Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang
Fight Odds: Mingyang -381, Walker +306
Odds to end ITD: -1400
DraftKings Salaries: Mingyang 9.4k, Walker 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
We have a potential showcase matchup in our main event as home grown Chinese fighter Zhang Mingyang will get his first main event opportunity against Johnny Walker.
If you can’t tell who’s the A side here, it’s worth acknowledging that the UFC has chosen Walker to step in with Zhang, who is coming off back-to-back brutal knockout losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Magomed Ankalaev.
So the UFC thought yeah, this guy would be perfect for a main event spotlight against our potential Chinese star, and they’re hoping Zhang absolutely murders Walker like he has done with the majority of his pro competition.
Zhang is now 19-6 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned 13 wins by TKO and six by submission. If you’re keeping count, that means he’s never won by decision.
He’s also only lost once by decision, but he’s been KOd three times and submitted twice.
Zhang is the top LHW prospect out of China and I think he’s a decent athlete and competitor, but despite his run of success, it’s still difficult to believe he’ll amount to much more than a kill or be killed type at the UFC level.
He’s been fighting as a pro since 2014, and he’s obviously accrued a lot of experience in that time, with the bulk of his losses coming early in his career. He hasn’t lost since 2019.
But in that time, he was finished quickly on several occasions. Askar Mozharov actually knocked him out in round one in 2018.
Zhang is now on a 12-fight win streak, with all 12 of his wins having ended in round one lol. Most of them have come against horrible competition on the Chinese regional scene too, and his UFC competition has been mediocre at best.
He made his UFC debut against Brendson Ribeiro, and was able to brutally knock him out in the first round as well, after a few fun early exchanges. He also fought in Road to the UFC and won by KO in round one against Tokkos, where Zhang was actually the +450 dog. Zhang then knocked out Ozzy Diaz in two minutes.
Most recently, Zhang basically walked down Anthony Smith and beat him up for a first round stoppage. Smith tried a couple of takedown attempts but was far too slow, and couldn’t take the damage.
Overall, I think his skills are decent. Zhang is an adequate boxer I would say. He moves well and carries some speed in his feet and in his hands.
I originally thought he’d be more willing to grapple, as many of his regional TKOs have come from ground-and-pound, and I still think that’s one of his stronger attributes. I saw some of his early fights where Zhang landed a quick takedown and pounded out his opponent, and I felt like those takedowns could translate to a higher level of competition.
But it’s just tough to say for sure. It’s impossible to trust him outside of round one, but he doesn’t necessarily profile as the type who would be exhausted after a few minutes. I haven’t seen him exhausted really, just knocked out cold.
Zhang does some training out of the PI in China, but he also trains at Xtreme Couture in Vegas with Sean Strickland and others, and Magomed Ankalaev in the past which I like.
Ultimately, he’s a young, kill or be killed fighter and that should be the expectation for now. But he’s starting to take real steps up in competition and will likely be pushed into the rankings sooner rather than later. I’m highly curious to see whether he can evolve past his current profile.
Next up will be the wild man Johnny Walker, who’s known for knocking dudes out cold in round one, or getting stonewalled himself.
Walker’s most recent win actually came against Anthony Smith as well, back in 2023, but that fight was ugly and Walker mostly kicked Smith in the legs from distance. Otherwise, all six of Walker’s wins in the UFC have come by first round KO, and two of them have come inside the first minute.
He’s a good athlete, with explosive power, and he’s been very willing to fight aggressively early and hunt for that KO. Unfortunately, regression (or lack of defense) hit him hard, and Walker suffered four losses in a span of five fights that included two KO losses and four KDs absorbed.
Since his victory against Smith, he’s been knocked out by both Ankalaev and Oezdemir as well. So that’s now six losses in the UFC, with four coming by knockout.
I also wouldn’t consider Walker to be a strong wrestler, offensively or defensively. He lands 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 57 percent. His submission game is alright, but mostly, he’ll be at a disadvantage against any decent wrestler.
We’ve also long questioned his cardio, and durability. He struggles over 15 minutes unless he’s fighting someone with the pace of a snail. He does not absorb damage well. He also is defending strikes at a very poor 46 percent rate.
The good news for Walker is that he’s going to get an opponent who has no proven ability in an extended fight. Nor does Zhang have any proven ability as a wrestler. Nor does Zhang have proven durability.
So in some context, this isn’t a bad matchup for Walker. Yes, he’s typically dependent on early knockouts, but so is Zhang, and it’s quite likely the pair might just scrap for a few minutes. Walker can win that kind of fight.
He can also lose that kind of fight, and as of now, I have more faith in Zhang than I do Walker.
Walker just isn’t a strong boxer on the inside, and if Zhang backs him up, I think Zhang will land hard and put him away. It could happen quickly.
Walker has also only scored one knockdown in his past 11 fights, so he’s simply not a real, consistent KO threat anymore. Perhaps he’d have the edge past a round here, but I wouldn’t be so confident in that either.
I don’t want to get too excited by Zhang – as we see devastating KO losses every week – and this is a great example of what should be a super high-variance matchup.
However, I definitely think Zhang is the better boxer. Walker is bigger and longer, so purely at distance, Walker could have some success kicking, or with a big, explosive movement. I expect Zhang to pressure soon and throw bombs, and probably win by KO.
Either way, this one should end early.
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On DraftKings, Zhang is priced up to 9.4k but will most likely be a priority among the public, and it makes sense.
He’s -300 to win ITD and -135 to win in round one, so it definitely seems likely that another 100+ score is on the table.
The primary issue is price. It’s not just that Zhang is expensive, but Sterling is in a five-round fight and priced $400 cheaper, so it wouldn’t be out of the question to prioritize him.
Plus, it’s fully possible Nuerjai, Pereira, or Pavlovich win by early KO, and they are all priced cheaper than Zhang. AND, it’s worth noting that because Zhang is still a basic early power striker, he’s only scored 107, 107, and 120 in his three UFC wins.
If Zhang scores 107 on this slate at 9.4k, I would guess that he’s not optimal. He could be, but I’d much prefer 115+, and that outcome will be difficult to achieve without multiple knockdowns, a QWB, or a very late finish in the first round.
Essentially, Zhang will rate out extremely well and he’s among the easiest fighters to click on this slate. It makes total sense to prioritize him when you have the ability to pay up, and I do think the most likely outcome is a 100-110 point score.
But there is risk that even if Zhang hits his win condition, he’ll be priced out of the optimal. At what should be 40+ percent ownership, it’s at least worth considering pivoting away on occasion, especially if you plan to roster Aljo in the same lineup.
I still feel the most comfortable with Zhang among the top tier, and clearly with five rounds to work, he has multiple paths to reach a strong score.
Walker is a really strong underdog target at 6.8k.
I don’t think he’s very good, and I’m not really close to picking him to win this fight, but there’s no denying he’s capable of some early explosive knockouts. Mingyang has been knocked out before and he has no experience in an extended fight, so it really wouldn’t be a shock if Walker pulled it off.
I do think he’ll be popular, but playing Walker also opens up a lot more options than forcing in the standard Zhang/Aljo lineup which I think will be the most common construction.
Walker is also +300 to win ITD which is pretty solid for the price, in a matchup that’s -1400 to end inside the distance. I’m not particularly excited by Walker, but sure, I will play a fair amount of him at 6.8k for pure striking variance in a fight that should end early.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zhang by KO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling
Fight Odds: Sterling -314, Ortega +257
Odds to end ITD: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Sterling 9k, Ortega 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a grappler’s delight here between well respected UFC veterans and grappling based fighters Aljamain Sterling and Brian Ortega. This fight is actually randomly a five round fight by the way which I am kind of puzzled by.
Sterling is a fantastic fighter, and I have always been a fan of his style. He just has incredible metrics, is well-rounded, and has elite areas of his game.
Sterling is well known for his grappling. He lands 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and is one of the best backtakers in the world. He just does an incredible job of taking the back, putting a body triangle in, and either submitting or controlling his opponents. He has done this to world class fighters including Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. He is just such a dangerous submission grappler, and I think he can have success with grappling against almost anyone.
I also think Sterling’s pure takedowns are underrated. He is diverse and tricky. He can shoot doubles, clinch you vs the cage, shoot singles and run the pipe. This guy literally outwrestled Henry Cejudo. His wrestling is super underrated imo. He is also very tenacious and is capable of attempting double digit takedowns.
Furthermore, I think Sterling is an underrated defensive wrestler. His TDD rate is 42 percent but I generally think he scrambles away pretty well.
Sterling is also a fine striker. He lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.21 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent. He isn’t all that dangerous with power and he is a bit unorthodox. However, he is a good neutralizer. He stays out of range and keeps his opponents at the end of his kicks. He will also clinch opponents up and hold them against the cage. He is basically all the way in or all the way out so he is extremely difficult to hit.
Sterling has been knocked out in the UFC. However, I generally consider him a tough guy to even land on and his durability generally seems fine.
Sterling will be taking on Brian Ortega. Ortega is most prominent for being a dangerous finisher, generally with his submission grappling. He is a legitimate BJJ black belt and is a super dangerous submission grappler. He can submit people in transition, top position, and bottom position. I will always respect that area of his game.
The issue is Ortega is not the best wrestler. He only lands 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes and is just not a strong and physical wrestler. He can also be taken down himself and only defends takedowns at 55 percent.
As a striker, Ortega isn’t great and has terrible striking ratios, mostly from getting historically obliterated by Max Holloway in their championship fight years back.
However, I do consider him semi-dangerous as a striker and he can put together some decent boxing combinations and shows occasional power. I still don’t trust him on the feet though, and I think he has looked more vulnerable on the feet in recent years. He is tough but he keeps getting hurt more and more. I think some of his historic championship five round beatings from Holloway and Volkanovski are catching up with him.
Ortega just profiles as a dangerous fighter who is not a great round winner as he generally loses striking exchanges and isn’t the best wrestler. I do respect his danger and toughness though.
