UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira (2/7/26)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Fight Odds: Bautista -153, Oliveira +131
Odds to end ITD: -165
DraftKings Salaries: Bautista 8.8k, Oliveira 7.4k
Weight Class: 135
We have a brilliant action fight in the bantamweight division for our first Fight Night of 2026 between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira.
Bautista has been one of my favorite fighters in the division for years. Although he’s not a special athlete, or a devastating knockout artist, he fights at a high pace and he maximizes a lot of the tools in his arsenal.
I remember cashing on him big as an underdog over Jin Soo Son in 2019, when Bautista went to war for a few rounds, landed 129 significant strikes and won a decision. That was after he lost his UFC debut to Cory Sandhagen in 2019 and the public was down on him. Funny how time works.
Since that debut loss, Bautista has won 10 of 12 fights in the UFC, only losing to Umar Nurmagomedov in his most recent bout, and to Trevin Jones in 2021. He’s a high-paced kickboxer and round winner, and lands 5.58 sig. strikes per minute, absorbing 4.19 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate.
We’ve seen him top out at 173 sig. strikes against Mix over three rounds, 129 and Son and 112 against Simon. I think the strike counts were inflated against Mix personally but 100-120 is very achievable for Bautista.
Bautista has only knocked down a couple of opponents though, including Umar, and he’s only scored one official TKO in the process, so he’s not an extremely dangerous finisher.
As a grappler, Bautista lacks a little wrestling but he’s good enough to hang around with the mid-levels of the division. He lands 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a brown belt in BJJ. He defends takedowns at 54 percent.
He was just taken down 11 times by Umar but I give him a pass for that because Umar is a future champion, and Bautista still scrambled up well, which is why Umar needed 11 takedowns.
In total, I prefer to play Bautista in spots where he can win on activity and pacing, and isn’t going to be dominated by a more physical wrestler. I also suspect five rounds will play to his favor because his cardio has always been strong, and it’s quite possible his style is better suited for 25 minutes.
Oliveira is a rising prospect who is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently defeating Kyler Phillips by decision last July. He also earned one of the knockouts of the year in his UFC debut over Bernardo Sopaj.
Oliveira defeated Sopaj in his UFC debut in 2024, chasing him down in the final seconds to land a clean flying knee to chin that crumpled Sopaj. That was his 16th win by knockout and he also has another couple by submission.
Oliveira is a dangerous muay-thai striker who is here to entertain. He’s flashy. He’s a showboater. And he has no problems putting himself in danger to hunt for knockouts.
Oliveira will wing punches as he chases opponents, and that aggression will continue to lead to dangerous moments, but I haven’t always loved his technique and he leaves himself open defensively.
I do generally like his kicking game though, as he comes from a soccer background. He can throw hard leg kicks which is a strong tool to have, and he clearly carries power in his strikes. He rates out as the type who will often win by KO due to his willingness to chase them, but he will likely lose by KO as well.
Unfortunately, we’ve seen on the regional scene that there are limitations to this game, and it’s why I’ve been lower than him than the public to start this UFC career. I’ve paid for it to be honest. One of the biggest concerns I’ve had previously is that Oliveira often gets hurt. All three of his pro losses have come by knockout, and a couple of them have been bad.
One example of that was in his most recent TKO loss on the regional scene, where Oliveira leg kicked his opponent, pointed and laughed, and then got immediately rocked. Later in the fight, the announcers were literally talking about how nervous they were that Oliveira was getting too reckless, and only moments later he was knocked out cold. That kind of attitude just makes me nervous.
Even in that fight with Sopaj, Oliveira was clearly losing the first round and a half before he mounted a comeback once Sopaj was completely gassed out. Sopaj was able to land a few takedowns early, and get dominant positions like the mount and the back. He just couldn’t sustain any pace and once Oliveira escaped in the second round, Sopaj was a sitting duck.
It was still a decent performance from Oliveira all things considered, who showed he at least has the cardio to go three rounds. But I expect his defensive lapses both on the feet and on the ground will continue to hinder him, as will his Fight IQ.
In his more recent fights, he’s picked up decisions against Ricky Simon, Said Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips. He’s generally chasing them around the Octagon, throwing heavy shots and kicks, and it makes his opponents tired.
We’ve seen Oliveira fairly fatigued in his fights but he can functionally fight through it a bit, while many of his opponents cannot. He’s currently landing 5.28 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.89 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate.
He’s also shown strong takedown defense at 80 percent, and he lands 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes.
I clearly underrated Oliveira to begin his UFC career but he still looks like the type with a real ceiling based on his style. I like his aggression, his pursuit, and the danger he brings to the cage. But I think he lacks some depth of skill, of wrestling, and of general IQ and awareness that should give him trouble against the upper tier of the division.
As far as this matchup, I think we may see fireworks.
Oliveira tends to fight very aggressively, pushing forward and looking to break his opponents while Bautista can compete at a high pace himself. I wouldn’t be particularly surprised to see either man get hurt in a flurry of early exchanges.
Over five rounds, I have to favor Bautista though. I think his pacing and consistency is better than Oliveira’s, and I’ve seen Oliveira fatigued much more than Bautista. I have much more faith that in rounds 4-5, if it gets there, Bautista can continue to implement his game.
If Oliveira is tired by the championship rounds and must hurt Bautista, that does not feel like a recipe for success.
Early on, Oliveira can have success though. Optics favor his style and he can land big shots. We’ve seen Bautista knocked out once before although I’d guess his durability is better than Oliveira’s outright.
Even as Oliveira will chase him around early, Bautista is a better technical kickboxer. So I still tend to lean toward Bautista as the superior round winner here. If he doesn’t get KOd, I am guessing he can win three of five rounds. He also may have some KO equity and especially so late.
We may see grappling exchanges too though I wouldn’t expect either man to dominate. Both could project for 1-2 takedowns landed. I think Bautista is a better submission grappler of the two and I trust him more in grappling exchanges. I’d lean toward him having an advantage though if either man lands an initial early takedown, I wouldn’t expect much control to come with it.
So ultimately, the striking exchanges, pacing and cardio should decide this fight and I favor Bautista mildly to moderately in that regard. Oliveira is threatening enough with his pursuit that he can’t be counted out to land a fight-changing shot, especially early on.
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On DraftKings, this fight rates out pretty well for five rounds of moderate paced exchanges.
Bautista is priced at 8.8k and carries a very solid floor in a win. I would expect 100-150 significant strikes landed (or potentially more), along with some grappling and a potential finish.
The issue in this situation, like what I talked about with Volkanovski last week, is that if he doesn’t grapple, and wins by decision, he can still underperform. 140 sig. strikes with no extra stats only equates to an 86 point win on DK. That likely would not be enough at 8.8k.
However, 1-2 takedowns mixed in and suddenly that’s close to 100 points. He’s also +155 to win ITD so a TKO is on the table.
The bottom line is that striking based fights are not guarantees, even over five rounds, but I am fairly comfortable with playing Bautista here based on the pacing, and I expect a solid result in a win.
We’ve actually seen Bautista’s odds fall quite a bit this week, from near -200 down to -153, which I find interesting. I don’t put a whole lot of stock into it other than that Oliveira is dangerous and is live to win. But I do think it will affect public ownership, and currently I have Oliveira projected to be higher owned than Bautista outright.
Both will still carry lots of ownership, but Bautista may not be ultra chalk given the slate dynamics. I still want moderate exposure personally as he carries a good floor/ceiling expectation in a win.
Oliveira is priced at 7.4k and is even more likely to be optimal in a win.
Coming off four wins in a row, and undefeated in the UFC, I am guessing he will be very popular and certainly the most popular underdog on the slate. I actually have him projected to be among the highest owned fighters on the slate outright, and I expect combinations with Oliveira, J. Basharat, Donchenko, Oleksiejczuk and Almeida will be among the most duped.
Oliveira has only scored 88, 80 and 78 in his last three decisions but if you extrapolate that to five rounds, he’d still be projected to reach 110 points or so in a five-rounder. He also has some real finishing equity at +2525 to win ITD, although it won’t be an easy outcome, it could be highly tied to his chances of winning this fight.
Even in a loss, I wouldn’t be shocked if Oliveira landed 100+ significant strikes, and scored 40-50 points in a loss. At 7.4k there’d be a tiny chance he could be optimal if this turned into a war, though I tend not to play for those outcomes.
At his price, in this type of matchup, Oliveira rates out as a strong secondary or primary target. You can prioritize him outright if you like him better than the betting odds (which I don’t). I’d prefer to play him around the field percentage, or more likely come in a bit underweight now that I expect him to be steamed into the mid 40s.
Both sides will be excellent small-field options and cash games targets as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bautista by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Fight Odds: Horiguchi -345, Albazi +280
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Horiguchi 9.3k, Albazi 6.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
One of the next potential flyweight title contenders, Kyoji Horiguchi will make a quick turnaround against Amir Albazi on Saturday.
Horiguchi looked absolutely incredible in his most recent fight against Tagir Ulanbekov. Horiguchi absolutely annihilated Tagir. He beat the crap out of him in all areas and eventually finished him in round 3.
It was a great performance in what was a return to the promotion for Horiguchi, who had a stint in the UFC a few years back and then returned after a ton of success in good promotions like Bellator and Rizin.
Horiguchi is one of the best flyweights in MMA history and is a very well-rounded fighter with a ton of experience and some great wins over great competition. He is 35-5 professionally and his losses have come to great fighters. He is 35 now so I think people thought he was past his prime but he showed he is clearly a top flyweight in that performance against Tagir.
Horiguchi is very well-rounded and is a very good striker. His speed is incredible and I think that is his best asset. He has a wide stance and uses his speed with a constant bouncing and rapid in and out movement style. He utilizes exceptional speed and distance management to blitz opponents with lightning-fast punch-kick combinations.
He also combines that speed with power and can absolutely hurt fighters on the feet. I really like his striking. He is so athletic and fast and blends his kicks and punches so well.
Horiguchi is also skilled on the mat and can wrestle offensively and defensively. He has been outwrestled and controlled by more physical wrestlers. However, he isn’t easy to grapple either and he can scramble well. Overall, I really respect the game of Horiguchi.
Horiguchi will be taking on Amir Albazi who is coming off a dominant loss to Brandon Moreno in November of 2024.
Albazi is kind of just okay. I was never sold on him and I was quite sure he was going to get wrecked by the top guys of the division. He is a well-rounded fighter who isn’t bad anywhere but isn’t great anywhere either.
