Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
Fight Odds: Topuria -246, Holloway +205
Odds to Finish: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Topuria 8.8k, Holloway 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
One of the more anticipated title fights of the year, Ilia Topuria will have the opportunity to cement his featherweight title on Saturday against the legend Max Holloway.
Topuria has still never lost. He’s now 15-0 professionally and is coming off a brutal knockout victory against the former champion Alexander Volkanovski in February.
We saw a competitive first round in that contest where Volkanovski edged Topuria out on the numbers, but nothing dramatic happened in either corner. Topuria continued to pressure, and box, and he was able to catch Volkanovski with his back against the cage in the second round where he lunged in and melted the champ.
It was a truly impressive finish, and one that will be shown as a highlight for ages. That also marks the fourth KO Topuria has earned since he debuted in the UFC, and he’s also recorded a submission win along the way.
While knockouts are exciting, I probably care more about Topuria’s five-round win over Josh Emmett in 2023. In that fight, Topuria was able to land 152 significant strikes and three takedowns over 25 minutes, cruising to a lopsided decision.
Prior to that bout, I was largely unsure if Topuria had the gas tank to be able to produce offense for 25 minutes. We had seen him gas a bit in his UFC debut, but he looked fairly comfortable against Emmett for all five rounds. It simply gives him an additional, and extremely important path to victory which is what’s typically necessary to get past the elite competition in this division.
Otherwise, Topuria is a very skilled boxer. He has fast hands, and knockout power. His striking rate has been mediocre outside of the Emmett bout, but he still lands 4.40 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.35 per minute.
Topuria can also wrestle and grapple where he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He currently lands 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes but it hasn’t been a primary method of victory for him outside of his UFC debut where he landed five takedowns.
Since then, Topuria has only landed four total takedowns in six fights. His offensive grappling is still a strong point but I think his primary path to victory will be with his hands.
To me, this is still a massive test against Max Holloway, and one I am far from certain Topuria will pass.
Truthfully, Holloway is one of my favorite fighters of all-time. I’ve bet on him successfully many times, and I definitely have a bias toward him in this matchup. I definitely want Holloway to win.
But from a projection standpoint, Holloway is arguably one of the toughest matchups of all-time, and so there’s rarely been a point where I’m confident any fighter will easily take him out.
That includes Holloway’s last fight, where he was a surprising underdog to Justin Gaethje. Despite stepping up to 155 pounds, Holloway got the better of Gaethje for five rounds and knocked him out cold at the end of the fight, which was probably the craziest moment I’ve ever seen in MMA (outside of Conor vs. Aldo).
Holloway now sits at 7.17 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 4.72 per minute. He’s had some of the most absurd volume performances of all-time, landing 445 sig. strikes in five rounds against Kattar, and 290 sig. strikes against Ortega in four rounds.
This level of volume upside just can’t be matched by most fighters in the history of the sport, and that includes someone like Topuria.
Furthermore, Holloway is also one of the most durable fighters we’ve ever seen. He’s fought 29 times in the UFC and never been knocked down, let alone knocked out.
Yes, he’s taken damage and sure, knockdowns aren’t the easiest thing to score. For example, Gaethje did “knock him down” briefly in that last fight, but it was minor and Holloway bounced back up immediately, so it wasn’t counted as an official KD.
It’s also tough because in theory, the more Holloway fights, the better chance there is of him eventually getting KOd. It probably will happen some time. And it could happen here.
But Holloway has fought the best of the best for nearly 100 rounds in the Octagon, and he’s never been knocked out or knocked down officially.
So when I look at this matchup, how am I going to come to the conclusion that Topuria easily beats Holloway at a high percentage? That’s what the market is indicating is true, as Topuria is pushing -250 on some books.
I definitely give Topuria a chance. He has legit hand speed, and he has power in his hands. Most likely, he’ll land a bunch of strikes and perhaps those landed could horribly damage Holloway.
But percentage wise, I don’t think Topuria is knocking Holloway out 70% of the time. I don’t think he knocks Holloway out 50% of the time. If I had to guess, Topuria’s odds of knocking Holloway out are pretty low, just based on history.
If we want to be fair, Topuria has been hurt far worse in the UFC than Holloway ever has. Let’s not forget when Topuria attempted to move up after he couldn’t make weight, he fought Jai Herbert and was nearly KOd in the first round. To his credit, he came back to win, but Topuria has already been dropped once in 16 rounds.
My guess is that Holloway’s durability is significantly better than Topuria’s. Holloway doesn’t hit as hard so I don’t think his chances to put Topuria out are overwhelming, but I also don’t consider Topuria a wide favorite in that category.
The other option, really, is a decision. That seems much more doable but that’s not an easy task. Volkanovski was able to do it a few times and Dustin Poirier had a competitive fight with Holloway too, but that’s really it.
Holloway lost a couple times in 2013 to McGregor and Bermudez who wrestled, so perhaps Topuria has a path there too. I think it’s possible Topuria could land takedowns.
Holloway defends at 84 percent though and he’s drastically improved his grappling since 2013. Wrestling is also a path for Topuria to use energy and tire, which I think could put him in danger.
And so if these two are just going to box, Topuria can win but he’ll have to fight through fire.
Jai Herbert, Bryce Mitchell and most recently Alexander Volkanovski all outlanded Topuria at distance. Holloway throws so much volume round after round that it’s almost impossible to get to a projection where Topuria easily clears him. Maybe numbers will be close, but I think there’s a better chance of Holloway outlanding Topuria than vice versa.
And so if Holloway is staying competitive on the numbers or outlanding Topuria over five rounds, and he’s not getting horribly hurt, it’s hard to come away with a projection of Topuria winning this fight at an extreme rate.
The best, most fair, unbiased prediction I can make is that Topuria is skilled enough as a boxer to hopefully stay competitive with Holloway for a while. If he can land some big shots that hurt Holloway, that will be the difference maker. If not, I think he probably just loses more rounds because Holloway will be there firing off punches more consistently.
I wouldn’t actually be shocked if these two fought tentatively in the early going though. Holloway will be concerned about Topuria’s power to a degree, and Topuria kind of likes to pressure and counter.
Eventually, they’ll probably throw down and go to war. I just haven’t seen Topuria face adversity to this level over an extended period and I’ve seen Max do it a dozen times. Topuria may have the goods and the youth to overcome it all, but we’ll see.
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On DraftKings, this should be an extremely popular fight and surely rates out as one of the top overall matchups on the slate.
Topuria is priced at 8.8k and has scored 94, 126, 101, 100, 100 and 112 in his last six wins. The difficulty in this assessment is that his floor on paper is incredibly high in a win, in a matchup with Holloway.
In order to beat him, Topuria will need to produce a ton of offense, put Holloway out and/or grapple. It could very likely go five rounds and that would probably be the best case scenario for Topuria to reach a ceiling.
As a counter, in most of Topuria’s best performances that did not go five rounds, his top-end ceiling has been questionable. Obviously 100 points or 94 points would be a good score, but there are some questions as to whether it would be optimal on a big slate with multiple five-rounders.
Topuria just isn’t a high-volume producer typically, and there’s no guarantee of grappling. There’s no guarantee of winning by KO. He’s -105 to win ITD which is actually strong but I don’t buy that it is the true percentage.
I just worry slightly that if Chimaev wins, Chimaev will outscore Topuria. And then it could be a question as to whether Topuria gets outscored by one or two others in the top end which could maybe push him off the optimal.
Ultimately, Topuria’s floor in a win in this particular matchup is great and he’s still a fantastic target at 8.8k, whom I expect will be among the more popular fighters on the slate.
Holloway at 7.4k could be extremely popular as well, and potentially more popular than Topuria. He was 45% owned against Gaethje in his last matchup at 7.4k and scored 122 points.
The fight isn’t projected to last a full 25 minutes, but in a loss, it’s still plausible that Holloway could score 50 or more points. There are six fighters priced below Holloway but most of them are sizable dogs, and most should lose.
So there’s a reasonable chance that if Holloway loses, he’s still amongst the best options at his salary. I also think he can win and I think he has a better chance to win than his odds indicate.
In a win, Holloway would surely exceed 100 points and contend for the optimal. He has one of the highest ceilings on the slate as well and has topped 150 DK points several times. He’s only +450 to win ITD here but I don’t think it matters much as a decision could score just as well as an early KO or better.
Really, the biggest issue for targeting Holloway is the ownership + the large number of fights on the slate.
Even if Holloway loses and scores 50-60, and beats everyone else in the bottom tier, we have Whittaker priced right next to him in another five-rounder. Any sort of win in that mid 7k range would be enough to kick Holloway out of the optimal.
For him to really make an impact in a loss, we’d need to see nearly all dogs below 7.8k lose, and that’s tricky. And because he’s a near +200 underdog, you can take the route that it’s simply worth playing other fighters with more win equity or easier matchups.
Holloway is not a must in tournaments for that reason.
I still like him a lot, and I like him a lot for salary savings. He’s an easy play for me in cash games and smaller fields where the optimal is less mandatory. He’ll be a strong target and a popular target in large fields as well but there’s more merit to pivoting away to lower owned options nearby in those formats.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holloway by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Fight Odds: Chimaev -238, Whittaker +199
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Chimaev 8.7k, Whittaker 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
One year removed from his win over Kamaru Usman, Khamzat Chimaev will step into the Octagon for his first scheduled five-round contest against Robert Whittaker.
I was really disappointed to hear that Usman turned down the five round opportunity with Chimaev last year, despite Usman coming in on short notice for that bout. Chimaev has proven to be an elite, aggressive pace-grappler and nearly all of his success has come early in fights.
Against Usman, despite a strong first round, Chimaev slowed and arguably lost the final two rounds. And it seemed fairly clear in those final moments that Usman was the fresher man of the two.
Now Chimaev will face the former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, who has thrived in these kinds of positions before.
It’s interesting because on paper, this is the type of opponent who Whittaker has excelled against. Whittaker’s style is largely built on defending takedowns, and using his superior cardio and kickboxing to win.
Jacare Souza, Yoel Romero and Derek Brunson all found out the hard way.
Whittaker has been through five-round wars with Romero, and Adesanya, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he can last a full 25 minutes. I am honestly not sure if Chimaev can.
I also know that Whittaker has a very well-rounded game that’s developed over the years. He lands 4.58 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.44 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He isn’t the highest volume striker but can strike competitively with just about anyone.
