Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Fight Odds: Rountree -110, Hill -106
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Rountree 8.4k, Hill 7.8k
Weight Class: 205
Recent light heavyweight title challengers Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. will square off on Saturday in a potential No. 1 Contender matchup.
I guess Hill was the official champion at one point, when he defeated Glover Teixeira to earn the belt back in 2023. He had to immediately give it up due to injury and then got knocked out by Alex Pereira in just three minutes when he returned in 2024.
More recently, Hill got knocked out again by Jiri Prochazka in the third round, so he desperately needs a victory and to prove to the world that he can still compete at the top of this LHW division.
Rountree is coming off a brutal beating by Pereira for the belt in late 2024, and was officially stopped in the fourth round.
Rountree wasn’t necessarily expected to compete though, and he arguably won two of the first four rounds, hurting Pereira on a couple of occasions. It was a victory for him in that regard, and it was cool to see him gain a lot of respect from the public, despite the loss.
That respect has continued as he’s now a favorite over Hill in this main event, although I’m skeptical that’s correct.
The biggest issue I have with Hill currently is that his mouth doesn’t match his actions. He was talking a lot of shit heading into that fight against Pereira and showed nothing, and then he was talking a lot of shit in hindsight as well. He looked better against Prochazka but still lost. I really have no problem with shit talking, but without strong performances inside the Octagon, it matters not.
Rountree on the other hand is as calm and respectful as can be. He grew up being bullied and overweight, and completely transformed his life by getting into Mixed Martial Arts.
He’s made a career resurgence since training in Thailand and working on his muay-thai. I would now consider him a semi-dangerous and semi-technical striker, with knockout power and a big heart.
I’m still not particularly high on Rountree as a talent, I think he’s likely destined to hang around the outskirts of the rankings, and nothing more.
He’s landing 3.73 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.51 per minute with a 48 percent striking defense. Those are really poor ratios.
He’s won by first-round KO four times in the UFC and that will probably be his best path to victory moving forward. It’s not that he cannot fight for an extended period, but he simply doesn’t throw enough volume and he gets hit a lot more than he lands strikes, which is a recipe to lose.
In hindsight, as an example, he had a couple of good rounds against Pereira but was outstruck in total 127 to 61. He has a recent win over Dustin Jacoby where he was outstruck 120 to 85. He’s never landed more than 85 sig. strikes in a fight before.
Additionally, Rountree has been extremely weak on the mat historically, and at best, it’s a place he will try to avoid and survive. He lands 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 58 percent, which is bad. He hasn’t had to defend many takedowns recently though which is a benefit to being in this division.
Jamahal Hill has more upside as a talent in my mind, because he’s a fairly decent boxer who can fight at a high pace.
Hill lands 7.05 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.02 per minute with a 45 percent defensive rate. The defensive side is where I have the biggest concerns.
He still famously beat Glover Teixeira while landing 225 sig. strikes in an incredibly high-paced war. That might be an outlier but he even landed 81 in 2.5 rounds against Prochazka which would still be close to Rountree’s career high.
Hill isn’t super well-rounded and is mostly reliant on his hands, but his hands are good. He has power and he’s pretty technical. He’s not an elite striker but he’s competent and with his volume, he can win rounds and carry some knockout equity.
Hill has actually never landed a takedown himself either, but his submission grappling is less horrid than Rountree’s. He at least survived some exchanges with Teixeira, though he was submitted by Paul Craig back in 2021.
Now, my concern is simply defense. He’s been hurt and KOd in back-to-back fights and the defensive numbers look bad. He’ll likely continue to get hurt.
I do want to be fair in that Pereira and Prochazka are big, powerful fighters. Rountree is less big, and Hill will carry a few inches of height and reach on him which should play into Hill’s benefit.
This feels like a fairly straightforward matchup to me. Neither guy has landed a takedown in the UFC so we can’t project any grappling. Of the two, I’d favor Hill there, but I still don’t expect to see any grappling exchanges.
On the feet, Hill throws at a much higher pace, and his height and reach should give him an advantage per minute here. Rountree is going to fight at a slower pace, and throw more single shots.
I think Rountree is likely the better kicker, and it would be smart of him to attack Hill’s legs. He also has enough power to hurt Hill, and a knockout is possible.
I just think Hill moves better on the outside and has a higher floor of head strikes given his boxing style. Rountree still defends at less than 50 percent, so both guys should land here. Of the two, Hill is very likely to throw and land more, especially over 25 minutes.
I feel comfortable favoring Hill in this spot, although there’s definitely some variance given power and durability questions. Plus, rounds could still be competitive so it’s not as if I favor him massively.
Rountree just doesn’t throw enough on a per round basis though and he’s still liable to get hurt himself. I think the most likely outcome is that we get a fun, semi-competitive fight that Hill wins on boxing and pacing.
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On DraftKings, my big fear regarding this matchup is that neither fighter has landed a takedown in their respective UFC career.
So without wrestling equity, we most likely need a knockout for either side to hit a ceiling. And although I do think that’s possible, I’m far from convinced we get an early finish. The fight is officially lined at -325 to end inside the distance which is decent.
On the Rountree side, he definitely needs a knockout. I’d probably project him for 80-100 sig. strikes landed in 25 minutes, which projects to 70 points or so in a decision. Or less.
In theory he could land more, but even with 120 sig. strikes, that’s only 78 DK points without any extracurriculars. And I don’t see much potential for those. He really needs a knockout.
The good news is that he’s -105 to win ITD, which is very strong. And at 8.4k, Rountree can certainly exceed value and contend for the optimal with an early knockout win.
Simply due to variance, and Hill’s recent KO losses, I think Rountree is a viable tournament target. But I only think he’s a secondary target, who is largely boom or bust, and I expect him to be overowned this week.
I really don’t consider him a favorite in this matchup, and especially not a big favorite. Sure he has some KO equity but if he’s going to be 35+ percent owned, I’m not sure I’d want to match that.
Hill is priced at 7.8k and I’m hoping will be underowned due to recent losses.
He’s also boom or bust and carries no real wrestling equity, so there are bust concerns on this side as well. However, the difference is that in a decision, I would expect Hill to land 120 or so significant strikes, and I think he has upside for 150+. That gives him a floor of about 10x DK value, with a shot at 90+ even in a decision win.
Plus, he’s +210 to win ITD, which still shows finishing equity. I personally don’t think there should be a real gap between his ITD and Routnree’s when you factor in the striking rate should favor Hill, potentially significantly. Rountree has still been knocked out himself.
You can choose to play this fight a bunch of different ways, but I just don’t see a world where I end up heavy on Rountree. Having secondary or near-field exposure is fine, but I don’t love betting on a quick KO here.
I’m much more willing to play Hill even though it could still burn me. He could get hurt and lose. He just has a much better chance to exceed value in a decision and I like his metrics more. I also think he has knockout equity and can still exceed 100 points in a ceiling case.
I think he’s closer to being a primary target of the two, especially if it looks like the field will be higher on the Rountree side. You don’t have to be overweight but I certainly will lean toward rostering Hill of the two.
Coming in lighter than the public on both sides is also an option, hoping the fight extends. There’s obviously KO risk on both sides so it may not be a super smart strategy, but I could easily see the fight entering the 3rd or 4th round, in which case a mid-round KO or decision may not be enough for either fighter to reach 100 points.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Fight Odds: Bahamondes -126, Fiziev +108
Odds to Finish: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Bahamondes 8.2k, Fiziev 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
In the co-main event of the evening, we have a banger between Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes.
Rafael Fiziev comes from an extensive Muay Thai background. He is a skilled and explosive striker, especially with his kicking game to the body and to the legs. He can also fight out of both stances.
Fiziev doesn’t grapple much and only lands 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t really expect offensive grappling to ever be a consistent way for him to win fights, which is a negative, as it limits his ways to win fights. However, he defends takedowns at a stellar 90 percent which is a positive as Fiziev can generally manufacture striking fights where he thrives.
It is funny that Fiziev’s striking ratios are actually not very good. He lands 4.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.95 in return, and only defends strikes at 48 percent. So he can be hit.
I do think Fiziev hits hard from a strike per strike basis though, and will continue to win fights if he is just in the general ballpark of his opponent’s strike count. So he will probably continue to outperform his striking metrics as he just generally hits harder than his opponents.
I do worry about Fiziev’s cardio. He is extremely explosive early but he has slowed down in many three round fights that I have seen him in, even dropping round three to Marc Diakiese and Bobby Green. I don’t think Fiziev’s cardio is awful or anything, but it is definitely not a strength of his.
Lastly, I do worry about Fiziev’s durability a bit. He was finished by Magomed Mustafaev in round one and he was also hurt by Bobby Green to a degree in round three. Again, I don’t think his durability is awful or anything and maybe I am overreacting, but striking is a high-variance sport and he will always be at risk to get hurt.
Also, Fiziev had been out for a very long time. He injured his knee against Gamrot in September of 2023 and then fought a few months ago on short notice against Justin Gaethje. I honestly thought he looked awful in that matchup vs Gaethje. He gassed after a round and just didn’t look nearly as good pre-injury. I give him a bit of a pass as the fight was on short notice. So maybe Fiziev will look better on a full training camp. I still have my concerns though and we may have honestly seen the best of Fiziev. There is a legitimate chance he is past his prime.
Fiziev will be taking on UFC veteran Ignacio Bahamondes. Ignacio is very much a striker. He has never landed a takedown in the UFC and seems to have no interest in grappling. He just wants to strike. He landed a viral knockout in his matchup against Roosevelt Roberts a few years back. It was a cool one. He also is coming off a huge knockout win at UFC Noche against Manuel Torres. I backed him in that fight and he was the underdog so it was good to see him get the win. Most recently, he submitted Jalin Turner in round one.
Ignacio is long for the division. He is 6’3” and has a 75” reach. He has a lot of offense and diversity in his strikes. He will throw straight punches, hooks, kicks, elbows, knees. I like his offense. He lands 7.09 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.36 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. I think his striking is solid and he can definitely win fights at this level with it. He keeps up a heavy pace and has good cardio as well.
I think my main criticism for Ignacio’s striking is that he is hittable to a degree. He absorbs 4.36 significant strikes per minute which is a lot. So he can be a victim of high variance moments on the feet even if he is better than his opponents. He does seem to be a tough kid though and has never been knocked out in his career. You saw him get hurt in his most recent loss against Klein though which just echoes my point that he can get tagged.
Ignacio’s defensive wrestling seems decent. He currently defends takedowns at 85 percent. He stopped all 12 takedowns attempted by Roberts. He also defended all five takedowns in his contender series fight. It seems decent, but he was taken down three times against Klein and controlled for six minutes. I do think he was hurt a bit in that fight which contributed to Klein’s wrestling success. Still though, I will be a bit skeptical of Ignacio’s defensive wrestling going forward.
As far as this matchup goes, I generally think these guys will strike as Ignacio never wrestles and Fiziev doesn’t really either. Both guys also have strong TDD.
On the feet, I think this is very competitive and I think a close line makes sense.
