Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov
Fight Odds: Whittaker -139, Aliskerov +121
Odds to Finish: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Whittaker 8.4k, Aliskerov 7.8k
Weight Class: 185
The UFC will set ground in Saudi Arabia this weekend for the first time, on an early morning slate that will be headlined by the future Hall-of-Famer Robert Whittaker and fast-rising contender Ikram Aliskerov.
Aliskerov of course was supposed to fight last weekend, but after Khamzat Chimaev pulled out of his scheduled matchup with Whittaker, the UFC desperately needed a replacement.
And while Aliskerov was not preparing for a five-round fight, it surely feels like he’ll still present a lot of challenges for Whittaker, who’s still treading water in the division while his best days are likely past him.
It hasn’t been a huge fall off for Whittaker, and in fact he’s coming off a solid victory over Paulo Costa in 2024, but we have seen more shaky moments lately that make me question whether we can still trust him.
Most notably, it’s the durability, as Whittaker has been through countless WARS, including ones where he became the UFC champion, and he has picked up many serious injuries along the way. And as someone who backed him relentlessly throughout his prime years, Whittaker will always have a special place in my heart.
But since those memorable fights with Yoel Romero in 2017-2018, Whittaker was knocked out by Adesanya, hurt by him again in the rematch, and then knocked out by Dricus Du Plessis in 2023.
And most recently, he ate a head kick from Costa in the first round that almost put him on the canvas.
Granted, he survived, and came back to win the final two rounds, but I don’t like seeing Whittaker take more damage and I don’t feel completely safe with him in striking based fights, which is difficult because that’s the style of fight he will need to beat most opponents, including Aliskerov.
With back-to-back first-round KOs, Ikram Aliskerov has cemented himself as one of the brighter prospects in the middleweight division, and a win over Whittaker will likely skyrocket him into title contention.
Aliskerov is 15-1 professionally, earning six wins by knockout and five by submission.
His lone loss came at the hands of Khamzat Chimaev, who knocked him out cold in 2019. I just watched it back again, it was a really brutal knockout where Aliskerov was basically dead on the canvas.
Otherwise, Aliskerov has been pretty dominant. He looks like a legit prospect to me, though I reserve the right to change that opinion once I see more from him in the Octagon.
Aliskerov can wrestle really well. Maybe not as well as the best of the best in this promotion, but he’s a quality grappler, with a good double leg and great body lock takedowns.
On the mat, he can advance position well, and he seems to be a kimura specialist, as he won with that method in three of his last four regional bouts. It’s not my favorite submission to be honest, but generally speaking his submission grappling looks strong and I’d guess he’ll be a real threat against any average or worse opponent.
Aliskerov also looks competent on the feet. I would prefer that he grapple, but he can box a little bit and kick a little bit. Clearly, his power has translated well to the UFC, but it should be noted that both Phi Hawes and Warlley Alves have some durability issues.
I just still don’t have a super strong opinion on who Aliskerov is, or can be amongst the best in this division.
My guess is that he won’t continue to beat opponents inside of two minutes, and he doesn’t have a long history of standing knockouts outside of the UFC, so I’m hesitant to overreact to his success inside the UFC against very breakable opponents.
And while I do like his grappling, I’m just not sure he’s a dominant wrestler. Robert Whittaker has literally made a career out of defending takedowns and outstriking opponents, and it feels like a very realistic path to victory for him if he comes in on form.
Whittaker has a career takedown defense of 82 percent, and he has a capable get-up game as well.
My best guess is that Aliskerov can take him down, but that it won’t be an easy task. And I wouldn’t bet on him to take Whittaker down 5+ times, as that would be a new career low for Whittaker.
But it’s still an additional path to victory for Aliskerov. And Du Plessis took Whittaker down once, in an awkward exchange, and then held him down for a couple minutes and landed ground shots. That was pretty concerning actually.
It just makes me wonder if Whittaker is no longer elite in that area in comparison to what Aliskerov can offer. But from a pure data and process standpoint, I feel like it’s fair to believe Whittaker can generally defend takedowns and work up when necessary.
But that still leaves a kickboxing fight, and one that Aliskerov may be able to compete in. I would still favor Whittaker, but not largely.
Not only is the durability and general variance a concern, but I just don’t have a super large sample on Alisekrov’s distance striking. My guess is that he won’t be able to compete with Whittaker’s volume for five rounds, as Whittaker is extremely proven with strong metrics. But I can’t fully rule that out either.
When you combine all aspects, Aliskerov is definitely live. He could win via competitive striking, or damage, or wrestling.
But based on what I know, assuming Whittaker comes in on form, I will still pick him to slightly edge out Aliskerov in striking exchanges and have more success over five rounds. He will also have some KO equity, though it’s hard to quantify how much.
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On DraftKings, I feel more confident in Aliskerov exceeding his value for the price than I do Whittaker.
Aliskerov most likely needs damage or wrestling to win, and he’s priced at 7.8k. I don’t think his recent smash scores matter much in terms of future predictability, but it will give him a pretty strong ownership floor and ceiling and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up more popular than Whittaker outright.
The main concern is that Whittaker is incredibly difficult to finish, and to wrestle against. I assume those are the main win cases for Aliskerov, but it’s tough for me to jam it all in given the difficulty of the matchup.
If Aliskerov does win, I think there’s a good chance of him exceeding value and based on the +121 ML line, he has considerable win equity too. And he’s +150 ITD which is very strong.
We’re lacking some data here but what we’re working with suggests Aliskerov is a strong upside target in five rounds and is worth rostering. He probably will be chalky though.
The other angle is simply to bet against him, and target Whittaker or fade the matchup outright.
If Whittaker fights to his standard, he probably limits everything that Aliskerov can do, and that will crush a huge percentage of the field.
Whittaker has recent three-round decision wins of 68 and 65, which is awful. If you extrapolate that out to five rounds, he could still pull off a high 80s or low 90s result. That gives him a pretty strong floor in theory.
And there is upside as well. He could win by knockout. He’s +175 ITD. He could land 150+ sig. strikes which is a 90s DK result. For 8.4k, he might just be worth playing a bunch of too.
My concern is that he may not have grappling equity at all. He may be forced to defend some early and/or be held down. At best his win condition is probably super competitive. And he likely won’t push a pace, so 90ish is definitely on the table.
If he’s chalky, you could definitely make the case for coming in light, taking advantage of extra-high ownerships for the main event on an 11 fight card, and use that to be unique, hoping Whittaker wins a slower paced decision.
I think my feeling at this moment is that it’s just difficult to take a stand here. I like Aliskerov’s profile more from a fantasy standpoint, but it’s a tough matchup. Whittaker is safe but may have a tough matchup too and I question his top-end ceiling.
I’ll likely just play some of both and move on with it. I’ll consider pivoting away from Whittaker in spots to be unique. I’ll consider to be a bit under on Aliskerov given the matchup. But I’ll most likely end up with a fair share of each.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Whittaker by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov
Fight Odds: Pavlovich -236, Volkov +197
Odds to Finish: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Pavlovich 8.7k, Volkov 7.5k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really interesting fight here in the heavyweight division between top contenders Alexander Volkov and Sergei Pavlovich.
Volkov is a solid fighter. He is predominantly a striker and a volume striker in particular. He lands 5.10 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.00 in return. Those are fantastic metrics.
He also has some power and has knocked out four of his last six opponents. On the feet, Volkov is legitimately live to beat any heavyweight in the world. I think highly of him as a striker. He is diverse, skilled, and has fantastic cardio for a big man.
I also just think Volkov doesn’t get enough credit for his durability. This guy has fought the best heavyweights in the world for years. This guy has 15 UFC fights and he has only been knocked out one time which was a literal last minute knockout loss against Derrick Lewis after Volkov was dominating.
I think that is a great durability track record considering who he has fought in the heavyweight division and because knockouts at heavyweight are so common.
Volkov doesn’t wrestle much and only lands 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes. He does have submission skills though and did submit Tai Tuivasa in his last matchup.
Volkov defends takedowns at 73 percent. I generally have considered Volkov hard to take and hold down. He did have a pretty bad showing on the mat against Tom Aspinall. However, other than that, I think Volkov is generally hard to take, hold down and beat on the mat.
Volkov will be taking on the heavy hitting Sergei Pavlovich. Pavlovich is 6-2 in the UFC and is coming off a championship knockout loss to Tom Aspinall.
