Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Robert Whittaker vs. Reiner de Ridder
Fight Odds: Whittaker -166, de Ridder +141
Odds to end ITD: -265
DraftKings Salaries: Whittaker 8.4k, de Ridder 7.8k
Weight Class: 185
The former UFC middleweight champion Robert Whittaker will welcome the former ONE FC middleweight and light heavyweight champion Reinder de Ridder, who has picked up three consecutive wins to start his UFC journey.
De Ridder made a successful debut last November, picking up a late submission over Gerald Meerschaert, which he followed up with a quick submission win over Kevin Holland in January.
Most recently, de Ridder was able to score a surprising TKO finish over the hot prospect Bo Nickal in May, a victory that earned him his first UFC main event this weekend.
I have very mixed feelings about de Ridder at this point, and also think this main event is difficult to analyze given Whittaker’s questionable form.
For starters, I can’t say I’m overwhelmingly impressed with de Ridder’s recent successes. I couldn’t care less about a grappling based victory over Meerschaert, especially one where de Ridder lost position and looked exhausted late in the fight. And a grappling based victory over Kevin Holland doesn’t mean much to me either, as Holland has made a career of disappointing on the mat and making mental errors.
The victory over Bo Nickal can be viewed as an impressive feat, given that Nickal was a blue chip prospect and thought of by many as a future champion. On the other hand, Nickal certainly did not look the part against de Ridder, and all it took from de Ridder was one nice scramble and some knees in the clinch to halt the hype train.
I do quite like the grappling skills of de Ridder in general and I view them as his primary path to victory at the UFC level.
De Ridder has a background in Judo and is a capable wrestler as well, with a pretty strong top game. He is a solid submission grappler and has picked up 14 submissions in his pro career, including five (or more) by RNC.
He’s pretty skilled at taking the back and has a nice choke series in general that will continue to be a threat to the mid-levels of the division. He can also overcommit on submissions and lose positions at times, which I don’t love.
On the feet, de Ridder is pretty mediocre. Most of his fights take place on the mat and on the few occasions where he’s been forced to stand, he’s been beaten up or knocked out.
He’s fought very little distance time in the UFC thus far and even his striking success against Nickal was primarily from the clinch. I wouldn’t trust him at distance for an extended period and he may still be a defensive liability there, but he’s at least competent offensively in bursts and his striking can still be a factor as long as he’s in control of the grappling exchanges as well.
Robert Whittaker has made a career out of being a strong defensive wrestler and beating dudes up on the feet.
It’s a skill set that led him to becoming the world champion, and I’d say it’s still among his biggest strengths.
The problem with Whittaker is that he’s taken a lot of damage over the years, and seems to be wearing down a bit athletically.
I really didn’t love how Dricus Du Plessis threw him down to the mat in their recent matchup, and obviously Whittaker is coming off a dominating defeat to Khamzat Chimaev who took him down and crushed his jaw.
Those aren’t terrible losses, but it just makes me feel like Whittaker is cracking a bit, and so he becomes more difficult to trust.
On paper, I still like this matchup for Whittaker. I think he has the defensive wrestling skills to keep the fight upright for the majority of time, and he still is defending takedowns at a strong 81 percent overall.
Even with 1-2 takedowns landed, I’m not sold de Ridder can easily teleport to the back and choke him out. Maybe he can accrue some top time but I’d guess Whittaker can survive.
On the feet, I consider Whittaker to be the better boxer and he’s far more experienced in stand-up competition than de Ridder. Whittaker lands 4.54 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.41 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate.
He’s also gone the five round distance many times, and I would trust him more than de Ridder down the stretch.
I do not believe de Ridder is some world beater, so Whittaker’s form may really play a major factor in this matchup. At his best, I think Whittaker can defend takedowns just fine and outbox de Ridder. At his worst, he might not put up much of a fight.
I think it’s fair to project de Ridder for a bit of success overall, just because he’s shown the willingness to pursue takedowns and Whittaker has been a bit poor on the mat recently. De Ridder is also bigger, standing four inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage as well.
I would not be shocked to see de Ridder clinch again, wrestle a bit, and outmuscle Whittaker early. Maybe he takes the back and threatens for a choke. Maybe he lands some hard shots in the clinch again like he did to Nickal.
At least on paper, finishing Whittaker should be far more difficult than finishing any of de Ridder’s previous opponents, though, and so if Whittaker can survive, he can probably still force the boxing exchanges he needs to land some damage and take over the fight.
I suppose I just don’t feel confident either way at this point. I am honestly extremely nervous that Whittaker’s takedown defense won’t look as strong as it used to, and that he will give de Ridder some early opportunities. Whittaker has also been hurt a lot standing so it’s not an impossibility there either.
I do still favor Whittaker in the championship rounds though. I would expect him to be the cleaner striker over the course of five rounds. I’m unsure how easily he will pull away though and he might have to play more defensively in the early going.
This is a good test for de Ridder at the least to see where he stacks up in the division. I’m hopeful that Whittaker has enough in the tank to regain his momentum and pick up another win, but I’m simply not too confident in what version of Whittaker we will see.
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On DraftKings, this is kind of an odd main event but I suppose it’s one that I’ll be targeting regardless.
I do not feel safe with either side, and I’ll say that up front. Yes Whittaker might win, but it’s quite possible that a win could be a mild paced, striking based decision for Whittaker which won’t allow him to reach a ceiling.
On paper, de Ridder is the better fantasy target and he’s put up some big scores in his three fights thus far. But if he can’t land takedowns, it seems unlikely he will be able to reach a ceiling either.
Still, de Ridder is priced down to 7.8k and has just put up 106, 114 and 110 in his three UFC performances. With Whittaker coming off a loss to Chimaev, I’m sure the public will be high on de Ridder at 7.8k and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him more popular than Whittaker outright.
He is the easier of the two plays in my mind. If de Ridder wins, grappling is very likely involved and I think a finish is pretty realistic as well. He is +150 to win ITD which is decent and I feel fairly confident he will exceed value in a victory.
It makes sense to have moderate exposure or more to de Ridder on this slate, depending on how high you are. Of course if he loses, he won’t be optimal, and he’s still the underdog at +141 to win.
Whittaker is also +150 to win ITD at 8.4k, but there’s more risk of a mid-late round finish that underwhelms on DK.
Whittaker likely won’t be wrestling offensively, much or at all, and I wouldn’t count on tons of volume here. I could see an 80-strike, mid-round TKO that scores 90 points, or a five-round decision that scores even less. It’s still not horrible at 8.4k but there’d be more room in my mind for Whittaker to be pushed off the optimal in a victory than de Ridder.
Quite honestly, I’m probably just splitting my exposure here and moving on to other fights where there’s a larger edge.
Both sides should be highly owned on a 12 fight slate. If Whittaker is much lower owned than de Ridder, he’d be a strong play, but I still think it’s likely both sides cross the 40 percent mark.
In that case, I’d like exposure to both. It makes sense to target de Ridder for price, grappling, and ceiling. And it makes sense to target Whittaker based on historic metrics.
I’m not sure I can pick against my guy Whittaker so I’ll take him to get his hand raised, but with form questions at this stage of his career, I will feel the safest being relatively split on DraftKings ownership.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Whittaker by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee
Fight Odds: Yan -372, McGhee +299
Odds to end ITD: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Yan 9.3k, McGhee 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun striking matchup here between UFC veteran Petr Yan and rising prospect Marcus McGhee.
Yan is a well-rounded fighter with an endless gas tank. He also has the power to consistently hurt and finish opponents. Yan lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.13 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent.
Those are good metrics given that Yan has fought solid competition as well. Merab also kind of made those metrics worse as Merab landed 175 significant strikes on Yan.
Yan is simply a good boxer with a relentless pace. He utilizes a shell type of boxing guard to defend his head and will just pressure and go to work with his hands. He is a great technical boxer.
I do think Yan is more suitable to win five round fights than three round fights though. Over five rounds, I would favor him over most bantamweights in the world. In three rounds, I think a few guys are live to beat him for a couple of reasons.
First, in five rounds, those extra rounds just allow Yan to wear down his opponents with his pace. Obviously, three round fights do not allow Yan to use his cardio as a weapon nearly as much. Furthermore, Yan is a builder and sometimes it takes him a round or two to get his range and pressure in flow. We have seen Yan give away round one several times, including to Aljamain Sterling in their second fight, to Cory Sandhagen, and to Song Yadong. That is a dangerous thing to do in three rounds where rounds in the bank are critical.
Yan is also a capable grappler. He has fantastic TDD at 83 percent and is really difficult to keep on the mat (unless you get a body triangle like Aljo did).
Yan is also underrated as an offensive wrestler. He lands 1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about three takedowns per fight. He isn’t a traditional offensive wrestler but he is capable, especially when he has his opponents tired. He also has RUTHLESS ground-and-pound in top position which he showed against Jose Aldo.
Yan will be taking on Marcus McGhee. I have a soft spot for Marcus McGhee. I was impressed by his regional tape before his UFC debut against Journey Newson. I picked him to win as an underdog and he absolutely dominated Newson. He easily won the striking exchanges and then submitted Newson in round two.
McGhee then followed up that win by knocking out JP Buys in round one. McGhee then beat up and knocked out Gaston Bolanos in round two. That was an impressive performance to me. McGhee showed he can grapple a bit, but he actually beat up Bolanos (who has a striking background) at range quite easily. McGhee outlanded Bolano 52-28 at distance before knocking him out.
In McGhee’s most recent win, he fought Jonathan Martinez and outlanded him 102-48 in significant strikes to a decision win. I actually thought McGhee looked super sharp with his boxing in rounds one and two. He then got calf kicked against Martinez in round three and was put in a lot of danger. Martinez is a bit of a specialist with his calf kicks so I don’t think McGhee will have to worry about that going forward much. I actually thought McGhee looked great in boxing range and he schooled Martinez in the first two rounds.
McGhee is super physical and is kind of a specimen. He is just bricked up and strong for this weight class. He is 10-1 professionally with nine wins coming by finish.
Standing out of the southpaw stance, this guy literally walks forward with no backstep and throws power strikes. He has some really damaging head strikes / punches and some devastating leg kicks. He also can fight three rounds just fine.
This guy just hits really hard. Even his non KO strikes that land are very impactful. I tend to think he can give a lot of guys issues on the feet. He has good hands in the pocket, and he kept countering Bolanos with hooks in the inside. I really like his power striking overall. He is aggressive and lands really hard.
McGhee has lost one fight via RNC against a BJJ black belt. I actually think McGhee’s takedown defense is pretty competent. Even in that submission loss, he was working up to his feet. He just gave up his back. I think back taking body triangle guys will be his kryptonite.