As a wrestler, Whittaker only lands 0.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he defends at 82 percent. He’s actually landed four takedowns in two of his last six fights, so his offensive wrestling has been a new path to victory for him.
The defense is what’s better though as he can sprawl and scramble up when necessary.
All in all, Whittaker is built to last. He will need to neutralize Chimaev’s wrestling attack, survive, and extend this fight. If he can do that, he can certainly win.
My primary hesitations with Whittaker are his age, durability and recent form. He’s just been in so many wars and he’s suffered a few terrible injuries. He doesn’t fully look the same as in his prime and he could leave the sport whenever he wants.
He’s also been knocked down in two of his last five fights.
And specifically, the bout with Du Plessis in 2023 concerns me. Whittaker had the clinch there and DDP tried to throw him, and sort of fell on top of him. From there DDP was able to maintain top position, and land a bunch of hard ground-and-pound.
It wasn’t a great look from Whittaker and he was TKOd on the feet in the round after. I just worry that Chimaev will be able to get on top of him too easily in the first round, and Whittaker may not survive it.
It’s also just tough to go out on a limb and pick Whittaker because he will likely be on defensive mode for the first two or three rounds. Again, to me this is about surviving. Whittaker is not going in here trying to fight at a super high pace. He will need to defend, scramble, and push Chimaev once Chimaev gets tired.
Chimaev getting on top of Usman is a pretty big feather in his cap, and despite the great TDD on paper for Whittaker, I think Chimaev’s wrestling is good enough to get him down. So I ultimately just worry that Chimaev is going to bank multiple rounds to start the fight, and he may very well find a submission or hurt Whittaker enough to change the dynamics.
I also feel somewhat confident that Whittaker has superior cardio and can come back to win if he can survive. Chimaev doesn’t really have striking defense. I noted that after he fought Gilbert Burns who was able to land 119 sig. strikes on him over three rounds, while Burns had previously been a wildly inefficient striker for the majority of his career.
Chimaev currently defends strikes at 42 percent which is awful and he was shooting takedowns from a mile away on Usman late in their last fight. Again, if that’s Whittaker, and there’s still two more rounds to go, I think there’s a decent chance Whittaker just turns up the heat and knocks Chimaev out.
It should be an exciting fight overall but that’s the general and obvious dynamic I see. I suppose I will cautiously pick Chimaev who should be in the lead to start, but I am highly skeptical how long he can last striking with Whittaker and I’m hopeful we’ll get to see him pushed in the championship rounds.
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On DraftKings, Chimaev will rate out as one of the top overall plays on the slate at 8.7k.
He has scored 92, 104, 101, 117, 127, 122 and 124 in his wins on DK and the most recent one came in a three-round decision.
Over five rounds, Chimaev’s floor is just so high in a win. Especially as he clearly has the wrestling edge and should need to wrestle to win, I just don’t see how he will fail to produce points in a victory.
Especially priced at 8.7k, that number is too cheap for a five-round favorite who can grapple. And Chimaev is also -150 to win ITD which is one of the best finishing marks on the slate.
I expect that Chimaev will be among the highest owned fighters on this slate all things considered, and I’d like a heavy dose of exposure to him. He’s arguably the best option of all four championship fighters just due to his style.
Of course, playing Chimaev with another fighter in the main event will be highly duplicated, so I’d attempt to be unique elsewhere. But Chimaev’s chances of exceeding value and contending for the optimal in a win at this price are very strong.
Whittaker at 7.5k presents a leverage opportunity.
My hesitation on the DK side is that he could be forced to defend takedowns early, and he could be held down for a while. We may see him go a full 10 minutes and survive without scoring many points.
From there, a 3rd round KO as an example may not get Whittaker to 90 points. That’s my biggest worry. A late, come from behind win where he doesn’t land a ton of strikes, doesn’t wrestle, and fails to reach a ceiling.
It’s still worth an investment due to the leverage on Chimaev, and he’ll rate out fine overall with a +260 ITD line. His floor is just extremely low and I don’t think his chances of winning by KO quickly are very high.
I like Whittaker as a strong secondary/leverage target on this slate and he’ll definitely be mixed into my portfolio. But I definitely fear his scoring potential early in the fight and that will cap my exposure to a degree.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chimaev by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Fight Odds: Ankalaev -406, Rakic +315
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Ankalaev 9.4k, Rakic 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Top Russian light heavyweight, Magomed Ankalaev, will be in for an interesting test against Aleksandar Rakic on Saturday night.
Ankalaev is a good fighter and there are not many holes in his game. He is good at everything and very skilled. It wouldn’t shock me if he eventually won the belt and he will have a legitimate argument for a title shot if he impressively beats Rakic this weekend.
Ankalaev is a skilled striker. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.25 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 59 percent. He is a vicious and quick counter striker with ruthless power in his hands, and can absolutely put fighters away if they enter the pocket.
Ankalaev is also a good wrestler. He lands 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at a fantastic 86 percent. He has ruthless ground-and-pound and good control from top position.
Although Ankalaev is very good, I do have some concerns for his game. I mostly just wish that he had more offensive output from a striking and wrestling perspective. He is only landing 3.64 significant strikes per minute and landing 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. That is not a ton of offense in general. It is not awful, but it isn’t great either, especially for a potential title challenger.
You can still make the argument that because Ankalaev is so good defensively and is barely ever getting hit with strikes or taken down, his offense is good enough. That is fair and his offense will certainly be enough to beat most of the division. However, Ankalaev was outlanded at distance 45-29 by Krylov. So it does show that as Ankalaev gets steps up in competition, he could potentially be out worked.
I still think that he is so good defensively that he will never really be dominated by anyone, but I could see him just dropping competitive decisions due to a lack of offensive activity. It is just something to keep in mind. He also has shown susceptibility to leg kicks before.
Ankalaev will be taking on Aleksandar Rakic who is coming off a knockout loss to Jiri Prochazka. Rakic is actually a decent fighter.
I mostly consider Rakic a striker. He lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.80 in return. I consider him an athletic and somewhat technical striker. He is also capable of spamming leg kicks as well when needed. I do think his striking has looked a bit underwhelming lately though and he was actually outlanded by Thiago Santos at range 35-29. Still, he is capable on the feet and does carry mild to moderate power as well.
Rakic is also a semi-capable offensive grappler. He only lands 0.76 takedowns per 15 minutes but has gone to a wrestling path to victory against guys like Anthony Smith. I still think he is a bit too reliant on his athleticism as a grappler though as a lot of his explosive actions won’t work against skilled grapplers. You can almost say the same thing about his striking too.
Rakic actually defends takedowns at 85 percent, and I do think he is a decent defensive grappler. However, he just hasn’t faced many wrestlers. The last time we saw him surrender takedowns was against Francimar Barroso way back in 2017. He faced Devin Clark and defended all of his takedowns, but I don’t love Clark all that much as a wrestler. So the defensive grappling of Rakic is a bit of a question mark. Honestly, my guess is that Rakic has pretty good TDD but I am hesitant to trust it against really good wrestlers.
Overall though, Rakic is fine as a fighter. He can strike and grapple a bit. He also has okay power and is an athletic dude.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Ankalaev because he is a more well-rounded fighter with more paths to victory, and I generally think he is better than Rakic everywhere.
On the feet, I do think Ankalaev is a more technical striker with better punching and counter striking in the pocket. I also think Ankalaev is more powerful than Rakic. The issue is Ankalaev’s volume and susceptibility to leg kicks though. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Rakic competed solely due to Ankalaev’s lack of activity. Rakic is also capable of landing leg kicks too. I still favor Ankalaev standing, but it is possible this turns out to be competitive.
I do think Ankalaev is a more proven wrestler. However, Ankalaev doesn’t always wrestle enough and Rakic has never even really been outwrestled in a fight either. There is a chance Ankalaev can’t rinse and repeat the wrestling and gets stuck in a competitive striking fight. So this line may be a bit too wide.
I feel like I am speculating a bit here. I do really respect Ankalaev as a fighter. He may go out there and just be way better than Rakic everywhere and win easily. So I am going to pick him to win and do expect him to win. However, I think his overall lack of offense still makes me a bit nervous that Rakic can stylistically compete a little more than the line indicates.
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On DraftKings, I honestly don’t love this fight and I’m pretty nervous about the pacing.
Ankalaev is not the most aggressive fighter in the world, and he doesn’t grapple with any urgency. Rakic is a notoriously slow-paced striker as well, and it has the makings for both fighters to be cautious early.
Priced at 9.4k, I just really worry about Ankalaev underperforming. Given the state of the slate with multiple championship options priced below him, we already may not need to pay up this high.
But in a best case scenario, if Ankalaev is only going to win by RD 1 KO and score 100-110, I’m still not sure it’s enough. Officially he has put up 119 twice when he KOd Cutelaba in round one both times. But otherwise, Ankalaev has not topped 105 in eight other wins.
And if this fight hits round two, as we saw in Ankalaev’s last win, he’s going to fail to reach 100 points.
This fight is also -170 to go the distance which is awful for this type of matchup. Ankalaev is only +185 to win ITD.
My guess is that because of the strength of the slate, he won’t be super popular. But I just don’t love paying this kind of price for a slower paced, boom or bust type. He is viable in theory, and honestly works OK as a pivot within this range, but in reality I won’t be paying up for him often.
Rakic at 6.8k is viable in the sense of a random LHW knockout, but I don’t love him either because it’s a tough matchup.
And Rakic fights at a super slow pace too. He’s scored well before but he has multiple decision wins in the UFC that have failed to reach 60 DK points.
He’s now a big dog, and he’s +600 to win ITD with no real grappling equity. Ankalaev has been knocked down before and he was famously subbed in the final second of his fight against Paul Craig, so there are outs.
Still, Rakic will be a very low priority for me this week and is essentially just a dart throw where you’re hoping for big-man variance.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ankalaev by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige
Fight Odds: Murphy -286, Ige +234
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Murphy 8.9k, Ige 7.3k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have two guys coming off memorable performances here in Lerone Murphy and Dan Ige. Murphy just put on his career best performance in a decision main event win against Edson Barboza, while Ige just gave Diego Lopes everything that he could handle on four hours notice.
Murphy seriously looked awesome against Edson Barboza. He outlanded Barboza 220-79 in significant strikes and almost all of those strikes landed by both men were at distance. It was a great volume performance by Murphy. Murphy also outlanded Babroza to the head 172-38 which is just crazy.