Albazi is probably best as a grappler and his run up the division was generally from out grappling weak competition. He has some okay takedowns and back taking ability and can definitely wreck weak grapplers on the mat.
I still don’t think Albazi’s actual takedowns are that good though and he only lands 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. He only landed 1 takedown against KKF in five rounds and 1 takedown against Brandon Moreno in five rounds. So it is pretty clear his wrestling is less effective against the top tier of the division.
As a striker, Albazi is serviceable but not good. He lands 2.72 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.71 in return. He was outlanded by Moreno 132-63 in significant strikes and by KKF 99-43 in significant strikes. Albazi was somehow awarded the decision against KKF which was an absolutely awful decision.
Look, Albazi isn’t a bad fighter but I don’t think he is great anywhere. His wrestling seems to not be effective enough to beat the top guys. He also is consistently getting outlanded by the top guys too. So I really can’t pick him to beat Horiguchi who is very much a top tier flyweight.
I think Albazi can maybe land a takedown here but I doubt he can consistently take Horiguchi down or hold him down. I think threatening with a random back take is Albazi’s best chance here.
On the feet, I think Horiguchi is clearly better and more powerful and I think he may be able to hurt Albazi. I think Horiguchi just wins a clear fight here by outstriking Albazi, landing more and harder, and minimizing the grappling enough.
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On DraftKings, Horiguchi is priced up to 9.3k which makes him difficult to prioritize.
On the other hand, he looked incredible in his last matchup and scored 108 DK points, so if he can duplicate that, he’s live to be optimal. Albazi is a step down from Ulanbekov in my opinion.
From a base level, Horiguchi still won’t project super well. He’s not a super high volume striker and he isn’t a lock to wrestle. He’s only +200 to win ITD.
But it’s hard to put into words how strong of a performance Horiguchi had in his last fight. He may be the best flyweight in the world right now. Albazi is coming off a long, injury riddled layoff and I wouldn’t be shocked if Horiguchi ran through him.
Donchenko is going to rate out as an elite upside target above him, and others like Oleksiejczuk will soak up a ton of ownership as well. I’m not necessarily excited to pay 9.3k.. The floor here isn’t spectacular and again, the base outcome is probably a decision.
Horiguchi has enough grappling and finishing equity in his game to consider him a solid semi-contrarian target though, and the lower owned he is the better.
So despite some questions in projection, I think Horiguchi is a fine semi-contrarian target, even at this price tag. I’ll likely end up with only mild exposure at the cost but I can’t help consider him among the safer options to win outright.
Albazi is priced at 6.9k and I don’t have a lot of interest in him.
I’ve actually been super low on Albazi in the past and I bet Moreno big against him last time out. Now he’s been out for a year and a half, and I’m not sure how I can change my opinion.
I suppose if he’s healthy now, he could land a big strike or land some takedowns. Horiguchi has been TKOd a couple of times. Albazi just throws so little volume and I think he’s at a big speed disadvantage.
So I can’t project Albazi to land many total strikes. Maybe he can land 1-2 takedowns but I’d be pretty surprised if that was enough to overcome the striking and finish Horiguchi. Albazi is only +700 to win ITD.
If you want to mix Albazi in as a low-end type of play, a dart throw, that’s OK. He’s cheap and won’t be popular. This seems like a very tough matchup to produce points and win, so I’ll chase win equity elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Horiguchi by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Fight Odds: Almeida -152, Kuniev +130
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Almeida 8.5k, Kuniev 7.7k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun heavyweight fight here between Jailton Almeida and Rizvan Kuniev. It is an interesting style matchup as well.
Almeida is a submission grappler. His game is easy to break down. He wants to land takedowns, get top control, pass his opponent’s guard, and submit his opponents. That is basically how he wins all of his fights. Or he just lays on top of them for multiple rounds to win a control based decision.
I don’t actually think Almeida is very good and if you put his skillset in any other division, I don’t think he would thrive. However, his game at heavyweight will definitely work as heavyweight is full of unskilled fighters who don’t know how to stop takedowns, get up from bottom position, or defend submissions.
So for a heavyweight, I consider Almeida to have good takedowns and a good double leg. He is pretty fast and athletic with his takedowns and currently lands a solid 6.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also always goes to his path to victory which is great to see. He almost psychotically searches for his takedowns. I also consider him a fine submission grappler from top position for a heavyweight and he will finish most heavyweight’s on the mat.
Almeida clearly has some issues though. On the feet, he looks like a liability. He looks to just minimize engagements and wants nothing to do with striking. He can land an occasional power shot overhand but other than that, he isn’t a good striker and will get exposed on the feet by most guys who can nullify his wrestling. His cardio also looks a bit weak too.
Overall though, Almeida is going to feast on 90 percent of this division with his takedowns and top game submission grappling.
Almeida will be taking on Rizvan Kuniev who is coming off a controversial split decision loss to Curtis Blaydes in a fight many thought that he won.
Kuniev is a Russian fighter who is 13-3-1 professionally. He is 33 years old and made his way to the UFC via the Contender Series.
He is basically a wrestle-boxer. He can take opponents down and beat them up, and I like his ground-and-pound from top position.
I also consider Kuniev to have decent boxing. He has some power and he can put together decent boxing combinations for a heavyweight. He has okay cardio too and I actually think he is a decent heavyweight prospect.
I also consider Kuniev’s defensive grappling to be competent and he defends takedowns at 90 percent.
Against Curtis Blaydes, Kuniev defended 13 of 15 takedown attempts and even on the 2 takedowns landed in round one, Kuniev popped up immediately and was just controlled from the standing position as Blaydes maintained his clasped hands. Blaydes couldn’t ground Kuniev at all. I think Kuniev’s defensive wrestling is very strong but my only complaint is that he didn’t fight the clasped hands from the standing position to escape quicker.
We actually saw Blaydes and Almeida in this position in round one too. Almeida took Blaydes down, Blaydes gave up his back and worked up, and Almeida maintained the standing control position with locked hands.
I could see Almeida getting this position early on Kuniev too. However, I don’t expect Almeida to hold this position for the entire fight and I think it will be hard for him to completely ground Kuniev too. I think if Almeida grounds Kuniev it will be early and he will need to put hooks in and get a quick submission.
Overall though, I like Kuniev’s defensive grappling and I am leaning towards him minimizing a lot of Almeida’s grappling attacks and getting Almeida tired.
If Kuniev minimizes the grappling he should absolutely win this fight. He is a better striker and honestly Kuniev could take Almeida down any time he wants imo. If Kuniev gets on top, he will actually land ground-and-pound and may put Almeida away. So my pick is Kuniev here. I think he will land more damage and work hard, and make Almeida really struggle to offensively grapple.
I could be wrong here and I do respect the grappling game of Almeida. However, heavyweights are so bad defending takedowns and I am pretty confident that Kuniev actually isn’t. So Kuniev is the pick here.
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On DraftKings, Almeida is a focal point yet again at 8.5k and has one of the higher-upside profiles on the slate.
He is such an aggressive grappler that when he wins, he smashes. He’s scored 118, 113, 120, 125, 104, 134, 99, and 115 in his wins. At 8.5k, I’d guess any of those would be optimal on this slate.
And that’s the crux of the situation. Is Almeida going to win? I’m not sure. If he wins, he’s going to put himself in contention for the optimal. As a near -150 favorite, Almeida is likely worth moderate exposure regardless of the outcome.
From a matchup sense, I struggle with this one a bit because I do think Almeida will land takedowns early. I think he can take Kuniev’s back. However, if he doesn’t win ITD early, then I wouldn’t at all be confident he can continue to chain wrestle for the remainder of the next two rounds. I’d probably favor Kuniev at that point.
Kuniev is just bad enough to allow some position but probably just good enough to survive it. Therefore, picking the upset is reasonable.
I’m not going to sweat it though. I’m still playing Almeida moderately at 8.5k. He’s +105 to win ITD with a clear path to score 100 points, even in a decision. He’s an easy target to play alongside the field (or even a bit overweight if the field is extra scared).
Kuniev at 7.7k is a tougher call because of the style. Even when Almeida has lost, he’s landed 7 and 9 takedowns. So I don’t see the clear case where Kuniev likely smashes Almeida early.
I fear actually that if Kuniev loses, it will be another close fight where he lands like 40 strikes in a decision and edges out rounds. Volkov just beat Almeida and scored 70 DK points.
Because of that, I don’t consider Kuniev a must. Not only does losing kill him off, but there’s a bust case in a win too.
However, I’d still label him as a secondary target. He’s a decent fighter and he’s +240 to win ITD. Almeida has been knocked out before. Kuniev could also potentially land takedowns or reverse position.
There is risk here clearly and I wouldn’t want to load up on Kuniev, but Almeida fights typically score well and it makes sense to have exposure on both sides. Tim picking Kuniev to win outright is a pretty bullish signal as well.
I hesitate slightly because he’ll likely lose the first round and score only a few points, but I’m still fine playing into Kuniev some and the fight as a whole, hoping to see an upside case play out.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kuniev by Decision (Confidence=None, I sat here and stared at my computer screen for 20 minutes before choosing an outcome.)
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Odds: Oleksiejczuk -482, Barriault +376
Odds to end ITD: -450
DraftKings Salaries: Oleksiejczuk 9.1k, Barriault 7.1k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a clash of middleweight brawlers, as Michal Oleksiejczuk takes on Marc-Andre Barriault. I’m truly excited for this one, let’s jump in.
Well well well. Lord Michal is back. Last year, I wrote about the poor 2024 Michal Oleksiejczuk had, as he went 0-3 inside the Octagon and dropped to 1-4 in his last five at the time. However, the Polish power striker bounced back in 2025 with 2 wins, against Gerald Meerchaert and SD Dumas, both of which came by KO in the very first round.
That puts him at 8-0 to the KO in the UFC, and a true power threat on the feet. He also now sports a 81% finish rate through 31 pro fights.
However, it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Michal, as there is a glaring hole in his game; the grappling. He is 0-5 to the submission in the UFC, and has been submitted in 6 of his 9 losses. He has a 52% takedown defense and we have seen him submitted by decent competition, including Kevin Holland and Michel Pereira most recently.
Since that losing streak in 2024 though, we saw Oleksiejczuk go and work with the Fighting Nerds camp down in Brazil, including working with former opponent Caio Borralho who was able to take down and submit Michal in 2023. Hopefully that TDD and get-up game has improved, because that has really been a detriment to his style.
