Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
Fight Odds: Hernandez -131, Pereira +114
Odds to Finish: -700
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.3k, Pereira 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
We should see pure entertainment between Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira in this weekend’s main event.
Pereira was once considered a meme in this sport – a laughable fighter with closeted upside due to his poor fight IQ. He would sprint across the cage to display flying maneuvers, he would attempt backflips in the middle of the fight for no reason whatsoever, and this style completely taxed his gas tank to the point of failure.
Fortunately, he seems to have his head screwed onto his shoulders a little tighter, and it’s allowed his game to flourish, where he’s been able to achieve eight consecutive victories inside the Octagon.
Pereira is best as a distance manager, where he can kick, evade, and explode into strikes when necessary. He lands 5.16 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.70 per minute at a 58 percent defensive rate.
We’ve seen him go the distance several times now, including a solid performance against Santiago Ponzinibbio in which Pereira landed 110 significant strikes. We’ve also seen more finishing upside as of late, as he demolished Andre Petroski in 66 seconds, submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk with a standing RNC in the same amount of time, and most recently jumped on the neck of Ihor Potieria in 54 seconds.
Pereira is proving to be a pretty well-rounded fighter overall. He’s not a super dynamic wrestler but he averages 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and has defended at 94 percent. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and highly opportunistic in scrambles, which is how he was able to submit each of his past two opponents.
And his ability to limit his opponent’s attack on the feet has been key. In totality, it’s a style that should continue to lead to success in rounds.
Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez is one of the best pace grapplers in the sport today.
Coming from the Nor-Cal regional scene, I had watched Hernandez prior to the UFC and I wasn’t in love with his style. He was pretty much spamming clinch entries where his opponents would then wrestle as a counter, and Hernandez would jump on their necks and lock up guillotine chokes.
Hernandez was then almost released from the UFC after starting out 1-2, with a submission loss to Markus Perez and a quick KO loss to Kevin Holland. He’s since rattled off five consecutive victories, including four inside the distance, and I love the fact that he’s getting a main event spotlight.
Hernandez’ style has developed a bit, but largely, he just relies on the few tools he has which is cardio and wrestling. He’s not even a very strong technical wrestler, but he attempts 13.5 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 49% success rate, which is an insane pace that few opponents can keep up with.
When he gets on top, Hernandez can grind out his opponents, land ground-and-pound, or hunt for chokes in transition. I already noted his early love for guillotine chokes, but he’s also won by RNC, arm-triangle and anaconda choke within the UFC.
This style of fighting is going to continue to give him a strong chance to win, unless his opponents can neutralize his wrestling completely or put him out of the fight.
The problem is that Hernandez is also one-dimensional in this sense. He’s a very poor range striker and has almost no real win equity at distance.
Hernandez has a -1.30 striking differential at distance, and he only defends strikes at 46 percent, and I think he’s a liability to be hurt and knocked out again. Even in his most recent fight against Roman Kopylov, who is a legit striker but a weaker defensive wrestler, Kopylov stuffed some basic shots early and then landed some hard strikes that had Hernandez mildly hurt.
But Hernandez attempted 11 takedowns in round one, and although he failed on 10 of them, Kopylov was tired from wrestling by the end of the round. In round two, Hernandez attempted a few more takedowns, got Kopylov down early, and submitted him.
It’s going to make for an exciting matchup against Pereira because I think Pereira is a far superior distance striker, and should the fight play out at distance for any real length of time, I think Pereira would win comfortably and probably knock Hernandez out.
I also consider Pereira the better athlete. He’s far more physical and powerful, and he should be able to shrug off some wrestling attempts early. The only real chance Hernandez has is to wrestle at an extreme pace again, wear Pereira down, and then take over the fight.
It’s a very realistic outcome but also one that’s difficult to project, largely because Pereira hasn’t been taken down in the UFC. He’s officially been taken down once on like 20 attempts, and he was only controlled for 18 seconds in that span.
Of those attempts, 12 came against Diego Sanchez and Tristan Connelly in 2019-20 which is a pretty low bar in terms of physicality.
So based on the sample, Pereira has largely been fantastic. The sample is meaningful in some ways but meaningless in others. As one example, Pereira jumped for a guillotine choke against Connelly and failed, and was then held down for a couple minutes after that. He didn’t look great and struggled to get back up.
I still think Pereira’s physicality is an advantage for him here and it likely leads to him defending takedowns early. I also think Pereira’s submission skills could be a factor and he may use guillotine attempts to defend Hernandez. I wouldn’t rule out another early submission win for Pereira.
At the same time, if he cannot hurt Hernandez or submit him early, Pereira will likely get tired. That physical build has worn him down before, and in this type of matchup, it’s a major worry.
Once Hernandez breaks that seal and actually gets Pereira down, the fight could be over from there because Hernandez will keep pushing relentlessly, and Pereira may just be too tired to fend him off.
So I think we either see Pereira break Hernandez early in the fight, or once again we’ll see Hernandez wear him down, and take over by the middle rounds, probably finding a finish of his own at some point.
It’s a tough fight to call in terms of the winner. I tend to trust pace wrestling far more than distance striking, and Pereira has been a head case at times. I also think he has a huge physical advantage and is the far superior and effective striker at distance. So ultimately, both guys have a pretty real path to winning and there is a lot of variance that comes into play.
I may just go with the wrestler by default but as of writing the breakdown, I really struggle to pick a side.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a smash matchup to target and with 11 fights on the slate, I think both sides will be extremely popular.
Even outside of the ME aspect, both guys have crushed recently on DraftKings. Hernandez is priced at 8.3k and is coming off wins of 107, 116, 120 and 117. Pereira is priced at 7.9k and has scored 118, 95, and 103.
Given the expected dynamic of this matchup, my assumption is that the winner of this matchup should put up one of the stronger scores on the slate and contend for the optimal.
Hernandez is also the most clear cut option given his style. He is relentless with takedowns and will project for a ton of grappling equity in a win. I don’t ever throw out the term lock but Hernandez has the highest ceiling on this slate, and having moderate/heavy exposure to him makes a lot of sense.
There is more risk with Pereira’s style in that he can fight more defensively and point strike on the outside, but he just won’t have that option here. Hernandez doesn’t really have a path at distance so sure, Pereira might win round one and land only a few strikes, but if he can’t hurt or finish Hernandez then I just think he’ll eventually lose.
So in that sense, I think Pereira has a lot of finishing equity here. He’s +120 to win ITD as a +110 underdog and I’d expect a very strong score in any kind of victory. For reference Hernandez is +105 to win ITD which is also very strong.
The easiest place to start is to split your exposure down the middle, given that it’s a very competitive and binary fight on paper. My primary goal would be to have many live lineups with either winner and find the edge elsewhere.
You can always add risk to your portfolio by leaning heavily toward one side, which is viable but simply tough to choose the side. I think of the two, more will lean toward Hernandez given his grappling style and I suppose that’s who I’d pick of the two if I had to.
But the lower owned Pereira is in comparison to Hernandez, the better play he will be on paper because he will gain leverage while still holding plenty of early win equity.
This should be a super fun fight for as long as it lasts and I’ll aim to be essentially all-in with a limited portfolio, splitting between Hernandez and Pereira for the most part.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by TKO, R3 (Confidence=Low)
Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
Fight Odds: Phillips -446, Font +340
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Phillips 9.3k, Font 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I was very impressed with Kyler Phillips in his last fight against Pedro Munhoz where he won by a dominant decision. He will now get a chance to beat another UFC bantamweight mainstay in Rob Font this weekend.
Phillips is a good fighter. He is well-rounded and athletic. He lands 5.72 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.38 in return. He defends strikes at 61 percent. I like Phillips’ striking. He is fast-twitched and serviceable. He is just really fast and athletic. His speed helps him a lot. You saw that in his last matchup against Munhoz where he was just too dynamic and speedy at range for Munhoz.
I do have some criticism for Phillip’s love for spinning shit though. God man, why do fighters do this, especially when they somewhat have cardio concerns? Phillips calls himself the “Matrix” which is fine as the Matrix is a cool movie. However, throwing low percentage spinning kicks and overexerting yourself and gassing out is not cool. So I wish he would cut that shit out. He basically gassed out doing that stuff against Raulian Paiva. However, he has fought three rounds a couple of times since and his cardio and pacing looked great.
I still do quite like Phillips on the feet though. He is good and his metrics are fantastic. I do think he should stick to the basics though.
Phillips is also a good grappler. Phillips lands 2.41 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about five takedowns per fight. I really like the timing of Phillips’ level change/double leg as well. It is quite good.
