Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen
Fight Odds: De Ridder -215, Allen +181
Odds to end ITD: -260
DraftKings Salaries: De Ridder 8.8k, Allen 7.4k
Weight Class: 185
I was really looking forward to Anthony Hernandez vs. Reinier de Ridder, but with Hernandez pulling out, we get a fun replacement in Brendan Allen.
De Ridder is coming off yet another victory, this time over former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker via split decision.
De Ridder looked far from spectacular, but he did enough, wearing into Whittaker with body shots throughout the fight, and earning moments of control on the mat and in clinch.
Whittaker had his moments too. He hurt de Ridder badly in the third round and nearly finished the fight with ground-and-pound, but de Ridder survived. Whittaker also had early success, but really wasn’t able sustain a striking pace, and he could not stop de Ridder from clinching with him.
Whittaker did a decent job defending takedowns though, only allowing two on 15 attempts by de Ridder. He gave up his back on one of those occasions and lost one clean round, but otherwise, gave up more control in the clinch than on the mat.
It’s a difficult fight to assess in hindsight because I have not been the highest on de Ridder, and I didn’t think he looked phenomenal in that matchup. Whittaker looked like he had very little left in the tank as well.
But de Ridder is still a solid competitor and will continue to get the division a good test, especially when he’s able to earn control.
I do quite like the grappling skills of de Ridder in general and I view them as his primary path to victory at the UFC level.
De Ridder has a background in Judo and is a capable wrestler as well, with a pretty strong top game. He is a solid submission grappler and has picked up 14 submissions in his pro career, including five (or more) by RNC.
He’s pretty skilled at taking the back and has a nice choke series in general that will continue to be a threat. He can also overcommit on submissions and lose positions at times, which I don’t love.
On the feet, I still consider de Ridder to be pretty mediocre. Most of his regional fights take place on the mat and on the few occasions where he’s been forced to stand, he’s been beaten up or knocked out.
He’s fought very little distance time in the UFC thus far and even his striking success against both Whittaker and Nickal was primarily from the clinch. I wouldn’t trust him at distance for an extended period and he may still be a defensive liability there, but he’s at least competent offensively in bursts and his striking can still be a factor as long as he’s in control of the grappling exchanges as well.
Against Whittaker, de Ridder got the nod in distance strikes at 54 to 51, but he was also badly hurt and dropped again, and nearly finished.
Clearly, de Ridder has enough tools to succeed, and he’s only gaining in experience now. I still only feel confident in him when he is on top or controlling clinch exchanges.
Next up will be Brendan Allen who should honestly provide de Ridder one of his best tests thus far.
I’ve been up and down with Allen over the years, because coming into the UFC, he was a legit submission grappler who primarily excelled on the mat. Instead of forcing that path, he chose to develop a striking game that’s been hit and miss.
At times, he’s looked excellent on the feet and that’s undoubtedly a credit to the work he’s put in. He’s also looked defensively shaky at times, and he’s been knocked out on more than one occasion.
Allen still thrives on the mat as an adequate wrestling and BJJ black belt. He averages 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 56 percent. He can easily beat the mediocre grapplers of this division but he’ll struggle against better wrestlers.
On the feet, Allen is landing 3.85 sig. strikes per minute and absorbing 3.96 per minute with a 47 percent defensive rate. He’s coming off a solid performance against Marvin Vettori where he landed 100 distance strikes in three rounds.
As far as this matchup goes, I think it’s one that both fighters can win.
It’s difficult to look past the 56 percent takedown defense of Allen, who recently got taken down a bunch by Anthony Hernandez, and think de Ridder can’t have success.
In fact, I’d be surprised if de Ridder didn’t get Allen down. I would project de Ridder to have early wrestling success here, and landing 3-4 takedowns over five rounds wouldn’t be a surprise.
With that top time, de Ridder is likely to win rounds. He’s likely to threaten Allen. I would bet that he takes Allen’s back on one occasion, and potentially, he will submit Allen.
However, Allen will not just roll over and die on the mat. He will fight through grappling exchanges, and probably survive them as he’s always done. His only pro submission loss came in 2016. He’s fought some really good opponents, including a five-rounder and three-rounder against Anthony Hernandez and survived.
And even in that most recent Hernandez fight, as an example, Allen was winning at times. He gave up four takedowns but he reversed position three times and had Hernandez in some dangerous spots.
While I can see de Ridder simply winning with top time, I think it’s more likely that Allen gives de Ridder a test like what we saw from Meerschaert in de Ridder’s UFC debut. Meerschaert was able to get on top of him and earn some control, despite giving up takedowns.
I view Allen as an equal or more dangerous grappler than Meerscheart as well, and a better wrestler. I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen also landed a couple of takedowns, or scrambled to top position where he too could win rounds or threaten a sub.
And on the feet, this is close. I honestly favor Allen at this point who I think is better from distance, where de Ridder is still probably better from the clinch.
Allen is just a more experienced and higher volume distance striker. His defense is mediocre and he’s absorbing a lot of strikes, but at distance, he’s landing 6.3 per minute while de Ridder is landing 4.1. So purely at distance, I think Allen would land a bit more strikes and he’d have a better chance to hurt de Ridder, though he can be hurt too.
De Ridder isn’t a cardio menace either and we’ve seen him slow down in fights. Yes he just beat Whittaker over five rounds but Whittaker did nothing in the championship rounds and just allowed him to clinch against the cage. Against an opponent who is fighting back hard, I’m not sure de Ridder cleanly wins those rounds.
Ultimately, this is a good fight and a good test for both men. I think it’s fair to favor de Ridder as the more likely fighter to earn top control, and I do expect him to have some early success.
I really also think Allen will fight back, scramble free, potentially get on top, and strike with de Ridder too. If we get that kind of a battle, this will be close, and I think both men can win rounds.
I kind of view Allen as the value side given he has multiple paths to win, is very capable on the mat and on the feet. De Ridder does too, and perhaps has the better chance to dominate, but I’m not so sure it comes easily.
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On DraftKings, this fight will be a priority this week as the main event with a lot of expected grappling exchanges.
De Ridder is priced at 8.8k, and could be viewed as an outright priority. He had very little success in his last matchup and still scored 108 points over five rounds, and his other UFC wins have scored 106, 114, and 110.
De Ridder is only +105 to win ITD here but I’m not sure it matters much. A win for him will come with takedowns, control, clinching, strikes, and possibly a finish. If he’s winning three rounds or more, he’s very likely to accrue enough points to reach that 100 point mark once again.
Given that he’s -200 or better in this matchup, De Ridder is going to rate out among the top overall targets on this slate at 8.8k, and I expect him to be the most popular fighter on the slate outright.
While I do like Allen and think Allen can win, that doesn’t mean I am avoiding de Ridder. I would still aim for moderate exposure to de Ridder and if you want to make him your No. 1 priority, that’s acceptable as well.
Allen is priced at 7.4k and is one of my favorite underdogs on the slate.
He simply might not win, but as explained above, I definitely think there are versions of this fight which are highly competitive. And if Allen is winning, he’s going to have to produce offense, likely some of it on the mat. He may also have some finishing equity both on the feet and on the mat, though he’s only +230 to win ITD.
You’re getting a cheap price tag here, and likely leverage against de Ridder whom the public will be extra high on as he has yet to lose. While Allen doesn’t have to be prioritized, I think he’s a strong secondary target at least, and I wouldn’t mind being near the field or a bit overweight here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Allen by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott
Fight Odds: Malott -117, Holland +101
Odds to end ITD: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Malott 8.2k, Holland 8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really interesting and competitive fight here between Mike Malott and Kevin Holland.
Malott is 12-2-1 professionally. He is a coach at team Alpha male and has had a weird professional career. He is 34 years old and has won most of his fights in the first round.
Malott quickly finished his opponent on the Contender Series and then knocked Mickey Gall out in round one in his UFC debut. Mallott then faced Yohan Lainesse and was able to quickly take him down and submit him. He then faced Adam Fugitt and was able to take him down a few times and then eventually hurt him and guillotine him.
Malott then faced Neil Magny. Malott was actually dominating Magny in the first couple of rounds by outstriking and outgrappling Magny. Malott then eventually gassed out, got taken down, and got finished on the mat. It was one of the only times he had been in an extended fight so it was a bad look.
Malott then fought Giles and won a tepid striking decision where he outlanded Giles 59-34 in significant strikes. I liked that Malott showed he could win an extended fight. However, the pace was low and he didn’t really have to go through adversity. I do question Malott when he is in an extended high paced matchup. He clearly gassed himself out over wrestling against Magny. It looked like against Giles, he was afraid to tire out. So pacing is clearly something he is trying to figure out.
Malott’s last matchup was against Charles Radtke and he actually fought pretty well and won by a knockout in early round two.
I do think Malott is dangerous in general. He is a decently skilled striker and has a fine kicking game. He can land some hard combinations as well. He also is a fine grappler and has a decent shot and back taking game where he is capable of body triangles and submissions. He is a pretty technically skilled fighter in general.
However, Malott still looks shaky in extended fights and there is clearly a pacing issue that he is figuring out. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to that.
Malott will be taking on Kevin Holland. Holland thrives as a striker. He lands 4.30 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. Those are solid metrics. In pure striking fights, Holland is quite good.
Holland is very skilled and dangerous as a striker. He has crisp kicks and straight punches, and is very relaxed and always seems to find his target. He also stands at 6’3” with an 81” reach which was a big frame for welterweight. So he is huge at Welterweight.
Holland’s issue has always been his defensive grappling, and more specifically, his wrestling. He defends takedowns at 55 percent and can be held on his back. Holland is actually a decent submission grappler. Once he is taken down, he can retain guard and isn’t in a ton of danger. His issue is simply being controlled.
One thing I do hate about Holland is how complicit he is losing fights. In his losses to Dolidze and De Ridder, he was laughing and hugging his opponents after and cracking jokes. I am not saying go be a sore loser and throw a fit after a loss. It is fine to congratulate your opponent with a handshake or whatever. I am all about losing with class. However, I just think Holland’s laughing and being so cool with losing shows the mentality of a loser. It is a terrible mindset to have in any area of life and especially in fighting.
I also thought Holland’s performance against Daniel Rodriguez was concerning in his last matchup. Holland got hurt a couple of times which was a bad look as durability was always a strength of Holland’s. He also just got put in awful spots on the mat against Rodriguez who isn’t even a grappler. I just thought Holland looked worse than usual in that matchup.
As far as this matchup goes, I am pretty torn. I do think in an extended striking fight, Holland is better in a high paced matchup. Malott just seems to be super anxious when he is in chaotic striking exchanges and seems like a control freak in the cage. Malott likes to always be winning while Holland can be calm and strike in competitive matchups and take over. I definitely could see Holland just outstriking Malott over the stretch and maybe even finishing him at some point. I don’t fully trust Malott’s cardio.