However, I do think he can generally defend takedowns against average grapplers. McGhee doesn’t really look to wrestle offensively much but he did submit Newson and did have a takedown on Bolanos. I think he can outmuscle some lower level grapplers, but I generally think power striking will be his path to victory as he gets steps up in competition.
As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Yan and I am going to pick him to win. He is much more experienced than McGhee and I do think if anyone has grappling success it will be Yan who is an underrated offensive wrestler.
However, McGhee has strong TDD and there is a good chance these guys just strike where I actually think this is going to be very competitive. Yan starts slow and I honestly may favor McGhee in round one. McGhee is also just very good in boxing range and his head strike metrics are quite strong. Yan doesn’t damage calves like Martinez and I think that will allow McGhee to just box with Yan in a striking range where McGhee is comfortable. Both guys have a lot of power and I think either could hurt the other.
Overall, I do think Yan is the more well-rounded fighter. Yan is probably the better kicker and is also a good offensive wrestler. I really do think this is going to be close though, and I do think McGhee will get a round. I am expecting a pretty competitive striking fight that goes the distance. I will pick Yan but I think the line is a bit too wide.
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On DraftKings, I’m not too interested in paying up for Yan at 9.3k.
In a three round fight, he’s just much more limited. Volume won’t necessarily get it done at this price and he’s not a guarantee to wrestle much. Plus, he often starts slow, so it’s just a recipe for disaster unless he’s winning by KO early.
That does seem like the most likely case for Yan to be optimal, if he can score the early KO. But the fight is -260 to go the distance here which is a major concern, and Yan is only +300 to win ITD which is awful for this price.
That’s going to put me off Yan completely, with a more limited portfolio. There are several other viable targets in this price range, and I would probably rather roster all of them. My hope is that with the name value on Yan, and his decent box scores from five-round matchups, the public will be on him to a degree.
He just doesn’t rate out well from a floor or ceiling perspective without a finish. You’re hoping for an outlier wrestling performance or something, or just the random, variance based KO.
Obviously Yan is a good fighter and a good boxer, so it’s not completely out of the question. He’s just a very low priority for me at this price and in this matchup.
McGhee at 6.9k isn’t a must target either.
I do think he has some sneaky upset equity here, and the fight could be close, but I also wouldn’t bet on a ton of offensive success.
Maybe McGhee can land 80 strikes and win a decision? I’m not sure he’d even score 65 points in that case though, and I don’t see a ton more upside.
McGhee isn’t likely to wrestle and isn’t likely to win by KO, with a poor ITD line of +550. He’s not the worst play in the world for a cheap price tag, but as a big dog, it doesn’t feel like the best risk/reward option of the lower tier.
I may consider a small sprinkle of McGhee when I’m forced to punt but I’m not sold on his upside in this matchup so I wouldn’t label him as an exciting play.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yan by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Odds: Magomedov -633, Barriault +472
Odds to end ITD: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Magomedov 9.6k, Barriault 6.6k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger here between Shara Magomedov and Marc-Andre Barriault.
Shara Magomedov has become a bit of a fan favorite as he has a unique look and something going on with his eye. Magomedov is now 4-1 in the UFC and 15-1 professionally, with his one loss coming in his last fight to Michael Venom Page where Page skated around and evaded the strikes of Magomedov to win a couple of rounds.
Magomedov is a striker through and through and more specifically a damaging striker. He has some powerful and damaging strikes and he’s very effective. His bread and butter are his kicks and he can throw a variety of them including standard kicks, question mark kicks, and axe kicks. He has great leg dexterity and truly is dangerous with his strikes. He has great body work with his kicks.
He is landing 5.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 4.13 in return.
I do question the defense of Magomedov though. Statistically he only defends strikes at 42 percent, and I do think there are openings there for his opponents to land. He is also not a great grappler. He does not land takedowns himself and we have seen him taken down six times by non wrestlers and controlled to a degree. His takedown defnse isn’t awful at 72 percent and he does give his opponents issues by damaging them from his back. However, he will surely get exposed by a good grappler at some point.
Still though, Magomedov is offensively dangerous with his strikes and he will win plenty of UFC fights with his kickboxing at this level. I think he is quite dangerous on the feet.
Magomedov will be taking on Marc-Andre Barriault. Barriault is a tough Canadian. Barriault lands 6.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.57 in return. He is a pressure striker who likes to walk down his opponents, dirty box in the clinch, and get in their face. He has good cardio with a good pace. He can wear down opponents big time and start to overwhelm them.
I don’t consider Barriault a super slick or gifted striker, but he is decent and he definitely knows that his cardio is his main weapon.
My main concern is that Barriault’s durability has declined. I historically had considered his durability a strength. He was then knocked out by Chidi Njokuani and Joe Pyfer. I gave him a bit of a pass. Those two are some big hitters. I still didn’t like that he had been taking damage though.
Then in Barriault’s most recent loss, he was knocked out by Dustin Stoltzfus which is a concern of the highest order. Stoltzfus is not even a heavy hitter and Barriault getting slept like that was shocking and alarming. I will definitely be skeptical of Barriault’s durability going forward now. He at least bounced back with a quick knockout win against Bruno Silva but Barriault wasn’t tested at all in that fight.
Barriault is an okay grappler, but he likes to clinch and dirty box more than actually land takedowns. He lands 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 1.5 takedowns per fight. So you can’t expect him to really land many takedowns. Barriault seems like a guy who is more likely to land takedowns if his opponents get tired more than anything.
Barriault is a competent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at a decent 67 percent and scrambles up to his feet decently. Anthony Hernandez had his way with him on the mat but there is no shame in that.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Magomedov is just a more talented and lethal striker here. I also think Magomedov has a clear durability advantage as well. Barriault has been knocked dead often now by less dangerous opponents than Magomedov. My guess is Magomedov just lands consistently and it eventually leads to a knockout.
I do think Barriault is tough and he will come forward if his chin holds up. He could just stay competitive by being aggressive, clinching Magomedov, and making this ugly. Perhaps Barriault could just win due to variance too as he may be able to just catch Magomedov and land something big.
However, I just think Magomedov is clearly faster and more dangerous and diverse as a striker. I think he will land somewhat easily on Barriault and it will eventually lead to damage and most likely a finish.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a fairly straightforward spot in that it should be semi-high paced, with knockout equity on the Magomedov side.
The problem is that he’s priced up to 9.6k, and absolutely needs the knockout to be optimal.
In two decision wins, Magomedov has scored 97 and 74, which very likely isn’t enough at this price tag. Plus, that bigger score came from him landing 100+ strikes off his back Silva, which isn’t likely to be replicated here.
In that, I still view Magomedov as fairly boom or bust, and he doesn’t need to be a priority in that sense. Barriault is a pretty good and experienced fighter and won’t just fall over.
Still, he’s shown durability issues as well, and an early knockout definitely feels like a reasonable outcome for Magomedov. He’s -175 to win ITD which is pretty good for the price tag.
If you can afford him, Magomedov will rate out pretty well and he could be viewed as a priority in this top end. My gut feeling is that we’ll see a few finishes in this price range directly below him, so Magomedov may not be necessary, but I’m still very willing to play him if I have the salary available to me.
As always, this comes down to price. But I do consider Magomedov a strong target overall and he has a clear path to 100-110 if he can secure the early finish.
Barriault is super cheap at 6.6k and is viable to a degree.
I actually think this fight could be competitive if it plays out over the duration. Barriault is a known volume and pressure fighter, so he absolutely has the offensive production in his profile to win. Plus, he’s probably the better wrestler of the two.
He’s also clearly the less technical striker here and likely less durable as well, so it’s still a tough hill to climb. And I’m not sure he has tremendous upside in that landing 120+ strikes will be difficult, as will be finding that knockout.
Barriault is +700 to win ITD which is pretty weak. I would be fine if you wanted to cross him off this week to limit your player pool to fighters with more win equity on paper.
I do still think he has some viability in large fields, with a path to victory. A sprinkle is fine, especially for the price and leverage against Magomedov. But he probably should get outstruck and lose so I wouldn’t aim to be particularly high on this spot.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa
Fight Odds: Almabayev -121, Ochoa +104
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Ochoa 8.2k, Almabayev 8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Asu Almabayev bypassed the Contender Series back in 2023 after a lengthy regional run in Europe. He’s quickly ascended the ranks over the last two years and now finds himself in the top 10. He’ll be looking to rebound after a loss to Manel Kape earlier this year – he’s 4-1 in the UFC and 21-3 as a pro. Jose Ochoa was originally slated to fight on the Contender Series last August but had to withdraw from the fight. He dropped a competitive decision in his debut but is coming off a solid win last month over Cody Durden. This week, he’ll be stepping in on short notice to replace Ramazan Temirov – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Almabayev is a wrestler/grappler by base but has okay “euro-coasterish” standup.
He’s not going to be high output but does time his blitzes and flurries well, coupled with some good spinning attacks.
He’s not a perennial power threat with only three KOs in 21 wins but he does have some pop in his blitzing straights and high kicks. In his last win, he dropped Nicolau with an uppercut in round three which played a bigger role in that fight.
Based on his style, he’s rarely getting “volumed up” but can be hit with singular range shots or when guys time his entries in.
That obviously changed in his last fight with Kape who applied effective pressure to Almabayev throughout the fight, where the hand speed and boxing combinations of Kape gave him some bigger issues, eventually leading to the round three finish. In some fairness, Kape eye poked him multiple times and Almabayev was in on a TD when the fight was stopped so it’s not as if he got put out cold, but was clearly losing the striking exchanges.
Overall, I’ve seen similar styles to Almabayev before where it isn’t going to blow your hair back optically per say, but it’s a style that has a good floor and limited ceiling traditionally.
Ochoa’s a lankier southpaw at flyweight standing 5’7” with a 67” reach.
He comes out of the Chute Boxe camp in Brazil and it shows as he operates like many of their other fighters with that pressure thai based style. He likes to command the center in his fights, walk opponents down and brings a diverse arsenal of attacks between punches, kicks, knees and elbows.
He’s proven dangerous as well with seven of his eight pro wins coming via KO/TKO, and he has hurt opponents with all the different weapons mentioned above to both the body and head.
His style is a bit chaotic, but it’s also controlled chaos, at least more so in recent years where he’s picking his shots better.
Given the quality of competition he’s fought, he hasn’t faced much striking based resistance. Opponents have landed some bursting attacks on him here and there but he’s by and large either evading them or just taking them well.
But that obviously changed a bit in his debut taking on Kavanaugh who’s a pretty interesting prospect – while the overall strike counts were close, Kavanaugh was winning the bulk of the exchanges, outside of late in round two where Ochoa was able to hurt him.
He ate some flush shots from Durden in the last fight as well but ultimately outlanded him 30-9 in totality and knocked him out early in the 2nd round.
Given that he’s originally from Peru, I’d still continue to assume he’s got a good chin as most guys do who come from that region.