Phillips holds a BJJ black belt and is quite good at passing in top position, landing GnP, taking the back, and threatening with submissions. He can really take advantage of weak grapplers. He also has solid tdd at 75 percent.
Overall, Phillips is just a talented fighter with no major holes other than being a bit too flashy and overexerting himself at times. I do think he can make a run in this division.
Phillips will be taking on Rob Font who is coming off a decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo.
Font is generally a good fighter. He fights at a high pace and has a ton of offense in his game. I generally consider him a striker and he has a great jab that compliments his length. Font lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.65 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent. He has good metrics and is a solid striker. He also has reasonable pop and is capable of hurting guys.
Font is also a reasonably capable grappler. He lands 0.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing some takedowns and offense on the mat from time to time.
I have generally always really liked Font as a fighter. However, with all of that being said, I really do think he has looked off lately. His competition has been stellar. However, he is getting badly hurt in almost every fight and almost every round nowadays. He also gave up 11 takedowns in his last two fights and is only defending takedowns at 46 percent now. He just looks declined which makes sense given he is now 37 years old which is an advanced age for a bantamweight. I think my confidence in him has just generally decreased. I won’t completely write him off yet but I am heading in that direction.
As far as this matchup goes, I just have to go with Phillips here who is the younger fresher fighter. Phillips is eight years younger than Font and just looks so much more lively than Font nowadays.
On the feet, I do think Font can potentially compete with his pace and jab. However, Phillips is just younger and faster and I think him hurting Font is extremely likely considering a gust of wind seems to hurt Font nowadays.
I also think Phillips can mix in takedowns here. He is a better wrestler than Font and Font has been surrendering takedowns too easily lately.
Overall, I just think Phillips is the younger and faster fighter here who should be able to cover Font everywhere. I also think Phillips is just so much more likely to knock Font out than vice versa. If the old Font shows up, I do think he can compete. However, I think Font’s best days are behind him.
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On DraftKings, Phillips is going to rate out as a pretty decent top-end option at 9.3k, and he feels like one of the safer targets on the card.
It’s tough because I’ve always been a fan of Font, and historically, Font can compete against anyone. But he gets hurt a lot, and he’s given up takedowns and control too easily lately. Phillips isn’t perfect, but he has multiple paths to win and he’s also difficult to chase down and land offense on.
So in general, we have to project Phillips for a fair amount of volume, some grappling, and some KD equity. He’s only +215 to win ITD though so a KO is far from certain.
With the Hadley switch-up, Phillips will be pretty affordable and pretty popular I’d expect. Not as popular as Despaigne, so maybe he’ll work best as a pivot in this range, though I think many will play both.
The more popular he gets though, the more concern I have in that his floor is much better than his ceiling. Phillips has scored 76, 77, 99 and 73 in his last four wins, which is far from ideal.
I still feel like he’ll be owned a lot because he’s now the biggest favorite on the slate, and some other pivots in this range like Edwards and Johnson are historically even worse scorers. I also do like the theoretical upside for Phillips.
I’m just a little worried with the slate dynamics that he’ll be more popular than he should be as well, and he’s a little more geared toward safety than upside. If that happens I wouldn’t mind taking extra risks on the upper 8k range instead.
Font at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
The primary argument for him is that he’s a talented fighter, and his level of competition has been elite. Maybe he can turn back the clock a bit and fight competitively at distance.
It’s just still not a recipe to score a lot of points as Phillips barely gets hit, and Font won’t be shooting takedowns. Font is +600 to win ITD which is really poor too.
Outside of a dart throw, I just don’t love the fantasy potential for Font in this matchup and I’ll be very light on him this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Phillips by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
Fight Odds: Johnson -220, Sumudaerji +186
Odds to Finish: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson 8.8k, Sumudaerji 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty fun fight here between Charles Johnson and Sumudaerji.
Johnson is coming off the best win of his career, knocking out Joshua Van in an absolute banger of a fight. It was cool to see Johnson win that fight as I thought he was being unfairly written off going in that fight.
Johnson is 5-4 in the UFC and I mostly consider him a striker. He attempts takedowns here and there. However, I expect striking to be his path to victory generally.
I think Johnson is best as a striker. He is actually a decent boxer, and I do think he is slick from time to time with his hands. He lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.45 in return which are some great metrics. I think he can strike with most fighters in this division honestly. He also has some power and is very durable. He has never been knocked out or submitted in his career.
Johnson is an okay defensive wrestler but not a great one. He defends takedowns at 67 percent and was outwrestled badly by Muhammad Mokaev. Johnson at least can kind of defend takedowns and looks to work up to his feet which I like.
Johnson only lands 0.38 takedowns per fifteen minutes and attempts a couple of takedowns per fight. Like I mentioned above, I don’t expect offensive wrestling to generally be a path to victory for him at this level. However, he may want to wrestle a bit here against Sumudaerji who is horrendous on the mat.
Speaking of Mudaerji, he is coming off a submission loss to Tim Elliott. Mudaerji is legitimately one of the worst grapplers in the UFC. It is very rare to see a fighter in the lower weight classes this bad on the mat. He is absolutely awful when he is grounded and gives up advances of position, and can be pummeled with ground and pound or submitted easily by a quality grappler.
I do think Sumudaerji has some decent first-layer tdd though. He defends takedowns at 66 percent and can defend some tds here and there. When he gives up a takedown though, he is just awful on the mat.
Sumudaerji is a very dangerous striker though. He is tall at 5’8” which is huge for this division. He also fights long and controls range well, fighting out of the southpaw stance. He has a piston left hand and is very accurate and powerful with it. He also has a good kicking game. He can absolutely hurt people on the feet in this division. He lands 4.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.73 in return.
I do think Sumudaerji has suspect durability though. He has been hurt a few times in the UFC now and even Matt Schnell was hurting him badly on the feet.
As far as this matchup goes, Johnson definitely has more paths to victory and is the more durable fighter, so I do have to pick him to win.
On the feet, I do think Sumudaerji can win. He is a decent striker. However, I would still actually favor Johnson on the feet. I just trust Johnson’s experience, durability, and consistency more. I think both guys will land. However, I would expect Johnson to eventually get ahead on the numbers and be the more likely party to hurt Sumudaerji.
Johnson could make his life way easier if he decides to wrestle here. Honestly, one takedown and Johnson could really dominate. Johnson is competent on the mat and has four submission wins in his career. I am not completely counting on Johnson wrestling. However, if he does just get on top of Sumudaerji for whatever reason, he could dominate which justifies him being a favorite.
I don’t know how Johnson will fight. My guess is he will strike generally and maybe look to wrestle here and there. He definitely has more paths to victory though and I just trust him more than Sumudaerji.
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On DraftKings, Johnson is the preferred target at 8.8k though he’s a clear risk.
The risk essentially is that he may not wrestle, as it’s never been a priority for him. While he could still win the fight standing, he won’t be a major scoring threat there and I wouldn’t really want to roster him.
In decision wins thus far, Johnson has scored 72, 73 and 83, which just isn’t enough. I don’t think he will land tons of striking volume in this matchup anyways, so it’s simply not a great spot.
The only upside is that Johnson could choose to grapple given Sumudaerji’s weaknesses on the mat. If that happens, Johnson has multi-takedown upside, control and finishing upside as well. He did take down Maksum twice in 2024, so there’s hope.
Johnson is +210 to win ITD which is reasonable, all things considered. It’s hard to recommend him excitedly as he may not even optimize his path to win or to score well.
But if he chooses to wrestle, he definitely has upside for his price and he could be underowned publicly as well on a short slate. I don’t mind Johnson as a pivot in this range and having some exposure in large fields makes sense if you have room in your portfolio.
Sumudaerji at 7.4k is a low-end target for me. The problem with fading him outright is that he could realistically win a pure striking fight. He has some KO upside in his style.
However, his last decision win scored 50 points. His decision win prior to that scored 81 points. He’s only +550 to win ITD in this matchup which is quite poor, and I don’t think he’s likely to hurt and finish Johnson.
At 7.4k with a low public ownership on a short slate, you could talk me into a bit of Sumudaerji just based on win equity. However, his ceiling is very questionable and he’ll be a low-end priority overall because of it.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jake Hadley vs. Cameron Smotherman
Fight Odds: Hadley -512, Smotherman +380
Odds to Finish: Under 2.5 RDs -155
DraftKings Salaries: Hadley 7.7k, Smotherman 6.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After Jake Hadley’s original opponent Brady Hiestand dropped out of their scheduled bout, UFC debutant Cameron Smotherman will step in on four days’ notice to replace Hiestand and face Hadley this weekend.
Smotherman actually fought about a year ago on the Contender Series where he was knocked out by Charalampos Grigoriou in the first round. Not much happened in that fight. Smotherman was knocked out in a minute after a few tepid exchanges.