Pavlovich is a brute striker through and through. He comes out hot early in every fight and throws absolute bombs. He is fast and has good hands and is extremely powerful. He is live to knock anyone out in the world early, and I consider him extremely dangerous. There is a lot of variance in his fights for those reasons.
All six of Pavlovich’s UFC wins have come in round one and have all come by knockout. Pavlovich’s two losses actually have come by knockout in round one as well. He lost via wrestling and GnP in his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem, but his most recent loss against Aspinall came from a knockdown, and follow-up shots.
I definitely respect Pavlovich. He is a brute Heavyweight who can beat anyone because of how dangerous he is early. However, I still actually have some questions concerning Pavlovich.
First, I am skeptical of Pavlovich’s durability. He has really only been hit and resisted twice in his UFC career against Tom Aspinall and Alistair Overeem. He was knocked out in both contests.
I also just didn’t like how Pavlovich looked on the mat against Alistair Overeem. He defends takedowns at 75 percent and seems to have cleaned up his first layer tdd. However, I have a feeling he could get exposed on the mat again. We just haven’t seen him tested there often.
I also just question how Pavlovich will look in extended fights or when he faces adversity. All of his fights have just ended so early. Will he slow down in the later rounds or can he be a nail at all? I really don’t know. We simply know he is a good hammer early.
So even though Pavlovich is basically a UFC veteran who has fought for a title, there are still legitimate and reasonable questions about him.
I don’t have those same questions about Volkov. I know Volkov is durable and tough. I know Volkov can fight and strike for a hard 15 minutes. I also know Volkov is a decent submission grappler on the mat.
That is why I think this line is wide. Volkov may have serious advantages in this matchup that we don’t fully know yet. Furthermore, Volkov is just a really good and skilled striker. He may just be better than Pavlovich early and over the duration as well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.
If Pavlovich walked out there and knocked Volkov out dead, I wouldn’t be surprised. Pavlovich has serious firepower in his hands. However, I also think Volkov could knock Pavlovich out early.
I also just have a feeling Volkov will have an advantage in an extended fight. So I am going to go with Volkov here. I think he is more proven than Pavlovich at this point and shouldn’t be this big of an underdog.
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On DraftKings, this is among my favorite fights on the slate and my expectation is that it ends early.
Pavlovich is an early finisher, and I expect him to continue to push a pace. He’ll be four inches shorter than Volkov, though he has a four-inch reach advantage, and my guess is that he’ll push forward and hunt for the KO.
I really wouldn’t be surprised if he achieves it. He hits very hard and he’ll be the more physical party in the matchup.
Pavlovich is priced at 8.7k, and will be a pretty standard boom or bust option. But he simply doesn’t have many paths to victory, so I think there’s plenty of early KO equity if Pavlovich wins at all.
He is currently -236 to win and -170 to win ITD, which is very strong for an 8.7k DK price tag. I think that, along with his general name value and box scores, will make him an extremely popular play this weekend.
I don’t mind it. It makes sense to invest here given the upside and discount, and you can prioritize Pavlovich outright if you want. Assuming he’s super chalky, I will likely be a bit underweight to the field but I still expect to have moderate exposure in general.
Volkov has been a betting and fantasy target of mine many times throughout his career, and he’s often underrated.
While I do think Pavlovich can hurt him early, I also think Volkov has early KO upside. He can crack at distance, and Pavlovich does not take damage very well. It’s also extremely likely Volkov has more win equity in an extended matchup, and he has more grappling equity as well.
At 7.5k, I’m definitely willing to take chances and I won’t mind being overweight if the field is scared off.
Volkov is +340 to win ITD but I’d be pretty surprised if this fight went the distance. I think Pavlovich wins by early KO, and if not, Volkov probably hurts him and finishes the fight in the first couple rounds.
Sure, if we get three rounds of boring, distance striking, you may not want Volkov and you’d be unhappy with a 75 point decision. That outcome feels unlikely, but it still has 10x potential on a card that may not feature many dog wins.
More likely, Volkov is being underrated once again, and if you’re willing to sweat it out, I think he’s worth the investment. He’s very cheap with a very clear path to victory, and finishing equity, so I like this spot quite a bit and I’ll have moderate exposure to him as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Volkov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Gastelum -233, Rodriguez +195
Odds to Finish: +185
DraftKings Salaries: Gastelum 8.9k, Rodriguez 7.3k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun fight in the welterweight division as Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez will bang it out on Saturday night.
Gastelum is basically a wrestle-boxer. He is a decent striker with some quick hands, and he can throw in decent combination. He lands 3.55 significant strikers per minute and absorbs 3.23 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent. Those aren’t great metrics.
However, it is still a positive striking ratio and Gastelum’s competition has been stellar. I consider him a formidable striker who can hold his own in this division. He has reasonable power but nothing crazy.
Gastelum is also an okay wrestler. He lands 0.96 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is capable of landing spot takedowns and getting some positional control occasionally. However, I don’t consider him much more than average as a grappler, and he will struggle to consistently take down above-average grapplers.
Gastelum is also very durable. He has never been knocked out in his pro career. He is a very tough guy and he is going to be a hard guy to put away.
Gastelum will be taking on the always tough Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker and more specifically a boxer. Rodriguez lands a ridiculous 7.30 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.28 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent.
I like Rodriguez. He keeps up a ridiculous pace and doesn’t seem to really slow down either. Although he is in chaotic fights, he definitely has some skills as a boxer and it isn’t all just cardio and output in his game. I think he will continue to be a mainstay in this division. I think he can strike with most guys.
Rodriguez also seems like a tough guy and has only been knocked out once in his career, which was his last matchup against Ian Garry. I didn’t totally like the way Rodriguez looked in that fight. However, I generally have liked Rodriguez and his durability.
Rodriguez isn’t much of a grappler offensively. He lands 0.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. I actually do think he is okay and can take advantage of weak grapplers. However, I don’t expect wrestling to be a realistic path to victory for him against good fighters at Welterweight. Rodriguez is decent defensively as a grappler and defends takedowns at 63 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I am pretty torn. On the feet, I think it is very close. I expect both guys to land and I am guessing the rounds are quite competitive if no one gets hurt. I really just expect it to be extremely close. Perhaps Gastelum has a durability edge because Rodriguez was knocked out recently? However, I don’t know that for sure.
I sort of lean Gastelum in the fight because I think he is more likely to land takedowns or get clinch time. I am not too sure he will have a ton of grappling success though.
I don’t know man. -250 Gastelum seems a bit wide here. This will most likely just play out on the feet where it will probably be very close and the pace could be high. I think both guys will land and this will be close. I may just go Gastelum because of his experience in big fights, historic durability, and more paths to victory. This seems close though.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think I’ll be able to get up to Gastelum at 8.9k and my initial take is that Rodriguez is a very live underdog.
It’s just a pacing issue. Gastelum doesn’t throw strikes at a high volume, and in three FIVE-ROUND decisions, Gastelum landed 91, 89 and 62 sig. strikes.
Conversely, Rodriguez has topped 100, 120, and he even touched 175 sig. strikes in a three-round performance against Gabe Green in 2020. He just has way more volume upside, and there’s almost no chance that Gastelum gets far ahead on the numbers.
The durability is tough to analyze. I haven’t loved how Rodriguez has looked recently, getting KOd by Garry and hurt by Jingliang. Dwight Grant knocked him down as well.
Gastelum is very durable, but he was knocked down four times by Adesanya, once by Cannonier and once by Rick Story way back in the day. He can be hurt.
Rodriguez is also a lot bigger. He’ll be four inches taller with a three-inch reach edge. That length + volume usually leads to success, and it’s a spot I don’t mind backing.
Wrestling is definitely in favor of Gastelum but he doesn’t even average 1.0 takedowns per 15 minutes. Outside of randomly taking Heinisch down six times, he hasn’t topped one takedown landed in a fight since 2015.
Ultimately, Gastelum should be extremely boom or bust on DK at 8.9k. Perhaps he does have wrestling upside but even while landing six takedowns against Heinisch, he still scored 95 points because he wasn’t producing a ton of additional offense.
You’re really just hoping Rodriguez is somewhat shot and Gastelum can hurt him early. Gastelum is +225 to win ITD which isn’t great for this price, and there’s no way I can prioritize him personally.
He might rate out as a fine contrarian target though on a card with limited contrarian options. For that purpose, taking a flier on Rodriguez having durability issues is fine. I don’t think I can get there personally with a more limited portfolio, and I just don’t love the fantasy or real-life consistency from Gastelum. Pure boom or bust target with questionable metrics.