I think Fiziev will have success early. I think he is more explosive than Bahamondes. We have seen Bahomndes struggle with power in the past against Klein and I do think Fiziev can tag Bahamondes early. I probably favor Fiziev to win round one.
However, I do think Bahamondes has more volume and way better cardio. I think Bahamondes could really take this fight over in round three. So the middle of this fight will be important. Bahamondes is also so much bigger than Fiziev. He has a 7-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage here which could really help him.
I do think I am going to pick Bahamondes just because Fiziev tires and looked bad against Gaethje. If prime Fiziev shows up then Fiziev can surely win though. This just seems like a competitive striking fight where Fiziev’s current form is crucial in determining who should be favored.
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On DraftKings, this fight feels fairly boom or bust to me and I’m not sure I want to make it a priority.
It’s difficult though because both sides have finishing upside. Bahamondes has scored 95, 126 and 116 in his last three wins and he’s the type of fighter I’d typically want to target in brawls.
However, it will just be more difficult for him to finish Fiziev than past opponents. He’s only +335 to win ITD which is pretty poor. Without a finish, I don’t think Bahamondes easily exceeds value at 8.2k.
The good news with Bahamondes is that he can throw a lot of volume though. Landing 100 sig. strikes is very much on the table. That’s only 70 DK points in a decision win though.
Fiziev has been knocked down in 2/4 UFC losses, so I don’t completely hate Bahamondes. But I only consider him a secondary target because even in a high-paced decision, he is not likely to exceed value at the price tag.
Fiziev is priced at 8k and actually has a much better ITD line on paper at +265. I think that’s kind of odd personally and I’d expect the gap between the two to close.
Regardless, Fiziev is pretty boom or bust as well. We’re not projecting him for many takedowns and he’s not as much of a volume striker. The same rules apply though in that even with 100 sig. strikes, he’s not likely to exceed 10x. He needs a knockout.
Fiziev is a dangerous guy and Bahamondes has been hurt before, so it’s not impossible by any stretch. It’s just not something I’d want to bet on.
My guess is despite the ITD marks, Bahamondes will be higher owned here due to career trajectory and box scores. I honestly prefer him of the two as well. With a larger portfolio, a sprinkle of each makes sense.
With a more limited portfolio, I’d probably lean toward being light on the fight and hoping it goes the distance, which it’s projected to at -165. If that occurs, I don’t think either fighter will be an optimal standout.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bahamondes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Fight Odds: Blaydes -229, Kuniev +192
Odds to Finish: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Blaydes 9.1k, Kuniev 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Curtis Blaydes is entering his 10th year on the roster and is looking to rebound off an interim title loss to Tom Aspinall back in July – he’s 13-5 in the UFC and 18-5 as a pro. Rizvan Kuniev’s a two-time Contender Series alum who didn’t earn a contract back in 2021 despite a winning effort, but was able to secure one with a 1st round finish back in August. He’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday and is 13-2-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Blaydes is a wrestler by base but has always had underrated striking.
Even with a lot of wrestling in his fights, he still lands 3.5 SLpM at 50% which is right around the divisional average. So, he’s not a pace machine standing but has tight straight shots, complemented with nasty elbows.
Defensively, he’s generally been decent exchange to exchange, only absorbing 1.9 SApM at 58%. However, he’s been buzzed a handful of times now.
There was some hesitancy in the Lewis fight as he shot from way too far out and got KO’d with an upper cut as a result. He was technically finished twice by Ngannou but once was via doctor stoppage. Pavlovich obviously iced him, but Blaydes had some clean connections in there prior to the KO and he was recently put down early by Aspinall.
So, while Blaydes’ durability is somewhat concerning, he’s only been stopped by four of the hardest hitters in the division.
His distance strike ratio isn’t great though but positive nonetheless at +0.2/minute. But he defends distance strikes at 63% which is also sound for a base wrestler.
He stood and struck with Rozenstruik much more than he needed to in that fight but nonetheless, only ate 18 strikes over nine minutes at distance with a pretty big hitter.
Ultimately, I don’t think Blaydes gets enough credit for his striking, but he’s obviously going to run into issues against faster, more explosive parties.
Kuniev comes from a wushu-sanda background where he’s won multiple world championships in the discipline. You can see the sanda in his game a bit as despite being a burly heavyweight, he’s relatively light on his feet and will look to dart in and out of the pocket. Although, he’s relatively linear in his approach where you don’t see much lateral movement from him.
But given the game he plays, he’s not a particularly high volume striker minute to minute and is more so looking to explode into his opponents with overhands, knees and kicks.
Six of his 12 pro wins have come via KO/TKO but he’s not a huge hitter by heavyweight standards, with most of them coming on the ground.
Defensively, he hasn’t faced a ton of volume back his way but opponents have had flurrying pockets of success on him, most notably in his first DWCS fight and against Ferreira in the PFL.
His head does stay on the center line in the pocket so he’s a guy that’s probably due to get put down one of these days, but he appears durable as are most of the Dagestani fighters, and has never been finished in his pro career.
Overall, I’d like a bigger sample of Kuniev at space but he’s a decent striker by heavyweight standards.
How it plays out: Luckily for Blaydes, he’s not getting a murderous power puncher here in Kuniev. But I still think Kuniev is a capable distance striker and Blaydes isn’t exactly a pace machine, so I’d assume exchanges will be competitive. I do prefer the straighter shots of Blaydes in comparison to all the looping stuff from Kuniev.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Blaydes comes from a collegiate wrestling background and has been one of the better wrestlers in the division’s history.
He lands 5.7 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 53% — you’re probably not going to see better wrestling metrics than that, especially over a 10 year sample size.
But what needs to be noted in the ability to land that many TDs is that Blaydes has struggled with ground control at times. However, he stays on guys and is a blanket that is very hard to get off of, even against the fence.
But a really telling stat to display the caliber of wrestler that Blaydes is that he’s out controlling his opponents at a 10:1 ratio which is also over half of his overall UFC fight time. Also, when he decides to open up in the guard, he’s got some nasty GNP.
The knock on Blaydes here is that he really doesn’t possess any submission acumen or significant passing ability outside of working to half guard. With that, he can be “lay and pray” at times.
Defensively, we haven’t had much to go on over the years with Blaydes outside of a couple fights years ago.
But in his fight against Almeida, he got absolutely ragdolled, getting taken down nine times on 13 attempts and controlled for essentially the entire 1st round. Blaydes was able to get him out early in the 2nd though with elbows against the fence. Almeida’s also one of the better floor players in the division so losing ground exchanges at face value wasn’t the worst look, it’s more so how he got tossed around that I found alarming. Blaydes made him work though and all that energy Almeida expended gassed him out.
Overall though, Blaydes is solid on the ground and a tough style matchup for 99% of the division. His gun-shy nature against Lewis and Pavlovich ultimately getting him killed was concerning though.
I’m unsure of Kuniev’s floor credentials but sanda is a martial art that encompasses grappling and being from Dagestan, I’d assume he’s got some sambo experience as well. He’s generally found wrestling success in most of his fights.
I’ve seen him chain attacks together well at times, but also struggle to secure in others where multiple fights of his have turned cage pushy where he’s just holding his opponent against the fence not doing much.
On the ground, his control has generally been good and he has looked to open up with ground strikes in certain spots, but has been more lay and pray in others – it’s also under the context that he’s generally fought poor wrestlers though.
However, I have seen him get swept twice but he’s been able to either get back on top or look to re-wrestle back up.
He only has three submission wins with the last one coming back in 2022 with a standing guillotine, so he doesn’t appear to be a very adept submission grappler.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much but has stuffed the handful of attempts that have come his way – as noted, he’s worked up off his back quickly in the instances we’ve seen him on the bottom.
Overall, Kuniev isn’t a “powerhouse” wrestler but an above average one by heavyweight standards who I’d project to realize ground success in the UFC depending on the opponent.
How it plays out: The floor is somewhat difficult to analyze just because we don’t have a large sample of either having to defensively wrestle. The Almeida fight is obviously concerning for Blaydes but Blaydes is objectively the best wrestler that Kuniev’s fought by a country mile. I don’t think Kuniev has the cardio to outwrestle Blaydes over an extended period of time under resistance and based on pure meritocracy, I’d favor Blaydes to get the better of the overall exchanges.
Kuniev seems like a decent heavyweight to me but he’s getting a gigantic step up in competition here against a perennial top 10 guy in Blaydes. Kuniev’s beating a bunch of bums in Russia and then two Brazilian guys on DWCS who he was a huge favorite over. Ferreira was a good win in PFL but Ferreira also can’t wrestle and Kuniev popped for steroids. It was pretty clear he was on something in that fight too because his body transformation was insane where he’s looked legitimately fat in every other fight – he was fat again on DWCS in August. It’s kind of a weird matchup to analyze stylistically but Blaydes should be the better guy.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think this is a simple fight to analyze and I’m pretty nervous about targeting both sides.
For starters, I think Kuniev is pretty live to win. Luke analyzed the matchup well but ultimately, Kuniev has tools to compete with Blaydes at distance where Blaydes rates out a bit better technically, but much worse from a durability sense.
The pure wrestling may also go to Blaydes but he isn’t a lock to even attempt takedowns, and I’m pretty skeptical that he can easily hold Kuniev down. Kuniev may also find pockets of wrestling success but I don’t think he can control Blaydes either.
So Blaydes is priced up to 9.1k here and I’m leaning toward not making him a priority this week.
I’ve been quite heavy on Blaydes in the past and I love to target him when he can dominate the wrestling exchanges. When that happens, his ceiling is tremendous and we’ve seen him smash on DK as a result, with wins of 134, 135 and 173.
It would be reasonable to include Blaydes in your portfolio simply based on the idea that wrestling is a possibility. With nothing certain in this range, Blaydes at least has paths to a ceiling that others may not.
However, Blaydes has only taken down one of his past seven opponents.. He is simply not wrestling at a high rate, and even if he does here, I don’t think it’s a guarantee he can find success. Without wrestling, what are you betting on? For Blaydes to win by knockout?
Sure, that’s possible too, but Blaydes has been brutally KOd several times while Kuniev has never been knocked out. There’s still some upside there but it feels very boom or bust, and Blaydes isn’t a fighter I believe is trustworthy given his durability and Fight IQ.
He still rates out OK here with a +115 ITD line. If in theory he is the better boxer, he can land and maybe hurt Kuniev. I’m not ruling that outcome out. Blaydes also only has one knockdown in his last 14 fights, so again, how likely is it exactly?
Just given his historic ceiling, Blaydes is in play by default, but I do think others are safer with grappling upside, and I’m a little worried Blaydes comes in higher owned than he deserves to be based on the matchup.
Kuniev at 7.1k looks like a sneaky underdog target to me though not one I will load up on.
The reason I won’t load up is because I don’t think Kuniev has an easy path to domination on the mat, nor on the feet. He’s not a high volume striker or wrestler and Blaydes is pretty good in all areas.