Smotherman is 11-4 professionally with most of his fights coming in Fury FC. I mostly consider him a boxer who has a bit of power. He has six wins by knockout and I do think he is a mild to moderate power threat. He generally likes to counter box on the feet and he will probably have to win by knockout to consistently win at this level.
Other than that, I don’t consider Smotherman all that great. His volume isn’t always there on the feet, and I question his defensive striking a bit as well. I am not even sure he is a very good striker and he is basically a guy who likes to exclusively strike. He doesn’t wrestle all that much offensively.
Defensively as a grappler, I do think Smotherman has decent first layer tdd. However, if people chain takedowns together on Smotherman, he can get taken down and put in bad spots. I have seen him mounted and put in very bad positions on the mat. Overall, Smotherman is probably dependent on knockouts to win at this level. He will also get beaten on the mat at this level as well.
Smotherman will be taking on Jake Hadley. Hadley is 11-3 professionally and is 3-3 in the UFC and I think he is okay. He will strike and grapple a bit and he has won many fights by submission. Apparently he is only a purple belt from what I read but I do think he is better than that.
I don’t consider Hadley’s wrestling good though. He lands 0.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and only attempts a little over one takedown per fight. He sometimes likes to land takedowns and work his top game. He can either float on top in someone’s guard or take the back and lock in body triangles. He likes to take the back a lot and his RNC is his best submission.
Hadley has been taken down in many fights and controlled though. He defends takedowns at 54 percent. I do think he has decent sweeps from bottom, and he at least tries to work up and does have a good guard and submission capability. However, we have just seen him stuck on bottom a little too long against Cody Durden and Allan Nascimento.
On the feet, Hadley is okay. He lands 3.76 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.72 in return. He will pressure opponents and look to land his one two straight punch combination. Standing out of the southpaw stance, he will also mix in a rear kick. I think he is okay on the feet but nothing special either.
Hadley is very mediocre. He is competent as a striker and grappler, but he is not the best wrestler so he can just lose positional battles in general. He does seem very tough though and has never been finished in his professional career.
As far as this matchup goes, Hadley just seems like a more well rounded fighter and battle tested so I have to pick him to win.
On the feet, I probably favor Hadley. I think he throws more consistent offense, and I like his durability more as well. Perhaps Smotherman can land a big shot or land a knockout. However, Hadley has literally never been finished in his career and seems so tough. I would be pretty surprised if Smotherman knocked Hadley out.
Hadley is also surely a better submission grappler here. If he gets Smotherman down, he will probably get his back and submit him.
The issue is that Hadley isn’t the most effective wrestler. So Smotherman may be able to keep this standing for stretches. Still though, one sequence in this fight that turns into top position for Hadley could be a fight changer. So Hadley being favored makes sense.
Furthermore, Smotherman is taking this on short notice. He is at a built-in disadvantage going in. So I have to pick Hadley to win. I also just have trouble picking a knockout dependent fighter like Smotherman when he is being matched against a durable fighter. So I think Hadley should get this done.
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On DraftKings, I’m now expecting Hadley to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate at 7.7k, given the new matchup.
He is currently lined near -500 to win, which would make him the biggest favorite on the card outright. In that sense, he should probably be priced at 9.5k so he is an extreme DK value.
On a short slate, with a generally weak tier of underdogs, the public should flock to Hadley for this reason alone. And I understand it, he will rate out exceptionally well for the price, and is a lock in cash games.
My primary issue is that Hadley isn’t a processed fighter. His best skill set by far is his submission grappling, but he does not wrestle. He has landed one takedown in seven UFC/DWCS fights, and he barely attempts any takedowns as well. This in theory is a better matchup for him to wrestle than some previous matchups, so perhaps he will change it up, but it’s tough to be confident.
From a DK standpoint, if Hadley doesn’t wrestle, I don’t really want exposure to him. While he could still win striking exchanges, he’s not a historic knockout threat and is coming off a clear decision win in which he only put up 68 points. That’s a fine score but it’s a recipe to chop a tournament a million times if that score is actually optimal.
The upside case is that he should have a clear grappling advantage and could definitely find a submission along the way. Maybe it just takes one early takedown and that’s it. Maybe Smotherman gets tired after a round and just kinda falls over at some point.
Hadley doesn’t have an ITD line yet but the fight is -155 to go Under 2.5 rounds, so I expect his finishing prop to be strong. He will have clear upside given his grappling advantages and can definitely be prioritized in this range in all formats.
I just want to make the point that Hadley is not a processed fighter, so his safety is not clear cut. He may not choose to wrestle or may not have success with the one takedown he typically attempts per fight. If that happens, you’re suddenly betting on a random KO which is a far more risky outcome at what’s likely to be massive chalk.
I’ll end up with a lot of Hadley most likely, by default, but I don’t think he’s a clear smash and I wouldn’t mind coming in underweight in large fields given the slate dynamic.
Smotherman is priced at 6.7k, and he’s the biggest dog on the card.
I don’t really have interest in him. He doesn’t rate out as a great prospect, and he doesn’t have real wrestling upside. If he did wrestle, that would probably give Hadley a chance to submit him.
Otherwise, Smotherman is a low-volume boxer with some KD equity. I wouldn’t bet on it and I’d rather play most other dogs on the slate. Outside of dart/sprinkle for leverage in a large portfolio, I’ll just be avoiding Smotherman this week on DK.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hadley by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda
Fight Odds: Pineda -107, Elkins -107
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Pineda 8.2k, Elkins 8k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I think this fight between Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda has a chance to be fight of the night as I expect both of these guys to bring it and go after one another.
Man… Darren Elkins is still doing the damn thing. I have a soft spot for this guy as he has been around forever and he always fights his heart out. He is almost too tough for his own good, but he has really entertained the fans over the years. He also cashed for us as an underdog in his last matchup against TJ Brown which was awesome to see.
You know what you are going to get with Elkins. He is a solid wrestler. He lands 2.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 35 percent. So not only is he landing a lot of takedowns per fight, he is also attempting a lot and has the cardio to wrestle all day. Against Eduardo Garagorri, Elkins landed seven of a whopping 21 takedowns attempted in a fight that lasted 12 minutes. He also managed to get 7:34 of control before choking Garagorri out. He also outwrestled Tristan Connelly a year ago as well. Then he outwrestled TJ Brown in his last matchup and landed five takedowns.
Elkins isn’t very good as a striker and it is almost uncomfortable to watch, but he does land 3.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.27. He isn’t awful striking but he just isn’t good either. He more just tries to pace guys. Elkins is very hittable on the feet and he does not react to getting hit with shots well.
Anytime Elkins gets hit, he looks uncomfortable and I get nervous for him. He can be cut open with the smallest strikes so it sometimes looks like he is losing fights even if he is competing well.
However, Elkins still can do what he does. He can wrestle in volume and at a high pace. He is still good at chain wrestling and advancing position on the mat, and can still find submissions. I do think he is a lesser version of himself now, particularly with the explosiveness of his takedowns, but I still feel like he is totally capable of outgrappling fighters with grappling holes.
Elkins can be taken down a bit as he only defends takedowns at 56 percent. However, Elkins has legitimately fought some of the best wrestlers at featherweight and he is capable of working up from the bottom.
I do worry about Elkins’ durability at this point as he just doesn’t react to getting hit well but facts are facts. He has still only been finished three times in his career. He was submitted by Charles Oliveira and Chad Mendes knocked him out, which were both over eight years ago. The only other time he was finished was against Ricardo Lamas in the third round by KO where he wasn’t even totally out. It was more so an accumulation stoppage. So Elkins still is durable and he is still a savvy grappler who has only been submitted one time in his UFC career.
Elkins will be taking on Daniel Pineda. Pineda is okay. He has some skills and is somewhat dangerous. He is an okay striker. He lands 2.96 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.34 in return. He is dangerous and is capable of knocking guys out and hurting them.
However, I just don’t trust Pineda as a striker over the course of fifteen minutes. Swanson and Fili both doubled him up and were dominating him before the fights ended. I kind of just question Pineda’s durability and cardio, and ability to fight through 15 minutes. He also looked really bad on the feet vs Nathaniel Wood and was hurt numerous times on the feet. He also seems to tire on the feet as the fight goes on.
Pineda is a dangerous submission grappler as well though. I don’t consider him a great wrestler or anything but he is decent and capable of landing takedowns here and there. He has a lot of submission wins in his career and I consider it a path to victory for him at this level.
He only defends takedown at 48 percent and I do question his TDD. He can be taken down and held down a bit. However, I do think he is crafty in bottom position with his sweeps. He swept Wood and is capable of reversing position at times.