That performance by Murphy was a bit of a surprise to me. Murphy has landed 93 significant strikes in three rounds before so he never had awful volume or anything, but it was a bit of a surprise for me and it impressed me.
Murphy is mostly a striker. He lands 5.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.60 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 60 percent and his head strike numbers are good. He has good straight punches which are his bread and butter. He can also mix in kicks and occasional diverse strikes like elbows. He also has some decent power, and he is obviously capable of fighting at a high pace.
Murphy is also a competent grappler. He lands 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of taking down and holding opponents down here and there. He only defends takedowns at 46 percent, but he is very physical and capable of scrambling up. I don’t consider him a good or great grappler. However, he is functional and very physically strong. I do think good grapplers will have success against him though and we have seen that in some of his competitive fights.
Overall though, Murphy is a solid fighter. He is a good striker, athletic, and physical and can generally compete in all areas. I also consider him durable as well.
Speaking of durable, Murphy will be taking on Dan Ige. Ige is seriously one of the most durable fighters in the sport and has never been finished in 26 professional fights, fighting great competition. It was cool seeing him fight admirably on short notice against Diego Lopes in his last fight as well and he would have probably won that fight had it been five rounds.
Coming from a grappling background, Ige actually preferred to grapple early in his UFC career. He landed 4, 1, 1, and 3 takedowns in his first four UFC fights.
However, he seems to be more interested in striking these days. He only lands 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes now and has only landed two takedowns in his last 29 UFC rounds. I do think he can land takedowns here and there, especially vs bad grapplers. However, I don’t have a ton of faith in his takedowns against above-average competition.
Ige really likes to strike now. He lands 3.70 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.51 in return. Those are decent metrics given the competition Ige has fought. He has constantly fought killers. Ige has some decent brawling oriented boxing and has some solid power in the pocket. He has a couple of knockouts in the UFC, and I do think he is moderately dangerous. Ige is just a blue collar tough dude who can generally compete in all areas.
I do have to pick Murphy in this matchup though. Seeing Murphy just dominate the numbers on Barboza like that is better than anything Ige has ever done. These guys will probably generally strike, and I think Murphy is going to be at a speed and athleticism advantage. Murphy is also a couple of inches bigger than Ige and seems like a more physical guy.
I do think Ige is dangerous and perhaps he can catch Murphy. I also do think Ige is good enough to make stretches of the striking competitive. However, Murphy is coming off a really impressive volume performance and just has some athletic and physical advantages that will probably allow him to get ahead on the striking numbers. My guess is these guys strike in a fun fight for 15 minutes where Murphy gets the nod.
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On DraftKings, I’m not exceptionally interested in this fight due to the strength of the card as a whole.
Murphy is coming off a very impressive win but at 8.9k in a three-round fight, his chances of finding the optimal will be tougher. Dan Ige is a very durable fighter and Murphy is only +450 to win ITD which is a major concern.
Also, Ige is likely the superior submission grappler so even if Murphy has some wrestling equity, it’s not much. Perhaps I could see a few takedowns landed for Murphy as an upside case, but he may not prioritize wrestling in this matchup and I definitely would not expect him to earn much control.
Murphy scored 81, 82 and 60 in wins prior to his most recent 155 and 98 scores, and I think that’s a much more realistic version of what to expect. My hope would be that the recent scores drive his ownership a bit higher than it should be based on this matchup, but ultimately, I will aim to be light on Murphy this week due to ceiling questions.
Ige is priced at 7.3k and honestly could be preferred, though I don’t love him.
The thing with Ige is that he has some KO upside within his style, and submission grappling upside. But knocking out Murphy is a stretch, and Ige barely wrestles so it’s hard to factor that in.
Murphy has been taken down a bunch before so it wouldn’t be crazy to see Ige on top of him, but Ige has failed to land more than one takedown in any of his past 14 fights. So he won’t rate out well from a projection standpoint.
Ige is also only +500 to win ITD which is still better than Murphy’s but it’s not a great mark overall.
I don’t mind a sprinkle of Ige because he shouldn’t be too popular, and will be a clear pivot play from the championship underdogs at 7.3k. At least he has upside in his style. But this does not feel like a great matchup for him to score many points, and I’d only use him as a low-end secondary target this week to be different.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Murphy by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan
Fight Odds: Magomedov -152, Petrosyan +132
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Magomedov 8.6k, Petrosyan 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a striker’s delight here as the dangerous Shara Magomedov will take on another skilled kickboxer in Armen Petrosyan.
Shara Magomedov has become a bit of a fan favorite as he has a unique look and something going on with his eye. Magomedov is now 3-0 in the UFC and 14-0 professionally, with his most recent win being a clear decision win over Michal Oleksiejczuk.
Magomedov is a striker through and through, and more specifically a damaging striker. He has some powerful and damaging strikes and he is very effective overall. His bread and butter are his kicks, and he can throw a variety of them including standard kicks, question mark kicks, and axe kicks. He has great leg dexterity and truly is dangerous with his strikes. He has great body work with his kicks as well.
In the UFC, Magomedov is landing 6.88 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.72 in return.
I do question the defense of Magomedov though. Statistically he only defends strikes at 41 percent, and I do think there are openings there for his opponents to land. He is also not a great grappler. He does not land takedowns himself and we have seen him taken down six times by non wrestlers and controlled to a degree.
His tdd isn’t awful at 71 percent and he does give his opponents issues by damaging them from his back. However, he will surely get exposed by a good grappler at some point.
Still though, Magomedov is offensively dangerous with his strikes and he will win plenty of UFC fights with his kickboxing at this level.
Magomedov will be taking on fellow kickboxer Armen Petrosyan. Petrosyan is basically a kickboxer. I consider him a skilled one actually. He has some good striking oriented wins in the UFC against Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues. He lands 5.69 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.90 in return. He is a pretty good striker and has a nice mix of kicks and punches. He controls range very well and defends strikes at a respectable 56 percent.
I overall really respect Petrosyan as a striker. He outlanded Rodrigues 127-61 in significant strikes at distance and outlanded Christian Leroy Duncan 89-59 in significant strikes at distance. Those are very good box scores against two solid opponents.
Petrosyan is also mildly powerful and has several knockouts in his career. I consider him capable of knockouts at this level. I also think his cardio is pretty strong. He can fight for a hard 15 minutes.
Petrosyan has been rocked though. He was actually knocked out in round one on the regionals, and Gregory Rodrigues hurt him a couple of times as well.
We have also seen Petrosyan outgrappled in the UFC and that will be an issue for him going forward in general.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually do think if anyone gets takedowns, it would be Petrosyan, but I doubt it will be a deciding factor on who wins the fight.
I think these guys will strike, which should be a lot of fun. This looks really competitive to me and I went back and forth on a pick.
I think Petrosyan has an advantage with defense and range controlling. I think he is traditionally a bit more technical than Magomedov and may be the one getting ahead on the strike count. I think Magomedov’s defense is suspect, so surely Petrosyan can land here and may just get ahead on the numbers and win this fight by being the superior defensive fighter.
However, Magomedov probably has an advantage with damage and effective striking. We have seen Petrosyan knocked out before and hurt as well. I do think Magomedov is a more damaging striker on a strike per strike basis and the judges have been obsessed with damage lately. He may be more likely to knock Petrosyan out or hurt him as well. So honestly, if you want to lean Magomedov for damage upside, I think that is reasonable too.
This is a close one man. I think these guys will strike competitively and we have the better defensive fighter in Petrosyan going against the damaging striker in Magomedov. I will go with the latter here, but both guys are fully capable of winning this fight.
—
On DraftKings, this is definitely a fun fight but it’s not one I’m certain will end up on the optimal lineup.
The primary reason is that we should get a striking battle here, and even in a high-volume affair which is likely, volume alone is not likely to be enough.
Magomedov is coming off a win in which he landed 97 sig. strikes, but only scored 74 DK points. Petrosyan’s last two decision wins have scored 81 and 77.
The fight as a whole is -220 to go the full 15 minute distance, so that’s my primary concern and I do anticipate an extended fight.
Magomedov is priced at 8.6k and likely needs a KO to be optimal. He has one decision win that scored 97 points but that was because he was taken down and was credited with an additional 100 strikes off his back. He is only +250 to win ITD here which isn’t great.
I’m not fully against Magomedov. He has KO upside in his style and Petrosyan has been hurt before. I would likely mix Magomedov into my portfolio. But I largely view him as a secondary, boom or bust target who needs an early KO. He will at least get the fight he wants, so there’s merit to him finding a big shot, but I’m still not super high on the outcome.
Petrosyan at 7.6k is viable in the sense that he probably gets a competitive kickboxing affair that he could win. And there’s variance in striking which could lead to a random KO.
But Petrosyan is only +575 to win ITD, and an 80 point decision feels like the more likely outcome. That’s not ideal, but at 7.6k it is tolerable.
I like Petrosyan some for win equity, but ultimately I am concerned about the ceiling and it would be one reason to shy away from him this weekend. His price savings will put me on him to a degree but only as a secondary target and in large fields I might chase upside a bit more.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrosyan by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Ibo Aslan vs. Rafael Cerqueira
Fight Odds: Cerqueira -114, Aslan -104
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Aslan 8.2k, Cerqueira 8k
Weight Class: 205
We’re likely to get a banger as Ibo Aslan steps back into the Octagon against newcomer Rafael Cerqueira this weekend.
These kinds of fights make it tough to be in the MMA analysis game because we just have to make so many educated guesses.
Cerqueira is 11-0 professionally at age 34, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and two by submission. He’s been fighting weak competition on the Brazilian regional scene, and there’s only one of his fights available to watch, which was a RD 1 KO.
From what I can tell, Cerqueira is a capable striker, who has a background in BJJ. I’m forced to watch his highlight reel as a method of analysis, and in that tape, you can see a variety of skills.
His kicks look pretty sharp, and he can attack the body and head. He will spin, throw some flying stuff, and he’s had success doing both.
There are a couple seconds of footage of him on the mat, one where he’s locking up an arm-triangle and one where he’s holding onto a back ride. I haven’t really seen him shoot takedowns though and in the only full fight we have, he did not wrestle.
And that’s basically it. So outside of that information, we’re essentially just guessing.
I think for now, Cerqueira will just fall into a typical bucket of a fighter I’d expect to have early success as his primary method of winning.