I still think there’s a reasonable chance the fight is competitive. Kuniev can land a takedown or two, and I think he has sneaky knockout upside. Blaydes does not react to shots well and he’s been knocked out a bunch of times. Yes, by big hitters, but I’m not sure it matters over the long run if your body simply doesn’t hold up.
Kuniev is only +385 to win ITD which is probably fair. I don’t think he’s a real KO artist and I’m not going to pick him to win ITD. This might just be an ugly, slow fight with a lot of cage pushing. So you don’t need to prioritize Kuniev.
But this is HW and they might box. In that situation, I’d want some exposure to Kuniev who I do think can hurt Blaydes. I highly doubt he’ll be popular so he also works as a salary saver and semi-contrarian target in this bottom end.
There’s a lot of variance at HW and there’s no reason to love Kuniev, but I think he’s a bit undervalued and a bit sneaky based on the weaknesses Blaydes has shown historically, and I don’t mind some low-end shares personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blaydes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Fight Odds: Orolbai -155, Musayev +132
Odds to Finish: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Orolbai 8.5k, Musayev 7.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Myktybek Orolbai bypassed the Contender Series back in 2023 after a successful 3-fight stint in the LFA. He’s proven to be a solid addition to the UFC 155 lb. roster but will be looking to get back in the win column after dropping a decision in an absolute war to Mateusz Rebecki back in October – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 13-2-1 as a pro. Tofiq Musayev is an Azerbaijani national who will be making his UFC debut on Saturday after spending the last six years fighting in the RIZIN and Bellator promotions – he’s 22-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Orolbai’s standup falls more into the eastern Euro coast type of style.
He’s linear, a little light on the feet and largely throws in single or two shot combos – lead hook, body kick, overhand, etc. So, he’s not a guy who’s going to go out and push a particularly high striking pace in a vacuum, but he has picked his shots well and shown some power to boot in hurting four of his last five opponents – the last guy he KO’d was with a pretty brutal uppercut back in LFA.
His fight prior against Elizario was largely pretty competitive through the early going with both guys trading mid-range shots – he started to find a better rhythm in the 2nd though and caught him. With that being said, the last two regional guys he fought were terrible – he closed a -350 against Elizario and -1250 against Charles.
It was his 1st pro loss to Satuev back in ACA where he got outstruck but not by a crazy margin – not a bad loss though as Satuev is still doing his thing over in Russia and that fight was three years ago. In the UFC, Medic landed some big shots on him early, but the fight was barely in space.
Against Brenner, the distance strikes were close and 35 to 32 in favor of Brenner, but Orolbai hurt Brenner badly on three separate occasions, ultimately winning him the striking.
Most recently, he got into a war with Rebecki where he officially outlanded Rebecki 60-54 at distance – both guys hurt each other but Rebecki got the better of the overall exchanges and broke Orolbai’s orbital early in the fight.
Overall, Orolbai’s stand up is kind of “clunky” to be honest but it can be really effective when he’s able to pressure and head the cage off. However, I still have some serious reservations with him when he fights a more capable range striker, and we now know he’s not incapable of losing a dirtier fight – the guy’s proven his toughness though.
Musayev comes from a striking background where he competed in multiple disciplines throughout his youth before moving over to MMA – karate, pankration, kung-fu, taekwondo and sanda.
In MMA, you can definitely see some of his traditional martial arts roots in his striking style as he’s pretty light on his feet, has good footwork, will switch stances, and possesses solid kicks and entry shots.
He’s not the highest volume guy in the world given some of his outside-mid range components, but he’s also generally controlled the exchanges well in his fights.
Where Musayev particularly excels though are in his blitzes – he’s a very quick guy that enters the pocket well, has a ton of power and excellent finishing instincts with 18 of his 22 pros wins coming via KO/TKO. Even in his lone two decision wins, he was able to produce bigger moments against both Cruickshank and Pitbull.
Defensively, he’s generally been good for the most part given the range game he plays, but he can be susceptible to singular shots from opponents at times – he’s shown to have a good chin as well.
He’s only been finished once with strikes which was his last pro loss to a talented Russian in Shabliy where the sequence was kind of odd – Musayev ate a front kick to the body but it came down and hit him low – the ref deemed it a legal strike resulting in the official result, so he’s never been “conventionally” KO’d.
Overall, Musayev is a pretty talented striker who opponents don’t want to be eating flush shots from but he also has a style that could lead to tighter margins on minutes against more adept strikers, just given volume and sequencing.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys are at relative size parity so not much to note there – Orolbai will have a slight 2” reach edge. There are some similar elements to the stand up of both guys but I ultimately favor Musayev on the feet as I feel he’s better defensively, has more raw KO power and should realize a decided speed advantage. While Orolbai has proven to be a tough guy, his linear striking style could get him in a lot of trouble with a guy like Musayev, and it’s not as if we haven’t seen Orolbai get cracked before. Orolbai getting hit clean the way he was against Rebecki is especially concerning here, considering Rebecki is 5’7” and only has a 66” reach. With all that being said, I still wouldn’t anticipate Musayev to run away on volume here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Orolbai’s official background but it appears he comes from more of a floor base, hailing from eastern Europe. He also trains over at Team Alpha Male now in California, which is traditionally known to be a wrestling based gym.
I don’t think his entries are anything world class and opponents can work up under him at times, but he does a good job of riding his opponents and staying on them. I wouldn’t say he’s a “lay and prayer” but I also wouldn’t say he’s a super proactive passer either – he definitely takes his time which I think is actually a good thing.
He has four submissions early on in his career, but they have come against guys with no pro wins so take that for what you will. I did see him get reversed one time regionally, but he was able to get out of the position quickly to get right back on offense.
In the UFC, he landed seven TDs on Medic and eventually found a neck crank in the 2nd round. Against Brenner, he largely dominated through the first couple rounds, but he got tired and was reversed a few times by Brenner where he conceded some minutes on the bottom. He also lost a point for a cage grab and was taken down three times in the 3rd round, giving up some bad positions. In fairness, Brenner in Round 3 is kind of a mythical creature as he always seems to catch a second wind and gas his opponents. Orolbai is lucky he knocked Brenner down at the bell though because if he didn’t, the fight probably would have been a draw with his point deduction.
Most recently, a TD in round two helped him secure the round but the late TDs coupled with a knockdown from Rebecki lost him that fight, in addition to supplemental GNP – he was still able to reverse though and get some top time himself.
Overall, I think Orolbai’s more of an “attritional brute” in comparison to being some phenomenal technical wrestler or jiu-jitsu player. But he’s very physically strong and persistent with the game he plays, making him a tough out in this realm if opponents don’t come proper.
Despite having a healthy tape sample of Musayev, there isn’t a ton to say with him on the ground.
As noted, he’s a striker by base so he’s not a guy who’s really looking to wrestle with much regularity although he has mixed TDs into a handful of his fights – but if he’s on top, it’s usually from him hurting his opponents.
He also only has two submission wins of his 22 pro victories, which all date back over a decade ago early on in his career, so not much to report there.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on a ton either but in the limited sequences he has, he’s generally shown good TDD components.
The few times he’s been taken down it’s been more reactionary based on his entries, but he’s done a good job of working back to the feet.
He has been submitted in three of his five losses but two of those also date to early in his career, and the most recent one came against De Souza who got him in a triangle after Musayev shut a back take down and he pulled guard – De Souza’s a very high level black belt for context though.
Overall, given the sample, it’s tough to make any super definitive claims with Musayev as a floor commodity but the high level insights are that he’s not a guy that projects for much offensive upside and is a competent defensive wrestler.
How it plays out: This is where Orolbai projects to have the advantage but as noted, Musayev hasn’t ever been comprehensively outwrestled before so it leaves a pretty tough benchmarking issue. So, there’s some conjecture here but where I would see Orolbai success opening up more is in an extended fight, if Musayev is being forced to repeatedly stuff shots because I could see him slowing down under that. But I don’t think it will be easy for Orolbai to land TDs early in this fight and keep Musayev down at least.
This is a low key sneaky good card that’s got some quality fights on it but this one is my personal main event. Despite Orolbai coming up short last time out, he’s a guy I’m still pretty high on because he’s got a lot of positive attributes to his game that will make him a tough out for many guys in this division. On the flip side, Musayev isn’t a fighter that’s new to me as a long time viewer of both Bellator and RIZIN, where I’m happy to see him in the UFC because he deserves to be here. I’ve honestly gone back and forth on this one because I can see the merit to both guys but I’m going to go with Musayev for the slight upset because he’s got more big moment/early finish upside, and I think he also has the TDD to muzzle Orolbai at least in the early goings of this fight. If this fight goes to the scorecards, round two will probably be the swing round because I like Musayev to win round one and Orolbai to win round three.
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On DraftKings, my primary fear is that both guys are quite high-level and despite the upside for both, we could see them neutralize each other.
This is arguably the highest level matchup on the slate and I agree with Luke, I’m very interested to watch it play out.
Orolbai is priced at 8.5k and he definitely carries upside in his fantasy profile. He’s scored 123 and 108 in his two UFC wins, and he’s attempted 10, 17 and 5 takedowns in three fights.
The issue is what we saw in his last fight. Against a more competent defensive opponent, Orolbai’s wrestling upside is more limited, and therefore fights are more likely to be competitive. Musayev is very experienced and pretty highly skilled, and I’m fairly worried about a similar result.
Still, if Orolbai does win, takedowns are probably involved. At 8.5k, he has a reasonable chance to exceed value regardless.
Orolbai is also +190 to win ITD which is decent, but not impeccable. I’m honestly nervous that this is going to be a difficult matchup for him and that he might lose. In that, I’m hesitant to label him as a great target.
I suppose I still want to be invested in Orolbai in some regard because he has potential to shoot double digit takedowns. I really have no confidence he will land many or dominate with control, or finish the fight. But I could see him scoring 80-90 with a touch of upside even in a competitive decision. It’s enough to label him a secondary target at this price tag but I’d be nervous to be much overweight.
Musayev at 7.7k interests me some as well.
I think he carries some knockout upside, and he should have a speed advantage early in the fight. He’s a powerful enough striker and from the defensive wrestling looks I’ve seen, he’s competent there. He could hurt Orolbai and is +190 to win ITD.
I wouldn’t necessarily bet on a knockout but Orolbai has been hurt in recent fights and isn’t the most defensively sound guy.
Furthermore, Orolbai is defending takedowns at 40 percent. I don’t think Musayev wrestles with urgency but I wouldn’t be shocked if he mixed in a takedown or two. Maybe that’s wishful thinking but Orolbai hasn’t proven to have great first-layer defense, even though his scrambling and get-ups are good.
I don’t love a lot of underdogs this week, and Musayev is simply one possibility. At 7.7k, he carries some finishing equity and some win equity. I’m not going to target him heavily per say but as an unknown to the UFC audience, he could be a bit overlooked and I wouldn’t mind being slightly ahead of the market.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Orolbai by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta
Fight Odds: Sadykhov -472, Motta +369
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Sadykhov 9.4k, Motta 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent action fight here in the lightweight division between Nazim Sadykhov and Nikolas Motta.