I still think Malott can win and compete in striking exchanges here though. Malott is still technical on the feet and does have some danger in his striking game. Holland has been getting hurt lately and I could see Malott having some level of success on the feet or landing a knockdown shot or something.
I do think the reason I am going to pick Malott is because Holland has just looked a little off and I hated his grappling exchanges against Rodriguez. Malott is actually a decent grappler who is averaging 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes. I also consider Malott’s top game pretty solid and he is somewhat physical. I think Malott can land takedowns here and consolidate some top position. I sneakily think Malott could submit Holland too. Malott has some submission grappling in his game and I think Holland’s defensive grappling and guard retention has looked bad lately. Holland has just been giving up a ton of advances of position.
I also just don’t trust Holland anymore. He is so frustrating because he is talented but somehow just always manages to lose fights. This is a tricky one though and I don’t fully trust either guy.
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On DraftKings, this is a tough one but probably a matchup with fantasy upside.
Simply put, I could see both fighters winning and I can make cases for both.
Malott is priced at 8.2k, and the vast majority of his success has come early in fights. He has finishing equity by default, and he’s also a quality grappler.
Kevin Holland isn’t easy to finish though, so I’m pretty hesitant to commit to Malott in any fashion. Plus, Holland is a huge step up in competition for him and Holland will be so much longer than Malott, where I don’t really think Malott is getting a comfortable fight here.
My hope is that it just leads to more exchanges and ultimately makes the fight fun, but I’m not sure it’s the kind of fight Malott will thrive in if he doesn’t get to Holland early.
Holland is priced at 8k and should want to make this a dog fight. He’ll be eight inches longer than Malott and can potentially make him super uncomfortable at distance. We’ve also seen Malott gas out and get finished late in the fight, which is a path to victory for Holland as well.
The fight as a whole is -210 to end inside the distance, and I don’t mind betting on it to be a hectic one where the winner outproduces their DK price tag.
I’m honestly just not sure who to pick to win.
My gut says Holland because of his length and pacing, and general experience compared to Malott. But Malott has more wrestling upside and Holland is pretty inconsistent.
Malott has a slightly better ITD line here at +160 vs. the +170 of Holland, and honestly you can lean in whichever way you like. I would want exposure to this fight though. Both sides rate out as quality secondary targets, though Malott may have more outs to score.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Malott by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Marlon Vera vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Fight Odds: Zahabi -130, Vera +111
Odds to end ITD: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Zahabi 8.5k, Vera 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fight between two guys who I have generally historically been skeptical of between Aiemann Zahabi and Marlon Vera.
Aiemann Zahabi has had a super random six fight winning streak that I don’t think anyone saw coming.
Zahabi is coming off the biggest win of his career against Jose Aldo where I actually thought he lost the first two rounds. However, Zahabi gassed Aldo out and beat the crap out of him in round three. Zahabi also defeated Pedro Munhoz where he outlanded Munhoz 109-95 in significant strikes.
Zahabi also had a huge upset decision win over Javid Basharat. He outstruck Basharat and outlanded him 75-67 in significant strikes and outlanded Basharat 51-33 in head strikes.
Zahabi is very much a neutralizing striker. Zahabi lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.13 in return. Those aren’t great metrics but Zahabi does have some defensive skills and defends strikes at a solid 69 percent. He is capable of just competing with his opponents by minimizing their offense. He is decently technical and has shown some occasional power and has a couple of knockout wins in the UFC. I do like that he showed more offense against Munhoz. Zahabi very much likes to counter with his boxing.
I still just personally dislike the style of Zahabi. Yes, he is technical and yes, he is fine defensively. However, he just doesn’t always throw a ton of output which makes it difficult to cleanly win decisions. I just wish he would pick up the offense a little more. He did in his last few fights though. I also think the Aldo win was not as impressive on paper. Aldo kind of owned Zahabi until Aldo was gassed and defenseless. Zahabi basically just beat a very gassed fighter.
Zahabi is also not an effective offensive wrestler and only lands 0.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. So he is basically limited to winning fights by a decision where he likely doesn’t land a ton of strikes or by knockout where he really isn’t extremely powerful either. Zahabi has shown good defensive wrestling though and defends takedowns at 83 percent.
Zahabi is just who he is. He is rarely going to run away with fights because his offense is simply not there. However, he is very much UFC level and capable of winning fights because he is a technically skilled fighter and is sound defensively. I feel like he can fight a ton of fighters close because he is skilled defensively so he has a high floor. However, his limited offense caps his ceiling too.
Zahabi will be taking on Marlon Vera. Vera is a fighter that I was always a bit skeptical of. His metrics aren’t great and are even worse now after being on the wrong end of an absolute beating against Sean O’Malley. He lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.37 in return. So he is getting hit more than he lands and he also doesn’t have the best striking defense as he only defends strikes at 57 percent. He is also not a guy who will land a lot of takedowns as he only lands 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes.
However, Vera generally outperforms his metrics for a few reasons. First, he has elite durability. He has 34 professional fights, has fought some good fighters, and he has never been finished in his career. So he basically only loses by decision which gives him 15 minutes to make something happen.
Second, Vera is dangerous. So when you couple his danger with his durability, he generally has 15 minutes to find a finish. He does have TKO and submission finishing upside as well, so he can sometimes finish fights even when he is losing.
Third, Vera has great cardio, pressure, and pace… and he knows it. He uses his cardio as a weapon and when you combine it with his danger, he can really hurt opponents and change the tide later in fights.
I still don’t totally trust Vera against guys with good cardio, skills, and durability. I just feel like he will kind of get out skilled and lose those types of fights which happened vs Cory Sandhagen and Sean O’Malley recently. However, if fighters have durability or cardio issues, they are definitely at risk to lose against Vera.
As far as this matchup goes, I am super torn here too. Both guys have some advantages.
I think Zahabi is clearly better defensively and I think everyone knows that. I could easily see Zahabi just out slicking Vera for a round or two and winning a competitive decision because of it. I also just think Vera is a slow starter and Zahabi could get off to an early lead here.
Vera will not gas out like Aldo though. Vera will go after Zahabi. This fight just seems like it is going to be super tight with Zahabi being more defensive and slick while Vera will be more aggressive. I just think this is going to be close man.
I do think Vera has more finishing upside though. Vera was hurt by Figgy in his last matchup but Vera is extremely durable and dangerous. Zahabi has been finished before and was badly hurt against Jose Aldo. I do think Vera having more finishing upside gives him a mild advantage here.
This seems tight and I have gone back and forth. I do like the danger Vera brings more though so I am going to pick him to win. I think he is more likely to have a knockdown or a big moment than vice versa.
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On DraftKings, the issue here is that Vera is one of the more durable fighters in the sport, while Zahabi has some of the better defensive striking metrics in the division.
So the fight itself is -300 to go the distance, in which case, I’m not sure either fighter will be a smash.
Zahabi is priced at 8.5k and has failed to reach 80 points in any of his five decision wins. Let me say that again. Zahabi has won by decision five times and scored 76, 74, 61, 58 and 52, which is awful.
Vera can yield a ton of strikes but I’m not sure it matters. Zahabi has shown no real willingness to wrestle. He’s +600 to win ITD. You probably want a KO for him to stand out at this price tag and that doesn’t seem like a predictable outcome.
I’m guessing Zahabi won’t be very popular due to his lack of upside and he’ll only rate out as a contrarian target, of which I am not a huge fan.
Vera is priced at 7.7k and is arguably the better fantasy target.
He’s actually +325 to win ITD which is much better than Zahabi’s finishing prop, though I wouldn’t label it strong.
We’ve been down this path with Vera for years and years. He’s not a very good fighter but his ultra-durability, combined with his pressure building style can make him dangerous to deal with, especially in the latter rounds.
We’ve seen Zahabi get knocked out before, and fight competitively on the numbers with some, but ultimately he’s defending strikes at 69 percent so it’s tough for me to be excited by Vera’s chances.
There’s mild decision equity with Vera, and some finishing equity on paper, but his floor is low and he’s not particularly cheap. I’d lean against targeting him much personally and would label him a low-end secondary type target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zahabi by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Manon Fiorot vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Fight Odds: Fiorot -233, Jasudavicius +195
Odds to end ITD: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Fiorot 8.9k, Jasudavicius 7.3k
Weight Class: 125
The pride of Canada, Jasmine Jasudavicius will take on her toughest test to date against the former title challenger Manon Fiorot.
Jasudavicius has rattled off five wins in a row, and seven of her last eight, and a victory over Fiorot this weekend would absolutely put her into title contention.
She’s largely dominated with her bully grappling style. She’s a big girl, and aggressive, and has found a way to consistently land takedowns where she is a menace from top position.
Jasudavicius currently lands 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and she’s 10 of her 11 tracked opponents, with the lone exception of Natalia Silva in 2022, who is another prospect in title contention.
To be fair, some of her competition has been weak on the mat, including Priscila Cachoeira and Ariane da Silva. Fatima Kline was undersized and on short notice, and most recently, Jasudavicius smashed Jessica Andrade on the mat who’s also way undersized.
But that’s not to take away from her skill set. Jasmine lands a ton of strikes on the mat and she is submission capable. She’s big and physical. She is not the most technical fighter in the world and not an elite wrestling technician, but her style works and she’s clearly capable of beating up the mid-levels of the division.
The problem is at distance, where Jasmine is much less dominant. She’s actually not terrible, and she can land some volume with her long frame and aggressive nature. She can also bully her way into the clinch where she’s decent as well.
But purely at distance, Jasudavicius is only land 4.8 strikes per minute while absorbing 6.5, which is not great. Only 49 percent of her fight time takes place at distance, but in theory, when she gets pure striking fights, she is much less likely to excel.
Fiorot suffered her first UFC defeat at the hands of Valentina Shevchenko in May, and although she got off to a rocky start, the fight was super competitive.
Shevchenko won a couple of clear rounds including the first, where she landed a takedown after busting up Fiorot’s nose, and then in the fourth where she landed a knockdown. Otherwise, Fiorot was ultra competitive and actually kind of bullied Shevchenko in the clinch.
Fiorot is generally considered to be one of the best distance strikers in the division, and she’s been highly effective throughout her short career. She’s currently landing 5.58 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.59 per minute, with a 66 percent defensive rate which is pretty phenomenal.
Her opponents have trouble closing the distance because Fiorot has a lot of range-finding strikes and good footwork, and she will evade if necessary, rather than engage in a brawl where she could be vulnerable.
I don’t think Fiorot is the most dangerous knockout artist in the division but she’s effective, and fights at a pretty high pace, so if opponents cannot defend, they’ll consistently eat shots until they eventually get hurt. Fiorot won by TKO (officially) in both of her first two UFC bouts.
We’ve also seen Fiorot have some success on the canvas, landing 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes. She’s not a great wrestler in total but she’s physical enough to get on top of some of the weaker grapplers in the division. She’s also defended takedowns well at 87 percent, and we’ve seen almost no time from her on her back.