As far as this matchup goes, I just think Sterling is a more processed fighter and a better round winner, so I have to pick him to win.
I think Sterling could land takedowns here and potentially control Ortega, so that is a path to victory for him. I also think Sterling could always threaten with a back take and is capable of submitting anyone so that wouldn’t shock me either.
On the feet, I also favor Sterling. I just think Ortega is too hittable and Sterling is way better defensively. My guess is Sterling can stick and move, use his kicks, and just get up on the strike count.
I think Ortega needs a submission or a knockout to win. A submission is possible as Ortega is super dangerous. However, I would be kind of surprised if Ortega submitted a guy like Sterling. Sterling is a black belt himself and a super savvy grappler. Perhaps Ortega can take Sterling down given Sterling’s 42 percent tdd rate, but I don’t fully trust Ortega as a wrestler. I also just don’t think Ortega looks all that dangerous standing anymore either so my guess is a knockout doesn’t happen. This is five rounds though which may help Ortega as he has 25 minutes to potentially finish Sterling.
My guess is Sterling sticks and moves on the feet and lands occasional takedowns and gets the win. I still do think if Sterling goes for takedowns, Ortega could threaten Sterling with submission attempts but my guess is Sterling defends them and gets the win.
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On DraftKings, this now becomes one of the most important fights on the slate as it is scheduled for five rounds.
Sterling is priced at 9k, and now may be one of, if not the most popular fighter on the slate outright, due to that five-round potential.
This is kind of a weird matchup and I’m not 100% confident in Sterling, but he can land takedowns, earn control, and rack up strikes over 25 minutes. I would expect a pretty strong score in any kind of win, and I would expect him to contend for the optimal lineup.
Without any deeper analysis, I would be fine to prioritize Sterling in this range and I’d consider him one of the top overall targets on the entire slate.
I suppose it’s worth noting that Sterling has scored 121 and 86 in his two five-round wins. The latter came against Yan, and he kind of tired toward the end, which we also saw against Yan the first time.
I can’t say I’m certain Sterling won’t tire in five rounds again. Now up a weight class. In China. I just get uncomfortable with some of these dynamics. Plus, Ortega is a legit submission grappler so I’m not certain Sterling will only want to wrestle.
I could see ways this goes wrong. But Ortega isn’t exuding confidence with his game either, and I do feel Sterling should win this.
Ultimately, I’m probably just closing my eyes and playing a ton of Sterling at 9k this week. He’s +235 to win ITD but I wouldn’t expect a finish, and I’m not sure he needs one to reach a ceiling anyway.
At 9k, he’s extremely safe in any kind of win, and unless we get a super large number of early knockouts, I believe Sterling is the most likely fighter to be optimal this week.
Ortega at 7.2k is extremely viable by default of the five-round matchup.
I’m just not totally sure how he wins. I guess he could hurt Sterling, or take advantage of Sterling gassing. My best guess personally is that he may attack front head lock or guillotine chokes off failed takedown shots by Sterling. Especially if you combine that with Sterling being tired, I could potentially see Ortega locking up a submission.
Still, I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome, and I would be much less surprised if Ortega folded and got outworked for the majority of the contest.
I think Ortega falls pretty clearly into the secondary category by default, but this isn’t a great matchup for him and I wouldn’t mind being underweight to the field if he projected to be popular.
He is +500 to win ITD and fighting an opponent who doesn’t absorb a lot of strikes. Ortega could land 1-2 takedowns but without a submission, I don’t think he’d properly take advantage of the takedowns and Sterling is simply a better wrestler/scrambler.
Mixing in Ortega makes sense and playing him near the field is totally fine for the five-round upside, but I’m not super high on Ortega myself and I won’t be outright prioritizing him as a dog.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sterling by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Fight Odds: Pavlovich -261, Cortes-Acosta +217
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Pavlovich 8.9k, Cortes-Acosta 7.3k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a very intriguing fight here in the heavyweight division between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Sergei Pavlovich.
Cortes-Acosta is from the Dominican Republic, a powerhouse baseball country, and was kicked out of the Cincinnati Reds’ organization after getting into a fight with a teammate. He then got into boxing training and started MMA shortly after so he doesn’t have a deep fighting pedigree.
Cortes-Acosta honestly is decent and has fared well in the UFC thus far, and is 8-1 in the UFC. I have randomly bet this guy successfully like five times. He is clearly best as a boxer. He relies on his hands and his jab a lot. He is a pretty good athlete for HW, and I do consider his hands decent. He has some alright speed. He has power as well, and I do think he is knockout capable in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He has decent timing on his strikes.
Cortes-Acosta basically just looks to land at distance and mix in dirty boxing in the clinch. His cardio looks to at least be solid and he seems like a tough dude. I think his durability and composure is a strength of his.
Acosta lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.43 in return. Those are good metrics and I like that he lands consistently without tiring badly. Waldo also has dominated the head strike numbers in his fights thus far. I overall like his striking.
Cortes-Acosta doesn’t look to wrestle all that often and he doesn’t really have a ground game background, so I doubt grappling is a consistent path to victory for him at this level. However, he did recently outgrapple Robelis Despaigne which isn’t saying much, but it at least showed that he can take advantage of fighters with major holes. He also may just be improving in general as he is young from an MMA career standpoint.
I honestly think Cortes-Acosta’s takedown defense is decent too. He was outwrestled a few years ago by Marcos Rogerio De Lima. However, he now defends takedowns at 66 percent and has defended takedowns well since. He also has shown some get-ups. Some good grapplers can probably expose Cortes-Acosta on the mat. However, I think he is pretty serviceable as a defensive grappler.
Acosta will be taking on Sergei Pavlovich, Pavlovich is 7-3 in the UFC. He has two losses by knockout to Overeem and Aspinall. He also lost to Alexander Volkov by striking based decision and was outlanded 83-46 in significant strikes.
Pavlovich is a brute striker for the most part. He is super aggressive and nearly all of his wins have come in round one by knockout. Pavlovich just comes forward and throws wild hooks and punches on his opponents. He is explosive and fast, and generally just bullies his opponents and finishes them. He has a lot of power and I expect him to generally win fights by early knockout.
Pavlovich did randomly just outwrestle Rozenstruik a bit though. He landed a couple of takedowns and got top position in every round. It at least showed an additional path to victory for Pavlovich and that he can take advantage of weak grapplers on the mat.
I definitely respect Pavlovich. He is a brute heavyweight who can beat anyone because of how dangerous he is early. However, I still get concerned with Pavlovich.
First, I am skeptical of Pavlovich’s durability. He has really only been hit and resisted twice in his UFC career against Tom Aspinall and Alistair Overeem. He was knocked out in both contests.
I also just didn’t like how Pavlovich looked on the mat against Alistair Overeem. He defends takedowns at 75 percent and seems to have cleaned up his first layer takedown defense. However, I have a feeling he could get exposed on the mat again. We just haven’t seen him tested there often.
I also just question Pavlovich in extended fights. Like I said above, he had an extended fight vs Volkov and got doubled up 83-46 in significant strikes and didn’t look great. If he doesn’t knock out opponents early, he could easily get outlanded over the duration.
As far as this matchup goes, I have gone back and forth here. I don’t think either guy will have a ton of wrestling success. Maybe Pavlovich tries to wrestle? However, I doubt it. Also, I don’t even think Pavlovich could easily take or hold Cortes-Acosta down.
So there is a good chance these guys strike. Pavlovich does hit harder so he may just knock Acosta out early. However, I have my doubts about that. Cortes-Acosta has never been knocked out or even hurt really.
Cortes-Acosta may even knock Pavlovich out as well. Acosta has some pop and Pavlovich has been knocked dead and hurt often. I think there is a lot of variance in this fight and either guy has a real shot at a knockout. Pavlovich has the edge in power but Acosta probably has the edge in durability.
If the fight goes 15 minutes, I think it will be close. However, Cortes-Acosta is probably a better and more proven durational striker. Pavlovich does hit harder though.
I don’t know man. I think this line is wide and I could easily see Cortes-Acosta winning. I think he is more durable and more proven as a durational striker. I am going to go with Acosta for the upset.
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On DraftKings, Pavlovich will be dependent on an early knockout to exceed value at 8.9k.
In his lone decision win, Pavlovich scored 85 DK points which came from two takedowns and 6+ minutes of control. His career high in strikes landed is 46, and I just see zero upside beyond a quick finish.
The good news is that’s how most of his wins come. He can knock out anyone in the world. He can also lose to a handful of opponents, either by knockout, or over the duration.
In this particular matchup, I don’t see a reason to think Pavlovich deads Cortes-Acosta quickly, but it could happen. He’s a brute and he’ll have six inches of reach over Cortes-Acosta.
Pavlovich is -125 to win ITD which is solid enough, and certainly puts him in play. Although I’m not really high on Pavlovich in this spot against an opponent who rarely gets hurt, I do think Pavlovich carries enough finishing equity in general to put him in consideration.
I certainly wouldn’t want to be heavy on this spot as there’s clear bust risk in an extended fight, and I worry the public will play him into semi-chalk. But having some exposure to Pavlovich makes sense just given the majority of his wins will come quickly.
Cortes-Acosta at 7.3k is definitely a risk, but I think he can win. He’s a better round-winning boxer and he’s probably more durable as well.
The issue is that he may lack a clear ceiling as well. He could get hurt early. He probably won’t wrestle. Landing 60 strikes in a decision win wouldn’t be super exciting.
Cortes-Acosta has landed 147 sig. strikes, and 110 sig. strikes in a couple of his decision wins. It doesn’t translate into an elite score but it’s respectable volume. Plus, he has some KO upside.
Cortes-Acosta is only +450 to win ITD but I don’t see a reason to believe his finishing equity is that dramatically worse than Pavlovich’s. I do think he could hurt Pavlovich.