Pineda is decent. He can strike and grapple in spots and has finishing upside in general. He has never won a decision in his career which spans 44 fights though.
As far as this matchup goes, I mostly lean Elkins because of his cardio. Elkins can fight very hard for 15 minutes and we have seen Pineda tire and wilt later in fights. I do think Pineda’s cardio has been a bit better lately, as he’s physically made it to the scorecards, but Elkins pushes a pace and over the course of 15 minutes I do think Elkins has the cardio upside.
On the feet, I do think Pineda can hurt or knock Elkins out early, or cut him open because Elkins bleeds so easily. However, I sneakily think Elkins may have the advantage on the feet down the stretch because of his pace. Both guys have issues on the feet for different reasons but I really do like the overall volume of Elkins more on the feet.
I think Elkins is a better positional wrestler here too and will generally win the top position battle. Pineda is very dangerous with submissions but I do think Elkins has demonstrated great submission defense in his career, so Elkins can probably survive on the mat.
I still think Pineda can take Elkins down too though or maybe even sweep Elkins. Pineda is better at getting top position than I had remembered before taping this fight and if he gets some top position vs Elkins I would not be surprised. However, I just trust the wrestling process of Elkins more and combined with his cardio, I think Elkins has what it takes to win this fight.
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On DraftKings, I feel pretty good about targeting this fight in the mid-range, given the historics of both fighters.
Pineda is priced at 8.2k and he has more early finishing upside of the two. Again, he’s never won a decision in his career at age 39, so his wins have only come ITD.
Elkins is tough and durable but he’s very easy to cut and hurt, and it’s only gotten worse. Pineda has early KO/SUB upside and is +140 to win ITD which means he’ll rate out pretty well.
At the same time, Elkins will bend but is tough to break. It feels a bit scary to load up on Pineda when he probably needs to do the majority of his work in round one. I’m willing to take chances on him for 8.2k though, just given the short slate and upside on paper.
Elkins is still my preferred target for the reasons Tim laid out. He can wrestle in volume and should have the superior cardio in this matchup.
Elkins last three wins have scored 111, 117 and 122, and in that span he’s won by DEC/TKO/SUB which is cool to see. It just shows that regardless of the method of victory, Elkins’ style is going to lead to success on DK.
In this particular matchup, I guess I have concerns about Elkins falling off a cliff and not having physicality to compete anymore. But he will try, and Pineda has given up takedowns to worse competition. Pineda has also been finished a handful of times and Elkins is +200 to win ITD which is decent.
I definitely trust Elkins more as the fight extends, and his primary path to victory is that grind. You could argue he’s one of the more intriguing fighters on this slate given his price tag, and upside.
My expectation is both fighters end up popular just due to the matchup dynamics and strong history of DK scoring on both sides. Pineda will rate out better for finishing upside but Elkins has the obvious wrestling upside.
On this particular slate, I think I’m willing to invest heavily in this fight as a whole. The winner just projects to score quite strongly in a victory and at their prices, the winner should also contend for the optimal.
I will likely lean mildly toward Elkins (or moderately with a limited portfolio) but I have no problem if you want to split your action or lean toward Pineda either. It should be a fun fight in real life and one that hopefully produces a decent DK score.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Elkins by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev
Fight Odds: Almabayev -201, Nicolau +171
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Almabayev 8.7k, Nicolau 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
Coming off a disappointing main event knockout loss, Matheus Nicolau will look to rebound against a very tough up-and-comer in Asu Almabayev.
Almabayev is now 20-2 professionally, and he’s earned three wins by knockout and nine by submission.
He is a processed grappler, which is my favorite style to back, and I expect him to continue to have success in this division.
Almabayev is a bit small, but I think he’s a strong technical wrestler and grappler, and he has cardio to fight for a hard 15 minutes. That’s going to give him a strong floor per round, especially against any defensively questionable opponents.
Thus far, Almabayev has beaten Jose Johnson, Ode Osbourne and CJ Vergara, who are all mediocre opponents. He took down and controlled Osbourne before RNC’ing him in the second round, and then he took Vergara down nine times en route to a clear decision.
Most recently, he took Jose Johnson down six times on 11 attempts and controlled him for 11.5 minutes en route to a decision.
His relentless wrestling attack is still the most impressive thing about his game to me. Getting takedowns, taking the back and locking in the RNC is probably the most preferred method of victory. It shows a strong process and is the most replicable type of finish.
And then shooting for 10+ takedowns over 15 minutes consistently, landing six-nine of them, and continuing to press forward shows offensive production upside, as well as strong cardio.
There’s an argument to make that Almabayev isn’t highly developed outside of these aspects, but as far as his wrestling and grappling, I think he’s very strong.
As far as his striking, I have some concerns. He has been throwing a lot of spinning attacks both outside and inside the UFC, which I hate. They don’t land often, and it can put you in danger defensively.
He still has absorbed only 1.00 sig. strikes per minute, and went toe-to-toe with Vergara on the feet, so I think while fights play out upright, Almabayev can survive. But I don’t think he’ll clearly be winning and it will be a means to an end which is ultimately his grappling.
Eventually, my guess is we’ll see Almabayev hit a ceiling where he cannot easily control opponents, and his game might break down from there. He does have one TKO loss on the regionals but that came against Tagir Ulanbekov in 2017, so it’s forgivable.
For now, I’ll be backing Almabayev against any opponent with grappling question marks.
Matheus Nicolau mostly thrives as a neutralizer. He lands 3.62 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.19 per minute with an impressive 66 percent defensive rate.
He’s often on the back foot, letting his opponent be the aggressor, and he will look to counter at a pretty low volume. Technically, Nicolau is fine, and he’s defensively sound, but he’s just not the most dynamic offensive threat and that will limit his ceiling in this division.
Similarly as a grappler, Nicolau lands 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends them at 93 percent, which is great. He’s a BJJ black belt but he’s not a major submission threat, and he’s only landed four total takedowns in his last seven fights.
At best, Nicolau is the type to edge out rounds on effectiveness, but he’ll rarely pull away dominantly. He does have some power and can occasionally hurt opponents, or take them down, but neither of those outcomes are extremely consistent ones.
Despite all these issues he was favored over Alex Perez in the main event last time out, and was again knocked out in the second round. It just continues to add layers to the overall questions/concerns I have within his game and style.
I don’t think his chin will be of concern in this fight though. Almabayev is not a major knockout threat and if anything, I would favor Nicolau mildly/moderately over the course of 15 minutes in a pure kickboxing fight.
I would still expect Almabayev to have some moments, but he won’t throw at a high volume. Neither man will, and neither man absorbs much either. I would expect Nicolau to edge out a very slow paced fight on the feet, with a small bit of KO equity on either side.
Additionally, Nicolau has historically strong takedown defense. He’s been taken down literally one time in 10 UFC fights, so it’s very fair to question whether he can stuff Almabayev here.
My best guess is that he won’t be able to. His lone takedown allowed came to Tim Elliot, who is the best wrestler Nicolau has fought so far. And although Elliot went 1/10 on takedowns, he had success early with a body lock.
He dragged Nicolau down to the ground, and controlled him in that position in the clinch. The difference is that Almabayev is able to hold that position for a lot longer than Elliot, and also, Almayabev can take advantage of that position by putting his hooks in.
I think there’s a pretty realistic chance that Almabayev can just grind out another three rounds here. I’m not sure it would look too exciting and I don’t give him a great chance to finish, but 4-5 takedowns over three rounds, with a few strikes mixed in feels like a pretty realistic scenario to me.
Still, Nicolau could scramble up better than I expect, and edge out Almabayev on the feet. That’s possible as well. Maybe Nicolau can land 1 takedown too though I don’t think he’d do much with it.
I’ll take the wrestler here to continue his ways and get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, I will likely be playing Almabayev at 8.7k though it’s not a guaranteed hit.
He has scored 105, 118 and 105 in his three wins, and the former two came by decision. He was priced at 9.5k in his last two matchups as well, so we’re getting a great discount here at 8.7k.
His style just carries too much upside in it. And I don’t think this is a one takedown and you’re done situation. He probably will need several takedowns to really earn the control necessary and he’s proven willing to chase it.
At 8.7k, I think it’s quite likely Almabayev can exceed value on a short slate and contend for the optimal lineup in a win. So even with a +300 ITD line, I will likely be on him this week due to pure wrestling potential.
Nicolau at 7.5k feels like a terrible play but I will give you the case for him anyway.
He shouldn’t be too popular, and he’s shown some KO/KD upside in the past. Almabayev has lost by KO before and Nicolau has shown great takedown defense in the UFC.