We only have two samples from the UFC of Fiorot getting taken down, which came against Jennifer Maia, who very briefly tripped her against the cage, but Fiorot reversed position immediately.
And most recently, against Shevchenko. In the first round Shevchenko caught a kick and ended up on top, and held Fiorot down for the final 1:34 of the round. Shevchenko also briefly took her down in round four but Fiorot got up immediately.
Based on this, it’s really difficult to think Jasudavicius will have an easy time wrestling Fiorot down. It’s possible she gets shut out completely.
In that case, Fiorot is simply a better distance striker, particularly on the technical and defensive side. She has a +1.9 distance rate versus the -1.8 of Jasmine, so Fiorot really has to be the pick.
With that said, one takedown from Jasudavicus could win her the round. We now have seen Fiorot held down for a little bit, and on top Jasmine will throw strikes. She may simply need two takedowns to win two rounds here.
Additionally, while she’s outmatched at distance, Jasmine is big and solid in the clinch. She won’t be outsized by Fiorot like most of her opponents and actually has a 3-inch longer reach.
I could see Jasudavicius surprising people by forcing more clinch exchanges, being more aggressive and closing distance, and getting 1-2 takedowns that make this fight super close. I don’t count Jasmine out of this fight.
I do think the pick needs to be Fiorot just given her elite takedown defense on paper, and her superior distance metrics. But Jasmine is a dog and has enough tools to at least give Fiorot a fair test.
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On DraftKings, Fiorot is priced up to 8.9k and I don’t think she’s that strong of a target.
This fight is -350 to go the distance, in which case, Fiorot will be limited to landing a ton of significant strikes.
I do actually think Fiorot could take Jasmine down as well, and I wouldn’t be shocked with 1-2 takedowns landed, though that may not be a part of her game plan at all. Fiorot did take Shevchenko down once. Jasmine has been taken down on occasion but has limited control pretty well.
It’s not enough of a dominating path to victory in my mind to change my opinion, and the most likely outcome here is still a Fiorot decision.
In her UFC decisions, Fiorot has scored 107 (5 rounds), 55, 75, 82, and 88, which is simply not enough for 8.9k.
Given her lack of finishing equity on paper with a +400 ITD line, I don’t really plan on investing in Fiorot this weekend and consider her more of a contrarian target, without a clear path to a ceiling other than a random knockout. Perhaps if she can shut out Jasmine from takedowns, she can beat her up on the feet and do some damage, but it’s hard to justify much exposure.
Jasudavicius at 7.3k is the more difficult fighter to analyze because she has smashed in wins with her style.
She’s scored 105, 102, 104, 91, 169, 85, 105 and 86. We’ve seen her top 100 multiple times in a decision.
The issue here really is that Jasmine is not likely to dominate this time, and therefore, she’s not a great play. Based on her odds to win, I don’t think it’s crazy to fade her and take a stance against her, hoping the field is still on her.
On the other hand, we know how it will look if she wins. She’ll land multiple takedowns most likely, earn multiple minutes of top control, and probably surpass 80 points with upside for more.
She’s +600 to win ITD though which is an indication of her lack of finishing equity in this matchup.
I’m a bit torn because I really like Jas and we’ve hit on her several times. She’s an elite fantasy target. I can definitely understand using her as a secondary option due to the price tag, and I do think she’s live to surprise people and have mild grappling success. With a larger portfolio I would not want to be completely out here.
Again, it’s a very tough matchup on paper and she’s a sizable dog. If the public likes her a lot based on box scores, I don’t mind being underweight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fiorot by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Cody Gibson vs. Aoriqileng
Fight Odds: Gibson -174, Aoriqileng +148
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Gibson 8.6k, Aoriqileng 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Cody Gibson will look to bounce back against Aoriqileng after dropping a tough loss to Da’Mon Blackshear earlier this year.
Gibson isn’t bad. He is very experienced and is 21-11 professionally. He is 38 years old now but he seems to be in fine form and hasn’t taken a ton of beatings in his career or anything.
Gibson had an original stint in the UFC back in the 2014 range, and was cut after losing some tough matchups to guys like Aljamain Sterling. Gibson then did pretty well on the regional scene and picked wins up against good fighters like John Dodson.
Gibson then competed on TUF and made his way to the finals, and lost a back and forth war to Brad Katona back in 2023. Since then, Gibson racked up dominant grappling based wins against Brian Kelleher and Chad Anheliger. He then obviously lost to Blackshear. Gibson still had a ton of success against Blackshear though and I didn’t think it was a bad performance.
I mostly consider Gibson a tough, experienced freestyle fighter who is most reliable when he has a grappling path to victory and advantage.
Gibson honestly has decent wrestling and comes from a wrestling background. He was even beating Blackshear in the grappling early. He lands 2.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a solid back taking body triangling game, and is submission capable as well. I think he has decent takedowns and he is fairly physical and tenacious.
Gibson can also strike competently. He lands 3.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.18 in return. He isn’t a good striker but he isn’t bad, and can be aggressive and swing hard at times. He had that war with Katona where he landed 164 significant strikes and absorbed 160.
I still don’t love Gibson’s striking though and he is a bit hittable. He just is a little too brawl oriented. He is tough though and has never lost by knockout.
Gibson will be taking on Aoriqileng. I still hate this guy ever since he pathetically gave up against Daniel Marcos. I had bet Marcos in that fight and Marcos was absolutely dominating the matchup. Marcos then committed an unintentional foul, Qileng put on a bad acting job, quit, and took a No Contest. Qileng is always on my shit list for that one. He then followed up that performance by losing a grappling based decision to Raul Rosas Jr.
Qileng has had some fun fights and is 3-4 in the UFC. Qileng is basically an action fighter who relies on striking pace. He lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.46 in return. He has good cardio and occasional power, and can fight aggressively at times. However, he just has no defense, can be hurt a lot and gets hit way too often for my liking. He is basically going to have to win fights at this level against low competition.
I don’t consider Qileng a very good grappler either. He lands 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes but it has come vs poor competition. He also defends takedowns at a poor 58 percent. He can scramble up decently at times. However, he was taken down 5 times by Durden, 3 times by Perrin, 4 times by Munoz, and 3 times by Rosas. I just don’t like that he has surrendered that many takedowns.
Qileng has never been submitted in the UFC. However, he has been submitted on the regionals three times and he only has one submission win himself in 36 professional fights. He can also be controlled on his back a bit.
As far as this matchup goes, I just think Gibson has the grappling upside and is the rightful favorite for that reason. I think Gibson can take Qileng down and may even dominate him and submit him. I do think Gibson is a solid advancer of position and he has some decent RNCs and arm triangles. I am actually going to pick a submission to happen.
Even if Gibson doesn’t easily submit Qileng, he should be able to consolidate at least some top position as I don’t consider Qileng’s get ups all that strong. I do think Qileng has okay first layer takedown defense and he can scramble at times. So I could see Qileng having some stretches of success defending the occasional takedown and mildly winning striking exchanges. However, I just don’t trust Qileng to not get taken down at all. I think at least a couple of takedowns land for Gibson which is enough to pick Gibson to win.
If for whatever reason this stays standing, I do think Qileng could win. I may even mildly favor him on the feet. Still though, Qileng is a bit chinny and Gibson arguably has a durability advantage. Gibson could just strike competitively as well. Overall though, I agree with Gibson being favored and I could see this line being short because of the grappling upside alone.
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On DraftKings, Gibson seems like a decent target though it’s hard to feel safe with him.
Gibson is priced at 8.6k, and should be able to produce offense here. We’ve seen Aoriqileng give up 189 strikes and two knockdowns in a fight before. We’ve seen him KOd. We’ve seen him give up 3+ takedowns to four different opponents.
Essentially, Gibson has options. I can’t say for sure that he easily wins this fight, but I think just given Aoriqileng’s defensive issues, Gibson has the opportunity to produce some offense and score well.
Ideally, he’d probably wrestle for fantasy purposes, land 3+ takedowns and control Aoriqileng for a while. Rosas just did that and scored in the mid-80s. There’s not a guaranteed ceiling here but Gibson is also +265 to win ITD which shows mild finishing equity.
I feel a little nervous to hammer this one, but I really don’t respect the game of Aoriqileng, and Gibson should win it if he has anything left in the tank. I think he’s a solid secondary target with upside based on matchup pacing and additional wrestling/finishing equity.
Aoriqileng is priced down to 7.6k and has some upside if he can keep the fight standing.
He is willing to brawl, that’s for sure, and he can be damaging at times. He hasn’t had the most success finishing opponents though, which he’ll probably need to do to crush at this price tag.
Even in his decision wins, Aoriqileng has scored 93 and 65 DK points, and the former came with a knockdown and two takedowns. So he needs a knockdown.
He’s actually +300 to win ITD which is actually OK finishing equity on paper. I’m not particularly high on him but if he gets to strike here, these two could trade at a high rate and there’d be variance involved where he could land some damage.
I only consider Aoriqileng a low-end target but for 7.6k, he’s viable in a matchup that I’m not completely sure Gibson dominates from start to finish.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gibson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Frevola
Fight Odds: Frevola -122, Nelson +105
Odds to end ITD: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Frevola 8.3k, Nelson 7.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Kyle Nelson’s one of the more interesting case studies on the roster as he had a rocky start to his UFC run where he was on the verge of getting cut. He is coming off a loss but rattled off three straight wins prior, which has kept his spot with the promotion. Side note, Nelson will be going back up to 155 lbs. for the first time since his UFC debut back in 2018 – he’s 4-5-1 in the UFC and 16-6-1 as a pro. Matt Frevola was a part of the inaugural season of Contender Series back in 2017 where he’s since had a mixed bag of results, similar to his matchup counterpart – he’s 5-5-1 in the UFC and 11-5-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Nelson’s official striking background but we’ve seen a bit all over the board from him over the years.
In the past, he’s been more known as a power-based guy that throws bombs but in the last 3-4 or so years, he’s changed his style to be more outside/technical based.
Despite acknowledging Nelson’s improvements, his overall defense metrics still aren’t good, as he eats 4.7 SApM at 52% and 6.2 DApM at 56%.
I still feel like if opponents are going to pump volume on him and get inside, he’s going to struggle but he’s shown a lot more composure in recent years which can be attributed to his recent successes.
Frevola hasn’t been the most technical guy throughout the course of his career, but he has shown spurts of some amount of outside discipline. He’s also shown power components in recent years, scoring KOs in his last three wins.
His offensive distance striking hadn’t brought him the most amount of success early on, but he had points against Pena, whooped the shit out of Valdez, clipped Azaitar but looked good against Dober at the same time.
But he’s largely overaggressive in his striking and will engage in these big exchanges which has also been his downfall, and he’s been getting hurt on multiple occasions.
He was dropped twice by Polo Reyes, twice by Vannata, killed in 7 seconds by McKinney, head kicked by Saint-Denis and recently put down with a clinch knee by Ziam who had no UFC KOs prior.