On the feet however, there are plenty of positives. We already outlined his power, but his volume and forward pressure are potentially even better assets. He averages 5.34 strikes landed per minute and defends strikes at a 59%, showing he is aggressive but calculated as he pressures opponents. Once backed up, he is very good at unloading on opponents and taking them out along the cage.
I would like to see a variety in strikes as Michal is solely a boxer, but with the power and pressure he brings, that style works. He also works the body very well and has the durability to get into firefights, having not been KO’d or dropped despite facing dangerous competition. Although, as previously mentioned, his opponents are typically smart enough to know to take him down and not entangle with that striking on the feet.
Overall, Michal is a solid pressure boxer with great power, volume and body work. Although he can be a threat on the feet for all 15 minutes, he struggles on the mat and can be kept at bay with an offensive skillset limited to boxing attacks. He will have to continue to shore up that ground game and takedown defense, as well as look to implement different layers to his striking if he wants to continue this hot streak he is on.
Marc-Andre Barriault’s fighting style is one of my favorites inside the UFC, as the Canadian “PowerBar” looks to imitate hockey players with his clinch striking and constant swinging.
Unironically growing up a hockey player, Barriault got into MMA a bit late but brings that constant forward pressure and brawl type of mentality. It hasn’t served him the best recently, as MAB is 1-4 in his last 5.
With the constant brawls, he is a fighter who is always willing to eat one to give one. He averages 5.7 strikes landed per minute and had some extremely entertaining fights inside the UFC. With a 71% finish rate and 11 wins by KO, he is always looking to get into a war and use his volume, cardio and durability to out work his opponents.
However, that comes as a cost as he is someone who absorbs a lot of damage. He had a once considered iron chin, before being KO’d by Chidi Njokuani in 16 seconds in 2022. Since then, we have seen him finished in round one twice more, by Dustin Stolzfus and Joe Pyfer in 2024.
His strikes are not the most powerful or technical. But with the constant pressure, clinch game and work rate, he is often able to win optics and has the cardio to push a pace late and look to break opponents. Those who have the cardio to put up with Barriault or the ability to put him out early on the feet are going to have the ability to beat MAB, but the path of least resistance might be on the mat.
Barriault is physical and has a 68% TDD, but many have been able to take him down and have success. Sanchez took him down in his debut and held him for 6 minutes, Park was able to take him down 5 times and then Hernandez was able to take him down 8 times and finish him late, although that one is more forgivable.
Either way, Barriault has his holes. His technicality, durability and ground game are all able to be exploited by better competitors. But his pace, cardio and volume striking is enough to drag opponents into deep waters and beat opponents who are not cut out for what the PowerBar brings to the table.
Although beatable, MAB should never be counted out as he can match pace with the best of them and has the work rate for high paced striking affairs such as he’s proven in the past, although I would like him to shore up the ground game before trusting him at too high of a clip.
This is great matchmaking in my opinion. In each one of their write-ups, I mentioned two things about each fighter. They both have a glaring hole in their ground games, and they both want to walk forward and throw down. They are both pressure boxers with great cardio and no real desire to go to the mat. So who’s better? The answer to that is most likely Michal Oleksiejczuk.
I think if we compare their striking, although MAB has great cardio and volume, so does Michal. However, Michal also has better hand speed, more power and better durability. If these guys get into a brawl, I favor the durability of Michal to hold up and think he also has the stopping power to get Barriault out of there.
Sure, based on pure physicality, MAB could clinch up Michal and even control him on the mat, but I think Michal has the ability to stay off the cage and go toe to toe here. If that’s the case, I just think Oleksiejczuk is a straight up better boxer and I think he hits hard enough to test the broken chin of Barriault. So give me Lord Michal to take out the Canadian brawler here, having the ability to stand and bang, with just better optics, durability and power behind him.
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On DraftKings, I’m wondering if we see Oleksiejczuk’s ownership get out of hand at 9.1k, considering he’s coming off back-to-back RD 1 KOs, and his betting odds are climbing heavily.
He’s now pushing -500 to win which I think is a bit ridiculous personally, and I am guessing many will see him as an easy upside target at this price tag.
I don’t necessarily disagree, but in 9 UFC wins, Olek has only won by a method other than RD 1 KO once. It was a split decision against Bukauskas who doesn’t throw much. So essentially, I’m still not sold that Olek is deserving of being this heavy of a favorite because he hasn’t proven he can win outside of round one.
Yes he’s facing an opponent with questionable durability, and I think one of the most likely outcomes may be an Olek RD 1 KO, but Barriault just survived three rounds with Shara Magomedov, so it’s not as if he’s certainly toast.
Oleksiejcuzk is -250 to win ITD but he’s only +100 to win in round one and very boxing dependent, so at 9.1k, he’s not a must. I think the safest route here is to play him alongside the field or a bit underweight, as the RD 1 KO outcome is very much on the table. He’s an easy pivot spot from Donchenko if you want to save salary, although you can actually afford both in the same lineup pretty easily.
If he starts to project as real chalk, and I’m currently projecting high 30s, I don’t mind pivoting away. There’s still boom/bust elements to his game, and I think Barriault can survive and make the striking a bit competitive at times. If we start to get an extended matchup, Olek’s chances of being optimal start to decline pretty heavily.
No right/wrong answer here and for the price it’s hard to avoid Olek, but there are plenty of outcomes that push him off the optimal.
Barriault is priced at 7.1k and I think he’s a mildly sneaky target.
Just reference the information above – Olek has only won by a non-RD 1 KO outcome one time in nine victories. If anything, Barriault is consistent to throw volume, and he can wrestle a bit. A decision could be competitive.
I’m not very confident in Barriault and I’m not going to pick him to win. But the tier priced below Oliveira is not strong. Within that range, I could realistically see Barriault losing and scoring 30 points, or making a competitive scrap of things.
So if you have to punt, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Barriault. His floor is extremely low still and with odds moving against him, he certainly does not need to be a priority.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat
Fight Odds: Basharat -276, Matsumoto +228
Odds to end ITD: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Basharat 9k, Matsumoto 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Looking to go 7-0 in the UFC, I am excited to see Farid Basharat fight again when he takes on Jean Matsumoto this weekend.
Basharat is a very good fighter. He is well-rounded with good cardio.
I think Basharat is best as a wrestler. He lands 3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him a good wrestler who is fundamentally sound and skilled. He also has good control and submission stifling ability. He landed 5 out of 16 takedowns against Taylor Lapilus and showed he can volume wrestle hard for 15 minutes against a decent defensive grappler. I think Basharat can continue to outwrestle a lot of fighters in this weight class.
Basharat is also a skilled striker. He lands 4.05 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.47 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. He is a technical striker and outlanded Lapilus at range 39-34. I don’t consider him a great striker or anything and I do have concerns with his athleticism. However, he strikes fine, and always strikes on his terms and blends his striking and grappling very well. He also has good cardio and is defensively sound and defends takedowns at a solid 72 percent.
Basharat is simply a solid, trustworthy and well-rounded fighter. He can strike, grapple, and has good cardio and generally fights smart.
Basharat did face some adversity in round 3 of his latest matchup against Chris Gutierrez though. Basharat cleanly outstruck Gutierrez in rounds 1 and 2. In round 3, Basharat got dropped with a leg kick, and got a bit fatigued and lost position in top control. He didn’t get battered in the round and it was still a very competitive round. However, I think you just saw that Basharat can be in competitive and shaky rounds if he is not dominating in top position.
Basharat will be taking on Jean Matsumoto. Matsumoto is kind of a freestyle fighter, but I think he is best as a striker. He lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.43 in return. He is somewhat technical and powerful as a striker. He can put together some crisp boxing combinations, has a little power, and has some good low kicks. He also has decent volume and is aggressive with good cardio. He also seems very tough and hits pretty hard. He is a fun fighter to watch.
I still think Matsumoto is a bit hittable for my liking, but I do think he can outstrike the low to mid tier fighters in this division no problem. He just takes a decent amount of shots and even Katona busted him up. He did lose to Rob Font recently but it was a very competitive matchup. Even against Miles Johns he got boxed up a bit. I think Matsumoto is a bit better as a kicker than a boxer. He is susceptible to getting tagged in boxing exchanges.
Matsumoto can also occasionally land takedowns and he has a dangerous guillotine choke. He lands 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes but I don’t think his top control is great.
I question the defensive wrestling of Matsumoto to a degree. He defends takedowns at 53 percent so he can be taken down here and there. I do think his defensive wrestling has improved though and he is very physical. He also has improved his get-ups which is aided by his physicality so he can work up and get back to the feet.
I think Matsumoto is decent though. He is a tough guy with some good volume, low kicks, cardio, and toughness. He is also pretty dangerous and fights very hard.
As far as this matchup goes, I think we get a pretty competitive fight here that likely extends and probably goes to the cards.
On the feet, I think I favor Basharat early, especially in boxing range. I think at range Basharat has the cleaner boxing combinations and can land clean on Matsumoto. I also just think Basharat is the better defensive striker.
As the fight goes though, I do think Matsumoto can pressure and land some leg kicks, and just stay competitive and potentially tire Basharat. So I think the striking is competitive with a slight lean Basharat early with the boxing but the gap will likely narrow as the fight goes on.
I do think Basharat is more likely to land takedowns here though and he can probably have success with a takedown here and there with some mild control.
I don’t think Basharat can dominate with the wrestling though. Basharat will probably struggle extensively holding Matsumoto down. So I see this as a bit of a back and forth affair where I mildly favor Basharat because I think he is the better striker early and can mix in a few more takedowns than Matsumoto. This will likely be a pretty competitive scrap though and I do think Basharat will get resisted to a degree here.
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On DraftKings, Basharat is priced at 9k and I expect him to be a contrarian play.
While he has accrued a 5-0 record in the UFC, it hasn’t come with elite DraftKings scores. He’s only put up 65, 88, 86, 111 and 81, naturally due to the fact that he typically wins by decision. That one outlier came in a first-round submission win.
The good news here is that Basharat will project for takedowns. In fact, he may have considerable takedown upside. Matsumoto has yielded 5, 0, 3, 9, and 2 takedowns over his last five fights. Funny enough, the only fight he lost was the one he gave up 0 takedowns.