Rodriguez at 7.3k is another cheap underdog who I will target. I am worried that he doesn’t have a ton of upside, and he’s only +700 to win ITD. He won’t wrestle either.
So if you’re worried about him scoring 65-80 points in a decision win, you don’t have to play Rodriguez because that may be his upside. But I also see a very clear path to victory here, as long as he’s not completely shot, and if that’s the case, he’s probably very undervalued as well.
I don’t want to force exposure here and I like other dogs on this slate, but Rodriguez seems like a decent choice if you need to pay down, at least in terms of win equity. I don’t mind him as a secondary target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Shara Magomedov vs. Antonio Trocoli
Fight Odds: Magomedov -550, Trocoli +400
Odds to Finish: U1.5 -140
DraftKings Salaries: Magomedov 8.8k, Trocoli 6.7k
Weight Class: 185
We continue to get shifts in the fight card as Antonio Trocoli will once again aim to make his UFC debut, this time in Saudi Arabia against a top prospect in Shara Magomedov.
Trocoli was supposed to fight Ikram Aliskerov on last week’s UFC Vegas event, though he was a heavy underdog there too. The UFC pulled Aliskerov out of the contest so that he could main event against Whittaker this week.
And although Trocoli wasn’t set for any replacement, he got the call when Joilton Lutterbach popped for steroids earlier in the week and was forced to pull out.
Trocoli has that in common with Lutterbach, as Trocoli was also busted by USADA for steroids after his DWCS victory in 2019 and was released from the organization.
Trocoli is 12-3 professionally at age 33, earning three wins by KO and five by submission. He’s a tough fighter to analyze. He has fought twice since 2018. The most recent appearance was three years ago against some scrub who Trocoli choked out quickly.
Prior to that, he earned a contract on DWCS with another quick sub, and prior to that, Trocoli won a couple of regional fights by decision which are not viewable.
Prior to that, Trocoli was fighting really strong competition in Legacy FC, but that was in 2016. He lost decisions there to UFC vets Dhiego Lima and Jacob Volkmann. Then he has several wins prior to that but they were in 2014 so it barely matters.
From what I can tell, Trocoli is a mixed bag, but he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and that seems to be his strength. He’s also super tall for the division at 6’5” and I’m sure that will be talked about a ton. He’ll be three inches taller than Magomedov with seven extra inches of reach.
My guess at this point is that his grappling is good enough to beat weak competition, but I doubt his ceiling is much better than that. I haven’t seen anything to suggest he’s a very technical wrestler, and he’s probably defensively liable.
He’s largely survived all his fights though, with the exception of one TKO loss which was a RD 2 retirement, so honestly, he might be good enough to hang around for a while in fights.
His length could definitely pose a problem for some on the feet. He just doesn’t seem to be a major power threat, and I wouldn’t bet on great minute winning ability. But I’ve seen very little helpful tape and am open to changing my mind once we gather more data.
Shara Magomedov certainly feels like a tough test for him on short notice, across the world.
However I do think there are some questions with Magomedov that potentially make this an interesting test.
Most notably, it’s the defensive grappling. Magomedov is a pure striker, with a 12-0 professional record, which includes 10 wins by knockout.
He’s a very technical striker, with fast hands and legs, and his kicking game is especially effective.
In his UFC debut, Magomedov controlled the large majority of the minutes against Bruno Silva, landing 113 sig. strikes over 15 minutes. He landed lots to the legs, and to the body, which shows intelligence and sets him up for future consistency.
The biggest issue was that he got taken down three times, against an opponent who doesn’t wrestle a ton. And when he did get taken down, he just laid there, throwing strikes from his back.
While the commentators were impressed, I was nervous. It’s not a huge step to take from “throwing strikes on your back” to simply losing minutes on your back. Currently, I have some major questions as to how his defensive wrestling and get-up game will hold up.
Trocoli doesn’t rate out as the type to threaten Magomedov, but I honestly can’t rule that outcome out either.
Trocoli will very likely try to wrestle, which is half the battle. And if he gets on top of Magomedov, he could have advantages given his grappling pedigree. He’s also never been knocked out (in the middle of a round), so I’m not sold Trocoli’s durability is terrible.
He’ll likely have no real chance standing against Magomedov, outside of a flukey knockout, as Magomedov should be far more technical, effective, and he should throw more volume.
Magomedov beating up Trocoli for three rounds or knocking him out early is very much in play.
I’m just saying that we don’t have a large enough sample for me to feel comfortable that Trocoli is just going to fold with one strike, or that he can’t have some grappling success. If either of those things happen, this fight outlook completely changes.
Given the circumstances, and elite striking pedigree of Magomedov, I will still take him to win comfortably. But I’m less certain on who Trocoli profiles to be long term and he does have some tools that could at least pose a challenge for Magomedov, if his chin holds up.
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On DraftKings, Magomedov will be one of, if not the most chalky fighter on this slate at 8.8k.
He was already a value at that price with a -250 betting line, but now in a new matchup, he’s lined up to -550, making him the biggest favorite on the card by far. A true DK price based on these odds would be something like 9.5k.
That, plus a strong ITD line (which isn’t out yet), will make Magomedov a clear value option at 8.8k, and with upside, he’ll likely be extremely popular.
He’s largely boom or bust though, which makes me uncomfortable. I say largely because he actually scored 97 in a decision in his UFC debut, because he was credited with the 113 sig. strikes + another 109 non-sig. strikes which mostly came while he was being held down.
That’s an additional 21 DK points, so a true decision score for Magomedov would generally fall into the 70s or 80s.
The easy answer here is to play Magomedov because he’s priced well, very likely to win, with a decent floor and a strong ceiling. You can hammer him if you want and prioritize him on this slate outright.
The other argument is to come in underweight, which I would honestly consider at this moment.
There are some really strong options in this same tier – Gadzhiyasulov, Fakhretdinov, Haqparast, and Pavlovich, to name a few. I think some of them have as much, if not more fantasy upside than Magomedov.
Plus, there’s the boom or bust risk where Magomedov is not likely to reach a pure ceiling without an early finish. While I think a 100+ score is the most likely outcome, Trocoli lacks data and could potentially grapple, or survive, and force an extended fight. So there are ways for this to underperform expectation.
It will still be tough to avoid Magomedov entirely and I don’t think that strategy makes sense given the value, but I do think there’s merit to creating lineups that prioritize other options in this top range, simply hoping others outscore him.
Trocoli at 6.7k will be mostly used for leverage purposes, though I doubt he’ll be targeted much by the public on this slate.
While the other dogs in this range don’t have much win equity on paper, many of them are experienced talents who are arguably undervalued, and I will absolutely prioritize most others.
Trocoli’s path to victory does involve wrestling though, and probably a finish, so I think his upside is real. He’s also huge, which could potentially play a factor. Plus, you’ll get extreme leverage against a 50+ percent owned Magomedov.
If you have a large portfolio, I would sprinkle a little bit of Trocoli in, just in case. But with a more limited portfolio, he’s not worth much exposure and it would be fine to cross him out of your player pool.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Johnny Walker vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Fight Odds: Walker -112, Oezdemir -102
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Walker 8.2k, Oezdemir 8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun slugfest here in the light heavyweight division between Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir.
Oezdemir is mostly a striker. He lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.92 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent which is okay but I do consider him a bit hittable.
I consider Oezdemir a competent and aggressive pressure striker. He can pressure opponents and land in combination. He also has decent low kicks as well which was the main difference maker in his decision win against Aleksandar Rakic. Oezdemir also has some power on the feet and has won by knockout three times in the UFC.
I still have concerns with Oezdemir though on the feet. I mean even Paul Craig was wobbling him a bit and Krylov rocked him in his most recent matchups. He just looks a little more vulnerable on the feet recently and was knocked out by Jiri Prochazka, which gives me a bit of pause. He did get a recent win over Bogdan Guskov though which was nice to see.
Oezdemir also has some decent first layer TDD. He has a decent sprawl and defends takedowns at a solid 80 percent. I still worry about Oezdemir once he is actually grounded though. He has been finished on the mat against Daniel Cormier and Anthony Smith. Krylov also had a lot of success on the ground against him. Oezdemir has also shown cardio issues in the past. However, I do think his cardio has improved.
Oezdemir will be taking on UFC veteran Johnny Walker. Walker is just kind of a wild man who is dangerous on the feet. He is unpredictable and unorthodox on the feet and has dangerous knockout power. He lands 3.81 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.83 in return.