But he also took a lot more composure against Dober and really picked his shots well which I think are a testament to Frevola’s striking improvements – also KOing Dober handing him his 1st KO loss is pretty impressive against a historic durability machine and base thai striker (it appears Dober’s durability may be going now though).
Overall, I still don’t fully know what to make of Frevola standing in the sense of how much he’s improved. We know he has power of course at this point but he’s still been reckless more often than not and doesn’t have a great chin.
How it plays out: Off the top, despite Nelson moving up in weight, he will have a 2” height advantage but the reach is the same at 71”. The striking aspect is a mess here as both guys are poor defensive strikers with durability issues, but both also have knockout power and are fine to bite the mouthpiece. As noted, I think both guys have shown some more discipline in terms of their approaches in recent fights which also makes things a bit interesting. But it’s also a situation where I don’t trust the “composure” of either guy. Both also tend to load hooks as their primary line of striking. Frevola “may” have a bit more power but I also think he’s the more fragile guy to be honest. Lot’s of variance here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Nelson is a BJJ brown belt but not a great wrestler historically, landing 1.1 TDs per 15 minutes at just 20% – so he is consistent to shoot on average but just not very efficient.
However, when Nelson has been able to secure top positions in the past and even regionally, he’s traditionally been stronger there.
He actually got a decent amount of top time against Choi but also got swept there. He also caught a kick last time out, taking Garcia down but also lost the position. We’ve seen a good bit of cage grinding from Nelson in recent years as well despite not doing much from those positions – it has slowed some of his fights down.
The bigger concern with Nelson is on his back as he looked horrible in both the CDF, Sayles and Garcia fights where he was finished on the mat by all three.
The first two are black belts and I’ll give him a pass with CDF, but Sayles really isn’t anything special as a wrestler/grappler — Sayles got submitted with an inverted triangle by Leavitt for context. Garcia’s also an animal in fairness.
He did hold up a bit better against Billy Q than anticipated. But he was also dead weight on bottom to Herbert in the 3rd who’s not a wrestler and did drop minutes on bottom to Choi.
Overall, the ground’s been pretty Jekyll and Hyde with Nelson.
Frevola started wrestling/BJJ in high school and currently holds brown belt status.
He has decent wrestling metrics landing 2.3 TDs per 15 minutes at a 38% clip.
The floor has given Frevola success in his earlier UFC Ws but ironically despite his stats, I feel he’s really only gone to it when he’s been at a length disadvantage on the feet. Outside of those situations, he’s been content to stand and strike for extended periods of time. I.e. Pena, Turner and Ziam fights (early on the last one).
Despite his good TD numbers, his control components aren’t very good but does have a decent back take.
Defensively, he only stuffs at 33% but that number is heavily skewed from when he fought Tsarukyan who went 10 for 12 on TDs and grinded Frevola out. But Ziam also had some success on him in the back half of the most recent fight.
Generally though, guys haven’t shot on him much and he’s been difficult to control.
Overall, Frevola’s a respectable wrestler/grappler but you can’t always bank on him to use it and he’s not immune to being taken down.
How it plays out: There’s also some variance here as both have had some defensive struggles but will also shoot. That said, I do feel Frevola is the better wrestler of the two who’s also been “less” susceptible on the bottom – Tsarukyan would destroy Kyle Nelson as well and would probably finish whereas Frevola didn’t get finished in his defense, despite being taken down 10 times. That said, it’s still not a passionate opinion after seeing Frevola get taken down four times by Ziam who’s a base kickboxer (Ziam’s grappling has improved a lot in fairness and Frevola had early success but still concerning).
Add this one to the list of many messy fights on this card. I honestly don’t know who’s going to win. Both of these guys are so inconsistent and have not only had inconsistent macro results, they’ve also just generally fought in inconsistent ways. So I don’t trust the game-planning, fight IQ or durability of either fighter. Of the two, Nelson probably has a bit better IQ but Frevola probably has better cardio and I’m going to lean him ever so slightly for the potential wrestling advantage I think he may have – essentially no confidence though.
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On DraftKings, this one feels a bit boom or bust and it will partially depend on how these fighters choose to attack.
At times, we’ve seen Frevola go absolutely nuts, where he’s kill or be killed. In that type of scenario, I’d be pretty confident that someone would get hurt early, and it would be a spot I’d want to invest in.
If these fighters attack more cautiously, we could see a clear bust.
The fight itself is -210 to end inside the distance, and with mid-range prices, I suppose it’s worth chasing a bit.
Frevola is priced at 8.3k and he’s a solid upside target given his recent fighting nature. He’s produced some big early finishes and scored 115, 105 and 158 in his last three victories. He’s +165 to win ITD here which is pretty strong.
Nelson is priced down to 7.9k and may honestly be my preferred target. Thinking about it a bit more, when Frevola loses, it’s generally very dominant. Frevolva has failed to win six UFC fights, and in those fights, he’s been knocked down seven times, suffered four official KO losses, and he was taken down 10 times in one bout as well.
So although Nelson might just point strike and beat Frevola by decision, which would bust, I also do think an early KO is firmly on the table, just given Frevola’s bad historic durability.
Nelson is +165 to win ITD as well which is decent for the price. There’s a ton of variance in the matchup and nothing to feel particularly comfortable with, but I don’t mind being in on him a bit.
The easiest strategy is to split your exposure and not worry one way or the other, but for 7.9k, Nelson feels like a quality secondary target with finishing equity.
Frevola is in the same tier, and could be viewed the same. He also has wrestling upside where Nelson hasn’t been particularly strong on his back. Frevola may have zero interest in wrestling though.
If I had to choose, I’d rather be in on this fight than out, hoping for a finish on either side. I think I slightly prefer the value and price of Nelson but it’s not a strong take.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nelson by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Charles Jourdain vs. Davey Grant
Fight Odds: Jourdain -167, Grant +142
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Jourdain 8.7k, Grant 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Charles Jourdain’s rounding out his 7th year on the active roster and has been a hit or miss commodity. He’ll be making his 2nd appearance down at 135 after a successful weight class debut back in November over Victor Henry – he’s 7-7-1 in the UFC and 16-8-1 as a pro. Davey Grant’s one of the longer tenured bantamweights on the roster who’s rounding out his 13th year with promotion. He’s getting up there at the not so ripe age of 39 but has shown he can still go in his latter years, having won four of his last five fights – he’s 8-6 in the UFC and 15-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Jourdain’s shown to be an exciting guy and one of the more dynamic strikers around the fringe top 15 range. He’s fast, explosive and can fight out of both stances but prefers southpaw.
In that, he’s got power as well, finishing 9 of his 16 pro wins via strikes – he’s also got six knockdowns in the UFC.
One of Jourdain’s best components are his chopping leg kicks, he’ll tepe the body, will go upstairs and can mix it up in the clinch with elbows and knees.
In the UFC, his work rate has been consistently high, landing 5.4 SLpM at 49% and 5.7 DLpM at 44%.
He actually set a divisional round record of strikes in the 3rd against Burgos where he landed 84 significant strikes – unreal – that fight should have been a draw in my opinion.
Jourdain ultimately excels most when he can be the guy going forward and dictating the exchanges.
Defensively, he eats 4.3 SApM at 56% and 5 DApM at 60%. But he’s had some back foot struggles and with guys who can match/exceed his work rate.
Additionally, some guys have been able to have some bigger moments/periodic exchange success on him – most notably against Choi and Culibao – he has had some slower starts as well.
Jourdain is a guy that will keep a higher guard so he will block a lot of punches on his arms but unfortunately, that shelling type of defense doesn’t always optically look great even if you are blocking the shots – a lot of them tend to get through as well.
He has been dropped twice in the UFC to boot and hurt on other occasions as well, despite never being KO’d through 25 pro fights.
Overall, he’s a talented striker with positive differentials both significantly and at distance, but we’ve also just seen a wide array of Jourdain striking performances making the stand up in his fights tricky to assess.
Grant comes from a kickboxing background and has worked in a more hybrid approach over the years.
In certain fights, he will play the back foot but play the aggressor in others where his game is primarily centered around hooks and kicks, mainly to the legs.
He’s shown to keep a higher work rate over the years as well, landing 5.2 SLpM at 44% and 6.5 DLpM at 42%.
He reps the nickname of “dangerous” and he has been to a certain extent, scoring KOs in three of his eight UFC wins. We’ve also seen Grant strike competitively if not outland some quality strikers over the years in the likes of guys such as Vera, Martinez, Yanez and Marcos.
Defensively, he sits right at the divisional averages in both capacities eating 3.7 SApM at 55% and 4.5 DApM at 58%.
He’s a guy that’s definitely displayed his toughness over the years, having never been KOd but has also been dropped officially three times and hurt in other outings as well.
Grant’s been particularly susceptible to the jab and with effective pressure when opponents get on the inside – he’s also had issues with his nose and carries a decent amount of scar tissue, so he’s gotten busted up in multiple fights which hasn’t been the best optically.
His cardio has generally been a positive, but we have seen him slow down in certain extended fights as well.
Overall, Grant’s a gamer on the feet with an awkward style who isn’t an easy striking night at the office for many opponents despite approaching 40.
How it plays out: Off the top, Jourdain will realize a 1” height advantage but both guys will be at relative size parity. I don’t have a passionate opinion here as you have two pretty solid kickboxing archetypes that are consistent throw volume. But I do lean more towards Jourdain because despite both guys being tough, I think he has a bit more critical hit upside and is more consistent to target the head than Grant, despite both guys mixing up their attacks pretty well. In what profiles as a competitive striking fight, those two attributes are important.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Jourdain’s a BJJ black belt with six pro wins via submission – three of which are coming in his last four wins via guillotine – two of which over fellow black belts.
However, in the UFC, he’s only attempted 19 TDs (largely unsuccessfully) in nearly three hours of cage time, so wrestling isn’t something you can really bank on from him – his grappling success is generally reactionary.
Defensively, he’s had some struggles as he’s been taken down 28 times, only stuffing at 48% but hasn’t really been extensively controlled to his credit outside of the 2nd round against Burgos from a standing body triangle, a pocket of each round against Wood and early by Ramos.
This is largely because he’s scrambly and will look to threaten subs with his longer frame.
Guys just don’t want to mess around with it, so they tend to get out of there when he threatens but when guys want to hold him down in general, they do have issues.
He was submitted late via d’arce choke by Erosa though where he got a bit complacent and made a small mistake.
Nonetheless, in what tends to be competitive striking affairs for Jourdain, giving up TDs is still an issue despite showing some dangerous front chokes and a decent get up game.
In addition to Grant’s kickboxing background, he also began grappling in his teens and now reps a black belt in jiu jitsu.
Although, his wrestling success in the UFC has been sparing outside of a couple fights earlier on in his run against Popov (fraudulent Russian), a more youthful Marlon Vera in their first contest back in 2016 and a bit in round two of their rematch in 2021.