Sadykhov is 9-1 professionally and fights out of Ray Longo’s gym. Sadykhov booked his ticket to the UFC with a third round knockout in his Contender Series bout. He is now 3-0-1 in the UFC with his first win coming by a cut TKO against Evan Elder in a fight he was actually down on the scorecards. He then finished Terrance McKinney with a second round submission.
Sadykhov had a draw against Viacheslav Borschev in a fight that generally took place on the feet. In rounds 1 and 3, Sadykhov lost both rounds pretty cleanly as Borschev was just a slicker striker. In round 2, Sadykhov obtained a 10-8 round as he hurt Borschev badly and beat the crap out of him, and nearly stopped him for most of the round. The fight basically showed that Sadykhov is a dangerous striker, but he can drop rounds by getting out skilled. Honestly that same thing showed in his most recent win against Ismael Bonfim. Bonfim was cleanly winning round 1 and then Sadykhov landed a big shot and forced a doctor stoppage.
I mostly consider Sadykhov a power striker who has a good straight left hand, standing out of the southpaw stance. He is a little low volume on the feet at times. However, he is physical and hits hard. He can walk down opponents and hurt them which makes up for his low volume at times. He is almost always the aggressor, and he seems very tough and has good cardio. So he gives himself a full fight to hurt his opponents.
I think my biggest concern with Sadykhov is his defense. He is defending strikes at 48 percent which is not good. He was outlanded by Elder 70-64 in significant strikes. He was also outlanded by Borschev 143-94 in significant strikes. It still isn’t like Sadykhov is getting teed off on and is a big time threat to get knocked out.
I am not as worried about Sadykhov’s striking defense in the sense that he will be knocked out a lot. He actually seems very durable. He is just aggressive which allows his opponents to land point scoring shots and get ahead on the scorecards. I am just concerned that we will keep seeing him lose the strike total battles against skilled strikers, which will borderline make him knockout or bust in those types of matchups.
Sadykhov is capable of landing takedowns here and there, but I don’t consider him a great wrestler or anything. He does have decent defensive wrestling with a powerful base and can turn defensive wrestling / sprawls into top time of his own. He will also look to mix in ground-and-pound.
Sadykhov will be taking on Nikolas Motta. Motta is now 3-2 in the UFC with his most recent win coming against Maheshate.
Motta is a striker. Most of Motta’s wins come by knockout and he also has a few striking based decisions. Motta’s main weapons are his speed, athleticism, and ability to time hard hooks in the pocket. He is somewhat crafty with his hooks. He can land them on the counter or by springing into the pocket himself. He will also throw in some knees and kicks. However, he is generally looking to just throw his hooks / punches.
He is not interested in offensive wrestling at all and is just looking to strike. He has never landed a takedown in the UFC. He can fight fine for three rounds. He defends takedowns at a decent 82 percent but Trey Ogden showed you can beat him on the mat.
Motta has a lot of power and I think that is his best asset, but Motta’s volume is not great. He only lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.50 in return. I don’t think he is a good round running striker. His wins have also come against poor competition in Cameron VanCamp, Tom Nolan, and Maheshate. These are regional level wins.
Motta has also been knocked out four times in his career as well so his durability is not great.
As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will mostly strike, as both guys have good TDD and don’t wrestle often. I do think if someone gets top position and has wrestling success it will be Sadykhov. He actually wrestles occasionally.
On the feet, these guys are similar in the sense that they both aren’t the best round winning strikers and are power reliant. However, I do think Sadykhov pressures more and is more aggressive. I also think Sadykhov has a durability edge. Sadykhov has never been finished in his career and Motta has been knocked out four times.
Just for those reasons alone, I think it is fair to pick Sadykhov. However, both guys have power and there is probably a lot of variance here. I still think Sadykhov’s durability edge is the main X factor though. He has a ton of power and there is a good chance he just hurts Motta. So Sadykhov is the pick.
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On DraftKings, I think Sadykhov may be my favorite pay up target this week at 9.4k, though it says a lot about the slate because I’m not super confident in him.
Motta has burned me a couple of times now with wins, although I’m still skeptical of how he’ll fare in losses, which is ultimately why I still like Sadykhov here.
Motta won’t wrestle, doesn’t land a ton of volume, and has been knocked out several times. It gives Sadykhov advantages on paper in finishing equity and wrestling equity, and he’s got the best ITD line on this slate at -165 which is worth noting.
So in that sense, Sadykhov is a strong target as he has a legit chance to win by early KO. He may be boom or bust though in that without an early KO, we can’t be certain he’ll produce much offense, or even win the fight.
I do think he can land a couple of takedowns though, so I’m not ruling out a comfortable win in an extended fight. I’m just not sure it would be enough to be optimal at 9.4k. Also an extended fight still scares me because Motta will slow the pace down considerably.
Ultimately, Sadykhov is a risky target but one with finishing equity on paper. I don’t mind playing more into mid-range builds this week and I don’t think he’s a clear stand out over some of the grapplers priced nearby. But when I have the ability to pay up, I think Sadykhov is a decent target and I wouldn’t mind moderate exposure for the finishing upside.
Motta at 6.8k has finishing upside of his own.
He’s got real power in his shots and has been able to hurt and deter a number of guys. I still kind of think he sucks, and he’s very limited, but the power is real. It gives him a path to win and a path to win by KO.
Motta is only +500 to win ITD here which is poor, and Sadykhov doesn’t have that same history of losing by KO.
I wonder if Motta will be a popular pay down target too because he’s coming off back-to-back wins, which scored 86 and 109 DK points. I don’t think he’s a terrible target, but ultimately if you don’t think he’s going to hurt Sadykhov, he’s not worth it. The 86 point win was a decision but still came with two knockdowns.
Meh, I don’t know. I don’t want to rule out Motta and it’s fine if you have low-end shares of him for pure upside. I think I prefer both Kuniev and Ko in the same price tier, so I probably won’t end up with many shares of Motta myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sadykhov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad
Fight Odds: Naimov -283, Grad +234
Odds to Finish: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Naimov 8.8k, Grad 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
We have a random matchup here between Muhammad Naimov and Bogdan Grad.
Naimov is 12-3 professionally and has accrued a 4-1 record in the UFC after originally losing on the Contender Series back in 2020.
I really didn’t have high hopes for him entering the UFC, but he scored an impressive KO in his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey and has largely been successful since.
In that debut, Mullarkey had already won the first round, landing multiple takedowns and 23 significant strikes, while absorbing just 16. In the second round, Mullarkey got caught pressuring Naimov backward, and ate a huge counter right hand that put him on the canvas.
He was then able to outwrestle Nathaniel Wood to a decision, although he committed a couple of fouls in the process. He then scored a first-round KO win over Erik Silva, and most recently defeated Kaan Ofli by decision. In between the two, he suffered his first UFC loss against Felipe Lima, losing by late submission.
I have very mixed feelings about Naimov because he’s overperformed my expectations, but I still don’t consider him a great talent.
On the feet, he carries power for sure, but he’s not particularly high volume and his metrics are weak. He lands 2.94 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.77 per minute with a 44 percent defensive rate. That’s actually really bad.
I think Naimov is dangerous in bursts. He’s physical and I think he’s pretty decent on a per strike basis. He has just not been better than his opponents on a per round basis. He’s landed 32, 30, 48, 28 and 52 sig. strikes in his fights that have extended.
Plus, he tends to slow down. He’s had multiple poor third rounds including the one against Lima which cost him the fight. I generally think he is reliant on moments, which he will be capable of, but without those big moments he is very unlikely to clearly win striking rounds and his volume is very capped.
Naimov is a pretty solid offensive wrestler, who is aided in physicality. He’s landed 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes which is a decent rate, and he has overperformed my expectations there as well.
Defensively, I still don’t love him. In that DWCS fight, he was taken down a few times and he just didn’t react on the mat, giving up mount and the back.
He looked a bit better scrambling up against the cage in more recent bouts, but I don’t think his first layer takedown defense is strong, and he’s currently defending at 66 percent.
I think Naimov has enough base skills and physical attributes to continue to be successful, but I think his ceiling is extremely limited due to his lack of output, and I think he’ll be generally reliant on moments or outgrappling weaker competition.
Grad is now 1-0 in the UFC after he defeated Lucas Alexander by second round TKO, and he’s already had a very weird start to his promotional tenure.
Grad appeared twice on DWCS, and he arguably lost both times. He was KOd badly by Tom Nolan in 2023, and then he fought to a super close decision against Michael Aswell, absorbing 155 sig. strikes over 15 minutes.
Grad is now 15-2 professionally with nine knockouts and three submissions.
To me, he rates out as a solid round winner against the lower levels of the division, but not much more.
He’s a solid boxer who can fight at a high pace, and he does carry some power. He’s also a decent wrestler and a brown belt in BJJ. I wouldn’t say he’s elite at anything but the fact that he’s willing to box and wrestle is a good sign.
He chased after the TDs against Alexander pretty hard, and got three of them in the first two rounds. Eventually Alexander was tired and Grad was able to mount him and finish with ground-and-pound from the back. He actually attempted eight takedowns there which was great.
Alexander has been finished on the mat before though, so it’s still a weak level of competition, but I do think the offensive style Grad employs can lead to success.
The issue is probably on the defensive side. He’s only been KOd once, and never subbed, but the lone KO was a bad one, and then he gave up 155 sig. strikes to Aswell who kind of sucks.
I expect Grad to get hit a decent amount. I do think he’s tough and I like his cardio enough, but he’s absorbing strikes at 47 percent and I wouldn’t say he’s the best athlete. It’s going to bring variance onto the table, and also just allow others who work at decent paces to remain competitive with him.
I’m not fully sure about his defensive wrestling. I think his base is fine and I’ve seen him scramble up at times. He’s also been taken down here and there so he can be grounded ultimately.
Against Alexander, he ended up on his back early after a failed takedown attempt. He didn’t look awesome there and wasn’t urgent in getting back up. He looked like he could be controlled for a while. At the same time, he was patient, didn’t allow many shots, and eventually did scramble up with intent and immediately wrestled himself. It simply wasn’t the best look but it wasn’t the worst look either.
My guess is that it will be a liability at some stage but I’m not sure exactly what level of competition it will take. Giving up the occasional takedown and mild control feels likely.
As far as this matchup, I have mixed feelings because I think Naimov is the better athlete and the more powerful striker. I’ve also been wrong about him in general in terms of level of success.
He doesn’t rate out particularly well for me in this matchup though. If he doesn’t knock Grad out, is he winning at all?
Grad keeps up a high workrate and Naimov does not, so I just think Naimov will either need to win on moments, or he will just lose. Those moments are possible as Grad can be hit and occasionally hurt, but Naimov can be hit too. I think Grad’s volume upside is just far greater and he might very well just win boxing exchanges and take rounds.
Naimov probably can take Grad down, but can he hold him down and submit him? I’m not sure. I’d lean toward mild control but not total domination, though landing 2-3 takedowns seems reasonable for Naimov and it could help him win rounds.