Basharat has the biggest edge on the mat here and I expect him to utilize it. I actually think 5 takedowns are in play here.
The problem is, the last time Basharat landed 5 takedowns, he scored 86.9 DK points. So at 9k, that wouldn’t be enough.
Basharat is only +300 to win ITD and I definitely expect this fight to go to a decision. You can argue based on that, that he isn’t worth an investment. The field will feel similarly.
As a contrarian option, I think Basharat is viable because of the grappling equity. With a low public ownership, he could still reach 90 points in a decision perhaps, and with a little luck could contend for the optimal. I’d be OK mixing him in for the purpose of being unique, but from a base level, his upside is capped a bit without finishing equity.
Matsumoto is priced at 7.2k and I’m not a huge fan of him this week.
Matsumoto fights at a great pace and he will project well because the fight is -325 to go the distance. In theory, he can score 40 points in a loss and he will be in play for cash games due to his floor.
However, Basharat doesn’t yield a lot of points. His opponents have scored 42, 7, 16, 24 and 30 DK points in losses. Matsumoto is also +228 to win and +850 ITD.
I think a win likely means Matsumoto scores well and contends for the optimal but I’d still expect a tighter decision in that case. His floor is reasonable on paper but it’s a tough matchup to produce.
I can’t fault you for playing some Matsumoto at 7.2k but I’m not particularly excited to roster him against a better defensive fighter and better wrestler.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Basharat by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker
Fight Odds: Jacoby -184, Walker +156
Odds to end ITD: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Jacoby 8.7k, Walker 7.5k
Weight Class: 205
To continue our action packed Fight Night, Dustin Jacoby will take on Julius Walker in the light heavyweight division.
It wasn’t long ago when many considered Jacoby to be “done” as a professional. Coming off four losses in five fights, with a brutal KO loss to Dominick Reyes in 2024, it was hard to be confident in the now 37-year-old kickboxer.
But Jacoby has turned back the clock in his last two fights, scoring a highlight 3rd round KO win over prospect Vitor Petrino, and he’s coming off another 1st round KO win over Bruno Lopes in May.
Jacoby is a classic veteran kickboxer who is very experienced. He lands 5.37 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.02 per minute with a 57 percent striking defense.
He’s not an elite power striker but we’ve seen that power show up from time to time. His last four wins have all been devastating knockout victories, but prior to that, he had only earned two knockouts in his previous six wins.
Jacoby tends not to run away with fights though. Two of those more recent losses came to Khalil Rountree and Alonzo Menifield, and Jacoby arguably won both. He outlanded Rountree 120 to 85, and he outlanded Menifield 93 to 60. Menifield knocked him down late which was the deciding factor there, but the point is that despite clearly pulling ahead, Jacoby wasn’t able to seal the victory.
He also doesn’t grapple, landing only 0.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, so there is no fall back plan.
And at age 37, his durability is fair to question. Even in striking based fights, where he can succeed, he can also be hurt.
I still like Jacoby in his current form. He’s a sharp striker who can throw leg kicks, and throw with decent pace. He has some pop. I’ve also always liked his defensive grappling, though he defends takedowns at 62 percent, he is tough to hold down.
He’ll be taking on Julius Walker this week who is coming off his first UFC victory over Rafael Cerqueira in August.
In that win, Walker landed six takedowns on 10 attempts and controlled Cerqueira for nearly 12 minutes, but I honestly thought he looked kinda bad. In part, it’s worth noting that Cerqueira is one of the worst fighters to grace this division over the past years.
Cerqueira also tagged Walker every time the fight was standing. Walker actually knocked him down, but Cerqueira outlanded him 19-18 at distance and Walker wrestled out of urgency.
Walker is now 7-1 professionally, and he’s earned four wins by TKO and two by submission. He previously lost a competitive decision to Alonzo Menifield in his UFC debut, which came on short notice.
Because of the short notice aspect, it wasn’t a loss that reflects super poorly on Walker. He fought hard and managed to land 86 significant strikes, but Menifield was a bit more effective at distance. Walker still clinched and held onto Menifield for 5+ minutes, but only was able to land 1/9 takedowns and couldn’t accrue enough top time to swing rounds.
Walker doesn’t have any deep MMA background and was a D2 basketball player at Drury, so although his athletic base is there, it’s not an ideal one for Mixed Martial Arts.
His regional competition was pretty bad, and he even has three amateur losses in 2021, which all came by decision. In his latter regional career, he did beat a couple of decent names in Bevon Lewis and Nyle Bartling, but Lewis has imploded since leaving the UFC and the Bartling win was a mid-round guard sub in a fight that Bartling was winning.
The good news is that Walker is pretty active, and tries pretty hard. He is willing to attempt a lot of takedowns, and he’s pretty long for the division standing 6’4” with a 78-inch reach. His submission grappling skills are OK, and when he gets top position, he’ll definitely carry some finishing upside.
It’s just difficult to project Walker as a fighter who can land takedowns consistently at this level. He already failed in that aspect in his debut and on the regional scene, he’d get taken down without too much difficulty.
On the feet, Walker doesn’t have a massive sample of distance exchanges but I haven’t loved what I’ve seen. He landed some flurries against Menifield but was still outlanded at distance 78-51, and he’s defending strikes in total at 43 percent. He does seem tough and tenacious but I worry about him getting hurt in the long run.
Overall, Walker rates out as the type to win ITD against lower level fighters, based on grappling and pace. But he’s not a phenomenal athlete, nor is he super skilled in any one area of the game, so he seems pretty defensively vulnerable to me.
I have to favor Jacoby over Walker in this matchup. On the feet, I think Jacoby is clearly better, more skilled, and more technical. This is LHW and there’s general variance in striking exchanges. If Walker hurt Jacoby, I wouldn’t be stunned.
But I think at distance, Jacoby can probably pick him apart and potentially knock him out. I just don’t see the tools from Walker to change the dynamics of the fight.
What he’ll need to do is get on the inside, and clinch and wrestle. In the clinch, he should have more success than at distance. If he can land another six takedowns, he can win.
But I don’t think his wrestling is great, and Jacoby can scramble up just fine. Even if I projected two takedowns for Walker, I wouldn’t expect him to get much done.
The good news is that Walker is tough, so by default, if he hangs around, he can come back and maybe find a path to win. I don’t see him getting KOd with the first shot Jacoby lands, and sometimes Jacoby is very willing to go the distance and point fight.
If Walker can’t get takedowns though, Jacoby might just run him down. I wouldn’t be surprised by a mid-round TKO where Walker kind of just gives up.
I am slightly afraid of every time Jacoby fights because he’s nearing 40 years old and LHW is a tough division to predict. The base skills of Jacoby are clearly better than Walker’s though, and I expect him to win this fight more often than not.
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On DraftKings, Jacoby is priced up to 8.7k and will need a TKO to have a shot at the optimal.
Jacoby won’t wrestle, and his volume won’t be impactful enough at this price tag. I do think he throws enough volume that a late finish still puts him in play to be on the winning lineup, which I suppose is a positive compared to someone who only can win by TKO in RD 1. But I’d still prefer the early finish.
And really, Jacoby has done that too. He’s scored several early KO wins and scored in the 100-110 range. He is also +125 to win ITD here which is decent.
I am a little worried about Walker being too tough though, and forcing clinching exchanges. Jacoby also fought a slower pace against Petrino and scored 74 in a 3rd round KO.
It’s fair to label him as boom or bust ultimately. I don’t LOVE this spot with that dynamic in place, but if Jacoby wins, it will come via striking. If it comes via striking, a TKO is certainly on the table. It makes sense to mix him in as a secondary upside target at 8.7k.
Walker is priced at 7.5k and has upside in a win.
He just scored 119 points in a win, and if he beats Jacoby, I think it has to come from damage or grappling. So if Walker wins, there’s a decent chance he’s optimal.
Due to divisional variance, I’m fine using Walker as a low-end secondary target. He’s +325 to win ITD which is OK.
I honestly think it’s a really tough matchup for him on paper though, so this isn’t a spot I’m excited to be in on. With a smaller portfolio, I don’t mind coming in underweight to the field, hoping the field is more excited based on his last result.
There’s some inherent upside to Walker’s style in this matchup but I just don’t know if the skills are enough to get the job done.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jacoby by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko
Fight Odds: Donchenko -643, Morono +478
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Donchenko 9.6k, Morono 6.6k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential changing of the guard matchup here between Daniil Donchenko and UFC veteran Alex Morono.
Donchenko is a Ukrainian fighter who is 12-2 professionally. He won TUF by finishing Rodrigo Sezinando in his last matchup where we actually bet Donchenko.
Donchenko is just a big physical meathead. It is truly the best way to describe him. He is a very tough guy and has cardio to fight hard for 15 minutes. He is also well-rounded, and can strike offensively and wrestle somewhat decently offensively as well. I think his pace and physicality are his best attributes though.
On the feet, Donchenko is solid and likes to rely on pace, and he is brutal in close quarters and the clinch with his elbows and short punches. I don’t think he is as skilled at range and more technical strikers can likely outpoint him but I still think he is solid. He has power too.
Donchenko can also wrestle offensively a bit and beat up his opponents on the mat. He isn’t a great offensive wrestler but he is competent. I also think he is a solid defensive grappler and generally defends or works up well. He can just overwhelm fighters with physicality and pace and beat them up on the feet or on the mat.
I think Donchenko is a solid addition to the welterweight roster. He isn’t particularly elite anywhere but he is also not below average anywhere either and he is extremely durable and tough so I am excited to see him progress in the UFC.
Donchenko will be taking on Alex Morono. Morono has some holes in his game as he is not very athletic or physically strong. He also has weak defensive wrestling and only defends takedowns at 48 percent. He is a candidate to get stuck in bottom position for stretches as his get up game is not very strong.
Other than that though, Morono is honestly not a bad fighter historically. The best part of his game is probably his striking. He lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.78. Those are decent numbers. He also has good cardio and can keep up a steady pace.
Morono is a competent submission grappler, with a good guillotine, and holds a black belt in BJJ. He has never been submitted in his professional and amateur career which spans 39 fights.
Morono doesn’t really grapple offensively though. He lands 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes so his takedowns are basically non-existent.
Morono’s durability has cost him before though and that is my biggest concern with him as well as his age. He was knocked out by Khaos Williams, Niko Price, and Santiago Ponzinibbio. He was also knocked down by Matthew Semelsberger. He was most recently knocked out by Carlos Leal. So he just keeps getting hurt or knocked out so often and is clearly in the decline of his career.