At age 34, I highly doubt he’s going to climb the rankings of the division. I’ve seen him face literally no adversity. Only one of his fights has gone the distance so I’m skeptical of his cardio.
He doesn’t seem like the most aggressive type, so I’d actually guess maybe his cardio is fine. I really don’t know how impactful his striking will be at this level but kicking at range is a decent base. His ground game could be legit and he has a BJJ black belt but I’m really unsure about his offensive or defensive wrestling.
Cerqueira will be taking on Ibo Aslan, who made his debut against Anton Turkalj in March and won by knockout in round three.
Aslan is 13-1 professionally and all 13 of his wins have come by knockout, with the vast majority of them coming in the first round.
This guy has marched through a handful of weak opponents, including his opponent on DWCS, who he knocked out in two minutes.
The guy is clearly powerful, and that can certainly translate to damage against better competition. He throws nice leg kicks, which is also a technique that I love. But we’re severely lacking in sample here as well and typically, fighters who dominate early tend not to do so well in extended fights.
The UFC actually decided to book Aslan against Turkalj, who gave Aslan his one and only loss in 2020, where Turkalj submitted him with a RNC in the second round.
You can watch that fight, and it’s not super pretty. Aslan walks Turkalj down, and lands a couple of nice leg kicks. Turkalj can’t connect with much offensively. Aslan ends up on top of Turkalj early but can’t produce offense from top position and Turkalj gets back up on his feet.
In round two, Turkalj lands a takedown of his own, and moves immediately into mount. From there, Aslan gives up his back to stand up and gets choked out.
It’s honestly an awful fight, and especially the ending sequence. Put everything else aside. Watching Turkalj immediately advance into mount from the takedown is a glaring red flag and tells me that at that time, Aslan really did not know how to grapple at all. It’s an elementary mistake to make.
Since that fight, Aslan has competed five times, and prior to his UFC debut he never made it to the halfway point of the first round. There’s been no worthwhile ground exchanges since.
In his debut against Turkalj, Aslan actually defended eight takedown attempts, which is a positive in the sense that he literally did not fall over. But none of the attempts make me feel extremely confident in his wrestling defense against better competition, and my primary concern is still what happens once the fight actually hits the mat.
On the feet, Aslan still showed his power but he was cracked early and arguably lost the first round. I did like that he was forced to fight longer, and won round two convincingly before putting Turkalj away in round three.
In theory, I have more hope that Aslan isn’t fully dependent on early damage though that’s still where I think the bulk of his success will come.
As far as this matchup, who knows really. On paper, these two will strike and someone will get hurt.
I think there’s merit to favoring Cerqueira though because he has a much better grappling game on paper, and could have a major advantage if he gets on top. Especially as Aslan hasn’t really shown the ability to fight out of ground exchanges yet, Cerqueira may be undervalued here.
I also like the kicking game of Cerqueira and I think Aslan can be hit, and hurt.
Aslan also is the more powerful and younger guy, and I don’t really know how much adversity Cerqueira can fight through. I’m open to the idea that Aslan can hurt Cerqueira badly or that Cerqueira won’t have much cardio himself after a round.
So all things considered, there’s just a lot of variance in this fight, and it could be fun and sloppy.
I think I will lean toward Cerqueira for the ground game aspect specifically, though there’s a decent chance he doesn’t attempt any takedowns. If the fight just plays out on the feet, I think someone will get hurt and finished in the first couple of rounds and I don’t have a super strong lean either direction.
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On DraftKings, this fight will rate out extremely well with Aslan priced at 8.2k and Cerqueira priced at 8k.
The fight itself is -600 to end inside the distance and if we get an early finish on either side, the winner will have a strong chance to contend for the optimal.
Currently, Cerqueira is a slight favorite and as the lesser priced man, I’d guess he comes in more popular. But having seen Aslan win by KO in the UFC already and still in a pick’em, ownership should be spread out somewhat evenly between the two.
I still lean toward Cerqueira slightly due to the grappling upside on paper, though it’s hard to quantify how much he has. He’s +130 to win ITD but I think he has KO and SUB equity, and it could come early.
Aslan has a better ITD line at +105 and has early KO upside. He’s probably a bit more boom or bust, and only scored 85 in a 3rd round KO win last time out.
I also think there’s a risk of an extended fight if both men are somewhat cautious, just like we saw in Aslan’s last fight. So despite it rating out well, it’s not necessarily a fight I’m confident enough to jam in 100 percent.
It should still likely be a priority in large fields and you can split your action any way you want. I feel a little better about the ceiling of Cerqueira, and he’s cheaper, so that’s my lean but it won’t be dramatic.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cerqueira by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Geoff Neal vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Odds: Neal -288, Dos Anjos +235
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Neal 9.2k, Dos Anjos 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle here between two veterans in Geoff Neal and Rafael Dos Anjos (“RDA”).
Neal is mostly a striker. He lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.47 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. I will defend Neal’s ratios in the sense that his competition has been good. For example, he has fought five rounds against Wonderboy. So I don’t think his metrics are that bad given the context of his competition levels.
I consider Neal a solid striker. He has adequate boxing and good straight punches. He also can mix in occasional kicks. I do get frustrated with him in some exchanges though. Sometimes, he will feint his way into punching range and be within range to land and will just not throw. He did this vs Wonderboy so much and against several other fighters.
I do respect Neal’s power. He has eight knockdowns in 14 UFC fights and has won by knockout a few times. Neal does have excellent TDD as he defends takedowns at 87 percent. He isn’t an offensive takedown threat though.
I think the main thing to point out about Neal is that he tends to do well in striking exchanges when people actually come after him. Guys like Luque, Perry and Niko Price came after him so Neal was able to tee off on them. Other guys like Wonderboy used lateral movement and controlled range, and Neal struggled.
Neal will be taking on RDA. I can’t believe RDA is still fighting at a high level. I watched him back when I was in HIGH SCHOOL back in 2008 in his UFC debut. This guy’s longevity has been incredible.
RDA is simply well-rounded and doesn’t have many holes. He is competent as a striker and grappler. He is also in tremendous physical condition and can fight a hard 25 minutes in his sleep. He has fought five rounds a whopping nine times.
RDA lands 3.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.21 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. RDA is a decent striker. In his prime, he had pretty ruthless leg kicks. I don’t think he is an elite striker and has declined as a striker to a degree as he has gotten older though. However, he can still compete on the feet, especially with his pace. He even bothered Vicente Luque down the stretch in their fight with his striking.
As a grappler, RDA is a BJJ black belt and is sound offensively and defensively. He lands 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about six takedowns per fight. He has decent takedowns and a decent top game, and can hold position on the mat. He really thrives with his arm triangle, especially against opponents who he has worn down.
I generally consider RDA a decent defensive grappler who can scramble up pretty well. It is really only good grapplers who can have success against him.
I really think RDA’s best asset is his cardio and pace. His striking and grappling all work because of the pace that he sets. It is really the glue to his game.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to have to go with the younger and more athletic Geoff Neal. Neal is really hard to take down and defends takedowns at 87 percent. My guess is that RDA can’t consistently get Neal down and these guys are forced to strike a bit. I do think RDA could potentially hold Neal against the fence though.
On the feet, I do favor Neal. I think he is a little more athletic and more powerful than RDA. My guess is he just generally lands the more effective strikes en route to a decision win. I still do think RDA’s pace and occasional takedown attempts and clinch control could make this an ugly close fight though. Neal can be passive at times.
So I do think RDA is capable of winning a close competitive decision here, but ultimately I think Neal is a more impactful striker so I will pick him to win.
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On DraftKings, I just consider Neal a contrarian target at 9.2k.
I really doubt he ends up too popular considering the championship fights below him, and the strength of the range up top. Plus, he’s lost three of his last five fights and has therefore only topped 65 points once in that span.
His one big score was a dominating one though, where he put up 122 DK points. I do think he has some KO equity and he’s +155 to win ITD.
That’s not a fantastic number though and he won’t rate out too well overall. Without a KO, Neal won’t land a ton of significant strikes and he’s not likely to wrestle much. So Neal does need an early KO to be optimal and RDA hasn’t lost via an early KO since his championship fight in 2016.
Still, he’s aging. And Neal should be low owned. If you want a spot to be unique, this is an interesting one to consider. I likely won’t be too invested in Neal personally as he’s extremely boom or bust and his path to a ceiling is questionable, but I consider him fairly viable as a pivot spot.
Dos Anjos at 7k is somewhat viable. He’s at least a very competent and well-rounded fighter so in that sense, he could win.
He could land a couple of takedowns. Even Neil Magny took Neal down and beat him though there were extenuating circumstances. I don’t think RDA easily gets Neal down but a couple takedowns are possible.
Otherwise, RDA won’t land a ton of offense and needs to edge out a couple of close rounds. It’s viable in a win equity sense but I’m not in love with his ceiling at +700 ITD.
If I have to play a fighter this cheap, RDA has some viability but he’s a low-end target and not one I’ll be super invested in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Neal by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Fight Odds: Orolbai -309, Rebecki +250
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Orolbai 9.1k, Rebecki 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Myktybek Orolbai was a three-fight vet of the LFA who bypassed the Contender Series as a short notice debutant last year – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 13-1-1 as a pro. Mateusz Rebecki’s a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season who had a dominant start to his UFC tenure in 2023. But he’s looking to rebound after dropping the ball as a big favorite last time out to Diego Ferreira – he’s 3-1 in the UFC and 19-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Orolbai’s standup falls more into the sambo/Russian coast type of style.
He’s linear, a little light on the feet and largely throws in single or two shot combos – lead hook, body kick, overhand, etc.
So, he’s not a guy who’s going to go out and push a particularly high striking pace but he has picked his shots well and shown some power to boot in hurting three of his last four opponents – the last guy he KO’d came from a pretty brutal uppercut back in LFA.
His fight prior against Elizario was largely pretty competitive through the early going with both guys trading mid-range shots – he started to find a better rhythm in the 2nd though and caught him. With that being said, the last two regional guys he fought were terrible – he closed a -350 against Elizario and -1250 against Charles.
It was his 1st and only pro loss to Satuev back in ACA where he got out struck but not by crazy margin – not a bad loss though as Satuev is still doing his thing over in Russia and that fight was three years ago.
In the UFC, Medic landed some big shots on him early, but the fight was barely at space. Against Brenner, the distance strikes were close and 35 to 32 in favor of Brenner, but Orolbai hurt Brenner badly on three separate occasions which ultimately won him the striking.