The issue is Grad probably can take Naimov down too. Collin Anglin took Naimov down three times, as did Mullarkey, and Wood took him down twice. Lima fought up a weight class and subbed him.
Grad may honestly have more wrestling upside, or a similar amount. I wouldn’t project more than 1-3 takedowns but three is on the table. Can he hold Naimov down? Probably not easily. But Naimov gets a bit tired and I think Grad could win a round on a takedown if he’s additionally keeping up a decent boxing rate.
This one is tough. It looks like Naimov is being overrated to my eye. I think he has more KO upside on paper but those outcomes are tough to project and the public usually overprojects them.
I think Naimov is likely to have success in total either with some bigger strikes landed, and/or a takedown or two. But without an early finish I don’t see him running away with this as Grad just keeps up a nice workrate and is semi well-rounded.
I think Grad is pretty live for the upset honestly, but there seems to be a fair amount of potential outcomes. I lean toward the dog being value at least.
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On DraftKings, Naimov seems relatively boom or bust to me at 8.8k.
In his two decision wins, Naimov scored 97 and 72, which is a wide range. The former came from four takedowns and nearly eight minutes of control, which I do think is on the table here. But I think that’s definitely toward the end of the expected spectrum and I wouldn’t be surprised if his wrestling success was much more limited.
Otherwise, he just needs the KO. He doesn’t land enough strikes to give him options from a fantasy perspective. Naimov also only scored 92 in his 2nd round KO win which wouldn’t be a guaranteed optimal score either at 8.8k.
Typically these are not spots I like to play into, especially as Grad has only been KOd once. However, Naimov is +150 to win ITD here which is OK, and I do think moments are possible.
It’s ultimately not a spot I’d aim to be heavy on, and without the early KO, I don’t think Naimov exceeds 100 points. I’d rather play the grapplers above mostly. But I am also not ruling out an early KO and I’d label him a secondary tournament target for that reason.
With a limited number of lineups, I will probably end up underweight myself. With a larger portfolio, coming in near the field is viable enough as he shouldn’t be super chalky and still presents a small but semi-reasonable upside case.
Grad at 7.4k is probably one of my favorite underdogs at cost, but the betting line is trending the wrong direction and I”ll have to keep my exposure in check.
I just like his work rate, and I like that he’s landed three takedowns in back-to-back fights. It gives him scoring options at 7.4k and real life win equity.
If the fight plays out on the feet, sure he could lose but we also know he can throw enough to make rounds competitive. And there’s some KO variance on the table. He also could land 1-3 takedowns against an opponent who has given them up before.
Essentially, the floor feels low here but I’m happy enough to target Grad at 7.4k for his pacing and sneaky win equity. If he doesn’t rate out well by others eyes, great. He’s not projecting that well but he’s +315 ITD which is fine.
I expect I’ll be overweight to Grad myself but cost will be a major reason why, and I think general secondary exposure is a fine strategy as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Grad by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Seokhyeon Ko vs. Oban Elliott
Fight Odds: Elliott -439, Ko +347
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Elliott 9.5k, Ko 6.7k
Weight Class: 170
Both Oban Elliott and Seokhyeon Ko had their fights cancelled due to visa issues at a recent event, so the UFC decided to match them together this weekend in Baku instead.
Seokhyeon Ko will be making his debut with an 11-2 record, including six wins by knockout and five more by decision. He earned his contract on the Contender Series last September with a solid performance over three rounds. He’s 31 years old.
Ko is nicknamed “The Korean Tyson” and his boxing is arguably the best part of his game.
He fights out of the southpaw stance and likes to bounce around on his feet, and throw hard 1-2s. He is a very solid athlete and has pretty big power in his left hand specifically.
Ko can also throw damaging leg kicks, although that’s not always a major part of his game plan. He only landed three leg strikes on DWCS for example. But he carries power there too and can damage opponents.
Ko is apparently a purple belt in jiu-jitsu with a sambo background, and although he can wrestle a bit, I don’t think he’s an elite grappler. He can shoot some basic doubles or trip opponents, and he can probably beat up lower level grapplers. His top game is decent and he will throw really heavy ground-and-pound. I do like the fact that he mixes in wrestling.
I just don’t think he’s some special wrestler or submission grappler. I’ve rarely seen him defend takedowns but he was taken down once on DWCS and popped back up pretty immediately. I think he’ll be difficult to hold down against average competition.
One potential negative is that Ko has been knocked out in both of his losses, and of the one I could view, he was knocked out cold early in the first round. It gives me a bit of hesitation in this matchup specifically because I view Ko as a fighter who likes to be in control.
He only landed 54 sig. strikes in three rounds on DWCS and I don’t view him as a major volume specialist. He’s not low volume, but he’s not the type to excel in brawls either, although his power can bail him out.
Ko will want to control distance, bounce around, land big power shots and avoid getting damaged in return. He’ll want to mix in some top control, and land damage there too.
I actually think Ko is pretty decent and I think he can have success in the UFC. I’m not sure he runs away with striking rounds though, unless he’s landing big damage, and I’m not sure his wrestling will be very impactful at the higher levels.
But he’s got good cardio, good power and good athleticism. He can have success in striking exchanges and if his durability holds up, Ko should win fights.
Elliott has seen his stock skyrocket in recent years, and is coming off a brutal knockout win over Bassil Hafez last November.
Prior to that, he won a decision against Preston Parsons, showcasing some impressive takedown defense. And in his UFC debut, he got past Val Woodburn after being hurt early, where Elliot was able to win both striking and wrestling exchanges to take a decision.
Thus far, it seems like Elliott has chosen to play the role of a neutralizer. His metrics look strong on paper, as he lands 4.26 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.25 per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate.
I would still label him as having a limited arsenal. He has landed 58, 72, 44 and 65 significant strikes, and has done particularly well in avoiding exchanges returned. To be fair though, he hasn’t really fought any strong strikers.
Elliott is also a purple belt in BJJ, and his wrestling looks competent, as he’s landing 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, though those mostly came on DWCS and in his UFC debut against Woodburn. What was more impressive was that defensive wrestling performance against Parsons, which was a far cry from what we’d seen on the regional circuit. Elliott defended 8/9 takedowns and outcontrolled Parsons by a few minutes.
I think Elliott has some capability of landing takedowns and grinding guys out, but he just doesn’t attempt enough takedowns on average for me to be confident in that game plan. At least it’s another tool for him to use.
The recent KO victory is great and it does seem like Elliott has power, but it’s worth noting he literally only has three knockout wins, along with two knockout losses. And that doesn’t include his debut against Val Woodburn who runs a lawn mowing service for a living and knocked Elliot down early in the fight.
Essentially, I am still not totally sold on Elliott. He seems like a decent neutralizer with respectable skills, but he’s not producing a whole lot of offense. He’s mostly fought bottom end competition thus far and I’ll be even more skeptical when he steps up against the mid-tier.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t really see why Elliott is a heavy favorite.
I would expect the fight to play out at a mild pace, and I’d project both Ko and Elliott to land a similar number of strikes. I have some defensive concerns on both sides because both have been knocked out multiple times on the regional scene.
By default, both sides will carry some knockout upside. I could be sold on Elliott having more knockout upside but I don’t think it’s dramatic.
Elliott will likely neutralize the wrestling of Ko here, as he’s done against recent UFC opponents. I suppose Elliott has wrestling upside of his own but I wouldn’t project him for more than a couple of takedowns. It’s possible that some top control could come into play on a per-round basis though.
I mostly see this fight taking place at distance, with both fighters landing singular shots. That’s a kind of fight Elliott likes and has been successful in, but it’s also a decent stylistic matchup for Ko who won’t be pressured aggressively.
Elliott will be a couple inches taller and longer and perhaps that favors him. He’s obviously more experienced at this level. He’ll carry some KO upside and has a bit more wrestling equity on paper. But he hasn’t been a major KO threat historically and I think the most likely outcome is a tepid, semi-competitive distance affair that likely goes the distance.
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On DraftKings, I’m not particularly interested in paying 9.5k for Elliott.
I just think there’s more risk here than on average, especially as I’m not even sure what game plan Elliott will employ. He could land some takedowns and reach 100 points with a dominating, control based win, but that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome.
Even when he did that in his UFC debut, Elliott still only scored 102 points. It’s a strong result but at 9.5k, it’s not guaranteed to be optimal.
Otherwise, he just needs a quick KO. I have to keep that outcome on the table because Ko has been KOd in both losses, but it’s hard to project as Elliott doesn’t have many career knockdowns and has been hurt just as often himself.
He’ll rate out OK with a +170 ITD line but that’s obviously nowhere near the kind of finishing equity we usually see at these numbers. Plus, the fight may not be super high paced, so there’s a lot of risk for an extended bout where Elliott underperforms.
I’m not saying we must fade Elliott, but I’m not really compelled to prioritize him in any fashion. I’d probably rather play more sure grapplers priced below, and so I expect to end up relatively light this week on Elliott at 9.5k.
Ko at 6.7k is actually in play to me, as a low-end target.
I don’t think he’s a great target because I don’t think he’s going to produce a ton of points, but he’s a competent striker who could potentially win rounds. He also has some sneaky KO equity even though he’s only +400 to win ITD. I wouldn’t put much stock into his wrestling equity.
The real issue is that Ko might land 60 strikes and win a decision, and only score in the mid-50s. It feels like the risk isn’t worth the reward.
However, he should be low owned and carry leverage. His ITD line isn’t horrible for the price and Elliott has some historic durability questions. I don’t mind a sprinkle here and I do prefer Ko ahead of a few other cheap fighters on this slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Elliott by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ismail Naurdiev vs. JunYong Park
Fight Odds: Park -186, Naurdiev +158
Odds to Finish: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Park 8.7k, Naurdiev 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Ismail Naurdiev got signed to the UFC back in 2019 but got bounced out of the promotion after his first contract expired with a 2-2 record. He then went back to the regionals where he went 4-3, which isn’t the traditional run that warrants a fighter being re-signed. But he made good on his re-debut against Bruno Silva back in October and appears to be staying at 185 lbs. – he’s 24-7 as a pro. JunYong Park’s entering his 7th year on the active roster where he’s had some setbacks against top 15 guys, but has by and large been a consistent commodity throughout his run – he’s 8-3 in the UFC and 18-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Naurdiev’s amassed a lot of pro experience despite only being 28 years old, where we’ve seen some different striking approaches from him over the years.
He’s repped the nickname of the “Austrian Wonderboy” in the past due to some of his explosive and flashy jumping/kicking techniques, where 12 of his 24 pro wins come via KO/TKO. Whilst still repping a solid kicking game, he’s toned his style back a bit to now be a more methodical thai-kickboxer.
So, he’s not going to blow your hair back in the volume department necessarily but is relatively technical in the game he plays. We even saw him go out and take the 1st round on the feet from Sean Brady in last UFC outing prior to being cut.
He also did some solid work against Prazeres in his debut and really beat the body up of Rencountre in his sophomore appearance. He’ll keep a higher shelling guard in terms of his defense although it can be split and worked around.