Walker’s ratios aren’t bad, but I don’t look at Walker and consider him a great round winning striker. I more so just think he is a random knockout threat. The guy has had some atrociously bad, low volume performances so he isn’t a lock to win rounds. He is also chinny and has been knocked out three times in the UFC, and hurt several times.
Walker isn’t much of an offensive wrestling threat. He only lands 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and doesn’t look to wrestle often. He only defends takedowns at 57 percent and can be controlled on his back. I actually don’t think his submission grappling is bad though. He has guard retention and seems to know basic BJJ decently well. He also submitted Ion Cutelaba so he has some tricks on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I am sort of leaning towards this fight taking place on the feet. These guys don’t really attempt takedowns with urgency. I do think one man randomly getting on top is possible but it is hard to predict that to happen with much confidence.
On the feet, I think this is competitive and I don’t favor either guy confidently from a round winning perspective. I sort of do like Oezdemir’s consistency and pressure a bit more though.
I also think Oezdemir is a bit more durable as he has only been knocked out one time in the UFC against Jiri Prochazka. That is honestly why I am leaning Oezdemir in the fight. Walker is just so chinny and Oezdemir is very dangerous.
Obviously Walker is dangerous as well and him putting away Oezdemir wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world. However, I just think there is a durability advantage here for Oezdemir and I like his pressure a bit more so I am picking him to win the fight overall.
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On DraftKings, I expect this to be a popular mid-range fight to target given the name and finishing value on both sides.
Walker is a perennial KO threat, and priced at 8.2k, it’s not too difficult to envision some upside. Oezdemir is also a KO threat at 8k, and Walker has some pretty shaky durability, so it’s easy to envision upside there as well.
I guess my main concern is that this fight is only -200 to end inside the distance. Each fighter individually is +170 to win ITD.
It’s still worth an investment, but there is some risk here as I’d consider both sides to be very boom or bust. An extended fight could spell disaster for this fight and the field.
It’s not impactful enough analysis for me to avoid the fight, but assuming it does project to be popular, there’s some merit to pivoting or avoiding this range in spots in case of the dreaded extended fight.
On face value, both sides are strong tournament options and have early KO upside. I do prefer Oezdemir as I consider him a better fighter and likely the more durable party of the two. He’s also a slight value and saves some salary.
Walker I’m less interested in but he’s also the more likely fighter to win by super-early KO, given his flashy, explosive style. So I’m actually more confident in his ceiling, despite my questions regarding his talent.
I’ll consider both sides strong secondary targets who could be prioritized if you want to buy into some risk. I likely won’t have a heavy spread between the two but will lean toward Oezdemir.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oezdemir by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jared Gordon
Fight Odds: Haqparast -233, Gordon +195
Odds to Finish: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Haqparast 9k, Gordon 7.2k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After trading wins and losses for much of his UFC career, Nasrat Haqparast will be looking to get a four-fight winning streak going on Saturday night when he takes on Jared Gordon.
Nasrat has probably not met my expectations as I once considered him a solid prospect. However, I still consider him a decent fighter and he is definitely UFC level.
Nasrat is mostly a boxer. He lands 5.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.25 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 64 percent. Standing out of the southpaw stance, Nasrat has fast hands and a really good straight left. He also has moderate power and has several knockdowns spread out in his UFC career. He recently knocked out Jamie Mullarkey which was a good performance.
Nasrat has had some beautiful striking performances honestly. He has absolutely destroyed a couple of decent fighters on the feet in Marc Diakiese and Rafa Garcia. However, he has just failed to win fights when he has gotten steps up in competition.
Hooker and Green beat him handily and Dober knocked him out. Still though, I consider Nasrat an average to above-average striker at this weight class, and he will definitely beat up fringe UFC talent on the feet.
Nasrat also defends takedowns at 78 percent. I consider his defensive grappling and scrambling competent. He only lands 0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes so offensive wrestling isn’t a huge path to victory for him, but I do think he could land some takedowns against below-average grapplers.
Nasrat will be taking on UFC veteran Jared Gordon who is coming off a knockout win against Mark Madsen.
Gordon has some issues, but I have liked him more than the betting market has and have successfully bet him multiple times. He has good metrics, is well-rounded, and has good cardio.
Gordon lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.40. He lands 57 percent of his strikes and defends strikes at 57 percent. That is solid and he is a decent striker. He has good output, is offensive-minded in general, and has some boxing skills. He is not particularly dangerous though and he has generally padded his metrics against poor competition.
Gordon is also a competent grappler. He lands 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at 40 percent. I don’t consider Gordon a great wrestler, but I do consider him average to above-average. He defends takedowns at 62 percent which is okay.
However, the few times that I have seen him taken down, he has scrambled up very well unless he gets body triangled. I also like that Gordon lands a lot of ground-and-pound in top position.
Gordon is also a decent submission grappler. He is a brown belt in BJJ under John Danaher which is an impressive rank to have. He doesn’t have many submission wins in his career and I don’t consider him a dangerous offensive submission artist. However, he is positionally sound in BJJ positions and has actually only been submitted one time in 34 professional fights.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this line may be a bit wide.
This fight will probably generally take place on the feet. On the feet, I honestly just think this is pretty close. Their metrics are comparable, and I honestly think Gordon can keep up on pace, volume, etc.
I do think I still favor Nasrat on the feet though because I feel like he hits a little harder and lands more impactfully than Gordon. If rounds are tight on the numbers, the impact of the shots could be the difference.
Still this seems close and I honestly think Gordon is more likely to land takedowns as well. I don’t expect Gordon to land many takedowns here as Nasrat has decent tdd. However, Gordon is a more active pursuer of takedowns and if he lands one or two takedowns here, it could be huge in this fight.
I will still pick Nasrat to win as I think he is just a harder hitter than Gordon, but I expect a competitive contest here that will likely extend.
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On DraftKings, this is a semi-intriguing matchup that may fly under the radar a little bit.
I think it will just be difficult to prioritize Haqparast in the top end, ahead of the studs like Gadzhiyasulov, Fakhretdinov and Magomedov. It’s possible he comes in quite low owned because of his price and the strength of this tier.
On paper, it’s not the easiest matchup and I mostly consider Haqparast boom or bust. He doesn’t have much grappling equity and although his volume is a positive, it just isn’t likely to be enough at this price to contend for the optimal.
Haqparast very likely needs an early knockout, which is tough.
However, I do think that outcome is viable. One of Haqparast’s main advantages here should be hand speed, and the other will be youth.
He’s a better technical striker, who is faster, and throws at a high volume. There’s simply a recipe here for Haqparast to land a lot of head strikes, and if one of those head strikes happens to hurt Gordon, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Gordon hasn’t been knocked out many times, but he was rocked by Green in the NC, and he really hasn’t fought many other great strikers. Honestly, he’s mostly fought grapplers in the UFC, with the exceptions of Charles Oliveira and Joaquim Silva, who both knocked him out.
I actually do think Haqparast is live for an early KO here. He’s boom or bust and only +175 to win ITD, but I don’t mind him as a pivot or semi-contrarian option in this range.
Gordon at 7.2k is one of the cheap fighters on this slate who at least has a path to victory, and is an experienced talent.
I don’t think Gordon beats Haqparast standing, but there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges and we’ve seen Haqparast hurt before too.
The bigger concern for me was in Haqparast’s performance against Dan Hooker, who took him down a few times and won that fight. Haqparast looked awful there, though there were extenuating circumstances.
Gordon ultimately may be the better grappler, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he landed some takedowns here. It’s likely going to be a part of his success if he’s to get his hand raised.
Gordon is only +725 to win ITD, and honestly, I don’t love this matchup for him. I don’t necessarily trust him to excel and hold Haqparast down. I will prefer other dogs in this range.
But if you need to punt, sure, Gordon is fine. There’s a chance he makes rounds competitive, or extends the fight at -180 to GTD. His floor is reasonable because of those metrics as well.
I’m less convinced he actually wins the fight, and so I’ll be somewhat light here on Gordon, though I’d label him a viable low-end secondary target for the price.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Haqparast by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Muhammad Naimov vs. Felipe Lima
Fight Odds: Lima -108, Naimov -106
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Naimov 8.3k, Lima 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Muhammad Naimov’s been an interesting case study. He lost on the Contender Series back in 2020 against a fairly weak opponent, to put in politely. But he rattled off three regional wins to then get the call up in a short notice matchup, making good on his debut – he’s now 3-0 in the UFC and 11-2 as a pro.