Overall, his stand up is kind of “clunky” to be honest but it can be really effective when he’s able to pressure and head the cage off. However, I still have some serious reservations with him when he fights a more capable range striker.
Rebecki is a grappler by base but has shown some solid things in the stand up as well.
He’s definitely on the shorter end of 155 but is a compact southpaw who likes to pressure his opponents, sit down on his punches and fire off kicks to both the legs and body.
Rebecki has also shown to work at a consistent rate to get the better of the stand up in most of his fights.
He’s also shown power components with nine of his 19 pro wins coming via strikes – some coming on the ground but many at space as I’ve seen him hurt guys with straight lefts and body kicks.
The issue I have with him is that he can get a bit “brawly” in the pocket at times and square up his stance, which also makes him susceptible there – specifically to straight punches. So, his defense still needs some work and he can struggle when put on the back foot.
He was KO’d in his first pro loss but that was back in 2014. We also saw him most recently just get gas pedaled down the stretch by Ferreira where he succumbed to a positional TKO.
Overall, I like his aggression and he’s a respectable offensive striker, but his cardio is of bigger concern now and he’ll probably struggle with fighters who can fight longer on a consistent basis.
How it plays out: The striking’s a bit difficult to analyze in the sense that Orolbai has been in the driver’s seat for most of the exchanges in his fights. Coupled with the fact that he hasn’t faced a more consistent stalking type of opponent like Rebecki. But he will realize a 3” height and 8” reach advantage in this matchup which leads me to believe he may be able to fight longer here and break up Rebecki pressure with clinching/wrestling components as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Orolbai’s official background but it appears he comes from more of a floor base hailing from eastern Europe.
He also trains over at Team Alpha Male now in California which is traditionally known to be a wrestling based gym. I don’t think his entries are anything world class, but he does a good job of riding his opponents and staying on them.
Opponents have been able to work up under him at times, but his general top control has largely been solid.
I wouldn’t say he’s a “lay and prayer” but I also wouldn’t say he’s a super proactive passer either – he definitely takes his time which I think is actually a good thing. He has four submissions early on in his career but over guys with no pro wins so take that for what you will.
I did see him get reversed one time regionally, but he was able to get out of the position quickly to get right back on offense.
In the UFC, he landed seven TDs on Medic and eventually found a neck crank in the 2nd round. Against Brenner, he largely dominated through the first couple rounds, but he got tired and was reversed a few times by Brenner where he conceded some minutes on the bottom.
He also lost a point for a cage grab and was taken down three times in the 3rd round, giving up some bad positions. In fairness, Brenner in Round 3 is kind of a mythical creature as he always seems to catch a second wind and gas his opponents. Orolbai is lucky he knocked Brenner down at the bell though because if he didn’t, the fight probably would have been a draw with his point deduction.
Overall, I think Orolbai’s more of a “brute” in comparison to being some excellent technical wrestler or jiu-jitsu player to be honest. But he’s very physically strong and persistent with the game he plays, making him a tough out in this realm if opponents don’t come proper.
Rebecki is a BJJ black belt who’s won and placed in multiple tournaments over the years in Europe – specifically some of ADCC’s regional tournaments.
Seven of his 19 pro wins have come via submission which isn’t vast but as noted, he has multiple GNP finishes as well. He was also able to lock up a nice RNC in his Contender Series fight.
Despite his BJJ base, his wrestling is actually pretty respectable for a base BJJ guy, and he will secure multiple TDs in his fights.
His control components have been largely good but more so back regionally. In his debut against Fiore, he landed three TDs on four attempts and racked up 8+ minutes of control time. He went 2/2 against Roberts and was able to lock up a guard sub armbar after briefly losing position in transition.
He went 4/5 against Ferreira last time out but struggled to control him there post knockdown. As noted, he gassed out in the fight and gave up three TDs himself, and eventually was positionally TKO’d late in the fight.
Outside of that, we haven’t seen him on bottom much, which is largely due to how much offensive success he’s had, coupled with many guys not really shooting on him.
Fiore did get him down once where he was nearly able to gain dominant position, but Rebecki scrambled out quickly – he also stuffed two other attempts.
So, I do have some more questions about how Rebecki looks should he be grounded. I would assume he’s probably fine from a submission perspective but I’m not sure how he fairs against a stronger wrestler.
Overall, Rebecki appears to be multifaceted on the floor, but cardio is of concern.
How it plays out: The ground’s interesting here for a handful of reasons. We saw both guys gas out in their last respective fights but have traditionally been scrambly when put on the bottom and have also shown good offensive capabilities. The majority of guys who Orolbai has fought haven’t really had any wrestling to their name as well so Rebecki will be arguably the best guy he’s fought in that department. But why I ultimately favor Orolbai is really just in physicality and attrition. Of the two, I think I probably trust him to dig deeper in extended situations.
Weird fight. Orolbai’s not going to be an easy guy to look good against, but he’s also had relatively favorable matchups to his style thus far in his career. On the flip side, everyone was in love with Rebecki just five months ago but got vet lessoned by CDF. I’ll take Orolbai to grind out a decision win but it’s not a passionate opinion.
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On DraftKings, this fight is definitely on my radar considering the offensive potential of both sides, though I am a bit nervous it will result in a competitive fight that doesn’t allow the winner to reach a ceiling.
Orolbai is priced at 9.1k and I have interest in him as a target. He’s scored 123 and 108 in his two UFC wins, with the latter coming by decision.
Now he’s facing an opponent who just got tired and was taken down, and TKOd in round three due to exhaustion. The combination of Orolbai’s wrestling style, and the theory that he could use that to grind Rebecki out and win by TKO is highly intriguing.
I guess I’m just not sold that Rebecki is going to tip over and lose in the same fashion. We’ve also seen similar questions with Orolbai in extended fights, though I agree with Luke that he’s the more likely of the two to fight through adversity.
Orolbai is going to rate out well for 9.1k, ultimately. He’s only +165 to win ITD but he has some finishing equity, and could land 5+ takedowns as he has in each of his two UFC bouts. At this price, Orolbai could easily exceed value and contend for the optimal lineup.
I am just nervous that his wrestling here will not come as easily as in his past two matchups. I would be a little nervous about relying on him as a striker at this price, and I also think Rebecki is skilled enough to potentially make the fight competitive early or tire Orolbai out late.
So while I see the obvious merit for upside on Orolbai, I am less convinced that he makes it look easy. I will likely end up with moderate exposure to Orolbai by default as I love his style and the price is fine, but I’d consider Neal or others as a pivot off Orolbai if you need a spot to be more unique. And I wouldn’t mind paying up further to someone like Nzechukwu who has more clear RD 1 KO equity.
It’s a very good spot stylistically but not the worst spot to pivot away if Orolbai ends up projecting as the chalk.
Rebecki at 7.1k interests me some.
In his three UFC wins, he’s scored 104, 122 and 112, so he carries clear upside in his style. This is obviously a very difficult matchup, but Orolbai was just taken down three times by Brener, so I think Rebecki has paths.
And although I’m extremely nervous about Rebecki’s cardio, Orolbai has had similar issues.
I am not high on Rebecki in this spot but I am high on him as a fantasy option in general, and I think he may be slightly undervalued in this matchup based on his last result. He’s +300 ITD and may carry leverage against Orolbai.
I won’t excitedly pay down for Rebecki but when I need to dip below the Max Holloway tier, Rebecki is on my radar and someone I wouldn’t mind using as a low-end secondary target or coming in overweight to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Orolbai by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira
Fight Odds: Magomedov -152, Ferreira +132
Odds to Finish: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Magomedov 8.4k, Ferreira 7.8k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Abus Magomedov is rounding out his 2nd year on the active roster to where we’ve seen a mixed bag of performances – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 26-6-1 as a pro. Brunno Ferreira is a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season but hasn’t spent much time in the UFC’s cage either, making quick work of his opponents or vice versa – he’s 3-1 in the promotion and 12-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Magomedov is a good sized 185er, standing 6’2” with a 78” reach. Despite coming from a wrestling background, he’s a Russian who does prefer to stand and strike.
He primarily likes to operate in the mid-range to pressure where he’ll work at a more methodical pace. His main core competencies are his straight shots and body kicks in which he’s found healthy amounts of success throughout his pro career.
He’s also a rare Russian who possesses pure KO power as well, with 14 of his 26 pro wins coming via strikes.
With all those attributes, he still has elements of the Russian coast game in terms of being able to limit damage and exchanges coming back his way to a degree. However, his defense isn’t as good as the traditional Russian coasters, more specifically when he’s put on the back foot.
He did get clipped in his last loss pre-UFC by Taylor 30 seconds into the 2018 PFL Championship.
The main knock I would have on him defensively is that he can overextend on shots when coming in – but exchange to exchange at range, he’s largely solid.
But even in fighting a long kickboxer in Sadibou Sy, Sy still had real troubles getting much off on him.
However, now fighting in the UFC, he had a strong start against Strickland but gassed himself out and got finished. He then had a slower paced fight with Borralho that was competitive through the early going but slowed down again, and Borralho really started to pick up on his timing and also hurt Magomedov badly in the 3rd round despite not finishing.
Not much happened in the most recent outing against Alves.
Overall, with our more recent sample and against a better brand of competition, I think it’s fair to say that Magomedov is a “driver’s seat” striker. As noted, he’s still a pretty dangerous guy but if opponents aren’t going to give him an entirely pretty, slow paced fight, he’s going to struggle at this level – there’s really no reason he should have slowed down like he did against Borralho considering that fight was fought at a snail’s pace.
Ferreira’s a smaller 185er, standing 5’10” with a 72” reach. But he’s very compact, will switch stances and has shown big power components within the pocket with nine of his 12 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
I don’t think he’s a technical savant as he can load his punches and overextend at times, but in his debut upset over Rodrigues, he landed a really processed counter left which ultimately put Rodrigues out cold. But the dude’s an absolute bull on the inside and guys can’t make small mistakes against him.
Defensively, he does a good job of getting his guard back up but he did struggle with some of the straights of Rodrigues, and was probably losing the fight up until the KO despite competing – the distance strikes were 20 to 19.
Historically, he’s been durable but that caught up to him in his outing 2nd outing where he threw a leg kick and ate a perfectly timed shot right down the pipe from Ruziboev – kind of a dumb gameplan to be honest trying to time entry kicks against an opponent who had such a large length advantage over him – the right hand of Ruziboev was really the one thing he needed to worry about and couldn’t avoid it.
