tournament target and potentially an elite one. He was only 25 percent owned last week, and I would definitely want to be above the field again if that’s the case.
Fletcher’s only real path to win is ground domination. He can’t strike and he’ll be forced to exchange due to Ramaska’s aggressive nature. So yeah Fletcher might suck and lose, but a win for him will come with takedowns, control, ground strikes and potentially a finish. He’s +110 to win ITD.
All things considered, he rates out incredibly well for me at this price tag with a potentially lower public ownership. The real risk is in that the fight is competitively lined and he could easily outright lose.
Ramaska could very well be the more popular fighter of the two at 7.9k, and he makes for a great target as well.
My concerns for him are he could get held down early and so in a comeback win, maybe he doesn’t smash. But he’s been so aggressive to a fault on the regionals that I think it’s likely he wins by TKO if he wins at all, and it could come immediately.
He is only +195 to win ITD but that’s still a decent number and still shows upside. He was 26% owned last week.
I don’t even mind if you want to prioritize Ramaska over Fletcher. He works a bit better in some constructions and I know there are people who like him to win outright.
I won’t go that far, but at these percentages, I don’t mind being overweight. The fight is -285 to end ITD and given the binary nature, I am still hopeful we see a ceiling score from the winner and an optimal result.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fletcher by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)