He’s also struggled with counter shots in recent years as he was put down early by Kutsyi and club-and-subbed by Bandel in the fight prior. Al-Silawi was also able to take him out early via kicks in his 1st regional loss post UFC.
But he put on a solid showing in his re-debut last time out over Bruno Silva, outlanding him 66-36 – although Silva didn’t provide him much resistance and allowed Naurdiev to just dance around him.
Overall, despite the extensive sample size we have of Naurdiev, he’s still a bit of a tricky guy to get a read on. I think he’s got some solid technical tools and KO power but he’s also kind of flakey at the same time.
Park isn’t the biggest, flashiest or most athletic guy in the world but a good striker with generally good process.
He can fight going both forwards/backwards, has a great jab, good hooks, decent kicks and will dig the body. He’s more of a volume striker in comparison to a power guy but has some snap on his shots and his hand speed is probably one of his main core competencies.
However, we did see him significantly hurt both Hernandez and Rodrigues in those fights – also stung Anders with some good shots and more recently dropped Duraev, so he doesn’t have pillows in his fists by any means.
Additionally, he’s outpaced 9 of his 11 UFC opponents (with the exceptions of Rodrigues by 3 distance strikes and Holmes by 5 with little distance time). He actually set what I believe was a strike record in his fight over Phillips – 260/350 total strikes – granted the overwhelming majority came on the ground.
So, output has been a consistent theme within Park’s game, landing 4.8 SLpM at 51% additionally landing 8 DLpM at 49%, which puts him at the top of the division in terms of distance pacing.
Defensively, he’s not great as he can leave his head on the center line at times and was KO’d for the 1st time in his career by Rodrigues a handful of fights ago when he decided to go life and death with him, which was a dumb decision.
But he can do a good job of keeping guys on the end of his punches at times – he still eats over 6 distance strikes per minute though, defending at just 55%.
Overall, Park’s on the smaller end of 185 but he weaponizes his speed and pace well generally, which has been a key component of his UFC success to date.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys will be at relative size parity given that Park’s a smaller 185er and Naurdiev is a former 170er. The striking’s a bit difficult to get a read on here despite the extensive sample of both guys. The primary advantages I see for Park are that his volume patterns are more consistent and he has a more effective jab. Both are good kickers but I would give Naurdiev the advantage there in the sense that he targets more levels and generally turns his kicks over better – they take more of an impact. I also think Naurdiev has a bit more raw power than Park but I also think Naurdiev is less durable than Park which brings an interesting contrast. I wouldn’t consider either to be great defensive strikers. I ultimately give Park more upside for pacing and cardio purposes but it’s not a particularly strong read.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Naurdiev started training wrestling in his teens before making the shift to MMA shortly after where he had his 1st pro fight at the age of 16.
He’s shown to be a capable offensive wrestler, but I still wouldn’t necessarily classify him as a “good” offensive wrestler. He’s definitely a guy that likes to stand in his fights but depending on the matchup, he’s mixed it in to where he’s found success in grinding guys out.
Six of his 24 pro wins come via submission – he pulled off a standing guillotine choke in his last regional outing but over a 36-year-old smoker so rather meaningless. His last submission win before that though dates all the way back to 2016 so in a vacuum, he hasn’t been much of a threat in that realm despite winning some fights with his wrestling. But he did hit a nice switch against Zheenbekov in his 2nd to last regional win though where he pounded the guy out from back mount, and he did have Silva’s back recently for a brief time threatening with an RNC.
Defensively is where he’s had some issues.
His general TDD actually isn’t bad and is relatively decent as he stuffed at 72% through his five documented UFC fights, and he has by and large stayed upright from conventional TDs in his most recent regional run.
But the floor was ultimately the catalyst in his two UFC losses to Rencountre where he gave up two TDs and 11 minutes of control, and to Brady giving up four TDs and eight minutes of control.
In Naurdiev’s defense, Rencountre was a collegiate wrestler and we know how good Sean Brady is on the ground now – Naurdiev actually did a good job of avoiding dominant positions with Brady and put up a lot of resistance early.
So, he’s good with his first layer but has struggled with some attrition and chaining attacks.
Overall, Naurdiev probably still profiles to have some struggles with better ground guys at the UFC level – that’s not a definitive statement though based on sample/timeframe. But he does have the offensive wrestling abilities to win fights if opponents don’t come proper and can’t solidify control positions on him.
Park’s a guy who likes to mix in his wrestling and grappling to his fights.
I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials but he does have five submission wins on his record, including one over 2021 PFL Champion Ray Cooper, and he has scored subs in three of his last four wins.
Statistically, he lands 1.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 47% — good metrics when you factor in his striking as well.
He took down Barriault five times but did struggle to control him as most have in recent years, and then he took Phillips down four times and controlled him for 13+ minutes (not really that impressive considering Philips can’t grapple but did kick his ass).
We also saw him wash Nchukwi on the ground in the 3rd round – had lots of success against Holmes getting to his back eventually finding the RNC. More recently, he washed Denis on the mat, opening up with GNP to eventually take the back and secure a RNC, and also found dominant positions later against Duraev after the KD, leading to a submission and actually took Brad Tavares down twice which is a pretty impressive feat if people are familiar with Tavares’ TDD over the years.
But his TDD now sits at 57% which kind of got trashed by Muniz who landed 11 TDs.
Two of his losses have come via submission to Shavkat Rakhmonov and Anthony Hernandez — no shame really given the ground capabilities of both.
But a systemic issue with Park, despite his offensive success, is that he has a bad tendency to give the back and we’ve seen that in multiple fights now – Hernandez, Rodriguez, Anders, Holmes, Duraev and Muniz.
But he makes guys work, doesn’t accept positions and has been able to defend the majority of these positions as he can nullify hooks in multiple spots. But it’s still a bad characteristic to have that will catch up to him.
Despite losing the bulk of ground minutes to Muniz, he was able to reverse positions in the 1st and 3rd where he did damage from top positions to where I felt he should have gotten the nod – Muniz had no sub attempts and landed 1 ground strike despite 9.5 minutes of control.
Overall, Park’s offensive wrestling is decent, he can be strong from top position, and has shown submission competency but he can struggle with some cage grind or just better wrestlers/grapplers.
How it plays out: The ground is also funky here as both have shown to be capable offensive wrestlers that have won fights via grappling but have also had some defensive struggles in the past. Offensively, I think Naurdiev may be a bit more physical and may have better entries but I think Park has the better jiu-jitsu. Also, Naurdiev doesn’t have the same level of transitional grappling of guys like Hernandez, Rodriguez or Muniz who gave bigger issues to Park from the back. So those are some of my intricate assessments, but where I’m struggling more is with the game planning of both. Naurdiev shot 13 times last time out against Silva but that was a bit out of the norm so I don’t know if that’s something that will be consistent here. Assessing who has more upside here is a bit of a head scratcher.
Really interesting fight and solid booking. I’ve been a Park “truther” for a while now as the guy’s been pretty consistent over the years and usually maximizes his equity in his fights, despite being undersized and not a great athlete. On the flip side, I’m still struggling to make heads or tails of how good Naurdiev is and what his UFC ceiling is like. I think he’s got some solid foundational tools and has a ton of experience for a guy that’s only 28 years old, having not even entered his prime years yet. But despite the solid re-debut showing against Silva, Silva is turbo washed at this point in his career so it’s also a win that doesn’t really mean a whole to be honest. As noted, it’s a semi tricky matchup to analyze when you put everything together, but I side with Park as the more battle tested UFC guy who I also think is less flakey and has the better cardio – the last part is potentially really important here because I think Naurdiev is a guy that’s going to do well when he can dictate his fights but I don’t think Park is going to let him do that here, where we may see some of Naurdiev’s negative attributes rear their head.
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On DraftKings, I’m moderately interested in this matchup because Park usually brings a fun pace and both fighters can have defensive issues at times.
Park, of the two, has shown a very solid ceiling in past wins. He’s scored 96, 109, 113, 102, 79, 77, 128 and 93 in his victories which is pretty strong. A few of those have been finishes but a few 90+ scores have come in decisions as well.
The real difficulty here is in reading Naurdiev, which is what Luke broke down in the analysis above. I think he has skills but it’s extremely concerning to me that he went 4-3 on the regionals in between his two UFC stints, and was finished in all three losses..
His recent win over Bruno Silva was good but Silva is totally washed, as Luke pointed out. I also don’t want to completely discredit him for the Sean Brady loss which was a fine performance in hindsight.
Essentially, I think there’s a very wide range of outcomes for this matchup, but I think targeting Park to some degree makes sense. Not only has he shown a solid fantasy ceiling in the past, he can wrestle in volume at times, and Naurdiev can lose ITD. Park is +185 to win ITD here which is OK.
I would not label Park as safe or a real priority, but I think he’s an intriguing target in this upper 8k range, and I could argue him as a priority above those priced below. At the same time, he may simply land 1-2 takedowns, 80 sig. strikes, and score in the mid-80s which is fine, but almost certainly not optimal.
I will likely end up with a fair amount of Park in mid-range builds, but I’m far from confident in how this fight will play out, and targeting him as a standard secondary option makes sense as there’s still others in this range who could flash upside as well.
Naurdiev at 7.5k is viable as well.
It’s a tough analysis because I’m really not sure how the fight will go and I could see him losing big, losing competitively, winning competitively or winning big.
I don’t think winning big is the likeliest of those outcomes, but what I do like is that Park brings a high pace. So in order to beat him, you need to produce offense or finish him. I think that will give Naurdiev a fairly strong floor in a win, and if I’m already on Park, I don’t mind just being on this fight as a whole to some degree.
I kind of doubt 60 sig. strikes at distance is enough to beat Park, so my guess is that Narudiev will mix in a few takedowns in a win. I don’t think mass amounts of control wil come with it but he could earn some top time. He could also hurt Park who is sometimes wreckless in exchanges. Naurdiev is only +400 ITD though which concerns me.
I more so am interested in Naurdiev due to the price tag. At 7.8k I probably wouldn’t be as interested in him and there’d be more risk. He’s cheap enough to save salary and help acquire more stars though, and I still think there is enough unknowns and variance to this matchup where the price could plausibly be wrong in hindsight.
I do prefer others who I feel more confident in the data, and who I simply think are more likely to win. But Naurdiev is now +158 with some wrestling equity and at 7.5k, I think he’s a fine secondary target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Park by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Mullins
Fight Odds: Mullins -252, Zhelezniakova +210
Odds to Finish: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Mullins 9k, Zhelezniakova 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have the rematch MMA fans have been clamoring for as Melissa Mullins will take on Daria Zhelezniakova this weekend.
Okay yea, so no one wants to see this fight. I was lying. However, I was not lying that this is a rematch. These two fought on the regionals back in 2022 where Mullins won by finish in round one via ground-and-pound. Essentially, they brawled for a couple of minutes on the feet where Daria was getting the better of the exchanges. Mullins then got a takedown, obtained a dominant position, and finished Daria on the mat.