Statistically, he’s landing one TD per 15 minutes at 40% but only controlling his opponents for 13% of his overall fight time. So, while Grant is capable, it’s not something you can trust him to push with much regularity.
He did snag up a nice, inverted triangle against Assuncao a few fights back near the bell but that was a tad memey to me – he was 17 seconds away from dropping that fight.
Defensively, he’s had some struggles over the years, having been submitted in four of his seven losses albeit the last one came back in 2018.
In a more recent sample though, Vera found a lot of success on him in the back half of their rematch and landed a lot of GNP. Assuncao’s wrestling through the first couple rounds aided in Grant dropping those, a late 3rd round TD from Marcos may have swung the fight despite Grant working up, and he did drop round one last time out to Blackshear despite fighting hands well.
Overall, the macro still suggests that the ground is more of weakness than a strength for Grant when facing more capable grapplers as he only stuffs at 63%, but he’s not inept either and you can generally anticipate primary minutes on the feet in his fights.
How it plays out: As noted, both of these guys are base strikers but also have BJJ black belts in their back pockets. Process grappling is really never a point of emphasis for either guy and their control ratios are negative so I do anticipate a striking fight. That said, maybe Grant has a bit more TD upside but of the two, Jourdain is more live to submit.
Add this to the list of another dicey fight on this card. Grant has been the more “consistent” guy of these two recently but at the same time, it’s pretty difficult to ignore the age gap here where Jourdain will be 10 years his youth and probably fighting in his rightful weight class now. Obviously the age dynamic hasn’t mattered much for Grant as he’s still doing his thing, BUT he’s still at the carpet dropping age where everything can go downhill very quickly. While I think the fight profiles competitively on the macro, Jourdain has more upside in the matchup based on youth, speed and finish equity so he’s my pick to win.
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On DraftKings, I’m not super interested in this matchup as it profiles to be close, without a ton of grappling exchanges.
The fight as a whole is -160 to go the distance and if it does, I doubt either fighter is optimal.
Jourdain is my preferred target of the two at 8.7k because I think he carries more finishing equity. That’s backed up by his ITD line of +225 which isn’t strong for the price tag.
We’ve seen Jourdain win a handful of times ITD but what’s concerning is that in his last three finishes, he’s scored 88, 93 and 92 – two of those came in round one. So even with submission upside, he’s not a lock to hit a ceiling.
The real ceiling performances we’ve seen have come when he lands a ton of strikes and wins by TKO. I love that he builds throughout the fight and that’s always been one of my favorite aspects to his game. His chances of KOing Grant in that fashion don’t seem particularly high though.
Jourdain is an OK target but he’s more expensive than I’d like to pay. He still has some finishing equity and he’s a viable secondary target because of it. But I do think the most likely outcomes are that Jourdain doesn’t reach 100 points and doesn’t contend for the optimal.
Grant at 7.5k probably needs a competitive decision to win, which I wouldn’t expect to score super well.
I actually have to give him credit though because up until his last win, Grant had scored 89, 86, 89, 99, 101, 89 and 92 in his wins which is really strong. He fights at a solid pace and can wrestle a bit.
That fell off in his last fight though against Blackshear, where he only scored 57 in a win. He’s now +400 to win ITD here.
Part of me thinks that Grant is an OK option due to pricing, as 7.5k is cheap and Jourdain can fight at a moderate pace. Maybe Grant can land 100 sig. strikes and 1-2 takedowns, and score 85-90 points.
Another part of me just doesn’t love this matchup for him. He hasn’t landed more than one takedown in any of his last eight fights. He’d likely need that plus a lot of control to be really impactful.
It’s just not a spot I’d want to be too heavy on. I think for the price, Grant is OK because he has some win equity and could feasibly take a close decision. I’m not a big fan of his ceiling here and would only label him a lower-end target overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jourdain by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Bruno Silva vs. HyunSung Park
Fight Odds: Park -229, Silva +192
Odds to end ITD: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Park 9k, Silva 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential banger here between UFC veteran Bruno Silva and prospect HyunSung Park.
Silva was last seen in action getting the crap kicked out of him by Joshua Van. Before that, he lost by KO to Manel Kape. He was on a four fight winning streak before those matchups though.
Silva is generally a striker who will also mix in some takedowns.
Silva is an okay striker, but he doesn’t have the best volume either. He lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.81 in return. He defends strikes at 50 percent. He is an okay striker with some decent hands and moderate power. I still don’t totally love his output but I do think he hits kind of hard. I just consider Silva serviceable on the feet. He is nothing great but is alright and semi-dangerous. He will struggle winning rounds against any volume strikers though.
As a grappler, Silva is decent. He lands 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 8 takedowns per fight. He actually landed 3 takedowns on Dvorak and 4 on Tagir Ulanbekov. So he is capable of landing takedowns in this division.
Silva also generally seems like a tough guy and I consider his durability decent. He can be hurt but he is tough. I know he was knocked out in his last two matchups against Van and Kape. However, I will defend him. He had never been knocked out previously and those guys are elite. He also lasted until round 3 vs both of them. I think Silva’s durability may be getting a bit underestimated going into this matchup.
I also consider Silva a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at 60 percent but is physical and can work up and reverse position. He is a decent submission grappler as well.
The issue is Silva doesn’t thrive anywhere. He is just a serviceable fighter in all areas and that is about it.
Silva will be taking on HyunSung Park. Park is a Korean fighter who is 10-1 professionally. He is 29 years old. He won his first five UFC affiliated fights against poor competition. He then got a main event against Tatsuro Taira and got dominated. He was knocked down in round one. He was then taken down and submitted in round two. Taira is good though so no shame there.
I kind of just consider Park a bit of a generalist. He has a lot of submissions lately and he is a decent wrestler and back taker, and a decent athlete. He can land takedowns, take the back and threaten with back take submissions.
Park can also strike a bit and like I said he is a decent athlete and has some speed. I still don’t think he is a great striker and his volume isn’t super great, but he has some power and can hurt opponents.
I am still skeptical of Park though. He has actually been knocked down three times now and his competition hasn’t even been good. I think people who are automatically assuming that Park has a durability advantage over Silva are being a little too over confident. I honestly could see either of these guys hurting each other. Park has also never actually beaten a good striker before either. It wouldn’t be all that shocking if Silva does fine on the feet.
Furthermore, Park just got owned on the mat badly by Taira. I know Taira is a better grappler than Silva. However, Silva isn’t a bad grappler and landed 4 takedowns against Tagir. It really wouldn’t shock me if Silva has some offensive grappling success here either. Silva honestly is probably the more proven defensive grappler too.
So I am actually a little skeptical of the line. Silva may just win based on well-roundedness and experience.
I still do understand why one would pick Park. He is dangerous and younger and more athletic. Those things may just lead him to a win. The age honestly may be enough as Silva is probably not in his prime.
However, I don’t really expect Park to easily outgrapple Silva or outstrike him and Silva will probably compete in all areas. I am actually going to pick Silva here. I am just skeptical of Park. I think his defensive grappling and chin are potential issues and I am not even sure how good his striking is. His wins are just really poor. I will take the more proven fighter in Silva here to find a hole in Park’s game.
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On DraftKings, Park probably needs a finish to stand out at 9k.
I’m not totally sure what to make of Park. I thought he might have a chance versus Taira but he was completely dominated. His other wins have been over very mediocre competition, and Silva is probably a better round winner than him.
Silva has been hurt recently, and Park has also shown some grappling upside. He is a good athlete and powerful, so I think he carries finishing equity in a win.
Park is +115 to win ITD which is pretty solid, and he seems like a viable upside target. From a projection standpoint I don’t think Park is likely to dominate anywhere though, so he’ll probably just need 1-2 big moments and a finish to truly capitalize.
I’m not super excited to roster Park this week. I think he’s a fine secondary target based on finishing equity but I’m still having trouble valuing his skillset and he feels relatively boom or bust.
Silva at 7.2k is a viable underdog.
I’d be skeptical about rostering a lot of him as well, but he can probably compete in all areas here. He just doesn’t produce a ton of offense, and isn’t likely to dominate. Park has been knocked down three different times in his last five fights though, so Silva might have mild KO equity. Silva might have some grappling equity too.
Silva is only +350 to win ITD, but Park sketches me out defensively at this point. I’m not counting anything out here.
I don’t love Silva, but I think for this price tag, he could be a bit sneaky. His last two losses came against really legit competition that doesn’t compare to Park, so I could see this as a sneaky bounce back spot.
No need to go crazy here but I wouldn’t mind being slightly above market on Silva this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Danny Barlow vs. Djorden Santos
Fight Odds: Barlow -282, Santos +233
Odds to end ITD: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Barlow 9.2k, Santos 7k
Weight Class: 185
Coming off a hectic fight in his UFC debut, Djorden Santos will look to rebound against Danny Barlow, who also suffered his first defeat inside the Octagon.
Santos is now 10-2 professionally and coming off a crazy debut loss against Ozzy Diaz, where the two basically went to war for the majority of three rounds.
While Santos had a lot of success boxing and landed 131 significant strikes, he also gave up 135, and started to lose more exchanges toward the latter half of the contest.
Santos earned his contract on the Contender Series where he was a heavy +340 underdog. Of his 10 wins, three have come by knockout and four have come by submission. He’s a training partner of the Bonfim brothers.
In that DWCS bout, Santos was able to defend the takedowns coming from his opponent and simply outbox and outpace him over the duration. I think that’s the upside for Santos moving forward, and I view him as more of a round winner than a finisher at the UFC level.
Honestly, I think the best part of Santos’ game that I’ve seen is his defensive grappling. I really like the way he sprawls on shots, and he’s simply difficult to take down. His DWCS opponent was a strong wrestler and was only able to take him down twice on 15 attempts, but he still couldn’t manage any real control.
When I’ve seen Santos get taken down on the regional scene, he pops up very quickly so I am quite hopeful that he can control where the fight takes place against average wrestlers at middleweight.
He can also wrestle offensively himself, though I’m unsure of his exact BJJ credentials, he doesn’t look like a major threat to me on the ground. I would say that Santos at least has a path to victory on the mat and is likely a competent submission grappler, training with the likes of Gabriel Bonfim, but I wouldn’t expect him to easily submit or control any decent UFC level opponent.
Santos’ boxing is OK, and that’s where he had a ton of success on DWCS. Santos was ripping on his DWCS opponent, though it was clear his opponent had nothing really in return though, so it wasn’t exactly a war. I don’t think he’s an elite striker, nor is he a major knockout threat. Five of his last seven bouts have gone the distance, including his last four.
In the few regional fights I’ve been able to watch, Santos usually comes out hot and shows some very fast hands early in fights. He’s decent but I just don’t think he’s super effective which is why I rate him more as a volume based round winner.
I’ve also seen him slow down pretty notably in fights before, which is one major reason why he lost his only fight by decision in 2019, despite being the better fighter in that matchup.
That’s basically what happened in his debut as well. Santos was pumping the jab early and boxing at a really high rate, but he slowed down and started to get hit more.