In theory, he could force striking exchanges, and then get a little lucky and hurt Almabayev at some point. At 7.5k with leverage, it’s not the worst large-field spot.
However he is only +550 to win ITD which is an indication of his questionable KO upside. He won’t wrestle a lot and he may not wrestle at all. He barely throws strikes anyways.
And if Almabayev is having any success at all, Nicolau will be ceding control. It’s not a great recipe to score points and gives him a very low floor, with a clear path to underperforming, even in a close, striking-based decision win.
You don’t have to fade him but I probably won’t invest much with a limited portfolio myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almabayev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
Fight Odds: Matsumoto -216, Katona +182
Odds to Finish: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Matsumoto 9k, Katona 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a dominant decision win against Jesse Butler a few months back, Brad Katona will now be facing a much tougher test against the young Jean Matsumoto.
Katona has always been a solid fighter, and he never deserved to get cut from the UFC in the first place. So I was happy to see him earn his way back to the promotion where he belongs when he won the Ultimate Fighter for a second time in 2023.
Katona is a bit of a generalist. I wouldn’t say he is great anywhere, but he has no holes and can fight in all areas. He is also extremely tough, and has never been finished in 17 pro fights and four TUF fights against very good competition.
I also like Katona’s cardio a lot. He landed 164 significant strikes in three rounds vs Cody Gibson, didn’t slow down and was the fresher man later in that fight. He was also the fresher man in his matchup against Garret Armfield.
As a striker, I don’t think Katona is incredible or anything, but he is technical with some decent hands and kicks. I do think his defense could be a bit better, but overall he is a blue collar striker which I don’t mind. He lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.55 in return.
As a grappler, Katona is decent. He is capable of landing takedowns and is a decent submission grappler. He sneakily has a submission win over Bryce Mitchell on TUF years back. He also landed four takedowns against Armfield. He is capable of advancing position and obtaining dominant positions. He is also a capable defensive grappler and is tough to hold down.
Katona is also so battle tested and experienced. Like I said, he has never been finished in all of these fights and his competition has been good. He has some really good wins over Cody Gibson, Timur Valiev, Bryce Mitchell, and Kyler Phillips.
Katona will be taking on Jean Matsumoto who won by submission in his last matchup against Dan Argueta. Matsumoto was taken down nine times in that fight and was losing early. However, he kept resisting and working up, and eventually submitted the exhausted Argueta.
Matsumoto is 15-0 and has generally fought poor competition. Matsumoto booked his ticket to the UFC by winning a decision on the Contender Series against Kasey Tanner. Matsumoto landed 100 significant strikes and absorbed 99 in that fight. He was rightfully awarded the decision as he landed the more impactful strikes and some nasty low kicks.
Matsumoto is kind of a freestyle fighter, but I think he is best as a striker. He is somewhat technical and powerful as a striker. He can put together some okay boxing combinations, has a little power, and has some good low kicks. He also has decent volume.
I still don’t think Matsumoto is all that great on the feet though. He is a bit hittable and slow for my liking, but I do think he can outstrike the low to mid tier fighters in this division.
Matsumoto can also occasionally land takedowns and he has a dangerous guillotine choke. I don’t think he is a great offensive wrestler though, and I think his top game is nonexistent.
I question the defensive wrestling of Matsumoto as well a bit. I have seen this guy taken down a lot against somewhat weak wrestlers, and Argueta had a lot of success as well. His tdd isn’t terrible though and occasionally he can put together a decent sprawl or threaten with a guillotine. His TDD isn’t good though either, and I have seen him controlled for stretches in fights. He at least works up and is physical though, and is always resisting which can cause opponents to tire though.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is very competitive and the line may be too wide.
On the feet, I think this is close. I think both guys will land and it will go back and forth. I probably favor Matsumoto mildly because of his low kicks and power though. However, Katona is a more skilled striker than Argueta and many guys Matsumoto has faced, and I don’t think Katona is in over his head standing. Matsumoto does seem more dangerous though.
I do think Katona can land takedowns here and get some stretches of top position. Katona also doesn’t gas so he shouldn’t fall into the same trap that Argueta did by overexerting himself. Matsumoto is physical and can probably resist some of the wrestling of Katona and maybe work up though. However, I really do think Katona can have some occasional stretches of top control which makes this fight interesting.
I think this is close. I will mildly side with Matsumoto because I do think he is maybe the more damaging and effective striker who will land the better shots. However, this will likely be back and forth and seems super likely to go to the scorecards with Katona landing some occasional takedowns. This has split decision written all over it.
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On DraftKings, I’m open to the idea that Matsumoto is a decent prospect, and that he can perform well and get past Katona, but I struggle to play him often at 9k.
He can produce offense, but for example on DWCS where Matsumoto landed 100 sig. strikes, he would have only scored in the low 70s.
Of course if he can land a bunch of TDs, or win by KO/SUB, his ceiling will be higher like we saw in his UFC debut 92-point win. This just isn’t the best matchup for finishing equity, and Matsumoto is only +260 to win ITD.
I think Matsumoto has a pretty decent floor in a win because this fight should be high paced. On a short slate, perhaps he could squeak his way onto the optimal if the rest of the range sucks, or if he randomly gets a KD. He rates out somewhat similarly to Phillips priced ahead of him, though Matsumoto has less KO and grappling upside.
It’s just not an ideal matchup to hit a pure ceiling and that’s what makes me the most nervous. I’d rather take a cautious approach with him in this matchup personally but he’s fine to mix in.
Katona at 7.2k is very viable on the other hand, largely due to floor.
Not only is Katona a decent fighter, with good cardio, but Matsumoto has yielded 55+ DK points both on DWCS and in his UFC debut.
Katona could very realistically land a few takedowns, 70 significant strikes, and score in the 40 point range in a loss. On a short slate, at 7.2k, he’s very cheap and has a decent shot to outscore the rest of this bottom tier if they all lose.
Of course, win equity is important too. Katona doesn’t have a ton of it on paper but I do think the fight could be competitive and he might be undervalued a bit. His ITD line is poor at +900 but he’ll need a lot of offense and some grappling to win, so I still think his ceiling is moderate.
You don’t have to get carried away by this spot as Katona could be popular by default, and he very well might lose. But I like the floor and competitive nature of the matchup, and for the price, I consider him a decent secondary target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Matsumoto by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal
Fight Odds: Edwards -253, Vidal +210
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Edwards 8.9k, Vidal 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim,
We have an extremely low-level matchup here between Joselyn Edwards and Tamires Vidal.
Edwards isn’t completely awful, but she is just super green. She is athletic and has some speed but she lacks skills in certain areas.
Edwards is an okay range striker. She lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.29 in return. She has had some decent volume performances. She landed 88 significant strikes against Wu Yanan, 164 significant strikes against Ramona Pascual, and 101 against Kim.
Edwards likes to utilize kicks to the body to score points, clear distance and manage range. Managing range is probably what she does best. I don’t trust her as much in boxing range.
Edwards has had defensive wrestling issues in the UFC as well. She isn’t completely awful as a defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 60 percent. However, she is just very green off her back and is a candidate to continue to be controlled on the mat.
Edwards is actually not bad if she gets top position though. She can get hooks in and threaten on top and land GNP. She only lands 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes but she actually landed five takedowns against Nora Cornolle, in a fight that she should have won, which was nice to see. Edwards showed she can land takedowns and ride top position against low-level opponents.
Edwards will be taking on Tamires Vidal. Vidal is 7-3 professionally with most of her wins coming in random Brazilian regional promotions. She is an okay striker. She has some power on the feet with some random diverse strikes. However, I don’t think she is super skilled.
Vidal is somewhat decent in the clinch as well and she can land some takedowns here and there to get top position. She has won by submission twice in her career, and she likes to go to heel hooks which I don’t like as it can result in losing position.
Vidal made her UFC debut against Ramona Pascual. She was basically tied on distance strikes in the middle of round one and landed a flying knee to the body and won by knockout. It seemed a bit random to me.
Vidal then fought Montserrat Rendon and lost a split decision. The striking was competitive and Vidal outlanded Rendon 60-55 in significant strikes. Vidal was taken down three times though and didn’t show a good get up game. Vidal was then dominated against Melissa Gatto. She was taken down easily a couple of times and then got knocked out by a punch to the body against Gatto.
Overall, Vidal just isn’t a talented fighter. She looks like a defensive wrestling liability and is not much of an offensive wrestling threat. On the feet, she can mildly compete and throw some occasional power shots but that is about it.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Edwards because she has more paths to victory.
On the feet, I think this is pretty competitive. Ewards looks better on the outside with her range and kicking game. However, Vidal may have a power advantage on the inside. I would probably favor Edwards on the feet based on some of her past volume performances and because of her experience, but the striking is a bit of a mess.