Both guys landed some good shots in the Hawes fight, but Ferriera eventually found the glass chin of Hawes right at the bell of the 1st. Most recently, Stoltzfus was winning the early exchanges but got caught with a spinning attack from Ferreira which started the beginning of the end.
Overall, I don’t think Ferreira is anything special but he’s not technically inept and is a dangerous hitter. But given his lack of size at the weight class and the fact that we haven’t seen him past six minutes is of bigger concern.
How it plays out: The glaring thing to note off the top is that Magomedov will realize a 4” height and 6” reach advantage in the matchup. In fairness, Ferreira is going to be undersized in virtually all his matchups and it hasn’t held him back much, but Magomedov will be one of the longer guys he’s faced. A bulk of what the striking comes down to is what range the fight is fought at. Both guys obviously have the power capabilities to put each other down which adds general variance. But the long range attacks from Magomedov profile to give some bigger issues to Ferreira and the pocket striking of Ferreira profiles to give issues to Magomedov.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Magomedov is actually a wrestler by base. However, he’s not a guy you can really trust to wrestle with any consistency.
But in the rare times he has, he’s looked largely strong with good entries and control capabilities – his wrestling helped him earn wins back in PFL to get to the championship over Umalatov and Sy.
He’s also shown a really nasty guillotine with a tight squeeze if guys get sloppy against the fence. But he did wrestle proactively last time out against Alves, going 6/7 on TDs racking up 12 minutes of control.
He hasn’t been shot on all that much but has shown a good ability to down block, use over hooks and dig underhooks.
He was submitted in his first two pro losses but we’re also going back a decade when he was just a kid.
Borralho got on top of him late in that fight and took his back, but Magomedov held on. Outside of that, he’s been able to work up to the feet quickly on every instance he’s been on the bottom.
Overall, our floor sample of Magomedov is still smaller both offensively and defensively, but he’s shown to be capable when he’s fresh.
Judo is Ferreira’s base martial art where he holds a black belt in the discipline along with a jiu-jitsu black belt as well.
Despite being known more recently as a perennial power guy, he’s landed TDs in a lot of his fights where he’s shown good throws and can elevate guys with high crotches or double legs.
On the ground, his control components have largely been good and has shown to be an effective passer. He’s got vicious GNP and a respectable submission game to mount and take backs.
He was never taken down conventionally on the regional scene, but he did lose position in one instance going for a triangle. He was able to re-reverse quickly and get back on top though. He secured a triangle in another instance but hasn’t been shot on all that much.
His entries against Rodrigues didn’t look great and almost got his back taken but did the proper things to allow that to not happen – Rodrigues is a higher-level black belt as well.
He hit a really nice foot sweep on Hawes who’s not an easy guy to take down. Most recently, he did concede some early ground minutes to Stoltzfus and got his back taken but was able to work out of the positions.
Overall, the floor has been a nice complement to the power components that Ferreira possesses standing, but there are still some defensive questions on him given sample.
How it plays out: The ground is tricky to analyze given how little we’ve seen of both guys on the bottom. Magomedov’s obviously coming off a dominant ground performance last time out but that was a bit outside of the norm and I also think that Ferreira will be more difficult to hold down than Alves. Ferreira may profile as the guy to shoot more here given size parity but assessing what level of success he has there against Magomedov is highly questionable.
This is a fun matchup but one that also brings a healthy number of questions. Despite Magomedov’s last fight, I still don’t trust his cardio much really – his opponent was just more tired than he was. On the flip side, Ferreira hasn’t been past the 6-minute mark of a fight so assessing what his cardio looks like in an extended matchup is highly questionable. Given his more explosive nature, he profiles as probably not having great cardio either. I’ll take Magomedov as a pure pick as he’s the guy that’s won decision’s in the equation but it’s volatile.
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On DraftKings, I really like this fight for finishing potential and I think there’s a decent chance it ends early.
Magomedov is priced at 8.4k, and he’s my preferred target. I think there’s a bit of value on his moneyline given the matchup (at least there was when he was lined in the -135 range), though I’m making educated guesses.
Largely, Ferreira profiles much more as the type who needs an early finish. As the much smaller man against a likely superior wrestler, I just can’t project Ferreira to have much success in an extended fight. I also don’t think he’s super durable.
While Magomedov has cardio questions too, I think he’ll be the fresher party late in the fight and I think he has an easier path to control and distance success. If Ferreira beats him though, it probably comes via another early KO.
Magomedov is +120 to win ITD here and I don’t mind being overweight personally. His box scores are OK, and I don’t think he’ll be super chalky.
There is definitely some risk of Magomedov busting in an extended fight but I think he has KO upside and wrestling upside. He just scored 105 in a three-round wrestling decision, but I’d honestly be surprised if the fight lasted that long. I think Magomedov is a more dangerous outside striker and has a decent shot to hurt Ferreira early too.
There are still some elements of boom or bust here, and the fight is lined competitively, but I lean toward Magomedov and I’ll target him more than the field.
Ferreira is a strong target as well at 7.8k but he’s coming off a highlight reel win and has scored 111, 117 and 109 in his three wins. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s more popular than Magomedov come Saturday.
Ferreira rates out very well too with a +150 ITD line, and Magomedov has already been dropped in both of his UFC losses. An early KO is very viable for Ferreira and also Magomedov has cardio issues of his own.
Coming in high on Ferreira is a fine strategy, though he could be more chalky, he certainly carries early finishing potential. I’d like exposure to him and I’d like to be pretty heavy on this fight as a whole.
I just worry a bit more about Ferreira’s size and lack of experience past round one, so this isn’t the matchup where I’m stoked to play him. The fight as a whole is -350 to end ITD though so it feels like a strong matchup to target either way.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett
Fight Odds: Nzechukwu -725, Barnett +500
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Nzechukwu 9.7k, Barnett 6.5k
Weight Class: HW
We were supposed to get a messy Chris Barnett fight two weeks ago, but the matchup fell off and instead we get to see him face Kennedy Nzechukwu on short notice.
It’s funny actually because Nzechukwu is taking this fight without a full camp and he’s moving up from light heavyweight to heavyweight, but that shouldn’t matter. He’s the biggest favorite on the card and should melt Barnett if he has anything left in the tank.
Nzechukwu is 6’5” tall which should stand massive over the 5’9” Barnett, and Nzechukwu will have an eight-inch reach advantage as well.
Nzechukwu is mostly a striker and a mediocre one at that. He lands 5.13 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.90 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate.
He’s had some good performances in the past. He came back to beat Carlos Ulberg in a high-paced contest. He knocked out Ion Cutelaba and submitted Devin Clark.
He’s just green and always has been. That’s why he’s barely landing more strikes than he absorbs, and his defense isn’t spectacular. But Nzechukwu can at least throw stuff, and he’s actually coming off a loss in which he landed 106 sig. strikes in 15 minutes.
The bigger issue lately has been on the defensive side where he’s been knocked out and hurt a bunch. Da Woon Jung KOd him in round one in 2021. Jacoby KOd him in round one in 2023. And OSP just beat him by decision but dropped Nzechukwu and landed 143 sig. strikes.
So ultimately, I’m far from trusting on Nzechukwu. He’s capable, and can put out offense, but he’ll rarely dominate the numbers and he has some defensive question marks.
I still think he’s far better than Barnett, who’s an out of shape meme and is likely dependent on early damage to win.
Most will remember Barnett from his highlight reel KO against Gian Villante in 2021, but outside of the one maneuver, Barnett has never impressed me much.
He was outstruck and outgrappled by Ben Rothwell, and eventually gassed out and tapped to a guillotine choke. He was also controlled in the clinch and beaten up by Martin Buday.
Even on the regional scene, he showed to be a very poor wrestler and grappler, and by default is a lower output striker, semi-dependent on landing damaging shots.
In his most recent win, Barnett was dominated in the first round by Jake Collier who’s another out of shape HW, and Collier very nearly secured the finish. Collier gassed out after the first round though, and Barnett found a way to get on top of him and pound him out in round two.
It was cool to see the comeback, but again I’m just not impressed.
Barnett is now landing 4.41 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.87 per minute with a 40 percent defensive rate. He can’t really defend takedowns at 33 percent, and he’s never landed a takedown of his own.
His cardio is a major question mark, as is his durability. He’s got some power for HW but that’s about it.
As far as the matchup, Kennedy should tower over Barnett and should be the far more effective distance striker. Nzechukwu isn’t even a great range striker but the fact that he’s eight inches taller with an eight-inch reach advantage should really help him land at will.
Barnett will just have to chase him down to get on the inside and make it a brawl. I really don’t think he’s capable of it, but sure, it’s possible Barnett could land a big strike. I noted that Nzechukwu has poor defense and durability so it is a possible outcome.
I just don’t think Barnett has much time to get it done. Nzechukwu just went 15 minutes in a high paced fight and is surely the superior fighter late in the contest.
Nzechukwu isn’t a great grappler himself but he recently showed improved wrestling and he took down Karl Roberson five times. I definitely think he could get on top of Barnett if he wanted as well.
Despite Nzechukwu’s issues, I consider this a mismatch in terms of athletic potential and skill, and Nzechukwu should win it, probably by TKO. This is HW so there’s some added variance, but not enough to scare me away.
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On DraftKings, Nzechukwu is the most expensive fighter on the slate at 9.7k and he’ll be difficult to afford.
With multiple championship options in the 8k range, and a strong slate overall, there is a fairly decent chance you won’t have the ability to pay up to Nzechukwu, or that he won’t be necessary even with a strong result.
Because of this, Nzechukwu simply is not a must. It would be totally reasonable to load up on the championship fights, and the mid-range, and ultimately come in light on Nzechukwu.
With that said, I think he has one of the best chances to win in RD 1 on the slate, and he’s -275 to win ITD overall. If I do have the ability to pay up, I’d probably prefer to play him straight up over the rest of the 9k range.
So I’m also comfortable with a moderate amount of exposure to Nzechukwu, if for example you find yourself gravitating toward a cheap fighter in the 7k range that affords you the salary.
I will never force the fighter into my lineups in these situations, and Nzechukwu hasn’t really shown an elite ceiling in the past. But my god, Barnett is not a real HW and I’d be pretty surprised if Nzechukwu couldn’t put him away early.