On one hand, I don’t love absorbing 5.87 sig. strikes per minute. I don’t love slowing down. I don’t love the general lack of defense.
On the other hand, I still have to give Santos credit because he was landing strikes at a super high rate himself. He was willing to march forward, and despite getting hit a lot and hurt at the end, he hung tough in there.
I definitely think Santos can win fights based on his pacing, but without clear technical or defensive advantages, it’s going to be difficult for him to consistently pull ahead of opponents.
Barlow is now 9-1 professionally and suffered his first knockout loss at the hands of Sam Patterson in March. I wasn’t high on Patterson in that spot though I may have underestimated his threat on the feet.
Barlow was pressing forward in that matchup, doing well, and then just got caught with a hook and immediately hurt, where Patterson followed up for the finish.
Prior to that loss, Barlow was 2-0 with one win by TKO and one win by decision. He has five wins by knockout and three by decision, and he previously earned his contract on DWCS in 2023 with a one-minute KO.
Barlow made his UFC debut in 2024 against Josh Quinlan, and cleanly outlanded him at range for a couple rounds before knocking him down and finishing the fight in the third round.
It was the performance I was hoping for in that spot, as Barlow is very clean at distance with straight shots and a threatening kicking game, and he faced little to no adversity from Quinlan who failed to close the distance.
More recently, Barlow won a split decision against Nikolay Veretennikov, outlanding him for the first couple rounds before slowing down and losing the third.
Barlow is tall and long for this division, standing 6’2” with a 79-inch reach, fighting out of the Southpaw stance. He’s simply a decent kickboxer, who works better in a mid or outside game rather than in the pocket. I especially like his kicking, where he can attack multiple levels.
Barlow hasn’t always been a high-volume fighter but he was able to land 95 sig. strikes in 11 minutes in his UFC debut, which is a strong pace. If he’s able to keep distance, I think he can compete with much of the division and he’ll have a shot at damage as well. He did only land 47 significant strikes against Veretennikov though, in a much more tepid bout.
Grappling is where Barlow is theoretically weaker, which could play a role in this particular matchup.
Most of his fights have played out on the feet though, so there isn’t a major sample to work with. He has defended takedowns well at times, and I thought he stuffed the one nice shot that Quinlan attempted in that debut.
He was taken down on the regional scene though, and he gave up his back in that exchange, ultimately fighting out of the RNC where other fighters may have tapped.
I think it’s likely that Barlow may lose to a grappler moving forward, but he may not be horrid there. I’m hopeful just based on the way in which he sprawled to defend against Quinlan, though Quinlan isn’t very effective.
At this current time I will consider Barlow’s takedown defense “fine”, but it’s largely untested.
In this matchup, I have mixed feelings because Barlow is definitely a better technical striker than Santos. He’s also bigger than Santos, two inches taller and four inches longer. He’s also a Southpaw which I think could open up Santos to take a heavy dose of kicks.
The reason I have mixed feelings is because Barlow just got knocked out, and now he’s facing someone who will absolutely try to get in his face and land head strikes at a high rate.
Yes, Barlow is more technical and should also land strikes, and should also have the better chance to land big damage. But he hasn’t been the highest paced fighter in the world so by default, Santos can probably keep up with him in boxing exchanges. I’m not totally sure whether to write off Barlow’s durability, or whether I should be afraid of him getting hurt in the future.
I just kind of think there’s a lot of variance in a matchup like this one, so I’m hesitant to label Barlow a clear favorite and well deserving of a -300 price tag.
The most likely outcome in my mind is Barlow is able to control exchanges, be the more effective fighter, and possibly hurt Santos and knock him out. But I could also see rounds being annoyingly close here due to Santos’ willingness to throw volume.
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On DraftKings, Barlow is priced up to 9.2k and I think he’s a fine target, but probably a boom or bust one.
He will rate out well for finishing equity at -110 ITD, but I wouldn’t consider this a super easy fight, and I don’t think Santos will fold on the first shot landed.
Plus, Barlow has only scored 94 points in his lone TKO victory, so even with that kind of result, he’s not a guarantee to be optimal at 9.2k. His ceiling is better than 94 but it will likely take a first round KO, and he’ll still have to compete with this upper tier.
I’m lukewarm on Barlow this week. I think it’s a decent bounce back spot for him and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hurt Santos, but I still worry the window is thin for him to reach the optimal at his price.
Barlow is a solid play on paper for finishing equity but not a clear standout in my mind.
Santos a 7k has some viability.
Ultimately, he’s very cheap and strikes at a high rate, in what could be a matchup with some variance involved. It wouldn’t be a massive upset, and he has mild finishing equity at +400 ITD.
At the same time, he’s still a sizable dog against a good opponent. He doesn’t carry an insane ceiling without a knockout. There are other viable cheap targets this week.
Santos is only a low-end target. If he’s going to be unowned, I don’t think a sprinkle of exposure is a bad idea in larger fields, but it’s difficult to label him a priority in any format.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barlow by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Kyle Prepolec vs. Drew Dober
Fight Odds: Dober -424, Prepolec +336
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Dober 9.4k, Prepolec 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger here between UFC veteran Drew Dober and Kyle Prepolec.
Drew Dober is a pretty solid fighter. He is decently well-rounded and always fights hard. His strength is his striking. He lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.33 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t incredible metrics. However, he has fought some good guys, is battle tested, and is definitely a solid striker in this weight class.
Dober fights at a high pace on the feet. Dober has quick straight punches and packs some decent power. Eight of his last 10 wins have actually come by knockout.
His other two wins came by decision where he landed 60 and 145 significant strikes, respectively. I like Dober on the feet personally. He has KO equity and has volume upside as well.
Dober is historically tough as nails and has only been knocked out three times in 42 professional fights. That is pretty impressive durability given the battles that Dober has been in.
I still kind of worry about Dober’s durability now though. His knockout losses have all been very recent. He was knocked out against Matt Frevola. Furthermore, both Riddell and McKinney hurt him in recent fights. Both of those guys are dangerous so it wasn’t an awful look or anything. However, I do think the fact that Dober is simply hittable is what concerns me.
Dober also lost by doctor stoppage against Jean Silva as well. However, he wasn’t actually put out. Most recently, he was knocked out by Manuel Torres.
I can’t tell if I am overreacting here. The guys who are hurting Dober are seriously so dangerous. Torres, McKinney, and Silva are all SO dangerous. They can literally hurt anyone. However, Dober is still taking damage regardless which is what worries me. I think it is fair to say he is getting hurt by dangerous guys but it is also fair to say that his durability is declining as well.
Dober is an okay wrestler. He lands 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and can take down weak grapplers. He sneakily attempts about five takedowns per fight but is always fighting good wrestlers so he hasn’t dominated with grappling for a long time.
Dober defends takedowns at 56 percent. He has also been submitted four times in the UFC which is a concern. I do think Dober is at least competent defensively as a grappler though. He scrambles up from his back pretty well.
Dober will be taking on Kyle Prepolec. Prepolecc is a Canadian fighter and is 36 years old. He is 18-9 professionally.
Prepolec actually had a two fight stint in the UFC back in 2019. He lost decisions to Nordine Taleb and Austin Hubbard. The Taleb fight was a striking based fight where Taleb outlanded Prepolec 90-52 in significant strikes. Hubbard and Prepolec struck somewhat competitively but Hubbard landed three takedowns and obtained about six minutes of control.
Prepolec is basically a base kickboxer / striker. He stands out of the southpaw stance and is kind of a fighter who gets into range and touches his opponents up a bit, and will occasionally throw a big shot like a head kick. He does have some decent power kicks and he has won by knockout 10 times. I actually don’t think his striking is that bad. He is fairly technical. He was getting the better of Hubbard in their fight. I also consider Prepolec to be durable and he has never been knocked out. He also has decent cardio.
The issue is that Prepolec’s striking isn’t very good or special either. He is just not a great athlete and I question how dangerous he is vs any capable opponent. He has 10 knockouts but mostly against poor competition. He also doesn’t really grapple often so his offense is limited to tepid based striking fights where he needs to win by knockout or win a close decision.
Prepolec also has some defensive grappling issues. Hubbard had success and BSD beat Prepolec on the mat in Prepolec’s last fight. Prepolec can be taken down a bit. He will try to work up at times. I don’t think he is completely awful on the mat. However, Prepolec can get his guard passed and manipulated on the mat a bit. Good grapplers can surely beat him on the mat and take his back.
As far as this matchup goes, it is reasonable to favor Dober. He is WAY more experienced and is a better athlete and more physical than Prepolec. Prepolec has also never really beaten anyone very good either. The quality of competition difference here is huge. These two guys may start exchanging and Dober may just look way better.
I still think this line could be wide though. If this was Dober four years ago then I would consider this -500 line perfectly reasonable. However, Prepolec is really tough and has never been knocked out, and these guys are going to likely just bang it out standing. There is a chance that Prepolec just doesn’t get knocked out and gets to fight for 15 minutes here.
That could give Prepolec 15 minutes to strike competitively or just find Dober’s chin. Dober’s durability is seriously sketching me out and I think Prepolec has some unassuming and sneaky power. Prepolec can sneak in a random knockout shot or head kick. So I consider Prepolec live here and a knockout upset wouldn’t surprise me.
I still don’t think Prepolec is good and if I have to just pick a winner, it is Dober. This is a step down in competition for Dober and Dober may just show up the much better fighter which I tend to think will happen. I also think Dober has some sneaky takedown upside here too. So Dober is the pick but I think the KO upside for Prepolec is enough to avoid Dober at his line in parlays.
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On DraftKings, Dober is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k.
While I like the matchup for him, and consider him a dangerous knockout artist, he’s still a relatively boom or bust fantasy target.
My primary concern here is that Prepolec is tough, and has never been knocked out in 27 pro fights. So while I think Dober can get the job done, it’s difficult to be confident there and he’s only -135 to win ITD.
Dober can possibly score in the mid 80s or low 90s in an extended fight or in a decision win, but I doubt that will be enough to be optimal at this price tag. He needs a knockout most likely.
If he’s going to project as super chalk in the top range, I wouldn’t feel bad about coming in underweight. I’m guessing others in this range will soak up ownership as well though.
Ultimately, there’s no right or wrong answer here. It makes sense to target some Dober and having moderate exposure for finishing equity is totally viable. I do think he can win ITD. I’m far from certain it comes immediately, and if the fight extends and he fails to score 100 points, I really wouldn’t be surprised either.
Prepolec is priced down to 6.8k and is only a dart throw.
To be frank, I’m pretty worried about Dober. He had a long history of being durable and now he’s been badly hurt in a few of his recent fights. Prepolec will probably get to strike with him and he has some power. He’s +500 to win ITD
There’s just too much variance in MMA for me to think Prepolec has no chance, despite the likelihood he’s outclassed technically here.