Overall, I largely like what I’ve seen from Ochoa offensively so far as a guy who’s only 24 years old and training at a solid camp, but he did ultimately realize more struggles against a more capable opponent with better footwork in his debut.
How it plays out: Off the top, Ochoa will realize a size advantage of 3” in height and 2” in reach. I obviously favor Ochoa on the feet but the striking is interesting here to a degree. As noted, there’s more marauding components with Ochoa and that definitely gave big issues to Almabayev from Kape last time out. But Kape’s arguably the best striker in this division who’s also a better athlete, more sophisticated and faster than Ochoa – so I don’t think it’s an apples to apples comparison. Ochoa realized a lot of success on Durden but Durden also stood in front of him. What’s interesting in contrast is Ochoa’s debut against Kavanagh because Kavanaugh didn’t stand in front of him and didn’t engage in extended pocket exchanges. Kavanaugh is a better striker than Almabayev but the point is that Ochoa still didn’t get much offense off in the aggregate – 14.5 minutes at distance and only landed 49 strikes. Almabayev isn’t going to stand in front of Ochoa either so it’s more of a benchmarking issue. Once again I still obviously favor Ochoa standing because he’s bigger, more powerful and his optics are better but I do feel Almabayev’s style is live to drop Ochoa’s output.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Almabayev’s official credentials but he’s best on the ground.
He will stand a bit in his fights but he’s pretty consistent to shoot TDs which is where he’s found his primary career successes.
I particularly like his entries as they aren’t telegraphed, they’re quick and he’s shown he can wrestle to both the legs and the body effectively – but he particularly excels to the legs which is something I like to see and can chain attacks together.
When on the ground, we’ve seen a bit all over the board from him in terms of approach.
There are certain fights where: he’s fine to just control within the guard, be aggressive with GNP, proactively be looking to pass where he’s got some quick transitions to the back or some combination of those.
But his general control with grounded opponents regardless of approach has generally been very good in terms of being able to rack up minutes – even in the situations it hasn’t on a per TD basis, he’s done a good job of staying on opponents and reshooting.
Nine of his 21 pro wins come via submission where he primarily excels in taking the back with seven of those ninesubs coming via RNCs.
Defensively, he’s not immune to being taken but he’s rarely been held down outside of the Ulanbekov fight early in his career and the 1st round against Doskalchuk – he still wasn’t really “flattened” much in that latter fight but did get grinded a bit early – Almabayev still ultimately out grappled him in the 2nd round and found a submission though.
Johnson found some brief positions on Almabayev and threatened a bit, but it was ultimately futile and Almabayev got out of the positions and grinded Johnson out. Makovsky reversed position to mount a few times in their fight, but he re-swept/scrambled in both instances.
More recently, Almabayev struggled grounding Nicolau and got caught in a tighter guillotine which lost him round two but he got out of it. He held Nicolau down after the knockdown in round three though.
Overall, Almabayev’s a solid Euro grinder with submission competency who’s not going to be easy to take down and hold down overall.
Ochoa’s a BJJ blue belt as of last year and there isn’t a ton to say with him on the ground.
I’ve only seen him shoot a few TDs where he’s landed some GNP, but opponents have been able to work up quickly.
He scored his first submission win as a pro back in the LFA where he locked up a standing anaconda choke off a failed TDA – he also got on the back of Kavanagh in his debut off a failed shot after hurting him where he threatened with an RNC but couldn’t finish it.
To date, his TDD has largely been strong as he does a good job of limp legging out of singles or gramby rolling out of body lock sequences.
Ochoa is dangerous in the clinch as well with his knees so that’s also aided in his TDD to discourage further commitment from opponents.
However, he did face a stronger wrestler last time out in Durden who went 2/4 on TDs – Durden got him against the fence early in round one where he got some time but Ochoa was able to wall walk. The 2nd TD Durden got was double leg in the open mat where Ochoa was aggressive in throwing ground strikes but didn’t work up which needs to be noted.
Overall, more so than the striking, I’d want a much larger sample of Ochoa on the floor before I can really assess his ground game but he’s training with high level black belts on a day-to-day basis which is good from a narrative perspective.
How it plays out: This is where the fight favors Almabayev. Despite some respectable concepts I’ve seen of Ochoa, his last fight with Durden suggests that he can be wrestled and controlled for periods. A primary difference between Almabayev and Durden though is that Almabayev’s a better transitional and submission grappler – I’d also strongly argue that he’s a better chain wrestler as well. The reality is, when Ochoa’s been taken down in the open mat, he hasn’t gotten back up. I’m not saying he can’t or won’t here because it’s a small sample but it’s what we have to go on. I also don’t think Ochoa has anywhere near the sprawling capabilities that Kape does. Ultimately, there’s some conjecture but Almabayev projects to land multiple TDs in this fight, is live for higher amounts of control and to threaten Ochoa from a submission perspective (which we haven’t seen yet). On the flip side though, we have seen Almabayev stuck in a handful of submission attempts now so I can’t say “all” the floor upside lies with him because Ochoa could threaten on entry – it’s probably going to be pretty tough to submit Almabayev though.
On what’s a relatively “meh” middle eastern card, this is one of the more intriguing matchups of the slate. While there are some binary elements to the matchup, there is some scope for both guys in the realms they’re projected not to excel in at the same time. I’m pretty high on Ochoa as a prospect like most people but I also think Almabayev is pretty good as well. I can see the arguments both ways. I personally come more out on the side of Almabayev as the guy with 2x the amount of pro experience, the guy who’s had a full camp (unlike Ochoa) and presents a style that can give Ochoa a lot of issues. I think it’s easy to have the take that Almabayev couldn’t get Kape down, got butchered, Ochoa fought a wrestler in his last fight, did largely well and finished him therefore Ochoa will win here. Maybe that is the paradigm but I think there’s more nuance to this matchup. I lean Almabayev.
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On DraftKings, this looks like an incredible buyback spot for Almabayev though it’s not a spot without risk, and I think Luke did a good job detailing the macro analysis of the matchup.
Essentially, I view this as a step down for Almabayev from Kape. Ochoa didn’t look particularly strong to my eye defending takedowns against Durden. I think in the first sequence, Almabayev could have taken his back. And then Ochoa didn’t get up from the second sequence.
Almabayev wasn’t urgent enough for my liking against Kape but maybe that taught him a lesson, plus he still shot six takedown attempts. I think he’s quite likely to have more success in this matchup and more control based success too. I think another 3-6 takedowns are in play over 15 minutes.
Granted, Ochoa will win the striking exchanges and if Almabayev isn’t more urgent, or simply cannot hold Ochoa down, he probably will lose. But Almabayev is more evasive than Durden and still lasted 10+ minutes with Kape without ever getting knocked down.
I think we’re getting a price discount on Almabayev here in a near pick’em, and he’s the spot I’d prefer to target on DraftKings.
At 8k, Almabayev is one of my favorite targets on the slate. I am NOT extremely confident he wins, but I do think he’s clearly the better wrestler and grappler and I think he’d be a much larger favorite if he hadn’t just lost to Kape, while Ochoa just beat Durden.
We know grappling scores very well on DK so if Almabayev does win, he should easily exceed value and could flirt with 100 points. He’s only +450 to win ITD but we’ve seen him score 105 and 118 in past decisions, as well as 70, so there’s at least upside here.
Ochoa is a good prospect and maybe he’ll prove just how legit he is here. But flying across the world on short notice against the best wrestler he’s ever faced doesn’t scream bullish to me. I’ll aim for moderate exposure to Almabayev and would be happy to be overweight on this slate.
Ochoa at 8.2k is a fine target as well but it’s just not my favorite spot.
In some aspects, it’s a binary matchup so if he can keep the fight upright, maybe he just does find the early killshot. I’m not opposed to rostering some Ochoa.
However, there’s a good chance in my mind that he gets taken down and held down for early portions of the fight. That will lead to the fight extending by default. Plus, Almabayev won’t just stand in front of him and eat shots like Durden.
So if the fight extends, Ochoa probably won’t be landing many strikes. He needs the KO, and he probably needs it in round one or two. Even Kape only landed 61 strikes in three rounds and only scored 70ish DK points. With a true KD he could have exceeded 80.
Ochoa has the better ITD line at +250 so he’s not a bad play. I don’t mind being in on this fight as a whole with the binary aspects.
I also think Ochoa is a far riskier target given his fighting style in this type of matchup, and is much more boom or bust in that sense. I would prefer to be underweight if Ochoa is going to come in as chalk, but I can see the merit for near-field exposure as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almbayev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Nikita Kyrlov vs. Bogdan Guskov
Fight Odds: Krylov -199, Guskov +168
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Krylov 8.7k, Guskov 7.5k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I doubt the cards will be needed here between Nikita Krylov and Bogdan Guskov. Both of these guys are very dangerous and there should be a lot of action in this matchup.
Krylov is a pretty good fighter and very dangerous. He is a skilled and powerful striker who is capable of hurting opponents. He lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.49 in return. Those are solid metrics. He is very aggressive and offensive minded. He actually outlanded Magomed Ankalaev 45-29 at distance in their fight but lost by getting controlled on the ground. On the feet, I really think Krylov is live to compete vs anyone in this weight class.
Krylov was recently knocked out against Dominick Reyes though. Reyes is dangerous but it was still not a good look.
Krylov is also a capable grappler on the mat. He lands 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes and against Johnny Walker, he showed he was capable of floating in top position. He outwrestled Oezdemir as well. He is also submission capable and has several in his career including his last win by triangle choke against Ryan Spann.
Krylov has had some issues defensively as a grappler though. He has been submitted a couple of times including to Jan Blachowicz and Misha Cirkunov. He was also controlled by Magomed Ankalaev. Krylov isn’t a perfect grappler and those fights clearly showed it. He has skills on the mat, he is just sometimes a bit chaotic which causes him to get submitted or reversed by better grapplers. However, I do think he has improved and that his grappling isn’t a major weakness of his game, especially at this weight class.
Krylov is just a solid UFC light heavyweight. He is well-rounded and offensively potent in all areas. His fights are very chaotic though so there is a lot of variance baked in.
Krylov will be taking on Bogdan Guskov. Guskov is from Uzbekistan but fights out of Russia with a 17-3 professional record. He was dominated by Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut but then bounced back with two knockout wins against Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann. He then submitted Billy Elekana with a guillotine in his last matchup.
Even though Guskov fights out of Russia, Guskov is generally a striker and mostly a boxer. He is pretty aggressive and he has some decent timing and speed on his punches. He has a decent 1-2 combination. He has power too, and 14 of his 17 wins have come by knockout. I think he is okay and capable of knocking out light heavyweights in the UFC.
It is hard to be too confident in Guskov though because he still hasn’t beaten many great guys. I also saw him get knocked dead by the one decent fighter on the regionals he fought in 2020. Furthermore, I have seen him taken down and outgrappled pretty badly too. I really question his defensive grappling. The Oezdemir fight was a bad look too.