I like Cortes-Acosta some this week. I’m not dying to play him, but he has a path to victory and he’s cheap, with some variance-based upside. He’s a fine secondary target and I’ll probably aim to be near the field, or perhaps slightly overweight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Sumudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas
Fight Odds: Sumudaerji -179, Borjas +152
Odds to end ITD: +185
DraftKings Salaries: Sumudaerji 8.5k, Borjas 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random fight here in the flyweight division between Sumudaerji and Kevin Borjas.
Sumudaerji is legitimately one of the worst grapplers in the UFC. It is very rare to see a fighter in the lower weight classes this bad on the mat. He is absolutely awful when he is grounded, he gives up advances of positions and can be pummeled with ground-and-pound or submitted easily.
I do think Sumudaerji has some decent first layer takedown defense though. He defends takedowns at 67 percent and can defend some tds here and there. When he gives up a takedown though, he is just awful on the mat. Don’t get fooled with him almost triangling Charles Johnson either. I thought he also looked terrible on the mat in this fight and most fighters would have stifled that and passed Su’s guard easily.
Sumudaerji is a solid striker though. He is tall at 5’8” which is huge for this division. He also fights long and controls range well, fighting out of the southpaw stance. He has a piston left hand and is very accurate and powerful with it. He also has a good kicking game. He can hurt people on the feet in this division. He lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.63 in return. He can continue to win striking fights in this division.
I do think Sumudaerji has suspect durability though. He has been hurt a few times in the UFC now and even Matt Schnell was hurting him badly on the feet.
Sumudaerji will be taking on Kevin Borjas. Borjas is a Peruvian fighter who is 10-3 professionally. Borjas is 1-2 in the UFC, suffering losses against Alessandro Costa and Joshua Van but winning as an underdog in his last fight against Ronaldo Rodriguez.
Costa was able to just kind of beat Borjas up and then compromise him with leg kicks, and eventually finish Borjas on the mat. Borjas actually hurt Joshua Van early and won the early portions of the fight. However, Van eventually walked Borjas down, got him tired, and beat him up to win a clear decision.
Those are two extremely difficult matchups for your first two UFC matchups so I do forgive Borjas a bit.
Borjas had a more manageable fight on the Contender Series against Victor Dias. Dias is a grappler and did have some success taking down Borjas and getting some decent positions. In the last couple of rounds though, Borjas fought back and landed the better strikes. Although referee Chris Tognoni gave an awful standup in round three that basically won Borjas the fight. Borjas outlanded Dias 87-43 in significant strikes.
I still don’t think Borjas is great but I do think he looked decent against Ronaldo Rodriguez in his recent win. Borjas showed off some of his striking skills in that fight and managed to put together a solid 15 minute performance without slowing down too much.
I mostly consider Borjas a striker. He is a decent striker and you did see that a bit in his Contender Series fight, in round one against Van, and against Rodriguez. His hands are decent and he likes his jab and straight punches. He will also follow up his straight punch combination with a left hook to the body. I do like some of his body shots. He also has okay volume and some pop in his hands. He generally knocked all of his opponents out on the regionals.
I basically think that is all Borjas really has though. He is a decent striker for a bit and is moderately dangerous. However, he does get a bit tired. He can be tagged a bit on the feet too and I don’t think he has the best durability. He also doesn’t look like much of an offensive wrestler at all.
I also think Borjas’ defensive grappling is a liability. On the Contender Series, he was taken down and put in really bad positions. He used some physicality to defend takedowns here and there, but he clearly is unskilled as a grappler. I also saw him get club and subbed on the regionals, and I just didn’t like how easily he got his back taken and choked out. You also saw Costa just handle him on the mat too even though Borjas was hurt a bit. I definitely think Borjas will get exposed on the mat at this level.
Overall I think both Sumudaerji and Borjas have flaws. Both are defensive grappling liabilities but have okay first layer TDD. Luckily, they both like to strike so we will probably see them strike against each other and display what they are best at.
I honestly think this is pretty competitive. I still think Sumudaerji is way more proven as a striker. Borjas hasn’t really ever beaten anyone of note except Rodriguez who isn’t even a good striker. Sumudaerji is also longer and likely has a kicking game. I do think either guy could hurt the other as both have some pop and both have suspect durability.
I really think the line is reasonable. I could see either guy landing a knockout or knockdown. I could also see rounds being pretty competitive and either guy winning a striking based decision. I do think mildly favoring Sumudaerji makes sense given he is more proven and much more experienced. He also is probably more diverse as a striker with his kicks. I am expecting a pretty competitive scrap.
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On DraftKings, I’m expecting the fantasy potential of both sides to be dependent on a knockout, which is a bit scary given that the fight is -240 to go the distance.
Given that, I don’t consider this fight a priority. Sumudaerji has scored 50 and 55 points in his last two decision wins, and Borjas just scored 73 points.
Sumudaerji is priced up to 8.5k, and carries a +375 ITD line. I do think he’s a semi-dangerous striker and a KD wouldn’t be completely out of the realm of possibility. I’m also expecting him to be low owned, so perhaps he’s viable as a pure contrarian target.
There just isn’t any real grappling equity here and it’s tough to rely on a finish. Mix some of Sumudaerji in if you wish, for pricing and low ownership, but he has a very thin window to hit and that makes me very nervous.
Borjas at 7.7k could be viewed as the priority as he’s cheaper, and has the same ITD line as Sumudaerji at +375.
It’s still not particularly strong. I really wish he had wrestling equity but it’s impossible to bet on.
Both guys can be hurt though, and Sumudaerji has been knocked down before. A random KO is still in the equation.
I’m not particularly high on Borjas though. The fight is -265 to go Over 2.5 rounds, so it’s just tough to make a real bet on this one.
Like Sumudaerji, I would expect Borjas to be relatively low owned, and as one place to be unique, he’s fine. There are other underdogs I would rather take chances on ahead of Borjas.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sumudaerji by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Taiyilake Nuerjai vs. Kiefer Crosbie
Fight Odds: Nuerjai -454, Crosbie +357
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Nuerjai 9.3k, Crosbie 6.9k
Weight Class: 170
I’m actually excited for the debut of the “Super Saiyan” Taiyilake Nuerjai, a homegrown Chinese prospect who will step into the Octagon against Kiefer Crosbie on Saturday.
Nuerjai is 11-1 professionally at age 24, with 10 of his wins coming by KO and the final win coming by submission. His lone loss was by TKO in 2021.
Nuerjai fights with a taekwondo style stance out of Southpaw, and has been able to pick his opponents apart with kicks from the outside. He is also willing to be aggressive, close the distance, and box.
I really like the fluidity to his game. Although I don’t love karate style striking, Nuerjai is difficult to hit, and I think he can control exchanges pretty well. He just looks sharp to me, and accurate, and he has been able to inflict real damage on most of his opponents.
Nuerjai does throw spinning stuff more often than I’d like, but he’s super tall and long, so he can connect. He will also throw flying knees. He’s a dangerous striker, though perhaps not perfect in terms of processing.
Nuerjai fought a pretty dangerous striker in HanSeul Kim on Road to UFC in 2023, and Nuerjai knocked him out brutally in the second round, in what was a really fun war. He outlanded Kim 73-49 in 6.5 minutes which shows great pacing as well.
There’s really a lot to like with Nuerjai here on the feet.
My biggest concern is that he hasn’t won any decisions, and his only loss was by TKO in round three. On some levels, it’s a typical red flag that should give us pause.
However, I have seen him fight into round three before, and he looked OK. He at least fought well through two rounds, and looked a bit slower in round three where he still did secure the TKO. His loss by TKO in round three was also by liver kick (I couldn’t watch the fight), so that doesn’t necessarily indicate a cardio failure.
So I don’t believe Nuerjai is a first round or bust type. I do think the majority of his success will come in the first couple of rounds, and he may very well slow down, but I think he can win decisions in striking fights at the UFC level.
With that karate style stance, he can be caught if opponents pressure him and get on the inside, where his defense is weaker. It would take a certain type of opponent to get past his range, put that pressure on and keep it there.
Furthermore, I’ve actually liked what I’ve seen from Nuerjai on the mat. I’ve seen him sprawl pretty well, and never taken down. And I’ve seen him shoot a handful of takedowns with success.
I don’t believe he’s some fantastic submission grappler, but his offensive wrestling actually looks decent and he probably can use it at this level. I would be worried about him getting grounded by a real strong wrestler and he might be poor from his back, but his takedown defense isn’t useless.
Overall, this is still a young prospect with room for development. I don’t think he’ll run away with fights against strong competition. But I do like his base of skills and I consider him a very effective striker, and I’m hopeful we’ll see him pick up some Ws.
The UFC obviously wants to build him up, which is why he’ll be opposed by Kiefer Crosbie who is 0-2 in the UFC with two first-round submission losses.
Crosbie is a product of SBG Ireland and is now 10-5 professionally with five wins by knockout and two by submission.
He actually has a win over ex-UFC talent Alex Oliveira, but doesn’t project as a great talent and likely won’t stick in the promotion if he loses to Nuerjai this weekend.
He was finished multiple times in Bellator, and won a celebrity boxing match against Aaron Chalmers before coming into the UFC.
Crosbie profiles as a striker, and not a great one. His stance is sound which I like, and he’s decently tough, but he’s also hittable and I’ve seen him hurt a number of times.
He’s just more of a standard, basic striker. He can be aggressive and throw in volume, and I’d say is more willing to brawl.
But at best, he’s going to stay competitive with an average caliber of opponent, and I’d say his knockout ability is more attrition/pace based than power based. He seems like he’ll get hurt and finished at times too.
I didn’t love his wrestling coming into the UFC and his submission grappling has looked awful. He has insta tapped both to Jousset and Patterson, although that’s not a horrible level of competition, he just put up zero resistance once the fight hit the mat.
I’ve seen some slick back takes out of him in the past, but at this point it’s tough to rely on.
Nuerjai will be three inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage, and Crosbie will have to pressure him and hope to get on the inside. I expect him to get hit a lot as he attempts to do that.
In theory, if he can pressure and get on the inside, he could hurt Nuerjai. Or he could put that pressure on for 15 minutes, tire Nuerjai out, and finish him later in the fight.