If I had a large portfolio to work with, I think taking a few shots on Prepolec at single digit ownership makes sense. But in all likelihood, he will get picked apart for a length of time and possibly hurt, so he’s not worth a real investment with a smaller portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dober by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Stephanie Luciano vs. Ravena Oliveira
Fight Odds: Luciano -300, Oliveira +247
Odds to end ITD: +260
DraftKings Salaries: Luciano 9.3k, Oliveira 6.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually excited to see Stephanie Luciano fight again here against Ravena Oliveira.
Luciano has had an interesting start to her UFC career. She fought Talita Alencar on the Contender Series to a draw back in 2023. Luciano was outgrappled a bit in the first couple of rounds by Alencar and then in round three, she beat the breaks off of Alencar in a 10-8 round to even the fight. Luciano still showed some decent defensive grappling in that fight. She faced 24 takedown attempts and defended 20 of them.
Luciano then fought Alencar in a rematch in her UFC debut a year after the first matchup. I actually played Luciano because I liked a lot of what I saw in the first matchup from a defensive grappling perspective and thought a year would give Luciano time to improve her game. Luciano dominated Alencar in the rematch. Luciano completely shut down the grappling of Alencar. Luciano outlanded Alencar 72-41 in significant strikes and won a clean 30-27 decision.
In her last fight, Luciano lost a split decision to Sam Hughes. Luciano was taken down three times on eight attempts and controlled mildly in a round or two. I still thought Luciano looked decent in the matchup though and I arguably thought she won. It was close though. Hughes isn’t bad and Luciano still defended tds at times, won the striking exchanges for the most part, and showed good cardio again and won round three.
Luciano is 6-2-1 professionally and fights out of Brazil. She is 25 years old. She is basically a striker. I actually like her striking game a bit. She has some pretty good volume. She will throw a little bit of everything and mixes in straight punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. She likes to throw a lot of kicks from the outside and she will mix it to all levels. I would say straight punches and her kicking game from the outside are her bread and butter. She also seems to have good cardio and seems tough as well.
Luciano doesn’t wrestle a ton, but it looks like she can maybe take down weak grapplers and have a little success in top position. I do think her defensive grappling is pretty decent. The rematch against Alencar just showed that she has really improved her TDD. She also worked up super quickly the one time she conceded a takedown to Alencar which I loved to see. Hughes had some success vs Luciano but Luciano isn’t bad still defending takedowns at a solid 80 percent, and I honestly think her TDD isn’t even really that much of a weakness.
Overall though, I don’t mind Luciano. She is a decent volume striker and is young and improving. Her defensive grappling is serviceable and her cardio seems really good.
Luciano will be taking on Ravena Oliveira who has been out of action for two years since losing her UFC debut to Tainara Lisboa. Oliveira landed a couple of takedowns on Lisboa and won a round, but was taken down three times herself and lost the other two rounds. It was a pretty low level fight.
Oliveira is 7-2-1 professionally and 28 years old. Before her UFC debut, there wasn’t a ton of tape on her and she mostly fought random bums on the Brazilian regional scene. She only has two wins over opponents who have a single win on their record lol. She also only has one win over someone with a winning record. I guess she showed she can sort of compete at this level against Lisboa but overall, I am not too high on Oliveira.
Oliveira seems to just be a girl who will strike a bit in the pocket and throw some combinations, and then clinch up if she gets uncomfortable.
I don’t even really know how to stylistically break down her game because of the lack of footage, and because her only few fights I have seen have been a bit sloppy. In her extended regional fight, she basically stood in the pocket in a sloppy striking fight and would clinch up occasionally. Against Lisboa, they both would clinch and whoever happened to fall over would just lose the round on their back.
I tend to think Oliveira isn’t very good and she will look to strike a little bit and clinch a little bit, and is probably limited to beating very bad fighters in the UFC. I don’t think her striking looks super polished although she can throw some okay combinations. Her striking defense looks a bit suspect too. Her offensive wrestling doesn’t even look good either and she is prone to getting taken down and held down herself.
So I am not very sold on Oliveira. Maybe she can show me more than I am giving her credit for and maybe the time away has given her the opportunity to improve. However, I have a hunch she isn’t very good in general.
As far as this matchup goes, I just think Luciano is the more proven fighter and arguably better everywhere.
On the feet, maybe Oliveira can compete a little bit? However, I have never even seen her strike with a UFC level fighter before. Luciano is probably a mildly above-average striker for this weight class so my guess is that Luciano wins the exchanges and there is a good chance Luciano just dominates.
Maybe Oliveira can land some takedowns here? However, her wrestling doesn’t even look good nor does her control. Luciano is shutting girls down like Alencar and resisting Sam Hughes pretty well. My guess is Oliveira doesn’t have a ton of grappling success outside of a spot takedown landing or something or maybe a bit of clinch work. Perhaps I am wrong though.
I sneakily think Luciano can land takedowns too. She doesn’t always go to them. However, Luciano even took Sam Hughes down at the end of round three and took Alencar down late and beat her up. Oliveira looked bad off her back against Lisboa.
So overall, I am going with Luciano because she is a fighter we know is competent everywhere and is proven to be UFC level. Oliveira has really done nothing and hasn’t beaten anyone and doesn’t look to have a skillset where I can project her to have a ton of success against Luciano.
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On DraftKings, Luciano is pretty expensive at 9.3k, and feels difficult to prioritize.
The reality is she probably needs a knockout, which is not the outcome we’re going to predict at a high rate. Even in her UFC decision win in which she also landed a knockdown, Luciano only scored 74 DK points.
So despite having some volume upside, it won’t be enough. Maybe she has mild wrestling equity as well against Oliveira? I don’t know if that’s enough to fully dominate.
With an ITD line of +300, it’s tough to go out on a limb with Luciano at this price tag, and I expect she’ll be pretty low owned.
It seems clear that the trio of Dober, Barlow and Bekoev are better targets with easier paths to a ceiling, and so I’d choose to prioritize them, despite them also being somewhat boom or bust.
Luciano is ultimately just a contrarian target this week. It’s a low-level matchup so there will be ways for her to score, but she lacks real finishing and grappling equity on paper, and probably won’t find her way onto many of my lineups at this price.
Oliveira at 6.9k is possibly a viable cheap target.
I don’t think she’s a particularly good fighter, but she probably needs takedowns to win, and Luciano isn’t great from her back. So there’s at least a chance Oliveira can land 2-3 takedowns, and win a couple of rounds.
Oliveira likely won’t land a ton of significant strikes though, and she also lacks real finishing equity at +550 to win ITD. I don’t necessarily feel like investing much in her.
For this price tag, sure, you can sprinkle Oliveira in as she has a chance to score 80 in a decision win. I’d only consider her a low-end target though and she’s not someone I’ll roster much personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Luciano by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Azamat Bekoev vs. Yousri Belgaroui
Fight Odds: Bekoev -305, Belgaroui +250
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Bekoev 9.1k, Belgaroui 7.1k
Weight Class: 185
I’m interested to see the UFC debut of Yousri Belgaroui this weekend, a decorated kickboxer who’s competed against the likes of Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya. He won’t get an easy test against Azamat Bekoev though.
Belgaroui is 8-3 professionally in MMA, earning six wins by knockout and two by decision. All three of his losses have come by decision.
As noted Belgaroui is highly experienced as a kickboxer, and even beat Alex Pereira in 2017 before getting TKOd by him in the rematch. For what it’s worth, Pereira then brought in Belgaroui to train with him and that’s now the camp Belgaroui represents. He lost to Adesanya by decision twice as well.
Regardless, you can see the kickboxing background in his style. He’s super tall and long, and a real threat at distance where he can chop you down with kicks, box effectively, and mix in other tools like knees to land some damage.
He’s not a pure physical force, meaning that he’s not necessarily a one-hitter quitter type KO artist, but he can absolutely break guys down on the feet and he’s extremely comfortable there.
The issues as you might expect will come on the mat, where I don’t view Belgaroui as a super strong wrestler. He’s actually not terrible defensively, and being so tall, that helps keep him upright. But he can be grounded and he can lose on the mat.
Additionally, he has some tall man’s defense where fighters can crack him on the inside, and he’s liable to take damage. He doesn’t run from it, but essentially, he will absolutely crack guys at his range, but he’s more vulnerable on the inside.
Belgaroui lost on DWCS to Marco Tulio in 2023, giving up a couple of takedowns en route to a decision defeat. Tulio has looked legit in the UFC though. He then won by late TKO on DWCS again in 2024.
I actually like Belgaroui. His frame and background will help him for sure. He’ll probably lose to good wrestlers but he’ll be in some fun fights and I think he can mix in some solid wins too.
Azamat Bekoev is riding high off two dominant performances in the UFC, where he knocked both Zachary Reese and Ryan Loder out cold.
Bekoev took Reese down early and landed some ground-and-pound that ended the night quickly. Against Loder, he just cracked Loder’s chin early, who isn’t super skilled on the feet.
It’s a little difficult to assess because those wins don’t mean much to me. Reese is good, but one takedown and a couple of ground strikes usually isn’t enough to end the fight, though we’ve now seen Reese dead on multiple occasions. Loder isn’t really UFC level.
Bekoev is now 20-3 professionally fighting out of American Top Team, and he’s earned 10 wins by knockout and four wins by submission. He’s fought a decent level of competition coming from the Russian circuit and ACB promotion, and he won a few fights in LFA as well, where he was a champion.
Bekoev is fairly well-rounded, and I consider him a fine prospect who should be able to win fights at the UFC level. He’s a decent wrestler, with a capable takedown game, and his boxing is fine as well.
I’m just not sure he’s going to dominate in any one area. He will definitely be able to land takedowns and advance position, and against lower-level competition Bekoev will have finishing equity. I don’t consider him some elite submission grappler though.
On the feet, Bekoev is somewhat low volume, and he often works on the counter. He’s still pretty sharp, but he won’t run away with rounds.
He’s shown occasional brutal power, but I also wouldn’t label him a real knockout artist. I’ve also seen him hurt on occasion, though he’s typically able to fight through it. He’s lost some split decisions to Russians back in ACB and he also got caught with a submission late in a fight in 2021.
More recently, Bekoev beat ex-UFC fighter Dylan Budka by split decision for the LFA title in a fight that went five rounds. Budka actually dropped him early, but Bekoev hung tough and was able to outwrestle Budka down the stretch.
Budka isn’t very good, unfortunately, so the fact that the fight was competitive at all makes me nervous. However, Budka looked better there than he did in the UFC in terms of cardio, and I thought it was good to see Bekoev go the full five rounds as well.
Overall, Bekoev is pretty decent and I expect his success will primarily come in the form of takedowns. He’s not an easy guy to produce offense against and he should cruise through the lower levels of the organization. I would expect he’ll hit a ceiling once he reaches the the mid and upper levels of middleweight though.
For this matchup, I actually think it’s a great fight and potentially one of the better fights on the slate.