Felipe Lima was supposed to fight on the Road to UFC series but his opponent fell out and nothing ever came of the matchup. Afterward, he won the Oktagon title around this time last year and will now be making his UFC debut on a weeks’ notice, up a weight class to replace Melsik Baghdasaryan – he’s 12-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Naimov comes from a taekwondo background where he won a handful of European national titles before transitioning to MMA back in 2016. He’s not a particularly high output striker, and is more of a one and done type of guy from the outside between jabs, low kicks and high kicks.
But he’ll mix it up in the pocket as well and has shown some explosive elements to his game. Five of his 11 pro wins come via KO/TKO and he has hurt his last four opponents.
Given his background, he prefers to play in the mid-range to outside, which has been to his benefit and detriment.
We’ve seen him get walked down in numerous fights specifically against Anglin, Mullarkey and Wood. Anglin put it on him over 15 minutes, Mullarkey was winning the stand up prior to the KO in the 2nd and Wood hurt him twice, despite Naimov edging that one out.
So, he’s never been KO’d as a pro but has been hurt in a handful of fights and doesn’t serve as the clearest minute winner on the feet.
Overall, opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with a guy like Naimov but despite his recent success, he still has a style that’s relatively beatable at the UFC level in my opinion.
Lima doesn’t come from any conventional martial arts background as one of these newer generation guys who just started training in MMA at 13 years old. His striking style is best described as a pressure kickboxer.
He’ll throw some flashy techniques between high kicks and jump knees but does the basics well in his combo striking. He’s generally consistent to dictate striking on his terms, force his opponents on the back foot and keep his work rate up.
I don’t think he’s a conventional gigantic hitter, but 4/12 pro wins come via KO and he does sit down on his shots.
Defensively, he’s pretty good at range but can be susceptible a bit in the phone booth in some of the bigger exchanges.
However, I haven’t seen any durability chinks with him to date although our sample is still relatively small.
Overall, I largely like what I’ve seen from the kid on the feet so far but the sample is small.
How it plays out: The stand up is interesting as Lima has tools that can give Naimov some issues, specifically with pressure and pace. I don’t think Naimov is nearly as effective when he’s put on the back foot and that’s probably what Lima’s going to do. Both guys have explosive elements to their games as well and we’ve seen Naimov hurt before. At the same time, Lima hasn’t really faced any perennial power threats and he’s now fighting up a weight class against a guy in Naimov that can hurt people. So it begs the question of how takes shots in this fight or if he’s put on the back foot himself.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of the official ground credentials for Naimov but we’ve seen a bit all over the board from him.
He hasn’t been the most proactive wrestler historically but wrestling played a factor in his win over Wood, landing four TDs and racking up nearly seven minutes of control.
We have seen him get on top in a handful of regional outings as well, using kimura traps to sweep opponents but traditionally he isn’t the guy you can anticipate to dive on legs for 15 minutes.
Defensively, there’s been more points of concern as wrestling against played a factor in both of his pro losses to Anglin and Murad – fights he also gave up dominant positions in a handful of times.
Muduev also took the 1st round from him on the floor, Mullarkey took him down three times and Wood took him down twice – Wood nearly finished him with GNP towards the end of the fight. His general get ups have looked better in recent fights though.
Another interesting component is his cardio as I’ve seen him look pretty bad in 3rd rounds of certain fights, but then look fine down the stretch in others.
Overall, I’m still a bit shaky in what to make of Naimov as a ground fighter.
I’m unsure of Lima’s grappling credentials but he’s been training out of All Stars in Sweden with the likes of Khamzat Chimaev and Guram Kutateladze for the last three years.
In the sample we have, he’s shown to be a respectable wrestler that uses his strikes to set up his TDs and excels specifically to the legs. He’s also shown good transitional abilities in being able to lace legs, use far wrist control and advance positions.
He has lost position on a handful of occasions, but his scrambling abilities have been good to either threaten subs, sweeps, re-scramble or re-shoot.
I thought his most recent performance over Magard was impressive to win the Oktagon title as Magard is a respectable ground fighter in his own right and Lima won probably 80% of the overall exchanges in that fight, and threatened with viable sub attempts.
He did get taken down a handful of times but overall, his defensive wrestling has been respectable. That was a five round fight as well that was fought at a pretty grueling pace, so he’s also shown to have good cardio.
He has two official submission wins but I wasn’t able to view any of them. His only pro loss came via submission, but it was also his pro debut 10 years ago when he was only 16 years old, so I’m not sure how much there is to take away from that.
Overall, the kid’s ground game seems like a nice complement to his stand up.
How it plays out: The ground’s also interesting here because Lima’s shown a respectable ground game to date. But a big hang up for me here is physicality again. We just saw Naimov out wrestle Wood who was a historic 135er which is what Lima is. So it begs the question of how much he can stuff or scramble with a guy in Naimov who is going to be the stronger fighter. But if Lima can scramble and his cardio sustains, he could realize offensive success as well and is a better transitional grappler than Naimov in my opinion.
This is a tricky fight. I think Lima has the skills to beat Naimov. It’s just a question of how does he fair given the circumstances of fighting on shorter notice against a physically stronger, more experienced guy. I lean Naimov because I don’t think this is an “optimal” scenario for Lima, but he’s an interesting prospect who I feel will have success at the UFC level.
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On DraftKings, this is a weird spot because I’ve been somewhat low on Naimov throughout his early UFC career, and he’s absolutely crushed me.
He scored a come-from-behind KO in his UFC debut and he fouled his way to victory against Nathaniel Wood. His most recent early KO was less surprising.
Still, that’s contributed to a 92, 97 and 121 point DraftKings box score, which should draw a lot of attention. But now he’s fighting a short-notice opponent in Lima who isn’t even a featherweight, and Naimov is the underdog. It’s worth noting because Naimov’s success in the UFC clearly doesn’t mean much from the betting public, who aren’t exactly confident that his skills will continue to hold up.
Naimov is priced at 8.3k this weekend, and I’m not exactly stoked to roster him. I don’t think he’s a very technical striker and I’ve had some major defensive grappling concerns with him in the past.
But he’s on a full camp, against a smaller opponent, and perhaps that’s enough to put together another strong performance. I don’t think it’s out of the question he could land takedowns, or hurt Lima, though Lima hasn’t shown a ton of defensive deficiencies.
It’s really not a spot I’d want to bet on Naimov, other than the short-notice aspect and smaller opponent.
For 8.3k, if you want to mix him into your player pool, that’s fine. He’s +190 to win ITD. There’s some narrative based upside. But he’s a low-end priority for me, and I’d really only aim to have enough exposure so that he doesn’t destroy my night if he hits.
Lima at 7.9k is the value play as a slight favorite, and essential pick’em, but I’m unsure how popular he’ll be.
Paying 7.9k doesn’t exactly save a ton of salary, though there just aren’t many underdog choices this week.
What I really like about Lima is that he’s scrappy and has strong cardio. He doesn’t seem to be a great finisher, but his scrappiness should carry him through rounds and he can also wrestle a bit.
Despite the tough debut, I do think it’s possible Lima could win, and if he does, I think takedowns are likely mixed in. I am less confident in a major finishing ceiling at +275 ITD, but I suppose it doesn’t matter when he’s a value with wrestling equity.
I’ll likely target Lima a fair amount, out of semi-desperation, but there are several fighters in this range who arguably have clearer paths to a ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lima by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nicolas Dalby
Fight Odds: Fakhretdinov -369, Dalby +290
Odds to Finish: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Fakhretdinov 9.2k, Dalby 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a back-and-forth draw against Zaleski dos Santos, Rinat Fakhretdinov will look to get in the win column when he takes on Nicolas Dalby this weekend.
Fakhretdinov is primarily a wrestler. He lands 4.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of landing volume takedowns, riding out top position and dominating opponents. He landed seven takedowns against Brytan Battle and consolidated 14:11 of control which was impressive. I consider Fakhretdinov a very capable wrestler and he will continue to rack up UFC wins because of it. He dominated his first three UFC fights.
Fakhretdinov finally faced adversity against Zaleski though. He only landed 1/9 takedowns. He had a lot of early success and actually got the better of the striking at times as well. Fakhretdinov is still actually pretty powerful with his hands early in fights. However, he eventually slowed down and got beat up later in the fight.
That fight just showed me that Fakhretdinov is going to struggle and be in more competitive fights if he isn’t in top position where he thrives and is most comfortable. He is also likely to slow down if people can stop some takedowns, get back to their feet, and make him work. Many fighters in this division will probably just get taken down easily and dominated by Fakhretdinov, but anyone with solid defensive wrestling can test him.