My best guess is that Nuerjai schools Crosbie though. He should be able to land some power shots as Crosbie closes distance, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an early finish.
Nuerjai can probably take Crosbie down too, and maybe sub him. He has one sub on his record and I saw him attack a couple of armbars from top position, so maybe he’s actually competent there too.
Really.. this would be a massive disappointment if Nuerjai failed to come through. It’s not that he’s a blue chip prospect but Crosbie is a mid-level regional talent with some basic power boxing and toughness. Nuerjai should be bigger, more technical, and the more effective striker and wrestler.
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On DraftKings, Nuerjai is still pretty boom or bust at 9.3k, but I do like him.
The reality is he’s never won a decision, and he’s fighting an opponent who’s failed to make it past round one on both occasions. Nuerjai is -235 to win ITD which is really strong.
I personally “feel like” there’s a pretty strong chance Nuerjai scores an early finish, so I am willing to play him at this price.
It’s just that he could easily land 30-40 strikes in round one, and not get a finish as well. So if the fight extends, there is bust risk.
Even on RTUFC though, Nuerjai won by RD 2 KO with 73 sig. strikes, and he would have scored 109 ish DK points. He also has wrestling equity though I think it’s tough to rely on.
Zhang will garner the most attention in this range which is fair, and based on that alone, you don’t have to prioritize Nuerjai. However, I do like him in a vacuum, and I think he has a shot at an early finish. So when I do have the ability to pay up, Nuerjai will be in strong consideration for me.
Crosbie at 6.9k would classify as a leverage target.
You’re basically hoping Nuerjai completely fails, can’t be impactful with his striking, and allows Crosbie to walk him down and hurt him. Crosbie probably wins by TKO if he wins at all, and he’s +350 to win ITD.
Newcomers aren’t the most trustworthy fighters in the UFC either, and we just saw a -500 debutant lose last week in Idiris. It’s not impossible he’s simply overrated and underperforms under the bright lights.
However, I don’t feel inclined to roster much or any Crosbie. He’s not a strong talent and this isn’t a good matchup for him on paper.
I only consider him a low-end target or a dart throw, and outside of a sprinkle in large fields, I will avoid Crosbie personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nuerjai by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Maheshate vs. Gauge Young
Fight Odds: Young -129, Maheshate +110
Odds to end ITD: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Young 8.2k, Maheshate 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Maheshate’s a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season who came into the UFC with some hype surrounding him, but he hasn’t lived up to expectation – he’s 2-3 in the UFC and 10-4 as a pro. Gauge Young’s a fellow Contender Series alum but came up short in his opportunity last year. However, he was brought into the UFC back in April as a short-notice fill-in where he lost a unanimous decision to Evan Elder – he’s 9-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Maheshate comes from a striking background and is a good sized 155er, standing 6’ tall with a 71” reach.
Our sample on him still isn’t crazy vast but I’m starting to get a better gauge of his game. Being that he’s the bigger guy at the weight, he primarily excels at range and when he can dictate the exchanges of his fights.
He’s got some good front kicks, knees, check hooks and straight rights. He’s also shown power components with four of his 10 pro wins coming via KO.
The primary issue I have with Maheshate is that he’s one of these guys that really needs to be in the driver’s seat to have overt amounts of success.
We saw him struggle with the pressure of Estremadura early on the Contender Series where he got hurt multiple times and dropped the 1st round – Estremadura just got tired after that and Maheshate more or less took over. He then iced Steve Garcia early who just came at Maheshate too recklessly.
The distance exchanges with Rafa Garcia were competitive but he struggled with the blitzing nature of Garcia. That fight was kind of alarming from a striking perspective because Maheshate had a good size advantage and only went 23/138 at distance – he also got tired in that outing.
Against Borshchev, he got outworked and struggled with the technicality and diversity of strikes where he got outlanded 69 to 29 at distance and was dropped three times, getting officially TKO’d.
He had a really competitive striking fight with Benitez where he was outlanded 120 to 93 at distance but edged out a close decision – forward optics helped Maheshate out in earning the nod but realistically the fight could have gone either way.
Most recently, he just got outworked by Motta where he was outlanded at distance 67-53 and was also knocked down twice..
While Maheshate will throw, the most alarming statistic is that he’s only landing at a 29% clip – very poor generally but especially for a base striker.
Overall, while I’ve seen some potential with Maheshate still at only 25 years old, he just hasn’t put everything together yet and at this point, I’m not sure he ever will. The guy needs to fully harness how to use his tools with consistency and actual efficacy.
Young’s a wrestler by base but we’ve also got some distance time for him as well.
He has some traditional wrestler/boxer tendencies as a guy who likes to come forward and sit down on his shots, but he’ll kick a healthy amount to boot. He’ll traditionally keep a good pace and has shown power elements with six of his nine pro wins coming via KO/TKO – his right hand is traditionally his money shot that he’s hurting opponents with.
Defensively, he has some linear elements in addition to him not moving his head off the center line all that much so he’s shown to be a hittable fighter despite being a relatively tough guy.
While he definitely competed with his last two opponents in Salkilld and Elder, he was also just a step behind and ultimately got outlanded in both contests at distance.
Overall, I don’t mind Young as a striker as he’s shown to be game but he’s going to need to evolve defensively now fighting at the UFC level.
How it plays out: Off the top, Maheshate will realize a slight size advantage of 3” in height and 1” in reach. While I think Maheshate’s the “smoother” striker, it’s still hard to ignore his lack of accuracy and the fact that he’s only defending strikes at 53%. Just by proxy of that, I’d anticipate Young to be competitive in extended exchanges at a bare minimum. But as noted, Young’s still pretty hittable himself and while Young is tough, I do have concerns with the explosive actions of Maheshate. There’s knockdown variance both ways though as we know that Maheshate can be hurt as well and Young does have power.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There isn’t much to say here offensively given that Maheshate is a base striker and he’s rarely wrestled.
He shot twice against Borshchev, but both were stuffed with relative ease – not the best of looks given Borshchev’s historic TDD struggles. He has one win via submission, but it was back in 2019 in his 2nd fight pro fight which isn’t available online.
Defensively, there is a bit to say.
It was in his 1st pro loss against Goncharov where he got grinded out for the better part of 15 minutes.
Then, Rafa Garcia went 6 for 11 on TDs, racking up six minutes of control time.
Maheshate was able to stuff early but it was when Garcia was able to close the distance and begin to grind, the TDs started coming easier which really put a stamp on those rounds. In the defense of Maheshate, Garcia is a good wrestler whose larger career successes have come from the floor.
Most recently, Motta got to his back in the 3rd post knockdown. But outside of the Garcia fight, he hasn’t faced any other TDAs in the UFC.
Overall, the floor’s been a larger component in how Maheshate’s dropped two of his pro fights and he hasn’t shown to possess any real offensive upside.
As noted, Young comes from a wrestling background where he competed through his high school years but never went on to do anything collegiately. Through most of his regional tape, he was consistent to shoot where he found a healthy amount of success with his wrestling, particularly to the legs.
When on top, his control’s generally been good and he’s shown GNP abilities which has gotten a few opponents out of there, but he only has one pro win via submission – I’m unsure of his grappling credentials and he doesn’t appear to be particularly potent in that regard.
However, he didn’t wrestle much in his last couple losses against Salkilld and Elder but I think part of that was just due to the matchup – Salkilld is a superior ground fighter and Elder’s historically been tough to take down and hold down.
So we didn’t see much ground time in the Elder fight but Salkilld shot a bunch – specifically 22 times where Salkilld secured 9 TDs but only got little under 5 minutes of total control – Salkilld also took his back multiple times but Young did a good job of fighting hands which was impressive against a guy like Salkilld who is a black belt.
Outside of that fight though, his TDD has generally looked strong and he’s shown the ability to scramble.
He was submitted in his first pro loss by Bobby Lee but it was a fight I wasn’t able to view – if I had to guess, Lee probably got him in the guard with the armbar.
Overall, I like to see a larger more relevant sample before making any super definitive claims with Young’s ground game – more specifically because the guys he was running over on the regional scene weren’t very good but conversely, getting bested on the ground by Salkilld isn’t much of a knock in my opinion.
How it plays out: While Young isn’t Jordan Burroughs, he’s the guy with all the upside here as the base wrestler who’s had a healthy amount of ground success over his career where the same can’t be said about Maheshate. As noted, Young didn’t wrestle much in his last couple losses but this is a fight where I’d project him to wrestle a healthy amount and realize success. He also profiles to have the better cardio in this particular matchup so similar to the Rafa Garcia fight, Maheshate may be able to put up honest early resistance but under the assumption that Young is proactively wrestling, his ground success should grow as the fight progresses.
Young’s still getting his feet wet in the UFC and while Maheshate will be the home country fighter, Young has a game that should give a healthy number of issues to Maheshate. I feel he can compete standing barring he doesn’t get blasted and has essentially all of the grappling upside (barring unknown improvements from Maheshate). I like Young to pick up his first UFC win.
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On DraftKings, there is some upside with this matchup but it will also classify as one with bust potential as well.
Maheshate is very clearly boom or bust and dependent on a knockout. I was actually somewhat high on him in his last fight against Motta, but he got spanked, and it’s pretty difficult for me to want to click his name here.
In theory, Maheshate still has KO upside. He can be aggressive, and he can throw with power. Young has never been knocked out though, and he seems kind of tough. Maheshate is +300 to win ITD and priced at 8k.
My expectation is that he won’t be highly owned, coming off an ugly loss last time out. So he could be one option with a high-upside profile who could fall under the radar.
Still, I don’t think I want much exposure personally. I’d rather bet on Young winning or simply surviving and extending the fight past the first round. I don’t mind the strategy of taking some Maheshate for leverage or upside, but it’s a big risk and not one I feel confident in.
Young is priced at 8.2k and could be similarly boom or bust, though he has wrestling upside as well.