That is why I have to pick Donchenko in this matchup. Donchenko has never been finished in his career and I think it is so much more likely that Donchenko wins by knockout here than vice versa. I also think Donchenko could maybe have some wrestling success. My guess is Donchenko works his way to the inside at some point and hurts Morono.
I do think Morono is decent at range though and I could see him landing and having success if Donchenko doesn’t close the distance so I wouldn’t be surprised by a little success from Morono here and there.
Overall though, Donchenko is just the younger, more physical and durable fighter so my guess is that carries him to victory.
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On DraftKings, Donchenko is the most expensive fighter on the slate and my guess is he’ll be among the more popular fighters as well.
Donchenko is coming off a devastating early knockout win which we hit on, and Morono is coming off a tough TKO loss. Donchenko is pushing -600 to win and he is also -260 to win ITD.
Everyone will pick Donchenko to win here and probably by TKO. With it should come a big DK score. He scored 123 in his UFC debut.
Honestly, Donchenko could be a priority. He is very aggressive and throws very hard, and I am quite concerned for Morono here. The UFC is obviously putting Morono in here to get knocked out and they probably will get their wish.
At the same time, I do want to acknowledge that I view Donchenko as a semi kill or be killed type. He hasn’t been finished yet but he probably will get knocked out sooner or later because he’s overly aggressive and lacks some defense.
While Morono got TKOd in his last fight, his opponent Leal landed SEVENTY NINE (79) sig. strikes in round one, and Morono landed 40. It’s not like one punch killed him. So there’s plenty of room for Morono to survive a while, and potentially room for him to land on Donchenko. The athleticism and power gap and durability gap does seem wide though.
At 9.6k, Donchenko will rate out as a great upside target who is somewhat likely to hit. I’m not sold he’s as safe as the betting line suggests and in an extended fight, he could underperform.
He also could mix in takedowns, could score knockdowns, and has definite RD1/2 KO equity. So if I can pay up, Donchekno is my top choice. I’ll eat the chalk on this one.
Morono is priced at 6.6k and isn’t a complete zero.
Morono is a technically fine fighter and there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges. He can land 100 strikes. He could win by KO, more so because Donchenko is hittable than because Morono has power.
It’s probably not worth investing in to be honest. Morono is +478 to win and +550 to win ITD. He’ll be sub 5 percent owned most likely though.
If you have a large portfolio to work with and want to mix him into a couple lineups, I think that’s OK for general striking variance, pacing of the matchup and some defensive questions on Donchenko. With a limited portfolio, I’ll likely just avoid him and bet on the big favorite to win.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Donchenko by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Niko Price
Fight Odds: Veretennikov -300, Price +250
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Veretennikov 8.9k, Price 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
We have a short notice replacement fight here as Nikolay Veretennikov takes on Niko Price.
Veretennikov was originally scheduled to compete on this card before his last opponent fell out, and the UFC called upon Price to step in on less than a week’s notice. It’s arguably a loser leaves town matchup as these two have one of the worst combined UFC records in recent memory.
Veretennikov isn’t a terrible fighter but he hasn’t had much success in his short UFC tenure, only picking up one win in his first four fights. He didn’t win on DWCS either though to be fair, losing to Michael Morales isn’t an outcome I hold against him.
Since then, he’s fallen to Danny Barlow, Austin Vanderford and most recently Punahele Soriano, only beating Francisco Prado via split decision.
Veretennikov has a combat sambo background and he seems to be a good athlete. He’s pretty experienced and somewhat well-rounded.
I also don’t consider him to be legitimately great at anything. I view him as a mediocre kickboxer who’s thrived on damage, which is fine. He’s had a lot of TKO success from the clinch and with knees. He also likes to throw spinning stuff which I’m not a huge fan of.
Outside of the power angle, I don’t view Veretennikov as a major threat. He doesn’t work at a super high pace and I don’t think he carries the volume to cleanly win rounds. He has gone the distance four times in his tracked fights, and never reached 60 significant strikes landed.
His striking metrics are somewhat competitive but he only lands 2.49 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.25 per minute with a 44 percent defensive rate. It’s just not enough activity. His only TKO loss came in 2014.
As a grappler, Veretennikov can both land takedowns and be taken down. On DWCS, he gave up some takedowns but it’s his more recent fights that are concerning.
Vanderford pummeled Veretennikov on the mat, scoring a TKO in the second round. Prado took him down three times and had him in bad spots. Most recently Soriano took him down four times, controlled him for 12.5 minutes and landed 163 total strikes. It’s clearly a path to beating Veretennikov.
But he also reversed position against Prado and landed a couple of takedowns of his own. He reversed Soriano once and actually put him in a dangerous RNC that could have finished the fight. I still view wrestling as a bigger negative for him rather than a positive.
I have a lot of issues with Veretennikov but he’s a semi-dangerous striker who’s capable of landing big shots. He can grapple offensively at times. His lack of volume and lack of defensive wrestling definitely kill off his ceiling.
Niko Price has been in the UFC since 2016 and has had a pretty strong career all things considered. He’s been known as a highlight reel guy who can score finishes out of nowhere, which includes multiple TKO wins from his back..
But he’s now lost four of his last five, and six of his last eight. He’s absorbing more than 5 strikes per minute and defending takedowns at 50 percent. I don’t have much hope for a turnaround.
One positive aspect to Price’s game is that he can throw in volume. While he gets hit a lot, he lands 5.13 sig. strikes per minute as well. He’s landed 108, 110, 150 and 129 sig. strikes in recent fights, and that does give him a path to victory.
He’s also a dangerous submission grappler so if you make a mistake, Price can finish you. He’s only landing 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes though.
Veretennikov is better for sure, but Veretennikov’s style is flawed. If he’s only landing 50-60 sig. strikes over three rounds, he’s liable to lose, and he’s already seen two split decisions in the UFC.
Price has shown a far greater volume ceiling and although I think Veretennikov will land and land cleanly, if he can’t hurt Price, Price at least has a path to edging out rounds with activity.
Veretennikov can also be taken down too easily, and although Price doesn’t wrestle often, he did land 5 takedowns in a win over Alex Morono in 2024. It would be smart of him to wrestle here.
The short notice aspect is obviously a negative for Price and perhaps suggestive he may not be able to push as heavy of a pace over three rounds. He’s also 36 years old.
I’m going to pick Veretennikov to win, probably with a mix of damage on the feet and a takedown or two, but it’s hard to be so confident in him given his lack of fighting process.
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On DraftKings, Veretennikov is priced at 8.9k and he has viability for upside.
The downside is that he’s only scored 77 DK points in his lone win, which clearly isn’t enough. Yes he can win ITD and he can reach a ceiling but it’s not a sure thing given his style. He’s -140 ITD though so he will rate out well.
The point is, Veretennikov doesn’t throw enough volume and doesn’t give himself enough chances to win by TKO. It still might come but I have to view him as a boom or bust type because of it.
If he simply did not win by TKO early, there’s a really good chance the fight extends and he underperforms at this price tag.
I like Veretennikov when I can’t easily pay up further, or as a pivot. I actually think he may come in lower owned than we expect due to box scores, and due to some other obvious targets surrounding him.
So in that frame, he could be viewed as a good option to be overweight on given the ITD line. I do still think he has a path to early damage and I wouldn’t be surprised if he achieved it. I just don’t love his pacing and would be totally fine to prioritize other options nearby.
Price is set at 7.3k and he could be a sneaky target.
I highly doubt anyone will be excited to roster him, myself included. He doesn’t win often and isn’t someone to bet on for career trajectory. Now taking the fight on short notice, I don’t expect much.
But his style matches up OK here as he can throw volume, and rounds will probably be close on the feet if neither man gets badly hurt. He can be taken down, but so can Veretennikov. Price can finish fights too.
He won’t carry a ton of finishing equity in this matchup and it’s not something I’d want to bank on, but for 7.3k with a low public ownership, I don’t mind using him as a low-end target to be unique.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Veretennikov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza
Fight Odds: Souza -155, Brasil +132
Odds to end ITD: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Souza 8.4k, Brasil 7.8k
Weight Class: 115
We have a mid-level women’s strawweight matchup between Bruna Brasil and Ketlen Souza.
Brasil has alternated wins and losses since her appearance on DWCS in 2022, now earning a 3-3 UFC record if you include her most recent victory over Shi Ming, which randomly took place on a Road to UFC card..
Brasil earned that contract on DWCS with an impressive head kick knockout over Marnic Mann, but I still wasn’t a big fan of her talent. She then got destroyed as a favorite by Denise Gomes in her debut, and has decisively lost to Loma Lookboonmee and Cong Wang as well.
In between, she’s picked up a decision win over Shauna Bannon, Molly McCann and Shi Ming.
Despite the initial knockout success, Brasil only has a few wins by knockout on her record and a couple more by submission. She’s a decision oriented kickboxer who fights in a karate style stance, and her best weapons are her kicks.
In a pure stand-up fight, Brasil has potential to keep range, and pick opponents apart. However, I tend not to trust in this style long term and I have a lot of worries about it.
One worry is with her physicality. I don’t think Brasil is a super great athlete and I don’t necessarily trust in her power.
I also don’t trust in her volume. In the UFC, she is averaging 2.66 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.82 per minute which is awful. In her three UFC decision wins, Brasil has only landed 31, 44 and 56 strikes, which backs up my point.
She wants to fight in slower paced matchups because she needs kicking range, and when she’s winning, I expect the fight to be somewhat boring.
I’m also extremely skeptical about her defensive grappling, which currently sits at 53 percent. She has been taken down by six of her last seven opponents. I’ve seen her defend with guillotine chokes a bunch, and both of her subs have come by guillotine. She also holds onto the neck too long after getting taken down, which is a red flag. While she’s not a severe liability from her back, she’s simply not a great wrestler.
Brasil has landed some takedowns of her own too and averages 1.46 per 15 minutes. Her offensive wrestling is adequate but I would only favor her to have success against a very low tier of competition. It is worth noting that she’s also taken down five of her last seven opponents, and has landed 3, 2 and 1 takedowns in her UFC wins.
Mostly, I think Brasil has some upside in stand-up matchups where she can control range and fight technically. I don’t think she’s a major knockout threat. She will probably have ground success against a low-level of competition, but I expect her to lose dominantly to strong wrestlers and well-rounded fighters.