I also haven’t seen Guskov in too many extended fights which is a concern. Most of his fights end early. I did see him still punching somewhat explosively in round two and three in a couple of fights, so he honestly may be fine in extended striking fights but I am not positive.
Guskov doesn’t wrestle offensively much. I don’t think he has great takedowns. However, in top position he does throw heavy ground-and-pound, and he has three submission wins. He can at least be in that position and look dangerous. My guess is that Guskov is striking dependent to win in the UFC though and his most likely path to victory is a knockout.
As far as this matchup goes, I do lean Krylov slightly just because Krylov is so much more experienced than Guskov. I also think Krylov is more well-rounded and may have a grappling path to victory here. I do think Krylov can land some takedowns and maybe even submit Guskov. Watching Oezdemir submit Guskov was concerning. I could easily see Krylov duplicating that success as Krylov is a decently skilled submission grappler.
On the feet, I also think Krylov is probably a bit better technically. However, this is a very sketchy fight on the feet. Both guys have massive power and also have defensive issues as well. Both have been hurt recently too. I just think that if these guys strike, they both will swing very hard and eventually someone will get caught and knocked out. It is a hard outcome to predict and a ton of variance is baked into striking exchanges between these two.
So for that reason alone, Guskov is live. I easily could see him knocking out Krylov. On the other hand, I can just as easily see Krylov knocking out Guskov or just proving he is better than Guskov everywhere. So I will go with the more proven commodity in Krylov here.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a pretty strong fight to target with a -600 ITD line.
Not only that, but the Under 1.5 prop is sitting at -160, so the fight is projected to end early. Both sides are very viable for finishing upside.
Of the two, I prefer Krylov at 8.7k. He is the more experienced fighter and I think he has a tangible advantage on the ground. Guskov has been taken down by three of his four UFC opponents, including Elekana last time out who won the whole first round with a back take.
Kyrlov is a really strong submission grappler and my gut feeling is he can get the fight to the mat and finish Guskov. Priced at 8.7k, with a -130 ITD line, Krylov rates out pretty well for tournaments and I think he’s a really strong upside target for this range.
Of course, there is risk, variance, etc. in a fight like this and if the matchup extends, Krylov may bust. Or he may just get knocked out early. I’d still like moderate exposure to him and would be fine coming in overweight to the field.
Guskov is also a pretty strong target at 7.5k.
I think Guskov will be among the most popular underdogs on the slate which is one concern. But he has won by TKO three times in a row, scored 99, 97 and 107, and is facing an opponent in Krylov who just got KOd quickly. The upside is obvious.
Guskov also rates out well on paper with +175 ITD line, and he can be prioritized. The most likely outcome for Guskov in a win is another early KO and another 100 points. Even if he’s popular, I wouldn’t aim to be too far underweight just given the variance in a matchup like this.
I do prefer Krylov, and will pick Kyrlov to win, so it’s not as if I’m dying to load up and be above the field on Guskov. However, for 7.5k, Guskov is a very strong tournament target and coming in near the field makes a lot of sense.
Great fight to target overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Krylov by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Fight Odds: Mitchell -134, Nurmagomedov +114
Odds to end ITD: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Mitchell 8.3k, Nurmagomedov 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here between Said Nurmagomedov and Bryce Mitchell. I have gone back and forth here and there are reasons to be hesitant picking each guy. This is also a drop in weight class for Mitchell who will be making his bantamweight debut.
Said is a decently well-rounded Russian fighter. However, he strikes more than he wrestles so he is a little different than his Russian contemporaries.
Said lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.25. He defends strikes at 56 percent. Those are good ratios, and I consider Said a pretty skilled striker. He is long for the division and can mix it up a bit.
Said has a very quick jab and also uses kicks well that allow him to control distance from the outside. He also mixes in spinning backfists and other spinning techniques which I am generally not a fan of. However, he doesn’t rely on them too much and generally sticks to the basics. Said also dominates the head strike metrics in his matchups which I like.
Said is skilled. His volume isn’t perfect though and he only landed 42 significant strikes against De Andrade. He doesn’t totally run away with striking rounds. He is generally landing more than his opponents though because he is sound defensively. I also thought he did a good job limiting the calf kick damage against Jonathan Martinez. Said lost the decision in that fight, but I thought the judges butchered that decision and Said should have gotten the nod.
Said only lands 1.01 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he is landing takedowns at 15 percent which means he is shooting well over five takedown attempts per 15 minutes. He actually landed three takedowns in his matchup against Jonathan Martinez and his grappling looked decent. He was able to get the back, threaten with chokes, and stick in a body triangle.
Said defends takedowns at 62 percent which is decent, and I consider his defensive wrestling competent. He also has a really nasty guillotine which he can use to finish opponents or to defend takedowns and get top position. Three of his last four wins have actually come by guillotine.
I really did think Said looked bad in his last matchup against Vinicius Oliveira though. Oliveira is turning out to look like a solid fighter so maybe I am more concerned than I should be with Said. However, Said gassed in about seven minutes. Said dominated round one by outstriking Oliveira quite easily. Then Nurmagomedov gassed horribly. Oliveira does push a crazy pace so perhaps I am being too hard on Said. However, it was a little concerning.
Said will be taking on Bryce Mitchell. Mitchell is almost exclusively a grappler and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to this weight class.
Coming from a wrestling background, Mitchell lands 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also attempts a lot of takedowns. He attempted 13 takedowns in his matchup against Andre Fili in a fight that only took place on the feet for 4-5 minutes. So Mitchell optimizes his path to victory which is something you always want to see in a specialist. He doesn’t mess around too much on the feet.
Mitchell is also quite good in top position. He can pass guard, threaten with submissions, and land occasional ground-and-pound. You want to see that at this level. His takedowns actually mean something, and he doesn’t just stall and lay in guard.
Mitchell isn’t a very strong striker. He only lands 2.44 significant strikes per minute. He does only absorb 1.64 in return though and defends strikes at 60 percent. So although he is not going to exactly easily win fights on the feet with that striking output, he at least limits engagements on the feet. I still just think Mitchell doesn’t land strikes effectively. He has outlanded opponents before but he is always clearly losing the rounds because he doesn’t land damaging strikes and he has a tendency to surrender damaging strikes.
One other concern I have with Mitchell is his submission defense. He was submitted by Topuria and Jean Silva who are both very good fighters. However, Mitchell has a tendency to leave his neck out there.
Overall, I think this is a very interesting fight. I do think Said is much more likely to win ITD and that is why I am going to pick him to win this fight. Said has a seriously good guillotine choke and I could EASILY see Mitchell diving into a submission.
I also think Said is a more damaging striker as well. Mitchell can likely stay competitive on the feet as far as the strike count goes. However, it is pretty clear to me that Said lands more damaging shots. I especially think Said will start off strong too. When these guys are fresh, I think Mitchell will be in danger and likely losing the exchanges pretty clearly.
Mitchell could win this though. Mitchell probably has the better cardio and I could easily see Mitchell landing takedowns, especially in the latter half of this fight, and riding out top position. Mitchell may also be more physical than Said so the drop in weight class is interesting.
I still don’t think Mitchell pushes the type of pace that Oliveira does. Mitchell kind of stays out of range standing and shoots some takedowns here and there. So I don’t necessarily think Said will gas here and I favor Said when these guys are fresh. I also think Mitchell’s wrestling has looked a bit worse lately.
So I am going to go with Said. I think Said is better fresh and has a really good chance at a finish here. I also think Said may not gas right away and could just bank two early rounds and hold on.
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On DraftKings, this is a tougher fight to analyze, especially in the sense that a competitive fight may just push both fighters off the optimal.
From my point of view, we want an early finish for Said, or we want wrestling domination from Bryce. I do think both outcomes are possible.
I do not trust Mitchell anymore. He’s clearly long gone mentally and I do think that affects his fighting. I also have no idea how he will adjust to a drop in weight class. Maybe it’s easy and maybe it’s not easy.
Either way, I don’t think he’s going to have much success here unless he’s on top of Said, holding him down. My gut says not to buy into this outcome, but Said looked awful in his last matchup and was exhausted by the second round. If he gets tired again, Mitchell may have an easy time taking him down and controlling him.
Mitchell is priced at 8.3k and I consider him a fine target. I’m not going to pick him to win, but he at least will attempt takedowns and has a reasonable path to exceeding value in a win. Given his wrestling equity, you could argue he’s a good play and maybe he’s worth being overweight on.
I am going to trust Said a little bit more though. Mitchell won’t push a hard pace and I just worry that he won’t be producing much offense outside of those takedowns. He’s only +310 to win ITD.
Mitchell is a fine secondary target considering the variance and unknowns with some aspects of the matchup, and coming in near the field is fine. I am pretty nervous for him and I won’t consider him a priority myself.
Nurmagomedov is priced at 7.9k and he is my preferred target this week. I think he’s the better striker and I like his choking series. Anytime Mitchell shoots a takedown, Said will probably threaten him with a choke.
If he gets it, he can be optimal. If he doesn’t get it, he probably won’t be, and that’s the tough part. It’s worth noting Said does have the better ITD line of the two at +205, which helps the argument for him being the priority of the two.
The other tough part is that I just hate guillotine chokes. They aren’t hard to see coming or defend. So it really doesn’t matter if Said is “good” at them because all it takes is competent defense and you should be fine. With that said, Mitchell just got guillotined in his last matchup, so clearly the possibility is there.
I even think Said has some knockout upside against Bryce who’s been deaded before, and perhaps the drop in weight could make him more vulnerable.
Otherwise, Said likely won’t produce a ton of offense either. He’s not a high volume striker and wrestling won’t be a guarantee. I do think he needs the finish and so there’s major bust risk in an extended matchup.
In total, I view him as a fine secondary target as well.
It seems unreasonable to target him super heavily as the finish really isn’t guaranteed, but I don’t hate him for upside. I will pick him to win as well for the threat of the finish everywhere, and below the 8k price point, he at least carries some upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Guillotine, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Muslim Salikhov vs. Carlos Leal
Fight Odds: Leal -500, Salikhov +387
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Leal 9.4k, Salikhov 6.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a reasonably fun fight here in the welterweight division between Carlos Leal and Muslim Salikhov.
Leal is a Brazilian fighter who is 22-6 professionally. He is 31 years old. Leal has a ton of experience in solid regional promotions including LFA and PFL. He has some wins over recognizable names like Ray Cooper and David Zawada.
So Leal was battle tested and prepared when he fought Rinat Fakhretdinov in his UFC debut last October. Leal lost a decision in a competitive fight that nearly everyone thought that he won. Interestingly Leal was outlanded 109-107 in significant strikes in that matchup. However, it seemed somewhat clear that Leal landed the better shots throughout. So the decision was definitely questionable. Leal followed that performance up with a first round knockout against Alex Morono.