Barnett at 6.5k is just a dart throw for large field tournaments.
I don’t think I will get to him with a limited portfolio, but he’s a fine sprinkle if you’re going to max. He at least carries some power and there is variance in this division. Barnett is only +585 to win ITD but he’ll be very low owned.
Again, I am not a fan and I don’t think investing much here is wise but if you want to punt a tiny percentage in large fields, just in case he finds another meme victory, be my guest.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nzechukwu by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo
Fight Odds: Basharat -725, Hugo +500
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Basharat 9.6k, Hugo 6.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Looking to go 5-0 in the UFC, I am excited to see Farid Basharat fight again when he takes on Victor Hugo this weekend.
Basharat is a very good fighter. He is well-rounded with good cardio. His decision win against Taylor Lapilus is also aging well.
I think Basharat is best as a wrestler. He lands 3.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him a good wrestler who is fundamentally sound and skilled. He also has good control and submission stifling ability. He landed five out of 16 takedowns against Lapilus and showed he can volume wrestle hard for 15 minutes against a decent defensive grappler. I think Basharat can continue to outwrestle a lot of fighters in this weight class.
Basharat is also a skilled striker. He lands 4.47 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.44 in return. He defends takedowns at 57 percent. He is a technical striker and outlanded Lapilus at range 39-34. I don’t consider him a great striker or anything and I do have concerns with his athleticism. However, he strikes fine and always strikes on his terms, and blends his striking and grappling very well. He also has good cardio and is defensively sound, and defends takedowns at 83 percent.
Basharat is simply a solid, trustworthy and well-rounded fighter. He can strike, grapple, has good cardio and generally fights smart.
Basharat will be taking on Victor Hugo. Hugo is a Brazilian fighter who is 25-4 professionally. Hugo won by kneebar on the Contender Series to book his ticket to the UFC. He then won by decision against Pedro Falcao where he defended 12 of 13 takedowns but was taken down early and controlled for much of the round.
I thought his defensive grappling looked okay in that fight, but I do think good wrestlers can take him down, control him, and give him issues.
Hugo seems okay. He has 17 finishes with most of them coming by submission. I actually don’t consider him a bad offensive wrestler. He is capable of landing some decent takedowns here and there, and I actually thought his grappling cardio looked fine in his decision win against Shunsuke Kamei. His wrestling isn’t great, but I honestly don’t think it is that bad, and I do think he is capable of outgrappling below-average grapplers in the UFC.
Hugo also seems reasonably dangerous as a submission grappler. A lot of his submissions have come by kneebar and heel hook which I don’t like as those types of submissions expose fighters to losing position and ground-and-pound. However, I do think he is capable of meme-ing submissions here and there at this level.
As a striker, I don’t like Hugo much. He is way too low volume for my liking. However, he is explosive and is capable of knocking opponents out. He also does a decent job at minimizing engagements. He also seems reasonably tough.
He is too low volume on the feet for my liking, but I do think he is dangerous enough standing and as a grappler to cause some variance in fights. I also don’t think his offensive wrestling is all that bad. His defensive grappling looks okay but nothing special either.
As far as this matchup goes, I just think Basharat is a little too well-rounded for Hugo. Seeing Hugo get pushed up vs the fence and taken down and controlled a bit against Falcao makes me pretty confident that Basharat can take him down and control him for a mild to moderate amount of time. So honestly Basharat is the justified heavy favorite for that reason alone.
On the feet, I do think Hugo is okay and dangerous. However, Basharat is just so sound defensively and can likely just win the striking exchanges too. I also just think Hugo is a finish reliant fighter in general, and even more so in this fight while Basharat seems too skilled to get finished often.
So overall, I just think Basharat will avoid the danger that Hugo presents and generally win the striking exchanges, and land takedowns to take control of the fight. Hugo can maybe resist to a degree and compete in stretches and have occasional explosive moments. However, Basharat is the rightful favorite here and should get his hand raised on Saturday if he keeps his focus.
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On DraftKings, Basharat is very expensive at 9.6k but he’s among the safest options on the slate.
He’s a heavy favorite sitting north of -700 on some books, and he has a wrestling focused style. He’s landed 3+ takedowns in three of his last four fights, and there’s a reasonable chance he can earn lots of control in this matchup while Hugo fights from the bottom.
In that sense alone, Basharat is viable. He’s only scored 87 and 82 in his decision wins but he did put up 112 in his first-round sub win in 2023.
The issue here is that Basharat is only +185 to win ITD, and Hugo is pretty tough. I think it’s more likely that Basharat wins a control based decision than that he dominates and secures an early finish. So there’s definitely merit to coming in light on Basharat, hoping he fails to hit a ceiling outcome at this price tag.
He’s just super expensive anyways. At 9.6k, even 100-110 points may not be enough to be optimal.
I am guessing the public won’t gravitate toward playing him at this price either, despite the great odds to win. Nzechukwu has much clearer early KO upside, and there are viable targets below. So there’s some merit to using Basharat as a fighter who won’t be super chalky..
I will give Basharat an additional viability bump in smaller field contests and/or cash games where floor is more impactful, but in large fields, I think I’d prioritize other options/cheaper options more and I’m not super excited to pay up this far despite expecting a decent result.
Hugo at 6.6k doesn’t interest me much.
He’s a huge underdog and I don’t think his game will translate super well here. He’s not going to land tons of strikes, or wrestle with much success. I think there’s some upside within his style but he’s +900 to win ITD.
There are other underdogs with more win equity and more favorable matchups in general for scoring, and I will be prioritizing them for the most part. Hugo is just a dart throw for large fields and not someone who I plan to roster much at all this weekend.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Basharat by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva
Fight Odds: Naurdiev -175, Silva +150
Odds to Finish: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Naurdiev 8.3k, Silva 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Bruno Silva’s rounding out his fourth year on the active roster and after a hot start to his run, he’s really struggled in the last couple years. His job in all likelihood will be on the line Saturday – he’s 4-5 in the UFC and 23-11 as a pro. Ismail Naurdiev got signed to the UFC back in 2019 but got bounced out of the promotion on his first contract after going 2-2. He then went back to the regionals where he’s since gone 4-3 which isn’t the traditional run that warrants a fighter being re-signed, which is kind of interesting. He’ll now also be fighting at 185 although he’s historically fought at 170 or 175 lb catchweights – he’s 23-7 as a pro.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Silva is more of a blitz striker who’s shown bigger power components in the past, with 20 of his 23 pro wins coming via KO. He’s shown some okay clinch components as well but is largely pretty hook reliant. Being a blitz striker, his pacing can be inconsistent at times.
His record overall is somewhat padded but he has beaten some respectable guys in recent years.
Defensively, he largely resorts to shelling and can move back in straight lines when effectively pressured.
Historically, he hadn’t been attritionally beat up on the feet much, but that’s changed in recent years. Pereira just chipped away at him and nearly finished later – to Silva’s credit, he had his moments in that fight and landed some solid shots, but was just at too big of a technical deficiency.
His fight with GM3 was also concerning though as he largely got “rope a doped” by a base grappler, hurt and eventually finished – his primary issue there was that he just couldn’t track down GM3 with consistency. He did have Allen hurt as both guys threw down in the pocket, but he ultimately lost that battle getting clipped.
His UFC Ws are interesting as he KO’d Turman in the guard, deaded Sanchez in the 3rd when Sanchez was exhausted, iced Jordan Wright which was far from shocking but got a nice KO win over Tavares.
More recently, Magomedov just chewed him with kicks and landed the bigger shots. Weidman out landed him 56 to 29 at distance which isn’t a great look considering where Weidman is at in this stage of his career – similar to the Allan and Magomedov fights though, he landed some really clean shots on Weidman, but Weidman ate them.
Overall, given Silva’s historic KO rate and that he hasn’t won a decision since 2016, he’s a fighter that’s largely reliant on needing guys to go down because he just hasn’t shown the ability to consistently win minutes standing. Despite hanging tough in a handful of his recent losses, I question his durability at this point because he’s getting hurt a lot.
Naurdiev has had a lengthy career despite being only 28 years old, where we’ve seen some different striking approaches from him over the years.
He’s repped the nickname of the “Austrian Wonderboy” in the past due to some of his explosive and flashy jumping/kicking techniques where 12 of his 23 pro wins come via KO/TKO.
I’d say in more recent years though whilst still repping a solid kicking game, he’s toned his style back a bit more to now be a more methodical kickboxer. So, he’s not going to blow your hair back in the volume department necessarily but it’s relatively technical in the game he plays.
We even saw him go out and take the 1st round on the feet from Sean Brady in his last UFC outing prior to being cut.
He also did some solid work against Prazeres in his debut and really beat the body up of Rencountre in his sophomore appearance.
He’ll keep a higher shelling guard in terms of his defense although it can be split and worked around.
He’s also struggled with counter shots in recent years as he was put down early by Kutsyi, and club and subbed by Bandel in the fight prior. Al-Silawi was also able to take him out early via kicks in his 1st regional loss post UFC.
Overall, despite the extensive sample size we have of Naurdiev, he’s still a bit of a tricky guy to get a read on. I think he’s got some solid technical tools and KO power but he’s also kind of flakey at the same time.
How it plays out: The striking’s weird here. I think Naurdiev has the technical tools, specifically within the kicking department (especially if Silva goes southpaw) to give Silva a healthy number of issues. But as noted, he’s not necessarily a volume machine and has some defensive flaws. Silva is the bigger pure hitter of the two and I wouldn’t be surprised if he just memes Naurdiev. But I would lean toward Naurdiev in more extended exchanges.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Silva is a BJJ black belt but with ironic historics given his belt ranking as he has no wins via submission and has been submitted in 7 of his 11 losses.
In his debut against Turman, he got his back taken for extensive minutes early, but Turman didn’t put a body triangle on (really stupid) and lost position – Silva KO’d him in the guard. But that’s not a unique fight either as we’ve seen Silva get his back taken and be outwrestled before. He was also outwrestled by Sanchez for the overwhelming majority of the first two rounds.
GM3 also had some early wrestling success but the finish in that fight and in the Allen fight were club and subs, in the defense of Silva. Weidman also got some early ride time on him more recently.
Offensively, he’s hit some TDs here and there, but he isn’t a very good wrestler and guys have also accepted TDs before against him.
He has been dangerous with ground and pound though which needs to be noted when he gets on top.