Ketlen Souza has had a weird UFC career, earning a 2-3 record and most recently losing via split decision to Piera Rodriguez.
Her only wins have come against Marnic Mann and Yazmin Jauregui, while her losses have come to Karine Silva, Angela Hill and Rodriguez. She’s an experienced fighter who competed in Invicta prior to joining the UFC, and ultimately her level of competition has been strong here as well.
Souza debuted in the UFC against Karine Silva and got her knee torn apart with a leg lock early in the first round. While she hasn’t lost ITD since, her takedown defense looks pretty miserable at 50 percent, and grappling was a factor in both of her recent losses. She gave up seven takedowns to Rodriguez and many of them came easily.
Souza has eight wins by knockout, and she’s probably best as a striker, primarily as a come-forward boxer. However, I don’t think she’s particularly great in any aspect, and I wouldn’t label her as a real KO threat in this division.
She also has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and is capable of occasionally landing takedowns and working from top position. When she is on top, she doesn’t seem like a major submission threat though, and I would only expect her to outgrapple weak competition. She has only taken down one UFC opponent, which was Mann, so that isn’t a great sign for her future success.
Perhaps the best attribute to Souza’s game is that she’s gone the distance a bunch of times on the regional scene and in the UFC, which included a five-round victory over Kristina Williams in Invicta. She clearly has enough cardio to go the distance and has come on strong late in fights before.
She rates out as the type who can compete in rounds, primarily with her hands, but I don’t see major finishing upside and she might be a bit liable defensively.
This is far from my favorite matchup on the slate but I think the dynamics are somewhat straightforward. I originally like Brasil here because I think her style sets up well for her to have success with her kicking game at distance.
Brasil is a few inches taller and longer than Souza, and Souza will need to close the distance. Brasil can potentially keep her at bay, land strikes and evade, and win rounds. Brasil might even be able to land a couple of takedowns though I doubt much will come from it.
After taping the fight more extensively, I lean toward Souza winning. She clearly throws with more intent, and more power, and the optics favor her style. Yes, Brasil will have success at kicking distance but Souza should be a much more effective fighter on the inside.
So in some ways this is just a battle of range. Can Brasil keep Souza at kicking distance or not? I think she might be able to, but her lack of volume and effectiveness is not something that excites me. Souza might start rounds off slowly but all it might take is one or two flurries to turn the tide of the round.
This would also be a decent spot for Souza to wrestle offensively though I can’t really project her to. Even if she can land takedowns, she probably won’t do much with them.
I’m not a huge fan of either fighter and both fighters clearly have ranges where they can excel and win this fight. I lean slightly toward Souza doing more “damage” over the course of three rounds to win a mid-paced and likely competitive decision.
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On DraftKings, I’m not extremely interested in this matchup with the fight lined -325 to go the distance.
Souza is priced at 8.4k and I’d want exposure to her for a knockout potentially, but I wouldn’t be excited by a decision. Especially if she doesn’t wrestle, which is tough to project her for much success there.
Souza nearly won her last two fights, and lost split decisions, but if she had won them, she would have scored 61 and 59 DK points. She is now only +350 to win ITD.
I think she could hurt Brasil but it’s basically impossible to bet on. She’ll only be a contrarian play this week and still not someone I’d be excited to target. A potential small percentage is viable for uniqueness but unless she knocks Brasil out, I don’t think she has a great chance to be optimal.
Brasil is priced at 7.8k and doesn’t interest me a whole lot either.
I suppose a bull case for her is that she could land three takedowns. She did the same in a win against McCann though, and only scored 81 DK points. Her other decision win scored 71 DK points.
Brasil is also only +625 to win ITD which is awful and it’s tough to project much finishing equity. So we most likely need an outlier 5+ takedown performance for her to reach 90+ points and be competitive with the optimal.
I do think a 10x score is viable via takedowns but her floor is so poor that it doesn’t feel great to bet on the upside cases either. She’s a mild win equity play with a path, but not a great path to a ceiling. Therefore, she’s only a low-end secondary target and not a real priority in the 7k range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Souza by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Javid Basharat vs. Gianni Vazquez
Fight Odds: Basharat NA, Vazquez NA
Odds to end ITD: NA
DraftKings Salaries: Basharat 8.3k, Vazquez NA
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim/Brett
We have a super short notice fight here between Javid Basharat and Gianni Vazquez. Said Nurmagomedov pulled out of this matchup with Basharat and the UFC is calling upon the newcomer Vazquez on three days’ notice.
The other Basharat brother, Javid Basharat will look to rebound from a KO loss against the dangerous Said Nurmagomedov this weekend.
Basharat broke my heart a year ago when he was knocked dead by Ricky Simon. I had a bet on Basharat and he was winning the early exchanges easily, and has never had durability issues before. He was then knocked out badly by Simon in what I consider a pretty low percentage outcome as Simon is not a consistent standing KO artist.
The knockout was very real though and it was extremely brutal. So it is good that Basharat has taken a year off to let his brain recover. It will be interesting to see how he looks in his return this weekend against Said Nurmagomedov.
Basharat is a solid striker. He controls distance well and is composed on the feet. He mixes in a healthy dose of kicks and punches. I also really like how he mixes it up to the body. He lands 5.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.96 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. Obviously his recent KO does make me concerned but I will just consider it a random outcome for now and collect more data on Basharat as he accumulates more fights.
Basharat is also a great defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 83 percent. Basharat showed awesome defensive grappling against Jones and Gravely. He stuffed all three of Jones’ takedown attempts quite easily. He showed advanced techniques like limp legging out of single legs, etc. His defensive grappling also looked awesome against Gravely. He got taken down a couple times but scrambled out beautifully. He also defended Simon well.
Basharat can also mix in offensive wrestling himself and he has ruthless ground-and-pound. He lands 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes which is solid. I also think he is a capable submission grappler with front chokes. He has several submission wins on the regional scene.
Basharat is simply a good fighter. He has a lot of offense and is great defensively. I like Basharat.
Basharat did lose his fight against Aiemann Zahabi as a huge favorite though. It was a major surprise at the time. However, Zahabi has turned out to be a very good technical striker and defensive fighter, and it was extremely competitive. Zahabi outlanded Basharat 75-67 in significant strikes, and in hindsight Zahabi was just super underrated and improved, and the betting market didn’t realize it. So I don’t blame Basharat too much for that loss.
Gianni Vazquez is making his UFC debut with a 13-4-1 professional record at age 32, and he’s been fighting as a pro since 2014.
He’s earned four wins by knockout, three by submission and six by decision, and he’s lost twice by decision and twice by submission. His most recent loss came to current UFC fighter Edgar Chairez in 2023, and his other three losses came in 2020, 2018 and 2015.
Vazquez trains with Team Oyama and Ricky Simon and others. I should mention he’s a flyweight, although he won’t be super outsized, he’s obviously getting the short-notice call to enter the promotion, and then will drop back down.
He’s actually the only man to beat hot UFC prospect David Martinez, in 2021 by decision, and I think Vazquez is decent.
He’s a prototypical, scrappy Mexican fighter. He’s somewhat aggressive, he throws fair volume, and he seems tough. He’s not a super powerful guy and I wouldn’t consider him a major knockout threat, but he can hurt you via accumulation.
He’s only won by TKO twice in his last seven fights, and both came against the same man, and both in round two.
Vazquez is also a BJJ black belt. When he gets taken down, he can threaten a bit. I don’t think he has tremendous wrestling but it’s not awful. A lot of times when he’s been taken down, he’s popped back up very quickly.
His last loss to Chairez was by submission in round four, and it came when Vazquez actually landed a takedown, and Chairez immediately locked up a triangle/armbar. He actually choked Vazquez unconscious and the ref didn’t notice, and Chairez basically broke his arm while he was unconscious and the ref still didn’t stop the fight.. It was a crazy outcome that you can find on YouTube if you so choose.
So it’s not as if this guy has horrid grappling.. but it may not be an elite skill set of his despite the black belt.
One of his more recent wins came by anaconda choke, so like if he is facing a weaker grappler, he can have some success. Or in transitional sequences.
Overall, Vazquez rates out as a fine competitor. There is no area where he will dominate, so I doubt he goes tremendously far in the flyweight division. He can probably be outmuscled. But he seems tough, and will scrap with you. He’s got a bit of jiu-jitsu to threaten or fend off better grapplers.
He’ll probably be the type to outwork some lower level guys, and just lose to the upper tier who are better athletes and more skillful.
As far as this matchup goes, it’s hard not to favor Basharat with Vazquez coming in three days’ notice. However, I don’t think Vazquez is out of this fight.
I view Basharat as the more technical, and better defensive striker. He is likely to outwork Vazquez over the duration. Vazquez will want to make this more messy and scrap, and in that kind of matchup, rounds could still be competitive.
Basharat is also coming off the KO loss so who knows, maybe Vazquez could hurt him. I wouldn’t bet on it.
Basharat should be the more likely of the two to wrestle, and I will guess he’ll have success there. He can land 2-3 takedowns over 15 minutes, consolidate some top time and win rounds. But Vazquez pops up well and is still a BJJ black belt, so I’m not sold Basharat just dominates him there.
I don’t think Vazquez is very likely to land takedowns or threaten from top position.
This is just a tough short notice debut, up a weight class. Basharat has to be the pick. He likely wins a decision or maybe picks up a sub along the way. Vazquez will at least bring it, and perhaps he can force a scrappier fight where he’s more live.
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On DraftKings, my assumption is Basharat will now be chalk at 8.3k as a heavy favorite.
Unfortunately we may not get odds for a while, and who knows when DraftKings will price Vazquez into the pool. Given the short notice and the weight class jump, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Basharat in the -400 range. I don’t think he’ll have tremendous finishing equity though.
In two of his three decision wins, Basharat scored 65 and 83 fantasy points, so he certainly isn’t a lock to clear the optimal even in a decision.
However, his other decision win scored 98, which came with three takedowns, 5+ minutes of control and lots of total strikes. If he pursues a wrestling attack more aggressively, that would help his ceiling.
Basharat very likely will rate out as a super safe option at 8.3k, with some upside given the matchup dynamics. I assume he’ll be quite popular because of it.
Honestly, this is not the worst spot to shy away in tournaments. If Basharat is going to be 40+ percent owned, I wouldn’t necessarily call that good chalk. He won’t be a favorite to win ITD, I doubt. He still carries a ceiling but a mid-80s score is very much on the table. It’s also going to pull ownership away from Almeida who has elite upside in a win.