Technical Tim coached against him at the Missouri state high school wrestling championships and doesn’t think he’s a particularly good wrestler – we bet against him last time out against Elder. So I don’t want to enter this matchup thinking Young is some great wrestler and likely to succeed.
However, he should be better than Maheshate, who is defending takedowns at less than a 50 percent rate. Young may actually have multiple takedown upside, and some finishing equity on the mat.
On the feet, Young could hurt Maheshate as well. He’s not a particularly great striker but Maheshate has been knocked down 2x or more in two of his last three fights. The most likely outcome is probably Young landing 80 strikes in a decision, and busting, but striking is high-variance and he could get a KO.
Young is +225 to win ITD and he will be my preferred play. I also think he’ll be the higher owned fighter of the two publicly.
I don’t mind taking shots on Young because he has multiple paths, and is priced into the mid-range. He still shouldn’t be chalk. It’s another risk, but secondary exposure here makes sense to me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Young by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson
Fight Odds: Kavanagh -204, Johnson +172
Odds to end ITD: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Kavanagh 8.8k, Johnson 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a quality fight here in the flyweight division between prospect Lone’er Kavanagh and UFC veteran Charles Johnson.
Lone’er Kavanagh is 9-0 professionally and is 26 years old. He fights out of England and comes from the Nathanial Wood camp. He is a five-time K1 kickboxing champion and has a lot of combat sports experience in general. He has fought most of his MMA career in cage warriors where he fought some solid competition and gained some good experience.
Kavanagh booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out his opponent on the Contender Series early. His opponent was actually a promising prospect. However, Kavanagh landed an insanely fast left hook that knocked his opponent dead.
I honestly like Kavanagh’s game and believe he could probably compete with some top 15 flyweights now.
Kavanagh is probably best as a striker given his kickboxing background. He is extremely athletic and can switch stances effortlessly. He also has some very good power for a small man and consistently hurts his opponents.
Kavanagh controls range well and is extremely fast. He is quick with his in and out movement and can land a wide variety of strikes. He has a nasty left hook. He will also land kicks to the body and legs. He also seems tough. I have seen him dropped once but he recovered very well. I overall just think Kavanagh is a very solid striker with his athleticism, speed, and strike diversity.
I would like Kavanagh to throw more volume though as he only landed 58 and 51 significant strikes in his two UFC decisions. He fought two super aggressive guys in Ochoa and Felipe Dos Santos, so Kavanagh played a matador type of game which was honestly probably the right call. However, I do think he needs to throw more in the future to separate himself on the cards.
Kavanagh is also a pretty decent wrestler. I haven’t seen him fight any good grapplers, so I do think he is a bit untested. However, my eyes tell me that he is a competent grappler. He is capable of landing takedowns with his speed and drive in his shots. He can also ride out top position. He generally looks to wrestle to put a stamp on rounds or if he is in any danger on the feet. He landed four takedowns against Felipe Dos Santos which was good.
Kavanagh also looks like a pretty solid defensive wrestler too. I have seen him scramble well and defend takedowns. I do want to see more of it though. Overall, Kavanagh is a solid fighter. He can strike and wrestle offensively. He also is a sound defensive fighter. I don’t think he is elite anywhere though and that will probably be his biggest struggle as he moves up the ladder.
Kavanagh will be taking on Charles Johnson. Johnson is coming off a tough decision loss to Ramazan Temirov where Johnson struggled early but came on strong late.
Johnson is 6-5 in the UFC and I mostly consider him a striker. He attempts takedowns here and there. However, I expect striking to be his path to victory generally.
Johnson is actually a decent boxer, and I do think he is slick from time to time with his hands. He lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.62 in return which are some great metrics. I think he can strike with most fighters in this division honestly. He also has some power and is very durable. He has never been knocked out or submitted in his career. Johnson also has really good cardio and I consider it a strength of his.
Johnson is an okay defensive wrestler but not great. He defends takedowns at 67 percent and was outwrestled badly by Muhammad Mokaev. Johnson at least can kind of defend takedowns and looks to work up to his feet which I like.
Johnson only lands 0.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes and attempts a couple of takedowns per fight.
Overall, you know what you will get with Johnson. He will defend takedowns decently and give most guys a competitive striking fight for 15 minutes.
I honestly expect that to happen here between Johnson and Kavanagh as well. Kavanagh is a better offensive wrestler and much more likely to land takedowns. I do think Kavanagh can have mild wrestling success. However, I don’t think Kavanagh will easily hold Johnson down. Kavanagh will likely have to strike for stretches here.
On the feet, I think this is quite competitive. I think Kavanagh is faster and hits harder from a strike per strike basis. He is probably more likely to land a random knockdown. I think the power upside for Kavanagh is the main reason why I am going to pick him,
However, this is still really competitive on the feet. Johnson is tough and will likely fight for a hard 15 minutes. He is also longer than Kavanagh and I just think Johnson will generally fight hard and compete throughout. I am expecting a pretty competitive 29-28 type of decision here where I slightly lean Kavanagh based on mild grappling upside and power advantages.
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On DraftKings, I think Kavanagh has more upside of the two, but I’m not super excited to roster him at 8.8k.
In his two UFC wins, Kavanagh has scored 88 and 57 DK points, with the bigger score coming with four takedowns. Essentially, Kavanagh will need a finish to truly hit a ceiling, and that isn’t the most likely outcome here as the fight is -325 to go the distance.
The best case I can make for Kavanagh is that he’ll be a contrarian target. I don’t see the public chasing him with those two mediocre scores, and a matchup against Johnson who is historically very durable.
As one spot to be unique, I don’t hate Kavanagh who has some KD equity and some wrestling equity. It’s just difficult to recommend any real investment as the most likely outcome is probably another 80 point, competitive decision win.
Johnson at 7.4k has merit as a fighter who could win for cheap.
I still don’t love the matchup for him. While Johnson is taller and longer, Kavanagh isn’t easy to hit, and I don’t think Johnson will be accruing lots of points. So if he does win, I could easily see him landing 70-80 strikes and scoring 65 DK points.
For that reason, I don’t think I’ll be targeting Johnson this weekend. He’s +550 to win ITD and I don’t see much hope for upside, outside of a random KD.
He does have some win equity and I understand considering him at 7.4k, but it feels like a medium-risk, low-reward type of spot so I probably will prioritize many other options.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kavanagh by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Rongzhu vs. Austin Hubbard
Fight Odds: Rongzhu -258, Hubbard +215
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Rongzhu 9.1k, Hubbard 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I was actually pretty impressed with Rongzhu’s last performance where he battered Kody Steele for 15 minutes en route to a dominant decision win.
Rongzhu is a Chinese fighter who is 26-6 professionally and is only 25 years old.
Rongzhu had an initial run in the UFC where he went 1-2 in the UFC. He was outstruck pretty badly against Kazula Vargas and Ignacio Bahamondes and lost to both of them. He had one win against Brandon Jenkins who is terrible.
Rongzhu didn’t look great in his initial run and his striking looked poor. However, he was very young and just looked underdeveloped.
Rongzhu then had some regional fights and worked his way back to the UFC through the Road to UFC tournament. He won all of his Road to UFC fights and won the tournament to earn his way back to the UFC. He lost his first fight back in the UFC to Chris Padilla where he lost via doctor stoppage after his eye was shut from an elbow.
I do think Rongzhu looks a bit improved from his initial UFC run. His striking looks a little better now. He can wing some punches in close range and has some decent leg / calf kicks as well. He also looks to have a little power and did knock out one of his Road to UFC opponents. He is okay on the feet and thought he looked solid against Kody Steele.
I still just worry about him and he has never beaten a good fighter. The Padilla fight was concerning. I don’t even consider Padilla a good striker and Padilla was landing clean on Rongzhu. I just worry about Rongzhu’s defensive striking and he is defending strikes at a poor 50 percent.
As a grappler, Rongzhu looks okay defensively. He defends takedowns at 84 percent. He can sort of stop takedowns and scramble to his feet. He can mix in takedowns himself at times but I don’t think his actual offensive wrestling is all that great either. I doubt he can outgrapple any decent grapplers.
I am almost in a waiting phase with Rongzhu. I never thought he was very good and the Padilla fight was concerning. However, the Steele fight was solid and a bit unexpected from me. I think he can be in some decent action fights in this division.
Rongzhu will be taking on stubborn UFC veteran Austin Hubbard.
Hubbard is a bit of a generalist. He isn’t good at anything, but he isn’t particularly bad at anything either. He can strike a bit, he can grapple a bit, and he is pretty tough with decent cardio. He just isn’t great anywhere though and isn’t the best athlete either.
As a striker, Hubbard is just okay. He lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.82 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent. I don’t think he is fast or anything on the feet.
However, he does have okay boxing and is a very tough kid. He can just scrap a bit. I still don’t trust him standing either though as he has no plus skillset in his striking game.
I do think Hubbard is a decent offensive wrestler though. He lands 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t bad in top position. He landed four takedowns against Vinc Pichel and did win some fights on TUF with offensive wrestling. He is also a decent defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 68 percent and scrambles up decently.
I still just don’t trust Hubbard to ever run away in a fight in any particular area against anyone good. I think Hubbard is moreso made to beat underdeveloped fighters who have holes in their game. He just isn’t good enough to easily defeat developed fighters.
As far as this matchup goes, I am expecting a blue collar matchup that probably goes to decision. I do think favoring the home country fighter in Rongzhu is fair as he is probably more athletic with more talent and has a bit more power. He also may be improving. These guys will probably strike for the most part and I do favor Rongzhu a bit there.
I still don’t totally trust Rongzhu as a -250 favorite either though. Hubbard is honestly not bad and Rongzhu is two fights removed from getting his ass kicked by Chris Padilla. Hubbard just generally fights many guys very competitively. He rarely gets beaten badly unless he is just fighting a good opponent.
I totally could see Hubbard staying competitive on the feet and mixing in a takedown or two and making this a sweat. Hubbard is also very durable so he has a high floor in this matchup and will probably make it to the scorecards most of the time.