Fakhretdinov will be taking on Nicolas Dalby. Dalby is a tough guy. I think that is his greatest strength. He is hard to put away and will come forward for a hard 15 minutes. He has outlasted opponents multiple times. He is coming off a monster come-from-behind win against Gabriel Bonfim where he was a huge underdog. He was taken down and beat up early but survived and then beat the crap out of Bonfim.
Dalby isn’t particularly skilled in any area of the sport though. He is an okay striker. He lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.43 in return.
He won’t overwhelm with pure volume but he has generally fought solid competition and has fought well. He will come forward and make opponents uncomfortable and throw hands. He can simply gas fighters out.
Dalby also lands 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and can occasionally land takedowns and rough opponents up on the floor with ground-and-pound. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and can be taken down though. He can scramble up at times, but I didn’t like that Claudio Silva obtained over seven minutes of control on him.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Fakhretdinov can surely land takedowns early and consolidate top position. He will honestly probably dominate with that aspect of his game early. I also think he can strike competitively with Dalby as well as he hits harder than Dalby.
This is simply going to come down to cardio in my mind. If Dalby can’t get back to his feet early and make Fakhretdinov work, I think Fakhretdinov will get off to a big lead and probably win the fight. Also, if Fakhretdinov just doesn’t gas out at all, he should win as well, and potentially dominate the fight.
Obviously, if Dalby survives and starts to minimize the grappling exchanges around round two or so, I do think he could be at an advantage standing and really pour it on Fakhretdinov. So there could be a pivot here and looking to live bet Dalby is probably not a bad strategy to have.
Still though, I think Fakhretdinov will have a ton of wrestling success early and I can’t ignore that. I have also seen him wrestle for a hard 15 minutes before and I consider his wrestling stronger than Gabriel Bonfim’s. So I am going to lean Fakhretdinov to get the job done here.
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On DraftKings, Fakhretdinov is another top-tier option at 9.2k, though I’ll be interested to see how the public feels about coming off a questionable draw.
Despite that 67 point performance, Fakhretdinov had scored back-to-back 130 pointers, so it’s quite possible he still gets a lot of attention. Plus, he’s known for volume wrestling which is also a big positive.
The issue is really in the strength of this range. Pavlovich and Magomedov are cheaper and should draw a ton of attention. Gadzhiyasulov is arguably a better finishing target priced right above him.
I don’t think Fakhretdinov will be overlooked, but it’s possible he won’t be too chalky.
Regardless, he rates out as one of the top overall options on the slate for me, simply due to wrestling potential. I do have worries about him getting tired, but 5+ takedowns is a very realistic outcome in an extended fight and that gives Fakhretdinov a strong floor and ceiling.
In reality, he could be prioritized over some other finishing threats, despite being only +160 ITD. Dalby is tough to finish but Dalby has also been knocked down a bunch, and he was submitted once as well.
It will be tough to come in “heavy” on Fakhretdinov given the strength of this range but his wrestling upside is too strong to ignore and I wouldn’t mind prioritizing him over the boom or bust threats below.
Dalby at 7k is viable.
I’m not sure what the public will do here either. Usually box scores drive ownership, and Dalby has won four in a row, including three consecutive 90+ scores. Despite the tough matchup, I think it’s very realistic that he could end up somewhat chalky when people need to find a pay-down.
I have mixed feelings because I do like Dalby a little bit, and was on him in his last upset against Bonfim. He’s good in extended fights, and he’s well-rounded. This is not a great matchup for him though, outside of the element where he may have superior cardio, which I acknowledge is important.
It’s just that he likely gets held down for long periods of time, which will limit his scoring. I don’t think he has clear paths to win otherwise. He’s not a huge power threat and is only +750 to win ITD.
I wouldn’t rule Dalby out, but I don’t think he’s much more valuable than the leverage targets priced below, and I consider the fighters priced above to have better win equity.
So I likely won’t end up with a ton of exposure to Dalby, though he’s at least viable if you need to punt, in a fight that’s -165 to go the distance.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fakhretdinov by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Muin Gafurov
Fight Odds: Gafurov -162, Kang +140
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Gafurov 8.5k, Kang 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Muin Gafarov is a Contender Series alum who came up short back in 2021. But he got the call up this past year and has struggled, albeit against a stiff level of competition – he’s 0-2 in the UFC and 18-6 as a pro. Kyung Ho Kang will be entering his 12th year on the active roster and falls more into the veteran role now at 36 years old – he’s 8-4 in the UFC and 19-10 as a pro.
The striking component:
Gafurov is a grappler by base but has shown decent stand-up components, more so when he’s fresh.
I’m not a particularly big fan of his work rate as he tends to fight in bursts, but when he goes, he goes with bigger explosive actions – although he fought at a more consistent pace against Castaneda where he actually out landed him both in significant strikes and at distance.
He is a bit rigid and not the most technical party, but it’s those explosive actions that have given opponents issues, resulting in 10 of his 18 pro wins coming via strikes.
Defensively, he’s not terrible at range but has struggled with effective pressure in certain outings, specifically against Lineker, and points against Anheliger and Castaneda. It was the knee that Anheliger landed in the 1st round that dropped Gafurov, and was one of the more pivotal factors in the fight. He was also hurt with a high kick early by Castaneda.
However, the guy’s really tough, having never been KO’d in his pro career – coupled with the durability he showed while eating some bombs against Lineker – but he has been hurt in multiple fights now which needs to be noted.
Overall, his stand up is respectable for someone who isn’t a base striker, who obviously has the ability to put guys down, but he’s going to run into issues now fighting at the UFC level against more technical fighters with more consistent pacing patterns.
Kang is a good-sized guy at the 135 lb. weight class, standing 5’9” with a 73” reach.
He’s reasonably technical on the feet, and will use a good jab/slip hook while working in a semi-methodical approach.
He only lands 3.4 sig. strikes per minute at 48% but his numbers will be skewed down because a lot of his fights have involved heavy grappling – he actually lands 5.3 distance strikes/minute which is better and more representative of his pace.
Kang has also shown power components despite having no UFC wins via KO. He’s scored knockdowns in four of his last seven contests, and also really beat up the legs of Danaa a few fights back.
Defensively, it’s kind of a weird story as well, as he only eats 3.3 sig. strikes per minute at 55%, but eats 5.3 distance strikes per minute at 59% — so he has been a hittable fighter. Because of his mid-range game, he’s usually not eating extensive combinations though.
However, he has been susceptible to leg kicks in the Ramos, Davis and Castaneda fights – he was also out struck in all three contests but they were competitive.
He was knocked down by Ishihara but that was more due to him brawling in the early portions which is pretty uncharacteristic of him – although he did brawl early against Quinonez last time out, which did get him hurt originally before landing a big shot of his own.
Overall, just based on his style, he’s going to continue to find himself in closer striking affairs.
How it plays out: Kang will be the bigger guy here realizing a 2” height and 5” reach advantage. From a high level, I’m usually going to favor the fighter who throws more consistent straighter punches versus the guy that throws hooks, especially when distance volume is comparable. However, Gafurov is a more dynamic kicker than Kang, which needs to be taken into consideration. Gafurov has more conventional power based on KO history, but he’s also been hurt more and I think Kang has underrated power to be honest. But Kang also isn’t as effective on the back foot and under pressure so there is merit to both.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Gafurov comes from a combat sambo background where he’s a multi-time world champion and in his native Tajikistan.
Despite the power components that Gafurov has shown on the feet and his willingness to stand and strike for periods of time, I would say his best attribute is his wrestling.
I don’t think he’s anything spectacular, but he’s got that grind in him and has shown to be the better wrestler in the majority of his outings. What I don’t like is that he can jump guillotines and he hasn’t been much of a submission threat when fighting a better brand of competition.
He’s also not immune to being taken down himself but does do a good job of working back to the feet and/or reversing positions.
He’s also historically shown good submission defense despite getting caught in a handful of guillotines and guard armbars – his committal entries caught up to him in his last fight though against Nurmagomedov where he got stuck in a ninja choke early.
Overall, we’re not dealing with Khabib or Islam by any means, but he is an above-average wrestler with some grind.
I don’t believe Kang comes from a traditional wrestling background, but his wrestling has been a key component in the majority of his UFC wins. He lands 1.9 TDs per 15 minutes at 57%.
When on top, he’s largely shown good control components but isn’t the most active party in terms of ground strikes – he out controls his opponents at roughly a 1.5:1 ratio.