I expect it will be easy to build around Basharat this week and given the safety, he’s hard to avoid. I won’t mind having moderate exposure in all formats. The higher owned he is in large field tournaments though, the more I would consider pivoting away though.
Vazquez will probably be priced in the upper 6ks or low 7ks, where he has mild viability.
I don’t love the spot because Basharat doesn’t yield a ton of offense. So even in a loss that goes the distance, Vazquez isn’t guaranteed to score a ton of points.
His primary ceiling will come if Basharat has chin issues now and he can hurt Basharat, but it’s hard to bet on that. I doubt he’ll rate out well for the finish on paper.
At cheap, I suppose there’s some floor viability here and maybe you can even stack the fight in cash games if you need the savings, but otherwise, Vazquez is only a low-end differentiator. I do think there are paths where he can be competitive but I’m still not in love with the matchup and don’t plan to make any real investment here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Basharat by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura
Fight Odds: Cong -384, Moura +308
Odds to end ITD: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Cong 9.2k, Moura 7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Top striking prospect Wang Cong will take on grappling prospect Eduarda Morua in a fun women’s flyweight matchup.
I actually have liked what I have seen from Cong thus far in her career. She bounced back from an embarrassing upset loss to Gabriella Fernandes with a dominant decision win against Bruno Brasil, who she outlanded 103-31 in significant strikes.Cong looked good in that fight. She then dominated Ariane Lipski in her last matchup and outlanded her 143-63 in significant strikes.
I honestly thought Cong looked good in the Fernandes fight until she was finished. She outlanded Fernandes 46-18 in significant strikes and was winning clean. She then got hurt on the feet and submitted because she was badly rocked. It wasn’t a great look, but I do think it was a bit random.
Cong is a bit of a blue chip prospect. She is 32 years old and 8-1 professionally. She comes from a deep boxing and kickboxing pedigree and actually has a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko in 2015. Kickboxing is her base and what she thrives at and she has generally won her MMA fights by outstriking her opponents.
Cong’s striking is good. She has a good jab and good low kicks, and seems defensively sound despite her one loss to Fernandes. She throws in combination. She manages range well and can fight three rounds in her sleep. She didn’t look to have a ton of one punch power, but she did sleep Leonardo. Leonardo is terrible though with no durability.
I generally think if Cong wins by knockout, it will more so come from accumulation or a skill discrepancy more than anything.
Overall, Cong is a good prospect. She can strike for 15 minutes and is very technical as a kickboxer with great volume and she looks to understand basic grappling techniques enough to keep fights standing.
Good grapplers will probably have success against her but her defensive grappling looks okay at times and she is defending takedowns at 100 percent. She also has landed a few takedowns now and she seems to know how to float on top and land ground-and-pound. I do want to see her tested against more grapplers so this fight against Moura is honestly a great test for Cong.
Cong will be taking on Eduardo Moura. Moura is 12-1 professionally and is a grappling oriented fighter. She booked her ticket to the UFC by submitting her opponent on the Contender Series in the first round. In her UFC debut, she dominated Montserrat Ruiz on the mat and finished her.
Before the UFC, Moura basically dominated bad competition and almost always finished them in the first round. Honestly, I do like her takedowns. She is skilled on the mat from a top game perspective. She knows how to float in top position and advance from position to position. I do think she is an interesting prospect simply because she is a solid grappler in general.
Moura did show some weaknesses in her fight against Denise Gomes though. It was a close fight and Moura lost by split decision. Moura landed 5 takedowns and attempted 26. It was good to see her tenaciously going after her takedowns. However, she slowed down badly and lost the total strike battle 137-27. The fight just showed that if Moura can be resisted to a degree, she can tire and get beat up a bit.
I will say that 26 takedown attempts is A LOT and even through fatigue, Moura still landed a takedown in the third round against Gomes. So I will defend Moura to a degree. Still though, it is pretty clear that she is going to have to land submissions quickly or just experience mild resistance to cleanly win fights.
She honestly will probably be able to dominate the low tiers of this promotion with her early grappling storm. However, when she gets resisted she is going to have issues.
We have seen that since the Gomes fight as well. Moura was able to win the first couple of rounds early against Hardy and she clearly paced herself better, and only attempted 4 takedowns in that fight. She still slowed down and lost round 3 though.
She then fought Lauren Murphy in her last matchup and it was a similar fight. Moura attempted only 3 takedowns and won the first two rounds and slowed down badly and lost round 3. So even moderately paced fights made her tired.
That is a bad sign going against Cong who throws hundreds of volume and accumulation strikes. If this fight stays standing and extends past a round, Cong is going to tee off on Moura in my opinion, and has a great chance at an accumulation finish. I think Cong has a very good chance to win by finish in rounds 2 and 3. I will be picking Cong to win because of the striking and cardio advantages.
I still respect Moura’s grappling early in fights. I do think she can land takedowns early and maybe threaten with a choke and maybe even win a round. So Moura does have a little bit of hope here.
The issue is I don’t think Moura will be able to grapple easily past a round or so. Moura also hasn’t been grappling as urgently lately because she is afraid to gas. If Moura’s potential early grappling success doesn’t result in a quick ground finish then I don’t really see her winning.
So Cong is the pick. My guess is she finds a way to survive early and then just beats a tired Moura up.
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On DraftKings, this is an interesting matchup that you can target if you feel strongly.
The reason I phrase it in that way is because on paper, it doesn’t rate out exceptionally well. Cong is priced up to 9.2k and is striking dependent, in a matchup that is -105 to end ITD.
She’s coming off a 98 point decision win which is strong, but still potentially not enough at this price tag. And that came with nearly 150 sig. strikes AND a knockdown, so realistically, we won’t get that here.
Plus, Moura is likely to slow the pace down a bit early, and potentially wrestle. It doesn’t set up as an obvious spot on paper for Cong to smash.
However, there is this obvious striker vs. grappler dynamic, and more importantly, cardio dynamic where Moura slows down. If Moura is tired and can’t wrestle past the first half of the fight, she could get teed off on and finished.
I’m pretty open to that idea, even though Cong is +150 to win ITD. That number has dropped from +230 earlier in the week. I definitely prefer the path of Donchenko to win ITD, and I like Bautista for exposure in the main event. The rest of this range feels up for grabs to me.
Despite Cong not rating out extremely well, she’s viable. She’s only a secondary target due to the tough style matchup but there’s a win condition here that allows her to reach a ceiling, which I think is mildly achievable. I’d like some exposure personally though I will spread out.
Moura is priced at 7k and is mildly interesting as well.
She’s a legit good grappler, in a matchup where it’s obvious she is better on the mat, and much worse on the feet. She needs to have grappling success early and probably win ITD.
Cong has already been submitted in the UFC though it came from a TKO. I don’t hold that against her. However, it’s also worth noting she has fought zero good wrestlers. Defending a takedown from Bruna Brasil or Ariane Lipski means absolutely nothing to me. Moura is a big step up.
I do think Moura has a good shot to land an early takedown, and from there, a submission is possible. I’m not betting on it per se but it’s worth consideration.
I think having a bit of exposure to Moura in this matchup makes sense if you have a large enough portfolio to play with. She’s only +500 to win ITD but she could be a touch underrated there given her style. Even in a decision with two grappling rounds, Moura would contend for the optimal.
Moura is only a low-end play but I like the grappling vs. striking aspect for her and I think she may have early success. It’s worth a stab even if you’re just around the field percentage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cong by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz
Fight Odds: Gafurov -135, Wiklacz +116
Odds to end ITD: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Gafurov 8.2k, Wiklacz 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with bantamweights looking to keep their win streaks alive, as Muin Gafurov takes on Jakub Wiklacz. Let’s dive in.
Muin Gafurov makes his 6th walk to the Octagon this weekend and looks to add to his two fight win streak. Gafurov actually had a rough start at 0-3 under the UFC banner, before winning back-to-back decisions over solid competition in Rinya Nakamura and Kyung Ho Kang.
The Tajikistan fighter now sits at a 20-6 record, with a 85% finish rate over those 26 bouts. He also has been fairly durable, having never been knocked out. Although it is important to note we did see him dropped in each of his first two fights under the UFC banner. Within the UFC, he has gone to decision in 4/5 fights and we’ve seen him fight some solid level of competition. He has pulled through as an underdog, showing improvements in minute winning and decision making.
Through those 5 appearances, he doesn’t have the best metrics as he averages only 2.89 strikes landed per minute. This low volume approach has cost him before as he dropped his DWCS bout in a split decision to Chad Anheliger, despite landing 5 takedowns. Those takedowns are a solid attribute of Gafurov’s as he averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 70% takedown defense in return.
His ground game isn’t extremely dangerous grappling wise, but he does have the ability to scramble and control his opponents. He scored over seven and half minutes of control against Anheliger and over six and a half minutes against Kang, even out controlling the previously undefeated Rinya Nakamura last time as he pulled off that upset.
Overall, Gafurov is just pretty well-rounded. He can grapple well, has good physicality and limits striking damage well, absorbing only 2.21 strikes per minute. But with that low pace, he himself can be taken down, dropped and damaged, having him lose minutes. We also saw him put himself into an early sub to Said Nurmagomedov in 2023, although that is one of Said’s best moves.
Either way, Gafurov is extremely solid and someone you can’t just run through, but someone who doesn’t project as a top 15 talent due to lack of danger factor, pace and optics. I would like to see him improve his volume, cardio and durability before trusting him at too high of a clip in this division.
Jakub Wiklacz pulled off a great upset in his debut, beating the highly touted Patchy Mix, despite being a +255 underdog.
Wiklacz was a relatively unknown commodity prior to his debut. The polish fighter went 6-1-1 under the KSW organization, with his only loss coming to a guy he has fought five times. FIVE! Now, Jakub sits at a record of 17-3-2, with 10 of his wins coming by submission and 7 of his wins coming by decision. Yes, no KO’s is often rare for this level, but it shows you his style. Wiklacz wants to go out there and wrestle.
He has been KO’d twice and showed a 36% striking defense in his debut, so maybe it’s for better reason he’s grappling, but that style is pretty one dimensional. Despite this, he is a pretty solid grappler. I don’t think he is the best wrestler, as he himself can be taken down and was taken down 5 times by Patchy Mix. But he was able to reverse the position once and throw up some solid submission attempts.