I still think Rongzhu is a more talented fighter with more power and more upside so I will pick him to win more power shots, get the crowd on his side, and get the decision win.
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On DraftKings, I’m not particularly excited by this matchup.
Rongzhu is priced up to 9.1k which is really expensive for what he’s been historically.
To be fair, he just scored 96 points in a decision win and his other tracked UFC win scored 146 points. But from a macro perspective, he’s not a lock to wrestle, and probably just needs a knockout to exceed value.
Now priced at 9.1k, he’s competing with Sterling, Zhang, Pereira, and others in this range, so it feels tough to prioritize him outright.
Plus, Hubbard has never been knocked down in the UFC and he’s never been knocked out as a pro. Rongzhu is +240 to win ITD here and the fight overall is -220 to go the distance.
So again, it’s tough to prioritize this guy. Hubbard will slow the pace down, wrestle a bit, and unless he gets clobbered, he’ll probably limit Ronzhu’s upside.
As a contrarian option, I can get behind Ronzhu a little bit. He can wrestle at times, he can throw a lot of strikes. If he can also find the finish, his upside is decent. It’s just not the most likely outcome.
I don’t hate Ronzhu as a place to be different but that’s what I’d qualify him as for this matchup, and I likely won’t end up with too much exposure myself.
Hubbard at 7.1k is a very mediocre play.
He’s a veteran, and he’s OK. He can wrestle a little bit, and fight for three rounds. He doesn’t have many quality wins though.
I like Hubbard OK from a floor standpoint. He’s projected to go the distance, and I think 1-3 takedowns are in play. Maybe he can just win the fight. He can also land 60-80 sig. strikes.
I just don’t think he’ll be very impactful and he’s coming off a split loss where he landed 26 sig. strikes. It’s just a very boring target here and the most likely outcome is he loses a decision. He also carries little finishing equity himself at +600 ITD.
He is cheap, though. And because he grapples in wins, he tends to score well. His tracked decision wins have scored 84, 96, and 93.
I’m OK with using Hubbard as a low-end secondary target. He saves a lot of salary and does have a path to victory. I wouldn’t expect him to be clearly winning though and he’s not particularly talented, so my exposure will still be limited.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rongzhu by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus
Fight Odds: Pereira -265, Daukaus +220
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 9.2k, Daukaus 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here between Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus.
Pereira is generally a striker. He lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.33 in return. Those metrics were actually really good until Anthony Hernandez ruined them recently, outlanding Pereira mostly on the ground 152-24 in significant strikes.
Pereira is very athletic and controls range well. He generally springs into distance to land his power strikes. He had won eight straight fights but then lost his most recent fights against Anthony Hernandez and Abus Magomedov.
I consider him an above-average striker for this weight class. I also consider his power decent as well, and he is capable of knocking opponents out at this level.
Pereira can also wrestle a bit and lands 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 76 percent. I consider him an alright wrestler although I question his ability to outwrestle decent grapplers.
Pereira is overall a fine fighter. I do think his eight fight win streak was a bit random as I don’t think he is that great of a fighter. I do respect his game to a degree.
Pereira does concern me though. He has slowed down terribly before which is concerning, especially against Tristan Connelly a few years back. He has paced himself much better since that fight though so his cardio has not come back to bite him much since. I still do think he is prone to slowing down though given his third round vs Niko Price where he looked a bit fatigued.
Also in Pereira’s matchup against Hernandez he was outlanded 152-24 in significant strikes, and taken down 10 times and broken with pace. That pace set by Hernandez was insane though and almost no one can fight at the pace of Hernandez. Hernandez attempted 29 takedown attempts which is just nuts. So I don’t blame Pereira much for that fight. However, you did see that Pereira can be taken down and taken advantage of on the mat. I think good grapplers can still have grappling success against Pereira even if they don’t push a crazy pace. His first layer takedown defense is pretty strong but tenacious grapplers can beat him.
Pereira will be taking on Kyle Daukaus who had an initial UFC run but lost to Eryk Anders back in 2022 and got cut. Since then, Daukaus has won four regional fights and is getting another shot in the UFC.
Kyle Daukaus is actually a decent fighter, but I have concerns with him. He is well-rounded and doesn’t have too many holes. I do worry about his athleticism / physicality though and it will definitely limit him. He is skilled though.
Daukaus lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.94 in return. Daukaus has skilled boxing and sharp hands. However, he does this weird thing where he will land good strikes in stretches at distance and then automatically crash to the clinch. I don’t know why he doesn’t continue to throw his hands in those moments. It may be a comfort thing. Maybe he doesn’t like being hit and doesn’t want to participate in extended exchanges. Just go watch his fights and I think you will see what I am talking about. The fight vs Stoltzfus really highlights this.
I am also a bit worried about Daukaus’ durability. He was knocked out and hurt numerous times in his UFC run. Those moments did generally come vs good competition though. I don’t know if he is a liability from a durability perspective or anything. However, I definitely do not consider it a strength of his.
Anyway, Daukaus likes to clinch up vs the cage and then separate and land short shots / dirty boxing along the fence. He kept doing this to Stoltzfus.
Daukaus also likes to land takedowns and use offensive grappling to land his offense. He lands 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a pretty good control game on top. He is a black belt in BJJ and had a lot of submissions on the regional scene. Daukaus has pretty good takedown defense as he defends takedowns at a solid 82 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Daukaus has a path to victory. I do think he is a solid grappler and defensive grappling has always been a concern of mine for Pereira. It honestly wouldn’t shock me much if Daukaus landed a takedown or two and had success in this fight.
The issue is Daukaus just isn’t a great takedown artist either and struggles with physical fighters. Pereira also has good first layer takedown defense and generally struggles with defensive grappling when a pace is pushed on him. Daukaus doesn’t set a big pace.
So I tend to think Pereira will minimize the grappling for the most part and get a striking fight where I do favor him. I could see Daukaus striking competitively at times and maybe clinching. However, I just think Pereira has a major durability advantage too and is way more likely to land by standing knockout. So Pereira is my pick.
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On DraftKings, this is a matchup I’m willing to take chances on because I do see potential for big scores on both sides.
Pereira will be boom or bust, and dependent on that early KO, which is always a concern at 9.2k. But he’s very capable of an early burst, and Daukaus has been knocked down in three of his four UFC losses.
Honestly, that’s the more important aspect to me – Daukaus can be hurt and finished. I think it’s difficult to trust Pereira currently, and he has major bust risk in an extended fight, but I do think Daukaus is a more vulnerable opponent than both of Pereira’s last two matchups.
Pereira is lined +105 to win ITD which is fine, but still not special for the price. He may also not be super chalky, priced in a strong range with two five-round options and other KO artists.
I wouldn’t label Pereira an outright priority at 9.2k. I do like Zhang and Sterling, and you can argue Pavlovich and Nuerjai have better shots at an early KO than Pereira. But he’s definitely in the mix, and if I need to roster someone within this lower 9k range, Pereira is a pretty solid upside option.
Daukaus at 7k may get some love this week and I think he’s likely a trap, but I’ll probably pull the trigger regardless.
In a past life I was a decent supporter of Daukaus, and I like his skills. He can wrestle, and his BJJ is solid. Pereira is also semi-vulnerable on the mat.
If Daukaus wins, he should smash. He should land multiple takedowns, earn lots of control, and potentially win by submission. He’s +400 to win ITD which is fine but nothing special.
There’s also some concern with Pereira having weaker confidence, coming off a drowning against Fluffy Hernandez, and then looking hesitant against Magomedov. And now flying across the world to China. Maybe Daukaus can take advantage of that with a newfound opportunity in the UFC.
I’m not at all confident in Daukaus and I’m not picking him to win, but there are binary elements to this matchup and I think Daukaus at least has a path to upside. I’m willing to use him as a secondary target at 7k, and he’s among my favorite cheap options on the board.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Yizha vs. Westin Wilson
Fight Odds: Yizha -1134, Wilson +732
Odds to end ITD: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Yizha 9.9k, Wilson 6.6k
Weight Class: 145
We have an ugly grappling matchup between Yizha and Westin Wilson, who are both extremely lucky to be holding a roster spot in 2025.
Yizha won the Road to the UFC in 2024 but got spanked by Gabriel Santos last September. He’s now 25-5 as a pro, with 14 wins coming by submission, and six more coming by knockout.
Frankly, Yizha is nothing more than a below-average grappler from my point of view. The majority of his submission wins are from his back, including two of his past three victories which he earned with armbars from the guard.
Unfortunately, his wrestling is pretty terrible, both offensively and defensively, which is why he’s often on his back. The good news is that he can shoot double digit takedown attempts, and he’s landed 5 and 6 takedowns in previous tracked fights.
However, he’s not a strong control grappler or dominant submission artist, which is why opponents are able to get back to their feet.
Furthermore, he defends takedowns at 54 percent, and he’s been taken down six times in a fight before. In his last seven fights, Yizha has actually been taken down by five different opponents.
On the feet, he’s mostly low volume and not a real knockout threat. He’s landing 2.83 sig. strikes per 15 minutes and absorbing 2.80 per minute with a 47 percent defensive rate.
At best, I would say Yizha can dominate weaker grapplers, but I’m not even sure that’s the case as he’s being taken down just as often as he lands takedowns. He’s a fine submission grappler, and he’s capable of fighting into the latter rounds, but he’s a really poor round winner.
My guess is that Yizha will have occasional, opportunistic with a submission, and that’s it. Otherwise, he can land 50 strikes in three rounds and hope it’s enough to earn a close decision.
He’s getting a softball matchup on paper next with Westin Wilson, who saved his career with a submission win over Jeka Saragih in June of 2024.
Wilson is now 17-9 professionally, at age 36, and he’s lost seven times inside the distance, including three by KO and four by submission.
Wilson also has 12 submission wins on his record and five knockouts, meaning 23 of his 24 fights have ended inside the distance.
Wilson is a BJJ brown belt, and that’s the area where he’s most likely to succeed. He is tall and long for this division, standing 6’1”, which can be a tricky frame to compete with on the mat.