While Bekoev has looked phenomenal, it’s come against meaningless competition and he’s only totaled six minutes of cage time where he’s faced no real adversity.
Now he gets a decorated kickboxer in Belgaroui who is massive, standing 6’5” with a 79 inch reach. Bekoev is 6’0” with a 72 inch reach, so Belgaroui will tower over him.
Given how I described Belgaroui, it will be up to Bekoev to close distance here because if he doesn’t, I think he loses. Belgaroui is very effective at his distance, he can chop legs, land damage, and he should have a real chance of hurting Bekoev here.
I do think Bekoev could land a big shot of his own, but in a pure kickboxing fight, I would favor Belgaroui.
Bekoev is still favored because he has the additional wrestling path to win, which might be enough and he may make it look easy. He is a quality wrestler and projecting him for some wrestling success makes sense.
I do worry sometimes when we get these kinds of matchups where the opponent is so tall. Sometimes they are deceptively difficult to take down. Belgaroui did lose to Tulio on the mat but he defended 6/8 takedowns and sits at 81 percent defensively as of now.
So I’m not sure this is a one attempt and the fight is over type of thing. Bekoev may need to shot a lot, and over multiple rounds to get the job done. While the path is there, any time the fight is standing, Belgaroui will be live.
In some ways, the fight feels binary to me where Bekoev wins on the mat and Belgaroui wins on the feet. It’s fair to favor Bekoev as the more credentialed wrestler, but I think Belgaroui is pretty live here as he’s actually very skilled at distance and has massive size advantages in this matchup.
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On DraftKings, I do like this fight given the binary nature.
Bekoev is priced up to 9.1k and I wonder how chalky he will be, coming off two big wins that scored 124 and 114. With another wrestling path here, as a big favorite, he could be very popular.
I do understand it, as grappling scores well and if Bekoev wins, he’ll likely land 2-3 takedowns, earn 5+ minutes of control and land a bunch of ground strikes. He’ll carry finishing equity as well at -115 to win ITD.
I don’t think his ceiling is necessarily what we’ve seen thus far though. Both of those wins were total domination with early finishes and lots of strikes accrued. One-way traffic. Bekoev can still get to 100-110 with a ground based finish but I’m not sold this one is as easy.
I’m probably not aiming to take a real stand here. I could argue coming in underweight given the question marks of the matchup, and I don’t consider Bekoev a lock to smash. He could be more popular than he’s worth. At the same time, his path to victory likely comes in a manner that scores DK points, so I could see him contending for the optimal in a win once again.
Belgaroui is a dog I’m willing to play at 7.1k.
The biggest issue is that he could get held down, and win a close kickboxing fight where he lands 80 strikes and scores 60 DK points. So his ceiling isn’t guaranteed, which therefore makes it tough to recommend.
At the same time, if he can keep the fight standing, I do think he has knockout equity. He’s +300 to win ITD which is OK for the price.
He should also carry leverage against Bekoev, and he’s also super cheap, so there are some additional benefits.
It makes sense to consider Belgaroui a low-end target given the tough matchup, but I wouldn’t mind being a bit above the field here and he might be a little bit sneaky given the public perception of Bekoev.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bekoev by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Melissa Croden vs. Tainara Lisboa
Fight Odds: Croden -124, Lisboa +106
Odds to end ITD: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Lisboa 8.4k, Croden 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Melissa Croden’s a Canadian national who had her first amateur fight back in 2016 so she’s been grinding the regionals for quite a few years now, finally getting the call up – she’s 6-2 as a pro. Tainara Lisboa’s had an interesting run as she got the call to the UFC in her 30s a few years back, but she hasn’t been a very active fighter throughout the course of her career. She made good on her first two UFC appearances but spent two years on the shelf due to a knee surgery and looked poor in her return – she’s 7-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Crowden’s a pretty big 135er standing 5’9” with a 69” reach.
It’s still a bit difficult to put an official stamp on her striking and who she actually is, because I’ve seen variable approaches from her over the years.
Specifically in her fights with Martins and Cavalcanti she played a more methodical mid-range game which ultimately didn’t work out for her. In her defense, those are not bad losses – the Martins’ fight was close and Cavalcanti’s now undefeated in the UFC.
However, she’s been more aggressive in her last two fights and specifically prioritized a clinch game where she did some pretty nasty work to both Lehner and Deen, finishing both.
I’m hoping that’s something that will be more transparent going forward with her because while I don’t think she’s a bad distance striker and does some things well mechanically, she’s a bit rigid, not the fastest girl and can be hittable.
Lisboa comes from a muay thai background where she’s a 2x world champion in the discipline.
She actually fought Valentina Shevchenko in both disciplines back in 2010 but lost decisions – no shame obviously considering Shevchenko was like 55-1 between muay thai and kickboxing.
Our overall footage on her is limited generally but also ironically on the feet as well.
In the bit that we do have, she’s shown aggressive components at times, respectable straight punches in closing distance and a decent clinch striking game as per her base between knees and elbows.
Despite not having any KO wins at distance, she’s definitely shown some pop on her shots.
It was in her 1st pro fight back in 2016 against the now UFC fighter Norma Dumont where she was actually winning the striking exchanges in that fight, albeit sloppily.
She’s also been able to get the better of the exchanges in all of her fights I’ve been able to view and was able to hurt Clark twice in her debut.
Defensively, she still hasn’t faced extensive volume back her way or just having much distance time in general where it’s hard to make definitive claims – in what I’ve seen, she’s a bit plodding and linear in her approach along with little head movement but seems like a tough girl.
But projection wise, she does appear to be a girl that will have “rock em sock em” elements.
Overall, I think Lisboa has some physical elements to her stand up where her shots take an impact but I still don’t think we’re dealing with a world beater and she has defensive flaws.
How it plays out: The striking is a little rocky to call just given sample. Both girls are pretty solid in the clinch so I’ll be curious to see who gets the better of those exchanges. At distance, neither are particularly high volume fighters with some hittable tendencies. I do think Lisboa’s a bit quicker of the two girls though.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Croden’s a more recently crowned BJJ brown belt but only reps one pro win via submission which was a fight I wasn’t able to view.
In the wider past, she hasn’t really been a proactive wrestler but it’s been in the last couple fights when she’s going to the clinch more that she’s been able to muscle some girls down.
While I don’t think it’s the most technical thing in the world, she’s been ruthless when she’s gotten on top and is definitely a fighter that prioritizes GNP over SUB despite her credentials.
Defensively, she was taken down a couple times in the Martins fight and did get back taken briefly but was able to work up – outside of that, she hasn’t really been shot on much so assessing her as an overall defensive floor commodity is a bit difficult at this point.
Overall, I’d like a larger sample of Croden before making any super definitive claims but if she can replicate what she’s shown in her last couple fights, she’s not an opponent girls will want on top of them.
Despite the base striking background of Lisboa, we’ve actually seen more of her on the ground as she’s been able to drag girls down from body locks or thai positions.
When on top, she’s been strong in looking to pass and gain dominant positions. From there, she’s been able to secure a few arm triangles and some GNP finishes.
She received her BJJ purple belt as well back in 2023 and scored a nice RNC late in her debut against Clark.
With all of that being said, the girls she’s been running have really had no concepts of a ground game and her arm triangle set ups have been sloppy.
Nonetheless, it’s still encouraging to see a base striker with limited MMA experience to have some semblance of an offensive ground game.
But it was in her loss to Dumont (who’s a brown belt now) where she wasn’t able to get her down, Dumont got to her back, dragged her down and RNC’d Lisboa without much issue.
Her TDD has looked decent in some spots but she’s also kind of just fallen over in a few of these tie ups where she specifically spent more extended time on her back in the 3rd rounds – she did threaten Clark with a viable armbar attempt but has shown some guard playing elements now where I have some concern with her conventional get ups specifically in the open mat – she’s used the fence well in the past though.
She’s coming off getting dumpstered by Santos in the grappling though where the TDs came fairly easy going 2/2, racking up 8 minutes of control and eventually submitted her with a keylock While Santos is a black belt, getting keylocked in 2025 is a pretty bearish indicator for where a fighters defensive grappling is truly at.
Overall, Lisboa’s a capable ground fighter showing some offensive upside but once again, it’s coming against girls who are either terrible or have historically struggled on the mat so I’m not sure how meaningful it is – I also now have real defensive hesitations and she can get stuck on the fence for periods.
How it plays out: The ground is also somewhat interesting as I don’t think either are particularly good technical wrestlers but will be stronger from top positions should they get there. I would side to giving Croden more upside just in the sense that she may be the more physical fighter who’s also the better grappler on paper – there’s also just been more concerning things with Lisboa’s TDD and when she’s on the bottom.
This is a bit of a tricky fight to benchmark as neither girl has a lot of pro MMA experience, both are in their mid-30s so they’re not young, their wins are over lower level girls but conversely have respectable losses. Ultimately, it’s tough to call but I suppose I’ll take Croden in what’s a high-variance fight.
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On DraftKings, this is likely to be an awful fight between two really low-level fighters.
Honestly, watching early tape on Croden I’m thinking this girl has no business being near professional MMA. Her more recent footage is better. But then you watch Tainara and her last loss was really horrid, she looked completely incompetent on the bottom to the point that I now have to side with Croden winning.
Lisboa is actually priced up to 8.4k but she’s now the sitting underdog as Croden has taken some action this week. Assuming that holds, she’ll be a very low-end target and may be one of the lowest owned fighters on the entire slate.
I thought she had mild grappling upside in her last matchup but ultimately, her two wins in the UFC have scored 82 and 76. She’s now +375 to win ITD which feels high, and I have almost no interest.
I guess she can still win the fight, but I’d expect it to be close, and I just don’t see a way she dominates here and easily clears out the rest of this range. She may possibly be sub 10 percent owned publicly which is worth noting as she will fit into the contrarian mold, but she’s not a contrarian target I’m fond of.
I’d be fine fading Lisboa this week. She’s overpriced and doesn’t set up well to hit a ceiling, with the only intriguing part of her profile being the low public ownership.
Croden at 7.8k will be a value target, and it remains to be seen how strong of a value target she is, which will depend on where the betting line will close.
For now, the fight is a near pick’em meaning that Croden isn’t a dramatic value. Some of her fights make me think she’s not a strong fantasy target either, where she likes to kick at distance which is completely ineffective.
However, her recent fights where she’s clinching, grappling, and landing ground-and-pound give me some hope. Especially in this matchup where Lisboa just looked lost on the feet. If Croden gets on top of Lisoba, she might do some damage.
She’s actually +275 to win ITD which isn’t terrible for the price and for this kind of matchup. I really think the only way she stands out is with top control time and ground strikes, but that is possible here.
It’s hard to label Croden a great play, I highly doubt she has longterm success in this sport. But there’s at least a path to a decent score for the price and if her betting line increases, the value on her DK price will interest me to a degree.
I’d label Croden a solid secondary target overall, though it’s not a matchup I feel very safe with.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Croden by Decision (Confidence=Low)