So what does this all mean? Well, I don’t necessarily think Jakub is that good or well-rounded. But he has great work ethic, pressure and has one goal in mind, to get you to the mat. I would like it if he shored up his offensive wrestling as I don’t think he is the best in that department. But he does have a good work ethic and can be wiry on the mat.
From top, he does have solid submissions but can also be position over submission. He is always looking to get you out of there on the mat but doesn’t have the most technique or physicality to execute on the mat.
On the feet, he is hittable and we have seen him KO’d, but he’s persistent and will advance and throw volume to try to get into clinch situations. However we did see him look to gas out quite early in his last matchup, and resort to jumping the guillotine… which is not the best look. I hope that was a one off but I do have my questions about his cardio in high paced grappling matchups.
Overall, I’m not the biggest fan of Wiklacz but he has solid grappling and I like the purpose and intensity at which he’s fighting. Although he can be beaten in many areas, he will give it his all to close distance and get you out of there on the mat. However I would like it if he improved his striking defense, cardio, optics and overall wrestling before trusting him at too high of a clip in the UFC.
This fight is interesting because there is some recency bias linked into the line on both sides. Both guys are coming off quite impressive wins. Wiklacz was able to beat Patchy Mix on a very close controversial split decision where although I thought Mix won, he didn’t do enough to solidify it. Naimov was able to beat Nakamura based on a pure lack of any sort of fight IQ or urgency from Rinya, and think he largely beat himself there.
Either way, both fighters got decently lucky in their last bout, let’s not look too much into it. Instead, who is the better fighter? That’s the key factor here and I came out thinking it was Gafurov. He’s way more well-rounded, with the ability to take and hold down Jakub if he wanted to but also to outstrike him on the feet, which I think he will opt for.
Although I like Jakub’s process, and the fact he has way more urgency and determination, I just can’t see him dominating Gafurov on the mat too much. I don’t think he is physical enough to take him down consistently and his striking isn’t great. Sure he could beat him on pure activity by winning optics by actually doing something, but I’m also not sure he can sustain that high pace over the course of 15 minutes. So, I have to pick Gafurov to land the bigger shots on the feet and have the physicality and wrestling to decide where this fight should take place.
Overall, Gafurov should be the more likely minute winner on the feet and the more likely of the two to end up on top position, leading him to victory here.
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On DraftKings, this is a mediocre mid-range matchup.
Gafurov does project as the better minute winner but I’m not at all confident in him. In fact I may pick Wiklacz to pull off another upset.
The undeniable part of the matchup is that Gafurov is a better offensive wrestler, and should be the one earning top control time. He doesn’t do a whole lot with top time though, and Wiklacz is always hunting the guillotine, which Gafurov has already lost by.
He was reversed on the mat by Kang too, and even with five takedowns landed against Anheliger who sucks, he didn’t win. So I worry a little bit about his top time being meaningless, while wrestling could give Wiklacz opportunities to submit him, or reverse position where he’s a bigger threat.
On the feet, Gafurov is probably the better boxer but he is landing 2.89 sig. strikes per minute, and he’s been knocked down in multiple matchups. Wiklacz doesn’t have awesome durability but I think he’s a bit more active and better at kicking distance. So I could see either man having some success and I generally think it will be competitive.
Gafurov is priced at 8.2k and his floor is decent in a win. I do expect wrestling to be a part of his game plan and 5 takedowns is within the range of outcomes.
He still doesn’t do enough to smash, but we’ve seen him score 83 and 67 in recent decisions, and he would have scored 87 had he beaten Anheliger. So a mid-80s score is in play for sure.
Gafurov is only +250 to win ITD, which I guess reflects some KD upside but not a ton. I could see him being optimal with 80-90 points if others in this range fail but I’m not necessarily dying to target him.
Gafurov is a mediocre mid-range option for my taste and not someone I’m going to prioritize personally.
Wiklacz is priced at 8k and I think has more finishing equity. He’s lined +210 to win ITD so the books agree. I think a RD 1 guillotine is within the range of outcomes though I don’t like relying on it.
Otherwise, Wiklacz probably busts. He isn’t a good enough offensive wrestler to reach a ceiling, so he needs reversals and a submission most likely. Or a knockout which isn’t something to rely on.
I don’t see massive volume numbers from either side. And in his last win, Wiklacz only scored 69 DK points, again because he’s not landing takedowns.
This is a pretty weak floor spot and because of it, you don’t have to invest in Wiklacz. I do think he can win the fight but without a submission, I don’t think he’ll reach a ceiling.
There’s enough submission equity in the matchup for me to use him as a low-end secondary type target, and hopefully at low ownership, but I’m not expecting to be much above the field this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wiklacz by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Klaudia Sygula vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Odds: Sygula -142, Cachoeira +121
Odds to end ITD: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Sygula 8.6k, Cachoeira 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night gets started with a fun women’s bantamweight contest as the UFC veteran Priscilla Cachoeira takes on Klaudia Sygula in a high action, low skill type of matchup. Let’s dive in.
Klaudia Sygula makes her third walk to the Octagon this weekend after securing her first UFC victory last June against Irina Alekseeva. The Polish prospect looks to build off that last performance, where she was able to showcase her striking. She landed 101 strikes in that matchup and now averages 5.3 strikes landed per minute at a 53% striking accuracy.
Those metrics look good for Sygula, who now sports a 7-2 professional record. She has her victories spread out with 4 decisions, 2 KO’s and a submission, for a 44% finish rate.
However, she was finished in both her professional losses, both of which came on the ground. A submission loss to a fighter who is now 1-4 in her last 5 in 2021, and a ground-and-pound loss to Melissa Mullins in her debut. That ground game has been her downfall so far, as she has looked pretty poor from her back.
She has a 33% takedown defense and Mullins was able to dominate her once the fight hit the mat. Additionally, we have seen her submitted in the amateur scene which only goes to further prove how poor that ground game is.
Now there has been some social media evidence of her training at American Top Team and getting rounds in with Kayla Harrison, but the truth will remain that her ground game is a large hole in her skillset.
Additionally, although she is a solid technical striker from the outside, the lack of power and optics could hurt her in the future. Although she is very effective at landing kicks, and sticking and moving from range, she doesn’t fare as well on the back foot and with people in too close. Overall, she is a one-dimensional technical kickboxer who does seem to be improving her craft, but will remain a hard to trust option until she can prove to keep fights standing.
Priscila “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira has had a wild ride inside the UFC. Now sporting a 5-7 record inside the Octagon, Cachoeira has had her ups and downs with the organization. I mean, she made her UFC debut as an undefeated prospect, against Valentina Shevchenko of all people in 2018.
Since then, her fights have been quite easy to call. Zombie girl is a very one-dimensional fighter. She is a powerful boxer who will go forward, absorb plenty of damage and look to take your head off. She will look to kill you on the feet or struggle once she is put on her back.
Her chin looked indestructible until her last bout, where Jocelyn Edwards finally cracked it with a pretty brutal right hook. That durability will now have to be tested once again, and without it, it’s hard to have hope because that was the best attribute of her game.
Despite all pitfalls (which we will talk about shortly), the one truth we knew is that Priscila was going to put her head down and eat one to give one. Defensively, that is an issue as she is absorbing 7.23 strikes landed per minute with a 43% striking defense. She is always on the front foot looking to land damage, and has 62% of her wins coming by way of knockout, which is a display of her power.
The big issue for Cachoeira however, has always been the grappling. She has been submitted 4 times and that ground game is truly quite awful. It says she has a 67% takedown defense, but if you look back at her losses, they typically come on the mat. 11 minutes of control, 326 total strikes absorbed against Jasudavicius. 3 takedowns with 9 minutes of control time and 105 strikes absorbed against Maverick. Round one submission loss to Robertson. I could go on.
Truth is, if you can take down Cachoeira, she is a fish out of water on the mat and you can often control her and finish her. That has always been her weakness and something to note, as well as something that has to be shored up before you can trust her too much at the UFC level. But aside from that, Zombie Girl is a dangerous striker with plenty of power, solid forward pressure and good optics, despite a complete lack of a ground game or defensive striking.
I’m way more excited for this fight than I probably should be. It’s EXTREMELY low level. Both fighters have extensive holes in their grappling and should be exposed by the higher echelon of the division. What I will point out is that Sygula does have more paths. She can wrestle if she wants to, as we hope she’s improving that ground game working with Kayla Harrison. But she can also land the more technical shots from the outside if she wanted to in this matchup. I’m just not convinced she’s any good.
A win against Russian Ronda and being mauled by Mullins doesn’t give me the most confidence in her. I think Priscila is going to put her on the back foot, look to take her head off and make her question if she wants to be in there. From there, I think Cachoeira is the better pure boxer with better output and will have more damage on the feet. Sure, Sygula can land takedowns and control if needed, I’m just not convinced she’s going to revert to that now, although I could be wrong.
Give me the zombie girl as an underdog to finally get her striking match she wants and be able to pressure forward, landing the more damaging shots.
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On DraftKings, both sides have some merit considering this is basically a women’s bar fight.
Sygula is priced at 8.6k and I’m not super excited to roster her. You can put up big scores against Cachoeira, due to her lack of defense in all areas, but Sygula isn’t a super efficient fighter or finisher.
So yes, you can bet on Sygula outgrappling Cachoeira here but it’s equally likely she won’t even wrestle. Even if she lands a takedown, Cachoeira can survive and get up. Sygula could win by knockout but she’s not a major power threat.
At 8.6k, at least there are paths but none I feel great about. Sygula is +350 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong. I think she’s an OK secondary target with an adequate floor and a path to a ceiling, but I’m simply not confident in her skills to achieve it.
Cachoeira is priced at 7.6k and feels a bit underpriced here, as odds are moving in her direction.
She’s also hilariously +140 to win ITD as a +126 underdog, although I think she has more decision equity than what’s built in, a TKO is on the table. She’s a power fighter and could have a big power advantage on the inside.
At 7.6k, given this low level mess of a fight, sure I’m willing to take chances here. She seems like a decent price play, and officially has the best ITD line of any underdog this week.
My guess is she’ll carry some ownership as a popular value target who people enjoy to play, but I’m fine to come in around the field, and prioritize her above some other options nearby.
There’s no reason to be confident here but for the savings and built-in upside with Cachoeira’s style, she’s a decent secondary target with upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cachoeira by Decision (Confidence=Low)