I mostly consider Leal a generalist with no major holes. I don’t think he is great anywhere. However, he has no glaring weaknesses either. He can strike a bit, he can wrestle a bit. He also has solid defensive grappling.
Leal also has some power on the feet and has 11 knockout wins. I also consider him pretty durable and he has never been knocked out in 28 professional fights.
I generally expect Leal to just expose guys with weaknesses. If someone is a bad striker, Leal can beat them. If someone is a poor grappler, Leal can beat them. If someone has poor cardio or a bad chin then Leal will probably win.
I generally think when Leal starts fighting good fighters in this weight class, his offensive grappling probably isn’t good enough to win. So he may be limited to winning striking fights as he gets steps up in competition. I do think he is a solid striker though as he has some power and can keep up a pretty high pace. He is a fun addition to the UFC welterweight division.
Leal will be taking on Muslim Salikhov. Salikhov is an okay fighter and thrives as a kickboxer. I am a little concerned about his age as he is now 41 years old and he was recently knocked out by Li Jingliang and Randy Brown. I just never like older fighters getting knocked out as it probably has a compounding impact on their durability going forward. So that is a concern I have for Salikhov. He did recently bounce back with a win against Ponzinibbio and a knockout against Song Kenan though.
Salikhov is skilled and explosive as a striker. He lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.90 in return. He defends strikes at a very good 62 percent. He is a technical and fast twitched striker. He uses spinning techniques which I am generally not a fan of. However, he seems reasonably selective with them which is fine.
I think Salikhov is powerful and capable of hurting opponents. He has a knockout or knockdown in five of his last 10 fights. He is definitely dangerous. I also think he is hard to hit and manages distance well. However, I really do worry about his volume. He only lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute which is not a lot. He has landed 40, 62, 63, 57, and 46 significant strikes in his five UFC decisions. I have seen worse volume but that isn’t great. Put it this way, if he doesn’t hurt his opponents, he is going to be in close fights.
Salikhov isn’t that great of a wrestler. He lands 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes which is fine. However, I don’t expect him to really outwrestle any decent grapplers. He defends takedowns at a good 72 percent and has good first layer TDD. However, I do worry about his grappling game if he actually gets grounded. Alex Garcia dominated him on the mat in Salikhov’s debut so it will always be in the back of my mind.
As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Leal at this point in the guys’ careers. Leal is younger and I also just think he is a more well-rounded fighter. He is likely a better wrestler and also has more striking volume. I also think Leal is much more durable so I do think Leal is the rightful favorite for all of those reasons.
However, I still don’t think Leal is great anywhere. I don’t know if he can easily outwrestle Salikhov and he may not even try to honestly. So there is a good chance that these guys strike which could just be competitive. We saw these monster favorites like Holland and Zellhuber lose recently. It was pretty obvious those lines were too wide going in and it could be the same thing here. Sure, I do think Leal is better but -500 seems very wide for what may just turn out to be a competitive striking affair.
So beware as this line is probably too wide. However, I do think Leal is the better fighter and he is much younger as well so I will pick Leal to win.
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On DraftKings, this one is a bit weird because from a technical perspective, I don’t see Leal running through Salikhov.
But Leal has kept up a high pace in his first two fights and he’s coming off a win in which he landed 79 significant strikes IN THE FIRST ROUND. Salikhov has never landed 79 significant strikes in AN ENTIRE FIGHT.
Plus, Salikhov is getting up there in age and with a couple of recent knockout losses, I can definitely see the potential for Leal to just swarm him and get the finish. I guess I will pick that outcome too as it seems like Leal wants to pressure.
Salikhov is dangerous though and wants to slow the fight down. If he gets this way, Leal could win and land 80 strikes and bust completely. So it really is a risky matchup in that sense.
The pacing and potential for an early finish definitely makes Leal viable, despite a big price tag of 9.4k. He definitely does not need to be a priority, but he’s also -500 to win with a -185 ITD line, so I can understand wanting to roster him when possible.
Ultimately I have mixed feelings. This does not feel safe to me despite the price tag. But if Leal is going to turn this into a brawl, he’s a good upside target for sure.
Salikhov is viable at 6.8k but he probably needs a knockout.
My real issue is that Leal has never been knocked out, so it’s a bit tougher to recommend Salikhov. I do think he could hurt Leal. If Leal is just fighting aggressively, Salikhov is super technical and super dangerous. I don’t completely hate the idea of punting with Salikhov because he’s a very good striker.
His style is just predicated on low volume and flashy shots, so unless he lands big, he’s probably not going to win. At his age and at this betting line, he’s probably not worth a real investment, but I don’t hate him as a sprinkle in relation to the low quality of the rest of this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Leal by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Davey Grant vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
Fight Odds: Blackshear -342, Grant +278
Odds to end ITD: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Blackshear 9k, Grant 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Da’Mon Blackshear’s now in his 4th year on the UFC roster and has been a little hit or miss at points, granted his losses have come against quality competition. He’ll be getting another quicker turnaround and his 3rd fight this year after besting Alateng over 15 minutes back in April – he’s 5-3-1 in the UFC and 17-7-1 as a pro. Davey Grant’s one of the longer tenured bantamweights on the roster who’s entering his 13th year with promotion. He’s getting up there at the not so ripe age of 39 but has shown he can still go, having won three of his last four fights – he’s 7-6 in the UFC and 14-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Blackshear’s striking background but we’ve seen a healthy amount of him at distance over the years.
He’s not a particularly high-volume striker in the aggregate but is someone whose pacing will adapt with the person across from him, so he can be.
I would like him to throw some more straight punches but does have a good hook and range kicking game – he’ll also throw explosive knees and is capable in the clinch – we’ve seen him be proactive with kicks as well in certain fights. Despite only having two career KOs, he has shown some power capabilities in dropping both Vogel and Anderson.
In regards to his pacing though, I thought Blackshear took a step in the right direction in his last fight with Alateng. While Alateng isn’t very good, he’s traditionally a lower volume guy and we saw Blackshear go out there and land 125 significant strikes on 273 attempts – 200 of those attempts were to the head as well when he’s been more kick-based in the past so it was really nice to see him show off more of his boxing and be confident in letting it go.
Defensively, I’m not in love with him though as he can leave his head on the center line especially when he’s flurrying or coming forward in general.
But regionally, he’d been durable and was getting the better of the striking exchanges – he hasn’t fought many good strikers though.
However, we did see him struggle with Zalal in his debut where he got outlanded 42 to 27 at distance, dropped with a body kick late in the 3rd round and nearly finished – he also slowed down quite a bit in that fight but it was super short notice. He struck competitively with Basharat and Bautista but was just a tad behind. He also got blasted in 18 seconds with a straight left from Montel Jackson and was getting outlanded by Gibson when the fight was upright.
Overall, Blackshear falls into the capable striker category for me where he’s well-rounded enough there to not get blown out of the water per say, but his macro striking style also doesn’t give him a large ceiling as well.
Grant comes from a kickboxing background and has worked in a more hybrid approach over the years.
In certain fights, he will play the back foot but play the aggressor in others where his game is primarily centered around hooks and kicks, mainly to the legs.
He’s shown to keep a higher work rate over the years as well, landing 5.3 SLpM at 44% and 6.5 DLpM at 42%. He reps the nickname of “dangerous” which he has been to a certain extent, scoring KOs in three of his seven UFC wins.
We’ve also seen Grant strike competitively if not outland some quality strikers over the years like Vera, Martinez, Yanez and Marcos.
Defensively, he sits right at the divisional averages in both capacities eating 3.9 SApM at 56% and 4.7 DApM at 58%.
He’s a guy that’s definitely displayed his toughness over the years having never been KOd, but he has also been dropped officially three times and hurt in other outings as well.
Grant’s been particularly susceptible to the jab and effective pressure when opponents get on the inside – he’s also had issues with his nose and carries a decent amount of scar tissue, so he’s gotten busted up in multiple fights which hasn’t been the best optically. His cardio has generally been a positive, but we have seen him slow down in certain extended fights as well.
Overall, Grant’s a gamer on the feet with an awkward style who isn’t an easy striking night at the office for many opponents despite approaching 40.
How it plays out: Despite touting the solid striking performance of Blackshear in his last outing, it was against a plodding Chinese wrestler. Grant’s a categorical much more difficult matchup for Blackshear on the feet. If you look at some of the more outside or lanky based opponents that Blackshear has faced, he’s cleanly beaten none of them – he’s either struck competitively or lost the overall exchanges. As alluded to above, Grant’s shown he can go toe to toe with some pretty good strikers – guys that are more established on the feet than Blackshear. There’s obvious macro downside with Grant being 39 and hurt in his wider past, but it’s not as if Blackshear is some murderous power puncher. So, I kind of default to the conventional standard of that the striking is competitive or Grant is just winning the exchanges. If Blackshear does comprehensively outstrike Grant, that would be more on Grant declined/washed components – not out of the realm but lacking evidence.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Blackshear is a BJJ black belt where the majority of his success has come on the floor throughout his career,
He’s not the guy to dive on legs (1.56 TDs/15 minutes at 36%) but has decent wrestling and has proven to be a potent grappler with 11 of his 17 pro wins coming via submission. He’s also one of the few UFC fighters to pull off a twister which came a few fights back over Jose Johnson.
His control is best when he can really solidify positions after passing, but does have some submission over position elements at the same time where guys have been able to scramble with him.
For as much success as he’s had on the floor, the floor has also been his downfall. We saw him get ragdolled by both Sabatello and Sabatini back regionally – however, not bad losses at all.
Sabatello comes out of Purdue and just fought for a Bellator world title not long ago – Sabatini’s also a former collegiate wrestler, black belt and current UFC fighter.
In the UFC, there’s been some back and forth between the Zalal, Basharat and Bautista fights with lots of trading in positions – he edged early against Zalal in the back half of early rounds, Basharat got the better of him and slightly got the better of Bautista.
Most recently, he gave up some ground time to Gibson but was a step ahead in the BJJ department where he was able to sweep Gibson and eventually finish off with a kimura – he still gave up some bottom time there though.
Overall, Blackshear’s good on the ground with a dangerous submission game but some of the quicker/scramblier guys have given him more problems in terms of mounting consistent, sustained success.
In addition to Grant’s kickboxing background, he also began grappling in his teens and now reps a black belt in jiu-jitsu.
Although, his wrestling success in the UFC has been sparing outside of a couple fights earlier on in his run against Popov (fraudulent Russian), a more youthful Marlon Vera in their first contest back in 2016 and a bit in round two of their rematch in 2021.
Statistically, he’s landing 1.1 TDs per 15 minutes at 40% but only controlling his opponents for 14% of his overall fight time. So, while Grant is capable, it’s not something you can trust him to push with much regularity.