But he does rep a purple belt in BJJ and has shown to be a competent submission grappler with four of his eight UFC wins coming via submission. So he will pursue the ground game, but has struggled to pass at points against guys that are competent on the floor defensively.
Defensively, he stuffs at 68% which is a respectable mark, but he has gotten stuck on bottom for significant chunks of time against Tanaka and more recently Yahya. In his defense, Yahya is a very strong BJJ player, and he didn’t get submitted which was impressive.
Castaneda went 3/8 on TDs but only got two minutes of control with a portion of that coming in the clinch, so he worked up well there despite conceding some TDs.
Overall, the ground is still more of a strong suit for Kang as his wrestling and top pressure will give opponents issues who don’t come correct, but he can be exploitable defensively at times.
How it plays out: I honestly don’t have a great read on the floor here because in theory, I can see both guys finding success. Both are traditionally pretty scrambly outside of that Yahya fight for Kang which is concerning, but Yahya also presented a far more pressing submission threat to Kang than Gafurov does here. I still lean more to Gafurov on a pure wrestling stance in terms of pursuit, but I think Kang has more submission upside of the two. But the ground is variable overall.
Super interesting fight. Kang’s a guy I’ve never had the greatest read on despite his extensive UFC career because his gameplan’s can vary and we’ve seen a bit all over the board from him – although he’s a skilled guy that can win fights in any realm which is why I respect him. Gafurov’s another guy that I still don’t have the best read on – not as much in terms of what he’s good and bad at but how he translates to a UFC level and general ceiling. So overall, my read isn’t great here on what’s a higher variance fight, but I’ll lean to the younger Gafurov.
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On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this fight, and more so on the underdog side in Kang at 7.7k.
I have targeted Kang quite frequently throughout his UFC career, with some success. He can fight with random game plans at times and he’s certainly not the most trustworthy fighter in the division.
But he’s always been a big, physical athlete with decent grappling, and he’s clearly improved his striking in recent years. Now he’s facing an opponent in Gafurov who has some tools, but also clear weaknesses.
Although I’m not confident Kang wins, I think it’s possible he’s better than Gafurov everywhere. There’s certainly a chance he’s the more technical distance striker, who can land at a higher volume and potentially more impactfully as well.
Gafurov does well to chase takedowns, but I think Kang has more submission upside and Gafurov hasn’t looked great on the bottom. He’ll give up his back.
Gafurov has been knocked down multiple times recently and was choked out by Nurmagomeodv in his last fight, so Kang has some finishing potential as well.
Kang is only +350 to win ITD, but I’m willing to target him on this slate. He probably doesn’t have as much upside as Aliskerov in this range, but I think he has considerable win equity in general.
He’s a solid secondary target for 7.7k, with some wrestling upside, against an opponent with holes. Not the most confident spot in the world but he should fight competitively if not win outright, and it’s a decent price to pay.
Gafurov at 8.5k may have more upside based on his style, I just hate his style.
He either wings overhand rights or shoots for takedowns. That’s great and all, but I don’t think he’s very consistent and his takedown game really only works against fighters who can’t defend takedowns. Once on top, Gafurov doesn’t do much.
I think Gafurov likely needs wrestling and/or damage to win though. A knockout seems totally random considering Kang has not been finished by strikes in the UFC, but Gafurov at least throws hard. He’s +245 to win ITD.
Gafurov can also wrestle and I think 3-5 takedowns are in play. I doubt he does much with them and they might not be impactful at all, but he’s good enough to dive on legs and get a bit of top time.
Over three rounds, if he can mix in several takedowns, perhaps that’s enough to push him over the 90 point mark.
I am more interested in Gafurov as a price play – meaning, if I am stuck in this range, I will considering him. I am not prioritizing him outright.
But there’s some upside within his style and he’s a fine secondary option because of it. I just don’t think he can sustain success in the UFC and am not actively looking to bet on him.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kang by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Odds: Gadzhiyasulov -309, Ribeiro +250
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Gadzhiyasulov 9.3k, Ribeiro 6.9k
Weight Class: 205
A newcomer to the light heavyweight division, Magomed Gadzhiyasulov looks like a pretty promising prospect and I’m hopeful for his chances against Brendson Ribeiro this weekend.
I was not high on Riberio entering the UFC, though some were in his initial matchup against Zhang Mingyang. Ribeiro had landed some clean shots at distance in the first minute before Mingyang connected and knocked him out cold.
It wasn’t far off from what we’d seen on the regional scene, and I had categorized Ribeiro as a kill or be killed fighter.
Ribeiro is 15-6 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned nine wins by KO and six by submission. If you’re keeping track, that means he’s won zero fights by decision. He’s also been KOd three times and submitted twice.
He’s a fine thai striker, and capable of damaging his opponent, but it’s hard to trust in his volume or durability or cardio.
Ribeiro can also wrestle, but many of his wins have come against a low level of competition. Given the right circumstance, Riberio can advance position and lock up a submission, with a base brown belt in jiu-jitsu.
However, I’ve seen him taken down. I’ve seen him reversed. And he doesn’t look particularly good from his back. I’ve seen him give up position and give up his back to stand up.
He was also knocked unconscious from ground-and-pound in 2022, in a fight that he was winning prior.
At this point, I really only have some faith in Ribeiro during the early minutes, where he’ll very likely need to find a finish. If he can’t secure it, I don’t trust in his offensive production, and I especially don’t trust in his durability.
He’ll be taking on Gadzhiyasulov, who is 8-0 professionally at age 30, born in Dagestan but representing Bahrain.
Gadzhiyasulov is a very well-rounded fighter, with a combat sambo background. He’s earned four wins by TKO and one by submission.
The issue I suppose is that the majority of his pro competition has been awful, and he’s just destroyed them in the first round. They put up essentially zero resistance.
Then he fought on DWCS and won by decision. I actually think that was a great result for Gadzhiyasulov because he was tested and we got to see him in an extended matchup. I feel much better about analyzing him after that performance.
It was still a solid victory and Gadzhiyasulov was controlling the fight from start to finish. He was lighting his opponent up at range, and after about 1.5 rounds, he had to switch it up and wrestle.
I do think he was getting tired in that fight, which is a mild concern, but Gadzhiyasulov was still able to land six takedowns and stay safe when necessary.
He definitely has paths to victories in both areas, which highlights his upside as a prospect.
On the feet, he’s technical, especially at kicking distance where he’ll occasionally show off some flashy techniques. But he’s pretty sharp, and accurate, and can definitely hurt opponents.
He landed 67 distance strikes in 15 minutes on DWCS which is fine. I don’t think his volume is other-worldly but he’ll have a solid base of offensive production, and his defense looks decent. He only got hit 24 times and defended strikes at 73 percent.
Gadzhiyasulov is also a decent wrestler, and his ground-and-pound from top looks good. I haven’t seen a ton of his submission game and I’m a little more skeptical of it, but he should be able to control, and potentially finish average or worse competition.
I think the real issues will come when he’s forced to brawl. He didn’t look too comfortable the few times he got hit, and then he started to slow down. Someone who can eat his shots, defend his takedowns and just push back could cause problems. I have mild concerns about him being a bit breakable.
But overall, Gadzhiyasulov has a very strong base of skills and I think he can win fights at this level.
As far as the matchup, Gadzhiyasulov should be better everywhere. He’s more technical as a striker and wrestler and I trust his defense and cardio more than Ribeiro.
It’s possible Ribeiro is a better pure sub grappler, but he’s been beaten up multiple times with GnP, so I think Gadzhiyasulov could find success there.
At range, maybe Riberio can hurt Gadzhiyasulov. He’ll be longer by about six inches. I think there’s some merit to Ribeiro randomly catching Gadzhiyasulov in the first couple of minutes.
But after that, Gadzhiyasulov should take over. He probably finds the chin of Ribeiro in the first round or two and puts him away. If not, he can switch to wrestling at any point and probably safely get on top.
I am not 100 percent certain of what Gadzhiyasulov’s game plan will be, which is a mild concern, but there’s a pretty large gap in skill in my opinion and I expect that to carry Gadzhiyasulov to a win, as long as he doesn’t get caught early.
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On DraftKings, Gadzhiyasulov is the most expensive fighter on the slate at 9.3k but he’s one of my favorite options in the top tier.
This fight is -800 to end inside the distance, and we’ve already taken advantage of Ribeiro’s questionable durability. Now facing an opponent in Gadzhiyasulov who has finishing instincts, a victory ITD for Gadzhiyasulov feels very realistic.