I think Edwards has sneaky wrestling upside here though. Vidal has surrendered all five takedowns that she has faced in the UFC and doesn’t look like she knows how to get to her feet. Edwards recently landed five takedowns against Nora Cornolle. If Edwards wrestles moderately, I absolutely think she can land takedowns and ride top position here. On the other hand, I doubt Vidal can even get Edwards down.
So I am going to go with Edwards here. The striking will be close but because Edwards can potentially bank a round or two with takedowns is enough for me to pick her.
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On DraftKings, Edwards is an interesting contrarian option at 8.9k and one place I will aim to be unique with this week.
Basically, I’d have no interest in Edwards in a pure kickboxing fight which is the major risk here, as she typically does not wrestle and may not wrestle. She may win and land 100 strikes, but that is far from what we’d need for her to contend for the optimal lineup.
Her real upside to me lies in the fact that Vidal looked atrocious on her back in her last fight. She had no takedown defense and had no clue what she was doing on the bottom.
It is extremely scary to trust Edwards to wrestle, as she’s not great, but if she simply tries, she could get to advantageous positions. Wrestling scores very well on DK so if she was to wrestle moderately, I’d actually be interested.
Edwards won’t rate out well in total with a +375 ITD line, and a weak DK history. But that should also keep her ownership light compared to other fighters in this range.
I still consider it a decent large field target. Despite the risk, being unique is super valuable on a short slate. There just aren’t many other places to go that still have upside, unless you want to avoid fighters like Hadley or the main event.
I don’t think you have to be heavy on Edwards, and she’s a very comparable play to Charles Johnson, but I do like her as one pivot option in this range and wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to the field.
Vidal at 7.3k is live in the sense that we often see WMMA dogs come through in low-level matchups.
Vidal just looks so bad, but she has some power and Edwards can’t really defend takedowns either. I think a win for Vidal would be sloppy and close, but she could still pull it off.
She won’t rate out well though with minimal wrestling equity on paper and a +550 ITD line. There are other dogs I like in this range more for floor purposes and for upside. But Vidal should be quite low owned and using her as a low-end secondary target is reasonable.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
Fight Odds: Reed -181, Penne +155
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Reed 8.6k, Penne 7.6k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jessica Penne’s one of the OGs of WMMA who made her pro debut all the way back in 2006. She’s been in the UFC for 10 years but has been a very inactive fighter through her run due to injury and issues with USADA. She’s currently riding a 2-fight skid and will be turning 42 years old in January – she’s 3-5 in the UFC and 14-7 as a pro. Elise Reed’s rounding out her 4th year on the active roster and has been the dictionary definition of a hot and cold fighter trading wins and losses – she’s 3-4 in the UFC and 7-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Penne isn’t the best striker in the world to put it politely.
She’s long for the weight class standing 5’5” with a 67” reach, but doesn’t use it well from a range perspective and her overall striking acumen is just poor in general.
Penne does have a decent clinch game though from the plum where she can land good knees. But her metrics atrocious landing 2.9 SLpM at 32% and she eats 6.1 SApM at 44%
In her defense, the numbers are somewhat skewed based on her fights with Joanna and Andrade where she took absolute shit kickings – both girls were the two best strawweight’s at the time so no shame, but Penne took life altering beatings nonetheless.
But the fight I really want to hit on was her fight against Taylor (no longer in the UFC and went 2-3 in the promotion). She kept up on numbers numerically only getting out struck by three significant strikes, but the tale of that fight is different.
Taylor just circled the outside, blitzed into the pocket when she wanted and landed with consistency – winning a UD 29-28.
Penne came on later in the fight but more so that was attributed to Taylor just coasting because she banked two rounds already. In general, she was out struck and lost 10+ minutes of that fight to a 5-foot girl with a 60” reach from the outside, bad look.
She was also out struck by Godinez 40-31 and Godinez landed at a 54% clip.
She more recently just got schooled standing by Ducote largely and got her legs chewed with kicks.
The moral of the story is that she’s lower output traditionally, doesn’t have power, is hittable and can lose to inferior competition but has also lost to some very good strikers.
She’s now 41 years old and despite squeaking a split against Godinez (thought she lost personally), Penne is the same girl standing she always has been and I haven’t seen any evolution in her stand up over the years.
Reed is an okay striker for the level – she’ll mix it up between kicks and punches and can work at a consistent rate although she’s been lower volume in certain fights.
She has a handful of KO/TKOs on her record but isn’t a “large” hitter – her finishes more so come from attritional damage but did drop Martinez early – she also got out landed at distance nearly 2-1 though and lost the 2nd round on the feet.
We saw her hands look solid in her outing over McKenna where she utilized a lot of effective movement and was just the much more effective striker over 15 minutes, similar to her performance against Frey.
Defensively, she’s pretty poor as when she throws strikes, she keeps her chin high up and on the center line and likewise when moving backwards but as noted, she’ll move a good amount on the outside – saying she’s poor defensively is more so in the tighter quarters in comparison to at range.
She’s historically been durable but got absolutely whomped by Godinez last time out.
Her debut against Eubanks wasn’t at space much so nothing to take away from that fight, and we saw little distance time against Hughes but she was winning the minimal exchanges there.
Overall, her work rate and cardio have been large factors in her success to date but she’s still nothing special. But she can definitely win fights standing at the lower tiers of the division though.
How it plays out: Assuming Reed stays mobile and keeps her work rate high, she should out strike Penne. I also think leg kicks could be big for Reed here given her taekwondo base and what we saw in Penne’s fight with Ducote where Penne’s legs got compromised early in the fight. Penne has been tough and Reed hasn’t been a massive hitter but Penne’s so hittable to where I wouldn’t be surprised if Reed could hurt her – especially if Penne’s got one foot out the door given her age and can’t get the fight to the ground. However, Penne did compete well with Godinez and Ducote in head strikes so if Reed is going to be low volume, Penne could tighten some of those margins. I would also favor Penne in the clinch. But Reed realistically should outstrike Penne here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Penne’s wrestling is generally poor, landing 1.1 TDs per 15 minutes at 15% so she is reliable to shoot but has very underwhelming metrics.
The wrestling was the difference though in her fight against Markos where she landed four TDs and got 6+ minutes of control time to edge a split decision – that’s the fight that’s also skewing her TD number higher though.
However, she mounted Markos twice and lost position on both occasions. That fight was also 11 years ago, and Markos was content to play on her back.
She was able to get Godinez’s back standing multiple times but that was also more of a product of Godinez putting herself in bad spots and showing poor fight IQ.
Penne is a BJJ black belt, and we saw her make Karolina pay in her last win as Karolina engaged in the grappling with Penne which was a gigantic mistake.
So, I would say her jiu-jitsu is her best attribute with eight of her 14 pro wins coming via submission, but she falls more into the “opportunistic” grappler category in comparison to her being anything special offensively from initiation.
She was most recently audited on the floor by fellow black belt Tabatha Ricci and gave up an armbar in the 2nd round.
At the end of the day, if you’re a grappler by nature with limited stand-up capabilities and can only land TDs at 15%, it’s fair to assume that fighter is going to struggle overall. But Penne is battle tested and can capitalize on mistakes from opponents if they give her the proper openings.
Reed is a BJJ white belt at least as of 2019 – she could have leveled up since then, but I can’t confirm.
She’s a girl who likes to keep her fights standing as that’s where her primary advantages come, so we haven’t seen her wrestle offensively much outside of her outing late against Martinez.
She was starting to get touched up on the feet and went to the wrestling in the 3rd round to secure her that W – I actually thought that displayed pretty good fight IQ to make that adjustment.
However, it’s been the wrestling and grappling that has given her significant issues in the majority of her fights.
Based on her 11 pro fights, I’d say her TDD/get ups have improved since the early portions of her career, but it still hasn’t been pretty in the UFC where she defends at only 42%.
I saw her get mounted on 3-4 occasions regionally but was able to get out of those positions – that’s also more of a product of the girl who’s on top not staying heavy and making elementary mistakes to get swept.
She’s also been caught in a handful of submission attempts but had been able to work her way out of those positions regionally.
But in her debut against Eubanks who’s a good wrestler and BJJ black belt, she didn’t have any answer, got mauled and pounded out in three minutes.
Against McKenna, it was the wrestling that forced a “closer fight” but her get ups generally looked better. She got wrestle fucked by Sam Hughes and eventually finished later in the fight.
She got taken down twice by Lookboonme and submitted in the 2nd round who’s a base thai girl – not the best of looks although Lookboonme’s ground game has improved.
She also dropped minutes via wrestling to Frey and more recently got dog walked by Godinez where she was eventually submitted.