He did snag up a nice, inverted triangle against Assuncao a few fights back near the bell but that was a tad memey to me – he was 17 seconds away from dropping that fight.
Defensively, he’s had some struggles over the years having been submitted in four of his seven losses, albeit the last one came back in 2018.
In a more recent sample though, Vera found a lot of success on him in the back half of their rematch landing a lot of GNP, Assuncao wrestling through the first couple rounds aided in Grant dropping those, and a late 3rd round TD from Marcos may have swung the fight despite Grant working up.
Nonetheless, he avoided finishes in the first two fights referenced.
Overall, the macro still suggests that the ground is more of a weakness than a strength for Grant when facing more capable grapplers, as he’s only stuffing at 61% but he’s not inept either, and you can generally anticipate primary minutes on the feet in his fights.
How it plays out: This is where the fight favors Blackshear. Blackshear’s probably the most potent submission grappler that Grant has fought in his UFC run despite facing a handful of black belts in there. While I feel Grant’s urgency, TDD and submission defense has evolved from the earlier portions of his career, he still makes mistakes to where I feel Blackshear can take him down and put him in some bad spots. So, some rubber will have to meet the road.
Weird ass fight for me because Blackshear’s a guy that’s gotten a ton of praise over the years from the hardcore community but I’ve always had some honest hesitations with him because there’s still objective problems with his game. On the flip side, Grant’s a guy I’ve downplayed over the years as well but has significantly outperformed my expectations and is a better fighter than I’ve originally given him credit for. I’m going to pick Blackshear simply for the fact he’s nine years younger, is probably more dangerous in this individual matchup and has the perceived game to dictate where this fight takes place. With that being said though, if Grant is able to stuff some TDs, work up from TDs, avoid dominant positions and a submission where we get a primary striking fight, Grant’s super live to win that.
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On DraftKings, Blackshear is semi-viable though hard for me to trust.
I was really high on him in his last matchup over Alatengheili, and I thought he won that fight fairly comfortably, but he still underperformed my expectations. Part of the reason why is that he didn’t choose to wrestle, despite facing a wrestler, Blackshear was absolutely levels ahead of Alatengheili had he actually gotten the fight to the mat.
Now looking at the macro view, Blackshear has only attempted one takedown in his last 30 minutes of cage time – huge red flag for me. He’s still dangerous and club-and-subs are very much in play, but I just want the guy to wrestle to maximize his win equity – dumb of me to ask I suppose given he’s a high-level grappler (sarcasm).
If this fight plays out on the feet, Blackshear can win it, but I doubt he does so comfortably and Grant is live for the upset. Blackshear has way more grappling upside too. So his DraftKings merit is likely determined by how he fights.
At 9k, I still think he’s viable. He’s just risky.
If he strikes, your chances of getting an optimal score aren’t as high, but he could still hurt Grant or club-and-sub him. If he grapples, then a finish is more in play and I’d probably like him at that point. He is +125 to win ITD overall which is decent.
I would ultimately consider Blackshear a decent secondary target this week. I do like some options priced ahead of him, and the options priced right below him are obvious for finishing upside. But those fighters don’t have guarantees. Blackshear may be a little bit underowned due to the strength of this range too.
I don’t think he’ll end up as a priority for me, but he’s a nice price play who could still get there as the pace of the matchup should be decent, and he’ll carry some grappling/finishing equity too. If he busts, so be it. I still think he’s worth including in your portfolio and I may aim to be near the field.
Grant at 7.2k is live but I probably won’t be heavy on him.
The reality is, Blackshear wasn’t so far away from losing to Alatengheili, and Grant will throw at a much higher pace. So if this is a pure striking fight, I would expect it to be competitive. Grant doesn’t have massive upside in that case, but it’s a winnable fight.
If Blackshear is wrestling, then Grant becomes much less interesting and I don’t think Grant has much offensive grappling upside himself.
I’m hesitant to really invest in a 39 year old who needs a striking based decision, so in that sense, I’m not a huge fan of Grant this week. However, 100 strikes and a decision are on the table here, depending on how Blackshear fights, so it’s not the worst play in the world either.
Underdogs are kind of meh this week. Guskov and de Ridder should be chalk. I’d put Grant in with the tier of fighters below him, so he’s expensive in that sense, but he probably has the best floor of the group still. He’s a viable low-end target but with a +600 ITD line, I will really only consider him as a pricing play and not an outright priority.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blackshear by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci
Fight Odds: Ribas -185, Ricci +157
Odds to end ITD: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Ribas 8.6k, Ricci 7.6k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a WMMA battle between two UFC veterans here in Amanda Ribas and Tabatha Ricci.
I have historically liked Ribas as a fighter. She is a pretty decent striker with some speed and skills. She lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 in return.
She also defends strikes at a solid 60 percent. She competed well on the feet with Kaitlyn Chookagian and also outlanded Viviane Araujo 93-45 at range. She has a good jab and some strike variety in general. Ribas also has strong cardio and can fight with a decent pace for a full 15 minutes.
Ribas is also a capable grappler. She lands 2.06 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at a solid 83 percent. She is capable of landing takedowns and riding top position. She is also a BJJ black belt and has only been submitted once in her career in her last matchup against Mackenzie Dern. I don’t like that she goes for head and arm throws at times though. I have seen her put in bad positions because of it.
I generally like Ribas as she can strike, she can grapple, and she has cardio.
Ribas has some issues though. The main issue with her is her durability. She was knocked out on the regionals once. She was also knocked out by Marina Rodriguez and Maycee Barber. Rodriguez and Barber are seriously dangerous so I forgive those losses to a degree, but even Virna Jandiroba knocked Ribas down. I just worry about her chin a little bit in general.
Furthermore, Ribas can get stuck on her back a little bit. We have seen it a few times in her career. It also happened against Mackenzie Dern in her last matchup. So although Ribas is a solid fighter, she does have some holes and can be exploited.
Ribas will be taking on Tabatha Ricci. A BJJ black belt, Ricci is mostly a grappler who looks to land takedowns and hold top position on her opponents.
Ricci is not a very good striker. In her UFC debut, she got absolutely annihilated by Manon Fiorot. I don’t fault her much there as Fiorot is honestly one of the best strikers at flyweight. She has generally been outlanded since that fight too though, and lands 4.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.29 in return.
Ricci can sort of strike and go through the motions, but overall I don’t have much faith in her striking and she doesn’t have much depth on the feet. She got outlanded 70-48 at distance against Tecia Pennington and was gifted a split decision that she didn’t deserve. She also was outlanded by Xiaonan Yan 78-15 in significant strikes in her last matchup and just looked awful in that fight. She also only attempted three takedowns which showed poor fight IQ as grappling Yan was her only chance to win.
Ricci’s bread and butter is her grappling. I consider her a decent wrestler. She lands 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes, but I do think she has generally outgrappled girls with weak TDD. Robertson, Penne, Viana, and Oliveira have a combined 45 percent takedown rate. That is just awful. Ricci only landed one takedown in six rounds against Godinez and Pennington. So she isn’t easily landing takedowns as she gets steps up in competition. She did outwrestle Angela Hill though which was her best performance to date.
I still consider Ricci a pretty decent wrestler but I surely think she has padded her metrics against weak defensive wrestlers. I do think Ricci showed solid defensive wrestling against Robertson though, and she defends takedowns at 81 percent.
Overall, Ricci isn’t that good. Her striking is pretty bad and her takedowns are okay. She can win clean fights when she can easily outwrestle opponents, but that is really it. Anyone with solid TDD is going to beat her.
As far as this matchup goes, I want to make it very clear that Ribas is a better fighter than Ricci. I think Ribas has more well-rounded skills and I think Ribas could beat more women in this weight class than Ricci could.
Ribas is a better striker and has decent TDD so there is a really good chance that Ribas just minimizes the grappling of Ricci and wins a striking based decision. That is what I am going to pick to happen.
However, Ricci is a weasel and she wins close fights all the time. I do think Ricci can land a couple of takedowns against Ribas. Ribas also does struggle getting up from bottom position. So honestly, would it surprise me if Ricci landed a takedown or two and stole a round or two and won a very close decision? It really wouldn’t. Ribas’ bottom game is clearly not perfect and Ricci could exploit it here.
I still have to pick Ribas to win though. Ribas is more well-rounded and she still is a decent defensive wrestler. Ricci is also sometimes too complacent to strike as she was with Yan, so Ricci may not take advantage of her path to victory. I think the line overall is fair as I slightly lean Ribas to win. Ricci is an absolute Weasel though and has been a close decision merchant her entire UFC career.
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On DraftKings, I don’t have a ton of interest in this matchup.
I probably won’t play any Ribas at 8.6k, as I just don’t see a real path to a ceiling for her.
I like Ribas the most when she has a big grappling advantage but that shouldn’t be the case here. Can she land a couple of takedowns? Maybe, but I don’t think Ribas would be able to submit Ricci and she may just choose to strike instead of wrestle anyways.
It seems very clear that Ribas’ most likely path to victory is a decision, which is backed up by her poor +400 ITD line. And I just don’t see how a decision easily exceeds value at 8.6k.
Personally, I wouldn’t mind fading Ribas if you need one spot to limit your player pool. She needs grappling domination or a knockout which just do not feel like reasonable outcomes to me.
Ricci is the more viable target at 7.6k.
She can occasionally land volume and Ribas randomly gets hurt sometimes. Ricci may also be able to land a couple of takedowns. I wouldn’t be shocked by a generally competitive matchup, so a close decision is in play.
At 7.6k, if there’s enough wrestling involved, Ricci can exceed value. I’m not necessarily projecting that, which is the problem, because Ribas defends pretty well. If Ricci can only land 1-2 takedowns, you probably don’t want too much exposure to her.
Plus, her ITD line is very poor at +700 and so we should generally expect the decision.
Ricci does seem like a fine floor play, though going cheaper still makes sense. I think she’s a viable secondary target in general, considering that floor, and that she can shoot takedowns.
My expectation is a pretty close fight with a limited ceiling on either side, so I wouldn’t aim to be too high on Ricci regardless.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ribas by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ibo Aslan vs. Billy Elekana
Fight Odds: Aslan -270, Elekana +224
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Aslan 8.9k, Elekana 7.3k
Weight Class: 205
Both Ibo Aslan and Billy Elekana will be looking for a get-right spot here on Saturday as they face one another coming off recent submission losses.
Aslan is 14-2 professionally and all 14 of his wins have come by knockout, with the vast majority of them coming in the first round.
This guy has marched through a handful of weak opponents, including his opponent on DWCS, who he knocked out in two minutes.
The guy is clearly powerful, and that can certainly translate to damage against better competition. He throws nice leg kicks, which is also a technique that I love. But we don’t have major samples here in extended fights as well and typically, fighters who dominate early tend not to do so well once the fight progresses.