Of course, that’s the primary method of victory Gadzhiyasulov will need to challenge for the optimal, but I should also note that he would have scored about 108 DK points in a decision win on DWCS, due to wrestling.
I am not projecting six takedowns here, but if we see an extended fight, at least Gadzhiyasulov has the backup option of landing a few takedowns if necessary. It just gives him a few more outs than being a pure RD 1 KO guy, which I don’t believe he is.
The downside I guess is that he may just choose to strike early. I would probably prefer he grapple, but potentially he just goes for a flashy KO and the fight randomly extends. I could see that as the bust case.
But Gadzhiyasulov is -300 to win ITD, against an opponent who gets hurt a lot, and he has multiple paths to winning, including grappling equity. He’s going to rate out very well because of it and I’d consider him one of my main priorities in the top tier.
It’s also quite likely that the public views him as a shiny new toy, and drives up his ownership this week.
Given the new value in the 8k range, there’s still some chance that Gadzhiyasulov gets priced out of the optimal. It would probably take finishes from Pavlovich and Magomedov, but those are possible.
If you simply can’t afford Gadzhiyasulov this week, that’s OK as there’s plenty of upside priced below him. When salary allows, I’d like to pay up fairly often.
Ribeiro at 6.9k is a pure punt, though he does have upside.
I think he really needs an early KO to win, and although I don’t consider that outcome likely, there’s a lot of variance in MMA. At least he’ll throw and be aggressive, so there’s some viability. He’s +375 to win ITD which is pretty strong.
Plus, he’s likely to carry leverage against Gadzhiyasulov which is nice.
I won’t have much exposure to Riberio personally, but I’m fine with a sprinkle of him in large fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gadzhiyasulov by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Xiao Long vs. ChangHo Lee
Fight Odds: Long -119, Lee +104
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Long 8.3k, Lee 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
Our preliminary opener this weekend is the Road to UFC Season 2 bantamweight final, featuring Xiao Long versus ChangHo Lee.
Long is 26-8 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned four wins by knockout and nine wins by submission.
Clearly, that’s a ton of experience for a fighter to have in their mid-20s, and Long has been competing on the regional scene since he was a teenager.
Despite there being 34 professional fights on his record, we only have tape of a few of them, and from what I can tell, Long will rate out as a mediocre round winner at the UFC level.
I would probably classify him as a wrestle-boxer, where he is capable in both areas, but not a stand out. He’s fairly physical and carries power in his hands, but clearly that hasn’t translated into many career knockouts.
He actually fought on DWCS in 2021 and lost a decision to Christian Quinonez, who is pretty mediocre himself. The two boxed at range competitively but Quinonez hurt Long a couple of times, including knocking him down once, and that helped him edge out a decision.
We also have tracked stats on both of Long’s Road to UFC matchups from 2023, where he picked up another pair of decision wins.
In his first bout, he was essentially forced to defend against a grappling and submission heavy attack, where he was largely successful. Long couldn’t mount a ton of offense in that fight but his resistance, scrambling and general defense was on display.
More recently, he won a majority decision by essentially outlasting his opponent, and dominating down the stretch with his hands.
Long landed 109 sig. strikes in that fight and we also saw him land 78 against Quinonez, so I would consider his volume decent. He definitely carries some power as well, so I don’t want to dismiss his chances to win by KO, but ultimately I wouldn’t label him as a major finishing threat.
His ground game is alright too, though he won’t beat anyone good on the ground. At best, he can defend some takedowns, survive on the ground and scramble his way free. He can also land takedowns and land ground-and-pound, but I don’t consider his submission game super strong.
I think the best part about Long is his toughness and experience over three rounds. He’s gone to decision 18 times already, winning 13 of those fights. He clearly has enough cardio to go three rounds and I was super impressed watching him land 75 sig. strikes in round three alone in his last fight.
Long is a bit hittable, and he can be outworked as a grappler too, so I don’t expect him to cleanly win too many rounds. But he will fight fairly consistently, with some boxing and basic wrestling upside, and enough cardio to make him a tough out for many.
ChangHo Lee is 9-1 professionally at age 30, earning four wins by KO and two by submission.
He’s primarily a grappler, but I would consider him an effective striker as well.
Lee has fought decent competition on the regional scene, and he’s been in promotions like ONE FC and Brave, as well as the Road to UFC.
On Road to UFC, he won both fights by TKO via ground-and-pound. The first one came easily, but the second was an uphill battle.
Lee was losing the majority of the early minutes to another wrestler, who took him down six times and even had his back on occasions. Lee did well to survive, and scramble, and he was the fresher man down the stretch.
Eventually, he got on top of his opponent and pounded away before the ref stepped in.
I have mixed feelings about Lee because I like his athletic base, and his general style. He’s aggressive, wanting to grapple, and his wrestling and submission game seems decent.
I also like that he has fast hands and is somewhat explosive. While he doesn’t have many standing based knockouts, I think he’s capable in that area and wouldn’t be shocked if he could hurt opponents.
It’s just that not only did he struggle against the wrestling of his recent opponent, but his one loss came via wrestling in Brave as well. He still hung tough there too, but he was a bit outmatched and was also damaged a good amount on the feet as well.
It just makes this matchup a little bit difficult to analyze because both fighters have grappling bases, but have been taken down somewhat often.
I do consider Lee the more effective grappler of the two, and I think he has a better chance to hold position and potentially finish the fight. However, one thing I liked about Long was that he can scramble well, and his TDD is honestly solid, so I’m really not sure this fight plays out dominantly.
My assumption is that Lee will be the one to pursue the wrestling attack, after some brief blitzes on the feet, but there’s no guarantee he’s successful. It could very well set us up for either side to land several takedowns, even 5+ over the course of the fight because neither will have an easy time holding the other down.
Both also seem to have decent cardio, which is a positive, but I think I trust Long slightly more there as he’s gone the distance many more times.
I actually think Lee is the more explosive striker, but I’m less sure if he can sustain it. I’m not confident in his volume over 15 minutes, or his durability. But he’s probably the faster and more explosive striker of the two, and his offense is more likely to come in bursts.
Long has a better chance to land consistent volume, and he has some damage upside as well. He has more basic tools and can jab, and throw leg kicks. He could potentially pull away on the feet if Lee struggles to wrestle early.
I think Long can land spot takedowns too given Lee’s tracked 25% takedown defense, but I really don’t expect him to do much with it.
Really, I think this comes down to Lee’s ability to control the fight on the mat. He has more upside in this regard, and if he proves himself to be the better grappler early, he could control the fight and win cleanly.
If he can’t hold Long down though, this might just turn into a war. Both sides are aggressive, both can produce offense in multiple areas, and both have some defensive question marks.
It sets up well for a very fun action fight though, and it should take place at a moderate pace. I’ll lean toward the effectiveness of Lee but Long is certainly live to land with some power over an extended period.
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On DraftKings, I do have interest in this matchup though it’s not the easiest one to take a strong stance on.
Both fighters are priced in the mid-range, with Long as the slight favorite at 8.3k and Lee priced down to 7.9k.
I’m leaning toward taking chances on Lee of the two, given the price reduction and given his grappling based style. I’m more confident that if Lee wins, it will come from (potentially several) takedowns, control, and strikes.
He doesn’t have a ton of finishing equity on paper at +260 ITD, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. I do think his ceiling is reasonable even in a decision win, though there’s some bust risk as Long may be able to neutralize him.
Long at 8.3k interests me less, as I’m worried he might be stuck defending takedowns for a while and he may not aggressively pursue the wrestling game himself. If not, he’ll be dependent on an early knockout to be optimal, which is always risky.
His ITD line isn’t very strong at +400, and ultimately, the fight is projected to go the distance at -185. So I understand being cautious about this opener and not wanting to target it heavily.
I’m also expecting limited public ownerships on both sides, as I don’t see either fighter being an obvious smash, and there are many safer names on the card. Perhaps Lee is the more popular fighter of the two based on his style and his superior ITD line. If that’s the case, Long may end up overlooked and fully contrarian.
What I’m really interested in here is the pacing. Both fighters are aggressive, so there should be a high number of exchanges. If the two just neutralize each other then so be it, we probably won’t get a smash score.
But I think it’s potentially a sneaky matchup in the mid-range that could exceed value, and I especially am interested in Lee on paper for his grappling based upside. I’ll aim to be a bit overweight to the field on Lee personally, though I acknowledge it’s a risk and it may not be the easiest matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lee by Decision (Confidence=Low)