Mullins is 7-1 professionally and is 2-1 in the UFC. In her UFC debut, she defeated Irina Alekseeva by essentially outboxing Alekseeva and controlling her on the mat. Mullins then lost to Nora Cornolle by getting finished with a body strike in round two.
We actually bet Mullins in her last fight against Klaudia Sygula. It was evident that Mullins had a grappling advantage going into that fight, and that played out as we thought. Mullins finished Sygula in round two on the mat.
Mullins isn’t great, but she is at least functional in certain areas. As a striker, I don’t love Mullins’ game. She isn’t very athletic, and I do think she takes a little too much damage for my liking. She also only landed 52 significant strikes in three rounds against Alekseeva and can be low volume at times.
Mullins is semi-functional on the feet though. She has a decent jab and straight punches. She can defend herself against the low tier strikers of this division.
Mullins is best as a grappler. Her takedowns aren’t great, but they aren’t awful and she can take down low-level opponents. She is also pretty strong in the clinch and that is where her takedowns are best.
I actually think Mullins’ top game is the best part of her game. She can advance position, she can slap in body triangles and flow on top reasonably well. I also think her bottom game is decent from what I have seen and she doesn’t get held down often. So she generally wins the positional battle on the mat vs low tier competition which will win her fights. Her top game is solid and she can beat weak grapplers there.
Mullins also has never been submitted and can generally stifle submissions on the mat. I generally think Mullins’ path to victory in the UFC is by outgrappling low-level opponents.
Mullins will be taking on Daria Zhelezniakova. Daria is a Russian fighter who is 9-2 professionally. She made her UFC debut in 2024 and won a competitive decision against Montserrat Rendon by getting the better of the striking exchanges.
Daria’s one UFC loss came to Ailin Perez in her last matchup. We bet Perez there as it seemed pretty clear Perez had a grappling advantage. Perez took Daria down and submitted her in round one.
I don’t think Daria is very good. I profile her mostly as a striker. She is okay on the feet but nothing special. She outlanded Rendon 51-25 at distance which is okay but I wasn’t all that impressed. She is somewhat skilled on the feet, and can throw hard and use some footwork here and there. She can mostly just go through the striking motions.
Darya was taken down three times by Rendon, was finished on the mat vs Mullins in their first fight, and finished on the mat vs Perez. Her takedown defense isn’t awful and she can kind of work up to the feet. Her first layer takedown defense is kind of there. However, she can get pushed vs the clinch and taken down. She also really struggles on bottom once opponents consolidate top position.
Overall, I just don’t think Daria is very good. Striking based decisions are likely her path to victory at this level and she doesn’t even look special on the feet or look like a good defensive wrestler either.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Mullins and I think the first fight is a fair representation of what I think will happen again.
Darya is a better striker. I also think Darya could keep this standing early for a bit and she could get the better of the exchanges again. I still think Mullins could compete and potentially win a striking fight over the duration. I just wouldn’t be comfortable with Mullins striking at her betting line.
Eventually though, I just think Mullins needs a takedown to really take over the fight. A takedown will probably be a round and it may just be the fight. Mullins’ top game is actually solid and Daria is clearly weak there. Mullins probably mauls her again when she gets on top.
My guess is Darya keeps this standing for a bit and they exchange a little. However, over the course of 15 minutes, I just have to expect Mullins to land a takedown or two as Darya just gets clinched up too easily. My guess is that either results in a dominant round for Mullins or a finish and should be the difference in the fight.
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On DraftKings, Mullins is priced up to 9k but should be a viable target based on her grappling upside.
Zhelezniakova is very weak once she is grounded on her back. She gave up mount too easily to Perez and did the same vs. Mullins in their first matchup. So while I’m unsure Mullins will produce a ton of offense in general, if Mullins even lands one takedown, it could theoretically lead to dominant positions and a finish.
She will need that finish at 9k though, so I’d label Mullins semi-boom or bust in this matchup. On the feet, I’d expect Zhelezniakova to be winning exchanges and therefore Mullins could potentially just lose the fight outright.
However, she should know wrestling is her path to win and she should try fairly urgently to get it there. If she scores 1-2 takedowns in three rounds, she should win the fight, and that seems pretty realistic.
Mullins is +100 to win ITD here which is decent for a WMMA fight. On paper I think she has a realistic shot at a finish too. I’m unsure if her ceiling is elite, and I’m slightly worried about an extended fight, but I’m still willing to take some chances for the grappling upside.
I would consider Mullins a strong secondary target overall. She clearly has a path to exceeding value at her price and any kind of win probably scores well. There are other grapplers in this range though and she may not be a true stand out. Especially when I cannot pay up further, I’m happy to mix Mullins in and I wouldn’t mind ending up near the field or a bit overweight.
Zhelezniakova is priced down to 7.2k and I don’t love her.
It’s not a strong stylistic matchup for her on paper and she’s not a real fantasy asset anyway. She only scored points in her UFC debut win and I wouldn’t be shocked to see something similar here in a win.
For Zhelezniakova to crush, she needs a knockout. The only reason I’m not writing this off completely is because she did tag Mullins up in the first matchup, and Mullins was recently TKOd with a body shot. Perhaps if she can keep the fight upright, she can hurt Mullins. She’ll also be extremely low owned and carry some leverage.
But the floor is so low and the ceiling is still super weak on paper. She’s +550 to win ITD and given the style matchup, I’m inclined to avoid her for the most part.
If you want to take a shot or two on a potential sub 10 percent fighter with leverage, Zhelezniakova will be available, but her path to a ceiling seems highly questionable in this matchup and with a limited portfolio, I’ll likely have almost none of her.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mullins by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Sygula
Fight Odds: Alekseeva -282, Sygula +233
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Alekseeva 8.9k, Sygula 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have one of the lower level fights you will ever see when Irina Alekseeva squares off against Klaudia Sygula this weekend.
Alekseeva is a Russian fighter and is 5-2 professionally with most of her fights taking place in obscure regional promotions, and one fight in Bellator.
Alekseeva fought Stephanie Egger in her UFC debut. She landed some heavy shots and then landed a random meme kneebar in round one to get the submission win. Alekseeva then fought Melissa Mullins in her second fight. She overall just got outgrappled by Mullins and controlled. She lost a clean decision.
Alekseeva comes from a Judo background. She has a decent understanding of pummeling underhooks and clinching vs the cage. She is positionally aware in that position. I don’t consider her takedowns all that strong, and I doubt she can consistently get them at the UFC level. However, she can probably land them against very weak grapplers. She also has a decent understanding of riding top position.
Alekseeva’s defensive wrestling isn’t great. In her one fight she lost on the regionals, I saw her taken down and controlled a bit. I also thought it looked poor vs Mullins.
On the feet, Alekseeva is a bit low volume and kind of unskilled. She can basically just go through the motions and I don’t think it is a consistent path to victory for her at this level. She can wing power shots though and does have a little bit of pop.
Alekseeva’s best chance to win fights in the UFC is by just taking down and controlling weak grapplers, or randomly landing meme submissions.
Enter Klaudia Sygula who is 6-2 professionally. She is a Polish fighter who is 26 years old. Sygula has basically just fought in terrible promotions against terrible fighters. So she is quite unproven in general.
Sygula fought Melissa Mullins in her UFC debut where we bet Mullins. Mullins just took Sygula down, and beat the crap out of her on the mat and finished her.
Sygula doesn’t look like a real talent to me. I would honestly be surprised if she lasted in this promotion. She is going to have to make some major improvements.
Sygula is kind of just a freestyle fighter. She isn’t particularly good anywhere. As a striker, she can be semi-aggressive at times. However, she doesn’t look all that technical or athletic. Her volume isn’t always great either. I doubt she can do much with her striking at this level.
Sygula occasionally lands takedowns, but I don’t consider her a good wrestler. She isn’t even great on top either and I have seen her lose positions quite easily.
Sygula also looks like a poor defensive grappler. If you include her amateur record, she has been submitted three times. In her loss to Karolina Sobek, she was head-and-arm thrown like three times, and held on her back and couldn’t get up. She was submitted by a Scarf Hold Armlock which is actually an old school catch wrestling submission that isn’t used much in MMA. That isn’t really something a professional fighter should be getting submitted with. She was also badly outgrappled by Mullins. She just isn’t very good.
I really don’t have many good things to say about Sygula. She doesn’t look like a great striker or grappler and she looks pretty terrible on the mat. She can be taken down and put in bad spots in general.
As far as this matchup goes, I think both girls are awful. However, I think Alekseeva is better at holding top position. If Alekseeva lands takedowns here, I actually think she can hold position and threaten with a finish on the mat. Sygula is honestly that bad and the grappling upside of Alekseeva is why I will pick Alekseeva to win.
Alekseeva is bad enough to where I wouldn’t be shocked if she lost though. On the feet, this is so low level. I guess it is low level enough to where Alekseeva could potentially lose a competitive sloppy fight. I also think Alekseeva is a poor defensive wrestler and she could get stuck on her back as well.
Overall though, Alekseeva looks like a better pure wrestler and grappler to me. She also looks like the more dangerous submission grappler. So I will pick Alekseeva to win because she is probably a little less awful than Sygula. My guess is Alekseeva eventually gets some takedowns and wins this fight on the mat.
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On DraftKings, I’m actually somewhat interested in Alekseeva here for her grappling upside.
It’s a weird comparison at 8.9k to Mullins who is priced right above Alekseeva at 9k. Mullins is a far more technical wrestler and grappler. Sygula looks really bad on the mat though, even worse than Zhelezniakova.
I don’t trust Alekseeva much in any area of the game, but she’s pretty physical and pretty aggressive. If she’s able to get the fight down, I do think she can win ITD.
Her ITD line started the week at +185 but has been bet down to +135 which is interesting. This is going to be a super sloppy fight in general so there’s not much to feel confident in. However, I do think Alekseeva carries some grappling equity and finishing upside at her price tag, so I’m willing to play her.
I can’t say this is a primary target, however, I do like the price tag for Alekseeva and I think she’s a solid secondary option, who could also be sneaky based on her weak finishing metrics. I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to her if the public is going to shy away.
Sygula is priced at 7.3k and it’s tough for me to make any real investment in her based on her talent.
I’m not even sure what her path to win is. I would probably favor Alekseeva on the feet too though I’m open to that being incorrect. I doubt Sygula can do much on the mat.
So if her best path to win is a sloppy, striking based decision, I’m not too interested in Sygula. She’s only +600 to win ITD too which is pretty poor.
Again, she should be very low owned and potentially sub 10 percent owned as there just aren’t many reasons to target her. If being unique on a low-level WMMA fight interests you, Sygula is one option.
My best guess though is that Sygula strikes a limited amount, gets outgrappled and loses, so I won’t have much or any real investment in her this weekend.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alekseeva by Armbar, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum
Fight Odds: Ulankebov -464, Maksum +364
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Ulanbekov 9.3k, Maksum 6.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Russian prospect, Tagir Ulanbekov, is looking to continue the momentum after defeating Clayton Carpenter in his most recent fight. He will have a chance to do that when he takes on Azat Maksum this weekend.