The UFC actually decided to book Aslan against Turkalj, who gave Aslan his one and only regional loss in 2020, where Turkalj submitted him with a RNC in the second round.
You can watch that fight, and it’s not super pretty. Aslan walks Turkalj down, and lands a couple of nice leg kicks. Turkalj can’t connect with much offensively. Aslan ends up on top of Turkalj early but can’t produce offense from top position and Turkalj gets back up on his feet.
In round two, Turkalj lands a takedown of his own, and moves immediately into mount. From there, Aslan gives up his back to stand up and gets choked out.
It’s honestly an awful fight, and especially the ending sequence. Put everything else aside. Watching Turkalj immediately advance into mount from the takedown is a glaring red flag and tells me that at that time, Aslan really did not know how to grapple at all. It’s an elementary mistake to make.
Since that fight, Aslan has competed seven times, and prior to his UFC debut he never made it to the halfway point of the first round. There’s been no worthwhile ground exchanges since until his most recent fight against Cutelaba, who was able to take Aslan down after a few brawling exchanges and tap him out with an arm-triangle choke.
In his debut against Turkalj, Aslan actually defended eight takedown attempts, which is a positive in the sense that he literally did not fall over. But none of the attempts make me feel extremely confident in his wrestling defense against better competition, and my primary concern is still what happens once the fight actually hits the mat.
On the feet, Aslan still showed his power but he was cracked early and arguably lost the first round. I did like that he was forced to fight longer, and won round two convincingly before putting Turkalj away in round three.
In theory, it gives me more hope that Aslan isn’t fully dependent on early damage though that’s still where I think the bulk of his success will come.
Next he’ll take on Billy Elekana who is coming off a second round submission loss to Bogdan Guskov in his UFC debut.
The toughest part here will be analyzing that performance because it was on short notice, and Elekana still did win the first round with a nice takedown and back take. But he was clearly very tired by round two, and basically just allowed Guskov to pressure him and throw heavy strikes until Elekana stuck his neck into a guillotine. Now he will get a full camp, and I’m hopeful we’ll see that cardio look better as he showed on the regional scene.
Elekana is now 7-2 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned three wins by knockout, one by submission and three by decision. He’s fought in LFA a few times and PFL as well, though not against great competition.
On the feet, Elekana is a fairly low-volume striker but he’s reasonably technical. He’ll throw a lot of single strikes and probably won’t eclipse the 20 strike mark in a round, which is my primary concern. That, and the fact that he’s not a major power threat.
In his single strike, low-volume style, Elekana can pump a jab. He can kick a bit. It just seems impossible for him to separate on volume and I doubt he can score many knockouts either. He had actually never been finished prior to joining the UFC, and that toughness seemed like a real positive attribute for him.
That’s what makes his UFC debut tough to swallow because he kind of just gave up once his cardio failed. Typically, he can fight for 15 minutes just fine. I don’t want to give him a clear pass but I don’t think lower level UFC fighters will easily knock him out. I have seen him rocked on the regional scene before though.
Elekana can also grapple, and I believe he’s a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. His wrestling is mediocre, but he will occasionally shoot takedowns and I thought his takedown in his UFC debut was solid.
Clearly he has some back take ability as well, but I just don’t consider him a real submission threat. He’s also not likely to shoot takedowns in volume, which again will make it tough for him to separate.
Defensively he seems fine, but he’s going to run into issues against pressure fighters who won’t let him dictate a slow pace. I don’t think he can keep up with a high volume of offense in general so he’s likely to get outpaced and fall behind on damage at this level.
As far as this matchup, I do think Elekana is live. Particularly if you give him a pass in his UFC debut. On paper, he has the better cardio here and probably the better wrestling/grappling as well.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Aslan look to throw big shots, swing and miss a few times and start to get tired. Down the stretch, Elekana could be the better distance fighter and the more technical striker/wrestler, and I think there’s some upset viability in that kind of game.
I’m just not sure I trust him to really bring the offense to Aslan. Aslan hits way harder and should have the better optics here. He could hurt Elekana and knock him out. I suppose Elekana could have submission upside.
This one is tough because I don’t feel like picking Aslan to win by RD 1 KO. If that doesn’t happen, I’m not sure who the rest of the fight looks. I also don’t trust Elekana’s offense enough to really pick him for the upset. So I guess I’ll take Aslan to win a decision.. in where he has the better optics and doesn’t have to fight a super hard pace, so his cardio holds up over three rounds.
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On DraftKings, Aslan is going to rate out fairly well for early knockout upside.
He’s priced at 8.9k and seems like a pretty reasonable tournament target. He is lined -200 to win ITD.
I honestly am not too excited by him though. My gut feeling is that Elekana can survive a round or more, in which case, there is real bust risk for Aslan. At the same time, I’m just not too confident in how the fight will look.
So I don’t mind some shares of Aslan. That is a great ITD line for the price and Elekana just got finished in his debut. I think I would rather come in underweight though if Aslan projects to be chalky, as this is still a major boom/bust spot.
Elekana at 7.3k is a potentially sneaky underdog.
The only reason I say that is because Aslan is still quite weak on the mat. If Elekana’s cardio holds up, maybe he can land 2-3 takedowns and win a decision, or potentially find a submission. He’s only +375 to win ITD but that’s not a terrible line for the price tag, and I’d bet he’ll be super low owned and carry leverage against Aslan as well.
I really do not trust the offensive output for Elekana so I won’t aim to be high on this spot. He probably just loses. But Aslan is a pretty fragile fighter and with mild grappling equity, I don’t hate some shares of Elekana for a cheap price in larger fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aslan by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Mohammad Yahya vs. Steven Nguyen
Fight Odds: Nguyen -327, Yahya +267
Odds to end ITD: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Nguyen 9.2k, Yahya 7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Mohammad Yahya bypassed the Contender Series as the former UAE Warriors lightweight champion. He’ll be dropping down to 145 lbs and looking to rebound after a rocky 0-2 UFC start – he’s 12-5 as a pro. Steven Nguyen’s one of the few fighters that can say they are 3-time alumni of the Contender Series, but the 3rd time was the charm I suppose, as he won his last two but earned a contract after his 3rd opportunity. He’ll be looking to rebound from a less than stellar UFC debut in March of last year – he’s 9-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Yahya comes from a kickboxing background and works in a more tepid style.
I watched a decent amount of tape on him and he’s largely fought the same way in all of his fights. He’ll fight from the mid/outside range, be relatively low volume, and not throw in extended combinations very often.
In his defense, he has been accurate and more efficient than most of his opponents, resulting in the career successes he’s had to date. He’s just shown an ability to lull opponents into these slower affairs.
He’s also shown some power capabilities with seven of his 12 pro wins coming via strikes, and he did hurt his last regional opponent despite the fight going a full 25 minutes – he also got dropped in that fight and has been hurt in others as well.
But his debut against Peek was an alarming performance as he got beat in a slow paced affair with Peek which isn’t traditionally the norm for Peek – Peek is an atrocious fighter technically and he got out landed 61 to 43 with Peek landing at a 62% clip.
Yahya has struggled with pressure in other fights and doesn’t check leg kicks even dating back to his regional days – that was highlighted in his last fight with Fernandes who destroyed his legs and eventually found the kill shot late in round one.
Overall, Yahya’s kind of like the male version of Bruna Brasil. His striking style translates well to the regional scene but not as much in the UFC as his ceiling in decisions is going to be low as a low output guy who needs to be in the driver’s seat to realize more success.
Nguyen’s on the bigger end of 145 lbs and works in a mid-range/lip of the pocket boxing based style – he’ll supplement a leg or front kick here and there but gets his primary work done with his hands.
His style is kind of unique in the sense that he operates in higher volume but sparring like mode at the same time. That’s really what my critiques were in his first couple cracks on DWCS.
I thought the Cruz fight was relatively competitive, but he was just a slight step behind in being able to string together extended combinations with the length and kicks of Cruz – he then got torched with a flying knee at the end of the fight. He followed that up with a vicious KO at LFA 100.
The Riayang fight was more of the same as the first DWCS fight although Nguyen was in far more control of the exchanges and was fighting a much smaller opponent.
Despite clearly winning the fight and landing 126 significant strikes, it sounds ironic, but he didn’t really step on the gas enough. If he really wanted to, there were multiple points in that fight where he could have unloaded and finished but he chose to just pick him apart – Dana White wasn’t too impressed to say the least which gives some credence to the take I just gave and as to why he didn’t earn a contract there.
But they brought him back a third time where you could tell that there was a bit more pep in his step and urgency to put on a showing against Cunningham – he ultimately ended up scoring a big KO in the 2nd round.
So, I like the general boxing mechanics of Nguyen and he’s clearly shown bigger power components but I want to see him continue to bring that fire and urgency.
He’s obviously coming off getting 2x’d at distance in his debut by Errens so that’s the issue with him – he’s not good defensively (despite me thinking he’s pretty tough). He’s a guy who NEEDS to step on the gas in his fights or he’s simply going to get outworked by opponents.
Overall, Nguyen’s a pretty frustrating fighter to me because I think he’s actually better than what he’s shown to be honest. At 32, I can’t anticipate the guy to make large strides in terms of his defense, he just needs to supplement with consistent volume and he can absolutely win striking fights at the UFC level – lower tiers more specifically.
How it plays out: Luckily for Nguyen, he’s facing a guy in Yahya who doesn’t throw a high volume of strikes. So, in the worst case scenario, I think it’s competitive. But if Nguyen pulls his head out and steps on like he did against Cunningham, he’s going to beat Yahya up. I just feel he’s the far superior boxer technically also with better hand speed and pressure optics. I also feel that Nguyen’s the tougher guy.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Yahya started earlier on in BJJ, but I wasn’t able to find any belt ranking associated with him.
But being a primary striker, we still don’t have a ton to go off on the ground in recent years for him.
In his 5-round fight with Jaghdal, he did mix wrestling more into his gameplan where he landed 3-4 TDs and was able to rack up some decent minutes off double legs against the fence. But his entries looked slow to me and he didn’t do much on top position until later in the 5th round when his opponent was tired and he was able to easily pass into an arm triangle.
It was his last regional fight where he got taken down a handful of times and also got his back taken a handful of times.
In his defense, he was able to fight off chokes and/or reverse positions eventually, but he still got controlled a bit and got stuck in a deeper guillotine – it was the rounds that he was being grappled that he lost, making that a closer contested fight on rounds.
Peek also went 4/7 on TDs against him, racking up five minutes of control – Peek also mounted him on two different occasions – not a good look.
It’s also important to note that two of Yahya’s four pro losses come via submission as well but they were four years ago.
Overall, Yahya doesn’t appear to be incapable on the floor offensively, but I figure that the ground will be more of a weakness than a strength for him at the UFC level.
There’s honestly almost nothing to say here with Nguyen.