Overall, Reed has been finished on the ground in all four of her pro losses either via strikes or submission, and has shown very little offensive upside.
How it plays out: This is where the fight becomes more interesting. As noted, Penne is a poor wrestler, but she’s got an evident advantage in the submission grappling department. By hook or by crook, if Penne’s able to find positions on Reed in this fight, Reed will be in some trouble. Despite referencing the poor wrestling of Penne, it’s not as if every girl that’s had ground success on Reed has been a proficient ground fighter. I give Reed a pass for Godinez and Eubanks, but Sam Hughes isn’t a great wrestler and middling purple belt – Loma Lookboonme is a 5’ tall base thai striker – Jinh Yu Frey has only landed TDs at 36% in the UFC and is also a middling purple belt. Point being, you don’t need to be Tatiana Suarez or Gillian Robertson to have ground success on Elise Reed. Penne’s very live if she gets to the back in this fight.
Shit show of a fight but one with a handful of interesting dynamics. Reed’s just not a very good fighter but she’s got a winnable matchup if she can stay upright and fight from the outside. Penne’s been washed for years and is old but as noted, Reed’s terrible on the ground and Penne’s probably the 2nd best pure jiu jitsu girl that Reed’s fought in her career. So, it’s a spot where I don’t really trust either girl to be honest. I think favoring Reed makes logical sense purely due to the age gap and general Penne downside, but I still consider Penne a live underdog here because Reed can’t really grapple.
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On DraftKings, this is definitely a low-priority matchup but one that has merit due to the slate dynamics.
Penne at 7.6k is the preferred target due to grappling upside, but she is old, and she is not great. Counting on her to win feels absolutely terrible and I’ll probably pick her to lose anyways.
It’s just that Reed has an obvious grappling flaw, and that’s where Penne excels and has fought with some of the best girls in the world for years. She still can’t wrestle much, but the odds suggest she’s live here.
So although I won’t go crazy on ownership, I don’t mind Penne at 7.6k because she at least has a ceiling. An early submission win is definitely viable, even if it’s an ugly one. She also has some merit as a direct pivot off Hadly who will be ultra-chalk.
Still only a secondary target at +350 ITD but worth mixing in based on fight dynamics.
Reed is more of the contrarian side at 8.6k and she’ll need a knockout.
This is not a matchup where she should have any grappling success, and I’m skeptical of her striking volume as well. You’re just hoping she can hurt Penne at some point and then have Penne give up for a TKO.
Reed is only +400 to win ITD though, so those chances aren’t great. I think she’ll be one of the lower owned favorites on the card though, and she’s in that tough 8.4k-8.6k range where it’s possible she could fit into the optimal by default.
Mixing in a bit of her for narrative based upside and to be unique is fine, but the primary expectation would be a low-scoring, striking based decision win.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reed by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Melissa Martinez vs. Alice Ardelean
Fight Odds: Martinez -125, Ardelean +109
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Martinez 8.4k, Ardelean 7.8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Alice Ardelean has an interesting background as she’s been fighting professionally since 2012, but is most well known for being a social media star as she has 600K followers on Instagram and 3 million followers on TikTok. This will be her sophomore UFC appearance after dropping her debut to Shauna Bannon back in July – she’s 9-6 as a pro. Melissa Martinez is also an interesting case study as she won the Combate 115 lb. title back in 2019 but has only fought once since, which was her UFC debut in 2022 where she lost to Elise Reed – she’s 7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Ardelean’s official background and our footage of her in recent years is somewhat limited, so there is some guess work here. I’ve seen a couple of different things from her in the fights we have available.
She’s not super technical but has shown semblance of footwork with complemented kicking and clinching, which has hurt a few opponents.
In certain matchups, she’s been really aggressive and willing to throw down in the pocket but in her fight against Pal, she more or less played a mid-tempo outside range game, which was mildly competitive, but she got the better of the exchanges.
We saw similar things within her last fight against Bannon where she had some issues with range attacks to where she was ultimately out landed 73 to 50 at distance – head strikes were essentially evens though, so it was really just the kicks and flurries of Bannon that pulled her ahead but Ardelean was landing in tight and at 54% overall – she just didn’t do enough.
Her defense isn’t very good but she’s a really tough girl at the same time. We saw her toughness on display in her fight against Weili Zhang (current UFC champion) back in 2016 where she ate some huge shots.
Overall, Ardelean’s striking performances have been variable, but I do think she has the skills to beat lower-level women on the feet in the UFC if she takes an aggressive approach.
Martinez has been a lifelong martial artist as her parents got her started at a very young age.
She comes from a kickboxing background where she’s achieved multiple accolades such as: 6-time National Mexican Kickboxing Champion, 2016 Pan Am American Kickboxing Champion, 2017 Silver Medalist at Worlds and more recently, 2021 WAKO K-1 World Champion.
So in spite of her prior layoff to the debut, she was competing.
In MMA, her kickboxing style shows through but she’s also a pretty mobile kickboxer. She likes to bounce on the outside and move in and out of the pocket. She’s pretty diverse in her kicking arsenal in targeting all three levels, and will throw consistently with both legs.
Hands wise, she’s more of a blitz striker. I would also say her work rate is above-average.
Despite being a smaller girl, she’s shown power components, scoring KOs in five of her seven pro Ws – even in her fight with Martinenghi that went a full 15, she dropped her with a straight early on and beat the girl up badly for the duration of the fight.
At range, her defense is pretty good, but she does leave her head on the center line when entering and throwing punches. She just hadn’t really fought anyone regionally to get her respect from a countering perspective.
However, in her debut, we saw Reed pick up on that early and drop Martinez with a right hand which won Reed the 1st round. But outside of that individual exchange, Martinez was winning the large bulk of exchanges for the rest of the fight and outlanded Reed 37-20 at distance.
Overall, she came from Combate which is a better promotion to fight in than most traditional regional scenes, but her strength of comp overall hasn’t been very good. I do largely like what I’ve seen from her in the stand-up though and feel she can beat girls at the UFC level despite a jittery debut performance.
How it plays out: Martinez profiles somewhat similarly to Ardelean’s last opponent in Bannon being a more mobile “punchy/kicky” type of fighter. To me, it’s pretty obvious who’s the more technically proficient striker and that’s Martinez. So, I think part of what it comes down to is how Ardelean is going to approach the striking. If she’s not going to be aggressive and/or just wade into shots without follow ups, she’s going to get picked apart. But if she can force more of a dog fight, the stand up becomes interesting.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Ardelean is only a BJJ blue belt, but the floor has played a factor in her last 3 wins.
She’s not the biggest 115er in terms of measurables but she’s a dense girl and physical as she’s kind of just tossed around her last three opponents.
She finished via RNC in her most recent win and landed some really heavy GNP on her prior two opponents. Because she’s been so aggressive on top, it has allowed girls to work up under her at points though.
But her wrestling isn’t really technical where she’s largely just bullying girls down or going for head and arm throws. I thought she won the 1st round last time out against Bannon though where she accrued 3.5 minutes of control time.
Defensively, Zhang bodied her on the ground but no shame really considering what we know of Zhang now – she also didn’t quit in the fight and it took Zhang nearly 10 minutes to get her out of there.
She got stuck in an armbar a few fights back but was able to power out it. However, she was subbed by current UFC fighter Diana Belbita back in 2014 which isn’t the greatest of looks – granted 10 years ago in her 3rd pro fight.
She did defend brief guard attacks from Bannon last time out though. But she’s generally looked poor when put on the bottom.
Overall, given our sample, it’s hard to benchmark Ardelean’s ground game but she’s handled the girls accordingly on the floor she should have.
Given Martinez’s striking background, we haven’t seen her pursue many TDs.
The main one I recall regionally was a failed head and arm throw which is something you don’t really want to see – a low level, low percentage TD. She took Reed down once in the 3rd round but let her back up.
Defensively, she’s been taken down a handful of times but overall has been difficult to control outside of her fight with Yanez.
Yanez stuck her against the fence for a decent chunk of minutes and was able to gain dominant position on her in the 2nd in which she wasn’t able to work out of, despite not getting finished.
In her defense, Yanez is now fighting in Bellator at flyweight (has fought some better girls very competitively since) and was just the bigger girl in their matchup – Martinez may have gotten a bit lucky winning that decision as well as you could have definitely given that fight to Yanez.
Reed took her down three times in the 3rd round last time out. She popped up quickly on all TDs but still ate some ground strikes and got stuck against the fence. So, in a round where not much happened on the feet, those exchanges ultimately cost her the fight.
Overall, our sample is small with some additional context but with what we have, you’d have to assume the floor will be where she’ll struggle the most going forward.