Tagir entered the UFC with a lot of experience on the Russian circuit. He is now 16-2 professionally and a pretty well-rounded fighter. He thrives mostly as a wrestler, and he generally takes his opponents down and gets control on the mat. He lands 3.56 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Tagir has been able to land takedowns so far in the UFC and I quite like his body lock takedown. He hits it against almost everyone. He has landed a takedown in all six of his UFC fights.
Tagir is also a dangerous submission grappler. He can take the back, hold position, and threaten in general in top position.
Ulanbekov has an absolutely nasty guillotine which he showed against Maness and on the regional circuit. He nearly submitted Nascimento with it as well. Tagir actually has nine submissions in his career out of 16 wins, and I consider him a good submission grappler.
I also LOVE LOVE LOVE Tagir’s get-up game. This guy has some of the best get-ups in all of the UFC. He surrendered some takedowns to Bruno Silva and Tim Elliott and currently defends takedowns at 63 percent. However, I still consider his TDD fine and those guys obtained NO control on Tagir. His get-up game is seriously amazing. He also easily swept Durden the one time he ended up on his back. He then did the same thing to Clayton Carpenter. He has some dirty butterflies to use for sweeps.
Tagir is also a competent striker. He has a decently long frame for flyweight at 5’7” with a 70-inch reach, and is a skilled boxer, particularly with his long punches. He almost outlands everyone to the head, and I also like his cardio. He can wrestle and strike hard for 15 minutes. His volume is concerning though and he only lands 3.13 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.20. I don’t totally love him on the feet as he does lack some power and volume, but I do think he is decent and extremely experienced. I think he is a better striker than his metrics indicate.
Tagir will be taking on Azat Maksum. Maksum is a Kazakhstan fighter and is 17-1 professionally.
Maksum basically fought a bunch of weak competition on the regional scene. Many of the fighters he beat didn’t even have a professional win.
Maksum is a wrestler. On the regionals, he set a grappling pace generally. He looks to land takedowns, mat return, and control or submit his opponents.
His wrestling isn’t bad. However, it has generally gotten shut down in the UFC. He fought Tyson Nam in his UFC debut and only landed two takedowns on 11 attempts. He then fought Charles Johnson and only landed two takedowns on seven attempts. He didn’t consolidate much control in either fight.
I didn’t like the look of those two UFC fights for Maksum. He lost to Johnson and won a split against Nam in a fight I thought he lost. His takedowns and top control are just not good enough for this division. Also, he was taken down by Johnson at the end of round three and mounted. He literally went half conscious diving into a guillotine as well. So I actually question his defensive grappling as well.
On the feet, Maksum is also raw. He can wing punches occasionally. I have seen him hurt guys, but I don’t think his striking is a consistent path to victory in the UFC. I will be much more confident in him when he has a grappling path to victory. He was outlanded in significant strikes 81-46 against Nam and 76-38 against Johnson.
I just don’t see where Maksum is better than Tagir. Tagir is literally better in every area of the sport. I think Tagir is the better striker and boxer. I think Tagir will be able to land his jab and straight punches fairly consistently.
Furthermore, I don’t think Maksum can outwrestle Tagir. Maybe Maksum can land a takedown but I don’t think he can hold Tagir down. On the other hand, Tagir can probably wreck Maksum on the mat. Maksum allowed Nam to clinch him up in a position where Tagir would have easily turned that into his patented body lock takedown. I also think Maksum looks like a guy who will dive into a guillotine or a sub and I actually think Tagir is going to submit him.
So yea Tagir can win this fight in a lot of ways. I think Maksum can really only win this fight with some random variance finish which seems unlikely. Maybe Maksum can get a low tepid split decision striking win? However, that would surprise me too. I think Tagir is going to outclass him personally.
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On DraftKings, I feel fairly safe with Ulanbekov at 9.3k, but I’m less sure about his ceiling.
His career high is 120 points, which is outstanding, but he’s only scored 100, 93, 86 and 85 in his other wins. The 120 was a 2nd round sub with a knockdown mixed in, so that’s not a realistic ceiling scenario.
This also isn’t an “easy” matchup as Maksum is competent and athletic. I’m not very confident Tagir wins ITD. His ITD line is only +200 which backs up my concerns.
With that said, Maksum’s takedown defense has not looked good and I agree that Ulanbekov should take him down. If he does, I think there’s a reasonable chance he submits him. I’m still not certain it comes with tons of offensive production, but a mid-90s or low 100s seems realistic in a submission. I’d assume less in a decision but there’s still paths to a similar result.
At 9.3k, you certainly don’t have to consider Ulanbekov a priority. There are three grapplers priced directly below him who I think could each outscore Ulanbekov, though I feel the safest with Ulanbekov winning.
I still don’t mind exposure here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did win ITD and hit a ceiling case. But at 9.3k he’s a bit too expensive to justify heavy exposure and I think there are several reasonable pivots nearby.
Maksum at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a ton on the basis of him not having much win equity.
I will say that I was impressed with his first round against Johnson. His striking looked pretty crisp, and effective, and I think he can hurt some guys. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Maksum won the first round or hurt Ulanbekov.
I just think without a knockout, he won’t win. Ulanbekov is likely the better striker over 15 minutes and should have a clear extended grappling edge too. So Maksum just won’t score many points.
I don’t really want to bet on a knockout and he’s only +700 to win ITD. He probably won’t be popular at 6.9k but I still don’t feel the need to chase much exposure here. Only viable as a low-end punt with some theoretical KO upside, but simply not a great matchup on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulanbekov by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Mohammed Usman
Fight Odds: Abdelwahab -164, Usman +140
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Abdelwahab 8.6k, Usman 7.6k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a sloppy heavyweight contest here between Mohammed Usman and Hamdy Abdelwahab.
Unfortunately, Mohammed Usman did not inherit the fighting skills of his brother Kamaru Usman. He isn’t terrible, especially for a heavyweight, but he is clearly not as talented as his brother who turned back the clock against Joaquin Buckley last week.
Anyway, Usman fought in random regional promotions like PFL before making his way to TUF where he won the season by defeating Zac Pauga with a random knockout in round two of the finale.
He then outwrestled Junior Tafa and won by decision. He then actually had a somewhat decent performance against Jake Collier. He struck competitively with Collier and landed 85 significant strikes which kind of surprised me. He also landed a takedown in round three to cleanly win the decision.
Usman came up short in his last two matchups against Mick Parkin and Thomas Peterson, and dropped decisions against both. Those guys aren’t bad so they weren’t terrible losses.
Usman is kind of just a wrestle/boxer. He comes from a wrestling background, and I consider his wrestling okay. It isn’t great, but he is a decent heavyweight and has a decent understanding of positioning on the mat. He can definitely beat heavyweights with grappling holes in their game. Sometimes he doesn’t always wrestle though. I have seen him not wrestle at all in fights and then wrestle tenaciously in others. So it is a bit of a guessing game to determine what his game plan will be.
I also guess Usman has okay cardio. I really was a bit surprised with his performance against Collier, and he really pulled away in the latter half of that fight.
As a striker, Usman isn’t good and I don’t think his volume has always been strong. However, he does have a little bit of power and is an okay athlete. He also outlanded Collier 83-80 at distance in his most recent win which was by far the best striking he has displayed in his career, so perhaps he has improved. Still though, he only lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.41 in return. So I can’t trust his striking too much.
Usman is just whatever. He has decent cardio for a heavyweight and can kind of wrestle and kind of strike. I don’t think he is particularly good at anything though.
Usman will be taking on Hamdy Abdelwahab who is now 2-0 in the UFC, although apparently his win against Mayes was overturned for steroids. That caused a multi-year absence before his sophomore performance against Jamal Pogues, which he won by decision.That fight was a really sloppy matchup and I thought both guys looked awful.
Abdelwahab comes from a Greco Roman wrestling background and made the Olympics in 2016, representing Egypt.
Abdelwahab has some decent takedowns and I think he can land takedowns and outgrapple weak competition. He has some decent double legs and has some Greco style takedowns in his game. He can sort of float on top. I still don’t think his takedowns and top control are all that great though. He also only attempted one takedown against Pogues, so he may not even tenaciously wrestle.
Abdelwahab is also not a great striker. He can land power based punches early. However, he is just not very good. He was outlanded 69-44 in significant strikes against Pogues and I was not impressed by that performance. Overall, I just think Abdelwahab is a guy who will beat weak grapplers in this division. However, when he can’t dominate with wrestling, he will lose to a handful of fighters as he isn’t a good striker.
As far as this matchup goes, this just seems like a sloppy fight between two wrestlers who will neutralize each other and strike. I do think either guy could land takedowns or have some type of success but I am overall leaning against that.
My guess is these guys strike a bit and it will be ugly. I honestly don’t know who I favor. Both guys suck as strikers. However, I sort of think Usman is a little more proven over the duration. I mean his striking performance vs Collier is better than anything Hamdy has done. I still don’t trust Usman though and Hamdy could land some power shots early.
My guess is we just get a sloppy, close striking fight. I will pick Usman as I trust his durational striking more and perhaps his cardio as well. However, this is a mess as neither guy is a trustworthy striker.
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On DraftKings, this fight won’t be a priority and I’d basically only be interested if one side can score a KO.
Abdelwahab is priced at 8.6k, and I suppose he has more upside of the two. I think he’s more likely to land takedowns and I also think he’s got more power on his shots. But the wrestling will surely be limited and I wouldn’t bet on the KO either. He’s only +325 to win ITD which is poor.
In his UFC debut, Abdelwahab did score 100 points, and I was on him in that spot. He landed three takedowns, with one knockdown, and more than seven minutes of control. So if he’s putting a beating on guys he can still score well.
In his most recent matchup though, he only put up 56 in a win which is the bigger concern. That came with one takedown and two minutes of control.
I’d probably project him for 1.5 takedowns here but I’m not sold on control. Usman has a seven inch reach advantage and he’s never been knocked out. So it does feel like Abdelwahab is boom or bust, and significantly more likely to fall on the bust side.
I sort of lean toward Abdelwahab being the more effective fighter of the two, but I also did sprinkle Usman at +170 early in the week because this fight has the makings of a dumb, super competitive affair. He’s a fine tournament target if he’ll be low owned, but I don’t see an easy path to a finish, so I’ll likely aim to be light on Abdelwahab this week.
Usman is priced at 7.6k and he’s viable as a low-end secondary target.
Basically, if you want 70-80 points in a win, Usman is viable. If you want more, I wouldn’t be excited.
He’s getting bet down and is in the +140 range now, so there’s real win equity at this price tag. He’s also only +375 to win ITD though and not much of a finishing threat. Also, I don’t think he’s going to have much wrestling success here.
So it does seem like the most realistic outcome is that Usman lands 0-1 takedowns and 60-70 sig. strikes in a win. He may not even reach 70 points.
I don’t love the bottom tier of fighters this week or underdogs in general, so purely based on win equity, Usman is OK. But I’d firmly cap my exposure here due to major ceiling risk, and I don’t expect to take a real stand against the field myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Usman by Decision (Confidence=Low)