But as we’ve seen in his short UFC career, length alone doesn’t mean much. Wilson dove on a leg lock and was met with big hands from Brito that put him unconscious. He then fought Jean Silva who knocked him out in round one as well.
I do consider Wilson a competent grappler in the sense that he’s aggressive and will at least attempt to submit you if you give him a limb or a neck. He has a bunch of wins by guillotine and I think that’s the main option for him. He’s also very willing to go for leg locks.
Still, Wilson doesn’t possess much of a wrestling game to back up his BJJ. He’ll get taken down mostly at will, and he’ll fail to get on top of any good opponent. At best, he’s just an opportunist on the mat and I don’t think that will carry him far.
On the feet, Wilson is aggressive, but a defensive liability. He uses a karate stance, and is aided by his length. He’s not really a capable distance fighter though, and he’s never won by decision.
At best, he can maybe pressure and hurt a lower-level opponent. More realistically, he’ll be on the wrong end of the big shots and will find himself hurt again.
Against Saragih, he actually did land an early takedown but couldn’t retain top control. Shortly thereafter Saragih got on top, and Wilson just locked up a triangle from his back.
The hilarious part of the matchup it seems is that whoever gets taken down may actually have the advantage, as both seem much more capable from the back than from top position.
Otherwise, I mean, this is a total shit show. Clearly Yizha can land takedowns, but I think Wilson is capable of landing them as well. Both are dangerous from the bottom, but Wilson has more concerning submission losses than Yizha, who does have one via heel hook.
On the feet, I guess I’d favor Yizha.. though I can’t say that with any confidence. He’s got more experience in extended fights and is probably more durable. Will 2.8 strikes per minute actually do anything for him though?
Wilson will also be six inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage, for what it’s worth.
My assumption is that this fight will end up on the mat pretty quickly. I think I favor Yizha over the duration more than Wilson, and given Wilson’s history, he’s in theory more dependent on an early sub.
I suppose Yizha can probably defend and win the more extended grappling exchanges, eventually leading to a finish? I just have zero confidence in exactly what this fight will look like.
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On DraftKings, Yizha is somehow -1200 to win and priced at 9.9k, which feels far more expensive than I’d like to pay.
At the same time, Wilson sucks and loses ITD a lot, so it does seem realistic for Yizha to finish if he wins at all. Plus, we know he’s capable of landing 5+ takedowns which gives him solid wrestling equity.
I do think there are worlds where Yizha smashes, but I’m really worried about this being a mess. In a “messy” fight, I’m not sure he needs 5+ takedowns, and I’m not sure he’s landing lots of strikes. It might just be a weird, early submission which would score well, but probably not well enough for 9.9k.
Given the price, I don’t think you can prioritize Yizha outright. He’s not processed enough for me to be confident he dominates here, and even if he hits his win condition of an early sub, there’s no guarantee that even scores 100 points.
He is -800 to win ITD though, plus there is wrestling upside, so I’m also not against playing Yizha. If I can afford him, I will consider it, and given those metrics, having exposure makes sense.
I personally would rather play Zhang at 9.4k and possibly Nuerjai at 9.3k as well, which will just make it difficult to reach heavy exposure with Yizha. But in the perfect circumstance, he could score lots of grappling points + an early finish to surpass 100 points and contend for the optimal.
Wilson at 6.6k is hard to justify much action on as a +767 underdog.
We know how he wins though, which is an early finish, and in his last victory, he did score 96 points. He shouldn’t be highly owned and he’ll carry leverage against Yizha. But he’s +767 to win..
It’s honestly not a horrible play from the standpoint of Wilson having competent submission grappling skills against a similar style of opponent. Plus, size advantages. But I can only label him a dart throw here and wouldn’t chase more than a sprinkle of exposure in larger fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yizha by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Xiao Long vs. SuYoung You
Fight Odds: You -125, Long +107
Odds to end ITD: +215
DraftKings Salaries: You 8.3k, Long 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Xiao Long is a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season where he dropped a decision to Christian Quinonez. Two year later, he got the call to the Road to UFC series where he made it to the finals but lost a split decision to Chang Ho Lee. He rebounded nicely though with a win over Quang Le back in November – he’s 27-9 as a pro. SuYoung You is a newer Korean talent to the UFC roster who’s made good on his first couple UFC fights after winning the Road to UFC finals – he’s 15-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Xiao comes from a Sanda background, but it doesn’t really show much in his fights.
Usually those fighters are rangier/footwork/kick based but Xiao falls more into the brawl-boxing category. He’ll still mix in kicks here and there, but his best work is really done on the inside with his hands.
However, he’s not very technical to where he doesn’t set up much of what he throws.
He is aggressive though where he’ll look to throw with intent, but hasn’t fancied as much of a knockout artist throughout his career with only five of his 27 pro wins coming via KO/TKO – although he is coming off putting out Quang Le with a nice right hand.
It’s in his more brawling nature that’s left him very susceptible and not particularly difficult to hit where he’s gotten busted up multiple recent fights.
He got the better of the striking in his last two Road to UFC fights which is ultimately what got him those nods but both guys were also base grapplers.
It was back on the Contender Series where he fought a longer, more adept striker in Quinonez where he struggled. The strike counts were actually close so it’s not as if Xiao didn’t have success, it was just the lengthy straight shots and movement of Quinonez that gave him the biggest issues. He got out landed to the head 59-26 and got hurt at a few different points in the fight.
Against Lee, both guys had lots of success in tight, but Lee got a bit better of the clinching exchanges, outlanding him there 66 to 42 – it was still a greasy fight though where you could have very well given Xiao the decision and I don’t think many people would have complained.
But he did fair better against Le last time out where he simply outdogged him.
Overall, Xiao’s a gritty/tough striker that’s going to bring it but he’s going to have to up his technical acumen and defense now fighting at a UFC level if he wants to have further longevity.
You comes from a grappling background but we have a lot of tape on him and have seen a healthy amount of striking in his fights as well.
He’s a shorter/stocky 135er that I would classify as serviceable on the feet.
He generally does the basics well in utilizing a jab and following up, but you don’t see many extended combos from him. As a result, he’s more pot shotty and his volume falls on the average to lower end of the spectrum.
You also hasn’t shown to be much of a power threat, having only three pro wins via KO/TKO (two of which came on the ground) but he has busted up a handful of opponents.
His mid-range style has suppressed volume generally well but he has had struggles with effective pressure in a handful of outings which was the ultimate catalyst in his last pro loss to Amangeldy back in 2023.
He’s been buckled in a handful of other fights as well but he’s shown to generally be a tough guy.
Overall, I don’t mind You’s standup for being a base grappler but it’s nothing that’s going to blow your hair back either.
How it plays out: Off the top, Xiao will realize a size advantage of 2” in height and 5” in reach. The striking is somewhat interesting as both guy’s styles are pretty diametrically opposed. You have the lower volume, more defensively minded guy in You versus the higher output, fight fire with fire type of guy in Xiao. So, I think the large question is can You suppress the volume of Xiao here whilst also being more effective. I personally side with no, more specifically due to Xiao’s last fight against Le who’s traditionally an outside based guy who will also slow the pace of his fights – Xiao ultimately landed 87 significant strikes and knocked him out – coupled with You’s last loss to Amangeldy. I could be wrong but I think Xiao’s aggressive style is going to present some bigger issues to You on the feet.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Xiao’s floor background but he’s definitely capable in this realm.
Our tape on him isn’t vast so in the fights I’ve seen, he hasn’t mounted much traditional wrestling success although it hasn’t been without effort.
He got shut out by Quinonez on DWCS going 0/6 and has fought base ground fighters in three of his last four fights.
He dropped the 1st round in both of his outings on Road to UFC, but his conventional TDD is pretty good having stuffed at 77% through his last five fights, despite conceding TDs in all five outings.
He can just get stuck against the fence or caught in sub attempts; he’s also had his back taken a handful of times.
However, I do rate his ability to defend attacks and his overall historics prove that as well as he’s never been submitted in 36 pro fights.
I’m more impressed with his ability to scramble as guys really struggle to solidify positions on him and that’s where he’s then able to mount some offense of his own or just work back up in general.
Xiao’s counter-wrestling and scrambling has been what’s gassed out his opponents.
Overall, the guy clearly knows what he’s doing in this realm as he’s faced 53 total TD attempts in his last five documented fights but it’s also that general pursuit from his opponents as to what’s made his last three decisions close.
As noted, You comes from a grappling background where he reps a black belt in BJJ.
He’s shown to be a decent wrestler as well, having landed 4, 8, 2 and 5 TDs in his last four consecutive fights.
I like his upper body TDs more than his traditional single/double legs as he’s been effective with trips and throws, so he has some judo elements to his game as well.
When on top, his control has been a bit all over the board as it’s been stronger in certain matchups but less effective in others.
I like his transitional game though as he’s got some really tricky attacks in terms of taking the back, and reps five submission wins as a pro – technically should be six but one fight was ruled a NC. With that said, he hasn’t finished his last four opponents and has carried some pretty bad fighters a full 15 minutes, so while I think his holistic ground game is good, I highly question his finishing ability at this level.
Defensively, he’s not immune to being taken down but has generally shown really good scrambling abilities to not accept bottom positions to either sweep, work up or re-wrestle back in.
I watched a healthy amount of tape on You and no opponent’s really been able to do anything meaningful to him on the ground – his last loss is officially via GNP but that was after he got hurt on the feet.
Overall, I generally like You’s ground game but he’ll probably service as a more effective wrestler in comparison to being an uber potent submission guy.
How it plays out: I’d ultimately give more upside to You here as he’s the better wrestler who also has better jiu-jitsu. But it’s a bit difficult to benchmark the amount of success You can have because as noted, Xiao’s a pretty capable TD defender and scrambler – although I would say that You’s one of the better ground guys he’s fought, who can also take back. Xiao’s submission defense is good though so I don’t think You’s finishing him at much of a rate. Nonetheless, You holds more floor upside.