Most recently, he went 3/7 on TDs against Magomedov and racked up nearly seven minutes of control, but also ate a healthy amount of strikes from the bottom and got 2x’d on the feet, so the groundwork he was able to do was futile – coupled with that he was gassed from all the shots he took.
Overall, outside of his ground and pound, the floor is a weakness for Silva.
Naurdiev started training wrestling in his teens before making the shift to MMA shortly after where he had his 1st pro fight at the age of 16. He’s shown to be a capable offensive wrestler, but I still wouldn’t necessarily classify it as “good”.
He’s definitely a guy who likes to stand in his fights but depending on the matchup, he’s mixed it in to where he’s found success in grinding guys out.
Six of his 23 pro wins have come via submission – he pulled off a standing guillotine choke in his last outing but over a 36-year-old smoker so rather meaningless. His last submission win before though dates all the way back to 2016 so in a vacuum, he hasn’t been much of a threat in that realm despite winning some fights with his wrestling.
But he did hit a nice switch against Zheenbekov in his 2nd to last regional win, where he pounded the guy out from back mount.
Defensively is where he’s had some issues.
His general TDD actually isn’t bad and is relatively decent as he stuffed at 70% through his four UFC fights, and has by and large stayed upright from conventional TDs in his most recent regional run.
But the floor was ultimately the catalyst in his two UFC losses to Rencountre where he gave up two TDs and 11 minutes of control, and to Brady giving up four TDs and eight minutes of control.
In Naurdiev’s defense, Rencountre was a collegiate wrestler and we know how good Sean Brady is on the ground now – Naurdiev actually did a good job of avoiding dominant positions with Brady.
Overall, Naurdiev still probably profiles to struggle with higher level ground guys at the UFC level, but he does have the offensive wrestling abilities to win fights if opponents don’t come proper and can’t solidify control positions on him.
How it plays out: I’d give the ground advantage to Naurdiev here as he’s the better offensive wrestler of the two and Silva in a vacuum hasn’t shown a ton of interest in wrestling. He struggled to hold down Pereira and really only held Magomedov down because Magomedov doesn’t have much of a get up game. Silva doesn’t have the control components to keep Naurdiev down should he try to wrestle. The concern I have with Naurdiev in taking a wrestling centric approach is that he’ll probably fatigue and we saw what happened in the 3rd round when Sanchez fought Silva. Nonetheless, I still think Naurdiev holds most of the minute upside.
This is a weird fight. I’ve never really been a Bruno Silva guy, even from the jump as I thought he was a meme and not very good coming in – that assessment has largely proven to be true – he’s not losing to bums in fairness though. On the flip side, I think Naurdiev’s decent but there’s just something about the kid that rubs me the wrong way. Like he’s got a respectable fundamental skillset but just strikes me as a fighter who will never live up to any true potential he possibly had. Xs and Os wise, I think Naurdiev should probably win but I don’t really trust him and think he’s incredibly live to get blasted in this fight.
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On DraftKings, Naurdiev has been bet up since the open, and he’s now a value at 8.3k while his moneyline is -175ish.
This makes things interesting because I expect him to draw attention against an opponent who has lost five of his past six.
On paper, Naurdiev is in a good spot. He has some nice kicking elements to his game, and Silva has been knocked down multiple times recently. Naurdiev also profiles as the better wrestler, and he’s +165 to win ITD. All considered, he will rate out well and be a decent value at this price.
Especially in a range with S. Magomedov/Petrosyan, Aslan/Cerquiera and A. Magomedov/Ferreira, Naurdiev is the biggest favorite of the group.
I am just highly skeptical of the kid. It’s extremely concerning to me that he fought seven times on the regional scene since being cut from the UFC, and he was finished three different times. He wasn’t that great in his UFC run either and lost to at least one questionable opponent.
Granted, this is a decent matchup on paper. Naurdiev will have an opportunity to exceed value. He may truly be more safe than those other names around him and there is value in that – but I feel a bit more inclined to roster him in cash, than push my luck in tournaments.
At least two of those other fights I mentioned in this range are more likely to end ITD, and while Silva has had issues at times, he’s still been tough to finish. He went three rounds with Alex Pereira without getting KOd.
I’m just getting the vibes here that if Naurdiev projects to be a popular tournament target, I’d rather be underweight. It’s not a fade suggestion since he does rate out well and has some upside in his style, but I worry that the fight will extend and he won’t truly dominate.
He is a solid secondary option nonetheless, especially in builds where you are already unique elsewhere. And I think he has additional viability for cash games and smaller field contests.
Silva feels like a pretty strong leverage target at 7.9k.
Not only is he overpriced, but his recent run has been awful, and I am guessing that will lead to a relatively low public ownership this week. He also has early KO upside within his style, against an opponent who has been finished several times, even outside of the UFC.
Silva is still extremely boom or bust as I doubt he lands a ton of strikes or wrestles. He’s only +195 to win ITD. It feels like a major risk to play him and I’d be scared to have too much.
But I like this range a lot for upside, and this is one good spot to be different. Silva will be the bigger man and will have some opportunities early and I like him as a pivot/leverage candidate in large fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Naurdiev by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal
Fight Odds: Fakhretdinov -220, Leal +185
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Fakhretdinov 8.9k, Leal 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
The UFC was looking for a replacement to step in and fight Rinat Fakhretdinov, after his previous opponent pulled out, and they found one in newcomer Carlos Leal.
Leal was originally scheduled to fight in UAE on October 22nd, and he’s been a regional journeyman, having competed in both PFL and LFA for a number of years.
Leal is 21-5 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned 10 wins by knockout and two by submission.
I would say his primary skill set is boxing, where he will pressure and throw some power shots. Otherwise, I don’t consider there to be a ton of depth in Leal’s game.
He’s competed against decent competition compared to other debutants, having fought Sabidou Sy multiple times in PFL, Ray Cooper, David Zawada and others.
But in terms of technique, I don’t love it. Leal stands kind of square so he’s open to be hit. He kind of lunges forward and he’s pretty dangerous in the pocket. At range he can kick a little bit.
I just don’t think Leal is a stand out in terms of volume, and outside of big shots, I don’t think he will clearly be winning rounds. I’ve seen him wrestle a tiny bit but that’s not his primary path to victory.
I haven’t seen a ton of defensive wrestling from Leal, which is the more important aspect considering his matchup against Fakhretdinov. Leal was sprawling and pummeling well against Cooper, and when he was taken down I saw him scramble up. If I had to guess, Leal is competent defensively, but I doubt he can withstand a higher pedigree of wrestler.
Fakhretdinov is 23-2 professionally at age 33, and he’s earned 11 wins by knockout and seven wins by submission. He earned his contract after knocking out Eric Spicely in 55 seconds in front of Dana White on the regional scene.
Since entering the UFC, Fakhretdinov has won four fights with one draw, and he’s coming off a split decision victory over Nicolas Dalby.
Fakhretdinov is a primary wrestler who has averaged 4.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at 5, 7 and 5 takedowns landed in three of his UFC wins.
His best win arguably came against Bryan Battle, who has looked tremendous as of late. Fakhretdinov was able to take him down seven times and earn 14 minutes of control in the 15 minute affair, which is extremely impressive. He also has a first-minute KO against Kevin Lee which shows some pop in his hands.
However, his two most recent fights are cause for concern.
Against Zaleski, Fakhretdinov got off to a hot start and knocked Zaleski down, nearly finishing him in round one. He had mild success in round two but was stuffed on 3/4 takedown attempts.
In round three, Fakhretdinov was tired, and he couldn’t land takedowns. Zaleski was able to hurt him and beat him up badly in the final minutes of the fight, earning a 10-8 to seal a draw.
More recently, it was a bit of the same against Nicolas Dalby. Fakhretdinov looked decent early, but lost the second round and had to grind his way to a competitive final few minutes to take a split decision.
It’s an ugly pattern because Fakhretdinov essentially looks vulnerable when he’s not earning easy control. While I still think he’s a very legit wrestler and will have success against most opponents early, I am pretty concerned about his extended cardio and I think it could lead to future losses.
That’s where Leal is most likely to succeed. I doubt Leal is good enough to stuff every takedown from the get go. Fakhretdinov may even be able to hurt him on the feet.
But if Leal is scrambling up and pressuring Fakhretdinov, I could see Fakhretdinov getting tired. If Leal is still standing by round three, he will pressure, and it’s possible he could land some damaging shots and knock Fakhretdinov out.
Without having a major sample on defensive wrestling, I’ll just assume Fakhretdinov’s grappling is good enough to have some early success and carry him to a victory. But there seems to be a flaw in his style and Leal has won enough decisions that I think he at least carries a path to victory in surviving and boxing.
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On DraftKings, Fakhretdinov is yet another viable target given his wrestling style.
In his wins, Fakhretdinov has scored 100, 130, 130 and 109 which is extremely impressive, and three of those came in decisions.
In that sense alone, you could argue Fakhretdinov is an elite play on this slate, and in a win, he could realistically compete for the optimal lineup. He is only +260 to win ITD in this matchup which is one drawback, but again it hasn’t mattered from a DK standpoint.
I don’t think Leal will be held down for 14 minutes, so if Fakhretdinov does win, I think several takedowns are in play. I’m not confident he’ll easily hit a ceiling and I’m pretty concerned he’ll slow down late, but the takedowns should be there for him in a win.
At 8.9k, Fakhretdinov is a great play. There are about half a dozen other great plays in this range though, including some grapplers and the championship fights, so Fakhretdinov is not a must.
I also think there’s a chance he gets overlooked as the public will probably feel more safe with those championship fights, and maybe Orolbai.
I definitely have concerns for Fakhretdinov but again, his style leads to upside on DK so I think having mild exposure at least makes sense, and having moderate exposure is a pretty solid strategy as well.
Leal does interest me a little bit at 7.3k, as one of the options below the Holloway tier who has viability.
The primary concern with Leal is that he will carry no floor. He could get taken down and held down, and just not score any points. That’s probably what happens to a degree if he loses.
And even in a win, Leal could be held down early and score no points in round one, for example. A late TKO comeback may not allow him to reach a ceiling.
I still think there’s viability with it as a boxer against an opponent who’s now shown multiple times that he will slow down and can be vulnerable. There could be leverage on Leal as well.
He’s only +365 to win ITD and definitely not a priority of mine. Only a low-end secondary option. But at this price point, I’d be willing to sprinkle in Leal and I like him more than the options in the 6k range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fakhretdinov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)