How it plays out: Both girls have had their documented bottom struggles and aren’t good wrestlers in totality. But I would give more upside to Ardelean here because she will be the physically stronger girl and I have seen her win fights/rounds from top positions before where that can’t be said for Martinez. Additionally, getting taken down three times by Elise Reed is a pretty bearish indicator regardless of her working up quickly. In theory though, Martinez could have some upside as well if she somehow finds her way into top position just because Ardelean’s a fish on the bottom.
This is a tricky matchup to call because not only is the style dynamic volatile but there’s other adjacent things that leave questions. Ardelean’s debut was on two weeks’ notice so I’m not sure how much we can hold her feet to the fire there and she fought Bannon close at the end of the day. Then on the Martinez side, the girl has only fought once in the last five years and is 27 years old now, so a lot of what I referenced in my breakdowns are from fights in her early 20s or teenage years. She’s now coming off another 2-year layoff so I’m not sure if we should be expecting improvements or another relatively flat performance that she had in her debut in 2022. Objectively though, Martinez is the younger girl who in theory, has more trajectory upside and I feel is the better fighter, so I’ll pick her to win.
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On DraftKings, this fight is probably best suited as a place to be unique.
Neither girl will project as a real talent moving forward, and in fact this is probably one of the more lower-level matchups I can remember on paper. The fight is also -350 to go the distance, so projections for both sides will be awful.
Martinez is priced at 8.4k and she’s just a contrarian option in my mind. Perhaps the only benefit to her is that Hiestand is now out of his fight, so there’s a gap between Martinez, and Reed and 8.6k Almabayev at 8.7k. I could see forcing Martinez into a lineup to physically make it work.
Otherwise, I don’t have a great argument. You’re hoping for a random KO, or some grappling upside. More likely, you’re just hoping Martinez wins and fits into the optimal construction by default.
She’s +410 to win ITD and just isn’t a priority in any sense. She should be one of the lower owned fighters on this slate though, so that’s the only real upside. Mix in her a bit if you want to be unique and hope that Ardelean is so low-level that Martinez can generate more points than expected.
Ardelean is probably the preferred target on paper at 7.8k due to salary relief.
She may also have more grappling upside, though it’s hard to be sure. But she landed a couple takedowns in her last fight, and Martinez doesn’t profile as a great defensive grappler.
In theory, Ardelean probably will need to grapple to win. There’s more merit to her ending up on the optimal lineup with a 80 point score if few or no other dogs on the slate win.
At the same time, her upside is highly questionable. She’s +550 to win ITD which is not good and I don’t even think she’s a full-time fighter.
It’s a very difficult spot to trust but there’s some secondary appeal as the line is competitive, Ardelean provides some salary relief and at least has mild grappling advantages on paper. She also works as a direct pivot off Hadley which is risky but mildly intriguing if you need one place to be unique.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Martinez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
Fight Odds: Despaigne -331, Lane +265
Odds to Finish: -1400
DraftKings Salaries: Despaigne 9.4k, Lane 6.8k
Weight Class: HW
It’s finally time to take my victory lap after the undefeated Olympian taekwondo fighter Robelis Despaigne was manhandled on the ground by boxer Waldo Cortes-Acosta in May, but he’ll be looking to rebound against former football player Austen Lane on Saturday.
My primary take on Despaigne was that he very likely had significant holes in his game, and despite his insane athletic base, his primary background was a poor one to transition to MMA and would likely leave him exposed against UFC level competition.
He still showed us his upside, knocking out Josh Parisian in just 18 seconds in his UFC debut. And that’s how the large majority of his regional career went too. Three of his four regional fights didn’t last longer than 12 seconds…
But he wants to stand at distance, with his hands down, and kick you in the head. He can fire off punches too, but they’re singular moments, and his style won’t look nearly as efficient as a classic boxer or kickboxer.
Let alone a wrestler, where as a 35-year-old ex-Olympian who had dedicated his life to striking, I was pretty suspect that he’d have a strong ground game as well.
That was finally exposed by Cortes-Acosta, who it should be noted, actually comes from a baseball background and had not landed one single takedown in the UFC/DWSC in six previous fights.
But in this fight, despite Despaigne being WAY bigger than him, Cortes-Acosta took him down once in each round, without too much difficulty, and controlled 10 of the 15 minutes on the mat in total.
It’s not just in the statistics, Despaigne just didn’t pass the eye test which is what I was afraid of. He doesn’t balance well. He allowed Cortes-Acosta directly into mount which is like week 1 of beginner jiu-jitsu. When you lack that level of knowledge, you just don’t have a chance on the ground, and Despaigne didn’t.
Now, if you told me Despaigne has spent the last five months dedicating his life to wrestling and BJJ, he could absolutely improve to a great degree. I highly doubt that’s what happened. And these are not issues that just fix themselves quickly. I am actually certain his issues haven’t been fixed, because the primary element to improving your wrestling/grappling is time spent training.
I would bet that he’s better on the ground now than he was in May though, based on the same argument. And it’s not even that he’s never trained before. He sprawled on one takedown attempt early in the fight, and more reps doing that will help as well.
It was primarily that he had zero idea what to do once he got taken down, and then he didn’t really have much energy to fire strikes back later in the fight. Just some sloppy kicks at distance and falling over on another takedown attempt.
Now he’s facing Austen Lane, who literally failed in this same exact scenario in his last fight.
Lane is an ex-football player and very mediocre MMA fighter, who holds a record of 1-3 in the UFC/DWCS, and he’s been knocked out early in all three losses.
He knows how to strike at a base level and this is HW, but he’s not really a knockout artist or volume threat. He also has basic levels of wrestling, and he took down kickboxer Jhonata Diniz in the first round last time out.
He then held him down for the whole round, and won the round. Same stuff as he’ll need to do here.
By round two he was tired. He failed on a couple of early takedown attempts and that was it. Diniz pressed a little bit, hurt him and knocked him out.
That is ultimately why Despaigne is a huge favorite again. Lane doesn’t seem to have a great chin. He’s very mediocre. Yeah he can wrestle a bit but can he do it for three rounds? It’s hard to be confident in that.
It feels pretty likely that Despaigne will either knock him out in the first minute, or try to do that and fail, giving up an early takedown and an early round. But round two and three start on the feet again and Despaigne can pull it together enough to knock him out in either round if Lane cannot bring him to the mat.
I think that’s the outcome I have to pick as well. It’s just a weird spot because as I mentioned, Despaigne’s issues won’t be fixed. So Lane has an extremely obvious path to victory that he’s tried to use in the past. He could definitely win.
I’ll bet he gets knocked out this time though, and maybe we’ll have a bit better spot against Despaigne again in the future.
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On DraftKings, Despaigne is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k, and he should be ultra chalk with the addition of the value in Hadley.
The primary reason he’s still viable and intriguing is because he has first-minute win equity. I never actually factor this into projections but Despaigne historically tries to finish his opponents immediately. In the HW division, that will lead to quick KOs.
Now against an opponent who has been KOd three times in losses, Despaigne could easily hurt him with some of the first strikes he throws, and that would lead to a 125+ score and likely an optimal result.
With that said, it’s not a result I would typically encourage betting on. And the risk here is that a late round 1 KO, or a round 2 KO could potentially bust Despaigne outright. I mean, if he wins in 1.5 minutes and throws 20 strikes, that’s still only 108. It’s a decent score but not a guarantee to be optimal.
If the fight hits round two and Despaigne comes back to win by KO after being outwrestled early, I highly doubt he’ll even reach 100.
So I don’t think Despaigne is a must-target or anything close to it in large-field tournaments. He will project incredibly well with a -400 ITD line and a -110 RD prop, but anything outside of the 60 second mark has some risk to it.
I do want to invest in his KO upside to a degree this week, given the matchup, and ultimately if you want to jam him in so be it. Just be careful with your constructions because pairing him with Hadley and the main event will be extremely popular combinations.
I always get nervous about top-end scores for strikers, at chalk, and at an expensive price tag, so I don’t mind this as an underweight spot all factors considered.
Lane at 6.8k is just a boom or bust target but one you should sprinkle in.
I don’t think he’ll be as popular as Sharaf last week, who had a similar but different hail mary shot. Lane has looked awful generally and he’s the biggest dog on the slate, so he’ll project poorly too.
Even if he goes out there and wins round one with wrestling, like last time, he could still end the fight with 25 points or less, like he did last time.
He does also have a win condition based on grappling, and extreme leverage against Despaigne. For those reasons, he makes sense to sprinkle in. I wouldn’t label him a pure secondary target but I would want to be near the field or even a touch overweight just given the obvious dynamics and known issues of Despaigne.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Despaigne by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)