Tricky fight between two guys I’m a low key fan of and what they bring to the table. So, I don’t have a strong opinion here but I do find myself leaning to the underdog in Xiao because I think he’ll produce more offense standing, has bigger moment upside and historically hasn’t been an easy guy to grapple for extended periods of time – as noted though, You’s one of the better ground guys he’s fought so that could change and ultimately why my opinion isn’t strong. I will pick Xiao for the win though.
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On DraftKings, this is a tricky one but it’s also one of the most underrated, highest level fights on the slate. I’m a big fan of both fighters.
You has been my preferred target throughout his short UFC career and I think that will continue into this matchup. He’s a high-quality wrestler and submission grappler, and his style is going to lead to DraftKings points.
With that said, he’s been unable to finish either of his first two UFC opponents which gives me concerns for the future. I’m not sure I can rate him as some elite sub grappling threat, as Luke noted, though he’s shown really quality control elements.
Because he has failed to finish, You has only scored 88 and 74 points in his first two matchups, despite landing five and two takedowns in those fights. Simply, he’s not a guarantee to put up an optimal score, even in a strong wrestling based win.
In this fight, I’m definitely nervous. Xiao is tough and may be harder to control. But what I do like is that Xiao pushes a pace, forces exchanges, and that should lead to a decent floor for either side.
If You can win, I expect multiple takedowns landed and many minutes of control time. With that could could ground strikes, and the potential to reach 90 points in a win. At 8.3k, You clearly has a shot to exceed value.
I am nervous his ceiling is capped without the finish, and he’s only +415 to win ITD in this fight, but 85-90 points would still give him hope at the price tag, and therefore I do rate him as a solid secondary option.
Xiao at 7.9k has a much worse matchup on paper, and I’m less interested in him by default.
However, one thing I noted prior to his last fight is that he lands a ton of strikes in close. So if he’s getting his way, even in a clinch war, he can rack up strikes and potentially exceed value.
My primary fear from a fantasy standpoint is that You is simply a better grappler. So I think Xiao is extremely capped on wrestling success, and he likely gets held down for periods of time too.
With a +415 ITD line, it’s hard to justify too much exposure to Xiao.
Still, if he wins, 1-2 takedowns could be involved. He hits hard, so maybe he could hurt You. Maybe a clinch war with control time and non-sig. strikes could still lead to 90 points as we nearly saw in his UFC debut.
I don’t hate Xiao. I respect him, and I think he’s a sneaky fantasy target generally. I am really worried You is the type of opponent to limit his success, but if he does win I’d like some exposure and so he too will fall into a secondary type category.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: You by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Uran Satybaldiev vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
Fight Odds: Satybaldiev -160, Nurgozhay +140
Odds to end ITD:
DraftKings Salaries: Satybaldiev 8.7k, Nurgozhay 7.5k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Diyar Nurgozhay’s a four-fight alum of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s promotion Eagle FC and earned a contract on this past season of Contender Series. He’ll be looking to rebound from a lackluster debut showing back in April – he’s 0-1 in the UFC and 10-1 as a pro. Uran Satybaldiev was slated to fight on the last season of Contender Series but had to pull out due to injury. But he defended his LFA title earlier this year where he then got a short notice call to debut up a weight class where he came up short – he’s 0-1 in the UFC and 9-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Nurgozhay’s official background but he has similar striking elements to many of his region in working a Euro coast style.
He stands southpaw and won’t be a volume machine but generally picks his shots well. He operates best with his left side with rear kicks to all three levels, and a solid straight left hand.
He’s shown power to boot with six of 10 pro wins coming via KO/TKO but even in the guys he hasn’t finished, he’s usually a step ahead on the feet as his mid-range striking style has suppressed volume well from past opponents.
He can get a bit flatter footed as his fights progress but is still generally evading well.
However, the length of Ribeiro gave him some issues in his debut where he was outlanded 28 to 16 at distance and also got dropped with a right hand – albeit he recovered quickly.
Overall, despite the lackluster debut, Nurgozhay is a respectable striker whose skills will translate to the UFC level, especially when you factor that 205 isn’t a deep division. But it’s also a style that can lead to tighter margins as well.
Satybaldiev’s a lanky 205er standing 6’4” with a 79” reach.
He’s primarily a wrestler but we’ve seen a healthy amount of his stand up as well.
He’s not a particularly high volume guy at distance and what he does is pretty basic between bursting 1-2’s into the pocket.
Although he does use his length well in extending out his shots where he’s shown some power components, with six of his nine pro wins coming via KO/TKO – although a handful of those are on the ground.
He’s a bit rigid so he’s not great defensively and can be backed up in straight lines but, he’s shown to be durable to date – although he’s gotten buckled in a few fights.
While his debut against Buday was under suboptimal circumstances where he showed some heart and toughness to also hurt Buday in round three – the overall performance was pretty lackluster as he was outlanded at distance 49-32 and only landed 25% of his shots.
Overall, Satybaldiev is serviceable on the feet with some power but I don’t overtly rate his striking game in totality.
How it plays out: Off the top, Satybaldiev will realize a size advantage of 2” in height and 5” in reach. I don’t have a passionate opinion here considering both guys aren’t very high volume, have some power and can be hurt themselves. There appears to be a bit more process with Nurgozhay’s stand up in my opinion and he serves as the more technical guy. After watching Satybaldiev against Buday, it leads me to believe Nurgozhay will have success here. On the flip side though, those long straight shots of Ribeiro gave Nurgozhay some issues in his debut where I think Satybaldiev can have similar success as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Nurgozhay is a striker first but he’s mixed TDs into the majority of his bouts.
I don’t think he’s some “powerhouse” wrestler but he’s capable and is physically strong at the weight class.
When on top from more conventional positions, he doesn’t load up on GNP necessarily but will be pepper from half guard to remain busy – if he hurt guys though, he’ll open up more.
His control components have generally been good as well to accrue minutes. He has two wins via submission with one being a kimura which he used to reverse from bottom and the other being a leg lock. He’s taken the back in another fight but lost the position.
Defensively, he can be taken down but is a guy that doesn’t accept being there as he’ll attack submissions as referenced or look to get a hip and re-wrestle.
However, he’s coming off getting kimura’d by Ribeiro from top position which is a pretty bearish look – we hadn’t seen his submission defense tested much prior so I have some larger concerns in that department going forward.
Overall, Nurgozhay is a decent ground fighter that can wrestle a bit, which should give him advantages over many lower tier light heavyweights but may be a defensive grappling liability.
I’m unsure of Satybaldiev’s official background but he’s definitely profiled as more a wrestler to date through his shorter career.
His open mat wrestling isn’t anything special but he does excel in securing TDs against the fence to dump guys with doubles or land the occasional upper body TD/throw.
When on top, his control has generally been good but not great. He’s been more aggressive with GNP in certain outings but also been more lay and pray in others that has forced some ref stand ups.
He scored a kimura in his last LFA win but he hasn’t shown to be much of a submission threat overall and is more of a grinder.
Defensively, he’s had some struggles though as he was getting outwrestled through the early portions of his fight with Assis and also got stuck in some submission attempts – but he did persevere and ultimately got on top late to finish the fight himself. He also gave up some ground time in his fight with Soares despite winning via submission there.
Overall, Satybaldiev isn’t Jordan Burroughs or anything but he does have a grinding/taxing style at 205 that should prove some efficacy at the UFC level – he may run into issues when facing more competent ground fighters though who can also scramble.
How it plays out: The ground also seems somewhat variable. I do feel Satybaldiev is the better wrestler of the two who probably also has the better cardio in the matchup. It’s also kind of hard to ignore Satybaldiev coming off a kimura win in his last W and Nurgozhay losing via kimura last time out as well. On the flip side though, Nurgozhay should be the physically stronger guy and we’ve seen Satybaldiev give away rounds on the bottom.
This is a tricky fight to analyze not only conventionally but given both guys debuts – Nurgozhay missed weight by 4.5lbs so that could have an impact on his performance and then Satybaldiev came in on short notice, up a weight class. I did a healthy amount of tape on this one and came away scratching my head a bit because you can sell me on the striking and wrestling upside for both guys. I lean towards Satybaldiev because I think he’s got a bit more dog in him and I trust him a bit more in an extended situation but it’s not a super low confidence pick.
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On DraftKings, I do lean toward Satybaldiev as well but I’m not particularly excited to play him at 8.7k.
I do think the matchup profiles to be competitive. Satybaldiev has some wrestling equity, and some knockout equity. I thought Nurgozhay looked like a decent fighter prior to his UFC debut though and he’s skillful in both areas.
While it’s possible Satybaldiev can land takedowns, he probably needs a finish to be optimal and most likely a knockout. Nurgozhay just got dropped by Ribeiro in his last fight, and I expect Satybaldiev’s ITD line to be pretty mediocre (it’s not released yet).
I’m simply not passionate here. I like some elements of Satybaldiev’s game but I don’t think he’s worthy of a big investment and I don’t particularly trust him to win ITD, let alone win at all.
With his betting line falling, I’m expecting Satybaldiev to be the leverage side of the matchup which throws another wrench into the analysis. As a secondary/leverage mix-in, I can get behind some of Satybaldiev and I don’t want to let this fight kill me to start the night.
Nurgozhay at 7.5k may honestly be preferred, given the discount. And his betting line continues to rise, to where he’s now only +122, making him one of the better values on the slate.
He too could land takedowns, and he has some solid boxing. I don’t think he’s particularly likely to knock Satybaldiev out though. Perhaps he can land takedowns and win with top control.
He will carry some finishing equity as well, but not a ton.
I don’t mind Nurgozhay as a secondary/value target because this is a relatively low-level LHW fight and he should be competitive. If he picks up any kind of win, I’d probably want some exposure.
Ultimately, this feels like a “don’t kill me” type of fight and that’s how I’d lean toward playing it, coming in near the field with a mix of both sides. Though if I had to choose, I’d lean toward the savings in Nurgozhay.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Satybaldiev by Decision (Confidence=Low)