He had three submission wins earlier in his pro career, but I couldn’t view any of them and I’m unsure of his grappling credentials.
Additionally, I haven’t really seen him shoot any TDs regionally – he landed one on his lone attempt last time out against Errens but Errens worked up.
He stuffed four TDs against Cruz and all three from Cunningham but both aren’t very good wrestlers.
He was taken down twice by Riayang but was able to reverse position on one and work out of a back take quickly on the other.
Ironically, I believe Nguyen actually comes from a wrestling background in his youth but he’s just one of these guys that uses it for defensive purposes – kind of similar to Zaleski Dos Santos with his jiu-jitsu.
But with our limited footage offensively or defensively, it’s hard to give any meaningful analysis of Nguyen’s ground game – the thing I do feel decent about saying though is that he’s a competent defensive wrestler.
How it plays out: The theoretical ground upside lies with Yahya technically just because he’s shown some more pursuit where Nguyen hasn’t shown much interest in wrestling. At the same time, I don’t really see Yahya taking Nguyen down and even if he does, Nguyen gets up quickly in my eyes. On the flip side of the coin, despite Nguyen showing little willingness to wrestle but knowing he has a wrestling background, after watching Yahya get taken down multiple times by Trevor Peek, I wouldn’t be shocked if Nguyen realized some success if he actually pursued to be honest.
This fight’s a shit show on many levels. I feel pretty confident in saying that Yahya is not a UFC level fighter and the only reason he got a contract was because of the UFC’s affiliation with UAE Warriors and they had a card in Abu Dhabi back in 2023 as a “hometown” guy. Conversely, someone being on Contender Series 3x in Nguyen isn’t a good macro sign especially after a poor UFC debut showing. With all that being said, despite some of Nguyen’s drawbacks, I like him a decent amount in the matchup because I simply think he’s the better fighter and the guy I project to produce more offense in the fight, have better optics, be tougher and nullify Yahya’s grappling attacks. If we’re getting a “good” Steven Nguyen, he probably finishes 2/3 with attrition if not just outworks Yahya.
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On DraftKings, I’m willing to take chances on Nguyen this week.
He is priced up to 9.2k, and my hope is that coming off an ugly debut loss, the public avoids him. He won’t even rate out that spectacularly well with an -140 ITD line, in a fight that’s projected to to extend a bit.
Yahya is so bad though, and he doesn’t look UFC level to me at all. The optics of his exchanges are so poor, and I think he’ll continue to get beaten up in losses. A finish wouldn’t surprise me.
So for a semi-aggressive striker like Nguyen, the knockout upside is there in my opinion. If he fights for 15 minutes and wins/loses, so be it, he probably won’t be optimal at 9.2k. If he can score a RD1/2 finish, then he will have a chance to contend for the optimal.
I suppose there’s no reason to be confident here, but I like the matchup for Nguyen and I like his finishing chances specifically. I’d for sure rather play him than a guy like Petr Yan straight up, though others in this range interest me as well.
Spreading out your exposure makes sense. This isn’t a lock. I do like Nguyen personally and I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to him if the field is scared off.
Yahya at 7k is a really gross target but maybe he can win?
He’ll probably get the striking fight he wants, but likely not the slow paced fight he wants. There’s plenty of variance in striking exchanges though and Nguyen isn’t great, and can be hit and hurt.
Maybe Yahya can win by KO. He won’t project well with an +600 ITD line but he likely won’t be owned much at all either.
I just think he’s looked so bad that I’m not really willing to take many chances here. Is he in play officially? Sure, he can be viewed as a low end mix in with some finishing equity but I’d be pretty surprised if he came through and I wouldn’t use him as anything other than a sprinkle.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nguyen by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Martin Buday vs. Marcus Buchecha
Fight Odds: Buchecha -308, Buday +253
Odds to end ITD: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Buchecha 9.1k, Buday 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
The UFC will welcome one of the greatest sport BJJ players of our time, as Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida will make his promotional debut this weekend against Martin Buday.
I actually feel nostalgic writing up the debut of Buchecha. He was one of the stars of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu as I was first getting involved with the sport myself. He’s a 2x ADCC champion, a 7x IBJJF champion in the Gi and a 2x champion in No Gi.
Buchecha is a physical force on the mat. A good wrestler. An elite passer. An elite submission artist. He’s simply one of the best to ever do it. He has a 5-1 record over Rodolfo Vieira for reference, who I’d put in the same category as Buchecha, though Buchecha fights at a heavier weight class.
Buchecha made his pro MMA debut in 2021 in ONE FC, and he’s earned a 5-1 record in the organization, winning four times by submission and once by TKO.
As you might imagine, at HW, Buchecha is just aggressively shooting takedowns and choking guys out. He does hold one heel hook in that span, as well as a north/south choke, so he can do more than your standard RNC, but the point is that he is going to be a threat on top against anyone in the sport.
His lone loss is the real concern, and again as you might imagine, there are weaknesses that come with his style. At age 35, Buchecha likely isn’t going to be improving too much either, and I’m largely expecting him to be a dependent grappler.
That loss, for what it’s worth, came against Oumar Kane (“Reug Reug”) in 2023, who won a decision. Kane is the champion at HW in ONE FC, so it’s not a bad loss contextually.
Kane is a physical beast and was able to just roll through Buchecha. He outwrestled him, and was the far more dangerous striker. Buchecha actually did land a few takedowns over the course of the fight but couldn’t find the submission, and really couldn’t compete with the physicality and pressure of Kane.
I did like that Buchecha at least survived three rounds, but I would still consider his cardio to be suspect. He can throw with some power but we shouldn’t bet on any striking volume.
Essentially, Buchecha needs to be wrestling and earning control, or he’s likely going to lose. He can likely smash the mid tiers of the division at least though, as his pure BJJ is going to be many levels ahead of the average HW. But there’s still some general concerns here in that if he gets a bit tired and can’t land those takedowns, his game will probably fall apart.
We will see him square off with Martin Buday for his UFC debut, who is now 15-2 professionally and 6-1 in the UFC, only losing to Shamil Gaziev.
Buday has kind of underperformed my expectations despite winning his fights. He fought Chris Barnett to a decision, and then likely should have lost the fight against Brzeski, which are two good examples.
Then he has wins over Jake Collier and Josh Parisain, who both suck. And his split decision win against Arlovski could have easily gone the other direction as he was outlanded 74-54 in total. Most recently, he outstruck Uran Satybaldiev on short notice.
His only loss came in 2023 against Shamil Gaziev who just broke him with pressure, and that wasn’t a great look.
Looking back, I just feel Buday has fought a horrible level of competition, and he hasn’t even done that well. He only has one win ITD which was a submission over Parisian, and my guess is he loses again soon. Probably here.
Buday is mostly a clinch fighter which is pretty odd these days. He actually came from a wrestling background but he’s been highly inefficient in wrestling at the UFC level, and he barely tries.
Currently, Buday only lands 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and he has only taken down one opponent. But he will grind on people in the clinch, hold them against the cage and dirty box. He’s mildly effective at that.
Buday just doesn’t do a whole lot. He’s landing 4.67 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.00 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate. He’s topped 70 strikes once. He rarely wrestles.
If he did get more top time, I think that would give him additional paths to victory. He’s pretty decent on top and even has some submission upside, but he just doesn’t pursue that path often. He’s also not a great distance striker.
He seems fairly durable and tough, but again his loss to Gaziev was bad where he was completely exhausted by round two. Buday is skilled enough to hang around with average competition but it seems like he has no ceiling given his style.
The most difficult part of analyzing this matchup is that there aren’t really any comps to Buchecha for Buday, and there is a very small sample of Buday actually defending takedowns as well.
Officially, Buday is 4/4 defending takedowns in the UFC for a 100 percent rate, but he hasn’t had to defend against anyone decent, so it’s tough to put real stock into that.
I also believe he’s a BJJ brown belt and theoretically decent as a sub grappler for HW standards. It’s just difficult to care much about his resume here as Buchecha is a 4th degree black belt.
It won’t come as a surprise but I feel pretty hopeful for Buchecha in this matchup. He has shown to be somewhat urgent early in fights to land his takedowns, and he’s a decent wrestler with a double leg. I would expect him to be able to land 2-3 takedowns comfortably before I start getting worried about his cardio.
With those couple of takedowns, it’s very likely he can find a submission. He’s the type who doesn’t even need his arm under your neck to finish a RNC. He will just crush your jaw and choke you out with the arm over your face. He is that skilled. Plus, there’s some untapped leg lock potential as we’ve seen recently which I doubt Buday can handle.
So this fight will likely be determined by Buday’s wrestling defense and cardio. If he can defend takedowns, and if he can scramble free, that’s going to wear Buchecha down.
Though I don’t consider Buday a devastating power striker or a pressure fighter, I’d still favor him on the feet over Buchecha. And there will always be some knockout upside against binary grapplers like Buchecha.
With that said, if he does get tired, I would expect Buchecha to start pulling guard and working subs/sweeps, so he does still have outs if he can’t land takedowns. In some sense, we circle back around to cardio.
Buchecha is 35 years old and I don’t fully trust him. I don’t think he’ll be a world champion. But I do think he’s capable of landing a takedown or two and I highly doubt once he secures top control, Buday is going to escape with ease.
I’ll pick Buchecha to take the back and lock up a RNC to get his first UFC W on Saturday.
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On DraftKings, it again shouldn’t surprise you that I am interested in Buchecha at 9.1k.
The downside to his game is that he’ll be fairly dependent on an early submission, and still probably won’t see a massive ceiling. One takedown and a submission could equal 98 points, rather than 115+ that we might see from strikers.
But with that said, he’s going to have early submission upside and I would bet on him getting it done. He is -165 to win ITD which is pretty strong and makes sense given the matchup and dynamics.
I won’t force Buchecha in, but at 9.1k, he is very easy to afford. I think he has a realistic shot at 100 points in a win, and I tend to feel safest betting on grapplers in general. So at this price tag, I will end up with moderate exposure to Buchecha for sure, and I consider him among the more obvious targets on the slate from an upside standpoint.
Just know that the fight is a bit binary, and there is inherent risk in that, plus any chance of the fight extending. There are enough finishers in this range to pivot away on occasion.
Plus, Buday might be able to defend for a round and use superior cardio and/or striking to win. He’s priced down to 7.1k and should carry leverage against Buchecha.
I still don’t love him. I don’t think he’ll have much wrestling success. He barely lands any strikes. If he hurts Buchecha, we still might see Buchecha pull guard. So a standing KO feels like a difficult outcome to ask, and he’s only +500 to win ITD.
I don’t hate the play. It makes some sense on paper. I only consider Buday a low-end target though and it’s not a play I’m excited to make an investment in. But in large fields, especially for leverage, I don’t mind mixing him in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Buchecha by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)